The impact that a no-deal Brexit could have on driving licences, passports and phone bills will be spelled out as the government releases a batch of papers on Thursday warning of the risks of crashing out of the EU. 

A sudden exit would mean the mutual recognition of driving licences automatically ending, causing a headache for the 11,600 lorry drivers who cross the Channel each day, as well as car-driving tourists. 

On passports, there have been warnings that Britons travelling abroad with less than six months to expiry could be stopped at the border of an EU member state, when they would previously have been let through. 

Cross-border mobile phone bills could soar in the event of a no-deal Brexit if the phone companies pass on the costs of higher roaming and data charges that would follow. 

The papers will be published after Theresa May chairs a special meeting of the cabinet focused on how a no-deal outcome could be handled. 

The Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, said he believed the no-deal papers were “part and parcel of our sensible, pragmatic approach to preparing for all outcomes”, but added: “Getting a deal with the EU is still by far and away the most likely outcome.” 

Papers on driving licences, passports and mobile phone roaming are among the 30 or so technical notices the government will release after the cabinet’s three-hour meeting. 

Raab also confirmed the government would withhold a “very substantial” part of the £39bn divorce bill agreed with the EU if no deal could be reached. 

“We would always be mindful of our strict legal obligations, but we wouldn’t pay the quantum which is currently under the withdrawal agreement,” he said. 

Asked how much the government was threatening to withhold, Raab said: “I’m not putting a number on it.  It is not a threat, it is a statement of fact as part of our no-deal planning. 

“Yes, we would be mindful of our strict legal obligations, but the amount and the phased way it is set out in the withdrawal agreement would fall away because there would be no deal. 

“There is a very significant substantial difference between our strict legal obligations and the negotiated settlement as part of the withdrawal agreement arrangements.” 

The Brexit secretary said the government hoped enough MPs would back a deal based on the Chequers plan, out of fear of the alternative. 

“There will be a binary choice between a deal and no deal and I believe that will focus minds,” he said. 

The papers being released on Thursday are an attempt to show Britain is seriously planning for a no-deal Brexit in order to strengthen its negotiating hand with Brussels, although May has repeatedly said she would prefer to strike a withdrawal deal with the EU by November, which would then have to be ratified by parliament. 

A first batch released last month revealed Britons could be liable for higher credit card charges in case of a no-deal Brexit on 29 March2019. 

The second set of risk assessments are also expected to touch on security concerns, with papers expected on firearms and precursor drugs.  But a paper on aviation that had been anticipated, with warnings planes could be grounded in an extreme scenario, is not due to appear. 

Ministers have previously indicated each batch of no-deal papers will raise more serious issues than the one before.  At least one further set of papers will be published. 

Polling released on Thursday by YouGov and the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe found 53% of the British public now think a no-deal Brexit is more likely than an agreement, but only about 43% of voters believe there will be substantial disruption as a result.