Electoral reform

A former member of the Federal House of Representative, Prince Ned Nwoko, has congratulated Prince Ike Uche Secondus, as the New National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP).  Prince Ned Nwoko who is aspiring to contest for Delta North Senatorial ticket. 

Prince Ned Nwoko is the promoter of Stars Private University in Idumuje Igboko, Delta State.  He advised the new PDP chairman to use his new office to promote unity and fair play within the party. 

He described Chief Secondus as “Total Chairman”, and urged the new PDP helmsman to enthrone internal democracy within the fold. 

In s statement issued in his Maitama home, Abuja, Prince Nwoko said: “I want to congratulate the elected National Chairman of our great party; PDP, other elected Officials, the other Leader of the party, the Chairman of the organising Committee; Governor of Delta State, Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa and his members, the delegates and every member of our great party on the successful conclusion of the elective convention, held yesterday, the 9th of December, 2017, at Abuja. 

“It is therefore, my prayers that, the almighty God, shall direct the steps of the Chairman and the other elected Officials, in their avowed determination to enthrone internal democracy and the repositioning of the party towards achieving the desired overwhelming victory in the 2019 general election. 

No fewer than 25 political parties and their candidates out of the 37 in total who fielded candidates for the November 18 governorship election have opted to adopt a sole candidate ahead of the poll. 

Their move to support one candidate for the election became necessary, according to them, in order to defeat the so called big parties. 

The development arose out of what some Interparty Advisory Council (IPAC) members and their candidates in the election, described as intimidation from the self-acclaimed big parties and their candidates, have continued to shun their programmes. 

The self-acclaimed big parties that boycotted the IPAC activities were listed as the ruling All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC), and United Peoples Party (UPP). 

IPAC member parties and their candidates accused them of shunning the recent debate organised by the Interparty Advisory Council, while it was alleged that they never cared to communicate with the organisers on the reason for their absence. 

A source spoke on condition of anonymity, because he he was not authorized to speak to the media on the development, disclosed that the over 25 parties who participated in the debate entered into series of meetings after the governorship debate session where idea came on the dare need for them to seek ways to work together by pulling their human and fiscal resources into backing one candidate who has the capacity to give the self-proclaimed mega parties a good fight and eventually defeat them at the forthcoming election. 

“This will be likened to the case of Goliath and David in the Bible where the so-called mighty fell to the neglected.  The five mega parties, most especially the APGA, PDP and APC, look at us as if we are pretenders in the race. 

“But they failed to realise that politics is still a game of numbers.  If we play our cards well and drop selfish considerations aside, our coalition will defeat all those parties some people erroneously think are the real contenders.  It will surprise them when we do it” the source said. 

Asked if it was not an obvious gang up for the sake of wrestling political power, the source said, “No, it’s a determination to rescue Anambra and make the lives of our people better. 

“There is so much suffering in the land because of bad governance and we have candidates with track record of touching lives of people around them”, the source added. 

Another source revealed that On the possible candidate that will emerge out of the coalition, it was gathered that the permutations are between Obiora Stephen Mbah of the PRP and Akunwata Ojiba Ejoh of the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria, ACPN. 

However the odds seems to favour Akunwata Ojiba since he comes from Onitsha zone, the Anambra North. 

Mbah of PRP is from Anambra Central whose zone just relinquished power after straight eleven years between Obi and Ngige as governors. 

Akunwata Ojiba, a retired Customs Officer, sources say has shown visible presence and above the average seriousness with his party (ACPN) in a very aggressive campaign and endorsements across the three senatorial zones of the state. 

It was reliably gathered that the coalition has as its chairman, Barrister Basil Onuora of the Green Party of Nigeria and Mr. Chris Nweke of AAPP as Secretary. 

However, the executive members of the coalition have maintained sealed lips on the development, urging newsmen to wait for an official date for the unveiling of the coalition’s agenda. 

But some other parties who are also actively committed to the actualisation of the coalition’s objective include ACD, BNPP, PDC, DPC, among others. 
Akunwata Ojiba has been on a noiseless campaign and grassroots mobilisation ahead of the election. 

It was a political revival of a sort, when The Consolidation Group (TCG), a political platform birthed by Comrade Ayodele Adewale, gathered to celebrate its first year anniversary on Monday, January 9, 2017, The Street Reportersreports

The group is composed of members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Lagos State, South West of Nigeria. 

Several vibrant grassroots politicians, including young people, from seven political wards that make up Amuwo Odofin Local Government of Lagos State, graced the event. 

The occasion offered the group an opportunity to drum up support for its members who are aspiring to occupy various elective offices. 

Key aspirant at the anniversary celebration was Comrade Oluwaseyi Valentine Buraimoh, who is the Amuwo Odofin Local Government chairmanship aspirant.  Members of the group used the event to continue their support for his aspiration. 

Also present were legislative aspirants from the seven electoral wards of the local council, who are seeking to be elected as councillors. 

Speaking, the Convener, Comrade Adewale, thanked all the TCG members for their loyalty and support towards the actualisation of the objectives of the organisation. 

He further called on all members of group to intensify their drive on their house-to-house campaign to mobilise residents who have not collected their Permanent Voter’s Card (PVC) to do so. 

This, according to him, was necessary in readiness to vote for Comrade Valentine Oluwaseyi Buraimoh, an engineer, and all the councillorship hopefuls in the TCG ahead of the forthcoming local government election in the state, as well as to mobilise for the APC primary election. 

He observed that Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC) has commenced spadework ahead of the council election. 

Comrade Adewale, therefore, pledged to personally put in more efforts to building a political and infrastructural systems. 

The former Amuwo Odofin local government chairman told the group that he has gotten “the understanding of a multi billion naira infrastructural development company to support the incoming administration of Comrade Valentine Oluwaseyi Buraimoh after his election and swearing-in into office by the special grace of GOD”. 

According to Comrade Adewale, who left infrastructural and developmental footprints while served as the council boss added that “the incoming comrade Buraimoh Oluwaseyi Valentine’s administration will surprise the world, within its first 100 days in office, with remarkable developmental transformation in this local government.” 

Former military ruler, General Muhammadu Buhari has made history as the first Nigeria’s President from the an opposition political party, even as former President Goodluck Jonathan became the first incumbent president to relinquish power. 

The history was made in Nigeria today at exactly 10.55AM when the new President, Muhammadu Buhari, was sworn in. 

The event, which is still ongoing at the Eagles Square in Abuja the Federal Capital Territory at the time of this report has past Nigerian leaders as well as other world leaders witnessing the inauguration. 

Moments before Buhari was sworn in, Prof Yemi Osinbajo was invited to take his oath of office as Vice President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. 

This followed the victory of the All Progressives Congress (APC) at March 28, 2015 Presidential election. 

Goodluck Jonathan led the country since the death of former President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010. 

This is Nigeria’s first successful switch of power from a ruling party to an opposition. 

Jonathan’s Peoples Democratic Party has ruled Nigeria since 1999 when the country returned to democracy. 

It is also be Buhari’s second time ruling Nigeria.  He seized power through a military coup in 1983 but was toppled by another coup in 1985. 

Otunba Odebudo OwolabiOtunba Owolabi Odebudo is a seasoned politician that has paid his dues within his short stay in politics.  He has been a two time Governorship candidate of two different political parties between 2011 and now.  He has also been the Chairman of Conference of Nigeria Political Parties (CNPP) Ogun State Chapter, until the present.  He is the Presidential candidate of The Democratic People’s Party (DPP) in the present dispensation until he stepped down for President Goodluck Jonathan whom the DPP had endorsed as their Presidential Candidate in the 2015 presidential election coming up March 28.  He speaks in this interview. 
EXCERPTS

As the Presidential Candidate of the DPP, why did you agree to step down for President Goodluck Jonathan? 

I dropped my ambition in support of President Goodluck Jonathan because of my belief in his sterling qualities as a leader.  President Jonathan’s achievements so far in office speaks volume in all ramifications.  His record of achievements has surpassed all his predecessors in office.  At the present he stands out amongst other Presidential candidates from the various political parties including the APC Presidential candidates Gen. Muhammadu Buhari whose antecedents as a former military ruler were nothing to write home about….read more

Ahead of Nigeria’s general elections, the Borno State governor, Kashim Shettima, on Sunday, wooed members of the state chapters of National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) and Road Transport Employers Association of Nigerian (RTEAN) as he presented 450 Volkswagen Sharan buses to the executive of both unions for onward distribution to their members across the local government areas of the state. 

The buses, according to the All Progressives Congress (APC) governor, were meant to serve as palliatives and relief to members of the union in view of the devastating effects of Boko Haram on economic activities in the state.….read more

Following the postponement of Nigeria’s general election, the Chairman of the country’s electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof Attahiru Jega was on Tuesday summoned to appear before the Senate on Wednesday. 

Prof. Attahiru Jega

Even as Senate President, David Mark, had warned that an interim government is unconstitutional and those clamouring for it are embarking in an exercise in futility. 

Jega is expected to brief members of the upper legislative House on the level of the commission’s preparedness towards the general elections. 

The decision to summon Jega followed a motion moved by the Senate Leader, Victor Ndoma-Egba at Tuesday’s sitting of the Senate. 

He is expected to appear before the Senate in plenary by 11 am. 

The Senate has also asked Professor Jega to appear before it with card readers to demonstrate how INEC would use them during the elections. 

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had announced a shift in the general elections dates to March 28 and April 11. 

The new schedule was announced on February 7 by Prof Jega, after meetings with political stakeholders. 

Prof Jega said that the Presidential Election will hold on March 28 while the Governorship election on April 11, saying “We have done wide reaching consultations to enable us have as much input as necessary before taking an informed decision. 

“In the series of consultations that we had with stakeholders, the questions constantly posed to them for consideration are; in view of the latest developments, should INEC proceed with the conduct of the general elections as scheduled in spite of the strong advice and if so, what alternative security arrangements are available to be put in place?”  Jega asked. 

“We have done this, relying on section 26 (1) of the Electoral Act, as amended. 

“Where a date has been appointed for the holding of an election and there is reason to believe that a serious breach of the peace is likely to occur if the election is proceeded with on that date or it is impossible to conduct an election as a result of natural disaster or other emergencies, the commission may postpone the election and shall in respect of the area or areas concerned appoint another day for the holding of the postponed election provided that such reason for the postponement is cogent and verifiable.” 

The chairman of the INEC pointed out that for the fact the commission was not a security agency that could guarantee protection of personnel, voters during elections and observers, the commission could not likely wave-off the advice by the nation’s security chiefs. 

“The commission is concerned about the security of our ad-hoc staff, the young men and women of the NYSC and students of the tertiary education who constitute at least 600,000 young men and women that we will use in the election,” he said. 

In the new schedule, the Presidential and National Assembly elections will hold on March 28 while the Governorship and State Assemblies elections will hold on April 11. 

In the initial schedule, the elections were meant to hold on February 14 and 28. 

Adamawa State Police Command has uncovered 19 high calibre bombs in a bush near Yola, the state capital. 

The State Commissioner of Police, Gabriel Adaji, who disclosed this at a media briefing at the weekend, said the bombs were busted in Hong local government area of the state, stressing that Boko Haram gunmen were planning to use them for attacks on the state. 

Maintaining that the weapons were ready to be used when they were intercepted, as they were at 90 percent completion and only needed to be connected to batteries, Adaji said it is believed that the insurgents wanted to use the bombs to disrupt the forthcoming elections. 

He disclosed that the interception was made possible based on intelligence report that some suspected suicide bombers were apprehended by soldiers in Yola, and that some of the insurgents were still at large within the town. 

According to Adaji, “This made us to beam our searchlight on the some spots.  Something that would have caused a hell of sorrows to the state was averted.  One of the bombs is capable of bringing down a 10 storey building.” 

Maintaining that the insurgents were planning to bomb Jimeta, the Police Commissioner said if the insurgents had t succeeded in their plan, several people would have been killed and properties destroyed. 

He disclosed further that the insurgents wanted to blow up strategic structures including the more than one kilometre River Benue Bridge linking the state capital with Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola and Mubi area. 

“The bombs have been detonated by the anti-bomb squad of the state police command, the feat has averted a major calamity because some of the bombs were capable of destroying a ten storey building” Adaji said, adding that the smallest among the bombs can completely destroy structures within 200 metre radius and they were on the verge of being moved to where they were to be deployed when they were intercepted. 

Adaji urged the people of the state to be vigilant and report any suspicious character to the nearest security outfit. 

The recent media report credited to Alhaji Lia Mohammed, the publicity secretary of All Progressive Congress, to the effect that the ongoing efforts being made by some concerned Nigerians in the Court of Law by seeking an incontrovertible clarifications on sundry issues pertaining to Major General Mohammadu Buhari’s certificate controversy amounted to an attempt to scuttle our fledgling democracy, is, to say the least, completely misplaced. 

This is because in any democratic setting or any society that is sincerely committed to upholding the principles of rule of law, the Court of Law remains the orthodox channel through which aggrieved citizenry are meant to ventilate their disaffection and dissatisfaction to the fullness, as opposed to taking recourse to violence for same purpose. 

Little wonder that the Law Court is often regarded to be the last hope of a common man. 

Incidentally, there is clearly nothing wrong for concerned Nigerians to drag General Muhammadu Buhari to the court of law over his questionable and contradictory claims pertaining to his seemingly nonexistent Cambridge University WASC, and neither is there anything sinister about the intention of litigants on the matter as being hallucinated and fussed about by Alhaji Lia Muhammed the APC spokesman. 

After all, it is a well established position of the relevant provisions of the Electoral Act that Nigerians who feel dissatisfied with any contestant’s information/documents as attached in INEC’s contest form should do what some litigants are currently doing on the issue concerning General Buhari’s certificate scandal. 

Needless to say that with this approach, our democracy is not only gaining consolidation but also has begun to ensure that those who offer themselves for the service of Nigerians do so with a sense of rectitude and self assurance. 

To this end, there is an urgent need for Lia Mohamed and his ilk to desist from utterances capable of undermining the spirit, the validity and the good intentions of our laws. 

Also read: PDP supporters campaign for Buhari in Jonathan’s presence
No doubt, as it were, only a competent Court of Law is at the moment apparently positioned to either validate of vitiate whatever claims that Major General Mohammadu Buhari and all interested litigants are currently holding on to over the former’s certificate saga. 

However, based on the prima facia inconsistencies arising from Buhari’s certificate scandal so far and upon which barefaced lies have thus emerged, nothing could be further from the truth. 

To begin with, Buhari’s averment under oath that his credentials were with the Nigeria Military Board, a copy of which he reportedly submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in wrong fulfillment of the provisions of the Electoral Act, remains a controversial issue that needs to be sorted. 

On the other hand, the subsequent refutation of this Buhari’s bogus claim by the Nigeria Army Authority is yet another matter that has brought to the fore the abysmal level of integrity bankruptcy of General Mohammadu Buhari. 

Probably speaking with a pang of malice, this may even help to explicate the real rationale behind his disposition towards the issue of restructuring the army. 

But beyond this refutation, it smacks of immense curiosity that at a time, in 1961 to be precise, that Mohammadu Buhari claimed in his 199A form (ie in his Army recruitment form) that he had credits in English language, Geography, Health Science, Hausa and a pass in English literature, the principal of his Provincial Secondary School, Katsina,“in recommending Buhari for commissioning as an officer, said I recommend him for military commissioning; I consider that Mohammadu Buhari will pass the West African School Certificate in English, Maths and three other subjects”. 

But like many Nigerians would want to ask: at what point then did the young Buhari credit the foregoing subjects? 

Could it be in the same 1961 when he applied to be recruited into the Nigeria Army and following which he sought and obtained the foregoing recommendation from his principal at the time? 

Or could it be after he had been commissioned as an officer in the Nigerian Army?  These and more are all questions of abiding interests. 

Meanwhile, as these puzzles linger, it is important to note that no sooner did the Army speak out in swift denial of General Buhari’s baseless claim about the custody of his credentials than the General helplessly recanted, blurting out a gaffe like a child aroused from a nightmarish slumber. 

Thus on 20 January, 2015, General Buhari publicly announced to the chagrin of many Nigerians and his supporters alike – while addressing a press conference in Kano State over his Secondary School Certificate – that “I had assumed all along that all my records were in the custody of the military Secretary of Nigeria Army. 

“Much to my surprise, we are now told that although a record of the result is available, there are no copies of the certificates in my personal file”. 

To say the least, this is really an aberration.  How could a man reputed to have served as one time secretary to the Nigeria Military Board be wallowing in the world of assumption? 

Or is this assumption in any way devoid of the legal offence of perjury. 

Or could ignorance in the prevailing circumstance constitute sufficient grounds or plea for the breach of law as relates to lying under oath?  Or is Nigerian law going to be construed to suit and accommodate General Bahari’s ignorance with impunity? 

If that is so, would that be in tandem with the universal concept of rule of law and the government’s propensity to philosophise about it? 

Anyway, as the date of the Presidential election draws closer Nigerians and the world are keenly watching and awaiting the judicial interpretation on this matter at the earliest. 

Moreover, on the recent statement reportedly released by the incumbent principal of Buhari’s Provincial Secondary School (now Government College) Katsina, it is crystal clear that Buhari’s futile attempt so far to improvise a Cambridge University WASC for himself has only ended up breeding more lies. 

For one, unlike the initial report of having made credit in mathematics as contained in his personal file with the Nigerian Army, the same Buhari reportedly scored F (failure) in the same subject as evidenced in the said statement of result recently released. 

Similarly questionable is the emerging twist associated with Buhari’s name. 

Curiously, while Buhari had always been known and addressed over time as “Mohammadu”which is evidently attested to by both the letter of recommendation on him issued by his School Principal in 1961 and the name in his personal service file with the Nigeria Army, his emerging novel name “Mohamed” as contained in the recent Statement of result released by the current principal of Government College (aka Provincial Secondary School) Katsina, leaves much to be desired. 

In fact, in no small extent, it bugles one’s mind how these names -“Mahammadu” and “Mohamed” – and their respective spellings could now be considered same and as appropriately belonging and referring to one and the same man who had never effected any change of name ab intio or, at least, publicly confessed otherwise. 

Viewed from all ramifications, therefore, it is embarrassing that up till now General Mahammadu Buhari has not deemed it timely, essential and imperative to show Nigerians and the world at large the authentic copy of his West African School Certificate, if at all he possesses one. 

Also, it is a pity that all General Buhari has been telling us and doing all this while concerning the barrage of questions about his so-called Cambridge University WASC has mainly bordered on attempts at whipping up irrelevant sentiments and striving in the process to usher in unnecessary diversion of attention from the vexed issue. 

Even more ignominious on the whole is the crass remark often heard from Buhari’s supporters and fellow party men, especially from certain supposedly educated minds amongst them, to the effect that it does not matter whether or not the retired General has lied under oath about his credentials or indulged in the outright forgery of his Cambridge University WASC. 

According to their thinking, even if it is a marriage certificate that General Buhari is able to produce in the long run as an evidence of his secondary school education, that of course should be accepted rather than rejected or be used as a basis for disqualifying him for not abiding by the stipulations of the laws of Nigeria. 

Funny enough, this line of thought is similarly and shamelessly being echoed and propagated by no less a person than Alhaji Lia Mohammed, the publicity secretary of All Progressive Congress (APC). 

In an interview with Saturday Tribune Newspaper of January 31, 2015, Alhaji Lia Mohammed contends that “I think what Nigerians are saying is that even if all he (Buhari) has to show is a NEPA bill, they will vote for him”. 

Hmm!  Wonders shall never cease!  Just imagine a nation in this 21ist century mortgaging its sovereignty and feature to a man whose qualification for desiring the authority to govern derives validity from the notion that he possesses his electricity bill (?). 

This is utterly ridiculous.  And it is high time Alhaji Lia Mohammed and his ilk desisted from making Nigerians and Nigeria a laughing stock. 

All said, as far as democracy is concerned, General Mahammadu Buhari must adhere to the dictates of our laws and there is no other time than now. 

The fact that the issue about his secondary school education result was not emphasised in his previous Presidential contests is no excuse to ward off or suppress the clamour for it now. 

If the allegation by Alhaji Lia Mohammed that the current and commendable efforts of some patriotic Nigerians in the court of law aimed at compelling General Muhammadu Buhari to produce an authentic copy of his so-called Cambridge University West African School Certificate (WASC) is conceived by the All Progressive Congress as an attempt to scuttle our democracy, then it may not be out of place to submit that the APC is totally bereft of the culture of democracy. 

Of course stopping Major General Buhari from participating in the forthcoming Presidential election on whatever legitimate grounds by a competent court of law is never tantamount to an attempt to scuttle our democracy. 

After all, General Buhari is only one out of other Presidential aspirants in the current race for the Presidency. 

And nobody, man or woman, is forcing any of these Presidential aspirants not to tell lies about anything, but if they must do that, such must be done under the circumstances of our laws which must be justified. 

Nigerians who often feel unsafe in Nigeria’s airspace and yet cannot endure a nine-hour road trip between Lagos and Abuja, have received cheery news from the federal government who announced the planned take-off of a three-hour high-speed train project between the two cities. 

Announcing this in Abuja on Wednesday, the Minister of Transport, Senator Idris Umar, disclosed the federal government’s partnership arrangements with private firms within and outside Nigeria towards the commencement of the project. 

Umar made this disclosure at the public presentation of a book, “Showcasing Goodluck Jonathan’s Monumental Strides: A Third Party Perspective,” authored by the Director-General of Citizens Network For Peace and Development in Nigeria, Mr. Dressmann Preye. 

According to Umar who also said the Abuja-Kaduna rail project would commence full operation next month, the federal government equally carried out a number of feasibility studies with the plan to construct more standard gauge lines across the country. 

He disclosed that the government had also successfully completed feasibility studies in seven new corridors including, the Abuja-Lagos high speed train adding that different private firms within and outside Nigeria have expressed interests in the project. 

The project, largely expected to be private sector-driven, according Umar, would formally take-off in 2018,

“The consultants who carried out the feasibility studies have submitted their reports.  Part of the report contains the involvement of the private sector to drive the project.  This is because we want to develop these lines under a public, private partnership arrangements. 

“We have already received a lot of expression of interests even ahead of advertisement for the purpose from various companies in the country and indeed, in other countries of the world. 

“The idea is that, if we have this in place, the trains can move from Abuja to Lagos and from Lagos to Abuja in a maximum of three hours.  We are intending to compete favourably with other transportation systems in carrying passengers from Abuja to Lagos. 

“When fully actualised, a train will leave Abuja to Lagos and Lagos to Abuja, every hour.  The feasibility studies had been completed, it is not a question of story.  The trains will start running within the next three years, say by 2018.” 

He further explained that the federal government had completed the rehabilitation of western rail lines through the administration’s revivalist strategy in the rail transport sector, insisting that Jonathan’s government is working towards the completion of the eastern line. 

He said: “At the moment, the trains are moving from Port Harcourt all the way to Gombe – a distance of over 1, 000 kilometres but as soon as the security situation improves around Borno State, we will complete the line from Gombe to Maiduguri. 

“While that is going on, we have constructed the standard gauge from Abuja to Kaduna.  We have completed the laying of the track and very soon, President Goodluck Jonathan will inaugurate it and by March this year, we are going to commence full operation on that line. 

“We have placed orders for the procurement of locomotives and coaches that we are going to deploy on the track.  It is a standard gauge.  The trains can move on an average speed of 150 kilometres per hour. 

“That means that in a maximum of one and half hours, you can leave Kaduna for Abuja and from Abuja to Kaduna by rail.  It is the first standard gauge to be completed fully in the whole of West Africa.” 

He used the forum to drum support campaign for the re-election of the president for another term of four years, saying his re-election, would offer him the full fledged opportunity to complete the projects in the works. 

Also speaking at the occasion, Preye, the author of the book, said the contents were drawn by a team of independent media practitioners as well as representatives of civil society organisations whom he said carried out an on-the-spot assessment of all projects executed by Jonathan’s government. 

“I am convinced that this book, will serve not only as a research material but also, a proof that the transformation agenda is working and is yielding fruits,” he claimed. 

In his submission, the book reviewer, Dr. Casimir Anyanwu, accompanied by his wife, Senator Chris Anyanwu, said the book embodied the landmark achievements of Jonathan’s government in 15 critical sectors of the economy. 

Such areas where he said federal government’s footprints had been visible were macro-economic management strategies; trade and Investment policies; infrastructure development; agricultural transformation; oil and gas industry reforms; power and renewable energy; education and health reforms, among others. 

Pa Ayo Adebanjo, a leader of the Yoruba group, Afenifere, was a top member of the Action Group, led by the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo, in the first republic.  He also belonged to the Awolowo – led Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) in the second republic.  At the in­ception of the latest democratic experiment in 1999, he joined the late Pa Abraham Adesanya and Chief Bola Ige, among others, to form the Alliance for Democracy which dominated the governments in the South-west.  In this inter­view, he speaks on the state of the nation. 
Afenifere, unlike before, is no longer active.  What is happening? 

Afenifere is still very active.  In fact, very soon, we are going to meet in Akure, Ondo State. 

It is no longer as vibrant as it was

Well, I am sure that would be because of the press.  You are light on to the world, just like the motto of the defunct West African Pilot.  There is no doubt that there is some kind of division among us caused by some rebels who didn’t want the right thing to be done, because we are strictly Awolowo’s disciples,undiluted.  We don’t modify Awo’s principles for our own interest, progressive is progressive; not progressive today and conser­vative tomorrow.  Those who were never progres­sives, the moment they join you, they automati­cally become progressives. 

How are you resolving the challenge of people trying to twist the principles of Awo? 

We shall continue to say what is right for people to decipher.  There are no two ways about it.  What we are doing now is to ensure that you people follow the right path.  The principle of Afenifere leaders, particularly myself, is to tell you the truth because lying and falsification of things have dominated the country. 

But there are a lot of people now call­ing themselves progressives? 

I will say all those ones are fake.  All those people in the then ACN that is now APC are fake progressives. 

How? 

They are fake in the sense that they don’t pur­sue the principles laid down by Awolowo.  Take, for instance, the issue of federalism, you know we were part and parcel of National Democratic Coalition, NADECO. 

And during the NADECO days, we were the only ones shouting about the issue of Sovereign national conference for the re­structuring of the country because the federation was an awkward one.  It was not balanced.  And it was because the military choked us in 1966. 

The Constitution the colonialists gave us at indepen­dence was jettisoned after the 1966 coup.  And that is why you saw arbitrary creation of states and local government areas because the people there were northerners.  And we said we don’t want the country to separate; for us all to live in peace, let us all sit down and restructure the country on the principle of federalism.  Federalism is the sys­tem whereby the various ethnic nationalities that formed the country can grow at their own pace, and then still keep the country as one, that was what we insisted upon. 

NYou would also remem­ber when Abdulsalami; Abubakar (former Head of State) said we should go for election, and we said no, we should first of all hold a conference that would lead to a new Constitution which we would all be happy about, but he said, ‘No, I am in a hurry, when you get your civilian government, you can go and do it’.  That was why one was held during the Obasanjo time.  All those with us during the NADECO time that insisted on national con­ference are the same set of people saying now that the Goodlock Jonathan conference was a diver­sion.  That was what Bola Tinubu said.  I have said it before, let him challenge it. 

Sovereign national conference was one of the manifestoes we used in electing him into office as governor of Lagos State.  It was part of the Alliance for Democracy that there must be a national conference.  When we won elections in 1999, it was because we reluc­tantly took part in the election because we didn’t want people we didn’t believe in to win elections in South-west and claim later that we were not representing the South-west. 

That was why we contested the elections so that everybody could see that we had the support of the people.  After the elections, all the six states in the South-west where we had our governors, Afenifere leaders toured the Houses of Assembly led by the late Papa Abraham Adesanya, for them to pass a resolution that there must be a national conference.  Tinubu was there.  Now because something does not suit him, because he has some motive now, he says the national conference was a diversion.  Is that con­sistent with our policy?  Now, what you find these days is imposition of candidates which is against the beliefs of Awolowo. 

Take the issue of free edu­cation, you hear free education in Lagos, have you been to their primary and secondary schools and see the number of children there?  Can you find any of the children of these ministers in any of the public schools?  Is that what they inherited?  It is a matter of principle.  This is what separated us the Afenifere from the ACN who called them selves progressives.  It is not a personal thing. 

Where do the Yoruba people stand in the February elections? 

I think that would also be a matter of principle.  The question of South-south is a matter of prin­ciple of Papa Awolowo that a minority would also have the right to aim for the highest position in the country.  That was what I was trying to point out about the recent national conference we had. 

That conference has taken care of everything concern­ing Nigeria.  Like the issue of power, it is no longer going to be the North-west.  Whenever it gets to the North, it must rotate within all other regions in the North.  The same thing for the South, it is no longer about South-west but all other regions in the South such that everybody now know when each of the regions would be president, it is no longer the issue of we are born to rule.  Why I am supporting Jonathan is because he is the only man who can implement the recommendations of the national conference which was set up to bring eq­uity to Yorubaland and to Nigeria.  He is the only man.  And once he does that, all these things we are complaining about will be rectified.  People talk about corruption but they never care to know the root of corruption. 

The thing is that the Federal Government has more money than all other tiers of government.  Now, we have closed that gap in the confab.  We have done it in such a way that the states now have more powers which may not be palatable to those ones in the North.  For example, how did you have more local government areas than the South?  How are the local governments in Kano and Jigawa more than those in Lagos?  The military at that time just allocated states and local governments to themselves. 

There was really no criteria with which they arrived at those local gov­ernments.  So, they now went further by allocating funds on the basis of the number of local govern­ments.  You will recall that Lagos State was denied local government funds even when the Supreme Court ruled that it should be paid.  That is the kind of wholesome power the Federal Government has, and that is one of the reasons I feared if Buhari should govern under this Constitution. 

Why? 

Because they have the mentality that they are born to rule.  And that is why I think this romance with the South-west of picking a vice presidential candidate with him is just a mere gimmick.  That is why I am insisting that all the recommendations of the confab should be implemented before the elections because, the inequality this country has been suffering all this while has been rectified with the recommendations of the confab. 

All the things that could cause us conflicts have been rectified.  So, all our problems have been attacked from the root.  And, that is why those who think it is not to their advantage don’t want it done.  Everybody believes that this present Constitution is bad and we then say let us all sit down and harmonize it, what is wrong in that one?  We have done it now but yet you don’t want it to be implemented. 

And where is the antagonism coming from ?  From the beneficiaries of the awkwardness of the constitu­tion.  And they still want the Yoruba to continue to go along with that?  If some Yoruba follow them sheepishly, probably because they don’t know the background, that cannot happen to someone like me.  And part of the inequality we are talking about is what has come out in the Buhari certificate mat­ter.  In the First Republic, you set up a standard for everybody but when it comes to the northerner, you set another standard.  That is exactly what hap­pened in Buhari’s case. 

Those of us who knew all these things from the beginning are not surprised by the new turn of events.  You heard that his prin­cipal sent a letter to the military that he was ca­pable and that he expected that he would pass his examinations.  That was what was happening in those days in the North.  Go and ask serious federal civil servants in this country, many of the perma­nent secretaries that were senior to them whether they were not superseded without being qualified.  They cannot deny that.  If you have read General Isama’s book, you will find it there where he said when they were about to be commissioned, the standard set for them was usually lower for the North.  I am sure he never anticipated a situation like this. 

And do we have corruption on selective basis?  Look at the PTF which he superintended.  Even though Obasanjo was trying to cover him up, has he denied anything of such?  He knows that if he does, the document is there for everyone to see.  There was the issue of the N25billion there.  It is all in the report.  So, how can I, as a NADECO man, come and support a dictator.  All his antecedents are dictatorial and military like. 

That was then. 

Don’t give me that.  When did he become a democrat?  What has he done to show he is a dem­ocrat other than the fact he is saying he is being punished because he is now a democrat?  When he first came as a military man, he was issuing ret­roactive actions to convict people for murder.  We are all living witnesses to what he did with Decree 4, so, that is the type of man you want me to vote for in a civilian regime?  He says he is not a funda­mentalist.  It is just that people forget about records easily.  Here was a man who campaigned in the North and said Muslims should vote for Muslims.  Here was a man who said he was going to work for the operation of Sharia through out the country.  He has not denied it neither has he apologized for all the anti-democratic things he has done.  I won’t be deceived by bringing a first class technocrat as running mate. 

That is where I was going that if you cannot support because of Buhari’s per­sonality, how about that of his vice? 

That is not possible because the running mate has no political experience.  He is a first class tech­nocrat, a distinguished lawyer and a nice gentle­man, but if you are talking of politics, it is another matter entirely.  They just brought him in.  Tinubu brought him in as Attorney General, he was never in politics.  He comes from Ikenne.  Does he know the politics of Ikenne? 

So, the South-west may be making a mistake. 

Exactly, there is no doubt about that, that they will be making a big mistake and digging their graves.  They may not listen but, I, Ayo Adeban­jo, am telling them.  I am 87 years old, I can die any moment, so that whenever it happened, they would be able to say that indeed, that man told us.  Buhari is only deceiving them .  Go and read what Wole Soyinka said about him in 2001.  Has it changed?  Go and read what El- Rufai said about him in 2002 that he is not electable.  These are the same people polishing him.  When I look at the whole scenario, I feel sorry for this country. 

But, it is like Yoruba are irrevocably committed to following Buhari through Tinubu. 

I don’t believe Yoruba are following Tinubu.  There are so many factors that made him win elec­tion in those days.  When it comes to these facts, it is now left for the Yoruba to decide.  Those of us who suffered imprisonment during the NADECO days under Abacha , Tinubu was not around.  To those of us who were really victims of dictatorship, you cannot send Buhari to us.  I don’t know those who are now doing chop chop politics. 

From the beginning, we were never those who believe that a military person should come and rule under a ci­vilian regime and that was one of the reasons the Yoruba strongly voted against Obasanjo in 1999.  It was the military that imposed Obasanjo on us, because it was Babangida and Abdulsalami that brought him and imposed him on us.  They may have disagreement later because Obasanjo didn’t perform.  It was Obasanjo that brought Yar’Adua, he brought Jonathan. 

The old brigade in the Afenifere are the real progressives according to you be­cause you are the authentic Awolowo’s followers.  Is it not an irony now that in­stead of the South-west following people like you, they are following Tinubu and his ‘progressive’ party? 

That is left for them.  I have given all the facts.  This is a democracy.  With all we are saying, you and I know that we are suffering here in Lagos. 

I am Fashola’s fan, I won’t say he has not done well, but those of us who created his predecessor, Tinubu, know that he could do better for Lagos, that is what we are saying.  You may not appreciate what is happening now except you remember the Western Region where things moved well.  A man ruled the Western Region for seven years without strike.  He introduced free education when our in­come was barely five and a half million pounds including Edo and Delta at that time by share eco­nomic ingenuity.  Is that what we are having now? 

You have people who do job of N50 million and say it is N250 million and yet, the people would be saying he has done a good job.  With all that is being done in Lagos, some of us have asked the question,how much does it cost?  What is the rev­enue of Lagos, both the internally generated and the allocation?  And yet, we are still owing that much debt.  And yet we have to pay for tolls.  I am not contesting election for anybody to vote for me, all I am saying is for posterity.  Where they have done well, I say it, where they are wrong, I say it as well.  When they talk of corruption in Jonathan government,

I won’t say the government is clean, but those who are talking about corruption, how clean are they themselves?  This is the question and yet these are the same people you journalists extol to high heavens.  Are you saying there is no corruption in Lagos State?  The only job we have now is to reform this country and urge Jonathan to implement the recommendations of the confab so that we can all start on a clean slate. 

There may have been a lot of irregularities in the past and it is the irregularities that people are fight­ing.  Everybody must have autonomy to rule itself and we all combine at the centre for what joins us together.  If we had no federal system, Awolowo could not have done what he did in the Western Region. 

So INEC should just allow Buhari to run the election and forget about the cer­tificate? 

I don’t know.  Don’t put words into my mouth, that is left for INEC to prove if indeed he has the certificate; otherwise he is not qualified. 

He is not qualified? 

That is what the law says.  It is not me.  You journalists must be honest to this nation.  You are not doing me any favour neither are you doing the country any good by trying to plaster what should not be plastered.  What the law says is this: You must have a school certificate before you can qualify. 

But the school has presented that now? 

This is not the kind of certificate I have.  I don’t think this one is tenable.  If they can be fooled, I cannot.  That is why I think Jega should come in.  Though Jega doesn’t want to be seen as support­ing anybody, from the law that he is expected to implement, Buhari has not satisfied the Constitu­tion.  Jega is only trying to shift responsibility by saying people opposed to Buhari’s qualification for the polls should go to court. 

I heard the APC saying Buhari has been contesting election for the past 12 years and nobody said anything about it, why now?  And my answer in form of question is, if someone has been committing robbery and getting away with it, the day he is caught, you are now asking, why has he not been caught all this while? 

Are you saying it is as good as INEC disqualifying the man based on what is on ground? 

Except you are saying the law should not be obeyed.  The law is not made for fun.  We should not be sentimental about this thing.  That is why we say there are two standards, one for Ayo Adebanjo and one for Buhari. 

That is what is happening in the secondary schools.  When they say examina­tion cut-off mark is this but lower cut-off mark for those in the North, that is the kind of thing we have been going through since amalgamation and we have been shouting that let us educate the people of the North, but they don’t want to be educated as we are.  Yet they want to be qualified as we are. 

You are 87 now and mummy is 85.  What is the secret of your longevity? 

It is about honesty.  We are at peace with our minds.  I won’t see black and call it white because of monetary gain.  It is the grace of God.  Although I try to eat well and exercise, all still amounts to the grace of God. 

The Director General of President Goodluck Jonathan’s Organisation, Ahmadu Ali says the Fulani socio-cultural group – Miyyetti Allah, the Yoruba socio cultural groups – Afenifere, and Odua Peoples Congress (OPC) have all endorsed the re-election bid of President Jonathan. 

He said the North should start grooming a non-dictatorial leader who is between the ages of 40-50 to take over from President Jonathan in 2019. 

“I want to tell my fellow Northerners to start grooming a 40-50 year-old candidate that President Goodluck Jonathan will hand over power to in 2019 and not a dictatorial leader who attempted to kidnap my friend late Umaru Dikko.  Is that the person you want to vote for?  God forbid!”  Ali said. 

Ahmed Makarfi, a serving Senator, in his remarks said the PDP “will use our power of persuasion to ensure that, PDP is voted on the 14th and 28th of this month. 

“I assure you that by this persuasion and consultations by the Vice President, the governor, many stakeholders and I will deliver Kaduna state to PDP,” he added. 

President Goodluck Jonathan has said Nigerians should be assured that the general elections scheduled for February 14 and 28 will not be postponed under any guise. 

The President gave the assurance while debunking allegations by the All Progressives Congress (APC) that the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is involved in surreptitious schemes to postpone the February elections. 

The assurance was conveyed in a statement by the president’s Special Adviser on Political Affairs, Prof Rufai Ahmed Alkali. 

The president said that it was the APC through its members and supporters that has been doing everything possible to frustrate the conduct of a free and fair electoral process and not PDP or the presidency. 

According to him, the APC has been breaching the Abuja Peace Accord, which all the presidential candidates subscribed to, with impunity. 

The statement emphasised that President Goodluck Jonathan has been receiving unprecedented support since he embarked on the nationwide campaign and he is fully prepared for the presidential election. 

“The attempt to denigrate the Presidency of Nigeria and drag it down the cesspit of vile propaganda and rumour mongering is unfortunate and signpost’s the APC’s disregard for our revered institutions. 

“Nigerians have seen President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan criss-cross the length and breadth of the country in the last one month to rousing receptions everywhere. 

“This certainly is not the sign of someone who is frightened about elections or unprepared for same. 

“From our tours and the unprecedented outpour of goodwill, we are confident of a wider margin of victory than ever before. 

“We are ready and fully prepared for this election. 

“We wish to draw the attention of Nigerians to the fact that it is the APC and their unruly supporters that have been doing everything possible to frustrate the conduct of a free and fair electoral process. 

“They have engaged in unprovoked attacks on our billboards in Lagos State. 

“They have done all these to trigger a reaction from our supporters and create an enabling environment for the truncation of the elections. 

“It is, therefore, a great irony that those who have consciously worked to frustrate the February 14 elections are the ones crying out the most and accusing others of the plans to shift the polls. 

“Nigerians have been assured by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, that preparations for the elections are on course.  We therefore have no doubt that the elections will be a huge success, much to the disappointment of the naysayers,” Alkali stated. 

“We wish to assure Nigerians that the President is committed to a peaceful and successful conduct of the February 14 polls and will not be distracted by tissues of lies and cocktails of deceit from people who have run out of ideas on how to move our country forward.”,  he insisted. 

The Presidential Campaign Organisation of President Goodluck Jonathan has accused the All Progressives Congress (APC) of stopping its presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari from participating in a presidential debate being organised by the Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria (BON) as a means of shielding the intellectual laziness and inability of the former military dictator to constructively engage contemporary national issues in a live television and radio debate from Nigerians and the international audience. 

Jonathan who spoke through the Director of Media and Publicity of his Campaign Organisation, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, stated that the APC knows that General Buhari will flunk it if he is subjected to the rigours of debate on national issues relating to governance and development. 

Jonathan’s Campaign body said it was aware that the APC had already expressed its concerns, when approached by an international news channel for a debate, about the intellectual acumen of General Buhari, and had assured the news channel that it was only comfortable with its vice presidential candidate, Prof Yemi Osinbajo, who has capacity to feature brilliantly on the programme. 

“We have just read a report in the media credited to the APC Presidential Campaign Organisation that the party would not allow its candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, to participate in the radio and television presidential debate organised by the Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria (BON). 

“The APC accused the organisers of the debate of unhidden bias and campaign of calumny by some key organisers of the programme against the corporate political interest of the party and its candidates. 

“Whilst we will not bother ourselves with the many reasons adduced by the APC, we wish to state that we see the APC decision as an attempt to shield its presidential candidate from displaying his intellectual laziness and inability to constructively engage contemporary national issues in a live television and radio debate. 

“We had envisaged that the APC would be reluctant to expose General Buhari to the rigours of a live television debate because the opposition party knows that its candidate will flunk it. 

“If the APC truly believes that it is ‘a party of progressive intellectuals’, as it claims it should allow General Buhari to prove that at the debate. 

“Should the APC fail to participate in the debate, it would also show the disdain both the party and its candidate have for the Nigerian people, denying them the opportunity to make informed choices on the basis of what each candidate will articulate as propositions on issues that will be raised. 

“We are convinced that General Buhari does not have what it takes to sustain a coherent argument on germane issues of governance and development. 

“We challenge General Buhari to a debate on any national and international medium of mass communication and our candidate, President Goodluck Jonathan will be ready to participate. 

“On the other hand, President Jonathan’s running mate, Vice President Namadi Sambo, is also ready to participate in the debate and any other debate. 

“Our presidential candidate and his running mate will not raise flimsy and escapist excuses such as “unhidden bias” and the like, since we believe that they are well-rounded intellectuals who have been prepared by their experience in office to answer any question under the sun on the governance of our nation.”,  Jonathan Campaign group noted. 

Nigerian military authorities have come down heavily on suspected senior military officers sabotaging counter-terrorism operations in the country as over 10 senior officers, including a Brigadier-General, have been arrested and are currently telling the military hierarchy what they know about a recent attack carried out by the Islamic insurgent group, Boko Haram. 

The officers may be charged before a military tribunal as soon as investigation into their complicity or otherwise is completed. 

According to the Director of Defence Information, Major-General Chris Olukolade, the investigation of senior army officers follows alleged shirking their responsibilities during the attack by the militants on Baga. 

Those arrested so far include Brigadier-General Enitan Ransome-Kuti, his Chief of Staff Lt.  Colonel G.A Suru, the Commanding Officer of 134 and 174 battalions, Lt.  Colonel Haruna and one Major aliyu. 

The two Nigerian Army battalions are under the Multi-National Task Joint Task Force (MNJTF) in Baga, attacked by the insurgents. 

Speaking on the arrest, General Olukolade said that the arrested officers were being investigated because at the time of the attack on the multinational headquarters in Baga, Brigadier-General Ransome-Kuti and his men were fully in charge of the military formation. 

He said it was disappointing that the attack on Baga was not repelled by both battalions, despite having the necessary weapons to carry out the necessary operations. 

On January 3, 2015, suspected members of Boko Haram attacked the base of the Multinational Task Force in Baga, Borno State, dislodging the soldiers there. 

Reports say the troops were warned to be on alert following intelligence reports that terrorists would strike between January 22 and January 25. 

Eyewitnesses, Channels Tv reports, said that the attack started around 5am when residents started hearing gunshots as the insurgents tried to gain entrance into the MNJTF premises. 

Candidate of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos State governorship election, Jimi Agbaje, has lashed out at the All Progressives Congress (APC) government in the state for trying to make him look bad before the people of the state. 

Agbaje expressed his anger at a rally organised at Apapa and Amuwo–Odofin local government areas, adding that rather than resorting to mudslinging, APC should focus on issue-based politics. 

Agbaje, who vowed to remain focused in his quest to liberate Lagosians, decried the campaign of calumny against him by the APC. 

Apparently referring to the out-going Governor Babatunde Fashola and the APC governorship candidate, with his running mate, Agbaje said, “As you all know, I am contesting against three candidates.  One is the puppet, the two others are the puppeteers. 

“They have said am too old to govern the state but I still look younger than them.  I do not have experience but I want you to know that governance is not about experience but it is qualification. 

“So far, we have done two debates, those of you who watched the debate will agree with me that we floored the APC candidate. 

“They have resorted to using all manner of ways to portray me in a bad light. 

“Recently they said I am a tax evader but only this month, the state government sent me a letter commending me for paying my tax promptly”. 

Promising to complete the ongoing Lagos-Badagry express way project, Agbaje berated the state government of using the project as an avenue to siphon fund. 

He said, “When they started this road, they told us that the road will be ready by 2012 but as you can see, this road is yet to be completed. 

“They plan to toll this road but it is an avenue to get money for themselves. 

“I want you to know that they are using this road to siphon money into their pockets.  By the grace of God, we shall complete and commission this road”. 

He assured that a PDP administration under him would have a human face, saying, “we will not discriminate against anyone, especially the non-indigenes.” 

Sample Photo of The AdvertGovernor Ayodele Fayose has come under fire from the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.),  over a front page advert the Ekiti State governor paid for in The Punch and Daily Sun newspapers on Monday morning. 

Buhari, in a Facebook post, accused Mr. Fayose of abusing a Bible verse and insulting Muslims, especially Northerners.*General Muhammadu Buhari, sick like late Yar’Adua? 
The governor had paid for front page adverts in the national dailies, depicting three former Heads of State from the North, who are Muslims and died in office, together with the APC presidential candidate, suggesting that what happened to them may happen to Buhari. 

Fayose, in the advert urging Nigerians to “vote wisely” by casting their votes for President Goodluck Jonathan, said “NIGERIA…‘I have set before thee LIFE & DEATH.  Therefore, choose LIFE that both thee and thy seed may LIVE (emphasis not ours)’”. 

The advert, which has attracted reactions of Nigerians on the social media, was described by Buhari as a breach of the peace pact signed last week by leading presidential candidates, including President Goodluck Jonathan. 

“First, it is totally unprofessional and abusive to Ethical codes of Journalism for Punch and Sun Newspapers to publish such content.  Punch and Sun Newspapers must revoke the advert immediately and apologize to the people of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari and the APC for such folly. 

“Second, if till now, there is no denouncement of the post from PDP and GEJ (Goodluck Ebele Jonathan), it means that they support it because Fayose is a stakeholder of the party, and a front man for GEJ’s campaign. 

“GEJ signed a peace pact last week against election violence and he, through the insensitivity of this advert, is the first to break that pact. 

“The Jonathan administration is cruising on lies and propaganda.  It is bent on amassing votes to siphon more public funds and has no interest of Nigerians at heart.  It is bound to fail”. 

The Facebook post reiterated Buhari’s commitment to peace and urged Nigerians to get their Permanent Voters Cards and “vote these bigots out of power come February 14”. 

“Encourage your neighbors, let them know that GEJ has nothing to offer them but lies and empty promises”, it added. 

Brookings, the World’s most influential think-tank based in the United States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition candidate’s General Buhari in the 2015 Elections which it suggests would be keenly contested. 
The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tank’s projections is contained in the Brookings publication titled: Foresight Africa – Top Priorities for the continent (January 2015). 

“Though the election is expected to be very competitive, the odds still favor President Jonathan.’ 

According to Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a fragile anti-jonathan establishment with a sole purpose to return power to the north. 
“The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power “returned” to the north”

“The APC gets much of its strength from tap- ping into anti-Jonathan sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments.” 

The Report also indicated that the APC’s strategy is hinged on a combination of popular votes from the North West, North East and “the battleground SouthWest” but also hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed Tinubu not delivering the region contrary to speculations. 

“What remains to be seen, however, is whether Bola Tinubu—a former governor of Lagos State who played a pivotal role in the formation of the APC and is considered to be the party’s strongest mobilizer in the southwest—will be very enthusiastic in delivering the battleground southwest to the APC during the elections.” 

“Tinubu indicated his interest in being the party’s vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party’s strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement the PDP’s labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.” 

On President Jonathan’s performance: “despite Boko Haram—the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow and—with the re- basing of its GDP—became the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest in the world.  Jonathan’s supporters also point to his success in containing the Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions around the world.” 

The Brookings Report also identified factors such as incumbency and numerical control of States where PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as giving PDP an edge. 

“The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its “power of incumbency,” and all the institutional support that goes with it.  Not only does it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key institutions”

The report advised that all efforts should be deployed to ensure a free, fair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as post-election violence seems very likely. 

“Post-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the APC loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if Jonathan does.”  the report noted.