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Blockchain mechanism and distributional characteristics of cryptos
It regulates the creation rate of a block and maintains a certain amount of outputs of a blockchain.
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Such a mechanism is commonly seen in a PoW framework.
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An example from Bitcoin is shown in Figure 2 where its diculty adjustment algorithm, known as DAA, modi es the diculty every 2016 blocks to meet target block time of 10 minutes.
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2.2 Time Series Data The data applied in this paper are collected from Bitinfocharts which is available at https://bitinfocharts.com/.
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These time series are composed of data points observed daily from the genesis date of each crypto.
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The lengths of these time series are thus varied coin by coin, but as explained in the section 2.2, we continue to use the whole time series for each coin.
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Price: Much previous literature has been triggered by the substantial uctuations in crypto 7 Figure 2: Bitcoin's diculty adjustment toward actual block time.
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Blockchain mechanism - plotting prices.
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In this study we investigate 18 crypto prices in USD on daily time series.
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Among these 18 cryptos, Bitcoin has been dominant and Reddcoin has the lowest price on balance as seen in Figure 3.
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We characterise these price time series in Table 1.
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Most of these coins (i.e., Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash) have high uctuations in price; while some coins (i.e., XRP, Blackcoin) tends to be steady.
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Figure 3: Time series of prices of the 18 cryptos Blockchain mechanism plotting 8 Actual block time: It is the mean time required in minutes for each day to create the next block.
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In other words, it is the average amount of time for the day a user has to wait, after broadcasting their transaction, to see this transaction appear on the blockchain.
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Some literature also refers it as con rmation time.
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It can be considered as a service level indicator for cryptos which should be maintained by underlying mechanisms.
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Most of the coins discussed in this paper tend to have lower block time compared with Bitcoin as seen in Figure 4.
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Also, many coins show outliers in observations and this can indicate that the extreme events appear in the blockchain system.
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The underlying mechanisms can be ine ective to accommodate the current system demand.
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The distributional characteristics for time series of actual block time are presented in Table 2.
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The data for XRP are missing but its designed block time is around 5 second per transaction.
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Figure 4: Actual block time in minutes.
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Blockchain mechanism plotting 9 Actual block size: It is de ned as the average actual size "usage" of a single block in data storage for one day.
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Since a block is is comprised of transaction data, it can represent the status of how a cryptocurrency mechanism allocates transactions to a block.
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In this study, as introduced in Section 1, we consider it as an indicator for the stableness of scalability of a crypto.
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In Figure 5 shows that most of the cryptos under study have smaller block size usage than Bitcoin, except Bitcoin SV.
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The plot also depicts that almost all the coins have outliers.
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These outliers can lead to the imbalance in transaction fee and reward which can in uence the ecosystem of a crypto.
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The characteristics for block size time series are shown in Table 3.
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XRP does not have typical blockchain structure, hence, there is no block size data in the study.
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The data for Peercoin are missing.
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Figure 5: Actual block size in megabytes.
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Blockchain mechanism plotting 10 3 Methodology In order to investigate the relationship between underlying blockchain mechanism of cryptocur- rencies and the distributional characteristics of cryptos as a proxy of behaviour, we aim to group them into number of clusters and scrutinise the compositions of features in each group.
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These blockchain-based features manifest the underlying mechanism of how the cryptos operate trans- actions on their chains, and subsequently govern the price, actual block size and block time.
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As described in the previous section, we use the time series data of 18 di erent cryptos with a range of di erent mechanisms.
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The time series data available for the cryptos is subject to numerous limitations.
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The most important one of them is that di erent coins were introduced at di erent time points, therefore, the data available for each coin has di erent lengths.
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For the clustering problems (Aghabozorgi et al., 2015), de ning the distance metric between points in time series with various lengths is not conventional.
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For many analytical problems, this issue is easily tackled by truncating the time series to the shared sample period.
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We refrain from doing so because, in the analysis of cryptocurrency prices, the evolution of the data in time is highly crucial for an investigation in the short term and long term dynamics and therefore, truncating the time series would lead to loss of important information.
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Hence, we deal with the time series data of cryptos with di erent lengths and do not directly impose a distance metric on the input data points.
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Furthermore, characterising the behaviour of a time series in terms of a single quantitative attribute (such as range based volatility) has its own limitations.
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The chosen attribute usually captures the dynamics of time series in one particular aspect, which may not be sucient to encompass an entire behaviour or introduces a biased assessment.
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This becomes particularly true in the problems of crypto classi cation and clustering where these attributes, used as a similarity measure, are very diverse, resulting in weak robustness in the results.
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To cope with these limitations, we resort to the characteristic based clustering method proposed by Wang et al.
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(2005).
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It was recently applied by Pele et al.
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(2020) for classifying cryptos in order to 11 distinguish them from traditional assets.
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This methods recommends to incorporate various global measures describing the structural characteristics of a time series for a clustering problem.
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These global measures are obtained by applying statistical operations that best represent the underlying characteristics.
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Also, by extracting a set of measures from the original time series we simply bypass the issue of de ning a distance metric.
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It's understood that the global measures are domain- speci c.
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Employing a greedy search algorithm, Wang et al.
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(2005) selects the pivotal features in the clustering tasks.
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In our case, we import the experts' discretion on the choice of features as distributional characteristics which best represent the dynamics of cryptocurrencies.
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We choose a variety of measures for our analysis.
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Starting from the rst four moments and quantiles that characterises the distribution and symmetry of the data, we include the statistics for concluding the global structure such as global optimum, as well as the measures for long term dependencies, risk and noise.
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The selected features are mean, standard deviation, skewness, kur- tosis, maximum, minimum, rst quartile, median, third quartile, 1% and 5% extreme quantiles as a measure of downside risk, linear trend, intercept, autocorrelation for long term dependency, self-similarity using Hurst exponent and chaos using Lyaponav's exponents.
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We further extend the methodology by including the power spectrum of time series as an addi- tional measure.
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The power spectrum is obtained in this work using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT).
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For computational ease, discrete fourier transform (DFT) has been formalised as a linear operator that maps the data points in a discrete input signal Xfx1;x2;;xngto the frequency domain f=ff1;f2;fng.
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For a given time series Xofntime points, sine and cosine functions are used to get the coecients !n=e2i=and the frequencies are calculated using the matrix multiplication: 12 2 666666666664f1 f2 f3 ...
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fn3 777777777775=2 6666666666641 1 1  1 1!n!2 n!n1 n 1!2 n!4 n!2(n1) n ...............
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1!n1 n!2(n1) n!(n1)2 n3 7777777777752 666666666664x1 x2 x3 ...
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xn3 777777777775(1) This matrix multiplication involves O(n2) and makes DFT computationally expensive.
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FFT is a fast algorithm to compute DFT using only O(nlogn) operations (Brunton and Kutz, 2019).
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A simple tcommand in python computes the FFT of the given time signal.
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The power spectrum of this signal is the normalised squared magnitude of the fand it indicates how much variance of the initial space each frequency explains (Brunton and Kutz, 2019).
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Including the power spectrum as a feature for characteristic based clustering allows capturing the variability in the time signal that is not explained by any other measure.
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Accumulating all the aforementioned features in a vector gives in a reduced dimensional rep- resentation of time series of each crypto.
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These vectors are then used to cluster the cryptos into groups using spectral clustering.
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Spectral clustering exploits the eigenvalues of similarity matrix to cluster and results in more balanced clusters than other techniques that were employed during the process.
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For details related to spectral clustering, the readers are recommended to follow the tutorial on spectral clustering by von Luxburg (2006).
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The results of the above methodology are discussed in detail in the next section.
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4 Empirical Evidence In this section, we showcase the result from the characteristic based clustering individually on the crypto price and operational features{which are constructed with price, block size "scalability" and block time "service level" time series.
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We explore the clustering results and classify them with the underlying mechanisms of the investigated 18 cryptos.
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The 18 cryptos are: Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold, Bitcoin SV, Blackcoin , Dash, Dogecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Feathercoin, 13 Litecoin, Monero, Novacoin, Peercoin, Reddcoin, Vertcoin, XRP, and Zcash.
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We calculate the characteristics for each of these cryptos for prices, block size and block time separately.
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The results of all other attributes except the FFT are summarised in Tables 1, 2, 3 correspondingly in Appendix.
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Note that the data for XRP are not available for the block size and block time, and for Peercoin block size is missing as described before in Section 3.
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After calculating the attributes and FFT power spectrum described in section 2.2, the feature space is 216 dimensional (200 dimensional vector of power spectrum and 16 characteristics), vi- sualisation of which is not possible.
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We project the feature space into a three dimensional space using principle component analysis (PCA), and the results of which are exhibited for an intuitive understanding.
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We discuss each of the clustering in detail below.
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Moreover, in order to avoid a monopoly outcome and sustain a certain level of interpretability, we impose the maximum number of the clusters to avoid a single coin case in each cluster.
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4.1 Clustering with crypto prices Table 1 shows that as expected, Bitcoin has the highest average price and highest standard deviation, due to high magnitude of its prices.
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The VaR99 and VaR95 for Bitcoin are, however, very low, showing a low downside risk of Bitcoin.
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On the contrary, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Bitcoin Gold and Zcash all show high value at risk.
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This could be due to low persistence of risk shocks (de Souza, 2019; Katsiampa et al., 2019).
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The high positive coecients of self similarity for all the coins show high dependency on the previous time values.
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The high autocorrelation further con rms the presence of long term dependencies of the time series.
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The Lyaponov exponent as a measure of chaos is greater than 0 for all the time series which shows unstable dynamics throughout the prices of cryptos.
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The characteristics of Dogecoin in Table 1 assume very low values, unlike any other coin, because the prices of Dogecoin are very low, despite it being a popular coin.
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This can be due to high supply of the coin with no limit on the total number of coins created.
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The coin also has no technical innovations, which is considered as one of the reasons why the coin has such small price.
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Hence, 14 the uncontrolled underlying mechanism of the coin has signi cant impact on the prices, despite the high trading volumes of the coin.
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Same can be concluded for XRP and Reddcoin, which also have a very high maximum supply that is re ected in their very low prices.
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Using characteristic based clustering on price time series, we have the result with 5 clusters as below: 0.
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Bitcoin, Dash 1.
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Bitcoin SV, Zcash 2.
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Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold 3.
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