Karen Stintz’s departure could reshape Toronto’s mayoral race, more through the appearance of momentum than a mass movement of her supporters to one candidate. 

The former TTC chair has consistently polled below 5 per cent, a small but significant bloc of voters who could move to fellow right-leaning centrist John Tory, to fellow female candidate Olivia Chow, to fellow Scarborough subway booster Rob FordRob Ford, or to David Soknacki, a fellow alternative to those “Big 3” names. 

However, Stintz’s key advisers are establishment Conservatives and Liberals most likely to break to Tory despite their significant differences over transit expansion — a trend that could enhance a poll-driven perception that Tory has momentum leading into the home stretch. 

One Stintz adviser, prominent Conservative Vic Gupta, confirmed to the Star hours after the exit announcement Thursday where she did not endorse another candidate, that he is in the Tory camp. 

“It was very difficult for Karen, against three really well-known candidates, for her reasonable, competent, small-c conservative voice to cut through,” said Gupta, a public relations consultant and failed 2014 Ontario Progressive Conservative candidate in Richmond Hill. 

“In terms of seeing strong fiscal accountability at city hall, putting more city funding into transit and representing the city in a way we can all be proud of, I’m joining and supporting John Tory,” said Gupta, who was Tory’s deputy campaign director during the 2003 mayoral race that saw David Miller elected. 

Gupta and sources in Tory’s camp say they expect other advisers to follow, but none contacted Thursday would comment. 

Stintz said in an interview shortly after her press conference that she decided about a week ago to drop out — despite repeated vows to hang in until the end — after seeing a Forum Research poll first reported in the Star. 

The poll, conducted Aug. 5-6, suggested a sudden decline in Chow support among women gave a surging Tory his biggest lead to date. 

“I saw that voters were moving and they were not moving to me ...” Stintz said. “ Every day was just harder and harder and when my numbers didn’t move, and I wasn’t getting momentum, it was harder to get volunteers, harder to get money, harder to get my message out.” 

Stintz, first elected in Ward 16 Eglinton-Lawrence in 2003 after answering a candidate recruitment ad placed by a ratepayers’ group, said she will not jump into the race for her council seat.  She plans, at least for now, to exit politics altogether, and confirmed that she plans to apply for the job of CFL commissioner, replacing Mark Cohon. 

Another reason for her departure from the race, said Stintz, is that she didn’t want her legacy to be viewed as finishing a campaign with 5 per cent support. 

“I fought for more than that for the last 11 years and I’ve built a strong community and I’ve contributed to the city and I’ve fought for funded transit — I wanted that to be my legacy.” 

Chow, Ford and Soknacki were quick, along with Tory, to praise Stintz’s contribution to civic life and, at least indirectly, court her supporters. 

Chow, the former NDP MP, appeared at city hall to argue that she and Stintz have similar priorities, including construction of a downtown relief subway line — even though Stintz said in the campaign Chow as mayor would be a disastrous return to the days of left-leaning Miller. 

Chow said: “And I’ve seen her many times encouraging women to participate in politics and I will continue to carry on that torch.”  Asked if, as mayor, she might appoint Stintz to a transit position, Chow said: “I would give that serious consideration.” 

In an interview, Chow communications director Jamey Heath noted Stintz’s criticism of the funding of Tory’s “SmartTrack” transit plan, adding: “There’s no reason to expect a big boost for somebody like Mr. Tory who has been offside with Ms Stintz on most of the policies.” 

Mayor Ford, who famously battled Stintz on transit expansion before they found common ground on a Scarborough subway plan, said Stintz is “very fiscally responsible with taxpayers’ money, I respect that, and we’re on the same side of the agenda.” 

Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said that if Stintz’s departure has any impact, it will likely help Tory and hurt Ford. 

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“You have four centre-right candidates and it feels like there is a consolidation behind one of them, while it’s hard to see a Stintz supporter moving behind Ford given the very public battles they’ve had,” he said. 

“If the election is tight and Stintz could deliver even 3 per cent, that’s significant.” 

Ryerson politics professor Myer Siemiatycki said it appears Stintz’s support was more significant in the old city of Toronto than in the inner suburbs. 

“Given that, my hunch is those votes up for grabs are for John Tory or Olivia Chow.” 

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