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3l_MNjhQi6M | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l_MNjhQi6M | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why the United States is suing Apple over antitrust allegations | the Department of Justice accusing Apple of violating antitrust laws by blocking its Rivals from accessing both hardware and software features on its iPhone devices now this is the culmination of a 5-year probe into one of the world's most valuable technology companies here's what attorney general Merrick Garland had to say just moments ago monopolies like apples threaten the free and fair markets upon which our economy is based they stifle Innovation they hurt producers ERS and workers and they increase costs for consumers if left unchallenged Apple will only continue to strengthen its smartphone Monopoly well for more on this Yahoo finance Tech editor Dan Howley is here with more so Dan give us your big takeaways here what do we know yeah Melle I think the the main thing that you would look at here is how broad the scope uh of this suit is it really seems to go after uh virtually every part of Apple business related to uh the iPhone and app store they they they specifically call out uh Apple allegedly blocking access to things uh like digital wallets ability to use the tap to pay feature um so that would be if a third-party uh uh wallet developer wanted to go ahead and give you the ability to not only use their app but then go up to a uh payment terminal uh at your you know local store you wouldn't be able to tap to pay you would only be able to do that uh with Apple's wallet uh and so they go after Apple for that they talk about how the Apple watch is only compatible with the iPhone rather than Android devices uh and how Apple makes it more difficult for uh users of third-party watches those that are not the Apple watch to use them uh on the iPhone by limiting functionality it also uh calls out the App Store uh and how it controls that uh and the App Store fees that it offers it further calls out uh the limiting uh Apple limiting the use of super apps so-called uh individ apps that let you control multiple uh different smaller apps within them something that Elon Musk is trying to create with x uh they also uh refer to uh things like cloud gaming uh Microsoft has been heavy on Apple with this where they want to get their uh Xbox cloud gaming app onto the iPhone and iPad uh but haven't been able to so they force uh users to go to a website instead of an actual app which would make it easier so it really seems as though they're going after a broad number of things with regards to the iPhone itself and in fact mer Garland uh talks about uh in a a release uh the issue with the green and blue bubbles when it comes to uh messaging saying that apple is basically doing that itself and making users less secure when they speak between uh iPhone users and Android users uh and that they can change that on their own if they wanted to so you know I I think the the main thing to look at is uh the potential impact this could have on some of Apple's key businesses that that includes Services through the App Store uh that includes wearables through the the Apple watch and then obviously the iPhone because uh if they make uh if they they're forced to make these changes uh it may make Android phones more appealing uh to other users now that that all depends right there's the status symbol that the iPhone stands for for a lot of consumers there's also uh since so many consumers are are now used to it uh the comfortability that people have uh with iPhone so they may stick uh around because of that there's also uh just the the idea that you've already purchased so many Goods that go along with the iPhone and seem to work better with it which uh the the uh lawsuit uh is basically calling out that could be a reason why uh you may want to stick with apple but you know if there are options out there that look more attractive after this suit uh then people may start to try those out test the waters with with Android uh devices maybe Android SmartWatches maybe that means uh different app stores that they're able to access uh so it it could be a big change and just on the App Store front really quick know this is already changing in the EU as a result of the digital markets act there's going to be third party app stores on IOS and Android by the way uh and uh epic games said that they're going to release their own app store on IOS and Android uh in that region so uh it's not something that isn't unheard of obviously with within the EU how long it takes if it ever takes place in the US we'll just have to wait and see indeed but clearly Apple in the eye there of regulators on both sides uh both sides there appreciate you breaking that down for us our very own Dan Howley |
AA7MeRnadpk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA7MeRnadpk | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Investors aren't 'out of the woods yet' and should remain cautious, adviser says | all right well not too many surprises from the Federal Reserve at Wednesday's meeting but the fomc holding rat steady once again and maintaining its forecast to cut rates three times this year the Central Bank working hard to bring inflation back down to its 2% Target with the Central Bank working hard to bring it down to that 2% Target investors are still trying to navigate this sticky backdrop for more on how to successfully invest and protect your portfolio ahead of the fed's rate Cuts I'm joined by Anthony sakaro Providence financial and insurance Services president thank you for your time this morning here so we heard from the FED staying the course here didn't change the Dot Plot here although moving it out somewhat here if you're an investor and you're seeing this and you're seeing the market reaction here how should you play this right now so what we tend to focus on with our clients is focusing on uh Investments that are going to pay income we're not out of the woods yet uh and I think that's what investors are starting to believe that maybe we're out of the woods at this point uh the inflation is under control it's it's it's started to slow although it's had a couple of upticks all the economic data looks great uh the Federal Reserve is still targeted to lower several times this year although that's not as much as they were planning at the beginning of the year the Market's still looking to that but that could turn if the economic data turns and starts to go downward then the Federal Reserve uh is going to lower rates but if the data stays strong there's nothing that says that they're going to lower rates as a matter of fact they could tick up another time I don't think that's going to happen but it's not out of the woods but right now I think you want to be cautious and I think you want to focus on things that are going to give you dividends and income because that is the bird in the hand if you're younger keep dollar cost averaging in equities if you've got 10 or more years that's still going to play out if you're older you may want to caution up a little bit take some ships off the table and focus on things that are going to give you income so that as you're taking withdrawals from your portfolio you're not having to sell shares to do it you're getting it from interest and dividends I think those are two good time frames and strategies to consider so Anthony then for those who are perhaps preparing to retire obviously a bit of a precarious position they sort of in this weit and see mode how should they approach this well we're in a very interesting time with regards to Those About to retire you know traditional wisdom says that you want to you'll start to decrease your aggressiveness decrease your level of risk decrease your Holdings of stock as you approach retirement well in the past that means shifting to bonds or Bond likee struments things that are going to pay some kind of a yield and if we were having this conversation two or three years ago well uh the fact is interest rates were much lower at that point yields were much lower at that point and all of a sudden we'd be going from a stock market where we've had some good growth over the last decade to now lower yields and that wasn't attractive but as interest rates have gone up what's happened is it's driven the price of fixed income Investments down and uh and and the yields up so for the first time in like four decades investors that are approaching retirement can buy fixed income Investments at a decreased price and get two benefits locking in a higher yield uh which is certainly competitive and and for the longer run and buying something at a discount so when the Federal Reserve lowers rates they might even be able to get some growth on that at the time that they need it so it's a potentially a good time to go back to a 6040 portfolio or or maybe even the other way around for people going to retire because bonds and fixed income can be used potentially today as a capital appreciation play over the next couple years it's a good time for fixed income and Anthony obviously a lot of people you know watching the equity rally watching the major indices closing at highs again yesterday it could be tempting to sort of jump on this as you're continuing to see the market climb what are three things people should keep in mind when they see this rally well they see you know obviously Apple under pressure today tempted to buy the dip how should they approach this yeah so you don't want to make decisions emotionally when you are investing you know no good decisions happen when you are reacting what you need to do is you need to have a plan in place and that plan needs to be something that is built on some Foundation that makes sense um you you need to know uh you need to be able to put yourself in a position to win no matter what uh I don't like it when investors are in a situation whether they're retired or not retired that they can only win if the market does well um if you are considering if if you're in retirement for example uh we have conversations with people all the time that want to take income out of their portfolio and and they're selling shares to do it they're cannibalizing their principle the fact is that if they're invested in fixed income then they can live off the interest and dividends and if you're invested right for that stage of Life those interest and dividends are going to come in no matter who's President no matter what wars are going on no matter what the stock market does those are going to wind up coming in Period and you can count on those so the fact is that um that that you you want to be able to invest so that no matter what happens you win and I think that's an important consideration indeed important not to make those uh temporary decisions there on on reflex action I appreciate you joining us as always Anthony sakaro Providence financial and insurance services president thank you so much |
8d3nOm8Nvmc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d3nOm8Nvmc | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Reddit IPO gives investors a new chance to buy into AI, analyst says | investors are on the edge of their seats as the first big Tech IPO of the Year set to begin trading any moment now Reddit you can see the mascot SN on your screen right there is expected to start at the higher end of well it priced right around 34 bucks a share now this comes after shares of the company aeric Labs jumped 72% in its public debut yesterday we want to bring in Don Butler he is Tom vest Adventures managing director Don it's great to see you here so we saw Reddit price at at the top end of its range lots of excitement ahead of that first trade what do you think we'll see today uh you know uh I I I actually think we'll see a similar sort of jump uh during the the market day you know one of the things we found is that U oftentimes I I think the metric of a good IPO from a banking standpoint is something like a 10% pop the first day um and so when I see the 17 from yesterday I think U you know that that feels you know indic an indication of both the investor interest in New insuance but also I think um with Reddit in particular you know you got sort of this this combination of both uh a well-known consumer brand the first uh sort of public offering in several years of one of the in effect sort of a social network and then on top of that you have sort of data revenues coming in from Ai and so I think uh AI licensing and so I think what you're going to see is you're going to see investors who see this as a way to buy into the next wave of generative AI aside from the means that they've had thus far you know th far you've had companies like Nvidia and others and those have had a great run but I think this gives investors a new chance to uh to sort of buy into the the next generation of Technology here yeah Don so we've had a lot of companies say that they're playing around experimenting with they putting some of their own Capital towards R&D with regard to generative AI either for productivity or for solutions that they could put into the market how can Reddit come out and prove that to the street over time well it's uh if you remember they had this uh licensing deal that they announced with Google that was you know something on the order of like 60 million for the first year uh and you know basically they can use their data to help train large language models and I think the the thing that'll be interesting is to see the training revenues uh one can they extend this to other can they can they build on those revenues with other large language model developers and two uh will we see that the way that large language models evolve will it be a a continuous training and therefore each successive model that is built doesn't need to sort of access the full data set of the pre of that is out there such as RIT data or can it build off of its sort of existing learnings and go from there and so I I think what you'll see is in the first year I think they're one of the you know uh few companies that actually has like material revenues that you can point to related to generative AI that that is substantive uh but then will that continue and build uh next year and the year Beyond I I think that's the thing it's going to be really interesting to watch here Dom when it comes to some of the volatility that's expected because of the shares that they were offering to some of their users here some of those fears valid or do you think the expectation that it's going to add to this volatility might be a bit overblown at this point you know um my own experience in buying in I worked for a company that offered a directed share program bought in that uh in in that case you know as an employee of the company as opposed to here where you have sort of early participants in the ecosystem uh my experience has been that the people who benefit from those tend to be the people who have been with the company the longest or in this case the the people who've been posting on Reddit or moderating forms for the longest period of time and I actually tend to think that they'll be more loyal to the to the platform like I I think they you know I think you'll see some volatility because of the broader investor demand uh I think that'll lead to a jump and yes you might see some people sell some of their shares but I I don't think it'll be quite as uh quite as dramatic of a sell-off as others have have indicated my own experience was you know the people who understood the company the best and sort of were aligned with the long-term success of the company the most tended to be people like the folks that I think are going to get U be be participating in the directed share program and Don when we think about Reddit as a company and how it's defining itself versus companies that won public prior to it Pinterest didn't want to be looked at as a social media company snap said they were a camera company when they won public how should the street be evaluating Reddit as a company you know uh the it's funny I actually when I think of analoges I actually think of folks like Pinterest so you know I think that's actually quite accurate one of the things that uh and to give you an example of why U so uh it's interesting we used to do quite a bit of investing in the attech industry so uh as I was looking at the IPO I reached out to friends of mine who are still uh placing advertising invent at at consumer Brands and said you know what's the experience of being an Advertiser on Reddit how does that compare to other brands and you know basically it's like well it's sort of similar to buying on Pinterest or similar to buying on next door or these other uh communities where you have very high engagement but uh but at the same time it's not the Performance Marketing machine that you have with companies like meta or Google or Amazon these days really interesting stuff Don Butler thanks so much for taking the time to join here again we are expecting the first trade of Reddit any minute now Tom Don Butler of Tom vest Adventures managing director thank you thank you |
6uNlUAeOH_Q | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6uNlUAeOH_Q | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How social media companies traded post-IPO | well as we gear up for reddit's IPO we want to take a trip down memory lane at past social media public debuts Yahoo finances jar blicker joins us with that breakdown been a minute since we've had a pure play social media company here yes it has and check out this leaderboard who's at the very top there it's not meta it's Facebook way back in the day listing on May 18th 2012 that was a horrendous uh black eye for the NASDAQ Marketplace because the IPO did not go as planned lots of hiccups and in fact the company was called face plant because of that disastrous IPO for a brief time back in 2012 but investors hopefully forget these things now snap is another large one uh that's another one that came to Market 2017 compared to Facebook it was quite a bit smaller Facebook raised 16 billion or sold 16 billion snap only sold about 4 billion and by the way these are not the valuation numbers just how much they sold uh but then you go down the list and the other players admittedly quite a bit small here and we didn't even put all of them on the screen but for what it's worth Bumble coming to Market in February of 2021 and Pinterest in 2019 before the uh pandemic took hold but I thought it'd be interesting to chart some of the price action here and just to go back to some of the key features of the offering uh one of the last thing that iness said was very key here that there's a bunch of shares that have been um allocated to users here potential redditors 1.76 million of those shares that could come into to the market and be sold at any time they would not be subject to a lockup agreement so as an S said uh could provide some extra volatility but I thought it'd be interesting you know you take a look at the biggest at the biggest name here here is meta let's go to a Max chart let's not forget and you can't even see it here but the stock was down 60% in the months after its IPO and it took a year for it to get back in the green above that initial price there's never a hurry to get into these IPOs indeed appreciate you breaking that down for us our very own Jared blicker |
CskXZKQPmLc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CskXZKQPmLc | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | US DOJ sues Apple over iPhone antitrust issues | breaking news the justice department alongside 16 Attorneys General filing an antitrust lawsuit against Apple just moments ago the doj accusing Apple of violating antitrust laws by blocking its Rivals from accessing both hardware and software features on its iPhone devices our legal reporter Alexis Keenan joining us now on set with these details Alexis what are we learning yeah so um so far this is what Bloomberg is reporting we're waiting to get a copy of the suit and what it says is that these age and the doj have filed antitrust claims against Apple in federal court in New Jersey and it's targeting the iPhone ecosystem saying that the company maintains its dominance over that ecosystem by blocking competition for services like Financial Services businesses so think about payment apps um also device trackers things like the air tag um and what they're saying is that apple is stifling Innovation stifling competition alleging that the company is using it power over this app Distribution on the app phone in order to block competition now in response apple is saying this the lawsuit threatens who we are and the principles that set Apple products apart in fiercely competitive markets if successful it would hinder our ability to create the kind of Technology people expect from Apple where Hardware software and services intersect it would also set a dangerous precedent they say empowering the government to take a heavy hand in designing people's technology now it this is a major Target against Apple because if you take a look at its annual revenues for 2023 you have the iPhone right as its biggest driver of Revenue $200 billion last year um so this is a major threat to the company and if you go back to the lawsuit that the Anti-Trust lawsuit that epic and apple were battling out over the course of the last few years that the doj joined that lawsuit it had to do with the App Store um but importantly it was targeting part of this ecosystem now uh you have the iPhones the App Store iatch iMessage air tags all potentially involved in this suit um but just such a big deal and during the testimony in that apple and epic trial Tim Cook got up took the stand and what he was talking about was that Apple needs to produce its products in this way in this ecosystem because they say it protects people's data security protects their personal privacy this apple said was of Pinnacle importance to the company they want to be able to produce products this way so I would not be surprised if when we hear Apple's response further in this case if we might hear Echoes of that and that's what I'm seeing here in this statement from Apple saying that it would be a dangerous precedent for the government to have a hand and trying to tell companies how they should do things like protect data and precedent is the key word here too because it's not just the US and how they would potentially look at it Regulators here but then also elsewhere around the world where might they face similar tests and how could that mindset that now the doj and uh multiple Attorneys General that they're moving with moving forward with how could that permeate more broadly and potentially impact apple as well yeah it already has arguably right because you had the EU uh the European commission its antitrust regulator there just last week or so a $2 billion fine against Apple but it was targeting the way that the company handles music apps within the App Store so most of the litigation so far most of the anti-rust complaints have been specifically about the App Store so what this does is it really broadens that antitrust lens we still need to take a harder look and a more detailed look at this complaint to get to uh the actual the specifics here but no doubt this is a major broadening of what is being targeted in Apple's products and Alexis I'm curious in terms of what this could also tell us us about further pressure for not just Apple but also for some of the other Tech competitors out there very different business models obviously this specifically targeting the App Store and iPhone but but what this could I guess lend to some of the activity that we could see given the focus that we see from the doj on Apple at this point yes and not just doj the FTC as well right so Apple's been kind of this latecomer getting on the uh defense side of these antitrust arguments you have the doj's case against Google in Washington DC pending against search and search advertising any minute now we could get a decision from the judge in that case that one's being handled by a judge big case against Google there uh also you have the FTC going after Amazon going after Facebook in unsettled cases you have another case with States going after Google on similar grounds so Apple now being added to this Fray uh certainly the Biden Administration making these major pushes on the antitrust front against these big tech companies but also these investigations many of them started with the Trump Administration so we can't necessarily say uh it's all attributable to the Biden Administration and look this case this apple case this will extend long long past this current Administration and if uh if the history is any uh indicator we could see these cases go out as as far as decades right in the case of Microsoft and uh they can go on quite a long time yeah absolutely massive case for us to track going forward Alexis thanks so much for joining on the snap here uh to make sure that we could break this down appreciate it |
Faw25owr6-0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Faw25owr6-0 | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Reddit CEO: In an AI world... human-generated content becomes more valuable | big moment in the history of Reddit which was founded in 2005 and that big day of course occurring at the New York Stock Exchange let's get right to Reddit uh co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman Steve good to see you here congrats on this big IPO hey Brian thank you so much uh I'm hearing indications might be between 42 to 46 the IPO priced at about uh $34 what do you are you surprised by that you know honestly the price is the last thing on my mind um we've we've been on this journey together for for years uh with our team with our community and today's a day that's what I told the team is it's just a day obviously it's not just a day but it it's certainly uh it's an exciting moment but you know we're building this for the long term so I want to uh focus in on the on the co-founder aspect of your title 2005 who is Steve Huffman today the leader compared to 2005 oh my goodness I mean when we started Reddit I was 21 I just graduated from school um building something like Reddit to be in this moment was not even on my radar um like we we we were a couple of kids building a platform because it was fun living in the moment and so to be here today is really literally a dream come true and in a real honor how is your life going to change now that you're a public company CEO well I'm having another kid in a month so honestly like today's the day and then you know on to the next uh on to the next adventure um but look Life Is Life is full of Adventures I think we never know what's what's in front of us and so I'm just uh I'm just here to take it all in you've been out on the road show uh what past two weeks but there was a lot of preparation even before the last two weeks but within the past two weeks what have you heard from institutional investors you know this process people warned me about the road show I actually really enjoyed it I I've met so many great investors uh and like I love talking about Reddit and I love seeing for folks when the when the light bulb goes off and they they start to get it um and so I've had a lot of that uh in in the last couple of weeks and so think we put together a good team has it been difficult for investors to get it you know Reddit is unique and special right it's so deep and so one of the things I did over the last couple of years with investors is actually showed Reddit I did a lot of demoing my my thinking is like uh we want our users to be investors but we want our investors to be users as well and so I think sometimes we just have to I can only talk so much so just showing it off is the best way to go did you get pushed that Google deal we talked a little bit off camera that was that's a big win for Reddit um are institutional investors pushing you to make more deals with big cap tech companies to help feed their large language models I I'd say investors uh I wouldn't frame it as pushing I think they're very interested in where this company can go and so we've got our ads business today in the core of Reddit think of that as chapter one and then I think of chapters 2 and three as the user economy and then what we're doing on the data side you know on the data side we've got almost two decades of human conversation about anything and everything and so in an AI world uh where everything is increasingly written by AIS the the human generated content actually becomes more valuable over time and so we're starting to see that the best response to artificial intelligence is actual intelligence should investors view Reddit as an AI play I think they should look at Reddit as a Community platform that has many paths to success so the ads the user economy data there's I think so many things we can do and so we're pursuing all of them there's been a lot of focus on the losses what 90 million 90 million point8 losses last year net loss basis but you actually had some profits in the back half of the year is this a full year of profits for the company yeah so exactly in the second half of the last year we were profitable on an adjusted Eva basis uh we grew costs uh uh slower than Revenue last year Revenue three times as fast and so I like the way the trend that we're on um and I think if we can keep doing that we're in great shape what gets you to sustainable profits look the work that we're doing right now I think our work is working um redddit we have such high margins that if we just continue to sell and we continue to be mindful about costs this company scales I think in a really impressive way I think uh of course retail investors are heavily invested in this you know allocate a large percentage of stock to them what's your message to those Reddit investors that have picked up stock today look I'd say thank you um you built Reddit uh one of the things I think is special about Reddit is our users have this incredible deep sense of ownership I mean they did create Reddit after all and so part of our uh purpose of doing all of this is so that our users canot just feel like owners but have the potential to be owners and so for those who invested I'm really happy to have them on the ride with us I I caught some of the conversations in this morning on various channels are you concerned and I think you me mentioned this in the S1 that this retail investor base adds unnecessary risk to the stock price look all in we want investors who love Reddit you know I've heard that story and of course uh we have to enumerate all of the potential risks in our perspectus but that's Reddit right Reddit is people Reddit is communities we're nothing without our users and uh if our users can be investors and vice versa I think that there's nothing more Reddit than that real quickly you left and then came back to the company 2015 right that's right how much longer do you see yourself running Reddit uh I've got my dream job and I know it's my dream job because I had a taste of the world outside of Reddit so I feel so profoundly grateful to have had a second chance at this I mean most people don't get a chance like this at all and I've had it twice and so I just feel this deep sense of gratitude and there's so much more we want to do with Reddit so well congratulations and uh good luck on Dad life you're going to be a busy guy over the next year Steve H appreciate |
VhpFhLXuUqE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhpFhLXuUqE | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Yahoo Finance: Market Coverage, Stocks, & Business News | the memory chip company also impressing Wall Street with its thir quarter guidance and so for more on what's ahead for the company and the Stellar results let's get to count managing director and Senior research analyst chrish Sankar chrish great to have you here with us you were one of the analysts that came out and said hey pretty good quarter I'm going to raise my price Target here what and and take us into your thesis here what really stuck out to you on this company's earnings results yeah sure Brad thanks for having me uh a couple of things I would say number one is obviously a beaten race was expected but they literally blasted past those numbers so even the most bullish expectations they they exceeded those numbers estimates second thing is obviously there's a huge demand for high bandwidth memory which is a type of dam and that demand is largely driven by AI applications and Micron literally had 0% share last year they gaining Traction in it and that's a positive for the stock and overall like out to go the next few years and I think the third and more impressive thing was the fact that last year was a cyclical down year for memory and d and Nan price bottom I would say about six months ago they've been on upswing and as the pricing continues to improve and their Factor start getting better utilized they get this amazing margin expansion story so pricing is good helps the revenue pricing plus utilization helps the grow margins that's you saw earnings power you know the street was expecting May Corder to have 9 cents in EPS we were one of the highest on the street in 25 cents they came and guided 45 cents chrish what about inventory levels because that's been one of the issues with the stock from many on the street what does that look like and and when you look out over the next couple of quarters how are you assessing that risk yeah surean I think the inventory levels have kind of come down quite a bit last year you had that issue where inventory was pretty high at the customers and also at the suppliers like Micron so they did have some inventory right down at Micron but then the customers started using up their inventory so I would probably say that on the AI server side obviously AI server is growing there's not any much inventory issue with the regular servers the non- AI servers lot of the inventories of the older ddr4 Dam ship and going forward everyone is going to buy ddr5 which is a more later greater version of the D and then obviously on the auto industrial side it's close to getting normal but it should probably normalize pretty soon so largely speaking I think inventory levels will come back to normal I think over the next few quarters or into next year you're going to see inventory levels probably start moving higher as people start building inventory for a surging demand and B on pricing chish how are you looking out for the next not just year but for the next two years potentially here when you have the company talking about expectations that dram and Nan pricing levels are going to increase further throughout calendar year 2024 and then in through fiscal year 2025 as well giving them some much improved profitability how does that factor into your kind of long-term Outlook yeah sure I think the pricing is kind of interesting uh pricing is really robust for high bandwidth memory which goes for AI servers on the ddr5 which is the non- AI server applications I think pricing has been pretty good A lot of the Investments today are in high band with memory so I me later into the year should probably see ddr5 pricing actually get better because there the demand drivers are smartphones PCS and non AI servers and smartphones and PCs are bottom but they haven't quite recovered yet they should probably start recovering into the back half of this year and into next year so I would say into like the next 6 to 9 to 12 months the pricing looks very optimistic you know if you ask me how to think about pricing in back half of calendar 25 into 2026 I would say at this time it's anybody's guess it's very hard to forecast that far out but at this point momentum is definitely in your favor and because hbm is being driven by AI applications and this tremendous demand for that and hbm die size for the chip size is like almost three times bigger than your regular Dam it also helps absorb under utilization and helps with the pricing too Chris when you take a look at these numbers and The Surge uh in demand that we have seen should Micron is is Micron being viewed right now as one of the biggest beneficiaries that we are seeing from this boost in AI spending yes for sure um you know uh if you look at uh the AI chips for example like you know Nvidia introduced you know something called h100 then h200 then recently they introduced the black whe chip say b00 and every AI uh chip goes with a high bandwidth memory uh chip attached to it and the H1 to h200 the memory attach rate went higher and now Edge 200 to the black well it's almost another 30 33% higher so that basically says that for every Nvidia GP you're selling is there's more memory content attached to it so that obviously is a benefit for memory companies and then eventually like you know if there's more demand for AI servers and as AI penetrates more to the world is going to be good for the memory companies and obviously Micron is a good beneficiary the other two uh players have been SK hex is very strong in hbm and then Samsung is slowly coming up there yeah we certainly saw the reaction in Samsung stock earlier this week all right Chris always great to talk to you thanks so much for joining us here on Yahoo finance this morning thank you |
PMmgOyb89Mo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMmgOyb89Mo | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin halvings typically followed by 18-month rally, analyst says | all right Bitcoin rebounding on the back of the FED decision this week now trading back above 67,000 now the cryptocurrency has certainly been on a wild ride to say the least since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year and it's also taken many of the crypto related stocks along for the ride but as Bitcoin having comes into view could the crypto landscape be set for a new state of mind we want to bring in Mark Palmer he is Ben Mark senior research analyst Mark it's great to have you here so we certainly have seen the Seesaw action play out over the last several weeks not necessarily anything new when we're talking about the price of bit Bitcoin but as we look ahead to the having what do you think the pricing activity is going to look like yes um well thanks for having me good to talk to you uh what we are seeing right now is not unusual if you take a step back and and look at the history of the having as an event uh what we saw in two previous having uh which occurred in uh 2016 and 2020 is that there were um significant retracements in price ahead of that event in 2016 it was close to 40% um in 2020 uh it was more around 20% Which uh is essentially uh what we've seen in the 2024 cycle you know what what's going on here I think it's a couple of things uh one is the uncertainty ahead of the having when uh for those who don't know that the Bitcoin having is when the uh rewards that are paid to miners for for each block that they mine are cut in half so the profitability of the miners is cut in half and hence a lot of miners uh tend to uh leave the market uh it's almost like a a wildfire that cleans out the Bitcoin mining space that means that the amount of computational power hash rate associated with Bitcoin mining um goes down uh around the world you end up seeing a lot of volatility around that event but again what's important to from our perspective is what has happened historically after the having in 2016 we saw that volatility ahead of the having then the price of Bitcoin went up 6X um in uh or in 2016 it was 17x actually in 2020 it was 6X the the point being that we typically see an extended rally after the having uh that goes on for something around 18 months Mark to what extent does the ETFs and the inflows that we've seen and and now more recently I guess some of the the outflows from ETFs in recent days here that event and and that introduction into the market in itself what does that introduce in terms of some of the perhaps atypical activity that might take place given that Bitcoin is hitting a all time alltime highs before the having and then you've got the ETFs both of those things not happening before yeah that's uh a really good point because uh the having itself is a supply shock you know the uh supply of new Bitcoin introduced into the market uh declines uh at each time that we have a having what we are seeing this go around is also a demand shock uh with the introduction of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs all of the inflows that are associated with that um why is that different because Bitcoin from its Beginnings uh has been uh a retail instrument it's the rare asset class where retail has led institutions have really lagged behind now we're uh positioned to see more of a catchup on the institutional front we're certainly seeing that in terms of uh the uptick and yes it is extending into the the stocks that are associated uh with Bitcoin you know a couple of the ones that we cover micro strategy uh and uh bit deer which is one of the Bitcoin miners you know we we've seen a significant pickup uh in both of those um which uh in some cases micro strategy um you know is reflected in a premium uh to the underlying Holdings of of Bitcoin that it has uh so we're going to see some volatility around uh all of this as we head into what is really a colossal event for the space you know Mark while we are talking about it here you mentioned micro strategy and I'm curious because uh micro strategy CEO uh chairman I believe Michael sailor was on Yahoo finance last week he was talking to Julie Heyman and she was asking him just about the endgame here for micro strategy as the company continues to buy more and more Bitcoin I'm curious how you're evaluating that as an analyst so not so much the shortterm story here for mic strategy but what you think that long-term reaction and pricing action could look like yeah you know the um that you aren't going to find a stock that is going to be as correlated to the price of Bitcoin as micro strategy is as I mentioned you know the stock is and it has in the past uh been trading at a premium to the company's underlying uh Bitcoin Holdings um I think what you see now is an opportunity for micro strategy to extend its reach Beyond just hold uh Bitcoin which is and will continue to be its core uh but the the uh management team and Michael saor the executive chairman have said that they really want to be a Bitcoin development company um people forget that Bitcoin is not just a cryptocurrency it's also an underlying blockchain and that there is significant building that is going on on that blockchain that is something that micr strategy uh is looking to get into leveraging what had been the core of micro strategy from its founding over 30 years ago which is its enterprise software business so uh there's there's more to micro strategy than simply acquiring uh Bitcoin uh that is uh the core of what uh the company is it's it's the core of our valuation and you know we we do believe that um micro strategy is very well positioned you know we are assuming that the price of Bitcoin reaches 125,000 by the end of 2025 micro strategy will be among the beneficiaries of that up search and Mark we got to go is is micro strategy the company right now that is best positioned in terms of the managed blockchain solutions that are anticipated to be introduced to the market here uh it's actually newer to the game as it pertains to those um you know there are a lot of private companies uh that are uh developing or have been developing Solutions uh particularly on the infrastructure front yeah um but what's exciting is the fact that uh micr strategy clearly has the expertise uh they they have the network uh they have the ability to add uh this component of of their business right um and and I think that that's going to be important in the longer term Mark Palmer always a pleasure to get some of your time thanks so much for taking the uh time here with us on Yahoo finance Benchmark senior research analyst Mark Palmer good to see you |
t5TglG_6vC0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t5TglG_6vC0 | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why this strategist is bullish on the market following the Fed's March FOMC meeting | all right well stocks rallying to record highs after the Federal Reserve maintained its outlook for three rate Cuts this year the S&P opening above 5200 pushing even closer and closer to that 5300 level you've got the Dow up nearly 200 points here at the open Keith larner of truist co-chief investment officer joining us now Keith it's great to see you here so I guess first just your reaction here this March that we continue to see two record highs as March to the UPS upside anything going to stop the Market's momentum anytime soon yeah well great to be back with you Shauna and Brad I wish I was in studio with you all but this is a good second um you know listen I I think what we're seeing is we're in a bull market bull market rules apply and what tends to happen in a bull market is the surprises tend to be the upside I mean of course there's going to be something at some point that we're GNA have a gut check I mean we've only had um like one or two days of that if you go back the last 30 40 years it's very unusual not to have at least you know at some point 5% correction but I think more importantly as an investor you know you want to stick with the primary Trend that primary trend is positive and it's being supported by fundamentals as well um the forward earning estimates for the S&P just made another another record high and that's been happening almost every week um as well so I think the bottom line is that the primary trend is is positive if if you do have pullbacks which we will have use those as an opportunity but it's not a place even if we get a little bit extended on a short-term basis that we would be selling into Kei there are probably a lot of investors out there that might be wondering where a safe place to invest in the market is when the market is already at record highs do they just go and pile into the crowded trade or are there other areas that are catching your eye right now yeah well the first thing I will just say is that new highs make investors nervous but new Highs are not a bad thing when we look back historically when you make new highs the forward returns are actually positive and the other thing we have to kind of keep in context here is the market didn't do anything for two years right it went down in 2022 up in 2023 but over that period you were flat our work suggests after you you're flat for two years and you break out um the probability of positive returns is is well above average now going back to your specific point um on areas I we still like Tech we still like Communications um we like um financials which are at a a new high but still well below where they were several years ago um um so there are pockets of opportunity um you know the eated S&P also just broke out to a new high but didn't do anything for a few years also we're neutral small caps but I will say that is a cheap area of the market that you could also see some catch up there as well so I still think there's plenty of opportunities in in the overall market right now Keith are you a little bit more bullish on small caps after what we heard from pal yesterday and what was included in the uh summary of economic projections just in terms of GDP holding up even better than initially thought yeah Len I want to be because they're really cheap um the one thing that we've noticed in our work and what we're waiting for some confirmation is is I talked about those forward earning estimates for the the broad-based market moving up we're not seeing that same trend for small Caps or midcaps they're weaker so I'd like to see that move up but strictly from a valuation standpoint if the yields come down you'd probably get a bigger rip in small cap so I think the way I would say is we're sticking with large caps but for those that are underweight small caps I think at to your point if if if yields come down further that would be a positive for small caps because they have so much floating rate that they're more sensitive to interest rates so I I I do think there's an opportunity there Keith According to some uh fact set data over the quarter and the earnings period in season I should say we're at the second highest level of mentions of AI on earnings calls here what does that signal to you about where investors should be considering or thinking about what's actually going to play out after this hype phase uh and many of these companies have to deliver on that through their earnings well I think when you start to see you know companies that only have like you know small EXP to Ai No exposure they start talking about it you have to raise your antenna a bit saying hey there's some speculative Parts people getting really positive because the markets at an all-time high so you just have to be mindful I mean we remember back in the late 90s that we would start seeing something similar about doc companies would change their names to have a.com so I think that's something to keep in mind more broadly though Brad I will say what we just looked back more recently at Tech recent out performance um is is a little bit over 30% over the last three years is relative to the S&P you go go back to uh you know the peak in 2000 Tex outperformance was 250% so again 250% versus 30 we're not seeing a broad-based bubble but we're certainly seeing pockets of speculation that I think investors just have to be mindful that you know things don't go straight up and those more speculative areas obviously have more risk Keith how are you looking at an IPO like R not specifically the company but what that good signal just in terms of renewed interest in certain areas of the market well I think it would be would be healthy uh you know we're not as much as the Market's up I mentioned earlier new highs back in the 90s people would get excited today new highs people get nervous and probably because we went through you know the technology bubble the financial crisis and so forth so far we have not seen really um the the IPO Market has not been you know that robust so I think having some of that excitement some inflows into equities would be actually a positive it's when it starts to get a little bit whacky where we start seeing a lot of stocks come out IPO and then you start seeing these 50 100% jumps on a given day we're just not seeing that yet so as a first step seeing Reddit I think that would be a positive Keith learner truest co-chief investment officer Keith always a pleasure to get some of your insights thanks so much for the time here after the open |
A1RUVvX5XZE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1RUVvX5XZE | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed rate cuts: The last mile to tame inflation 'will be bumpy,' economist says | good morning everyone not tooo many surprises from the Federal Reserve at Wednesday's meeting in the conclusion there the fomc holding rates steady once again and maintaining its forecast to cut rates three times this year of course inflation has remained sticky to start 20124 causing fed officials to raise their core pce inflation outlook for the year to 2.6% from 2.4% here's what Fed chair J pal had to say about the path towards lowering inflation at Wednesday's presser we're strongly committed to Bringing inflation down to 2% over time that is that is our goal and we will achieve that goal markets believe we will achieve that goal and they should believe that because that that's what that's what will happen over over time but we stress overtime and so um I think we're we're making projections that that do show that happening and we're we're committed to that outcome and we will bring it about joining us now to discuss further we've got satian pande who is the SNP Global ratings chief us Economist and Bal Kad kja who is the Morgan Stanley investment management co-head of broad markets fixed income great to have you both here with us this morning saam I'll begin with you as we think about what we heard from the FED just yesterday and fed share J palal in that presser I mean how much of a significant move is this given that we were all tracking the The Dot Plot going into this meeting we got a little bit more context about the rate and the pacing of cuts too here yeah well there did reveal their in a preference to be patient with inflation so the Dot Plot by itself did not really show much of a move for this year but it did move the 2025 rate Cuts assessment that they have in their minds it seems like um at least 75 basis points for this year and another 75 basis points for next year which means they moved they actually paired back some of the rate cuts for 2025 about 50 basis points or so so they will be patient with inflation and you know to be honest they do have this optionality right now uh to wait it out and cease especially given the resilience in the economy Michelle when when you take into account the uh reaction that we saw within the market yesterday we had the equity Market rallying to record highs we saw some pressure on yields here on the heels of this announcement and the pressure that we got here from J palal this morning does that market reaction does that make sense oh very directly thanks again for having me on good morning uh I heard your uh you know initial comments as just prior to this segment very clearly I think they've lowered the bar on data what what do I mean by that they've acknowledged that the economy is running slightly harder than what their expectations were as well coming into December meaning growth is slightly going to be higher inflation is going to be higher and even then they've maintained their 75 basis points and not only that but they've also probably had slightly more confidence more dots in that uh three Cuts in 2024 and yes as as SAA mentioned slightly lower longer term neutral rates so what does that do it gets into steeper curves dollar slightly being weaker and risk assets um again getting a bid back where the hesitancy of bid was there uh earlier this week as central banks dominated the flow this week and V what does that do to the attractiveness of of fixed income right now very attractive from our uh point of view again we might be a little biased in our vantage point we are active fixed income managers here uh but our franchise flows and also the industry flows that we track very clearly we feel that or we believe that you know November and December was just a glimpse of how uh a significant hoarding of cash or money markets that has gone on uh since 2022 and when that starts moving out the curve as you know clients lock in uh some of those yields as the Federal Reserve gives them the confidence that we are down or our next move is going to be a down in interest rates rather than up in interest rates uh so that definitely builds really well for intermediate short and intermediate term fixed income instruments even though the curve is slightly inverted uh especially in the front end soim uh J pal said what the markets really wanted to hear also from The Economist perspective too just in terms of those expectations that the economy is going to hold up even better than the Central Bank initially thought what though does that last mile that last fight uh Last Mile fight to tame inflation what is that going to look like and why is it so difficult at this point well I think it is going to be bumpy uh and when you just look at the core Goods the core services and the core core once you take out the shelter from the core Services just the combination of those three is what is going to make the path of inflation moving forward we think that you know just like you know chair Powell said the shelter component is going to reassert itself in the aggregate number it's the core core once you take out the shelter that actually goes more closely with the labor market strength and that we have seen some wage numbers starting to become less of uh you know the strength that it showed last year so I think that should show up in the data moving again having said that it is going to be tricky the timing uh is such that we may I think the risk maybe that it may be delayed than earlier than what we think right now June July is what everybody thinks but it may be that it have to be pushed back a little bit how far well I wouldn't say how far but there is a risk that inflation may be a little bit more stickier than what many have been thinking right now I mean we've already seen you know January and February soort to surprise us there may be more surprises right uh but still fundamentally we think that it is on its downward path toward its 2% but it's just how fast is it going to get there to be comfortable for them to start cutting rates what would that pertain for the balance sheet runoff as well then well the balance sheet runoff it's in a different Channel right now uh What uh chairman pow basically said they are going to fairly soon come out with something I I think it may be May is when they will announce and maybe perhaps the balance sheet runoff will be slowed down beginning in June so that is a net net positive for financial conditions in general uh but again the idea here is is to let the balance sheet runoff last longer and maybe we will get to a point where the balance sheet itself of the FED is actually smaller than what would have otherwise been and avoid some hiccups down the way like you know back in 2019 we did have a hiccup in September which they really want to avoid that so velle just lastly while we we have you certain corporate sector bonds here you you are also liking those which which corporate sectors most notably should investors perhaps be considering for their portfolio you know financials in the investment G corporate land I think we've isue we've U issued about 500 billion of new issues in the first two and a half months here um of or two and a half months here of the of the Year financials and especially the money center Banks uh here in the US have pretty fantastic fundamentally strong balance sheets and valuations there are still uh attractive whether you look at it from a fundamental basis and adjusted for the rating rating that those banks are at also looking at it from a longer term perspective where value lies within the fixed income market so financials within especially the money center Banks or the GBS uh are a great spot to be in the investment gr corporate line all right saam and V thank you both so much for joining us here this morning to take a little bit of a deeper dive into what we heard from fed shair J pal yesterday |
jk0rV1kOuPA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jk0rV1kOuPA | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin rebounds above $67,000, gold jumps to all-time high | let's take a look at gold and what's also being dubbed digital gold on the Move now gold is trading at all-time highs breaking above $2200 Andro ounce level on doish comments from the Fed so reaching an all-time high also Bitcoin on the rebound this morning it's back above 67,000 in s for is over at the big board with a closer look at the pricing action that we've seen in s yeah shaa take a look at Bitcoin right now as you just mentioned up 6% this is over the last 24 hours because remember the Bitcoin trade 7 Days 247 so we are seeing the price action here moving higher but over a 7day chart you can see where you saw Bitcoin basically uh tumbling down to uh below around 62,000 per token uh in the last several sessions and you part of that had also to do with outflows from those spot Bitcoin ETFs great scale being uh one of them that saw most most of the outflows but nevertheless outflows from those for 3 days in a row from those spot ETFs ethereum also want to mention up around 3,500 uh per token moving on to gold gold uh touching new highs after those fed comments uh from yesterday where we're looking at Gold Futures at 2,000 just above 2,200 uh per ounce uh now adjusted for inflation gold had a high back in 1980 but nonetheless this is a big runup for gold as we're seeing because the market is anticipating fed Cuts later this year so yesterday's comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell basically indicating that there will be Cuts coming that is sending gold higher guys |
2DrcD8CSUM4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2DrcD8CSUM4 | 2024-03-21 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | US Attorney General delivers remarks on Department of Justice lawsuit against Apple | today its net income exceeds the individual gross domestic product of more than 100 countries that is in large part due to the success of the iPhone Apple's signature smartphone product for over a decade iPhone sales have made up a majority of Apple's annual revenue today Apple's share of the US performance smartphone market exceeds 70% and its share of the entire us smartphone market exceeds 6 5% Apple charges as much as nearly $1,600 for an iPhone but as our complaint alleges Apple has maintained Monopoly power in the smartphone market not simply by staying ahead of the competition on the merits but by violating Federal antitrust law consumers should not have to pay higher prices because companies break the law we allege that Apple has employed a strategy that relies on exclus illusionary anti-competitive conduct that hurts both consumers and Developers for consumers that has meant fewer choices higher prices and fees lower quality smartphones apps and accessories and less Innovation from Apple and its competitors for developers that has meant being forced to play by rules that insulate Apple from competition and as outlined in our complaint we allege that Apple has Consolidated its Monopoly power not by making its own products better but by making other products worse Apple carries out its exclusionary anti-competitive conduct in two principal ways first Apple imposes contractual restrictions and fees that limit the features and functionality that developer can offer iPhone users second Apple selectively restricts access to the points of connection between thirdparty apps and the iPhone's operating system degrading the functionality of non-apple apps and accessories as a result for most of the past 15 years Apple has collected a tax in the form of a 30% Commission on the price of any app downloaded from the App Store as well as on inapp purchases apple is able to command these fees from companies of all sizes Apple has also also suppress the emergence of programs like Cloud streaming apps including gaming apps as well as super apps that could reduce user dependence on Apple's own operating system and expensive hardware and as any iPhone user who has ever seen a green text message or received a tiny grainy video can attest Apple's anti-competitive conduct also includes making it more difficult for iPhone users to message with users of non Apple products it does this by diminishing the functionality of its own messaging app and by diminishing the functionality of thirdparty messaging apps by doing so Apple knowingly and deliberately degrades quality privacy and security for its users for example if an iPhone user messages a non- iPhone user in apple messages the text appears not only as a green bubble but incorporates limited functional ity the conversation is not encrypted videos are pixelated and grainy and users cannot edit messages or C typing indicators as a result iPhone users perceive rival smartphones as being lower quality because the experience of messaging friends and family who do not own iPhones is worse even though apple is the one responsible for breaking crossplatform messaging and it does so intentionally for example in 2013 a senior executive at Apple explained that supporting crossplatform messaging in apple messages quote would simply serve to remove an obstacle to iPhone families giving their kids Android phones close quote in 2022 Apple's CEO was asked whether Apple would fix iPhone to Android messaging the questioner added quote not to make it personal but I can't send my mom certain videos close quote Apple CEO CEO responded buy your mom and iPhone in addition to selectively controlling app distribution and creation we allege that apple is violating the law by conditionally restricting developers access to the interface which is needed to make an app functional on the Apple operating system for a product like a smartwatch or a digital wallet to be useful to an iPhone user it must be able to communicate with the iPhone's operating system but Apple creates barriers that make it extremely difficult and expensive for both users and developers to venture outside the Apple ecosystem when it comes to smart watches Apple not only drives users to purchase an Apple Watch which is only compatible with an iPhone it also uses its Technical and contractual controls to make it harder for someone with an iPhone to use a non-apple smartwatch and when it comes to digital wallets Apple's exclusionary conduct goes a step further digital wallets allow users to store and use passes and credentials in a single app including credit cards personal identification movie tickets and car keys Apple wallet is Apple's proprietary digital wallet on the iPhone Apple actively encourages Banks merchants and other parties to par participate in apple wallet but it simultaneously exerts its Monopoly power to block these same Partners from developing alternative payment products and services for iPhone users for example Apple has blocked thirdparty developers from creating competing digital Wallets on the iPhone they use what is known as tapto pay functionality that is the function that makes a digital wallet well a wallet instead Apple forces those who want to use the wallet function to share personal information with apple even if they would prefer to share that information solely with their Bank medical provider or other trusted third party when an iPhone user puts a credit or debit card and apple wallet Apple inserts itself into the process that would otherwise occur directly between the user and the card issuer this introduces an additional potential point of failure for the privacy and security of Apple users and that is just one way in which apple is willing to make the iPhone less secure and less private in order to maintain its Monopoly power the Supreme Court defines Monopoly power as quote the power to control prices or exclude competition as set out in our complaint Apple has that power in the smartphone market now having Monopoly power does not itself violate the antitrust laws but it does when a firm acquires or maintains Monopoly power not because it has a superior product or Superior business acument but by engaging in exclusionary conduct as set out in our complaint Apple has maintained its power not because of its superiority because of its unlawful exclusionary Behavior monopolies like apples threaten the free and fair markets upon which our economy is based they stifle Innovation they hurt producers and workers and they increase costs for consumers if left unchallenged Apple will only continue to strengthen its smartphone Monopoly but there's a law for that the justice department will vigorously enforce antitrust law enforcing the law protects consumers from high prices and fewer choices that is the Justice Department's legal obligation that is what the American people expect that is what they deserve I am grateful to the attorneys and staff of the Department's antitrust division for their tireless work on this case on behalf of the American people I'll now turn the podium over to the deputy attorney general thank you very much Mr attorney general and good morning every everyone in our fight against corporate misconduct the Department's approach is straightforward and Relentless we identify the most serious wrongdoers whether individuals or companies and then we focus our full energy and devote all necessary resources to holding them accountable accountability promotes fairness it drives deterrence and it advances the rule of law by holding all companies to the same standards our approach to corporate enforcement benefits all Americans Americans who deserve and who demand a justice system that holds accountable those who break the law for over a century our federal antitrust laws have been a critical tool for protecting competition the competition that fuels and drives our nation's economy these laws protect consumer choice in the market they keep prices in check they promote quality and they open doors to Innovation today the department alleges that apple one of the world's largest tech companies crossed the line from rigorous competition to anti-competitive exclusion unlawfully maintaining a monopoly in violation of the Sherman Act the complaint makes it's clear that for years Apple has tightened its grip on the smartphone market it has done so not through product improvements but by maintaining a Chokehold on competition locking its customers in to the iPhone while locking its competitors out of the market as a result and as the complaint details Apple has gone from revolutionizing the smartphone market to stalling its advancement this shift has smothered an entire industry from users to app developers to the next generation of innovators Apple's anti-competitive conduct must stop 16 other Attorneys General agree and have joined us in bringing this lawsuit against apple I want to thank the women and the men of the antitrust division for their commitment to promoting competition and protecting consumers and workers in all of their work and I want to thank Assistant Attorney General caner for his leadership their work makes clear that no matter how powerful no matter how prominent no matter how popular no company is above the law through today's action we reaffirm our unwavering commitment to this principle and with that I'll hand it off to the acting associate attorney general Ben iser thank you Deputy attorney general Monaco and I want to Echo the attorney generals and the deputy attorney general's thanks to the leadership and staff of the antitrust division for all their extraordinary work in promoting competition and advancing Economic Opportunity The Landmark Microsoft case held a monopolis liable under the antitrust laws for leveraging its Market position to undermine technologies that would have made it easier for users to choose different computer operating systems today's complaint alleges that Apple has engaged in many of the same tactics that Microsoft used the complaint describes how Apple's anti-competitive conduct discourages developers from offering new and Innovative applications and makes it more difficult for consumers to switch to other smartphones Apple's conduct leaves consumers with higher prices fewer new products and a worse user experience in this way today's complaint also reflects the broader importance of vigorous antitrust enforcement markets that lack competition shift power from consumers and workers to powerful corporations a lack of competition means fewer choices and higher prices for consumers it means fewer options and lower wages for workers and it means that the owners of powerful corporations make more without expanding the size of the P for anyone else promoting competition through antitrust enforcement levels that playing field and is critical to promoting Economic Opportunity and Equity the the department has been and remains committed to pursuing these goals wherever anti-competitive conduct arises in the airline industry we have successfully challenged mergers that would lead to higher ticket prices and fewer flight options for travelers earlier this month JetBlue and spirit announced that they were abandoning their proposed merger a major victory for Americans who rely on competition between Airlines to travel affordably we have also weighed in on important cases affecting how much American families pay for housing explaining why it is unlawful for landlords to collude to raise rental prices even when AI technology is used to do that and we have prioritized criminal antitrust enforcement cracking down on bid-rigging and procurement fraud schemes that victimize federal state and local governments and ultimately taxpayers these are just a few recent examples of the work that the antitrust Division and the department more broadly has done to ensure that the American people have equal opportunity in the marketplace today's suit against Apple reflects our continued commitment to promoting competition and advancing economic Justice I'll now turn it over to Assistant Attorney General Jonathan caner good morning thank you attorney general Garland Deputy attorney general Monaco acting associate attorney general meiser and a special Welcome to the newers New Jersey attorney general plen and I'd also like to acknowledge principal Deputy uh for the antitrust division Doha mecki a deputy assoc Deputy Assistant Attorney General hedel Doshi and Deputy assistant general Michael kadus the Department of Justice has an enduring Legacy of taking on the biggest and toughest monopolies in history this includes historic cases against Standard Oil AT&T and Microsoft today we add to that distinguished Legacy by announcing an antitrust lawsuit against Apple from monopolizing smartphones approximately 25 years ago the Department of Justice State Attorneys General announced the case against a different platform monopolist that successful litigation and remedy created opportunities for the next generation of Technologies including and especially Apple 25 years ago it would have been difficult to Imagine The Innovation that would follow from the proliferation of mobile devices and services that historic antitrust case however played a pivotal role in ushering the next generation of Technologies Apple itself was a significant benefici of that case and the remedy paved the way for Apple to launch iTunes iPod eventually the iPhone free from anti-competitive restrictions excessive fees and retaliation today we stand here once again to protect competition and Innovation for the next generation of technology smartphones have so revolutionized American Life that it could be hard to imagine a world beyond the one that Apple self-interested monopolist deems and I quote good enough close quote but under our system of antitrust laws good enough is quite simply not enough the law mandates that competition and not Apple self-interested business strategies alone deliver Innovation and choice this is particularly important in areas of the economy that impact our daily lives and it is hard to think of product that is more essential to our daily lives than smartphones competition does not just protect the markets and Technologies of today but the Innovations of Tomorrow we bring this case to make sure that Apple competes by innovating rather than imposing rules and fees that prevent others from innovating and competing too and in doing so we protect the market for the innovations that we can't yet perceive alongside our colleagues at the State Attorneys General we have conducted a methodical thorough and extensive investigation that has uncovered a pattern of anti-competitive conduct by Apple our lawsuit sets forth extensive facts and includes substantial excerpts from Apple's own internal documents our lawsuit explains Apple's long-standing pattern of harmful anti-competitive behavior and Apple has inflicted using that anti-competitive behavior anti-competitive harm that is acute and substantial for example Apple's conduct has resulted in less competition to lower the price of smartphones for American consumers consumers are paying more as a result for digital Goods services and subscriptions smartphone users are losing out on New Innovative and more secure features that could reduce the need for expensive Hardware unlock major technological advances and allow for more secure Communications developers artists content creators are paying Hefty fees as Apple gains more control control over the creation and distribution of content Banks and credit unions are now paying new credit card fees for every tap-to-pay transaction initiated from an iPhone in retail stores and businesses these fees will cost the economy the US economy billions of dollars Apple has long relied on contractual restrictions rather than competition on the merits to fortify its Monopoly power we know this because Apple's internal documents tell us as much in 2010 a senior Apple executive emailed the then CEO of Apple about an ad for new Kindle reader the ad began with a woman using her iPhone to buy and read books on a Kindle app she then switches to using an Android smartphone and continues to read her books using the same app the senior executive Apple at Apple expressed his concerns in candid terms a and I quote message that can't be missed is that it is easy to switch from iPhone to Android not fun to watch close quote Apple was clear its response to this competitive threat Apple would and I quote force close quote developers into using Apple's payment system as we allege in our lawsuit Apple repeatedly responded to competitive threats like this one by making it harder to leave than making it more attractive to stay the antitrust laws have something to say about that in closing I would like to thank the unbelievably hard workking dedicated talented and extremely awesome staff of the antitrust division many of whom are in the back they are exceptional public servants and I am so proud every day to call them colleagues I would also like to thank the Attorneys General and their incredible teams from Arizona California Connecticut District of Columbia Maine Michigan Minnesota New Hampshire New Jersey New York North Dakota Oklahoma Oregon Tennessee Vermont and Wisconsin finally I extend our deepest gratitude to the US attorney and his extraordinary team from the District of New Jersey who join us in filing this important and historic case it's great privileged Now to turn the podium over to the attorney general from the great state of New Jersey good morning I'm honored to stand here today alongside Attorney General Garland Deputy attorney general Monaco acting associate attorney general meiser and Assistant Attorney General caner and the rest of the Department of Justice on behalf of both the 9.3 million residents of the state of New Jersey and a bipartisan group of 16 Attorneys General because no matter which great state we represent we are all responsible for protecting the wellbeing of our residents and that includes their economic well-being as we've heard we're here today because Apple has consistently and deliberately engaged in anti-competitive business practices designed to maximize their profits and profits for their shareholders while minimizing the ability of consumers to switch to a competitor or to otherwise cut their costs I'd wager that just about everyone in this room and everyone watching this press conference has a smartphone and nearly seven of every 10 smartphones are iPhones that's not an accident rather than compete on an even playing field Apple has stifled innovation in order to gain total control of the iPhone software ecosystem as a result iPhone users become dependent on Apple and its products and find the process of switching phones exceedingly costly and complex the company has created a Marketplace in which developers consumers and others must play by play Only by rules established by Apple for Apple in 2016 the company announced that it had sold 1 billion iPhones a number that continues to climb when that Milestone was reached Apple CEO Tim Cook said iPhones had quote become more than a constant companion the iPhone is truly an essential part of our daily life end quote that dependence was no accident Apple made the iPhone a part of our daily life by limiting the features and functionality that developers could offer iPhone customers and by selecting ly controlling access between apps and the iPhone operating system as we note in the complaint Apple protects its business model by restricting technologies that would make it easier for iPhone customers to switch to another smartphone those restrictions go to the core of Apple's unlawful conduct and the end result is that you pay more money for an inferior product as New Jersey attorney general it is my responsibility to protect the rights of consumers in my state and ensure that businesses treat them fairly no matter how large or powerful they are and that's what my fellow Attorneys General do every day on behalf of their residents monopolies are the antithesis of our free market economy they drive up costs and limit options for consumers across our states and across this country and thanks to the actions like we are taking today alongside our partners in the Department of Justice we will stop them thank you Attorney question about antitrust obviously the Justice T is suing Google Federal Trade Commission is suing Amazon and Facebook what does it say to you th those are four of the greatest American business success stories of modern history what does it say to you that they're all accused of illegal anti-competitive behavior and if you can indulge me in an off topic question I do this and I trust one first and maybe I'll have more success with that one I don't know uh uh look uh justice department does not have a different rule for the powerful as compared to the powerless does not have a different rule for the rich as compared to the poor we have one rule we look at the facts we look at the law we make the appropriate determinations I will say that with respect to Resource allocation when you have an instit institution with lots of resources that in our view is harming the American economy and the American people it's important for us to allocate our our resources to protect the American people and that is certainly the case where individual Americans have no ability to protect themselves thanks and on the special Council Robert her's report you personally have come in for a lot of criticism in particular from the White House Anonymous officials uh who say that you should have acted to keep him from characterizing the president's memory the way he did in that report that you should have stepped in what's your response to that I haven't uh no one from the White House has said that to me um when the president announced my nomination he said uh to me directly and then to the American public that he intended to restore the independence and the Integrity of the justice department and that he wanted me to serve as the lawyer for the American people not the lawyer for the president I sincerely believe that that's what he intended then and I sincerely believe that that's what he intends now but did you think think that that was appropriate the language that he used to characterize the president's mental state look they I said from the very beginning that I would make public the report of the special of all the special councils appointed During the period of my service that is consistent with the regulation which requires a special councel to explain what the special council's decisions are it's in consistent with the precedent the full disclosure of all all special councel reports in the entire 25 years in which the regulation has been in effect it's consistent with the common practice during the previous period of the um uh independent Council statute um the idea uh that uh an attorney general would uh edit or redact or sensor the special council's explanation for why the special Council reached the decision special councel did that's absurd hi from um so today's complaint focuses specifically on the iPhone uh market and smartphone markets um there were reports at recent months saying that potentially the doj could also be considering looking at iPads or other parts of uh Apple's business so I was curious if you could explain to us why Focus specifically on Smartphones at this moment in time and whether the doj remains open to potentially broaden this challenge against Apple given also the argument that this alleged misconduct actually has Ripple Ripple effects across uh the economy well our general practice is not to discuss matters that we have not announced and so I don't or whether we're announcing them or not so I won't answer the latter part of your question look on the first part of the question I think our complaint explains why we're focused on the iPhone it's the exclusionary conduct by um apple to maintain it's Monopoly in that area and it's the consequences for Innovation prices uh and the effect on both consumers developers Banks and credit card companies I I think I'll let Mr caner um say anything else he wishes to add to that thank you attorney general we focus on the core Monopoly in this complaint Apple's core Monopoly is in the iPhone and we focus on the conduct that apple is engaged in to legally maintain its Monopoly in the iPhone and that relates to the entire iPhone Ione ecosystem and we've provided extensive detail about practices across a broad range of services and features throughout the iPhone ecosystem that have contributed to illegally maintaining Apple's Monopoly power da Michaels from The Wall Street Journal um the government's not the first plain if to accuse Apple of anti-competitive conduct so could you explain why you think the government is better positioned here to prosecute a successful case including um why this is a viable case in spite of the fact that Apple mostly beat um the case that epic games filed against apple and then um finally do you think your lwuit will ultimately lead to lower fees uh in the app store for developers and consumers uh look the United States normally wins the cases that it brings uh we bring cases because we believe the facts and law justify them and because we believe that we are likely to win those cases and I'll let Mr caner again explain any further that he'd like thank you attorney general our case as I mentioned before focuses on the Apple's core Monopoly which is the iPhone we have focused on a pattern of conduct that goes back over a decade that apple is engaged in in order to reinforce its Monopoly Power by excluding Rivals by excluding Technologies and stifling innovations that would threaten Apple strangle hold on its Monopoly power extensiveness and the um spe specificity in our complaint um speaks for itself and I think you will notice that um it is uh distinct from cases that have been brought elsewhere which focus on narrow products and services um thank you attorney general I have a question specifically about the App Store portion of this um there's already a member of Congress this morning in response to this lawsuit saying that if Apple can't vet the app that are sold on its platform it opens the door to apps made in China and Russia and and other adversaries if you will from getting onto people's phones how would you respond to that criticism so I'll just say in general and and once again I'm going to go to Mr caner for the specifics uh this lawsuit is not aimed at every kind of vetting or other activity that Apple does with respect to the App Store it is aimed at exclusionary conduct as we've set forth in the complaint there are many things uh of that exclusionary conduct that do not help security and in fact some that actually harm security so I'm going to uh leave it to uh Mr caner to describe this in more specifics thank you attorney general privacy and security are extremely important values competition makes devices and services more private and more secure our complaint explains very clearly while the legal exclusionary conduct that apple is engaged in is not necessary to protect privacy while the IL legal and exclusionary conduct that Apple has engaged in is not necessary to protect security and privacy um our in fact as the Attorney General mentioned our complaint explains that in many instances Apple's conduct has made its ecosystem less private and less secure that's [Applause] thank e |
L7nxOw7T0_o | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7nxOw7T0_o | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Micron Q2 earnings beats estimates: 'Demand for chips is set to increase,' analyst says | Mike on just out with its second quarter earnings moments ago reporting a big beat on its top and bottom line and interestingly its sales forecast topping estimates the stock up 133% right now in the news joining us now is Ralph bulk Analyst at New Street research he is based in Singapore and you've been going through the numbers here Ral um so what stands out to you that that forecast in particular a pretty big beat yeah it is a big beat thank you thank you for having me so yeah what we see here is 9% beat on revenue and that is driven by an increased demand for for D chips but importantly also price increases in both nand and dram now the guide 6.4 billion to 6.8 billion which is 10% beat and importantly CX cost of good salt is also guided up to increase 4% Q on Q now that signals that demand for chips is also is also um set to further increase in the coming quarter and and Rob my R you know it's sort of so many important end markets you know including PCS and smartphones what are you expecting in those verticals in 2020 24 so PCS and smartphones you know the recovery has been a bit lackluster so far so while I do expect those segments to recover um in particular in PCS I think the recovery will be second half weighted and in smartphones it continues to be a bit of a risk of a pullback in the higher end of the market but as it stands today those markets should recover in 2024 but for micron and the broader Tech space at the moment it is all about the data center and for the data center while high band with memory which is a massive Topic in memory um doesn't do much yet for micron today it is set to inflect the growths in the remainder of 2024 and into 2025 well and does this sales forecast I mean this is not like an Nvidia sized forecast like we got last year with this the big forecast but um with the demand for high bandwidth memory do you think that there is room for micron to even beat the forecast that it's giving today if you're calling that sort of an inflection right will we see a big upgrade even it's difficult to say at this point um it is heavily dependent on on price development but what we what we see today is that the industry and Micron are being very disciplined when it comes to adding capacity um in memory it is all about the equation between demand and and Supply Micron is being very disciplined there and importantly the same goes for highx and Samsung the other two major players in memory so as long as this Dynamic persists of the industry being very disciplined when it comes to adding supply and demand steadily recovering the setup is very strong for the remainder of 2024 and and Ral I'm also curious what do customer inventories kind of look like right now what are the trends we're seeing there they they have largely normalized fortunately for for micron um in data center uh that is the last segment in which inventories have uh have normalized it's now very close to normal levels in that segment as well so on that front everything looks looks okay um the industry still needs to work down the inventories that they have built up themselves so Micron HX and Samsung do still have exess inventory on the balance sheet and that needs to be worked down over the remainder of this year um what we'll see is that gross margin as a result of those inventories being worked down and prices recovering it should continue to Trend up as of these levels and the print that they just gave is a is a strong testimony to that and the same goes for the guides so 25 to 28% growth margin versus Market expectation of 20% is a is a good indication that we are on track on that inventory recovery and well finally to take a step back from today's numbers we just got the news today that intel was indeed the recipient of a grant um from the US Commerce Department to build out production of chips in the United States it's expected that micron's going to be the recipient of another Grant how important is that for the company and does that play into the investment case for the company also it is important to to some degree um we see we see an a large um pool if you will of of Manufacturers and that this is across memory across logic to to get those funds to build out Fab capacity in the US now for micron um they are of course one of the one of the few domestic suppliers of of memory in the US um it is important for them to get that subsidy to remain competitive with their larger pairs in in Korea ra thanks so much for joining the show today appreciate it pleasure thank you you |
9LEsmn6ZyWQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LEsmn6ZyWQ | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Micron skyrockets on better than expected Q2 earnings report | from mikron the memory chipmaker um the forecast is setting the shares Higher by some 10% right now third quarter adjusted Revenue the company Sees at $6.4 billion to $6.8 billion that's around this versus around the six that analysts were looking for here and I'm also seeing uh that the adjusted gross margin for the third quarter this is its fiscal third quarter that it's projecting uh gross margin estimated at 25 to 28% again far above the around 21% that analysts on average had been estimating here this is after it looks like second quarter numbers beat as well but it's really the third quarter numbers that appears that investors are keying in on yeah what's impressive about this too Julie is heading into this print stock was already a monster it was already up about 10% this year it was already about 60% over the past 12 months in part of course because we know we talked about this with with analysts who cover the name increasingly investors Pile in because they see this as a smart AI play as well yes um and you know memory I think even more than other parts of the semiconductor stack is sort of commoditized right it goes in cycles and so Micron has been a victim of that at times but now more recently has been sort of riding the uh AI enthusiasm it looks like I'm also seeing the company um has a quarterly dividend at 11 and a half% 11 a. half cents it did keep that same dividend that it has had um and I'm just looking at the statement here to see if anything stands out the company's talking about it's going to have a strong fiscal second half of the year and mentions AI that is Sanjay mahotra the CEO says we believe Micron is one of the biggest beneficiaries in the semiconductor industry of the multi-year opportunity enabled by Ai and investors agree apparently at least in the initial after hours year |
k8F50PAtTQg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8F50PAtTQg | 2024-03-23 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | 5G monetization: 'Customers don't want 5G, and they don't want to pay more,' analyst says | wireless companies been piling hundreds of billions of dollars into 5G infrastructure in the US over the last few years but haven't really been reaping the benefits so far but it seems that 2024 may be the year that things seem to change at least for a few Telecom Giants according to our next guest joining us now is Keith Snider cfra research senior Equity analyst Keith it is good to see you so it's interesting Keith your point is that listen these wireless companies we know they've dedicated a lot of time and effort and a whole lot of money to 5G Keith but they haven't really kind of monetized that yet at least in a kind of meaningful way maybe a star Keith I'm just interested why is that what what are the hurdles here that you would outline both on consumer and Enterprise sure I mean this is kind of the first generation that we've seen that um just providing connectivity Services isn't enough so you know looking back at 4G LTE 4G 3G just you know being able to connect people to each other that was good enough for wireless companies with 5G you have so many other Alternatives you have you know Wi-Fi 6 you have S internet coming out um you know with starlink and Amazon's planning a big Network um you know you have competition from all sides and so now it's become a Services game and really what we're seeing is you know these companies are going to need to one communicate to customers what they can offer um but to you know really redefine their business model you know as on the consumer side especially people didn't care about 5G I mean 5G is nice to have but when they tried to push price increases um you know adding you know 10 uh $15 per month for 5G Services people really pushed back and they walked back on that really quickly and so consumers just don't want 5G um and they don't want to pay more for 5G so you know it's going to be interesting to see how um you know these companies monetize the hundreds of billions that they're pouring into these networks every year when do you expect these companies to be able to eventually monetizes is that soon or is are we still ways out from that I mean we've seen it in somewhat of an indirect way with fixed wireless access and so that's basically providing broadband service via 5G Network um the issue is you know you have companies like 18t Verizon who have existing Wireline Broadband businesses so they have to be really careful about what markets they roll these Services out to so they don't cannibalize their own businesses um you know T-Mobile's been pushing really hard on the fwa front but at the end of the day given that um fixed wireless access customers share the same network as Wireless customers it becomes a congestion issue and so what we're seeing is companies you know kind of cap the number of customers they willing to sign up um especially you know on the 18 verzin side but you know looking to when they can actually fully monetize it it's probably going to be next year if not another year beyond that it's going to be the Enterprise customers who who are you know really clamoring for the the really cool technologies that we're seeing with uh with 5G you know Network slicing low latency Communications iot networks um these are all going to be big money makers it's just no one's really um fleshed out the software side of things and no one really has an idea of how to deploy this on a large scale and Keith I've been doing a lot of reporting on India and the opportunity there for media companies due to the expansion of 5G so when you're looking at the International roll out of 5G are there certain regions that you think could benefit more amid greater 5G adoption yeah I mean you you spoke to India that that's an area that you know when you look at like the noas and Ericson of the world that's a big aspect of their business right now is getting these networks rolled out in the you know the developing nations um established Nations you know the US Canada um you know China they already have been rolling out 5G more or less at the same Pace um but there's still a huge underserved Market especially in India um that we're seeing I mean that country alone they're still finishing 4G networks so 5G is while they're starting to roll it out it's still kind of on the horizon um especially you know as we look to a way to monetize it but yeah so these are you know big countries that have a huge opportunity for Revenue it's just you know I think the the us is going to be the test bed for a lot of these cool new technologies and it's just we haven't seen them come out yet in any meaningful way and Keith let's dig into some names here for viewers um looking at your list here you got a positive outlook you said for for T-Mobile for Verizon for for AT&T as well how how come Keith kind of walk us through why you're positive on those names so so I'm very positive on a on T-Mobile um we have a strong a strong buy opinion on them right now um they're leading the pack in terms of 5G they're leading the back in terms of the next generation of 5G which is the 5G Standalone standard and that's uh you know that's where the Enterprise money is going to start to flow in um AT&T we actually have a hold opinion on right now um they had a lot going on in terms of you know the Time Warner deal set them back a few years and um you know the debt load is not exactly looking great for that company and Verizon we actually have a sell on we think they're more or less dead last in 5G roll outs um they more or less bet the farm on millimeter wave which is really really fast but it's really hard to propagate that signal to Consumers especially in um Urban environments and so they had to step back they bought a lot of midband Spectrum which is really really valuable um during the cand auction and so we see them more or less you know 12 to 18 months behind T-Mobile in terms of their 5G roll out and so T-Mobile has a great first mover advantage um AT&T is you know kind of bringing up the next Second Place position and Verizon's kind of in a a third place position and you know dish is well behind or sorry echostar now is well behind the other three in terms of Network rollouts all right well we'll be keeping our eye on some of those names Keith Snider thank you so much for joining us |
-5HOfUlD7io | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5HOfUlD7io | 2024-03-23 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Clean energy investing: There's lots of capital on sidelines waiting for rates to drop, expert says | the world's biggest leaders and experts in the energy industry are in Houston this week discussing the industry's biggest goals and challenges it's all part of the 42nd annual Gathering of Sarah week the world's preeminent energy conference hosted by SNP Global now we've heard from quite a few industry leaders on our show this week our next guest is in Houston now for the conference we've got Kate height Bane and Company partner and energy policy expert um Kate you know this conference comes at a time where you sort of get the sense that yes companies are still investing in this clean energy transition but it's not as top of mind maybe as it was a few years ago partly because the shareholder pressure has eased back what's your takeaway so far in the conversations that you've been having I think right now we're in the middle of companies actually trying to sort out what it looks like to invest in this environment we the time of pledges has passed and we're now in the middle of the hard of implementation so I I think the direction of travel continues to be clear in terms of investment in new Energy Technologies it's just the pace that's a little bit uncertain and sort of that's what we see showing up in the survey that we recently did of about 600 Executives on the topic and Kate speaking of uh speaking up that research in terms of the return on investment we we're still seeing companies wanting to invest here but some caution here about how what how they viewing Roi what are you see seeing from some of these companies and where are they seeing the greatest Roi so I think we're seeing a time of you know increasing interest rates really impacting the ability to put Capital to work in this area right now so I think there's a lot of sort of capital on the sidelines waiting for those rates to come down so it can really take off so I do think it's a matter of time frame rather than a pause in the the theory of the investability of it all um right now what we're hearing from Executives is really the greatest obstacle to scaling up these businesses right now is as you said returns compared to what they're getting from conventional fuels but also customer willingness to pay here um really finding those customers who are willing to pay or policy that is you know enabling um sort of covering the spread that green premium to enable these Technologies to take off in a scaled way so I do think it's a matter of timing here um but right now we do see some caution given the interest rate environment uh Kate we did get um the SEC finalizing those climate disclosure rules a few weeks ago um scope 3 not necessarily included in that that is of course Downstream emissions that is by the way makes up the largest chunk of most companies and their emissions output um do you get this sense that companies are I guess the question is what is the conversation that you're having with companies around this how much they're going to have to invest do they have the infrastructure in place to be able to meet these disclosure rules and the fact that scope 3 was emitted is that on their end and when they don't necessarily have the Investments up front is that seen as a positive even if it's not a good a positive for climate so I think companies have been organizing against this for a while I mean many of the largest companies in the world have been reporting some of this information voluntarily in any case to this to CDP formerly known as the climate disclosure project so they are developing some expertise however there have been some who have not really gotten into the game so I think as we look at the SEC regulations regulations in Europe and in some parts of Asia right now again the direction of travel is clear there a lot of these companies are also International companies so even though scope 3 may not be a requirement in the US it certainly is in Europe and in some of these other geographies as well so what we see happening right now is companies really mobilizing for compliance so getting the software as a service providers in place making sure they have good tracking within their company to really get that granularity on emissions but where we're most interested in talking to companies is really the climate risk part of some of these disclosures so this is not just about physical risk sort of where your operations are happening or where you may consider investment in the future but it's also about what we call transition risk so what how is the regulatory environment going to shape up what are some of the big changes and some sort of durable um weather patterns that are going to influence the performance of your transmission infrastructure for example so I do think that the standardization of disclosure is going to be a very positive thing for invest s because prior to this we really didn't have kind of comparable metrics to think about how companies are performing on this and I really do appreciate the focus on carbon because that's really where we see um most investors being the most focused on wanting to see progress and so Kate um from this research it showed that Executives from every region ranked North America as a more attractive region for investment than Europe and that included Executives within Europe so despite some of the the policy and regulation issues why do you think they're so drawn to to North America especially given that we do have a presidential election this year which could changes some of the Dynamics I think there are a couple of reasons um so first the inflation reduction act and then the number of different um infrastructure policies in place in the US right now are really providing a pretty impressive stimulus on the supply side to get some of those new energies out there um so that's one reason second is we have an extremely low price of natural gas um right now in the US as an input so I think those things are a bit in Balance right now um as many of the companies who are here at s week are continuing to invest in deployment of conventional resources but also really looking at energy transition Technologies I think something in the US that's going to be really interesting to follow um over the next several years is really how we consider stimulating the demand side of all of this new Supply that's coming online and a lot of the interesting discussions we're having here around things like hydrogen right are okay there are a number of investors who are very interested and willing to invest in building building out that supply chain but where is the off take going to be I think that's going to be an interesting tension um to resolve in the US in the next few years and K one of the things of note is AI being seen as a Difference Maker how do you see that being deployed here so AI certainly is the the topic of the moment Ian it was at Davos as well um I think that right now energy executives are really thinking about how to use Ai and sort of its predecessor machine learning on improving Main and production and supply chain um not quite so sure yet um what some of those applications are going to be for emissions reductions but I think that as we see adoption of this new technology increase over time in terms of ability to exploit resources and think of new areas to generate wind power for example I think we're going to see more and more different sorts of adoption um and I think that's what's exciting about the technology so um I hear it being called a game Cher it may be right now we're definitely in a test and learn phase and there's certainly a lot of excitement around it indeed test and learn show and prove always the case with AI appreciate you taking the time to join us from the conference there Kate height Bane and Company partner and energy policy expert thank you so much thank you |
ohEaTNWvKa4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohEaTNWvKa4 | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Inflation: ‘It's too early to declare victory,’ portfolio manager says | as stocks Clos at records treasury yields pull back after the FED decision and fed share Jerome pow reiterated the Outlook of three rate Cuts this year joining us now is Adam abbis Harris Associates co-head of fixed income and portfolio manager Adams good to see you good to see you so maybe get listen you heard us talking Adam it is risk on right now we' got a record close for the Dow the S&P and the NASDAQ um so investors clearly like what they heard but what did you make of what kind of the FED did and said today well I think Jerome did a really good job today I think there was a tendency there was a risk really that he would come in and speak a lot about the last two inflation prints the hotness maybe even pivot hawkish from a really doish meeting in December and and the risk there is that we just have a fed that's flip-floppy you kind of lose credibility and what he said and I think said correctly was we had two data points some of that was seasonal uh we're going to wait for more uh data points to confirm a trend and he gave us evidence that the labor market can be strong as well and that there's no reason to change estimates you saw the Dot Plot still had three cuts and I think all of that was appropriate I think he did hedge with a little you know we are data dependent if uh inflation were to remain sticky we would make some changes if the labor market started to break down we saw a tick up to 3.9% we would make some changes but importantly he really didn't change his forecast and he re reiterated to the marketplace why and I think that was a great job by him so do you share the sort of Positive Vibes that we were hearing about from our Josh sh for a few I mean that was mostly soon on the on the equity side to be clear but the idea that the FED has done it that they've engineered this thing and that it's worked I think it's too early okay I think it's too early until we when until we're down to the FED Mandate of let's say two or above just above two I think it's too early to declare Victory but again I think this is the right decision I think he gave us evidence that he kind of leaked out I don't know if you guys noticed that he gave us the current PC print that was intentional uh to basically tell the marketplace hey those were anomalies more than they were at the beginning of a trend for inflation he gave gave us he talked about the labor market supply supplies coming back can protect from a big movement higher and and unemployment um so he gave us all the right data to imply that they're not going to really shift course and that they're ready to cut when you get inflation below let's say 2 and a half% and if you think about the skew here and the kind of the the framework if labor market goes bad we're going to cut if inflation comes back down from those two anomalies we're going to cut and we're not going to raise rates from here so we kind of are skewed um to a doish stance I'm looking at at the the the tenure right now I so 4.3 call where do you think the range is there you know near to intermediate term we were talking to another fixed income strategy ear the show he he actually thought you're kind of range bound here 38 to 43 what what do you think I think that's right I think the the 10e is is probably not too far off where it should be and at Harris we kind of Look Out 3 to 5 years we think fair value is kind of around three and a half to four and a half per. um where I think it's attractive right now is kind of in the belly of the curve the five and the seven-year part of the curve you can get real yields for let's say five years above 2% and again if you think the FED will meet its inflation objection you should see what's happening today which is a curve steepening and it'll benefit the 5year seven-year part of the curve and it'll um hurt the the longer end of the curve so we like to be in that seven five seven year part of the belly uh we think inflation they'll have success it will come down now timings you know the question mark here and if you notice he didn't say yeah we're going to cut but we're not going to cut necessarily over the next two months it may take six months we may be patient and that's the kind of that last variable here right um and I think that's important he's kind of given himself that flexibility give himself a little out if some new things are introduced to the to his framework that may cause him to be a little bit more hawkish does that also imply then just not a lot of Treasury Market volatility this year if you see this I think so I think what you know my expectation over the next 12 months is that is is as we get closer and closer to the actual cut cycle and we can really lock in on you know inflation is going to come down and stay down and that the labor market is okay like it's going to you know be somewhere between 3.8% four and a quarter but there is no big spike in unemployment then the treasury volatility will be lower and more range bound as we just have more visibility and more confidence the market has more confidence in the outcomes here so besides that's good for all markets besides the fives and sevens like what's exciting in the I mean that sort of implies that the that the fixed income Market is not as exciting right now which has pros and cons but are there places that you think are being overlooked right now well I don't know I don't necessarily think overlooked but I I think this might be a boring answer uh but if you can get 3% real yields in high quality investment grade corporate credit and we believe that inflation is going to come down to 2 and a half 2 and a half% and there's not structurally sticky inflation that's a lot higher than that then then real returns of 3% annualized in a asset class that defaults less than 1% annually that seems really interesting to me so maybe you can classify it as boring interesting to me guess that's exactly right so I think it's not the time to really be too adventurous and go reaching the Quality Parts of fixed income here I think the most attractive risk adjusted returns really are high quality fixed income US treasuries agency back securitize over the next three years Adam great to see you glad you could be here today appreciate it Adam abbis of Harris |
7vVo6I2jku8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7vVo6I2jku8 | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed risks: Markets are 'declaring victory too soon,' economist says | let's now welcome in Roger Aliaga Diaz Vanguard Global head of portfolio construction Roger it is good to see you so we have a rally here on Wall Street uh Roger I'm looking here just green across the screen all three major averages S&P 500 breaking above 5200 for the first time Roger but let's get your reaction what did you make of of what the FED did and said today yeah know I think the the market reaction is understandable at the surface the the SCP that we you guys were just describing is it seems very doish right so they revise up the growth projections they revise up the inflation projections they were at 24 before they're at 26 now yet they still think they will cut three times this year right so that that is a very doish signal to the market and I said the surface because below below the surface like how the different dots move shows a little bit more um less less easy Roger Julie here dare I say goldilock is it time to bring back that word well um it certainly golden do was last year um and the the question is if if those same supplies side forces that Powell referred to in the in the conference will continue right um because with with higher growth this time has comes higher inflation right so um whether whether we're GNA have that uh Tailwind that that really allowed the FED last year to have high growth with lower you know decreasing inflation is is still yet to come in our view um the inflation will remain a stubborn um we think that the FED has more revisions to do in terms of the of the rate Cuts we we feel that it's going to be very difficult for them to get to that first cut unless inflation picture really starts uh moving downwards to that point Roger you know I want to ask you this question you know when you see the stock market reaction like this this is a boost to financial conditions Roger right I mean doesn't this doesn't this complicate pows work ahead yeah absolutely absolutely I I think um Financial conditions wealth effects are are are things that that should be factored in um and that's um is a form of policy mistake in some in some sense in a slight way right um because by moving up the growth and inflation projections yet saying that they're going to cut the same they are sending an easy signal to the market which in turn as you suggest makes the job more difficult uh to to bring inflation down which is ultimately what they want so put it all together for us risk on for the for as far as the I can see Roger what you know what are the sort of risks to this continued rally and you know sort of exemplified by the reaction that we're seeing today yeah no to to me the the risk is basically we have seen it since since December honestly um that the markets are are buying this idea of a soft Landing declaring Victory too soon in our view um I think uh basically we'll have to get back to reality at some point if inflation continues being stubbornly high or not lowering enough eventually the FED will have to postpone and put off the the date of the first cut more and more and that's where we can see a little bit more volatility in the market so that's that's a risk I think as investor we need to keep in mind and Roger I'm mentioning another issue here you know we do have a very divisive election coming up here I'm just wondering to what extent if at all you think that's also impacting the fed's decisions yeah I mean the problem I think would be when with the timing of the first cut if it falls right there in in the September time frame it could complicate things right um not that the FED is not going to do what they need to do based on Mon monetary policy But ultimately the the the pressure and the criticism They will receive whether they do it or they don't do it um will will be will put them in the public scrutiny right so that that's going something that may limit a little bit what what they can do Roger thank you so much for your time appreciate it |
sNB9IfPXqYM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNB9IfPXqYM | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | 'There is a serious possibility the Fed won't be able to cut rates this year,' Dartmouth professor | the headline here the FED holding rate steady but kind of indicating three Cuts still coming at some point this year Andrew let's just start your reaction to the headlines of the news here um well I think that um The Dot Plot is is problematic because it only shows a baseline Outlook and that Baseline Outlook hasn't changed at all it's almost identical to the projections that the FED released 3 months ago um the problem is that there's alternative scenario in which inflation doesn't settle down close to their target the way they've been hoping um and um unfortunately the doot just doesn't convey information about the risk um personally I've been you on this program in December I said there was a serious possibility that the FED might not be able to cut rates this year I still see that it's a very significant risk um you look at what's happening to service prices um service price inflation's actually been picking up speed it's not slowing down not decelerating so um again what's what's what's unfortunate here is that the FED statement says they're attentive to the inflation risks but their Communications not really um fllying that very very effectively yeah Andrew on that point do you think that J pal will acknowledge that possibility in the press conference today that maybe there are no Cuts coming and can he without sort of causing chaos in the markets well I think um one thing that will probably come up today is kind of um pushing back a little bit on the timing of the cuts um the markets are currently expecting that the cuts are going to start in June um what seems more posible to me is that many fed officials are thinking of something more like summer early fall so they could still cut three times but that would be September U November December um that would give them some more space the wait through you know spring at least Into Summer to kind of really make sure that um inflation's settling down the way that they're hoping um and if it doesn't um then they can wait even longer to to pull the trigger to start cutting rates and George let's bring you in here as well and get your response this news is is it about what you expected George I think it is largely what I expected I think it's what the market wanted probably more importantly uh and the market seems to be taking this as good news to Andrew's point though I think the FED probably missed an opportunity to try and recalibrate policy slightly I think the market might have given them an out if they decided to maybe take a cut away this year they've kept three Cuts in place though and I think with good reason they suggest that maybe they don't have confidence yet to suggest that things are fully back to normal so we too think that inflation is still going to be somewhat problematic particularly on the services side we made a lot of progress so a year ago this time inflation was running close to 5% today it's in the high 3es which is still progress and markets probably anticipate that but at the same time we haven't returned to what normal policy rates should be and what they had wants them to be so I think the the FED missed an opportunity to try and slightly readjust policy you're right to point out Julie that the fact that the initial reaction is not the final reaction but thus far it seems like the markets are taking this as good news and rejoice in that but I think it's some point later this year we still have to come back to some realization that inflation is not yet cured and needs to be addressed and Andrew to come back to you you know are you a believer in the so-called idea that the last mile is the hardest here is it you know we're starting to see gasoline prices creep back up what's going on here why is it so hard well I think that an important Point here is we're not on the last mile just to underscore this um six months and a year ago chair Powell was emphasizing what he called super cor which was uh the service sector excluding housing and utilities um super core inflation was looking really good during the first half of last year was coming down really fast um getting close to what even looked like could be a two or 3% reading um which was very reassuring the problem now in the last few months is that measure has been going back up the latest three month series of uh super core is now at 6% and the the 12mth rate is at 4 and a half% so um the this isn't just gasoline prices the super core are the really inertial parts of the economy the most inertial stickiest prices and so if those are running well above the fed's target um then it could turn out to be very premature for the FED to start tightening this year that's again it's a risk case it's not necessarily the base case and Georgia is the markets guy in the panel let me bring you back in here I'm just curious George your take on does the FED have to cut for the market to move higher this year George or or no investors it's not all about the FED anymore they're more focused on the economy and corporate profits well Josh I think the market is largely focused on AI right now right I think that fed is kind of stepped away now uh to take away at near-term risk I thought frankly coming in today's report we might see some volatility perhaps even a selloff if in fact the FED adjusted policy as I suggested they might have the fact that they didn't do that however suggests maybe some some Market participants that it's all clear but I agree with you I think that we still have not really made sufficient progress frankly on the inflation side for the market to really feel completely comfortable I think the FED also would have to acknowledge at some point that there is this thing called The Wealth effect that's happening and that likely could lead to further spending we've seen maybe some softness in spending in the first two months of this year some of that I think is a give back from what we saw at the end of last year where spending was very robust but thus far spending this year has been a little bit tempered and we've seen consumers reach into their credit cards and other forms of payment to try and really bridge the gap between their depleted savings but I would suspect that because of the wealth effect maybe the spending boom that we saw last year might repeat itself in the second half this year and Ender point we might have to address inflation and some of the pressures from inflation in the second half of this year still so George does that suggest then that if investors are sort of ignoring the fed or not paying as much attention to the FED because they're looking at the AI shiny object that they do so at their Peril that there is a risk there well I think you have to be careful because I do think that AI is real and I think there is some long-term staying power behind the AI Trend but yeah I think at the same time when you see Market multiples approaching 22 23 times earnings that gets to be a little bit elevated and the risk of the fact that there isn't as much risk in the market anymore uh I think that also begs the question that we're probably due for a pullback at some point so I think in the short term yes I think that investors should be prepared for some volatility long term however though we still think that is real and I think it has a lot of legs on the long-term basis to really infect the economy in a positive way Andrew I want to get your take on on another issue you know you'll hear some economists and some well-known economists Andrew and they'll say you know when it comes to the fed's inflation Target they should be more open to this idea of uh moving the goalposts Andrew that you know they should learn to kind of live and love 3% what's your reaction to that well um the the F actually has a mandate from Congress it's now more than 50 years old old um maximum employment and price stability and when when Congress gave that mandate people thought price stability meant something close to zero inflation um in the 90s um chairman greenspin said well 1% might be okay um in the 2000s and over the last decade the FED said well 2% is actually a good number many other central banks Target 2% um that allows a little bit of a buffer um I think that if If the Fed were to change the target upward further it would be a more clear deviation from what the law say and I think they would have to have Congressional hearings to discuss um either the either Congress changes the Mandate um it gives them more latitude to Target whatever they want um or the FED has to get you know inflation back down on a sustained basis to what's at least reasonably consistent with price stability inter and so George as we all try to figure out what the FED is going to do here are you making any changes to your strategy here is you you know are there things that you're going to be listening to specifically from JP to sort of key off of when it comes to what you're doing with your portfolios I don't think in the near term we might be Lo to make any changes I still think we want to be balanced towards risk overall there are certainly elements of the market that are so attractively priced whereas some of the so-called ni and scks or maybe the faes 4 are a bit overpriced in our view we still think the market is reasonably valued to some extent and I think the fact we have to recognize is that the FED is still trying to find their confidence and trying to find where equilibrium should be with respect to the policy rate so there is a fair amount of uncertainty and for that reason we're not likely to take risk up but we're also likely to take risk down because there are still some signs of Hope and some signs of optimism in the economy still the fact of the matter is that they adjusted their growth Target up I think also needs to be mentioned irrespective of their outlook for inflation which as you acknowledge was a t hotter but they also adjusted their forecast and their outlook for growth which essentially is markting to Market what we already know but I think it is validation that there is still some economic strength underlying this economy which is still quite healthy Andrew you we're gonna hear from Jay pal very shortly here if you were at that pressure Andrew what's the one question you would have for Mr poell well again would help proba another by the way I was one of the people who worked with banki and J Ellen when we designed the do plot um a decade ago but there's always room for improvement and I think another limitation of the Dot Plot is it just shows kind of the end of the year without giving any sense of timing it would be constructive today if chair Powell would clarify the likelihood that the first Cut's probably not coming till late summer early fall that would help the markets I think at this point they I think part of the market risk that I see is that every of them seeing over the next you know few months the FED keeps pushing back the market expectations incrementally um to a later mean later mean later mean and um that that would probably create some downward pressure um given all the other strengths U that uh the George has mentioned yeah well we'll see if part of that happens today Andrew George thank you so much guys really great to catch up with you thank you |
nAMCY9_G6J8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nAMCY9_G6J8 | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Investors should 'avoid being too bullish on bonds,' Morgan Stanley strategist says | for more on what we heard from the Federal Reserve already today three rate Cuts forecast uh for 2024 what this means for investors let's get to Michael kushma Morgan stenley Investment Management CIO and Broad markets fixed income head good to see you Michael thanks so much for being here so sort of first blust reaction here um do you think that the FED is managing the uh Market's expectations appropriately I think they're they're doing a good job of steadying the ship that there's no change in their long-term views about inflation which has been underperforming or too high in recent months relative to what people thought is more a blip it's more an outlier with the 2025 forecast they will be at the where they thought they'd be know three three months ago so no change in their long-term view that disinflationary process is on track they do not have to adjust monetary policy in any significant way this year um in order to achieve those targets so it's Steady As She Goes there's no reason to think that we're not going achieve our objectives so in that sense steadies the market there's no surprises everything's okay in Sense on track Michael they did um just looking at the projections here for core inflation that that did uh tick up a bit here 2.6% I'm just interested when you look across 2024 the trajectory of inflation what what does it look like to you Michael well I think they were they they were realistic in terms of marking up a bit because the first quarter of this year has been quite disappointing I think you know core PC was up0 4% % January and and February and that is you know way too high to achieve that low two number at the end of the year so I think that they they've bought into the idea that this is more of a blip but when return to that disinflationary process we saw in the fourth quarter of last year we were ticking along at almost below Target a 1.6% annualized rate now we've accelerated higher if you look at sort of a meeting a moving average or trend of that it still looks down um I did think it was interesting that they took out a rate cut 2025 that the terminal rate for 25 for fed funds is a little bit higher than it was before I think acknowledging the fact that growth is stronger than expected they they've upgraded their growth forecasts across the board and raising the long-term equilibrium fed funds rate is reasonable given the growth of the economy seems to be has more potential than expected so how Michael how do they make the argument that that they should be cutting with the inflation projection still at 2.6% I I think it's the it's the trend in the trend in the economy if you look at sort of models that that people have typically used to to think about how the FED sets interest rates there are things called know tailor rules we look at the relationship of unemployment to Full Employment the relationship of inflation to Target inflation those models all suggest that the FED should be cutting interest rates a bit this year is it three Cuts is it two cuts the rates are probably high enough or even too high to achieve that objective over time in other words if they didn't cut three times inflation may be too low down the road in other words they have to keep adjusting infl the FED funds rate down as inflation continues to drift lower otherwise policy passively tightens over time so I think that's kind of what what what they're saying policy is more than sufficiently tight right now models which suggest it can ease at the margins but no big time easing anytime soon it's more of a Glide path than any aggressive abruptness in terms of Cut Rate Cuts Michael I'm looking at the yield on the on the 10e it's at 42 n Michael uh Curious where you see that headed in in the sort of the near to intermediate term here it's it's pretty tough for it to move much anywh direction from current levels If the Fed continues to cut rates well cart begins to cut rates as expected um fed funds rat gets down to you know four and something but the 10year is 429 shouldn't the yield curve be positively slowed with long-term yields higher than long-term short-term yields and right now it's it's difficult to see that given the trajectory of monetary policy or fed funds rate that we're looking at so I think you know the 10year yield is stuck somewhere between the very high threes 3.8 4.3 where we are it may not go a whole lot higher um if if inflation continues to get better but as we heard from earlier inflation has to get better q1 inflation negative surprises have to go away we have to resume that 0.2% per monthly numbers for cour PC you know pretty quickly otherwise the yearend number will be in Jeopardy Michael um you mentioned um the yield curve inversion but you know at least between the tens and twos that we continue to see is that just broken as a predictor of recession should we just not pay attention to it anymore I mean it's been inverted for a while now for for a very long time it's one of the longest periods of inversion we've seen I think it reflects a couple of factors one is the temporariness of most of the inflation shock it it is going away it's taking time and people are confident that inflation will will drop to lower levels it also reflects that the attractiveness of bonds at current levels um is pretty good real the real interest rates as indicated by the tips Market is almost 2% and a 2% real rate of turn on US Treasury security is very attractive by historical standards so that that absolute level of long-term yelds looks pretty attractive to longer term investors who are looking through the LA last couple of months or the next couple of months and see yeah I could get more yield in two years but why not lock in these higher yields I don't know how don't know how long they'll last at current levels plus we do know the FED has done a lot of QE over the last couple of years and that in theory should be suppressing risk premium term premium and suppressing long-term yields relative to short-term yields that should put some upward pressure medium-term as QT you know continues to unfold Michael I'm interested for fixed income Vis investors who are listening right now what are the areas you would you would guide them to avoid right here well I think to avoid being too bullish on bonds expecting some big drop in interest rates the economy is doing just fine Things Are are ticking along don't expect any any any major economic downturn such that we'll have a a major Bond Rally from 4.3% all the way down to 3% um at any point in the future and that while risk assets particularly stuff that we look at in terms of the credit markets investment grade credit high yield credit seem pretty well supported moving into a Fed rate cutting cycle when the economy is doing just fine so the fed's cutting rates not because growth needs it's just reflecting the fact that inflation is headed towards the target where it needs to be and that should be very supportive of of risk Assets in the economy so don't get too bearish on on risk assets don't get too bullish on interest rates at the same time Michael you know we've talked to some investors who have also said you know the money market flood that we've seen the money into money markets um because of the yields there should start to reverse the people should start looking to the more risky areas of the market but as the FED pushes it off and pushes it off and pushes it off in terms of rate cut are we going to see those flows actually be more more persistent perhaps uh it's it's it's certainly possible I think that a lot of retail investors myself included um look at what do I get for extending maturity know out of money market instruments or very short datea instruments out the yield curve and if you don't get paid a reasonable extra premium why should I bother unless I'm I'm trying to lock in a long-term attractive absolute yield saying I don't know when this is all when the fed's goingon to cut rates I don't know when yields are going to come down but if I lock in these yields today longer term it looks pretty good so Pension funds insurance insurance companies liability managers would look at the level of Treasury yields and investment grade yields in sort of 10 year longer sector look five and a half percent corporate bond yields look pretty attractive from a longer term perspective so I think there would continue to be a trickle of money out but I think that it will not see a big reversal until we get some a reversal of the inversion of the yeld curve Michael is always great to have you on the show today thanks so much for joining us welcome |
NeESZuFXRIw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeESZuFXRIw | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed rate decision and other top takeaways from the March FOMC meeting | well we've just heard from JP confirming that the Federal Reserve is holding rates for an eighth straight month our own Jennifer shamberger was in the room of course she got in a question there and brought up the rear here and she's joining us live from Washington so what was your impression there from being in the room from sort of seeing j pal in person um and as you've had a few minutes at least to digest what you heard just a couple minutes there Julia yeah I thought it was very interesting that cherel and the FED don't really seem to be phased all that much by the hotter inflation data that we saw in the first two months of this year uh he says it really doesn't change the overall inflation picture for the FED all that much now does it Inspire greater confidence no not exactly take a listen to what he said we have it at currently well below 30 basis points core pce which is not terribly high so it's not like the January number but I take the two of them together and I I think they haven't really changed the overall story which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2% I don't think that story has changed um I also don't think that those those readings added to anyone's confidence that we're moving closer to to that point and now pal would not show his hand on the timing for the potential first Ray cut and whether June may be even pushed back uh when asked about that he just said decisions are going to be made on a meeting by- meeting basis though I thought it was interesting because the chairman used language that he's been using all year to categorize timing saying that it would be appropriate quote at some point this year to begin dialing back policy restraint he didn't shift to using language like later this year that some of his colleagues have chosen to use so that indicates to me that June's still very much in play if the inflation data softens some more from here uh and continue following as they have when it comes to core pce on a month over Monon basis now on the balance sheet uh the chairman said that the members of the committee did have a discussion on this but they did not make any decisions today they believe though that it will become opportune to slow the pace of quantitative tightening quote fairly soon uh that doesn't mean he says though that the FED will end up with a larger balance sheet in fact they could still end up with a smaller balance sheet guys Jen you were you you know you've been in a lot of these pressors you've covered them so closely anything from the meeting today J pal said that surprised you Jen anything that surprised I mean I thought it was interesting that he just would not touch timing and that even though they have upgraded their assessment of the economy and inflation that they are still retaining three rate Cuts this year having said that you know we did see some of the doves that were seeing for uh rate Cuts previously back in December now coalescing more towards that median of three Cuts but for the most part the fact that they still see easing that much I think is is quite interesting and telling given that he also said they they don't feel the holistic picture for inflation has changed all that much even though we've had those hotter inflation data for the first two months of this year Jen shamberger thanks appreciate it |
VMIpLK88yS8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMIpLK88yS8 | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why Chipotle's 50-for-1 stock split looks 'attractive' to retail investors | everyone we're also continuing to watch shares of CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle could get a whole lot cheaper the board of the fast casual restaurant chain approving a 50 for one stock split in order to make shares more accessible to staff and investors and we're seeing the stock top $33,000 a share in reaction to this news if you split the stock at current levels it would trade at around 60 bucks a share so here with more we've got Nick saan who is the wedbush Securities managing director ctor Nick great to see you as always want to get your perspective here and we know that there are a ranging amount of reasons perhaps for this decision in the board moving forward with this and then it's going to come to shareholders voting to approve but what does this do for the average investor the retail investor out there does it change the propensity to buy into Chipotle and we've seen this with uh with other splits uh you know it definitely does excuse me um so the the demand for chipot shares is definitely going to go up later this year post this uh split and and mainly driven by retail investors they tend to uh you know view lower price stocks as as more attractive and uh you know a lot of times it actually meets their threshold so if someone's buying let's say $500 a month or $1,000 a month well you can't buy a Chipotle if you can't get fractional shares so it just makes it more available and the demand goes up yeah n there's absolutely no change here just in terms of the fundamentals of the business but just question for you just in terms of that interest there going off of that obviously making it more affordable but the inclusion here in index is potentially the broader exposure how do you view that as an analyst in terms of what it could potentially boost uh how big of a boost it could be for the stock in the longer term I don't know if it's going to change the inclusion in in in in indexes I know that uh you know a lot of algorithms Etc they get annoyed when the happens just because there's a little bit more volatility that they have to you know put into their models uh you know if you're uh trying to Arbitrage the stocks versus the indexes Etc but essentially at the end of the day um it's not going to impact inclusion in in indexes Etc so really I mean net net it just overall increases demand and trading in the stock and so Nick as you continue to think about what Chipotle can do to you know aside from the stock price and and what we're going to see that eventually move towards what they can do to continue to just keep part of this consumer wallet right now where consumers are trying to figure out okay do I spend a little bit more into that that guac in that chipotle experience or or do I say you know what just hold the chips I'll see you next week and perhaps pick up a a you know a burrito or a bowl or something like that what are the real mechanisms the levers that chipotle can pull right now you know it's been very surprising in terms of how well Chola has done when some some others have seen slow down uh in terms of just that in the attach rates uh you know overall spend the the the lower income customer uh slowing down a bit well you know last quarter they said we saw growth across all income you know segments and we really haven't seen a Slowdown at Chipotle uh they've been very very successful in terms of their their their menu Innovation the car asada which you know ended earlier this month was was very very successful so that drove a lot of the same store sales growth chicken uh the Dolla store uh you know came out March 12th uh that has actually uh continued to drive some momentum now the tougher compar uh get in the way in the second half so really know Q3 Q4 is is is I think when Chipotle gets really judged uh in terms of their ability to to anniversary some of these tougher comps especially with that much pricing in the system uh and then the other part of this conversation is California they have you know about 15% of their stores in California the wage rates there are going up to $20 an hour uh from you know right around 1650 uh that's a big you know inflationary headwind and they're having to take High single jit pricing in California to offset it so it'll be interesting to see how consumers react in California to some of these changes uh which you know obviously the timing coincides with the end of of carada and the launch of Al pasor so there's there's a couple of things we're watching there Nick what's your estimate on that just in terms of the impact that that could potentially have to Chipotle's bottom line in terms of the California W wage increases you know as of right now we don't think it's going to have much of an impact because they're going to actually be able to offset um all of it with the high high high single digit price increase now they're in a kind of unique position in that they have enough demand to be able to take that kind of pricing uh and even if you see some of the transactions transactions shift uh you know the price increases is is obviously going to boost the comp that should flow through to the bottom line so as of right now we're under the assumption that they're going to be able to offset a lot of that hit uh others aren't so lucky uh in terms of the pier set even post 51 split does Chipotle still look more attractive than a McDonald's out there we know that you were bullish on that name to start off the year yeah I still like McDonald's I mean in in a in an environment where it suer is is hyperfocused on check management I think McDonald is going to is going to win I I've been surprised you know at the continued momentum at Chipotle given the average check and the amount of pricing they've taken over the past you know three years or so over 30% uh and you know without much push back from the consumer so uh I'm I'm really nervous around the second half in terms of some of these tough Compares without car asada we'll see if Al pasor is you know a lot more popular than than car asada I can't just be as popular right it has to be even more popular to drive that incremental transaction so if transaction growth slows uh you know just given the comparison with with carada and some of these you know price increases in California um you I'm a little nervous that uh Chipotle's valuation may not necessarily hold up all right well chipole at least for today up just about 8% Nick real quick before we let you go if their valuation doesn't hold up what does that downside then potentially look like as right now my my price Target is is 2400 and I have an ual rating changing that anytime soon I can't comment I can't comment I I can get I can get fine if I say all right Dan we're gonna have to have you back we appreciate you taking the time to join us here this morning Nick Z web Bush of web Bush security thanks Nick thanks for having |
ha3OBLBPOoo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ha3OBLBPOoo | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed’s dot plot 'not a useful tool for communication,' economist says | Claudia it is good to see you so zero confidence in the Dot Plot Claudia walk us through that how come it's not a useful tool for communication there was so much attention today is the median going to be three Cuts or two cuts and markets could have moved if it switched I mean two people would have had to change their forecast and I think what we forget is the Dot Plot the median in particular it is not the consensus forecast for the fomc you have 19 people running off doing their own projections and then doing their appropriate policy it's a neat little exercise it's fine for in the building it should not be out in public and thank goodness JP definitely kept it together this is a boring Dot Plot and this is a boring statement Yay good we need more data before we get excited um and it's funny Claudia about the dotplots because we talked to Andrew Len a little bit earlier who said you know he was one of the guys who helped them construct it in the first place and even he is saying H maybe we need to rethink this situation so do you think that the FED does need some type of publicly facing forecasting tool like this or do you think no they should just get rid of it and you know bring it back into the meeting rooms and that's it they need J palal at the press conference that's it right he can give the message across and get like that he speaks for the FC those dots do not speak for the fomc those dots are like playing Fed chair for the day and in fact it's even worse it's like playing FC for the day right this is not the way we should communicate they are high technical I know why Andy put it together I know why Ben and Janet did they're great for macroeconomists I could spend hours on it thinking about what they mean this is not what Market should be doing at 2 o'clock on a Wednesday that the FED has you know put out their statement so JP Pal's absolutely capable of doing this and I'm so happy we're not going to sit through a press conference of him fighting with these dots Claudia their projections for for inflation did tick up a bit here I'm interested how do you see inflation playing out in 2020 four I agree with their trajectory inflation is coming down we're likely going to learn at the end of this month that PC core inflation was 2.8% or something right around there it has been steadily coming down yes the last two months on inflation have been disappointing so have the last two months on retail sales right we are seeing signs of demand flagging the FED has a dual mandate this fed is fully aware of that and so we've really gotten a mixed bag of disappointing news off out of the gate I think they're right it's going to be a little slow it's been a slog getting inflation down and yet we all agree this is where it's going and the data even the last couple months if you look under the hood this is where it's going we're getting back to two so when is that happening glao right I mean I know you know we talk about like how uneven this all is we talk about long and variable lags in terms of the effects of the interest rate or increases through the system but you know I think also you know your confidence notwithstanding I think a lot of people especially cons consumers right are having trouble getting their arms around and understanding why it is not coming down further and faster and the root of all evil in this cycle has been Co I mean we live through an extremely disruptive uh experience both in our lives and livelihoods frankly I want to put it in the rear view here too people making decisions about Economic Policy like the FED cannot like they have to understand the disruptions they have to watch them work out it's it's been really hard to see it but last year it was very clear inflation came down a lot not enough but a lot and we kept the labor market going unemployment was low growth was high so that's a really clear sign and I do not expect the regular person to get this but that is such a clear sign that was Co that was Putin we're unwinding it it is very slow but we're a really big economy I mean to work things out this is not trivial but we're we are so headed in the right direction and last year was the turning Point their economic Outlook Claudia looks like that also improved a bit too uh looks like projected change real GDP for 2024 Claudia 2.1% looks like that's up from about 1.4% in December does that kind of track with what you're seeing yeah I mean the fed's just catching up with |
qM30X1cNVzI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qM30X1cNVzI | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed Chair Powell delivers remarks after the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady | you two minutes light for this for for good afternoon my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people the economy has made considerable progress toward our dual mandate objectives inflation has eased substantially while the labor market has remained strong and that is very good news but inflation is still too high ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured and the path forward is uncertain we are fully committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal restoring price stability is essential to achieve a sustainably strong labor market that benefits all today the fomc decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings our restrictive stance of monetary policy policy has been putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation as labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid Pace GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year came in at 3.2% for 2023 as a whole GDP expanded 3.1% bolstered by strong consumer demand as well as improving Supply conditions activity in the housing sector was subdued over the past year largely reflecting High mortgage rates High interest rates also appear to have weighed on business fixed investment in our summary of economic projections committee participants generally expect GDP growth to slow from last year's Pace with a median projection of 2.1% this year and 2% over the next two years participants generally revised up their growth projections since December reflecting the strength of incoming data including data on labor Supply the labor market remains relatively tight but supply and demand conditions continue to come into better balance over the past 3 months payroll job gains averaged 20 65,000 jobs per month the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low at 3.9% strong job creation has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers reflecting increases in participation among individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a continued strong pace of immigration nominal wage growth has been easing and job vacancies have declined although the jobs to workers Gap has narrowed labor demands still exceeds the supply of available workers fomc participants expect the rebalancing in the labor market to continue easing upward pressure on inflation the median unemployment rate projection in the SCP is 4.0% at the end of this year and 4.1% at the end of next year inflation has eased notably over the past year but remains above our longer run goal of 2% estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total pce Prices rose 2.5% over the 12 months ending in February and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories core pce prices Rose 2.8% longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households businesses and forecasters as well as from measures from financial markets the median projection in the CP for total pce inflation Falls to 2.4% this year 2.2% next year and 2% in 2026 the fed's monetary policy actions are Guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food housing and transportation we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective the committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 and a quarter to 5 a half% and to continue the process of significantly reducing our Securities Holdings as labor market tightness has eased and progress on inflation has continued the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals are coming into better balance we believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that if the economy evolves broadly as expected it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year the economic Outlook is uncertain however and we remain highly attentive to inflation risks we are prepared to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for longer if appropriate we know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2% at the same time reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate the committee will carefully assess incoming data the evolving Outlook and the balance of risks the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% of course we're committed to both sides of our dual mandate and an an unexpected weakening in the labor market could also warrant a policy response we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting in our SCP fomc participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward if the economy evolves as projected the median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.6% at the end of this year 3.9% at the end of 2025 and 3.1% at the end of 2026 still above the medium medium longer term funds rate these projections are not a committee decision or plan if the economy does not evolve as projected the path for policy will adjust as appropriate to Foster our maximum employment and price stability goals turning to our balance sheet our Securities Holdings have declined by nearly $1.5 trillion since the committee began reducing our portfolio at this meeting we discussed issues related to slowing the pace of decline in our Securities Holdings while we did not make any decisions today on this The General of the committee is that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of runoff fairly soon consistent with the plans we previously issued the decision to slow the pace of runoff does not mean that our balance sheet will ultimately shrink by less than it would otherwise but rather allows us to approach that ultimate level more gradually in particular slowing the pace of runoff will help ensure a smooth transition reducing the possibility that money markets experience stress and thereby facilitating the ongoing decline in our Securities Holdings consistent with reaching the appropriate level of ample reserves we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keeping our longer term inflation expectations well anchored restoring price stability is essential to set the stage for achieving maximum employment and price stability over the long term to conclude we understand that our actions affect communities families and businesses across the country everything we do is in Serv service to our public Mission we at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals thank you Steve lean CNBC Mr chairman um the uh projections show somewhat higher core inflation they also show uh somewhat stronger growth um what should we infer from this notion that on a average rates were kept the same this year but inflation is higher and growth is higher does it mean uh more tolerance for higher inflation and less of a willingness to slow the economy to achieve that Target well it it doesn't no it doesn't mean that what it means is that you know we uh we've seen incoming as you as U as I pointed out in my opening remarks we did Mark up our growth uh forecast and so have many other forecasters so the econom is performing performing well um and the inflation data came in a little bit higher as a separate matter and I think that caused people to write up uh their their inflation um but nonetheless we continue to make good progress on bringing inflation down and uh so when you uh just to follow up when you say that you're willing to either maintain the rate for longer is what is the tolerance of the Federal Reserve for inflation coming in above its 2% Target so we're we're strongly committed to Bringing inflation down to 2% over time that is that is our goal and we will achieve that goal markets believe we will achieve that goal and they should believe that because that that's what that's what will happen over overtime but we stress overtime and so um I think we're we're making projections that that do show that happening and we're we're committed to that outcome and we will bring it about great hi chair pal Rachel seagull from The Washington Post thanks for taking our questions you and others have been saying that relief on housing inflation is coming but it still hasn't shown up meaningfully in the CPI or the pce does that challenge your assumption about when the shift will finally break through since it hasn't at that point so I think there's some confidence that that uh that the market rents lower Market rent increases that we're seeing will show up in measures of housing uh Services inflation over time there's a little bit of uncertainty about when that will happen but there's real confidence that they will show up eventually uh over time but again uncertainty about the exact timing of that and will you be able to get overall inflation down to Target if housing doesn't break through quickly and does that affect the timing for eventual Cuts this year we will get aggregate inflation down to 2% over time we will and and I would assume that what we'll continue to see is we'll see Goods prices coming into a new equilibrium where they're going down perhaps not as quickly as they had been earlier this year where Housing Services inflation will come back down as as as current market rents are suggesting will happen and where non- Housing Services will move back down some combination of those three things and it may be different from the combination we had before the pandemic will be achieved and will bring inflation back down to 2% sustainably Nick timos of the Wall Street Journal chair Powell during your Congressional testimony this month you said that your test for making the first change to interest rates does not require you to be terribly comfortable that inflation is at 2% because interest rates are well above neutral at the same time you said here after the last meeting that The First Cut is highly consequential can you reconcile these views for me if rates are well above neutral why would the first cut be highly consequential is that because you anticipate one cut would be followed by one or two more along the lines of the recalibration you made in 2019 which it's self was modeled on the midcycle adjustment of 1995 it's more I I would put it more in the context of what I said in our in my opening remarks that the the risks are really two-sided here we're we're in a situation where you know if we ease uh if we ease too much or too soon we could see inflation come back and if we ease too late we could do unnecessary harm to employment and uh you know people's working lives and so you know we do see the risks as to two-sided so it is consequential we want we we want to be careful and fortunately with the economy growing with the labor market strong and with inflation coming down we can approach that question carefully and let the data speak on that uh that that's really what I was thinking how much of that inflation that we've seen so far this year do you chalk up to oneoff calendar adjustment effects following a period of high inflation versus some change in the trend we saw uh in the second half of last year so I I want to start by being saying I always try to be careful about dismissing data that we don't like so you need to check yourself on that and I'll do that but so the but I would say the January number which was very high the January CPI and pce numbers were quite High there's reason to think that that there could be seasonal effects there um but nonetheless we don't want to be completely dismissive of it the February number was high higher than expectations but we have it at currently well below 30 basis points core pce which is not terribly high so it's not like the Jan AR number but I take the two of them together and I I think they haven't really changed the overall story which is that of inflation moving down gradually on a sometimes bumpy road toward 2% I don't think that story has changed um I also don't think that those those readings added to anyone's confidence that we're moving closer to to that point but uh you know we didn't last thing I'll say is we didn't um uh excessively celebrate the the good inflation readings we got in the last seven months of last year we didn't um take too much signal out of that what you heard us saying was that we needed to see more that we could you know we wanted to be careful about that decision and we're not going to overreact as well to these these two months of data nor are we going to ignore them um hi yes chair Powell uh I um could you speak a little bit more about the timing uh is there um enough data uh between now and say May to be able to get the kind of confidence that you say that you know you still need um or by June um is there enough data for you just give us a sense of your thinking there thank you yeah so we're we make decisions meeting by meeting and we didn't make any decisions or about about future meetings today uh those are going to depend on our ongoing assessment of of the incoming data the involving Outlook and the balance of risk so I've I really don't have anything for you on any specific meeting looking forward but I mean just a question I mean is there even enough data for you to be able to we'll we'll take um you know things can happen during an inter meeting period if you look back unexpected things so I don't want to I wouldn't want to dismiss anything so I just would say that the committee wants to see um more data that gives us higher confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward 2% I also mentioned uh and we don't see this in in the data right now but if there were a significant weakening in the data particularly in the labor market that could also be a reason for us to to begin the process of reducing rates again I don't there's nothing in the data pointing at that but those are the things that we'll be looking at at coming meetings and without without trying to refer to any specific meeting Chris hi uh Chris rber associate Press thank you um in the projections there is an increase in the neutral rate as you know and uh higher rates a quarter point higher rates projected in 2025 20 26 um can you speak about what might be behind that is there a real sense here that the economy has perhaps changed in some way that uh higher rates will be needed in the future thank you so you're right they're pretty modest changes but you're right there was an uptick in in the longer run rate and um uh and also there's a 25 basis point increase in in 25 and 26 in terms of um are rates going to be higher in the in the longer run if that's really your question I I don't think we know that um I I think uh it's it's we think that rates were generally low during the pre-pandemic post Global financial crisis era for for reasons that are mostly you know uh important slow moving large things like demographics and productivity and and and that sort of thing things that don't move quickly um but I don't think we know I mean I my instinct would be that rates will not go back down to the very low levels that we saw where all around the world there were long run rates that were at or below zero uh in some cases I I don't see rates going back down to that level but I think there's tremendous uncertainty around that great and just a quick follow on the projections you also have uh 2.6% core inflation for the end of this year it's already at or you mentioned it being 2.8 in February I that doesn't sound like much disinflation at all so are you really are you still confident or the last press conference you sounded pretty optimistic you would get more confidence to the end of this year um is it right to say that this suggests you're not seeing a lot of disinflation this year compared to what we've seen 2023 and so forth I think that that that higher year end um number reflects the data we've seen so far this year because you're now you're now in this year so um I think that um sorry say your say your last part of your question again well just are you still optimistic that you'll get the confidence you need this year I you know I I think if you look at if you look at the SCP what it says is that um it is still likely in in in in most people's uh view that we we will achieve that confidence and that there will be rate Cuts but that's really going to depend on on the incoming data it is um the other thing is in the second half of the the year you have some pretty low readings so it might be harder to make progress as you move that 12-month window forward nonetheless um we're looking for data that confirm the kind of low readings that we had last year uh and and give us a a higher degree of confidence that what we saw was really inflation moving sustainably down to 2% toward 2% uh Gina smik the New York Times thank you for taking our questions per your comment to an that a weakening in the labor market would be a reason to potentially cut rates or at least a consideration in making a rate cut would continued strength in the labor market be a reason to hold off on rate cuts and just in general if labor Supply continued to Rebound in 2024 the way it did in 2023 what would stronger hiring and possibly stronger growth mean for the path forward on policy yeah so so if we're if what we're getting is um a lot of supply and a lot of demand and that Supply is actually feeding demand because workers are getting paid and they're spending and that's you know what you would have is potentially uh kind of what you had last year which is a bigger economy where where inflationary pressures are not increasing in fact they were decreasing so you can have that if you have the continued supply side uh activity that we had last year with with uh both with um Supply chains and also with with uh growth in the size of the labor force but so strong hiring in and of itself would not be a reason to hold off on rate cuts no not not all by itself no I mean we we saw you saw last year very strong Hing hiring and inflation coming down quickly we now have a better sense that a big part of that was supply side healing particularly with with um growth in the labor force so in and of itself strong job grow growth is not a reason uh you know for us to be concerned about inflation Neil hi chair pal Neil one with the axios uh how do you assess the state of financial conditions right now and particularly in particular do you uh view the kind of easing and financial conditions since the fall as consistent and compatible with what you're trying to achieve on the inflation mandate so we think there are many different Financial conditions indicators and you can kind of uh you know see different answers to that question but ultimately we do think that um Financial conditions are are weighing on economic activity and we think you see that in a great place to see it is in the labor market where you've seen demand um cooling off a little bit from the extremely high levels and there I would point to job openings quits surveys uh the the um the hiring rate things like that are really demand there also supply side things happening but I think those are demand side things happening um you know we saw that's been a question for a while we did see progress on inflation last year uh significant progress uh despite uh you know Financial conditions sometimes being tighter sometimes looser Michael McGee with the Bloomberg radio and television can you give us uh more color uh on how the committee is thinking about inflation Dynamics now uh what we've seen at the beginning of the year are they more one-off increases that will fade or is there more of a secular turn with Goods prices rising again and service prices staying sticky and also housing prices have been sort of the gdau of this uh cycle in that you keep expecting them to go down and they don't how does the committee see this playing out forward since you've raised your uh inflation forecast so I I see the committee looking at at the two months of data and asking the same question you're asking and saying we're just going to have to see what the data show uh as I mentioned you can look at January which is very high reading and you can and I think many advis many people did uh see the possibility of seasonal adjustment problems there but again you don't want to you got to be careful about dismissing the the parts of the data that you don't like so um then February wasn't wasn't as high but it was higher so the question is what are we going to see you know we tend to see a little bit stronger this is in the data A Little Bit Stronger inflation in the first half of the year a little bit less strong later in the year we're going to that we're going to let the data um show I don't I don't think we really know whether this is a bump on the road or something more we'll have to find out in the meantime the economy is strong the labor market is strong uh inflation has come way down and that gives us the ability to approach this question carefully and and you know feel more confident that inflation is moving down sustainably to 2% when we take that step to begin dialing back uh our restrictive policy well you've talked about the the desire to have confidence that inflation is continually moving down has the recent uh numbers we've gotten for inflation data dented that confidence at all it certainly hasn't improved our confidence it hasn't raised anyone's confidence but confidence but I would say that the the um the story is really essentially the same that and that is of inflation coming down gradually toward 2% on a sometimes bumpy path as I mentioned I think that's what you still see we we've got nine months of 2 and a half% inflation now um and we've had two months of kind of bumpy inflation we we were saying that we'll it's going to be a bumpy ride we consistently said that now here are some bumps and the question is are they more than bumps and we just don't we can't know that um that's why we are approaching this question carefully it is very important for everyone that we serve that we do get inflation sustainably down and uh I think the the historical record you know it's every situation is different but the historical record is that you you need to approach that question carefully and and try to get it right the first time and not have to come back uh and raise rates again perhaps if you if you cut inappropriately prematurely thank you Mr chair Edward Lawrence with Fox Business um I wanted to ask you uh you received a letter from um well Federal Reserve versus independent body understanding Congress has oversight over that you received a letter from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon White House that said um calling on you to lower interest rates to cut interest rates because it says quote the potential that it may remain too high for too long has halted advances in deploying Renewable Energy Technologies and delayed significant climate and economic benefits from these projects so has higher interest rates cause that have they well first of all I respect our you know we in our system of government it is Congress that has oversight responsibility over the FED we place a tremendous amount of importance on our engagements with Congress and always treat them with with great respect um in this case I would say those are you know our mandate our mandate is for maximum employment and price stability and the other things that we do uh and that's what we're trying to accomplish we're trying to do that in a way that sustains the strong growth we're seeing the strong labor market we're seeing but allows us to make further progress with inflation that's how we can best serve the public and leave the other issues in which in many cases are incredibly important such as those you mentioned leave those to the people who have responsibility for those there's another letter from two dozen lawmakers saying that the higher rates are squeezing the working people how do these letters affect what you guys are doing policy-wise we we we receive these respect these letters with respect and we write careful responses and address concerns we listen again because we're talking to the people who in our system of government have oversight over our activity so that's but but at the end of the day we take that on board but we have to make our judgments and we have to stick to our knitting which is maximum employment price stability supervise and regulate the banks work on the payment system the things that we do um C thank you CLA Jones Financial Times um thanks a lot for the opportunity to ask a question um as as chair of the fomc would you want to see unanimity on the committee or something close to it meaning no more than one descend before you begin cutting rates thank you I I we're a very consensus oriented U organization and we do try to achieve con uh consensus and and ideally unanimity people do dissent it's something that happens life goes on and it's not a problem we've always had to sense uh but and so I you know and you you you respect thoughtful to sense very much um it's like you you may not agree with with some arguments but you really want to understand them so you may read a book that takes a position that that you have long opposed just to understand that book so I I treat sense with with real respect as well simonovich with the economist um can you hear me yes okay great um obviously inflation is some ways away from Target uh unemployment though if you look at the projection for the full year 4 4.0% uh in February uh we were already at 3.9% so quite close to the median projection are you concerned all that not withstanding the very strong jobs growth um that in fact there may be some cracks appearing in the employment Market uh you talked about a significant deterioration in the labor market being a condition for for easing rates what would constitute uh that in your books thank you so we of course monitor the it's one of our two goal variables we we all monitor the labor market very very carefully and I I don't see those cracks today and we you know we follow all the possible stories that are out there about about there being cracks but the the over all picture really is strong labor market the extreme imbalances that we saw in the early uh parts of the pandemic recovery have mostly been resolves resolved you're seeing High job growth you're seeing big increases in Supply you're seeing strong wage growth but wage growth is gradually moderating down to more sustainable levels uh in many many respects um the uh things are returning more to the their state in 2019 which we can think of as normal for this purpose that's job openings and quits and surveys of workers and and businesses are always interesting on this you know how tight is the how easy is it to find a job how hard is how easy it is to find a worker those have both those surveys have both come down so the labor Market's in it's in good shape um you know uh you do see things like the low uh the low hiring rate and people have made the argument that if if um if layoffs were to increase uh that that would that would mean that the net would be fairly quick increases in unemployment so that's something we're watching but we're not seeing it of course um initial claims are are very very low and if anything have track tracked down a little bit so watching it carefully don't see it and when I say U something I use the term unexpected weakening in the labor market so you know uh we do expect the unemployment rate to you know the forecast is that would would move up I think closer to what we see as the longer on sustainable level that's just a that's just people's forecast individual forecasts but um we're talking about something that's unexpected that's that's where I'll leave it though Steve Steve Matthews with Bloomberg uh you mentioned at the beginning of the press conference that it that the committee felt it might be appropriate to slow the pace of asset runoff fairly soon I'm wondering is when you say fairly soon does that mean that the committee would uh meet about this again in May and a decision could be reached that soon and I was wondering if you could also just describe the the scope of what the committee is discussing you're you're at $95 billion of of uh caps right now would that be cut about in half or something in that nature thank you um so that is what we're discussing essentially is is um and we're not discussing all the other many other balance sheet issues we will discuss those in the in due course but what we're really looking at is is uh slowing the pace of runoff there isn't much runoff among NBS in NBS right now but there is in treasuries and we're talking about going to a lower Pace I don't want to give you a specific number because we haven't made a haven't made had an agreement or a decision but that's that's the idea um and uh that's what we're looking at and and in terms of the timing I said fairly soon I wouldn't want to try to be more specific than that but you get the idea um the the idea is and this is in our in our longer run plans that we may actually be able to get to a lower level because we would avoid the kind of frictions that can can happen liquidity is not evenly distributed in the system and there can be times when in the aggregate reserves are are ample or even abundant but not in every part and and those those parts where they're not ample there can be stress and that can cause you to prematurely stop the process to avoid the stress and then it would be very hard to restart we think so as something like that happened in in 19 perhaps so um so that's what we're doing we're looking at what would be a good time and what would be a good structure and you know fairly soon as words that we use to mean fairly soon and will there be a discussion about returning to an all treasuries balance sheet at some point so that our our longer run goal is is to a return to a a balance sheet that is mostly treasuries I do expect that once we're through this um we'll we'll come back to the other issues about the composition and the maturity and revisit those issues but it's you know not urgent right now we want to get want to get this uh this decision made first and then we can when the time is right come back to the other issues Victoria hi Victoria Guido with Politico um also on the balance sheet um you know can you talk a little bit about how the outlook for the banking sector might impact your balance sheet plans do you worry that as deposits start to shrink that we could see more turbulence you know we'll we'll be watching carefully but one of the reasons we're we're slowing down we will soon enough uh fairly soon I should say slow down is that uh we want to avoid any any kind of uh of of that of turbulence I wasn't thinking particularly about about banking sector turbulence but um we and we we had some indicators uh the last time this is our second time in in in doing this and I think we're we're going to be paying a lot of attention to the the things that started to happen and that foreshadowed what eventually happened at at the end of that tightening cycle where we where we wound up in a short Reserve situation and we don't want to do that again and I think now we have a better sense of what are the indicators it isn't it wasn't so much in the banking system as it was around for example um where federal funds is trading relative to the administered rates and where where secured rates are relative to the to the administered rates those sorts of things we will always be watching the banking system for for similar signs though well is it also because you're not sure exactly how the reserve Supply will react once the overnight reverse Rebo facility you know drops nearer at zero I well I think we broadly think that once the overnight repo uh stabilizes either at zero or close to zero that as the balance sheet shrinks we should expect that reserves will decline pretty close to dollar for dooll with that that's what we think Jean hi chair P Gan young with m& market news um I wanted to ask also about the balance sheet um will you you said that starting the taper SU ER could get to get you to a smaller balance sheet size um does that mean you don't have to make a decision on when to end QT at this point and and um will you be setting up um the process for deciding that sooner or or will you wait until we're close to the end so uh it's sort of ironic that by going slower you can get farther but that's the idea the the idea is that um with a smoother transition you won't you'll run much less risk of uh kind of liquidity problems which can grow into shocks and which can cause you to stop the process prematurely so so that's that's where in terms of How It Ends um we're going to be monitoring carefully uh money market conditions and asking ourselves what whether they what they're telling us about reserves are they right now we would characterize them as abundant and what we're aiming for is ample and you know which is a little a little bit less than abundant right so um there isn't a you know there's not a dollar amount or a percent of GDP or anything like that where we we think we have a really pretty clear understanding of that we're going to be we're going to be looking at what what these you know what's happening in money markets uh in particular a bunch of different indicators including the ones I mentioned to tell us when we're getting close then though you re you reach a point ultimately where you stop uh allowing the balance sheet to run off and you but then from that point there's another period in which non- reserves Li non-reserve liabilities grow organically like currency and that also shrinks Reserves at a very slow pace so you have a you have a you know a a slower pace of runoff uh which we'll have uh fairly soon then you have another time where you where you you effectively hold the balance sheet constant and allow non-reserve liabilities to expand and then and then that that ultimately brings you ideally in for you know bring brings it into a nice easy Landing uh at at a level that is above you know above what we think the lowest possible ample number would be we're not trying for that we're we want to have a cushion a buffer because we know that demand for uh reserves can be very volatile and we we don't want to again find ourselves in a situation where there aren't reserves we have to turn around and you know buy assets and put reserves back in the banking system the way we did in 201920 hi Nancy Marshall ginzer with Marketplace chair Paul um you said you're waiting to become more confident that inflation is getting to your 2% goal before you cut rates can you just sum up more specifically what data you're looking at that would give you that confidence sure so we're most importantly we're looking at the incoming inflation data and the contents of it and what they're telling us so that'll be and also the the various components so obviously that's what we want we want more confidence that inflation uh is coming down sustainably toward 2% uh and I mean of course we'll also be looking at all the other things that are happening in the economy we'll look at the totality of the data including everything essentially as we make that assessment but the most important thing will be the inflation data that coming in but are there things that you would give more weight to like wages wages is one thing we don't our our Target is not wages it's really inflation we but we would we would look to the fact that um wages are still coming in very strong but but they've been wage increases that is to say wage increases have been have been quite strong but they're they're gradually coming down to levels that uh are more sustainable over time and and that's what we want uh we don't think that the inflation was not originally caused we think I don't think by by mostly by by wages that wasn't really the story um but we do think that to get inflation back down to 2% sustainably we'd like to see you know continuing gradual movement of wage increases at still high levels but back down to levels that are that are more sustainable over time goodg thank you uh Greg Rob from market watch chair pal could you say at this meeting whether there were more officials who wanted to be careful and go slower than about rates than were in at the last meeting was there was there that sense of maybe it's a it's smart to to wait thanks I I guess I put it this way um the if you look at the incoming inflation data that we've had for January and February I think very broadly that um suggests that we we were right to to wait until we're more confident so I think I think you know I I didn't hear anyone dismissing it is as not information that we should look at or anything like that so I think generally speaking it does go in the direction of saying yes it's it's it's appropriate for us to be careful as we approach this question thanks chair pal Brendan Peterson with punch B news um I wanted to ask you about Central Bank digital currency stuff um we've been hearing a lot from republicans in Congress about what the FED is or is it doing in a digital dollar um but folk I know you have said to Congress that you are going to wait for approval before the FED does anything uh launches anything but folks like House Majority Whip Tom emmer have said that the FED is either actively researching or hiring person Personnel to study the implications of a cbdc can you give us any Clarity on what the FED is doing right now on a digital dollar sure so I think we've been pretty transparent on this but I will uh I'll try harder um so we uh we are not getting ready to prop we haven't proposed we haven't come to a conclusion that we should propose or anything like that a that Congress consider legislation to authorize a digital dollar and it would take legislation by Congress signed by the president to to give us the ability to do the what we think of as a cbdc which is really a retail cbdc with with the public of so so we're just a long long way from that what we are doing and I think what every major Central Bank is doing is we're we're trying to stay in the frontiers of what's going on in digital finance and it has many many different uh areas you know it has applications in wholesale Finance in in the payment system and so we need we to serve the public we need these these issues have become very front burner in the last five or six years we need to be knowledgeable about all that so we actually do have people trying to understand things that are but but it's wrong to say that we're working on a cbdc and then we've got secretly got a lab here where we've got one and we're just going to spring it on Congress at the right moment we don't not I I haven't at all in my own mind made a decision that I think this is something the US should be doing uh you know I just think it's something we need to be we need to understand and we do have people who are keeping up with that as part of the broader payments landscape that's that's how I would characterize it mark thank you it's Mark hamri with bank rate Mr chairman April 27th will Mark the 13th anniversary since a Fed chairman began holding regular news conferences how important has that higher transparency been in your view both for the proper functioning of the Central Bank uh and also in accomplishing your mission and is there more that you and your colleagues can do on the transparency front and what might that look like I I generally think um I this this movement actually started you know 30 years ago more 30 years ago um when some academics uh posited that a more transparent Central Bank if the public understands your reaction function the markets will do your work for you they'll react to the data and and so it all happens that way and so there's been a March toward greater and greater transparency and um that certainly chairman banki Advanced that so chairman Greenspan did Cher Yellen did and I you know so we went from four four press conferences the year to eight so now every every meeting really is live now I think that's a good Innovation I I wouldn't I wouldn't want to turn it back we also have done a bunch of other things uh you know we we have a annual uh supervision report Financial stability report um I mean there's a long list of things that we've done I think you um I mean nothing comes to mind as really desperately in need of doing at this moment we're very transparent we have no shortage of fomc participants speaking to the public through the media and so that that channel is full I would say um so I think I think it's generally broadly helped and made things better but not every day and in every way well the followup has there ever been a day where you wanted to put that Genie back in the bottle somewhat of course not let's go to Jennifer for the last question thank you chair pal Jennifer sha burger with Yahoo finance uh not to harp too much more on confidence and inflation but she did say earlier in this press conference that the recent inflation data hasn't raised anyone's confidence but when you testified before the Senate a couple weeks ago you told lawmakers that you are quote not far from receiving the confidence needed on inflation to begin cutting rates so are you still of that belief or not what are we to take by those words not far so let me say my my main message at that um uh in those two days of hearings was really that the Comm the committee needs to see more evidence to build our confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our 2% goal and we don't expect that it will be appropriate to begin to reduce rates until we're more confident than that is the case I that that is the case I said that any number of times so those were kind of the main part of the message we repeated that today uh in our statement I also to the language you mentioned I I I really pointed out that we had made significant progress over the past year and what we're looking for now is confirmation that that progress will continue um uh we had a series of in of um inflation readings over the second half of last year that were were really much lower uh we didn't overreact as I mentioned but that that's what I had in mind but given that you said that pce for February 2.8% the estimate and that we have been seeing PC core PC coming down by 10% every month I mean wouldn't you be at about 2.4% this summer June July to a point where you could cut then well you know we'll just have to see how the data uh the data come in um we would of course love to get great inflation data we got really good inflation data on the second the second part of last year again we didn't overreact to it we said we needed to see more and uh we said it would be bumpy and now we have January and February which I've talked about a couple of times so you know we're looking for for more good data and we would certainly welcome it thank you thank you thank you e |
9f1rAuJU4wU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9f1rAuJU4wU | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why HSBC has an Overweight rating on US and Japanese markets | yelds are taking slightly lower here ahead of the Federal Federal Reserve latest interest rate decision and latest economic projections now here to talk about what this could mean for your portfolio we want to bring in Willam Sals he is hsbc's global private banking and wealth Global Chief investment officer it's great to see you there Willi so how are you thinking about what we are going to hear from fed chare J pal and will it at all affect your strategy here going forward um you know obviously it will be interesting to watch you know more the language rather than the action I don't think the FED will do anything um you know at this meeting we still think they will start to cut in June um but the language is obviously very important because the market has been reass setting you know how many rate hikes we exactly are going to get this year and and starting when um you know but the prospect of rate Cuts right um the prospect of rate cuts um is is obviously an um you know very positive for markets and therefore we have been putting our cash to work typically what happens is that both bonds and equities rally well ahead um you know of that First Rate cup and um you know that's indeed what we're seeing again as well where is the hottest spot to put cash to work right now Willam um the US um actually um and um you know we continue to be overweight on US Stocks um the US economy has been very resilient and it's not just the economy it's also the earnings um you know which continue to grow um together with the margins actually in the US um and that's um you know the stand out really around the world the other country that we like um to add to that um in part because of its um own uh local situation but also because it helps really diversify portfolio is Japan um where we're also seeing that positive momentum um and there is a reflation tradeit now in Japan actually getting a little bit of inflation is a good thing um and that's um you know why we um also have an overweight on Japan you know it's interesting based on some of the the fact Set uh analysis of the earnings that we've seen so far this quarter for for q1 2024 this is looking forward then uh in current quarter analysis 78 S&P 500 companies issuing negative EPS guidance 32 issuing positive EPS guidance when you think about ultimately what companies are are trying to get ahead of and trying to spell out to investors you know why in this case is the Hotpot us equities and and on the back of some of the guidance and some of the earnings that's expected yeah we often get the question is it just the max 7 that is you know that are driving the earnings and you know to some extent if you look at the sector composition of where you see that earnings growth it will immediately reject that hypothesis because um you know we do see earnings growth in um you know technology positive earnings revisions in technology and Communications where there are some max sevens but we're also see seeing it in the industrial space and in the financials so it is more broad-based than people think and that's why you know we want to broaden that exposure as well the other question that we get is around valuation of the max 7 um but given that we also see earnings Gro elsewhere we're happy to broaden that sector exposure to these other sectors and that helps lower your average valuation somewhat well do you see any validity or any reason to be concerned about tech valuations or this talk here of an AI bubble um AI in my view is going to spread um you know whatever client that I talk to and obviously we have many business owners amongst our clients every single business owner tell me that they're using AI to some extent already sometimes it's marginal but in many cases it's already actually reasonably sub substantial in the area of ordering in Inventory management but also Logistics um you know they client servicing and so on so I do think this is something that is really going to come and going to spread from those couple of comp that handful of companies that so far are benefiting to a much broader area um and that will lead to productivity gain um you know which to some extent you're starting to see already and in that productivity gains how does that pass through as well from your estimation to profitability gains as well yeah so as you have that profit uh productivity gains you become um you know with with the same uh number of of uh you know workers I don't think by the way that there will be huge layoffs on the back of this so that's the positive news um but with the same amount of workers you get that AI that acts as a co-pilot if you want um or a helper to those workers to make them more product productive um that leads to more output um at the same you know labor market costs therefore increases earnings and that helps um um the earnings growth and therefore ultimately um the stock market well while we have you I got to ask you about the moves that we've seen within crypto right now because Bitcoin obviously surging then we've seen a pullback here today and bring that up just in terms of the risk perspective or risk appetite that we're seeing from investors right now how are you looking at the investor interest within crypto and and factoring that into where you are seeing some of the opportunity within the market yeah we're not very active in this space there is um I do think that there is a link obviously to the launch of that ETF I think there is also an element of diversification that people are looking for that diversification we find you know across alsoo traditional AET PL so what how we are dealing with it um you know is to make sure that we have both both BS and Equity it's easier now to hold bonds with the interest rates and the yields you know much more attracted than a few years ago um so that complement to your equities but also Alternatives so alternative asset includes private Equity private credit where people can own that together with infrastructure infrastructure for us is one of the most exciting asset PL because it really Taps into um you know that Reon Shoring um the data Le economy and also the Net Zero transition a Hu huge investment that needs to take place not just in the US but also in Europe and even in Asia as well um and that helps diversify infrastructure has a link as well in terms of its returns to um inflation so if people are worried about sticky inflation it might be an AET class to consider Willam cell who is the HSBC Global private banking and wealth Global Chief investment Officer William thanks so much for taking the time today real pleasure |
q9KblTGKr5o | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9KblTGKr5o | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed holds rates steady, forecasts 3 rate cuts in 2024 | no change the Val Reserve holding rate steady in the range of 5 and a quar to 5 and a half% as officials still see three rate Cuts this year this even as officials revised their outlook for inflation higher this year based on core pce to 2.6% from 2.4% previously forecast officials also upwardly revising their outlook for GDP sharply to 2.1% from 1.4% previously unemployment now seen finishing the year at 4% versus 4.1% previously nine officials now see cutting rates three times this year that's up from six while five see two cut while five see two cuts and two see one cut next year officials now see only three Cuts as opposed to four four Cuts previously forecast officials again cautioning they won't begin lowering rates until they achieve greater confidence that inflation is heading back to their 2% Target sustainably now I do want to also mention the neutral rate because that was raised by a hair to 2.6% from 2.5% previously forecast remember that is the rate that neither Spurs nor suppresses growth now separately on the balance sheet no changes in language in the statement officials said that they will uh carry forward with plans as previously announced this decision was unanimous |
JR8sY_lMUKI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JR8sY_lMUKI | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Home Depot and Lowe's are preparing for a 'renovation boom,' analyst says | the US housing market seeing some bright spots housing starts in February Rising nearly 11% well above January's revised estimate with Builders benefiting from low inventory and also from mortgage rates softening just a bit well as we head into a pivotal season for home buying analysts remaining largely bullish on Home Improvement stocks mizuo initiating coverage on both lows and Home Depot with buy ratings naming Lowe's a top pick for more on this we want to bring in David Bellinger he is muho America's director and Senior analyst it's great to have you here so let's start with Lowe's being a top pick uh within your coverage based right now what is it about lows that you think better positions that name versus Home Depot which you also see uh upside with good morning and thanks for having me on so yes we we do like the Home Improvement space we are beginning to see some green shoots in these housing numbers somewhat better housing activity but we step back and look at Lowe's versus Home Depot we clear like both names but we prefer Lowe's as our top pick within our consumer hardlines coverage and our top pick overall and what we like here most especially for Lowe's is that they've got this bigger do-it-yourself piece of the business it's about 75% of sales Home Depot are about 50% and we think that gives Lowe's better leverage to any early turns in existing home sales so any homeowner knows once you buy a house you're typically in these stores every weekend two or three years constantly fixing projects so those over indexes in those categories like paint outdoor you know patio seasonal categories so we think that gives Lowe's a bit of a leg up we expect comp sales to turn positive towards the back half of this year if if we don't see what has been dubbed as the I think silver tsunami where there's a wave of um baby boomer homeowners that don't list their properties because they want to just sit on that for a little longer and wait for uh the environment to emerge where they're seeing multiple and and dozens of bids start to come in on a property if we don't see that come forward what do that then mean for the amount of buyers that may say you know what I'll just go look for a potential new home buildout instead and how that could translate through to Home Depot and Lowe's yeah good question and then there's no doubt there's been sort of a freeze on housing activity over the past 12 to 24 months and I I think the homeowner or the potential homeowner is looking to get in at at a good price and and whether that's existing home sales new home sales I I think there's a lot of demand out there we looked at a lot of data we looked at Google Trends data and it seems like demand for housing is almost at you know Peak 2021 type levels so we think there's a lot of Demand on the sidelines ready to be unlocked if we get lower rates that's a nice added accelerant but if we also look at just the longer term demand Dynamics for Home Improvement one key stat about 50% of the US housing stock right now is aged 40 or older and these homes tend to be you know leaky buckets there's always some kind of Maintenance activity you have to put in place and we we projected this number out over the next several decades and that 50% is steadily moving up towards about 65% by 2050 so you've got a long Tailwind of just older houses potential remodeling remodeling activity and we do see a potential for this sort of renovation Renaissance or renov Boom coming over the next several decades and Home Dep and Lowe's they're positioning their businesses for this they're going after the big complex Pro and that will lead them to have what I view as a pretty elevated sales base for years and years to come David if we do see the FED uh delay potentially its first R cut even further than what the market is pricing in right now is that going to then have that ripple effect and delay this turnaround or boost that you're expecting to see within that within housing activity potentially yes and I would say that our estimates and our thesis on both of these stocks we don't necessarily bake in rate Cuts before the year end you know that's in line with our mizuo macro View and we spent a lot of time studying this post-pandemic poststimulus digestion period right home Dupo and Lowe's saw an enormous acceleration in their business you're talking about a low to mid single digigit comp sales number is good for them there were some months in 2020 where these companies were comping 30 40% that that's just unheard of for companies with north of a hundred billion doll sales base so we spent a lot of time studying this we think we're at the tail end of this digestion period And even absent you know these rate cuts that you know some people are expecting throughout the year we we don't necessarily see that but as Lowe's and Home Depot lap some of these you know easier comparisons that turn South towards the back half of last year I think if demand stays where it is you're you're getting back to flattish potentially slightly positive low singled digit type comp sales and that'll give us a better Runway into 2025 especially if we do have a a more forceful rate cut activity going into next year you have a really extensive and and interesting coverage list here I mean any coverage list that includes Stitch fix as well as Mr Car Wash absolutely catches my attention but and Mr Car Wash is one of your top picks right now but I want to focus in specifically on Wayfair where this broader kind of homes landscape and where Wayfair fits in to potential home buyers or even the um the the Renaissance that you were talking about the renovation Renaissance that we could see where does Wayfair get its legs yeah absolutely and our our coverage is built to follow the connected consumer and this next wave of digital spending who doesn't love a good car wash but boy Fair does fit in here this is sort of a secondary call on Home Improvement on housing getting better so so way Fair we did a very similar digestion phase analysis we're starting to see some positive inflection in us-based order growth so the numbers are starting to inflect slightly positive Wayfair actually had their first year-over-year Positive Growth number for active customers last quarter and that was the first time since Q3 of 21 so so I think we're getting there and I don't think the market is fully appreciating a much leaner Wayfair model now this this company clearly over hired through 2020 and 2021 they've cut back somewhere between 20 and 25% on their headcount and they've pulled out about $2 billion in annualized cost out of the model so if you do get stabilizing to slightly positive Revenue growth into next year I think you're going to see a rapid profitability Improvement for Wayfair there's Bears who will argue that this company might not be structurally profitable we we very much disagree with that and we see them getting to about a mid single digit eida margin this year they've got a path to get to 10% over long term that might be 3 5 years away but I think if we see stabilizing revenues to slightly positive Revenue growth in 2024 and after you know this stock has a lot of upside to it David great to have you on here with us today we know that you've got a lot of companies to keep tabs on including Five Below later on after the Bell we'll be checking back in in the future appreciate the time David Bellinger who is the mizuo America's director and Senior analyst thanks so much |
LvdH_5B4yw0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvdH_5B4yw0 | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street bonuses are down — here's why | well cash bonuses fell across Wall Street during a challenging 2023 but for some top Executives they were able to Buck the trend here with the details we've got yaho finances David holler David what did you find in the millions and the billions of dollars range for some of these Executives yeah so Brad you know uh recent filings have shown us um that cash bonuses uh despite uh the New York com troller finding that on average cash bonuses on Wall Street fell uh two % last year um cash bonuses for uh CEOs of major Wall Street banks that includes CEOs of Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley City group and Wells Fargo all actually Rose um now this is interesting for a lot of reasons uh one I think is just to point out that I I think people forget sometimes that the actual uh Wall Street bonuses do come back to the state and city via tax revenues so this is something they pay pay attention to and watch but one reason why the average might have fallen last year uh the comproller cided yesterday talking to us was U Market volatility and then also um the amount of younger workers who have actually joined the Securities industry last year so those are two reasons that are brought up and again more younger workers joining the industry is overall not a bad thing um but it's obviously a STK contrast to the amount amount of uh salary that the CEOs of the big banks have that being said you know compensation for them is always based around different kinds of things it's not necessarily just how deals are going but on that note you know the big story of last year that we've talked about a lot has been this Investment Banking slump um and what's interesting here now is that um the investment banking slum slump it looks like uh could have a Revival that means you know a Revival in the IPO market and also in mergers and Acquisitions and you know it's important to watch not just because the S it signals um how Wall Street firms are doing and also you know how morale is for those employees but also what tax revenues are going to look like for New York state and city now the comp troller told us that they had actually estimated uh greater declines in the average bonuses from last year and because of that they not there's not going to be a negative drag on the overall budget but it all comes back to just why the Revival and Investment Banking is really important this year and we have been seeing some signs it also comes takes us back to today and why it's so important with the FED not so much about whether or not there are Cuts but whether or not there's certainty in the economy David thanks so much for digging into the numbers here laying this out for us really appreciate it y Finance Zone David David HTH |
Y3JDpFpDHzc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3JDpFpDHzc | 2024-03-23 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Disney: How a cartoonist's ideas evolved into a $33 billion media empire | [Music] from Hollywood Blockbusters to theme parks branded as the happiest place on Earth the Walt Disney Company has built itself into an entertainment Juggernaut the media giant generated total revenue of nearly 33 billion in 2023 an increase of about 16% year-over-year beyond the ticker Dives deeper into Disney's success and how it became a household name in 1923 Walt Disney and his brother Roy established Disney Brothers cartoon studio in Los Angeles 5 years later New York's Colony theater premiered Steamboat Willie the first cartoon released with synchronized sound it also marked the debut of Mickey Mouse Disney eventually released its first feature film Snow White in the seven dwares in 1937 the film saw instant success becoming the highest grossing title of all time to that point Disney's first theme park came about a decade and a half later with California's Disneyland opening its doors in July 1955 it was regarded as the first modern theme park in the United States 2 years later Disney hit the stock market with an initial public offering price of $13.88 a share in December 1966 Walt Disney died at the age of 65 but his legacy would most certainly live on Walt Disney World named in the filmmaker's honor opened on October 1st 1971 in Orlando Florida but as Disney began to evolve as a company so did its leadership team with famed CEO Michael Eisner taking over the position in 1984 in his first four years Disney surged from last place to First in box office receips among the eight major studios in 1996 Disney merged with capital Ci's ABC for $19 billion at the time it was the second largest merger in US history and then the Bob Iger era Iger succeeded Michael Eisner as CEO in 2005 setting off a chain of events that included a slew of famous Acquisitions under iger's leaders ship Disney became an equity owner of Hulu and also acquired all of Marvel entertainment he led the acquisition of Lucas film coughing up about 4 billion for properties that included Star Wars and Indiana Jones He also bought 21st Century Fox for about 71 billion and one of the largest media purchases ever shortly after the company launched Disney plus the streaming service officially surpassed Netflix with 221 million total subscribers in 2022 that same year Bob Iger returned at CEO in a shocking executive shakeup he had hand selected Bob chapek as his predecessor just two years prior but chose to return amid multiple controversies and a sinking stock price one of those controversies included a battle with Florida Governor Ronda santis Following iger's return Disney sued to santis accusing him of violating the company's First Amendment rights by utilizing political power for quote government retaliation a federal judge dismissed the lawsuit determining that Disney's position ultimately lacked standing or the right to sue Disney has filed a notice of appeal although the future remains unclear with proxy battles linear Network declines profitability struggles and slowing theme park attendance Iger appears committed to bringing back Disney's [Music] Magic |
UGCQjhbn56g | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGCQjhbn56g | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed rate cut uncertainty 'could trigger equity market volatility,' Schwab Asset Management CEO says | Futures this morning are flat ahead of the FED decision this afternoon one of the big focal points in this afternoon will be the Dopp lot whether or not Central Bankers still see three rate Cuts before the end of the year we want to bring in Omar agular he Schwab asset Management's CEO and chief investment officer Omar it's great to see you here so my question to you is we have been talking so much about the Dot Plot right now and what it signals the last issue we got uh central banks uh Central Bankers saw three Cuts before the end of the year how much does that matter to the equity movement that we'll likely see in reaction to the Dot Plot well you know good morning yeah normally you know we see Fed days you we tend to see a lot of volatility going into um the close to the announcement around you know you know 2 pm and you know today and you know after after they make the decision and after they make the announcement a lot of the focus is really just on the language of what the FED might signal I think uh you know looking at the potential signal of whether or not the market believes that June will be the starting point and today you know right now as you actually look at fed fund Futures you know roughly it's a 50/50 it's still you know up in the air and that may trigger that Equity Market volatility and yield volatility in the bond market as well as you know people will try to extrapolate any words that signal that the FED is sort of either pushing higher and faster for the beginning of the rate increases or they will potentially push you know for further out um you know the data dependent language will still be there the patient language will still be there and I think it's just any signals that will suggest that they're looking at other pieces of data you know Omar as you put within your notes to us as well here historically central banks they don't have a tendency to cut rates ahead of economic deceleration here so why is the case different this time potentially well you know the the historical high levels of inflation that the FED has been you know looking to um reduce is certainly a very different path of what we had and a lot of that obviously is related to the pandemic we had in 2020 and the supply change disruptions that we had so I think the the big trade-offs that the FED is and other central banks are trying to do is you know is the sticky inflation so hard and therefore we need to be more patient and try to keep these higher levels of rates for a little longer or do we think that there is a risk that we're going to push the economy into recession so far you know the economy seems to be incredibly resilient and a lot of the inflation data seems to point out that it's all coming from the services sector now when that what that means is that that Supply chains disruption that we saw back in 2020 and in 2021 you know has completely gone away and therefore what is left is that service section inflation that the FED continues to um you know be restrictive about now what is what is the big trade of is whether or not that real fed fund rates that is very high right now it's something that potentially have an impact on GDP growth Omar when when we talk about the calculus right now about the risk of recession there was a Bank of America uh survey out earlier this week talking about the fact that not as many people are anticipating that we will see a recession if in fact we do see the FED though reduce the do lot to two only two cuts before the end of the year how much will we see that risk rise here for a recession do you see it making a material difference well the there is a there is a clear um signal in in many cases that the FED tends to be lay to any decisions and in this particular case the Federal Reserve seems to be incredibly data dependent and goes data by data um you know the the big part of this it comes down to both consumers and labor market you know to the extent that the labor market stays where you are stays strong with so levels of wage inflation or wage growth that is you know consistent with us economic growth I think the FED will continue to just push that and the and probability of our recession may be low however if we start seeing like a pick up in in potential um inflation numbers mostly through Services whether is through wage growth or whether it's just consumption you know a big part of what it may happen is that the FED will probably need to be faster in terms of cutting rates which we will probably be a signal of of our recession and remember in many cases the FED tends to just go faster in reducing rates when when recession is almost here or it's already at the time of their recession in many cases they're late um so in this particular case one data point that is important to to point out here is that we have seen an increasing in productivity which is great because that's usually not inflationary and tends to actually support economic growth and so at this point Omar what is the what is the strategy play that you would emplore to many investors out there I mean there there's some crowded spots in this market right now whether it's long tech or whether it's kind of short China equities or for some out there it's long Bitcoin where are you telling clients and and where are you identifying some opportunities outside of the most crowded trades well you know we when we look at everything we just discussed H about the monetary policy cycle when you see where the economic um cycle is going we clearly have old signs that we're on the last phase of the economic cycle I think the bigger question that we continue to um try to get a sense from the market and from Central Bank officials is whether or not we're going to get into the soft landing and I probably say fed officials are in that particular task of trying to just hit that um you know soft Landing that we all you know been looking for yes the the word of the recession and the risk of the recession was is much lower now than it was you know even a year ago uh but overall what we're going continue to encourage our invest S is to think about this as an opportunity to position themselves and position their strategies for the next part of the cycle which is when the economy recovers and what that means is you know continue to position yourselves away from you know the the typical you know sectors and areas that do well through the recession or through the soft landing and then position part of their portfolio towards the recovery and that means cyclical sectors that means going into energy goes into materials going into financials and areas like small cab where you can actually see they're lagging from the mega caps as they probably do well whenever the um the economic recovery starts in that next phase Omar agar who is the shrob asset management CEO and CIO thank you so much for taking the time this morning |
rxRBe_71NLs | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxRBe_71NLs | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed decision day: 3 key things investors should watch at the FOMC meeting | [Music] less than 30 minutes until the start of trade today's top story the Federal Reserve announces its latest policy decision Tuesday well excuse me 2 p p.m eastern time today here with what investors should be looking out for is our very own Jennifer Shawn Burger Jennifer yeah that Tuesday and two day uh really sneaks up on a lot of people out there but it is Wednesday as you said Brad it is hump day it's Wednesday right yes exactly we we've made it halfway here we made it halfway congratulations well as you said the Fed Reserve convening just moments ago here in Washington for the second day of their two-day policy meeting where they're widely expected to hold rates steady in the range of 5 and a quarter to 5 and a half% here are three things you need to watch for the meeting this afternoon number one the main focus will be whether the FED still sees three rate Cuts this year or whether officials have scaled back cuts on hotter inflation data in the first two months of this year it only takes two officials to put down two rate Cuts this year for the median to shift to two cuts from three while the first two months of this year did see hotter inflation data if officials don't think that the latest inflation readings change the overall picture that much it might argue for leaving estimates where they are officials did warn it would be quote bumpy and guided on taking a cautious approach given the risk of hotter data which has shown true so these bumps in the road may already be built into their previous forecast number two investors will also look for Clues from Fed chair Pal's press conference on whether the First Rate cut is still possible in June as markets are pricing in or whether that timing could be pushed back and number three officials are discussing how to eventually stop the ongoing runoff of the fed's balance sheet or quantitative tightening will chair pal offer any insight into what officials discussed that decision coming down at 2m Eastern here in Washington guys all right Jen thanks so much and of course we will uh be following you for the latest on that and you're going to be joining the show right at 2 p.m. eastern time with that decision |
-DqP3xL_iAQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DqP3xL_iAQ | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin hovers around $64K, analyst says it's 'possible it can dip further' | Bitcoin recovering some of its earlier losses hovering around $64,000 just shy of that this morning after logging its worst single day drop since the FTX collapsed according to Yahoo finance data now the cryptocurrency falling from all-time highs it just hit last week joining us now we've got Owen La who is the Oppenheimer executive director and Senior analyst Owen for this dip should investors be buying in or should they be a little bit wary of what's taking place yeah good morning thank you for having me so I I think the the the reasons for this correction or a couple of things right number one Bitcoin was up 150% in 2023 it's up 50% year today and then if you look at the recent strength in this uh in in Bitcoin a lot of I think a big part of that it's tied to the Recon strength in the spot the net inflows into the net spot Bitcoin ETF and we started to see some net outflows from this product and finally and what you just talk about was the um inflation data was hotter than expected and we are actually looking to see where the FED would cut uh three times this year so what I would say is maybe investors can be a little bit more patient and wait for a little bit for this correction when we talk about the downside risk here Owen how big of a drop are you expecting we're right above 63,000 today could we drop below 60,000 yeah it it it is possible but I think it's again this is data independent so what we just start to see was the kind of the bigger outflow from this product I think uh yesterday we saw $600 million dollar outo from all this product mainly driven by gray scale and then um the FED decision today is pretty important as well if the FED decided to hey let's just cut two rates I think there will be further room to drop for for for Bitcoin so I think right now we we're just like dat dependent and it's possible that you can deep further you know it's really interesting as we think about the number of ETFs that have really boomed the inflow into crypto in in general here now when it comes to where we might see rotation or profit taking along the way what type of shocks should holders of Bitcoin or or crypto more broadly be ready for or prepared for I think if you look at the history of Bitcoin volatility it has been one of the most volatile assets so I think for new investors coming into this space if they don't know about the history of Bitcoin just go back and check about the history expect volatility in investing in this asset class so this is a high beta technology company if you want to like use the equities as an analogy some people use that as a digital gold but in anyway if you look at the history Bitcoin had it's has been very volatile so expect volatility going forward ohen going back to what you were saying earlier just in regards to the sentiment shift that we have seen do you think it's warranted at this point given the fact that there is many reasons like you have laid out in recent research notes to be optimistic about the price in the long term yeah I think over the long term uh I we are still optimistic because of couple of reasons number one we still see further adoption for spot Bitcoin ETF we are just still in the early Innings and remember Bitcoin is a global phenomenon so I think Black Rock listed in uh us and they are just going to list or they just listed IIT um their spot Bitcoin ETF in Brazil so you can tell um many of these asset managers can list this product overseas so and this product is homogeneous like you you can also buy Bitcoin in Asia in Singapore and also in Europe they have the same and the second point is uh right now I think the headwinds we are seeing um part of that came from probably came from the fat so if the feds decided to okay let's cut more rate next year we still see the case and calculat that that can support the Bitcoin price longer term so I would say longer term we are still optimistic about the Bitcoin price action oh and just lastly while we have you I was looking at one of the blog posts uh blog posts from coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted yesterday where he talks about some of the features moving forward popular examples digitizing the dollar fast cheap Global Payments business model for creatives decentralized social media Under the Umbrella of this title what is crypto good for anyway who are and and of course coinbase has a lot to gain by this but at the end of the day who are some of the biggest Crypt touching Equity Market plays that you've got your eye on and that could uh continue to see a sustained inflow or sustained positive reaction as a result of a lot of the new highs we've seen this year in crypto yeah thank you for pointing out these point I think there's some misunderstanding about digital assets have no use cases and Brian was so right that point out some of the actual use cases in this space um right now the largest one obviously is coinbase and there are some private companies that I don't want to comment at this point that could potentially disrupt the whole payment space and remittance space and and and for longer term so I do think tokenization is one of the use cases remittance and Global money transfer it's another big use case for digital ad set so I would say at current you know landscape I I'm still pretty positive on coinbase that can capitalize this opportunity but longer term you'll see more private companies going into public market and we we can talk more about that oh and you got to give us one give us one private Market company that you've got your eye on that you can't wait to make a public debut I'll tell you in in 12 months in 12 months okay all right I'm GNA set my calendar or my kitchen timer Owen thanks so much appreciate the time Owen La who is the Oppenheimer executive director and Senior analyst thanks so much thanks |
KD4OC9beItQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KD4OC9beItQ | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | US awards Intel up to $8.5 billion in CHIPS Act grants | well the US will award Intel with up to nearly $20 billion for chip manufacturing as part of the chips and Sciences act that breaks down to up to $8.5 billion in Grants and 11 billion in loans in what Commerce Secretary Gina ramondo says will be the single biggest announcement of a grant to any chips recipient now shares of the chip maker are jumping on the news year taking a look at Intel shares INTC up by about 2.4% here pre-market uh two of the highlights from this that Intel pointed out they're expecting a benefit from a US Treasury Department Investments tax credit of up to 25% on more than hundred billion in qualified Investments and elig eligibility for Federal loans of up to1 Billion there as we mentioned and then it also kind of adds on to what Intel had already announced with their plans to invest more than hundred billion over five years to expand us chip making um as we're trying to kind of decentralize it away from what had been the fabrication process largely to this point of Taiwan semiconductor uh and some of the other Global foundaries yeah this exactly goes to what Pat ginger has said here at Yahoo finance what he has also said on recent earnings calls just in terms of the direction of Intel going forward as the company does look to regain some of that momentum that it has lost here over the last several months so the significance here of course is what this is going to mean more broadly speaking to the US chip business here in the US as many of these chip makers uh rely more heavily on us production thanks to the the funding that they are getting from the chips act from the Biden Administration I think also though the question over the next couple years is how quickly this money is going to be able to be put to work and how quickly we are going to start seeing some of the benefits from these Investments because this is something that is not going to happen obviously overnight it's going to take years to come to fruition so this is all part of Intel's plan not an exact surprise that we're seeing the stock up about 2% on this news but like you said it's extremely significant almost 20 billion in total here with 8 and half billion in Grants and then up to 11 billion in loan funding here for the future and obviously the ploy here to make the US and many of its chip Giants even more competitive on that Global stage and bringing uh manufacturing back here to the US which we know has been a priority for the Biden Administration over the last several years yeah absolutely very uh varied at least in region right now you got Arizona New Mexico Ohio and Oregon we were just talking about Oregon the other day that was on a housing conversation so separately and I'll leave that to the side there well more jobs are going to be created there too |
MDzteFyyLZo | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MDzteFyyLZo | 2024-03-20 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Chevron VP talks path to energy transition and carbon capture process | I'm Julie Hyman at the Sarah week by S&P Global conference in Houston Texas as we've been talking about a big topic here is energy transition and for the energy industry a big part of that is carbon capture so our next guest is squarely within that area he's Chris Powers he's the vice president of carbon capture utilization and storage at Chevron and thank you so much for being here Chris thanks Julie I appreciate it so a lot of folks aren't necessarily uh familiar with what we call ccus which is the for what we just talked about so when we talk about carbon capture it's effectively pulling carbon dioxide either out of the air or out of the processes that make uh refined products or how you get oil and gas out of the ground um and you store it you bury it in the ground you try and capture it in a way that it then doesn't add to the atmosphere do I have that right how how exactly you've nailed it so I think about it is a couple a couple of key steps in the process simply put CO2 is produced by nearly all the operations that give us the quality of life that we have today whether it's producing power electricity whether it's producing cement steel oil and gas you emit CO2 as part of these processes and with the CCS business what we're hoping to do is capture the CO2 either before it's released into the atmosphere or as you pointed out take it out of the atmosphere through direct air capture you then compress it dehydrate it put it in a pipeline and move it to a site that has suitable storage deep underground uh then you inject it in the ground through a uh a well boo just like you do in the part of the traditional business and you'll store it a couple miles underground for geologic time now this whole Endeavor has gotten a little bit of a shot in the arm from the inflation reduction act um on the part of the Biden Administration and just also a general move towards carbon credits over the past let's call it 5 to 10 years so where is Chevron in this process and what kinds of projects are you all working on yeah we're taking a a global a global look at the uh this the CCS opportunity right so we're focused squarely though in the US the IRA has driven a lot of capital into into foundational projects in the US but also across the asia-pacific region uh so Australia is an area that's very perspective and we've have some projects that are announced there uh in the US though our main project is at bayu Bend which is in Southeast Texas uh only about 50 miles uh to the to the east of of Houston as well so what we're looking to do is to find geology that looks very suitable and amable to store the CO2 uh we then perform seismic uh analysis to identify the zones of Interest we'll then drill uh delineation Wells or we call them appraisal Wells to understand the exact Rock properties we'll then build out our Reservoir models and then you submit your permits uh to the EPA for to receive your class six permits and then that can kick off your project so I was reading a little bit about one of your projects off the coast of Australia the Gorgon project which is an a a liquefied national gas gas project where you're trying to capture some of the CO2 but it sounds like it's really in some cases challenging to do and especially challenging to do economically not just actually physically so you know and each of these projects is sort of unique right so how do you do it how do you scale it and how do you make money off it at some point down the line yeah well it's early days for all of these energy transition businesses I think that's the foundational thing to start with right so we're working on doing foundational projects that can build the foundations of a business that can grow and scale over time and you got to remember what we're really trying to do here is to enable decarbonization for many of these industries which are critical uh to everyday life so we've learned a lot at gorgon and I think it's actually made us more optimistic about ccus than it has less um each Reservoir is a bit unique and so what we've applied the learnings from Gorgon to look at areas around the globe that are going to have the most prospective geology where we can uh have the uh the most uh uh simple and predictable operations and that's what's made an area like the US Gulf Coast uh look very favorable because it has the same type of Sands that have produced oil and gas uh for the last 100 years the same type of deposits are very amable for CO2 sequestration so we've done a broad swath and canvasing of geology around the globe we've identified the areas of interest and we've secured poor space in those and are hoping to bring projects forward do we know how long the CO2 will stay captured in these areas because this is a relatively new thing that we're doing yeah so we're focused primarily on permanent sequestration some other companies are focused on enhanced oil recovery that's not been an area of focus for Chevron but with the permanent sequestration the CO2 never getting out yeah and there's a number of different on the Rock property interstitial uh levels there's a number of different physical mechanisms that cause the CO2 to stay there but ultimately you inject it you have monitoring Wells that monitor how the CO2 progresses Through The Rock strata over time and then uh you you will terminate the uh injection at some point 10 20 years down the road you continue to monitor until the CO2 plume stabilizes and then at that point that project is finished and uh and it's uh the CO2 is stored for uh for geologic time now Chris I want to ask you this what role this business plays for Chevron and I mean a lot of the other uh big companies here are doing similar businesses if not exactly the same and so I guess I'm curious as we hear more rhetoric about that we are not seeing a sunsetting of oil and gas where there's still demand for oil and gas so in that case what role do these Technologies play in your business and at some point will we see more of a a decrease in demand for oil and gas and these businesses will much be much more important important proportion of chevron's overall business a few things to unpack there Julia I appreciate the question I know there was a lot of no that's great so terms of uh I'll I'll break your question down uh peace meal we're focused on both lowering the carbon intensity of our own operations as well as building third- party facing businesses to uh help enable the harder to evate sectors like cement steel and power to decrease their emissions over time so we're tackling both of those uh pieces of of uh of of the transition in terms of uh you know the growth right it's going to take it's going to take decades the the the these these businesses are capital intensive and uh you're going to need to invest Capital nowadays to grow businesses that are going to be uh in operation for decades to come so it's going to be a slow build but we're optimistic that over time these businesses will play a bigger and bigger role in the uh energy space on the terms of the supply stack we're a firm believer that all forms of energy are going to be required there's two billion people that still want to increase their standard of living around the world they live in some level of energy poverty and you're going to need you're going to need solar you're going to need wind you're going to need nuclear but you're also going to continue to need oil and natural gas you're going to need hydrogen you're going to need CCS so if we take a a big 10 approach and support all forms of energy I think we're going to be able to deliver the affordable reliable and ever cleaner energy than the world needs and just very quickly ccus do we do you have an estimate at Chevron of when it could be profitable or is it still too early even it's very early days for these businesses the 40 uh the 45q credits through the IRA I view those as a uh as a foundational enabler to get these businesses moving and if you think about it it's not really that much different than what some of the other Industries solar and wind they also had um policy enablement to get started and then the businesses grow and scale over time cost curves come down and then the businesses can grow into a market |
rDuPMRGbJHE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDuPMRGbJHE | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | EV industry confronts charging, mainstream adoption challenges as demand slows | well we are watching shares of Herz closely this morning after news that its CEO will resign after a failed attempt into e that stock up about 1% right now this follows an announcement back in January where the car retail company said it would sell one-third of its Fleet on low demand and increasing costs all of this of course coming against the backdrop of eeve adoption rates slowing although there is still growth in Western EV makers facing increasing competition from Chinese Players let's bring in Greg migliori Autoblog and chief to discuss more Greg good to talk to you today you know there's been so much news here within the EV space that seems to point to a bit of a doom and gloom uh you know adoption rates aren't as rapid as they were and several years ago we were just talking about Fisker the other day and how they are uh pausing production um because of a cash crunch what's the overall trend point to so right now I think we're in a state of where it's like the late stage early adopters so a lot of the folks who were really interested in EVS they already have them so now you're at that point where you're somewhere in that Delta between Hey when's the mainstream general public going to really get and understand and use EVS uh and all the people who essentially were really the first ones to get it they already have them so it's that's a challenging spot to be and of course infrastructure remains a great challenge uh just the news you were talking about with shell and of course with BP that's going to help dramatically because one of the biggest challenges EV owners and users face is it's a bit of a different experience simply to power up your car uh you have to seek out the charger you have to make sure the charger might be working if it doesn't work you have to go someplace else all of that adds complexity to what is already a a technology that is a little bit different for a lot of folks H Greg what what we have learned over the course of uh the last six months even is that you got big players like a GM or a Ford that can afford to be able to pull different levers GM getting into more hybrids as a result of what they're seeing in the market and then you've got the upstarts like a Fisker like a rivan like a lucid who don't have that kind of flexibility so if we're talking about a bit of a lull until the next wave begins where does that leave those upstarts so the upstarts historically have always been in kind of a dangerous position I hate to say that but you see that where they just they don't have as much of a room uh of a margin for error Fisker is talking about partnering with Nissan we've heard some news uh in the last couple weeks that fisker's you know finances perhaps aren't where they need to be and upstarts always face those challenges rivan is a great example of revealing a couple of really interesting new products uh in the last couple of weeks uh the R2 and the R3 uh they're going to be more affordable they're amazing you know looking as as far as designs uh really I think something that could give consumers something to think about they also mentioned hey they're not going to build these at a factory in Georgia they're going to consolidate their manufacturing operations in Illinois that's good business sense but it also is a situation where uh the company is being mindful that having multiple factories having these large Footprints might be a bit too ambitious I'm pretty optimistic for a company like rivan as far as Fisker Fisker has always been great uh as far as design I remember there was a Fisker about 10 15 years ago and this is at least the second uh iteration of Fisker they appear to have less staying power but we'll see Greg does this open up or at least increase the possibility of m&a I mean you've already talked about potential for Nissan and FIS or some kind of partnership there what about rivan what about lucid well it's always a natural situation where we have these smaller compan like Lucid like rivan like Fisker that have one or two compelling products something that maybe a larger automaker Volkswagen General Motors Honda might want to get that product so I think they're always vulnerable to you know being picked off but there's also that's challenging in of itself because if you say somebody were to buy Fisker you have to deal with all the challenges that then comes with managing a smaller company that uh perhaps isn't as well integrated into your your culture as you know some like an existing just standing up an existing uh entity so there's challenges in that sense as well I think a lot of these companies are very good at developing interesting products uh vehicles that are fun to drive they look great they have the range they have the batteries but then when it comes to mass production selling them and reaching like a new market that will grow their company that's where the challenge comes in Lucid is a great example of a company that makes a very compelling product their well funded of course uh but they're also very expensive Vehicles so I I kind of doubt a company like Lucid will ever be truly mainstream Greg you know the the expectation is is this second wave of adopters are going to be a lot more price conscious you mentioned infrastructure a concern but price still very much High when you talk about these brands that um you just mentioned as they look to offer more affordable Vehicles you've got the Chinese players like a byd selling cars that are what $10,000 maybe a little less in China even if you have the tariffs you're still talking about a very aggressive price strategy does that leave a lot of these Western car makers uh particularly vulnerable when they don't have a lowcost offering right now that's always going to be tricky I don't think there's sort of an immediate um you know danger if you will of uh the US market being flooded with you know products from over overseas manufacturers uh particularly from China the US market in particular has a high cost of Entry a high barrier of entry for automakers it always has uh Americans like their cars large they like them well equipped they we have it's a highly regulated market it's not an easy thing to do I saw a byd vehicle at the Detroit Auto Show in 2008 2010 and you know they're still not here so I think that's a little bit of a um it's a business it's a product situation that in some ways has actually gotten to be political I think where you're going to see us and European automakers compete with China is in other overseas markets perhaps in India perhaps in China itself in South America and that's where it's going to be tricky to see how uh American automakers and other Western automakers could get that cost down to compete with you know a $10,000 byd um car that has great range and looks interesting uh that will be a big challenge for Western automakers okay we'll be watching that head-to-head play out Greg migori Auto blog editor and chief good to talk to you today I appreciate the time thank you |
2_jEhLRvIfY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_jEhLRvIfY | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | What the NAR settlement means for buyers, sellers, realtors, and builders | well $418 million settlement by the National Association of Realtors is expected to usher in sweeping reforms to the real estate market the settlement came after a federal judge rule that an existing rule requiring compensation to a buyer's agent artificially inflated housing fees to discuss the implications for buyers and sellers that's R Bill py he's py Capital CEO and Jeff Taylor emphasis Digital Risk founder and Mortgage Bankers Association and gentlemen good to have both of you on today um Jeff uh Bill let me start with you first uh by talking about just sort of put this in context for us and when we keep hearing these sweeping reforms likely to happen this is a significant shift within the real estate market um put it in context for us well the reality is the home is made up of obviously Lumber and drywall and Roofing and all kinds of materials and stuff a big part of it too is fees taxes Title Insurance mortgage insurance uh to the extent that one has all of those things and then another thing is the realtor fees now what's so interesting about this Landmark thing is that now basically the 6% in my opinion is really up for grabs and you're going to see people become very creative you're going to see companies become very creative as a way towards being more competitive and I think in an inflationary environment uh all creativeness in my opinion is welcome and I think that this is potentially very good for consumers what kind of creativity are we talking about Bill I think you know you could could see potentially people reduce their commissions you could also see I think some creative thinking like the builders have done where they've gone in as you just mentioned or your colleague just mentioned the builders have gone in and bought down mortgage rates uh as a means of making their homes meaning new homes more attractive for home buyers I think you could also see where you have potentially realators being incentivized by some of the big Builders I think it's a very you know obviously this is kind of a bias statement from my perspective but it's a very bullish time I think because the big builders are taking market share from smaller Builders all across the country Jeff to what extent do you think this opens up the market I mean I will I will admit that I do follow quite a lot of real estate agents online so many of them already taken to social media to say look we will meet you where you want to be especially for sellers who are concerned that the cost may come down on their end or come up on their end yeah a founder of Digital Risk what we do is we help lenders make sure that they're providing quality mortgage loans as an MBA board member also very responsible for making sure the housing market functions correctly and this has the potential to be as I saying a little bit of a game changer there's always been this perception that it's 3% and 3% 6% or 5% depending upon where you are and now as you present that that contract look theoretically the seller could the seller agent could say hey we're going to charge 3% but we're not going to provide anything for the the buyers the the buyer on that 3% how's that going to affect that behavior that could change a lot going forward I think in a lot of other Industries as far as commissions have always been negotiable in housing in in real estate commissions they've been negotiable too but I would tell you of all if I look at money management and other Industries this has been sort of the hate at 6% coming out of the gates that we've had for many years so I think to the point of getting more creative trying to say hey how much am I really going to have to pay in commissions I think that dialogue is going to be happening a lot more at the signing of a listing agency right signing the listing right now than it has historic and once that conversation opens up it's no longer this is just the way that it's been for 40 years and here's the way we're entering our transaction you're going to see a lot of other potential ways for people trying to get that overall feed down on both sides I would imagine uh Jeff to to what extent do you think that reduces the rate on the seller side I mean it's been at 6% as you said the argument has always been this is just the way it is how does that come down moving forward so look if I'm if I'm the seller right now and I'm I'm I'm trying to get a list and I just said okay it's 6% and it says okay but I'm plotting my listing agent and I say wait do I have to pay 6% as a seller I see I'm reading documents it's 3% do I have to offer the other 3% why don't I offer 3% and why don't my seller and my buyer split that 3% those are going to be a lot of the discussions are going to happen more now because it's different okay and also if I'm a buyer if I'm a buyer's agent right now I'm if I go to MLS I'm not going to see the my my 3% there's other ways to figure out other websites to go to see what the seller will be offering as far as a commission to that buyer's agent but it changes the landscape right it gets people to be more creative they have to check different places and as consumers become educated on this the question's coming in on why does it have to be 6% that starts to really ramp up that conversation and it's going to be especially that's going to change the industry I think quite a bit now if you're in the market right now it's important to know this is expected to go in in July of this year so I would you know it's going to be business as usual between now and July of this year but if it does go into effect it's going to be a lot more discussions kind of going forward uh Bill let's talk about the data that we got out this morning you know Danny just laying it out for us saying that there's certainly a lot more optimism here for the spring selling season when you look at the data that came through on housing starts for February what are you seeing we're seeing that things are really kind of holding steady like you said in some markets in some markets it's really hot I think you're going to have a strong spring selling season I think it might not be as good as it was when mortgage rates were way lower and things were kind of gang busters but I think that you're going to see a very strong spring selling season I'll just mention one thing I think that your colleague was absolutely right it depends on which Market you're in uh if you're in some of these markets where there's a lot of supply and stuff you're not going to see the type of home price appreciation or kind of as strong of a spring selling season on the other hand if you're in Florida or if you're in some of these geographies that are doing very well I think you're going to see a very compet competitive spring selling season and I wouldn't be surprised to see uh people try to take market share and the big Builders frankly will probably do pretty well uh coming up into this spring selling season uh finally Jeff when you look at where the market has been um yes rates have been elevated yes inventory has still been very much limited and what you're seeing increasingly are those who are in the market are those who are existing homeowners when you think about where the conditions are today where they're likely to move in the next several months where does that leave firsttime home buyers have had who have had such a hard time getting in I think we Le the first-time home buyers is actually I think it's starting to be slightly better and what I mean by that is last year we had and right now we have about 1.66 New Homes and Apartments being built currently under construction guys if you think back a decade ago we lost around six million units coming to market for various different reasons so I think and again depending where you are I happen to be here in Florida where things are incredibly tight there is more inventory coming to the market you look at py you look at lenar the big home builders are really putting a lot into the market so um at a 7% interest rate right now that's still you know probably higher than historically has been but if you look at NBA and what they're projecting they're saying it's going to get down to around 6.6% hopefully over the course of the next three to three to four months that should help affordability a little bit coupled with 1.66 million houses under under construction if somebody wants to sell their existing house and that end goal is to get into new house that's a better point in time to do this now than it has been for the previous five years so I think overall the housing Market's incredibly strong um I don't I think price appreciation will stay sort of flat to rising over the course of the next year and if everybody is right and we do see some Fed rate cuts on the second half of this year um you could see even a a stronger spring slf uh home buying season Bill py py Capital CEO and Jeff Taylor emphasis Digital Risk founder and Mortgage Bankers Association board member it's good to have both of you on today I really appreciate the perspective |
-c3mN_T_pwQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-c3mN_T_pwQ | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia Automotive VP discusses supercomputing and creating an AI brain in the car | we're here with Nvidia VP of Automotive Danny SPO Danny thank you so much for joining us here at GTC 2024 kind of a huge event this particular one first time in 5 years that that you guys are live but also because of all of the the AI hype going around I guess you know just to get things started has the the AI height that we've seen around Nvidia trickled into the the different businesses how how has it impacted the automotive side of things absolutely we're seeing the amazing development going on throughout all aspects of the Auto industry one of the things we're focused on is AI supercomputing in the car so creating an AI brain for automated and autonomous driving so we just announced um a new platform called Blackwell at the keynote yesterday um this is going to really help in the form of generative AI the kinds of things that chat GPT is doing being able to take data streams in and other data stream being generated whether it's text to text or text to image text to video or video to text I mean so it doesn't really matter what it is and so we're seeing that kind of Technology helping transform what will go inside Vehicles whether it's cars or trucks or Robo taxis being able to have a natural conversation with your vehicle but also it's really helping the development of autonomous vehicles as well so in generative AI can be used to assist simulation for testing and validating autonomous vehicles so it's not just you know uh chat GPT or uh Sora which is the the uh video uh gen AI capability open AI has it's something that's going to actually I guess manifest some physical way yeah so imagine a an automated car and there's cameras on it that are understanding the environment well what we can do is generative AI can take that video feed and understand it communicate it to you in real time and alert you to the fact that maybe somebody is jaywalking or there's you know a baby stroller being pushed across the street here or a motorcycle that's coming in your blind spot so the cameras won't just be you know create a beep but actually could tell you what's going on so I guess how far away is is that you know we're still I mean Chachi was what 2022 so it seems still pretty early right how how far away is is that and how how long has Nvidia been thinking about that kind of technology in the car so we've been focused on inic experiences for more than a decade and we really pioneered bringing kind of consumer electronics experience into the cockpit touchscreens uh digital instrument clusters rear seat entertainment and the last several years now we've been bringing artificial intelligence to that as well so having a concierge that you could interact with uh convenient and safety features all built around AI so being able to understand what's going on outside as well as inside who's in the vehicle what's their agenda where are they going what do they want to do and merging all of that together so what's nice now is that these large language models are really enabling new experiences and instead of having to learn specific commands for your car you could speak to your car in natural language so I guess this is something that that is now kind of coming to fruition and you know during the uh the keynote Jensen had mentioned a number of New Deals uh with automakers I guess can you just give us a a sense of what those mean some of them are bys as well as a few others and and where do you see those kinds of deals going so byd is really exciting they are the world's largest e maker and so they're going to be using Drive Thor so that's our new AI supercomputer for the carts Automotive grade meaning it's designed to work at all temperatures unlike your phone which won't work in the cold or the heat uh our Drive computer will work under all conditions and so that becomes the AI brain for their future fleets of cars but byd is also using Nvidia AI for training the self-driving how do you teach the self-driving car so their data centers have Nvidia inside they're using Nvidia for simulation for uh their factories to be able to plan the factories using Nidia Omniverse so that's our digital twin technology uh Nvidia Isaac Sim so this is robotic stack as well so how are these robots going to build the cars while they're using Nvidia artificial intelligence as well in the factory and even retail so we can use Omniverse which again is the digital twin technology we take a model of the car that the designers us and with generative AI we can put that model anywhere we can Envision it on the highway on a country road by the beach in your drive way so the retail experience and dynamic car configurators will be something that will transform going to the dealership or just buying a car online or on your mobile device and just one last question where do you see this kind of Technology going for NVIDIA in the year ahead two years from now yeah the explosive growth of AI is quite astounding um but we're just getting started that's the exciting thing these vehicles that we're making it's not like it's a fixed vehicle and just ships but it's a living entity now there's a super computer on board and we can update the software on the car so it can get better and better over time so when you buy the car it'll be at its most basic level the day that you drive it home and it will just get better with new software updates over time so we'll be able to add new features new capabilities new autonomous driving modes and it you know it'll just be a really joy every time you get an update there's something new a new app essentially for the vehicle |
hcZV5Lb6P-0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcZV5Lb6P-0 | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why investors should focus on earnings, not Nvidia or the Fed | now that the Nvidia event is behind us the Market's focus is on the FED decision tomorrow and despite concerns about rates staying higher for longer stocks posted gains on the day with the S&P 500 closing at a new all-time high but our next guest says investors shouldn't be focused on AI or the fed the next true catalyst's earning season which just a few weeks away here joining us now is Michael Antonelli bear managing director and Market strateg Michael I I do have to start on the markets though listen Mike we we end today the Dow tax on another three 00 points here the SPX notches a record close things things seem pretty good where do you see the market headed here and the near kind of near to intermediate term I love that I got to follow my friend miles that's he's he's he's one of my guys so I looked at my board up here the number of times I've been on Yahoo finance and I've been at new alltime highs three times so I'm counting myself as part of like the good good uh membership of yaho Finance I listen I think the market is what it is and we're overthinking this whole thing we're totally overthinking this whole thing let's put the Dot Plot aside for a second let's put Nvidia and Rockstar status aside for second earnings are at their highest level in history earnings expectations 12 month forward are at 249 we are at alltime highs why because earnings keep going up earnings estimates keep going up can that change obviously it can change for sure it can change but we have a consumer with a solid balance sheet we have earnings estimates going up we have this AI theme things are good we're overthinking this let's just focus on the fact that earnings season is the next Catalyst not the Dot Plot I think it's not the Dot Plot even though I agree with miles it's probably like two or three okay Michael I'm going to push back a little though because we do have inflation that is pretty high and there have been stickier areas of inflation like shelter for example and really the housing issue seems to be an impossible scenario to navigate in some ways how do you think the FED should approach those areas that just don't seem to be coming down and that's it right we can we we look at CPI over the past six months it's annualizing about 3% but if you were to take out shelter it's 1.8 I I know that's kind of lazy to say take out something that actually everybody consumes so I'm not going to play that role okay yes shelter is high it's high for basically structural reasons we don't have enough homes and the places that need uh need more apartments are slow to get new apartments so we're in this kind of structural problem that the FED can't solve the government can't really solve it we're in this demographic patch where Millennials all of you guys are buying so many homes we don't have enough of them um so we're in these kind of structural situations that the fed's going to have to like just acknowledge and say shelter's not coming down as fast as we thought and there's really not that much we can do about it other than slamming the braks on the economy but again how many people have a 3% mortgage out there so so many so so many so you can't make those people move it's kind of an intractable problem here no listen I I get you Michael if I was locked in at 3% I was I'd never be moving uh let me ask you what bottom line do you expect to hear from the FED tomorrow and when do you think Michael uh they start easing they're gonna have to push it out but they can't push out too far right they can't push out these do they can't push out the cuts towards the election then you're going to just start to drum up all sorts of like unnecessary concerns about cutting around an election so if they're going to they're going to guide they're going to have to guide sometime a couple months before that election season really starts to ramp up you know we we keep we keep asking the FED to cut and they keep saying we're watching and then the CPI comes out hot and then they say we're watching we're just keep doing this cycle uh will they cut won't they cut does the market care I mean if if CPI is coming in hot and they keep pushing out Cuts why are we at alltime Hots is the market just not see this uh clearly it does I think again we're we're overlooking the simple answer here which is that the econom is fine the consumer fine and earnings are rising the FED is important yes but we're putting way too much important on dot plots and we need to start thinking about the stuff that's actually matters to the market right now and that's um the thing I've mentioned about six times so far so then so then to that point do you think there's any difference between two cuts versus three Cuts or or even if we don't see any Cuts this year I think the market would be fine with no Cuts I really do I I don't I don't think the market needs cuts to go higher will that help yes maybe if they if they say we're cutting soon certainly I think the market will be up pretty big uh over the next few days I don't think it this I don't know if this is a hot take but I don't think the market needs cuts to keep going higher as long as earnings and the consumers stay fine your previous guests were a little bearish for my taste talking about hard Landing I don't know what that's all about um but but I think we're in the no Landing category there's just there's no Landing we're just we're off we're just going um but I don't I don't think the FED I don't think we need a rate cut for the market to go higher I'm I'm gonna sake that claim right now Michael at your point yeah I I don't I don't remember last time I had a hard Landing guest on the show at least it was kind of refreshing it was kind it was something new so Michael as you look across the equity market right now and just given the backdrop you kind of laid out what sectors look attractive to you Michael what what would you find where do you see opportunity and by the way what also would you avoid I certainly like I don't like Tech is Tech is what it is every we talk about tech non-stop I think the Industrials and the consumer discretionary space to me are the most interesting I think there's a lot of interesting uh well-run companies in there in the consumer space I do think housing is still a great look at ITB ITB the housing ETF today it's near its all-time highs some of the home builders back close to all-time highs if the market was worried about rids or if the market was worried about inflation why are these home builders still continuing to do well there's a lot of industrial companies a lot of financials I think that are doing well we don't always have to talk about Fin I'm sorry Tech or or or Nvidia that certainly that gets a lot of oxygen in the room but um I would probably stay away from some of the like consumer staple some of the defensive names I just don't think it's the right time to take up the defense I think it's okay to continue to play what's working and right now Industrials financials uh even Tech they're all doing really very very well and honestly let me just throw out the stat by the way the Market's up 8% through for the first 50 days if it's been at least up 5% through the first 50 days it's been positive 24 of 25 times the only outlier is 1987 and that always shows up on all his stuff 87 always shows up but uh being up this much into the year is actually historically a really good sign what about the energy sector Michael that was a top performing sector today we've seen Commodities really ripping across the board are you bullish on energ in the long term I mean I'm the kind of guy that thinks a bet on Commodities is a bet against human Innovation so you might have the wrong guest on betting on Commodities I just I'd rather bet on new products and Innovation uh and certainly energy sector has done well we do have a kind of a perky crude oil up up back above 80 uh I mean energy does have a place I think in a portfolio especially if you're looking to diversify so I'm not going to say that I completely would avoid it uh that's not the case uh but I do think a big bet on energy is a bet against human Innovation and that's just not my brand that's not my style really so um I still like the financials and discretionary and Industrials better |
SMTyInMqahk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMTyInMqahk | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | March Fed FOMC meeting and what it means for interest rates, investors, and investors | [Music] with just over 10 minutes left until the closing bell on Wall Street we're looking at how to navigate the big picture with the Yahoo finance Playbook today we're taking a closer look at how the FED could impact your portfolio what's driving the broader Market rally yes we're highlighting expectations for the fed's March meeting and what that means for your investment decisions now and looking ahead joining us now is FM Investments president and chief investment officer Alex Morris and macro Institute chief investment strategist Brian Nick thank you both for joining us and Brian I want to start with you obviously all eyes on the Federal Reserve and their interest rate decision tomorrow but I do think the biggest focus is going to be on that Dot Plot so what are your expectations for that so this might be a weird fed meeting and that the markets in the FED are relatively aligned coming into it which has not usually been the case the Market's been looking for the FED to make pivots here and there in the last couple of meetings I think this one the market and the FED are both expecting kind of the same thing as the last time we've heard from them and the FED speak since the January meeting doesn't indicate we're going to be getting a much different message on inflation or on the unemployment Outlook so my base case is that we're going to see continue to see expectations baked in in the FED Dot Plot for three rate Cuts this year that's about what the Market's expecting to which means potentially not that many fireworks after the announcement tomorrow all right Alex I want I want to bring you in here as well what's your take Alex tomorrow what what are you expecting the FED to to do and and say tomorrow Alex you expecting the same thing not not a lot of fireworks yeah I'm hoping for no fireworks I guess Ro is kind of hoping for that but I agree I think we're going to see rat de heady held steady we're going to see The Dot Plot look pretty much the same I wouldn't be surprised though if there were some outliers who pushed us to two cuts or you know someone who might even be looking at one which I think might spook the market a little bit but I think the odds of that are low and any response would be relatively muted Alex just a quick follow up on there does it matter to you Alex when exactly they start cutting I think it matters less to me than it does to them and that there be a reg program and that's because what's about to happen in November the FED although it is by Design outside of the political system it is still highly politically aare and it wants to have a program I'd argue where it doesn't look like rates are being cut or halted Cuts or halted as a result of the election or who might be leading the election at that point so I think from them they want to have a clear message as Brian said aligned with the markets and a consistent narrative so when Cuts come it doesn't look like it's designed to favor anyone politician party or policy so Brian we just heard Alex bring up the election conversation obviously it seems like there's still somewhat uncertainty when it comes to when we could get these Cuts how many we could expect how are you advising your clients when it comes to positioning their portfolio amid this fed uncertainty so this looks like it's going to be the second longest Plateau for the FED funds r that we've ever seen the longest one was 15 months between the last Fed rate hike and the First Fed rate cut um that actually came in 2006 2007 I think there say the FED probably wishes it would have cut a little bit sooner at that point so because this is so unusually long what we're looking for really is any signs of a break in the economy as the economy sort of going to wilt under the pressure of higher interest rates now we don't know exactly where the neutral rate is that's one potentially source of surprise that we could see tomorrow in the dotplot of a few FC members raised their estimate of where neutral is that's effectively changing policy without without actually changing rates but I think the concern that we have is that we're going to start to see further weakness in the labor market Data before we get down to 2% on which seems like it's sort of the bogey for a lot of these fomc members and that means the fed's going to have to really choose between do we have to wait for inflation to get all the way down to 2% or do we try to Forstall what looks like a coming weakness in the labor markets and in the broader economy and so does that that mean Brian I'm just interested your outlook for the economy then are you are you in a soft Landing Camp still or no no we've never been in a soft Landing Camp we're in a hard Landing Camp hard and this yeah know know we're becoming an endangered species but um but but the weakness that we're seeing in some of the survey data is relates to small businesses poor sales we hiring these are the things that tend to lead by about 3 to 6 months actual changes in the hard data so we're waiting for that you know to hit around the time when the FED is expected to start cutting rates it may have to start cutting sooner or faster than it wants to all right Alex how about you I have to get your opinion are your are you in the hard Landing Camp the no Landing soft Landing you know what I've been in the soft Landing cap I'm still there but I'd point out we've done a pretty good job of poorly defining what is hard soft or no uh I think where I agree is that there there could be a risk of cuts coming at a different rate than the Fed expects because let's face it for a long time it's done something it's not used to doing it's had a campaign against employment in an effort to bring it down and we're starting to see that we saw it happen late last year we're seeing little bits and bots of it now but I think the FED is also thinking about something else commodity prices are starting to tick up and that usually leads towards inflation in and of itself so I I would suspect right now most folks sitting at the the governor's table or wondering okay we kind of know what to do from here if all goes to plan but what are the things that might happen outside of the plan and what if that is inflation from commodities prices that start to trickle up and that also makes employment worse how do we deal with the need to cut and Rise all at the same time and I I suspect that's where we're going to start to hear more fed speak in the back end of this quarter and certainly a lot of that in Q2 and Brian back to you so so given kind of the backdrop Brian kind of your outlook for the FED for the economy in the equity Market where do you want to be positioned Brian what what sectors look attractive to you so this is the state of the cycle where you typically see a risk-off rally so it's possible the stock market can keep keep going up but it's going to be led by more defensive areas of the market again we can go back to the last two major Cycles it's exactly what happened in 2 2007 the tech rally and the financials rally relinquished to utilities Consumer Staples as we got the last gasp of the overall S&P 500 rally and once that tapped out it was around the time when the Fed was cutting interest rates because employment was getting worse so we're looking for again Ultra defensive sectors of the market that are correlated with interest rates so when interest rates are falling they're going to tend to out perform we're looking for utilities Consumer Staples certain parts of the healthcare sector you're kind of your classic defensive counter cyclical parts and Alex if we are in this higher for longer period what do you think of interest rate sensitive areas of the market like small caps do you believe they're undervalued and now is a time to to buy in so I think small caps have been undervalued for a long time and it's a good time to buy them I don't know if the interest rate change is going to be the immediate trigger for them I think that's going to be a driven rally it needs to get enough buyers back into the market to push them up because arguably we can look at the Fab 4 right Leed to be mag seven but now really just four they're still making new highs that's not because efficiency is improving or free cash flows growing at Great rates it's rather just supply and demand and we need to see a bigger impetus for that to move out of those biggest Mega cap large cap names and and work its way down interest rates may be part of that but I think it's going to be largely sentiment driven once you see volume going to those funds those ET those smas you're going to see the rest of the volume follow pretty quickly and Brian got your outlook for kind of the equity market for fixed income investors who we're listening right now any advice guidance you'd give them spread compression has been extremely aggressive we tend to think of this as a leading indicator but it feels like that the credit Market's already leading us past the downturn to the next recovery um we're pretty cautious we like long duration high quality we've been talking about buying long treasuries since last year when rates were kind of at their top um those were going to tend to be one of the only things that work in a portfolio of Diversified asset classes when things get really tough and then Alex when we've been talking about this broadening of the market right now especially when we talk about tech sort of pulling back where do you see that market broadening to and and do you think there are other opportunities out there besides just the Magnificent Seven yeah I think there are a lot of great opportunities um I agree with Brian first of all if you if you want to be out of the equity Market something like U10 utw u30 get really targeted treasury exposure on the long end of the Curve within the equity markets I like energy as a sector it's trading at about twice the buyback rate and twice the dividend rate of the broad S&P 500 you can do that through a name like diamond back energy Fang which is more of the high beta side Upstream producer has a you lot of capability and efficiency or if you want a more low beta version of that something like NPC and marathon where you know you're going to get a little more versify a little more muted exposure a little more of a value play and I think that sector also ties into if Energy prices continue to go up which looks to be set or other commodity prices go up they have two ways to benefit from that as well as being a hedge against some of the tech names starting to fall all right Brian Alex thank you guys both for joining us today appreciate it |
RBeMEGhNzhY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBeMEGhNzhY | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Analyst reacts to Nvidia's 2024 GTC conference, details risks | but but for all the positivity on the street Nvidia stock is up very slightly shares were down nearly 4% earlier in today's session so here to make sense of the moves let's bring in Patrick Morehead more insights and strategy CEO and chief analyst who's at the conference right now in San Jose Patrick thanks so much for joining us I first want to ask about this price action why do you think we're not seeing those levels rise is it a bit of investor confusion did we see some sell the news events walk us through your thesis there yeah I think investors uh would have expected to see a knockout blow and what I think Nvidia brought to the surface was very compelling particularly they embracing and extend extending on the platform but there's just a lot more analysis need to go on for instance uh this new chip this new platform comes out the end of the year it it's being compared to a product that AMD is that's actually Shi now so I think what people are trying to wrap their heads around is what can we expect from AMD uh what can we expect from Intel and and how does this uh line up I think they're also comparing the recent uh runup uh that quite frankly is in the the stratosphere and I think what's already baked in is businesses that Nvidia might not already Command and Conquer like the CPU market so I think think there's analysis going on and Patrick one one piece of analysis I want to get your take on is is just talk about price here for a second because maybe a bit of confusion here Patrick so chips in the in the hopper line you know they go for somewhere between 30,000 and 40,000 Patrick and it seemed like Co Jensen Wong on another Network today was suggesting okay Blackwell chips are going to be maybe in in a similar range but then apparently clarified that comment Patrick said prices are are going to vary any more color insight can tell us about about price here Patrick and what that would mean for margins looking Ahad yeah so this new chip is actually two chips uh stitch together in a in a very good way and the size of the chip will be larger hence their cost will be more I do believe the new line will be more expensive than the previous line but what the company's going to do is they're going to keep both of these chips out there at the same time right if you need essentially it's a a good better best uh strategy with with the best being Blackwell and the better uh being Hopper so both of them will be in the market I can't imagine Blackwell not being uh more costly because it could be up to 2x the costs the cost and Patrick based on what you've been hearing so far you mentioned some of those Rivals do you think this fundamentally changes in video 's position so Nvidia has close to 100% of the training and I would say 90 95% of the inference for these latest models um I can't imagine them maintaining that market share but the market is growing so much this Market could be two three times the size of the current market in in two years so Nidia can continue to have a let's call it a 90% market share uh position right down from 98% uh that still gives AMD and Intel and and Nvidia all Room to Grow I it was interesting Patrick when we kind of listening to Jensen Wong yesterday on his keynote I think he was you know clearly trying to emphasize this point that you know we're not just a chip company we're you know we're software we're we're networking we're an ecosystem you know that that was kind of the theme the storyline how important is that for investors I think it's incredibly important right I like to say there's companies that show up with a bag of parts and there's those that show up with a platform or a solution and essentially what um Nvidia is doing is you're right they have the core accelerator they have the networking that not only pulls the chips together on a single card but also connects those cards together and then they have the networking that connects the racks together and you layer on top of that the drivers uh the containers the platform services that put them in a position where let's say somebody does come out and has a better chip Nvidia is still competitive on a platform very similar to Apple who hasn't had the best devices for a while but they they do so well uh because their platform play is so strong and their experience is so strong Patrick what about potential supply issues do you think Nvidia can produce enough chips to meet this demand so a little bit of a tricky uh question uh I I think there is fear amongst their customers I mean they love what Nvidia is doing in terms of Market making but they do fear being connected uh to to one company for supply chain risk and that a competitive supply chain you have you have to have three players so I I I think that with AMD and Nvidia leveraging uh the same uh wayf for manufacturer and that's that's tsmp and even for packaging uh there's similar risk between two companies Intel is interesting in that they cannot they they they could make Nidia Wafers and do the packaging I do believe there's a deal at hand so uh it's a maybe uh part of it is the growth but also uh the outside world the customer bases uh feeling about being locked into one supplier Patrick I'm gonna get you out of here on this I'm interest to get your take on what the long-term risks are for NVIDIA Patrick and and you know I don't mean just over you know the next six months or 12 months but over the next few years Patrick what would you argue the big risks are you know is it is it competition is it demand holding up from those big Tech customers is it just technology evolving in some way that proves a a challenge what would you list I would say the biggest risk is researchers now not finding not figuring out the next big thing that requires bigger and faster chips from from Nvidia uh the second risk would be competitive risk based on a customer desire to not be beholden to to to to one company um you know there are some ancillary risks in in that uh the top uh three four hyperscalers out there uh uh uh Google uh meta AWS and Microsoft are all working all their on their own ships and and with the workload moving from training to inference that could be a risk so yeah that there are risks for sure Patrick it is always great to have you on the show my friend thanks so much for joining us today thanks |
sZyyKt6b2eY | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZyyKt6b2eY | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street sees more upside in Nvidia stock after GTC event | time now for our call of the day and Wall Street has some positive vibes for NVIDIA as it continues its second day of the GTC conference CEO Jensen Wong revealed the company's newest and most powerful Chip saying it will cost between $30 to $40,000 management has hinted that there's more products in the pipeline for 20124 and Josh all that hype has translated to a lot of these Banks Wall Street firms raising their price targets across the board we have Goldman Sachs Wells Fargo Morgan Stanley JP Morgan all upping those pts on the stock Bernstein even quoted the one and only Taylor Swift or at least referenced Taylor Swift writing quote move over Taylor you're not the only one that can sell out a stadium and a lot of these analysts know it's just parsing through them they really focused on the roll out of Blackwell and how this chip is ultimately unmatched the competitive angle is another one I noticed there's just no competitor currently on the market that can even see to match nvidia's Cadence and obviously the AI hype that we've been hearing about over and over again just a continued story here yeah I mean you know this stock has been such a monster I mean interesting kind of we were talking off camera about kind of the price action it was in the red now reversing course now it's kind of back to the Flatline competing headlines maybe having some play there but of course also you know pull back the chart you know up about 80% already this year Wall Street loves this name I mean they continue to nearly 90% of analysts think you should buy Invidia even at these levels I mean you you rarely see that kind of optimism alley on the street um I I think one kind of theme in the notes was what Jensen Wong was staying on stage he was kind of pounding home this theme that listen we are a chip giant but we're a lot more than that he was kind of focusing on the software and networking making this argument I think that listen we are we are a platform right and and and Bulls love that and you saw that through the notes today some analyst saying listen they looked at ecosystem and they they argued it just unmatched and this point and kind of hard to stand against you saw you mentioned bernsteen Daisy rasgon that's what he was talking about when he R rated that outperform rating his Target still a thousand yeah ecosystem really a big Focus here chips software networking that that's all increasingly important to investors so I think it's just a continued story that we'll have to be watching |
hJAC_DZG8fI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJAC_DZG8fI | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | There are some very attractive stocks right now, strategist says | with markets while expecting the FED to keep rates higher the focus is on the Dot Plot for more on how this could shake up the markets and the best way to be positioned amid a patient fed let's welcome in Brad Newman Al director of Market strategy Brad it's always good to see you thanks for having me so tomorrow Brad what what's going to be your focus you know is it the Dot Plot the balance sheet J pow's rhetoric what what are you expecting well I think most people are going to be focused on the projections that the FED has going forward uh you know whether it's three Cuts this year or two cuts there's certainly a risk that it becomes two cuts and also whether um the the rates projections are higher in the future so I think there's a decent chance that the longer run projection of interest rates may move higher because I think it seems clear that um what we thought was neutral probably has to be a little bit higher to put more of a dent in the economy because the econom has been so resilient so let's say we do get those projections in and we only have one or two cuts forecasted for the rest of this year how do you think markets are going to react to that because we've largely seen markets pretty consistent in pricing in three rate Cuts I I don't think there's going to be a dramatic move one cut would be um a big a bigger surprise and and that would I think uh be negative but you know the market has Shrugged off since uh late last year they were expecting um nearly seven cuts and now we're down to two to three so the markets digested that quite well buffeted by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence so um I'm not expecting a huge reaction to something where it just tilts into two Cuts instead of three BR does the FED need to cut for the market to move higher that was a storyline a narrative you think that's still the case I think ultimately um rates coming down is helpful I mean longer term uh I think earnings can grow even if uh rates stay um you know broadly where they are and I think the market could probably move higher but certainly rates coming down is what's expected and I think uh what's needed for the next leg and kind of the short and uh intermediate term and I think as rates move down that's going to cause a change in Market uh internals and Dynamics within the equity Market Brad there has been a lot of talk when it comes to a no Landing versus soft Landing scenario considering where we're at with interest rates where we're at with inflation which Camp are you ultimately in right now uh I I think that the economy a weaken a little bit from here but um you know recession seems like it's off the table now uh you know you see saw housing starts being reported the housing market um seems to have bottomed and uh has been coming back and um manufacturing even maybe coming back to some extent and and that leaves uh the consumer and the consumer's proven awfully resilient there seems about to be this kind of growing course that maybe were doe here for a pullback called five to 10% if you saw that Brad would you be a buyer on that weakness well I think there are some very attractive parts of the stock market right now particularly um the stocks that have gotten beaten up by Rising interest rates so you know we've seen a very high negative correlation with small cap stocks small cap growth in particular and interest rates been like a negative 85% correlation over the past few years and they've gotten extremely cheap um they used to trade it historically kind of like a 10% premium to the broad market today small cap growth stocks are trading at like a 20% discount on a price to earnings basis so um that area of the stock market seems to present some attractive opportunities in my view so bullish on small caps and we have seen this pullback more broadly in the M magnificent 7 what other areas of the market do you think there are opportunities when we look down the line and where the FED could potentially move well you know when I was on the program uh in early 2023 we talked about uh Ai and the infrastructure AI plays there like Hardware Nvidia um and software Microsoft then uh when I was on late last year kind of broaden that out because there was a lot of enthusiasm for AI and we talked about kind of tertiary AI plays like power um and those kinds of things and now we still like AI uh certainly for the long term but the sentiment um is fairly robust there and so I'd be looking at some other themes um some like what Brad what would be on your radar yeah like alternative asset managers so here I'm talking about the public equities of companies that invest in private equity and uh the case for these stocks is that um institutions like pensions and endowments have like a 20 to 30% of their uh allocation into privates but the mass affluent um in this country have about a 3% allocation in fact just recently uh this week Calpers announced they were going to 40% uh private markets allocation but anyway every move from that 3% up like if they uh went from 3 to 4% for uh in within the retail Market that would be like a 15% growth in AUM for this market so I think there's a big growth potential for the likes of Hamilton Lane and stepping stone stepstone um they've made some really good Innovations they've allowed uh the private Market to get they've allowed retail to get into the private Market with much lower minimums than we typically see like $50,000 type minimums and also having monthly liquidity so I think those Innovations may open up the retail Market to private equity and that could be a boon for those types of stocks what about you know besides AI that one of the I mean certainly one of the hottest Trends investors are focused on Pharma um I'm I'm just interested any any kind of examples there I think they were small maybe and large cap names Brad you were interested in well of course uh uh we think gop1 is going to extend um its indications uh for use for for different uh um potential disease States and so uh you know we own uh Eli Lily and um abroad uh Novo Nordisk uh so so still think that's an interesting play longer term yeah when we think about risks to the market longer term obviously outside of inflation and what the FED does with interest rates we have the election cycle coming up do you expect that we'll see any more volatility as we head closer into November yeah historically the market uh gets nervous uh leading up to the election and then begins to do well uh post the election uh so um I could Envision some turbulent particularly as more gets to be known about potential policies but you know what we've published in in the data that we've seen historically is that what the market envisions as being the beneficiaries from different um uh policy moves don't really come to fruition so for instance um when Trump was elected back in 2016 um a lot of people thought that um the lowering of uh corporate tax rate would benefit kind of domestically oriented companies and they did well for a little while But ultimately kind of over the one and two years post the election they actually uh lagged and um you know what we did see well was uh Innovative companies types of companies that aler invest in uh similarly uh after Biden was elected people thought that solar would do really well obviously he ran on kind of an environmental uh forward uh type policy and those stocks initially were very strong out of the gate and then U began to underperform and didn't really have uh a lot in the tank over the uh you know medium term there so again Innovative stocks outperform so you know at aler we set our Focus really on Innovation and who's uh going to win from that Innovation within Industries rather than betting on policy changes all right makes sense Brad thanks as always for joining us appreciate it thanks for having me |
in46Q6-X1DI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=in46Q6-X1DI | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia’s software push shows it’s no longer just a chip company: Analyst | well big news out of nvidia's GTC conference in San Jose CEO Jensen hang unveiling the company's Next Generation Blackwell AI chip as well as new Partnerships with software Giants and news it is bringing its Omniverse Enterprise technology to Apple's Vision Pro headset joining us now on all this news someone who attended the keynote there you go you got that selfie Ray Ray Wong is constellation research founder and principal analyst always got to get that selfie R um you know look this is a stock we're talking about Nvidia that is up about 75% year to date seeing it down today about 2% is that just a matter of a little profit taking on the back or sell the news situation now Kiko you're definitely right they are taking some profit taking uh some money off the table I think a lot of the news was being hyped up all the way into the conference and I think that's where the stock price was there but I think we learned a lot of things at the conference and I think the most important piece is that Nvidia is no longer just a chip company if you look at all their extensions they're focused on the next layer which is really that getting that chip extended out into the ecosystem and then of course focusing on software which is really important for them going forward yeah we'll talk about that software part in just a minute but this is a stock that still largely trades on that potential or not even potential just the demand coming through from their gpus the Blackwell chip here a b200 yesterday that was unveiled um largely expected but give me your first impression here about how this elevates nvidia's offering and really what this means for AI overall well they did three things that were very important one they had backward compatibility which means if you have your old h100 chip you can swap it out onto Blackwell the second thing they did was they built a Lego type architecture that says you can tie all these gpus together and so it's almost like you know we can turn like 10 gpus into one big giant GPU you can take a thousand gpus turn it into one big giant GPU and pull those resources and then I think the third thing we learned is this Blackwell platform actually achieves what we call Jensen's law not Moore's Law anymore the ability to double a thousand times compute every eight years that's actually an incredible thing when you think about what's required to take AI to the next level yeah I mean it's so hard to I was trying to wrap my head around what exactly that means today Ray given how far we've already come right how does this stack up against the competition yes Nvidia is still far out ahead but AMD as well as Intel really trying at least to make inroads here so there a couple things happening I mean if you look at the chip making ecosystem there were some Partnerships that were announced with cadence ansis synopsis so how you layer the chips how you put the chips together how you design them and of course how you manufacture the chips with tsmc they're taking advantage of tmc's 3 nanometer technology and more importantly the ability to actually bring these chips together and package them them in the right way these are some of the most Advanced chipm Technologies that are out there and there's nothing like it to be seen and so the question is whether AMD or Intel or other chip manufacturers can catch up or will people come up with an alternative to gpus to be able to solve the same set of problems I think the lad is what we're going to be looking for to say is there's something that will challenge the dominance of the GPU and will it come in a different package um you talk about the software part of it I mean this is NVIDIA sort of hinting at investors we're not just about chipm here um we did see them launch the cloud service for researchers to be able to test out nvidia's um Quantum Computing software in the grand scheme of things how big of a revenue driver as a software side likely to be for NVIDIA in the long term the software side will probably be bigger than the chip part of the business but when I mean long term think 5 to seven years out when the creation of the internet right was out there I mean we all thought the infrastru companies were going to win right we're like Al they're going to be up there right you thought about all these other companies like hey what's going to happen with Verizon and the Telco business but it turned out companies that actually built business models on the internet as a distribution Channel they're the ones that actually succeeded it's kind of like the story that people talk about in the refrigeration business when people were building out refrigerators it's like refrigerat manufacturers going to be the top companies but the company that went out was Coca-Cola so it's companies that can actually build software on top of these new ecosystems these are the ones that can actually build and make AI come to life yeah longterm then certainly something investors going to be focused on um going back to Ray uh the Blackwell platform here the hopper line which is the one that preceded it we're talking about $3,000 to what $440,000 per chip um what's the pricing that you're looking at for Blackwell specifically where you think it would um allow Nvidia to maintain at least the revenue momentum that we have seen well they haven't announced pricing but I think most people expect it to be slightly more expensive than the existing chipsets uh and because of the modularity and because of the reverse compatibility that's there uh so there hasn't been a lot of information about the pricing uh capabilities of what they're doing but I think the important piece is just to understand that you know the the architecture is Backward Compatible which means people will keep their h100 chips and then they'll upgrade to Blackwell or different components of Blackwell you could see all the different combinations that you could do to combine what was hoing on a hopper chip and a black wall platform and that was really the idea to say you know this is is not a one-way Street it actually works back both ways and you can actually connect existing Legacy architecture with this and all the software will work the same in Cuda as well Ray Wong constellation research founder and principal analyst always good to have you on the show thanks so much for joining us today thank you Kiko |
so0LBjT3rSM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so0LBjT3rSM | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | NAR settlement: Consumers stand to benefit the most, real estate analyst says | the National Association of realtor settled Landmark lawsuits agreeing to pay $418 million in Damages and amend several rules around commissions the implications could be widespread not only for home buyers but also for the number of companies and businesses in the sector let's bring in Ryan Thomas who is the managing director and real estate technology Analyst at KBW with steel company to discuss more here great to have you here with us who is the biggest beneficiary as the result of this settlement I mean thankfully consumers we think that these changes enacted in the settlement if it goes through are are going to stand to reshape the housing market in the greatest fashion we've seen in over 50 years historically consumers have lacked a lot of transparency around the process of how commissions are set and paid particularly home buyers and we think that these changes ultimately bring a lot more knowledge to home buyers in in their ability to negotiate and sign off on those commissions and and at the end of the day hopefully that reduces Commissions in aggregate uh by as much as 30% or more we've estimated Ryan to what extent is this going to reshape the housing market and I asked that because we were talking to Jim Tobin he was nhb CEO earlier in the hour he's talking about the impact that that he sees at least it having for home builders here in the longer term how do you see that ultimately potentially boosting activity here over the next sever several months or once it goes into effect in the summer well the the plumbing of the housing market is is certainly complex and there's a lot of different stakeholders whether it be home builders as you point out mortgage companies title companies maybe the more obvious players like the residential brokerages and even the real estate portals that help consumers shop for homes and we think that this ultimately stands to impact all of those stakeholders um you know our Focus has predominantly been on the impact to the traditional brokerage model and how that might need to evolve to adapt to these new rules and ultimately you know support buyers in this new type of structure that brings them more transparency and hopefully more options in the types of services that they can ultimately use in the home search process now for brokerages that might entail a smaller commission pull for which they're competing around um and so that can certainly cause some disruption and then perhaps just as interestingly real estate portal is that you know historically relied more on the buy side piece of this commission pool for their revenue models companies like Zillow realor.com you know may need to reconsider their focus in the role that they play in the housing market um and potentially shift that focus more to the sell side in terms of advertising homes um for homeb Builders as you point out you know the question becomes if this overall reduction in friction costs around one of life's biggest transactions ultimately incentivizes more housing turnover improves affordability and certainly at the margin we think that's true but but that will take time and ultimately we think overall macro supply and demand Dynamics are going to play a bigger role for those types of players but it certainly you know shows you that this has a a much far reaching impact than just the traditional you know broker players in in this landscape is this so significant then that it would change the perhaps price range that a a potential buyer is willing to take on for for a home well it's a it's a very common debate around whether or not you know commissions are are built into the home price and if those decline do home prices actually fall um you know there's data that supports that on both sides of of that coin you know my personal view has been that as we said earlier home prices are are set by supply and demand to the extent that you know these friction costs commissions around the trans action are lowered perhaps that does uh end up reducing home prices at the margin uh you know I think another important factor here is that um you know there is going to be some added friction especially near term uh for home buyers that may potentially be on the hook to cover the cost of their Buyer Agents commission under of their own pocket now Sellers and listing agents will still have certain mechanisms to be able to uh reimburse the home buyer for the cost of those Services um but to the extent that that does not occur on a case-by casee basis some home buyers might need to re-evaluate you know whether or not they choose to work with an agent how much they're willing to pay the scope of services they they're they're seeking out a white glove service versus just a more basic type of offering and how that ultimately plays into their own affordability equation around you know their their home search process right what what do you think it's going to do for employment within the sector specifically Realtors there has been number of projections talk about the fact that people are going to be ultimately forced to leave the industry given the fact that their incomes won't be anything like they were prior to this ruling do you have any idea just of what the impact is going to look like here on the employment level yeah I think if there's one thing industry folks tend to agree with most it's that there's far too many of them real estate agents across the country now you know there's different estimates around how many you know agents there are out there anywhere from one and a half million to even two to three million plus by some other estimates and a lot of those agents are more marginal you know you know meaning approaching this um approaching this uh business as more of a side gig a side hustle to support other um sources of income and so you know these marginal agents we think are the ones that might face a more um near-term reality of whether or not they choose to stay in the industry based on you know the the cost of doing business going forward and how how that needs to evolve um you know ultimately this stands to benefit the subcohort of agents that are actually the full-time highest quality agents in terms of their ability to you know reckon with maybe a smaller pie of real estate commissions But ultimately getting a bigger slice of that P right because those agents will be the ones who will be best positioned to pitch their value proposition win more business and ultimately benefit despite the fact that this might cause this disruption on the commission makes sense all right Ryan Ryan Thomas great to get your Insight here thanks so much for taking the time to join us this morning KBW Steel company thanks Ryan thank you |
maRP7lTh3Nk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maRP7lTh3Nk | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed rate cuts 'in the neighborhood of 2 to 3,' former Dallas Fed president says | the Federal Reserve kicking off its two-day meeting today now the big focus is going to be on the central bank's economic projections investors right now looking for any clues on the timing of that First Rate cut Traders right now pricing in about a 55% percent probability that we will see that First Rate cut in June to break this all down for us and what we could expect from the FED going forward we want to bring in Robert Kaplan he's the former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president thank you so much for being here good to be here so talk about what we are likely going to hear or see from the fed this week there's been so much emphasis placed on economic projections on the Dot Plot how many Cuts we are going to get between now and year end how are you looking at that uh the FED said in December that they were uh penciling in three for this year I still think that's a pretty decent estimate it may slip to two but it'll be in this neighborhood of two to three but the most important thing that I think japal will try to do coming out mean is keep his options open and keep the fed's options open because uh there's a lot of mixed uh data and crosscurrents and so uh I don't think he wants to be boxed into any particular month or action but he wants to leave the options open that if they want to act in June they can but also they they reserve the right to Kick the Can a little bit beyond June so they've continued to talk about data dependency and and you're giving a nod to the mixed data that we are seeing right now so where would we see more of a trend be locked in that's in line with what the fed's targets are so I'm much more of a fan of what are the drivers of the data than the actual bouncing ball the data itself and the drivers uh the two or three drivers I'll mention uh the economy remains resilient however um and the job market remains very strong uh there's been a little bit of increase in labor Supply which is helpful to the and that's why the unemployment rate ticked up but the truth is there's still very strong demand for Labor uh and maybe productivity is improving a little bit the big crosscurrent that I think the FED is dealing with and they may or may not want to acknowledge is fiscal spending we ran a 15% deficit as a percentage GDP in 2020 we ran another close to 15% in 21 that was due to arpa but that arpa money actually is still not been fully spent and then you've got the inflation reduction act and then you've got the infrastructure act and so last year we ran a deficit over 7% of GDP in 2019 the deficit was four in a fraction here's the point uh fiscal spending I believe is one of the big reasons the economy has been this resilient and it's a big reason why the service sector inflation in the service sector is very resilient we have a aging Society I wish we weren't aren't aging but we are and Workforce growth is decelerating and so uh people are struggling to find workers in the service sector and I think that that makes inflation sticky and so the FED looking at all these cross currents uh is trying they don't want to move prematurely uh it's been a long battle in inflation uh we're still at full employment and so I think they're going to be patient and I think they ought to be patient is that enough then to maybe support the argument out there that maybe in fact inflation has stalled and will stall around these levels for a little bit it's possible now remember there's two big parts of inflation goods and services in the goods area not perfect we've got pretty good disinflation in Goods it's it's the service sector that if there's a stall and it all revolves around workers uh excess demand for workers not enough workers uh and we're seeing uh if we see some stalling or stickiness it'll be in the service sector and again if you're spending on new battery plants throughout the United States that's the inflation reduction act new infrastructure projects the unspent arpa money from 2021 is still being spent that increases demand for workers so there's a lot of sectors in this economy that are feel like they're in a recession some anything interest rate sensitive but this government spending on these projects in my opinion is creating a resilient bid for workers and that may be creating some of the stickiness which gives that which may create some of this stalling that you're referring to but I don't know and they don't know the FED doesn't know and so when you don't know turn over a few more cards and and play it out and they and and if if the unemployment rate were spiking there'd be more urgency to act but it's not and so as long as unemployment stays employment stays strong and unemployment stays low I think they've got the luxury of patience the FED has leaned into of course its dual mandate as it should we had fed Cher pow though acknowledg that the pandemic may have changed in a sustained way how they target inflation in recent weeks and so with that in mind should the FED be over indexing or giving more weight to to some data points than others as they're trying to figure out what of the past they can lean on to try and uh combat the same inflationary pressures they should be looking at data but they should be looking at again fundamental drivers that explain the data problem with data is it gets revised it could be incorrect it could be misleading it's aggregated which happened with the employment situation where we got those two key revisions I think the big fundamental drivers are we've got a decelerating aging Workforce and we've got substantial government spending that is uh that is bidding on workers uh again the flip is you got a lot of immigration maybe some of those workers are entering the workforce that would help productivity may be improving that would help mean you could grow faster with lower inflation and so it's not clear though and sometimes when it's not clear you don't want to be a slave to the data but you want to see some discernable sustainable Trend and so far we lately we haven't quite seen that and I think there just take more time turn over a few more cards so what does that then tell us about the soft Landing narrative it seems like that from the points that you're making that at least has the highest chance of happening at this point I think so so the good news is uh it's for me it's very it's unlikely in the near term we're going to have a recession the bad news is the cost of that soft Landing you've got government debt to GDP over 100% you have government interest expense on its way to a trillion dollars by next year rates are staying high that really burdens business but it really burdens the federal government when you've got 9 trillion of treasuries to sell this year so the only thing is everybody's obsessed understandably with what the fed's going to do fed will do its job I think they should be more obsessed with the government spending and The Leverage at the government level and government interest squeezing out government programs I think that's going to be the bigger issue to deal with and I think we we do well to focus more on that issue I think that's an issue that's going to be more thorny in the months and years ahead there's some overe exuberance within the markets right now as it pertains to the the sentiment either driven by the AI Rally or driven by the level of cuts or the the pacing of the cuts that we would get as well as we saw through uh the BFA Global fund manager survey the sentiment the highest since January of 2022 all that considered for this Market Market what should they expect of the FED to either continue to deliver or kind of dampen down some of the expectations so my own view if you look at financial markets more broadly Equity markets if if you've got growth that's sustainable if you've got improvements in productivity which is obviously helping AI as part of that then you could tolerate higher rates because you've got growth with it I think the fear for the equity markets for example and other markets is you got slower growth and still sticky inflation uh but right now I think the the the stock market's responding reasonably well not just to the FED they they'd prefer the FED would have been able to cut rates by now but if the reason they're not able to cut is growth is better then then that that's bolstered the stock market my concern is this government spending will eventually need to Peter out we're going to need to get it under control and then I think you'll see a clear picture of what's the organic strength in this economy I think it may be slower growth than what we're seeing now and and I think that's more of a looming question for the markets but should this Market brace itself to be upset by the FED in the near term I don't think the FED itself is going to upset them I think the FED will do its job I listen two years ago I felt the Fed was dramatically out of position rates were too low there was still buying bonds it's now done a 180 and fixed that I think the FED is well position now will do its job I don't think the fed by itself is it it's going to do it's going to do what it should do I think the market actually should be more worried about the fiscal situation and how much of this growth is organic versus artificially stimulated by government spending which is unlikely to be sustainable that's a bigger issue I think I think not the FED fed will do its job Robert Kaplan former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president thank you so much for taking the time here with us in studio good to talk with you |
O3hfciS0V8M | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3hfciS0V8M | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | US homebuilding bounces back in February as builders grow ‘optimistic’ about rate cuts | well us home building bouncing back in February the new residential construction jumped 10.7% in February from the month prior to an annualized pace of more than 1 and A5 million units that's according to the Commerce Department while home affordability continues to be a challenge for many Americans the expectation the FED could cut interest rates this year is making people more optimistic that we could be in a buyer market so for more on the housing sector we're joined by Jim Tobin who is the National Association of Home Builders chief executive officer and president the nahb has had some news of its own this week we'll dive into that of course here Jim but what more noticeably are you seeing in this environment and and are we set up for a a shift in the sentiment out there good morning yeah I I do think we are set for a shift in sentiment uh I I hear I see optimism uh we were just at our our our large annual trade show just a couple of weeks ago and and the uh the vibe amongst all the attendees was was optimism I really think they're looking at 2024 as this pivot year where we come out of the the high interest rate environment hopefully we'll see some of those Fed rate cuts through the course of this year but really demand starting to come back and of course our our members are ready to respond by building more Homes and Apartments Jim what happens if we don't get three Ray Cuts what happens if it's two or God forbid if it's zero what then happens to home builders well I I still I we are optimistic that it's at least two uh and know some people were forecasting something a little earlier in the year we think that the the rates are going to be backloaded into the second half of the year um but we're we're I think we're not anticipating that we're really thinking that the econom is going to keep moving along at a nice Pace I know there's been some concern about a a little spike in inflation especially in the shelter inflation piece uh but I think that we will continue to see rates moderate into the 6% range and again we're still waiting for people to get used to the new normal out here uh rather than those three or 4 per rates that we got used to over the last four or five years so again we're optimistic and uh and hopefully that the FED will uh will see uh that it the right thing to do is to is to keep moving the the country forward by bringing those rates down of course this week we got the the National Association of home builders um the Builder sentiment report that came out that came out on March 18th and just yesterday we heard from the chief Economist Robert de saying however as home building activity picks up Builders will likely grapple with Rising material prices particularly for lumber how EPT is the consumer environment to really take on more of this pricing as new construction comes about yeah I mean between between labor and material prices and then then you have to factor in lot costs as well I think ultimately uh if if demand surges and and and building continues to to move forward but but not at the pace to meet uh that pent up demand I do see some spikes and prices coming and you know Lumber in Lumber in particular we saw those price spikes right after the the the covid uh the co lockdowns when Home Building really got going it's just that we're not we're not sure that the lumber companies are are really getting ready for a surge in demand that they're you kind of waiting for us to get a little farther out ahead and if we do do that then I I think the fear is that the lumber company's going to play catchup which means a supply Crunch and then price spikes and of course that just translates into higher higher construction costs Jim I'm curious the big headline or one of the big headlines I should say within your industry over the last week has been the n settleman and the cap that this is placing on commission fees I'm curious does that have an impact on home builders or or what does that mean then for homebuilders going forward just in terms of whether or not they're able potentially to save money maybe in the long run or or is there any impact sure I home home builders operate very much as is just a buyer or seller uh you know Realtors are involved in a lot of those if not most of those transactions when buying a new home uh so if if commission prices come down then of course the the cost of the Builder if they're if the Builder is selling the home they're they've been on the hook for that that 6% to help that uh that buyer get into the get into the home so I think as commissions come down uh or hopefully we priced down I hope that we will see cost to uh to builders come down as well is and and that just translates into lower home prices for for consumers but again we have to see how this this all shakes out but uh but it it was a big move this week with n's decision Jim I'm curious have you heard from any of the home builders just how they're thinking about this and how big of a boost maybe they see potentially being to activity here in the longer run yeah it at the at the end of the day uh for for the the members of the National Association it's all about uh home price and and building an affordable home or apartment and anything that helps make it more affordable for Americans get into homes that's a good thing and if Commission are part of that uh that that is uh that's one of part of the equation the real answer in the long term though is is something that the president said in a state of the union speech we' have just got to build more Homes and Apartments we've got to increase Supply so for us the ultimate Panacea for the housing affordability crisis is more homes and more Apartments Jim look I'm I'm an aspirational homeowner one day I what's the hot Market that you're seeing everybody flock to right now or where we're seeing the most spikes just just so I have some things to consider out there I know that red fin is saying uh Portland Oregon in their uh in their report that came out this morning looking particularly across the home price index I think the only thing that could get me out there is probably Bandon dun's Golf Resort but what are you seeing actually uh I've been visiting with friends in in the Portland Market this week and it's true that the Portland Market very tight uh needs more housing house high home prices but yet Portland is really starting to wake up to the fact that they've got a supply fly and affordability problem so yes I think we're starting to see some activity out here on the West Coast but I still think the hot markets are always going to be in the Southeast I could you know Texas moving East over into Florida and the Carolinas they just have a low regulatory environment they've got a a a very welcoming uh Pro Home Building Pro apartment attitude down there and and they've got the weather uh not that Portland isn't lovely this time of year but uh at the end of the day um the southeast continues to be the Boom Town uh when it comes to Home Building in the in the country what do you think where you going Portland OR Southeast it's brick in Portland this time of the year I'm not going out there I got to get a stronger jacket Jim it's not that good all right Jim always great to talk to you thanks so much for joining us here on Yahoo finance today Jim Tobin a National Association of home builder CEO and president thanks Jim thank you |
I1qzxpNCE4M | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1qzxpNCE4M | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | China: Stocks to consider as the economy rebounds | we're seeing China's economy come back it's it's incremental it's slow uh similar to your previous guest uh Mr Kaplan the former fed fed Governor China's been unwilling to do major fiscal stimulus because they don't want to go in further into debt they don't want to create inflation so they're allowing the economy to come back and what we're seeing from the Q4 earnings thus far is restaurants and travel are where you're seeing the Chinese consumers start to spend more and we think that will uh broaden out to other areas like eCommerce which was quite strong in terms of retail sales so so China's coming back just a little bit slower than that maybe investors would like and so for investors that are trying to position their portfolio and and looking across International opportunities how strong is China as a portfolio play and Are there specific sectors within the region that they should be focusing in on yeah I mean we're all invested in China either explicitly or implicitly that you have a lot of China exposure through great us multinationals if it's Apple Tesla Starbucks Boeing uh Nik you know a whole host in terms of explicit where we're really focused at crane chear is on the growth segments of China's economy that that some of the underperformance of China indices is due to very high weights to financials energy Industrials materials and real estate slow low sectors so so what crane is we want to get exposure to growth areas like domestic consumption as it happens online uh clean technology which includes electric vehicles solar wind uh but also technology plays like semiconductors how much though is some of this optimism being offset by the weakness that we continue to see within the property sector and the fact that that continues to shake the confidence not only obviously of Chinese investors but also just from investor interest on a global scale yeah 100% I mean the the real estate situation in China is dual faceted one is the falling of real estate prices is way on domestic consumption as Urban households have two-thirds of their wealth invested in real estate so so as part of their portfolio declined in value they've been been slower in terms of consumption the other side of the equation is distressed real estate players like the evergr and Country Gardens uh the lack of property projects which means less construction workers less demand for cement and steel and that's why real estate is receiving so much attention from the Chinese government they won't allow a financial crisis to occur it's not in their best interest to allow real estate unfold into a crisis which again is why we're seeing so much policy support as it relates to foreign policy and and international business how much of a trading event does the general election in 2024 here in the US create I think there's um you know geopolitics um unfortunately the politicians from both sides uh don't get don't get along nearly as well as business people uh just last night you saw nidia's CEO speaking to how they're actually creating uh chips for China's electric vehicle automakers um no different than Apple Tesla General Motors Exxon Mobile you know business people get along just fine and it's unfortunate that the two sides aren't traveling more uh like business people are I'm I'm I'm a little bit less concerned about the uh election because I think all the investors who are worried about it are no longer invested and that's that's kind of makes me constructively bullish on the um rally we've had since since January you mentioned the us multinationals earlier what what would be your top picks or plays for the rest of 2024 in China well I think I think you know self-serving and highly biased you know our Flagship fund is focused uh kweb is focused on Chinese internet companies but I think those companies of as we even today look at 10cent Music Entertainment uh reported very strong earnings uh we had a a smaller company called Tong Chen travel reported Revenue growth over a 100% tomorrow we have pin duo duo 10 cent and kashu Reporting so I think the Q4 earnings is showing this rebound it just it's been out of sight out of mind for investors and that's why we're seeing this grind higher which I'm all for even even today's BFA fund man the most crowded trades long US tech short China I mean we've already started the rally and yet these people are still shorting so again that grind higher makes me very constructive on the space and it's self- serving again and highly biased that I'm more uh I'm I'm heavily invested in kweb personally uh but that is an area I really do like just because of the very very cheap valuations as well as the orientation to China's domestic consumption story as it comes back yeah it was interesting as you were mentioning 10-cent Music Entertainment Group and the fourth quarter paying users the the music paying users up 20.6% there uh and the RPO increased by about 20% year-over-year so uh no doubt some good stats to come out of that report thank you so much for joining us here today Brendan aern who is the crane Sheriff's Chief investment officer appreciate it thank you |
IVfrcRH3lNw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVfrcRH3lNw | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Energy transition will continue ‘no matter how the politics go,’ Raymond James director says | Sarah week by S&P Global bringing together all of the top names in oil and natural gas for the annual Global energy conference and Yahoo finance had a front row seed bringing top commentary including a conversation with Exxon Mobile CEO Darren Woods where he spoke with our very own Julie Heyman about the energy transition our emphasis has been uh one recognizing the solution set that that the world's been pursuing with um wind and solar and EVS is a necessary but not sufficient set of solution Solutions and that we've needed a much broader um set of solutions to try to drive the change and the transition that everybody's hoping for for much more on the energy space we're now joined by Paul moltov who is Pavo moltov excuse me Raymond James managing director and equity research analyst pavle thanks so much for taking the time here today you just heard the commentary there from from Darren Woods here I'd love to get your perspective on on what he had to say about this broader transition and and what some of those takeaways that he's seeing from that at Exon Mobile from the sahwi conference it's factually true that fossil fuels will continue to be needed for a long time to come I mean no one has seriously disputed that so when you know we talk about net zero emissions by you know 2050 right that's 26 years from now to stay the obvious and even then by 2050 there will still be need you know for some amount of fossil fuels for example natural gas to make chemicals you know oil for Aviation and and the Marine Market um but it is a question of time you know before for example Global oil demand Peaks and begins to decline you know we we just don't know yet you know precisely what that timetable looks like so then paava with that in mind what do you think this really tells us about Exxon strategy then given the fact that demand for oil remains high and is likely to remain high like you were saying here for years to come well we we know that Exxon is acquiring um Pioneer Natural Resources you know one of the largest Acquisitions uh in in the history of the oil and gas industry uh you know we we know that Exxon is investing in know some kind of renewable and energy transition initiative so carbon cap uh that you know you've heard in the interview about uh but look as as a general premise uh the only oil companies today that are truly kind of needle moving in their you know sustainable energy Investments are in Europe so these are going to be companies like BP equinor shell totel eii uh American you know oil and gas companies are generally further behind in their energy transition plans and the same thing you know I would say for companies like s aramco or Petra schne or Petra brass Pavo I I wonder from your own modeling uh and your own research here into these equities into these major oil and gas names what timeline you're kind of annexing to some of the Ambitions that they've communicated to the street yeah so Net Zero for just about all these uh players is uh middle of the century right so that's long time from now to you know to say the least you know it's it's safe to say that you know none of the uh you know Executives who are you know who have made these Net Zero decisions in recent years will be running the companies know once Net Zero actually gets implemented by the middle of the century which means it will be up to the subsequent generations of management teams you know to make the kind of the the tougher decisions for know how to reach Net Zero you know within the next uh 25 30 years do you foresee a a changing of the guards or changing of the person behind the Resolute desk in the white house as throwing off some of those timelines well as I mentioned the the most ambitious you know road maps uh for you know in the nearer term for energy transition and the oil industry are are in Europe uh so of course the US election has has has no you know relationship to that uh as far as uh you know Biden versus Trump short answer is no um you know once you know companies have committed to you know to Net Zero let's remember this is not because the government is forcing them to do it right nobody forced Exon you know to put out a net zero Target no even in Europe by the way you know these are not legally binding uh you know Net Zero requirements for the individual companies you know it's it's a largely matter of ESG shareholder pressure kind of voluntary decision making and here's the reality no matter how the politics goes uh energy transition will continue yes governments play a role they can play a useful role or a less a less useful role uh but for the industry it is important to remain on this road map or frankly risk getting left behind Pavo let's do out a little bit talk about what's going on at a macro level because the Big Driver one of the big drivers in the recent price uh to the upside movement to the upside in the price of crude has been Russia's war in Ukraine now there is talk or there is I guess some sort of thinking line of thinking here that we could see a cap on the Move higher if we do see more Russian oil come online what do you see this doing to the price of crude at least in the short term so when when Russia invaded Ukraine um just over two years ago you know the number one question right at the outset was would the Kremlin try to weaponize its oil industry in other words deliberately cut off Supply as a way of hurting the global economy and the Kremlin tried playing that game with natural gas but not with oil so that's why when oil prices R up in the middle of 22 they came down pretty quickly once people realized Russian oil is continuing to flow in recent weeks however we have seen the war quite literally begin to have an effect on on Russian Supply because Ukraine has become skilled at using drones to physically attack Russian oil infrastructure now it's not the oil fields themselves those are too far you know away in Siberia but the refineries across Russia you know the European portion of Russia that are you know processing Russian crude have been attacked numerous times by by Ukrainian drones in recent weeks uh and that has pushed up the price of price of oil and in particularly the the price of um refined products so gasoline and so on pava mov always great to get your Insight thanks so much for hopping on with us here this morning Raymond James the managing director and equity research analyst thanks pava |
CoRkI-PnTTk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoRkI-PnTTk | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bank of Japan raising interest rates sets a 'positive backdrop for Japan equities,' strategist says | a historic move by the bank of Japan the Central Bank raising its key policy rate for the first time in 17 years Yen sliding against the dollar you also have yields moving to the downside now the bank of Japan's action coming ahead of the Federal Reserve decision tomorrow we want to bring chrisy aolian Black Rock senior investment and portfolio solution strategist Christie it's great to have you here on set thanks for having me so let's talk about let's start with the news out this morning Bank of Japan the big headline here in terms of what this means Ripple effects Beyond Japan talk to us about how you're looking at this from a strategist perspective yeah so you know I think that it it's important that we note how momentus the moves were out of Japan that we saw this morning I know we've talked about it a bit um but the First Rate hike in 17 years you know a return out of um the very abnormal situation of negative interest rates and into positive interest rates we think that that sets a really positive backdrop for Japan and Japan equities and I think that how investors can think about that more broadly in their portfolio is just another way to maybe divers y away from some of the remarkable concentration that we see in the US Equity market so we're constructive on us Equity markets but we actually see a lot of opportunity for investors to add Japanese equities here as well and this is not significant enough to throw off say a Warren Buffett who's invested further into Japanese trading house as we know in recent years I mean this is and for those who have subscribed to that same kind of buffettology if you will of the markets this is not enough to throw a wrench in that right no I I I think that the the broader macro Tailwinds that we're seeing from Japan moving out of deflation and into an inflationary regime are enough to offset some of the headwinds that we might see from a stronger y crazyy this of course comes ahead of the FED decision tomorrow a lot of the focus is going to be on that dotplot what exactly the economic projections are showing what is your base case at this point and do you think the Market's a bit too optimistic about how many rates we are going to see or the degree of those uh rate Cuts before the end of the year yeah so I mean if we if we you know go back and and even just think about how we came into this year the market was expecting almost seven rate cuts um and there was also 100% chance of a cut you know tomorrow in March if we went back to January um now where we said there's about a 0% chance so as you point out you know we're not watching to see if the FED is going to move we're watching to see what the dotplots and the expectations of forward policy are going to look like so you know our view is is has always been that we think that there's probably going to be about three rate Cuts this year potentially starting in June or July I think what we're going to get tomorrow from from the fed and and what we're watching to see if chair Pelican sort of navigate here is leaving himself some optionality and I think the Dot Plot is going to show us that we're still probably going to get maybe median three Cuts here but I think the risk is that it moves to two rather than it moves to four how much does that matter for the equity Market I I think that some of the reaction of that has already been priced in since we've already seen so many of those cuts come out of the market since you know just since January and a year to date but I do think that it can matter for the lower quality parts of the market so if we look at things like small caps and we look at really highly levered companies they've struggled a bit this year and I think they can continue to struggle so what we prefer instead is really staying I mean up in quality up in market cap we like something like qual um is the msci I shares quality Factor ETF um that's performed well last year and this year and we think it can continue to do so especially if at the margins we start to see Cuts coming out of the market rather than going into it do you think that and and I was looking through your black rock weekly Market commentary that the team puts out um and it had within there that inflation is likely to settle above the fed's 2% Target in 2025 so with that lead time I mean what does that spell out for Consumer sentiment what does that spell out for business confidence as well in that near-term period yeah so I mean I think that there's a few different drivers of inflation happening what we saw during the pandemic was obviously a supply side crunch um and and so you know I think that led to more temporary inflation and the transitory that you know was probably a dirty now when we look back got on a t-shirt at this point exactly um I think that we see some broader Mega forces happening in the economy um global economy that can lead to some of that higher structural inflation um so things like demographic changes um are are you know things that we're focusing on for the the kind of medium term I I think the more important thing for right now is that we think inflation can be a little bit volatile throughout this you know throughout 20124 and so you know maybe it's not just when the FED starts cutting but how many times this year and again it all kind of leads us back to this up and quality trade as being the best place to sort of camp out when there's that amount of uncertainty and volatility that we should expect Chris Dean who is the Black Rock senior investment and portfolio solution strategist thanks so much for taking the time here in studio thanks so much for having me |
ok58aXPeGhA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ok58aXPeGhA | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | ‘Like a rock concert’: Nvidia GTC 2024 event builds on AI leader’s hype | Bob it's great to have you here and I know you're joining us live from the conference I believe just your reaction to what we heard yesterday from Jensen Wong and whether or not those announcements lived up to the very high expectations well first to jump on Dan's comments as well I mean it was like a rock concert it was unbelievable uh just to see the level of excitement there and I went to gdc's a long gtc's a long time ago and let me tell you the mood was not the same as it was yesterday so clearly they do have this incredible moment um and yeah I do think they delivered on uh what they they promised and I'll even add one extra thing to what Dan had brought up in terms of important things not entirely sure how the Market's reacting maybe some of this was already baked in but look at the end of the day this next Generation Blackwell archit architecture sets the stage for them to stay ahead of the competition and arguably it was the first one designed and released in the generative AI era while previous Nvidia chips of course are being used for generative AI they were actually built prior to the explosion of all this this one kind of was built in that time era the other big takeaway and this is a big strategic move longterm for NVIDIA like like Dan mentioned for Groot is software in general they enveil something called Nims Nvidia inference microservices very technical thing but it's these little containerized applets that companies can use to put together gen applications and oh importantly of course it's B based on nvidia's Cuda which is this software layer that's been the sticky part of this whole system so the thing about Nims is that companies can make the process of building gen apps which by the way is still really hard much easier thereby allowing more companies to do this and oh by the way in the along the way Nvidia becomes more of a software company in addition to being a chip company with new Revenue sources from that software and so Bob how does Nvidia add on to what is already seeming or feeling like these Peak levels of of generative AI mentions second highest number by the way according to fact that data of S&P 500 companies citing AI on earnings calls over the past 10 years so how how much more difficult does it become for not just Nvidia but for the rest of the potential benefactors in this environment to now show Wall Street to show investors that it can actually deliver on some of these promises well look Brian that's a great question and and that's why I mentioned this Nim software and another concept they called AI Foundry and the AI Foundry is this idea of being able to build for people like a Foundry a chip Foundry but this is a software Foundry these applications because yeah look the excitement's been out there now it's about hey we need to deliver this and we've seen the potential we've seen proof of Concepts but how do we get you know regular companies to be able to build this they don't have all the data scientists they need to be able to pull some of this stuff off so how do we make the process easier and that is what a lot of this software work that Nvidia is doing is working on and you know and on the other on the hardware side the other thing to remember like look when you're 90% of the market and you're way ahead of everybody you're basically competing with yourself that's what they're doing right now is they're competing with themselves pushing themselves forward and you know I think they did a good job with black deal there's a lot of interesting things about the architecture uh that they've done like I said that are kind of built in this era of gen applications and they made some tweaks to allow performance improvements at you know at a big level and also important Energy Efficiency improvements which also is going to help them in the long run Bob how critical is it for other Tech players when you see the reaction in a name like Dell here this morning after Jensen Wong touted the fact that he said quote nobody is better at Building endin Systems a very large scale for the Enterprise then Dell we're also seeing reaction in sap this War how critical is it for other Tech players to be using nvidia's platform at this stage in the AI cycle well you know I think they all think it's incredibly valuable and important I mean I have never seen more partner announcements at an event I think in my life I mean everybody in their brother like wanted to be associated with Nvidia and that's what we saw we saw all the major Cloud providers all the server makers Dell of course being called out but there's also HP there's Lenovo there's super micro there's these other companies who are also going to be building stuff uh with these parts all these software companies ances Cadence um all you know all kinds of big companies who are building software based on this because they see where the market is going they see in for in fact that Nvidia is in the lead so of course they want to associate themselves and that's why there was just this you know incredible array as I said of different partner announcements because they want to do that now we're also going to see a lot of competitors right AMD is going to get in here and and this Market is going to continue to grow and even if Nvidia loses share which is kind of hard not to do when you have that much the market is going to still grow so much that there's still growth opportunity for NVIDIA I don't know why the Market's reacting the way it is now like I said hard to to predict under that particular detail but in the long run I think they've positioned themselves very nicely hey Bob just lastly while we have you here I mean there's a lot of focus on what the growth looks like for NVIDIA especially outside of the us as well are there any clear answers that are coming forth from this conference about how this company is going to service into China where there's already even more between the US and China of the kind of tit fortat that's continuing to play out which puts a bit of a dampener on on the opportunities in that region no it absolutely does Brad and and I don't see any easy answer I mean this is a this is a difficult problem that I think all Tech Industries are goingon to All Tech companies are going to face people like Invidia and AMD and Qualcomm and Intel in particular producing you know very highly performant chips you know they're the ones who are obviously being restricted more already and so yes that is a bit of a damper on the business so they are all working on developing chips specifically for the China Market that can you know still provide some capabilities China says they want to do all their own but they are years and years behind the most advanced technology so um you know it's going to be a very interesting situation to watch again I think longer term what Nvidia tried to do at this particular show is show to the world hey we're going to build these amazing chips and we're going to make them better and better but hey check out this software stuff because we're going to be doing it too we're going to start charging on a per hour basis of per GPU per hour to use some of these Services again that's really interesting Revenue there obviously almost nothing right now but what's the opportunity all right well Jensen Hong CEO of Nvidia certainly resembling something of the greatest showman right now as this event continues to roll on our own Dan Hy out there Bob thank you so much for taking the time as well Bob O'Donnell technis research president and chief analyst |
_ClhZcuF25A | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ClhZcuF25A | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia GTC 2024 new products: Blackwell GPU, GB200 Superchip, and GR00T humanoid robot software | our top story this morning nvidia's big AI conference shares of the AI darling ticking lower after CEO Jensen Hong unveiled the company's hotly anticipated Next Generation Blackwell chip alongside a number of other announcements for those announcements we go to Yahoo finances Dan holey here with the three biggest takeaways from the opening remarks from the CEO of Nvidia hey Dan yeah rad uh you know you could probably describe yesterday's conference uh where Wong took the stage uh at the uh sap Center in San Jose I mean as a Victory lap for the company uh the people were packed up to the rafters I mean I have some video that we'll we'll have uh later this week but it's it's absolutely incredible to see how many people were in there just to hear everything that he had to say and he basically kicked things off from uh when Nvidia started investing in AI to today so so the the three biggest things uh that he had announced are the new Blackwell GPU architecture this is basically the uh successor to its h100 and h200 chips that's the uh uh Hopper architecture so going forward this is what uh AI chips are going to be based on at Nvidia they also announced the new gb200 super chip that's the uh Grace Blackwell is what G uh GB stands for Grace is their CPU Blackwell is a GPU and basically it takes two gpus use uh and mates them together with a CPU to form what Wong says is the world's most powerful chip at the moment and so that Chip is going to be running uh different AI uh inferencing uh and training programs that companies want to get access to and then finally uh he announced at the end of the show uh what they call Groot which is basically a new type of AI uh architecture of a foundation model uh for humanoid right uh like robots so uh you can think uh not exactly uh Terminator or Bender from Futurama but uh the early stages of getting some kind of humanoid likee robot up and running and so it would be able to help with motor functions as well as natural language understanding uh and that he said is something that the company sees as a a very long-term bet for them so uh he was on stage there were some digital uh representations of some current humanoid like robots that are being developed right now that Nvidia is actually working with so those are really the the the three key takeaways I think from from the event yesterday |
3YNku_diwoI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YNku_diwoI | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bank of Japan raises interest rates for first time in 17 years | well the bank of Japan the boj is Raising interest rates for the first time in 17 years today making it the last major Central Bank to exit the world's negative raid policy the country is the top holder of us sovereign debt and as yields are going up what is this mean for the global bond market to help break down how investors should be looking at this policy change we've got Yahoo finances very own Akiko feta here with us hey Akiko good morning to you Brad you're certainly right this is truly the end of an era when you consider the bank of Japan as you said the major Central Bank or the last of the major central banks to exit a policy that was largely seen as extreme and risky in the aftermath of the global financial crisis at its peak you had the European Central Bank as well as central banks in Denmark Switzerland and Sweden all setting their interest rates below zero and now that Japan's ended the longest experiment the question is going to be become number one how effective was this but also what does it mean for Global markets we should mention the boj Governor largely messaged this move but we did see uh that dollar Yen cross push lower with the dollar or Yen I should say trading about 150 to the dollar there it's certainly going to be interesting for us investors to be watching here the impact this is going to have on bond markets outside of Japan particularly treasuries this eight-year experiment left more than $4 trillion doar $4 trillion in funds for higher yield outside of Japan Japan as you mentioned the largest buyer of us debt we're talking about $ 1.1 trillion dollar here and the question is going to be how quickly that money will return to Japan with yields for Japanese government bonds expected to push higher Al though we should point out this yield differential between the Japanese government bonds and other bonds certainly Still Remains high now the other thing to watch here is going to be what happens to the Nik we've been talking about this a lot the Nik hitting records in recent weeks here largely driven by fundamental policy changes but also driven by a cheaper Yen with the expected to push higher now what does that mean for the foreign money continuing to flow into the nik's rise here now as with other central banks the other thing to watch here is how rapidly the rates are going to rise we heard from boj Governor Kazo AA saying that he doesn't anticipate the accommodated Financial conditions will be maintained for the time being or he anticipates I should say so he doesn't expect rates to rise very quickly because when you think about it the inflation rate in Japan's still up 2.2% the bank of Japan has lag the major central banks but we're not talking about the kind of inflation that we saw in the US now one more thing to note here the government did or the boj did also abandon the yield curve control that is uh the the bond or the policy here that has kept Japanese governments largely Tethered to that 0% rate and what last number to leave you here with this really speaks to the scope of of this policy that has been in place uh for nearly a decade now now 17 years since the hike all combined the bank of Japan bought more than $6 trillion dollar in Japanese government bonds and guys at a time when we're talking about the debt to GDP ratio in the US in Japan it is the highest in developing countries 250% of GDP is what we're talking about so uh really historic numbers here but at least the end of an era with those negative interest rates policies coming to an end the end of an era and also the move uh really creating ripples Beyond Japan noted by a number of strategist analysts out this morning in reaction to the move here from the boj all right Aiko thanks so much |
QuBy6Q6OIlQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuBy6Q6OIlQ | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Investor risk appetite at the highest in three years: BOFA Global Fund Manager Survey | well investor risk appetite is at its highest in 3 years that's according to a new Bank of America survey out today we're joined at the desk Now by Yahoo finance's very own Josh Schaefer each of us is picking one chart from this BFA survey Josh to dive into so let's start with you what are you interested in here we at a really exciting chart on Bon yields right we always want to talk about Bon yields guys why not expectations for lower bond yields falling to a one-year low according to Bank of America and the reason I point this out is similar the some some of the conversation you guys were just having about rates here and we've seen uh basically a repricing of what we're expecting from the fed this year down to about three Cuts now for the year and the largest question I think right now though is how how long are we going to see this volatility in the rate trade because right now that volatility in the rate trade when you look at some of the things that benefited from the dubish in December like a small caps that's down almost 2% over the last week while the S&P is actually up a little bit if I was looking at my charts right earlier so you've seen a significant lagging still from small caps compared to the S&P 500 as we've gone into this unsteady trade one thing that was interesting though in that trade that Mike Wilson over at Morgan Stanley was pointing out is you've still seen large caps be able to perform here it just hasn't necessarily been Tech you've seen a little bit of a cycle into more of a broadening out and so that's kind of my biggest question post fed is can we still see some support here and some broadening out even if the Dot Plot doesn't come in that dobish is the trade still brening out or is it a selloff well and it's what it comes back to too and this takes us to my chart actually because it's a little bit more on macro as it came through via this fund manager so survey uh and two-thirds of the respondents here which was interesting saying that recession is unlikely in the next 12 months there you're taking a look at the chart here the recession risks dissipating and particularly one of the things that was noted here is that the global economy will exper well they said it was unlikely that the global economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months get this and and take a look at that chart that is the most in uh most since February of 2022 so the highest level that we've seen since 2022 of respondents saying that it is unlikely we would see a recession so that perhaps duv tailes into some of the com confidence or the risk on tenor in some of the here here's the question BR sure does that start coming down if we end up in a higher for longer State and we have people start talking about lagging impacts again I'd be curious what that chart looks like in two months right because we've had everyone talking no recession we're in great shape we're in great shape right when do some of these economists start saying should I be worried about the labor market we were we were worried about the labor market with high rates right and now we're talking higher for longer does this start to come back down everyone's taken off their recession call in the last six months it feels like does that start to shift back I think will be interesting you would think it would right because it kind of goes to the narrative that we were talking about at least at the beginning of 2023 this expectation Josh like you were just saying the higher for longer the fact that we were in uh the expectations very different from the scenario that we're looking at today but if we do see any sort of change to the doot like our previous guest christe was talking about if we do see any sort of a risk here that maybe the FED is only going to cut two times maybe that doesn't necessarily impact equities at least to the extent that me many are fearing it would but you would think you would get a some more people at least a handful of more people saying that the risk of recession is a little bit higher than what it is today someone's got to be contrer in Sean got be well yeah well 62% of these respondents and this what the respondents are saying 62% of them saying uh there's a 62% probability of a soft Landing here so uh that is the consensus as we right real quick we're going to throw it my chart because we're to talk about the most overcrowded trades how people are positioning we have seen a bit of a shift and long mag 7 the most overcrowded or the most crowded trade excuse me at this point 58% of respondents saying that so we have seen a bit of a shift here in terms of whether or not we're in an AI bubble the other topic that everyone loves to debate at this point the respondents were pretty split 40% saying that we are in a bubble 45% saying no so the jury is still out on that time's going to tell on all of our charts I Bitcoin was on there Bitcoin the headline 10% people are long Bitcoin first appearance in the chart I know all right well when we do this again my chart's going first all right Josh thanks so much |
36bFWPfqLGg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=36bFWPfqLGg | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Exxon CEO talks 'broader set of solutions' for energy transition | I'm Julie Hyman you're watching Yahoo finance and I'm here at the Sarah week by S&P Global conference in Houston Texas where a big topic of conversation as we've been talking about has been the energy transition but there has been sort of a reframing of the conversation uh by some around the energy transition one of those folks is Darren Woods he is the CEO of Exon Mobile and he's joining me right now thanks so much for being here really appreciate it um when I say reframing the transition it's because you among others have sort of said we're going to need oil and gas for a little while here another comment on this front that really struck me today was from the CEO of Saudi ramco who said it was a fantasy that we could phase out oil and gas and he said instead we should be investing in them fantasy is a pretty strong word and I'm curious what your thinking is around that and whether you think you've been successful in moving the conversation on this front so I think our emphasis has been uh one recognizing the solution set that that the world's been pursuing with um wind and solar and EVS is a necessary but not sufficient set of solutions and that we've needed a much broader um set of solutions to try to drive the change and the transition that everybody's hoping for one that involves skill sets that frankly companies like exom mobile and our industry can bring to bear and so that with the Biden Administration and the IRA started to open the aperture on other opportunities to reduce emissions above and beyond on what wind and solar can do so carbon capture and storage a really important part hydrogen low carbon hydrogen is an important part of that biofuels is an important part of uh decarbonizing uh the world and society and so that conversation starting to evolve and people are becoming more acceptable accepting of that and that's what we're focused on is at this stage when we have this huge challenge in front of us of decarbing the energy system is we need more solutions not less and I think we're seeing that conversation uh happen and because we've been so narrowly focused the time it's going to take to achieve it has been slowed I think one of the reasons for what you heard with the mean is that idea that as the longer it takes to transition the longer you're going to need traditional fuel sources um I'm glad you brought up the IRA as well as sort of something that spurred investment here we're obviously in a presidential election here in the United States and former president Trump has talked about getting rid of the IRA obviously it's legislation so he couldn't do it alone but he could weaken it and depending on what happens to Congress as well maybe he could get more people on board sounds like you're a fan of the IRA it's been helpful in some ways to your industry so what are your thoughts on whether that could potentially be weakened well I think you know in terms of the IRA our view is if if the society wants to decarbonize the way to do that is to focus on the source of the issue which is emissions and to focus on you know looking at Carbon intensity and setting standards for carbon intensity which the IRA did and so it basically is technology agnostic says what you should focus on is achieving an an outcome which is lower carbon intensity for a product that makes us a fan because that says it opens up the opportunity for uh other businesses and industries to participate to try to meet that uh and that's why we're we're supportive of it why we've been looking at investing in that ultimately the decision as to how quickly you drive uh reduction is going to be a function of what Society wants which will be represented through the political process and the rules that come so if there's a change in the administration and they choose to take a different path then you know we're we're responsive to that but I think uh ultimately the world needs to decarbonize we need to do more to reduce emissions and I think the IRA is a good step towards that in terms of being technology agnostic focus on reducing the emissions and lowering the carbon intensity of society and I think that's the right approach so all else being equal would not want president Trump to try to eliminate I think this back and forth as one Administration or one party comes into power and and the other one comes back and flip-flopping is not good for making progress in the space it's not good for business it's not good for society as a whole we need consistency in this space and so I would argue for you know uh have the right kind of bipartisan debates get to a solution set that people can agree on and then Implement that and sustain it consistent instantly so that the businesses can then begin to plan around that and make the kind of Investments that we need to in order to drive emissions reductions so the trajectory that we're on currently where we are still seeing growth of demand for oil and gas production of oil and gas at the same time as you talked about concommittant with the growth in other types of energy sources and with carbon capture Technologies are you confident we can stay on this trajectory and also mitigate the worst effects of climate change you know some of the you know sort of climate catastrophes that we've begun to see crop up over the past several years I think one of the challenges is the way the problem has been stated in the past is we need to get rid of uh fossil fuels natural gas crude and uh and and coal and I think what we should stay focused on is we need to get rid of the emissions associated with the combustion of those things and I believe that while there are some circumstances where you need to get rid of the products and can't continue to combust there'll be other circumstances where you just deal with the emissions and so carbon capture and storage allows you to continue to use existing Energy Systems but capture the emissions associated with the combustion in those energy systems that will be a very important part of the solution if you look at what we're trying to do in our peran the unconventional business we are actually growing production and reducing emissions and we've got a net zero um emissions plan by 2030 for our peran production which is actually growing over this time frame so you can do both but you've got to be very thoughtful about it I think that again it comes back to the focus ought to be on how best do we reduce the emissions in some case it means getting rid of existing Energy Systems in other cases it means dealing with the emissions associated with those Energy Systems and we should be open to either one of those if we open our minds and stay focused on the right problem St I think we can make a lot of progress a lot more quickly than we have been 203 not that far away no um how far are you towards that goal because we've seen some carbon capture both by you all and other companies um but it hasn't really scaled as of yet so are you expecting to see a big acceleration in the next six years so in the peran the net zero for the peran is the emissions associate with our production of oil and gas and so we're on track to meet that objective so we're electrifying we're putting in Renewable Power Systems or Contracting for Renewable Power to and so that that's on track and we're going to achieve that very very confident in that carbon capture and storage is a brand new industry and you know one of the big challenges we've had in that space is you're creating a brand new uh value chain with a technology that historically is used for another purpose that's moving along but it's it is going to take time but just to give you an example of the scale that that our industry can bring to this we've got three contracts with an industrial uh gas uh supplier with a steel plant and with a a fertilizer company company to capture their CO2 and to store it 5 million tons per anom this that uh storage that that capturing of that CO2 and storing it is the equivalent of all the electric vehicles that have been sold in the US in total so just three deals at scale is equivalent to the entire electric vehicle Fleet in the United States and when and when are you there when in other words you sign the deal we signed the deal so we're we're starting to build the facilities and we will be BR those facilities on 2025 2026 time frame and then that business will continue to grow we invested in a pipeline a CO2 pipeline system that allows us to basically transport that CO2 we've got the ability to do the drilling and to manage the reservoir and we have the technology to capture the CO2 and so we're putting together that value chain signing deals we've got uh a group that's continuing to work on additional deals and our expectations will continue to grow and capture more and more CO2 and it'll make a big difference I'd be remiss if I didn't ask you about Guyana while I have you here which I know has been a big subject conversation um chevron's acquisition of H that you all um now want arbitration over its interest in Guyana in particular what's the best case outcome of all of that for you so we we've got three objectives with respect to that first I mean a little bit of context the Guyana development I think uh will go down as one of the most successful UC fful deep water developments in the history of the industry uh and the success of that development is in large part driven by all the work that we've been doing uh to grow that value to develop that resource effectively and expeditiously the contract that we signed with those Partners give us a right that if anyone partner chooses to leave the Venture there's a change in control that the existing Partners have the right to preempt and and have a option to partip ipate in that uh that change we're trying to preserve that that we we maintain and confirm our preemption rights the right of first refusal on the deal that's kind of objective number one uh as part of that process then and sustaining that right or confirming that right is understand what is take the Chevron hes Transaction what is the value of the Guyana assets within that transaction and so that gives us an understanding of the value for the the asset and then the third step be for us as a company to understand the value of that preemption right and what's in the best interest of the corporation and for our shareholders and so those are the three objectives that we have with the if the agreement is preserved as is just as it was with hes in a Hess under Chevron is that satisfactory well the the preemption right gives us a value opportunity with respect to uh taking up additional shares of the gwn asset that only happens with a change in the control so you you got to it's only available to us at a change in the control so when hes um sells to Chevron that's a change in control and so we have an opportunity then to evaluate that opportunity for the for the company whether we want to participate further in the Guyana asset and once Chevron has that we don't have the you know it' be the next change in control that we'd have to wait for what will determine whether you want to participate further just the value of it to subscribe to it and then how that fits within our our opportunity set all right well we'll be in touch then about whether it does Darren Woods thank you so much really appreciate it |
cz3vIFMo6jU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz3vIFMo6jU | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia unveils Blackwell generative AI processor | there's no memory locality issues no cash issues it's just one giant chip and so uh when we were told that Blackwell's Ambitions were beyond the limits of physics uh the engineer said so what and so this is what what happened and so this is the Blackwell chip that was Nvidia CEO Jensen Juan unveiling the newest GPU from the chip maker as he just mentioned called the Blackwell chip now what's interesting here Josh is that it's actually two chips kind of married to each other um pushed together it's definitely more complicated than that but in my language it's two chips pushed together here uh TM tsmc is going to use uh this technique that they they have called the 4mp to produce that product but because it's so big you kind of see Jensen Juan pointing out the size of this kind of super chip here uh it's going to require a unique production technique and I'm curious about who is going to benefit from that obviously tsmc to start out but the other players in the space are going to have to get the capabilities the manufacturing and production capabilities to produce this chip moving forward if they want to continue to win when it comes to the chips production side of the story yeah and Blackwell um you remember this is the successor to nvidia's so-called Hopper which has just helped supercharge nvidia's Top Line the flagship from that lineup is the h100 that we've talked so much about um Co Jetson Wong is saying that these new black Blackwell chips are the engine to power this new Industrial Revolution um also Nvidia is saying here they expect Blackwell adoption by a number of of it looks like big names they're calling out Google and Dell and meta and AWS you know we talk a lot about Nvidia for good reason um mad because it is simply the face of this boom of interest in AI they are the number one leader in AI training chips and there is competition we were just talking to Dan Morgan and obviously when you see a stock move like this you can expect competition so it's Intel it's AMD and very importantly nvidia's own big customers those those big cloud Giants the hyperscalers as well right and of course we're going to see some of those names moving up already seen broadcom and Intel up just to kind of bring it home for people though in terms of what this means uh Jensen Juan did kind of mention what this will look like in practice saying that instead of the AI tools kind of recognizing an image for example you're going to be able to potentially say to an AI tool make me a video of Josh Lipton and I and GRE Yahoo finance and it'll be able to do it so just bringing that extra juice and power to these AI tools that we haven't necessarily had prior to this I think you get you get I mean one we're only one hour into this K know you have a whole another hour of Jensen Wong so we'll see what other news comes but I think already you're kind of seeing Bulls come on the show Madison and when they kind of pound the table for NVIDIA often what they'll talk about is some of what we're seeing right now is they'll say listen it's chips it's software what he's doing really is building a platform yeah absolutely makes sense |
1wyypdfN5CA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wyypdfN5CA | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia unveils AI GPU chip: 'There's a lot of good news about the stock,' analyst says | synopsis is nvidia's literally first software partner they were there in very first day of our company synopsis revolutionized the chip industry with highlevel design we are going to Cuda accelerate synopsis we're accelerating computational lithography one of the most important applications that nobody's ever known about in order to make chips we have to push lithography to limit that was Nvidia founder and CEO Jensen moments ago he announced software Partnerships just before unveiling a new GPU chip called Blackwell at the GTC event joining us now is covis trust senior portfolio manager Dan Morgan Dan thank you for being here to react to some of this news uh what do you think the investor reaction should be right off the bat to the news about the Blackwell chips introduction here well I was actually watching the uh telecast like you were earlier before I came on the camera and uh you know I think everything so far has gone very positive it's pretty much in line with expectations Madison you know thought process coming into this they were going to introduce a new line of Chip called Blackwell um they also mentioned the grace Blackwell 200 which is more advanced chip they have a whole new family of chips coming out he also talked about the superior technology in this existing chip over the current Hopper 100 which is the h100 so it kind of leads you to believe that this is something that's going to replace rep place the current chip that's out there right now so I think what we have to gather from this Madison and Josh is that we've had a lot of announcements recently from a lot of different companies about new Chips AI chips that they have coming out and I think what we're seeing is NVIDIA kind of punching back with their new and greatest technology you have to bear in mind they have about 70% market share so these other guys are playing catchup and so they want to show they're not just going to sit back and let other companies like AMD and and so forth come out with chips and not respond back so that's what I think this is a big part of and I expect uh you know them to continue to maintain that that pull position right now how much Daniel you you look at this stock and just what a remarkable rally it's been Dan it's up about 80% already just this year how much good news do you think we're pricing in here well there's a lot of good news Josh and the stock trades at a very high multiple obviously when you look at the trail if you look at it versus upcoming fiscal year 25 it's it's not a huge multiple but you know at this point uh you know I wrote a piece who's going to be the first one to three trillion is it going to be apple or excuse me Amazon or Google or Nvidia and I think you'd have to say right now Nvidia is in the better position just from a growth perspective so uh even though I expect the comparisons to kind of slow down a little bit in terms of what they have been over the last four quarters I still expect them to grow at a very strong rate so um you know Josh when you got a great stock like inidia just got to kind of let a run everybody wants to find that sell point and get out and find that perfect moment but I I still think you got a ways to go so me let me ask you could you some folks have I'm sure you've heard this they look at the Run Nvidia hat and other just AI related names The Surge Dan and and you've heard this um this reaction that it's a kind of classic stock bubble uh do you believe that Dan what's your response when you hear that well I don't believe that Josh because if we look at it's a company that we can actually see tangible evidence that AI is directly impacting profits and there are few other companies that we can say that about like today we had the announcement with uh apple and uh alphabet and the Gemini AI engine and so it's kind of hard it's a great announcement sounds really good but how are we going to par through that where are we going to see actual Financial results um if you think about Josh I've been in this business since ' 87 so I went through the tech bubble back in late you know 1999 2000 summer of 2000 and it doesn't feel anything like that today because you have companies that are obviously have very good earnings they're doing very well they have very established businesses lots of cash on the balance sheet so I don't feel we're in a do or ai.com Bubble at this point I think we're at the beginning of something big and uh there are going to be companies that aren't going to benefit from it as much as everybody thinks they are but I think Nvidia is one that is going to benefit and obviously that will show up in the stock price well talk to me about what stocks we can anticipate Rising off of this news throughout the course of this week we're seeing synopsis up unsurprisingly a little over 3% here Nvidia though a little bit flat which is a little surprising to me here I'm curious what stocks our audience of investors on the Yahoo finance platform should be looking at throughout the rest of the week to sus out how this news is landing well Madison obviously you're going to get a boost to AMD we know that they have Mi 300 a mi 300X that's their latest AI chips that they recently brought out also a lot of people won't talk about Intel but they have the Gandhi 3 which is actually going to be rolling out pretty soon they have Falcon Shores but they have some chips coming down the pipe you have Marvel obviously with their Pam DSP 4 chip that's obviously going to should benefit from this we know that um broadcom reported a couple weeks ago and they don't have a Pure Play Chip but they do have accelerators and other products that are AI related so those would be some of the chip players that I would expect to really benefit from the Nvidia news coming out kind of names that we know about and then you know Madison and Josh we switch it over and we look at companies that are currently developing their own chips you don't really think of alphabet but they have the tenser uh chip what they're developing with uh broadcom so you have a lot of these companies that are buyers of chips AI chips that are in the process of developing their own chip meta for for example has two chips they just released a couple months ago uh that they're developing in the AI space that they would use as an alternative to let's say the h100 for NVIDIA so you have kind of a force of the chip competitors and then you have companies that use the chips that are developing their own AI chips that should benefit from what's happening with Nvidia so it's kind of a two-prong attack Dan always love having you on the show thanks as always for your time and insight |
K8MSDBqLBMA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8MSDBqLBMA | 2024-03-19 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How the energy sector can use Generative AI to solve problems, Palantir's Babin discusses | [Music] you're watching Yahoo finance I'm Julie Hyman and of course AI has infused everything even the energy industry I'm here at the Sarah week by S&P Global conference in Houston Texas where the industry gathers to talk about all of the pertinent issues and of course AI is on that list and so my next guest perfect to talk about this issue that's Matt Babin he's head of energy and natural resources at paler Matt thanks for being with us appreciate it thank you for having me so I was talking off camera with someone earlier today who said he felt that the energy industry was perhaps not as far along when it comes to AI as perhaps some other Industries would you agree with that assessment why and kind of how how do you get them up to speed yeah um I think i' disagree with that assessment actually um maybe we take contrarian takes to a lot of things at paler but I think the energy industry has been using artificial intelligence and machine learning for over decade they've just been using it in a different way than than we're speaking of it right now if you think of things like deterministic models and Reservoir simulations High Performance Computing centers the energy industry has been using that technology for a long time what I think is interesting is the proliferation of speed of development of what we're seeing now in large language models in gen AI pieces is causing the energy industry to think of using technology differently right um I think the energy industry moves sometimes on longer Cycles right a boom or bust of the commodity takes three or four years procurement can take a year uh information security reviews can take six months in the last year we've had GPT 4 Turbo Vision aramco announcing metab brain that's four huge large language models all in the space of one procurement cycle and so where I think the energy industry can move faster is sort of experimenting at adopting some of these new technologies in an accelerated fashion um how do they you know you know how H and how is geni specifically going to be you know pertinent to them or helpful to them yeah I think it'll be different for different companies and I think that's probably the first big trap is that some people are looking at AI as a tool and then finding a problem and I think the companies that are doing this successfully are finding a particular problem they want to solve and then looking to technology as a lever to do that so perhaps that's that you want to reduce your power consumption in the field or you want to better track your emissions profile and mitigation uh you want to have fewer suppliers or fewer supply chain interruptions those are all great places where you can use Ai and machine learning and bound models to solve problems but that all starts with finding the right problem rather than just saying you're going to use a technology now in terms of who you guys are working with I know you've worked with BP for quite some time as a client Kinder Morgan another that you're working with so can you just give us a couple for me the challenge with AI is always wrapping my head around concrete examples of what it is doing right now can you give us a couple of examples there's two classes of problems that I think are are the best fit for this technology right now um and both involve bottlenecks so how are you using technology to get through a bottleneck the first one is on context so let's say that I'm a petroleum engineer working on an asset and I'm trying to answer the question of is my asset producing as well as it can well what does well mean there does it mean as many barrels of oil as possible does it mean as little water does it mean lower carbon does it mean lower cost of Maintenance it could mean any of those things and those all pull different data sets at different times from different tools you can use a large language model to help answer that question right and that enables you to then solve different objective functions at different times the second type of problem is one around um capacity so let's say that my job is approving some element of a process I'm approving invoices I'm approving utility bills that I get for my assets in the field I'm evaluating Pig runs in a Midstream company for integrity issues right those are all things where again Ai and a large language model can help me triage those more appropriately I have a limited amount of bandwidth and capacity I want to put my smartest brains on the hardest problems not on procedural problems and how do I use AI as a triage tool to get through those more fast more quickly interesting so you've talked about what it can do for energy companies what is the energy opportunity for Palante here how big a business is it now and how big do you want it to be yeah um we've been in energy for over a decade although a lot of people don't know that from from uh the the beginning you know I think our Technology Building on what we built for the government at the very beginning sort of a real real focus on privacy on data protection uh in the government context that looks like civil liberties for commercial entities that looks like data protection and and security we're most successful in highly regulated Industries right where you're not you're never going to turn to a blackbox model and say I'm going to drill this well because a model told me to I'm going to approve this patient for treatment because a model told me to so so if you look at our our largest commercial industries of heavy manufacturing energy and Oil and Gas Utilities and Healthcare those are all heavily regulated Industries where decisions really matter um you know the energy industry is is one of our three or four biggest sort of planks of our commercial business but I think it's very small compared to what it will be a year 2 years 5 years from now and when it comes to these energy companies you know from what you described helping them with these large language models helping them with AI are they collecting the data and then you're helping them on that side of it or are you also helping with some of the data collection at this point we never do data collection um we never own data we are never a data owner data broker data seller uh our customers we provide them software and they use that software to interrogate analyze and make decisions on their own data they own that data they own what we call the onology which we think is sort of the most important point of you know a large language model knows nothing about your business large mods are fascinating pieces of Technology but if you are Exon or BP or Kinder they don't know your business and they don't know what you're trying to do the ontology is what binds that large language model to those nouns and verbs of your business uh but customers own all of their own data |
RJrQ3jp58bk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJrQ3jp58bk | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed will have it's initial rate cuts mid-year, with 3 cuts in 2024: Analyst | uh treasury yields we were just talking about seeing little change as investors are looking ahead to the fed's March meeting our next guest says that yields are re-calibrating for higher for longer reality with the market now pricing in less than three full rate Cuts this year for more on fixed income we're going to bring in truest fixed income managing director chip huy chip thank you so much for joining us I know that you were probably overhearing our conversation here with the 2-year treasury notes yield climbing to its highest level this year so I want to get your take on that movement that we've seen today when does that start to bite the broader Market yeah it's great to be with you this afternoon thanks yeah I think that what you're seeing is yields recalibrate for three primary reasons right one we continue to see sticky inflation data really all year last week's PPI was was no exception that feeds into number two which means that the FED is likely now having to be on hold for longer than the market was anticipating right and holding rates at these restrictive levels uh for for longer than was expected coming into the into the year and we're also contending with really strong treasury issuance right the US government is probably going to issue roughly two trillion dollars in new debt this year that's a lot of Supply but I do think that the biggest the biggest factor for yields has been the FED pric in six to seven rate cuts for this year coming into 2024 and as you just mentioned in the previous in the previous segment that's down to actually below three now so that's a big change that has real implications on the yield curve and Chip I'm just interested when do you think you know the FED starts cutting and how deep yeah I think I think that the the FED is going to have that sufficient amount of evidence that inflation is cooperating around midy year so I think that the FED has its initial rate cut around the midpoint of this year and ultimately lowers uh lowers the FED funds rate two additional times so three rate Cuts uh as as we progress to the year ultimately totaling about three Cuts in 24 and Chip just to follow though you know you've he this kind of um kind of growing chorus from pretty well-respected Economist chip who are thinking there increasing chance of no Cuts I think of guys like Dr Ed yardeni I I think Dr Red's base case is still cut two cuts this year but he did tell client chip you know increasing um chance here there's no Cuts what do you make of that argument I think that I think it's fair that that's that's an increasing chance we just don't think that that's what's ultimately going to happen we do expect inflation to continue to cool it's going to be a bumpy path right we've seen that and so we think that the FED again will see that inflation is cooling um as as the year progresses and if inflation is Cooling and yields are in the FED funds rate is still at this level it's becoming increasingly restrictive so we do think that as inflation carves this bumpy path lower the FED will ultimately sort of Chase that down a bit lower but we never subscribe to the idea that the Fed was going to get to six seven you know rate cuts and and start back you know as of right now right start this month that was not that was not what we ever really ascribed to we knew that we felt that the the Fed was going to be very patient given the inflationary environment that we've just been through for the past couple of years very patient and definitely still kind of searching for a thesis it feels like even though they just say their thesis is that they're data dependent um having said that I want to ask you about where our audience of retail investors here on Yahoo finance should be putting their money if they want to get invested in fixed income we know that we are at an all-time high of 1 66 trillion in dividends for 2023 for those in our audience who have raked in the benefits of those dividends where within fixed income should they be playing right now yeah it's a great question I I think we would emphasize quality right right now in the higher quality areas of fixed income yields remain really productive areas like us treasuries right like tips for those investors looking for a little bit of inflation protection investment grade municipals absolute yield levels are still very productive and very attractive when you look at the riskier portions of fixed income credit spreads to us seem a little bit misaligned they're very low they're very they're very tight and we do expect to see spreads widen as the economy slows as what the FED has done continues to bite and what we see in some of the riskier corners of fixed income is fundamentals actually deteriorating and we've seen instances of default rise so we think there will be an opportunity to add credit risk into portfolios but we be patient right now and really focus on the higher quality areas I just mentioned and uh chip I want to get your take on this when I look at the yield on The Benchmark 10e where do you think that actually heads from here chip do you think we test last year's High yeah it's a great question there there is a major technical Threshold at 435 we are right there right 433 today we we're trying to test it we've tested it maybe four or five times so far this year so we're watching that 435 level very carefully if we do Pierce that level because we've not been able to do that so far this year year it probably sets up a pretty quick move up to about 4 and a half% but what we have seen is that there is a lot of international demand demand from areas like pension Funds annuity uh providers also retail investors who would would who seem to be attracted to uh to treasuries at that level we would see demand step in if we get to that point so we we do think that we set the high watermark in the 10e back in October when we went briefly above 5% and we do also think that even if we get these periods of upward moves and yields and we think that we kind of trend lower as we progress through the year as as the economy slows from really really resilient readings uh before as inflation cools and and again as the FED starts to lower rates chip it was great to have you on the show today thanks so much for joining us thanks Josh appreciate it |
I5YyhDtlAuc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5YyhDtlAuc | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Analyst says General Motors stock is a Buy: 'Balance sheet is in great shape' | [Music] it's a big noisy Universe of stocks out there welcome to goodbye or goodbye our goal is to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio and today we're tapping into the Auto industry sticky inflation and elevated rates adding fuel to the competitive vehicle Market this competition heats up for Auto Sales what's the best way to play the space well I'm here with Michael Ward Freedom at Capital markets managing director Mike it was good to see you all right so let's start with one name you do like Mike so we can call it up here the first name we're going to like is General Motors right that's a buy there's a few reasons for this one Mike so let's go over them one is we'll start here your first bullet balance sheet is in great shape Mike right and people forget you know if you looked on Bloomberg or fax set or anything and you look up General Motors it would show that they had hundred billion do of debt that includes GM Financial if you look at just the auto company GM ended the year last year with about $5 billion of positive cash so total cash less debt got it second bullet Mike let's go over this one Surplus cash expectations in 24 and 25 GM generated about 24% of its market cap and surplus cash from its Auto operations this year you're going to probably see somewhere between 5 and10 billion of surplus cash that's operating cash flow less cap spending and their current market cap is about $45 billion all right sounds pretty good final Point here Mike in your bull thesis attractive valuation how come if you look at General Motors I think there's this sentiment towards General Motors and the auto sector in general apathy is the best way to describe it the the least amount of interest in the group that I've seen in the 40 years that I follow the stocks wow that's always a Buy Signal to me General Motors right now is valued at under two times 24 and 25 on an EV to eah basis it should be trading 3 to five over the last couple years it's been trading at four plus all right so it's looking it's looking cheap based on those metrics before before they Pile in though Mike what your viewers know about risk what's the risk to the bull Cole always risks with the Autos I always tell people on the Autos they're Capital intensive labor intensive cyclical low growth highly competitive highly regulated got it if that doesn't scare you away nothing does all right so that's the bll let's let's talk about a name Mike you don't like right so a name to avoid in your opinion carvana let's go through some of the reasons here as well first reason scaled bag growth plans carvana is a great company they've created a great brand on the used vehicle side of the market it's a 40 it's a trillion dollar market and they establish a brand name what I worry about is valuation last year they got into trouble with an acquisition too much debt not generating positive cash they had to scale back scale back growth objectives it's trading as a hypergrowth company and it's not it had negative growth last year single digit growth in 24 and 25 second reason here investors you're thinking about you said inconsistently in making positive cash flow from operations they generating negative cash last year they had some one-time items have produced uh 800 million of surplus cash but this company is going to generate negative cash of a half a billion to a billion dollars this year next they have a heavy debt load and so you know to me that eventually will catch up to them final reason you would steer clear of this Mike let's talk about price volatility obtaining cars and higher marketing spend yeah their brand name is key and everybody's seen you know the the machines that they sell their cars with the vending machines uh you have to spend a lot of money marketing to get that point across when they go out to get their inventory to sell they have to buy the cars and the use vehicle Market everything with covid and shortages and everything else had caused a lot of volatility you you look at the CPI data just the other day a 1.8% decline and Ed vehicle prices is huge you're talking about prices that usually go up fractions of a percentage point they have to buy the vehicles at the market fix them up and then sell them retail that creates risk to the model a new vehicle dealer knows exactly what they're paying for a vehicle and everybody else is paying the same price if Carana get guesses wrong and buys a lemon or Ed vehicle prices go the other way they're going to be stuck paying more for inventory and make less money all right final final idea here Mike though so you got to sell on this name but what are the what are kind of The Upside risks to that call uh look it is a great brand name they establish a very good brand name if we saw flattening out in used vehicle prices we saw them get it together from an operating cash flow standpoint and they were starting to generate positive cash that would be a big plus you already saw the earnings better than expected and you had a big short squeeze it had a huge short position in the stock so between operating cash and the short squeeze I didn't see the latest data on the short numbers but I'm guessing a lot of that was cleared up with 4 q earnings got it all right so Mike let's sum this up for for viewers here so investors you're saying buy GM with its attractive valuation balance sheets in great shape and the expectations in future Surplus cash on the other hand you're saying avoid carvana amid the disadvantages it faces new vehicle dealerships it's inability to consistently generate positive cash thank you so much for watching goodbye or goodbye we're going to be bringing you new episodes three times a week at 3:30 p.m. Eastern question |
vOJ612E9vqc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOJ612E9vqc | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Occidental CEO talks CrownRock acquisition: 'It gives us more scale and cash flow' | a lot of acquisition activity in the oil and gas industry as of late especially when it comes to large oil companies acquiring more Shale an example of that accidental agreeing to buy Crown Rock for $10.8 billion in equity 12 billion total value I'm here now uh at the Sarah week by S&P Global conference with Vicky holl the CEO of accidental thanks so much for being here thank you happy to be here yeah let's I want to talk about this acquisition first of all you all acquiring crown it was announced back in December and of course you're not the only one we've seen this Spate of Acquisitions in the industry what is this all about what is the goal here in acquiring Crown Rock I think every company has their own set of goals for us in the peran Basin we had a very large position in the Delaware and that position uh was uh gave us the scale we need to bring the efficiencies of not just the proximity but the size of what we're doing there so uh Delaware Basin was fine we wanted to apply the same uh model to the middin Basin but we had a position that was pretty small in the middle Basin so acquiring Crown Rock gives us a little more scale um the scale also is in the right position so it was a perfect fit with the assets that we already had and in in addition it brought with it an inventory that actually helps to to improve our inventory by fitting into tier one of our um of the prospects that we have to to drill in the future so that was important the other thing is it does bring forward cash flow so part of the way we'll pay for uh some of the acquisition is to sell some of our um our oil and gas areas that are further out in terms of development and time so this is an acceleration of value to our shareholders improving our inventory uh giving us the opportunity to become much more efficient in the Midland and um how's the timeline looking for selling off those assets that you mentioned to help fund this transaction yeah we expect to to meet our timeline that we laid out and that's 12 months uh past timeline for the initial phase and then by 18 months we'll have everything that we need to to finalize what we wanted to do with the acquisition and should investors think of this I mean when you talk about scale you're not just talking about scale you're also talking about efficiency right you're talking about profitability of these various um Shale areas say so should investors think of this as a 1 + 1 equal 2 or some you know expon exponent of that it'll be 1+ 1 equals more than two uh because with what we'll be able to do with the efficiencies that we create will create more value um not only from that particular development but again it's the acceleration of value to the shareholders that from an MPV basis is much better now I talked to one analyst um after this transaction who talked about wondering if this is a sign accidental is moving a little bit back towards a low shareholder return phase and was he was wondering when you'll get back to a sort of higher shareholder return phase can you talk to us about how you're thinking about that if if the shareholder return that that he's talking about is BuyBacks then uh yes we will in the near term over the next couple of years we'll continue to pay debt down uh post those two years we'll get back to um repurchasing shares uh we've had a very healthy repurchase program over the last couple of years because of the fact that our stock right now is very undervalued in our view and so we think that that the two important ways to return value to shareholders are through a growing dividend which the an the crown Rock acquisition does for us and uh to repurchase shares um but also we we get a really good return on C capit employed by investing organically in our oil and gas development so those three things are the way that we can continue to create value for our shareholders um I want to talk about another big project that you all are working on and this is on the energy transition front direct air capture which is effectively pulling CO2 out of the air and trying to bury it underground sequestering it um this is something that I believe ocidental fairly uniquely is doing in the oil and gas business why did you decide to go that route versus capturing the CO2 that comes from the oil and gas processes and what's the long-term outlook for this well we've uh actually been um using CO2 for enhanced oil recovery for more than 50 years and so that's a core competence of us we know how CO2 works we know how to manage it uh we know how to to deal with it we have the infrastructure for it in the peran Basin and so for a long time uh we were trying to um capture anthropogenic CO2 from industry but that's a difficult process because when you're trying to get uh an industrial site to commit to putting retrofitting equipment on their facility to capture carbon that's not an easy negotiation it's not an easy agreement to get to and quite frankly we started back in 2008 trying to make that happen uh we couldn't make it happen with anybody and then uh we came across this uh carbon engine in technology to extract CO2 out of the atmosphere when we found that technology that was more like the holy grail for us because now we didn't have to talk to any emitters um all we had to do we and we controlled our own destiny with our schedule in terms of what pace we could develop these at and how well we could develop the um the direct air capture and that allows us to to do it when and where it makes sense to do and the other thing about that technology is that just so happens that it's potassium hydroxide that'll extract the CO2 out of the air where're the largest marketer of potassium hydroxide in the US second largest in the world and to make the mixing happen in the uh contact Tower so that you get the most efficiency and then pull the most CO2 out of the air uh you have to have the mixing hap happen in a good way and PVC will help that will be the diffuser in the tower and we make PBC too so not only did we have the Synergy with our oil and gas business of having used CO2 in enhanced oil recovery um but also um the synergies with the infrastructure that we have as a result of that and then and then the synergies with chemicals and it was like this was meant for us to do when is it going to make money what's the timeline for because it's the economics of it not and not just with direct air capture but what your Rivals are doing it's it's quite difficult actually we will um have the um the first phase of Stratos which is our direct air capture facility that we're building in the peran that'll be up starting up in mid next year we've already sold um about 70% of the carbon reduction credits for that 500,000 tons per year that we'll ultimately have um uh for that facility and that's been going well that there is a demand from from Airlines from tech companies and even from uh from a consulting company and some others that want to reduce their carbon footprint this is the voluntary compliance Market these are people who care about their carbon footprint and who want to make a difference want to offset that carbon footprint uh they're buying these credits so we will have cash flow coming in from that facility but will it pay when do you think it will pay for itself and actually get into the black uh the payout really is dependent on um on what the credits are Beyond what we've sold out today we've um we've done a a really good job and so we haven't sold them all but the the cost of credits um right now are are going going up because there's a limited number of reduction credits that uh companies can buy so I hope to be able to tell you in two years exactly what that looks like but it'sing we'll check back in with you it's evolving and going well actually Vicki Hollow thanks so much really appreciate your time here thank you |
XJ0cZjiL4Yk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJ0cZjiL4Yk | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Buffett-backed Occidental wouldn’t be acquiring CrownRock ‘if the business was strong': Lee Munson | joining us now with more on what ocidental petroleum shareholders May face in 2024 let's bring in portfolio wealth advisor president and CIO Lee mson Lee it is good to see you there so oxal CEO Vicky Hollow talking about this acquisition of crown Rock Lee uh holl saying listen this was about scale it was about efficiency it was about improving inventory what do you think Lee of that acquisition you believe it was is a smart move to make strategically and financially well the the strategy there makes me shake my head a little bit you know when you look at the timing of early December when they made this acquisition just 32 32 days prior when they had quarterly reports you know management said that they weren't looking for any uh Acquisitions that the anadara was fine and that they had two billion of synergies and so it's funny that 30 days later they bust out and say oh we're going to have to stop BuyBacks uh we're now a dividend growth story we just you know paid billions and billions of dollars for this new company and you know the the the narrative is fine you know they want to do what they've done the premier I get that but I kind of wonder if there why is it that they said they weren't going to do it and now they are secondly um all this direct air capture and the carbon capture stuff she's not able to answer the question of when it's going to be profitable you know there's this this thing in aviation it's it's called Corsica and it it it's going to be in 2027 where they're going to be buying carbon offsets and stuff this is just a couple years away so I think the fact that we were on schedule having 60% of a $3 billion buyback get done shareholders were told Hey listen we're going to be buying back we're going to be paying down debt we're not going to do any other Acquisitions in fact we're going to look in the premium Basin to sell some gas properties that aren't really key to what we want to do to fund BuyBacks and now that's just off the table 30 days after they said that was the plan a few months ago so for me this stock is a real wait and see um I understand that the CEO thinks it's very undervalued and it may remain undervalued I'd rather wait to see what happens with the price of oil we presume that it's just going to be here or go higher I'd rather see the price of oil decline if we're going to have a slowing growth this year I want to see what the effects are so I'm right now I'm out of the stock right now I love to watch it I think Vicki's a great CEO but it's a wait and see well it's interesting because I hear you really honing in on this change after 30 days and that's something that you can get a lot of Clarity on when you get the opportunity to speak with a leader what was the change in thinking was there anything from her comments that you just heard that gave you a little more clarity on that shift in movement yeah I mean I understand what they're trying to do now they're trying to you know increase the reserves what they're trying to do is you know is here's what they're trying to do they're trying to acquire stuff that they can Finance with some debt and immediately say we can improve uh shareholder value by by increasing dividends that's not what I want to hear you know I I understand what she's saying I think it sounds like a good strategy but that's not why I own the stock and that's not what I think is going to make things good move forward if the business was strong if their setup was good I don't think they would have to make this acquisition I would have preferred that Vicki said something like we weren't planning on doing this at all but we got this incredible deal we couldn't you know we couldn't resist the price the price was right redid it but it comes off like this was always the strategy and that's that's to me that's a tell that tells me I just want to take a break from the stock for a little while hey I'll get you out in this what about the fact that you know you got Warren Buffett uh carving out of stake in this one the Oracle himself Lee you know greatest value investor of all time how does that if at all play into kind of your assessment of this company oh it was one of the main reasons why I uh identified the stock was one of the main reasons why I bought it you know last year I think I might have bought some in 22 23 I forgot exactly the day I first started purchasing it but you know Warren Buff's a great idea generator right and and I think that there was a thought over a year ago that he represented a floor on the price and but the problem is is that the stock isn't moving it's not making much money they've subtly change directions of course it all sounds very good but I don't see the energy right and so you know Warren Buffett's a very very long long-term investor I again I would rather wait for the Priceless stock to start moving moving up I'd rather like to see when the share of buyback start coming back I'd like to see how much money we're wasting on direct air uh capture and to see if that's even something that's going to grow and move the needle if not it's just wasting my time I would rather have a more Pure Play so at this point I understand why Buffett was interested today I'm on my own and that has less bearing |
OrgWIYFNRog | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OrgWIYFNRog | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Supreme Court hears arguments in First Amendment case on Biden’s social media influence | Supreme Court arguments are now underway in a case to decide when government pressure to remove social media posts violates Americans First Amendment right to free speech now the case stems from the bid administration's efforts to influence social media posts concerning covid-19 vaccinations let's bring in Yahoo financers Alexis Keenan to tell us more an interesting test of free speech and influence in the digital age here yes and not the Supreme Court's first this year it's taking up this case it's about First Amendment speech protections for companies for individuals and they're talking about when the government puts pressure on social media to remove posts that were post by users now on one side of this case you have State Attorneys General from Missouri and Louisiana and also five private users of Facebook X YouTube on the other side you have the Biden Administration and this all arose back during the pandemic when the Biden White House along with the CDC the FBI by uh the surgeon general's office as well as a cyber security agency they asked these social media companies to remove post concerning covid-19 anti-vaccination uh information also uh election information and they're saying that those Express views that the White House considered harmful now the states and the users they say that that pressure from the administration converted the social media companies into State actors they say that the posts that that they were C censored there that the social social media companies basically turned into State actors because they did it at the government's Direction now the states wrote in their brief this they said the administration's officials complain that the government must be allowed to spr freely that flips the First Amendment they say on its head the government can speak freely on any topic they say but cannot pressure and coers private companies to censor ordinary Americans now the Biden Administration I want to read to you their argument here's how they put it they say so long as the government seeks to inform and persuade rather than to compel its speech poses no First Amendment concern even if government officials State their views in strong terms and even if private actors change their speech or conduct in response to those requests now the lower courts here they mostly ruled in favor of the states and the social media users who put up those posts the fifth Circuit Court of Appeals originally issued an injunction that stopped the White House from conducting these kinds of communications with the social media companies but the Supreme Court once it decided to take up this case they put all that on hold so that is what is currently being argued in the court arguments still going on as we speak ladies certainly an interesting line there between persuasion and coercion there especially if you're a government official uh considering that pressure there appreciate you breaking all that down for us our very own Alexis Keenan |
9sZrWDMZRws | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sZrWDMZRws | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Blink CEO talks 130% revenue growth in 2023 and dimmed 2024 outlook | blink charging shares trading to the downside today this comes after a mixed earnings report last week the company reducing its fouryear 2024 guidance but reporting a 130% growth in its 2023 Revenue a tough year for the company so far though its stock losing over 177% to break down what's next for the company we have Brendan Jones blink charging CEO thank you so much for joining us this morning so I want to dig into the earnings a little bit first here how much of that is a product of the the macro environment and and some of the you know some of the decisions that we've seen the major car makers make in terms of pulling back on some of their EV commitments well first we have to rec contextualize our earnings uh we we were up considerably over well over 100% year over so blink has actually experienced exponential growth from 22 to into 23 and in fact we we even saw a EV increase last year the automotive sector for EVS in the US finished at 8% uh pen rate versus new vehicle sold and in California that was 25 in February we saw it hit almost 10% so why there's a lot of news stories out there it's still we're still seeing growth across the segment and then blink of course has shown exponential growth harest Revenue uh Target at over 140 million in dollars and we believe that we're going to continue to grow in 2022 it might not be at the same level and there might be a little bit of slowdown in the growth factor but overall the industry is and will continue to grow I mean blink is a is is uniquely positioned to really be able to see you know where a lot of your clients are are expecting EVS to go whether it is in the investment in the Chargers when it's in the manufacturing um what are you finding in that right now yes things EV transition is still happening but we are seeing a rate of adoption slowing is that affecting the Investments clients are making in these Chargers no not at this time so again you know 8% moving up to 9% we also operate uh fairly significantly in Europe as well where we're seeing 20 30 and and 40% EV penetration rates across the countries were active in uh five in one electric vehicles that was the ratio globally that's going to improve over time as well so there's a lot of news stories you see individual automakers that are Contracting others that are looking to expand U so we don't see it now what's also happening is that the different fields are expanding so while the consumer segment which is primarily passenger uh cars the fleet segment is on fire and in terms of charging we're seeing a lot of activity now finally penetrating multi family dwellings uh apartment buildings garage based infrastructure and those are the segments that are growing the fastest for EV charging right now and Brendan I do want to ask you about this strategic shift from direct sales to a dealer partnership model uh most recently expected to expand in in Rockville Maryland not too far from here in DC talk about that decision to make that shift and and how you see that really impacting the greater ecosystem for Blink Well Blink is a we we're the most versatile company out there uh if you want to buy a charger from us we no problem you want us to provide Network Services we do that if you want us to come on your property and own and operate the charger and derive our income from the kilowatt sales we'll do that as well so it's more diversification for blank we're the guys that walk in and we always have a solution for whatever SOS it is no matter what we don't give up Revenue we provide a solution and we Custom Tailor that solution to whatever our sight host or client's needs are Brendon I want to get back to your comment about multi family units and where you're seeing growth there because for so long when you look at the charging landscape I mean that has been a huge void when so many Americans actually live in apartments in multif family units I mean how much growth are you anticipating there and are we still talking about you know level two expecting that these are drivers who want to just be charging overnight yeah according to most of the data out there this is from McKenzie price Waters Cooper house Bloomberg's just to name a few over 90% of the kilowatts that are going to deployed are going to be level two charger so that's the charger no matter what we hear but you know in the US the share of voice is towards the DC fast charger when the Workhorse is actually level two now what we have to redefine in this industry is what the home is and the home is not a single family home the home is a condo the home is an apartment building the home is where someone lives now working in collaboration with state and federal government uh and local municipalities we beginning to get legislation in place to penetrate condo associations garage based infrastructure even in some states now it's mandated if you're going to repave or relight your garage you have to add a certain percent of EV infrastructure to that more legislation and cooperation is needed on a state and local level to drw this but these are the vehicles of the future so we need to do the structural adjustment uh today to be able to reap the rewards later on and Brenda just quickly I want to ask about AI Investments that that blink is looking at everything from sort of customer prediction of where those needs are going to be um even in terms of the pressure that it puts on the grid in certain places what sort of Investments is Blink making in that space so we have our our CTO working hard on this top it as many other companies do right now as well so the first investment is going to be on the customer satisfaction side both on the service side at and the reaction time to making sure we're serving our customers best when either they call in for a problem or we need to roll a check to truck to service a charger in the field this is going to be the first step then we'll take AI from the sales and marketing and how to be be more responsive to our customer in terms of communications and identifying early trends of where Chargers need to be and that's that's the step we're actively working on and we'll even have some announcement we'll bring some thirdparty players on that to help us get it right yeah AI is certainly going to be key to also ensure that the grid isn't uh strained as a result of more charging absolutely as well great conversation there Brenton Jones always good to talk to you bling charging CEO appreciate your time today AB everybody have a great day thank you |
uP-5n3dc-Bs | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uP-5n3dc-Bs | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fisker stock plunges as company halts production and looks to raise $150 million | well Fisker Shares are plunging today down more than 12% there this comes after more bad news for the EV maker the company announcing it is pausing car production and looking to raise $150 million to break this down for us we've got our very own pra subber Manan o pra you look at that stock move I mean we're talking 15 cents a share at this point right six week pause what is that by Fisker and is that enough time to get their finances in order well I think it's bought itself some breathing room here with this $150 million of new funding uh coming from an existing investor to be doled out across four different tranches and then also uh According to some sort of conditions need to be need be hit in particular filing that 10K that's been delayed so I think that's that's the positive here the bad news like you mentioned is that um the company has paused production now for six weeks uh to kind of they say better align with demand they had produced around a th000 vehicles uh this year and have 4700 vehicles in inventory so they have a bit of Supply there to kind of go through um the company also reiterated to Kiko that it's in talks with a large manufacturer again uh for a potential transaction or partnership last week Reuters had said that it would could be Nissan that's who they were talking to uh we'll see but yeah I think outside of of a partnership or new fundraising or something positive it's going to be hard here for Fisker to um you know keep its shareholders happy here who have seen a massive decline in value and I think the company is is trying to keep going here and we'll see what happens with this new new funding and potentially uh a partnership and we know PR that we've talked about production delays uh plaguing fisa before but also some on the good side the things that it does have going for it it's intellectual property how well positioned do you think it is then for some of these carmakers that you've mentioned there to take Fisker on well according to Reuters there was talk that Nissan was interested in some of the other uh fiskers platforms for instance they have a eveve pickup coming in the future and a couple other smaller vehicles I think that's sort of what was exciting to them you know Nissan is sort of I don't want to say the rebooting here but they've the their current Arya EV is not sold that well and they've been offering extensive discounts and incentives to move those cars off the lot so potentially they see this as an exciting way to amp up their EV offerings which which I think and I think many automakers believe might be a little hiccup here with EV demand but potentially it's going to go that way in the future uh mid decade and a decade that's where we see more of these sales so Fisker does have some value there in terms of their um intellectual property and plus they have like I said 4,700 EVS in in inventory which the company says is worth around $200 million certainly see if we they can get into the hands of some ego buyas perhaps I appreciate you getting us up to speed there our very own PR super Manan |
r6R-9A4ct9Y | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6R-9A4ct9Y | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Fed may scale back expectations for 3 rate cuts in 2024: Investment manager | we're taking a look at stocks higher today as investors await the latest fed decision on Wednesday investors are no longer anticipating a raate cut at this March meeting so with that out of sight what should they be focused on we're joined by Eric Lynch sha Investments managing director thank you for joining us this morning so as we look at what some of the investors have been really mulling this week we know obviously the AI push keeping some of the rally elevated here but also the FED as well if a rate cut is off the table here what should we be focusing at this meeting yeah I think array Cuts clearly off the off the table uh relle because you've got really these strong CPI PPI prints persistent strong job growth yes things are slowing a bit in the economy but it's still strong and so I there's there's really no reason for a rate cut uh this week arguably even next week markets are really not pricing in the First Rate cut uh in terms of the highest probability until June uh so I think what investors need to be looking at is what's the speed of uh of these rate Cuts going forward and What's the timing it looks like you know uh heading into this uh this fomc meeting you had three cuts on the Dot Plot we may see uh that that decreased to two um you know but I would argue that we're at this point we're kind of splitting hairs yeah I mean we've had analysts on who who sort of said you timing of this doesn't necessarily matter it is about to your point um what that cycle looks like I mean are we expecting or are you expecting any significant move on the markets you know on the back of this meeting just based on what Pal's likely to say if we sort of get you know what has been uh pretty much a consistent message from the Fed chair seems like most of that's already been priced in yeah I think that's right Aiko I I you know it's what's interesting if you look at what's happening in the markets at least the equity markets you've seen a pretty strong rotation from Max 7 the technology us Mega caps into just all sorts of different areas cyclicals financials uh International small caps and so what I think that is telling you what investors are trying to tell us are that you know we need to probably pivot our attention from the macro to the micro start looking at earnings going forward because if you think about it what's really driven the the stock market in 2023 the S&P 500 was up 26% profits were flat and so now you take off immediate and substantial rate cuts off the table then the eyes or the focus is going to be more on the economy and on earnings growth going forward and I think that's what we need to start uh focusing on in these you know guidance going forward for 2024 so then Eric what would be some of the Bell weathers that you look at when you're looking at the micro story that we got out of those Q4 earnings yeah great question um you know it's it looks like it's earnings have improved so that's good um you know even though they were flat for calendar 23 Michelle they were growing 3.4% year-over-year as we ended the year guiding for something similar for q1 I think what we need to see is just broad-based uh margin Improvement margins really contracted hard uh if inflation's coming down maybe you see some margin Improvement in the consumer staples things like that uh hopefully we get some service wage pressure off uh and you still and the service companies get better margin Improvement but those are things to be looking for um I think if if the economy stays kind of on this current two to 3% GDP Trend then again you're talking about a broad-based economic growth and I think you just want to be looking across a diverse set of stocks uh in your portfolio rather than it's over concentration on the big Mega cap tech stocks names uh finally Eric you know we're talking so much about uh this Nvidia conference we got Dan Hy in San Jose today there's a lot of Hope writing on these announcements I see a big warning in your note that says be aware of AI Mania what worries you there well you know look I I think uh AI Is For Real clearly the use cases which we're only beginning to discover now are going to be pervasive and substantial that's no doubt but that's going to take a long time major technological innovation change takes a while for the productivity to uh infiltrate the rest of the economy and be seen and and profits across the board and so because of that time I think we need to be delineating between first relative second third derivative AI plays first derivative is clearly Nvidia providing the gpus um you know the hyperscalers uh renting them outs and those guys you see it reflected in their profits and their earnings you know G nvidia's year your profit growth for Q4 was an eye popping 765 per. Adobe last uh last Thursday reported investors were expecting this real substantial AI pop didn't get it uh growth was really still on par with what it was before the AI the AI introductions into its suite and so I think what we need to do is just a wait and see attitude on the second dudo stories going forward but Nvidia I don't think there's anything to be worried about in the immediate future of the cloud hyperscalers as well clearly there's way too much Demand versus Supply and they're in good shape certainly for the other still in that show State at the moment we want to say a big thank you to Eric Lynch there sha Investments managing director thank you for your time this morning thank you both |
e_RIv9O-CA4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_RIv9O-CA4 | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Yahoo Finance: Market Coverage, Stocks, & Business News | you're watching aoo Finance I'm Julie Heyman here in Houston Texas at the Sarah week by S&P Global conference it is the big annual gathering for the oil and gas industry and as we talked about earlier they're talking about all kinds of themes the energy transition the all the m&a that's been going on AI of course I'm here with this CEO of the host of the conference S&P Global Douglas Peterson is here with me great Julie thanks for being here but especially thanks for being here for Sarah you're going to have a fantastic opportunity to meet so many um so talk to us about what you see as some of the big themes of the conference and what you're more most excited to hear about as you're here you mentioned oil and gas and traditionally this was an oil and gas conference goes back over 40 years but over the last few years it's transitioned into a conference about energy transition and the themes are some people are going to talk about molecules about hydrogen and how things are changing energy transition but this is a real conference about Revolution about Innovation and how the energy landscape is going to look many many years going forward now you guys help measure how that is all working right you have different scores for companies your data company and there was a a new rule that was proposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission to try to improve transparency and Reporting some new reporting requirements put on companies having to do with climate a court actually just paused the implic implementation of that rule on Friday but I'm curious what your view is do you think that it's a good idea and is it helpful I think it's a really good idea to have consistent standards and first of all I say globally there's an organization called the international sustainability Standards Board the issb that is looking at ways to have consistent standards for disclosure about climate action around the globe and the US needs to get on board and the US actually is a member of the issb which comes from the if FRS so I was encouraged that the rule that came out was one where both the environmentalists and some of the others were against it means that maybe they're starting to hit the right the right uh balance on it but we need to have something that allows us to have Disclosure by the way about 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 are disclosing climate dislo climate disclosure today they have it in the report might be called a climate report or an impact report or something like that so this is going to allow to have consistency transparency comparability which would all be great for the markets and when you look at the energy industry in particular you know and I know S&P gives sort of ESG scores to every company a lot of the companies here are talking about the energy transition what they're doing are they actually doing it how far along are we well this is something why we're here for this conference to understand that and one of the things that we're measuring is a company's ability to meet their their transition promises uh many companies has put out a 2030 a 2040 a 2050 Target and we want to see are they going to have the ability to meet those targets and that's going to be one of the discussions here in this Con in this conference um how helpful has the IRA been in terms of helping spur um changes there helping spur money flowing into some of these new technologies also well the IRA is bringing a level of infrastructure investment that we hadn't seen in the United States for a long time and it's going to allow this concentration concentrated investment go into energy transition and it's some of the areas that are difficult to get to batteries new types of metals that are needed hydrogen hydrogen is something that's going to have an opportunity in especially in the southwest this area of the country because of the sun because of the energy that's here and so the IRA is bringing a massive amount of investment from around the globe uh things like uh B uh batteries uh for for different types of energy sources so the IRA is is a really important initiative in the US how important is this election for the energy transition and are we seeing sort of an outcome where it's going to look very different depending on who wins the presidency I don't think it will look that different well first of all there's over four million people around four billion people voting around the world this year there's elections going on all the time I don't think that it's going to have that big of an of an impact on the energy transition story I I believe that the IRA will be here to stay I don't see any reason why that would change no matter what the outcome of of the election but energy transition and climate is on on every single person's mind I can't have a meeting where we don't talk about it uh you mentioned AI at the very beginning that's another one of the themes interest rates you know there's a few themes at every meeting I go to we talk about those but energy transition is on everybody's Minds people are starting to build energy transition plans that's not going to change because of the election but are your clients asking you for advice on how to prepare for specifically here in the US each eventuality we're not Consultants so we're not giving advice we're providing transparent consistent data which so people can make informed decisions but in maybe more informal conversations we talk a lot about the elections and what some of the different impacts could be but I really don't think in the energy business that that the election will have that big of an impact because companies are already moving and they're moving fast and then finally just quickly on AI I know you um participated in a panel on this very topic what's the biggest change that AI is bringing to energy because it's not necessarily something that people think of right away when they think about AI is energy industry yeah the AI is going to bring an opportunity to completely rethink the way you use data and the way you can project forward how different Technologies is going to be used for the energy transition in addition it's going to be very valuable for the part that's difficult for any transition is the financial impact there is trillions of dollars needed to invest and finance the energy transition and AI is going to also help with that to find the most promising Investments the most promising approaches to energy but I think when you go to this molecule approach that some people are talking about you also be able to apply AI to some of that kind of study as well but big compute AI are going to be Advantage is going forward as well for the energy transition |
WcpaP3IPun8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcpaP3IPun8 | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | The biggest risk to the markets could be the Fed's dot plot this week: YF's Josh Schafer | the fed's March meeting is beginning tomorrow we will get the decision on Wednesday investors anticipating what we are going to hear from Fed chair Jerome pal and what he's going to say about the economy given the resilient econ data that we have gotten out over the last several weeks we want to bring Yahoo finances Josh Schaefer who's been closely following that and more so Josh lay it all out for us yeah I would say perhaps the biggest risk to the markets this week or maybe Catalyst if you will to the markets over the next couple days could be essentially this Dot Plot showing that the FED might cut less this year one of the key risks that some economists are flagging just overall would be it takes just two fed officials to move their projection for us to go from a medium projection of three Cuts this year to a medium projection of two cuts this given how we know the expectation for Fed rate Cuts has moved markets in the past remember the rally we saw in December when we expected more cuts it could be considered an overall risk to stocks here we're seeing getting still close to record levels we haven't had a 2% sell off in over 4 months now so people have sort of it feels like some people might be waiting for a reason to sell we've been talking a lot about that over the past couple weeks and it just hasn't come maybe the Dot Plot could be this but I will say guys I've been talking to some strategists about this and there are some people that say maybe we don't see a selloff off just one fed break cut getting taken off the table and maybe overall the story doesn't change that much when you zoom out you have have a lot of the chief investment officers that have been taking note at least of the amount of positions that are moving into cash does this kind of move that dial one way or another if we see the FED come out and say something that the markets disagree heavily with yeah Brad it'd be interesting because you'd think moving into Cash would make sense when you're going to expect rates to be higher for longer right so maybe you continue to see that theme which would be against some of the bull thesises that we see out there with there's a lot of people sitting in cash at some point they're going to want to allocate well maybe not if the FED does cut it all this year right maybe you just stay at your 5% rate and sort of play it safe but I think another interesting Dynamic that was explained to me over from the team at Bank of America just in terms of If the Fed doesn't cut BFA said that that doesn't really change their 5400 call on the S&P 500 which I found pretty interesting and they sort of pointed out that if the FED doesn't cut or even if we see this Dot Plot move to two cuts that likely comes with an upgrade to the GDP forecast right we know the economy doing well is obviously good for companies so at a high level we can understand how that might be good and then overall just at this point we're talking about 50 basis point cut 75% basis point cut some people are just saying when you think about the overall cap structure of these large companies it's not going to matter that much in the additional stat that Bank of America likes to point out which is quite interesting 75% of the S&P 500 is currently in long-term fixed debt that would mean they're not coming back to Market to refinance at these high levels so even even if interest rates are still high the companies aren't going to see it the same way the companies a lot of companies haven't fully seen it yet so maybe there're still in a good position and it doesn't really change that earning story because the economy is going to do well so maybe even if we get a sell off on this do plot maybe it's not fully time to panic on the year yeah exactly and that also just goes to the fact that this narrative that we've been talking about now this whole debate about whether or not the Market's being a bit too optimistic about the rate cuts that they are expecting three before year end it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things and that has been largely the story that we are hearing more and more from strategists and even economists right in terms of the longer term story and what we are going to be talking about 6 months 12 months from now is not so much hinging on these three rate Cuts between now and the N it's just the whole calculus I think has started to change in terms of what exactly that means the overall impact and whether or not it's going to have a material impact in the performance more broadly we went from six rate Cuts priced in and the market rallying on that and we're time to to three and stocks kept rallying through a lot of people were talking about it seems like the last week getting worried about these rate cut expectations worried about these rate cut expectations we just slashed them in half for a month and a half and hit new highs in every index yeah the market hears what it wants to hear and it's the the pacing or the timeline of those rate Cuts actually coming to fruition too I mean it seems like for the analysts or the economists out there they they put that on themselves they have their own year-end goals too that they have to report backed for the July debate the July debate is going to start after this meeting it'll be can't wait yeah get your flip-flops ready Jos thanks so much for taking the time appreciate it |
EHoVjYb0sFw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHoVjYb0sFw | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | E.l.f. stock surged 2,000% in 5 years. Here's what worked, according to the company's CEO. | well shares of Cosmetics company elf have skyrocketed in recent years up more than 2,000% over the last 5 years this comes as the company has significantly boosted its marketing spend citing the strong return on investment and if you're on Instagram or Tik Tok it is hard to go a day without seeing an elf ad joining us now is Trang aine elf Beauty CEO it's good to talk to you today on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange um you know this is a company that has seen some incredible moment raising your guidance three times in a row how much of that momentum is carried through in this current quarter and I'm curious what you're seeing in consumer habits right now well first of all thank you for having me um we're really proud of our exceptional consistent category leading growth uh our last quarter third quarter we up 85% net sales that was our 20th consecutive quarter of growth averaging at least 20% growth and I'd say there's really three drivers of that our exceptional value proposition Powerhouse Innovation and marketing engine uh and all three are working together and it's really helping from a consumer standpoint and Tang as you mentioned there you know been trading there at at the N for 20 years what do you think was the turning point though especially in the last 5 years that's really seen the stock price Skyrocket well I think uh the consistency of our growth is what I believe investors are rewarding us for the level of growth we've been able to achieve we've almost doubled our market share in just the last few years but I think the more important thing is just how much white space we have ahead of us uh we're the number three brand now in color Cosmetics nationally but at our longest standing National Retail customer at Target we're their number one brand with almost a 23% share uh almost double where we are more than double where we are nationally in skincare we have two incredible brands with elf skin and atorium uh to be able to pursue those aspirations and internationally in very many ways we're just getting started with exceptional growth internationally as well so I think it's that combination of consistent growth over the last 5 years combined with so much white space still ahead of us as we said in the intro to you um you know this is a brand that's been able to get a lot of traction with younger buyers particularly um with your ATS Ben's campaigns on social media um we've been talking a lot about Tik Tok obviously I'm not going to ask you to weigh in on what exactly DC is going to do but I'm curious as you look across the platforms what does Tik Tok offer to a brand like E.L in terms of exposure and getting to the customer that you want that other social media platforms do not well I think you know the first of all we live where our community lives so our strength the reason why we are a Pioneer on Tik Tok have our own channel on Twitch actually have the number one branded experience right now in Roblox as you look look at what is engaging our community and what entertains them and we go there and so it's very native to each platform and authentic and so I'd say one of the things Tik Tok brings to the marketplace is the ability of consumers to weigh in themselves they're no longer necessarily dependent on influencers or their celebrities to tell them when we introduce something new for example our uh $8 lip oils uh which compare to a Prestige I at $40 we get thousands of Tik Tok videos almost immediately in terms of comp consumers making comparison so I'd say that's one of the things Tik Tok brings but on the other hand because we're so Broad in our presence on different social media platforms we'll continue to live where our consumers live so if something ever happened at Tik Tok we'll follow our consumers where do they go next and I think that's really the strength of our platform and Tang I know I certainly can't step into Target without my 10-year-old trying to steer me towards uh the elf brand cosmetics over there and the skin care what does the next level of growth look like in terms of Partnerships that you're looking at really tapping into the the next evolution of growth fail well I think the next evolution of growth is continuing to execute our strategy which we feel confident we can again double our market share and color Cosmetics nationally we feel skincare is an even bigger opportunity with elf skin and atorium and international you know internationally only represents 14% of our sales where a lot of our Global competitors have over 70% of their sales and we're seeing really great residents of the brand overseas where there's almost already penup demand from a consumer standpoint well before we go into our market so I think that's one of the most exciting things for me um the company's 20 years old I've been CEO for 10 years every time I get a new candidate I tell them you're joining us exactly the right moment CU we're just getting started and I absolutely believe that you mentioned International as a potential opportunity you know what are some markets that you see a significant upside for growth well our primary international business right now is really off in two countries Canada and UK the first two countries we went into we continue to build share continue to build our ranking but one of the exciting things for me is just a few months ago we launched the brand with dug glass in Italy and quickly became their number one brand not only in the mass side but on their Prestige side and again it speaks to that phenomenon of a lot of our social feed is actually consumed outside the US so there's already pen up demand so I'd say all of Western Europe we have a good business with Nika an online Beauty retailer in India really we I we see opportunities across the world but we'll have this focused disciplined expansion strategy which I have a lot of confidence in and even within the the ranks of Elf one of the the pillars that you mentioned there in your notes is purpose talk about why that's important especially as you see some companies really not prioritizing that but you see a lot of consumers wondering who it is I'm buying from why did you decide to prioritize that well we prioritize it because it's important to our community it's important to our employees you know we're one of the first mass brands that not only offered premium quality at these accessible price points with broad appeal but we're one of the first ones that was clean vegan cruelty-free and the only beauty company that's fair trade certified and the reason why we've done all those things is that's what our community values and so it's really important for us as our purpose if we stand with every eye lip face and paw is we really want to make sure that we're enabling people to express themselves for people to empower and embody our ethics and it's working it definitely resonates with our community and they in turn reward us in terms of not only the products they buy but the company that they love certainly appears to be working I appreciate you taking the time to join us this morning Tang Amin elf Beauty CEO thank you for your time today thank you |
iPbdOhYvezI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPbdOhYvezI | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Don't underestimate the Great Wealth Transfer, Sallie Krawcheck says | investors shifting Focus this week to the FED decision that is on tap to come Wednesday after their two-day meeting concludes so what does this mean for your portfolio investment and wealth management company elvest recently crossed $2 billion in client assets under management that AUM and CEO Sally croch joins us now great to have you here with us so going into this critical fed decision to perhaps set up what the tenor may be for the rest of the year what most notably would you be listening for and and Advising other investors out there to pay closest attention to yeah um well first of all thank you for having me it's uh great to be here uh and at levest we we are not Traders uh we don't tend to look at the shortterm moves um and construct portfolio is off of that we tend to look towards what the longer term returns of the equity markets the bond markets Etc um are projected to be and have been um and advise clients to let us set that in that uh allocation for them let us rebalance for them when it makes sense and in particular uh make sure to have if you can a recurring deposit into your investment account so that as the market tends to be very dramatic very focused on short-term things can show volatility our clients will be um investing in the market in good times and tougher times and averaging out to uh returns that historically have been pretty terrific I'm curious Ellie just given the fact that we are at record high given the fact that we have had so much talk about Ved Ai and what exactly that is going to do in terms of changing that long-term Dynamic not only for the market but obviously for the economy as well how is that conversation then changed amongst your clients and what you are hearing from them in terms of what they want to see and and how they want to be positioned at this point yeah um you know there there is a lot of curiosity around Ai and the opportunity um to transform the economy and to get the returns from it but also recognizing that a lot of these big waves um have made people a lot of money and have lost people a lot of money you could have perfectly foreseen you know the railroad the the um you know the railroad uh being built across this country and lost a lot of money by investing in the wrong companies you could have perfectly foreseen you know the automobile industry uh becoming so strong and lost a lot of money doing it crypto you could have lost a lot of money there and so that's why diversification is important uh getting access to investing in places that are are hot but also you know those contrarian Investments as well and having the balance of those things and having the diversification is what folks look like to be honest you know amongst our clients what they tend to be interested in is a financial return as well but something that's a bit out of fashion but not for women today is investing for positive impact and there continues to be just a real interest in not only what will my money earn but what types of things is my money being invested in and what type of impact I can have and I know that's a little bit contrarian these days and and what are then the themes that are emerging in that in that type of trade in that in that theme of impact as well but again we're not trading so we are investing there for the long term which by the way every individual investor should um you know active trading tends to be a losing strategy for nonprofessional investors I mean how in the world you think you can know more than the markets do know more than all of the portfolio managers out there do no more than all the Traders out there do and that somehow you know you're going to watch you know you're read up on something and just have an Insight that everybody else missed so you can outperform the market you know is a Fool's game and so having that Diversified Investment Portfolio really has been the winning strategy for individual investors for a long period of time I I think there's one significant uh perhaps yearslong event that that you've been tracking in and anticipating the great wealth transfer what do our viewers need to know about the great wealth transfer the type of impact that that's anticipated to have it's the most of um most of your viewers don't see it coming that the great wealth transfer will occur as the Boomers begin to pass away um as they begin to hit 80 7980 this year that money is going to go to Millennials it's going to go to genes it's also going to go to women and that's in part because women live six to eight years longer than men do when you ask men who's going to benefit from the great wealth transfer only a teens perent say it's women um and the massive change here really cannot be underestimated as we we have the feminization of wealth as women have more money in their hands they become more confident um they use their money differently they invest their money differently they spend their money differently than men um they give their money away to a greater rate uh and tend to give it more to organizations that support women and girls so we could see a massive shift here as the women's longevity does what lean in and the other movements did not which is get the majority of wealth in this country into the hands of women and that is a trend worth betting on Sally just lastly while we have you is there one major theme or one major uh perhaps campaign item or policy that we could hear leading up to the election that could shape uh and securitize that great wealth transfer uh well look I think finding ways for individuals to save more and invest more for retirement uh finding ways for uh women to have more of a social safety net uh particularly as women have more money in their pocket and it won't be this this presidential election but in presidential elections to come uh giving money to and supporting politicians who support um you know uh policies that support women and their families you know if I could have one it would be mandated paid parental leave which pays for itself immediately that's not you know on the horizon anytime soon but think about is women get more money and therefore donate more money to politicians give more money you could see this thing shift really dramatically over the years to come Sally croch LVS CEO thank you so much for taking the time today thanks for having me |
1wK_dgWX5mI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wK_dgWX5mI | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | How homebuilders have kept up with robust demand for new houses | from the latest read from the National Association of home builders showing that the sector continuing to recover which companies are best positioned in this environment we're now joined by Reef jadrich who is the BFA Securities senior home builders analyst first just wanted to get your takeaway from this latest reading as Builder sentiment rises above that break even Point great that thanks for having me yeah so what we've seen so far this year is that going into spring selling new home demand has stayed relatively robust despite that as mentioned mortgage rates have stabilized but they are still elevated home builders have been able to sell homes by first using rate buy Downs um which is helping to to drive demand um but also they've been building some smaller homes that help solve the affordability buyers the affordability challenges for buyers so generally a pretty strong starts of the Year going into spring selling for for home builders is that a trend that you expect to continue Reef yeah so we have a proprietary indicator for new home sales um and generally it's showing that that you'd expect a recovery through uh through 2024 um despite again the higher rates where we're seeing Tailwinds is we still have really strong demographics and that's Millennials entering the the Home Market uh boomers are actually still the the biggest buyer of of homes and they've been benefiting from a wealth effect um and then you're you're also generally seeing just just favorable job market and and um a strong economy um so all that is is helping offset the the higher rates and tight affordability right when we talk about the the fact that new homes uh accounting for more of the overall homes sold here are you expecting that to happen again and I guess what is that percentage that you're expecting to see of new homes accounting for overall home sales so if you look at active listings in the US historically uh it's about new homes are about 10 to 15% of the total active listings right now that's up to 30% of the active listings on the market that are new home and that that goes back to a point that you made earlier um there's just homes few uh homes that are in the resale Market that are being listed um and that's we expect that to sort of continue in a in a similar Pace right now 80% of of people that have a mortgage on their house are below 5% which is well below the six six and three4 rate that's out there right now so the disincentive for people to sell their house is very high um so we would expect that that the the majority of listings to or at least in the 30% range of listings to remain in the new home side if we see less rate cuts from the FED than anticipated on the back half of this year how will that impact some of the buyer activity that you're anticipating to emerge I it's it's what's really interesting what we've learned um is that even just mortgage rates stability has brought back buyers into the market um so even without seeing mortgage rates come down we've seen pretty robust demand heading into spring um and just stability on the mortgage rate side has given people confidence to come back into the market so you don't think I guess talk a little bit more specifically about what you expect mortgage rates that level to be at where we are today compared to where we will likely be then at the end of the year if the FED doesn't fat Cuts because I think a lot of people are asking how quickly the rate on the 30-year mortgage will go down if we do see the FED cut so there there's two factors driving the mortgage rate right you have the 10-year treasury yield which is it's it's partially set off of um and then you have the spread of of of of the mortgage rate above that um mortgage rate volatility is a Big Driver of that spread um and what we've seen is that that mortgage rate Vol has started to come down and compress a little bit so as mortgage rate volatility comes down you know right now the spread is almost 300 basis points mortgage rats are nearly 300 basis points above the 10-year treasury yield uh we would actually expect that to start to narrow um generally we our our mortgage back security team expects mortgage rates to kind of settle in the low 6% range about six and a quarter um and that's with the 10year it's with two uh uh Fed rate Cuts this year and then just lastly while we have you at at what price are we anticipating a material Delta in how the average price shifts as as we kind of move into the buying season this year versus what we saw last year the interesting Dynamic that's happening in the housing market is new home prices have come down about 10% from the peak levels while existing home prices haven't come down at all um we think new home prices have generally stabilized at these levels with mortgage rate stab um overall we expect kind of a a low single digigit increase in home prices in in 2024 and generally that's just driven by the stabilization or even decline in mortgage rates later on in this this year all right Rafe jish Bank of America's Securities senior home builders analyst thanks so much for joining us here Rafe great thanks for having me |
ZWcBWhCnX40 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZWcBWhCnX40 | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Homebuilder confidence rises in March | right we want to get to some breaking news home builder confidence Rising once again in March hitting 51 that was compared to the 48 reading that we got the prior month here but 51 that's passing the break even point the first time that we have seen a break above 50 since July it's the highest reading that we've seen since July of 2023 also marks the fourth month in a row that we have seen a gain for the index so why are home builders feeling a bit better about the landscape right now a couple of things are going into it one the lack of inventory of existing homes that is a factor that we have been talking about now for quite some time so it's driving those wbe buyers to new home construction almost the only game in town at this point also the fact that we've seen mortgage rates pull back just a bit from the peak levels that we saw in the fall that's helping in Builder sentiment at least at this point here so again Brad we talk about the current landscape right now for the real estate sector the fact that existing homes still inventory levels yes they have improved just a bit but they are well below what we typically see when you compare it to Historic Norms home builders and picking up some of that slack as best as they can and because of that we've seen a boost here in their confidence ratings what is a conversation without homes without what the FED is doing here and we've got that from the chief Economist Robert deetz over at the nahb saying with the Federal Reserve expected to announce future rate Cuts in the second half of 2024 lower financing costs will draw many perspective buyers into the market goes on to say however as home building activity builds up and picks up Builders will likely grapple with Rising material prices particularly once again and stop me if you've heard this before for lumber so that's going to be one important commodity to continue to watch going towards the back half of this year as well |
iLLlyGFxOYs | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLLlyGFxOYs | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Why Apple’s talks of using Google’s AI engine in its smartphones is ‘a very big deal’ | apple is reportedly in talks with Google to use its generative AI engine Gemini on its iPhones this is according to a report from Bloomberg now this comes after Apple also reportedly held conversations with open AI to use its product for more on what this could mean for the tech Giants and the broader industry we want to bring in Martin Yang he's oppenheimer's senior analyst of emerging Technologies and services Martin it's good to see you so just first your reaction to this report and if it's true how big of a deal this is for apple no this is a very big deal for Apple because it it removes the newterm concern that Apple cannot Implement uh any gen functions on iPhone due to its lack of infrastructure Investments relative to other uh large teag companies and then uh I think it positions iPhone at least in the near term uh to be the go-to device to interact with large language models and so additionally Martin when you think about the fact that Google alphabet is going to pick up a potential win on this as well I mean what is it going to take for this to be successful as both of these companies would want it to be I think it will require a lot of nuance on how the large landu models or gen functions will be implemented because uh it can augment search capabilities but there are also a large number of uh applications they can use uh one example will be a similar implementation to a co-pilot for the um uh productivity functions productivity applications of from Apple um similar to Microsoft implementation of co-pilot for its office week Mar what does this tell us though about Apple's internal efforts because there has been some optimism some chatter especially over the last couple of weeks just about what they are doing how much they are investing in their own AI efforts is that maybe not as far as soman had anticipated it was up until this point corre uh we believe that there's a catchup Apple needs to do uh to build up its own infrastucture to train uh large language models uh because the short supply of uh GPU cards from Nidia and in in the maybe in the more near term I think there's a way for Apple to implement on device AIS using Apple silicon but those are not the equivalent of uh open GP gbt 4 of Gemini in the near term Martin you think about what generative AI be for the next super cycle for iPhones and for Apple specifically what type of material difference are you expecting as consumers try to get their hands on the latest Cutting Edge technology there sure I think there are a couple ways for us to get excited about the next generation iPhone with more capable AI functions number one it will be you know Siri becomes real uh really helpful to the users right now it's really handicapped um and by you know sir right now is referring to you know telling us about weather or telling us about that time sing timers um and I think the next iteration of Siri argumented by AI could be becomes really helpful as agent well help us navigate through multiple apps and then getting us real bookings for Hotels reservations and restaurants and then you know getting us you know getting us really real world applications of things we could do with iPhones um you know um where the interface becomes voice and as opposed to touch and um other controls Martin do you see this partnership drawing the attention of regulators and I bring this up because a current partnership that Google and apple have on search is already drawn a lawsuit from the Department of Justice um I don't think so in a near term because right think I don't think there's a a very strong regulatory framework around gen um so how do you define gen Market is this going to uh is this Alliance going to dominate the giant market for consumers I don't think there's any clear understanding of the market size and growth of the market just yet it it sounds like not only were they in talks with Google but they also may have at some point been in talks with open AI what would be the material difference that we might see if it was Google's Gemini versus open AI I think it's too early to um tell um from from my perspective um I think I think the uh maybe a higher priority discussion high priority items in those negotiations is you know commercial agreements you know how much Apple or Google should pay uh to win this slot um I don't think the the AI functions is um is the determinant Factor at the moment because the consumer applications on device for iPhone uh is not going to be the same as those online interfaces Martin thanks so much for taking the time here today really appreciate it Oppenheimer senior analyst of emerging Technologies and services Martin Yang we appreciate it as always thank you my pleasure |
HadPqROOKnc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HadPqROOKnc | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Elon Musk teases Tesla flying car in an interview with Don Lemon | Elon Musk teasing details about a possible flying car in the works at Tesla in combination with SpaceX his other company in a new interview with former CNN anchor Don Lemon musk telling lemon a new model of the Roadster will be a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX and we can expect quote some rocket stuff there the interview went up this morning on Don lemon's personal page after musk revealed he will not proceed with a Content partnership with lemon that included posting three 30-minute episodes a week led by the journalist here also noteworthy because the Roadster is such a small percent of the potential sales for Tesla he also made comments about the Cyber truck talking about 1 million reservations also said that this might be the most influential vehicle that we see in a 10-year time span and so ultimately that tells you exactly how much they're going to continue to lean into this cyber Tru and it's right to do so it's just a matter of at what pricing too because that's going to be critical for a market where we've already seen Ford lead in pickup trucks for decades at this point so the truck space is right for Tesla to get into just at a matter of what pricing and if they can deliver upon some of the lofty expectations they put out there yeah exactly and he also went on to say he called it the best product that they have a special product like you said it only comes out once a decade there have been so much interest in the Cyber truck exactly the orders that you just mentioned a million orders there for the Cyber truck what exactly that translates into actual purchases and then also beyond the initial excitement because so many people have been waiting so long on the Cyber truck whether or not sales hold up and are also able to build then in the coming years that's a huge question for investors and then the Roadster nothing too different than what he has said over the last shoule weeks but he does an excellent job and selling and getting people very excited for the new products case in point when it comes to cyber trck by the time it actually debuted so many people have been talking about it it felt like forever now there has been focus on the road which we are expected to get a little at later this year so not ruling out a flying a flying car comparing it to the Jetson I mean I think that is exactly what people wanted to hear yeah whether or not that actually happens is a whole another conversation yeah propulsion and a frunk that's exactly what you want |
CA-QuKNJoiI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CA-QuKNJoiI | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Strategist expects Fed Chair Powell to be 'a bit more hawkish' on rate cut timeline | features Rising this morning head of the fed's March meeting later on this week now investors eagerly awaiting the release of the fed's quarterly Dot Plot to give some insight on the fed's rate cut expectations optimism for an early cut is waning after recent data showed that inflation remains sticky Goldman Sachs cutting its rate cut forecast to three cuts down from four so can this week's meeting bring some momentum back to the markets we want to bring in Brent shudy he's Northwestern mutuals wealth management company Chief investment officer Brent it's great to have you here so the setup here heading into the FED decision on Wednesday of course that focus is going to be on the Dot Plot what are you expecting to hear and then how should investors position themselves ahead of that yeah so I think a lot of the rally that we've seen since late October of last year has been uh positioned on or based upon the premise that the FED would cut rates aggressively and you're right you have seen that dialed back and I think you'll continue to see that delve back I expect chair pal to be a bit more hawkish you're seeing inflation move in the wrong Direction and so last week's CPI for example you saw the median uh CPI from the Cleveland fed it pushed higher you've seen sticky CPI push higher and the services side which is so key and so vital to getting inflation lower it actually bottomed on a year-over-year basis last July August area and it's been moving higher since even when you exclude shelter which has kind of been the the flying the ointment and so to me all in all I expect a more hawkish fed and I expect the market to have some difficulty because it's been based upon a more doish fed which we've seen in the past and and so with that in mind Brent as we're kind of also lingering on every word that pal has to say in the press conference afterwards what do you think it is that the markets would pay most attention to at this juncture I think a lot of the confidence and what he's looking for and to me he looks for the data and the data as I mentioned before aren't supporting that and so to me it's it's more along the lines of what does he think what picture does he paint in the future and he's been expressing confidence saying rate cuts are around the corner and to me I think that keeps getting pushed out further and the FED Dot Plot could only show two rate hikes which I think would be kind of uh a rate Cuts I should say us saying Heights last couple years rate cuts for 2024 which I think would obviously uh be a bit of a shock to investors what do you think of just overall evaluations here we are not too far from the record highs of course a lot of the focus on the AI frenzy is going to be placed on what we hear from Nvidia over the coming days how do you see that playing into the Market's momentum here and how much is it that that is the driving Factor versus what the FED does well I think the FED ultimately becomes important because they're going to end up causing a recession and I haven't seen too many markets that do well during recessions and so that I think that's you know obviously more important longer term what path does the economy uh take uh to me the Market's expensive in many parts that especially when you see bond yields opposite that are now attractive uh and so um you know I think the good news though is that there are parts of the market that have already discounted or been paying attention to and paying heed to a recession such as small midcap stocks which I'm not suggesting won't go down if there is a recession but I think much like what happened post 20201 where you had a very similar setup with large caps drawing in investors attention people wanting to concentrate there that the next you know five six seven years that next economic cycle were much better for small mid value and even International stocks would would a major pullback Brent be more due to recession or more due to a bursting of an AI thematic bubble could be each um I think to me more so along the lines of the pullback is more along the lines of recession and I think perversely it's probably hit its hardest in those top names look um if we wake up five years from now and the same theme is out there it'd be highly unlikely that that would occur history would suggest that's not going to be the case AI is probably like the internet of the past I think we're still unknown who's going to win I think it's going to be a big theme uh but today's winners won't necessarily be tomorrow's winners and every economic cycle in the past going back to 1981 has had different leadership in the next economic cycle uh and that's where I want investors to make sure they stay Diversified because no one knows for certain what the next theme is and at least historically at the end of the cycle like we are right now where you see this blow off top uh typically the leaders of the past cycle become the laggers of the next cycle it it was really interesting there was some data out from fa set at the end of last week that said that we've reached the second highest number of S&P 500 companies citing AI on earnings calls over the past 10 years they go further and say the information technology sector had the highest number 52 and and percentage 85% of companies citing AI on Q4 earnings calls how long do you believe that continues to be one of the prevailing themes here I think I think the theme stays I think the question is who wins and so to me that's that's where every time I come on these shows and I hear the AI stuff and I hear whatever I kind of find it hard to believe in do this for 30 years but I have flashbacks to 2000 and I think you know the good news for you all is in the next you know three or four or five years you're going to be talking about something different because everything changes in each economic cycle and what was in short supply or in kind of short investor demand the last cycle becomes the next kind of thematic thing that you're going to see in the future uh AI probably stays as a driving theme just like the internet did but 01 to 07 saw very different leadership from those AI names in fact technology stocks back then were the kind of cause of the US large cap Market pushing to new highs to record highs uh in 2000 uh I want investors to remember it took 17 years for the tech sector post 2000 to make new highs it took Microsoft I believe 15 16 17 years to make new highs it doesn't mean they're bad companies they're actually great companies the internet became a real thing uh but was it already priced in and that's where I think we're at today all right well if there's any truth to what Elon Musk was telling Don Lemon in the uh interview that aired this morning maybe we'll be talking about flying cars in the next three to five years who knows could be yeah Brent thanks so much for taking the time here this morning really appreciate it |
oCCIWlcgpeU | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCCIWlcgpeU | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Stock market: Every indicator points to a 'historic bubble,' strategist says | the S&P 500 as well as many of the major averages really moving to the upside this year the S&P up more than 7% a lot of this rally driven by just a handful of tech stocks very similar to the story that we were talking about last year so is the market nearing bubble territory and how should you position yourself ahead of that we want to bring in Paul Dietrich he is the chief investment strategist with B Riley wealth Paul it's good to see you here and you lay it out pretty straightforward in your most recent note you say that people need to be aware of the fact that we are near the bubble ter the stock market bubble is about to burst is exactly how you put it so we've been seen this dramatic runup in stocks right now when you say it's about to burst what's that going to look like what should investors be doing today well I was managing money back uh during the do uh bubble and um I can tell you that the stock market can go up you know even though there are no fundamentals uh it's all momentum uh for a long period of time but when it does burst it usually bursts quickly and so that's uh what we're looking at I I I've analyzed the stock market from just about every traditional analysis that that you can do to determine whether it's overvalued or undervalued and uh every single indicator seems to tell us that we're in a historic historic bubble uh but how long it can go uh that's a good question uh because it certainly went on longer than I expected back uh in 2201 and uh you look at things like price earnings ratio I mean we haven't seen a gap between the the PE for the S&P 500 and the price of the S&P 500 since uh the internet bubble back uh in in 2000 and um and then you look at something like the uh the 200 day moving average and there's a 133% gap which is historic U that's what the that that's what the S&P 500 would have to go back to uh it would have to drop 133% from right now uh to get back to its 200 day uh moving average uh you look at other indicators and they're all the same there're they we're literally in historic territory and it's hard to look at that and say that uh we're not going to see a major major correction coming now is not the time to be putting new money into the market Paul so when things feel bubbly like this number one what is the biggest indicator that you've looked at that sent off flashing lights and and and signals and does that essentially initiate a mindset for a lot of shorts to enter into this picture too well I'm sure that every analyst and chartered financial analyst is looking at all the different valuation uh uh methodologies and uh and they've got to come to the same conclusion because there's just no ambiguity here uh it it is bizarrely overvalued in most of these things and so you're seeing the smart money right now uh moving massive amounts Into Cash I mean we saw Jeff Bezos sell eight billion dollar worth of Amazon uh uh Zuckerberg last week sold a billion dollars of of meta uh it's not that they don't believe in their companies they do they're just they know that it's just completely overvalued and if they sell it now uh they can buy back cheaper later and uh so uh the Walmart family just sold I believe 4.5 billion uh in Walmart stock Warren Buffett has sold his stocks of the companies that he doesn't wholly own a lot of them and he's created $18 billion um um cash horde so that he can use that so uh we're also looking at corporate cash and it it's historically at its high highest level ever so this is why you know you ought to maybe they know something that we don't know as average people yeah and but then there's also the flip side that a lot of people are really questioning whether or not that even signals the end of this rally that we have seen Paul I want to ask you though in terms of what is going to trigger this correction that you are expecting what is that one event that you think is going to cause this massive reversal that's a really good question and uh because most of the triggers if you look back at previous recessions were not really anticipated um you know not many people saw Layman Brothers collapsing uh and in the 2008 2009 uh we didn't see the the points that uh that brought the internet bubble to uh you know where it dropped you got to remember the S&P dropped 49% Peak bottom uh after the internet bubble and um so I I think that it could be uh a geopolitical uh issue uh certainly if oil prices go up or if if oil were you know stop being shipped through the Straits of harmo because of the houthi rebels that would increase inflation the FED would be forced to raise rates that could be a trigger I think another trigger that's quite possible I is um is basically the refinancing of commercial real estate there's like trillions coming up in the next 18 months that need to be F refinanced 70% of it's done by Regional Banks and if you look at Regional Banks they're not as well capitalized as the twoo big to fail uh Banks and all you need is uh you know a couple of them just not you know not having the capital uh if there's a run on the banks uh because of the uh uh some of the problems they're having with the real estate that they they're they have financed and uh can't be refinanced so these are possible things I see this uh if we do have a recession I see it as a very mild recession uh very similar to to the recession in 2001 and two people forget that was a very mild recession we had two quarters of negative GDP growth where we never even went down 1% uh but the the thing that people don't understand is that the stock market can really go down in a mild recession because because the dotc bubble was so big yeah uh and it ran up so high um basically you saw a 49% drop well uh in the S&P 500 well yeah Paul I mean we're we're I got my praying hands Emoji ready that we don't see some of those exogenous events here we're going to be tracking it extremely closely as we know you will as well and any of the market implications Paul Dietrich who is the B Riley wealth Chief investment strategist Paul thanks for taking the time this morning |
pNMXKr3ZGXM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNMXKr3ZGXM | 2024-03-18 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | AI and shoplifting: How retailers are fighting shrink to increase profits | Jus and from Target they announced plans to close nine locations one big issue from retailers this past quarter theft commonly referred to as shrink you've seen these viral videos showing flash mob style Smash and grabs that theft is hitting profits at some of the biggest retailers including Target Walgreens and Home Depot mentions of organized retail crime on company earnings calls went up by 43% from January through August of 2023 one of the buzz words on those calls was shrink an industry term to describe any hit to inventory shrink related losses hit 112 billion doar in 2022 organized retail crime isn't just impacting margins retailers say the theft is more violent now than ever in response they're doing what once would have been Unthinkable partnering with their direct competitors to use an AI driven heat map that'll enable retailers to share realtime crime data with each other all in the hopes of stopping theft before it hits any store but if theft Creeps in anyway AI powered surveillance will be listening in this is what's next in retail theft [Music] prevention we've got what we call the engagement lab can we take a look absolutely all right let's get in here it's the only place in the world like it all of this is really um but they can see almost 400 different Technologies in the same place that's Reed Hayes he's the head of the University of Florida's loss prevention lab which has taken in more than 400 anti theft Technologies from dozens of companies customer service is on the way to your aisle to help you immediately the lab evaluates how effective the tech could be in the real world we set up the simulation or Sim lab as we call it to allow us to do more rapid research and learnings we put active criminal offenders in here we put Shoppers we put employees and we can look at different areas and we can do it much more rapidly and we do it without disrupting the actual store Reed and his team are funded by the university and by the loss prevention research Council that's a group of nearly 100 of the most recognizable retailers they pay an annual membership fee of $6500 per year to access Reed's research what is the next big technology that retailers have gotten really excited about when they visit the lab really artificial intelligence AI computer vision that can spot somebody that might be concealing Goods obviously bringing a firearm or a cutting instrument into the store they're interested in AI that can pick up screaming glass breaking gunshots but also helping us analyze activity at a more macro scale using mapping and AI Reed says he's using AI powered mapping in a way it's never been used before and in a way that encourages retailers to collaborate with their biggest competitors the redder that they are the hotter they are the more crime risk in that area the map uses AI to predict future crime events by pulling in data from as many sources as possible from law enforcement to the retailers themselves that data creates hot spots on the map which participating retailers can see the next step equipping stores with two-way radios and an app that'll automatically notify managers if a crime happens at a nearby store could something like this prevent theft from happening at all it better it should the theft problem is a difficult one to quantify one report from the national retail Federation attributed nearly half of shrink for 2021 to organized retail crime the NRF later retracted that claim in Congressional testimony one Economist said organized retail crime is responsible for just about 5% of total retail inventory losses where do you think the disconnect is in that data what we do is we look at retailer data so if we rely on Public Information law enforcement information um that's very inaccurate not their fault they only know what people tell them retailers say it's hitting company profits in 2022 Lowe's lost nearly $1 billion more than 1% of their net sales Target projected a nearly $500 million hit all due to shrink and retailers are paying up to try and stop it one survey showed that more than 52% of retailers say they're spending more money on theft prevention and for good reason over 60% of people called their most recent and experience with locked cases the primary tool for theft prevention inconvenient 20% said they'd rather order online than wait for an employee and that's a problem for retailers that are already competing with e-commerce that's why retailers are increasingly interested in giving the customer more autonomy through Innovations like face ID technology I put in my cell phone number I would get a code to my phone and then I would type in that code here and now the case is open but I have to give up my cell phone number that's right but think about how much we give up online we give our name our address our credit card number all these all this information phone numbers email just to buy online could this eventually be face ID technology yeah that way you can say hey here I am I'm not in a database of stealing from here it opens for you I don't know about you Reed but I've had to wait for an employee to come unlock a case for me before is this a way to get around that it really is but what we're doing specifically is trying to get them to use two hands to select the item it's like a you know kind of a carnival game we got we're going to create a little bit of friction right so you're not having to find and wait for an employee but it's going to be make make it a lot more difficult to steal it when locking up items isn't enough some retailers are turning to additional forms of surveillance body cameras have become a lot more prevalent in law enforcement but we're seeing retailers use them as well I'm wearing one right now talk to me about how the use of a body camera can both prevent theft but also increase safety right so we'll put Safety First here and the body warn cameras is designed to do just that to create a safer environment in these enclosed spaces for the employee and for the the consumers right and so that's why they started in law enforcement was to civilize behavior is a term used in criminology that the wearer and the others in the environment realize are on camera and probably will temper their behavior a little bit maybe back it down so we don't escalate or can we can deescalate and it also documents situations as well and finally you can use the video from the body one cameras for training I'm curious about the Ripple effects here because it's not just the stealing in the store it's also the reselling can you talk about what your research has shown you on that sure I mean that that's part of it right there the people are stealing for themselves some of them are stealing because they're embarrassed to buy but we're seeing this surge really in stealing the convert stoling Goods to cash it's become a lot easier to do that online in certain neighborhood places like barber shops and beauty shops or bars or clubs um so I think that that's a big part of what's going on so you look at those aftermarkets because they create an artificial demand for stolen goods a lot of goods right so that's been something that you now have to address all right how do we look at those theft demand centers that create that demand those fences if you will um as well as the offenders their groups and networks the tools that they they use and things like that so we're looking at all that before and after we call it left and right of bang um as well as what we're doing while kinetic in that store to make it harder riskier and less rewarding for the thief I noticed that one of your members is a third-party reseller you could say have you noticed an increased appetite from thirdparty sellers to work with retailers to prevent this problem absolutely um companies like Shopify eBay uh real real uh Amazon and it goes on the dots for the retailers themselves that sell a lot of goods they're all here and they're all at the table together and all working to figure out how they can collaborate cooperate with each other cooperate with law enforcement at the federal state and local level so yes that's all going [Music] on to find better Solutions retailers are coming together at events like the nrf's annual Big Show in New York City that's one of the biggest retail conferences there I caught up with Reed again this time with one of his lab members we went down to visit Dr Hayes in his lab we set it we had an ideation meeting uh for a day or so and great takeaways from that That's Mike lamb who's done asset protection for decades working for Home Depot Walmart and just before retirement Kroger I'm seeing more of this collaboration than perhaps ever in my four decades plus of being in this space and it's so refreshing to see that that's why exist is a council uh 94 retail corporations now um and they want to collaborate and are figuring out how do we collaborate better for everybody's safety our primary ambition is is to do just that provide that safe environment for both customers and Associates and technology and AI in particular I think are going to help us along that Journey experts in loss prevention we've spoken to say the future of safe shopping lies in ai's ability to prevent a crime before it even happens the goal for retailers is to not impede the shopping experience so this is the type of Technology Shoppers won't see but it will be there listening and watching we're looking at a whole lot of other AI plays here uh picking up on what people are saying like threatening words or victim's words things like that that we think we can also map more in real time if somebody comes up and says you know give me all the cash um or get on the ground or go open the safe you know things like that could be indicators so there's all these things that we want to look at and get that information in real time to the right people would that trigger a law enforcement probably not a law enforcement response initially somebody would probably validate it very rapidly we'll have to see that right it very early days and to what extent are you hearing more about AI this year than you have previously now you're seeing AI everywhere and I think more of it is for Real uh before I'm not sure if it was really Ai and seeing it for retail theft prevention as well are you seeing that application oh oh absolutely absolutely like you know we have Technologies today that allow us to identify produce right so we understand that it's a banana or that it's a bag of apples as opposed to something else so it improves inventory accuracy improves the customer experience and oh by the way it helps us reduce loss at Kroger so the relationship we have tied to Ai and in particular in this case ever seen uh has been very valuable uh to the organization on many fronts not just not just the shrink front over 90% of us retail respondents to one survey plan to increase their AI Investments this year but questions remain about the legality and privacy of AI powered surveillance at the end of 2023 the Federal Trade Commission banned rid from using AI facial recognition technology they said R Aid's practices contributed to the risk of consumers experiencing discrimination the FTC also issued a general warning to come companies using biometric surveillance indicating that they'll be cracking down on misuse of that technology which retailers like rid implemented to curb theft and it's not just about retailers collecting information I think we just as law enforcement need to be smart about where we're collecting information from and how you know we would traditionally collect that information whether it be through legal process or not we always say responsible use of machine learning and data analytics and different you know Technologies will help us be better at our job that's special agent Mike croll who oversees the Department of Homeland Security's operation boiling point an effort aimed at fighting the rise in organized retail crime which he testified on in front of Congress HSI initiated operation boiling point 2.0 to effectively communicate the severity of organized theft groups involved in retail crime to help track the severity of theft croll's team created an AI powered tool called raven that uses machine learning to consolidate crime data across multiple jurisdictions all in an effort to find links between individual crimes so I think last year we had about a 200% increase in our investigations related to organized retail crime is it fair to say that the scope of retail theft reached somewhat of a boiling point where the Department of Homeland Security needed to get involved the threats we Face are well beyond your traditional brick-and mortar you know stealing of toothpaste and health and beauty products we're at the sophisticated networks many Chinese organizations who have taken to the Cyber realm to conduct intrusions and and other technical methodologies to to steal information to steal items and then to turn that into a profit people just want to make money how often are you getting leads from retailers every day we can no longer fight these criminal networks with one hand behind our backs we need the best tools the best data sets the best analytics the best equipment to help us you know really resolve these crimes um rather than just kind of fight them and I know one tool you have is Raven Raven is really our answer to you know coordinating consolidating and bringing together disparate data sets to help our agents be better at their job you know to find those efficiencies of scale in data analytics and data sets um so that they don't have to spend hours and hours and hours you know combing through data and emails and search warrant returns it's really our answer to to using machine learning to our benefit as retailers work to address a problem that HSI says is increasingly severe Reed says consumers privacy concerns will still need to be prioritized by retailers and law enforcement when it comes to push back I don't know that we've had any push back from a current or potential crime victim but there are people outside that are concerned I think more and more of the retailers saying we've got to safeguard our people in these spaces so now they're putting things that would arguably invade someone's privacy but nobody goes to jail based on an alert on any kind of AI technology it's a heads up decision maker and then you make the call what you want to [Music] do |
prYN3CnTLzc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prYN3CnTLzc | 2024-03-17 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Banking and AI: JPMorgan can be the 'Nvidia of banking'...they are winning: Wells Fargo | well AI has been tipped uh to be a game Cher for most Industries but banking may not be the first that comes to mind though financial and Bank Services comprised a quarter of AI spending in 2023 amounting to around $154 billion that's according to Wells Fargo who says we're just about to see that investment start to pay off Mike Mayo is managing director and head of us large cap Bank research at Wells Fargo he's the one who gave us that number and he's here with us in studio mike it's great to see you nice to be in this new modern Studio thank you so much appreciate it so you put out this um large piece of research on this and and I have to admit I'm one of those who I did not think of banking first off when you think about AI spend but I'm curious concretely what kind of changes are customers going to see and what kind of efficiencies are these Banks going to get when it comes to AI well Shameless plug for my hobby of weightlifting I have a barbell strategy we have the the Best in Class JP Morgan uh as my number two pick and the worst in-class city group as actually my number one pick yesterday we hosted a New York City conference and we had the head of JP Morgan's head of AI basically and I think JP Morgan could wind up becoming the Nvidia of banking because they are Goliath Goliath is winning they have more data than anybody else they've been at this for a decade they've extracted AI from the rest of Technology they're going through all sorts of use cases only one idea out of three makes it from Lab to production and they should see it they targeted $ 1.5 billion of benefits last year which would be a doubling from every year since 2020 and so they have the resources the spending the data the processes and the people in place and I think uh you guys reported that Jamie Diamond said this will have unbelievable potential maybe they'll split it off as a separate business line one day but JP Morgan has optionality uh and they start from a position of strength more than any other bank that's your best in-class example my worst in-class example uh the other side of the barbell is City group they've had worst in-class returns efficiency um they've fallen short of all sorts of targets and for there it's more basic um at my conference yesterday they invoked Conway's law which says that your technology architecture is a function of the architecture of your firm as a whole so city has sold off businesses now they've simplified The Firm they'll be done with their or simplification two weeks from this Friday and then that allows for more simple technology to which they can add on AI so different examples of how two firms are approaching it but for the industry as a whole it should be able to take banking efficiency toward record levels the most obvious use cases are coding this ancient cobal code you know that even I learned back when I was a computer science major you can trans transition from Cobalt code to C++ or python in a very precise manner so AI is very good at doing that and then all of us are going to have ai co-pilots to make us more productive okay so just a quick follow for you and it's a selfish follow I have to admit I'm a city customer a longtime City customer and I had occasion to call the bank yesterday with a question um and I got an automated system and man did I go down a rabbit hole so much so that I had to hang up and start over again there it just seems like there's so much lwh hanging fruit when it comes to things like customer service are they taking advantage of that as they should be once they do that simplification process you know the good thing about city is they've the bad thing is they failed the last 12 restructurings right this is restructuring number 13 I think lucky number 13 for a city everything's upside down okay but this one is different for two reasons number one they're selling off businesses equal to 10 to 15% of revenues so that simplifies them and they're going from this Matrix multinational mishmash structure to five lines of Business Services banking markets consumer and wealth and those five heads report to the CEO Jane Frasier so now when you ask a question like how's customer service well how is it in each business line so Services is the number one player in global wholesale payments so that's looks good credit cards you know they're a top three player and you see with the Discover acquisition that that's that's a value banking markets is a player and wealth is a player but they have a lot of work to do you know in consumer US banking that is a whole the wealth business that's kind of a hole that's 20% of the company so is the glass 80% full or 20% empty from a strategic standpoint and you don't have to wait forever I think this year they've given the best guidance for revenues to expenses than any other large bank if they simply meet their targets I know that's a big ask for City Group they simply meet their targets they will probably have some of the best you know year-over-year performance of any large bank so sometimes it feels like in recommending city as my number one pick I I have hundreds of pounds on my back you know and I but you've had some recent experience with that so it's okay so as long as we can lift that weight and I think they are going to lift that weight and I think Jane Frasier come two three years from now she has a risk of being fired if she doesn't improve the returns but she also has a chance to become Banker of the year how how long though do do you think Mike that restructuring takes just to play out you know I think your timeline for it I think what's underappreciated it's we're talking two weeks from this Friday and you say well no bank's ever done this Proctor and Gamble did this we have a is that is that the model you would use for this one absolutely it's like finding a needle in a Hast stack I was wandering our our research floor at Wells Fargo Chris Carrey covers consumer staples and Proctor and Gamble and I described to him what city is doing because well Proctor and Gamble sold businesses equal to 10 to 15% of Revenue Vues Proctor and Gamble went from their Matrix they C it a Thicket to six lines of business the S similarities are there so anybody who's ever owned Proctor and Gamble for the last five years take a look at City Group because there's a lot of similarities I want to Cle back to JB Morgan for a minute and the idea that it could be the Nvidia right of banking in terms of of the AI opportunity you said they have more data than anybody how do they use that data to optimize profits to optimize the business how is that going to play out well they have 500 head of byes of data and I don't even know what that means right it means a lot a lot of data and data is the fuel for AI and you do have to go ahead and use that data but JP Morgan is in a position when they deal with the business they can use that data potentially to have more insight about the business than the business itself has they can use that for predictive Behavior so you might be in the market to buy a car they should be offering you uh you know low price loans or they should know I want to buy the car before I know I want to buy the car yeah look it's cliche but it's true it become the Amazon banking okay or Tik Tock when you you know what's going to connect you to the next one what's that recommender as I had um you know speaker from Nvidia at our conference yesterday and the idea is to have a recommender who that the secret sauce what's going to anticipate what you need not just based on your prior history but based on everything that should be known about you on social media and all the clicks that you have and the audio and the video and you you put it all in there and then you go ahead and in English in our language not in Pascal or Cobalt or assembler or C++ in English you ask a question and get an answer so this will be a game Cher for the industry over the next 5 to 10 years I'm not changing my earnings models yet to the next year but I think over the next three years it's in sight and if a bank does not have a good AI strategy I would say they don't have a strategy |
xVCoD4Pn2EE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVCoD4Pn2EE | 2024-03-16 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin: Experts, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, and Michael Saylor CEOs discuss the scorching rally | the crypto yo-yo turns on but is this Bitcoin rally different or is it simply another example of Market froth we looked at the Catalyst that makes some think we could go all the way to $100,000 and some signs that there could be a sting in the tail Yahoo finance has all the action Bitcoin is the highest form of property it's the Apex property in the world and it's um it's the best investment asset so the endgame is to acquire more Bitcoin um whoever gets the most Bitcoin wins whoever gets the most Bitcoin wins micro strategy chairman Michael sailor a longtime bitco Bitcoin bull raving about Bitcoin as an investment the digital asset reaching new highs this week coming off the launch of spot Bitcoin ETS crypto related stocks such as coinbase also doing very very well up roughly 50% since the start of the year next saying that there's still a compelling upside case to the crypto Exchange we want to bring in Devon Ryan citizens JMP director of financial technology research joining us now Devon it's great to have you here at the desk with us so just first your reaction that we've seen to the massive increase in the price of Bitcoin and obviously coinbase a big beneficiary of that yeah absolutely first of off great to be here um what what we talked about we actually put a report out last night there's been 10 billion dollar of net inflows into these ETFs over the last two months we are saying that we think there will be $220 billion of additional net inflows into these ETFs over the next three years so uh the comment is that the ETFs are truly transformational for this space um what we're talking about with the ETFs is there's $25 trillion of financial advisor driven money that really hasn't been allocated yet and the ETFs open the door to that part of the market and so um of course yes when there's big demand the $10 billion is driving prices higher and then ultimately that's really good for companies like coinbase because they're benefiting both from the ETFs directly and trading those but there's a lot of interest just in crypto more broadly so their trading volumes are up over 100% uh in the first quarter over the fourth quarter um and then you know bigger picture coinbase to us is really a play on just the evolution of the asset class and so that's really I think what people have missed so far in the stock and that's why we think there's still quite a bit of upside because they're going to evolve their business model with the evolution of the asset class in terms of flows when we look at grayscales Bitcoin ETF definitely struggling a little bit I see the smile there over 7.5 billion dollar of Exodus there in the first 30 trading days is that an idiosyncratic issue for them or is that indicative of maybe some outflows to come for other names yeah I think they're really specific so there's at least a couple billion dollars of the of that you just cited that's related to some of these bankruptcy estate sellings and I think that's already generally played out and then there's also some selling from people that initially got in to grayscale because they were just playing the the trade around the the premium that uh the gbtc was trading to bitcoin several years ago and then ultimately even more recently the discount and I think there was some you know traders in that and so some of those folks have exited and then you're seeing a little bit of rotation too where you know some people have been selling that ETF and go into some of the lower fee ETFs they actually just announced yesterday another ETF structure so I think they're going to be back in the game um you potentially bringing in inflows but yeah I think of that is really idiosyncratic and then the net flow story is really wor focus on which is $10 billion every two months you mentioned the fact that you see coinbase's business evolving the platform evolving as the industry does how so and what does coinbase need to do in order to maintain that edge yeah I mean I think that's really the key story we've been framing coinbase you know it's a little bit cliche but the Amazon of crypto and what I mean by that is you know they got into buying and selling you know as an exchange realized that was the first foray into crypto that's becoming increasingly commoditized now there's still going to be huge growth in the exchange platform but coinbase is really the primary onramp or one of the primary on-ramps into the asset class so if folks want to get uh involved in payments or remittance or in our opinion tokenization of real world assets web 3 you know they have their own uh blockchain called Bas you they're going to be involved in virtually every aspect of how this industry grows uh and then there's going to be parts of this industry in our opinion that are really idiosyncratic to crypto so you know staking as an example and there'll probably be other Innovations so coinbase is going to be involved in all of that as they already are they subscription and service revenues were essentially zero in 2020 now they're $1.5 billion do I think those are going to grow a lot faster than even the exchange part of the model so that's really you know simplistically the story and I think what a lot of people have Miss that it's all about trading and uh you the Bitcoin ETF and less about these other areas and those other areas are really what's going to be what drives a revenue growth over the next decade yeah certainly we're taking a look at coinbase up another 5% today Devon Ryan always great to have you thanks so much for us Bitcoin surpassing its record high this week notching a fresh record of 73,000 after a roller coaster week for this volatile digital currency to say the least to break down bitcoin's moves for us we've got Yahoo finance is very own Jared blicker here Jared what are you seeing well another record high and let's look at the price action over the last five days uh here we did over the weekend we came in to the week at about 68,000 we took a little bit of a dip Monday and then we rallied to just short of 60 or excuse me 72,000 or so and then we we sold off all the way down to 69,000 yesterday a rather dramatic reaction it looked like to CPI but now we are back at these fresh records and just looking at a longer term this is a 5-year chart where we can see these these record highs in the rearview mirror now uh a lot of people ask okay well now that we're at record highs what is the target you have big round psychological numbers so 100,000 is a real easy target there's all kinds of ways to come up with Fibonacci uh extensions and other methods with measured moves of coming up with higher uh highs that are potential higher highs than existing prices but uh probably save that for another day what I do want to show you is what's happened in the crypto Market over the last 7 Days uh here we have binance token left for dead but up 25% got the settlement with CZ probably in the rearview mirror aloes up 14% Litecoin having a great wreak 10% so my point is it's not just the big guys like ethereum and Bitcoin uh that have been surging recently it's a lot of other stuff here and that was something that was missing in the runup in Bitcoin last year uh we did not have that broad participation now ethereum this is a 5-year chart similar to bitcoin but it has not yet taken out these record highs 4500 is the big number although it did pop a little bit above that and finally I just want to show what's been happening with the Bitcoin ETFs this is a huge new asset class and I'm getting reminders of that back when GLD that is the first gold ETF launched in 2004 very similar time before that there was not a good way for retail investors to get into gold you could own uh physical gold you could do some other things but for the most part the ETF made it mainstream this is saying here two of the top five ETFs in terms of flows this year in the United States are Bitcoin and we're talking 10 billion dollar for uh ibit that's the ey shares Bitcoin ETF and then the Fidelity won 6.2 billion these are just High numbers and in my opinion it's difficult to see it uh not not increasing from here uh there's just a lot of momentum behind the sector and so my ETF analogy remains GL is to some of these ETFs now well despite declines for Bitcoin today micro strategy shares well they're higher TD Cowen raising its price Target on the stock to $560 that's $1,560 after micro strategy increased its Bitcoin Holdings by another 12,000 Bitcoin the total holding is about 205,000 now joining me now micro strategy executive chairman Michael sailor Michael it's good to see you it's been a little while thanks for having me julan so I want to start I know that you're a bullish on bitcoin I think everyone knows by now that you see a long-term um store of value in Bitcoin and you have said that you see it as digital property as opposed to thinking it as a digital currency so if you could help me understand as you add more to the company's balance sheet what the sort of end game is for those Holdings on micr strategies balance sheet yeah well we think uh Bitcoin is the highest form of property it's the Apex property in the world and it's um it's the best investment asset so the endgame is to acquire more Bitcoin um whoever gets the most Bitcoin wins well I iame but Michael I guess what I'm trying to understand is so if I think of it as digital property and I think of analogies right I think of a real estate company that buys property and holds on to other kinds of property they may not be the Apex but whatever kinds of property I think of an asset manager that buys all kinds of different assets eventually they sell those assets in order to make profits but I I don't think that is your endg game right you're not planning to sell the Bitcoin at any point so kind of what is the purpose of it over time well um let's keep in mind the the fundamental principle what what's the use case of Bitcoin it's it's Capital preservation so if you have a billion dollars and you live in South America or you live in Asia or you live in Africa and you want the capital to last for a hundred years you're not going to want to buy a billion dollar company or a billion dollar building or a billion dollars of land in any place in Africa you're going to have to find some other form of property that you can hold for a long period of time uh let's take New York City uh developers of New York City in 17 1976 didn't have an endgame uh they've been raising Capital to invest in New York City real estate at the all-time high for 300 years if you went and talked to them today and you said what's your endgame they would say well we're going to keep investing in New York City if you've ever talked to a person that owned an apartment in New York City no one aspires to hold the apartment for a few years sell the apartment and move out of New York City they put it in their will they give it to their children and if you ask them why they say there's no better place on Earth to live than New York there's there is no place up from there so New York City is the end game uh for people that uh that want to live in the greatest city in North America Bitcoin is the endgame for anybody that wants to own the greatest property in the 21st century well I I guess that is the case but you know at is there a price at which you would consider selling some of the Bitcoin pulling out so I mean because you don't you can do something with New York City you can live in New York City you can have a business in New York City you you know what do you do with the Bitcoin besides it just gather value well um the proper real estate developers in New York City uh they're not buying the real estate because they want to live in it they're buying the real estate because they expect they want to S it eventually Michael I mean let's be honest most of the people who are yes sure some people pass it on to their children but like most of the people who are buying assets at some point want to sell the assets at a profit so I let me let me say it a different way okay people that use fiat currency as a store of value there's a name for them we call them poor okay uh anybody that's rich in the world they own property they own they own large wavs of land the royal family of England it didn't sell all of its property in central London in order to buy uh you know currency or paper money nor did the royal family of uh of Japan nor did the royal family in the Middle East in fact they they want to own the property forever I I I want to want you to imagine Bitcoin is it's a city in cyberspace that 276 blocks wide 276 blocks high 276 blocks deep about 21 million blocks now imagine all 8 billion people in the world want to live there one day they want to put their Capital there there's $900 trillion dollar of of wealth in the world as people migrate from uh from every other form of property and they assets into cyberspace you're going to see the Bitcoin Network go from a trillion dollar Network to a 10x that to 100x that and there really is nowhere else to go it is the Apex property of the human race so at some point as the value of the Bitcoin on micro strategy's balance sheet grows both because it's growing in absolute terms and maybe you're adding more to it do you at some point down the line see being able to use it to transact to invest in the business to pay out a special dividend to investors to buy other businesses we we believe that the that the highest best use of capital is to buy Bitcoin and hold the Bitcoin the Bitcoin is going to appreciate in value faster than the S&P index it's going to appreciate in value faster than commercial real estate and so there there's no point in selling the winner to buy the losers and Bitcoin is the winner and so we're just going to keep acquiring Bitcoin with our cash flows with uh with Equity or Capital raises uh any other any other uh ACC creative uh method that comes to mind um something else I've noticed as I've talked to different investors different analysts is that micro strategy is actually trading at a pretty steep premium to bitcoin itself according to one analysis that I saw today as much as 90 to 100% premium to bitcoin is that is that justified and and why do you think it's Justified right now uh an Institutional Investor that wants to buy Bitcoin has a choice of uh investing in the ETFs of which you know black Rock and Fidelity and are very well known or investing in some other company that has a Bitcoin strategy like micro strategy uh you could think of the ETFs like uh like oceangoing container ships they can carry huge amounts of capital you can invest a billion dollars a day in the Black Rock ETF so they could they could take on hundreds of billions of dollars of capital they're not going to trade at a premium but what they don't have is performance and leverage micro strategy is different because uh our Capital isn't you can't redeem our shares so it's possible for our shares to trade at a premium we're an operating company and that means when our share is trade at a premium we can either raise Capital through convertible debt or through Equity when we do that we're doing it at a premium to the underlying assets that captures uh an accretion for our underlying shareholders so following uh a debt deal where we swap the debt for Bitcoin our common stock shareholders have more Bitcoin per share than they did before the deal so another way to say that is if you want to pay 25 basis points and be one to one levered then you would buy the ETF but if you actually want to generate an accretion or a yield and not pay the fee and have leverage then you would buy a stock like micro strategy you could think of us as like uh we're like Air Freight we're Federal Express we can take you faster but we're never going to carry the same amount of capital in our payload as a super tanker or a container ship so there there's place for both of those strategies and in fact they're very complimentary I think the ETFs benefit from the existence of companies like micro strategy and micro strategy benefits from the existence of the ETFs yeah certainly we've seen um an uptick adoption with the the introduction of those ETFs um you mentioned the convertible offering um I am curious because it's not the only offer offing you've done of course you've done others as a way of investing in more Bitcoin what happens if the price goes down again precipitously what happens to the capital structure of micro strategy well you can see uh if you look at our past there have been periods uh during the crypto winter when Bitcoin went from 66,000 all the way down to 16,000 uh in that case we simply hold the Bitcoin instead of being 20% lovered we become 40% or 60% lovered um the and the way that we raise the capital is using convertible debt and so the convertible debt is an is a unsecured uh instrument it's not Mark to Market it doesn't come due except in four five or six years from the point that we issued it and uh it's not secured against any other kind of capital so we don't have to actually do anything we just wait uh for the market to recover and and that's what we did uh in 22 and in 23 we recovered and our shareholders benefited from the deleveraging as Bitcoin rallied in the other direction we're looking at how to navigate the big picture with the Yahoo finance Playbook as Bitcoin hits another all-time high how much further the asset can climb is a hot investor debate for a look at it how to play We're joined by Dan doof mizo America's senior Financial technology analyst and Matt bwig bito managing director head of go Network Dan let me get over to you uh because you've been really you've been covering these stocks for a long time coinbase Robin Robin Hood you name it whatever it is how are you telling investors at this moment stay away stay away as much as you can why uh you know it's it's a it's a it's it's in my view it's still like a I don't see the the reason for people to I mean coin I mean let's talk about coinbase specifically right they're a take rate business and and take rates are always bound to be kind of erased to the bottom and eventually uh there's going to be more competition and and and they're already getting they're already giving out pricing concession so if you in January they gave out a pricing concession for people who are trading 500,000 or above so pricing pressure is starting and competition is heating up so I think the fact that I don't believe in the underlying currency uh Bitcoin that's one thing but irrespective of that I think coinbase is is you know that minus take rate pressure in competition and I just want to quickly follow to you Dan and before we get to Matt um because you do have as I understand if I'm not outdated a buy rating on block which obviously is a a much different business but also there is a crypto tie in there so is your buy rating sort of irrespective of the crypto side of that actually you're you're making like probably one of the best points ever so I didn't even know give you this is this is a a genius comment because I'm old enough to remember that back in 2017 and 2018 uh and even 2019 the reason block or square at that time was performing so strongly was because of the correlation with Bitcoin in the last cycle and guess what it broke and the correlation the the correlation doesn't exist anymore does that tell you anything about coinbase it probably does but on on Square specifically Bitcoin is like single digit part of the revenue I mean 95% of the revenue has nothing to do with Bitcoin and that's that's the reason I'm bullish on it but by the way same thing for Robin Hood the you know I'm super bulled up on Robin Hood but not because of crypto because of everything else because of what they're doing in retirement because of their growth in Europe because of the the you know the leadership in equities and and taking share from Charles swab so this you know Bitcoin and crypto is the the least important stuff in my view now let me get you here because nothing nothing goes up in in a straight line and if investors are getting a little worried about this move in Bitcoin how fast it has come on are there's certain warning signs they need to be on the lookout for that there might be a pause in the cards I mean you're saying right now yeah sorry oh sorry I was I thought it was a question yeah goad yeah no I think look um I think you have to view this a lot bigger than than any one specific company or any one you know pullback or draw down this is a global shift in the way people think about portfolio construction I think Pandora's Box is now open entirely anybody can buy Bitcoin through their brokerage account uh institutions are starting to Pile in through the nine new Bitcoin ETFs and the flows really don't lie here there is demand for BTC as an asset um you know Black Rock through the ibit ETF did2 billion dollar in volume yesterday um you know in total the ETFs now hold over $55 billion in just their first 60 days of trading so the the flows really don't lie here and even more importantly than just some of the short-term metrics around demand is you have two of the largest you know asset managers in the world in Fidelity and black rock these are multi-trillion dollar assets that have so much clout and weight on the market and can really Drive what institutions do and how they think about their portfolios endorsing Bitcoin Fidelity the other day um you know put out basically three different core portfolios structures all which recommended crypto as a percent of that portfolio you know this has dramatic implications on how hedge funds asset managers the whole ra Market thinks about utilizing crypto in portfolios and to me this is just the early Innings of you know that transition so you know I do think sure could there be pullback and you know if things get too hot definitely um you know I think we've yet to see retail really Pile in as though they have in previous Cycles um so you know as funding rates start to become more expensive as folks require more and more leverage uh you know that that will put pressure on the market and I'm sure at some point we will have a pullback but I think zooming out you know this is really a generational shift uh in the way that you know crypto is going to be viewed institutionally uh and at the retail level Matt um what is the best way for investors to get involved if they want to buy Bitcoin what are the relative merits of buying it through one of these ETFs versus investing in Bitcoin itself yeah I think look it's gotten a lot easier to get exposure to crypto and Bitcoin over the last few years um you know I think the floodgates are now open because it's extremely easy through the ETFs so you know there's a few ways obviously you know folks need to consider one just the cost of you know some of the ETFs uh you know that are in existence you know these can be as expensive as 1.5% if you're talking about grayscale uh you know or as cheap as 12 bips uh you know if you're talking about some of the others uh other things that need to be considered are you know who's who's the counterparty right like who's actually holding the underlying Bitcoin here and if you look at you know uh ETFs like Black Rock and Fidelity a lot of them are using coinbase uh bco is also another custodian that's starting to win some of the custody deals for a lot of the ETFs um you know bco obviously is a state chartered trust entity in both South Dakota and New York so you do have to kind of look at the underlying you know who's my risk to um but I do think you know other ways to get exposure outside of this the ETFs are buying spot crypto yourself through one of the platforms out there you know that could be bitco it could be coinbase it could be some of the other exchanges like Kraken or Fidelity um and then obviously investors can think about other things whether it's you know buying volatility uh utilizing options or other derivative contracts such as Futures U and then obviously there are other public Equity proxies out there as well um you know obviously coinbase stock and micro strategy or some of the minor companies like Hut 8 Marathon so there are now a host of different ways to take exposure to the space um but I think investors really just need to think about the actual volatility asset you know the counterparty risk of who they're facing and the platform they're holding those assets on and then what are the fees and costs associated with getting that exposure so you I I would advise any investor to just kind of do their diligence in that sense Bitcoin and stock Bulls are charging a new frenzy surrounding the world's largest cryptocurrency is pushing the price of Bitcoin to all-time highs this is all things AI have powered stocks such as Nvidia and Microsoft to new heights so our major investing exchanges cashing in on all this excitement Vlad ten of Robin Hood co-founder and CEO joins me now Vlad always nice to get some time with you I know you do a lot of these interviews especially a couple weeks after earnings but I'm like I have to connect with Vlad because your stock is ring the broader Market is ring on your platform what have you know these record setting markets done to that platform and what are you seeing among people typically when the crypto markets see uh a lot of excitement we benefit from that you know we're one of the largest crypto platforms forms um in in the US um we've been growing market share and that's continued uh through 2023 I think last time I was on your show we were talking a little bit about that but um it's definitely not just crypto uh We've we've seen increased levels of activity with the markets across all of our assets and products so people have been uh entering the Equity markets uh options trading has been up through 2023 as well uh equity's market share went up about 14% options market share at Robin Hood was closer to 20 at about 19% so as we've been improving our products we stand to benefit when there's heightened Market interest have you seen the rally AI stocks crypto whatever it is is this pulling in the next generation of investors I think you're you're seeing a couple of things certainly there's heightened retail interest and you're seeing investment apps uh getting uh getting more downloads you can look at kind of the public App Store rankings and there has been a Resurgence in interest in investing certainly we've benefited from that um but what's really interesting is um it's not just uh it's not just the markets and it's not just individual AI stocks and crypto um you look at our retirement business more and more people are interested in retirement as well so we announced that we had 1.7 billion in assets under custody in retirement Accounts at the end of last year and recently our CFO was at a conference he said that number had close to doubled at over three billion just in a couple of months so um there's General interest in long-term investing as well and we're excited to be serving that market are investors still looking at Robin Hood as as a trading platform because I've been following a lot of the work that you and your team have done really over the past 12 months a lot more Innovation 24 hour trading a push into retirement products do you ultimately want to be that One-Stop destination for you know that maybe perhaps replaces going down to your local bank branch and using it for whatever you want to use it for there's three things that we're focused on right now number one uh we want to be number one in the active Trader market so active Traders are very important for us uh they care about very specific things like performance pricing user experience and we're making lots of Investments there both in the user experience and in new product innovations that other competitors don't offer 24-hour market being a great example there there but we don't want to just serve active Traders and so we want to grow wallet chair with our customers we want to help them build wealth and that's the second priority that's where Robin Hood gold and our high yield products come in that's where retirement comes in and of course the credit card where we're entering a new product category that's very important to customers then the third area of focus is expanding internationally I think the last time I was at your show we were uh we had just announced the UK launch and we had also launched in the EU and we see a huge opportunity there hundreds of millions of consumers that are underserved and that's sort of our beach head to the rest of the world what is the size of that credit card business how big could that be 12 months after launch and where exactly are you with that product one of the reasons we're so interested in the credit card Market is it's so big right um over % of us adults have a credit card at least one um there's hundreds of millions of credit cards in circulation um in the us alone and if you look at the credit card Market in general we see three things number one it's large number two the incumbents are enjoying very large margins so the The Profit pools in that business are very large and the third is it hasn't really been digitized yet so the experience of a credit card I mean sans's Apple pay is pretty much the same as it was 20 years ago um and when we see those three things we see a great opportunity for us to enter the market and and disrupt so um it's it's getting close the team's been working hard I've seen the designs and we'll be uh we'll be looking forward to unveiling it shortly V just before came on we had the um opportunity to talk to SEC chair Gary G Gensler and towards the end of the conversation they were talking a lot about crypto and the moves in crypto uh the chair noting uh that the sector is Rife with abuses and frauds and uh at some point you know maybe the investment public is putting their own Investments at risk I mean bigger picture I what do you think about this move in crypto and and do you think investors truly understand what they're getting in the crypto space right now uh I think if I had to look at this Bove it it's you know we we see uh a supply and demand imbalance starting with Bitcoin right so all these new ETFs came into the market they've been Gathering assets we're now able to more easily plug institutional interest of which there's a lot in uh in crypto and they've been they've been generating more demand you also have the the Bitcoin having where there's less Supply coming in and I think the market anticipates that I do think um the crypto space is quite broad it it refers to a lot of things now including you know just coins that a couple of software Engineers overseas can launch on an exchange and I think with that level of decentralization and sort of uh um access are risks but then you look on the other side of the spectrum and there's significant institutional interest in adding Bitcoin and and other cryptocurrencies into customers portfolios uh more and more large institutions and endowments are starting to look at it um governments you've seen uh start to look at it too um like El Salvador for instance but I think we anticipate that might not be the end of that um and and so I think that's very much entered the the mainstream as a as an asset that customers need and and look uh look to add in their portfolios vad you've been uh leading this company really through two like a a series of big moments for investors of course a couple years ago at the the meme stock frenzy but right now markets at alltime highs crypto all-time highs what lessons are you putting to play today leadership operationally whatever it might be things that you learned a couple years ago what are you putting into play now yeah I mean I uh a couple years ago felt like a different world you know it felt like we we didn't really have to um operate particularly well as a company to do well in in covid times the tide sort of lifted all boats now uh starting in 2022 with the increase in interest rates you know it's sort of washed out a lot of uh a lot of the excess in the markets and we've had to operate differently so just emphasizing efficiency for performance focusing on the things that are incredibly important making sure that the team is aligned and and we've got the top talent I think these are all things that the management team and myself have learned over the past couple of years and now when we see a little bit of a recovery and you know if interest rates then start dropping as many are predicting we should see that turn into a a Tailwind for the business in a in a big way it's always uh great to get a few minutes with you uh thank you always for making time for Yahoo finance Vlad ten of Robinhood co-founder and Co have a good weekend we'll talk to you soon thanks Brian gold and Bitcoin both reaching record levels you've got gold just around eyeing 2200 level investors becoming a little bit more optimistic about Ray Cuts this year now Bitcoin climbing above $72,000 that reaching that level for the first time ever let's talk about the massive climb to the upside what's behind this record setting rally we want to bring in Ben emmans he is the new Edge wealth senior portfolio manager head of fixed income and macro joining us now Ben it's great to have you here so explain to us and the viewer here why we're seeing the record setting run up in both gold and Bitcoin at the same time I think it's all about Supply shaa uh because you know in both cases there's very limited Supply and if you then have an let's say uncertainty which may be dealing with a little bit currently and a lot of talk about fat easing and they may go as soon as June typically that gives goals a lift up in the case of uh Bitcoin it's about this having event in April and people calculated that although the final having event is like a century from now nonetheless it's a it's a limited asset class of supply and I guess that if we're in an environment of liquidity easing and uncertainty these two assets get lift up and it's to be worth paying attention to because this is I think kind of unique year going into the election now the price of gold also as you note has an inverse relationship to treasury yield so what's the anticipated kind of knock on effect that we're expecting in correlation here as an interesting point Brad because go back to 2011 but that was a year of huge uncertainty de seaing Euro crisis lots of things going on and gold hit the first time its record high and at that moment that that happened there was a lot of the kind of treasur Ys now party it had to do with what the fat was doing part had to do with the Euro crisis but it was a kind of an interesting combination ation to see that about a decade or about later during the pandemic the similar event sort of happened record highs in gold and lower treasury yields again fat influence there but similar idea so we're back to record highs maybe going even higher and we're sitting with treasury yields that pretty much at the at the high end of that range so I'm wondering like if we're getting real uncertainty as in okay we don't know who will be president we don't really know if the economy actually stays this strong all those the kind of questions you could actually see this idea of like High gold prices low treasury yield so it's something to watch then what do you think when we look ahead just to tomorrow the very short term here the inflation print what is that going to potentially do to activity here well I think it will be somewhat volatile because you know the last inflation print there was an expectation that headline inflation would go below 3% that didn't happen since that time we've had more energy prices going up um we've also had some data out on rents we had some data out from the pce and PPI data that all indicates stickier inflation so there's an expectation that actually this this Sprint will not break the 3% and why is that matter because ultimately it's about headline right for the consumer if that were to really start declining um you know that would really change I think the perception about how how much more the fat could cut potentially beyond what they're saying now and so I think we're sort of sitting here waiting like this this number could be a little hotter given where the economy is and also what's happening with energy price plus what during the testimony came out that they're also looking at high interest rates have also risen the cost of housing which shows up in inflation so it could be a higher a hotter number in our Yahoo finance interactive across the studio our viewers can't see that but uh they keep tossing up Bitcoin from time in time out and I keep taking a look over your shoulder at that and at these levels that we're at I mean you're a very reasonable man Ben you're a m Hunter you're well calculated here how high can Bitcoin go as you think about the scarcity that you were just laying hang out a moment ago yeah that's it you know this comes together with the demand for Bitcoins from these ETFs as your col mentioned like you know $10 billion or so got into those ETFs and those managers have to buy the actual coins right it's no longer with futures or or other proxies but that relies on people who already hold Bitcoin being willing to sell as well exactly and there's been limited selling if if not any I you can have websites you could track the liquidation of Bitcoin that's very limited that's happen so far then you have this having event which again that is actually slowing the rate of Bitcoins together with how it gets produced and mind so it comes all together in one and then I think it's a cocktail of like yeah then it breaks out above the highs and how can it go well sky is obviously the limit my guess is she going to go probably like a 100,000 or so that would be your first sort of major Milestone I think don't be surprised that you actually reach that level so Ben what what is your advice then to investors out there should they tread carefully given the fact that the price of both of these assets is so volatile true because you know let's face it like the the gains are extraordinary picky for G for for Bitcoin I think they've calculated from somewhere like more than 10 years ago had bought one Bitcoin You' made like 7 million per. you know will you make the next 7 million now that's volatility obviously right so clearly wouldn't be careful but think about the long-term Prospect of the asset as well as in Gold you know why do these exist now most of the institutional investors don't really play in that space until maybe now that's I think one other force behind this that it could go higher secondly it is a diversification because if you have that high of a gain or expect a return against where Equity volatility current is which really low that is a possibility for diversification in a portfolio so that's become a more serious asset I think ever since the the SEC approved those ETF so and given the uh the institutional interest currently yeah that that's this is becoming an asset that is a diversifying asset scarce asset in the portfolio and is what's true for Bitcoin expected to be the same for ether or ethereum because now we've got applications lining up for ether or ethereum that's still a heavy topic of conversation and contention I won't weigh down that route but if we see ETFs come forward if we see more utilization come forward on The Ether side is what we've seen in Bitcoin in this runup expected to be the same there so one difference with Bitcoin with ethereum is that ethereum has Unlimited Supply because it's it's a gas right that's actually how it's created but people looking at the correlation between the two and people have always said like well ethereum is really the Benchmark for blockchain technology and that's I think the fundamental reason for the digital currency to exist is that central banks may not go all to digital currencies just yet case and point the Federal Reserve but the implementation of blockchain technology is supported by central banks and that supports ethereum so once that also gets approved as ETF you'll likely see the similar sort of interest from institutions and and Retail public to buy the ETF in etherum absolutely Ben great to see you this morning thanks so much for taking the time thank you thanks for having you Bitcoin surging to another record briefly Crossing above 72,000 you can see it just around 71,500 bucks right now other crypto related stocks are also seeing a boost from the recent rally in Bitcoin driven by optimism from the sec's approval of the spot Bitcoin ET F SEC chairman Gary gendler spoke with Yahoo finance last week about that decision let's take a listen I thought that it was the most uh sustainable path forward uh along with the commission to approve those and investors uh got additional disclosures based upon those exchange traded products uh they got certain protections on the stock exchanges but they should also I would say be aware it's a highly speculative volatile underlying asset Bitcoin all right we want to bring in Mar and labor Deutsche bank's senior Economist Marian it's great to have you here so talk to us just about the recent runup that we've seen in the price of Bitcoin you've outlined a number of factors driving it what are the biggest catalysts yeah hi many thanks for having me today so yes indeed there are few reasons why we can reach orol high uh first uh the ETF has been approved uh last January and we have more ETF coming as well we are also going probably to have like a few Cal Banks interest rate cuts which are all approaching the Bitcoin haling is become very near now and regulation is also coming this year and one of the areas where we're seeing even more kind of coziness for it is the UK and so where more globally are we going to expect some of the allowance for etps or exchange traded products for cryptocurrency and specifically Bitcoin and ethereum perhaps to really continue to fuel this rally yeah yeah absolutely I mean today in the UK dfca uh has just suff STS on sector by permitting Bitcoin and ethereum backed exchange traded nuts but we are also seeing this year more and more regulation worldwide for example in the EU uh MAA regulation will take effect in stages as well Ro governing stable coins will become enforcible starting next quarter in the US as well we are regulatory action which have accelerated despite the lack of overing rules we have around like half of the cftc enforcement actions in the last fiscal years which involved digital assets last year the SEC should bance and cond days as well and we also had the highest civil military pen ordered in any cftc which was made against a fraudulent scheme involving Bitcoin and it was equal to 1.7 billion dollar and if I look at regulation as a whole I really see it as a net positive development for the industry if we have a clearer regulatory framework which might have increased corporate adoption and higher liquidity which is probably going to Res in less concentration and ultimately it's going to help address volatility in the crypto asset space so man do you think it's likely then that we're going to stay at these elevated levels so yeah I I think uh there are good reasons why it's at this elevated level and uh it's probably going to stay to stay high and I mean if I look at the feature we just you just mentioned ETF the spot Bitcoin ETF which was approved but we have also more ETF which are likely uh coming the SEC first decision on the spot is camf application is expected miday and uh overall this evolving ETF landscape and participation of institutional players are helping crypto mature into a more established asset class and just lastly while we have you Maran the having H how much of a catalyst could that be further for for Bitcoin specifically and and does that mean that the global coin market cap as well can can see not just a rise on the back of Bitcoin but does that present a rising tide for the rest of the other smaller currencies yeah so you're absolutely right uh the Bitcoin hving which is the fourth Bitcoin hving actually is approaching in about a month now and this fouring will have the reward gain from the current 625 down to 3.125 B and if we look at the previous hi events for example if I take the more recent one there was a sizable 27% price increase in the months before the 20120 haling if we look uh at what happened in 2016 we had a more substantial 133% gain and if we look at the 2012 having Prices rose by 5% person so every time we have an ading process uh prices T to rise before around 30 days before but also slightly after theing having said that on your question about like the global crypto Market I also think it's important to this strage Bitcoin from the other largest cryptocurrency if we look at the 100 largest cryptocurrencies only six are at or near alltime high so not all cryptocurrencies are equivalent and again Bitcoin has the largest market cap and the market cap is also like three times larger bigger than the second largest cryptocurrency which is e Marian labor who is the Dutch D spank senior Economist thank you so much for taking the time here with us today thank you |
t7k7Ni2JtWc | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7k7Ni2JtWc | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | NAR settlement is an 'earthquake' for real estate industry | on the Ripple effects from this real estate commission settlement and bring in resi club co-founder and CEO Lance Lambert Lance I think we're all trying to wrap our heads around what this is going to mean here um can you sort of lay out here in your view what big changes this settlement is going to make to the home buying process yeah so this is a bit of an earthquake for the industry uh you know historically speaking how it's worked in the US for a long time is that the total commission has been around 6% a lot of markets where 3% goes to the buyer agent 3% maybe the sellers and it varies by market but usually the seller was paying that and it was taken as kind of granted that that's just how the process worked now heading forward with it no longer being uh in the MLS and it's going to be negotiated more I think there's a potential here that you know the total commission P could be decreased and I think the winner might be sellers who might get out of paining for the buyers uh agent uh and picking up that piece of it Lance can I can I ask you a quick can I ask you a quick yeah why was why was it ever structured that the sellers paid the whole fee what that uh the thinking being that anyone who's selling has also been on the other side of it buying right and so if if you're on the selling side of it and you pay both yeah maybe that sucks but when you got into the market you didn't pay for it right so that was kind of how the process worked and it's one of those things where once it became part of the system it just kind of stuck and now we're going to see you know how sticky it really is and we'll probably see the total pie uh for commissions go down that's why I think a lot of these stocks like Zillow is down uh Compass is down today uh the market kind of pricing that in uh but it's going to take a while to play out and there's probably going to be more lawsuits but the big backdrop here is that housing affordability has deteriorated to levels not seen in about four decades this is the worst housing affordability since the early 80s when mortgage rates were 18% and yes 7% mortgage rates might not sound that bad but when you take into how much take into account how much prices have risen and that incomes haven't kept pace this mortgage rate shot going from 3 to S has really strained it and so the trickle of the impact of that with uh affordability being so strained is that people are stressed and uh that stress on affordability is creating things like this where there's more pressure on to get commissions down there's more uh local push against airbnbs there's more uh you know it's going to trickle into the political system as well and you're already seeing a lot of talk against like institutional home buyers and different parts of housing just because affordability has become so strained that the it's natural that there's going to be a public push back and uh you know I I think some of the industry is just kind of gonna get pinched by that and when you when you Lance when you say you know we talk about commissions dropping here are are you able to kind of quantify that in any way I I mean I've already seen estimates out there Lance maybe 25 30% I've seen yeah it's going to take time to kind of figure that out um you know there are lots of guesses maybe it's 20% maybe it's 30% and some places it might not be much at all um so you know there's a lot of speculation there and that's what it is it's speculation so we'll kind of have to see how how the cookie kind of crumbles here well Lance I think we're also trying to figure out not just how it's going to affect people who are trying to sell buy and sell homes not just how it's going to affect sort of Realtors as an industry but of course we here like to watch public company so we're trying to figure out what is it going to mean for a compass what is it going to mean for redin what is it going to mean for Zillow um is there anything that we can say now or or what question should we be asking as it pertains to those specifically yeah there there has been some bearish sentiment that's come out against Zillow uh Spruce uh you know they just recently put them uh in the short category you know they're a short selling firm um um and their argument against Zillow is one uh what's happening to the commission side and remember that Zillow is a lead generation company they create leads for real estate agents so if the total pie of Realtors and real estate agents in the country shrinks that negatively impacts Zillow but there's another thing that's happening to Zillow and that's this company which is very Savvy co-star has come into the space they have apartments.com and now they have homes.com that's a direct competitors to Zillow and by the way they are not they're not going to you know just kind of limp in they're taking a big swing they're actually doing the largest ever real estate marketing campaign they have what like three Super Bowl ads uh they're everywhere right now so homes.com uh from one side of the competition and then the other side of the macro uh that's definitely having an impact on Zillow and look today Zillow stock is down 14% one day yeah right Lance thank you so much as always for joining the show and helping us kind of walk through a complicated topic here Lance have a great weekend |
GRsXbPYIuHk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRsXbPYIuHk | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Boeing and the FAA: 'It's getting dangerous,' aviation expert says | now with Regulators Airlines and passengers all in the eye of the storm where does Boeing go next going to take a look at the stock price reaction here because Boeing clearly under a bit of pressure with shares off just about 30% since the start of the year you can see the movement to the downside here today trading just above 182 bucks a share so we want to bring in Mike Boyd Boyd group interational president Mike where does Boeing go from here we talk about the fact that the stock has been under tremendous amount of pressure off 30% do you see more downside risk here in the near term for Boeing absolutely Boeing has relegated itself into a second place a distant second place behind Airbus with this entire Fiasco with the Max uh this has been going on now for what four years five years now uh and again a lot of it oversight we haven't had FAA oversight so this has to come into the program but right now Airbus probably is going to end up with about 350 to 4 00 more airplanes they wouldn't have had before simply because Boeing can't produce uh and Boeing can't really maintain the confidence of the airline industry anymore there has to be a complete change to the top of that organization because right now I mean Airbus I guarantee you they're looking at taking that 70 Acres they got down in Mobile and expanding their Factory because over the next five to six years those- t0s that aren't going to Airlines they're going to be a321s they're going to need that production capacity Mike Bo kicking the tires on an acquisition of spirit Aeros systems will that remediate any of the near-term problems and at least bring some of the production in inhouse fully for Boeing after they had essentially split out that group and it became its own entity years back well who cares really who owns the stock in spirit the fact is Boeing is its major not only but its major customer Boeing should have been on top of that regardless of whether they own the a The Entity or not so this is just like a placebo the fact is we've got to stop kicking tires here and we got to recognize that Boeing's problems are more than just one company this is our biggest exporter and right now today it is relegating itself to a distant second behind the only other game in town which is Airbus so if they buy Aero Aeros systems or not doesn't make any difference we have to fix that plus we have to fix the oversight the FAA was on site this entire time so uh they're not particularly clean on this either and they have to move their game up as well and thanks so much for uh for for comprehending my uh typo in spoken form there in Airlines versus Aeros systems um very two different Spirits there Mike so appreciate that you know what is the new Max head that steps into this role what should be the day one priority for them the de one priority has to clean out the uh what's gone on in in in manufacturing look as I pointed out in an airline if you fix an airplane the mechanic has to fix it you have to know who it is he signs off or she signs off then an inspector comes in and signs off what we found out now is that's not what Boeing was doing they can't tell you who worked on that airplane that Alaska had the problem with that is outrageous an airline would gets shut down for that so what we have to have is now some really strong oversight and the people at the top have to be held accountable and that has not really been done yet throwing a guy under the bus doesn't fix the problem Mike are you confident that it's actually going to happen this time people will be held accountable I don't know the fa has not done a very good job of oversight up till now let's hope they do like I said they're like Louis Renault and and the movie cassa Blanca they're shock shocked to find this is going on they've been on site all this time so they have to move their game up a whole lot more the FAA if I'm remembering correctly they are budgeting for a considerable amount more for for their own Capital expenditures over the course of this year they're looking at Air Traffic Control where would you like to see the budget for the FAA really take into account what needs to be looked at in the the the factory production the manufacturing process is that they do have people placed within for quality assurance checks yeah the fa's responsibilities are wide there's no question about it but the fact of the matter is they have oversight of what manufacturers are doing what suppliers are doing what overhaul facilities are doing they got to move that game up and boy you want to get into foreign overhaul facilities they got a whole lot of work to do so you know one job I don't want is to be ahead of the FAA but guess what someone's gonna have to take that job and shake it like a dead chicken shake it like a dead chicken Mike you've you've listed out a long uh list of improvements that Boeing should and needs to make here in order to win back the confidence I'm curious though what in your view should be that number one priority right now today we know this oversight of Boeing has not been acceptable that probably means oversight of a lot of overhaul facilities may not be acceptable it may mean other areas of the fa so they got to clean up their game uh you know again Boeing's responsible for this but the FAA has to be our guy on site to make sure that we don't have any more of these Max fiascos or these Alaska fiascos that we had what are you going to be tracking Mike to understand what the mindset of the consumer is while they see headlines like this coming across you know it's getting dangerous you mean there was a period back in the 1960s when the locked Electra started to fall out of the sky and people literally were calling Airlines see am I on Electra or not I don't think it'll get to that but if this keeps going because remember if the if there's a Boeing airplane with so much as a lavatory that doesn't work it hits the headlines is another Boeing problem so Boeing is behind the curve here but the real curve here is fixing this problem as quickly as we possibly can and having the FAA being able to assure us that they are on top of it not now but going into the future all right in our conversation with some of the booking sites maybe we will have to ask them how many people are filtering based on that that might give us a little bit of an indicator as well in the intern period Mike Boyd always a pleasure to speak with you get some of your insights Boyd Group International president thanks thank you sir |
_8I5N798ks0 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8I5N798ks0 | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Higher-for-longer rates could be a headwind for stocks: Analyst | well let's talk more about the broad outlook here as stock sliding today setting up Wall Street for a weekly loss as investors weighing the impact of those hot inflation prints Focus now turning to next week's Federal Reserve policy decision and the Dot Plot expectations that the FED will hold off cutting rates till June how can investors play a more patient fed for more let's welcome in Ryan mitrione Ken family office Investment Management partner who's with us in studio thanks for being here thanks for having me so this is the big question that a lot of people seem to be wondering and I have seen some analysts and economists start to say even if the FED doesn't cut this year stocks will be okay what do you think I think that's entirely possible I mean the market has priced it in and and is hoping that we start to Trend in the right direction but right now the economy is strong right I mean we have um the employment Market is incredibly strong we got jobs that are you know staying reasonably strong on employment rate is near historical lows consumers are still spending so we're in a really you know strong spot and as long as the economy stays strong the market should stay strong now if the FED were to move too quickly and cut rates too soon and then have to reverse course if inflation started to Trend back up that would be a concern for the markets so so you think the risk is weighted towards the FED cutting too soon rather than waiting yes I think also the FED has I mean they've been very clear that there was you know they're going to be patient they're going to be data dependent they're looking at what's happening and you know the last couple months the inflation prints have been a little bit hotter than they probably want to see uh but they had always essentially said it was probably going to be the back half of the year and that's that's still what we expect that we'll probably have two to three more but it'll really be dependent on what we see over the next couple months I think do youan also you know you're seeing a number of strategies kind of expect given the the rally we've had they're saying listen at this point we're kind of overdue for a pullback pullback generally defined is you know drop somewhere between 5 10% are you looking for that and if we saw that kind of pullback would you see that as a buying opportunity I mean we've certainly had a strong start to the year right I mean we're up you know 8% is on the S&P uh it's been a strong start I wouldn't be surprised to see a little bit of rockiness um especially with what we had this week with inflation or you know Tech has been very extended we've seen that broaden out some um but especially if we think rates are going to stay higher for longer that could be a headwind for some of those shares um we are still pretty fully allocated right now as far as our Equity allocations uh depending on how much of a pullback it is we may view it as a buying opportunity but if we just get you know a 5% pullback I think we're pretty comfortable with where we stand today well and then I guess the question is are you participating in the pullback in other words you know th the runup that we've seen in Tech have you been sort of lightening some of your allocations there absolutely I mean after last year was such a strong Market I mean especially for the Magnificent so especially looking at those Mega cap Tech names um we have been taking some of those profits off the table we still have a full waiting as far as Tech goes but you know pulling back some of that overweight that it had grown into and looking at other areas that are just more attractively priced right now like what what would those other areas be so I mean we're keeping a pretty balanced allocation between growth and value so taking some of that and maybe allocating to um Healthcare and Consumer Staples Consumer discretionary areas that are just haven't really parti I ated nearly as much um to balance out the portfolios and then what about on the fixed income side as well right because um there we've seen this run up in yields that's been happening recently but we know a lot of investors still have money parked in things like money market fund so how are you thinking about that area yeah it's I mean now versus a few years ago I mean we you can be Diversified you can own fixed income and actually get something out of it you can even own cash and money market and and at least get some sort of yield so we have um we are pretty neutral our Equity targets and our fixed income targets after being you know overweight equities and very underweight and defensive on fixed income for some time um we are you we've added back into bonds um and shifted that out to more of an intermediate duration from being more defensive on the short end uh so we we have our our clients pretty well Diversified but we still we're still constructive on the equity market and you know we're going to be talking Commodities late later in the show and some of them had just this incredible run gold you know record highs here have you participated in that all do you own the metal or the miners um we do through some of through some of the managers that we work with but we don't typically have a direct allocation there um we invest some in the in the real assets on the private side um but that would be more on you know more real estate I mean how closely though are you watching the Commodities more as sort of a macro indicator even a headwind and especially as they play into the inflation story too well absolutely and that was you have kind of that last year that don't fight the on the commodi story um but this year it's switched a little where you know we have energy prices coming back up and I mean energy stocks had been you know they're they're still at a discount they're still very attractive on you know and we've seen Energy prices and oil prices come back up this year so it's um certainly been what was factoring in this week on the inflation that we've seen energy was a big piece of that and it's definitely something that we're looking closely at as far as what could come further down the pike this year and I admit I must have I have energy on the brain because I'm actually about to go to Sarah week which is the big annual oil and uh gas conference that happens in Houston every year and you know there's been a lot going on in the energy industry a lot of m&a um but you know as an investor why own the energy is it about um Capital return to shareholders is it about I mean I don't know how much growth you're looking for from the industry how do you think about that group uh I mean there are different ways to to look at it I mean you can look at it as a diversifier something to be a little bit different from the other asset classes that you own um you can look at it as an inflation Edge um and you can look at it you know we invest some in the MLP markets you certainly can earn some income there which is great and that's been a great place over the last couple years to be invested all right man thanks for coming in for apprciate it |
mq_1hDcT5hg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mq_1hDcT5hg | 2024-03-16 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bayer CEO: Roundup is 'safe,' and litigation is driving prices up | shares of the German conglomerate buyer or Bayer have tumbled by more than 50% over the past year that's in part because of thousands of lawsuits claiming cancer risk tied to Roundup weedkiller it's a product that Bayer acquired as part of its purchase of Monsanto back in 2016 and Bayer has been taking steps to streamline the business and try to look beyond that litigation CEO Bill Anderson recently said that now is not the time to break up the company that's something some investors have been calling for and Bill Anderson the Bayer CEO is joining us now to discuss as we talked about it's Bayer here in the US it's buyer in Europe same company just so focused on what we're talking about um Bill thank you so much for being here yeah great great to be here so for investors who are looking at the company and looking at the longterm that you've talked about where is the growth going to come from you have three main business lines in terms of crop Sciences Pharmaceuticals consumer where should they be looking for growth yeah um there's there's two really obvious places uh one is our our crop science business we're the world leader in agricultural inputs so we sell our inputs to the farmers they grow the food and and we all get to eat it right so um yeah we're the world leader in in R&D in agriculture as well and we're growing above the the core rate of growth there last year our Core Business in agriculture grew 7% and we expect to keep growing faster than the market based on uh well 10 new Blockbusters that we're launching over the next decade including right now we're launching short stature corn which is going to change the look of corn Fields Forever um that's um that's the most obvious thing you see but having shorter corn allows you basically to grow more corn on the land and to avoid the that the corn gets blown over by heavy winds and so it's it's great for Farmers it's it's great for food prices also consumer products our consumer products division has had very steady growth um continues to grow faster than that market and and that looks to continue as well in Pharmaceuticals we're in a bit of a transition phase we've got a couple major medicines that are losing patent protection over the next few years and so we're busy rebuilding the pipeline right now so that's not so much a growth story today but we look to return to growth in the in the second part of the decade and as you're kind of rebuilding that that Pharma pipeline bill is that you know any more clarity there is that is that R&D is it Acquisitions both it it's going to be some selective Acquisitions but more on the earlier end the the simple fact of the matter and and you see every day large Pharma companies trying to buy late late stage or in market products that the challenge with that is you generally have to pay more than they're worth and uh you know call me oldfashioned but but I I don't like to pay more than something's worth we do deals typically in Phase zero phase one and then we we have a very effective development engine and we can we can accelerate development it means you have to be a little more patient so we're definitely more for the patient investor and in that's because in the meantime you are dealing with this litigation risk and I wonder if you can talk investors through whether you feel you've adequately provisioned for the eventual costs of that litigation yeah I mean it's a complicated topic because you can only provision for things that are you know that are relatively certain to occur um given that we think we've adequately provision and we test that every quarter with our Auditors um the key thing on on litigation is we've been fighting it out in the courts and we' win more than we lose but the losses at least the the headline figures can be quite large I mean we generally get damages reduced more than 90% on appeal but the fundamental uh fact is that glyphosate Roundup is safe um every regulatory agency in the world has concluded that including the US EPA including the European Food Safety Authority and um and and we're also pursuing beyond the courts we're pursuing legislation to clarify that because it it just doesn't make sense in our country and this is really a uniquely American problem that manufacturers can be sued when we have you know safe product and it's clear in our label so this is this is something that we're U definitely escalating the the um yeah the work in this area from a from a litigation standpoint but also from from a legislation and public affairs standpoint this is this is bad for American consumers I know you've been talking about inflation today so 30 years ago Americans paid 11% of their paycheck for food every month okay up until about 5 years ago that that had dropped from 11 down to 7% today it's 11 again so dramatic food inflation and everyone sees it when they when they go to the grocery store and and our products keep food inflation in check but the the litigation is is driving costs up for farmers and and this shows up in the in the food prices and Bill if you had more clarity though on on the litigation if you got that Clarity would those strategic options perhaps be back on the table selling or spinning off businesses yeah the the way we look at it is right now we have um we have some challenges we mentioned we got to rebuild our Pharma pipeline we need to deal with litigation this is not a good time to be sort of breaking up the firm um there's a compelling argument for Pure Play companies and we have mult you know we have three divisions we are we're implementing a new system for running the company that puts decision making in the hands of the people doing the work it's a radical thing I mean we're taking out not not taking out a layer of management we're we're cutting layers of management in half in many places um span of controls goes from five or seven to like 20 okay it's a very different model this is something I've been doing for about seven years it it can lead to dramatically uh improved results we're going to do this and focus really hard on it for the next two to three years and then we're going to come back to that subject and and say Hey you know have we earned the right to to claim our own destiny by creating you know a a a highly efficient and effective economic machine bill um when you look at those changes you've been making internally in the company it's something you guys call Dynamic shared ownership combine that with the glyphosate sort of overhang like what's the vibe like inside the company how hard is it to change the culture how are people feeling with that's a lot of change in a short period of time yeah well obviously the litigation is very frustrating to everyone because people just feel like it's not fair it it doesn't make sense we're a scientifically driven company and we have this litigation thing that's not scientific um that being said people have I would say a spirit of wanting to serve the mission and our our mission is health for all hunger for none because we're in healthc care and Agriculture and um the the morale inside the company is remarkably strong it it amazes me I think it's a testament to the human Spirit but it's also because as I mentioned we're we're putting decision- making with the people doing the work so that's been well received that that's very well received in fact most employees are saying hey how fast can we do this you know I I want this and I experienced this in my previous jobs when you when you put decision- making in the hands of the people that are doing the work that's a novel phenomenon in a big Corporation and um they like it because they're responsible people they want to they want to have a bigger impact they don't want to be stuck in a hierarch with you know the boss having to approve everything Bill thanks so much Bill Anderson of be thank you so much appreciate it |
SheT0f6O4OQ | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SheT0f6O4OQ | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Commodities are a pure 'supply and demand story,' analyst says | well with less than 15 minutes left until the closing belt on Wall Street we're looking at how to navigate the big picture with the Yahoo finance Playbook some of the biggest moves in the market this week have been in the commodity space Coco pric is extending their record run topping $8,000 per metric ton and checking on the metals as well copper hitting its highest level in nearly a year and also there's oil oh let's mention that as well because it's closing up more than 3% this week despite edging a little bit lower today joining us now to break it all down Blue Line Futures Chief Market strategist Phil streel and path trading partners co-founder and chief Market strategist Bob aino guys it's great to see you thanks so much for being here good so obviously there's a lot of Commodities out there we've been seeing a lot of action so if you're an investor and you want to get involved here you know it's kind of a tricky thing to try to figure out Bob I want to start with you is there anything that can be said about Commodities sort of large or do we really need to drill down and talk about each one individually well I think individual is valuable and Phils really good at that but I I just on a broader sense you are talking about something that is really a pure supply and demand story and I think that escapes a lot of people you're not going to have CEO scandals with commodities uh you're not going to have missed earnings with commodities you're talking about how much is out there what does the supply picture look like and what does the demand picture look like and that's all it is now while it can get complex with uh different sort of geopolitical volatilities especially in the place of crude oil we're talking about crude oil that comes into play quite a bit inflation with gold interest rates with some of the metals including copper the bigger picture is supply and demand how much is there and who wants to buy it so Phil let's bring you in here too and and dig deeper into a few different areas walk me through Phil I guess to start how you're thinking about the energy complex Phil and and oil in particular here highest level here since November uh what's driving Phil and what do you see ahead yeah so building on what Bob brought up and it's a great Point here you look at crude oil you look at the demand and the resiliency of the US economy has helped support the demand we've got driving season right here and any kind of interest rate cut could really be a Tailwind for the crude o Market if you get some of this loan some of this debt burden behind us with lower interest rates people are going to have more money to spend and they're probably going to do it the easiest way which is travel so we're starting to see 2024 demand increasing and we can see upward revisions in 25 and 2026 you look at the supply side of things we saw Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries that could impact some of the Russian exports we've also seen surprise draw Downs in eia inventories of 1.5 million barrels this week taking the yearly decline down to 33 million barrels so you look at the bigger picture things like on the supply side inventories are sitting at 446 million barrels versus the 5year average of 528 so one other thing that Bob didn't bring up was price momentum that also plays a big role and you want to see those prices really moving in the direction that outlines and maps with the supply and demand picture and crude oil prices look like they can go up to about $85 right now um so Bob do you agree I understand your long oil and I would ask where you're expecting it to go and also how you think the best way is for people to play I mean you're a sophisticated investor in this stuff right so you're probably looking at crude oil Futures Etc yes for normal investors should they be looking at ETF should they go to the Futures Market what what's best well I always advise people that you know the the thing that's 100% correlated to crude oil is crude oil so the best place to play with that or play that out I should say we don't play in investing is WTI Crude that's my favorite but for the average investor you can look at Uso that's one of the ETFs people just generally default to and for example looking at sibo news feed which is new product from them I'm seeing that Uso is projected to be lower than their average daily daily volume but the activity is on the call side of things so to Phil's point about price momentum and he's right I did leave that out and it's very important uh my target on this was 8250 Phil says 85 so I'm probably going to move it up to 85 now on the WTI but the Uso thing is very important because your average investor is looking at that when the activity is to the call side that means the market makers are going to be slowly buying up Uso if the volatility Rises one thing about crude o o volatility in the equity markets we generally associate that with a down move volatility in something like crude could go either way in a spike in volatility which case the calls would be active then could come on an up move and generally it does because we get a big Supply disruption like Phil mentioned aack on oil producers that can cause Supply disruptions and bring about volatility Phil let's let's get you back in I want to switch gears here a bit talk about gold Phil which which has also been making a lot of headlines and for good reason strong run Phil it's near record highs what do you think is driving that Phil um and what do you see ahead and how are you if at all playing that yeah the metal the miners both yeah when it talks like gold right now I mean we saw prices stall out right at about $2200 we've come back from here we're digesting you know higher inflation data also a very very good economy right now and those are things that prevent fed chairman Jan pal from cutting interest rates and we've seen those interest trade expectations decline here recently so I think that you know gold needs a lot right now it needs more clarity as far as the first interest rate cut it needs to close over 2200 to reignite the Bulls and it needs you know Bitcoin to stop stealing the Thunder of all the ETF inflows so one thing to note on gold is that it's always the timing the pace and the depth of the interest rate cuts and then finally a study back from 1990 shows that after that first interest rate cut after an upward cycle gold has on average rallied 6% in the first 30 days so keep that in your back pocket yeah are you are you willing to ride it there Bob as well given some some of those factors that Phil talked about yes so I had an interview at the end of 2022 where I called gold my uh most likely trade for 2023 I bought it in November of 2022 and I still have it and I have physical and I've been in and out of the Futures Contract from the long side so the reason I like gold here is because a lot of things to happen for gold to go lower in a meaningful way and what I mean by that is the Fed actually has to Pivot people like to talk about gold as an inflation hedge it's not If the Fed is active Okay because if the FED is active against inflation they're hiking rates and that's negative gold but if you have a Fed that is poised to be either neutral or doish this one I would argue is dobish right I don't think the FED should cut rates but I think they're going to Gold will likely benefit from that as Phil described so if you get the FED pivoting because inflation is refa which I think it's going to then Gold's going to be in a little bit of trouble but I think we're going into a reflationary environment meaning higher stocks higher commodity prices higher inflation and higher gold and the FED is not likely to Pivot to tighter monetary policy stance so I like gold here as much as not as much but because it was cheaper in 2022 but I like it here for at least the first quarter of this year and feel we can't talk uh kamis here without getting your take on Coco Phil uh this one has just been surging hitting fresh records Phil what is driving that and and what do you see ahead any end in sight here I don't know I mean it's a pretty volatile contract you had a 9% move today that's a 700 Point rally in Coco that's a $7,000 move so again from a risk management standpoint you got to have a plan in what percentage of your Capital are you going to have at a risk this Coco story has been something that's been developing over the last few years really since the Ukraine Russia conflict because a lot of the pesticides a lot of the fertilizers came from Russia the Ivory Coast was shut off so that crop has been behind the eightball for a few years now once you saw the news break that those forward contracts were being cancelled you had to know that companies like Nestle and other you know Coco utilizers are going to be scrambling and get any kind of near-term Supply there was something a little bit off on the price action yesterday where you looked at the deferred contracts they all close lower so the squeeze is really on the first you know four months out here but that's a contract you know Bob's probably got a better way to play on that with some ETF or something because there's not a mini there's not a micro contract what percentage of your Capital you want to be at risk you might want to just let this one go and just uh you know stock up on some Cadbury eggs for Easter or something stocking up on cadar eggs never never a bad recommendation Phil Phil Bob thank you guys both for joining the show today have a great great weekend you as well thank you |
P9Fx3NVXIlk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9Fx3NVXIlk | 2024-03-16 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | American workers are becoming more productive: BOA Analysis | American workers are becoming more productive this coming from recent Bank of America analysis showing the average revenue per worker for s&p500 companies hitting an all-time high for more we're bringing in Yahoo finance's very own Joshua Schaefer Josh yeah Josh so obviously the overall takeaway there would be if companies are making more Revenue per their employees that they have that would just be considered a good thing right companies want to make more Revenue because growing more revenue is eventually going to help you make more money I think there's sort of a broad simple takeaway there but diving into the economics of it labor productivity has been a big topic for a lot of economists in the past couple months and a large reason that that's become such a big part of the conversation is when you look at wage growth so wage growth just came in at 4.3% in the jobs report last week it's still significantly higher than where economists think the FED would want to see it economists have estimated that that number should come down to maybe 3.5% to get us to that 2% inflation Target but the key to labor product and why it matters so much is when labor productivity goes up you can have higher wage growth because higher wage growth right if we think about this from sort of a simple economic standpoint if I'm making more money I'm willing to spend more on Goods right so Goods prices would go up but if we're making more if labor productivity goes up too then we have both supply and demand rising and for those of us that took economics 101 that would mean that prices can stay the same right so it would not be an inflationary problem there's also another part of this productivity story were just it might help company margins and I think that that's something a lot of strategists were highlighting that that's why Bank of America was pointing this out this was part of their S&P to 5400 for the end of the year call and sort of their overall ESP EPS story so connect those dots first then how do you get from better productivity to S&P 5400 sure yeah so a part of it is because simply you're going to make more money and then you company as companies you get to decide what to do with it right so it could directly just go into a margin boost and you could see margins go up as productivity goes up or there's sort of another side of this too that BFA was highlighting which is interesting where if productivity is going up and your top Line's going up you could also invest more back into your business and increase capex right and Bank of America in our chart of the day I'll shout out our chart of the day from the yaho finance morning brief newsletter that we had this morning but Bank of America was pointing out that the capex increases that we're seeing from Microsoft Amazon meta uh Nvidia You could argue but really the cloud companies so I shouldn't include Nvidia in that overall the capex spend that we're seeing there is going to help the rest of the economy because what does it take to build more AI in these companies and build more Cloud it's going to take more energy right it's going to take more old economy they BFA basically lays out a case that these old economy companies companies in the utility sector companies in the energy sector they're capex takers when these big tech companies want to spend these other companies benefit from that so it's good for Tech which we know is always good for the stock market we talk a lot about tech stocks going up but it's also good for other companies and that's how you get to S&P 5400 Jew is a little bit more than Tech it's the benefits that these other companies could potentially see as the economy picks up interesting we'll see if it plays out that way thanks Josh |
8nFra4XcBGw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8nFra4XcBGw | 2024-03-17 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | 'It's harder to raise capital now' SingleStore CEO says following Silicon Valley Bank collapse | it has been one year since the Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and some Venture capitalists remember contributed to the run on the bank by encouraging portfolio companies to pull out their funds in turn the bank's demise led to worries about where the valley would go to service startups financially here to help us dig into lessons we've learned from the svb collapse and to talk about his new book time is now a journey to demystifying AI is the CEO of single store Raj Verma thanks for being here Raj it's good to see you good to see you too Julie thanks for having me on so appreciate it we talked one year ago and you expressed very firm confidence that startup culture was going to be fine that the valley was going to be fine that it was going to survive because at the time there was quite a lot of Doom and Gloom on that front how have things changed though in the past year since the collapse yeah I think um I was listening to the show before I came on and I do think that the emphasis on growth at any cost has subsided I do think that investors are looking for a leveraged growth model uh and I think the companies are resulting to working on profitable growth Etc so I think that's a big change in the valley or or globally I would say in the last 12 months um I do think that there isn't a death of capital however uh only the good companies are being able to raise Capital versus a scenario in 2020 21 where even a mediocre company could probably raise Capital so for sure it's harder to raise Capital now than there it was um probably 18 months ago or in fact two years ago um I do think that the opportunity of generative AI is the biggest opportunity in my career that I have seen and I've gone through you know quite a few um sort of um these technological enhancements in my career internet Cloud all the rest and I think this is going to be bigger than all of them put together so still very very interesting companies in the valley I do think that um the growth at all costs has gone away and more fiscal responsibility has um has crept into the businesses which is good I think um only the good ones would survive and that's always the laws of physics so as to speak and it's coming true |
hOqFnPi8uHw | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOqFnPi8uHw | 2024-03-16 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | McDonald's still dominating breakfast category with Egg McMuffin | McDonald's Wendy's and other fast food Giants are vying for diners morning dollars duking it out when it comes to enticing customers at breakfast time as foot traffic has declined since the pandemic but not all are getting sweet results so Brook toala has been digging into new data joins us now so where are people going for breakfast good morning good afternoon I'm thinking morning I'm thinking breakfast good afternoon Julie McDonald's is still taking the cake here it's important to note that McDonald's does still dominate The Breakfast game game with their coveted Egg McMuffin really a known brand among so many consumers they currently have roughly 35% of total market share here when compared to other fast food chains coffee breakfast Bakery and dessert shops when compared to all those and that's followed by longtime breakfast player Starbucks and Duncan and then a newcomer Burger King holding 4.4% of share leading into value with its March promotion that customers can get a free breakfast item with any purchase of a dollar or more that's then followed by Wendy's now Wendy's really doubling down on increasing morning visits they introduced breakfast back in 2020 and they're now investing $55 million in advertising in the US and Canada to increase that sales those sales the morning uh Day part that's followed by Taco Bell they currently have 1.9% but they're leaning on Innovation with breakfast tots as well as value offerings like the Bell breakfast box but all these companies are really looking to tap into a new customer here not necessarily take away a customer from Another Day part and the street thinks that this addition could really benefit companies they could see incremental foot traffic here once again additional foot traffic not taking away from Another Day part perhaps someone who's looking to step away from that pricey brunch and also still go out in addition to that breakfast requires lower staffing needs and you're tapping into lower cost food think eggs think bread but execution is really key here given the additional inventory that's needed you also do need staff demand these hours they need to make sure that there is a sufficient demand here in order to make sure the margins don't deteriorate here and make sure that it works out Taco Bell breakfast I have yet to take that plunge sounds interesting though thank you for that Brooke |
u19lNT-n-dk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u19lNT-n-dk | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Zscaler CEO discusses cybersecurity and Avalor deal: 'We can now fight AI with AI' | well a number of software stocks hitting a speed bump in 2024 on tepid guidance but zscaler looking to switch up the narrative as it takes a Leap Forward in trying to harness the power of AI the cloud security company ready to enhance its AI capabilities with an acquisition company called avalor that was announced yesterday and zscaler CEO Jay chadre is joining us now Jay first of all fantastic to see you it's been a little while since we had the chance to talk so it's good to see you thank you Julie so let's talk about avalor here this is an Israeli startup and interestingly as they wrote today it's not started by Security Professionals but rather programming folks who saw an opportunity here explain to people what they do here they they have what they call their data fabric for security how should people think about what that is exactly yeah to really take advantage of data to really solve security problems with AI you need to solve the data problems first and then you need domain expertise of security yes the founders of evor have done companies the past where they know how to create data models with large amounts of data once you create models around the data then we can write cyber applications to do faster better detection of any of the threats out there after correlating it so it's a perfect combination of zcar bringing security expertise and over 400 billion transactions a day logs to do good AIML security you need the best data C killer has the best data aor has the best data fabric the two together will it's is a fascinating combination you know Jay I it's good to see you and I'm interested Jay also you know what is it about American cybercity companies they often Jay seem to find acquisition Targets in Israel you know it's it's not just you all it's uh you know crowd strike Palo Alto what is going on inside Israel Jay it's a country it's only 9 million people that American cyber security companies often do find Targets there there's a lot of innovation in cyber security in either silon Valley or in Israel and we look for the best new innovative solutions and we have found them in Israel we've done a couple of them in Israel before but we look for wherever new innovation new technology comes in to disrupt the Legacy Technologies you know Z Skiller was founded to disrupt the old school firewalls vpns we had done it extremely well in the case of zero trust exchange platform we built and now we want to do the same kind of disruption in this area where we need to handle logs and make sense out of it so that's why it's a very exciting acquisition for us so I'm curious Jay as you look at uh what avalor is going to provide you with and you combine that with your zero TR trust a system you know how how much are you going to be able to see an increase in the capability of you know preventing threats for example preventing attacks I mean can is there a way of quantifying that yeah so today we are an exchange we are a switchb for any communication by any user to any application we do that extremely well we're the market Le in space no the logs that get created because the communication need to be Min need to be harnessed offline and that's what AVR allows us to do with the data modeling we can find incremental threats it doesn't need to be a large number if we take it from 96% to 97% that's a big deal and then we can feed it back to our inline exchange to offer a closed loop system that no one else offers that's why the combination makes it very exciting a very unique opportunity for us Jay you know you recently reported results and it didn't sound like you were seeing uh any kind of customer fatigue like some peers such as Palo Alto suggested they were seeing correct that is right why is that Jay you know I don't know about them but I do know that cios look for two things one cyber is fundamentally very important for not just ceso cios and the board now number two there is some Market uh tightness out there but if you can go and say I can not only give you great cyber but I can also reduce your cost the the deal move for moves forward we are one of the very few security companies that removes a lot of Point products lots of firewalls VP and the like so the business case becomes very good that's why we don't aren't seeing any kind of spending fatigue we are seeing fatigue for ELA as a bundles some companies like to bundle a lot of products and call it a platform but it's nothing more than bundling it becomes shelfware and cios want to make sure they're not paying for any shelfware so there's fatigue on that side but customers are very focused on buying effective products that do the best cyber protection um forgive me Jay what is Ela as a bundle oh it's a Enterprise agreement where companies say take my 15 products I'm going to give you for the price of 12 so it's a great deal take it the customer really only wants eight so the other seven sit as shelf beer ah gotcha and there so there's decreasing demand for that what other changes if any either to the good or bad are you seeing in demand appetite right now the cyber security threats are at the highest is far more concerned today than it was 6 months ago or 12 months ago so it's it's not just on cis's mind with SEC asking for special reporting with SEC suing solar bins SEC suing the ciso everyone is worried about it so demand is there you need to show the customer that your products are not all Legacy product they are effective in cyber security and they save money then the thing happens there is no lack of interest there is scrutiny to make sure the solution works well and it gives good a i Jay I'll get you out of here on this could you put uh J AI in perspective for us both from the attacker side and the defensive side what what what are you bringing to the table on that front Jay sorry bring on what front on when it comes to AI yeah so AI is becoming more and more scary today you can ask a simple question that says please chat GPD show me all of my firewalls and V that have vulnerabilities in less than 30 seconds you get a full list so attacking companies is becoming easier but we can fight AI with AI by taking all the data we have 400 billion logs we have we use AI predictive and AI generative together to find some of the things that we could not find before now with AI we can actually predict potentially where the attack would happen and when because I can create an attack graph using all the data Z has with some of the technology that EV bring to the table so we think we are very excited to help our customers my personal mission is really to really overcome all of these growing threats we're seeing out there Jay great to see you as always thanks for joining us |
6VNJwFC1j1s | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VNJwFC1j1s | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Baidu is the 'Google of China,' strategist says on Buy rating | [Music] it's a big noisy Universe of stocks out there welcome to goodbye or goodbye our goal to help cut through that noise to navigate the best moves for your portfolio of course the tech space has been inundated with companies looking to into to tap into generative AI but what's the best way to play this ever growing AI Arena I'm here with Dave maer roundhill Investments Chief strategy officer Dave thanks for being here appreciate it so let's get to your buy stock and it is BU do BU do interesting here don't hear too many folks too many folks talking about Chinese AI plays right now but let's get into it and why you like it first of all you say it's got a diversify business model indeed so Buu known as the Google of China and by by that it means obviously a core part is their search business but they're involved with a little bit of everything including autonomous vehicles and generative AI of course the background was saw with that chart has been pretty challenging if we were to look at a longer term chart wouldn't be much prettier either yeah so but that's actually you say part of the thing that makes it a good play right now because it's come down so much yeah exactly so the macro concerns have really weighed on the stock right most people have not ignored any of the positive fundamentals and focused just in the fact that it's China related and China names have on a favor for geopolitical reasons macroeconomic concerns what have you but bottom line it's now trading at some of its lowest levels ever since it listed and that translates to a 10x forward times priced earnings where can you find a tech stock as Diversified as BYU is at 10 times forward earnings pretty hard to find especially in the US yeah it's true and but let's talk about the geni part of it specifically so what is BYU doing on that front and how is it going to help boost profitability for the compan of course so a lot of companies are talking about generative AI but less are actually doing it by do as example where they are plowing money into generative AI That's loss making right now but what they have is called Ernie bbot so we're focused on chat gbt that's basically trained on English language large language model Ernie bot is Chinese uh using uh the Chinese language and so what that means is that the results are actually more accurate there so that's just one example of what the company's involved in but J of AI is a big part of its push forward and you can imagine them integrating that into search and into other applications like a Microsoft is today we have to talk about the risk whenever we talk about a buy stock and here the risk is pretty obvious because we've already seen it as you said affect the stock and that is it's focus on China and the sort of macro headwinds and unpredictability of yeah that's I think that's a big part of it and the reason why investors have rated these stocks down is because of it's really hard to quantify what's going to happen in China uh and there's been so much concern but again if you look at the valuations at 10 times forward the revenue growth remains there to me this is really thinking about unless you believe that something catastrophic think is going to happen in China if you're looking for attractive Tech valuations a name like this might fit the bill so in other words effectively it's priced in some of the China risk already and perhaps overpriced in that TR that's what we believe we think at this point shares the share uh decline has been too extended and again for investors looking for an opportunity a name like B could be there and you have some of that margin of safety at this point with 10 times forward earnings all right let's get to the stock you're avoiding here and this has been a popular one which you say maybe is part of the problem ARM Holding what we're talking about here the stock is really skyrocketed especially this year but here you know the part of the company's sort of selling point when it did go public was this gen opportunity but you think it's overstated yeah exactly I think it's it's hard to uh say goodbye to a stock with a chart looking like that but to your point that's part of the story really since uh their IPO their reintroduction as a public company they've just they've just soared um but our concern is when we think about again generative AI is it going to happen for them now we know they're involved with Nvidia that's known in the price what other deals are they are they going to sign on a bigger concern to us is their involvement with Apple and apple smartphones and MacBooks what have you because they are licensing and the royalties from the chips there are big part of arms business and the question is does that really start translating anytime soon we actually think some of the cons the Apple concerns can bleed into that and overwhelm anything positive from gen interesting okay let's get to the second Point here competition and Chip design in some cases is you know from the hyperscalers themselves in some cases other chip companies yeah that's exactly right so we're seeing companies begin to design their own chips actually kind of Leverage some of the learnings that maybe they've had with arm or just simply the fact that everyone's getting into it there's tons of catchup happening with Nvidia and whether it's AMD uh at some point Intel will we we'll figure it out and others is that the chip space the cyclicality there is still uh something that that investors cannot ignore and arm I think is a little bit more subjective to the competition than other other players may be and then finally here other significant risks that we're looking at to the business yeah I think there's just other risks with arms that that we may not be aware of particularly on that valuation side right if we're they are trading at a hundred times forward earnings and so even even if this company has an excellent business model you have to understand what you're what what you're getting here and 100 times forward earnings let alone the insane price that they're trading at on a revenue basis I think there's just a lot of risk there stepping into the name now yeah I guess the phrase price to to Perfection was invented for a situation like this so let's talk about the risk to the downside here it's that the stock could correct right and maybe then it would be a better entrance yeah here's the interesting thing when we think about opportunities in general of AI there's going to be a lot of names that are going to be exciting this name to us has those elements just not at a 100 times forward earnings and so interesting enough a RIS of the cas is uh does actually soft bank which remains a large owner of this not actually uh sell and then at some point investors who have been on the sidelines or the short sellers which were absolutely burned in the last earnings have to give up uh and say that this becomes a buy but for the time being we're waiting for a pullback before adding gotcha okay and just uh quickly disclosures on this buy do I believe you guys hold this in some of your portfolios that's correct Yeah we actually it's a one of our largest Holdings in our chat ETF which is the roundhill generative Ai and Technology ETF uh so want want to make sure folks are aware of that yeah an arm no position and arm no position and arm okay Dave let's summarize the case you're making to investors here you say people should look at buying buy do based on that Diversified business model attractive valuation efforts and expanding generative AI with Ernie bot on the other side you're saying avoid arm it's facing Rising competition and its true involvement in generative AI right now at least has been overstated along with that soaring stock price thank you so much Dave for being here appreciate it thanks for having me and thank you for watching goodbye or goodbye we'll be bringing new episodes three times a week at 3:30 p.m. Eastern |
ocbbqkLJ3no | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ocbbqkLJ3no | 2024-03-17 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | 'Generative AI boom is in its infancy,' SingleStore CEO says | Raj you mentioned uh to your point there's a lot of upstarts a lot of startups focusing on various parts of of AI do you expect a wave of consolidation over the next 18 months as some of the bigger players in Tech space flush with cash start to pick out which companies could be the ultimate winners and are willing to buy them I don't think there's going to be a consolidation in the generative AI Market in the next 18 months or so is there going to be a consolidation in the next 3 years probably I do think that um people are going to go have at it in the generative AI space understand it's also evolving it's only it's in its infancy it's two years into this entire generative AI boom and I'll ask you to reflect back when the cell phone was invented what did the mobile phone look like in its second year it it looked like a brick it was probably the size of my hand and I had a battery time of less than an hour so that's where we are in the ultimate landscape of generative AI so I think consolidation it's too early for consolidation I do think that there'll be a lot of money and a lot of research that's going to go into generative AI I think we'll all benefit from it but I think consolidation is a little more than 18 months away Bri um and the companies that are starting up now or that are still fairly fledgling just to go back to the sort of funding question and Silicon Valley Bank and Bank servicing question do you find the behavior has changed in the valley in that uh company I mean even though there is a version of svb that still exists companies maybe are being maybe have learned some lessons maybe you're not banking EV you know all everything in one place for example have you seen that kind of change oh 100% I don't know I mean we all CEOs of private startups or most of us hang out occasionally at least if not more frequently and we were saying that one of the biggest lessons that we learned from this I mean single so we had single s was just fortunate that we had multiple Banks because we were flushed with cash so we didn't want to put all our eggs in one basket and that's why I happen to sleep a little better than most other CEOs uh on that weekend about a year ago however I don't know of any startup founder which does not have an alternative bank so doesn't have at least two if not three banks that they bank with now um and have optionality um so that's probably one of the biggest um learnings that we CEOs had out of the svb crisis and also to understand that svb was a very good line of credit provider so as to speak there is no dir of credit in the market right now and uh companies are able to raise debt I mean reasonable companies are able to raise debt so I don't see aity of capital both credit and Equity Capital um credit is you know that one time ARR ratio whereas equity uh there are more Discerning investors now than they were about um 20 months 24 months ago Julian BR well hopefully that makes for a more healthy ecosystem I wanted to switch back uh to AI here as we mentioned you're coming out with a book next month on demystifying AI and I'm hoping you can help me demystify or clarify a current debate that is going on that's highlighted by two prominent individuals Elon Musk and Sam Alman on whether um generative AI in particular should be on a so-called open system or closed system I'm just wondering as you watch that play out what you think the answer is I I do think that the answer is somewhere in the middle I think both um both of the parties are trying to hopefully accomplish the same thing that there is a democratization of AI and AI is not the privilege of the few so from that concept there's open are closed I do think that I agree with the democratization of AI now what does democratization of AI mean that everyone should have access to AI platforms at what cost and what optionality they should have is a for debate I do think that at the end of the day for um a AI platform to survive it has to have the ability to be monetized and I don't know how open platforms which are not have some layer of closed Source in it can be monetized effectively over a period of time and if it cannot be then you know there isn't a business model that exactly what we were talking about and also if it is a completely open business model how do you prevent that from not Landing up in the hands of the people we do not wanted to land up in so that's a that's a huge debate and I do think that the survival or a AI platform would have to be having a layer of closed Source in it um however I do think that certain level of democratization by making it available to the masses um is is required so as I said the answer is somewhere in between Julie all right Raj great to catch up with you really appreciate it and I'm sure our conversation will continue uh on this topic of AI it's not going anywhere Raj bmer I appreciate it thank you very much |
i5kqqMyd5A8 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5kqqMyd5A8 | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | The stock market digesting that 'there won't be a rate cut as quickly as hoped': Strategist | Our Guest here we have Dana Dior invest inets PMC co-chief investment officer here uh joining us Dana let's talk about the positioning how investors should be getting ready for the big meeting at the FED next week what would you make first of the wild trading day or the wild action that we saw in the bond market yesterday and how that sets us up well I do think that you know the market is contending with the fact that there's probably not going to be a rate cut as quickly as they hoped and you it's kind of odd right I mean from the start of the year I we look back just a couple of months ago uh six odd you know rate Cuts being priced in and the expectation really didn't make sense with the rest of what was going on with the market right you had the FED at that point saying hey higher for longer you had no sign of a recession coming and you had unemployment staying strong and really what's happened is not a lot has changed and the market now is is sort of Coming to Terms right so we have inflation to your point you know ticking up a little bit PPI um core you know consumer inflation still kind of not getting under wraps in the way that the FED would like I mean it's not it's not going up in obviously any kind of extreme way but it suggests that it's not also coming down right uh the the it's plateaued a bit and and kind of staying stickier than wanted and then of course you know unemployment unemployment rate ticked up a little bit uh but initial jobless claims very low right relatively speaking and you know so it looks like the employment Market is strong consumer is strong uh why would the FED be cutting rates anytime soon so I know we've heard some dobish things you know coming out of the FED um and and they maybe are going to speak that way about it a little bit but I think the market is recognizing hey look um you know we we just might not get even three this year Dana what are the top pillars to the no cut playbook for investors I think um in terms of how you're thinking about it and I and I'm a little you know so obviously uh typically speaking if you're not going to get rate cuts then that should theoretically hurt growth stocks because they have longer dated cash flows they have to Discount back by a higher rate uh what we've seen is that technology these big growth companies have not flinched you know one iota based on what's going on with you know interest rate expectations and that's largely because they're self-funding right they have the cash they don't need to go back to Capital markets where we've seen the pain kind of fell is small cap Arena which is more interest rate sensitive and so You' you'd think the the Intelligence on that would be okay seems like then we should stick with large caps but remember that the market prices things in very fast right and so as it's looking at what what the potential for rate hikes is throughout the course of the rest of the year I think you take that longer term uh look you look at valuations I'm still a proponent that at least some you know small cap position maybe even a little bit of a tilt relative to the fact that look you've got a massive amount of Mega cap in your portfolio I don't care if you're passive you're active unless they're taking massive tracking era you've got a lot of Mega cap I still think there's a place for small I think it just may be a bet you have to ride out a little bit longer Daniel you mentioned the fact that we might not get three Cuts now between now and year end what's your base case and when you talk about the impact it's going to have on equities what more specifically then does that downside look like well you know you think about what has the market been thinking about in terms of why these high you know why the expectation of rate cuts to begin with right and what were the reasons potentially that would even um rationalize that maybe one is that you know our federal debt is increasing so dramatically and and perhaps there was an expectation that the FED would you know want to lower the interest rate cost I think that's still in the mix politics are still in the mix so I'm arguing a little that you know yes there's some reasons to still think that as long as the FED feels comfortable that inflation doesn't take back up we could see a few more rate Cuts with that with that whole big thing being a cavia I would say I think two to three I I I I actually lean towards um the lower end is the base case though for all the reasons we've talked about |
kQkQTRh9czI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQkQTRh9czI | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | National Association Realtors settles commission lawsuits, agrees to pay $418 million | time now to check in on some trending tickers as the closing bell on Wall Street quickly approaches starting with a look at the real estate space the National Association of Realtors to pay $418 million to settle the real estate agent commission lawsuits shares of real estate stocks you can see there just Zillow and Compass take it a hit following the lawsuit settlement yaho finds his very own Danny Romero here with the latest Danny sayar of those 6% commission fees the N announced the settlement this million dollar sentiment but there's a couple new rules so I want to lay those out so for one the new rules include it prohibits agents compensations from being included on local centralized listing portals the N had required sellers to include that compensation when listing a home on this multiple listing service database that no longer is required two a new rule it ends the requirement that Brokers must subscribe to this multiple listings service which many are owned by the N local branches and the last new rule is that it requires buyers Brokers to enter into a written agreement with their buyers and some Wall Street analysts have been saying that this uh new settlement could uh cause commissions to drop by 25% to 25 to 50% and then also it does open the opportunity for these discount brokerages to really get some skin in the game but again what does this mean for home buying now right there's two sides to this story so for home buying buyers can now shop around on rates and see before they commit to buying a home another thing is that Brokers can now start advertising their fees and allow customers to pick a lower cost agent I don't know if that's really going to go somewhere but that's allowed now uh and then buyers also have to sign an agreement detailing how much they are willing to pay their agent for their services agents representing buyers can now negotiate iate that too about you know I'm requiring this amount it could either be the bills could either be a monthly bill or it could be just one flat fee but it definitely is changing the game but at the end of the day this agreement this settlement really does need to be going to it's going to go to federal court so there needs to be approval on that at the end of the day yeah it's I mean there's a lot of unknown still so let's talk about this a little more thank you so much Danny appreciate it |
ByVStL_8liA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByVStL_8liA | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Prosecutors urge judge to sentence Sam Bankman-Fried to 40-50 years in prison | prosecutors weighing in on the sentencing of Sam bankman freed they say that he should face 40 to 50 years for his role in the collapse of FTX here um and this came out of a filing of the US in the US District Court in Manhattan which was uh included the sentencing recommendation the hearing at which that will actually be determined is schedule for March 28th yeah it's interesting a sentence of so ranging from 40 to 50 years um Bloomberg actually point sa the request is actually far less though than the 100 years recommended in US criminal sentencing guidelines but of course not surprisingly a lot more than than his lawyers were asking for I think a key line here prosecutor saying in the filing in every part of his business and with respect to each crime committed the defendant demonstrated a Brazen disrespect for the rule of law he understood the rules but decide they did not apply to him yeah and his lawyers in the meantime last month had said he should get 6 and A2 years correct so obviously 40 to 50 is a lot more than that and a lot less than the 100 so it'll be interesting to see what the judge does here because remember their relationship uh Rocky at times and also does the judge decide you know on March 28th that you know he's going to make an example here um just to kind of warn others of of trend down the same path all right as this goes on in the background we are seeing a decline in Bitcoin prices today of course we've seen this big run up huge and remarkable a little bit of a pullback here today |
T71jv1dhHTI | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T71jv1dhHTI | 2024-03-16 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | AI in the workplace: Talent recruitment the most frequently used application | well what will the workforce look like when you integrate artificial intelligence with human Ingenuity well these are some of the themes the society for human resources management explored at their recent AI plus hi conference now some companies risk falling behind their recent annual report says that only 12% of HR professionals and 15% of us workers believe that their organization is effectively integrating AI into the workplace with that in mind let's bring in Johnny Taylor society for human resources management CEO to discuss more thank you for joining me this morning so I know when we tend to talk about a Ai and the workplace sometimes for workers there's there's a lot of push back and a lot of concern about sort of where this is going but in you in this latest conference that you had it was more about collaboration between the two what are some of the key use cases that support this so what we know for example and by the way thank you for having me here it's great to see you um Kei listen in recruitment number one Talon a was position is the is the most um often used application right now in AI let's face it if you're in an hiring manager if you're in Human Resources you post an application you get a thousand resumés how can you reasonably go through the process of reviewing 1,00 resumés with high quality and looking for all of the right traits and skills in a candidate so we're absolutely using is in recruiting and hiring and then Learning and Development increasingly especially as we are forced to learn with all of the changes new technologies new approaches to doing business we're using it to provide asynchronous fast Effective Education and the Performance Management once you tell a person that they're not doing well or conversely that they're doing well in their job how can we give them the tools to do better or continue performing better so Johnny then when companies are looking at either upskilling and retaining existing workers versus sort of bringing in you know new workers who already have that AI training how are they looking at those sorts of Investments yeah they're just that they're investments in times past Learning and Development was really considered a perk for the employee now and increasingly so employers are acknowledging that this is an investment in their business because at the end of the day people are you know an aggregation of of businesses or an aggregation of their people and so we're seeing it very much as an investment it's a long-term investment and it's a at this point one that we're going to have to do continuously given the rapid changes that we in Technologies and tools we know that it's not about you know helping someone acquire a bachelor's degree and then we're done or an MBA we're going have to retrain constantly cross Trin resk skill employees because as the Technologies of today are old tomorrow indeed so with that in mind obviously AI is as good as the data that it's trained on so how do we avoid some of the prior biases that we've seen in hiring and retention and how employees are are judged and assessed how do we get some of those biases out or perhaps at least fine-tune what we get with an AI version or an AI collaborative version well first of all thank you that is the best question I have to tell you because oftentimes the question is posed is wow aren't these Technologies algorithms filled with bias well yes but I got to tell you they're not any more biased in fact the data will tell you they are less biased than human beings as wonderful as we are we bring all of our conscious and oftentimes unconscious biases into the hiring process for example I have a position that's open as a hiring manager I need it filled immediately and the person who shows up the most qualified candidate is a pregnant woman and I'm like oh no no no I can't hire that person because she's not going to be able to she's going to be out for a while she may not be fully engaged when she returns because we know what happens with working mothers in other words all of our biases come into play yes there is admittedly some bias in the technology but what we have the advantage that we have in the Technologies the AI is that we can check for those biases and correct for them the algorithms can be modified and let me be clear they can be modified a lot more easily than modifying and impacting and influencing bias in a human being now obviously that sort of transparency you know it can be a double-edged sword for some companies here are you seeing much optimism in terms of adopting some of these Technologies and the pace that they're adopting them yes so Pace slow let face it I tell folk the big date was November 29th 2022 when the world essentially was in introduced to chat GPT the first of the generative AI tools that we we know of and what we know is it's not been that long like in fact it usually takes uh the workplace and the workforce years to adopt even to embrace the idea of adopting a technology and I think this has been pretty quickly I mean in a 15 18 months or so people have actually begun to embrace it and embrace it quickly so it's coming it's not as fast as we'd like it but there is a learning curve we start with employees have to embrace this every headline that you see talks about how AI will replace hi human intelligence or take people's jobs naturally then people will resist it and find problems with it so that's been a big part of the adoption problem is that the narrative is that AI is coming for your job so that's the opportunity that we have on the worker side and we're doing a much better job at that now employees are afraid because I saw the Goldman Sachs headline 300 million jobs will disappear or be significantly degraded as on account of of AI why do you think people would naturally Embrace that oh it's true and I think a lot of the piece that ends up missing in that is some of these sort of repetitive tasks that AI you know can do while people can perhaps take on other things as long as they have the the skills and get upskilled to do that um I do want to ask you some of the key trends if you had to think of perhaps four key trends that are really going to dominate where we go with AI in the workplace and how corporations should be looking at it what do you think is going to Mark the future here number one is reskilling we're going to have to it's not enough to say to people you need to embrace technology we've got to show them how to do it that's number one number two is a legislative environment uh policymakers as we saw in your last episode are weighing in very heavily on this and so we're going to see a lot of activity from a trend standpoint around what state and and federal government uh the state and federal government is going to do about the adoption of AI the third is it's G to happen fast what we think we know about AI today will absolutely be outdated in six months so get ready and and then the fourth is employees I think ultimately are going to embrace it because of the point that you alluded to earlier and that is they're going to see there's good in this for me some of the mundane tasks the parts of my job that I hated it's going to take away and and make me and free me up to either enjoy my job by doing things I want to do or have more free time outside of work so those are the trends people are going to adopt this government's going to weigh in very heavily the technolog is going to get better and faster and and ultimately we are going to find an environment where AI artificial intelligence plus hi human intelligence are going to coexist to create the new Roi so then Johnny for people who are wondering in terms of the bottom line here when you compare companies that are getting AI right and integrating it well what would be the the selling point here for companies who were saying look it's too expensive I I don't have the finances to upskill versus those that are really plowing ahead here well it's the way of the world AI if if you're not doing it you will lose the game I mean that's the bottom line these Technologies are going to make us more efficient more effective uh better at what we do and they're going to improve the lives and the quality of the lives of our employees so if you're not doing it you're going to be at a competitive disadvantage and it's not just the tech companies every industry is going to be impacted and every job is going to be impacted by AI some more than others but all of them will be impacted and so get with it or lose the game there you go get with it or lose the game there's the ending you need right there appreciate you for joining me this morning Johnny Taylor society for human resources management CEO thank you for your time this morning be well thank you |
10g6FUEpa7g | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10g6FUEpa7g | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Bitcoin and crypto: 'We're seeing a lot of performance in altcoins,' analyst says | a roller coaster week for Bitcoin yet again after nearing 74,000 thanks to spot ETF demand the rally has cooled at least for now and as Bitcoin rallied and fell the altcoins followed suit to break down bitcoin's moves and why altcoins should be your next crypto bet Christopher new house Cumberland lab's defi analyst is here thank you for joining me on this Friday so I want to first set the scene with what we saw with bitcoin's moves because obviously as Bitcoin moves we do tend to see the other token follow but Bitcoin and then hopes of a a spot ether ETF as well really contributing to the rally here what should we make of this pause that we're seeing yeah first of all thanks for having me Michelle um in terms of the kind of pause that we're looking at right now um I'd like to say that the things that we're looking for heading forward are going to be specific narratives um you were seeing a lot of performance in these alt coins a lot of these different layer ones a lot of these narrative Centric tokens outperforming the current market environment right now and from my perspective sure we've got this retracement we've got a potential pause in the majors but there are starting to be a lot of interest in specific altcoin narratives popping up um I like to say that some of the altcoins that are super popular within the top 20 market cap which first of all is a feat in and of itself the altcoins that are actually moving right now are in the top 20 market cap these coins have billions of dollars worth of dollars invested in these coins right now um near Avalanche ton these are all that have their own very specific specific narrative behind them and I think that that is what's driving the move right now for some of the out altcoin outperformance and I want to look at filecoin a coin that I'm watching here what are some of the ways that you're seeing that outperform and and what's really supporting it yeah yeah so filecoin I'd like to say is part of the narrative that is known as decentralized physical infrastructure and the physical infrastructure that is being decentralized by fcoin is storage um one of the hottest narratives I like to say in the traditional markets currently is going to be the the AI narrative right and one of the biggest things that I'm keeping my eye on in the traditional markets is the Nvidia AI Conference next week so the reason for performance I'd like to say for coins like filecoin near uh render and some of these other more decentralized physical infrastructure tokens they're actually all focused on decentralized compute decentralized storage um so from my perspective from with filecoin uh you know kind of at the Forefront there they're focusing a little bit more on the storage um so I'd like to say that anything to do with storage decentralized compute that makes sense as to why the outperformance has happened so suddenly and so recently it's because of the hot AI narrative that's going on in the traditional markets and now being able to invest maybe globally um I like to think about it from a different perspective here is if you're able to get access and exposure to traditional Market narratives using the digital asset markets themselves that's a more Global Market and more globally available um for people you know in different countries being able to get access to Pure AI exposure Maybe through Nidia could be difficult but being able to buy something like these tokens we've mentioned maybe gets access to the traditional narratives that are going on through the digital asset markets and you raised an interesting point about there being two baskets when you're looking at some of these coins narrative as you mentioned but also timing what are some of the Front Runners there because obviously you can have something like you know Dogecoin popping up because Elon Musk is suggesting that potentially at some point you know see more of it being able to be used to buy Teslas at some point some of these you consider a BL how do you really navigate those two baskets yeah yeah so from my perspective crypto is a very narrative driven attention driven economy and it really depends on how you separate the verticals so for something like meme coins which are very hot and very interesting right now I'd like to say that those mecoin driven Investments Investments are very uh attention driven whereas for some of these other altcoins and layer ones within the top 20 market cap I'd like to say that's more narrative driven and in terms of thinking about timing narratives are usually a longer duration of timing um so being able to come up with what's going to be hot in 3 months what's going to be hot in 6 months what's going to be hot in 12 months that's something that's a little bit more narrative oriented and maybe some of these larger m market cap altcoins and layer ones is going to be uh focus on that whereas with the meme coins it's very much so what's hot in the next seven days what's hot in the next 14 days maybe what's hot in two days um and that's kind of just looking at Price action volatility what's going on in those specific meme coins as well so I'd like to separate the timing in terms of two baskets is it a long-term narrative that'll be here for a while or is it an attention-driven Nar narrative um that'll only be a a flash in the pan and of course with that in mind a lot of excitement still building behind a potential spot ether um spot ETF the SEC coming up against that deadline soon what are the expectations there obviously it is a little bit different you have elements of things like staking in there that make it a little bit different from Bitcoin how should investors be viewing that yeah so from my perspective um it's a Tailwind that is very interesting because you think if you think about it from a relative value perspective looking at Bitcoin you just discussed how we hit new all-time highs this week and last week whereas ethereum we haven't tested those levels yet um so from my perspective there is kind of this relative value trade that a lot of people are very interested in um in terms of what I think could happen after a spot e ETF if this is approved I do think that first of all eth may uh you know be able to break new highs but I also think that a lot of the focus on eth these layer 2os eth literally just had an upgrade on its kind of on its blockchain Network to reduce the cost of data availability that made some of the layer 2 tokens a little bit more attractive um so from my perspective if a spot e e ETF is to be approved you can probably start to see maybe some profit taking maybe some rotations but in the long term I think that that's going to be bullish for both eth Bitcoin digital assets as a whole um whenever I like to think of Bitcoin versus eth I think of whenever I think of eth I think of the technology there's a lot of different decentralized applications and there's a lot of things going on in the ecosystem of ethereum and some of the other defi oriented tokens um that it's a it's a very different thing to think about but I I would like to say that you know if the spot ETF was to be approved I do think that there's going to be more of these narrative driven kind of rotations out of the majors and into some of the alt coins I appreciate you taking the time to break that down for us Christopher New housee Cumberland Labs defi analyst thank you for your time this morning have a great so much |
fYpYLFCziZk | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYpYLFCziZk | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Boeing's troubles: A timeline of all the issues facing the 737 Max | The Saga over Boeing 737 Max has been stealing headlines for years and in January of this year it issued to a boiling point here but let's take a step back to how this story started in August 2011 Boeing first unveiled the 737 Max aircraft family but the plan was to build on the success of the current 737 and Next Generation model it was an update not a new design the maiden flight took place without a hitch January 29th 2016 well fast forward to October 29th 2018 in catastrophe strikes line air operated 737 max8 crashes shortly after takeoff killing 189 people less than a year later on March 10th of 2019 disaster strikes again a max8 flown by Ethiopian Airlines crashes killing 157 people just 3 days after the second fatal incident the FAA temporarily grounded all Boeing 730 7 max 8 and Max 9 planes high-profile investigations followed and Boeing vowed to make the necessary changes now fast forward to this year and another major incident for the manufacturer that's right on January 5th a fuselage panel blew out on an Alaska Airlines operated Max 9 shortly after departure from Portland Oregon the stunning images of a missing section of a plane shocked the world and put the company's issues into Stark relief Alaska temporarily grounded its Fleet of Max 9's as a result and a day later the FAA temporarily grounded some max9 planes and called for inspections of the aircraft it led to United Airlines grounding its entire fleets of Boeing 737 Max NES and also cancelling dozens of flights the FAA then launched a formal investigation into the Boeing 737 max9 and just days after Alaska Airlines CEO Ben manuchi told NBC that the airline found quote some loose bolts on many Boeing 737 max9 he said I'm more than frustrated and disappointed and I'm angry the CEO is saying on January 24th the FAA cleared the 737 Max 9 Jets to fly but halted production expansion Boeing made the move to replace the head of the 737 Max program just last month and earlier this week an FAA audit it actually found dozens of issues with the 737 Max production this won't be back to business as usual for Boeing they must to commit to real and profound improvements End quotes the FAA administrator Michael Whitaker saying in a statement but does this story end with Boeing well maybe not here it doesn't because we saw the contagion effect from Boeing's issues this week Southwest Airlines revealing that it will cut flying capacity for the full year just after United and Delta both announced deliveries of the max 10 Jets could be delayed as late as 2027 |
s37k7EXKOhM | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s37k7EXKOhM | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia GTC AI Conference: 'Hype is certainly there,' strategist says | nvidia's big AI conference GTC beginning on Monday investors are climing for the latest news and product announcements that's going to come from the AI darling Nvidia shares have been on a roller coaster this week are up though 70% since the start of the year so what's to expect from the big event next week let's bring in Stacy Rasin burnstein's managing director and Senior analyst Stacy it's great to have you here so there certainly is a lot of hype heading in to the big event on Monday what are you expecting and how big of a catalyst yeah so there's going to be a lot there I I I mean it's it's they haven't held one of these events in person in four years and the last one they held it in in person certainly um AI was not nearly as as exciting and mainstream as I think it is today so there is a lot of expectations going into this the biggest piece of I guess incremental information that we're all looking for is details on nvidia's Next Generation products that the code name is Blackwell the product's called the b00 um and people are waiting to see you know how much better is it than the current stuff like what is the timeline um people want to see um you know how like how big of an opportunity do they think overall like they're they're their their their Market can give them over the next like several years and um in in general like there is the the hype is certainly there right I mean you even mentioned like the stock selling off this week I mean there are like there are fears that the hype is so much it just can't live up to it like people are worried about a sell the news like kind of event and I'd say with these events in the past we've seen both i' I've seen takes where um it was a sell the news and I've seen other ones where I think in you know in 2017 the stock was up 30% like like coming out of this meeting so it's kind of been all over the place I will say long story short though it's going to be a very exciting event I think there's going to be lots of details on on this as well as like all the other parts of their businesses everybody who cares about AI at in the slightest is going to be there um I'll be there in person um I'm really looking forward to it it should be a lot of fun you know it's so interesting that you you mentioned the risk of this being a potential sell the news event in the in the case that they don't come out with the the Goldilocks type of tenor that's uh really needed to get the stock potentially to $1,000 I mean I think back to that old you know Nike ad where they did the whole Kobe System thing success at success at success that's essentially what Nvidia has been experiencing so is this the event that can get them to $1,000 a share if they say the right thing I I mean look I don't think anybody's going to walk out of this event feeling less bullish on AI and nvidia's opportunity than they felt going in right that that's clear um I I I fully expect them to sound very very positive I fully expect them to have very good things to say about their product road map and and everything else that they're that they're that they're playing in um look the Stock's up 70% year to date it tripled last year so and it's Consolidated a little bit I have no problem believing though that the stock can get to those kinds of levels regardless of what happens like after after next week so we we we we'll see but um in in long story short like like I said nobody's going to walk out of these meetings feeling less positive about the stock in the company I think then they felt going into it Stacy you have a price target of $1,000 for the stock do you think that at $1,000 we see this rumored split take place and what does that do at least at a psychological level if we do see a split H they did a split um oh I don't know it was a couple of years back I think the I can't even remember the stock was I don't remember $600 maybe $400 I can't remember but they did one before they sort of attributed back then to make easier like on the employees you know some some people will will look at at Splits as making it easier for retail to buy I don't think it's that important I mean people can buy fractional shares today it's more psychological than anything else yeah I don't read that much into it I actually don't care if they split the stock or not um and I have no idea if it's $1 thousand dollar if they'll feel like splitting it or not it doesn't in my mind doesn't matter that much I mean but you know look I'm I'm not I'm not um you know I'm not one of the uh the investors like playing this thing on Reddit either so I I don't know yeah Stacey we did a quick Google search here the four for one uh split what most recent was back in 2021 let's talk about that upside because clearly you're a bull on Nvidia right now there's lot to talk about what is even going to stop this if anything can stop it before it gets to 3 trillion what do you think that timeline looks like well I think it's important to think about the opportunity that's in front of them and and and remember we are very very early in the days of of of generative Ai and in large language models and everything else and you can we we've we've done the math on this you can look at the amount of computing power that is required even to serve up that the stuff that's already happening and and it is massive right um we're just scratching the surface on on what can be done with this and we're still very early on in the days of developing business models Jensen has already also talked about um a broader Trend toward accelerated Computing the the historical drivers of efficiency in the world's data centers whether it was Mo's law or the shift from mainframes to standard x86 or or virtualization or the move to the cloud or all that stuff it's all done you have to do something else if you want to keep driving efficiency and and and this sort of heterogeneous acceleration offloading workloads to other types of silicon at much higher efficiencies is still going on and Jensen has talked about you know there's a trillion dollars of installed data Center infrastructure out there that is not accelerated that overtime will be they actually think that number goes to two trillion and if you sort of run through the math of what that could mean for how big this could get over the next call it five years or 10 years I am convinced that in five years or 10 years we will be talking about numbers for these guys that are materially higher than what we are talking about today if you look at the current valuation even on today's numbers and the numbers are are probably still headed higher frankly it's not that expensive it's in the mid-30s like Ford price to Bo earings it is the cheapest of all the AI High stocks um and it's probably got the the best like opportunity and product road map and runway in front of them of all of them so again I have no I don't know when it hits three trillion who who knows but I have no problem believing that as we go forward over time it won't be a straight line I'm sure but but over time I think we'll be talking about numbers and opportunities that are quite a bit bigger than even now what we're talking about today you know just lastly while we've got you Stacy how does Nvidia avoid becoming a political pwn this election season because well they already are probably right I I mean we we've looked at you know clearly there are have been sanctions and Export controls that have been put on on their ability to sell in China and and at the current moment they really can't sell very much of anything into China today like that that's been cut off they're developing new products um that will come in below some of the performance threshold and enable them to sell but I mean clearly already their opportunity unfortunately in China is going to be a lot lower than it would have been otherwise and I mean you got to play the game by whatever the rules are they'll have to do that but I think if you think a little more generally AI I I think is becoming much more of a sovereign uh effort it is a national security issue I think for any country um the companies actually talked about we've actually started to see like various countries in the world start to talk about building their own AI infrastructure and AI clouds um and that is something that I think actually will be a positive for them like like you'll have Sovereign entities that they can buy this stuff and deploy this stuff but clearly it's already a national security issue I mean that that's that's not new it's already here Stacy Raskin who is The Bernstein managing director and Senior analyst talking all things inidia we know you'll be you'll be at the conference yeah I'll be there you bet all right excellent we we expect some live Tweeting or Xing or posting whatever we're calling it these days thanks so much Stacy |
1t7_jd9fpXA | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1t7_jd9fpXA | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Market strategist sees 'Fed rate cuts kicking off in June' | fresh economic data could be giving the FED more reasons to delay interest rate cuts the unemployment rate ticked up slightly in February to 3.9% but still remains at a historically low level in general here that jobs report was followed up by two hotter than expected inflation prints consumer prices and producer prices both ticking higher in February recent data it's causing investors to pull back on Fed rate cut bets our next guest recently adjusted his expectations for the Federal Reserve joining us now we've got Blake qun here Live In Living Color RBC Capital markets head of us rates strategy here we're trying to toss around and and just make sense of coming into this year the chat the commentary was around six to seven Cuts maybe and now we're sitting at what like zero to three Cuts maybe so what from your perview has changed so significantly and what does this mean for the potential amount of cuts yeah to be fair we thought the pricing kind of at the end of the year in into January was probably a little excessive I think markets uh got a little ahead of themselves with some comments out of Waller and pal I think those were over interpreted to think that cuts were coming I think they were just kind of um you know hinting that the conversation was changing towards Cuts they weren't saying hey we we are you know asked to do this in by March um you know we've seen The Cutting Cycles uh kicking off in June um we still see it kicking off in June so I think the data that we've gotten hasn't necessarily pushed that back where we've seen the change is really in the pace that they're going to go afterwards um you know I think the Improvement that we've already seen on the inflation side of the picture is enough uh to give the FED uh someon reason to start pulling back on rates particularly when you think of things from a real rate perspective just given inflation has fallen uh you know those real rates are are tighter just because the inflation component has gone down so I think that's enough for them to start the process but when you have Labor Market data and growth data so resilient I think it really takes away the urgency to to move rates uh you know more quickly so that's why we've gone from that five cut scenario where they were cutting every meeting after June to every other meeting where it's really just three so like what does that then tell us just about action that we're likely going to see within the bond market because taking a look at the massive selloff that we got yesterday yield spiking higher is there much more room then to the upside do you think for yields I think we're pretty well priced to be honest I mean we I still probably uh am bias towards that short position I think um you know just talking to investors uh I was on the west coast earlier this week and talking to a lot of investors out there and I still think there's a desire uh to lean long into the market so I think a lot of them are position long and I think if we see you know 10year yield back up to that kind of 430 450 type range there are people there that will support that market um and also I just think um overall we're in a pretty good place as far as fed pricing so um you know you always do have to think about the balance of risks around the FED pricing it's never really that you can look at fed pricing and say that's exactly what markets are expecting their price they're always going to be pricing in some risk of a greater slowdown um that's going to kind of keep those yields from rising too much in my view and so as we think about whether or not you know the the number of cuts given that the estimate has changed now significantly from the start of the year does that mean that we've seen the fed or should believe the FED has been able to pull off a soft Landing here I think the soft Landing is consensus I mean we we see the soft Landing I think the real question for us and and you know to be honest with you when we changed our fed call I think there was more interest in how we changed our 2025 figure than actually our 2024 figure because where's the 2025 figure so we have now only have two cuts in 24 um we're kind of leaning towards I think uh this kind of 94 to 98 type of situation where the markets really did kind of move sideways for a very long time the FED cut 75 basis points you know just to be cautious several times during that span uh but they would cut 75 and then stay you know stay put for for quite a while after that to see how things to see how things went I think we could see something similar this time around so um I I think there's been actually more interest in that kind of side of things how how it's shaping up in 25 and um you know whether those risks are really you know could there be a re acceleration could there be another leg of an expansion in 25 or are we going to see more downside risk there I think there's almost more interests coming in 25 now where that that terminal rate is like a very short-term question here about with the FED meeting next week we're going to be hearing from pal what do you expect I guess given the tone that we could hear and what the reaction is going to be uh within the bond market so I think everybody's focused on the dots how many Cuts we're going to show um that's been all the conversations that I've had over the last week around the fomc meeting um you know they they did show three Cuts in the December SCP that's the median dot was it three cuts um there were only two PE it only takes two people that were on that median dot to move their estimate to pull the median up so that median is not very well protected it could move very very easily um I actually lean towards them moving uh moving that to to two cuts uh which I think is a little out of consensus I think consensus is generally right now for that to stay the same uh a lot of the comments we got uh in between the January and February uh CPI data um they seem to be kind of writing off the strength in the January CPI data and saying hey you know there's going to be bumps along the way we're still fine three Cuts still probably the best uh guess of where we're going um know I I I think they might have been hoping for some relief in the February CPI data um it did not provide it you know there was no I I I really don't think it provided evidence that we can write off January as idiosyncratic or kind of a oneoff um so I think they're left with two inflation prints that really don't give them the confidence that they wanted to see and I um you know I I think because of that we only need two people to move and um I think that inflation data is going to be enough to tip two of those dots and we're going to see that Medium move to two in which case I think the markets would react to that relatively hawkish and some of the inflation data that the FED is evaluating and especially in the stickiest parts of inflation you think about the services and and specifically within shelter costs and perhaps energy areas where the FED doesn't necessarily have a lever to pull or control at least most immediately here should they be over indexing in other areas of the data that they're evaluating then yeah I mean so when I talk about the February data um it wasn't that the headline print was necessarily out of consensus it was really some of those components and when you start looking at how the print um you know looked on on some of these various uh uh subcomponents for one we we did see the diffusion index still going up so it just means the number of categories that are seeing some type of inflation is still going up so it's broadening out um the other thing is the super core as they call it which you know is that Services X housing and it did come back from that very very high print um in January but it's still at a very elevated level so I I think that um is something that at least gives the FED a little bit of PA we we always kind of knew that Goods prices were going to start the disinflation that we were seeing there was going to start slowing that drove a lot of what we got in 2023 and the FED kind of understood markets understood that that's going to slow down and really the the other side Services is going to have to start picking up and giving us more of that disinflationary pressure um and this the prince we've gotten the first two months of this year really did not show us that that's happening |
wKDgL4auTas | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKDgL4auTas | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Nvidia: Fun facts about the company's origin, name and more | well nvidia's GTC conference starts Monday so what better way to get prepared than with a few facts about the company and its CEO Jensen Hong that you might not already know first have you ever wondered where the company's name came from well it started with the letters n and V that's what three co-founders would label all their documents to signify next version eventually the company was ready to have a name so the three looked for four words out there using those two letters they found the Latin word for envy and then named their company NVIDIA and when it came to to label the first graphic Processing Unit Nvidia held a name that chip contest in 1999 12,000 users sent in names and eventually GeForce was selected seven users received the GPU for participating there and after that you know nvidia's stock continued to move higher most notably as we think about going forward from here what this means for the naming of future products what the company does with different contests I don't know but that's one way they engage users very early on it is one way to engage users it's also a great way to get keep people very interested within your company you mentioned the fact that the stock really started to take off well once the stock hit $100 per share for the first time Jensen Swang actually got a tattoo designed around the company's logo talking about going all in tatted on your company logo and it's paying off right now he should have to get a new tattoo every every time they Eclipse a new $100 marker and the stock goes up L tattoos he'd have full full sleeve depending on how large of those tattoos are especially considering the splits well anyway passion for chips runs in the family Jensen Wong's children currently work at Nvidia and get this Lisa Sue AMD CEO is Jensen Hong's first cousin once removed invite me to the barbecue folks I'm just trying to slide through I'll bring some good food I know well it's probably going to be one heck of a fancy barbecue if we're talking about that there but I mean clearly though you were talking about the fact that it runs in the family there is a lot of excitement surrounding the ship sector what exactly Nvidia has done to really revolutionize that AMD obviously under Lisa Sue so just another fun fact I never knew that actually until you just said it yeah the chip Bowl looks different at that family Barbecue for sure here ha but all right anyway |
mBzr6gNS9OE | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBzr6gNS9OE | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Okta CEO talks AI and the rise ransomware attacks | companies across Industries continue to navigate challenges of ransomware attacks just this year russian-backed attackers have targeted two major companies United Health groups change Healthcare and Tech Titan Microsoft for more on the rise in cyber crime we're joined by Todd McKinnon who is the OCTA co-founder and chief executive officer Todd great to speak with you as always and and scratch uh well get some time with you uh you know first and foremost what what is really prompting this rise in cyber attacks that we're seeing in additional threats well as we as an industry and an economy and a society move more and more information and transactions online and reap the benefits of that and ease of use and productivity for our companies that's also where the V that's also where the uh the bad guys can make money and that's where they're going after these things you you you mentioned a couple examples and it's where the money is it's where the vulnerabilities are and that's where they're going and that's what we have to do as an industry is defend that so Todd how do you defend that how do you navigate what what is an escalation here within the landscape and then also on the flip side just what is that then doing for demand for your product you think it would be a real uptick in demand well the the cyber security industry as a whole is a is a large and groin industry the the specific part of it we play in which is called the identity management part of cyber security is even more important than it was five years ago or 10 years ago and that's because as more things move online the old Technologies like firewalls and and virtual private networks aren't going to cut it you have to have a strong identity system and when you look at these attacks in fact you mentioned a couple examples the Microsoft attack or the United Healthcare uh group attack over 80% of them involve a compromised identity so there's somewhere in that chain of attack there's an account that's taken over there's a insecure password that's used that the threat actors compromise and and use that to either initially land the attack or to uh to promote the attack within within the infrastructure so identity is a big part of the defense and that's why uh we're so important to our customers stepping up helping them defend themselves against these ident identity based attacks you know Todd when we think about how much we've all kind of leaned into two-factor authentication as we need more safety how far away are we from now having to think about three- Factor authentication I think there's I would when we talk about identity-based attacks I think the first challenge is is knowing the breadth of the accounts and the identities companies have in their ecosystem so when you're talking about a company's corporate it environment especially for a sizable company anyone over you know a couple hundred employees it's pretty daunting to know all of the systems and networks and SAS applications and data centers and servers in those data centers trying to get a catalog of it all and comprehensively have a way and an approach to manage all of that that's the first Challenge and then the second challenge as you mentioned is not only to make sure that there's the right types of authentication methods on those accounts you know making sure they're very secure like the modern authentic authentication methods aren't passwords it's things like Biometrics so you can just log into your system by using your fingerprint or your or or a face ID um passwords are really not the modern way to do it they're they're the most vulnerable the most secure so comprehensive knowledge of what you have in your ecosystem and then the ability to put the right strong level of of checking that the person is who they say they are on each of those accounts that's what identity management is and that's why demand for our products is is high D speaking about demand for your product also scaling the business you recently closed one of your recent acquisitions talk to us just about how that then positions you for further long-term profitable growth and what that Runway looks like for OCTA we're very excited about the product road map and it's it's moving the direction that that I just spoke about so uh moving from from a a platform that can comprehensively connect employees to all of their technology and customers to all all the technology whether it's a new mobile app or a website a company is building moving more toward a a product suite and a platform that can have visibility into into the entire internal set of services and Cloud servers and on- premise servers and manage all all of the um accounts in those servers and give the companies a comprehensive view of all potential identity based threats across the environment that's that's what we're looking to do and that's what customers are responding with with with a healthy demand in the environment hey Todd while we have you uh you know we were able to speak with one of your industry uh colleagues more broadly CEO over at crowdstrike George curs and and we had to ask about this election season and I wonder from your perview the role that's cyber security plays in global elections where you've got almost half of the world's population that it's expected to go to the polls and to the ballots I mean it's not just elections I mean it's and it's not just any time of year it's it's a constant thing now with so many more processes and workflows moving online uh and we talk about not only the actual voting part of Elections which is not online yet in most cases but a lot of the media and a lot of the influence of as voters go to the polls what where they get their information we're as an industry we're we're we're really focused on making sure we know what authentic information is online and a lot of that comes down to Identity how do you know is it a bot on X that's posting or is it a real person how do you know um where the actual content is coming from that is kind of supporting different candidates and supporting different causes that's an identity problem and uh both OCTA and the industry can help make sure that those things are genuine and that voters know what they're really when they're learning about things they know it's accurate and complete and they can make the right decisions at the polls all right Tod McKinnon great to have you here octa's co-founder and chief executive officer thanks so much Todd thank you |
utS8vaXzCMg | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utS8vaXzCMg | 2024-03-15 00:00:00 | Yahoo Finance | Consumer sentiment drops slightly in March | let's get to some breaking news that we have the preliminary reading on consumer sentiment coming in below expectations falling in the month of March to 76.5 that was versus a prior month reading of 76.9 the median estimate was for 77.1 when it comes to some of the commentary within this report saying that small improvements in personal finances those were offset by Modest declines and expectations for business conditions also long run inflation expectations remained at 2.9% for the fourth month in a row staying within that narrow range that we've seen of 2.9 to 3.1% which it has been in that range in 29 of the last 32 months so that puts it in perspective but again consumers then toit falling on that month-over-month basis the index dropping to 76.5 yeah two interesting words that stick out to me from this holding pattern consumer views stabilizing into a holding pattern according to the survey of consumers director Joan Shu who had said that consumers perceived few signals that the economy is currently improving or deteriorating indeed many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy at this juncture particularly the long-term here pending the results of this November's election here so that an interesting call that I believe is perhaps the first time that we've seen the general election call at least this year be weaved into the survey of consumers here so uh again the preliminary reading here six uh 76.5 for the month of March |