Democrats are organizing in Michigan earlier than ever to stop President Donald Trump from taking the state again in 2020. 

Michigan Democratic Party Chairwoman Lavora Barnes said the goal is to build a stronger, more permanent political machine to hit the ground running when the party chooses its presidential nominee.  The organizing effort is based on lessons learned from Hillary Clinton’s surprise loss in 2016. 

“We’ve not had, frankly, the wherewithal to do this before,” Barnes said. “ We also have always tried to do some off-year organizing, but this large scale is unprecedented.  It’s really about not taking any voters for granted or any part of the state for granted, recognizing that we have to get out there and make our case all over.” 

The Democratic National Committee dispatched field organizers to Michigan and built a program to train 45 students from Michigan universities as part of its pre-2020 strategy.  Democrats other independent organizations also built a “war room” communications team to highlight the president’s “broken promises” to Michigan voters. 

Democrats launched an eight-week student training program, known as Organizing Corps 2020, in Michigan and six other battleground states this summer.  The program creates a pipeline for college juniors and seniors to enter full-time paid campaign jobs working to register voters and inform residents of recent changes to Michigan voting procedures. 

Republicans are also touting an unprecedented effort to organize in Michigan before the general election.  During a visit in Lansing last month, Trump 2020 campaign National Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany said Republicans must work harder because Democrats won’t underestimate Trump’s chances of victory. 

Michigan Republican Party Chairwoman Laura Cox said Trump started his re-election campaign “the moment” after being inaugurated in 2017, which she expects will pay off next year for other races down the ballot.  Republicans hosted 74 training sessions across the state, attended by 1,400 volunteers who will be deployed as full-time staff. 

“We’re starting very early, we’re talking to our volunteers to give them the skills and tools to be able to reach out to so many more folks early," Cox said. “ Time is very important in a campaign.” 

The extra time is paying off when it comes to fundraising.  Trump has $56.7 million to spend on his campaign as of July 30, more than doubling the haul of the top-raising Democratic candidate competing with more than two dozen other contenders. 

McEnany said the GOP is undertaking the most robust organizing effort in recent political history, informed by a 100-page autopsy of how its 2012 campaign strategy failed when Mitt Romney lost his presidential bid.  The Republican National Committee spent more than $300 million building its data analysis and ground game operation since, which continues to drive the party’s strategy in 2020. 

Twenty primary contenders descended on Detroit last month to participate in two nights of debates.  The state party remains in close contact with campaigns of presidential hopefuls, many of whom visited Michigan early in 2019. 

Early primary polls of likely Michigan voters show Trump losing in hypothetical matchups against the top-tier of Democratic primary contenders.  Barnes said she’s not putting much faith in those numbers. 

“I’m trying my best to ignore the polls” Barnes said. “ It is way too early to rest on polling data to make us feel better about anything.  We all know this is all going to change as we get closer to the actual election.” 

Democrats staff up in Michigan

Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win Michigan since 1988, but the victory was decided by only 10,700 votes.  Obama won Michigan by nearly 450,000 votes in 2012. 

Many of Michigan’s communities swung between both parties during the last three elections.  Michigan has 77 cities and townships that voted for former President Barack Obama in 2012, then Trump in 2016 and Democrats again in 2018. 

The Democratic strategy includes winning back some of the white working-class voters who helped send Trump to the White House while also driving turnout among black voters who stayed home or voted third-party in 2016.  A DNC spokesperson said Democrats will place a heavy emphasis on engaging communities of color. 

This interactive map shows Michigan’s cities and townships based on 2016 vote totals for Trump compared to Hillary Clinton.  Darker colors represent larger margins of victory.  Click on a community to see the underlying data. ( Scott Levin / MLive)

Barnes, who ran former President Barack Obama’s 2012 Michigan reelection campaign, said there are a dozen full-time staff working across the state.  Twenty staff will be sent to 10 offices established by the end of the year in places like Detroit, Flint, Lansing, Benton Harbor and Macomb County, she said. 

The party wants more than 100 organizers working from 50 offices by 2020.  The Michigan Democratic Party hired a full-time digital organizer and a full-time African American outreach director to engage communities of color. 

“We will fan out across the state, starting in population centers and going out from there,” Barnes said. 

During the July debates in Detroit, the DNC held an event for Seat at the Table, a program to engage African American women.  The DNC also established a website, IWillVote.com, to help citizens easily determine whether they are registered to vote. 

The state party is partnering with a voter rights imitative launched by former Georgia state Rep. Stacey Abrams.  A full-time voting rights director was hired in Michigan as part of Fair Fight 2020, a program to educate voters and advocate for election reforms in 20 states. 

Democratic turnout in 2016 was down 11.5% compared to 2012, so the state Democratic party is confident it can take back Michigan by boosting turnout among its base. 

Democrats are encouraged by successes in last year’s midterm elections, where voters in Trump counties voted for Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Democrats flipped two formerly Republican U.S. House seats. 

This interactive map shows Michigan’s cities and townships based on 2018 vote totals for Democrats on the statewide ballot compared to Republicans. ( Scott Levin / MLive)

Barnes led a grassroots re-engagement effort in all 83 counties prior to the 2018 midterms.  DNC officials said the outreach plan is being used as a “playbook” for 2020. 

“There is room for us to grow because of what happened to us in 2016 and conversations that we didn’t have about the consequences of not voting against Donald Trump, the consequences of not getting out to vote,” Barnes said. “ Those are conversations we have to have this cycle and it has to be an ongoing conversation about how important this vote is.” 

The Trump campaign is launching organizations to boost support among African Americans, Hispanics and suburban women, three key demographics.  Michigan 11th District GOP Chair Meshawn Maddock joined the national women’s outreach team after launching a similar grassroots group in the state. 

Trump supporters targeted

Democrats are keeping their message focused on Trump’s failure to uphold his campaign promises. 

“There is a swath of the electorate that needs to be reminded they may have supported or voted for this president because of expectations that have not been met,” Barnes said. 

DNC Chairman Tom Perez echoed that point during a press conference across the street from a General Motors plant set to close in Warren.  Perez noted Trump promised no Michigan plants would shut down under his administration. 

The president aggressively campaigned in the Midwest on keeping manufacturing plants open and renegotiating international trade agreements he blamed for hollowing out industrial communities. 

“If I’m elected, you won’t lose one plant,” Trump said at a Warren rally in 2016. “ You’ll have plants coming into this country.  You’re going to have jobs again.  You won’t lose one plant.  I promise you.” 

In a statement, General Motors emphasized employees affected by the plant’s closure have the opportunity to transfer to other facilities in Michigan.  GM said 60 employees out of 262 affected were transferred as of July 30. 

Two outside organizations are stepping forward to highlight Trump’s “broken promises” in Michigan. 

American Bridge launched a $50 million program to persuade small-town voters in swing states about the danger of a second Trump term.  The group is releasing a series of articles on American Ledger, based on local reporting, showing the impacts of Trump’s policies on communities that supported him in 2016. 

“Our whole goal here is to cut down Trump’s margins for his core supporters,” said American Bridge Trump War Room Communications Director Jeb Fain. “ We’re targeting his voters." 

Fain said the effort to cut into Trump’s base is an “equally essential” strategy to complement the DNC’s effort boost turnout among Democrats. 

Priorities USA, a Democratic super PAC started to support Obama’s 2012 campaign, also launched a digital communications program in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to push back against Trump’s economic message.  A two-person in-state team will work with local organizations to collect stories from people who are worse off under the Trump administration. 

Meanwhile, Republicans are focused on highlighting the flourishing economy, low unemployment figures and job growth.  Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Democrats have little to offer American workers during a Detroit event. 

A July poll conducted by Glengariff Group for Detroit Regional Chamber shows a majority of Michigan voters have a positive view of the economy under Trump. 

Cox pointed to big money investments announced by Michigan’s Big Three automakers as evidence of Trump’s impact in Michigan.  GM, Ford and Fiat Chrysler are all planning to expand factories, build new production facilities and add thousands of jobs in Michigan. 

Manufacturing job growth continued an upward trend since 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Since Trump took office, average monthly manufacturing employment increased by 29,600. 

Unemployment in Michigan dropped from 5% in 2016 to 4% in 2018, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

Trump frequently touts job growth while on the campaign trail.  He celebrated low unemployment statistics at a rally in Pennsylvania Tuesday, but Barnes said the figures don’t tell the whole story. 

While economic opportunities have opened up, Barnes said Trump’s divisive rhetoric on race hasn’t endeared him to people of color.  Barnes said Trump is tearing the country apart. 

“I think that if that team on the other side had spent any time in the black community they would know folks continue to fight to make ends meet and continue to not feel secure in their jobs,” Barnes said. “ You cannot separate the economy from the hate and vitriol being tossed at communities of color all over this country.” 

Barnes said Democrats are looking for a uniter, but anti-Trump messages alone won’t win the election.  She said candidates should come back to Michigan often and talk with voters about kitchen table issues like health care, infrastructure, protecting the Great Lakes and growing jobs. 

“I do know the work we’re doing is paying dividends,” Barnes said. " Voters are hearing from the party earlier and more often, and that’s how we make the difference in 2020.”