Turnout is a question ahead of every election.  It would be an understatement to say it is a more challenging question than usual ahead of Tuesday’s primaries, as voters head to the polls in Florida, Illinois and Arizona amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

Although it’s hard to forecast the impact of coronavirus on turnout, there are a few hard facts that, on balance, suggest it might have less of an effect than one might expect in Florida and Arizona.  But Illinois might be somewhat more vulnerable to a decline in turnout. ( On Monday, Ohio’s governor postponed the state’s primary over health concerns.) 

One factor is sure to blunt the effect of the coronavirus: early voting.  Already, millions of voters in these states have cast their ballots either in person or by mail.  Early voters are almost always older than the overall electorate, which tends to mitigate the possibility that such voters, who are most vulnerable to the coronavirus, won’t match their typical share of the vote.