GLASGOW — Scotland did not see this coming. 

The Conservatives’ shock landslide victory across the rest of the U.K. in Thursday’s election largely overshadowed another surprise result up north: The Scottish National Party, Scotland’s leading nationalist party for decades, can now claim to be its national party as well. 

Reinforcing majorities and breezing ahead in marginals, the nationalists took 48 seats — a gain of 13 — and confirmed their dominance in Scottish politics on the back of an anti-Brexit, pro-independence message. 

If the SNP’s hopes to play a kingmaker role in a Remain-backing coalition government in London are now dashed, the party finds itself in a prime position — electorally — to press ahead in what is quaintly referred to as the “constitutional question.” 

The nationalists have demanded a new referendum on independence, with the leadership saying unequivocally that the only route to independence is through a legal vote.  Speaking at the Glasgow count, SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon said: “Scotland needs to have the right to choose, before the end of the [Brexit] transition period.” 

The SNP and Conservatives are now set to play out a grizzly political stalemate. 

While pockets of Tory MPs held out in the border regions and rural North East, this was ultimately the SNP’s night, driven by hundreds of thousands of voters who had stayed home at the last election. 

The SNP can now plausibly claim to speak for Scotland as a whole, for as long as Boris Johnson remains PM. 

Political stalemate

This was two-issue election in Scotland: Brexit and Scottish independence.  Scotland voted 62 percent to 38 percent to Remain in the EU in 2016, and the SNP established itself as the vanguard anti-Brexit force.  In contrast, the Conservatives took on the mantle of being the unambiguously pro-Union party. 

In Johnson, fresh off a major U.K. election win, the nationalists now face a formidable obstacle. 

A new legal referendum would require the consent of the U.K. prime minister, and Johnson campaigned in Scotland on the basis that he would refuse to grant that permission. 

The SNP and Conservatives are now set to play out a grizzly political stalemate. 

For the nationalists, however, there is a silver lining.  The PM is a uniquely toxic figure in Scotland, to the extent that SNP ads often showed only the top of his hairline to get the message across.  So long as he represents the opposition to their agenda, the SNP can bank on outraged voters coming to them even if they don’t support independence. 

The SNP are also back as the third largest party at Westminster, guaranteeing them weekly slots at Prime Minister's Questions and a host of committee allocations.  The party can continue to advocate for Scottish independence and exploit any inconsistencies in Johnson’s approach. 

Still, the PM is in a position to ignore the SNP completely for now and focus on driving through his Brexit deal. 

In 2017, the Scottish Conservatives were all that separated former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May from electoral oblivion.  This time around, Johnson’s broad appeal in England more than compensated for his dire approval ratings in Scotland, where the party lost half of its MPs. 

Under a Johnson administration, it seems unlikely that any concessions would be made on powers, and the SNP would be reluctant to accept them and run the risk of validating a Tory Westminster government. 

Labour losses

It could have all been quite different. 

During the election campaign, it seemed possible that a Labour government, supported by the SNP, could agree to some further devolution of powers to the Scottish Parliament, and perhaps even a referendum if nationalist parties did well at the 2021 Holyrood elections. 

But in an election dominated by the twin themes of Brexit and independence, Labour lacked concrete policies on either.  As a result, the party was routed in Scotland, and this time the damage may be terminal.  An old joke can now be recycled: There are more pandas at Edinburgh zoo (two) than Labour MPs (one). 

Labour’s campaign began with the hope of reclaiming some marginal seats in Glasgow and other parts of the Central Belt, where industrial decline has ravaged communities for generations.  In reality, Labour haemorrhaged its vote share to other parties and lost seats to the SNP by thousands, not hundreds of votes. 

The Liberal Democrats’ election evening was similarly marked by losses, including that of Jo Swinson, who became possibly the first major party leader to lose a seat in a U.K. election. 

The Lib Dems did, however, hold seats elsewhere and maintained their tally of four Scottish seats.  They reclaimed North East Fife, a rare Scottish heartland, after losing agonizingly to the SNP by two votes in 2017. 

There may be a lesson for Labour here: The Lib Dems had a strong anti-Brexit message and denied they would want to see a new independence vote.  In return, they kept seats amid a rising yellow tide. 

Invisible Scotland

In his victory speech Friday morning, Johnson referred to the Conservatives as a “One Nation” party, echoing a sentiment from past campaigns.  He made no mention of Scotland, or the SNP, or any new referendum. 

His colleagues in Scotland may also have noticed the absence of a Scottish constituency in his alliterative promise to govern for all voters from “Woking to Workington, Kensington to Clwyd South, Surrey Heath to Sedgefield, Wimbledon to Wolverhampton.” 

With a majority of Scotland’s electorate apparently unhappy at being a part of Johnson’s nation, the SNP can continue to exploit Johnson's unpopularity.  The prospect of 10 years of Tory government will be a powerful advert for independence in the minds of many Scottish voters across the political spectrum. 

Whether the SNP can convert its powerful showing in Thursday’s election into a new referendum on independence and a majority for leaving the U.K. is another question.  For both the SNP and the Conservatives, the next litmus test of Scotland’s appetite for independence will come in 2021, when Scotland goes back to the polls.