First off, let's assume that Crosby comes back to play the rest of Pitts remaining games this season.  If he continues on his PPG average, he would finish the year with about 96 points, which would put him at 318 points in 230 games. 

Through Gretzk'y first 3 season, he had 513 points in 239 games. 

So Crosby is only 200 points behind Gretzky after 3 seasons. 

If Crosby was to continue his current PPG average(1.38), he would need another 1863 games.  If Crosby didn't miss another regular season game, he would break Gretzky's record some time through his 26th season.  He would be 53 years old when he broke Gretzky's record. 

All I can say is that is HIGHLY unlikely. 

Guest9934 ( )

Posted - 02/17/2008 : 12:30:27

yah not even close

In the great one's era, it was common to have over 100 pts in a year,. Now very few reach that milestone and anything over 120 pts in cosidered an amazing season, pts are much harder to come by now then 20-25 yrs ago. 

This is too simple of a question to answer at this time, unless something dramatically changes like hockey were to go 4 on 4 or something along those lines to make goal scoring increase dramatically would Crosby will never break #99's records. 

Just to touch on this, a 100 point season is impressive in any era.  There have only been 101 players in NHL history to have 100 or more points in a season.  It has happened 259 times.  The first was by Mr. Espo in 68-69, so the other 258 times is from the past 40 years. 

Players with Only 1-100 points Season- 46Players with Only 2-100 point Seasons-23Players with Only 3-100 points seasons- 9Players with 4 or More 100 Point season-23

There are only 2 players with 10 or more 100 points seasons.  One's name is Wayne(15 total, 13 consecutive), and the other is Mario(10).  Dionne is up there is 8, Bossy and Statsny have 7 each, and there is a log jam of 9 players at 6 including Mr. Orr who had the most of any D-man.  Pretty sick considering that era and that he only played 9 seasons! 

Of the 259 times, 118 of them (45%) occured in the 80's, which should not be a surprise to anyone. 

However, in today's NHL, between 96/97 and 06/07, there have only been 24 occurances of the 100 point season.  In 92-93 alone, there were 21 occurances of the 100 points season. 

What does all this mean for this thread???  It is even more unlikely for Crosby to come close to Gretzky's records, let alone break them. 

To this point, in the 89 NHL seasons ending 06/07, there are only 71 player that have more than 1000 points.  How many players have more than 1,500 career points??  Try 12.  And one final fact, Looking only at the 71 players with 1000 or more points, Gretzky had more than double the points of 59 of them.  We are talking about the elite of the elite of NHL offensive players, and Gretzky lapped them. 

I don't think people quite understand how unfathomable Gretzky's all time point record is. 

(As a side note, please do not take this as me talking about how great WG was.  All I am trying to do it put into perspective how huge the number is.  Always remember, Gretzky was not good because of his stats.  Like any player, stats are simply a symptom of their talent and the talent around them)

Having a long career is one thing, having a long career, and at the top of your game, or the league is another. 

I am not sure if a lot of thought goes into the fact that a player at the top of his game for 10 out of 15 seasons would seem reasonable.  For a player to top Gretzky's records, unless they add the 3rd, and 4th assists is mind boggling, as Beans has shown the math.  This player would have to be on the top of his game, and the league for 25 out of 30 seasons??? 

Chelios is a player who has managed to play a lengthy career.  His best seasons are well behind him.  73 points in the late 80's, and early 90's are his best offensive efforts.  He now manages to get less than 20 points a season??? 

I am sure someone will come along that is an exceptional talent, but if they cannot put up 200 point seasons then Gretzky's record is safe...