9/10/2010

Let Norwich serve as a warning to Nick Clegg

The deferred elections in Norwich yesterday were clearly a great success for the Labour Party, and an unmitigated disaster for the Lib Dems. 

It would be easy to put this down to poor campaigns, poor leaflets or a lack of organisation, but none of these things are true.  I know that Norwich has a young, energetic, enthusiastic and well organised campaign team who know how to win (after all, they gained the parliamentary seat in May of this year), and these deferred elections saw in some wards our best campaigns for many years.  Yet despite this, our share of the vote was down across the city.  We missed out on winning in Lakenham, a ward we had won in for the last two years, and failed to hold on to second place in the ward we last to the Greens.  But most worrying was the party slipping to 4th place in wards where the party had previously been the main challenger. Just take a look at the results in Norwich compared to last year. 

Analysis - Lib Dem vote almost halved.  This was a Tory target (they hold all the other seats in the ward) and the candidate is also the county councillor for the ward (and also a district councillor in another borough).Crome 2009 CC result - Lab 811 Con 712 Gre 518 LD 381 2010 City result - Labour 1,085 Conservative 543 Green Party 199 Liberal Democrats 137 UKIP 100

Analysis - Lib Dem vote up on the back of a through campaign which in any other year would have seen this become a Lib Dem gain.  Lots of Lib Dem posters up, lots of leaflets, canvassing, letters, etc.  Disappointing for the Lib Dems given the campaign. 

The funniest thing about this campaign is that the Greens slipped from 1st last year to 4th this year. 

Analysis - An absolute crash in the Lib Dem vote.  There was a by-election here just before the 2009 elections which saw the Lib Dems almost take second place, which accounts for the good Lib Dem showing here, but this result speaks volumes. 

Analysis - The only ward in Norwich where the Lib Dems run a proper local Focus on a regular basis.  Regular leaflets, full canvass and local candidates do make a difference. Lakenham 2009 CC result - LD 877 Lab 743 UKIP 437 Con 361 Gre 353 2010 City result - Labour 899 Liberal Democrats 652 Green Party 608 Conservative 243 UKIP 113

Analysis - Lib Dems have gained this seat for the last two elections but fell some way short.  Mancroft 2009 CC result Gre 1123 LD 525 Lab 510 Con 315 2010 City result Green Party 813 Labour 673 Liberal Democrats 371 Conservative 305

Analysis -Taking in to account that turnout was down by one third, Lib Dem support was broadland unchanged, but this seat was a Green gain from the Lib Dems. University 2009 CC result - Lab 1047 Gre 914 Con 342 LD 271 2010 City result - Labour 1,164 Green Party 409 Liberal Democrats 123 Conservative 140

Analysis - This seat was a Lab/LD marginal from 1990 to 2005.  The Lib Dems won this seat in 2002 with more than 1500 votes !  Wensum 2009 CC result - Gre 1260 Lab 561 Con 442 LD 285 2010 City result - Green Party 887 Labour 743 Conservative 233 Liberal Democrats 172

Analysis - Lib Dem vote slightly down. 

We can no longer blame the Greens for our decline in Norwich.  They have "topped out" in Norwich, failing to win seats they won last year, and seeing formerly safe seats like Wensum now look very vulnerable. 

The Lib Dem vote was down in almost every ward, despite some really good campaigns and an effective local MP who is already building a reputation as a good constituency representative. 

Anyone who visited the Norwich campaign HQ during the campaign would have known that the Lib Dems did not fight a losing campaign, but what is clear is that local campaigns will count for little in the face of people seeing us a betraying our election promises in order to get a taste of power as the Tories sidekicks. 

Yes, I know that this is not a sign that Labour will automatically win Norwich South next time as they did well yesterday on a low turnout.  But it is a sign to Lib Dems, particularly in areas where Labour are the main opposition, that people are deeply unhappy with the Lib Dems and we can expect to see our council representation decimated next May in the local elections. 

Parties in power always lose representation at the local level.  That's part of the problem with local democracy being used as a proxy for national politics - and assertion also imply by this article. 

The real question is do you have the staying power for government or will you fall victim to the temptation of the prisoner's dilemma.  Labour are betting you will take the option of saving your political careers at the expense of the country - I have no idea if they are right. 

Although the Tories lost a seat, their vote held up well overall, far better than the lib Dem vote.  It's clear the electorate are choosing to blame the Lib Dem for the Tories being in government. 

There is, of course, worse to come.  In May 2015 there will be a GE and local eleciton on the same day.  Imagine the electoral wipeout the lib Dems will get then when people vote on national issues, not local ones.  You can expect to see Lib Dem MPs defeated and thousands of councillors (the party's best activists) lose out too. 

Nick, your party colleagues are not listening.  They ahve their fingers in their ears and don't want to see aht is obvious to voters. 

As a Labour voter, I sympathise with you.  The country needs a strong three party system to give people an alternative in areas where the second party cannot win.  Labour cannot provide an alternative to the Tories in much of the south, but the LDs have.  But as an adjuct of the Cons, you have now handed swathes of the country back to the Cons. 

Good news for us in the red camp in Northern cities and the Midalnds though. 

It's difficult enough at the moment Nick so rather than complain why don't you direct your energies constructively.  We have an opportunity next week in East Chesterton and then in Watford to put the record straight. 

I agree Nick this is a warning, we should listen.  I always wish local politics was not influenced by national politics but I fear it is.  I do think that this is not only unfair on the councillors that work hard but unfair on the people themselves who need the best people for the job (not always lib dems). 

I do think that in some cases the LAbour attacks on us have been much harsher than on the tories and this is also having some effect as people believe a messages if its banged into them for long enough. 

A typically hysterical peice from Comrade Starling.  There were 33 contests that day of which only 5 resulted in a change.  The net effect was Labour +1, Tories -1, Libdems no change.  Thats hardly the political earthquake Labour were predicting. 

I am more concerned with the current opinion polls, which if they are to believed puts us in an uncomfortable place for the locals next May. But I guess that's the price you pay of being in Government? 

Yeah, but that's not up against Labour - we were up over 10%.  And that's with a very effective Lib Dem attempt to run a squeeze campaign and claim voting Labour would let the Tories in. 

With the Tories clearly having failed to break through (they were the night's big losers), running such a squeeze next time will be difficult. 

Add in the potential that the Greens might actually do something, anything at all, in the ward next time it's the Lib Dems who look more likely to be squeezed. 

You ran a good campaign in East Chesterton and I won't take that away from you, but you only beat us by 8% in a ward that we haven't worked properly for years before the by-election.  And East Chesterton is only about the 7th or 8th best Labour ward in the city.  If I was a Kings Hedges or Arbury councillor, I would be worrying right now. 

It's arguable how effective the new constituency MP is seen to be when it took him so long to start dealing with cases and mail, and to appoint his staff.  He may also come to regret siting his office on a business estate and not somewhere more central for ease of access by all his constituents, including those reliant on public transport.  At the moment, he seems to symbolise what the public see as the recent behaviour of the LibDem Party as a whole - concerned more with grabbing power at any price, rather than with standing up for what used to be seen to be core LibDem values.