Game in a nutshell: The afternoon featured a flurry of roster moves designed, in the words of GM Mike Rizzo, to put the best possible 25 men on the field to win tonight's game.  But for eight innings, the result bore a striking resemblance to so many other nights over the last two months.  The Nationals couldn't get anything going at the plate, and some sloppy defense wound up costing them and spoiling a great pitching performance.  Jordan Zimmermann went eight innings and allowed zero earned runs, but the Mets brought two men home in the fifth via Adam LaRoche's throwing error.  Those two runs should have proved enough because the Nationals did nothing against Mets right-hander Jeremy Hefner other than Ian Desmond's solo homer in the second.  But then, it all finally came together in the bottom of the ninth against New York closer Bobby Parnell.  Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond all recorded base hits to jump-start the rally.  Steve Lombardozzi then delivered the game-winning sacrifice fly, giving the Nationals much-needed, 3-2 victory. 

Hitting highlight: Just when it looked like the Nationals were doomed to yet another woeful night at the plate, they stormed back in dramatic fashion in the bottom of the ninth.  Zimmerman led off with a double off the wall in right-center, barely beating RickRead more »

Nice way to start a homestand – clean out the non-performers, then win on a walk off by a guy who plays above what his physical talents would let you believe. Good pitching, especially the calmness after some errors, by Zimnn

Man did we need this.  With the new guys here the clubhouse will be rocking and hopefully this turns the tide and we look back and say this is the night that, for many reasons, turned this season around. Can't help to hunk with all that high cheese Danny would not have fared as well fouling those pitches off. 

Good start.  Now, Souza to take the place of Harper (or maybe Brown should be given the chance) or both.  Send Moore down and part ways with Bernadina.  Let Tracey go as well, and playoffs here we come. And my apologies Natslady for misrepresenting your take on Harper. 

Lol – Knight taking to Lombo and says Nats only had two runs in the ninth ALL SEASON, but got two tonight?  Hope this is the start of a trend.  And, of course, if they could just convince Chipper to come help all our hitters…

ok, DP, just giving you love all around since you are asking for it…here is my post from the previous post:kudos to David Proctor given his post @ 9:09pm…was going to ask if you could share what you are smoking but i refrained…nice call bro…much needed walk-off win and to hear it was the first of the year, wow! 

From prior thread (names removed)No fight in this team.  None at all.  I feel very sorry for Jordan Zimmerman.  Doesn't deserve to lose.  These guys have quit.  Bunch of quitters. No chance.  This is the 2013 Nats(with Lombo up)He's overmatched.  Not a clue===========What I said just before gametime:OK, folks, strap on the seatbelts.  We knew this was coming — been talking about it for weeks:We now enter a 105-game stretch where most everybody we play is not an elite team.  This, and some new guys, and Harper back next week, is when we start to make our move. GYFNG!  Look out — here we come! 

Lombo was dead set against taking a walk.  Parnell didn't throw him a single strike.  But hey, it worked out!Also, what is Terry Collins smoking?  Walking Bernadina?  I get he wanted the force but walking a .150 hitter to load the bases?  To get to a better hitter?  Odd. 

Couldnt get a good signal at the park.  At Barracks Row for drinks.  What a celebration!  Best win of the year.  Was Zimm out or safe at 2nd. Lombo has been clutch.  How funny the stuff we said about Espy swinging at balls at his eyes and Lombo swung and made contact with every one. Isnt that ironic (credit to Alanis)

Knight taking to Lombo and says Nats only had two runs in the ninth ALL SEASON, but got two tonight?Just looked it up.  He's right.  Prior to tonight, the Nats have played in 42 ninth innings.  A team slash line of .141/.174/.169 — and only two runs. ( That's a rate of under 0.05)For comparison, the NL as a league has a 9th inning slash line of .230/.290/.353 (in 655 9th innings, 248 runs, a rate of 0.37 — over seven times highe). 

Lombo has been clutch.  How funny the stuff we said about Espy swinging at balls at his eyes and Lombo swung and made contact with every one. Indeed, that was nerve-wracking, because the first *seven* (or eight?)  pitches were *all* high and out of the strike zone.  I don't know why Lombo swung at some of those, but thankfully he was able to foul a bunch off. 

Ahhhhhh.  So nice.  At least JZ doesn't get the loss.  Lombo with his best Jayson Werth impression!  Werth made me nervous jumping that dugout railing, though.  I hope this gets that late inning, come from behind, monkey off their backs. 

RZ set up that whole inning by taking 2nd base against The Arm.  Getting to 3rd on that wild pitch brought the IF in and enabled ALR to poke one through the right side of the D. We have talked about Zim's base running smarts in the past, and it paid off, again, in the 9th. So much better to have a contact hitter up in that situation.  I'm sorry, but Danny would have struck out 3 times over, swinging at those high fast balls.  Lombo kept fouling them off until he got one in the air to the OF.  That is game-winning situational hitting. The guy with the biggest grin in the post-game scrum was Anthony Rendon.  He was more excited than Lombo. I think Werth has an effect on this team, just with the presence he brings.  Difficult to define, but you know it when you see it.  They will be a different team with him back in the dugout, the club house, and on the field. 

It is so crucial to have vets in the dugout like Werth…He and others have to be there to pass along the wisdom of the ages…like to be a team player in a marathon season, it's not worth running into walls.  So many positives in one day…but it's a long season..And they have the game on here in Colonial Williamsburg. 

So JZ thinks he was wild early in the game.  Haha.  We thought he was a little out of sync.  Zero earned runs and he calls it wild.  What a guy.  End of the game will show you what can happen when the guy at the plate goes up there with an actual plan.  We need more of that. 

Crowd came alive in the 9th, was the best win of the year, great to be there!Lombo rightly swung at those pitches because they were close enough to the zone that there was a serious chance that the HP ump would give them to a pitcher like Parnrll against s team like this year's Nats.  After all, the called third "strike" to ALR was at least 4 or five inches outside.  Most of Parnell's were closer than that. 

Like Ken Boyer who had to teach the young but talented hothead, Tim McCarver, about the long season.  McCarver, making an out, starts throwing his bat, helmet as usual, had to learn that these kinds of tantrums don't help the team.  Harper has a lot to learn…Werth will help as an older McCarver was told to help the young Ted Simmons, who was to take his job.  McCarver helped Simmons because he owed it to the team for those that helped him. 

Ghost Of Steve M. said… Rangers 1st baseman David Murphy is pitching for the Rangers and just got a K. June 04, 2013 10:13 PM Ghost Of Steve M. said… After the K, the batter gets thrown out for arguing balls and strikes. 

In that situation, you have got to protect the plate.  Too many guys stand there navel gazing or grounding out.  He knew the ball had to be up for the sac fly.  Not trying to hit a grand slam, trying to score the run needed to win the game.  You know- a gritty baseball player trying to do the right thing for his team. 

Why doesn't Rizzo like Lombo?  The guy is a pro.  I'll tell you what, he had no business swinging at any of the pitches he did tonight, but he made contact and got the job done.  Here is a question.  Who are the scouts that are associated with the signing of Espi, Lombo and Rendon.  You might not think that matters, but believe me there does.  I'll bet Rizzo had nothing to do with the Lombo signing and everything to do with Espi and Rendon.  Agents also get into play.  Lombo is getting hosed if Rendon is coming up to start over him at 2B

MrsB loves the Nats said… I'm wondering if we see Lombo in the OF and Rendon at 2nd….  June 04, 2013 10:20 PM I would say yes and probably switch Lombo to 2nd late in the game for Bernadina to the LF but what do I know. 

Yes, when the Cards were out of contention, Dick Groat was told to stop sacrificing so he could have a chance to win the batting title.  So he comes up with a runner on, and pulls the ball to move the runner over.  Continuing to help the team when it didn't matter, his manager comes up to him and says you couldn't stop if you tried. That's what wins ballgames…Lombo is that kind of utility player that BABIP, WAR can not completely measure.  These stats are excellent guidance used to help make a decision, not to make the decision

Proctor…Rendon is a top hitting prospect as a third baseman.  Whats gonna happen when we need that tough double play in the late innings and he isn't sure about his footwork.  Also, in the minors they have to slide directly into the base.  In the bigs, you have that 3 foot cushion on each side of the base.  Something to thing about there Proctor

jeffwx said… Danny won't be optioned but I think he will be traded before the end of the July.  Davey continues to play up the .157 hitter to keep his value up to a team in need of his skills. I don't see it.  His value is next to nothing plus he really is the only legit backup shortstop the Nats have. 

GoSM – this one:MrsB loves the Nats said… I'm wondering if we see Lombo in the OF and Rendon at 2nd….  June 04, 2013 10:20 PM I would say yes and probably switch Lombo to 2nd late in the game for Bernadina to the LF but what do I know. 

I wonder if Espi's injured shoulder, then wrist, just prevented him from having any real bat control, so he started flailing, then it got ingrained in him?  No matter, he will heal, get some excellent (not Ecksellent ) hitting instruction during rehab, and we'll see how he fares.  At one point, he was a serviceable 2b, albeit with a loopy swing.  I love his glove so I hope he gets the body healed, the rocks out of his head (trying to play with a broken wrist?  REALLY?),  and his swing smoothed out. 

My pleasure Ghost. No way Danny gets traded his value is at an all time low for someone with his ceiling.  The rub is what happens if Rendon owns 2B, Danny returns after a rehab and does well in the minors (according to SC Nats Fan, not likely but hopeful).  Not enough room on the roster for Rendon, Lombo and Espi.  Look forward to finding out the story behind what really happened.  The locker clean out is weird.  Me thinks either way Danny knew he was out of DC for he foreseeable future. 

Well, they are doing the unthinkable now and going without the only legit backup shortstop…IMO, we can't afford to have him taking up a spot (like Henry was) just to be the backup ss.  They must be thinking of other possibilities outside the batters box.  We need 25 players…When Harper and Ramos return, we'll have that. 

Big Cat said:Here is a question.  Who are the scouts that are associated with the signing of Espi, Lombo and Rendon.  You might not think that matters, but believe me there does.  I'll bet Rizzo had nothing to do with the Lombo signing and everything to do with Espi and Rendon.————————–What are you basing that on?  Your trashing Mike Rizzo is your right, but I think this statement is just unfounded on any factual basis.  I'm calling you out to explain where, or what, that you're basing it on?  What inside scouting report are you privy to.  Do tell. 

Mrs. B, thanks.  I had some negatives prepared if the Nats lost but I have to bring up not pinch running for LaRoche after his single was a mistake.  It just added to the drama but I believe the speedy Kobernus scores on that play. 

Ghost, I thought at the time that Kobernus for LaRoche on third was the right play, especially since TyMo was available in case we went to extras.  Parnell was wild high, and the chance to score on a WP is better with pretty much anyone other LAR (exeept Haren of course.) 

Listened to the 9th inning while driving home from work.  Didn't have a car accident.  Good day all around (except for peeps breaking their arms patting themselves on the back…).  Interesting Grilli using in the 9th of a tie game away.  I would like Atlanta to lose, please.  I hope Rizzo is right about Rendon at 2B. I was encouraged by him saying he had played there–well, in Little League.  LOL. 

well, they may have to use him for 13 games or more in the unlikely event that someone gets hurt.  I would be suprised if Danny is back before July 1stBraves still up by 7….20th win at homePlay at noon tomorr

Ian Desmond w impassioned postgame plea for fans/media not to place blame on Danny Espinosa, Henry Rodriguez, Zach Duke for team's struggles. " By no means did we win this game because they weren’t here." 

jeffwx, unfortunately without a trade, the only backup is Zach Walters and he looks shakey when pressure is on him.  He is a mess with the bat also.  I saw him make 2 fielding errors in 1 inning.  Poor footwork for a MLB shortstop and his nerves get the better of him. 

Agreed Ian, but when your not winning with them, you may as well try something else.  What do you have to lose. Yes, we wish we could have gotten more for Willingham but reality is we didn't…time to move on and make better decisions tomorrow

Are we still on that backup short stop thing?  Maybe a one game issue, if that.  Part of a game.  Nothing to base these decisions on.  I personally think the option/ DL confusion had something to do with an ultimatum.  One or the other- take it or leave it.  Werth back.  Jordan back to himself after that game in Balmer, hopefully 2 pitchers , Bryce and Ramos before too long.  It will be fun to watch Rendon, Davis and Karns. 

I want to know the reason that Espi has been playing probably a year too long.  He struck out 200 times last year and is just not even close to being a college hitter at this time.  He has a torn rotator and a cracked wrist.  And to use the excuse that he is one of the best 2B in the league is a crock.  The guy is an anchor that has killed us all year.  He couldn't hit .275 in the local high school league.  All I want to know there Seam is why is he playing?  As for Rendon, I personally like Rendon.  But to play him 3 games in AAA at 2B and then bring him up to play in front of Lombo AND Korbonus is another crock.  Korbonus hit 330 in AAA and Lombo has proved he is a solid major leaguer.  Ever wonder why HRod was given 9 lives?  Yep…Rizzo traded for him.  So all I want to know is who was responsible for signing Lombo,ESpi and Rendon. 

BigCat said… And who said Lombo doesn't have a high ceiling?  Put him at 2B for 50 games and lets seeSheesh — just look at the difference in the swings between Lombo and Rendon.  Do you really think Lombo's ceiling is anywhere near Rendon's?I'll bet Rizzo had nothing to do with the Lombo signing and everything to do with Espi and Rendon. How much you wanna bet?They both came to us in the 2008 draft — Rizzo had already been Assistant GM and Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Nats for two years by then.  I'm sure that Rizzo therefore had a hand in both of them. 

David Proctor said… Ian Desmond w impassioned postgame plea for fans/media not to place blame on Danny Espinosa, Henry Rodriguez, Zach Duke for team's struggles. " By no means did we win this game because they weren’t here."  I didn't see that and it's classy but this win is a result of feeling like this team was finally stocked to win. It started with the FoF with that double and the field leader Ian Desmond with the clubhouse leader Jayson Werth cheering them on. I will say that 8th inning was a sorry excuse.  Chad Tracy with another garbage Pinch hitting appearance and a lazy fly like I have seen more than I want to see again.  Then a Lousy approach by Span.  His job is to get on base any way he can.  He starts with a 2-0 count and then plays power hitter and swings from his heals on a ball he should have taken for a called strike.  Work the count at 2-1 and go from there.  He changed his approach and has to think like a leadoff with the big bats behind him. 

Oh man, what a great win.  So unexpected after the weak hitting first 8 innings, and so sweet on this day of all day.  Lots of happy fans in Section 314 after the events of the day.  One guy behind me commented that Espi would have struck out twice by the time Lombo got the sac fly.  I had every confidence he would come through after the two sac flies in Atlanta. Werth had lots of chances out there, and seemed strong and confident.  Great to see him back.  And credit to Zim for a great slide to beat Ankiel's throw.  That guy's arm is still amazing.  Haven't checked the replay yet, but it looked like Wally Bell was giving the pitchers alot of strikes that were almost in the RH batters box against lefties.  Hard not to be enthusiastic after a day like today.  Things are heading in the right direction.  It's a good day to be a Nats fan. 

BC…part of the plan,make it appear you don't need Danny that much by Rizzo, play him up by Davey tonight…get ready to get something for him by Midnight August 1.  I'm sure other teams see value in him. Need 25 players to contribute if you are going to win it.  Rizzo realizes he has to do better and he can't hold on to past mistakes if he is gonna get what he wants ( a big contract). 

Just reading through the comments here.  Ghost, you're dead wrong on the IBB to Bernadina.  It might be baseball 101, but it's not baseball by the numbers.  Check out this table.  The chances of scoring a run go down just slightly when you go from 2nd and 3rd with none out to bases loaded with none out (86.1% to 85.6%).  But the chances of scoring go down a lot if you get to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (67.4%).  The Shark had already struck out twice tonight.  The move there was to pitch to him and get him out.  The Mets gave us two chances to win the game with a sac fly by walking him. 

Big Cat said:All I want to know there Seam is why is he playing? ——————— -Why are you are directing this question at me ?  When have I said that Espinosa should still be playing?  I just asked you what you were basing your claim that Rizzo had nothing to do with signing Lombo signing.  All I asked you is what you were basing that statement on? 

Just got home!  Very nice finish to a game that moved quickly. Was Zimm really safe?  He looked out from 308 but the ump was right there.  Excellent slide by the way. I would have pinch run for LaRoche twice.  Once when he reached 1st and then definitely when he was on 3rd with no outs.  But what do I know. Crowd seemed to stay for the entire game which was nice!  Not much to cheer for until the 9th but we did just fine then.  Kevin was jeering "Bobby" but I am not sure Parnell heard him from up in 308.  Still, we had rally hats going and cheers and its so nice to win one in the 9th. Only negative for me is that Bernadina still seems lost.  I would love to know the last time we started a lineup without any of the position players hitting under .200?  or to put that in a positive spin, with all of our position players hitting over .200.  I will say that one is a lot better than 4 which we had with Moore, Bernadina, Tracy and Espinosa all in the lineup at one time. Go Nats!!  I feel 5 out of 6 coming on

We finally got an iota of a lucky break to win a game we tried to lose.  I cannot believe Zim had the cojones to run on Ankiel.  That started it off.  That was gutty determination, because Zim knows that arm.  Then two very solid hits, and risp with zero outs.  Seems like it's usually 2 outs.  There was fight and heart in the ninth tonight, and very loud fans who did not leave the game.  Pitching kept us in it.  Offense was still nothing to write home about, but enough.  I just think it's funny how people keep trying to figure out how Lombo can get results with his obvious lack of talent.  Makes me amused.  Smarts, hard work, team ethic, hustle.  Those are tools also.  People are quick to remind us that he really is not very good- ok, then.  Every team needs guys that aren't toolsy but make the most of the skills they have. 

Info on Desi's comments seems to have come from tweets by Comak and Kolko.  DavidP, you've quoted tweets quite a bit today.  Good info, but you need to attribute it so people can check it out and know where it's coming from. 

Thanks Ghost.  My thoughts on walking Bernadina were thank you very much but when that happened I would have definitely pinch run for LaRoche and maybe done it even sooner.  That is one of the many things I love about baseball is that you can have so many decisions on just one play.  Would I have walked a guy hitting under .160?  Not sure but I am sure glad they did. 

Ghost, don't sheesh me.  I've seen that too.  It depends on who the batter is.  And if the batter was Zim or ALR or someone hitting above .200, it is the right move.  Would you have walked Espi in that situation?  I wouldn't have. 

One last thing about the backup SS situation.  Well, maybe a couple of things.  Isn't that really a very very minor predicament?  I am betting that Lombo can handle it for a couple of innings or games and I will bet with his arm that Rendon has also played some SS in between injuries.  If Desmond has to miss multiple games then I am guessing they bring up Walters but why stress about something that isn't happening right now? 

NatsLady said… Ian is a good guy.  He loves his teammates.  Ian knows what it is like to get vitriol from fans. I got word that they chose today was the day getting back home that the team didn't want Espi to be subjected to fan backlash which I think Desi knew and fueled his comments. Supposedly this was put in motion to be this day for several days and that was the rush to promote Rendon. I got this from a reliable source but I guess it really doesn't matter.  Just very interesting and something I didn't even consider.  The rest of the choices definitely seem based on the weekend bad appearances by Henry and Duke. 

This is totally off target but I have been dying to know something.  I went off to San Francisco during our lads away trip and could not follow all the comments during that time.  Did something happen to one of our posters?  I am not trying to stir things up but his absence is obvious to me.  Not that I mind, its still a great place to read baseball.  I am just wondering if he said his good-byes or something and I missed it. 

IMHO, you can get a force at home and a possible DP with a ground ball and the bases loaded.  Without 2nd and 3rd and a ground ball, you have only play and one out.  So statistically, the chances of getting outs are much better. 

Section 222 said… Ghost, don't sheesh me.  I've seen that too.  It depends on who the batter is.  And if the batter was Zim or ALR or someone hitting above .200, it is the right move.  Would you have walked Espi in that situation?  I wouldn't have. _____________________________ Yes, I would've reluctantly walked Espi just because you have to give yourself the best chance to get the out at home. 

sjm, I agree with you.  It's a miniscule thing in the broader scheme of things.  There is no justification for keeping the human rally killer on the roster just so he could backup Desi.  Very glad Rizzo recognized that. 

jeffwx, exactly.  The tag play at home takes away the chance of the catcher completing the doubleplay with a force at home. I can't understand how some don't see it.  It is clearly in the walkoff situation Baseball 101 with less than 2 outs. 

FWIW, using "last 14 days" as a measurement — Shark was hitting .250 with 2 HR's.  Lombo was at .267 — so I'm not sure I'd pitch to. But when I manage (from Sec 3's sofa?  😉 ) — when there is a walk-off situation, I like to have the force at home.  I like the idea that a single pitch could get me two outs. But here's the question in my mind: if that's the case, why wasn't Parnell pitching the ball low?  Pitching it high gets you pop-ups but also much easier to fly out (which loses) — pitching it low can get you a DP. 

Oh, and someone said Lombo is getting hosed if Rendon is up to start at second…First, I think Rendon is up to patch a utility hole when Lombo is needed in the outfield (aka, they're platooning at second) and second, I have always had the impression that Lombo is a utility guy, not someone vying for a staying role.  I suppose anyone can become anything if they play up to it though. Anyway, my wish for Rendon if he starts tomorrow at 2B is that he has at least one opportunity to make me look silly for having fielding concerns about him and that he rises to the occasion in impressive fashion.  Not too worried about his hitting… He's showed he can get that going over time. 

Section 222 said… sjm, I agree with you.  It's a miniscule thing in the broader scheme of things.  There is no justification for keeping the human rally killer on the roster just so he could backup Desi.  Very glad Rizzo recognized that.  True and like the way you called it "human rally killer".  I just don't know if Rizzo recognized it.  I'm not getting the answers because my source doesn't know who made the decision if it was Davey, Rizzo or Ted Lerner or the voice of reason from NI. 

So statistically, the chances of getting outs are much better. That's true if the two batters are equal, but if the one you're walking is significantly worse, it's not.  Here is the link again.  The chances of scoring a single run with the bases loaded and none out are 85.6% The chances of scoring a run with 2nd and 3rd and one out are 67.4%.  The key thing here is that you don't just have to get one out to get out of the inning, you have to get three outs.  So if you have a really good chance of getting the batter who is up with 2nd and 3rd and none out, you pitch to him.  That was the case here in my opinion. 

Don't fool yourself.  Lombo doesn't see himself as a utility guy.  He wants to play every day just like every single major league player.  And he's going to fight as hard as he can to prove his worth to Davey now that he's going to get a real shot.  But Rendon has a bat that can really make a difference.  We'll see how it plays out, but I'll bet Davey will play them both over the next several weeks — see if Lombo gets and stays hot, see if Rendon is decent defensively and continues his raking ways from Harrisburg.  Then he'll make a decision.  Neither of them is guaranteed a job, which is the way it should be.  To become the starter you need to produce. 

Sec 222 — I'm not sure that table is valid for a walk-off situation.  Really.  For example: sometimes when there is a runner on third, the infield is back, because the team in the field is up by a number of runs and they take the out. Furthermore, while the table shows that chances are reduced if an out is made, that's true in every situation — in the meantime, however, a run might score during that out, and that's not reflected in the table either. So, what you really need is a separate table that has data only from walk-off situations. 

Ghost, I can see I won't convince you, but you haven't convinced me either, and I'm surprised you're so adamant.  So I'm going to try once more: You say you'd walk Espi in that situation.  How about a pitcher with a batting average of .000 who has to bat in the bottom of the 17th inning?  You're going to walk him to set up a force play at home and bring up the leadoff batter?  Assuming you answer no to that question, then you have to admit that the decision depends on the batter.  You think the Shark is showing life.  I think he was an automatic out tonight and would have gone down if they hadn't put him on.  And if he does, the Mets' chances of surviving the inning go up significantly. 

Wonk, if you read the accompanying text, it discusses walk off situations.  In fact, that's what the table is all about.  The chances of scoring a single run, which is all that is needed for a walk off are much better with the bases loaded and none out than they are with second and third and one out.  To assume that in every situation the correct move is to set up a force at home is just wrong. 

Sec222, I think the pitcher draws a tough decision and open for debate.  Parnell had lost control and that has to factor into it.  I don't think he was striking out anyone and Lombo was making me nervous.  This is one from the baseball Gods. 

Gio Thursday?  Awesome. OK, so now I need the link for "NIDO" — that's the same spreadsheet as where we put our section numbers, right?I'm bringing Mrs. Wonk, the in-laws, and the infamous Wonkling (and two of her friends).  Section 314. 

Re walking Bernie, the thing is, with a man on third almost any ball out of the infield is a guaranteed run, regardless of the situation behind him. With a man on second and third and no outs, a hit to the infield is either a run or a man left in scoring position, quite possibly one at third, at best, now with one out.  Now, if you load the bases the threat of a run scored on a hit beyond the outfield is unchanged; however, the threat of a run on an infield hit us dramatically reduced, the shot at a DP is increased dramatically, and the chances of having another chance for a force play on the next at bat are up. In short, the ball in the outfield scenario can't be neutralized, but the back in the infield situation changes dramatically in a number of positive ways. 

Here's the NIDO linkWonk, I was debating whether to go on Thursday but now that I know you and the Wonkling will be there, in my section no less (314), I'll definitely have to be there.  I've still got a couple of extras if any Insiders are interested. 

Do you all remember Austin Kearns was in rightfield and the bases were loaded and he got a short hop and threw home in a situation like this and got a 9-2 forceout.  Something you don't see but once in almost never. 

I think it would be interesting to consider a couple of stats re: bases loaded vs. man on second and third:First, what are the odds of getting an out on a ball in play in each scenario?  I'm being they're higher with bars loaded. Second, what are the chances of getting a run home on a ball in play in each scenario?.  I'm being they're close to identical. 

128, Eric is saying Collins made the right decision.  Agrees with Ghost.  So far I'm kind of alone in saying it was the wrong decision, or at least saying it out loud, although sjm308's initial reaction at the park when the Shark was walked was "thank you." 

I agree with SJM since I knew Lombo was the best person for that situation.  Parnell couldn't execute.  You can't pitch high in the zone.  You have to work for the K as your 1st choice and a groundball for a doubleplay as the bonus. 

222 wrote:Wonk, I was debating whether to go on Thursday but now that I know you and the Wonkling will be there, in my section no less (314), I'll definitely have to be there. Cool!  Wonkling will start off in our section — but I'm sure she and her friends will wander off looking for a 100-level seat in the second half of the game ;-)We have seven seats in row G.

222, don't get me wrong, I liked having three outs with bases loaded, but the fact is the chances of scoring on a hit to the outfield are unchanged with a man on this regardless of what's happening behind him.  In contrast, the chances of getting an out on an infield hit go way up with the bases loaded vs. man on third with open bases behind him. In the bottom of the 9th with the game tied I can see why definitively maximizing the chances of getting an out (loading the bases) is safer than playing the odds of getting the Shark out in a way that doesn't push across a run. 

I'm just glad we can have discussions without all the nasty name calling or telling people they are wrong 100% although I probably shouldn't have Sheesh'd. Section222, is a good guy.  I've had the Manager strategy discussions on other situations and they are tough.  This one is standard SOP.It all would have been for naught if Kobernus pinch ran and scored on Desi's double.  The reason I think you send him is because worse case Desi scampers to 3rd if there was a play at home.  With Adam running it was smart to hold him as Adam LaRoche as slow as he is made it close but he would have been out!  😉

128, even though you disagree with me, ask and you shall receive.  Here's the Kearns play.  From May 2009, the runner was … wait for it… Felipe Lopez, playing for the D-Backs, and the catcher was Jesus Flores, not long before his injury I think.  Ghost, I salute your memory.  Amazing. 

Get this — Parnell after the game said that he wasn't executing his pitches like he needed to because the Nats are a good hitting team. ( cough cough).Well, maybe compared to the Mets.  Going into the game, the Nats were 13th in the NL, hitting a miserable .229 — the Mets were last, hitting .227.  But even with all that, the Mets score a full half-run per game more than the Nats. Nats are also last in OBP, 2d to last in SLGBut we sorta swapped out Espi for Werth, and hopefully Rendon will get going, and come June 11, Harper, and, and, and . . .  In the meantime, good thing we have such a good starting rotation! 

Managers will sometimes bring in a 5th infielder if you have a sinker, changeup, slider pitcher who is pitching well. Parnell was looking like Henry.  He was toast.  Lombo could've drawn a walk but this was more exciting.  Amazing bat control.  Simply amazing.  Lombo graduated to a new level.  Early in the year he K'd on 3 straight pitches and his last week he's become Mr. Sac Fly. 

Lombo could've drawn a walk but this was more exciting.  Amazing bat control. Indeed — he was doing a Span/Werth imitation with all those fouls. Earlier on, I was not having a good feeling during that at bat.  Lombo looked a bit overpowered.  But since Parnell kept pumping fastballs, Lombo was getting his timing down all while he kept fouling them off. A gritty at bat from a gritty player.(Who's still only age 24, btw)

"Just reading through the comments here.  Ghost, you're dead wrong on the IBB to Bernadina.  It might be baseball 101, but it's not baseball by the numbers.  Check out this table. "In the bottom of the ninth, score tied, men on second and third with no out, your only hope is to get strikeouts, ground outs or pop outs to the infield.  A fly ball to the outfield beats you.  Even a ground ball can beat you if it's hit to the right side, since there's no force at home.  There's also less possibility of a double play after getting the out at home if first base is open.  So you can throw all your numbers and tables out the window.  Walking a batter to load the bases and set up the force at home is the only move that makes sense there.  Unless the batter is Espinosa and you know you have a guaranteed K. Then you strike him out and walk the next guy. 

Section222, thanks for that.  That was one of the greatest plays in Nats history.  I owe you a drink for that. Can you do me another favor, can you find my telling P**** that Kroll could be called up directly from AA?  I can't find it.  Thanks in advance. 

"Lombo could've drawn a walk but this was more exciting.  Amazing bat control.  Simply amazing.  Lombo graduated to a new level.  Early in the year he K'd on 3 straight pitches and his last week he's become Mr. Sac Fly. "I posted in the last thread that it was amazing to see Lombo's demeanor shift as the at bat unfolded.  Once it hit 1-2 I said to the TV, "Lombo, just settle down."  My wife was like, "yeah, he looks very tense. "1 or 2 pitches later, he flipped the switch.  He was in the zone just making sure to put the ball in play, even if foul.  He was so locked in he almost seemed surprised that the sac fly wasn't just fouled off. It was great to watch! 

Ditto on having a civil disagreement Ghost.  Refreshing.sjm and I had the same reaction at the game — that Collins was helping us by walking a virtually sure out.  I was surprised to see my instinct confirmed by the numbers.  A whole year of data went into that table, and the drop in the likelihood of a run scoring is significant if you can get that first out.  The unknown variable is the likelihood of getting the batter out if you pitch to him instead of holding up four fingers.  Based on what I saw from the Shark tonight, I was pretty sure the likelihood was very high.  If you K the Shark, you can walk Lombo to set up an inning ending DP.  But who knows, the Shark might have laid down a perfect suicide squeeze.  I totally don't get why they Davey didn't pinch run for ALR.  Ty-Mo was still on the bench and could have played 1B if the game went into extras.  By the way, I haven't talked to a manager since LIttle League, so maybe that's why I have no problem questioning conventional wisdom.  But SOP isn't always right.  Like saving your closer in extra innings in a must win game against the team you're chasing for a save that never materializes because a shaky, wild, and now DFA'd reliever lost the game. 

"Unless the batter is Espinosa and you know you have a guaranteed K. Then you strike him out and walk the next guy. "Thats cruelty to animals!  Laughing hard becuz Davey is smart enough that even he would then pinch hit to Gio!  LOLOL

" You think the Shark is showing life.  I think he was an automatic out tonight and would have gone down if they hadn't put him on. "I'm pretty sure Terry Collins has seen the video of the Shark going Eutaw Street last week. 

"I totally don't get why they Davey didn't pinch run for ALR.  Ty-Mo was still on the bench and could have played 1B if the game went into extras. "Another good point.  We looked in the dugout and were screaming KOBERNUS.What was Davey thinking.  This is what worries me about Davey.  He fell asleep at the switch since he had the TylerMo still available and speedy Kobernus. Last week that costs the Nats a game. 

Eric said… "Earlier on, I was not having a good feeling during that at bat.  Lombo looked a bit overpowered."  Looks like I owe you a beer Wonk (unless comments in previous threads count ;)! Finally!  My row in NIDO has been empty all year (I had lots coming last year, but they were "virtual" beers at the time 😉 )So, what's the protocol?  Do you enter the "1" or do I? ( I have the spreadsheet open right now, I'll be glad to!  😉 )

Walking a batter to load the bases and set up the force at home is the only move that makes sense there.  Unless the batter is Espinosa and you know you have a guaranteed K. Then you strike him out and walk the next guy. Exactly my point!  It depends on your chances of getting that batter out.  Don't throw out the numbers, embrace them and use them.  Because they tell you that if you can get that first out, your chances of getting out of the inning go way up.  99 out of 100 Nats fans will tell you your chances of striking out the Shark, or getting him to produce an unproductive out in that situation, are much better than getting Lombo to do the same. Once you get the Shark out, walking Lombo to set up the inning ending DP is a good move according to the numbers, though perhaps not as good as you might think. 

Ihaven't felt this pumped up after a game in a while. Now I better understand — this is the first time this season that the Nats, after being behind after 6 innings, won the came.(Yes, I knew we hadn't had any comebacks, but even from the 6th inning?  Yowza)

Section 222 said…Just reading through the comments here.  Ghost, you're dead wrong on the IBB to Bernadina.  It might be baseball 101, but it's not baseball by the numbers.  Check out this table.  The chances of scoring a run go down just slightly when you go from 2nd and 3rd with none out to bases loaded with none out (86.1% to 85.6%).  But the chances of scoring go down a lot if you get to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out (67.4%).  The Shark had already struck out twice tonight.  The move there was to pitch to him and get him out.  The Mets gave us two chances to win the game with a sac fly by walking him. June 04, 2013 11:18 PMI agree with you, 222.  I was afraid they were going to pitch to the shark. 

Not directed at any particular commenter but yes, please, re.  the attributions.  And while I'm at it, a "no" on lengthy quoted passages, with or without attribution.  A link works just fine in that case, thanks, and the author/publisher will thank you for bringing the readers. : -)Section 222 said… Info on Desi's comments seems to have come from tweets by Comak and Kolko.  DavidP, you've quoted tweets quite a bit today.  Good info, but you need to attribute it so people can check it out and know where it's coming from.  June 04, 2013 11:22 PM