New Zealand bossed the West Indies in the second test in Wellington, and if it weren’t for rain they would have almost certainly won the first test.  As a long time NZ fan these results come as a welcome shot-in-the-arm after years of enduring disappointing results, injuries to key players, youngsters failing to deliver on promise, and a milieu of administrative blunders.  It’s not that we haven’t had the odd good result in recent years (test win in Aussie, test wins in India and Sri-Lanka, ODI series win in South Africa etc.),  but these most recent performances give me more cause for optimism than most for a number of reasons…

1.  Consistency over 2 matches (10 days)

For the first half of the match in Dunedin we completely dominated the West Indies, firstly with the bat as we racked up 600+ for only the fourth time in our test history, and then with the ball as we rolled the Windies for 213 and then enforced the follow on.  The visitors showed a lot more fight in their second turn at bat, and at one stage in our second innings may have even entertained the idea of an unlikely victory, but a steady partnership by Ross Taylor and Corey Anderson steadied our wobbly ship and seemingly had us on course for a well deserved victory until the rain came and ruined the party.  The team must have felt incredibly deflated after coming so close, especially in the light of another near miss against England at Auckland earlier in the year. 

NZ fans have learnt to be cynical about our team, for good reason, and a large part of me was expecting us to perform badly in Wellington, especially after we lost the toss and were inserted by Darren Sammy on a green-top.  However, this side seems to be made of sterner stuff!  They have self-belief and the skill to back it up.  They have a captain who seems to have inspired his charges.  They seem to be developing mental toughness (can’t believe I said that! * touch-wood*).  I would still not be surprised if they now go and lose the third test heavily and draw the series, but I think I see something different about this current crop of players - and it excites me! 

2.  Marquee players stepping up

One of the most frustrating things over the past two or three seasons has been the performance of our big name players when it matters most, especially since the absence of Daniel Vettori from the test side.  Ross Taylor, Brendon McCullum, Tim Southee and Kane Williamson are our big guns.  Each has the ability to be in the top-ten of his craft in the world, but as we know potential doesn’t a world-class player make! 

Brendon McCullum came into this series under a good deal of pressure from the public, something that he has gotten used to in a career that has been characterized by poor shot selection and a tendency to ‘throw his wicket away’ after promising starts.  The fact that he scored his first test century since 2011 in Dunedin was of huge importance for him personally, but more importantly for the team.  We need our skipper to command a place in the side, and to lead from the front with the bat.  Yes he threw his wicket away after a good start in Wellington, but it didn’t seem like such a horrendous error in the light of his innings in Dunedin and a batting unit that is currently performing.  Baz has found his spot at number 5 in the order.  After starting his career as a keeper who batted at 7, followed by an extended stint as an opener, he must be allowed to remain at 5 for at least the next three years.  His style is perfectly suited to the middle-order where he can look to be more aggressive against a slightly older ball, and with the confidence that at least two players to come after him are capable of scoring test centuries.  McCullums average is currently around 35 - simply not good enough for a top order test batsman.  However if he can continue to mature as a player and find the consistency that has long eluded him then he should finish his career with an average in the low 40’s, with 10-12 test centuries and close on 8000 test runs. 

Ross Taylor is our premier batsman.  His back-to-back hundreds (one of them a double) has seen him move into the top 10 of the ICC World Test Batting Rankings for the first time (somewhere he belongs for the next 5 years).  His average is now about 47 and he has 10 test centuries.  He should look to finish his career with 20+ test centuries, 10,000+ runs, and an average of 50+.  He is absolutely capable of this.  The most pleasing aspect of his batting over the last 10 days or so is the way he has gone about scoring his runs.  He has looked unhurried, has left well, played straight, ticked the strike over, and not a slog-sweep to be seen!  Like McCullum he has had a tendency to get out to rash strokes.  However he has the perfect makeup for a test batsman.  His range of strokes means that he doesn’t need to panic about where he is going to score runs.  He just needs to bat time and the runs will come!  For his and New Zealand’s sake I hope he plays less and less T20 cricket in the coming years.  It must be difficult for any player transitioning between the different formats.  Even though he is a fantastic and destructive T20 player, we don’t absolutely 'need’ him in our side.  We ABSOLUTELY NEED HIM fit, firing, and mentally prepared in our test side. 

Kane Williamson will score 12,000+ test runs, will score 25+ test centuries, will finish his career with an average of 50+, and will go down as possibly our greatest ever test player.  At least that is the potential he possesses.  He has a beautiful technique, all the shots, and a voracious appetite for runs, all the hallmarks of a world-class player.  However it has taken him a few years to find his grove at test level, something that is not uncommon with young talented players (see Martin Crowe, Ricky Ponting etc.).  Since the start of the home and away England series in March he has averaged 49, which hopefully points to greater things to come. 

Tim Southee has been something of an enigma since his amazing test debut as a 19 year old against England in 2008.  At times he has looked nothing more than a club bowler at best - struggling for pace and movement, not taking wickets, going for plenty of runs.  But when he gets it right, and this has been happening more and more frequently of late, he is as destructive a swing bowler as any going around world cricket at the moment!  He has also formed a pretty lethal new-ball combination with Trent Boult (see a great blog about this here).  If he can retain his form and fitness there is no reason why he shouldn’t lead the NZ attack for 5-10 years, and if he does so could potentially threaten Sir Richard Hadlee’s test wicket tally?  Southee also has a lot more batting potential than he has demonstrated so far in his career.  With a bit more application and common sense he could end up averaging in the low to mid 20’s and score a number of important lower order runs for NZ. 

3.  Good blend of youth and experience

This team should be together as a unit for the next 2 or 3 years.  Peter Fulton is currently the oldest in the squad at 34 years old, with Brendon McCullum next at 32.  The rest are all in their 20’s and have a minimum of 5 good years of cricket ahead of them!  Even though it is a relatively young squad there is a nucleus that is growing healthily in test match experience.  The last time we were able to field a consistent test squad for a number of seasons back-to-back was in the Fleming, Cairns, Astle, Parore, Nash era.  The only thing that should break this unit up in coming years is injury, and/or other exciting players waiting in the wings.  Which leads me to…

4.  Players waiting in the wings

If we can all agree that Ross Taylor is currently NZs best test batsmen, then few would argue that our next best player is not even currently in our test side.  Jesse Ryder has been out of the game for at least a couple of years and has had well documented problems with his attitude, behavior, fitness etc.  However he is a genius with the willow in hand, and we simply cant afford to waste a player of his talent.  He must play for NZ again sooner rather than later.  The question is where do we slot him in to the lineup?  The current team has all proven they can succeed at test level, as has Jesse and to a lesser extent Martin Guptill (who recently scored a big hundred for Auckland to announce his return after a long injury layoff).  There is also another couple of ex-Blackcaps scoring bucket-loads of runs at domestic level in Michael Papps and Aaron Redmond.  All four of these players are waiting in the wings should form or fitness strike one of the incumbents.  There are also a couple of talented youngsters in Jeet Raval and Craig Cachopa who will end up playing test cricket for NZ.  We also have a plethora of good fast bowling options waiting in the wings should one of our current trio come-a-cropper.  Mitchell McCleneghan has already proven himself at ODI level and his fellow left-armer from Auckland Michael Bates continues to rack up bags of wickets in the domestic game.  Then there are a bunch of rapid youngsters from Central districts in Adam Milne, Ben Wheeler, and Doug Bracewell.  The only area that is of slight concern is the lack of spin bowling options.  Ish Sodhi looks like a great long-term prospect – especially with the added advantage of being more than handy with the bat – however; he needs a decent bag of wickets to kick-start his test career. 

5.  Handy runs from our lower order

NZ teams of the past have been characterized by being nuggety battlers rather than world-beaters, and our lower has almost always been relied upon to bail out our failing top order and score valuable runs.  However, in the last 5 years or so this has not been the case – especially in the absence of Daniel Vettori.  The blame here can’t entirely be laid at the feet of Chris Martin, however it didn’t help that for his entire career we essentially only had 10 batsmen.  Thankfully the current side are all capable of contributing runs, and we have seen in the last two matches this exemplified as partnerships 7 through 10 have added 137 and 107 runs respectively. 

So these are the main reasons for me feeling pretty optimistic about the foreseeable future of NZ test cricket.  I would like to see the Blackcaps back in the top 5 of the world rankings, and to command a place there for a period of at least 5 years.  Hopefully this will encourage the ICC and other test playing heavyweights to give NZ 5 test-match series and a better international schedule, which should further assist in the development of the game in New Zealand. 

Anyway, third test is about to start so perhaps all of my positivity will be shredded within the next few hours?