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Etsy Incorporated (NASDAQ:ETSY)
Q4 2015 Earnings Conference Call
February 23, 2016 05:30 PM ET
Executives
Jennifer Beugelmans - VP, IR
Chad Dickerson - CEO
Kristina Salen - CFO
Analysts
Brian Nowak - Morgan Stanley
Blake Harper - Topeka Capital
Darren Aftahi - Roth Capital
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Etsy Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2015 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded.
I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference, Jennifer Beugelmans, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin ma’am.
Jennifer Beugelmans
Thank you. And welcome to Etsy fourth quarter and full year 2015 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Chad Dickerson, CEO, and Kristina Salen, CFO.
Before we get started, just a reminder that our remarks today include forward-looking statements relating to our financial performance and results of operations, business strategy, guidance, mission, product roadmap and potential future growth. Our actual results may be materially different. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties which are described in our press release today and in our 10-Q filed with the SEC on November 03, 2015. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on our beliefs and assumptions today and we don't have any obligation to update them.
Also during the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's press release which you can find on our Investor Relations Web site. A link to the replay of this call will also be available there and if you'd prefer to access the replay via phone, you can find that information in the press release as well.
With that, I'll turn the call over to Chad. Chad?
Chad Dickerson
Thanks, Jennifer, and good afternoon everyone. So I am excited to talk to you about the progress Etsy’s made in 2015, our plans for 2016 and our financial goals through 2018. In the fourth quarter, our GMS was more than $741 million and our revenue was nearly $88 million. For the full year GMS reached nearly $2.4 billion and revenue was more than $273 million.
We believe our strong results reflect the vitality of Etsy’s community and our team’s strong execution. Throughout 2015, our community continued to grow and we ended this year with more than 24 million in active buyers and nearly 1.6 million in active sellers. In 2015 we continue to put the building blocks in place that we believe will set us up for sustainable long-term growth.
Buyers on Etsy’s platform remain uniquely loyal to the brand. In 2015, 81% of our GMS came from repeat purchases made by new, retained, and reactivated buyers. This was up from 78% in 2014. Also in 2015, approximately 47% of our active buyers made two or more purchases in the previous 12 months, up slightly from 2014. We believe that these two data points shed important light on our long-term growth opportunity. First, we know that Etsy buyers are loyal and have continued to make repeat purchases over a long period of time.
Second, with fewer than 50% of our active buyers making multiple purchases in a single year over the long-term we believe we’ve made or we have substantial opportunity to drive engagement which ultimately should lead to increased purchase frequency. Our community of sellers and buyers who are so important to our long-term success continue to show their loyalty to Etsy. Kristina will provide you with new 2012 seller and buyer cohort data that further demonstrate their commitment to our platform.
With approximately 90% of our traffic coming from organic channels, Etsy’s brand clearly resonates with buyers. During our third quarter earnings call we talked about our strategy to implement a multichannel holiday campaign to grow brand awareness beyond our organic channels and to drive engagement throughout the fourth quarter holiday season. We ran a coordinated campaign across paid and non-paid channels that helped our sellers to have a great holiday season. We saw strong returns on our digital marketing budget and as Kristina will describe, paid GMS growth that significantly outpaced organic GMS growth.
More importantly, our overall GMS growth accelerated as we moved through the holiday season in November and December evidence of the successful brand campaign. For the first time ever, we ran a global holiday campaign that featured merchandised pages and gift guides across key categories and was coordinated across mobile apps, desktop and global Web. We ran a cost effective video ad on Facebook and YouTube and were featured on Ellen Degeneres Show’s 12 days of Christmas segment.
We complement our brand campaign with a robust e-mail and social media effort that included nearly 20 million push notifications nearly 900 million e-mails and Facebook and Instagram social media campaigns. 2015 was a strong year of growth for Etsy and I believe we're executing the right strategy to build sustainable growth for the long-term. So let me take the next few minutes to talk about what we have recently achieved in each of our key initiatives and some of the upcoming milestones that will be indicative of our continued forward progress.
Let's start with Etsy every day, mobile is at the heart of this initiative and in just one year we improved the Etsy mobile experience from end-to-end. We developed products and tools that allow our buyers and sellers to connect and transact more seamlessly across multiple devices, countries and currencies. Our top focus in 2015 was to help buyers find and use our beautiful Etsy apps and connect them directly to an easier and more fun than ever mobile experience. We believe this foundational work improved the experience across the buyer journey and contributed directly to our apps GMS growth which grew well over 50% in 2015.
Our first step included the work we did around deep linking and app indexing which allows us to connect shoppers directly to our apps. Once in the app we made it easy to get started with social sign up and sign in via Facebook and Google. We also introduced an important update called exploratory search, this enhancement helps buyers to more easily find the items they're looking for on Etsy by making search results and navigation more intuitive to buyers, who can now browse by category, feature or product type.
Finally, we expanded the checkout experience using Etsy’s direct checkout platform which now offers integrated Apple Pay, Google Wallet, PayPal and Express Checkout payment options. We believe these core improvements and others led to our 4.5 star rating in the Apple app store up from roughly 2.5 stars prior to this work and also contributed to the continued growth of app downloads which reached 31.8 million as of December 31st. While we're still in the early innings on mobile we believe that we've made an important progress in a relatively short period of time. The impact of this work is best seen in the year-over-year narrowing of the gap between mobile visits and mobile GMS.
We began to see this in the third quarter and it continued in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter 61% of our visits and 44% of our GMS came to Etsy through a mobile device. We believe we can continue to close the gaps between mobile visits and mobile GMS and benefit from the emerging trends in mobile commerce. Our efforts in mobile in 2015 moved the ball forward for Etsy and provided strong momentum as we head into 2015. This year we plan to launch even more mobile products, tools and services that address the needs of our diverse community of sellers and buyers. As our teams continue to execute on our exciting 2016 product road map, you should expect to see more enhancements to help Etsy sellers or Etsy buyers connect with sellers in new ways and enable them to more easily find a unique item they're searching for, at just the right time.
Turning to our international initiatives to build more local marketplaces globally, we made our first international sale in our first week of business over a decade ago and Etsy global business has grown since then. Even with that growth we believe we're only at the beginning when it comes to our international strategy. In the fourth quarter 29.2% of our GMS with some international sales roughly flat with the third quarter, as we've discussed in previous quarters, currency has a direct translational impact on our results and we believe an indirect impact on the behaviour of international buyers. We're working hard to offset these macro currency challenges by building local marketplaces and ecosystems.
Our continued strong growth in the UK reflects the early success of this strategy. In the fourth quarter in nearly half to GMS in the UK works on UK buyers purchasing from UK sellers, evidence that we're building a local marketplace within the country. To give you some prospective in the U.S. our most mature market for approximately 78% of GMS is from transactions between U.S. buyers and sellers. Purchases by UK buyers and UK sellers grew more than 69% year-over-year nearly 7 times the growth rate of purchases made by UK buyers and sellers outside of the UK in the quarter.
We believe that new enhancements like the boost of domestic items within search which we launched in the UK in the fourth quarter encouraged the factor being of particularly helpful during the holiday season. GMS between international buyers and sellers in the same country is one of our smallest GMS buckets, so we believe we have substantial Greenfield opportunity to grow in local marketplaces internationally.
In 2016 we'll continue to invest in local marketing content and program tools to expand our international community and broaden on our global platform. Great examples of these efforts are already underway are programs like Etsy Resolution and Etsy Made Local. Etsy Resolution is our seller acquisition campaign aimed at driving new seller growth in our international markets. We've launched this four week mentoring program at the end of January and more than 26,000 participants signed up within the first week. Etsy Made Local was a series of local markets organized by Etsy seller teams, our Etsy Made Local events in Australia were particularly successful and attracted 65,000 people across the country.
Turning now to our high impact seller services, which represented 54% of our revenue in the fourth quarter, you may recall that we launched the first of our three seller services late in 2011 and in less than five years our three services now make up the majority of our revenue base. We believe this rapid growth demonstrates our ability to address the pain points that sellers encounter whether they’re just starting out and are trying to grow. We intend to continue to grow seller services revenue by expanding the geographic reach of existing services, enhancing the functionality of our existing services, and building new services.
We have two recent examples that demonstrate our execution on this strategy. At the end of October we enhanced the functionality of direct checkout by fully integrating PayPal into our service and making it even easier for buyers and sellers around the world to seamlessly transact. Following this integration, we saw direct checkout revenue growth accelerate in the fourth quarter. And in early 2016, we enhanced direct checkout even further by scanning into an additional 12 countries and integrating Apple Pay into our express checkout option.
As we look ahead to 2016, we intend to launch a new seller service. While we’re not announcing the specifics of this new service today, we remain focused on helping our sellers with the business related task such as inventory management, shipping, customer service, marketing and accounting. As we outlined in our IPO perspectives for every hour an Etsy seller spends making her product, she spends another on these tasks and we want to help our sellers find more time to create. So our product roadmap is focused on services that will help her manage these types of tasks, increase velocity of our marketplace and at scale provide an attractive profit opportunity for Etsy which we can reinvest back into our business and our community.
As we think about our longer term roadmap for seller services, we’re looking at opportunities to support our sellers wherever and however they chose to bring their products to market. As we said before, based on our surveys and research, we know that more than 50% of our sellers sell in channels other than Etsy even though Etsy is their largest source of income. Other channels include craft fair, their own Web sites and retail outlets just to name a few. In the same way that these other channels provide new opportunities for them to seller their products, they also add to the administrative workload. We believe we can develop tools and services to help our sellers better manage these multiple sales channels. Overtime this presents a significant opportunity for Etsy to enhance the value of our platform for our sellers and to expand our addressable market opportunity.
Finally, I want to touch on our efforts to expand the Etsy economy which focused on broadening the impact of our platform by bringing new constituents into our community. We talked to you before about Etsy Manufacturing and Etsy Wholesale and our long-term vision for their contributions to our ecosystem. As we announced last quarter we launched Etsy Manufacturing in direct response to feedback from our sellers who told us they wanted to grow their businesses they were having difficulty finding production partners with similar values. Through our platform these sellers can now connect with values aligned manufacturers that range from individuals to emerging start ups to decade old family run factories. It’s still early days and to-date we have received around 700 applications from manufacturers to join the marketplace. Approximately 25% of those applicants have actually been from current Etsy sellers who are offering to help other sellers produce their products.
Throughout 2015, we also reached core milestones that we believe will help make Etsy Wholesale an important tool for our sellers in the years to come. First, we exited 2015 with nearly 11,000 retailers and more than 4,500 sellers signed up to participate in Wholesale. Our goal is to make Wholesale more accessible to creative entrepreneurs and to support these smaller independent retailers as creative business owners. Second, we introduced the Etsy Wholesale retailer commitments with our larger retail partners. Land of Nod, Lou & Grey, Whole Foods and our newest partner Macy's Herald Square with whom we launched the new Etsy shop on January 28th. These commitments are focused on supporting our seller community by reducing the operational and financial challenges they face when working with larger retailers.
While I am proud of what we’ve accomplished to-date the Etsy team and I are really focused on execution and excited about the opportunities and milestones yet to come. We believe we have the right strategy in place and passionate leaders to execute on it. We’ve made prudent investments to maximize the impact of this strategy. We also believe that we have an unrivaled understanding of the needs of creative entrepreneurs which will allow us to grow with each of them, supporting their individual needs. All of these factors give us confidence in our long-term growth potential and our ability to deliver value to all of our stakeholders.
In 2016 to recap this means the roadmap that includes products that will continue to encourage buyers to engage, browse, search, and discover unique items platform enhancements that will make it even easier for buyers and sellers to seamlessly and quickly transact and the new seller service that solves the pain point and moves us down the path toward our longer term goal of supporting our sellers wherever they put ecommerce. We’ll also be launching new tools and products to continue to support our international strategy to build local marketplaces and expand the Etsy economy.
So with that I’ll turn it over to Kristina to walk you through our 2015 results, and provide you with a bit more context on our three year financial guidance. Kristina?
Kristina Salen
Thanks Chad and hello to everyone joining us today. Just to note, unless I say so, all comparisons I’ll be referencing here are on a year-over-year basis.
Let’s start with GMS. During the fourth quarter of 2015, the Etsy marketplace generated $741.5 million in GMS up 21%. Growth in GMs was driven by growth in active sellers and active buyers. As Chad mentioned we had a very strong holiday season with GMS growth accelerating throughout the period. For the full year 2015 the Etsy market generated approximately $2.4 billion in GMS up nearly 24% year-over-year. At the end of the fourth quarter Etsy had 1.6 million active sellers up 15.5% and 24 million active buyers up 21%. Our community of sellers and buyers continues to grow at a healthy rate and we are releasing new cohort data that we believe demonstrates the stickiness of our platform.
So let me take a minute to remind you of how our cohorts work, staring with our seller cohort. In our IPO perspectives we told you that if we had 100 active sellers in 2011, 32% of these sellers would still have been active in 2014 four years later. In addition we also told you that the average GMS for 2011’s active sellers was $4,299 five times higher in 2014 than in 2011. We are pleased to see that these trends have continued in our 2012 seller and buyer cohorts. We would also note that year five data for our 2011 cohort is consistent with year four trends and early data indicates that our 2013 cohorts are behaving similarly.
The 2011 and 2012 data will be in our 10-K but let me walk you through the highlights for our 2012 cohorts. For the 2012 seller cohorts 32% of active sellers remained active four years later and their average GMS was $4,557 four times higher than it was in 2012. Our 2012 buyer cohort is also behaving in line with our 2011 buyer cohorts. Recall that at the end of 2014 45% of our 2011 active buyers remained active. In addition the average annual GMS for 2011 active buyer in 2014 was $195 or nearly 90% higher than it was in 2011. For the 2012 cohorts nearly 43% of our 2012 active buyers remained active in 2015 and their average GMS was $181 also up nearly 90% versus 2012.
As Chad mentioned in 2015 improved our mobile offering from end to end and we believe as a direct result we are now in the gap between mobile visits and mobile GMS. During the fourth quarter approximately 61% of our visits came to us from a mobile device which is up 500 basis points year-over-year and 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter. This growth continued to outpace the rate of growth on desktop. More importantly about 44% of our GMS came from a mobile device up to 600 basis points year-over-year and flat quarter-over-quarter.
Etsy’s international business continued to expand with international revenue growing nearly 31% in the fourth quarter. However percent international GMS was roughly flat at 29.3% in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter of this year and down from 30.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. As a reminder percent international GMS is a percent of total GMS from transactions where either the buyer or the seller is outside of the U.S. We continue to believe that we can grow percent international GMS overtime to represent 60% of our total GMS.
As we have discussed with you before we believe that currency exchange rates are directly and indirectly effecting Etsy's overall GMS growth rate and percent international GMS. During the fourth quarter GMS from international buyers purchasing from U.S. sellers declined approximately 13% year-over-year this is flat with the approximate 13% year-over-year decline we saw in the third quarter and informed our analysis of the impact of currency translation on international buyer behaviour. Based on the direct impact of currency on our non-U.S. dollar denominated GMS and on our assumptions surrounding the indirect impact of currency exchange rates on international buyer behaviour we believe that we saw a drag of approximately 2 percentage points on our overall GMS growth rate in the fourth quarter from currency.
Turning now to revenue during the fourth quarter total revenue was $87.9 million up 35% driven by growth in seller services revenue and to a lesser extent growth in marketplace revenue. Revenue for the full year was $273.5 million up nearly 40% compared to the 2014. Marketplace revenue grew 19.5% in the fourth quarter primarily due to the growth in transaction fee revenue and to a lesser extent growth in listing fee revenue. Seller services revenue was up 54% in the fourth quarter and revenue from each of our services grew faster than GMS and marketplace revenue.
This is primarily due to growth in revenue from direct checkout promoted listing. Promoted listings has continued to grow robustly and revenue growth in the fourth quarter in promoted listings was driven by higher click volume and overall improvements to promoted listings ad quality. We're also very pleased with the growth of direct checkout which benefited from our integration of Paypal into our payment service, and therefore as Chad mentioned sales growth rate accelerated in the quarter.
Following the integration at the end of October we saw a significant increase in the usage of direct checkout by our sellers, and notably direct check out grew slightly faster than promoted listing for the first time in 2015. Closing out the seller services discussion shipping labels revenue growth was driven by a combination of enhancements to the product and an increase in the overall number of orders shipped.
I now want to update you on the usage of our seller services during 2015. During 2015 48.1% of our active sellers used at least one seller service, 40.2% of our active sellers used direct checkout. 23.9% of our active sellers in the US and Canada where we offer shipping labels used that service and 16.7% of our active sellers used promoted listing. These stats reflect continued adoption of direct checkout and shipping labels and a slight tapering promoted listings usage which is what we expected. We think the tapering of promoted listings usage reflects the impact of our relaunch of the product and our move to a bided ad model that unlocks greater pricing potential and support both healthier seller ROI and a better buyer experience. We plan to continue to refine our advertising services to help a broader base of sellers over time.
Turning now to margins, gross profit for the fourth quarter was approximately $58 million, up 37% and the gross profit margin was nearly 65.6% up 70 basis points. As in the first three quarters of the year in the fourth quarter gross profits grew faster than revenue. This is due to the leverage we achieved in employee related and hosting and bandwidth cost, as well as continued robust growth of promoted listings which you may recall is a higher margin revenue stream.
Turning now to operating expenses, Etsy's total fourth quarter operating expenses were approximately $49 million up 17% year-over-year. Total operating expenses as a percent of revenue declined slightly to 56% in the fourth quarter compared with 65% last year.
We gained leverage on our operating expenses as a percent of revenue primarily due to reduced G&A expenses that we don't expect to repeat in the first quarter of 2016, and I'll discuss that further in a minute. For the full year 2015 operating expenses as a percent of revenue declined slightly to 65% compared with 66% in 2014.
Marketing expenses totaled $22.5 million up 54% representing 26% of total revenue versus 23% last year and 25% in the third quarter. This year-over-year growth in marketing spend decelerated meaningfully from the year-over-year growth in spend we reported for the third quarter of 2015 as well as compared with the fourth quarter of last year. It reflects the plateauing of growth in our digital marketing spend that we forecasted to you all last quarter.
As in previous quarters the growth in marketing expenses continued to be driven by digital marketing, which is primarily focused on Google product listing ads. During the fourth quarter digital marketing expenses were roughly $15 million up 86%. As we expected this was less than the approximate 95% growth in spending we saw in the third quarter. During the fourth quarter digital marketing spend continued to generate positive ROI based on our global attribution model and our paid GMS growth rate actually accelerated to 68% more than triple our reported GMS growth rate and favorably comparing to 59% paid GMS growth rate in the third quarter,
As we've shared with you before unique to an internet company archives [ph] approximately 90% of our traffic comes from organic channel. So it can be difficult externally to see the positive impact of our marketing investment on GMS growth strictly on a quarterly basis. Our marketing investments are guided by our two year lifetime value global attribution model, in which we make conservative assumptions about how paid traffic will perform compared with organic traffic. Since 2014 we have achieved a payback period of five quarters and we remain committed to achieving positive two year ROI at the aggregate company level on our marketing spend.
For the full year 2015 marketing expenses grew 68% a significant deceleration when compared to the 122% growth 2014.
Moving on, product development expenses totaled $11.2 million up 15% representing 13% of total revenue versus 15% last year. The increase in product development expenses was driven by higher employee related expenses as we continued to grow product and engineering staff. G&A expenses totaled $15.6 million, down 11% representing 18% of total revenue versus 27% last year. The decrease in G&A expenses primarily resulted from reduced stock based compensation and lower bad debt expense. Excluding these items, G&A expenses would have increased 13%. Headcount at the end of the quarter was 819 compared with 804 as of September 30, 2015 and 685 as of December 31, 2014. Looking ahead to 2016, we expect to continue to hire at a robust pace.
Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA was $14 million, up 51%. This resulted in adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter of 16%, up 170 basis points year-over-year. Fourth quarter net loss was $4.2 million compared with the net loss of $5.4 million last year. Etsy’s net loss in the fourth quarter of 2015 was impacted by a foreign exchange loss and by our income tax provisions. We recorded $6 million of foreign exchange losses in the fourth quarter of 2015 largely made up of a non-cash currency loss related to Etsy’s revised global corporate structure that we implemented on January 1, 2015.
We also recorded a $6.3 million tax provision in the fourth quarter compared to a tax provision of $3.1 million last year. Our tax provision in the fourth quarter was driven by non-cash charges primarily related to the aforementioned revised global corporate structure. Our tax provision also reflects the benefit from an R&D tax credit. During the quarter, we generated $10.2 million in cash from operations compared with $0.1 million last year. The increase in net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter was mainly due to the timing of payments to certain vendors which will happen in the first quarter of 2016. As of December 31, 2015, we had cash, marketable securities and short terms investments totaling $292.9 million.
To wrap it up, I’d like to discuss our three year growth expectations from a financial perspective. From the many meetings, Chad and I have had with our investors since we went public, it has become clear to us that an additional long-term guidance would be helpful to our investor community and would provide a clear picture of how we believe our strategic initiatives will translate into long-term financial result. We are as committed as ever to delivering long-term sustainable growth. And over the next three years we believe we can continue to achieve solid revenue growth combined with leverage in our cost structure to expand our adjusted EBITDA margins.
Specifically, we expect our three year revenue CAGR to be in the 20% to 25% range and our three year GMS CAGR to be in the 13% to 17% range. Please note though that our guidance assumes currency remains stable compared to average levels in December of 2015. In 2016, we expect revenue growth to be at the high end of our three year range and that GMS growth will be near the midpoint of our three year range. We anticipate that the key factors impacting revenue and GMS growth over the next three years include; number one, the further narrowing of the gap between mobile visits and mobile GMS; number two, stable percent international GMS; number three, continued revenue growth in our existing seller services, driven by both adoption and product enhancements; and finally, number four, modest contributions from new product launches and new seller services.
We expect to exit 2018 with a full year gross margin that is in the mid-60s percent range and that the 2016 gross margins will be in the 64% to 65% range. We anticipate the key factors impacting our gross margin forecast over the next three years, include; number one, continued revenue growth from our existing seller services driven by both adoption and product enhancements; number two, the impact from new seller services that we intend to launch. I would also note that at this point we don’t anticipate launching any new seller services in the next three years that would be dilutive to our gross margins. We also expect to gain leverage in our operating cost structure over the next three years, particularly within marketing spend.
In fact in 2016 we expect marketing expense as a percent of revenue to decline. However, overall marketing expenses as a percent on revenue were increased driven by expenses associated with our new headquarter here in Brooklyn and with Sarbanes-Oxley compliance.
Finally, from an adjusted EBITDA margin perspective, we estimate that our margin in 2016 will be comparable to 2015 in the 10% to 11% range and that it will expand to the high teens range exiting 2018. Over the next three years, this translates to overall adjusted EBITDA growth that will be more than two times faster than revenue.
And with that, I'll thank you for listening. I'd like to turn the call back over to the operator to open it up for Q&A.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Brian Nowak from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Brian Nowak
It sounds like that the holiday trends of pretty strong, GMS is accelerating, just a curious, why guide to a GMS slowdown, it seems that the trends are so strong I think the comps actually are getting a little bit easier throughout 2016. So just being curious for that. And then as we think about the sources of leverage in the model over the three year period, can you just talk about R&D versus sales and marketing and sources of leverage? Thanks.
Kristina Salen
Sure, Brian, thanks for your question. When we think about GMS growth, we think -- it's important to remember some of the factors that impacted GMS in 2015 and how we're thinking about those factors as we move in to 2016. Most importantly is to consider and the impacts of currency and our guidance assumes that currency remain stable compared to December 2015 average levels. While we can calculate that direct translation pretty clearly, it's really difficult to estimate its impact on international buyer behaviour. So, our GMS estimate does not incorporate -- our guidance is not incorporate significant rebound in international buyer behaviour.
On the question with regards of leverage, you were specifically asking about marketing leverage. I think, when we look at our three year basis, we expect operating leverage in each of our three key expense line items, product development, marketing and G&A and as I mentioned with regard to 2016 guidance specifically, we expect leverage and marketing expense, we actually expect it to go down on the year-over-year basis, and as a percent of revenue, while still growing however, just not as fast as revenue. But as I mentioned we expect operating expenses as -- in total as a percent of revenue to increase and that's really due as I mentioned to our new headquarter which we're moving into in 2016 and Sarbanes-Oxley compliance most of those expenses Brian will follow into the G&A category.
Operator
And our next question comes from the line of Blake Harper from Topeka Capital. Your line is now open.
Blake Harper
I wanted to ask you about the promoted listing with only 16% of your [indiscernible] was using them, but you did called them out as having driving higher strength. I wanted to see if you can talk more about that, is it a specific segmentation with different searches or better targeting and maybe what you see as the potential there as far as the number of your sellers that would use them and what the potential for that category to be
Kristina Salen
Thanks for your question. So, promoted listings 16.7% of our active sellers in 2015, used the service, that was down roughly 100 basis points versus last year. And as I mentioned that was expected and that was despite really robust growth impacted listing year. This is a remainder to our investors, about the changes that we implemented in promoted listings, at the end of 2014 moving into 2015, we moved from static pricing model, meaning everything was quite sustained in promoted listing to a bided model, meaning that prices reflected demand. The way that we've railed that promoted listings product is that it’s ROI positive to the seller, so it prevent the seller from bidding at extremely high prices to simply drive traffic that doesn't convert into growth sales for that seller, but it did increase pricing in certain categories as a keyword that ultimately priced out some sellers.
As I mentioned in my remarks, our goal is over the longer term to focus on creating advertising services that target a broader spectrum of our sellers, but as it stands today when you think about promoted listings and you think about the hundreds of millions of search page views that occurred on Etsy on an annual basis, our promoted listings product which put the top three relevant products in the search at the top of the page, drive a significant amount of volume.
So they're really for our sellers who can handle that level of volume, however we have a lot of sellers who are interested in advertising services, in fact it's our number one requested service and we think there's a lot we can do over time in the long term to add to our advertising services product. Thanks for your question Blake.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Darren Aftahi from Roth, your line is now open.
Darren Aftahi
First on your long term guidance I know you said you have an unannounced new seller services for '16. What is your GMS and revenue growth assumptions, I assume in terms of the number of seller services you're offering sort of exiting that period, and then number two Kristina if my math is correct, is that G&A swing you said is non-recurring is that roughly about $4 million?
Kristina Salen
To answer your first question Darren, with regard to our guidance as we said, our guidance assumes very modest impact from both new product and seller service. So it's very modest in the guidance that we've provided. With regard to your second question I'm not prepared to quantify it, but there'll be more detail about the G&A swing in our 10-K.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And I'm not showing any further questions I would now like to turn the call back to management for any further remarks.
Chad Dickerson
Just wanted to thank everyone for tuning into the call today and thanks for your question.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen thank you for participating in today's conference, this concludes the program you may now all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.
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First, you need to figure out which of three categories your vacation property is in, because each category has its own set of tax rules.
The category depends on your personal and rental usage during the year. For tax purposes, personal usage includes use by you, other family members (whether they pay fair market rent or not), or anyone else who pays less than market rent. For this purpose, family members include your spouse, siblings, half-siblings, ancestors (such as parents and grandparents), and lineal descendants (such as children and grandchildren).
Any day you spend working substantially full-time taking care of the property is not counted as a personal-use day, even if the other occupants goof off while you're working.
Finally, personal use also includes time spent at your place by another party under a reciprocal sharing arrangement ("I use your place in exchange for you using my place," for example), whether the other party pays market rent or not.
Category 1: Rented more than 2 weeks with substantial personal use as well
Your vacation home falls into Category 1 if you rent it for more than 14 days during the year and your personal use exceeds the greater of: (1) 14 days or (2) 10% of the rental days. For example, a vacation home that's rented for 30 days and used by your family for a month falls into Category 1.
Tax drill for Category 1 properties
Category 1 properties are treated as personal residences for federal income tax purposes. Our beloved Internal Revenue Code allows you to deduct interest on up to $1 million worth of mortgage debt on up to two personal residences ($1.1 million if home equity loans are involved). Property taxes are always deductible, no matter how many homes you own.
Those fortunate enough to own more than two homes can pick the two with the most mortgage interest each year -- usually the principal residence and the vacation home with the biggest loan.
How exactly do you handle the rental income and expenses for your Category 1 vacation home? Good question. Follow this six-step procedure.
Step 1: Report 100% of the rental income on Schedule E (Supplemental Income or Loss) of Form 1040.
Step 2: Deduct on Schedule E 100% of any direct rental expenses (such as rental agency fees and advertising).
Step 3: Allocate the mortgage interest and property taxes between rental and personal use. Count all days the property was not actually rented as personal-use days. For example, say your property is rented for three months during the year, used by your family for two months, and vacant for seven months. Allocate 25% (3/12) of the mortgage interest and taxes to rental usage and 75% (9/12, which includes periods of vacancy) to personal usage.
Step 4: Deduct on Schedule E the allocable mortgage interest and property taxes from Step 3 (25% in this example).
Step 5: If there's any net rental income left after Step 4, deduct on Schedule E allocable indirect expenses -- maintenance, utilities, association fees, insurance, security, depreciation, and so forth -- but only to the point where you zero out the rental income. In allocating indirect expenses, consider only the actual rental and personal-use days and ignore days of vacancy. So in our example, 60% (3/5) of the maintenance, utilities, and so forth is allocable to rental usage and 40% (2/5) is allocable to personal usage. The 40% is a non-deductible personal expense. Sorry. Even so, the bottom line on your Schedule E will probably be zero, because the rental income will likely be fully offset by deductible expenses.
Step 6: Write off the personal-use percentage of mortgage interest and property taxes (75% in this example) as itemized deductions on Schedule A of Form 1040. Note that high-income folks can see their mortgage interest and property tax write-offs reduced under a phase-out rule.
Bottom line: This six-step procedure usually allows you to fully deduct all the mortgage interest and property taxes (part on Schedule E and the rest on Schedule A) and enough other expenses to cancel out your rental income. That's a pretty good result! Finally, you're allowed to carry over any disallowed indirect expenses to future years when you can deduct them against rental profits on Schedule E (if you ever have any).
Tax-smart strategy for Category 1 properties
If your property fits solidly into Category 1 for the year and your expenses exceed the rental income (the usual situation), you will probably come out ahead tax-wise by renting it out for some additional days. That way, you'll receive more rental income (good for cash flow), and you can probably still offset all the rental income with allocable mortgage interest and property taxes, direct rental expenses, and indirect expenses. So you'll have that much more tax-sheltered rental income, which is always a good thing. But make sure to keep your property in Category 1 status by having enough personal-use days to exceed 10% of the rental days. If necessary, mixing in a few more personal-use days (maybe between now and the end of the year) should not be too much of a hardship.
Stay tuned for Part 2
You now know the tax angles for Category 1 vacation homes, but we still have two more categories to cover. Please tune back in for the rest of the story in next week's column.
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Trailing by nine runs with Washington ace Stephen Strasburg on the hill, hope was bleak for the Atlanta Braves.
But after 11 innings, 21 runs, two blown saves and one very costly error, Atlanta somehow came out on top, 11-10, in the opener of a four-game series against first-place Washington.
Brian McCann, Martin Prado, Chipper Jones and Michael Bourn all knocked in two runs for the Braves, who have won two in a row.
On his 24th birthday, Strasburg received a no-decision after another rough outing against the Braves. He gave up four runs on eight hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings. In six career starts against Atlanta, Strasburg is 3-3 with a 4.77 earned run average.
Michael Morse and Ryan Zimmerman knocked in three runs apiece while Steve Lombardozzi drove in a pair for the Nats, who have lost three of their last five.
The blown nine-run lead was the largest in Nationals/Expos history, while the nine-run comeback was the Braves' largest since overcoming a nine-run deficit on June 7, 1987 against the San Diego Padres.
Dan Uggla started the 11th inning with a ground ball to third base. Zimmerman came up with it, then spun and fired wide of first base, allowing Uggla to reach second. Catcher Sandy Leon then allowed a passed ball that put Uggla on third. With a drawn-in infield, Paul Janish blooped a single that just eluded the glove of shortstop Ian Desmond to give the Braves the lead for good.
"When you are down 9-0, you just have to kind of stay focused and grind out your at-bats," Uggla said. "We took advantage of a lot of opportunities tonight and, next thing you know, we're back in it."
Uggla also ignited the Braves' ninth-inning rally to complete their nine-run comeback. Uggla worked a leadoff walk, the Braves' eighth free pass of the night. Tyler Clippard then plunked Paul Janish to put two on with no outs. Two batters later, Michael Bourn slammed a triple high off the fence in right field to give Atlanta a 10-9 lead.
Craig Kimbrel, who had successfully closed out his previous 20 save opportunities, could not protect the Braves' lead. Danny Espinosa crushed a 1-0 fastball over the left field fence to tie the game and send it to extra innings. The home run was only the fifth Kimbrel has allowed in 135 2/3 career innings.
Washington established its large advantage with a pair of two-out rallies in the first and fourth innings to open up a six-run lead.
In the first inning, Zimmerman worked a two-out walk and Adam LaRoche doubled before Morse jumped on an 0-1 fastball and crushed it well over the center field fence.
Washington found some more two-out magic in the fourth when Lombardozzi legged out an infield single to keep the inning alive. After Bryce Harper walked, Zimmerman lined the eighth pitch of his at-bat out to left to give Washington a 6-0 lead.
Braves starter Tommy Hanson came out for the fifth inning, but was pulled after allowing back-to-back singles to begin the frame. Luis Avilan entered and induced a fly out before issuing back-to-back walks to Jesus Flores and Strasburg to force in a run. Lombardozzi dropped a base hit into right-center field to drive in two more runs and give the Nats a nine-run advantage.
"I feel bad," Nats manager Davey Johnson said. "The guys played hard. It was arguably the worst game I've ever managed in my life. We lost a nine-run lead it was my part at the end to handle the pitching."
Atlanta put four on the board and chased Strasburg in the sixth inning. Freddie Freeman led off with a single and McCann hit his 15th homer of the year to make it 9-2. After Uggla singled, Eric Hinske hammered a double high off the center field fence to end Strasburg's night. Two batters later, with Michael Gonzalez on the mound, Martin Prado ripped a two-run double off Zimmerman's glove to bring the Braves within five.
Atlanta closed the gap even further with a four-run eighth inning. With two on and two out, Sean Burnett walked Prado and Jason Heyward to force in a run before Jones ripped a two-run single to left. Freeman then stroked a base hit to right, scoring Heyward and making it 9-8 before Burnett escaped the frame.
Eric O'Flaherty (2-0) picked up the win after tossing a scoreless tenth and Tom Gorzelanny (2-2) took the loss after allowing the decisive unearned run in the 11th. Chad Durbin retired the Nationals in order in the 11th to record his first save of the season.
Hanson, who allowed a then-season-high six runs in his last start against the Mets on July 14, was let off the hook after surrendering eight runs in four-plus innings. The Nationals crushed him for eight hits and four walks.
Game Notes
Jones passed George Brett for most all-time RBI by a third baseman with 1,598...Uggla, who went 3-for-4 on the night, improved to 8-for-15 in his career against Strasburg and Heyward picked up a pair of hits and is now 5- for-9 against Strasburg...Zimmerman has nine home runs and 25 RBI in 22 games since June 24...Washington has scored at least five runs in seven of nine games against the Braves this season...When the Nationals have provided Strasburg with two-plus runs of offensive support, Washington is now 20-4...Freeman extended his hitting streak with a 3-for-5 performance...The Braves went 5-for-23 with runners in scoring position and stranded 13...The Nationals went 4-for-11 with RISP and left nine on base.
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Surely, everybody can't have a so-so night. At some point, in an NBA game, somebody has to develop that hot hand that leads one team or the other toward victory, right?
It wasn't until the start of the fourth quarter of Tuesday night's matchup between the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards that some difference-makers finally made a difference. Hawks reserves Mike Scott and Shelvin Mack proved up to the task, scoring 16 straight Atlanta points to spur a 106-102 win.
"We kind of got into a rhythm," Mack said. "I've been kind of struggling all season, off and on, but we were able to make some plays."
Scott and Mack sparked a 22-5 run that built a 14-point lead before the Wizards hit a spate of 3-pointers to make the final score close. Scott finished with 17 points in 22 minutes, and Mack had 13 in 19 for the Hawks, who have won six of eight.
"We have a lot of confidence in those two guys," Atlanta coach Mike Budenholzer said. "They believe in each other and believe in what they're doing on both ends of the court. At times they can both get going."
Jeff Teague added 28 points, and Paul Millsap had 17 points and 11 rebounds for Atlanta.
Until Scott and Mack got going, neither team could sustain much of a run because so many key players were having tough nights. Paul Pierce shot 6 for 14, Bradley Beal 4 for 14 and Kris Humphries 2 of 7 for the Wizards. DeMarre Carroll went 3 for 10, and Kyle Korver was 0 of 4 for the Hawks.
Beal also committed five turnovers, a sizeable chunk of the Wizards' season-high 20 giveaways.
"It was a bad game overall. I've got amnesia. I don't remember anything from the game, so we can move on if you guys want to," said Beal, cracking a smile as he spoke to reporters. "I'm so upset at myself. I'm never seen myself turn the ball over that many times. I think everybody wants to just try to force it there and get it there and try to make a play, and sometimes it just doesn't fall in our favor, and it's a domino effect."
John Wall had 21 points and 13 assists but also seven turnovers, and Marcin Gortat had 12 points and 11 rebounds for the Wizards. Washington played without power forward Nene, who missed his first game due to injury this season with plantar fasciitis in his right foot.
"That was as bad as we could play offensively, for whatever reason," Washington coach Randy Wittman said. "Trying to do too much. Over-dribbling, ball-sticking, predetermining — no matter what the defense was going to do, and we just get in trouble like that."
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FERGUSON IMPACT
A crowd protesting the grand jury decision in Ferguson, Missouri, had gathered on the west side of the Verizon Center by the time the game ended. At the final whistle, the Wizards public address announcer told fans that the exits on that side of the arena had been closed and fans would have to leave through other exits. In Washington's locker room, players discussed the best way to drive home from the arena to avoid streets that were shut down.
TIP INS
Hawks: Mack's 13 points were a season high. ... The Hawks improved to 2-4 on the road.
Wizards: With Nene out, Humphries got his first start of the season. ... F Otto Porter returned after missing one game with a sore left hamstring. ... Pierce passed Jerry West for 17th place on the NBA's career scoring list.
UP NEXT
Hawks: Host Toronto on Wednesday.
Wizards: At Cleveland on Wednesday.
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Follow Joseph White on Twitter: http://twitter.com/JGWhiteAP
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An 80-year-old Chicago man shot and killed an armed man who broke into his two-story house in a pre-dawn home invasion Wednesday on the city's West Side.
At about 5:20 a.m., the homeowner and his wife, also in her 80s, discovered the intruder entering their home through a back door. The homeowner, who had a gun, confronted and killed the burglar on the doorstep, police said. Cops said the intruder also fired his gun during the struggle.
"It's a good thing they had a gun, or they might be dead," said Curtis Thompson, who lives next door to the couple, the Chicago Sun-Times reported.
Neighbors described the elderly couple, who both walk with canes, as pillars of the community in Garfield Park, where home invasions have been all too frequent.
Their neighbor, Shaquite Johnson, told MyFoxChicago that the two are "heroes" for fighting off the attacker — and that the shooting means there is "one less criminal" walking the streets.
"They don't bother no one, so why would anyone do that to them?" she said.
Relatives of the couple told the Sun Times that the man is an Army veteran, his wife a former nurse. Police said neither the man nor the woman was injured in the attack.
The assailant, who was described by police as being in his 30s, was found slumped on the back doorstep of the couple's house, removed four hours after the shooting, the Sun Times reported.
No charges have been filed against the homeowner, but Chicago currently has a statute outlawing the possession of handguns. Its legality is currently being decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
A high-profile Chicago attorney has already stepped forward offering to represent the man pro bono if he faces charges for possessing a weapon.
"Self-defense isn't just a right, it's a duty," said attorney Joel Brodsky. "If this man is prosecuted for saving his own life it's not just a travesty, it's justice turned inside out."
Click here for more on this story from MyFoxChicago.
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Set 85 years after the time of the original "Star Trek," the new crew of the Enterprise, headed by Captain Jean-Luc Picard, continue to explore the universe on a peaceful mission of discovery.
"Star Trek: The Next Generation – The Fifth Season" features some of the most memorable episodes of the series, the season includes Paul Winfield's guest appearance as Dathon and Ashley Judd's debut performance in beloved episode, "Darmok." The set also includes the jaw-dropping opening scene portraying the destruction of the Enterprise in "Cause and Effect," and "The Inner Light," the critically acclaimed episode that garnered the series its first Hugo Award for Best Dramatic Presentation.
In addition to all-new commentary tracks on select episodes with some of the franchise's most notable names, deleted scenes and a gag reel, the high-definition collection includes the newly produced featurette, "Requiem: A Remembrance of Star Trek: The Next Generation." This two-part documentary explores the making of the series' fifth season and focuses on the effect the passing of creator Gene Roddenberry, which took place halfway through the season, had on the show as well as the production family. The tribute to the late creator includes key cast and crewmembers sharing their favorite memories of working with Roddenberry and bidding farewell to the Great Bird of the Galaxy.
The collection also includes the exclusive featurette, "In Conversation: The Music of Star Trek: The Next Generation." Jeff Bond, author of The Music of Star Trek, moderates the conversation between the show's composers Ron Jones, Dennis McCarthy and Jay Chattaway as the group discusses the challenges for writing each episode's original score, working with a live orchestra and the team's creative approach to scoring the series. The featurette also shares stories from behind some of the most beloved musical cues including the legendary Ressikan flute melody from "The Inner Light."
Star Trek: The Next Generation – Unification Blu-ray is a feature-length presentation of the fan-favorite, two-part epic adventure from the series' fifth season. Over 25 million viewers tuned into the original airing of the episode, making it one of the most-watched of all seven seasons of the series. In the episode, Leonard Nimoy reprises his iconic role as Spock as both he and Captain Jean-Luc Picard (Stewart) venture on a heroic mission in an attempt to unify the Vulcans and the Romulans.
Along with audio commentary and an exclusive deleted scene, the "Star Trek: The Next Generation – Unification" Blu-Ray includes the exclusive documentary, "From One Generation to the Next." This newly produced special featurette takes fans behind the scenes at the making of the classic two-part episode and the introduction of Spock to the 24th century saga of the hit series.
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Biogen IDEC Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB)
February 25, 2013 1:30 pm ET
Executives
Tony Kingsley - Executive Vice President of Global Commercial Operations
Paul J. Clancy - Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Finance
Claudine Prowse
Analysts
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, well, good afternoon, everybody, and thanks once again for joining us here at the Citi Global Healthcare Conference. It's a great pleasure to have Biogen Idec here with us for the fireside chat. To my left is Tony Kingsley, who is Head of Commercial Operations. To his left is Paul Clancy, who is the Chief Financial Officer; and David [indiscernible], who's the Head of Investor Relations. So thanks so much for coming. We appreciate it. So lots to talk about. We want to talk about both in the commercial operations side, your preparations for Tecfidera, how you think about your overall portfolio and kind of what to expect from Tecfidera to the extent that you can answer all of our million questions about are you going to get a black box or a pink box or a red box or what the label's going to look like. And we have a lot of questions on that and then lot of financial questions too. So maybe let's start first if you don't mind because that's something that's, I think, it is a still topical right now. Can you -- and just bear with us, but are you expecting approval by the PDUFA date or is there any chance for a delay?
Unknown Executive
I think, maybe, unfortunately, no, I know it's on anybody's mind. But there's really no update on kind of regulatory status or regulatory approval. So we're still planning for PDUFA in the United States for late March, for first half of this year in the EU, and we're doing all of our preparedness along the way. So I mean, there's really nothing to report today and no change as it relates to kind of the regulatory approval status.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So on the earnings call, you guys did provide some language about -- that I think was perceived to be very positive. First of all, you're so public about acknowledging some of the concerns that were raised relating to what was on the website relating to kidney and potential timing of approval and why there hasn't been a panel. And I don't know, to the extent that you can, help us understand maybe, first, the fact that there hasn't been a panel. How do we look at that?
Unknown Executive
Well, I think it's positive, right? So to date, there's been no panel. I mean, we are not planning for one. You just never know with the FDA. So but no concerns that we have as it stands from a regulatory approval status. But really nothing to update.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And in terms of when you think of the totality of the clinical data and Tecfidera between confirm define and the follow-on studies, the open-label extension, and as you think about -- based on that data, what kind of labeling one would need to have and what kind of typical monitoring one needs to have? What's your sense as to what the data informs you?
Unknown Executive
Hard to tell. I mean, we're kind of in the late stages of regulatory approval. So really would be hard to guess at this point in time. Hopefully, we'll see it in not too distant future.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And I don't know if you can comment but from an SG&A perspective, so the data -- maybe I'll just rehash the data. The data, they see some white blood cell decreases but there's really nothing in the infection signal that we can recall. Does that typically suggest that one should follow the white counts or is it typically more based on the clinical outcomes with respect to if there was an infection, there's a reason to follow, but if there's no infection then there's really no need to follow?
Unknown Executive
Yes, so I mean nothing to report today unfortunately. So we're just going to have to see.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, fair enough. The -- maybe I'll just switch topics to the AAN abstracts are out. The data does talk about the open-label extension, will confirm and define and I think they are lumped together. And there is a mention in there of about 6 cases of new cancer altogether. Is that -- I just wanted to see, is that -- do you recall, is that from the beginning of the study until now or does that just include the open-label extension?
Unknown Executive
I don't think there's anything new there. I mean, so -- I mean, nothing to report in terms of anything new on that one.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, so all that data essentially has already been presented.
Unknown Executive
Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So all those 6 cases have already been reported, there's nothing new.
Unknown Executive
I believe so.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, good to clear that up. Tony, let's talk about we did an MS panel earlier today. So you're going to have a lot of work ahead of you. You have 3 drugs to detail and 3 sales forces to run, and I constantly go back and ask you that every time. Help us understand how do you manage every sales force and ultimately what's the marketing message is going to be. Do you present to the clients, to the physician clients some kind of a unified message from Biogen.
Tony Kingsley
So let me take that from a couple of different angles. So the sales force model, we think each of the 3 products requires an equal amount of promotion for different reasons at this point in its life cycle. Obviously, Tecfidera as a launch product needs significant promotion. We think AVONEX is a great injectable product, such as [indiscernible]. And that segment of market is very share sensitive, needs to be promotional. We think TYSABRI can -- meaningful growth potential. So we will have in the vast majority of cases 3 reps going to offices. We think in the vast majority of cases, we can get that access. There are some places where that's constrained and we'll have to find a way to work around that. If you can get that access, more sale calls and more share voices, et cetera. From a positioning standpoint, look, it's a complex disease with lots of different patient schemes. We've said that many times. We believe that. We think that the 3 products broadly play to some different sets of patient needs. AVONEX is a great product for patients to start on, particularly patients with relatively mild disease. TYSABRI, we talk a lot about risk stratification, but what's important about TYSABRI is efficacy, right? It's really in sort of a class by itself for patients who have breakthrough disease that really needs efficacy and it looks like, again, we don't have the label, but you see in the data. The profile for Tecfidera is very positive, good efficacy and what looks like a reasonable, very reasonable safety profile. So there are some things that we'll have to do on the margin. Those products will compete for some of the same patients that we will obviously think very tactically about co-positioning. Each of our reps will be trained on the other products and able to speak about them knowledgeably. Each of our reps will be primarily motivated by incentive on a single product, right? That's sort of the key to this. But we'll remind you, we have about 30% of the patients today. That means we don't have about 70% of the patients, and the focus on all 3 of those products is outward looking and how do we capture more that patient share across that transaction.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
The AVONEX PEN, how has that changed the dynamics in AVONEX? Where have you seen share gains? Is it in the new segment, in the new patient segment? Did you also see you're getting a proportional number of the switchers?
Tony Kingsley
Yes. So mostly through an increase in new starts. AVONEX is typically less than the other products, a product that is switched to historically. Look, our theory on the injectables is pretty straightforward. As a set of competitors, we've spent 10 years arguing with each other over what are relatively moderate differences in efficacy. The perceptions of efficacy across the platform therapies are getting further compressed as new products come in. So convenience becomes a big differentiator. The AVONEX is a once a week, with the PEN, which was in a smaller needle, put in on par with the other products, becomes a much more attractive option, we think. So it's that and sort of share our voice and execution that have driven that. We do see some places where there are switch-to business from people who have tolerability issues or injection-site reactions and other things that's done in a more frequently dosed products that makes patent, but the bigger -- the emphasis on that is to capture disproportionate share of this drug, and we think we've been successful to date in doing that.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Hence becoming at the expense of, what, is it equally among all the other ones or is it just proportionally more than Rebif to a certain degree as opposed to Avonex?
Tony Kingsley
It fluctuates. I think it's come from all of the products. I think it fluctuates a little bit but -- whether it's the high dose or Copaxone.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, on the panel earlier today and we heard from the docs that they view PEG-Avonex as really being a replacement for AVONEX as opposed to a legitimate competitor with Copaxone and maybe Rebif. So from certain degree, I think they're still -- whether appropriately so or not, there still -- and you still hear a lot or quite often that physicians do view AVONEX as being the least potent of the ABCRs, right? So I guess question number one to you, do you agree with that based on the data? And then two, what's the strategy behind PEG-Avonex? Is it just going to be a replacement strategy or can you really capture share?
Tony Kingsley
Yes, good question. So PEGylated interferon is not actually -- actually, it's a different molecule. So I understand that perspective coming from the panel, but I think that -- thinks about it the wrong way. With the injectable category, we think it's going to exist for an extended period of time. It'll shrink, right? As I said, convenience becomes the bigger differentiator in that category. So that is what the strategy for PEGylated interferon is. The way to think about it is not -- as simply a replacement for AVONEX. But if you have an injectable category and you have a product that you could dose with the same efficacy as the other products and you can dose it once every 2 weeks or once every 4 weeks, why would you use any other injectable? So we think it is within the injectable category. It's a potential winner in the injectable category relative to the other players. It is true that AVONEX does have the perception of being, as you said, the least potent. That varies by geography. It varies a little bit, obviously, by a physician segment, but that's generally true. The PEGylated interferon data will stand on its own, right? And if you look at what the Phase III read-up was, it's squarely in the category of the other injectables. So it's a new molecule.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Would you consider doing a head to head maybe against Copaxone or some of the other drugs? An inferiority study with Q2 weeks and Q4 weeks?
Tony Kingsley
Could consider it. I mean, the question is what is it going to take to capture share in that segment. And with the first thing being a, what, disproportionate share of the new starts, it should be well positioned to do that. And then secondly, does it give you an increased opportunity to get some of the switchers? I'm not sure that would be necessary to have to do that.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
No, the question is, do you want a target from the start or you're just going to leave that to Tecfidera? And then a question of switching too and then you can argue that you're -- that's the most convenient.
Tony Kingsley
Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So why not switch to that upon -- it's sort of a self-defeating question whether you really need to do that study or not. And if you have the data, you can check off that question of potency once and for all.
Tony Kingsley
Yes. No, that's a fair point, but I think, again, the primary objective in interferon franchise if you take what PEGylated interferon would do over time is to compete for the new starts, because that's where most of the injectables are going to go. I think the secondary benefit in there is more opportunity with PEGylated is to get switches. There are lots of alternatives for switches, right? There's going to be Tecfidera, there will be other products in place as well. So that's a good strategy. If you can take a disproportionate share of new starts if you can gain share in the category as it shrinks, it's economically very attractive, we think.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
As you think of this market, this market's got 3 segments, right, the new starts, which were about 3% of the business roughly annually, 2% to 3% market growth quite organic in MS.
Tony Kingsley
It's a little more than that. I mean, what we've seen over the last number of years is kind of a little bit different outside the United States and inside the United States. Inside the -- you can almost kind of equate that outside of United States is about 5 years behind in terms of penetration pattern. So outside the United States we see in the mid to high-single digit growth over the last few years. Inside the United States, we're seeing a low-single digit growth. It would appear a couple of years ago with Gilenya coming into United States, and it did create a little bit of tailwind for the category, and then it all totally made sense, right, is that innovation kind of can create growth. And we think that that's actually is quite possible to happen again with Tecfidera.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So the second bucket is the switchers. And what percentage of patients on ABCR switch among drugs every year?
Tony Kingsley
So it's a minority of that group. If you think about what the reasons for switching are, the most common reason is efficacy. People have a breakthrough, and then the secondary reason is tolerability issues. So there are patients who stay on injectable therapy. There are people who have been on AVONEX for 15 years or well, control people may have stay on Copaxone for 10 years. It really often has to be triggered by a breakthrough. The nature of this disease, though oversimplified, is relapse. It might come every 18 or 24 months, right? So that's a reasonably slow cycle that generates the primary reason for switching. We do see what new products come in to the extent physicians and patients are aware you get a stimulation and that switch will -- we would expect to see some of that with the entry of Tecfidera as we have with other products as well.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
We hear from docs a lot, I mean, I think I've been hearing that consistently for years that the switching business is about -- they switch about between 10% and 20% of patients annually among ABCRs. Does that jive at all with what you're seeing or...
Tony Kingsley
Yes, I think that's fair.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And then what about -- the third segment is the returning quitters. Novartis has talked about -- but we got be honest. In all the doc checks we've done -- that's the one element -- I think, there's a huge disconnect between Novartis' comment and what we're really hearing from physicians as to how many patients are really coming back that are totally untreated? What are your thoughts because I'm trying to -- while I'm going with this, I'm trying to -- let's kind of put this together and see what Tecfidera is looking at.
Tony Kingsley
Yes. So we think there is some opportunity there. There's, we think, north of 100,000 patients across the U.S. and Europe that would fall into that category of the sideline. There's long-term noncompliant quitters. The fact that most of those patients aren't looking for therapy, they're not in places where they're looking for therapy, they're not accessing a information about therapy and there's a reasonably complex reason that people have gone, quit. This is relapsing-remitting disease. So it's possible that patients can do well or think they're doing well for an extended period of time. So we think there was some of that. We tried to triangulate on the numbers that Novartis talked about. I think what they talked about was something like half of their business in the first -- in 12 months or 9 months or something. Coming from what sounds like a combination of new start and returning quitters. So it wasn't half just returning quitters. I don't know what the mix within those is, but again, lots of those patients aren't actually looking for therapy. So I think it's a pretty sticky group.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Yes, and then if you look at Aubagio, the launch so far -- the trajectory of the launch in the TRX has been pretty uniform at least when we looked last, maybe 1 week or 2 ago, almost very similar to what we saw in Gilenya. The Gilenya initially was pretty slow and then kind of picked up steam. But what's surprising about Aubagio so far has been identical. Has that surprised you?
Tony Kingsley
I think it's within our expectation where they would go. It does speak to there's demand for oral therapy and the convenience associated with that. There's also a demand for other mechanisms of action, right? And I think you're seeing some of that. So it's a product that I think has interferon-like efficacy with a little bit of convenience advantage. Our research suggests that there's a niche for that, and that's what we're seeing it capture. The real question becomes where does it go after what we think is a better alternative that's available on the market.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. So if we kind of -- if we put it together, you're looking at maybe 3% in the U.S. new patients, about 10,000 a year. If we do kind of 12% switchers on 360,000, that's another 50,000. So we're talking about kind of 50,000 or 60,000 patients is the way we should think about is the initial opportunity kind of annually?
Tony Kingsley
Yes, so the 50,000 is probably a little high because I think the 360,000 is little high. If you actually look at patients that were on treatment...
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
What number are you using?
Tony Kingsley
South of 300,000, I think, would be our number. But the total that -- that kind of rough proportion of the switchable in a stable market is -- it's pretty similar to what we think. And that question becomes does that switch rate accelerate a little bit with new -- so I think you're somewhere in the ballpark.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And what kind of numbers do you have in Europe for patients on therapy?
Tony Kingsley
A little bit bigger than the U.S., similar set, a little bit bigger in that I think in the U.S. What we've said what...
Unknown Executive
So there's a little bit south of -- we think there's a little bit south of 700,000 patients on therapies across the world. It's kind of moved to about 40% U.S. and the balance outside the United States.
Tony Kingsley
Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And most of that balance is Europe for you guys.
Tony Kingsley
Yes. I mean, in other parts of the world, it's become accretive business for us, but it's largely a North Atlantic disease. And it's over the years, it's followed the immigration pattern of Northern Europeans really. So you have a presence in Australia, you have presence at other places in the world, but certainly -- and as a result, the United States as well.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. Can we -- I want to just kind of move next to -- how do we think about kind of gross-to-net discounts in U.S. versus o U.S. for MS, because It's competitive market? Obviously, when we look at some of the legacy products like TYSABRI and AVONEX we can kind of back into that better. Of course, if they're on the market for a while, they've experienced that price increase issue, which lowers the price. But for drugs, what do you think is kind of a reasonable gross-to-net adjustment in the U.S.?
Unknown Executive
I mean, inside the United States for the therapies that have been around for a while, we were kind of in this 20s to high 20s percentage gross to net. Outside the United States, there isn't meaningful gross to net, right? I mean, we basically don't --and there is a little bit in terms of rebates or VATs and stuff like that. But it's pretty closely, outside the United States, mirrors the list prices.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Right. You have discounts over the year, over time that we should think about?
Unknown Executive
Yes, not meaningful.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Germany is probably on the high end, right? They're mandating about a 16% discount right now.
Unknown Executive
That's coming out of the act that they had in 2010. Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay, by the way, if there's any questions in the audience, raise your hand at any time. Let me maybe just think about -- we've seen some issues recently with Gilenya and some of the copay assistance cards. We had to kind of pick up a little bit, managed care getting pretty conservative about that. How do you guys think about that, and how meaningful is it in MS?
Tony Kingsley
So copay assistance is important, right? There are high price -- these are high-priced therapies. All of the companies offer -- there's different flavors -- what we think pretty comparable kinds of the copay assistance to patients. We have seen a couple of isolated cases where payers, private payors, have like -- they outlawed -- moved away copay assistance. They -- in the cases where they've done that, at least that I'm familiar with, they've gotten a pretty big backlash from patients and employers. So stay tuned on that. But it's pretty important because the coinsurance or copays for the products can be meaningful for patients. These companies all offer programs. I believe we have done that.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And what's the mix? What's the mix of the private market in MS?
Tony Kingsley
So we -- it's 80% -- north of 80%, in the 80s would be typical for our products that are private payor versus government. This is the various mix of government plans.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. And Paul, just to ask you, the Italian distributor issue, when -- number one is -- was -- resolution of that, was that included in the guidance? And then number two, what needs to happen before that gets resolved? And then how do you book those revenues? Or those deferrals?
Paul J. Clancy
Yes, yes. I mean, not actually an easy question. I mean, parts of it are. Resolution was included in the guidance not with respect to any kind of pickup in the prior deferred revenue but was resolution from this year's not having deferred revenue is included in the guidance. I mean, that just was a full year perspective. It could be a downside to our guidance. We'll have to see. We hope to have that resolved sometime in the first half of this year is what we hope. I mean, I haven't looked at the news, but even -- what's going on with respect to the elections early today may put a factor into that. I mean, it may not. But we're making a little bit of progress, and we hope to kind of have resolution. In terms of the chewing up of the deferred revenue, if it's resolved favorably really is going to get into some kind of accounting logic as well in terms of kind of the resolution. So more to follow on that. It's hard to predict.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. And then I wanted to circle back actually and just talk about one thing that I neglected to ask before. Just the -- when you look at the -- I think it was the DEFINE, New England Journal of Medicine publication, that there was a mention -- talk about renal side effects. And there's a -- one sentence in there which you don't see in CONFIRM, and you guys to publish a lot of the renal side effects and -- but there's one specific sentence that says that there were no new cases of renal failure, which they defined as a serious adverse event. And that's sort of that defined literally. I think I'm almost quoting the report. And so I'm not sure if that said that there was no new cases of renal failure on TECFIDERA or there was no cases of renal failure, which ultimately were defined as serious adverse events. I don't know if you can maybe just talk about the safety of the drug from a renal perspective, what you see in terms of proteinuria, creatinine elevation. And did you see any cases of renal failure?
Paul J. Clancy
Got you. I'm not sure. I mean, nothing...
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
But nothing new to report?
Paul J. Clancy
Nothing new to report on that front.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. I think what you guys have said, that there was -- the creatinine elevations were identical to placebo in some [indiscernible].
Paul J. Clancy
As was proteinuria.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
As was proteinuria, okay. And did you -- I think you guys have commented there were no cases of renal failure in that study?
Claudine Prowse
[indiscernible]
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
There was no serious renal event. I -- okay. Because I've talked to you guys in the past, and there's -- I believe you've commented there was no cases of renal failure. Okay. Any other questions on MS? I was going to move maybe quickly to hemophilia. Anytime you guys want to raise your hand go, for it. Just go ahead. Question was?
Unknown Analyst
[Indiscernible] to the agency?
Paul J. Clancy
You -- with respect to TECFIDERA?
Unknown Analyst
Correct, sorry.
Paul J. Clancy
Yes. No -- nothing -- no updates on the regulatory status today. I know it -- I appreciate that it's certainly on everybody's mind but no updates today as it relates regulatory status. And that's got nothing to do with any concerns or feel that we're still on track. Just no updates.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
How -- I'm going to ask about hemophilia, hemophilia B Factor IX and maybe -- the profile of the product suggests that it's going to lend itself to once a week and about half can be doses of every 2 weeks. So the data is phenomenally interesting. The -- one of the -- and that's a game changer in that area. The one thing that I wanted to kind of key in on is, how do you think of the competition. So when you look at CSN and you look at Novo, their data also suggest that it can lend itself to be used as infrequently. But I think to certain degree, some of those products can have a slightly longer half-life. So my question has to do -- do you see a chance where the other products can ultimately be dosed in the same frequency but ultimately lead to a higher trough? And does that give them a competitive advantage? And if so, what can you do against that?
Tony Kingsley
Yes, that's a good question. That is a possibility, that it can go in that direction. Look, the 2 questions are will long-acting factors -- what portion of the market will long-acting factors capture. And I think you would argue, in factor IX in particular, they ought to capture a big chunk of the market, and that will actually encourage more prophylactics because I think the treatment intervals we talked about are that long. The second thing we've got is where do we stack up within the long-acting class. That's a function of lead time. We -- getting to market first matters. This is a sticky, pretty conservative market that doesn't switch very often. So we think there's some benefit on that front. And then the second thing will be look, they don't -- we have to wait for all that data to play out, right? But given that hypothetical is the mechanism of action, we like our mechanism of action, and we think there may be some advantages on that front. But we recognized competition is coming, right? We think the class is improved for long acting. Also true in factor VIII, and we want to get there first and convert as much of that market as we can hang on to it.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And with factor VIII, again you're showing an improvement over the current standards. The one sort of criticism that we hear is that the message of hey, doc, or hey, patient, so then you can take the same number of injections annually just micro prophylaxis as opposed to on demand. But to a certain degree, the physician who was maybe a little bit more skeptical says that's nothing new. We've been hearing that message for a while. And unfortunately, to my patients, it just doesn't resonate enough. What can you do? Do you have any sense what percentage of the market is really kind of stuck and in their knowledge in prophylaxis? And then what can you do to really address that market dynamic?
Tony Kingsley
Yes. So on the more moderate to severe, which would be the prophylaxis segment, there's -- probably 65% of that market is episodic today, meaning it's not on prophylaxis. So in -- there is -- with longer-acting factor -- and the big reason people won't move to prophylaxis is the frequent injections right? So the longer-acting factors make it more likely that people will move to prophylaxis. And the one ARM of our study was intriguing, kind of saying that you could treat yourself on demand with 50-some -- 50 infusions or you could treat yourself prophylactically and you get a tenfold reduction, at least. That's [indiscernible]. I think that is news to the market. I think 1.5 halfway is news to the market. So there's an opportunity in the existing prophy patients who have the opportunity to extend the intervals. This is new. The competition is saying it's not new. They're fundamentally wrong. It is new. We have a longer half-life. Longer half-life is the #1 unmet need in the market. And the question becomes: will that translate itself into a label and a set of operating instructions in a commercial approach that will in share? I would argue that you could believe that will happen. The second question is can you grow the prophylaxis market? Well, I think there's compelling and interesting data there. There are some more of the barriers to that in some ways because you have to convince people to go on prophylaxis. But again, the extended half-life is a real advantage there. So I think it is news. I think the competition is pretending it's not news and will try to confuse people by saying it's not news. We believe it's news.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Yes. The prophylaxis segment is going to be sort of the older patients who are less active, who kind of used to be on prophylaxis, kind of given up a little bit. The -- when would it -- this market is -- I don't know if it's necessarily that different from other markets, but there's going to be docs who are early adopters and there's going to be docs who have an awful lot of patients who -- or potentially have seen in fact in HIV infections or sort of in that older population who are going to be more resistant to new drugs, and that there's also the opportunity to really move to prophylaxis. Do you kind of -- there's 2 headwinds there, right? One was about the historical infection issues and then, two, they're older. What can you do? I mean, we will grow. We will -- following Hydrotech [ph], we're very comfortable with new products. But nevertheless, you run into these docs all the time, who are very conservative. What can you do to change sentiment?
Tony Kingsley
Look, it's -- data and education are the most important things. I mean, it's not that different. This is a very concentrated market in terms of the number of treatment centers. And therefore, the number of docs and actually nurses can be influential in that area also. So look, you have to have a field force and you have to have a medical education. You have into think the size to that. There's not a lot of logic to make it 3x as big because there just aren't that many targets. At the end of the day, it's data that moves people, and it's with that education and promotional activity. That's what we think is the key to success.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And with the initial label, any -- and I don't know if you can give us a little bit of a sense what percentage of the factor IX and factor VIII market can you address with the initial label?
Tony Kingsley
I don't have the label yet, so it's hard to speculate on answering a question that specifically.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Well, let me rephrase.
Tony Kingsley
Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Based on the current data that you generated that you submitted to FDA.
Tony Kingsley
Yes, we think there's a meaningful portion of the, let's take factor VIII, which is a big one. We think there's a meaningful portion of that market which is there's call it 35% of the patients with the majority of its units are already in prophylaxis. There's a subset of those -- there's a very clear value proposition to switch people to a product with a longer half-life. That's a material benefit. There are all sorts of sub-segments and resistances within that, but there's one -- and then there's this 65% of the market, again a minority of the volume, a smaller amount of the volume that we think is -- has the potential or some meaningful portion of that to be moved to prophylaxis where they have none of that.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So in other words, the segment that you're probably not going to have in the label is the new kid?
Tony Kingsley
That's right.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
To move up.
Tony Kingsley
Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
But you can potentially have peds on? Or that's not clear?
Tony Kingsley
No, I'd probably not.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Probably not.
Tony Kingsley
Right.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So it's really going to be an adult market initially?
Paul J. Clancy
Yes, yes. But we base those things, as everyone knows. So that makes the difference in terms of use. As well as, moving on-demand to prophylaxis, that's a potential. And then clearly, right, I mean, initially, it's focused on the United States, as you know, right? The European authorities have asked for the kids' trial in order to get approval. That will take a couple of years. There are other parts of the world that we can start to begin to prosecute and should try to roll out. But I think a broad thesis around that piece is going to be more than likely a slower ramp because of some fundamentals in the marketplace. We've ascribed to that as well.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. Any -- I was going to ask about as I think of kind of Biogen, you -- as you know, there's probably goes distribution of MS. You've been mostly U.S. and sort of European and even the key European markets kind of centric company. Is there an opportunity for you guys to expand globally maybe even with direct agreements in the ground or a Biogen distributor or Biogen presence in Latin America and Asia?
Paul J. Clancy
Yes, we have direct operations in Latin America, in certain countries, in Argentina and Brazil. We have direct operations for a long period of time in Australia. We have direct operations in Japan, which we see as a very interesting market even -- despite macro trends, we see that as a very interesting market.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
That's a new territory for you?
Paul J. Clancy
No, no.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
No? I think...
Paul J. Clancy
No ,we've been there probably 7 or 8 years. So...
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
TYSABRI was approved...
Paul J. Clancy
We've been there really just with AVONEX.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Yes, okay. Yes.
Paul J. Clancy
Yes. I think that is largely our footprint given the products that we have and the therapies that we have. So when people ask us what's our China strategy, it's very -- it's fundamentally a different answer than kind of large pharmaceutical companies. Certainly, we'd like to be there someday, but I think products and therapies are going to have to pull us there as opposed to push.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And what's the strategy for TECFIDERA in Japan?
Paul J. Clancy
We'll seek approval over the next couple of years.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. And the bioequivalence study has been conducted or not yet?
Paul J. Clancy
It's under way.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Yes, okay. And just maybe just remind us. You mentioned TYSABRI was not approved -- I thought it was approved a few years ago. I'm obviously wrong. What happened with TYSABRI in Japan? It was never introduced.
Paul J. Clancy
I don't have an answer for you, yes. It was not registered, yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
But do you plans to register or...
Paul J. Clancy
Yes, yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Yes, there is.
Paul J. Clancy
Yes.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay.
Paul J. Clancy
Absolutely.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
But that -- is that on the critical path ahead of TECFIDERA? Or is that something that you follow with TECFIDERA?
Tony Kingsley
Yes. Yes. It would be so -- ahead of.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. Any questions from the audience? Paul, I was going to ask you about this year -- we're going to kind of move over to financial questions. This year, there's is going to be -- a lot of the investments -- we're still seeing a lot of R&D investments and so we're still seeing obviously SG&A investments in the launch. Help us understand, as you kind of think 2 to 3 years out, I mean, especially now with what's going on with taking over some of the -- a lot of responsibilities, you're potentially going to have a lot more leverage. How do you guys think about there's going to be some natural synergies on SG&A. Help us understand, what more investments do you need to make this year? And kind of what -- where do they go next year, not financially-wise but just kind of strategic? And then how do you think of R&D? Are you guys managing R&D as a percentage of revenues? Or are you just managing it based on whatever the pipeline going to...
Paul J. Clancy
Yes, we -- let me kind of give you the broad view of kind of the time period we're coming through, which really is kind of the guidelines for this question. We're coming through a period of 5 or 6 or 7 arguably late-stage programs. If we had this conversation 3 or 4 years ago, we would have never thought at the back end of 2012 we'd be kind of prosecuting all of those, that at some point in time, those -- some type of probability of success would have taken off. But we've been very, very lucky and very fortunate that we've moved the majority of those programs through, and the majority of those programs -- I think the exception would be dexpramipexole -- the majority of them resulted in favorable Phase III results. That kept our R&D at a pretty high burn just because of the nature of late stage -- the cost of late-stage programs. It then spun into in 2012, and what we're doing in 2013 is investments in SG&A for prelaunch approval. Now again, if you had asked the question 3 or 4 years ago about BG-12, we probably would have thought we would have be able to leverage our MS infrastructure. But because of strategic reasons, we -- in essence, we decided to go with a dedicated focus, which creates dedicated sales and marketing efforts and sales and marketing spending across each of the products. It's just a very unique time for the company within -- and very fortunate time for the company on the MS front that we can kind of push forward all of these. I think both of those start to wind down as we get to call it into 2014. Late-stage programs, as the Phase III is finished, the spending doesn't go away, but the upward trajectory and the upward pressure on spending starts to decline. And I think our prelaunch spending, we did a lot of it in 2012 in the United States. We have more to come in 2013 outside the United States in kind of a country by country basis for TECFIDERA. And then we have some prelaunch spending planned for later in this year around hemophilia, around the factor IX and then factor VIII programs. The timing on that is in our guidance. For this year, I think it's going to be a little bit of a function of whether or not we get priority review or not. I think PEGylated interferon, I think we end up leveraging off of that, off of the MS infrastructure that we have. So look -- and then to kind of complete the question is R&D spending likely becomes much more of a function of rebuilding what we -- more of a strategic imperative that we have around rebuilding the early-stage pipeline. And that's a function of the success coming out of discovery efforts as well as the success from a business development and collaboration standpoint. With all that said, we hope to have decent leverage on both R&D and SG&A. And hopefully, a lot of that's driven off of the denominator as much as the numerator.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
So 2014, as you said, you kind of wind down. On an absolute basis, we should think of '15 as being potentially down over '14? Or is it because -- let's take a bit more from a percentage of revenue?
Paul J. Clancy
I think percentage of revenues is probably the way to think about it. But not the upward pressure that we saw in R&D spending over the last, call it 2, 3, 4 years.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. And Tony, I don't know if you can comment, but -- and whether they -- just remind me if you have, but have you guys hired the full sales force already for TECFIDERA in the U.S.?
Tony Kingsley
Yes, in the U.S. in place.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
And how many reps have you hired? Have you said?
Tony Kingsley
We haven't said how many we have.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. If you want to, you can say now. And what about in Europe? Where are you in the process there?
Tony Kingsley
So since the main launch will be Germany in 2013, we're in the process of putting that field force in place now.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
What about Italy? So you're not thinking that Italy and France are going to come on this year at all? or...
Tony Kingsley
Maybe. But it's -- the real question in Europe is not just approval but it's the reimbursement timelines, and the reimbursement timelines are getting worse, not better. So I would say unlikely to have a big impact in '13. But we'll work hard to get them reimbursed in the market as fast as possible.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Okay. Well, great. I think we're out of time. So Tony, Paul and Claudine, thanks so much for coming.
Paul J. Clancy
Yes, we appreciate it.
Tony Kingsley
Thank you.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Thank you.
Tony Kingsley
Thanks all.
Yaron Werber - Citigroup Inc, Research Division
Thank you.
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Note to the Antitrust Division of the DOJ: 'Hold separate' Bowne's XBRL filings business in proposed merger with RR Donnelley.
Tuesday's announcement proposing to create a $10+ billion printing company [with the RR Donnelley (NASDAQ:RRD)- Bowne (BNE) acquisition] may well raise DOJ issues regarding market share and its influence on printing prices. Donnelley and Bowne are the two largest U.S. financial printers followed closely by Merrill Corp. (private). Not insignificantly, the proposed merger would consolidate under one roof a super-majority of XBRL filings business. XBRL is the new SEC-mandated reporting standard for companies with U.S. investors. It is not clear whether the parties plan to shed in-house XBRL filing services, thereby de-linking the XBRL issue from regular non-exclusive printing contracts.
SEC Form 10-Ks are now being filed with the SEC, and companies with non-calendar years are also reporting their Form 10-Qs. Here is a summary of the XBRL filings made in 2010 through Feb. 24th.
75 - Donnelley/EDGAR Online (NASDAQ:EDGR)
50 - Bowne
28 - Thomson Reuters (NYSE:TRI) (EDGARfilings)
25 - Fujitsu (OTCPK:FJTSY)
23 - Rivet Software
4 - Clarity Systems
3 - Other
208
(Note: The list is based on which software solution was used to file, not the actual printer or filer. For instance, Merrill Corp. and Vintage Filings are not listed here since they use software solutions provided by outside companies. Source)
Due to the extreme dominance of Donnelley and Bowne in the U.S. financial printing industry, their in-house XBRL solutions may well allow them to further increase their financial printing market shares. Donnelley's is the "Xcelerate" solution from EDGAR Online, and Bowne uses its own and that of Rivet Software.
Is the 60.1% XBRL filings market share too high for one printer to have?
Considerations include:
1. Companies not using the Bowne/Donnelley company will have to outsource the XBRL filing task whereas Bowne/Donnelley customers will likely have those services in their regular printing contract. To the extent that Bowne/Donnelley can use XBRL as a wedge for higher market share and/or prices, I suppose it might be an issue for the DOJ to contemplate. If neither Bowne nor Donnelley had in-house XBRL services, the XBRL wedge would be non-existent. Bowne/Donnelley (or their clients independently) would have to negotiate XBRL filing services just like other printers or filing companies. It seems that smaller or regional printers are already competing in a highly competitive market.
2. Although presumably the U.S. SEC has no say on issues of competitive prices and markets, they probably are interested in having a healthy balance of XBRL service providers. The issue of transparency in financial statements has become a top priority of government agencies. The XBRL filing format is now under a phased-in SEC mandate and has been about a decade in the making.
3. In rough numbers, it appears that the 2011 annual market for U.S. XBRL SEC-filing services is in the $250-300 million range. This may be too small for the SEC or DOJ to care about due to the size of the proposed merger. However, new XBRL requirements will be added over time so that the market is large for a software-based, compliance-heavy SEC solution. It is a service that weighs heavily on corporate officers, and the one-stop shopping for both printing and XBRL services is an important competitive factor in deciding which printer to use.
One possible solution seems workable, since Donnelley already has a non-exclusive outsourcing agreement with EDGAR Online:
Mandate the sale or "hold separate" Bowne's XBRL solution from the Proposed Merger - The effect would be that Bowne/Donnelley would have to outsource the XBRL filing service for their printing customers---like other printers---or such client companies would outsource that service themselves. Such agreements would be non-exclusive---the way they are now with EDGAR Online. This alternative would tend to have competitive market prices formulated by the new owner of the Bowne XBRL solution, EDGAR Online, and others.
In fact, if you examine the companies' Plan of Merger released Tuesday, you will note that as part of the agreement the parties agree to "divest or hold separate" a total businesses no more than 5% of the companies' total 2009 revenue. Who knows, perhaps the sale or divestment of Bowne's XBRL division is contemplated. Revenue from XBRL filing services is only now starting since only about 450 companies must comply vs. a total of 10,300 companies in 2011. By not holding separate the Bowne XBRL filings service, the combined Bowne/Donnelley could have a major competitive advantage in pricing due to bundling such services with their regular printing services.
Given the high demand for XBRL services, I would guess that there would be active bidding for Bowne's division. Or maybe the talented leaders of that operation could form an independent XBRL filings company.
It is probably a fair assumption that over the last few years both Bowne and Donnelley wanted to have XBRL competencies since the other one offered such services. Now that their rivalry is being put aside in favor of collaboration, their need to have the XBRL service in-house has been dramatically lessened. Let the XBRL vendors compete vigorously rather than having one printing company set the market practice and prices (and the latter undisclosed and/or bundled).
Disclosure: Long EDGR
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Photo messaging service Snapchat held talks with Chinese Internet giant Alibaba Group about a potential investment, Bloomberg News reported. The pioneering disappearing messaging service received a reported potential valuation of $10 billion, although "The talks are ongoing and the terms of the funding may change," an anonymous source told Bloomberg News.
Snapchat is by far the leader in the disappearing photo messaging space, a category the application invented. The application's popularity spurned a host of other applications attempting to offer a similar service, such as Facebook's Poke and Instagram's Bolt. So far, none of the competitors have really caught on.
Snapchat is also valuable to potential investors for its audience of 13-25 year-olds, 70 percent of whom are female, according to Snapchat CEO Evan Spiegel. Snapchat users sent each other over 700 million messages daily as of last November, according to the company. According to mobile analytics company App Annie, the application was one of the top 25 most downloaded applications in the Apple App Store last year. So while outlets like The New York Times pointed out that Snapchat does not yet have a strong revenue stream, the infrastructure for one seems to be there.
Alibaba Group's interest shows that Snapchat's potential is too strong to ignore. As The New York Times reported, Alibaba has been stepping up its venture capitalism investments—including stakes in Sina Corporation’s social media program Weibo and the messaging app Tango—in anticipation of a high-profile initial public offering, which is expected in September. Some have speculated that Alibaba Group could be valued at over $200 billion, and a deal with Snapchat could cause that number to swell even more.
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A new poster for a Stephen Hawking biopic set for release later this year celebrates the love and scientific theories of one of the most well known cosmologists ever.
The "Theory of Everything" poster shows Stephen Hawking (Eddie Redmayne) and his first wife Jane Hawking (Felicity Jones) spinning around on a lawn in England. Hawking's equations appear in white text, floating in the image. The new poster also shows a tagline for the film:
"His mind changed our world. Her love changed his."
The movie follows Jane and Stephen's relationship. They first met when studying at Cambridge University in England, and the renowned physicist was diagnosed with the motor neuron disease ALS (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis) shortly after their relationship began.
The first trailer for 'The Theory of Everything' reveals what could be an emotional tale brought to the silver screen. In the 2.5-minute trailer, Jane is seen taking care of Stephen as he slowly loses mobility. He was only expected to live for two years after diagnosis, yet Jane stuck by his side, in the trailer.
"I love him, and he loves me," Jane (as played by Jones) says in the trailer. "We're going to fight this illness together."
Hawking graduated from Cambridge and went on to become one of the most famous physicists of all time, changing the way that scientists understand black holes, space and time.
At the age of 72, today, Hawking uses a speech-generation computer program to communicate, and he relies on a wheel chair for mobility. However, Hawking still conducts research and lectures about his theories.
Jane and Stephen did eventually divorce in 1995 after getting married in 1965. They have three children together.
"The Theory of Everything" is based on Jane's 2007 memoir, "Travelling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen." The new biopic is set for release on November 7, the same day as another space-themed movie, Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar."
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Ukraine's Acting President Oleksander Turchinov, Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk address journalists in Kiev on March 1, 2014. Andrew Kravchenko / Pool via Reuters
Ukraine’s interim leaders called on the world to help Sunday, saying the country was “on the brink of disaster.”
Acting Prime Minister PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the move by Russian forces to surround military bases in Crimea was "a declaration of war."
His comments were echoed by acting president Oleksandr Turchynov, who said Ukraine had closed its airspace to non-civilian aircraft.
“Ukrainian forces are acting in accordance with Ukrainian laws and Constitution and they will defend Ukrainian territory,” Turchynov told reporters at a news conference in Kiev.
“Any attempt to attack military bases is in fact a direct aggression against our country responsibility for which will be borne by Russian military officers and Russian Government,” he added.
Earlier Sunday, Ukraine's national security council secretary ordered the call-up of military reservists, saying the country's forces must be "combat ready."
Marc Smith and Sasha Mazikina contributed to this report.
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By now you’ve heard about the Nigerian citizen, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, who was overwhelmed by other passengers while attempting a terrorist attack on a Northwest Airlines flight about to land in Detroit.
Why did Abdulmutallab possess a visa allowing him to enter the U.S., despite appearing in at least one U.S. database which one would hope would result in automatic disqualification?
The sources told CNN that the suspect flew into Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam on a KLM flight from Lagos, Nigeria, and is not believed to be on any “no fly” list, although his name does appear in a U.S. database of people with suspect connections. He did not undergo secondary security screening in Amsterdam, an administration official said.
Pardon my crudeness, but screw the “no fly” list. Why, in the name of God, would we grant a visa to someone with “suspect connections,” especially one whose behavior has been so strange as to cause his own father to report him to the local U.S. embassy.
Another government official said Abdulmutallab’s father went to the embassy in Abuja with his concerns, but did not have any specific information that would put him on the “no-fly list” or on the list for additional security checks at the airport. Neither was the information sufficient to revoke his visa to visit the United States. His visa had been granted June 2008 and was valid through June 2010.
No “specific information.” “Insufficient information.”
I am reeling under the weight of that bit of bureaucratic ineptitude.
His foreboding was so great, the elder Abdulmutallab took the extraordinary step of visiting the U.S. embassy to report his son. Most parents wouldn’t take such an action in the absence of grave concerns; even then only after much soul-searching and with great anguish. What kind of simpleton would fail to recognize the significance of that act?
We don’t owe entry into the United States to any foreign national. Decisions as to who is or isn’t granted a visa should be based solely on the best interests and safety of the United States. I prefer that our officials err on the side of caution and if that occasionally results in someone wrongly being denied entry…yeah, whatever.
Cross posted at It’s Only Words.
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The “America’s Next Top Model” Cycle 16 premiere came with quite a few changes to the traditional ANTM line-up. Tyra started the show with a parody of the different types of girls who try-out for “America’s Next Top Model,” before announcing the first major change for Cycle 16: The constants would begin this cycle thinking they had been rejected during casting week.
The final 14 received envelopes without photographs, which Tyra announced would mean they weren’t headed to panel and instead must leave immediately to go home. This begs the question: What about the other ANTM contestants who did have photos, who thought they were still in the competition? The whole thing seemed rather cruel for the sake of variety in casting week and for the shocked reaction from the not-really-rejected girls. Naturally, viewers didn’t see the let-down moment for the other constants—the actually rejected ones, that is.
This also meant that the Cycle 16 premiere wouldn’t including the 20-30 minutes normally reserved for casting week, instead launching straight into the first challenges and the preliminary glimpse of the girls at the ANTM house. Alexandria, a 21 year old unemployed contestant from Huntington Beach, California, seems to be setting herself up as Cycle 16’s argumentative diva. I expect Britanni, the 19 year old from Beech Creek, Pennsylvania, to be the first girl to go toe-to-toe with Alexandria in upcoming episodes.
For each “America’s Next Top Model” cycle, I take a guess at which two constants I predict will fare the best on the show. The first guess is based solely on her promotional photo and biography over on the official ANTM website; the second is based on my impressions of the contestants during the premiere episode. This year, I am placing my bets on Monique, a 19 year old from Pell Lake, Wisconsin, based on her promo, and from the premiere there is southern belle Hannah, who is 20 and from Austin, Texas.
Both girls made it through the first panel of ANTM Cycle 16, though the Tyra seemed concerned Monique will be considered too sexy for high fashion work.
The first challenge for the contestants of “America’s Next Top Model” Cycle 16 came in the way of a difficult runway show—and their very first photo shoot, all in the same day. With a spread in Italian Vogue, the cover of Beauty in Vogue, the usual Cover Girl Cosmetics contract and representation by IMG Models on the line again this cycle, Tyra has certainly continued to up the bar on what she expects from the ANTM model-hopefuls. The Cycle 16 premiere featured Erin Wasson, a famous designer/model who contributed the jewelry for the runway show, and epic photographer Russell James, who has been seen on several previous ANTM cycles.
The girls wore garments from Alexander Wang, and were met with a 12” runway over water—and a plastic bubble, which they would be inside while strutting their stuff.
First, the girls’ photo shoot happened backstage, and Mr. Jay and Miss Jay explained that in today’s fashion industry, what goes on behind the show is just as important as the show itself. Tyra reiterated this point during the ANTM Cycle 16 premiere panel, so it is very likely it will be a continuing theme during this cycle. The girls had to balance appearing occupied and off-guard while actually delivering a beautiful photograph, something quite a few of them struggled with. Tyra and the judges seemed most impressed with Jaclyn, a baby-faced 20 year old from Belton, Texas, and Molly, a 22 year old blonde beauty with an amazing jaw line from Charleston, South Carolina. Unfortunately, Angelia—a 20 year old dark beauty originally from Germany—managed a veil of dark hair concealing her face, which irked Nigel and the other judges.
Amazingly, only 2 of the 14 contestants took a tumble during the runway show following the photo shoot, despite the treacherous, narrow runway over water—and that giant bubble full of confetti. Dominique, who is 23 from Houston, Texas, slipped and fell into the water but managed to conduct her recovery with a smile, and flare, which impressed guest judge Erin Wasson. Ondrei, a petite contestant from Muskegon, Michigan, who is 18, didn’t recover with quite as much elegance as Dominique. Britanni managed to conduct an almost flawless walk during the show, and she was praised by Erin Wasson and the Jays afterwards. Each of the girls got to keep a piece of jewelry from Wasson’s collection.
At the first panel of “America’s Next Top Model” Cycle 16, Molly won best photo for her strong performance at the impromptu shoot behind the scenes at the runway show. Both Nigel and Tyra seemed very impressed with her bone structure and her “wind machine” hair, though Britanni was likely a close second behind her considering she rocked the in-a-ball runway show and delivered her own strong photograph. In the end, Angelia and Dominique fell into the bottom two, despite Tyra’s comments during deliberation about having a makeover specifically in mind for Dominique. Ultimately, Dominique made the cut, due to her vivid personality and unique look, making Angelia the first of the 14 contestants to go home.
With 13 girls remaining, and the always-popular makeover episode coming up in the next few weeks, will you be watching? Tell us your favorites in the comments below!
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Photo: DPA
This Week's Highlights: Weimar cinema screens in Berlin, a Carnival parade processes through Cologne, and Washington DC's National Symphony Orchestra sets up in Frankfurt.
BERLIN
Film
Berlinale Retrospective 2013 – The Weimar Touch: The International Influence of Weimar Cinema after 1933
While you're rubbing elbows with starlets and screenwriters at the Berlinale this week, be sure to save some time to discover some cinematic gems from the past. Thirty-three films from the 1930s through the 1950s offer insight into how Weimar-era directors dealt with the rise of National Socialism in Germany. Many of them emigrated to the United States or elsewhere in Europe where they went on to create classics like Casablanca and Some Like it Hot, both of which screen this week as part of the retrospective.
Price: €8-12
Location: CinemaxX Potsdamer Platz (entrance on Voxstrasse) and the Zeughauskino, Unter den Linden 2
Times: Thursday, February 7 – Sunday, February 17
More Information: www.berlinale.de
Music/Concerts
E-Studio Grand Opening – Blixa Bargeld, Caspar Brotzmann, Michael Wertmuller
Three heroes from the German avant-garde music scene inaugurate the Acadamy of Arts' new Studio for Electro-Acoustic Music Friday night. See Blixa Bargeld, Caspar Brotzmann, and Michael Wertmuller play works by new music composers Hans-Joachim Hespos, Georg Katzer, Chris Newman, and others in the fancy new sound space.
Price: €12
Location: Akademie der Künste, Hanseatenweg 10,
Times: Friday, February 8, 8pm
Phone: 030 200 57 2000
More Information: www.adk.de
Galleries/Museums
A Black and White Perspective: Two Cities – Berlin, Toronto
You live here. You love it. You can't get enough of Berlin. See the capital from another person's perspective this week. Verena Bayer moody, romantic photos of her home city hang alongside shots of Toronto by her picture-taking pal Fabio Mascarin. The artistic duo presents a dramatic portrait of two very different metropolises.
Price: Free
Location: Axel Hotel Berlin, Lietzenburgerstrasse 13/15
Times: Through February 26
Phone: 030 2100 2893
More Information: www.berlin-toronto.de
COLOGNE
Events
Rose Monday Parade
The good people of Cologne know how to throw a party. Put on your fancy dress clothes and take your places Monday among the show horses and marching bands and process through the city streets like a local. The atmosphere along the 6.5 kilometer Rosenmontag parade route is infectious. And it's not just all the candy being thrown at the crowd. There's a natural mystic blowing through the air.
Price: Free
Location: Parade begins at Severinstor in Südstadt
Times: Monday, February 11, 10:30am
More Information: www.cologne.de
DUSSELDORF
Dance
Ballet Revolucion
They jump, they spin, they leap, they sway with the mystery and determination of a revolutionary. A dazzling dance troupe direct from Cuba, Ballet Revolucion fuses Latin and Caribbean rhythms with classical ballet and Beyonce-worthy hip hop to create a high-energy stage show that The Guardian says is “a bit like watching an MTV miscellany while doing cardio in the gym.” Get an endorphin high without going anywhere near a StairMaster this week in Dusseldorf.
Price: €44-79
Location: Capitol-Theater, Erkrather Strasse 30
Times: Friday, February 8 – Sunday, February 17
Ticket Hotline: 01805-570070
More Information: www.balletrevolucion.com
FRANKFURT
Galleries/Museums
Lutz Bacher Exhibition Opening
A giant chessboard fills the main exhibition space at Portikus, but where are the pawns? Instead of your traditional kings, queens, bishops, and rooks, the American artist Lutz Bacher's chess pieces take the form of dinosaurs, pop heroes, and icons of conceptual art – see the replica of Marcel Duchamp's bicycle wheel. After planning out your strategy, take a seat upstairs in the sparkling black sand and watch Bacher's 1996 video piece Blue Moon.
Price: Free
Location: Portikus, Alte Brücke 2
Times: Friday, February 8, 8pm (Opening): Tuesday – Sunday, 11am-6pm; Wednesday, 11am-8pm; through April 14 (Regular Hours)
Phone: 069 962 44 540
More Information: www.portikus.de
Music/Concerts
National Symphony Orchestra Washington
In the midst of a tour through Europe, The National Symphony Orchestra stops off in Frankfurt Saturday. With Musical Director Christoph Eschenbach and first violinist Arabella Steinbacher at the helm, the Washington DC based ensemble presents grand orchestral works by Beethoven, Mozart, and Bartok. Sit in the audience at the Old Opera and succumb to the waves of string section enchantment.
Price: €32 – 120
Location: Alte Oper Frankfurt, Opernplatz
Times: Saturday, February 9, 8pm
Ticket Hotline: 069 1340 400
More Information: www.alteoper.de
HAMBURG
Film/Music
Little Sun Blackout Night
Everyone needs light. Even after the sun goes down. But some people live in places where there isn't any electricity. Olafur Eliassons' “Little Sun,” is a solar powered light developed as an attractive and affordable option for off-grid light-loving folks. See sixteen short films about the pretty palm-sized lamp in Hamburg Thursday. The series of bite-sized cinematic bits is accompanied by musical sets by the Ten Cities DJ Team and Fatoumata Diawara. It's all part of the Lux Aeterna Music Festival, which presents a range of musical artists until March 4.
Price: €10
Location: Laeiszhalle Hamburg, Johannes-Brahms-Platz
Times: Friday, February 7, 9:30pm
Tickets: 040 357 666 66
More Information: www.elbphilharmonie.de
LEIPZIG
Music/Concerts
Mala in Cuba
Story continues below…
A superstar of the dubstep scene, Mala and his pals Coki, Loefah, and St Pokes pioneered the genre over a decade ago in South London clubs. For his latest project, the British producer traveled to Havana, where he loaded up his hard drive with piano, horn, and percussion samples from local musicians. Check out his mix of Cuban sounds and dubstep beats at Conne Island in Leipzig Saturday.
Price: €11
Location: Conne Island, Koburger Strasse 3
Times: Saturday, February 9, 10pm (doors); 1am (start)
Phone: 0341 301 3038
More Information: www.conne-island.de
MUNICH
Events
Mardi Gras at the Museum of Man and Nature
Put on your lion mask and head to the Museum of Man and Nature Tuesday. The natural history museum is hosting a zoologically themed party to celebrate the end of the Carnival season. Clowns and jugglers create a circus-like atmosphere that the little ones will lap up as they run around like little monkeys. Strap on some butterfly wings or paint your face like a tiger! Anything goes as long as your costume resembles a member of the animal kingdom. An extinct one you ask? Even better. Party like a Tyrannosaurus Rex.
Price: Free
Location: Museum Mensch und Natur, Schloss Nymphenbur
Times: Tuesday, February 12, 11am-5pm
Phone: 017 95 890
More Information: www.musmn.de
Music/Concerts
The Stars – A Tribute to the Rolling Stones
There are the Rolling Stones, and then there are the Rolling Stones cover bands. Have a couple of pints and you'll never know the difference. Not that The Stars do too shabby of a job. Fritz Wimmer yelps through “(I Can't Get No) Satisfaction” like a veritable Mister Jagger. Shake your hips at Muffatwerk Friday.
Price: €17
Location: Ampere, Muffatwerk, Zellstrasse 4
Times: Thursday, February 7, 9pm
Phone: 089 458 750 10
More Information: www.muffatwerk.de
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Sony says it expects operating profit to remain steady until the end of the fiscal year after recording profit for the first time in five years.
Ending March 31, the tech giant reported net profit of $458 million in the 2012 fiscal year in comparison to a loss of $5.7 billion previously. Sony originally predicted net profit of $404 million.
Sony also recorded an operating profit of 230.1 billion yen ($2.45 billion) (.pdf) in comparison with a loss of 67.3 billion yen ($820 million) in the last fiscal year.
Sales increased by 4.7 percent to 6,800 billion yen ($72 million). The slight increase in sales has been attributed to the takeover of Sony Ericsson Mobile -- now known as Sony Mobile Communications, as well as good exchange rates and an increase of financial services revenue.
Restructuring charges are expected to be approximately 50 billion yen for the fiscal year ending March 31 2014, in comparison to 77.5 billion yen for the 2013 fiscal year.
Sony has forecast an operating profit of 230 billion yen over this business year. Analysts surveyed by Reuters suggest this figure may be closer to 210 billion yen. The Japanese electronics maker expects that sales revenue will increase "significantly" year-on-year due to the depreciation of the yen and an increase in sales in the electronics businesses.
The electronics firm has experienced severe financial difficulty recently, as weak yen and falling consumer demand impacted the Japanese company's sale of products including LCD screens, cameras and consoles.
Even though Sony's electronics business is far from healthy, the firm has sold off a number of assets this year to climb back up to profitability -- including the sale of offices in Tokyo and New York, and the sale of the company's chemical product businesses. The electronics maker also sold a 13 percent stake in medical services provider DeNA. In addition, Sony has made a number of job cuts, slicing its workforce by 10,000 across the globe.
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As any celebrity will admit, if you've been out of the public spotlight for a few years, it can be pretty tough to get back on your feet.
Especially if you have four of them.
Just ask Morris—Morris the Cat, for those of you too young to remember the plump, orange tabby who pitched 9Lives cat food on TV. With his sardonic wit and sour puss, Morris starred in some 60 commercials for the brand between 1969 and 1978. An immediate hit with audiences, Morris was the original celebricat. He co-starred in a film with Burt Reynolds, appeared on Oprah and even ran for president (twice). And while Morris never really retired, he did take quite a few naps in recent years.
But all that changed two weeks ago when 9Lives asked Morris to pad back into the spotlight and star in "Cat's Eye View," an interactive online video shot from the cat's perspective, letting viewers romp around the house to do "Morris-approved" cat things (including—surprise!—chowing down on 9Lives).
No doubt, the inexplicable popularity of those nouveau spokescats had something to do with Morris’ “reboot,” to use the company term. But one thing’s sure: Morris is back, and these days he’s a very busy cat. Fortunately, Morris (presumably with the help of a human underling at 9Lives) agreed to take some time out of his single daily waking hour to speak with us about his fame, his career and tender slices of beef in gravy.
You've starred in so many TV commercials, Morris, but it’s been quite a few years since your last one. What was it like being back in front of the camera?
I love it. It's been so much fun to expand my work as an artist and thought leader. To stay creative, I really try to think outside of the box. Then inside of the box. Then outside again. Cats do love boxes.
Is being a celebrity cat different today than it was in the 1980s?
What is very different these days is how many ways there are to engage with my fans. I'm all about Twitter. I'm really enjoying Tumblr. Have you been wondering why more cat foodies don't post cat food photos online? Check out my Instagram for a delicious PB&J+9 or a tasty kitty sundae.
You look so young and spry in this spot, Morris. Nobody would ever guess that you’ve been a TV star since the 1970s. Other than eating 9Lives brand cat food, how do you keep your youthful profile?
I think staying young is all about living well and focusing on what's truly important—prioritizing things like napping, eating and playing. Life isn't a zero-sum game: You can both nap AND play. Just the other day on Twitter, I live-demoed a Fitbit. Not only did my Fitbit tell me that I took 36 steps in two hours, but I also realized that because cats have four legs and humans have two, I could double my stats. Seventy-two steps! I had no idea I was such a 'cathlete.' I think it's important to mix things up. For instance, sometimes I eat, nap, eat, nap, nap. Other times, I nap, eat, nap, eat, nap. Variety is the spice of life. Remember, you only live 9-nce (YOL9 for short).
The "Cat's Eye View" interactive video experience lets people see what it's like to be you on a romp around the house. Is your average day really that busy? I read that cats sleep 20 hours a day.
You can't believe everything you read, Robert. I sleep 16, 17, 18, maybe 19 hours a day. But definitely not 20 hours. That would be excessive. I do think that the amazing thing about "Cat's Eye View" is that through the wonders of wearable technology, the American public finally gets an insider's look at the life of a celebrity cat. Sure, I'm a big-time star, but I still step into my litter box one leg at a time.
That's so reassuring.
Really, Robert, I'm just like you, only furrier. In "Cat's Eye View," you'll see the world through my eyes: You'll stare down a suspicious looking goldfish. You'll unspool a fresh roll of Charmin. You'll even help redecorate the living room by knocking over some unsightly tabletop clutter. When I watch it myself, it's so moving that I get all choked up—oh wait, that was just a hair ball.
Did the fact that cats are so popular on the Internet play any role in your—how shall I put this—publicity makeover? No disrespect.
I think it's a chicken and egg question—or at least a 9Lives-Real-Flaked-Tuna-&-Egg-Bits-in-Sauce dilemma. Are cats popular because of the Internet, or is the Internet popular because of cats? Think about that one for awhile. Seriously, it will blow your mind.
It sort of has already.
I wouldn't call my recent spokescat duties a makeover exactly (cats don't particularly like to wear mascara), but I do think the folks at 9Lives would tell you that it's more of a franchise "reboot"—just like they did for Batman or James Bond. I don't know what "reboot" means exactly (fancy marketing jargon), but I do know that I always enjoy cramming myself into my human's Ugg boots.
I'm old enough to remember your commercials from the 1980s, and you seemed a lot more cynical back then, Morris. Have you mellowed out in recent years?
The 1980s were a different time. Back in the go-go '80s, everyone was in shoulder pads with big hair. These days, I'm all about living well. I want to help cats and humans make the most of their daily lives. I'm not a fan of everything, but if it helps enhance the human-feline connection, then I just might decide to make it #morrisapproved.
Your bio says that you ran for president in 1988. Would you ever consider doing that again?
Did someone tell you that I was running for president again? I can't comment on that right now. It sounds like either the Democats or the Kittypublicans let the cat out of the bag. No seriously, I was in a bag this morning. I'm Morris the Cat, and I approve this message.
Does it bother you that that so-called Grumpy Cat gets so much attention for being grumpy when it was really you who pioneered cat grumpiness?
I'm charmingly choosy, not grumpy. How could I possibly be grumpy when my spokescat duties afford me a lifetime supply of the world's most delicious food, 9Lives? In general, I'm so proud of all of the other cats making a name for themselves. Grumpy Cat is the Michelangelo of grumpiness. Lil BUB is the Michael Jordan of the kitty tongue wag. Have you seen Maru? That cat can stuff himself into a box like nobody's business. What I love is that I'm no longer the only cat in the celebrity game. It used to be a little lonely at the top. Besides, imitation is the sincerest form of cattery.
Do you have any advice for other cats who dream of attaining your level of stardom?
Always chase your dreams. They are easier to catch than that red laser dot.
Here are a couple more classic TV spots from the Morris vault.
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Texas Rangers prospect Joey Gallo showed off his power with a soaring two-run homer in the sixth inning to give the U.S. team the lead for good in a 3-2 victory over the World squad Sunday at the All-Star Futures Game for baseball's best minor leaguers.
Gallo's one-out drive to right field off Houston Astros right-hander Michael Feliz was estimated at 419 feet. The 20-year-old third baseman for Double-A Frisco hit several other balls farther than that during a head-turning batting practice display at Target Field.
The assumed successor for four-time All-Star Adrian Beltre with the Rangers, Gallo has 31 homers and 73 RBIs this season in 85 games. He followed a two-run homer in the top of the sixth by Javier Baez against Washington Nationals right-hander Lucas Giolito.
With so many bad teams in recent seasons, the Chicago Cubs have been collecting a tantalizing bunch of potential stars, with Baez and Kris Bryant at the top of the list.
Baez, the ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft, and Bryant, the second selection in 2013, comprise the left side of the infield for Triple-A affiliate Iowa.
Bryant went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts while playing third base for the U.S team, which has won five straight Futures Games, raised its record to 10-6 since the exhibition was started in 1999.
Until the Baez-Gallo home run derby that broke out in the sixth, this was much more of a showcase of pitching prospects, mirroring the major league trend toward more dominance on the mound and shrinking slugging percentages.
The first five U.S. pitchers tossed scoreless innings, starting with Henry Owens, the Double-A lefty for the Boston Red Sox.
Minnesota Twins right-hander Alex Meyer, who could soon be pitching on the same mound for the big league team, needed only four pitches for the fourth. His fastball reached 97 mph.
Meyer, acquired from the Nationals in a trade for center fielder Denard Span, has 103 strikeouts in 89-plus innings for Triple-A Rochester.
World team starter Jose Berrios, another Twins prospect, taken with the 32nd overall pick in the 2012 draft, struck out center fielder Michael Taylor of the Nationals to start the game and pitched a 1-2-3 inning.
Julio Urias, a native of Sinaloa, Mexico, currently at Class A Rancho Cucamonga for the Los Angeles Dodgers, became the youngest-ever Futures Game player. Urias, who will turn 18 next month, pitched a perfect fifth. He struck out Taylor with a 94 mph fastball.
New York Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard, who started the game last year at his future home, Citi Field, got the save.
Twins fans in attendance also had World team first baseman Kennys Vargas to cheer, the David Ortiz clone who hit a double in four at-bats in the cleanup spot.
The U.S. team was supervised by former Twins manager Tom Kelly, currently a special instructor for the organization. Hall of Fame pitcher Bert Blyleven, who played for Kelly on the 1987 World Series-winning club, managed the World team.
In an ode to his Dutch heritage and class-clown personality, Blyleven presented the lineups before the game while wearing an oversized pair of yellow wooden shoes.
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The New England Patriots have piled up points and big victory margins against NFL division leaders.
Now they're preparing to face another one and leaving all those routs behind.
"Nobody is happier than I am when we win, but right now all that doesn't really mean anything going into Green Bay," coach Bill Belichick said Monday. "They're playing real good football now."
The Patriots will be playing in Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 5-0 this season with their own string of runaways — against Minnesota (42-10), Carolina (38-17), Chicago (55-14) and Philadelphia (53-20) in their past four home games.
New England (9-2) can match that with the last four games in its current seven-game winning streak — against Chicago (51-23), Denver (43-21), Indianapolis (42-20) and Detroit (34-9).
So why not call Sunday's game The Blowout Bowl?
Patriots special teams captain Matthew Slater is reluctant to use that word.
"It's not realistic for us to expect to continue to blow teams out like that, or, I don't want to say blow out, but win by a large margin," he said. "I can't really put my finger on what it is. I think it's a culmination of things and preparation, I think, is at the forefront of that.
"But you've got to have some breaks along the way and we've certainly had our fair share of those."
More importantly, the Patriots have simply dominated most opponents during their winning streak. Starting with a 43-17 win over Cincinnati, four of those seven wins have been by at least 22 points against teams that were in first place entering the games.
In the latest, they picked apart the team that had allowed the fewest points in the NFL, scoring 34 on Sunday, the most against the Lions (7-4) all season.
After the Patriots scored a touchdown with just under two minutes to go on a 1-yard run by LeGarrette Blount, Lions center Dominic Raiola retaliated on the last play of the game.
He tried a low cut block at the knees of rookie defensive lineman Zach Moore as quarterback Matthew Stafford was taking a knee.
"I cut him," Raiola told the Detroit Free Press. "We took a knee, so I cut the nose (tackle). They went for six (a touchdown). They went for a touchdown at two minutes. They could have took three knees and the game could have been over. It's football. He wants to keep playing football, let's play football. Not a big deal. It's football."
Moore was barely hit on the block and kept cool.
"Just being professional, keeping my composure, something I've had my entire football career," he said Monday. "When you look at the score, I'd probably be mad, too."
The NFL plans to review that play and an earlier one where Raiola appeared to punch Moore in the back of the helmet for a possible fine, but no suspension, Michael Signora, vice president of football communications for the NFL, said in an email Monday.
"I don't want to really get into how the situation works itself out," Moore said. "You've got to turn the page and start today on our opponent this Sunday."
The Patriots and Packers (8-3) are one-two in the NFL in both points per game and average margin of victory.
In Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (ranked first) and New England's Tom Brady (sixth), they have two of the best quarterbacks.
Patriots tight end Tim Wright caught two touchdown passes from Brady on Sunday and has contributed to the blowouts by scoring on six of his 23 receptions.
"I would just say taking it one play at a time, not looking at the scoreboard" keeps the offense rolling, Wright said. "It all builds up at the end of the game when you look at the scoreboard at the points that we're beating teams by."
The more they score, the more the momentum and confidence grow.
"When you're able to string together a few scoring drives or, defensively, have a big stop, or special teams score a touchdown, it gives you a lot of confidence," Slater said, "and confidence is contagious. So when our group is showing confidence and we're rolling, we've been fortunate enough to continue to be able to do that."
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AP NFL website: www.pro32.ap.org and www.twitter.com/AP_NFL
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Islamic hard-liners and reformists both claimed victory in Iran's elections Saturday, with returns showing conservatives ahead in the race for parliament but a reformist boycott limiting voter turnout.
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (search) said the winner of the election was the Iranian nation. He was upbeat about voter turnout, even though it marked a drop from previous elections.
"The loser of this election is the United States, Zionism and enemies of the Iranian nation," he told state media.
A reformist who called for a boycott, Ali Shakourirad (search), pointed to a voter turnout of less than 30 percent in the capital, Tehran, calling the poll "a big defeat for conservatives."
Official partial returns also suggested the boycott had an impact elsewhere in the country, with voter turnout some 15 percent lower than in elections four years ago.
That trend, if it holds, would mark a significant moral victory for liberals who urged a boycott after hard-line clerics barred some 2,400 reformist from running for the 290-seat parliament.
Conservatives hoped people would ignore the boycott, showing the strength of the Islamic state 25 years after the revolution that ousted the secular, pro-Western shah. Reformists hoped low turnout would strengthen their drive for openness and accountability.
Reformists have complained that the vote was rigged, and the United States also criticized the disqualifications of candidates including the biggest names in liberal politics. Among them was Mohammad Reza Khatami (search), the brother of Iran's reformist president and deputy speaker of the outgoing parliament.
In the 2000 elections, hard-liners lost control of the parliament for the first time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. But when the next legislature convenes in June, they should have a comfortable majority.
Results for nearly 60 percent of the legislature gave hard-liners more than 110 seats — 36 short of the majority they were widely expected to get, the Interior Ministry said.
In Tehran, hard-liners won about 25 of the 30 seats declared so far, according to results broadcast on television.
With the ballot weighted with conservatives, coupled with the reformist boycott, Islamic hard-liners were likely to win from the start. Voter turnout was the real drama in Saturday's race.
Voter turnout was 43.29 percent, the Interior Ministry said, with about half of Iran's 207 districts counted. That would mark a big drop from the 67.2 percent in the last parliament elections in 2000.
Government officials tried to put the turnout in the best light.
"Those who were overly influenced by the political situation failed to predict the people's enthusiastic participation," Information Minister Ali Yunesi told state-run television.
"The people's blessed and magnificent participation in yesterday's elections foiled plots and guaranteed the country's greatness."
Even before the vote, Rajab Ali Mazrouli, a leading member of the pro-reform Islamic Participation Front, had predicted the low turnout but conceded that hard-liners would probably take control of parliament.
"Most of the winners this time are conservatives," he said. "It was a race without competition."
A victory for conservatives also consolidate hard-line control at a sensitive time in the Middle East. In Iraq, Shiite Muslims are pressing for early elections and look to predominantly Shiite Iran for backing. The United States and its allies, meanwhile, are questioning Iran's denials about seeking nuclear arms technology.
More than 46 million people ages 15 and over were eligible to vote. Voting was extended for four hours in an attempt to get every last ballot.
State television and radio broadcast a nonstop series of reports and appeals aimed at stirring voters. Senior Islamic clerics described voting as a religious duty.
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This is a partial transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," February 12, 2007, that has been edited for clarity.
BILL O'REILLY, HOST: "Impact" segment tonight, as you know, former border patrol agent Ignacio Ramos, convicted of shooting a Mexican illegal alien dope dealer, was roughed up in prison last week. "Factor" producer Jesse Watters traveled to Mississippi to ask the warden of the Yazoo city prison, Constance Reese, how that could possibly happen.
But Ms. Reese who's driving this car now, spotted us, and sped away. She successfully evaded Jesse. But he did talk to an official, who says the prison is chaotic.
DAN DITTO, YAZOO CITY PRISON AGENT: This is a system out of control. Period. The warden should have caught it. I mean, when they said they were going to send this high publicity guy here, it's like had she been referring on to the director how out of control that prison was, if she had been telling the truth about, you know, what was going on, there's just no way to mince words on that and stuff. The inmates are running the system.
O'REILLY: Now how could the inmates be running a federal penitentiary?
Joining us now from Washington is Tara Setmayer, communications director for Congressman Dan Rohrabacher.
Ms. Setmayer toured the prison with Warden Constance Reese and met with Ramos.
First of all, let's talk about the agent. What condition is he in? What did he say to you?
TARA SETMAYER, VISITED AGENT RAMOS IN PRISON: Well, to classify his injuries as minor, I think, is disingenuous on the part of the prison.
He was clearly severely beaten. He was bruised from the top of his shoulder, all the way down to his elbow, yellow, purple, deep bruises.
He had stomp marks on his back, on his shoulder blades with the actual imprint of the sole of the boots that were used to attack him. He had abrasions and bruises along his ribs.
His entire left side of his body, his wrist and knees were scratched up. He was severely beaten. And he also suffered from nausea for a couple days, which meant to me he had a concussion. But he had no medical attention until Monday from a nurse and then Wednesday from a doctor.
O'REILLY: And when he was beaten?
SETMAYER: There's no way to determine that. He was beaten on Saturday evening.
O'REILLY: All right, so it's 48 hours before he got medical attention.
Now did you get to the bottom of why Ramos was in with the general population when anybody would have known that you got to protect the man and keep him away from those people?
SETMAYER: Well, what the warden explained to me — she said that she encourages the prisoners to assimilate into the general population because of how restrictive special housing is, which it is. I mean, the — special housing is just a euphemism for isolation. And they have no privileges there. They can only use the phone once every 30 days. They're in their prison cells for 23 hours a day. They have recreation in cages, as opposed to low security where they're in a dormitory style cubicle and they have more freedom.
O'REILLY: But isn't there any — in a federal penitentiary, isn't there any area where high danger prisoners can be kept without punishing them in?
SETMAYER: One would think.
O'REILLY: Yes, one would think.
SETMAYER: One would think. And apparently that's not the case. I mean, she gave us the tour of the facility as if this were very matter of fact. She didn't really have a sense of urgency. And that concerned me.
O'REILLY: All right, because now Ramos is in the secured wing, where he doesn't get a lot of time outside. He doesn't get a phone. Correct?
SETMAYER: That's right.
O'REILLY: All right, they got him out of there.
SETMAYER: One hour a day.
O'REILLY: Now he could have been killed - easily killed. And does Reese understand that or care?
SETMAYER: Well absolutely. He was attacked by six prisoners apparently. And there's only one correctional officer responsible for 147 inmates in this part of the unit. And that correctional officer was doing the count, which they do every night at 10:00 on the other side of the unit.
So the two inmates who were rooming with Mr. Ramos knew that the hit was coming. They left the cubicle. And that's when the three individuals, which ended up to be six, came in and they began this assault on him.
And it took another inmate to come and escort Mr. Ramos over to the shift lieutenant to report what took place.
And I can tell you that when I queried Constance Reese about why wouldn't you take precautionary measures. She said to me, well, do you really think that this media attention is doing a service for Mr. Ramos? He's going to be identified no matter where he goes. And that troubled me.
O'REILLY: Well, look, this woman is an incompetent. We know that. The Bureau of Prisons has no satisfactory answer. As we discussed, there should be an area for prisoners in danger, where they're not punished.
SETMAYER: That's right.
O'REILLY: And all of these things. But what's going to happen now? I mean, Congressman Rohrabacher didn't go down with you. You were down there with Congressman Tancredo.
But surely, you have to replace Reese. She's got to go. And the Bureau of Prisons head, I would assume he's got to go too if what the union — we just heard the union president just say this prison is out of control and being run by the inmates. How can that happen at the federal level?
SETMAYER: Well, that's what we're trying to get to the bottom of. I know Congressman Duncan Hunter has called for the resignation of Mr. Lapin. And you know, Constance Reese, the whole — I'm glad we had the opportunity to take a look first-hand, because people needed to see what was going on there and needed to visit with Mr. Ramos.
But she would not allow us to see the photos that were taken. She wouldn't allow us to review any of the reports. To my understanding, an investigation didn't even begin into this incident until about Tuesday. So people need to understand that we're going to try and make sure Mr. Ramos (INAUDIBLE) are freed.
O'REILLY: All right. Well, let's protect them first.
SETMAYER: Free on bond.
O'REILLY: Let's protect them, then we'll get them out of there. But Reese has got to go. And so does Latham. They've got to go. Ms. Setmayer, thanks very much.
Watch "The O'Reilly Factor" weeknights at 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET and listen to the "Radio Factor!"
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The ocean, which has absorbed some excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere for centuries, may be losing that ability, a new report says.
The buildup of carbon dioxide in the air since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised concerns that it would trap solar energy and cause a warming of the climate.
The oceans are believed to absorb about one-quarter of human-related carbon emissions.
• Click here to visit FOXNews.com's Natural Science Center.
But researchers reporting in the journal Science say at least one large ocean area — the Southern Ocean that surrounds Antarctica — seems to be losing its ability to take up the gas.
Their four-year study concluded that an increase in winds over the Southern Ocean is preventing it from absorbing more carbon and is causing the sea to release some of the gas that it had stored.
"This is serious. All climate models predict that this kind of 'feedback' will continue and intensify during this century," lead author Corinne Le Quere of England's University of East Anglia said in a statement.
In addition to East Anglia, researchers participating in the study were from the British Antarctic Survey and the Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany.
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Two teachers were suspended for binding a teen student to a chair and subjecting him to humilation and mockey at a distinguished British school in an incident captured on video., according to UK's Daily Mail.
A classmate's camera phone recorded the 16-year-old boy with hands and feet tied by electrical wire while voices believed to be those of the instructors taunted him: "Give us a shout when you are ready to start grovelling," said the report.
Click here to view the story and video on the Daily Mail Web site.
UK police and social service agencies are investigating the incident, which occured at the prestigious Folkestone Academy, the Daily Mail reported.
School administrators learned of the act eight days later after viewing the footage.
John Patterson, the school's headmaster condemned the act in a letter to the boy's parents.
"Although this incident may have been intended to be good-humored, the academy sees the alleged behavior as totally inappropriate and unacceptable within a school."
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Spb Software House sent us a preview copy of its latest product, which was just announced today. Spb Imageer is a feature-packed photo viewing and editing application for JPEG images.
Spb Imageer has some unique features that I haven't seen in other applications, and the access speed is the fastest I have seen on a Pocket PC. This mini-review will cover some of the unique aspects of the software and some popular functions, but there are a ton of features that you should check out yourself using the free 15-day trial version. You can purchase the full version for US$14.95.
The application takes about 1.6 MB of storage space on your device, and is installed in the traditional executable/ActiveSync method. If you have a digital camera with an SD card like I do (or a CF card and a device with a CF slot) and want to pop in your external card and use Spb Imageer, you should install it into RAM. Spb Imageer also installs an ActiveSync filter that will appear when you attempt to copy and paste images onto your device from a desktop computer. The filter allows you to optimize the photo for your mobile device, and lets you select the photo size, rotation, and quality. You can specify the settings for all photos at the same time so the filter doesn't appear for each photo in the group you are copying over.
ActiveSync filter options
One unique feature to Spb Imageer is the storage card notification function. If you pop a storage card into your device with any photos on it, a window will appear (unless you turn the option off) that gives you 6 options. You can choose to View Slideshow, Browse Pictures, Optimize and Save to Folder, Create an Album, Publish to Web , or Open in File Explorer . After a few seconds the window will minimize if you do not take any action. You can access the choices again by tapping the storage card icon on your top toolbar.
This window appears when you insert a storage card
Slideshow preferences include setting the delay between photos, rotating them as needed, looping the show, and choosing from 22 different effects. A preview of the effects is shown in the options screen. It is very nice to just pop in my camera's SD card and tap View a Slideshow to show off my photos to family and friends. There are many other preferences you can specify using the Tools > Options menu, including file associations, notes settings, file list, and picture settings.
Slideshow options
You can view photos in thumbnail, detailed thumbnail, or list view, with two, three, or four photos across a row. I have tried a few photo viewing applications and I have never seen one show me the thumbnails faster than Spb Imageer. This is a huge benefit to this application since I hate waiting for my image thumbnails to appear when I am looking for a specific one to show off or edit.
Detailed thumbnails and viewing options
In the main Spb Imageer window the View menu allows you to select between Slideshow and Properties . The Tools menu allows you to Create a New Folder, Create an Album, Publish to the Web , access the Options settings, and Register the product. Tapping and holding throughout the application also brings up many of these same choices.
The View menu changes slightly when you open up a specific photo to work with. There are several zoom levels and rotation choices in the menu. Over on the right side of the bottom toolbar you will find the two editing tools. The first one with the pen icon allows you to add text, drawings, or voice recording notes to the photo. The last one to the right is the Editor function. Features in the Editor include resize, sharpen, blur, adjust the hue, saturation, lightness, and RGB channels, crop, redeye adjustment, brightness, and contrast.
Adding a drawing is quick
Another unique feature is the ability to publish to the Web. After you select the option to publish to the Web and select the photo(s) you want to publish you are taken through a 6-step wizard that optimizes the photos for publishing. The images are published to the Fotki website, and the first time you run through it you will be prompted to set up a free account right from your Pocket PC. While this is a nice way to share images with family and friends, I would love the ability to upload images using FTP right to a website.
Publish and Optimize Wizard
I have just touched on the functions available in Spb Imageer, and after two weeks of using the program I am very impressed with the available options. It has been rock solid and FAST, and I highly recommend you give it a try.
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USA Today: “Republicans began a new week pointing fingers at each other Sunday following a 16-day government shutdown and near-default that left the nation worse off and the GOP taking most of the blame. If there was a theme to the round of Sunday morning talk shows looking back at the fiasco, it was the determination of most Republicans — from Senate leaders to past and potential future presidential candidates — to move on rather than focus on this month's failed battles.”
Ted Cruz: “I don’t work for the party bosses in Washington. I work for the people of Texas and I fight for them.”
Cruz may have fatally imperiled any hope he has of winning a presidential election with his strategy the last few weeks, but conservatives love him and Tea Partiers see him as a hero. National Journal looks at those trying to emulate him.
Politico: “Nearly a dozen House Republican incumbents already have credible challengers, and conservative groups expect that number to grow in the coming months as races develop and deadlines approach to qualify for the ballot.” And Tea Party House members are refusing to contribute to the NRCC.On the other hand, “The twin fiscal crises that did a number on GOP approval ratings nationwide are providing a badly needed boost to Democratic candidate recruitment efforts.
Jeb Bush: "Some guy told me that on the plane in -- stuck on O'Hare Airport. He said he was supporting Obama. This was early in the primary and I go, 'Why?' And he goes, 'Well, we had a Bush, then we had a Clinton. Then we had a Bush. And now we're going to have a Clinton.' And then he looked at me and said, 'And then we're going to have a Bush.' So he had an interesting perspective. I think some people believe that. That won't be a motivating factor in my decision, though."
Democrats are from Venus, Republicans are from Mars… A National Journal insider’s poll finds that Republicans think Obamacare will be a major issue in 2014, Democrats think it probably won’t.
NEW JERSEY: The Asbury Park Press: “They were pronounced husband and husband, wife and wife. Shore area same-sex couples eloped early Monday, when gay marriage became legal in New Jersey.”
The Star Ledger: “At 12:01 this morning, dozens of gay couples were joined in matrimony as New Jersey became the 14th state to allow same-sex marriage. From city hall in Newark to the boardwalk in Asbury Park, pairs of brides and grooms tied the knot in joyous ceremonies that celebrated love while mindful of their newly granted legal status.”
The Trenton Times: “Gov. Chris Christie’s administration has appealed to the state Supreme Court to overturn Jacobson’s ruling and sought a stay to prevent same-sex marriage while the case is pending. But the N.J. Supreme Court ruled Friday that there’s no justifiable reason to hold back on same-sex marriage, starting today. The Supreme Court scheduled arguments in the case for early January.” More: The ruling was a setback to Gov. Christie, who is opposed to gay marriage and vetoed legislation in 2012 that would have allowed same-sex couples to wed. Christie, instead, has called for a statewide referendum. Gay rights advocates, meanwhile, have been waging an aggressive campaign to secure a super-majority to override Christie’s veto. They argue that a fundamental right like constitutional equality should not be subject to a public vote.”
SOUTH CAROLINA: Mark Sanford’s fiancée/ex-mistress has given an on-camera interview for the first time in Argentina in which she talks about Sanford.
VIRGINIA: Bill Clinton will campaign with Terry McAuliffe (D) for three days starting Sunday, Oct. 27. USA Today: “Former secretary of State -- and potential 2016 president candidate -- Hillary Rodham Clinton stumped for McAuliffe over the weekend.”
Wow. The Richmond Times-Dispatch chooses to endorse no one for governor. Headline with red x’s through the faces of McAuliffe, Ken Cuccinelli (R) and Robert Sarvis (Libertarian): “Our choice for governor in 2013: none of the above.” From the editorial: “The major-party candidates have earned the citizenry’s derision. The third-party alternative has run a more exemplary race yet does not qualify as a suitable option. We cannot in good conscience endorse a candidate for governor. … This marks, we believe, the first time in modern Virginia that The Times-Dispatch has not endorsed a gubernatorial nominee. … We find it impossible to endorse any of the 2013 candidates with even minimal zeal.”
The ed board says Sarvis would be “in over his head,” but, it adds, “A vote for him would not be wasted but would serve notice to Republicans and Democrats that the electorate rejects their surly antics. Citizens whose votes reflect their ideals do not throw away their ballots.”
WYOMING: Because he has a book out, Dick Cheney is talking again, here in an interview with USA Today. And he makes no apologies for his daughter running against an old friend: “Dick Cheney has known Wyoming Sen. Mike Enzi for decades, but the former vice president has no apologies about his daughter's primary challenge to the three-term Republican incumbent that has divided friends and neighbors in the Cowboy State. ‘How did Jerry Ford get elected?’ the former vice president demands… ‘He beat an incumbent Republican congressman when he got back from World War II and decided things weren't working the way they should. And he got to be Republican leader of the House.’ Not to mention president of the United States, with Cheney as his White House chief of staff.”
And: "She didn't ask if she could run," her father says. "She's very independent and very committed. This is something she really wanted to do. I'm proud as hell of her. ... "She represents exactly what we need as a political party. We need to re-energize the base, rejuvenate our party and attract new talent, bring along the next generation. That's kind of the reason she's running." He adds: "Some of our best leaders are revolutionaries."
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As part of its April update to its Microsoft Support Lifecycle Web site, Microsoft made a couple of adjustments to its security and overall product-support policies.
On the security front, Microsoft is moving more of its security fixes and updates under Microsoft Update. As explained on the company's support site:
"Under the Security Update Download process, Microsoft previously provided security updates for Business and Developer products via Microsoft Update during the five years of the Mainstream Support phase, and the first two years of Extended Support. The remaining three years of Extended Support required customers to obtain the security updates from the Microsoft Download Center rather than via Microsoft Update. "With the clarification to the Security Update Download process, the Extended Support phase has been modified to include Microsoft Security Updates via Microsoft Update for the full five years of Extended Support. Due to technical limitations in Microsoft Office 2000, updates for customers will not be available via Microsoft Update, which will remain an exception to this updated policy."
In terms of overall support, Microsoft clarified its policies for "minor" product releases. In short, minor product releases will be supported under the same terms as the major product which precedes them. (In other words, Windows Server 2003 R2 will be supported for the same length of time as Windows Server 2003.) As detailed on the Technet Blog site for the U.S. Higher Education West Region ATU:
"In the past, Microsoft has supported products in the same product family by using the same support timeline. In the majority of the cases, the support timeline has not been an issue, as products in the same family have been released around the same time. However, when minor products have been released at a later date, customers have experienced confusion in determining the support end date. Microsoft is clarifying the policy around the release of these minor products today. "Moving forward, Microsoft products will be classified as either major or minor products. Minor products will take on the support timeline of the major product, while major products will always restart the Microsoft Support Lifecycle clock. Microsoft will continue to publish the support timeline of all products on the external site http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle."
Additionally, a few Microsoft products are about to move into a different support phase in 2007, Among the ones of which customers should be aware:
* Windows Server 2003 SP (Service Pack 0, a k a, release to manufacturing version) moves to "non-supported" status on April 10, 2007 * Windows XP Embedded SP1 moves to "non-supported" status on April 10, 2007 * Visual Studio .Net 2002 moves from mainstream to "extended" support on July 10, 2007 * Software Update Services (SUS) 1.0 and 1.0 SP1 move to "non-supported" status on July 10, 2007 * SQL Server 2000 SP3a moves to "non-supported" status on July 10, 2007 * Great Plains 8.0 and 8.0 Standard move from mainstream to "non-supported" status on October 9, 2007
(Microsoft's Extended support is paid, not free (except for security hotfixes) and is available for business and developer software only.)
Anyone affected -- either positively or negatively -- by any of these changes?
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Today's higher-than-expected USDCNY fix of 6.4663 has simultaneously pushed the CNY to below 98 against its trade weighted basket. I think a break of 98 would lead the market to question the credibility of the government's stable CNY vs. basket policy. In addition, what is crucial to us here is the combination of CNY falling versus the basket while USDCNY is rising would signal a clear policy desire for a weak CNY. If this policy bias continues, it will be disruptive for EM FX, and in particular, my short-term bullish Asia FX view. MYR and SGD have been most responsive to recent changes in CNY/CNH, while THB and PHP appear least affected. Capital outflow from China is likely to rise again if USDCNY continues to trend higher. However, this vicious circle is not a given. If the USD resumes weakening in line with forecasts for USD-G10, it would allow for a stable or lower USDCNY to relieve stress. For the time being, we do see stress levels climbing in emerging markets and equities as oil disrupts risk friendly price action as well.
Brent crude has broken below a key level, the low from 15 March at 38.32, taking it through the bottom end of a trend channel. Combined with sitting at the 100DMA at 37.24 and then potential to move below the 50DMA at 36.54, the technical setup for the oil market isn't looking great. Interestingly the correlation with the USD has been weakening recently, suggesting that dovish Fed speak causing any further declines in the USD may now have limited upside for oil. Today we find that Saudi Arabia has banned Iran oil from being shipped via its waters, another sign of the worries about transfer of oil trade market share. Any hopes for an oil output freeze to be announced at the 17 April OPEC meeting are diminishing by the day making oil-related currencies weaken. 110.65 was a key level to watch for USDJPY. This was the low from 17 March and is probably being closely watched by the BoJ. This morning's headline that the BoJ, MoF and FSA are meeting to discuss market developments failed to spur a USDJPY rally as the Topix continues to underperform other Asian equity markets. Yield differentials is not helping the JPY either, with the drop in oil and easing inflation expectations in the last month global yields have been grinding lower.
The solid gains Treasuries posted in late trading Friday, reversing what ended up being only a small sell-off through the futures close in response to the solid employment report, saw only a partial reversal during a very quiet Monday, leaving yields slightly lower across the curve on a 3:00 close basis. The market's lack of enthusiasm about the solid looking employment report was justified by the Fed's labor market conditions index holding in negative territory for a third straight month for the first time since the recession ended, showing a net worsening in labor market conditions broadly considered despite continued elevation in headline payroll numbers.
Core inflation popping up to 1.7% from 1.3% - if only temporarily probably we think - and the labor market deteriorating steadily sure wasn't where the balance of risks to achieving the Fed's dual mandate goals seemed to be tilted when they hiked rates in December. Along with the negative LMCI result, downward revisions in the factory orders report to the already weak capital goods orders and shipments figures in the durable goods report pointed to a worse decline in Q1 business investment after the sharp drop in auto sales reported Friday lowered the outlook for consumption. There have been some positive recent indications in the headline payroll upside and the ISM jumping back above 50, but the overall growth backdrop still looks soft.
Click to enlarge
I continue to see Q1 GDP tracking at 0.7%, as upside in inventories in the factory orders report offset weakness in capital equipment sale, but downside risks to inventories in Q2 GDP are looking pronounced even if final demand picks up. So the market swung back to pricing out Fed rate-hiking risk after only a modest reversal on Friday of the big shift down in the rate path in futures in response to Chair Yellen's speech last Tuesday, ignoring the arguments of Boston Fed President Rosengren that "the very slow removal of accommodation reflected in futures market pricing could prove too pessimistic." The market's back down to pricing only about a 25% chance of a June hike and 80% chance of one 25 bp this year. Overall, the market remains pessimistic on inflation and global growth, today's risk reduction has brought prices to support levels in almost all asset classes. If we see sustained breaks in Emerging Markets FX, equities and global equities this move could gather some momentum behind it but for the time being things remain above the recent support levels, and could be a good place taking on some risk.
(NYSEARCA:EEM), (NYSEARCA:VWO), (NYSEARCA:DEM), (NYSEARCA:EDC), (NYSEARCA:IEF), (NYSEARCA:SHY), (NYSEARCA:TBF), (NYSEARCA:EDV), (NYSEARCA:BOND), (NYSEARCA:TLT), (NYSEARCA:SPXL), (NYSEARCA:OIL), (NYSEARCA:IVE), (NYSEARCA:DTO), (NYSEARCA:OLO), (NYSEARCA:SZO)
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Thesis
O'Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ:ORLY) ("O'Reilly", "ORLY", or the "Company") has been a slam-dunk investment for shareholders so far. Once market participants figured out that selling aftermarket auto parts was a distinctly superior activity in a sector which is known for its high cyclicality, capital intensity, and low margins, longs piled on and never looked back.
Click to enlarge
Yet, the tailwinds that drove ORLY to these great heights appear to be waning, despite industry headlines suggesting otherwise. Bulls point to a potentially-peaking new auto sales cycle and an increasing average vehicle age as justification for being long. However, longs appear to be missing a couple of nuances such as the contention that new auto sales is unlikely to be anywhere near the peak of the cycle (i.e. it still has room to climb), and that the increasing average vehicle age is misleading on the surface and actually signals a slowdown. There is also a case to be made for long-term pricing pressure due to customer consolidation in the professional segment.
Moreover, channel checks (specifically, CarMax's quarterly commentary) suggest that the slowdown could surface in the Company's financials within the next few quarters. Although Texas may seem to be a potential problem given the continued oil depression, a closer look suggests that although there is a bear case to be made for O'Reilly, Texas is not part of it.
Judging by the current ~30x earnings multiple that ORLY is priced at, it appears that the market has not taken into account a potential slowdown that may be just around the corner. In my view, longs might want to exit their positions in light of this information. Shorting would be inadvisable, given the low visibility on timing, despite the presence of clear catalysts - y/y comp weakness and margin pressure.
Quick Background
As a reminder, ORLY sells aftermarket automotive parts. Sales are spread 60/40 between DIY customers and professional service providers (i.e. independent body shops, multi-shop operators, etc). Demand for aftermarket parts is largely driven by three main factors - 1) vehicle miles driven, 2) average age and quality of vehicles, and 3) unemployment levels. Management intends to drive the top-line through same-store sales growth, opening new stores, and selectively pursuing acquisitions.
Texas Isn't The Problem
Given the market's unsurprising fascination with everything oil-related in these recent months, it seems appropriate to get the Texas issue out of the way first.
The concern that potential longs may have is rather straightforward - O'Reilly has 639 stores in Texas as of December 31, 2015. These 639 stores account for ~14% of the total store count - the Company's largest single-state exposure. Given the oil price depression, negative commentary from oil majors, and general market sentiment, market participants are clearly frightened about Texas.
The theory is that the depression in black gold would lead to increasing unemployment in the state. And if unemployment heads north, people are unlikely to drive their vehicles that much - after all, driving to work is probably the most common activity which requires the use of a car. With less driving, miles driven would experience a slowdown and vehicles would not wear and tear as much, decreasing the demand for aftermarket auto parts - i.e. O'Reilly's bread-and-butter.
However, this theory makes the assumption that Texas is all about energy. This may be true in the 1980s, but it is certainly not true in 2016. While many energy companies may have a presence in the state, there are other industries that are also situated here. Moreover, only a small percentage of them are downstream oil businesses, which are certainly not immediately affected by the oil price depression; Exxon's refining business is possibly the lone bright spot amongst its operating segments in recent quarters.
As seen on page 2 of this trade publication, extraction of oil and natural gases contribute to ~3% of Texas employment, while petroleum refineries contribute to ~2.6%. The bottom line is that Texas unemployment may see some pressure, but it is unlikely to be as striking as market participants seem to think it is. As evidence, although Texas unemployment has edged higher, it is not as bad as compared to the 2008 crisis and appears to be recovering, as seen below. Certainly nothing to go crazy about.
Source: St Louis Fed
Stated simply, there is a bear case to be made for O'Reilly, but Texas deterioration is certainly not central to that thesis. Despite generally negative sentiment for the state, said sentiment appears overblown.
New auto sales cycle is unlikely to be anywhere near its peak
Bulls point to the 5+ years of recovery in new auto sales and suggest that this is unsustainable and that the cycle has to peak in the near future. If the cycle peaks and new auto sales slow substantially, this implies that consumers would be utilizing their older vehicles, which tend to require more aftermarket maintenance. Put simply, increases in new auto sales are an inverse indicator of ORLY's business. The following chart drawn up by the Wall Street Journal certainly supports the assertion that the cycle might be near its peak.
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Source: Wall Street Journal
However, that thesis neglects to consider the effects of the 2008 crisis. The financial crisis led to consumers having to hold off new/replacement car purchases for obvious reasons, leading to a build-up in demand.
SAAR Annual pent-up demand Assuming 15m replacement rate 2008 13.2 1.8 2009 10.4 4.6 2010 11.5 3.5 2011 12.7 2.3 2012 14.4 0.6 2013 15.5 -0.5 2014 16.4 -1.4 2015 17.3 -2.3 Cumulative pent-up demand 8.6 Click to enlarge
Source: FRED, author's calculations
By my math, cumulative pent-up demand was ~12.8m vehicles at the end of 2012, assuming an annual replacement rate of 15m units. Since 2012, new auto sales have picked up drastically and have fulfilled a portion of pent-up demand. However, ~8.6m units in pent-up demand still remains.
While some may argue that consumers may simply be choosing not to own a car, this argument holds no water, in my view. In the U.S., vehicle ownership is more of a necessity - consumers need a car to drive to work, and so on. While there are substitutes to owning a car in the U.S., the subsitutes are insufficient to serve the needs of the consumer, as I explain below.
If we were talking about my homeland, Singapore, it would be a very different story. Singapore is a very small country and it has one of the best public transportation systems in the world. In my country, owning a car is simply not required (though most of my peers who are in their early 20s are looking to own a car as a status symbol, in stark contrast to me) as the public transportation system (trains & buses) covers the near-entirety of the country.
The same cannot be said for the U.S. Therefore, absent some fairly dramatic changes in infrastructure (i.e. an affordable, reliable public transportation system covering the entirety of the U.S.), American consumers will always need cars, in my view.
The gist of my rough analysis on pent-up demand is simple - it means that new auto sales could possibly continue growing towards 17m-18m in 2017/2018 as the pent-up demand is worked through before retiring by a small clip to the long-term average. If we are more upbeat and assume a 16m replacement rate, the current pent-up demand would be just south of 17m, signifying that SAAR could hover around 18-19m for a couple of years.
Essentially, while headline numbers may lead you to conclude that we new auto sales may be potentially peaking, this is unlikely to be true. Further analysis suggests that the current SAAR does not appear to be at a hugely worrying point of the cycle. Low oil may also be helping prolong the cycle by freeing up a substantial portion of consumer budgets.
Investors should not mistake the strong recovery in new auto sales as the reason for the robust performance of ORLY's shares, thinking that there is a direct relationship between the two, as this could not be further from the truth. As I explore in a subsequent section, new auto sales is an inverse indicator of ORLY's business, and the larger driver of the Company's business is the substantial acceleration in average vehicle age.
Finally, while some may point to a potential increase in interest rates, rate increases look to be increasingly unlikely this year - if Yellen's comments are any indicator; the Fed Chair appears to have been halted by the weak non-U.S. economies. Also, rates are at multi-decade lows, implying that even if rates go up 25bps or 50bps, it is not like an increase would make vehicles unaffordable.
Increasing average vehicle age is misleading on the surface and actually signals a slowdown
The next point that bulls would raise in argument would be the increasing average vehicle age. By all accounts, average vehicle age is at all-time highs - currently the metric is at ~11.5 years. Longs contend that with the metric at its highs, aftermarket growth is pretty well-supported. After all, older cars generally experience more wear and tear compared to newer ones and would thus require more frequent maintenance.
Now, I am not disputing the above thesis; arguing against that would result in me trying to argue that the laws of physics do not apply. In my view, market participants should focus on the nuances of the metric instead, as it actually signals a slowdown in the aftermarket.
Average Age of Light Vehicles in Operation in the United States Year All Light Vehicles Y/Y % increase 2007 10.0 2008 10.1 1.0% 2009 10.3 2.0% 2010 10.6 2.9% 2011 10.9 2.8% 2012 11.2 2.8% 2013 11.4 1.8% 2014 11.4 0.0% 2015 11.5 0.9% Click to enlarge
Source: Bureau of Transportation (2007-2014 data), IHS Automotive (2015 data), author's calculations
As seen above, the average age of light vehicles have seen substantial acceleration in the years following the financial crisis. This acceleration was driven by a slowdown in new auto sales; lesser new auto sales brings the average age up. However, the acceleration has slowed substantially since the economy recovered, as new auto sales begun rising strongly. Average vehicle age is likely to continue to slow or even decrease as new auto sales remain strong, as discussed above.
To make matters worse, a slowdown in average vehicle age is not the entire story. While difficult to quantify, I submit that I am not alone in concluding that technology has substantially improved the quality of new cars, thus allowing said cars to last longer and require less aftermarket maintenance. Essentially, a car developed in 2010 is unlikely to require the same amount of maintenance as one developed in 2000, assuming the same vehicle age. Thus, future growth in average vehicle age might not directly translate to growth in aftermarket auto parts.
Moreover, the data for average vehicle age does not differentiate between vehicles that are actively in use (and thus its owners would be required to maintain it and replace parts when they wear out) and vehicles that are not actively in use. Once again, it is difficult to conclude just how large this number (inactive cars) is, given that the data tracked by the government and IHS do not have visibility to that extent.
Finally, channel checks also suggest that new car sales will continue to rise in the near-term. Specifically, CarMax reported slowing overall used car sales growth (from high single-digits to low single-digits) in its fiscal 3Q '16 results. Comparable-stores used car sales experienced a ~1% decline. Inventories had also increased ~10% y/y. These numbers sent the stock down ~6% on the day of the press release.
Note that CarMax has a policy of allowing consumers to sell them their used cars without requiring a simultaneous purchase. These metrics suggest two things - 1) demand for used cars is slowing and 2) more consumers are trading in their used cars, presumably to purchase a newer vehicle - both of which support continued strength in new car sales.
The case for long-term pricing pressure
Within the Company's professional segment, ORLY has historically sold to a rather fragmented base of customers which mainly comprised of independent body-shops. This allowed the Company to easily pass on price increases due to a rise in commodity costs as negotiating leverage is tipped in its favor.
However, multi-shop operators ("MSOs") have been experiencing rapid consolidation in recent years. ORLY does not, to the best of my knowledge, offer a breakdown of customer categories, making it impossible to judge what percentage of its revenues are derived from MSOs. Therefore, I will be using Axalta's (NYSE:AXTA) U.S. refinish business - which has #1 market share in the country - as a proxy to portray this trend.
Click to enlarge
Source: Axalta's December 4 Investor Day
As seen above, MSOs made up ~14% of the U.S. refinish market In 2006 and has grown to ~24% in 2013. AXTA's management expects this figure to hit ~45% by 2017. The rationale for consolidation in MSOs is largely predicated on realizing economies of scale through a denser network which reduces procurement costs per unit (through volume discounts) and increases savings on inbound logistics, thus the trend is likely secular in nature.
In my view, MSO consolidation could result in pricing pressure for the Company's professional segment. I note that Axalta's light vehicle segment which supplies coatings to auto OEMs, has decent, but not great pricing power due to OEM push-back. Further, coatings are generally <5% of MSO costs. Aftermarket parts which ORLY supplies are likely to comprise of a greater proportion of the MSO cost structure and hence would probably be a prime target for MSOs to negotiate better pricing.
Potential mitigants to slowdown in the near-term does not seem sufficient
To be fair, ORLY does have several levers to pull to offset a potential slowdown. The very first of these levers would be new store growth. The Company opened 205 net new stores in 2015 and is looking for this number to hit 210 in 2016. However, continued new store openings is unlikely to boost top-line growth by much for a few reasons.
One, ORLY is already in well-penetrated in 44 states, suggesting that most of the low-hanging fruit has been plucked already. Sure, the Company could expand to a new state, but it would take time for stores to ramp up and for scale efficiencies (distribution, logistics, marketing, etc) to be realized in the new state. Two, the potential for a near-term slowdown would prolong the time taken for new stores to reach maturity. Three, management might re-focus their attention on the comp store base in the event of a decline in comps, pushing new store openings to later years.
Share repurchases could help, but at the current authorization it would barely move the needle. The Company currently has a $6.25b (cumulatively) share repurchase program outstanding, of which ~$5.56b has already been spent, leaving ~$700m. At current prices, this would only be sufficient to retire ~2.5m shares, or ~2.4% of the float. While the Company is likely to further increase authorization of the share buyback program - it increased the program by $500m each in February and May of 2015, and $750m in February 2016 - its cash balance has decreased to ~$100m, suggesting that any increase in authorization would funded out of free cash flow.
Free cash flow is clocking in at ~$800m per annum, so current cash-flow generation capacity is sufficient to fund the latest increase in the buyback authorization. Any incremental buyback authorization would likely have to be given the green light next year, or have to be funded with borrowings. Net debt/EBITDA is currently at ~0.9x, suggesting substantial borrowing capacity. However, management has historically kept debt at minimal levels, almost never going past 1x net debt/EBITDA - which seems fair given the cyclicality of the business. Moreover, the logic of funding a buyback at ~3% free cash flow yields with debt at rates in excess of 5% is questionable at best.
What about inorganic growth? This seems quite unlikely to move the needle by much. The Company operates in a largely fragmented industry - most players are very small and would do little to add to ORLY's top- and bottom-lines. An acquisition of a huge player such as Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) and AutoZone (NYSE:AZO) seems dubious as the high valuation multiples ascribed to these peers would make the economics of an acquisition difficult to reconcile.
Conclusion
While ORLY has been an absolutely slam-dunk investment so far, I am skeptical as to whether this would continue. Longs seem to be assuming that the tailwinds which drove the Company's top-line (subdued new auto sales, substantial acceleration in average vehicle age, etc) for many years are still as strong as ever, while in actuality they are waning, at least in the near-term. Long-term pricing pressure in the professional segment seems likely, given the trend of MSO consolidation. Potential mitigants to a possible slowdown are available, but they simply do not have the capacity to offset a downtrend by much.
As a result, bulls should consider trimming or exiting their position in ORLY given the potential for near-term weakness, unless they have a time horizon that is measured in the decades. While the catalyst for a short is pretty clear - y/y comp weakness and margin pressure - the right timing is difficult to ascertain. After all, getting the thesis right is worthless if you get the timing wrong as a short-seller. Hence, shorting is inadvisable here, in my view.
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NASCAR team owner Rick Hendrick said Sunday morning that last week’s much-publicized mid-race crew swap between the 24 and 48 teams was no big deal within Hendrick Motorsports.
Last week at Texas Motor Speedway, Jeff Gordon crashed out of the AAA Texas 500, while teammate Jimmie Johnson had a series of disastrous pit stops that likely cost him the race and possibly his fifth consecutive championship. Once Gordon was out of the race, his entire seven-man over-the-wall crew moved over to service Johnson’s car for the balance of the race. The crew swap will remain in place today at Phoenix International Raceway and next Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Team owner Hendrick said Sunday that it was not as significant a change as some believed.
“They all train together, they’re all in the same building,” Hendrick said of the two pit crews. “Everything they do, they do together, and we swap guys around at the shop, in friendly competition. It’s just one team. They’re all bonused together, they know, for either car. It doesn’t make any difference.”
Hendrick said internally, the switch had the backing of both crew chiefs — Chad Knaus for Johnson and Steve Letarte for Gordon. “That cause, Chad, Stevie and I supported. I think it was a good deal. I think the guys on the (No. 48) team had done well, but they were rattled. ... Honestly, to us, it’s not that big a deal.”
That said, Hendrick did address both teams earlier this week.
“It’s one team, with all these guys working on both cars,” Hendrick said. “So I wanted to make sure they knew I was proud of them and, ‘Hey, don’t let the pressure get to you.’ I told them the job I would least like to have is going over the wall. The second job I wouldn’t like to have is crew chief. The third job I wouldn’t want to have is the spotter.”
Tom Jensen is the Editor in Chief of SPEED.com, Senior NASCAR Editor at RACER and a contributing Editor for TruckSeries.com. You can follow him online at twitter.com/tomjensen100 and e-mail him at Jensen is the author of “Cheating: The Bad Things Good NASCAR Nextel Cup Racers Do In Pursuit of Speed,” and has appeared on numerous television and radio shows. Jensen is the past President of the National Motorsports Press Association and an NMPA Writer of the Year.
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This is a partial transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," January 2, 2007, that has been edited for clarity.
Watch "The O'Reilly Factor" weeknights at 8 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET and listen to the "Radio Factor!"
BILL O'REILLY, HOST: "Personal story" segment tonight, there are some conservative judges in America. There are some, even though the liberal ones get most of the attention.
And now, one Missouri judge has written a book called "The Tyranny of Tolerance: A Sitting Judge Breaks the Code of Silence to Expose the Liberal Judicial Assault."
Well, that isn't going down real well with some liberals. And with us now, the author of the book, Judge Robert Dierker.
What is the headline of the book?
ROBERT DIERKER, JR., CIRCUIT COURT JUDGE: I think the twin themes of the book fundamentally are there is an agenda that is best described on the liberal side. You can use any number of terms. And I think you use secular progressives.
O'REILLY: Right.
DIERKER: But you have an agenda that is consciously and deliberately using the judiciary to promote itself and to suppress opposing viewpoints. And.
O'REILLY: Is this new?
DIERKER: I don't know that it's new. I think what is new is the increasing tendency of the courts to be called in to suppress the dissent. The publication of this book has drawn attacks to seek to remove me from office.
O'REILLY: Right. They don't like the fact — they say that you're now prejudicial toward any liberal cause that comes in.
But what I'm trying to get at is this. We talk a lot about liberal activism on the bench here. Is there conservative activism? We saw in the Ten Commandments down in Alabama where the chief justice of Alabama said, "Look, I'm going to defy federal law and I'm going to keep the Ten Commandments up. That was conservative activism.
But is there more liberal activism than conservative activism?
DIERKER: I think activism, almost by definition, goes on the liberal side. The conservatives to the extent that they react in an effort to limit or overrule illegitimate precedent are simply restoring the Constitution to where it was before it was rewritten by judges who feel that the text has no meaning and is subject to reinterpretation, rewriting, you know, at the moment.
O'REILLY: Missouri is a swing state. You know, it's not a conservative or a liberal state. Usually votes Republican. Would there be more liberal judges sitting in Missouri than conservative judges in your opinion?
DIERKER: Well, I think the only way I can answer is that is that John Ashcroft appointed me and then he left office in '92. Until Matt Blount was elected we had Democratic governors.
But I don't see it as a Democrat/Republican thing. In terms of more liberal judges in Missouri. I think to answer that, you know, I don't want to go into a criticism...
O'REILLY: What I'm trying to get at here is it throughout the United States more activism on the left just because of the sheer numbers?
DIERKER: No, I don't think it's sheer numbers. I think it's the position that the liberal judges are in, the Supreme Court of the United States. This is very much a top down phenomenon. If the appellate courts are promoting a specific agenda, then those of us like me who are the foot soldiers, you know, we play by the rules.
O'REILLY: So you really believe that there is a left wing agenda being promoted by the judiciary in this country?
DIERKER: Well, I think that it's being promoted through the judiciary and with, certainly if not the active initiation by judges, certainly the acquiescence and...
O'REILLY: They know it's happening? Any judge would know it was happening?
DIERKER: And I think its there's an endorsement in opinions that express a view that the judiciary has effectively no limits on its power, that the judiciary can impose taxes, that the judiciary can control...
O'REILLY: Gay marriage.
DIERKER: ... the conduct of the war, that the judiciary can dictate to the legislative body, you know, what marriage will be. You know, I think those things are going on. I think it's a philosophy that has permeated the judiciary to a degree that is very alarming.
O'REILLY: It is alarming, I think. Because once you take it from the folks and put it in to guys like you, even though you're a conservative judge, but judges themselves, and they start to make the laws, that's not the way it was set up.
DIERKER: Well that's not. And I think that — you talked about conservative activism. But, again, you know, I think that the belief that the Constitution has a meaning and that that meaning has to endure and control over generations is a very important one.
Because if you don't have that, if you don't have that dedication to that principal, then you don't have just judicial independence. You have judicial emporium. You have the judiciary...
O'REILLY: They run the country.
DIERKER: ... running the country.
O'REILLY: Not the folks through their elected officials.
All right, judge, good luck with the book. Very interesting. And we appreciate you coming on and talking about it with us tonight.
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An Alabama judge who once wore the Ten Commandments embroidered on his robe has been accused of violating judicial ethics for ordering a group in his courtroom to hold hands and pray.
The American Civil Liberties Union filed a complaint with the Judicial Inquiry Commission against Covington County Circuit Judge Ashley McKathan of Andalusia, said Olivia Turner, executive director of the ACLU of Alabama. The complaint said McKathan violated ethics rules and the U.S. Constitution by ordering the group to pray.
Four years ago, McKathan donned the Ten Commandments robe, he said, to publicly acknowledge his belief that the law is based on more than just words written in law books.
The ACLU complaint said McKathan dropped to his knees and prayed aloud during a court hearing in February. He told the 100 people in the courtroom that he was not afraid to call on the name of Jesus Christ, witnesses said, and ordered all to join hands and pray, according to the complaint filed soon after the hearing.
The hearing was for a case in which the pastor and several deacons of Morning Star Missionary Baptist Church in Monroeville sued the church's former secretary to gain possession of financial records.
In response to the complaint, McKathan told the Mobile Press-Register for a story Thursday: "Whatever comes of all that, I'll continue to have peace." Quoting Romans in the King James version of the Bible, the judge added: "And we know that all things work together for good to them that love God, to them that are called according to his purpose."
McKathan did not immediately return a call from The Associated Press Thursday.
The complaint was filed on behalf of several Monroeville residents, including some church members.
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The death toll from a suspected bomb explosion on a bus in the southern Philippines rose to at least 10 with another 34 people wounded, officials said Wednesday.
The Rural Transit bus had picked up passengers, mostly students, and was passing near the main gate of Central Mindanao University in Maramag town in Bukidnon province on Tuesday night when the powerful blast sent shrapnel and debris flying through the vehicle, town safety officer Alejandro Navarro said.
The blast killed 10 passengers and wounded 34 others, many of them seriously, police said.
The suspected explosive, probably a mortar round concealed in a bag, went off in an overheard rack, and many passengers who were standing in the overcrowded bus were wounded in the head, Navarro said.
Investigators were trying to determine the type of blast and were searching for other possible explosives at the site in Maramag, about 535 miles southeast of Manila, police officer Rufina Bayarcal said.
Ralph Quilla, a 17-year-old student who was riding on the bus, said by cellphone that the explosion occurred at the back of the vehicle and wounded him in the arm.
"There was a loud explosion that filled the bus with smoke," Quilla said from a hospital where he and other victims were taken for treatment. "I saw bloodied people and jumped out of a window."
Muslim rebels and extortion gangs have been blamed for past bombings on buses in the country's restive south.
The attacks have continued despite a state of high alert for military and police forces in the south because of sporadic bombings and other attacks by hard-line Muslim insurgents opposed to a new autonomy deal between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the largest Muslim rebel group in the country.
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Long before he aspired to be in Congress, Democrat Pete Aguilar’s dream was to be like his father who worked for the local utility.
“My mother tells the story that she made me a little uniform just like his and I think she has baby books that she shows ...He worked for the local gas company for 37 years,” Aguilar said.
But he didn't fill his father's shoes. Instead, at age 26 he set his own path and became the youngest city council member in the California city of Redlands’ 126-year history when five council members, Democrat and Republican, picked him out of 11 candidates to fill an open seat. He was elected to the seat a year later, his first election. Then his colleagues appointed him mayor in 2010 and again in 2012.
Today Aguilar’s going after another vacancy, the U.S. House seat for California’s 31st Congressional District. The incumbent, Republican Rep. Gary Miller was in for a bruising race as the Democrats' No. 1 target. He chose to retire. Aguilar, a Democrat, and his opponent Republican Paul Chabot will face off in November.
Aguilar's story conjures images of former San Antonio mayor and now Housing Secretary Julian Castro. Castro also was 26 when he was elected to San Antonio's city council, and made city history as the youngest council member. Aguilar said he's interacted more with Castro's twin brother, Rep. Joaquín Castro, D-Texas, who has publicly supported him and headlined an event for him with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
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With Aguilar achieving such quick success, it would be easy to assume he was the geeky, high achiever as a youth.
But Aguilar, 35, calls his older brother the “braniac” of the family’s two children. His mother would consider him the more likely to get in trouble and talk his way out of it, he said. His wife, whom he’s known since high school, was the smarter, more mature one in college, he said, and he describes himself as a late bloomer.
“I was just a little cautious, insecure. I didn’t want to mess things up. I definitely found my footing later,” Aguilar said.
The late-arriving confidence hasn’t always carried him to his goal. Aguilar also ran for Congress in 2012, but lost in the open primary.
President Barack Obama won 57 percent of the district's vote in the 2012 elections. It is considered the most Democratic district held by a Republican.
Aguilar’s challenge, like others across the country, will be to rev up the Latino vote - about 44 percent of eligible voters in the district - and still hang on to his crossover appeal that helped him become a council member.
Aguilar worked after college for former California Gov. Gray Davis in Riverside, when the area was still "pretty red," he said. "I'd have to go into a room and there likely weren't many supporters and I'd have to articulate the governor's position," Aguilar said. The experience taught him to be a good listener, to understand other viewpoints and find a solution, he said.
As is the case for many Mexican-Americans in the Southwest, Aguilar’s roots in California trace back to at least his great grandparents. Like so many other Latinos with deep roots in the U.S., he’s fuzzy on the family history, which he is still digging out. He knows the family went from Mexico to Kingman, California, through the railroad industry.
He is learning Spanish and is trying to raise his children to be bilingual. Speaking Spanish had segregated his parents, he said. “My parents and grandparents worked hard to teach us our culture and heritage, but they specifically kept us from learning Spanish. It’s a decision they’d probably like to have back now,” he said.
But he said he’s not that different from many Latinos in the district and region, many who have been in the area for many generations.
Republican Paul Chabot, who got the most votes in the primary, thinks the long history of Latinos in the area will work more for him than for Aguilar. “The Latino population here in the Inland Empire, although it is next to Los Angeles, they are worlds apart. Latinos here are Democrats, but they are moderate, Blue Dog, pro family and pro life,” he said.
Chabot, 40, is a military veteran and has worked for years as a deputy reserve sheriff in the area. He said his position on securing the border resonates more with the area’s Latinos.
“I was born colorblind and raised colorblind and I don’t see the controversy of race ever becoming an issue in our area,” said Chabot, who was not the establishment GOP favorite, but has since begun to get national party support.
Among Chabot's main campaign issues are reforming Obamacare - which he has said hurts businesses and families - as well as cutting taxes and reforming schools and the military while running on a "leaner budget," as he states in his campaign's website.
The district is in an area known as the Inland Empire, which leads the nation’s 25 largest metropolitan areas in poverty. The city of San Bernardino, with a population of about 2 million that is 51 percent Latino, has the nation’s second highest poverty rate behind Detroit.
Aguilar has promoted building infrastructure to attract jobs, increasing Title I funding for the local schools and making more college grant money available through the federal Pell grant program.
“The city of San Bernardino is really why I’m doing this,” said Aguilar. “Times are tough and we need advocates who can work to bring investments to our community."
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Previewing next week’s “Super Tuesday” contests
Today brings us two more states holding primaries -- Nebraska and West Virginia -- and we’ll have more on them below. But one week from now come the May 20 primaries, maybe the closest thing to a “Super Tuesday” that we’ll see before Election Day 2014. Six states will vote on that day (Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania), and they represent all the various national storylines this election season.
Battle for Senate control: Arkansas showcases the battle for Senate control, in which Republicans need to pick up a net six seats to win control of the chamber. (Neither Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor nor Republican Tom Cotton has a primary race, though, so this race is already in general-election mode.)
Fed up with Washington: Kentucky shines the spotlight on voters’ frustrations with Congress, given Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s re-election bid. In some ways, he may be the national poster child for the “anger at dysfunctional Washington” narrative.
Establishment vs. Tea Party: Georgia’s Senate GOP primary, Idaho’s congressional primary (ID-2), and McConnell’s primary against Matt Bevin show the establishment-vs.-Tea Party battle inside the Republican Party. It’s a battle that, so far, appears to be going the establishment’s way.
The unpopular governors: Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race highlights some of the unpopular governors running for re-election. (The action next week will be on the Democratic side for the right to challenge vulnerable incumbent Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. By the way, a surprising candidate is surging in that race, Tom Wolf -- no, not THAT Tom Wolfe.)
Good, bad, and ugly with the health-care law: Kentucky and Oregon show us the good and bad with the health-care law (Kentucky’s implementation has gone well, Oregon’s not so much).
The Dem’s reliance on female candidates: Michelle Nunn in Georgia and Alison Grimes in Kentucky spotlight the Democrats’ reliance on women candidates (and of course, women supporters) to counter tough political headwinds.
The dynastic candidates: And Nunn, Grimes, Jason Carter in Georgia, and Mark Pryor in Arkansas represent many of the legacy/dynastic candidates who are running this election cycle.
Uncompetitive in Nebraska and West Virginia
Turning to today’s primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia, the political world (including us) isn’t as fixated on them as next week’s Super Tuesday contests. Why? Because they’re not going to tell us much about the fall -- Republicans are a cinch to win Nebraska’s Senate and gubernatorial contests, and the GOP holds the clear advantage in West Virginia’s Senate race. But it wasn’t always like this. According to our handy 2000 Almanac of American Politics, five of the six U.S. senators from Nebraska, South Dakota, and West Virginia (all three states have Senate contests this year) were Democrats. (Chuck Hagel, now serving as Barack Obama’s Defense secretary was the lone GOP exception.) But come 2015, Democrats might have only one U.S. senator from those three states (West Virginia’s Joe Manchin). That’s a pretty significant change. And it comes when the Democratic focus on economic populism should be a winner in all three states, particularly West Virginia. What these three states highlight, though, is how culturally out of touch the Democratic Party has allowed itself to become in these states. Nationally, Democrats have been able to balance their losses in the prairie states and economic populist states (like Arkansas and West Virginia) by locking down the coasts and making MAJOR inroads in the Mid-Atlantic. Still, Democrats should still do a little soul-searching to figure out how to reconnect in these more rural states that are actually more populist and pro-government than the Washington and New York media world stereotypes them.
Previewing Nebraska’s primaries
The top contest to watch tonight is the GOP Senate primary in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Mike Johanns (R-NE). It’s become a three-man contest featuring Midland University President Ben Sasse (who’s a favorite of conservative groups), former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, and banker Sid Dinsdale. Meanwhile, Nebraska GOP voters also will be picking a Republican nominee to be their next governor, succeeding term-limited Gov. Dave Heineman (R). That race is led by businessman Pete Ricketts and Attorney General Jon Bruning, and it has attracted big outside money and some high-profile endorsements, particularly for Ricketts, whose father is a well-known billionaire donor to GOP causes (and owner of the Chicago Cubs). Ted Cruz, Paul Ryan and Scott Walker -- among others -- have backed him, while Bruning got some last-minute juice after an endorsement by Heineman. Ads in this contest have been particularly bruising too. “This has just been a really, really negative primary with lots of outside spending,” says Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report. “It’s really the first taste we’ve had of outside groups playing hard in a governor’s race.”
Previewing West Virginia’s primaries
Voters also head to the polls today in West Virginia. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant is expected to win the Democratic nod to face Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in the fall race for the Senate. But there’s more suspense in crowded congressional primary to replace Capito -- the three top contenders vying for the GOP nomination are former U.S. International Trade Commissioner Charlotte Lane, pharmacist Ken Reed and former Maryland GOP state chairman Alex Mooney. Mooney, who’s also got the backing of outside groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund, has outspent the rest of the field, spending over $400,000 with three weeks to go in the race. But opponents have tried to brand the recent West Virginia transplant as a carpetbagger. Former state Democratic Party chairman Nick Casey is the favorite for the Democratic nomination for the seat. Oh, and a point to make about Capito: Don’t lose sight of the fact that she avoided a true Tea Party primary. Being a pro-government Republican is the way for the GOP to win in West Virginia and so far, she’s walked that line successfully.
Throwing the kitchen sink at Hillary
Over the last few months, Republicans have used Benghazi and the Russia-Ukraine tensions to whack potential (but not certain) presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. They’ve also resurrected the Lewinsky scandal from 16 years ago. And now comes this news via the New York Post: Karl Rove is alleging Hillary has brain damage. From the article: “Karl Rove stunned a conference when he suggested Hillary Clinton might have brain damage. Onstage with Robert Gibbs and CBS correspondent and ‘Spies Against Armageddon’ co-author Dan Raviv, Rove said Republicans should keep the Benghazi issue alive. He said if Clinton runs for president, voters must be told what happened when she suffered a fall in December 2012. The official diagnosis was a blood clot. Rove told the conference near LA Thursday, ‘Thirty days in the hospital? And when she reappears, she’s wearing glasses that are only for people who have traumatic brain injury? We need to know what’s up with that.’” A Clinton spokesman responded, “Please assure Dr. Rove she’s 100%.” Medical records are a legitimate ask for every presidential candidate. But having Karl Rove, of all people, raise this topic -- a year before the presidential contest begins -- only politicizes it and gives her a political shield to duck this issue right away. And ask yourself this: What does it say about how Republicans feel about their ’16 chances that they’re ALREADY throwing the kitchen sink at Hillary?
A lame duck?
“House Speaker John Boehner says that if he has his way, he'll still be speaker of the House one year from today,” NBC’s Frank Thorp reported yesterday. “‘I'm running for reelection, I expect to be speaker,’ Boehner, R-Ohio, told Texas Tribune CEO and Editor-in-Chief Evan Smith during an interview in San Antonio. But asked if he would serve the full two years if he were to win a 13th term in November, Boehner would not commit. ‘Listen, I can't predict what's going to happen,’ Boehner said. ‘I'm going to be 65 years old in November, I never thought I'd live to be 60, so I'm living on borrowed time.’” Those comments will only fuel speculation that Boehner might not be speaker, or serve in Congress, beyond 2015 or 2016. Does he try and walk this back a tad simply to make sure he isn’t treated like a lame duck?
Clay Aiken’s challenger passes away
Finally, here’s yesterday’s news out of North Carolina: “Keith Crisco, the Democratic candidate locked in a too-close-to-call election for a North Carolina House seat against former “American Idol” contestant Clay Aiken, died suddenly on Monday,” NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell confirmed. More from the News & Observer: "Brad Crone, a political strategist and friend of Crisco’s for nearly three decades, said the two had talked on the phone earlier Monday to finalize plans to announce that he would concede. He had planned to call Aiken to congratulate him. Crone had already notified Aiken’s campaign staff of the plans."
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I manifestly dislike trendy jargon in all of it’s manifestations. Especially in politics.
For example, some years ago, suddenly it became all the rage to refer to public spending reductions as “taking a hair-cut“. Everybody from Chris Dodd to the detestable Dame Pelosi were talking about “hair-cuts”. I started to feel like I was in some vast federal Barber Shop. Of course, who can forget Barack Obama’s Tourettes-like non-stop parroting of “a balanced approach“. Soon, everyone was talking about “balanced approaches”.
Now, where I come from, an “approach” can mean everything from an “8-iron shot” to a “drive-way” to “walking slowly”. Likewise, “balanced” can mean everything from “this side equaling that” to “being sane”. Of course, Barack Obama was speaking about none of this when he was prattling on about Balanced Approaches, and everyone knew it; he was speaking in chic, up-to-minute political jargonese for “tax increases”. No matter, –anybody who was anybody was suddenly referring to “tax increases” as “a balanced approach“.
“Fighting for Working Families” is another hit on the Hot 100 List of unctuous political jargon. It really means “iron-fisted union control“. “Reproductive rights” means “the ability to kill your offspring”.
One must be careful not to use political jargon after it’s Sell-By Date. Nothing is so passe and transitory as Trendy Political Jargon: When was the last time, for example, that anyone sought to “woo the Perot Voter“? And yet, this exact term was uttered dozens of times during the Presidential Debates in 1992.
Political Jargon is a lazy way of communicating in a weird, hip-hoppy shorthand to provoke a visceral response amongst the In-Crowd. To use a bit of, well —jargonese— Political Jargon is a “dog-whistle”. It is supposed to be a substitute for critical analysis and thoughtfulness. Barack Obama is masterful in his use of Political Jargon. And, with good reason: It at once makes him sound intelligent and chic all at the same time, when he is, in fact, neither.
But, no matter. It is a weapon conservatives can weild against the authoritarian left with deadly effect, if it chooses to deploy it.
When the C-PAC was meeting for only the fourth time in the bitter snows of early 1977, Ronald Reagan spoke to them of a “New Republican Party”. The term “New Republican Party” thus entered the vernacular, and it became an effective tool for him to describe what he sought to do in only three words: Keep the muscle, the sinew and bone of the existing Party, but reshape the party into a new, fighting force for the American people.
Hence a “New Republican Party“.
It resonated very effectively. I offer another verbal short-cut to communicate in a similar fashion. Some savvy Republican operators would be wise to start referring to “Republican: The American Citizen’s Party“. Given the recent public revulsion to the term “Republican”, it might be wise to drop the “Republican” entirely at whiles, and refer simply to “Our American Citizen’s Party”.
“Republicanism” seems to conjure images of country-club locker-rooms, and badly-coiffed student organizations that meet in the community rooms of the Comfort Inn and Suites. “Republican” has been so befogged by the political maestros that the name is now a mish-mash in the public mind: A faceless political bureaucracy that stand for everything — and nothing, at the same time.
In this simple word path-way –the American Citizens Party–, we are saying: We stand for the average Citizen. Not only that, we highly esteem “citizenship” and guard against any assault on the bedrock American principle of citizenship. We are the political home for the Average Joe, the Average Citizen. Citizenship has deep roots in American antiquity, and we cherish these roots. We are not part of a collective, but are a gathering of Citizens that adore our American Heritage, our cultural traditions.
We must stop communicating in the short-hand jargon-laden gibberish of the Left, and start adopting our own vernacular. Words are very powerful. One of the first things Winston Churchill (one of the greatest wordsmiths of the twentieth century) did when he became Prime Minister was change the name of the Domestic Defence Bureau to the Home Guard. Let’s take a page from Winston’s book:
Republican: The American Citizen’s Party.
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"The Artist" began what is sure to be an amazing weekend for the silent black and white movie by picking up six trophies at the Cesar Awards in France on Friday.
The Oscar favorite claimed the Best French Film of the Year, while moviemaker Michel Hazanavicius was honored with the night's Best Director prize.
His wife Berenice Bejo was named Best Actress for her role as Peppy Miller in the film, but co-star Jean Dujardin lost the Best Actor honor to Untouchable's Omar Sy.
Going into Sunday's Oscars, "The Artist" has picked up more than 70 accolades around the world to become the most awarded French film in history, according to The Hollywood Reporter.
Composer Ludovic Bource was also honored at the Cesars for his "The Artist" score and the film's cinematographer Guillame Schiffman was also a winner.
Others taking home trophies on Friday included Nadira Ayadi and Clotilde Hesme, who shared the prize for Most Promising Actress, Gregory Gadebois, who was named Most Promising Actor and Michel Blanc (Best Supporting Actor).
Tous au Larzac took home the night's Best Documentary prize, while Asghar Farhadi's Iranian film "A Separation" was named Best Foreign Film.
British actress Kate Winslet also came away a big winner after she was presented with an Honorary Cesar for her body of work by filmmaker Michel Gondry, who stepped in for her absent "Carnage" director Roman Polanski.
Winslet addressed the crowd in French, gushing, "You could have given it (award) to somebody else but you gave it to me, so thank you."
Winslet returned to the stage a little later to accept Polanski's Best Adapted Screenplay award for Carnage.
The 37th annual ceremony was held at the Chatelet Theater in Paris.
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Sex and the City 2 seems like it would be reliable enough. It’s the sequel to a movie based on a TV show, so the format is pretty well established. Co-star Willie Garson, who plays Stanford Blatch, gave it an intriguing twist when he described the new adventure of Carrie Bradshaw.
“I think it’s like a wartime comedy,” Garson said. “It’s like a Bing Crosby/Bob Hope road comedy and I think people will really respond to it. I know the fans will love it. I hope that we bring in some more. Who knows?”
The first Sex and the City movie gave all the series regulars an equal part, and the supporting guys had their scenes to shine. Garson said he has a bigger part in the sequel.
“Much bigger. It’s very equitable. The world is about the girls and then the guys each have their thing. A big centerpiece of the movie just happens to be me but it’s just by chance.”
By now, Sex and the City 2 seems like a sure thing. Garson assured the fans that nobody involved takes it for granted. “We are never egotistical enough to think [it’s a blockbuster]. It will be what it will be. We make it for the fans. We made the last one for the fans and they really surprised us. So we have no expectations ever. I think this one is really fun.”
Sex and the City 2 opens May 27.
'Sex And The City 2' Filming At Bergdorf Goodman In New York
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The vampires from Twilight overpowered the magical Harry Potter kids at the MTV Movie Awards in Los Angeles on Sunday night, taking home five golden popcorn prizes to their film franchise rival cast's one.
It was a shocking night for the Twilighters in more ways than one - Robert Pattinson stunned the audience and TV viewers on the east coast of the U.S. when he uttered the 'F' word while paying tribute to his Water For Elephants co-star Reese Witherspoon, the MTV Generation Award recipient.
Pattinson scored the Best Male Performance award and shared the Best Fight and Best Kiss honors for the Twilight sequel, while Kristen Stewart took home the Best Female Performance.
The film also picked up the Best Movie honor ahead of Potter's Deathly Hallows, and the cast took to the stage to introduce an exclusive clip of their upcoming film The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1.
The sole winner for Team Potter was young Brit Tom Felton, who picked up the Best Villain prize for his portrayal of Draco Malfoy.
The Twilight cast members weren't the night's only multiple winners - Chloe Moretz picked up two awards for her break-out performance as a child vigilante in Kick-Ass.
The winners list is:
MTV Generation Award - Reese Witherspoon
Best Male Performance - Robert Pattinson (The Twilight Saga: Eclipse)
Best Villain - Tom Felton (Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows)
Best Jaw-Dropping Moment - Justin Bieber (Never Say Never)
Best Breakout Star - Chloe Moretz (Kick-Ass)
Biggest Bada** Star - Chloe Moretz (Kick-Ass)
Best Fight - Robert Pattinson, Bryce Dallas Howard & Xavier Samuel (The Twilight Saga: Eclipse)
Best Kiss - Kristen Stewart & Robert Pattinson (The Twilight Saga: Eclipse)
Best Line From A Movie - "I wanna get chocolate wasted!" by Alexys Nycole Sanchez (Grown Ups)
Best Scared as S**t Performance - Ellen Page (Inception)
Best Female Performance - Kristen Stewart (The Twilight Saga: Eclipse)
Best Comedic Performance - Emma Stone (Easy A)
Best Movie - The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
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by In the news
by Joshua O’Shaughnessy
I think that arming ourselves for protection is our only hope of curbing violence… what chance do the rest of us have when our hands are empty and bullets are flying
I have always backed the 2nd amendment, as it has always made sense for me to do so. However, I have never owned a gun. I have held firm to the belief that if I feel the need to arm myself against random violence, that it is time to move to another location.
In light of this week’s tragedies, it has become quite clear that this violence can happen anywhere, as it was at our doorstep on Tuesday in a mall in our very own city. There is no place that is safe anymore.
Now, I’m NOT just gonna march out and purchase a gun in light of these events, but I have been awakened to the fact that it is better to HAVE a gun and not NEED it than to NEED a gun and not HAVE it.
Just as we, as a country have forgotten to hold our society accountable by reducing sentences in heinous acts, thus resulting in a nationwide lack of respect for authority and the judicial process, we might be able to benefit from the taking up in arms in an effort to protect ourselves. At the very least, as was the time when we used to reprimand our youth for acting out and misbehaving, we instilled a healthy sense of fear for wrongdoing.
We can benefit as a society by holding firm to our values and demanding a change in the policies of our judicial system. Until then, I think that arming ourselves for protection is our only hope of curbing violence. It may seem to be ironic, in ways, to resort to purchasing tools of violence to curb violence, but what chance do the rest of us have when our hands are empty and bullets are flying?
How much it pains me to realize that this is my truth. I have no capacity for taking human life, and yet I live in fear that my loved ones can be taken from me without notice by the hands of someone else. This week marked a tipping point in America. I remain hopeful that this will somehow lead to a change for our society as a whole.
Joshua is a Portland area dad.
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On Monday, January 13th, 2014 Goldcorp (NYSE:GG) made an unsolicited offer to acquire Osisko Mining Corporation (OSKFF). The terms of the transactions were detailed as follows:
Osisko shareholders will be entitled to receive 0.146 of a Goldcorp common share plus C$2.26 in cash for each Osisko common share. Based on Goldcorp's TSX closing share price of C$25.29 on January 10, 2014, the total consideration offered to Osisko shareholders is C$5.95 per Osisko common share representing a premium of 28% over the 20-day volume-weighted average share price of Osisko from all trading on Canadian exchanges for the period ending January 10, 2014 and a premium of 15% over Osisko's TSX closing share price on January 10, 2014.
Source: Goldcorp News Release
For the purpose of this article we will not go into the valuation of the deal or whether this is a good deal for Osisko Mining or Goldcorp shareholders - though we do feel like the valuation may be a bit low. What we want to look into here is some of the things that investors should take from this attempted acquisition that may help evaluate other miners and explorers as future potential acquisition targets.
This is very important for investors who own explorers that are potential targets by major mining companies, because understanding the attributes of Osisko Mining Corporation that make it an attractive buy for Goldcorp can help understand the attributes of their own companies that would make them attractive to other majors.
This is by no means an exhaustive list, and we would love to hear the thoughts of others in the comments on what can be learned from this transaction in regards to other future transactions.
Location and Geographic Synergies
Below is a quick view of the main exploration projects and single producing mine of Osisko Mining Corporation.
Click to enlarge
Osisko's lone producing mine is the Malartic mine in Malartic, Quebec, with its Kirkland Lake project across the border in Ontario, and its Hammond Reef project not too far from that. Goldcorp on the other hand has some of its biggest projects in Quebec and Ontario, including Red Lake (Ontario), its Cochenour project (Ontario), and Eleonore (Quebec) - a very large portion of Goldcorp's current and expected future production.
This we believe is one of the biggest reasons this transaction was attractive to Goldcorp, and as the company mentioned in its news release it "leverages Goldcorp's existing investments in Québec and Ontario with opportunity for corporate and regional synergies."
So takeaway number one is that if majors can find acquisitions in regions they already have operations (even if they already have large regional operations), then that makes the transaction much more attractive. Logically this makes sense because any acquirer has to derive some benefit over and beyond the price paid - which usually includes a hefty premium to the existing price. Other than exploring and delineating more reserves (which is far from a certainty), existing operations provide those types of synergies because human resources, governmental familiarity, and existing infrastructure can be used to cut costs in the target company. Investors should thus analyze their holdings and see if any companies fit that bill.
Size of Production and Reserves
Another observation should be the size of the acquisition, production, and reserves. This takeover is a acquisition of over $2 billion dollars and adds more than 400,000 production ounces to Goldcorp's annual gold production, more than 10 million in reserve ounces, and close to 10 million more resource ounces (over and beyond the reserve totals) - a significant addition even to a major the size of Goldcorp.
This is an important takeaway for investors because it shows that one thing that majors may be looking for based on Goldcorp's attempted acquisition, are significantly sized targets. This makes a lot of sense because many of the risks present in a small mine are the same risks present in a large mine but without the same type of reward. That means that investors should remember that if they're looking for a major to acquire their explorer, they should also understand that the majors need a large enough target to make it worth their while. This isn't a hard and fast rule because majors do buy smaller explorers, but it definitely helps.
There are a few more takeaways we will publish in our second follow-up piece to this article, but we'd love to hear from other investors concerning observations of what makes Osisko an attractive acquisition for Goldcorp - and what other explorers and miners may have similar attributes.
Disclosure: I am long GG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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I am writing this partly in response to this SA article, and partly because I think this issue seems to be misunderstood.
Ford (NYSE:F) has a total of $98BB of debt, the first time they’ve been under $100B since 2000, but why do they have so much debt? Unlike General Motors (NYSE:GM), Ford has a very profitable and large lending arm, called Ford Motor Credit Co. They basically help customers buy their cars by lending them money to do so. Virtually all big automakers have one of these money making machines, except for GM of course.
Remember GMAC? They sold it off and now own about 10% of GMAC (or now Ally as it is called). They did create their own lending arm, called GM Financial. It has assets of about $12B, and quarterly sales of $330M, compared to Ford Credit assets of $102B and quarterly sales of $2B. All of those numbers are from Q2 2011. Remember, to run these lending arms, you need money to lend out, and that comes in the form of debt and leverage.
To show these debt numbers aren’t too crazy, I'll give you an example of Toyota (NYSE:TM) and Honda (NYSE:HMC) and their debt situation. Toyota has $110B in debt and Honda has $53B in debt. Unfortunately, they only have a consolidated number on the annual report, so I can't figure out how much is attributable to their lending arm and car side.
There is another aspect of the balance sheet that needs more attention: pension plans. At the end of 2010, Ford had $18.4B in unfunded pension and benefit liabilities, while GM has $31B in unfunded pension and benefit liabilities. This is more indicative of better management than anything, and will hurt GM in the long run.
As of Q2 2011, Ford's debt is made up of $14B of automotive debt, and $84B of financial debt. They paid off $2.6B during Q2, and now have gross auto cash of $8B. Compare this to last year, where their cash was the same, but their auto debt was up to $26.2B. That is a total debt reduction of over $12B in one year. Because of this, their interest expense has been reduced dramatically. In an annualized basis, their interest expense has dropped $2B from Q2 2010 to Q2 2011. That is pure, bottom line savings an one reason Ford’s half-year operating margin was 6.9%. GM’s was 5%.
My whole point is their debt is easily sustainable. Companies issue debt to use the money effectively, and Ford did that extraordinarily well. They mortgaged everything in 2006 to have capital to go through their restructuring plans, and coincidently they had enough cash on hand to stay liquid enough once the credit markets froze up and GM and Chrysler went bankrupt. Plus, 84B of that debt is there because of their lending arm, so that debt is also being put to use, just like the debt at Toyota, Honda, and Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY).
Investors should also consider that Ford’s credit rating has been on the rise for the last couple years, and is close to receiving the coveted investment grade rating. With or without a credit rating boost, Ford can retire and reissue with more favorable interest rates in this amazing environment, cutting their interest expense even more. An investment grade boost would magnify that even more.
Ford's debt does still matter, and everything needs to be considered when buying a stock. However, when you're able to shift focus past Ford's debt, this company looks very strong.
Disclosure: I am long F.
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On Wednesday, October 15, John McCain must bring his ‘A’ game — by that I mean, not his ‘best’ game, but his ‘American’ game. And, he must be willing to get tough — a notion which his intermittently effective and, then, dismal campaign seemingly hasn’t mastered. McCain will never win this presidential election by trying to match the quixotic campaign of Barack Obama — for all of his attributes, McCain’s message doesn’t lend itself to peeling voters away with ideology. The man is not an ideologue. Further, McCain can’t deliver his message with same lofty prose that typifies an often-evasive and misleading Obama presentation.Rather, McCain needs to focus on what he does well and has done well for more than 40 years – represent America and American ideals.
In my lifetime, I have never seen an election season where traditional American values have been so marginalized by two presidential campaigns, which seemingly can’t do enough to trump the other with bland, pandering policy statements designed to appeal to the electorate’s independent middle.
For his part, Obama urges support for his campaign, by repeatedly telling Americans everything that America is not — *it’s not *a place of economic ‘fairness’ between the rich and poor; *it’s not *a place of racial equality between white, black, red and brown; *it’s not *a place worthy of the trust and faith of Americans at home and the broader international community. ‘Patriotism’ has been perverted to mean acceptance of America’s place amongst the pantheon of less noble and worthy democracies. It’s truly a campaign living and thriving on the margins of liberal thought.
For his part, in his pandering to the nebulous middle, McCain’s campaign has largely been about telling voters how he has worked in a bi-partisan way on a host of issues, none of which have worked remarkably well and one of which, i.e. campaign finance reform, has been an abject failure. Contrary to every bone in his body, McCain threw the conservative right a bone in late August, by introducing Sarah Palin to the American political scene — doing just enough to keep us in the fold, but then abandoning us just as quickly when Mr. Bi-Partisan returned to Arlington to address the economic crisis. To what end, I am not sure — for all practical purposes, he *did nothing *to advance his stature as a leader. Senator McCain then resumed his campaign amidst a muddled message of contempt for Obama’s past, a mantra which the mainstream media has buried and which he repeatedly disavowed in campaign appearances. Throw in two very anemic debate performances and the American people are left wondering who is this Republican candidate.
Senator McCain has one more chance to make his case and to bring the aforestated American game to voters’ attention. At Wednesday’s debate, McCain must repeatedly and mercilessly bring the following message to the electorate.
There is only one pro-business growth and employment growth candidate in this race — Senator John McCain. He must be prepared to articulate that raising taxes on job producers, in the name of economic fairness, is anything but and would be a disaster for an economy facing recession. There is only one lower taxes candidate in this race — Senator John McCain. He must be prepared to articulate that Obama’s tax cutting record is abysmal and deserving of another look from the voters, who can only conclude that his promises of middle class tax relief are illusory. There is only one pro-life candidate in this race — Senator John McCain. He must be prepared to articulate that his consistent pro-life record is one which respects disparate views, but which is principled in his steadfastness to supporting a culture of life in America. Simultaneously, Senator McCain needs to point out that he can not reconcile or understand Senator Obama’s position on withholding medical treatment to a newborn infant, one which was aborted but which lived, in order to further his extreme, pro-abortion agenda. There is only one pro-second amendment candidate in this race — Senator John McCain. He must be prepared to articulate that his consistent pro-second amendment record is one which respects and supports America’s rich history and support for the right to bear arms. Simultaneously, Senator McCain needs to point out that Senator Obama’s record on the second amendment is beyond abysmal. “There is no plausible way for Senator Obama to look the American public in the eye and say that his voting record constitutes consistent support for each voter’s second amendment rights.” There is only one candidate who is prepared to defend this country against all enemies, foreign and domestic. “Whether it’s radical Islamic facism pervasive in the Middle East and other areas of the world or domestic enemies, I am prepared from Day 1 to fight for the American people — I have no allegiances, except to the American people. I serve no people except the American people. I love America.” Obama will go ballistic at such a statement from Senator McCain — let him, because it sets the landscape for the last three weeks of this campaign, in which these issues will be at the forefront of McCain campaign message, which is enthusiastically pro-American and critical of Obama’s foreign policy statements, criticism of America and his past and current questionable associations.
If Senator McCain brings this ‘A’ game to his debate on Wednesday night, he will leave as the putative favorite to be elected president on November 4th. If he does not bring this ‘A’ game, and continues to vascillate from one ineffective message and advertisement to another, then this campaign is lost.
It’s time, Senator McCain, for you to do what you do best — be the courageous American we know you are.
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Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist at CIBC World Markets said that this recession was caused by high oil prices. (The Oil Drum blog, November 5, 2008) “Defaulting mortgages are only a sympton of the high oil prices. These high oil prices caused Japan and the Eurozone to enter a recession even before the most recent financial problems hit. (US events: Bear Stearns, AIG, Lehman) Higher oil prices started four of the last five world recessions.”
The Bush administration did all it could to keep America prosperous. As former Vice President Cheney stated correctly they tried to rein in Fannie and Freddie but the Democrats blocked them. But more importantly, the Bush Administration made every attempt to find oil in the States and develop ANWR, but on the latter the Democrats blocked them. ANWR is expected to provide 800,000 barrels of oil per day. Congress opened up ANWR in 1995 for energy development. But, President Clinton sustained a veto of the law. Had ANWR development commenced in 1996, that oil would have been available in 2006.
Now people are losing their homes, livelihoods, families are breaking apart due to the economic stress. Those of us who know the truth, are we going to take it to the people?
Fellow RedStaters, Members of Congress and other elected officials let us stop our misdirected focus on bailouts, mortgage modifications and spending. Tell the people the true cause of our calamity and retake the House!
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Rihanna's controversial new "Man Down" video has brought back painful memories for actress Gabrielle Union - she tried to shoot the man who raped her.
The movie star was sexually assaulted at gunpoint and beaten by an intruder at the shoe store she worked at before she found fame.
She opened up about her ordeal in 2009 after online comments about a gang rape victim in the U.S. left her feeling disgusted, and now she has waded into the furor surrounding the "Umbrella" hitmaker's latest promo.
In the video, Rihanna 'murders' her sex attacker, shooting him at a railway station before a series of flashback images show her grappling with him outside a nightclub as he tries to attack her.
Union insists the video hit home with her because she also tried to shoot her rapist, but missed.
She admits she's glad she didn't injure her attacker - as it would have "added insult to injury."
In a post on her Twitter.com page, Union writes, "Saw Man Down by Rihanna. Every victim/survivor of rape is unique, including how they THINK they'd like justice to be handed out. During my rape I tried to shoot my rapist, but I missed.
"Over the years I realized that killing my rapist would've added insult to injury. The DESIRE to kill someone who abused/raped you is understandable, but unless it's self defense in the moment to save your life, (it) just ADDS to your troubles.
"I repeat SELF DEFENSE to save yourself/protect yourself, I'm ALL for. Otherwise victim/survivor taking justice into your own hands with violence equals more trouble for you!!"
Union's rapist turned himself in to cops and he was sentenced to 33 years behind bars.
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Updated: Apple is kicking Android tablets soundly in the market, and the business model is a big reason why. Sure the iPad is sleek and has a billion apps in the App Store, but that alone is not why it is trouncing Android in the tablet market. A big reason is the data plan, or lack thereof with the iPad.
There are now Android tablets with outstanding hardware components, and others at prices cheaper than the iPad. They still don't sell in numbers that make a dent in iPad sales. Consumers flock to the iPad for the standard reasons, compelling design, good marketing among them, but a big reason is the ease of purchase. There are only a few choices to make when buying an iPad, memory and color primarily, and the big one -- Wi-Fi or 3G.
Tablets are highly mobile devices, and having integrated 3G is a good thing to get online just about anywhere. Not having to depend on finding a hotspot is a liberating thing, and Apple realized that in the beginning. That is why it negotiated the deal with AT&T to provide mobile data connectivity without a contract. Pay as you go is a brilliant streak to simplify the decision at purchase time. If you need 3G connectivity, turn it on and pay for a month of usage only when needed.
The lack of a no-contract data plan is killing Android, a slow, painful death in the marketplace. Buyers wanting mobile data are faced with a two-year commitment on top of an expensive tablet. While a Wi-Fi tablet can be selected, it is more restrictive than a 3G/4G enabled tablet. To prospective buyers determined to have 3G in the new tablet, many will just go with the iPad.
Carriers don't seem willing to offer Android tablets with month-to-month data, and as 4G tablets become the norm so will expensive data plans. High-end Android tablets can already be expensive, and throw in a two-year commitment for $30 - $80 on top of that and they can be out of the reach of most consumers.
Buy an Android tablet for $500 - $600 plus $50/month for two years, or an iPad 2 for $600 plus $20/month only when needed. Game might as well be over.
Update: This article was written from the standpoint that regular mainstream consumers, not the tech-savvy crowd who know how to compare the offerings, simply walk into a shop and walk out with a purchase. These folks don't compare hardware specs and don't follow the details of the various carrier data plans. They just know they don't want a two-year commitment for a tablet.
While it is always buyer beware, the vast majority of consumers are just not familiar enough with how this stuff works. Those are the consumers this article addresses. Most do not know anything about tethering a phone to a tablet, nor do they even know how to research for month-to-month plans. They walk into a Verizon/AT&T (or other carrier) store where they try their darnedest to sell them a contract.
See also:
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Decisions involving IT and communications technology across Victorian health organisations should be further devolved to local health boards, which will be responsible for owning the solutions and primarily accountable for their decisions, a ministerial review into IT throughout Victorian Health has recommended.
Released yesterday by Victorian Minister for Health David Davis, the review recommended that IT decisions be subject to normal business governance mechanisms and guided by state-wide health priorities; that the state-wide approach to IT be abandoned; and that a central governance council be created to oversee the role of IT.
For a decade, Victorian Health was embroiled in a series of setbacks and blowouts in an attempt to implement a state-wide IT strategy dubbed HealthSmart that looked to bring together the disparate IT systems used throughout the state. The HealthSmart project began as a four-year, AU$320 million project to update IT systems in hospitals and other medical facilities across the state that was due to be completed in 2007.
Davis said that the abolition of the HealthSmart participation policy, a document that ensured the use of HealthSmart procured solutions upon upgrading or purchasing a new system, would allow health services in Victoria to improve patient care and safety via the use of EMRs.
"The former Labor government's misguided HealthSmart 'participation policy' mandated an inflexible, wasteful, and ultimately unsuccessful one-size-fits-all suite of software to Victorian public health service providers, at enormous cost to the Victorian taxpayer," he said.
The review said that the participation policy proved to be "unnecessarily constraining" and forced smaller health services to purchase systems that provided more functionality than was needed. However, HealthSmart did not provide all the functionality needed by service providers, with the report saying that HealthSmart lacked "billing, clinical documentation, emergency department, and decision support for a range of specialist areas".
Due to the shared nature of HealthSmart, development tended to focus on the needs of larger organisations, which resulted in lower usability for clinicians in smaller providers.
"Over time, continuous compromise by smaller or specialist health services makes it less likely that the application will suit their needs," the report states. "The panel does not believe that the costs of maintaining the participation policy and the state-wide footprint approach are justified."
The report further recommends in the area of governance for future IT investment decisions that a state-wide health IT plan be developed, with the implementation of electronic medical records (EMR) across Victoria a priority, and that health service providers be required to develop an IT plan that includes the development of EMR as a prerequisite for central funding. Responding to the recommendations, the Victorian government broadly accepted them all, and said it would develop the state-wide IT health plan in the first quarter of next year.
The panel found that Health Shared Services (HSS) was unable to respond effectively to the recent changes in technology, such as cloud and mobility, and that HSS should be reviewed.
"HSS should be the subject of a review by external experts comparing the scope of services, structure of provision, costs, and value for money, with other possible future options. The review should also consider transitional arrangements, including the scenario in which some health service providers may wish to withdraw from HSS," the report says.
Looking at future procurement options, the panel recommended the process developed by the Victorian Information and Communications Technology Advisory Committee that espouses delivering projects in stages and realising business benefits earlier, as well as ensuring that IT systems are interoperable, modular, and reusable.
The report preferred the purchasing of services over a collection of systems, with the government in its response adding that projects should be based on the best "value-for-money proposals".
"The health sector should consider purchasing ICT as complete services rather than as systems or separate components of systems (for example, software, hardware, integration engines, operations) as part of a holistic value-for-money business case assessment," the report said.
The individual service providers will not be left to fend entirely for themselves, with the report suggesting that a central register of pre-approved vendors be created that providers can source from if they want to.
One recommendation rejected by the Victorian government was the suggestion that the personally controlled e-health records (PCEHR) developed by the federal health ministry move to an opt-out mechanism in Victoria rather than its current opt-in strategy. In response, the Victorian government said that it would "seek community, industry, and consumer advice as part of its contribution to current review processes underway on national e-health initiatives".
"Health ICT investments to date will be preserved, and interoperability between existing and future systems — supported by robust business cases with independent oversight — will be guiding principles," David Davis said.
The Victorian Health minister welcomed the findings of the report.
"The findings and recommendations are pragmatic, directional in nature, recognise the need to fully realise the current investment in health sector ICT, and position the health system for the future, particularly to meet the challenges of moving to e-health," he said.
Davis said that the state had learned the lessons from the HealthSmart journey, and would in future make ICT investments based on business cases.
"Labor's incompetent and failed HealthSmart ICT experiment is over."
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Be weary of who you defame on the Internets, because it could possibly end up costing you millions. Case in point, a model is suing 50 Cent for a cool $11 million because allegedly got her blacklballed in the industry via an Instagram post.
Sally Ferriera is the vixen in questions with what seems to be a proper lawyer game.
Reports Page Six:
A Yonkers actress and model slapped 50 cent with a $11 million defamation suit Thursday, claiming the rap star tried to “blacklist” her from future employment by allegedly lying that she leaked photos of a video shoot they did together to the media — photos that led to rumors they were dating. The Manhattan federal court suit says a fuming 50 Cent on March 27 – days after the photos of the “Big Rich Town” video were shot by a “third party” – took to his Instragram account and posted a photo of Sally Ferreira with the text: “WARNING: Do not attempt to work with this thirsty Video bitch [Her name is Sally Ferreira and she’s a model…] she sent photos Of the video shoot to Media takeout Saying I’m in a relationship With her Can anyone say RESHOOT.” Below the picture, 50 Cent – who’s real name is Curtis Jackson III — captioned the post with: “Big FAIL, super thirsty, new shoot this week coming. Unbelievable #smsaudio #Animal Ambition.
Fif deleted the Instagram post in question a few hours later, but the damage had been done. Nothing on the Internets is every truly deleted and sites like Mediatakeout and hot97.com posted the story.
According to Ferreira, three projects she had in the works were put on hold after 50’s post got around. While the Post says her lawsuit is for$11 million, the New York Daily News reports it’s for $5 million.
We’re guessing this will be settled swiftly out of court.
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Photo: Instagram
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by In the news
by Brendan Monaghan
With less than 48 hours until the much-hyped first in the nation primary, much of the suspense appears to have vanished in the crisp winter air. As long as the world keeps on spinning in this year of the Mayan apocalypse, Governor Mitt Romney will not only win the Granite State, but win big. He need only mail in the score from South Carolina (where much of the field has begun to congregate anyway). Much of the media attention in New Hampshire has focused on Romney’s remarkably smooth ride, seeing as he governed a neighboring state and owns a house there too. So one can’t help but wonder why non-junkies should bother watching or paying attention on Tuesday.
Simply put, the race for New Hampshire’s twelve proportionally-allocated delegates is for second place. Romney may be heavily-favored (by as many as three touchdowns in some polls), but he’s not polling much above 40%. That means the majority of the state’s delegates will likely be dispersed among a plethora of other candidates. As in Iowa, a strong showing for certain candidates may fan some life back in to their smoldering campaigns. Likewise, others could be snuffed out by underperforming their expectations. Iowa claimed Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and it should have claimed Perry after an embarrassing 15% combined vote share between the two. Ron Paul also underperformed, coming in a distant third when he might realistically have won.
One need look no further here than Jon Huntsman. The former Ambassador has bet the embassy on a third-place finish on Tuesday, pledging to drop out otherwise. Good news for him that statistician and prognosticator Nate Silver had Huntsman polling second as late as Sunday night. Even distant to Romney, even photo flash finish proximity to Paul would more than justify continuing on and hoping for a conduit through Nevada. Fourth place and he drops out to endorse Mitt the next day. There’s little doubt that a near permanent residence in the Granite State, combined with two solid debates have helped fuel this mini-surge.
Congressman Paul appears to have a window here as well, even if he doesn’t finish much better, percentage-wise, than he did in Iowa. Depending on Huntsman, Paul has been the main beneficiary of Newt Gingrich’s stunning post-surge decline, mirroring what the Speaker did in the Hawkeye State and across the country. Ron Paul racked in 8% of the vote four years ago, and supporters are hoping that nearly-tripling that result might finally force the media and Republican naysayers to take him seriously. Even with the remainder of the field taking off for the Palmetto State shortly after Sunday morning’s “Meet the Candidates,” New Hampshire’s delegates are still there for the taking. Thus, a second place finish- or even a strong third- would deliver invaluable propaganda to the maverick candidate and his devoted, vocal fan base.
By contrast, the unstated concession of New Hampshire to Romney by Gingrich, Perry, and especially Iowa’s surprise second Senator Santorum will not do them any service. Perry had shuttered his New Hampshire headquarters, apparently employing a similar “bet it all on Maroon and Black” strategy to Ambassador Huntsman. Why he bothered showing up for what could have been a disastrous debate twin-killing Saturday night and Sunday morning is somewhat of a mystery. Likewise, Gingrich’s decision to cut and run won’t help the image of a candidate desperately trying to convince voters he can still come back, again, and snatch the nomination from a much better-funded, more-prepared, well-supported Romney. Ordinarily, a dismal showing in such a traditionally pivotal state would doom a trio such as this- but the team appears to have benched their starters and looked ahead.
Senator Santorum also had the opportunity to build momentum from his entirely unexpected second place (really, near-miss) finish in Iowa. Instead, he appears to have done everything wrong this week, picking as many fights with undecided voters as converting and turning out supporters. A strong third or even distant second would not have been impossible- it still isn’t- and would have gone a long way to finally convincing disaffected conservatives that he, the former Senator, was their knight in shining armor to save them from the Massachusetts Moderate. By giving away New Hampshire (and according to a series of new polls, allowing Romney to pull ahead of and away from the field), time appears to be running out for those intending to stop Mitt.
Brendan is a graduate student at Portland State University, where he hosts the KPSU “Right Jab” radio program, and a regular contributor at Oregon Catalyst. Brendan is studying political science, and graduated from The Ohio State University in 2007, with a degree in political science.
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Over its last five fiscal years Titan has reported a cumulative $132 million in earnings or net income while at the same time generating $462 million of negative cash flow.
Titan Machinery's share price (NASDAQ:TITN) is on the precipice of a total collapse. Its shares have closed at lower prices for the last eight consecutive days and closed last week at a four year low of $14.00. The sharks smell blood in the water. The volume of Titan's September and December $12.50 and $15.00 put options on Friday was 26 times its daily average share volume.
Due to the plummeting crop and corn prices during the second half of July my timetable has been moved up. I am now predicting that Titan will voluntarily file for or be forced into bankruptcy by October 31st at the latest and by sometime during the month of August at the earliest. In December of 2013, I had first predicted that Titan would file for bankruptcy by the end of 2014.
The rationale or basis for my dire prediction is that Titan's management took a significant risk or made a big bet when it decided to embark on a strategy to increase the company's equipment inventories and total liabilities to near record, if not record, levels during the first half of its fiscal year ending January 31, 2015. For its first fiscal quarter Titan increased its debt by $38 million to increase its equipment inventories from $1.075 billion at its quarter ended January 31, 2014 to $1.116 billion for its quarter ended April 30, 2014.
Titan's management stated in its June 5, 2014, conference call that the company's strategy for its second fiscal 2015 quarter ending July 31, 2014 was to further tap its credit lines to increase its equipment inventories. Management's strategy was for the company to significantly increase its inventories during its first half of its fiscal 2015 year to have the ability to meet the demand from farmers in its fiscal 2015 third and fourth quarters ending October 31, 2014 and January 31, 2015 respectively.
The strategy of Titan's management to bet the farm by increasing their equipment inventories during the first half of the company's fiscal 2015 has backfired. Since Titan's early June investor conference call was held, the price of a bushel of corn has fallen by 30%. What was very unlucky for Titan was that much of the free fall in corn prices occurred during July which is the last month of its second fiscal quarter. Therefore, the probability is high that Titan had already increased its equipment inventories and debt significantly for the quarter before the precipitous drop in crop prices began. From June 30th to July 31st a bushel of corn fell from $4.41 to a recent $3.80. The year over year decline is approximately 45% based on the price being $6.79 per bushel on July 31, 2013.
The following excerpts are from an article, "With no sign of increased demand, farmers battle falling corn prices," that was in the Omaha World Herald newspaper on Sunday August 3, 2014 will effect Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) , Deere (NYSE:DE) (NYSE:CNHI) (NYSE:AGCO):
"Corn prices are below the cost of production this year for the first time since 2005."
"But the rapid reversal of grain prices and downward predictions are enough to make Nebraska and Iowa farmers think back to 1981, when profits disappeared and 15 straight years of losses triggered the farm crisis that collapsed thousands of farms' finances."
"'I don't think it's dawned on everybody yet how serious this is going to be,' said Dennis Bauer of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln extension office in Ainsworth. 'It's going to be far-reaching, not only the producers but the equipment dealers, car dealers, everybody.'" "It's a train wreck ready to happen."
"But agriculture is cyclical, and many experts believe the cycle is headed down. The Agriculture Department predicts that corn prices will average $3.65 next year, bottom out at $3.30 in 2016 and stay below $4 a bushel until 2023. Soybeans, the Midlands' second-largest crop, will follow suit."
The price of a bushel of corn falling to below a farmer's cost to produce it for the first time in nine years is a worse than a bad omen. The result is that widespread pessimism and the predictions of even lower crop prices are now rampantly spreading throughout the USA's farming communities. This makes it virtually impossible for anyone to get farmers to open their wallets for anything much less get them to make purchases of new or used farm equipment.
The sentence at the end of my introductory paragraph in my June 18, 2014, report, "Declining Profits and Higher Credit Costs Add Risk to Titan Machinery as a Going Concern," sums up what I had been predicting could potentially happen due to the risk that Titan's management had decided to take:
Management's strategy to borrow to build up inventory by $41 million to $1.12 billion during its first quarter of 2015 (ending April 30, 2014) and to also increase its inventory during its second quarter (ending July 31, 2014) and then to only have to liquidate at least $291 million in inventory in it last two fiscal quarters to meet its inventory reduction guidance is risky.
In that same report, I predicted that a big question Titan would have to face during the second half of its 2015 fiscal year is how drastic will the haircut be when it starts to liquidate its inventories at August 1st? I had calculated that even a modest discount of 5% would put the company on the threshold of violating its credit agreement with Wells Fargo. A discount of 10% or more would most likely result in Titan violating its credit agreement entirely. Based on July's crashing crop prices, I am skeptical that Titan will be able to liquidate their inventories at even a 10% discount. Since crop prices are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future, I predict that the eventual liquidation of their inventories will not even cover their total debts.
My new question that I believe will soon be answered is, how soon will Titan violate its credit agreement with Wells Fargo or has it already violated it? In violating the credit agreement Titan will be either be forced into or will have to voluntarily file for bankruptcy to protect itself from the lenders who collectively have outstanding loans to it of more than $1 billion.
If Titan did not violate the terms of their credit agreement in their quarter ended July 31st, I predict that the company will likely file for bankruptcy before they close the books on their third quarter ending October 31st. If they violated the agreement for their most recently closed quarter, I would expect them to file for voluntary bankruptcy by the end of August.
Titan has generated positive earnings or net income while generating negative cash flow for every fiscal year since it became a public company. Over its last five fiscal years Titan has reported a cumulative $132 million in earnings or net income while at the same time generating $462 million of negative cash flow. The bottom line is that Titan earnings are meaningless since they are completely cashless. It's been a house of cards since its IPO and it will soon be coming down.
The big issue that I have with Titan Machinery is that it is a "poster child" for those companies which do not have viable business models. Such companies as Titan are only kept alive via the continuous debt and equity financings that are provided by Wall Street for the purpose of their being able to generate ongoing commissions and investment banking fees from them.
Titan has been on my radar screen ever since it had been diagnosed multiple times by StockDiagnostics.com as having "The EPS Syndrome". It's a Financial Statement or Cash Flow Statement disorder that I discovered and named following my performance of an autopsy on Enron after it filed for bankruptcy. I had also discovered that there were more than 100 companies prior to Enron including Sunbeam which had un-expectantly filed for bankruptcy after it had been afflicted with The EPS Syndrome.
To learn more about The EPS Syndrome and the well-known companies who went out of business after being diagnosed as having it including Lehman Brothers, there is a four minute video titled Titan Machinery is a Perfect Short that I recommend. Additional information on the EPS Syndrome and Perfect Short Research™ is available at www.onlinefinancialsector.com.
This article was originally published at Equities.com on Monday August 4,2014.
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it. The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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PHOENIX -- Reds manager Bryan Price on Sunday lamented the damage done by the middle of the Diamondbacks' lineup. David Peralta and Paul Goldschmidt were back at it again Monday and they had plenty of accomplices, leaving Phillies pitcher Aaron Harang just as worn out as Price.
Welington Castillo, Yasmany Tomas and A.J. Pollock each homered, and Peralta and Goldschmidt combined for four hits and four RBI as the D-backs racked up 17 hits in a 13-3 victory at Chase Field.
Goldschmidt on Sunday broke out of a weeklong slump but the D-backs of late haven't relied so heavily on their MVP-caliber star. The series opener against the Phillies -- who came in with the best record in the majors since the All-Star break at 16-5 -- showed as much.
Pollock and Jake Lamb combined for five hits ahead of Goldschmidt, and Peralta, Castillo, Tomas and Chris Owings tallied nine hits and eight RBI off Harang and two Phillies relievers as the D-backs moved to within one game of .500.
"This team doesn't have big names but we have players that go out and give 100 percent," said Castillo, who matched his career-high with four RBI.
After the D-backs (55-56) scored single runs in the third and fourth innings, they took the lead with a three-run fifth. Peralta had a two-run double off the center field wall and Castillo homered onto the concourse just above the pool in left-center.
Arizona put the game away with seven hits and six runs in the sixth. Jamie Romak, Peralta and Tomas each had an RBI in the inning and Castillo added a three-run triple to become the first catcher in franchise history with a triple and home run in the same game.
"I thought Tomas came out tonight after the three games off from starting and really flexed his muscles out there with outstanding at-bats," manager Chip Hale said, "and it really flowed the whole way through."
Castillo was knocked woozy for a brief moment when he took a Dominic Brown backswing to the head.
Hale and head training Ken Crenshaw came out to check on the catcher. They asked him what the score was and Castillo looked up at the scoreboard.
"I said that was cheating," Hale said.
Crenshaw then asked Castillo what he did in his previous at-bat.
"He knew he hit a home run," Hale said, "so we knew he was OK."
Castillo's home run was his eighth in 12 games and his 13th since he was acquired from the Mariners on June 3. The D-backs are 11-1 when Castillo homers.
"They were too comfortable up there," said Harang, who gave up eight runs in 5 1/3 innings. "Obviously they were seeing the ball well off me."
It was all more than enough for Rubby De La Rosa, who gave up three runs in six innings and won for the 10th time this season.
"He was a winner tonight and that's what we want from our starters," Hale said. "Even without his best stuff, I don't think. ... He was able to curb the damage and come in and keep us in the lead."
DID YOU NOTICE?
Mixed in with everything else the D-backs did at the plate, Pollock showed off his entire offensive game with a home run, a triple, an infield single and a stolen base. It was his 12th home run and 26th stolen base this year.
KEY STAT
.331 -- Peralta is 58 for 175 in the cleanup spot, with 20 extra-base hits and 34 RBI.
LAST CALL
Goldschmidt moved him into fifth place all-time in D-backs history with 383 RBI, just ahead of current Nationals manager Matt Williams. Goldschmidt also drew his 24th intentional walk this year, tying the club record for most in a season; that was set by Luis Gonzalez in 2001.
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Republican Sen. Richard G. Lugar (search) on Saturday said the United States isn't doing enough to stave off terrorism and criticized President Bush (search) for failing to offer solid plans for Iraq 's future.
Lugar, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (search), said the nation must prevent terrorism from taking root around the world by "repairing and building alliances," increasing trade, supporting democracy, addressing regional conflicts and controlling weapons of mass destruction.
Unless the country commits itself to such measures, "we are likely to experience acts of catastrophic terrorism that would undermine our economy, damage our society and kill hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of people," the Indiana senator said during an appearance at the Fletcher School at Tufts University (search).
Lugar said military might alone isn't enough to eradicate terrorism.
"To win the war against terrorism, the United States must assign U.S. economic and diplomatic capabilities the same strategic priority that we assign to military capabilities," he said.
He later added, "Military action is necessary to defeat serious and immediate threats to our national security. But the war on terrorism will not be won through attrition — particularly since military action will often breed more terrorists and more resentment of the United States."
Lugar, who was awarded the Dean's Medal for distinguished service in international affairs, said it's still unclear how much control the Iraqi people will have over their nation's security when power is transferred to them June 30.
"I am very hopeful that the president and his administration will articulate precisely what is going to happen as much as they can, day by day, as opposed to a generalization," he said.
It's not the first time that Lugar has criticized Bush, a fellow Republican. In 2003, Lugar and Sen. Joseph Biden, the committee's top Democrat, warned that the Bush administration had not given enough consideration to what would happen in Iraq after the fighting ended.
Also Saturday, Lugar blamed the Bush and Clinton administrations for not adequately funding the foreign affairs budget, noting that the military's budget is more than 13 times what the nation spends for diplomacy.
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Forget about a walk in the park, West Coast are preparing for an almighty ambush when they take on struggling Melbourne in Saturday night's AFL clash at Patersons Stadium.
The Demons face a fight to avoid the wooden spoon following a demoralising eight-game losing streak that hit new depths in last week's 64-point defeat to GWS.
Such is their dire state, Melbourne have formally asked the AFL for a priority draft pick in order to give their lengthy rebuild a jump start.
That won't come quick enough to save them this week as they attempt to overcome a venue that has been a graveyard for them over the past decade.
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The Demons have lost their past 14 matches at Patersons Stadium by an average of 47 points, with their last success in Perth coming back in 2004.
Despite all the signs pointing to a big West Coast win on Saturday night, Eagles coach Adam Simpson has warned his players to be on guard against a Melbourne outfit that will be fighting for pride.
"It's something I'm really wary of with our group," Simpson said on Friday.
"We've all been at clubs in situations where your back is against the wall.
"Melbourne have challenged some sides and beaten some really good sides away.
"They came over (to Perth) on Wednesday, so I get the sense there's a bit of a line in the sand type of feel about it.
"We're really preparing for a tough battle. It's not going to be a walk in the park. I think they're going to come out firing."
The Eagles welcome back star forward Mark LeCras from a calf injury, while defender Sam Butler is expected to play despite undergoing minor surgery on his eye earlier in the week.
Last week's heartbreaking three-point loss to Essendon put a major dent in West Coast's finals hopes, but Simpson said the club had remained optimistic this week.
West Coast need to win their final two games and rely on other results to fall their way in order to sneak into the top eight.
"It can be a real grind this part of the year with training and the long season, but there is a sense of enthusiasm among the group," Simpson said.
"Some of the players are saying they wish we could go on for another four or five weeks, and I hope we do extend our season.
"There is a good vibe around the club."
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The baby who in March was hours from being pulled off life support at a Canadian hospital but was rescued by a pro-life group that brought the boy to the U.S. for treatment, died Tuesday night in the comfort of his own home in Windsor, Ontario.
"Baby Joseph" died with his mother Sana Nader, father Moe Maraachli at the home, CBC News reported.
“It seemed like a relaxing breath, like he was OK. It didn’t seem like he struggled,” Nader said, according to the report. “It was God’s way of telling us his last breath was OK.”
The family of 20-month-old Joseph Maraachli, who suffered from a rare, progressive neurological disease rendering him in a vegetative state, understood his long-term prognosis was grim. But they sought a medical procedure that would, at the minimum, allow boy to die at home instead of in a hospital bed hooked up to a respirator.
But the boy took center stage in a right-to-life dispute after the Canadian hospital denied to perform the tracheotomy and reportedly recommended he be removed from life support, according to reports.
More On This... Exclusive Video of Baby Joseph at Home
His parents appealed to Canadian courts to overturn the hospital's decision, but were denied.
Upon learning the news, Rev. Frank Pavone and other staff members at Priests for Life , the pro-life group, removed "Baby Joseph" from the Canadian hospital and delivered him to Cardinal Glennon Children’s Hospital in St. Louis, where doctors successfully performed the tracheotomy that enabled the boy to be moved back to his home without the need of a respirator.
Pavone said in a statement:
"I learned with sadness tonight of the passing of Baby Joseph, and extend my prayers to his family. This young boy and his parents fulfilled a special mission from God. Amidst a Culture of Death where despair leads us to dispose of the vulnerable, they upheld a Culture of Life where hope leads us to welcome and care for the vulnerable."
He continued, "From my first conversation with Baby Joseph's parents, they expressed to me their trust in God. They had no demands of Him regarding how long their son would live. They just wanted to fulfill their calling to love their child unconditionally and to protect him from those who considered his life worthless.
"I praise God tonight for the tens of thousands who stood with Priests for Life and other prolife groups to save Baby Joseph. We remain convinced that the value of life is not measured in months or years, but rather reflected in the love we share moment by moment. We all loved Joseph, because God entrusts us to the care of each other. In that conviction we will continue to counteract the culture of death and restore protection and equality to all, born and unborn."
Priests for Life covered all of the family’s medical bills while Joseph underwent treatment in the U.S. and also covered the costs of Joseph’s flight home, the Windsor Star reports.
"This is all the family ever wanted, let God decide when their child should leave this earth, not doctors our the civil courts," Brother Paul O'Donnell posted on Facebook, according to the Terri Schindler Schiavo Foundation's website.
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Newton Daly via Getty Images
Contribution by Andrea Davis
Every father needs a space that's just their own, free of toys, clothes and other elements belonging to everyone else in the house. This space should be filled with everything they enjoy instead: a TV, comfortable couch or chair, stereo system, books and so on. It's sometimes referred to as a man cave, though it can also be a home office, garage, basement or home theater room. The main idea is that it belongs solely to dad, so he can relax and recharge for a few hours.
This Father's Day, help your dad start creating his man cave or add to it by considering some of these man cave elements fathers enjoy:
1. Dads like to invite other dads over sometimes, so they need to have room and entertainment for everybody.
2. Many fathers love to gather for some beer and a game of poker on the weekends.
3. What dad doesn't love a comfortable couch and Star Wars?
4. Working in the garage and watching sports on a projector -- is this not dad's ultimate haven?
5. Dad can decompress with a game of ping-pong or on his leather couch near the flat-screen TV.
6. An eclectic home theater system with soundproofed walls for watching the game ensures everyone is happy.
7. Save dad the time and money of going to a pool hall.
8. Having a small bar keeps dad happy and saves room in the kitchen fridge.
9. Wouldn't your father love a home theater room with comfy reclining seats and cup holders like a real movie theater?
10. No paying for gym membership and moms can use it, too.
Photos courtesy of DesignMine
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Four times a year big-time money managers are required to file form 13F with the SEC. This always sparks news stories naming the most important investors, people like George Soros and Warren Buffett, and drawing conclusions about what they are doing. The implication is that you might benefit from looking over their shoulders.
You won't! The information is worse than worthless - it is misleading. Here is why the three things you should know:
The reports are old news. The law provides 45 days to file after the end of the quarter and there is no incentive to be early. The process for filing has been streamlined for the modern age, but the requirements have not. This delay is an eternity in the modern investing world. The consumer of the information has no idea whether the positions are still valid. Has recent news been important? Could the firm reporting be selling into the strength generated by the report? They have no obligation beyond the legal reporting. They are free (and should be) to trade in the best interest of their investors as they get new information and opportunities. The reports cover only long positions. There is no requirement to report "shorts." The implications of this gap invalidate the reports. Bill Ackman, for example, is widely known for his short position in Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) and his very public attacks on the company and its business model.
If you relied upon the government to inform you about Mr. Ackman's short positions, the 13F would tell you absolutely nothing!
Click to enlarge
Here is another example. George Soros reported long positions in Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) and a call (a bullish position) in a gold ETF. What do we know from this? Nothing at all. He might actually have a neutral gold position like a pairs trade, long Barrick and short another gold stock that he believes to be weaker. We don't know because shorts are not reported.
His long call position in the gold ETF might be paired with a short call. Whether the overall position is long or short depends on which strike and expiration date was bought and sold. Once again, we know nothing about the overall position. I do not know from the filing whether Mr. Soros is really bullish on gold and neither do you.
3. The report on options positions is - can't think of a kind word - clueless. Since the government will not approve a method of analyzing an options position, they require something that is really stupid. The filer reports long options only. This means that there are no spreads, including both long and short options, even though that is the most common method of trading for big-time investors. Worse yet, the long options are not described in terms of their actual value. The value of each option is assigned the nominal value of the underlying stock!! Professional traders and the Nobel-Prize winning options modelers know that an option has a value based upon a variety of factors, including the stock price, the strike price, the time to expiration, interest rates, expected volatility and expected dividends. The option has a theoretical value based upon these factors and a "delta" (the expected change in option value for each dollar move in the underlying).
I understand the government's problem in assigning a "theoretical value" and assuming some level of expected volatility. That does not excuse these blunders:
Ignoring short positions in the spread
Assigning the underlying stock value to options, even those that are far out-of-the money
Here is a great example from Mike Saltzman, my top researcher, associate portfolio manager and veteran options trader.
The reported SPY put position (a bearish bet) is 2.1 million. The government filings multiply that times the value of the underlying SPY, reaching a total value of $430 million or so. Since the total number of puts is greater than last quarter, this is seized upon in the popular media.
In reality, we have no idea of the strike or the time to expiration for these puts. The implication is that we have no idea of the value or the deltas for each put. If far out of the money, they might be cheap protection. More likely they represent a spread, the sort that a professional trader might buy as cheap downside protection.
Suppose, for example, that you did this spread.
Buy 1.05 million Jun'16 180P for .21
Sell 2.1 million Jun'16 175P for .12
Buy 1.05 million Jun'16 170P for .09
This is a put butterfly, an extremely common limited risk position. We own the same number of long and short option positions, so risk is limited. This particular butterfly would cost about $.06 in option and $6 in commissions. It has a lot of potential. If the SPY goes down to 175 it would make $9.94 per spread or almost. This spread has a very small short delta component. It will only make money if the SPY were to fall more than 10% in just a few weeks. It costs eighteen cents (or about 180K) and might make almost $10 million.
This is not really a short bet on the market. It is downside protection purchased on a risk/reward basis.
Meanwhile, on the 13F this would show up as being long 2.1 million puts, with a value (think short value) of $430 million - completely unrelated to the actual position value or properties. There are many other examples of spreads that would fit the 13F filing, including some that actually are bullish plays on SPY.
From the filing itself we cannot even conclude that Mr. Soros has a short position in SPY. It is extremely unlikely that he simply bought 2 million puts without any offsetting short puts. Professional traders usually work with spreads.
Conclusion
The 13F report is a helpful and costly exercise. Those who take it seriously may well do the wrong thing.
I wrote about this two years ago but the media coverage has not improved. The best investment advice is to ignore these stories.
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Kim Kardashian's former publicist has issued a public apology to the star for alleging her short-lived wedding to Kris Humphries was staged to gain media attention.
Jonathon Jaxson, who claimed to have worked for the star between 2007 and 2009, spoke out in the wake of the star's decision to divorce her husband of 72 days, alleging he often used to craft publicity stunts to boost her profile.
After claiming he knew the wedding was "staged", Kardashian's legal team launched a $200,000 lawsuit, accusing him of undermining her reputation.
Now Jaxson has taken to his website to write an official apology to the reality TV beauty, insisting the comments were his personal opinion and not fact.
He writes, "I wanted to apologize publicly to Kim Kardashian for any confusion that I may have caused by the personal statements I made recently regarding Kim Kardashian.
"I would like to further clarify that I did not have any first hand knowledge of Kim's relationship with Kris. Any statement I made regarding Kim and her marriage was my opinion only and was not intended to imply first hand knowledge of Kim's thoughts and feelings."
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Photo: Victor Hugo/Patrick McMullan via Getty Image
Divorce star Sarah Jessica Parker — who is rather literary these days — shared an interesting theory about Sex and the City in a recent interview with Chris Hardwick. And by “interesting” we mean “about to shatter everything you know and hold dear,” so read the following at your peril.
“I used to wonder if Samantha, Charlotte, and Miranda were real,” mused SJP on Hardwick’s Nerdist podcast. “That that wasn’t just her column.”
Accusing your best friends of being narcissistic projections of your writerly mind seems like a real Carrie thing to say, but SJP has the evidence to back it up.
“They’re such perfectly archetypal characters,” she continued. “So you’re writing a column about sexual politics and observations of female-male, primarily, heterosexual relationships, so you’re picking one type. You’re saying, ‘This type is this and this,’ and then you complicate it more, like any good writer does. So I’m not entirely sure they are real … What we are seeing isn’t necessarily what happened in New York.”
With apologies to all the self-identified Samanthas, Mirandas, and Charlottes out there: Turns out you have actually been Carries all along. Go ahead and realign your self-conception as needed.
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"Dancing With The Stars" co-host and Fox Sports reporter Erin Andrews has a busy life, but always makes time for her hunky hockey player boyfriend.
And it's usually over romantic dinners!
Backstage after part one of the "DWTS" finale Monday, Andrews told reporters she and New York Rangers star Jarret Stoll "love to do comfy cozy dinners in New York.
"We love going out to eat and that's our word, 'comfy cozy.' We like to find a good comfy cozy spot with candles, just to see each other. Because we don't get to really see each other 'cause he's in the middle of his season and, as I remind him all the time, 'Babe, I have two jobs. You just have one.' "
Andrews said that recently, "We signed a lease on a new apartment and we went to go celebrate at Shake Shack. Very romantic. We loved it. Vanilla milk shake!"
Andrews said that when she has a rare night off, she's either at Madison Square Garden "cheering on my boyfriend or we are going out to a lovely dinner in New York City or calling Seamless or DoorDash [for takeout]."
When asked by FOX411 if they will get married, Andrews said, "I don't know," then joked, "Do you know something I don't? Breaking news. I have no idea."
Andrews recently told "Redbook" magazine she wasn't sure what the future holds for them but hopes to have a family.
What is certain is that the TV interviewer, 37, and NHL player, 33, have been together through good times and bad. After Stoll was arrested for alleged drug possession in April, he avoided jail time by pleading a felony cocaine possession charge down to two misdemeanors. As part of his community service, Stoll created a hockey program for at-risk kids.
In August, Stoll joined the New York Rangers spending seven years with the Los Angeles Kings.
Meanwhile, as FOX411 previously reported, Andrews is still dealing with having been the victim of a bizarre peephole stalker. She is asking Marriott International and several other defendants to cough up millions after she was secretly videotaped in the nude in her Tennessee hotel room in 2008, according to court records obtained by The Smoking Gun.
On Monday, Andrews, who has interviewed oodles of athletes at NFL games and during baseball's playoffs and Word Series, admitted their struggles often make her emotional.
"You get to know athletes really well when you cover them a lot, sometimes even get to know their families," she told reporters at "DWTS."
"My boyfriend works really hard when he trains. I get kind of sentimental and a little misty when a guy's out, when he gets injured. When Tony Romo goes down-- I love his wife, Tony's so good to us--when he said, 'I broke my collarbone,' it's just, [grimacing] 'God, it's Week 2,'" Andrews said. "You know how much they train and you think about their families. That's very difficult."
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President Obama used his weekend trip to Africa to pledge millions of dollars in aid and loans that will help African countries develop their economies and fight violent extremism.
The U.S. will contribute $40 million before the fiscal year ends in September to counter violent extremism in East Africa. The administration also pledged $465 million in "new training, equipment, capacity building and enabling assistance to partners in Africa," according to a White House statement.
Obama will host a summit during the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September where participants will make "significant, new and concrete commitments to fill gaps in existing peacekeeping missions and plan for future ones" in Africa, according to the White House.
On the business side, the White House pledged to back up to $450 million in loans made to small and medium-sized businesses by Kenya's Equity Bank Group through the Overseas Private Investment Corp. The government's development finance institution is also considering funneling $100 million into Goldman Sachs' "10,000 Women" initiative, and a women's entrepreneur program of the International Finance Corp.
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Ovechkin once. Ovechkin twice. Steen not at all.
Just like that, there's a tie atop the NHL goal scoring race, as well as a new leader in the Metropolitan Division.
Alex Ovechkin scored his 16th and 17th goals in the first period, while Alexander Steen was held pointless for only the second time this season Sunday night in the Washington Capitals' 4-1 win over the St. Louis Blues.
"For me, it means a lot," Ovechkin said. "It's always nice to score big goals in big game, but it was a very good team effort today."
Braden Holtby made 46 saves, a career high for a regular season game. Mikhail Grabovski and John Carlson also scored, and Nicklas Backstrom had three assists for the Capitals, who have won three straight win and seven out of nine to leapfrog the Pittsburgh Penguins for first place in the division.
Vladimir Sobotka scored in the second period for the Blues, who had won eight of 10. The Capitals caught them at a good time, with St. Louis playing for the third time in four nights and on the second half of a back-to-back after a home win over the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday.
"We knew they're a hot team, they're a good team, strong, and we knew their situation last night and what they had to deal with," Carlson said. "And I'm sure they're saying it's not an excuse, but for us we wanted to jump on them as quick as possible."
Sure enough, the Blues said the schedule wasn't an excuse, but they also knew they couldn't afford to be playing catch-up with tired legs.
"First period, we were a step behind," St. Louis defenseman Jay Bouwmeester said. "To get down like that against a tough like that, it's tough."
The Blues took a season-high 47 shots compared to 20 for the Capitals, but the statistic is misleading. St. Louis' quality chances were few and far between, while Washington scored on three of its first six shots.
Ovechkin got the first two. Sprung on a pass at center ice by Backstrom — another sign of the solid chemistry that has developed between the two — Ovechkin sped past the Blues defensemen and into the right circle for a clean look, beating goaltender Jaroslav Halak stick-side. Ovechkin then flicked in a rebound off a shot by Karl Alzner to give the Capitals a 2-0 lead less than 13 minutes into the game.
Meanwhile, Steen finished with three shots on goal and another four that were blocked. His points streak came to an end at 13 games, the longest for a Blues player since Pierre Turgeon's 15-game run in 1999-2000.
"We had lots of shots, but we didn't have any real penetration, or good shots," Bouwmeester said. "That wasn't our best game, for sure."
After Ovechkin's two goals, Grabovski poked in a rebound from a tight angle to make it 3-0 late in the first period.
The Blues and Capitals also have the top two power plays in the NHL, and they traded man-advantage goals in the second period. Sobotka and Carlson each scored with a drive through traffic from high in the slot, with Carlson's goal ending an 0 for 11 power-play drought for Washington over the previous three games.
"Obviously we expected them to be a little tired," Washington coach Adam Oates said. "But I don't think those goals came from fatigue. I think we got rewarded for doing the right things."
Notes: The Blues had scored first in their previous 10 games. ... The Capitals have won six in a row at home. ... Washington D Mike Green missed his second consecutive game with a lower body injury and was placed on injured reserve. Oates said Green might return for Wednesday's game against the Penguins. ... The Capitals recalled D Dmitry Orlov from Hershey of the AHL. ... Holtby had a 47-save game in the 2012 playoffs against the New York Rangers.
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Follow Joseph White on Twitter: http://twitter.com/JGWhiteAP
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Austin Peay coach Carrie Daniels thinks this one is going to help in the long run.
The Lady Govs shot 30 percent and committed 24 turnovers in a 108-53 loss at No. 7 Louisville on Saturday night, but they showed a lot of toughness on the boards and that's what Daniels was focused on in the wake of the tough game against the Cardinals.
"I think you're going to see this team, Louisville, make a deep run in the tournament come March," Daniels said. "This is a game that will help us prepare for our conference season.
"Our team, what we will take from this, is the rebounding. For us to battle on the boards the way we did, being outmatched from every position, that is a positive for us. I don't think we quit. Even with the score being the way it was, our kids continued to battle."
The young Lady Govs - who feature five sophomores and five freshmen - had 45 rebounds, compared to 52 for Louisville. Alexis Hardaway and Beth Rates had nine rebounds apiece, and Kristen Stainback had five.
"We do have a bunch of young players, but I don't think we should ever look at that as any type of excuse or anything," said Stainback, who had a team-high 14 points. "It's all about hard work, and I think today we did work hard. Louisville's an amazing team."
Shoni Schimmel scored 24 points, Cortnee Walton had 13, and Sara Hammond 12 points to help Louisville (10-1) win its third straight game. Ranked sixth nationally in field goal shooting at 49 percent, the Cardinals shot 52 percent against the Lady Govs.
Stainback scored eight of the first 10 points for Austin Peay (3-6), which held its last lead at 7-6. Louisville responded with a 10-0 run and led 56-34 at halftime.
The Cardinals had 27 assists and only eight turnovers, delighting coach Jeff Walz. Schimmel was 9 of 14 from the field.
"One thing Coach talks about is how our whole team there's no drop off," Schimmel said. "For us to have that it's a great thing and for us to have 1 through 13 solid it's going to help us."
Austin Peay had only eight field goals in the second half of its third consecutive loss.
"We weren't as disciplined as we needed to be in getting into an offense and making them play half-court defense," Austin Peay coach Carrie Daniels said. "We were rushing, the shot clock was winding down and we were forced to just throw up a shot, and it wasn't the shot we wanted."
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(SportsNetwork.com) - The Baltimore Orioles hope the return of Miguel Gonzalez to the rotation on Sunday afternoon can help them avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs.
The American League East-leading Orioles came into this series having won four in a row, including a three-game sweep of the hosting Chicago White Sox, but have been bested in the first games of this set as they are meeting the Cubs for the first time since 2008. Baltimore won two of three in that series.
Still, the O's lead the division by seven games over the New York Yankees and have recalled Gonzalez to take the rotation spot of Ubaldo Jimenez, who has gone 4-9 with a 4.83 earned run average this season while missing time with injury.
Jimenez, who signed a four-year, $50 million deal this past offseason, has been demoted to the bullpen. Gonzalez, meanwhile, makes his first start with Baltimore since Aug. 7 as he was optioned a few days later to make room on the roster for Jimenez despite a 6-6 record and 3.80 earned run average over 20 games (19 starts).
"Yeah, it was a tough decision for them," Gonzalez told Baltimore's website of the demotion. "I'm one of the few guys who have options, so it was a decision for them to make. I went down, got my work in and I'm ready to rock and roll."
The 30-year-old righty returns to face the Cubs for the first time in his career and will be countered by rookie Tsuyoshi Wada.
Wada has gone 3-1 with a 2.44 ERA over his first seven major league starts and was recently awarded a victory from a start on Tuesday that was suspended and resumed on Thursday. Chicago won 2-1 after play picked up.
Before rain halted the game on Tuesday, the left-handed Wada hurled five scoreless innings of six-hit ball, striking out three without giving up a walk.
The Cubs saw more rain on Saturday, but got in a full nine innings to beat the Orioles 7-2 thanks to a four-run second inning. Chris Coghlan highlighted the frame with a two-out triple that plated three runs.
A 3-hour, 9-minute rain delay followed Chicago's second-inning outburst. Javier Baez later led off the seventh inning with a homer, his seventh of the campaign as the Cubs won for the fifth time in seven games.
"We have the talent to win. I think why Baltimore wins so often and why they're so good is how consistent they are. That's an area of growth we could use," Coghlan said.
Bud Norris allowed four runs on four hits and a walk over the first two frames for Baltimore.
"They got a good team that's young and up-and-coming," Norris said of the Cubs.
Baltimore confirmed earlier Saturday that third baseman Manny Machado will undergo season-ending surgery on his injured right knee in the coming week.
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On Wednesday, Apple pulled its newest laptop out of a game-changing (and slightly thinner) manila envelope. The ultrathin Macbook Air is back -- and better than ever.
There are 13- and 11-inch versions of the slim new laptop, and I've been using the 11-inch version for a few days now. You can color me impressed.
The new design is impressive -- and dare I say sexy? As Tracy Byrnes of the Fox Business Network said when she first saw the new Air, "That's hot!"
And that's coming from someone willing to confess that the original MacBook Air didn't make much sense to me. The notebooks were overpriced and underpowered. In fact the Air was the only product in Apple's catalog I couldn't recommend. Steve Jobs changed that on Wednesday by combining design elements of the iPad and a laptop.
"We wondered," Jobs said at the keynote event. "What would happen if an iPad and a MacBook hooked up?"
What happened was an iPad-like aluminum unibody design with one edge that's a tenth of an inch thick. What also happened is "instant on" functionality like that in the iPad: Open the lid and the screen instantly turns on, ready for work. My most recent Windows 7 machine takes significantly longer to resume working from sleep.
Apple changed the game by creating a laptop that's always ready to work, ready to jump on the Internet, ready send an e-mail -- all in the blink of an eye. Here's a few reasons to like it:
Price: The cost is also a game changer. At $999 the 11-inch version could be sitting under a lot of Christmas trees this season.
Display: The screen is gorgeous for viewing photos despite its small size. It boasts 1,366 x 768 resolution. What does that mean? Your photos and videos will look bright, sharp, and colorful.
Weight: I can't imagine ever buying a heavier laptop again. At 2.3 pounds it's the perfect travel companion. No more carrying a 6 pound laptop. I carried it to and from work over the past few days and I didn't even notice it in my man bag. Yes I carry a man bag, it's New York.
Speed: Fast is my thing, and this Air puts the old Air to shame. The 11-inch model sports a Core 2 duo processor and an Nvidia graphics card; I opened and used multiple, processor-intensive applications and still surfed the web with ease. And I did so with much of its 5-hour battery juice left to spare.
Yes there are faster cheaper Windows PCs out there, but nothing this solid and intelligently designed. As my Dad always says, you pay for what you get.
The new MacBook Air isn't for everyone, however. If you need a DVD burner you won't find it here. If you need tons of storage for your iTunes library or photo collection, this isn't the machine for you either. Sure, it has the iLife suite of applications -- Garageband, iMovie, iPhoto and more -- but if you're a serious video editor, you'll laugh at the Air's storage space and processor speed.
If you want that stuff, this machine is not for you. Each week I edit a video podcast, or large audio files, and that's something I'd never do on an 11-inch MacBook Air. But for the vast majority of tasks, this machine fulfills all of my needs, and more.
What about an iPad? Should you buy this instead of an iPad?
The MacBook Air and iPad are different devices, and they aren't mutually exclusive. I still prefer my iPad for reading websites and books, and playing games. So far, nothing beats leaning back in the recliner with my touch-screen iPad and reading a newspaper or watching Netflix.
I thought the release of the iPad would kill the MacBook Air. I was wrong. This week Apple saved the MacBook Air -- and made the laptop more than just relevant. Apple made the Air great.
Clayton Morris is a Fox and Friends host and the tech guru behind the Gadgets and Games show -- and is much thicker than the MacBook Air. Follow Clayton's adventures online on Twitter @ClaytonMorris and by reading his daily updates at his blog.
Clayton Morris joined FOX News Channel (FNC) in 2008 and is the co-host of FOX & Friends Weekend. Clayton covers technology for FOX News Channel and FOX Business Network. He's also the creator of ReadQuick a speed reading app for iOS. Click here for more information on Clayton Morris.
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Successful digital design extends beyond appearances into the ways in which a user interacts with your website or app -- how icons contribute to navigation, for instance, or the ways in which a site can scroll. But the field of user interface design, which aims to hone the beauty and utility of software as well as a wide variety of hardware products (computers, smartphones and cars, for instance), can be tricky to master.
To maximize your website, app or product, creating a story is fundamental to this process. This can be achieved by incorporating real-life images, embedding social media links and featuring interactive videos, according to the below infographic courtesy of design firm Designmantic.
Additionally, software needs to be able to scale to any width in today’s mobile world, and a user interface should ideally comprise no more than three complementary colors. When it comes to selecting a font, avoid serifs. Gothic, however, is always a safe bet.
Related: 5 Examples of Stellar Logo Design and Packaging
For additional tips, check out the infographic in full below:
Related: You Can't Afford Any of These 4 Mobile App Design Mistakes
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Two South Carolina soldiers were killed Sunday after trying to protect a woman at a bar that was being chased by the man charged in their deaths.
Joseph Mills, 25, of Little Mountain, was charged with two counts of murder. Mills said in court Monday that he was chasing a girl who grabbed drugs from his car and took off. He apologized for what happened, but thought the two men who interceded were going to “lynch” him.
The Lexington County Coroner Margaret Fisher identified the victims as Charles Allen Judge Jr., 40, and Jonathon Michael Prins, 29, according to the Island Packet.
The South Carolina National Guard confirmed to WIS-TV that Judge was a staff sergeant and an engineering instructor at McCrady Training Center. He joined the South Carolina National Guard in 1994 and served in Iraq in 2004. Prins was a soldier at Fort Jackson, according to the station.
Col. Renita Berry, Judge’s commander at the McCrady Training Center in the 218th Regiment Leadership Command, told the Island Packet that his fellow soldiers were shocked and saddened by his death.
“He was an outstanding instructor who served with great dedication and enthusiasm and demonstrated unwavering commitment to his peers, his students and this organization every day,” Berry said. “He will be missed tremendously.”
Related Image Expand / Contract Joseph Mills. (Lexington County Sheriff's Office)
The Island Packet, citing the arrest warrants, reported that Mills was physically assaulting a woman who several patrons at the Lake Murray bar and the soldiers separated him from her. Mills then shot the soldiers with a handgun, the warrants state.
Lexington County Sheriff’s spokesman Capt. Adam Myrick said the woman was seriously injured in the attack. It’s unclear whether the shooting occurred inside or outside the bar, but video of the incident was captured, according to the warrants.
Judge Arthur Myers denied bond for Mills on Monday. He warned Mills plenty of times not to speak during his hearing, but Mills ignored the requests. He tried to explain what happened to Myers.
“I’m very sorry about what happened,” Mills said. “I never meant for it to happen like that. I was being lynched by eight people because I was chasing a girl who grabbed drugs off the seat and took off running.”
The Frayed Knot Bar & Grill, where the incident took place, is closed until Wednesday. They issued statements on Facebook about the incident.
Click for more from the Island Packet.
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Six current or former state employees were charged Friday with misconduct and other crimes in the Flint water crisis, bringing to nine the number of public officials facing prosecution over the lead contamination that alarmed parents across the country.
Attorney General Bill Schuette filed a total of 18 new charges against three employees from the Department of Environmental Quality -- Liane Shekter Smith, Adam Rosenthal and Patrick Cook -- and three from the Department of Health and Human Services -- Nancy Peeler, Corinne Miller and Robert Scott. In addition to the misconduct in office charges, there were willful neglect of duty and various conspiracy counts.
"Each attempted to bury or cover up, downplay or hide info that contradicted their own narrative, their story ... (that) there's nothing wrong with Flint water, it's perfectly safe to use. In essence, these individuals concealed the truth and they were criminally wrong to do so," Schuette said at a news conference in the poor, predominantly black city of nearly 100,000 people 55 miles north of Detroit.
Under the leadership of a state-appointed emergency manager, officials in April 2014 began using the Flint River as Flint's water supply. State officials did not require that the river water be treated for corrosion, and lead from aging pipes and fixtures leached into Flint homes and businesses. The city remained on that water supply for 18 months, despite complaints from residents.
Elevated levels of the toxin were discovered in children. Lead contamination has been linked to learning disabilities and other problems.
Shekter Smith, former head of the state's drinking water office, appeared last month in a Detroit courtroom so her lawyer could assert her constitutional right against self-incrimination amid ongoing investigations. She hadn't yet been charged but was reassigned after the water crisis came to light and her firing was announced in February.
Shekter Smith's attorney, Brian Morley, said Friday that he was surprised she was charged.
"It's disappointing. ... I think we're going to be really hard-pressed to find that she did anything wrong, and certainly nothing criminally wrong," he said.
Neither Cook, Rosenthal nor Peeler immediately responded to phone messages seeking comment. A listed number for Scott couldn't be found and Miller's attorney, Kristen Guinn, declined to discuss the case.
It's the second round of charges stemming from the water crisis.
In January, Schuette announced the appointment of a special counsel to help his office investigate whether laws were broken. In April, two state regulators and a city employee were charged with official misconduct, evidence-tampering and other offenses. At the time, the Republican attorney general guaranteed others would also be charged.
Flint utilities administrator Mike Glasgow struck a deal with prosecutors in May, pledging cooperation in exchange for reduced charges as authorities continue investigating lead contamination of the city's drinking water supply. He entered a no contest plea to one count of willful neglect of duty, a misdemeanor, in exchange for dismissal of a felony charge of tampering with evidence.
Two state Department of Environmental Quality officials also were charged with misconduct, conspiracy, tampering with test results and misdemeanor violations of clean-water law and await preliminary examinations.
In June, Schuette filed a lawsuit against two water engineering companies, saying their negligence caused and exacerbated Flint's lead-tainted water crisis and demanding what could total hundreds of millions of dollars in damages.
Schuette and Andy Arena, the lead investigator who once led Detroit's FBI office, say nobody is off-limits from investigation or prosecution.
"You don't start at the top," Arena said. "We're starting to work our way up, and expanding our investigation. ... The scope of the investigation is progressing exactly how it should be."
The public health emergency was preceded by E. coli detections; resident complaints about color, odor and taste; and high levels of a disinfectant byproduct. A General Motors plant had stopped using the water just six months after the 2014 switch because it was rusting engine parts, and experts suspect a deadly Legionnaires' disease outbreak was tied to the water.
Gov. Rick Snyder has apologized for regulatory failures, and the state environmental agency has said it wasn't required to add an anti-corrosion chemical until after a year of testing.
In March, a state task force that investigated the Flint crisis concluded that it was a "case of environmental injustice." The Michigan Civil Rights Commission is holding public hearings on the matter.
Federal experts now say filtered tap water is safe for everyone to drink in Flint, though some doctors still are recommending bottled water for pregnant women and children ages 5 and younger.
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A court has thrown out a wrongful-death judgment against a longtime suspect in a notorious 1979 missing-child case, since another man ultimately was criminally charged.
Stemming from an unusual request from the parents of long-gone Etan Patz, the reversal closes a fraught chapter in the still-unfinished saga of seeking justice for the 6-year-old. He was one of the first missing children ever pictured on a milk carton.
The longtime suspect, Jose Ramos, was never criminally charged but had been held civilly liable for Etan's death since 2004, when he stopped cooperating with questioning in the civil case.
But the criminal case against the new suspect, Pedro Hernandez, "casts doubt on the validity of the judgment taken against Ramos," Manhattan state Supreme Court Joan Kenney wrote in a ruling filed last week and first reported by the New York Post.
Both Ramos and Hernandez deny killing Etan, who vanished while walking to his school bus stop.
Hernandez faces retrial this fall after a jury deadlocked last year. Jurors weren't told about the wrongful-death judgment against Ramos but did hear defense testimony casting suspicion on him.
Ramos' lawyer, Frank Rothman, said Monday that "it's about time his judgment was vacated." Hernandez' lead lawyer, Harvey Fishbein, declined to comment, as did prosecutors.
Ramos, 73, was extensively investigated and told federal authorities about interacting with a child he was all but sure was Etan on the day he vanished, although Ramos later denied it. Meanwhile, he was convicted of sexually assaulting boys in Pennsylvania and remains in prison on a conviction of violating sex offender registration rules.
"What did you do to my little boy?" Etan's father, Stanley Patz, asked in letters he wrote Ramos for years.
Then Hernandez, 55, of Maple Shade, New Jersey, was charged in 2012 after giving a confession his lawyers later said was false.
Saying Hernandez' trial had persuaded them of his guilt, Etan's parents asked a court this winter to throw out the $2.7 million judgment against Ramos.
"It would have been an injustice" to let the judgment stand, their lawyer, Brian O'Dwyer, said Monday.
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Former German President Richard von Weizsaecker, who urged his country to confront the Nazi past, promoted reconciliation and denounced far-right violence during a 10-year tenure that spanned the reunification of west and east, has died. He was 94.
President Joachim Gauck's office announced Weizsaecker's death on Saturday. Weizsaecker, a patrician and eloquent figure who was president from 1984 to 1994, raised the profile of the largely ceremonial presidency and established himself as a moral conscience for the nation.
Weizsaecker's May 1985 speech marking the 40th anniversary of Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II cemented his reputation. It won widespread praise as an effort to bring fellow Germans to terms with the Holocaust.
"All of us, whether guilty or not, whether young or old, must accept the past. We are all affected by its consequences and liable for it," said Weizsaecker, who served as a regular soldier in Adolf Hitler's army. "Anyone who closes his eyes to the past is blind to the present."
"The 8th of May was a day of liberation," he told the West German parliament. "It freed us all from the system of National Socialist tyranny."
Later that month, the Netherlands' German-born Prince Claus presented the president with a Dutch translation of the speech, telling him that it enabled him finally to acknowledge his roots in a country where resentment of the Nazi occupation remained widespread.
In October 1985, Weizsaecker made the first visit to Israel by a West German head of state. His Israeli counterpart, Chaim Herzog, said the comments had won Weizsaecker "a special place in the history of your people."
"Richard von Weizsaecker stood worldwide for a Germany that had found its way to center of the democratic family of peoples," current President Joachim Gauck said in a message of condolences to Weizsaecker's widow. "He stood for a federal republic that faces up to its past."
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Josh Duhamel secretly dreads the stroke of midnight on New Year's Eve because he always has to get up onstage somewhere and kiss his wife Fergie in front of thousands.
The private star admits he's not a big fan of public displays of affection, but he has little choice but to smooch in front of fans as the New Year starts - because Fergie's usually performing somewhere with her band the Black Eyed Peas, and he has to make the most of the moment.
He explains, "Since I've been with Fergs there's always something to do - they're doing some gig somewhere... starting at midnight, so I usually end up tagging along.
"She's more 'out there' than me; she was born to be a performer... so it's a bit of a dilemma for me because she's out onstage in front of all these people and, at New Year's, she has to give somebody a kiss, so I'm in this predicament, like, 'Do I really have to go out onstage and give her a kiss? I wanna give her a kiss but I don't wanna do it in front of everyone...' So this is like our thing every year.
"We had a bit of a conversation about it and I imagine I'll be going out onstage and giving her a kiss (this year)."
Fergie will be part of the 1oak launch party at the Mirage in Las Vegas on New Year's Eve.
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Canberra United's W-League title defence is back on track after a 1-0 win over Newcastle Jets pulled the champions up into a log-jam near the top of the ladder.
United's win on Saturday combined with draws for the top four sides left five teams separated by a single point behind leaders Perth Glory who are two points clear.
The Glory were unable to extend their lead when held 2-2 by Brisbane Roar, while Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC played out a 1-1 stalemate.
Canberra broke their four-match losing streak in midweek with a hard-fought 2-1 win over the Glory and they recorded another tough win against Newcastle, despite energy-sapping heat in the nation's capital, to climb to equal second with Sydney FC and Brisbane, with Melbourne Victory and Western Sydney one point behind.
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United fullback Nicole Sykes' perfectly timed her maiden W-League goal, hitting the back of the net following a searing run and strike midway through the first half.
The second-from-bottom Jets created several chances but were unable to convert and they lost key midfielder Emily van Egmond to a red card in the second half.
Perth seemed set to extend their lead at the top to five points after taking a 2-0 advantage into halftime in Brisbane.
However, the Roar, showing trademark resilience, hit back through Tameka Butt before Katrina Gorry equalised four minutes from the end.
Sydney FC were denied the chance to join the Glory on top when Melbourne Victory's Maika Ruyter-Hooley equalised following Caitlin Foord's early strike.
Melbourne's Petra Larsson and Amy Jackson were both denied by the woodwork in a match played in temperatures reaching the high 30s before giving way to gusty winds.
Visitors Sydney FC were further hamstrung by the absence of Ellyse Perry with calf soreness while young gun Foord went off with an ankle injury after 20 minutes and goalkeeper Sian McLaren was taken ill just minutes before kick-off.
The Sky Blues have a great opportunity to move top this Saturday when they host Perth Glory.
Western Sydney Wanderers were untroubled against cellar-dwellers Adelaide, hitting four unanswered goals in a record winning margin for the league's newest club.
Sweden's Louise Fors scored a double, with Sarah Walsh and Servet Uzunlar also on the scoresheet.
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Contemporary brands — the stuff that’s not crazy expensive, but isn’t exactly cheap, either — make up a huge part of the fashion industry. (Analysts estimate that mid-priced fashion lines, which include everything from Alexander Wang to Carven, generate close to $10 billion in sales in the U.S. every year.) But back in 1999, when Carin Rodebjer started her namesake label in New York City, there wasn’t a lot happening in the space. Marc by Marc Jacobs didn’t even exist yet.
And, from that pool of indie brands that came up with Rodebjer — Built by Wendy, Mayle, and Rebecca Danenberg come to mind — there are few still standing. Born in Sweden, Rodebjer spent just a couple of years in Manhattan before heading back to Stockholm to develop the business. Ten years on, she decided to make a reverse move, settling with her husband and daughter on the Upper West Side. The Cut spoke with the designer (who hopes to open a New York City store soon) about how she’s managed to keep things moving in the right direction for 15 years.
Do you still split your time between Stockholm and New York?
I live in New York full-time now, actually, but I travel back and forth a lot since the head business is in Sweden. I go back to Europe maybe six times a year.
Where do you produce the collection?
All the production is in Europe: Italy, Portugal, Lithuania. We do a little bit of knitwear in Hong Kong, but the rest is in Europe.
How did you get into design?
I studied pattern-making and sewing in Sweden, like a kind of preparation school. And then I interned for two years at a fashion label called Soot. It was a small company — or quite big, by Swedish standards, but still small. And then I decided to go to New York. My best friend lived here, so I stayed with her. I passed by FIT one day and signed up for classes. Since I knew I wanted to start my own business, I studied a bunch of different things: fabric science, sewing, pattern-making, draping. I did that for a year and a half, but then I dropped out when the business started growing.
This was the late '90s?
Yes — I started selling at a store down in Soho called the Dressing Room. And I sold to a store on Broadway at the time; it was called Antik Batik. I sold a few shirts to Steven Alan as well. And then I started selling in Sweden, and then the business began growing so much that I pursued it full-time and moved back there.
When did you decide to move back to New York?
Two-and-a-half years ago.
That’s still very new.
The first year, I was very naïve. It just disappeared: It’s so much to just open a bank account, get your kid into day care, and, wow. I woke up one year later and felt like I was ten years older.
Why move here? Is it about making the business here in the U.S. bigger, since you’re so established in Scandinavia?
I always want to grow the business wherever, you know. I feel that what we do is very interesting, so I want to expand and get better and bigger. But the main reason was that I wanted to get the experience. I wanted to learn something new, and I felt that I knew the Swedish culture so well. I always have been very intrigued by the U.S., New York especially. Rodebjer, for me, is actually a mix between the high energy of New York and the long-lasting values and tranquility of the island where I grew up.
What neighborhood are you living in?
Upper West Side.
Do you like it?
Yeah [laughs]. People go, like, “Upper West Side?”
Like, “You’re too cool to live in the Upper West Side.”
When you have a child, it’s actually perfect. Because you can choose to go downtown and you can choose whenever you want to have that interesting life, but uptown it’s a different story. On the Upper West Side, nothing happens, really. People just live there. I like the realness.
It sounds like the industry started paying attention to your designs early on, but when did the line transform from a passion project to a legitimate business?
In the beginning, I didn’t know that it was going to grow. I just loved what I was doing, so I was happy that some people were buying it. It was around 2005 that I realized that it was getting out of hand. Well, not out of hand, but bigger than myself somehow. I had to rethink what I was doing — it was a bit of an awakening. Now it’s a real business with lots of investors and board people and employees.
How has your aesthetic changed over the years?
I think it has always stayed the same, in that I want to make clothing to live in. I want to be able to get on with my life and still look and feel good. Sometimes I get the impression that people design so much out of looks that they forget the feeling of it. For me, it’s always been about how it feels as a woman. There have always been more dimensions to it than the actual look. It’s the feel … it’s holistic in a way.
What is your process? Do you start with a mood board or an image?
We build on the last collection, because the line [consists of] a lot of ideas that grow over time, but we always start with a mood board. We had the architect Eileen Gray on this season’s board. We took the freedom to explore her life.
What’s next for Rodebjer? I hear a New York store is in the works.
We have two stores, both in Stockholm. But I would love to open a store here — that’s the plan. That would be a dream. So we’re focusing on opening a store in New York and continuing to grow in the rest of the world, because we’ve only focused on Sweden and the U.S. in the last years. We have a lot of demand from the rest of the world as well, so I’m actually making the organization ready to handle what’s about to happen.
You mention that you have investors. At what point did you decide that was the right move, and how did you find the right partners?
That’s where people usually have trouble, if they take on the wrong ones. I was very fortunate because my cousin — a trained doctor who ended up going into finance — was the first one who invested. And then in 2011, he helped me find other investors as well.
So you waited more than ten years to raise capital.
I took my time to grow. It’s been 20 years since my first internship. You can never know everything, but I feel like I know a lot.
You decided to launch your own label at the beginning of your career. What made you decide to do that instead of going to work at a big company?
I think for me, personally, I’ve always had this sense that I have to be independent. I don’t know where that comes from, but I’ve always felt that I wanted to build my own platform. Sometimes it’s good to be naïve, because then you actually go through with it. I think a lot of people start working and then realize how complicated [starting a company] is and then don’t want to do it. But I think I would advise people to actually work somewhere else to see if they like it, because it’s good to make all the mistakes on someone else’s [dime]. And you always make mistakes in the beginning.
Photographer: Eric T. White; Make up and Hair:Tiffany Saxby using CHANEL/ Weleda skin care and T3 tools; Manicure: Casandra Lamar using MAC Cosmetics at Factory Downtown
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Scientists at Stanford University School of Medicine have used the CRISPR gene editing tool to repair the gene that causes sickle cell disease in stem cells from diseased patients, paving the way for a potential cure for the disease, which affects up to 5 million people globally.
"What we've finally shown is that we can do it. It's not just on the chalkboard," said Dr. Matthew Porteus, senior author of the study published in the journal Nature.
With the study, and unpublished findings from his lab, Porteus believes his team has amassed enough proof to start planning the first human clinical trial using the powerful CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing system to correct the genetic mutation that causes sickle cell disease.
"We think we have a complete data set to present to the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) to say we've done all pre-clinical experiments to show this is ready for a clinical trial," Porteus told Reuters by phone.
CRISPR-Cas9 has quickly become the preferred method of gene editing in research labs because of its ease of use compared with older techniques.
CRISPR works as a type of molecular scissors that can selectively trim away unwanted parts of the genome, and replace it with new stretches of DNA.
Research using the powerful technique is plowing ahead even as researchers from the University of California and the Broad Institute battle for control over the CRISPR patent. Oral arguments in the case are expected on Dec. 6 at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office in Alexandria, Va.
In sickle cell disease, the body makes mutant, sickle-shaped hemoglobin, the protein in red blood cells that carries oxygen to the body's tissues. It is caused by a single mutation in a gene that makes a hemoglobin protein.
In a study published last month in Science Translational Medicine, a team from the University of California, Berkeley, and colleagues used the CRISPR gene editing tool to snip out the diseased gene and deliver a new stretch of DNA to correct the mutation in human stem cells.
In that study, some 25 percent of blood-forming cells were corrected.
In the Stanford study, Porteus and colleagues took a different approach. They used CRISPR to snip the gene, but they used a harmless virus to introduce the repair mechanism into cells.
After a series of tests in healthy cells, the team tested the gene editing system in blood-forming cells from four patients with sickle cell disease. They showed they could correct the mutation in 30 to 50 percent of these diseased cells.
Sixteen weeks after they injected the cells into young mice, the team found the cells were still thriving in the bone marrow.
Porteus said the findings were very encouraging because prior studies have shown that if you can correct mutations in 10 percent of cells, that should create enough to cure the disease.
Stanford is now scaling up its laboratory processes to support human trials.
The process will involve using chemotherapy to wipe out a patient's blood system but not their immune system, as is done in a stem cell transplant.
Then, the team would inject the patient's own corrected stem cells, which the researchers hope would engraft into the bone marrow and produce healthy blood cells.
Porteus has equity interest in CRISPR Therapeutics of Cambridge, Massachusetts, but he said the sickle cell work has been independent of it. The university has built a cell manufacturing plant for this purpose.
"We hope to develop the entire process here at Stanford," he said.
Porteus said the team plans to make an initial submission to the FDA in the next few months to map out the clinical trial, and hopes to treat the first patient in 2018.
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Just the other day, while walking down 42nd Street in New York City, I passed by a middle-aged man, down on his luck, sitting on the sidewalk with a handwritten cardboard sign next to him. Now this sight in itself is unfortunately not unusual in New York or any other urban center. However, this guy was clearly different, possibly even a marketing genius. His sign read “I listen to your problems… 3 dollars.”
His problem was that I didn’t have three dollars in my pocket. So I wandered down the street, imagining that in a month’s time that guy will be a millionaire and franchising out his sidewalk therapy business all across the country.
Three dollars to listen to your problems? If anything the guy was seriously under pricing his service. He obviously hasn’t dealt with our health care system recently. If I had had three dollars, I would’ve gladly paid him, sat down and told him this:
The other week I managed to somewhat fracture my fibula while running. Frankly, prior to this incident, I wasn’t aware that I possessed a fibula or two. For those of you who haven’t attended medical school, the fibula connects your ankle bone to your spankula and basically allows your sprocket to move up and down.
Anyway, I was traveling at the time and didn’t bother to see a doctor, despite my ankle swelling up and a certain level of pain occurring whenever I engaged in strenuous activities like standing or sitting.
Once home, I decided to visit my family doctor, a genial fellow who undoubtedly could give me solid fibula advice. He took a couple pictures using what he called an “X-ray machine” and declared it slightly fractured.
Here’s where it all went wrong. After settling my bill with a small pig and some tasty apricot preserves, my well-meaning family doctor suggested I take the X-ray pictures, drive to the big city and go to an orthopedic practice where they could render a second opinion.
I drove 30 minutes to a corporate office block, found the orthopedic practice and registered at the reception desk with one of the several administrative assistants sitting behind the counter. It vaguely reminded me of an office steno pool from the old days…I remember thinking “…my, this is quite the busy orthopedic practice. I wonder what all these office folk do round here?”
After waiting for 20 minutes in the lobby, I was walked into a small examination room. Four minutes later I was done and walking out of the office. Literally…the doctor, an orthopedic surgeon, entered the room, introduced himself, we chatted amiably for a minute, I explained what had happened, he sat opposite me looking at my general fibula area, stared at the X-ray, declared it okay and suggested I come back in a few weeks for another visit. Four minutes.
Shortly thereafter, the postman delivered a statement from my insurance company. My wife, as a rule, handles all our financial and administrative activities because, as a rule, she is far smarter than I am. I’m sitting in the family room drinking a martini and admiring my fibula’s recovery when she walks in and asks “…did you have orthopedic surgery?” “Why no,” I respond. My wife and I often have this sort of witty repartee. It’s like a Nick and Nora film around my house.
Turns out, after my four minute fibula consultation, during which the doctor felt the pulse in my foot but otherwise avoided any direct contact, his army of administrative assistants decided to file paperwork with my insurance company using the code for orthopedic surgery, thusly resulting in a charge of almost $1,400 U.S. dollars. What a load of crap.
Today I got a call from my insurance company. We had asked them to investigate the charge and ensure we weren’t the victims of some orthopedic hijinx. Apparently, they reviewed the charge and the code used by the doctors office and decided everything was A-OK.
I sputtered on the phone about overpricing and how bureaucracy had created a massive army of employees devoted to navigating paperwork and the insanity of charging $1,400 to glance at my fibula. I wrapped up my almost incoherent rant to unknown insurance company phone guy by blaming our national debt and general poor economic situation on a health care system that has grown inefficient, insane and soon to be insolvent. He was, if anything, completely disinterested. I decided against explaining to him my theory of how big government is basically to blame for most of our aches and pains.
I was told not to worry. The insurance company would only reimburse the doctor’s office $740 dollars, the rest could be paid out of my pocket. Somehow that was supposed to make me feel better.
So now I’m writing a check for $620 dollars to cover a couple minutes in a doctor’s office during which I was told “looks fine… take it easy for a while.”
Here’s what really hurts... I could’ve gotten that advice for $3 dollars on the streets of New York City.
Mike Baker is a former CIA covert operations officer. He is president of Diligence LLC, a global intelligence and security firm.
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They normalize the experience of being used for financial gain? Isn’t that slavery? Who would say such a thing? Is that an actual quote? These are the words of Ms. Withelma “T” Ortiz Walker Pettigrew as she testified before Congress in 2013 on how to prevent sex trafficking of youth in foster care. Now only in college, T spent the first 18 years of her life in the foster care system, and for seven of those years she “was a child being sexually trafficked on the streets, internet, strip clubs, massage parlors and even in the back of express papers.” Words like those above should never have to come out of a child’s mouth. Never.
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If you ask T, she would be the first to tell you that sex trafficking is a heinous crime – one committed by heinous people – and that the foster care system in this country does not do enough to care for the youth residing in it.
In 2010, Los Angeles officials reported that 59 percent of juveniles arrested for prostitution were in the foster care system. More recently, in 2013, 60 percent of child sex trafficking victims recovered in an FBI nationwide raid from over 70 cities were children involved with the foster care system or group homes at some point. In 2012, Connecticut reported 88 child victims of sex trafficking. Eighty-six of them were involved with the child welfare system, and most reported abuse while in foster care. With all the various numbers from all the various studies, there is still only one number that we need to worry about: one. One victim of this atrocious crime is too many.
While the connection of foster care to child sex trafficking victims is not definite, the current foster care system does not do enough to protect those living in it or help them prepare for normalcy once they leave it. Some child welfare policies may have unintentional negative effects on the well-being of the children living under them. Rules and policies that inhibit youth from participating in sports, obtaining a driver’s license, or even getting a part-time job may contribute to a young person’s isolation and inability to gain “meaningful relationships or attachments,” no matter how well-intentioned those policies may be.
There is no doubt that the system and its consequences are problems that need fixing.
Over the past year, the U.S. House of Representatives has been working to craft bills that aim to prevent child sex trafficking and improve the lives of foster care youth. On Wednesday, July 23, those bills were passed with sweeping bipartisan support. Each of the eight bills is an important, effective piece of legislation that goes far to change the atmosphere that has been plaguing the foster care system, equip the federal government to combat the horrific crimes of human and sex trafficking, and/or provide for the proper treatment of victims of sex trafficking.
The bottom line is that human trafficking is nothing more than modern-day slavery. That it has come to be associated with foster care youth is deplorable. This practice is the buying and selling of human beings with the average age of entry into servitude between 11 and 14. Through exploitation, it reduces an individual’s value to that of an object. Sickeningly, because of a foster child’s vulnerable nature, they are heavily sought after by the industry and are targeted by criminals who run sex trafficking rings. We must work to help those most at risk of falling victim to this evil crime.
The scourge of human trafficking runs deep and is difficult to root out. By no means does that mean it cannot be addressed or solved. Through legislation passed in Congress and support and outreach from groups like Concerned Women for America, we can bring this heinous crime to light, uproot traffickers, and make sure that children like T find normalcy in loving, caring homes.
Penny Young Nance is president and CEO of Concerned Women for America, the nation’s largest women’s public policy organization. She is the author of the forthcoming book "Feisty and Feminine: A Rallying Cry for Conservative Women" (Zondervan 2016).
Republican Vicky Hartzler represents Missouri's Fourth Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives. She serves on the House Select Investigative Panel for Infant Lives and co-chairs the House Values Action Team.
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U.S. meat giant Tyson Foods Inc. said on Monday that fiscal fourth-quarter earnings more than doubled, boosted by the acquisition of beef and pork processor IBP Inc. and higher chicken prices.
Tyson, which closed a deal to acquire IBP Inc. at the end of the quarter to create the largest U.S. meat company, reported earnings of $47.5 million, or 22 cents a diluted share, for the period ended Sept. 29 including IBP, compared with $18.0 million, or 8 cents a share, a year ago. Tyson earned 20 cents a share excluding the IBP purchase.
Analysts' estimates ranged from 20 cents per share to 21 cents, with a consensus at 20 cents, according to market research firm Thomson Financial/First Call.
Fourth-quarter sales, including IBP businesses, rose to $5.09 billion from $1.84 billion a year ago.
Tyson acquired 50.1 percent of IBP stock on Aug. 3 and the remainder at the end of the quarter, so the fourth-quarter and full-year results include slightly more than half of IBP's results for the nine weeks ended Sept. 29, the company said.
``The quarterly numbers are good and they actually raised earnings guidance at a time when some analysts feared that they would lower earnings guidance,'' Prudential Securities food analyst John McMillin said. ``It looks like a favorable release from a company that hasn't had many favorable releases in the last five years.''
Tyson raised its fourth-quarter earnings forecast in September and raised its fiscal 2002 forecast range by 5 cents a share on Monday, McMillin said.
Tyson said it expects fiscal first-quarter diluted earnings of 22 cents a share to 27 cents a share, and fiscal 2002 earnings of 95 cents a share to $1.05. Fiscal 2002 forecasts include 100 percent of IBP's operations.
Analysts' fiscal 2002 estimates ranged from 63 cents a share to $1.00, with a consensus at 86 cents, according to First Call. The first-quarter consensus estimate is 18 cents a share.
For the fourth quarter, Tyson reported beef sales of $2.03 billion, chicken sales of $1.91 billion, pork sales of $508.7 million, prepared foods sales of $633.4 million and other sales of $13.1 million.
Tyson won a bidding war for IBP late last year from No. 1 pork producer Smithfield Foods Inc. Tyson has about 28 percent of the U.S. beef market, 23 percent of the chicken market and 18 percent of the pork market.
Smithfield has since made several acquisitions to shore up its beef business. The latest acquisition, announced in early November, would make Smithfield the No. 4 U.S. beef processor.
For the year, Tyson reported earnings of $87.8 million, or 40 cents a share, compared with earnings of $151.2 million, or 67 cents, in the prior year. Sales rose to $10.75 billion for the year from $7.41 billion last year.
Shares of Tyson rose 10 cents to $10.49 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. The shares have risen about 1 percent since the attacks on the United States. The Standard & Poor's Food index is essentially flat since then.
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Six U.S. lawmakers hope to ease tensions with North Korea in the first visit by American officials since a crisis began last fall over the country's secret nuclear program.
They will tell North Korean officials that economic aid and trade lie ahead if Pyongyang abandons its nuclear program and improves relations with the United States, said the delegation leader, Rep. Curt Weldon (search), R-Pa.
"We are on a fact-finding mission to open doors for dialogue," Weldon said at Andrews Air Force base shortly before leaving Wednesday.
Weldon stressed that the lawmakers weren't traveling as Bush administration envoys and wouldn't negotiate. He said the administration neither encouraged nor tried to prevent the trip. On Tuesday, the lawmakers discussed North Korea with Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly (search).
"This is not an attempt to undermine or circumvent the president's message that the nuclear crisis can be resolved only through a multilateral effort," Weldon said earlier in an interview. North Korea wants one-on-one talks with the United States.
State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said the lawmakers were not carrying a message from the administration. "We, of course, look forward to hearing from them on their return," he said.
The lawmakers expected to arrive in Pyongyang on Friday and leave Sunday for South Korea. They expect to meet with North Korea's No. 2 leader, Kim Yong Nam, but were told they would not meet with top leader Kim Jong Il (search).
The talks represent a rare contact between the United States and isolated, impoverished North Korea. President Bush last year included North Korea in his axis of evil, along with Iraq and Iran.
Poor relations further deteriorated in October when North Korea, after being confronted by Kelly, admitted it had a clandestine, uranium-based nuclear program. U.S. officials believe North Korea already has one or two nuclear weapons and could develop more.
Washington said the program violated a 1994 agreement and cut off oil supplies promised under the accord. North Korea then announced it was reactivating an older plutonium program and expelled U.N. inspectors.
There has been little diplomatic contact. In January, North Korea's deputy U.N. ambassador, Han Song Ryol, met with New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. North Korean diplomats met with U.S. officials in Beijing in April and demanded a long list of concessions in exchange for disarmament.
Weldon said he had planned the trip for more than a year, before the crisis developed. He has been in contact with Han and "the trip has been on and off 20 times," he said.
The No. 2 member of the House Armed Services Committee, Weldon is a maverick who has often stepped into tense diplomatic situations. He has been a frequent visitor to Russia, dating back to the Cold War, and wrote an influential plan to foster U.S.-Russian partnerships.
Weldon said he would tell North Korean officials about opportunities for energy projects and humanitarian assistance. But Weldon also said "there is a line drawn in the sand: Your nuclear program must end unequivocally."
A member of the delegation, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, said he hoped the visit would open a dialogue, "something besides a lot of the saber-rattling that's been pretty much the trademark of the administration."
Another Democrat on the trip, Rep. Eliot Engel of New York, said the visit could help break the impasse over whether negotiations should be bilateral or involve other nations.
He said if the congressional meeting is seen as bilateral, "perhaps that gives the North Koreans the hook to say that they have met with a U.S. delegation face-to-face with no other countries there, and then proceed to [multilateral talks]."
North Korea says the dispute is with the United States and talks should not involve other nations. The United States says North Korea is a regional problem and talks should involve countries that could be threatened by its nuclear program, such as South Korea and Japan.
The lawmakers expect to visit a school, a factory, a church and a computer center. They have also asked to visit North Korea's main nuclear complex at Yongbyon.
Other members of the delegation are Reps. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., Jeff Miller, R-Fla. and Solomon Ortiz, D-Texas.
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The Army's 3rd Infantry Division, which helped lead the charge to Baghdad at the outset of the war, will return next year and become the first Army division to serve three tours in Iraq.
More than 3 1/2 years into the war, the Army and Marine Corps are straining to keep a steady flow of combat and support forces to Iraq while giving the troops sufficient time between deployments for rest and retraining.
Both services are far short of their goal of providing two years between deployments; the 3rd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry, for example, will have spent barely more than 12 months at home when it returns next year. The same is true for the division's 1st Brigade, which officials have said is scheduled to deploy again in January.
The 3rd Infantry, based at Fort Stewart, Ga., is among several units — totaling 57,000 troops — identified by the Pentagon on Friday for deployment in a fresh rotation of forces starting in January. The announcement does not presume any change in troop levels, nor is any major change expected for at least several months.
The announcement comes as some congressional Democrats, who are poised to take control of the House and Senate, continue to press for a substantial reduction of U.S. troops in Iraq, and a timetable for that drawdown.
There are about 141,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. Gen. John Abizaid, the top U.S. commander for the Middle East, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Wednesday that he believes troop levels ought to remain fairly steady for the time being, although he said all options are being considered, including a force increase.
Abizaid told the committee that the Army and Marine Corps are not big enough to sustain a substantial increase in Iraq, although he said adding 20,000 troops for a short period was possible.
The Army has managed to keep up its pace of deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan in part by tapping brigades that have been newly created as part of a top-to-bottom reorganization of Army divisions. The 4th Brigade of the 1st Infantry Division, for example, is on the list of units scheduled to deploy to Iraq early next year. That brigade, based at Fort Riley, Kan., was created in recent months and is now at the National Training Center at Fort Irwin, Calif., for an intensive round of final preparations for the Iraq deployment.
Also selected for the next troop rotation is the 173rd Airborne Brigade, based at Vicenza, Italy. Its paratroopers jumped into Iraq at the beginning of the war to open a northern front, and just last February and March the unit's two airborne infantry battalions returned from a full year of combat in Afghanistan.
The newly formed 4th Brigade of the 2nd Infantry Division, from Fort Lewis, Wash., also is part of the next rotation, the Pentagon said, as is the 1st Brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division, from Fort Bragg, N.C.
Combined, the Pentagon announced a combat force totaling 20,000 soldiers, including the 3rd Infantry Division headquarters. In addition, spokesman Bryan Whitman said a support force of 37,000 troops — of whom 27,000 are active duty and 10,000 are National Guard and Reserve — will also deploy in 2007.
They will replace a portion of the current force in Iraq. Additional replacements will be announced next year, Whitman said.
Also, about 1,500 soldiers from the South Carolina Army National Guard's 218th Brigade Combat Team have been told they will deploy to Afghanistan early next year to help train the Afghan army, Whitman said.
The Pentagon also announced Friday that a soldier killed in Baghdad on Tuesday was an Army colonel — the first of that rank to be killed since the war began in March 2003. He was identified as Thomas H. Felts, Sr., of Sandston, Va. William W. Wood, 44, who was killed in Iraq in October 2005, had been approved for promotion to colonel, but at the time of his death he was a lieutenant colonel.
Felts, 45, was assigned to the Command and General Staff College at the School of Advanced Military Studies at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., and was in Baghdad as leader of a team advising the Iraqi army. He died of injuries suffered from a roadside bomb, along with Army Spc. Justin R. Garcia, 26, of Elmhurst, N.Y.
Relatively few U.S. military advisers have been killed in Iraq, although they may face greater dangers if the Pentagon follows through on a plan to expand the number of advisers working alongside Iraqi soldiers and police.
A Marine commander said Friday that he has already begun expanding adviser teams in his area of Iraq's western Anbar province.
Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon by videoconference from his headquarters in Fallujah, Col. Lawrence D. Nicholson said the teams have been doubled in size and he has proposed doubling them yet again.
"We think that is clearly the way ahead," he said, adding that the Iraqis have proven themselves to be good "mimics," emulating the tactics and procedures used by the Americans to be more effective against insurgents.
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Weekend avalanches killed five people in Montana, Utah and Idaho, with one bruised survivor traveling miles by snowmobile and on foot to reach help, authorities said.
In Montana's Big Belt Mountains, the bodies of two snowmobilers caught in an avalanche were found by searchers early Sunday and removed by helicopter later in the day.
That avalanche happened Saturday at the base of Mount Baldy, about 20 miles from Townsend. A survivor traveled the 15 or 20 miles back to the trailhead, initially by snowmobile and then on foot after the machine became stuck, Lewis and Clark County Sheriff Cheryl Leidle said.
Upon reaching a pickup truck at the trailhead, he used a cell phone to call for help.
"It would appear the avalanche drove them into a grove of trees downhill from the avalanche itself," Leidle said.
The names of the three men were not immediately released. Leidle described them as friends in their 20s from the Townsend area.
In Utah, two snowmobilers died in separate avalanches on Saturday.
Zachary Holmes, 16, of Farr West, was buried by an avalanche estimated to be 300 feet wide near Tower Mountain in the Uinta Mountains, about 14 miles southeast of Heber City, the Wasatch County sheriff's office said.
Holmes was wearing a helmet and an avalanche beacon, deputy Michael Graves said. Following the beacon's signal, his cousins found him and dug him out of the snow. He later died at the University of Utah Hospital, authorities said.
Earlier Saturday, a snowmobiler on Signal Peak in southwestern Utah triggered the avalanche that killed him, the Sevier County sheriff's office said.
That man, whose name was not released, was climbing the back side of the peak when the avalanche buried him in an estimated 8 feet of snow, authorities said.
In Idaho, the Bonneville County Sheriff's Office in Idaho Falls confirmed the death of a Utah man in an avalanche near Palisade Peak. His name was not immediately available.
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United Continental (NYSE:UAL) raised the majority of its domestic fares by $2 to $5 one-way earlier this week, and JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts say they view that as a sign demand is starting to pick up.
Jamie Baker of JPMorgan said it is uncertain whether the increase will hold, but noted a hike from one of the largest U.S. carriers shows that demand trends are “sufficiently robust at the moment.”
“That, in our view, is more relevant than whether this particular increase takes root,” he said.
In many cases, if a big carrier fails to match a broad-based fare increase, others will rescind theirs.
The move comes on the heels of what Baker called a “successful” one-way fare increase by Southwest (NYSE:LUV) last Wednesday of $5 that sparked a flurry of other price jumps.
Fare activity has picked up in February, starting on Feb. 6 when United initiated a $5 one-way increase in Florida, Arizona and Nevada. Southwest, after initially stalling and briefly rescinding its price hike, finally went through with the higher fare on Feb. 9.
“While admittedly stopping short of a full, across-the-board initiative, Southwest’s effort nonetheless represented the carrier’s first substantive increase in 2012, in our view, and as expected, it was fully matched by competitors over the subsequent days,” Baker said in the note.
Those efforts were followed by “broad industry matching,” the analyst said, as JetBlue (NASDAQ:JBLU) expanded the increase across its entire full domestic network and Southwest raised medium- and long-haul domestic fares in Southwest and Airtran markets by $5 one-way.
U.S. Airways (NYSE:LCC) has also raised ticket prices.
The broad-based initiative marks the second in 2012, and if it proves successful, it will be the second success story since October 2011, the analyst said.
It may “prove an equity catalyst despite crude’s recent rise,” Baker said.
Higher oil prices have forced carriers to cut back on capacity and raise fares in an effort to lower heavy expenses and soften the pressure on margins.
Follow Jennifer Booton on Twitter at @Jbooton
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What if, instead of operating a variety of anti-poverty programs, the government simply mailed every poor person in America a check big enough to lift them out of poverty? That, says the Cato Institute’s Michael Tanner, would make more sense than what we do now – and, he says, we’d still have money left over.
Michael Tanner, CATO Institute senior fellow.
Here’s Tanner’s math: By his count, the federal government spends more than $668 billion a year on a total of 126 anti-poverty programs, including those that address housing, hunger, health care, and cash assistance. They range from TANF (Temporary Assistance to Needy Families), which most people associate with traditional welfare, to much smaller programs for Indian tribes, at-risk youth, and others. If you divide Tanner’s total by the roughly 46 million people with incomes below the poverty line, you get nearly $15,000 for every poor man, woman, and child in the U.S.
Tanner acknowledges that poor individuals don’t receive that much money, and that’s his point: government spending isn’t laser-targeted to those most in need. In fact, he says, “throwing money at the problem has neither reduced poverty nor made the poor self-sufficient. It is time to re-evaluate our approach to fighting poverty.”
You’ve taken a fair amount of heat for saying that America should “focus less on making poverty more comfortable.” What do you mean by that? Is poverty ever comfortable?
Poverty is never a good thing. But most of the programs we have to combat poverty are based on taking people who are in poverty and giving them a little more income so their poverty doesn’t feel quite as bad. Instead, we should be focused on how to we get more people out of poverty.
What do you think we are doing wrong?
The problem is that our welfare programs aren’t targeted at the right things: education, pregnancy prevention, and job creation. They’re targeted at giving people who are poor the resources to live in poverty.
We know that if you drop out of high school you’re likely to be poor. If you graduate from college, your chances of escaping poverty are much greater.
We know that if you’re a woman, don’t get pregnant if you’re not married. That’s not a moral judgment, it’s an economic one. It’s simply more difficult to raise a child if you have one income rather than two.
And get a job, any job, even a low-wage job, and stick with it. Even a low-paying job is better than no job at all. People are more likely to move out of poverty if they have a low-paying job than if they are on welfare.
And we need to create more jobs. The fact is, we still have an anti-job atmosphere. Too many taxes, too many regulations. We don’t do a very good job of creating an environment that’s going to create more jobs.
What do we do about the millions of people who are in poverty right now? They are poor, they don’t have skills, they don’t have a good education, they don’t have or can’t get a job. Do we pull the safety net out from under them?
We should target our aid to those people who need the help the most. We have created a situation in which there are a certain number of people who are not going to be able to become an economically viable family unit anytime soon, and we probably have to support them in the short term. In the long term, however, we want to give people in the future more of an opportunity to avoid poverty and to get out of poverty.
It’s unfair to compare my approach to utopia. Let’s compare it to the real world and in the real world, the approach I’m talking about would mean fewer poor people than there are today. Would there be zero? No. I don’t know if a society in the history of the world has ever had zero. Poverty in many ways is the natural condition of man. Throughout most of mankind’s history, most people were poor. The question is, how do you create more prosperity?
People on my side of this have often appeared to be hard-hearted, by arguing on a dollars-and-cents basis. But you shouldn’t measure compassion by inputs. You measure by outcomes. And by that measure, we’re failing. And the burden is on the poor, who are the ones suffering in poverty.
So you think it would be more compassionate to blow up and restructure the system?
It’s not fun to live in poverty. Poor people don’t want to be poor. Most poor people would like to work. Most poor people would like to be non-poor. But we’re not giving them that opportunity. The goal should be that each person gets to achieve their full potential. Most people trapped in the welfare system are not getting to do that.
It was Ronald Reagan who said, we fought a war on poverty and poverty won. Do you agree with that?
Let’s put it this way: We are certainly not beating poverty. We may have had a draw but that’s not where we want to be.
Editor's note: This interview has been edited and condensed.
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Pay TV company Foxtel has signed Acer as the sole provider of set-top box managed services for itself and Austar. Foxtel had been outsourcing its set-top box maintenance functions to Acer for the past five years.
But in light of Foxtel's recent purchase of regional competitor Austar, the new contract, which runs for four years, will have Acer's role cover Austar as well.
Managed by Acer's managed solutions group, the vendor will be in charge of quality assurance, repair, refurbishment, warehousing services, and logistics support for Foxtel's and Austar's set-top boxes.
Foxtel is trying to consolidate its supply chain and service cost to bring down operational expenditure. It's also currently in the process of integrating Austar into the business.
According to Acer, the new arrangement with Foxtel will make the vendor the largest electronics service provider in Australia.
Acer traditionally services personal computer products, but has adapted its operations to accommodate for the Foxtel deal. As a result, it has made further investments in its Regents Park facility in Sydney. Acer now has over 140 staff dedicated to servicing Foxtel.
Acer will have to stick to strict key performance indicators as part of the contract with Foxtel and set-top boxes will go through quality assurance processes before being shipped to customers.
The vendor hopes that the experience it gains through the new contract with Foxtel will help it expand its managed services business.
"Acer is in a unique position in the managed services marketplace," Acer Operations Director Andrew Bosch said in a statement. "We have extensive in-house and in-field capabilities. We can tailor these to a customer's needs, and deliver a broad range of flexible, reliable, efficient, and effective solutions for customers."
The vendor will not comment on how much the new contract is worth.
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Aircraft manufacturer Airbus on Monday unveiled its Concept Plane, an "engineer's dream" machine that envisions the future of air transport in 2030.
The plane imagines what the airplane would look like "if advancements in existing technologies continue apace," with consideration to the design of aircraft materials, aerodynamics, cabins and engines.
The aircraft has long, slim wings, semi-embedded engines, a U-shaped tail and a lightweight, "intelligent" body that all target greater fuel efficiency, fewer emissions and less noise.
The plane was announced at the 2010 Farnborough International Airshow.
"It's not a real aircraft and all the technologies it features, though feasible, are not likely to come together in the same manner," said Airbus executive vice president of engineering Charles Champion in a statement. "Here we are stretching our imagination and thinking beyond our usual boundaries."
It's an honorable goal. The airline industry rates pretty high in terms of adverse environmental impact, and the future of green transportation often overlooks the plane for cars, buses, streetcars and high-speed trains to reduce urban congestion.
But planes are still necessary for long-haul transcontinental travel, and rethinking them can make a big difference for countries and corporations alike.
A look into the future, by Airbus:
Seats made from ecological, self-cleaning materials that change shape for a snug fit
Walls that become see-through at the touch of a button, allowing 360-degree views.
Holographic projections of virtual decors, allowing travelers to transform their private cabin into an office or bedroom.
Use of green energy sources such as fuel cells, solar panels or even our own body heat to power some aircraft systems.
Rethinking the flight itself: aircraft may even fly in formation like birds to reduce drag, fuel burn and emissions.
Here's some of what futurologist Robin Mannings had to say in the company's official report (.pdf):
Research in nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive science are providing a growing set of opportunities. Some examples include; new light and strong composite materials, electronic plastics, fuels created directly from growing plants (that are effectively scrubbing the atmosphere of unwanted carbon), smarter computer and avionics systems and transport informatics. A key challenge will be to bring the futures of new technology, of good design and innovative business together. For example; a future aircraft will need to be much more fuel efficient and need radical approaches to engines, airframe and avionics. The needs of passengers will require inspired cabin designs with the latest display and entertainment systems and new efficient boarding methods will be needed to help older passengers. The current businesses of airlines could change to be fully integrated with other parts of the transport system to minimise delays and hassle and maximise efficiency. Passengers will demand flexibility and an end to the hassles associated with flying. Intelligent transportation systems could organise optimal journeys so that all waste, error and delay are accounted for so that the traveller need only follow real time instructions (delivered by a personal wireless communications device that allows detailed tracking). Airports are travel bottlenecks so a future challenge will be to find innovations to streamline the part airports and aeroplanes play in multimodal travel. People do not want endless concrete, endless traffic queues, overcrowded rail journeys and endless delays, queues and the hauling of luggage. Self guided and remotely piloted aircraft are currently being pioneered by the military so perhaps the current model of human pilot and human air-traffic controllers may be redesigned. It seems unlikely that a passenger plane would have no pilot but a freight plane could be a candidate. Certainly if the demand for travel increases and the skies are hugely crowded, then radical new approaches to safe control and guidance will be needed. Many advances in navigation, wireless and sensor technology are predicted and research into machine learning and cognitive sciences are suggesting that in 40 years, there may be few human tasks that could not be performed by a machine. The goal of sustainability will need new approaches to materials, recycling and manufacturing. As well as fuel efficiency, all parts of the lifecycle of aircraft will need to take account of their
environmental impact. Recycling and re-engineering may be as important as the initial manufacturing processes. Looking to the future we can learn many lessons from nature. Biomimicry inspired mankind to follow birds into the skies and it is likely that we can copy many other tricks that nature has evolved. Smart new materials should enable designers to create airframes that are as light as possible. Smart on the outside to aid aerodynamic and operational efficiency and smart on the inside to maximise passenger comfort and enjoyment. Electronics and computing will be integrated into the designs and it can be envisaged that computer chips will be everywhere and in almost everything.
An exciting future, indeed.
This post was originally published on Smartplanet.com
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Yahoo will encrypt all information that moves between its data centers by the end of the first quarter of 2014, a move triggered by revelations that the NSA directly taps into the company's—as well as Google's—main communication links.
Under the NSA's MUSCULAR project, which is jointly operated with its British counterpart the Government Communications Headquarters, the agency is able to copy entire data flows across fiber optic cables carrying information between data centers, the Washington Post reported in October. The program's existence was in documents leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden.
While Google and Yahoo use state-of-the-art tech to keep their data centers secure, the data that flows between them is sent over fiber optic cables owned by Internet providers. Google
The company will offer users an option to encrypt all data flow to and from Yahoo by the end of the first quarter of 2014 and plans to work closely with its international mail partners to ensure co-branded accounts are https-enabled, Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer wrote in a corporate blog post on Tumblr yesterday.
From Mayer:
As you know, there have been a number of reports over the last six months about the U.S. government secretly accessing user data without the knowledge of tech companies, including Yahoo. I want to reiterate what we have said in the past: Yahoo has never given access to our data centers to the NSA or to any other government agency. Ever. There is nothing more important to us than protecting our users’ privacy. To that end, we recently announced that we will make Yahoo Mail even more secure by introducing https (SSL - Secure Sockets Layer) encryption with a 2048-bit key across our network by January 8, 2014. Today we are announcing that we will extend that effort across all Yahoo products.
Google is also actively updating its network to 2048-bit encryption, a rollout that has been accelerated since June as disclosures of NSA's activities continued to be revealed.Meanwhile, requests from governments for Google's user information has increased by more than 100 percent since 2010, the search engine said in a blog post in November. The U.S. government far outpaced other countries with 10, 918 requests between January and June 2013. India was a distant second with 2,691 requests.
This post was originally published on Smartplanet.com
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Soulja Boy Tell ‘Em’s 2013 hasn’t exactly been the smoothest year of his career, or personal life for that matter. Just when we thought SB would close out his 365 on a quiet note, a woman by the name of Diamond Shantaniece MacKay (not to be confused with on-again-off-again girlfriend, also named Diamond) slapped the 23-year-old with legal docs claiming her fathered her 5-year-old son.
MacKay’s revelation is one of many awkward incidents the Atlanta native has gotten himself into as of late. On a career front, Soulja Boy dropped a few projects (including the King Soulja mixtape in March, and an All Black EP) yet hasn’t been able to recapture the momentum of some of his earlier work. We have to give him credit for trying, but that recognition doesn’t come without acknowledging a few missteps, bad decisions, and a tattoo that he should’ve probably thought through a litter harder.
In honor of 2013 creeping out the door, take a look back at some of Soulja Boy’s most struggalicious moments from the last 350 plus days.
Hopefully, 2014 will be better.
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Photos: Instagram
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It is my goal to create an ever-increasing income stream from dividend growth stocks, while it is my desire to beat the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) index over the long term. If you have too many goals, often they will start to conflict with each other. We need to determine what is most important, then set those aside as goals and leave everything else as desires.
If I am achieving my goal of creating an ever-increasing income stream from dividend investments, I would not drastically change my investing strategy if I were to under-perform the S&P. However, the opposite isn't true. If I were not consistently growing dividend income, but nearly always beating the S&P, it would be time to totally rethink my strategy.
To go a step further, I believe in the long term my dividend income will rise AND I will beat the S&P 500. Otherwise, it would not be a realistic desire. This has been the case since I have been publically tracking my dividend growth portfolio (see year by year results here).
Through August 31st, my investment in Vanguard 500 Index Investor (VFINX), which I use as a proxy for the S&P 500, was down 1.86%. Below are several dividend growth stocks with double-digit total returns that have out-performed the S&P 500 so far in 2011:
Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT)
Yield: 3.6% | 2011 Return: 11.6%
Abbott Laboratories is a diversified life science company and is a leading maker of drugs, nutritional products, diabetes monitoring devices, and diagnostics.
Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP)
Yield: 2.9% | 2011 Return: 10.9%
Automatic Data Processing Inc. is one of the world's largest independent computing services companies, providing a broad range of data processing services.
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE:CL)
Yield: 2.5% | 2011 Return: 15.7%
Colgate-Palmolive Company (Colgate) is a major consumer products company that markets oral, personal and household care, and pet nutrition products in more than 200 countries and territories.
The Clorox Company (NYSE:CLX)
Yield: 3.4% | 2011 Return: 13.4%
The Clorox Company is a diversified producer of household cleaning, grocery and specialty food products and is also a leading producer of natural personal care products.
Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX)
Yield: 3.1% | 2011 Return: 14.4%
Chevron Corporation is a global integrated oil company (formerly ChevronTexaco) with interests in exploration, production, refining and marketing, and petrochemicals.
Consolidated Edison, Inc. (NYSE:ED)
Yield: 4.3% | 2011 Return: 16.6%
Consolidated Edison, Inc. is an electric and gas utility holding company that serves parts of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
Genuine Parts Company (NYSE:GPC)
Yield: 3.3% | 2011 Return: 11.2%
Genuine Parts Co is a leading wholesale distributor of automotive replacement parts, industrial parts and supplies, and office products.
Kimberly-Clark Co. (NYSE:KMB)
Yield: 4.1% | 2011 Return: 13.7%
Kimberly Clark Corp. is a global consumer products company that produces tissue, personal care and health care. Its brands include Huggies, Pull-Ups, Kotex, Depend, Kleenex, Scott and Kimberly-Clark.
McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD)
Yield: 2.7% | 2011 Return: 25.2%
McDonald's Corporation is the largest fast-food restaurant company in the world, with about 32,500 restaurants in 117 countries.
Piedmont Natural Gas (NYSE:PNY)
Yield: 3.6% | 2011 Return: 11.3%
Piedmont Natural Gas distributes natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers in portions of North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Note that my returns above include the the timing of current year purchases.
My goal is to generate an ever-increasing income stream from dividends. My desire is to beat the S&P 500 over time. We should never confuse desires with goals. In the end, I will not sell a great dividend stock for under-performing the S&P.
Full Disclosure: No position in the aforementioned securities. See a list of all my dividend growth holdings here.
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"Orange is The New Black" cast member Pablo Schreiber tells Fox411 he had a drink thrown in his face because of how disliked his “Pornstache” character is.
“I’ve had a drink thrown at me, true story,” Schreiber said. “And now everybody feels sorry for me,” he laughed.
Fox411caught up with Schreiber back stage at the iHeart Radio music festival along with some of his fellow cast members Taryn Manning, Laverne Cox and Dascha Polanco.
Schreiber joked that he likes seeing his female cast members all dressed up and not wearing the prison garb the cast wears while filming.
“I still get turned on when I see the girls like this,” Schreiber said.
Schreiber, known for his infamous mustache on the show, said it’s not the real deal.
“They glue it on so it feels pretty real but it’s not mine,” he said.
Cox, known for her long locks, said “my philosophy when it comes to fake hair is if someone bought it then it’s real.”
The cast members say they’re still coming to terms with how wildly successful the Netflix series is.
The cast is currently filming the third season. Polanco dished on what fans can expect by saying it’s just “weird.”
As if "Orange is The New Black" can get any weirder.
Matt Finn is a Fox News correspondent based in the Chicago bureau. Follow him on Twitter: @MattFinnFNC
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Small business owners in California who were promised big tax breaks by the state government are now being ordered to pay possibly thousands in back taxes after a court ruling last year.
CBS Sacramento reports the state promised the tax breaks for opening certain kinds of businesses five years ago, but a court ruled the practice unconstitutional in December.
Now, the California Franchise Tax Board wants their money. The station reports an estimated 2,000 small businesses will be forced to pay up their retroactive taxes, totaling as much as $120 million. Some businesses will face a bill of as much as $200,000.
“It sends a message that you can’t trust government,” Ken DeVore with the National Federation of Independent Businesses tells CBS Sacramento. “If you comply in good faith with the rules, they can go back and penalize you.”
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California Sen. Ted Lieu, D-Redondo Beach, is fighting back against the taxes. His bill to block the taxes passed a Senate panel last month, and now faces a fiscal review from the Senate Appropriations Committee.
“When we make a promise, we have to uphold it,” Lieu tells CBS Sacramento.
Lieu told committee members before the bill passed he believed it is unfair to punish taxpayers for following the law as it was written at the time.
“They obviously can’t go backwards five years in time and change their investment or change what they did.” he tells CBS Sacramento. “They are stuck with what they did and it’s unfair to penalize them.”
The California Franchise Tax Board had no comment on the legislation to CBS Sacramento, but a department review stated they had not taken a position on it.
Click for more from CBS Sacramento.
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It is said that to err is human, to forgive divine. But there are times when to forgive is to err---and this column is about just such an occasion.
Remember Stephen Glass (search)? Stephen Glass was Jayson Blair (search) before Jayson Blair was Jayson Blair. A young white man, Glass wrote for magazines like the New Republic (search) and Rolling Stone (search), among others, and made up so many facts and quotes and people and descriptions that he brought his employers to disrepute and himself to unemployment. He became the subject of stories himself, a star of shameful headlines---and a Fox News Watch segment or two---in the spring of 1998.
A few months ago, he published a book about his transgressions. The book is a novel. In other words, in one of those increasingly frequent instances of life being stranger than Saturday Night Live (search), Glass wrote a work of fiction about his fictionalizing of fact.
Then, a few days ago, in one of those increasingly frequent instances of life being so preposterous that Saturday Night Live’s writers could not even have imagined it, much less made it into a skit, Glass got a job. A reporting job. An assignment to tell the truth about something. From a magazine. Rolling Stone. One of the very magazines in whose pages he told his untruths late last century.
In fact, so outrageous were Glass’s misrepresentations for Rolling Stone that the magazine was sued for them. It won the suit by arguing that it was not responsible for the falsehoods because Glass was a freelancer rather than a member of the staff. But after losing face because of young Stephen’s shoddy work, Rolling Stone lost a lot of money defending itself in court.
Nonetheless, it has just hired Glass to write a story about changes in Canada’s marijuana laws (search). Says a Rolling Stone spokesperson, as quoted by NewYorkmetro.com (search), Glass is “a good reporter. We thought he would be the perfect person to do the story.”
Perhaps because his judgment won’t be any worse if he gets high?
Forgiveness is among the noblest of human traits. But it must, like the others, be properly applied. The problem with Rolling Stone’s application of it in the present instance is that it forgives Stephen Glass at a time when, in part because of Glass, in larger part because of Blair, and in still larger part for a multitude of other reasons, the entire field of journalism is under a cloud of suspicion.
According to the latest poll from The Pew Research Center for The People and The Press (search), and The Project for Excellence in Journalism (search), 56 percent of Americans believe the media “often report inaccurately,” while only 36 percent think we “usually get facts straight.” The former figure is up from 46 percent in November of 2001; the latter is down from 45 percent in the same period.
Thus to give Stephen Glass the benefit of the doubt is to raise even more doubts in readers and viewers about the commitment of journalism to veracity. To give Stephen Glass another chance is to allow one wayward reporter to breathe a sigh of relief and thousands of dubious consumers to furrow their brows in mistrust.
Perhaps Glass deserves forgiveness. But it should come in small steps over a long period of time. Glass should write hundreds of articles for several years for tiny publications, building up a track record of honesty and reliability, before a magazine with the prestige of Rolling Stone gives him another assignment. He should spend more time doing penance, in other words, than he spent sinning in the first place.
Oh, that book Glass wrote, the novel about his previous misdeeds? It’s not selling very well. And I, for one, am not buying his report on Canadian marijuana laws, either.
Eric Burns is the host of Fox News Watch, which airs Saturdays at 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT and Sundays at 1:30 a.m. ET/10:30 p.m. PT, 6:30 a.m. ET/3:30 a.m. PT, and 11 p.m. ET/8 p.m. PT.
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As investigators dig into the scandal-plagued U.N. Oil-for-Food program, one question keeps surfacing — how deep does the link between French officials and Saddam Hussein go?
The CIA’s Iraq Survey Group (search) released a report in September that, in part, suggested that French businessmen and politicians with close ties to French President Jacques Chirac (search) may have received bribes from Saddam. It also said that French companies may have sold weapons to Iraq on the eve of the U.S.-led war against Iraq in 2003.
But French officials maintain that accusations of wrongdoing and illegal profiting against France have been made without proof. French Ambassador Jean-David Levitte (search) complained in a letter to a congressional investigator about the insinuation of French wrongdoing.
“The Oil-for-Food program did not produce smuggling. While the transactions agreed under the program served as 'support' for embezzlement and criminal offenses ... such actions existed before the program was established and continued to exist outside it,” he wrote.
• To read a copy of the Levitte letter, click here (pdf).
FOX News’ Jonathan Hunt traveled to Paris to look deeper into the French connection in the Oil-for-Food scandal. Following are excerpts from his reports, which aired this week on the FOX News Channel.
French Senator Denies Taking Saddam's Money
Over three decades Charles Pasqua's name has been linked to a series of French corruption scandals, but the former French interior minister has maintained his innocence and has never been convicted of any wrongdoing.
Now, Pasqua is being eyed as a player in the Oil-for-Food scandal. The CIA’s report listed Pasqua as having received oil vouchers from Saddam, vouchers that would have given him a profit of at least $400,000.
“I have never received anything from Saddam Hussein,” he said through an interpreter.
FOX News asked Pasqua why his name ended up in the CIA report?
“It's a good question,” he said. “It's not only my name that's there. The names of other French officials are included."
Pasqua said he’s willing to testify before Congress if asked. “I am ready to answer all the questions they want to ask,” he said.
Asked if he would be willing to open his bank accounts to investigators, Pasqua said: “Absolutely, no problem.”
Late last week investigators from the House International Relations Committee invited Pasqua to meet with them but it has yet to get a reply.
A French Investigator Watches
Eva Joly spent the better part of a decade as a French investigating magistrate looking into allegations of bribery involving French oil companies and senior politicians and political parties. Among her targets: Chirac's RPR party and Pasqua.
Her investigations brought convictions against more than 30 oil company executives, but thanks in part to France's immunity laws the top targets escaped.
“There are several investigations going on concerning Mr. Chirac but he cannot even be heard as a witness because of this rule saying he has immunity, but as soon as he is out of office he will have to answer questions from the judiciary,” Joly told FOX News.
Joly warned that anyone who pursues senior politicians in France faces real danger. Although no one has ever been charged with threatening her, Joly said her house was broken into, her telephones were bugged and her secretary was robbed. She said she feared for her life.
Now living in Norway, Joly will be watching closely as U.S. congressional investigators pursue the French connection to Oil-for-Food, hoping that an American investigation can succeed where the French probe failed.
Lawmaker: Reform Must Start at Top
French lawmaker Arnaud Montebourg said he believes that France’s perceived culture of corruption can be changed but that the changes must start at the top with Chirac.
Montebourg, a Socialist member of the French Parliament, said Chirac should be impeached because he is personally implicated in corruption.
“It's unacceptable for the world and for our reputation that our president is involved in such a way, so heavily, in very big cases of corruption, so I'm sorry to think that France is damaged by all this bad reputation,” Montebourg told FOX News.
Chirac has not faced prosecution in any scandals because French law gives him immunity from even being questioned until he leaves office despite any evidence against him.
Montebourg's party does not now have the votes in the French parliament to force impeachment and the French people don't seem to be clamoring to change the immunity laws.
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New research shows the herbal supplement St. John's Wort (search) to be as effective as one of the most popular prescription antidepressants for treating both moderate and severe depression.
The study is among the first to compare the supplement with a prescription antidepressant. It was funded by the German company that markets the St. John's Wort product used in the research, and was carried out by the company's researchers.
Some studies have shown that St. John's Wort might be useful in treating mild to moderate degrees of depression. However, prior studies have not shown it to be useful in the treatment of major depression.
The researchers treated 251 patients with major depression with either a standard dose of the St. John's Wort extract (900 milligrams a day) or the antidepressant Paxil (search) (20 milligrams a day). Dosages of their treatment were increased in patients who did not show improvements. Neither the patients nor their physicians knew which treatment was being given.
At the end of six weeks, 71 percent of the patients taking St. John's Wort and 60 percent of those taking Paxil had responded to treatment. Half of the St. John's Wort-treated patients and 35 percent of the Paxil-treated patients were free of depression symptoms.
The findings are published in the latest online edition of the British Medical Journal.
Earlier Research
Millions of people take St. John's Wort to treat depression and related disorders. Until now studies have been lacking showing evidence of its effect in the treatment of major depression.
One of the most rigorous trials on the effects of the herbal supplement showed St. John's Wort to be no more effective for the treatment of major depression than a placebo. But the same was true for the prescription antidepressant Zoloft (search). That U.S. National Institutes of Health-sponsored trial was reported in the spring of 2002.
St. John's Wort researcher Kenneth Kobak, PhD, says the clinical evidence now seems to favor a role for the supplement in the treatment of moderate and even severe depression.
"I would like to see more evidence from rigorously designed trials before I am firmly convinced, though," he tells WebMD.
While St. John's Wort is generally considered safe when taken alone, many concerns have been raised in recent years about interactions with other medications. It has been shown to decrease the effectiveness of some lifesaving drugs, including those that fight cancer and AIDS, and drugs, such as cyclosporine, that prevent organ rejection after a transplant.
A study published in the fall of 2003 showed that taking the herbal supplement reduces the effectiveness of as many as half of all prescription and over-the-counter drugs.
Angelika Dienel, MD, who was a principal researcher for the German study, says the interaction concerns are valid. But she says St. John's Wort has a better overall safety profile than prescription antidepressants.
Drug-related adverse events were reported in 55 percent of the patients in her study taking St. John's Wort and in 76% of the patients taking Paxil. The most common side effects seen in people taking St. John's Wort were dry mouth, headache, and fatigue.
Dienel says St. John's Wort should be considered an initial treatment for patients with mild to moderate depression. But she adds that people with chronic depression should look to other treatments.
Kobak says anyone who does decide to try the supplement should definitely tell their doctor.
"I don't think there is a big risk to trying it, unless someone is severely depressed and they need immediate treatment that is more certain to be effective," he says.
By Salynn Boyles, reviewed by Brunilda Nazario, MD
SOURCES: Szegedi et al. British Journal of Medicine, online edition. Angelika Dienel, MD, head, clinical trials department, Willmar Schwabe Pharmaceuticals, Karlsruhe, Germany. Kenneth Kobak, PhD, Dean Foundation for Health Research Education. WebMD Medical News: "Popular Supplements Scrutinized." WebMD Medical News: "St. John's Wort Affects Other Drugs."
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Scores of Islamic militants launched simultaneous attacks on police and government buildings in this city in Russia's turbulent Caucasus (search) region Thursday, sparking battles that killed at least 63 people.
Chechen rebels claimed responsibility for the attacks, which forced the evacuation of schools and left corpses littering the streets of Nalchik, the capital of the republic of Kabardino-Balkariya (search).
President Vladimir Putin (search) ordered a total blockade of Nalchik (search), a city of 235,000, to prevent militants from slipping out, and he said armed resisters would be shot, according to Russian Deputy Interior Minister Alexander Chekalin.
Estimates of the number of militants involved ranged from 60 to 300. The attacks began with heavy arms fire and explosions, and sporadic shooting continued for four hours afterward.
Of the 63 killed, 50 were militants and at least 10 were police officers, Chekalin said. Local Health Ministry spokesman Stepan Kuskov said at least three civilians were among the dead, and 84 people were wounded. The ITAR-Tass news agency quoted a doctor at a city hospital, Asker Zhigunov, as saying 15 civilians' bodies had been brought in.
Dmitry Kozak, Putin's envoy to the southern region, said Thursday's attackers were holding hostages at a police station, but he did not specify whether they were civilians or officers. A spokeswoman for the republic's Interior Ministry, Marina Kyasova, said police on the upper floors of the building were battling attackers on the ground floor, and denied that hostages had been taken.
The Chechen rebels' decade-long struggle against Russia, originally a separatist movement, has melded increasingly with Islamic extremism in the past decade and spread far beyond Chechnya's borders to encompass the whole turbulent Russian Caucasus region.
If the battles once shaped up between Russian troops and Chechen rebels, the picture has since grown far more complicated. Police and security forces have fought pitched battles with militants across the region, often engaging in urban warfare, and the rebels have employed terrorist methods including suicide bombings and the seizure of more than 1,000 hostages last year in a school in the town of Beslan, about 60 miles southeast of Nalchik.
The extremism is spreading despite the government's harsh anti-terrorist methods, from targeted killings of rebel leaders such as Aslan Maskhadov to the payment of rewards for information to the demolition of houses where suspected rebels have found refuge.
The strategy of launching simultaneous attacks on police facilities echoed last year's siege in another Caucasus republic, Ingushetia, in which 92 people died and police armories were looted. Basayev claimed responsibility for those attacks.
Military and police reinforcements were being sent to the city; a truckload of soldiers heading for Nalchik overturned, injuring 18 servicemen, a duty officer for regional road police said.
The Kavkaz-Center Web site, seen as a voice for rebels loyal to Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev (search), said it had received a message on behalf of the Caucasus Front. It said the group is part of the Chechen rebel armed forces and includes Yarmuk, an alleged militant Islamic group based in Kabardino-Balkariya.
Chekalin said Thursday's fighting began after police launched an operation to capture about 10 militants in a Nalchik suburb, and that the attacks were aimed at diverting police. All 10 suspected militants were killed, he said.
Gunmen launched simultaneous attacks against three police stations, the city's airport and the regional headquarters of the Interior Ministry and Federal Security Service, police said.
The attack at the airport was repelled, the facility was placed under military control and all flights were canceled, news reports said.
The militants also attacked the regional headquarters of the Russian prison system, the Emergency Situation Ministry's press office said. Interfax said a border guards' office also came under attack.
A teacher from School No. 5, who gave only his first name, Spartak, said children had been evacuated from the building, which is near a police station and an anti-terrorism office at the center of the attacks. Black smoke billowed from the building as panic-stricken parents searched for their children in the school yard.
Windows and doors at the local Federal Security Service office were smashed. Snipers crouched on the building's roof, and masked soldiers were in the streets, where two armored personnel carriers were parked. A crowd of bystanders stood about 100 yards from the building, with no cordon keeping spectators away.
In December, gunmen raided the Drug Control Agency branch in Nalchik, killing four employees, looting an arsenal and setting the office ablaze.
Earlier this year, Putin ordered security forces to deal more severely with suspected Islamic militants in the south. Law-enforcement agencies have launched a series of sweeps targeting suspected extremists outside Chechnya.
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A witness who acknowledged saving himself from a potential life sentence by testifying against O.J. Simpson conceded Tuesday that his memory of the hotel room confrontation at the center of the case hasn't been the same since he suffered two heart attacks.
Click here for photos.
Click here to read the charges (FindLaw).
Charles Ehrlich, Simpson's longtime friend and former co-defendant, frequently answered "I don't recall" during a tough cross-examination by Simpson's lawyer Yale Galanter.
Ehrlich said he was such a close friend of Simpson that he spent holidays with the former football star and his family for the past six or seven years and made numerous trips with him. The last one was to Las Vegas in September 2007 when they and four other men were arrested after allegedly robbing two sports memorabilia dealers at gunpoint.
For nearly a year, Ehrlich stood by Simpson as a co-defendant, facing 12 charges that included kidnapping, armed robbery, assault with a deadly weapon and coercion.
In August he became the fourth co-defendant to plead guilty to reduced charges and agree to testify against Simpson. The only co-defendant remaining is Clarence "C.J." Stewart, who like Simpson has pleaded not guilty.
The trial stalled when the defense objected to a prosecution plan to call to the stand a lawyer representing Fred Goldman, father of Ronald Goldman, who was slain along with Simpson's ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, in 1994.
Galanter said the testimony of David Cook was being offered "for prejudicial effect" to remind jurors of Simpson's controversial murder acquittal. Jurors have sworn to put that case out of their minds.
District Attorney David Roger argued it was relevant to show that Simpson memorabilia could have been subject to seizure by the Goldman estate, which won a $33.5 million civil wrongful death judgment against Simpson in March 1997. He said it would reflect on Simpson's mental state when he went to reclaim his possessions.
The judge said the argument was "thin," but she spent more than two hours on the issue in court and in chambers and had not decided what to do when the trial recessed for the day.
Galanter and Robert Lucherini, attorney for Stewart, made motions for a mistrial, which were denied. Lucherini renewed a motion to have Stewart's case severed from Simpson's, saying the "spillover" would prejudice his case.
Ehrlich gave damaging testimony against Simpson on Monday, contradicting Simpson's claim that he never saw a gun in the hotel room.
Galanter attacked Ehrlich's credibility Tuesday, repeatedly asking for specifics. Who was standing where, he wanted to know, and who told him what was going to happen?
"I can't remember that," Ehrlich said. "I can't recall. I can't remember that particular conversation."
Ehrlich said he had posed questions to middleman Thomas Riccio about the planned meeting at a room in the Palace Station Hotel Casino. But when Galanter asked what the questions were, Ehrlich protested, "You're asking me about specifics."
"That's what this trial is about — specifics," Galanter said.
"I can't recall exactly the questions," said Ehrlich. "That was a year ago."
Since then, he said, he had two heart attacks and conceded some things have become "foggy" in his memory.
He said he remembers meeting Riccio and hearing about a plan to take back stolen Simpson possessions.
"You certainly didn't think your friend O.J. Simpson would have you do anything illegal?" asked Galanter.
"I would hope not," said Ehrlich.
"There was never an illegal action planned?" asked Galanter.
"Correct," said Ehrlich.
"This was all about recovering O.J. Simpson stolen property?" asked the lawyer.
"Correct," said Ehrlich.
A long recess was called when Galanter sought to show jurors a display of the original charges and possible penalties Ehrlich had faced. After doing legal research, the judge said the information was admissible. Ehrlich said the penalties were the same as those Simpson faces.
Jurors, who had been told sentencing was not their concern, were then informed of the maximum terms — including life with possibility of parole after five years on the kidnapping charge. Ehrlich said his plea bargain reduced his charges to two probation-eligible counts.
"And clearly, Mr. Ehrlich, even though you were charged with a gun count, you didn't have a gun at the Palace Station," Galanter said.
"I didn't know about a gun," said Ehrlich, who had testified earlier that he saw a gun in the room.
Click here for ON THE SCENE blog.
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Everything in life is possible if you keep pushing yourself outside your comfort zone. That’s one of the mantras of athlete turned entrepreneur Lewis Howes.
I recently had the chance to learn more about Howes and his remarkable journey from being a professional athlete to a New York Times bestselling author, lifestyle entrepreneur and host of the podcast “ School of Greatness.”
It wasn’t an easy path. At one point, Howes found himself sleeping on his sister’s couch after he had had been injured playing football. He was trying to figure out his next steps in life. In the end, he had to overcome self-doubt and keep charging forward, and that was the key to creating his own success.
Even if you’re not an athlete, Howes’ advice and life lessons can provide a valuable basis for achieving success. Here is how Lewis Howes found his inner greatness.
1. You can’t play it safe. Instead, keep pushing yourself.
Howes made progress by taking action and choosing to push himself out of his comfort zone. For instance, to raise the funds to launch his own podcast, he needed to sell a company he had worked hard to grow. It was a gutsy move but one he has never regretted.
“There have been 100 turning points along my eight-year journey, but selling my company to a business partner was one of the actions that made the biggest difference,” Howes explained. “It allowed me to go off in a new direction with my personal brand. I was able to turn it into something I was really interested in. I have never looked back.”
2. Be an entrepreneur with an athlete’s focus.
Howes’ first dream was to become a professional athlete. He accomplished that as an arena league football player and team handball player. Though athletics is no longer his primary focus, the years of playing sports professionally provided skills he still uses, such as being able to concentrate on the task at hand.
According to Howes, you have to focus on your goal, cut out distractions, and lean into the pain. Being able to do that has made a big difference in his business experience.
However, ability to focus is not enough. It is also important to know how to direct the focus. In one of his podcasts, Howes says, “What you focus on determines your reality. For instance, if you are focused on generating income, you will naturally find ways to create more income. But if you focus on your loneliness, you will only remain lonely.”
3. Take care of your mind and body.
“So often, accomplishing our goals means being sedentary at work, but you cannot forget about your body,” Howes says. “Keeping your body tip-top, including exercise and getting sleep, is incredibly important to keeping your mind sharp and focused.”
He explains, “The mind-body connection is huge. If you don’t take care of your body and treat it with respect, you will not reach your full potential, no matter how developed your mind is. I learn so many valuable lessons for my business, relationships, etc. through pushing my body through fitness.”
Howes still plays handball and basketball. He also works out regularly. He makes sure staying fit remains a part of his life no matter what else he’s doing.
4. Believe in greatness.
Often people become so daunted or depressed that they give up on pursuing their dreams.
“You have to remember that it’s the journey from having a dream to finally attaining it where you see the most personal growth, and that’s how you become truly great,” Howes says. He also notes that you have to embrace the messiness in order to discover the possibilities.
“Every person has greatness inside them, a purpose in life, and a unique set of talents to contribute,” Howes said. “I honestly believe that everyone can make a significant difference in the world if they develop their skills and find a niche to serve.”
Related: What's Behind a 10-Year 'Overnight' Success?
5. Get clarity.
“It’s easy to get caught up in competing ideas or get so wrapped up in life that you forget to look beyond yourself,” Howes said. “You have to be able to have clarity on what you truly want. Without knowing the end goal, you don’t know where you are going.”
That confusion explains why so many entrepreneurial dreams estimates range from 40 percent to 90 percent -- do not succeed.
“This may take a while, but it’s essential to get clear on what your vision is,” Howes said. “If you don’t know the bigger purpose of why you are pushing yourself so hard, you'll burn out or get off course.”
Related: 7 Behaviors of Successful People
6. Start from a place of authenticity.
“Self-promotion is a big part of what any entrepreneur has to do to get out there and accomplish your goals,” Howes says. “But you have to be genuine about it. People will spot someone who is a phony, who isn’t coming from a place of truthfulness.”
It’s no secret that in the corporate world, the way people perceive you at work is critical to your career success.
“It has to come from authenticity,” Howes said. “Of course some people will be turned off by my style and how I promote myself, but I know that if I’m coming from an authentic place, from a desire to serve the most people, my intention will come across in everything I say and do.”
Related: 3 Habits Crucial to Success in a Lifestyle Business
7. Let your dreams lead the way.
Howes admits he has had an abundance of dreams. Some of them seemed farfetched, but he pursued them anyway. He has learned to let his dreams lead the way. Not pursuing them would have left him with regret and the painful knowledge that he hadn’t reached his full potential.
Even as he continues to accomplish his goals, he is nurturing more dreams. Howes believes he is destined to help others achieve their dreams too.
“At the heart of my work is a deep desire to let everyone know they matter and are worth it,” Howes said. “I care a lot. I see myself as a guy version of Oprah in the future.”
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MSNBC, CNN, Media Matters, NYT, CBS are starting to come unraveled at the seams; their little world pretty much resembles a dog fight without any dogs. The dumpsters came to the table half prepared!
They want to send the best of the best of their “junk yard” dogs out to attack Michelle Bachmann, Sarah Palin and Rick Perry only to come home with tail between legs, shot in the foot again.
CNN’s Jack Cafferty throws a Cafferty dart at the three Republican candidates and their supporters saying they’re allergic to brains. Jack is the one who called President Obama a liar on National TV January 2010.
This is the same “Jack” that accused Obama and DEMS of hiding behind closed doors after Obama had promised transparency, while they were crafting the Obamacare bill.
Speaking of brains Jack, CNN posted this article about Obama May 27, 2011, the article refers to Obama as a Moron saying he’s incompetent and doesn’t know what the heck he’s doing. Not a good way to give Obama a hand up, more like a slap in the face!
James Carvelle describes Rick Perry as not being very bright. But, that’s a mild comment from James when you realize what he said to the Christian Scientists at a breakfast speech about Obama. James said, ““If Hillary gave up one of her balls and gave it to Obama, he’d have two.” That’s about as low as a comment can get!
NYT – confused, bewildered and clueless pretty much describes the NYT. They refer to Perry’s speech about the FEDS as “horrifying,” and in the same breath call the tea parties terrorists. The NYT pleaded for readers to search thru Sarah Palin’s gubernnatorial e-mail frantically looking for a needle in a haystack. NYT remains the paper that “Prints and Retracts.”
Media Matters is the perfect place for x-rated journalism and fiction spiced up with gibberish and political rhetoric. Yet, for those who enjoy reading “crap,” it’s the perfect place to land. If MM spent as much time supporting their Country as they do printing garbage, they’d be a real asset.
So at the end of the day all that’s remaining of the Liberal News Media is a pile of rank garbage; even the Liberals are disgusted with their off the wall journalism. They’ve shot themselves in the foot so many times and all that remains is two bloody stubs.
Their game of “distraction,” name calling and misguided political rhetoric has only harmed Barack Obama. Liberals say he caved on debt ceiling. Unions are alienating themselves from the Obama regime saying he’s mishandled unemployment and labor issues.
Hispanics are jumping ship as we speak and young people are no longer infatuated with the man some call Obama and his teleprompter. Even Maxine Waters slam dunks Obama for his inability to fulfill his promises to the black people on jobs.
It’s a dog eat dog world out their for the Liberal News Media and the “Big Dogs,” Liberals, Unions, CMC, Hispanics and youth are prepared to have Obama as an appetizer.
May God Bless America
As Always,
Little Tboca
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Microsoft's ActiveSync licensing program is continuing full-steam ahead.
Last year, Apple acknowledged it had licensed ActiveSync to enable better synchronization between Exchange Server and the iPhone. ActiveSync, as explained on Microsoft's Web site, is "a communication protocol that enables mobile, 'over-the-air' access to your e-mail messages, schedules, contacts, tasks lists, and other Exchange Server mailbox data.
On February 9, Microsoft announced that Google had become the latest ActiveSync licensee. Google apparently is licensing ActiveSync in order to allow tighter synchronization between Exchange and its newly unveiled Google Sync service.
(Just to be clear: Google didn't announce it was licensing ActiveSync; Microsoft announced it for them. Today's announcement on the Google blog never mentions ActiveSync at all. Instead it mentions Windows Mobile.)
Google's Google Sync sounds very much like the Microsoft My Phone (Skybox) service that the Redmondians are slated to launch next week at the World Mobile Congress show in Barcelona.
Microsoft has licensed ActiveSync to a number of mobile vendors, including Nokia, Palm, Sony Ericsson and others. The standard fee Microsoft charges its ActiveSync licensees is $100,000 "or first-year’s royalties, whichever is higher, with a per unit royalty thereafter."
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CGG SA (NYSE:CGG)
Q1 2014 Earnings Conference Call
May 7, 2014 3:00 AM ET
Executives
Katrina Lowell
Jean-Georges Malcor – CEO
Stephane-Paul Frydman – Corporate Officer, Senior EVP, Finance and CFO
Benoît Ribadeau-Dumas – Senior EVP, Acquisition Division
Analysts
Sanath Shetty – Nomura
Fiona Maclean – Merrill Lynch
Julien Laurent – Natixis
Henry Tarr – Goldman Sachs
John Olaisen – ABG
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
Jean-Luc Romain – CMCIC Securities
Geoffroy Stern – Kepler Cheuvreux
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Mick Pickup – Barclays
Caroline Hickson – UBS
Jean-Francois Granjon – Oddo Securities
Jean-Francois Granjon – OBGG
Morten Nystrøm – Nordea
Operator
Good day and welcome to the CGG First Quarter 2014 Results Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to the company. Please go ahead.
Katrina Lowell
Thank you, and good morning. Katrina Lowell (ph) speaking. Welcome to the CGG first quarter 2014 financial results conference call. The quarterly financial information, including the press release, the presentation and a streaming audio webcast of this call, are available on our website at www.cgg.com.
Some of the information contains forward-looking statements, including, without limitations, statements about CGG plans, strategy and prospects. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may change at any time, and therefore, the actual results may differ materially from those that were expected.
The call today is being hosted from Paris, where Mr. Jean-Georges Malcor, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Stephane-Paul Frydman, Executive Vice President, Finance Strategy and Group CFO, will provide an overview of the first quarter as well as provide comments on our outlook. Also the call, Benoît Ribadeau-Dumas, Senior Executive President in-charge of Acquisition.
Following this overview of the full year, we’ll be pleased to take your questions.
And now, I will turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Jean-Georges Malcor.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Thank you, Catherine, and good morning to all of you. I’m on slide 3 of the presentation. And as we have previously indicated during our last conference call, we operated this quarter in flattish seismic market and in the global context of reduced exploration and development spending.
In these difficult conditions, which have prevailed since the end of 2013, the first quarter of 2014 was in-line with our expectations. Total revenues were $806 million down 7% year-over-year, but equipment and acquisition were down but GGR was significant up.
This quarter can be characterized by first low level of land activity, both in equipment and acquisition, especially in North America. Second, still unbalanced supply-demand situation in contract marine acquisition but however, the level of activity in all segments of Geoscience, which remains sustained, with notably a high level of multi-client production.
Looking at the marine operational performance, it was strong this quarter with an availability rate at 94%, much higher than the Q4 rate at 83%, and the production rate at 93% also up versus last quarter at 90%.
Looking at our Q1 profitability. Operating income was at $35 million with 4.3% margin. This operating results was in line with our expectations based on the solid operational performance and this quarter the acquisition division was that to breakeven after heavy loss in Q4 2013.
On the EBIT side, the result was $18 million, including a negative contribution from the equity from investees, this was mainly related to Seabed Geosolutions JV, due to low obviously utilization as we probably know we’re currently mobilizing and also some issues in difficult operational circumstances.
The net income for the quarter was negative at minus $15 million. Our backlog as of April 1, reached $1.2 billion and looking forward, we have a reasonably good visibility into 2014, with marine fleet coverage at 97% in Q2, 60% in Q3 and 10% in Q4.
Now moving to slide 4, while we are still facing difficult market conditions, we remain focused on delivering the transformation plan and vigorously managing the financial debt. On those two fronts, we were very active this quarter and the SERCEL steps of the plan have been implemented.
As you remember, we announced in Q4, during the capital market day, the launch of this new strategy plan for the period 2014 to 2016. I’m pleased to report that this transformation plan is on track and progressing well.
In marine first, following the redelivery of the GeoAtlantic in October last year, and the conversion of two seismic vessels into source vessels, the symphony was duly as planned mid-February 2014.
The reduction of the marine fleet as structured along with the reduction of the associated step-up cost structure in every operational marine sites. We will rely on free regional appraisals of site worldwide and also transit the super functions will also be centralized. Work consisted consultations have started in all relevant countries and sites, and they will last until the end of June.
In land, more recently North America and as already mentioned, we had been facing one of the more difficult winter season for our land operation in this region. We immediately adapted our regional organization with employees in North America having already left the company.
In the Eastern this year, and in line with our agreement with our partner TAQA in the Middle East, the new organization has been proposed to refocus on IN and niche markets.
We were not only active on the operational side, but also on the financial side this quarter, as we successfully launched two refinancing operations in April to extend our debt maturity at very good market conditions. Stephane-Paul Frydman will give you more color later on that matter.
So, let’s have a look at our first quarter operations, division by division. First on page 6, and starting with equipment. The equipment showed resilience despite lower sales. Following high deliveries in Q4 2013, equipment, total equipment, so SERCEL total equipment sales declined in Q1 to $206 million.
External equipment sales were $163 million down 14%. Land equipment sales accounted for 49% and marine for 51%. This is a bit different from the usual part of two third land and one third marine, this quarter, land deliveries coming up to very strong deliveries in Q4, were low across all geographies.
Internal sales represented 21% of total revenue, this is 24% last year, as we are particularly downsizing the fleet. Despite the volumes were up, the equipment division managed to keep the sustained margin at 20%, thanks to efficient cost control and manufacturing efficiency and despite unfavorable Euro-dollar exchange rate.
We told you the capital market day, that surface as for every equipment manufacturer is highly sensitive to volume and product mix, which was unfavorable this quarter with particularly a lower electronic content.
Now, let’s move to slide 7 to the acquisition division. In acquisition, we still operated this quarter in difficult market conditions. Acquisition total revenue was down 6% at $559 million and acquisition external revenue was down 16% at $353 million.
Internal revenues were $206 million representing 37% of total revenue, versus 29% in Q1 2013. This increase in internal revenue is totally correlated to higher multi-client CapEx as 51% of the fleet was dedicated to multi-client program this quarter.
Now, if we look in more detail, in land and airborne, revenue was down 26% at $106 million due to a record low inter-campaign in North America. In Canada and in Alaska, we operated this winter only five land seismic cruise versus nine last year. This triggered immediate adaptation actions as already mentioned.
In airborne, we will audit some oil and gas contract and this is promising but the mining market remain under pressure.
Now moving to marine, marine revenue was stable year-over-year at $453 million and up 25% sequentially. As I mentioned earlier, the symphony was rigged as planned mid-February, and the marine fleet recorded a very solid quarterly operational performance, a great satisfaction during all difficult times.
Acquisition operating income was at breakeven this quarter, showing a strong improvement from Q4 2013, many driven by a solid marine operational performance. As still a negative Q4 2013, the marine contribution was positive this quarter.
Year-on-year, marine contribution benefited from better availability rate, 93% versus 88%, and better production rate 94% versus 93%. That’s the sale from lower price conditions and still from a high cost base at the transformation plan has just started.
Sequentially, and with very similar pricing condition than in Q4 2013, marine operating contribution showed a strong improvement in profitability driven by the favorable impact of the availability of the production rates.
If we look now at the land side, land acquisition operating contribution was much lower in year-on-year due to the record low inter-season in North America, which still penalized the contribution.
Sequentially however, land acquisition operating contribution was better this quarter but still loss making as we quickly implemented the restructuring measures in North America as mentioned already.
Overall, the acquisition EBIT contribution was negative at $60 million, the negative contribution from the equity from investees was mainly coming from the Seabed Geosolutions, due to lower utilization, different operational of second franchise, which are partly weather related and started difficulty start below fees.
Now, if we move on page 8, and going to GGR, GGR showed solid and sustained profitability. Q1 2014 GGR revenues were $290 million up 20%. Revenue from multi-client data was $127 million, up 18% showing the best Q1 performance since 2008 and was mainly driven by pre-funding revenue.
Multi-client cash CapEx was at $156 million, up 23% year-on-year and was primarily focused in Gulf of Mexico with the beginning of TWA, the final phase of our IBALT stacks-size program.
We also started to multiplying programs offshore Brazil, in first the Amazonas and Campos. And CCG also completed in non-multi-client in three 3D land program targeting the massive Shale Basin in the U.S.
Pre-funding sales, were at $80 million, corresponding to 51% pre-funding rate versus 48% last year and in line with our year-end target of 70% plus.
After sales with $47 million, down 9% year-on-year, but they were particularly strong in Canada and Brazil. Amortization rate was 61% as anticipated.
(Inaudible) activities stood at $163 million, they were up 7% due to a strong performance across the business lines, notably with the first commercial success of Geosoftware and Geoconsulting activities.
CGG and GGR use science and exclusive agreement for Rock Scan technology, the technology which is provided by CGG as part of our shale finance alliance.
GGR division profitability was stable year-on-year for the recurring activity, excluding the $20 million spectrum capital gain in Q1 last year. GGR EBIT reached $63 million showing a 21.8 EBIT margin in-line with our objectives.
Now, I hand the floor to Stephane-Paul Frydman, to comment in more detail the financial figures.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Thank you, Jean-Georges. I’m on slide 10, and let’s look first at the cash flow elements. So our cash generation in Q1 was in line with our expectations, showing a typical Q1 pattern, group EBITDA amounted to $188 million and 24% margin and resulted from equipment EBITDA margin of 25%, acquisition EBITDA margin at 14% and GGR EBITDA margin at 55%.
This EBITDA combined with paid tax and changing working capital led to $118 million cash flow from operation, 87% year-on-year, thanks notably to a tight working capital management.
Global CapEx was $258 million this quarter, made of initial CapEx at $86 million, this is in-line with our expectations for the whole year at $275 million range. R&D CapEx reached $16 million and notably related, notably related to SERCEL Geosoft to our businesses, and multi-client cash CapEx stood at $156 million being more than 90% marine.
This is in-line with our expectation for the full year within the range of $500 million to $550 million. And those multi-client cash CapEx were 51% presented this quarter, of this is 48% in 2013. And as usual, the company rate should improve all along the year to reach above 70% by year end.
The combination of the cash flow of our operation, the global CapEx and $12 million of interest paid, led to a negative $152 million of free cash flow this quarter. And the amount quite similar to the one of 2013, which was $148 million, due to a combination of usual working capital evaluation pattern in first quarters, and the high level of multi-client CapEx.
Moving to balance sheet items and structure of our capital employed among slide 11, you see that based on 1.38 Euro-dollar closing rate, the good capital employed amounted to $6.3 billion as of end of March, to be compared to $6.1 billion by year-end 2013.
On the asset side, the multi-client library net new value amounted to $916 million at March end, based on multi-client cash CapEx presented 51% as I said before and the 60% depreciation and as mentioned previous by Jean-Georges.
Once again, this increase is strongly correlated to our Gulf of Mexico strategy, and the building up of our tax library ahead of the future of ‘16 to ‘18 credit quarters licensing rounds.
On the liability side, the net debt amounted to $2.4 billion as the end of March, including €1 billion denominated debt. And it corresponds to net debt show at 65%. The growth of the net debt on $2.2 billion by year-end 2013 is consistent with our usual cash generation pattern throughout the year with a cash generation mostly consolidated in H2 Q4.
The average maturity of the net debt was down to full year at end of March, and looking at the period driven by a confirmation planning the 2014 to 2016 period. The moderate installment related to our gross debt were globally amounting to $875 million and were mainly made of the reimbursement of our 2016 convertible bond.
Based on such perspective, we decided post Q1 to actually hide the financing of our upcoming debt installments in the light of two main consideration, a, very favorable trade market conditions with accessible interest rate at lower level ever for the plus rated company and b, a stable outlook for the 18 months to come concerning CGG credit ratings.
So the slide 12 is showing what we made – the guidance what we made in terms of accelerated refinancing program. As said previously by Jean-Georges, we launched and closed in April, two significant refinancing operation on the high yield bond markets. First, we showed €400 million high yield bond due 2020 to repay currency to currency of 2016 converts. We obtained 57As coupon which is the lowest rate ever obtained for high yield bond issued by CGG.
We also issued a week later a $500 million high yield bond due to 2022 at 67As coupon to repay also currency to currency, co-label U.S. high yield bond trance. Altogether, the new notes will bear a 6.3% interest in average.
The net proceeds of those high yield bond issued, allowed us then to push forward 2016 to 2017 moderate installments to 2020 and 2022. We proposed then offer to repurchase 100% of the €360 million of convertible bonds due 2016. The standing approaches were closed on May again, and 98% of the convertible bond has been repurchased. So, we are going now to request for this squeeze-out of this outstanding convertible bond that should be completed by end of June.
And we call also, all the $235 million senior notes due May 2016, there were weighted 9.5% coupon and two third of the $400 senior notes due May 2017 that were weighted 7.75% coupon. So following those two refinancing transaction and the early repayment and debt repayments, the cash cost of our debt will remain at low level at 5.3% in average.
The P&L accounting cost of debt measured under pro forma basis and yearly basis, will be reduced from $190 million down to $175 million. And the average maturity of the debt as of the end of March, will be standard to six-year from four years, meaning we are earning two years of maturity in very good market conditions.
I’ll hand the floor back now to Jean-Georges, for the conclusion.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Thank you, Stephane-Paul. And slide 14, and looking at 2014, we are expecting the seismic market conditions to remain flattish in the global context of reduced exploration and development spending and assuming a more disciplined behavior from the marine seismic industry.
As mentioned before, we are anticipating the stronger H2 following the low H1. We are active on all fronts, remaining focused on commercial performance and operational efficiency.
First, globally, at a group level and across the board, we have launched cost reduction and cash management initiatives. Second, in equipment, we are right now producing our first 508 cross tech system for first customer and we are waiting for Viacom of the first Saudi Aramco high-channel account tender.
Third, in acquisition, we are right-sizing the fleet and the land activity. The first steps have been achieved, the next ones are well engaged and we will keep our – we will keep you regularly informed of progress made on this matter. We will see the 36 of those measures on our cost structure during H2.
Fourth, in GGR, we are seeing a strong interest from our clients stimulated by promising fast-track images for our IBALT program and Subsurface imaging and reservoir of the sustained activity in all parts of the world.
We also reiterate our objectives of positive cash generation and active debt management. 2014 industrial CapEx, should be in the range of $275 million to $300 million, and 2014 multi-client cash CapEx should be in the range between $500 million and $550 million, with a pre-funding level confirmed above 70%.
In this context, we are fully committed to implementing our 2014-2015 transformation plan, and we affirm our goal to rebounce our portfolio of activities and our firm commitment to meet our 2016 targets of revenue above $4 billion and improved EBIT margin by 400 basis points versus 2013 in unchanged market conditions. Thank you very much.
And now we are ready to answer your questions.
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question today comes from Sanath Shetty of Nomura.
Sanath Shetty – Nomura
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I think my first one would be on pricing. I think you’re saying that there is, U.S. witnessing some discipline from the seismic players on pricing. Given that demand might be slightly computed in H2, how confident are you that this trend will continue?
Second, on pre-funding, you’ve reported 50% pre-funding in Q1, whereas your overall yearly target is above 70%. I just wanted to know the drivers in Q2 and probably H2, from which regions do you expect pre-funding to be coming above 75% to 80% in order to reach your yearly target? Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. On pricing, currently in current market condition, the marine contract prices have been under tension. The supply demand balance as you say these is fragile. However, we did see some discipline globally at industry level, for example, some of the seismic vessel have been transformed in source vessels. And globally, the market has been as I say, flattish, flattish minus perhaps.
Condition in Q1, have been weak as expected and communicated. And in this context, we are on our side clearly even more determined than before to implement our strategic roadmap, working on reducing the capacity as we said. Reducing our cost base, our exposure and providing always high end solution to our customers.
On the pre-funding side, we are at the end of Q1, 51%, which is a good level for Q1. Last year we were at 48% at the end of Q1, so we are in a pretty good situation there. Going forward, we are comfortable with the 70% plus objective of the end of the year as we indicated. And the reason is mainly driven by the Gulf of Mexico IBALT program. We are as you know, completing at the time being the last survey on these IBALT tax-size survey which is called TWA after year end.
And in parallel to this acquisition, we are also fast-tracking the images of the first surveys, we are one and two. We are showing those images to our customers and the feedback we have is extremely interesting. We are clearly bringing something new in the Gulf of Mexico. And we are comfortable that the take-up in the next two quarters and certainly before the end of the year, we will be at a level which will allow us to reach the 70% plus.
Sanath Shetty – Nomura
Sure, sure, thank you. That’s very comforting. Just on the first question, I think the follow-up would be, in terms of possibility that you can actually dispose off some of your other vessels as well, given that you already have a restructuring process in place. Do you think that you can reduce further down in your fleet?
Jean-Georges Malcor
No, at the time being we have indicated that we want to reach at the end of the restructuring, fleet size of first investors. This is our plan to date and for the time being we don’t anticipate to move out of this plan.
Sanath Shetty – Nomura
Sure, sure, thank you very much.
Operator
Our next question comes from Fiona Maclean of Merrill Lynch.
Fiona Maclean – Merrill Lynch
Thank you, yes, it’s Fiona Maclean at Merrill Lynch. The first question is in relation to your backlog, I know it’s standing at $1.2 billion at the moment. Could you give us a split of how much of that backlog relates to marine acquisition in terms of contract work?
And then, the second question is about the Seabed joint venture that you have, when do you expect that joint venture to actually start performing? And can you explain a bit further exactly what the problem is and why it’s been loss making since it started? Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. On the backlog side, Fiona, we don’t display the detail between the various segments for the activity. But the fleet coverage that we have provided will give you a good indication of where we stand today. And as I say, we have a reasonably good visibility for the year, at this time of the year with 97% in Q2 and 60% in Q3.
On the Seabed side, I know that this topic has been largely debated yesterday in Fugro’s call, because I remind you that Fugro is impacting our business and I’m happy to give you some colors on that. The process in the JV which are linked to a combination of poor utilization and there we large contracts for the Seabed JV, and those large contracts are usually taking time, which is not abnormal.
And we have also some one-off, and that to come back to your comment we are seeing very good growth opportunity on the future of the JV. The priority is clearly to we saw profitability on the very short term, we will focus on growth, deliver the backlog which is big, okay. And we are in the JV practically when we stop large contract like that with a topic is usually probably finance and funded. And then after when efficiency kicking in, and we are comfortable where the JV will be able to withstand future.
Fiona Maclean – Merrill Lynch
Okay. And just a follow-up on my first question, maybe if I ask it a slightly different way. Of the fleet coverage that you have for the remainder of this year, so the 97%, 60% and 10%, over the next three quarters. What proportion of that fleet coverage relates to multi-client activity, and what proportion relates to marine acquisitions, marine contracts?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Now, we don’t display the split between multi-client and production. It varies a lot between quarters, Q1 has been very strong in multi-client with 51%. It will continue in Q2 with the IBALT program. And obviously this will fade out as we go and will be taken up by more contract and less multi-client 156 in Q1. And we said that long story short, in Q2 and Q1.
Fiona Maclean – Merrill Lynch
Okay. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Julien Laurent of Natixis.
Julien Laurent – Natixis
Yes. Good morning. Could you tell if there is any cost associated with the refinancing in Q2, and regarding sales side, what is the visibility towards the end of 2014 for the 508 system? And particularly are you comfortable to get to be awhile before, which would be delivered before the year-end?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. So, perhaps Stephane-Paul, you can answer the first point and I will take the other one.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
So, Julien, you’re right to say that there would be obviously one-off cost related to our refinancing. Again, we still propose, obviously we have to pay the coal of our high-yield bond. But earlier it was paid by the savings we made on the interest side. And we’ll have also to pay the coal for the convert, the coal from the convert but that is mainly corresponding for two years of interest.
And the converts, so, all-in-all the cash cost, one-off cost we should have in our Q2 accounts should be in the range of $20 million, again covering for half-and-half, the U.S. high yield bond coal and the coal on the convert.
And that would be on top of that, probably a non-cash cost which is, we have the equity component related to the convert, so part of it will be wrote-off at the equity level. Part of it will have to be down at the P&L level. And here again, the order of penetration should be $40 million each at the P&L level. Again, non-cash cost, non-cash cost and probably a $20 million directly at the equity level. So, you have the three main component of the one-off item in Q2.
Julien Laurent – Natixis
Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. Regarding SERCEL junior, I would offer the following comment. Q1 was clearly low in-line with our expectation. I remind you that Q4 was super strong in SERCEL, it was one of the record quarter. So, Q1 and by the way H1 was expected at this level.
We’ve some geographies being relatively quiet at the beginning of the year, particularly Russia and China and some delays in Middle East. However, we expect it to be stronger and driven by four elements.
First, we should get the answer of the first big Saudi tender, we’re expecting that any day but certainly before the end of June. So, this will clearly, the time to mobilize will be on H2 story, okay.
The production, second, the production of the 508 prospect as I mentioned is ongoing. And the equipment, the first coal will be delivered in July and will be in operation in September with one of our customers. Globally, the 508 to come back to your question, is attracting a lot of interest from the customer base. And we have a number of proposals which have been issued.
And finally, two other points I’d like to mention regarding SERCEL, the fact that our new set-up, with the U.S. gas and our partnership with TAQA, will be in place by the end of June, so again that would be an H2 story. And we should not forget also for SERCEL, the seasonality of the business which was as always a very strong Q4 as we demonstrated last year.
Perhaps, a last comment on SERCEL regarding the margin. This quarter, we demonstrate again that we are fully aligned with the volume margin curve that we give you back in the capital market day. When the volume is up, the margin will be up, so we are at the time being we’re actively comfortable with the SERCEL model.
Julien Laurent – Natixis
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Henry Tarr of Goldman Sachs.
Henry Tarr – Goldman Sachs
Hi there, and thanks for taking my question. Just a couple of things, firstly, I guess, where do you see the drivers for late sales coming from this year and the outlook there? I know it’s always difficult sometimes to predict late sales, but any indication that would be great?
And then secondly, have you had any sort of pricing indications for 4Q or is it a little bit too early at this point to comment on that. I mean, then lastly, just any indications that you have from clients on the demands side and are you seeing any patents there, so is there any difference between IOCs and NOCs in sort of tender activities? Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Yes, okay. Thank you, okay. Driver on late sales, there are a number of points we have to – that we have to take into account. Gulf of Mexico is still active for us, Brazil is still active as well. We have quite a strong interest in the North Sea, particularly on the U.K. site, the list around have been active.
We have also some interesting demand in West Africa, so it’s not something where there is a big one standing up, but more general interest across the board for the library. By the way, including on the launch side, Canada and North America, okay, which was a little bit quiet in the last few years, which is waking up again.
So, it’s really across the board and the library we have today is pretty well positioned with our footprint to answer the mail on that.
4Q pricing clearly start too early because the big basins which are usually active in Q4, are just getting their act together now. The positive thing we can say is that on the Indian side, on the Indian Basin side, which is a very important growth really after the – not growth relay but relay after the North Sea campaign.
They are clearly getting their act together much earlier than last year. They are already discussing with industry, with us and I guess others, on how to best frame the coal tenders and they really want to get their act together and to have a full Indian season going this year, while last year it was truncated. So, far too early to give you prices for Q4.
Regarding your last point, you are quite right that we see different patterns between on the demand side between IOCs and NOCs. First point, we haven’t seen on the IOC side at the time being, cancellations, huge cancellations, okay. We have had a couple of example but on small contracts, globally – we have seen more delays and taking more time but no cancellations. And we still have a pretty good level of bidding activities around the world.
On the NOC side, it is very different. Clearly, the NOC, they are following their agenda which is much less driven by the quarterly results if you want and more their vision for developing their countries. And we are seeing particularly in the Middle East at the time being, a very high level of bidding activities in all countries in the Middle East, Kuwait, Saudi, UAE, Oman, also in Egypt, also in North Africa.
So, I would say that we don’t see any slowdown in NOCs. But obviously they are working on their agenda and they are on timing.
Henry Tarr – Goldman Sachs
That’s very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from John Olaisen of ABG.
John Olaisen – ABG
Yes, good morning Paris. It looks, in a more declined book value which is rising fairly sharply between 6% year-on-year. Could you remind us what we should expect of our production rate going forward please?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Yes, Stephane-Paul will give you that. But a word to explain the rise, your coal price it has been going up lately. It’s totally related, and when I say totally, perhaps 98% related to the IBALT survey in the Gulf of Mexico, which is ongoing at the time being and for which we are shooting and processing at the time.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Yes. And looking at our depreciation rate, the volume should be around the year of close to 65%, 65%. Last year we were at 63%, we could be 63%, 64%, 65% this year, but that’s the order of magnitude.
John Olaisen – ABG
And 65% going forward, is that sufficient to stop the book value from rising or should we expect the book value to continue rising over the next three to four quarters or throughout the rest of the year?
Stephane-Paul Frydman
You raised a very good point, which is just a fact. And we remind what we said at the capital market day, in terms of what is the strategy looking forward for the multi-client CapEx. We’re clearly at peak in 2014 that’s decreased – I said just by Jean-Georges, it’s deeply related to what we’re doing in Gulf of Mexico. We’re playing the 2016 to 2018 lease around, so that means that the peak of the multi-client is related to the Gulf of Mexico.
And looking forward, 2015, 2016, we should be back to a more I should say natural place of middle cash CapEx. Again, from the $418 million we made in 2013, we are guiding today in the range of $500 million to $550 million and we should be down to $415 million starting 2015 and 2015 horizon. And that’s – at that time that the book value will put start to go down.
John Olaisen – ABG
Yes. And then the question on the vessel coverage going forward, 60% for Q3 this year seemed to be quite a lot lower than most of the other seismic players are saying. And are you one of the guys have been having showing strongest base for this summer, with just such a low order backlog and is that a fair statement or what do you feel yourself, what is your backlog so low for Q3 that’s starting in two months?
Jean-Georges Malcor
First of all, I don’t know what my competitors will be publishing in the next few days. But from what we, the vessel count and looking, it’s a pretty transparent business. So, we know who is doing what and where. When we do the vessel count on our side and with our competitors, we don’t see backlog so different in Q3, between us and the competition.
So, we are seeing 60% and maybe 65% or 55% or 70% but it’s not so different. So it would be interesting to see what would be published in the next few days. But from just looking at the world of contracts and deployment of vessels, and it’s not so complex because you have to know how to count up to 65%. And that’s about it. e are not seeing ourselves so different from the competition. So that’s a global comment.
Second comment on your point, which is very true. We did try to be – to be very disciplined to put the price up. And particularly in the North Sea and the Barron Sea, we did lose something else in doing so, okay. But that price means that the vessels of orders are occupied.
And there are seeing some award which are expecting, which are in the pipe, which have not materialized yet, you have to keep that in mind, particularly in South East Asia, I was looking for the world and Russia.
John Olaisen – ABG
But would you say that 60% coverage for Q3 at this point in time, is it right or its normal – lower than it normally should have been for Q3?
Jean-Georges Malcor
It’s about, it’s roughly in line with, it varies between 60% and 70% usually at least some of the year.
John Olaisen – ABG
Okay. Thanks a lot. Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Our next question comes from Christopher Møllerløkken of SB1 Markets.
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
Yes, good morning gentlemen. Regarding Brazil, you late last year won the three large multi-client surveys they’re in. But so far you’ve only started up the total survey, now referring to the Northern Brazil work. Has this started in BG surveys being hit by permitting issues or when do you expect them to start-up?
Jean-Georges Malcor
No, we are currently shooting total. We are starting the Statoil already. And we’ll be mobilizing pretty soon for the last one. But Benoit, if you want to give more color?
Benoît Ribadeau-Dumas
Yes, we have to – as Jean-Georges said, as you know, we have started long-time ago, at the beginning of the year, the total full time survey, we are currently mobilizing for the second large survey for mainly for Statoil but other customers as well. And the last one, where BG is the main subscriber, Bahrainis has been slightly delayed by permitting issues. For let’s say a good reason as well, because the survey has been extended so there was a need to reapply for new permits.
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
In terms of the ROST network in Russian Barron Sea, Cara Sea, there was an issue earlier this year with ruble depreciating in value. Has the ROS net award now been awarded, what’s the status there currently.
Jean-Georges Malcor
We, Christopher, we cannot comment on that because it’s in evaluation phase at the time being, the award have not been published. So, I think you need to ask the question to ROS net on that because for the time being nobody has been notified of the outcome, even if everybody have some vibes. But it’s not official yet.
On our side, we are obviously extremely careful, not to be exposed to any actions rate and particularly to the rubles.
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
Of course, equity income negative in first quarter, could you give any guidance for equity income going forward, will it still be a loss in the second quarter? And what’s your view on the full-year?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Well, we will follow mainly the pattern of the Seabed invention that was the main contributor in Q1. And obviously, we will be – well, we will follow as it is, we’re taking 40% of the net income of the Seabed joint venture. It will impact anyway Q2 in the following year. So, please refer to what was said by few on the full-year, the vision on the full year for the Seabed joint venture.
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
Just two final questions. Did first quarter include any restructuring costs?
Jean-Georges Malcor
No.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
No, no.
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
And I know you don’t split the backlog on all the deals, but pretty obviously I was said indication on the SERCEL backlog, could you give any indication of the SERCEL backlog as of 1 April?
Jean-Georges Malcor
As you know, on the SERCEL side, the backlog is not a very good indicator because most of the sales particularly on the lump side are going directly, are not going for the backlog. But where we are today is pretty much in line of where we are normally at this time of the year on the backlog side.
Christopher Møllerløkken – SB1 Markets
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jean-Luc Romain of CMCIC Securities.
Jean-Luc Romain – CMCIC Securities
Good morning. My question relates to the contracts in cruise into the Middle East. You mentioned Saudi Arabia which should be awarded soon. Although what it is based on the region maybe?
Jean-Georges Malcor
There are certainly, unique opportunities in terms of bidding. There are lot of activities at the time being. There are bids in Kuwait, you’d probably know that there is one crew in Kuwait its public. And this was one in continuity with their current operation that they have.
But there are two more tenders in Kuwait, Kuwait B, which is under evaluation, which has been bid and under evaluation. And there is a greater bargain which is very, very big one, which should be tendered very soon.
So, this is for Kuwait. Then after, we have opportunities in Oman, to increase the number of channels in Oman, which is ongoing. And there will be – so it’s one opportunity. And the second opportunity will be two very large tenders, they’re talking about 250,000 channels each, so those are very, very big tenders. But it will be probably for really the end of the year for the big tenders, so it will be 2015 story.
We have also been bidding in UAE for the reluctant track and also, Egypt which is waking up again, and as well as North Africa.
Jean-Luc Romain – CMCIC Securities
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Geoffroy Stern of Kepler Cheuvreux.
Geoffroy Stern – Kepler Cheuvreux
Yes, good morning. I have couple of questions. Just wanted to come back first on SERCEL, following the 20% margin in Q1, I think you mentioned earlier in the call that you too should be pretty similar. I mean, is it assumption first and secondly to what extent in Q3 we should see a kind of improvement here, that’s my first question?
The second questions relate to again, to the backlog and the fleet coverage, which in my view is a bit soft I would say. I know that earlier on this year you were expecting the Russian market let’s say to improve your fleet coverage. Can you update on this and if Russia does not materialize quickly, it’s likely – do you think that is likely to be more 2015 story, in that case, what are the risks to the supply demand balance in the marine market?
And I have another question this time around on the tax rate, could you provide us with an underlying effective tax rate for this year? And the final one, on the restructuring targets, no restructuring charges in Q1 between the gates that you are in negotiation with employees in some countries and that would be concluded by June. Does it mean that we should expect restructuring charges in the second half of this year? Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. I’ll start with the last one because it’s a straight forward answer and yes, we would expect restructuring charges in the second part of the year. We already indicated that in the Capital Market Day and earlier in the year, we have indicated that the restructuring charges for the plan, for the two-years plan or the 2014-2016 plan, will not exceed $100 million, okay. And we are totally within this – envelop at the time being.
So, just to be very clear with everybody, we are restructuring in major countries around the world, where we have to follow the referral and detailed process, legal process or social process. So this is ongoing. And the dialog with the unions and the employee representative is ongoing.
And as you know, very well in most of the countries, there is – there are delays and milestones to be respected. And this is why we say that this will be – that will bring us to the end of June.
And it’s already a very quick if we achieve that. So, yes, that will be restructuring charges to be taken later on in the year.
Geoffroy Stern – Kepler Cheuvreux
And just if I can follow-up on, if I can follow-up on Jean-Georges please, it sounds like given your previous comments you tend to accelerate the pace of the restructuring plan this year. So, is it fair to assume that the restructuring charge will be front-end loaded if we look at the 2014, 2016 period?
Jean-Georges Malcor
In fact, Geoffroy, we are doing the quicker we go in the restructuring, the better it is for everybody for the people, for the company, for what people hate is insecurity and unknown. So, we are trying to be as efficient as possible with our people.
We have started a very mature and very thorough social dialogue. And the quicker we can go with the restructuring, the better it will be particularly on the support function side, which is important because it’s not only the restructuring of the main division but it’s also globally at the group level. As I indicated, we are also taking cost reduction measures and cash management measures across the board.
So, coming back to your first point on SERCEL, as I said, you’re right to say that Q2 will be probably very similar to Q1 on the SERCEL pattern. And going forward, we are as I say expecting an H2 stronger than H1. Based on the foreign MN side, I indicated we’ll restate them again, because they are important.
First of all, we hope that SERCEL will be selected in some of the Middle East standards where we are expecting the outcome, pretty soon. And we are, obviously it’s lot of one, but we are relatively confident that SERCEL will be able to say some equipment in the Middle East, first point.
Second, the ramp up of the 508 cross tech, which is currently happening with the manufacturing of the first channels. I think SERCEL told me the other day that there have something like 30,000 channels already manufactured. They will be delivered in July and they will be filled and starting operation in September. So, you see a good, second good driver for H2.
Third driver, is the fact that our Middle East operations with our partner TAQA should be effective by the end of Q2 or beginning of Q3, let’s say June, July time frame. And this obviously will also position us in a good position to capture good market opportunities for SERCEL globally in the Middle East including Egypt.
And fourth, there is a seasonality matter that we should never forget in SERCEL, and look at the pattern of last year, where Q4 was super strong, with the winter campaign opening up, particularly with demand coming from Russia and China.
Geoffroy Stern – Kepler Cheuvreux
And just to be completely clear on this, I mean, excluding any large contracts or GGR business this year, do you still expect the sale to be in line with last year?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Yes. I mean, if we sort of – for me, it’s – that’s the kind of indication we gave. And as I say, H2 will be much stronger than H1 for SERCEL. And we were in the very similar pattern last year and I think we delivered last year. So, I don’t see any reason to see a different pattern at the moment. But Q4 is still very much, very far away at the time being.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
On the tax rate, maybe you’re taking good question Geoffroy. As usual, while currently you see that in Q1, our tax rate was charged despite the fact that we have EBIT minus interest expense negative. That’s again the weight of the foreign indexation.
The good news is that the foreign indexation is mainly related to the acquisition, so it should be looking forward, it should be reduced for the rightsizing of our position. And we will show this quarter, non-recognized disrupt as I said, notably in France, we’re quite prudent accounting ways that explained the minus 11.
Then, looking forward, again while this all of firm which is to look at the per division, and again GGR is a business that is exposed probably to and the sale or so, the equipment. Our business is that exposed to each year our 35% to 36% being mostly located either in France or in U.S. So that’s the national tax rate, those two I ask.
And then, on the acquisition, you have to take meaning to look at the external, the contractual part of the production and apply to a sale 25%, one third, 5% in average the indexation. So, and then that’s a way to conclude the tax rate to EBIT, the tax charges in your model.
Jean-Georges Malcor
And your final question Julien, sorry Geoffroy, on Russia, we are – we don’t see the contracts which were ear-marked for this year to be shifting 2015. We are confident that both contracts will happen this year, okay, even if they are not loaded yet. But we are confident that will happen this year.
As you know, the Russian season is very short and they are – they don’t want to take any additional delays on those prospect. But not only we are confident that that will happen this year but we are also strong believer that that will be even stronger in 2015.
Geoffroy Stern – Kepler Cheuvreux
Okay. Thank you for this.
Operator
Our next question is from Rob Pulleyn of Morgan Stanley.
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
Yes, good morning gentlemen, just a few questions over from me. Apologies to hop on about the backlog by just get a fair amount on this. You said this is how backlog would be in line with where you are normally at this part of the year.
Last year I think you told us, it was $210 million, is that the similar number we should think for 1Q ‘14 and because obviously that’s quite a lot higher than the year-end number you gave on the last conference call of $160 million. Sorry, go ahead.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
No, no, no, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead.
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
And the second question is I think you previously said the vessel pricing for 2014 on average over 2013 would be around about flat. Is that still the case? And then finally, a bit of a balance sheet question is, where do you expect net debt to become the end of the year? Thank you very much.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Okay. On the backlog of SERCEL, you’re right that last year we had a very, very strong backlog at $200 million plus for memory. The backlog of SERCEL at the moment is not something we disclose usually but it is probably close to $170 million, which is where we are – where we should be normally at this time of the year.
Last year was super strong, we are right. We had the number of big orders linked to remember Russia and China at the beginning of the year.
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
Okay. Thank you.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Yes. For the I think your second question was on pricing?
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
Yes, so I think previously you said that on average, pricing in 2014 would be similar to what it was on average in 2013. Is that still going to be the case or as what you’ve seen in terms of booking that fleet and obviously what’s been reported in 1Q sort of changed that somewhat? Thanks.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Yes. On the, I indicated that we expect indeed flattish seismic market during the year. We priced under pressure clearly. Q1 was slow, not very different from what we anticipated at the end of last year by the way. And within this condition, and taking into account the seasonality of the market as you know, we are not seeing any significant improvement or significant deterioration, but compared to where we were at the end of last year.
We are still seeing the price under pressure as I say, okay. And in this context we are even more comforted in our decision to adapt the size of our fleet to work very actively on our cost structure. And this is what we have started to do. Even if the results are not CBALT in Q1, we need the time to implement the decisions. But this will be clearly an impact on H2.
To continue to develop and to position ourselves on the high end solution to our customer, which is the season very important point as well. And so, we have a context which is by the way not at all the context we had in 2009, it’s not a market which is totally collapsing, it’s a market which is, which is under tension.
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
Okay. Fair enough. Thank you. And just finally, on the net debt, I mean, do you expect it to be similar to where you are today by the end of the year or perhaps a bit lower?
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Yes, Rob, there is some elements on that matter. First, we refinanced the convert by the CBALT. So you know that the IFRS treatment of the convert is quite special, meaning there is special portion of the principle that is completed within the debt.
So, I had said that was my provision show on the one-off we’re expecting in Q2 but probably this refinancing will have an impact of 15, 16 on the net debt, just in terms of guaranteeing treatments. So, that’s a first element.
Second element, looking at the free cash flow, what we will generate towards the year, it will depend on the current free cash and be in-line to be, that far that branch we said that we – I’m not expecting a huge cash generation but not too low on either. But that being said, it will depend on all kind of assumption.
As you know, we’re in-line to be quite active in terms of asset management, I’m not talking about acquisition, I’m talking about potential disposal within our plan. And it will depend if it’s liable to monetize or not the assets and that could generate some cash proceeds. So that’s too early in the year but that will have obviously and impact on the net debt.
So, I’m seeing and that was our previous assumption from Jean-Georges, we are watching that we could have – we could endorse some restructuring cost, the weight of those restructuring costs, well it would depend on the – our final pace in our confirmation plan. And the weight of that into ‘14. So, again, we could have plus and minus, that will impact the net debt.
But what is for sure is, okay, we are 2.4, 2.5, and that’s again the usual pattern of the year where our interest is quite low. We would like to be not far from where we ended the year, at least in terms of leverage you reminded we end the year at the leverage around two times the EBITDA, while that’s clearly these kinds of targets we are looking for.
Rob Pulleyn – Morgan Stanley
Okay. That’s very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Bertrand Hodee of Raymond James.
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Yes, hello. I have two questions if I may. The first question is probably going back in terms of pricing, which you witnessed in Q1 ‘14 and Q2 ‘14 compared to last year. So, if you can give us a bit more color on the I would say, the year-on-year decrease in terms of pricing for both quarters compared to last year?
And the second question is relating to SERCEL, just wanted to make sure I understood well your comments. It’s that if we exclude any mega crew royals in the Middle East in 2014?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Too early to give you any vision for SERCEL for the end of the year. We don’t master totally the timing of those awards. We are expecting for the time being the first feedback on Saudi Aramco. If we win that one and when we know the configuration of the tender, we’d be able to give you a bit more color on that.
Let’s first understand where we stand on that one. As you know, there are two options for re-standard, one is at 50,000 channels the other one is 200,000 channels, depending on the option which is chosen at the end. This will change significantly the profile of the revenue of SERCEL. So, let’s see what’s the outcome on that one first.
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Okay. Just on SERCEL, so Jean-Georges, but my question was clearly relating to sales profile excluding mega cruise because I know obviously it’s depending on the configuration of the Saudi Arabia, it could make a big difference.
So, our thinking is, are we looking for $800 million, $900 million base revenues for SERCEL this year?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Again, I can’t comment on that. The two big, the two biggest customer of SERCEL which are usually kicking off extremely strongly in H2, and particularly Q4, are Russia and China, okay. At the time being, we are at the beginning of the year, it’s not too early. And on top of that, which is very sensitive commercial information that we don’t want to disclose to our competitors.
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Okay.
Jean-Georges Malcor
You had another question?
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Yes. And my first question related to marine placing indication comparison year-on-year both from what you witnessed in Q1 ‘14 and in?
Stephane-Paul Frydman
We told you already in Q1, last year, you have to remember that the pattern of last year was very strong H1 in Marine, you would remember we finished the year, at the end of June we were 10% increased in price. And all this increase was destroyed in the second part of last year, okay. So, if we compare year-on-year on the quarter, Q1 has been lower than Q1 last year, okay.
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Can you quantify the year-on-year?
Stephane-Paul Frydman
It’s very difficult to quantify because if you want to quantify, you need to know the type of survey we are doing, okay. And for us, it’s very difficult because in Q1, we had developed 51% in multi-client this year, where we were very, very low, I don’t have the number in mind. But something like 36% last year at the same time.
So, this of course brings a lot of destruction in the price. But in contract price, clearly the contract price is lower obviously than in Q1 last year. It will be probably flattish minus in Q2, compared to last year as well, okay, because again Q2 last year was very high, okay. And the rest of the year will be to balance, as we said, the year would be flattish, we’ll be balancing the year in average compared to last year.
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Okay. And just one last question if I may, what is your current, so you talked about current work capacity in marine so the market that is not balanced with 65 vessels, where do you think in terms of number of vessels to market should we balance again, so how many vessels roughly needs to be over tie as a whole for the market to rebalance given the markets you’re seeing?
Jean-Georges Malcor
At the time being, we’re not far from being in the balanced market, okay. It really depends on the tenders, it depends on the synchronicity of the tender. If all the tenders were coming at the same time, and awarded at the same time, okay, we would probably see much better pricing that we see today. But they are staggered, they’re some coming at the right time, some are coming at the different time.
The transit in the regions are not, is not ideally synchronized. So it’s again is very difficult to give an average level of that.
What we can see today is that what we can say today sorry, that we are on our side taking our step to reduce the format of the fleet. I would even say almost we are less of the market conditions, because at the end of the day, we want to transform the company towards the three active pillars which are well balanced, okay.
In doing so, we are doing our – we are doing our duty if you want on our side. We are expecting all the other to do the same. So it’s – to answer your question, it’s a global industry question, not only our question. We’re expecting the other to do the same. You know that they are new capacity coming in this year. We would be expected, we would be expecting sorry, to see that this new capacity being offset by capacity getting out.
The indication we have to-date and again I encourage you to watch the question to our competitors, that the industry is prepared to take such steps. But let’s see how it will work during the year.
Bertrand Hodee – Raymond James
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Mick Pickup with Barclays.
Mick Pickup – Barclays
Good morning, gents. I have a couple of questions if I may. Firstly, just on the U.S. land and the Canadian land business, can you just tell me exactly what you’ve been doing there to try to get that back on track, I’ve seemed to have missed that earlier on?
And secondly, well then on renegotiating your debt further out to future, can you just talk about the covenants that are on that debt, I think I should be tracking those these days?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. I’ll leave the second one to Stephane-Paul, I’ll answer the first one. It is, we have been immediately activating from redundancy and reducing the teams in order to not to carry a cost base which is two-way and not sustained by the level of activity in those countries. So, it’s a straight work on the structure and redundancy.
Mick Pickup – Barclays
And that’s just a reaction to short-term market conditions or you believe those market conditions are here structurally?
Jean-Georges Malcor
We believe Mick that there are probably for the long-run, okay. And we want to desensitize, it’s not the real meaning, but we want to remove the sensitivity of the company on this particular market. We have already indicated so we are reducing the footprints very significantly in order to be able to – to be profitable at the trough of the activity. And the five cruise this year was very low compared to 9 last year. And so, we had to adapt to these new market conditions.
Mick Pickup – Barclays
Okay, thank you. On the covenants?
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Yes, on terms of covenants, Mick, don’t really meaning we are benefiting from very, very large head-rooms. So we have absolutely covenant issue looking forward. I remember that we have two kind of covenants, a coverage one which is that EBITDA should be at least three times of the interest so you see that there is a huge headroom in that matter that’s related to our high yield bond.
And related to our high grade facility, we have covenant related to our GAAP on our leverage. We see strip on 25 times so you see that we are also by far from this kind of ceiling of cap. So, there is meaning, in that regards, it was quite covenant light and CQ and then there is no big constraint on us.
Mick Pickup – Barclays
And that’s just balance sheet net debt to EBITDA or is it there is no fun as about leases and things?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Yes, yes, based on balance sheet items usually.
Mick Pickup – Barclays
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Caroline Hickson of UBS.
Caroline Hickson – UBS
Hi, there, just two questions from me. Firstly, operating costs and the elimination, sorry – the corporate cost and eliminations lining, your EBIT looks quite high. And higher than I think what other people were expecting. Is there anything driving this as it change in accounting and what should we expect going forward?
Jean-Georges Malcor
Stephane-Paul, this one is for you.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Yes. Again, it’s the elimination meaning we mentioned in our 6-K that looking at the elimination, what is related to the corporate costs, meaning the sample cost which is always in the same order of magnitude for quarter around $15 million to $16 million. And then, so that means so that you have – the difference you have the elimination and corresponding to the revenue and hope – and hopefully related revenues.
You have here an average gross margin of 23% to 25%, 24%, which is meaning the equivalent of and lineated gross margin. And that’s a combination of what is lineated at such a level and not that much. And what is eliminated at the acquisition level, which is this type a strong level and an important level because more than 60% of our fleet is dedicated to a title position.
But you have all the elements for making the calculation and keeping in mind that the elimination is not made at the EBIT level or OPIN level, but at the gross margin level that they spend you with the importance of their rate.
Caroline Hickson – UBS
Okay, thanks. And I understand that you’ve said that the outlook for 2014 is still uncertain. But can you give any ideas about the second quarter, I mean, you said first half will be weak but will 2Q be better than 1Q?
Jean-Georges Malcor
No, at the time being we don’t give any guidance. We’ve indicated that. This is clearly strongly linked to the perimeters that we are operating. In current situation with the perimeters – that the perimeter that we are operating as is today, okay, we are relatively in-line with global conferences for the year.
Okay, for the obviously, we are waiting very actively to adapt our fleet, to adapt our acquisition footprint. This will have an impact on our revenues and obviously the consensus will have to adapt to this new perimeter, when it would be known.
Caroline Hickson – UBS
Okay, thanks.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jean-Francois Granjon of OBGG.
Jean-Francois Granjon – Oddo Securities
Yes, good morning, from Oddo Securities. Just few questions regarding, the first one, regarding the financial cost after the refinancing program. Could you give us the saving amount you expect for the full year in terms of financial costs?
The second question regarding the operating margin for the acquisition business in the first quarter, you have reached the breakeven but you’re having some losses for the land business, could you give us the amount of the loss coming from the land business, with the acquisition for the first quarter?
And for SERCEL business, I understand that you want – don’t want to indicate any volume of sales for the full year. But could you give us some trend for the margin, EBIT margin for the full year after the poor level for the first quarter at 20%?
And the last question, regarding SERCEL, could you give us the impact or the ForEx of currency impacts, you mentioned the press-release and the press-release sorry, ForEx impact on the SERCEL business and margin, could you give us some more color about the impact in terms of margin of SERCEL for the first quarter? Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. I think that we have answered already a lot of weird questions Jean-Francois particularly on the cost of the debt, the cost of the interest of the debt and so on. But we can certainly give you a bit more.
On the, and I encourage you perhaps to talk to Catherine Katrina and Christophe as well if you want more detail. Do you want to comment on the exchange rate because this one we can answer?
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Sure, on the debt again, just I remind that we are the cost of debt of $189 million, $190 million for the whole year, a spread for the full quarter. And it will shift looking forward to a pattern of $175 million, so you can make the competition, again, it’s smooched the question of debt quarter-after-quarter. So, you have all the elements for the proposed calculation.
Looking at the fixed rate impact, keep in mind maybe two figures, first at the group level and again for the whole year, at the group level, we are exposed to €500 million cost basis. So, that means that it’s time well taking $0.10 sensitivity within the exchange rate (inaudible) income level for the whole group is $50 million. That’s the first point.
At SERCEL level, you can consider that the cost exposure is roughly €200 million to €250 million that means that the rate of $0.10 is an impact, a big impact of 20% to 25%. That’s the reason, why we said usually when we compare for example €138 which is a present exchange rate to project well, which is more €130 or the usual, which is more €130.
We used to say that it’s roughly $0.08 to $0.10 compared to what we have in mind but budgetary was. And that’s roughly 2% at the OPIN margin level for SERCEL.
Jean-Georges Malcor
And you had a question about the split of EBIT or OPIN between the marine and land, we don’t give this detail. What I can, the only thing I can tell you is that marine was positive in Q1 this year.
Jean-Francois Granjon – OBGG
Okay, thank you.
Operator
(Operator Instructions). The next question today is from Morten Nystrøm of Nordea.
Morten Nystrøm – Nordea
Yes, this is Morten from Nordea. I just have a question regarding the plan of de-rigging vessels. How many vessels do you have left to de-rig after what you did what you did on then in the first quarter?
Jean-Georges Malcor
We don’t comment on that, which is commercial and confidence, highly sensitive. We only think I can tell you is that we confirm our plan to go down to 13 vessels by 2016.
Morten Nystrøm – Nordea
Yes, but can you say how many vessels you have in the water now?
Jean-Georges Malcor
17.
Morten Nystrøm – Nordea
17, okay. Follow-up question on that, last year you saw one of your vessels which you de-rigged whilst taking on a new charter by a competitor. How can you be sure that this doesn’t happen with the vessels you’re planning to de-rig especially I would say the vessels which are owned by either this week? Is there any clause that prevent competitors for taking these vessels?
Jean-Georges Malcor
I mean, we are living in an open market. And once we de-rig the vessel, if somebody want to rig it again and operate it in the market, there is very little we can do. But what you have to keep in mind because I see where you’re coming from.
There is a feeling in the market that if we get rid of the vessels and the vessels are staying in the market, we are not solving the balance and supply-demand balance issue. First of all, we cannot be the only one to solve this balance, supply-balance issue, okay. We are prepared to take our share of the load, but no more, no less at this point. So you ever show to go and talk to your Norwegian friends, first.
Second, which is extremely important, okay. If in doing so, and if people wants to take a vessel which has been de-rigged to put it back in the market, if in doing so, we are delaying or cancelling or replacing the new-build. It is a contribution to the reduction of the fleet in the market. So, do your math from that one.
Morten Nystrøm – Nordea
Okay. Thanks. Another question, could you comment on the pricing in the backlog compared to what you executed in the first quarter on the marine side, is there any change in?
Jean-Georges Malcor
I can give you a copy of my next bid, let’s be serious. No, we don’t comment on that.
Morten Nystrøm – Nordea
Okay. Thank you.
Jean-Georges Malcor
Operator, this is the end of the call. Thank you.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Jean-Georges, you want to make…
Jean-Georges Malcor
Okay. So, thank you very much for attending the call. I will express little bit of frustration that we had absolutely no comment on question on GGR. I suspect it because you believe that GGR has been doing well during the quarter, this is our belief at least. So thank you for attending the call. And we’ll see you next time. Bye-bye.
Stephane-Paul Frydman
Thank you, bye.
Operator
That will conclude today’s conference call. And thank you for your participation. And ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect.
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Piper Jaffray out with interesting comments on Idenix Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:IDIX), saying their checks suggest disappointing Phase 2 SVR data for NM283 without ribavirin.
Since discontinuing high dose NM283 from the ongoing Phase 2 HCV treatment-naive study, IDIX has been optimistic that the efficacy of the low dose NM283 group would warrant clinical advancement. However, when firm compares 12 week data from the ongoing study for low dose NM283/Pegasys [PEG] (44% undetectable virus, UND) to data from recent U.S. based studies for PEG/ribavirin [RBV] (50%-60% UND), it suggests that low dose NM283 is no better than RBV, and may be inferior. Additionally, recent feedback from people close to the study has been discouraging, with one of firm's sources indicating 100% relapse, and two other sources indicating significant relapse rates.
Thus, not surprisingly, investors are keenly focused on the first ever clinical data for NM283 in combination with ribavirin [RBV], to be presented at the upcoming April EASL meeting. The primary endpoint of the study is at Day 36, although the study will dose 90 patients for 12 weeks, and will compare NM283/PEG/RBV to NM283/PEG to the standard of care PEG/RBV. While the early viral kinetic data will be presented at EASL, firm believes that the 12 week data is critical for assessing the future direction for this product based on the following (see page 2 for detailed analysis):
(1) the FDA required a full 12 week dataset for this study for a reason (VRTX and Roche have done only 4 week RBV interaction studies);
(2) 4-week data will be difficult to interpret given the small patient numbers UND at that time point (e.g. PEG/NM283 with 18% UND=5-6 patients)
(3) 12-week data will show greater UND rates making between group comparisons more meaningful (e.g. PEG/NM283 with 44% UND=13-14 patients)
Firm believes NM283 plus PEG/RBV needs to show improved anti-viral activity compared to PEG/RBV alone in order to advance into Phase 3 trials. Based on prior data as noted above, firm expects the minimal efficacy threshold for the triple combination to be UND rates of 65%-70% at 12 weeks. If there is no additive anti-viral activity for NM283 +PEG/RBV, firm questions the approvability of this regimen.
Notablecalls: Expect to see weakness in IDIX based on Piper's comments.
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Shaun White is being sued by the former drummer for his band Bad Things over claims of sexual harassment, bad business practices and failure to pay wages.
In a suit publicized Tuesday (Aug. 16), Lena Zawaideh accused the two-time Olympic gold medalist and X Games champion of sending her sexually explicit and graphic images, making vulgar sexual remarks and other crude behavior. The lawsuit also describes White as a hyper-controlling band leader, making demands on the way Zawaideh dressed, cut her hair and wore makeup. White also allegedly required his bandmates to travel with him during Olympics training and during a stint of several months when he wanted to live in New York rather than their Los Angeles base.
As well, it details and includes contractual agreements White -- who plays lead guitar in Bad Things -- demanded of his bandmates, threatening to fire them if they did not comply.
The suit includes select text messages from White to Zawaideh, in which White criticizes her dress and sends pornographic images in jest; TMZ posted images of those messages.
In statement released though attorney Kerry Garvis Wright, White said, "Many years ago, I exchanged texts with a friend who is now using them to craft a bogus lawsuit. There is absolutely no coincidence to the timing of her claims, and we will defend this vigorously in court."
The suit also describes White as an aggressive drunk, detailing recurring aggressive behavior while under the influence of alcohol.
In 2014, the suit reveals White stopped paying his bandmates but when their day jobs interfered with practicing he later reinstated pay to all but Zawaideh, allegedly because he believed that she "did not need the money." When she was fired later that year, she had not -- and still has not -- received her contractual retainer or pro-rata share of profits.
"I am pursuing this case because women should not have to tolerate harassment at work," Zawaideh said in a statement. "Shaun White should not be allowed to do whatever he wants just because he is famous. Although I am embarrassed to have been treated this way, I cannot sit by and watch him do this to other women."
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In recent years, fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs haven't been given many reasons to be hopeful about the future.
The arrival of James Reimer as a steadying influence in the crease has seemed to change that. For the time being, anyway.
The rabid, but impatient fan base in Toronto hasn't experienced a Stanley Cup title since 1967, and the current string of six straight seasons out of the playoffs has the faithful eagerly awaiting a player to deliver the Leafs from misery.
The spotlight will be on Reimer this year, as fans and hockey pundits alike try to determine if the 23-year-old netminder is the club's savior or if his impressive 37-game stretch in 2010-11 was just a mirage.
Of course, whether or not the Maple Leafs make the playoffs is not entirely up to Reimer. Toronto GM Brian Burke has made all kinds of moves since taking the reins in November of 2008, but his club is still very much a work in progress.
The team has room for improvement in all areas of the game, but it would be nice if Reimer could take goaltending off that list.
FORWARDS - Considering that the Maple Leafs finished 21st in the league in offense (2.60 goals per game) and 24th in defense (2.99 gpg), Reimer's ability to be a difference maker was a big reason the club even threatened for a playoff spot last season.
Burke hopes Toronto improved on both ends of the ice this offseason and his strategy on offense has been to get better down the middle. The Maple Leafs signed centermen Tim Connolly and traded for Matthew Lombardi this summer to help fix the pivot problem.
In fact, Toronto expects Connolly to jump into the No. 1 center spot alongside top winger Phil Kessel.
The 30-year-old Connolly played his last eight NHL seasons in Buffalo, but he was lured to Toronto this summer with a two-year, $9.5 million contract. His career-high point total of 65 came two years ago and Connolly had 42 points (13 goals, 29 assists) in 68 games with the Sabres last year.
Connolly is known as a playmaker and that bodes well for Kessel, who at 23 years of age has already compiled 128 NHL goals.
Kessel had a solid 2010-11 campaign, leading the team in both goals (32) and points (64), but everything the American sniper does is tempered by the trade that brought him to Toronto and the subsequent five-year, $27 million deal he signed to stay with the Leafs.
Burke gave up two first-round draft picks and a second-rounder to acquire Kessel from Boston and the fact that the 2011 Stanley Cup champion Bruins needed those selections a heck of a lot less than Toronto did understandably irks some people. Still, for better or worse, Kessel is Toronto's best player, although his minus-20 rating in 2010-11 needs to get better.
Either Joffrey Lupul or Clarke MacArthur will play the left wing opposite Kessel on the top line. MacArthur was second on the team with 62 points (21g, 41a) last year, while Lupul had nine goals and nine assists in 28 games after coming over in a trade with Anaheim.
Last year's top centerman Mikhail Grabovski will slide down to the second line after turning in career-bests last year in games played (81), goals (29) and assists (29). Although he's not expected to play with Kessel as much, the Leafs have another promising winger in Nikolai Kulemin to stick on the second unit.
Kulemin, the 44th overall pick by Toronto in the 2006 draft, had 15 and 16 goals in 2008-09 and 2009-10, respectively, before exploding for 30 markers last season. The Maple Leafs are counting on the 25-year-old Russian to approach, or even surpass, the 30-goal mark in 2011-12.
Lombardi, meanwhile, should be an upgrade as the third-line centerman, but he hasn't played since suffering a concussion with Nashville in the second game of last season. The 29-year-old Lombardi, who had 53 points (19g, 34a) in 78 games with Phoenix in 2009-10, signed a four-year deal with the Predators last summer. Lombardi was then acquired by Burke in a trade this offseason, and although he is questionable for the start of the season, he has made big strides towards getting back on the ice.
Left wing prospect Nazem Kadri will likely get his first full season in the NHL this year after posting just nine points (3g, 9a) in 29 games last year. The 20-year-old was the seventh overall pick of the 2009 draft and Toronto expects more from him in 2011-12.
It wouldn't be a Burke team without a legitimate enforcer and the Leafs certainly have one in winger Colton Orr, who amassed 128 penalty minutes in just 46 games last year.
DEFENSE - The Maple Leafs' blue line is loaded with size, but big isn't always better and that was the case last year when not one of the club's primary defensemen finished the 2010-11 season with a plus-rating.
Still, there is a ton of potential in the top pairing of Dion Phaneuf and Luke Schenn and the addition of John Michael-Liles and Cody Franson this summer should fill the offensive void left by the departure of Tomas Kaberle.
Phaneuf had his first season as Toronto's captain last year and he compiled eight goals and 30 points despite missing 16 games with a leg injury. The 26- year-old may not be worth the annual $6.5 million cap hit, but he still has a heavy slapshot from the point and is known to deliver huge hits.
While Phaneuf was a ninth overall pick by Calgary in 2003, the 21-year-old Schenn was taken by Toronto with the fifth pick in 2008. Schenn, who had a career-high 22 points (5g, 17a) in 2010-11, is coming along slowly, but the Leafs still believe he has the defensive ability to be an excellent shutdown guy in the NHL.
Carl Gunnarsson is another homegrown defensive prospect and he turned in a decent sophomore season last year, compiling 20 points (4g, 16a) over 68 games.
Liles proved himself as one of the better offensive defensemen in the league over the last several seasons in Colorado and Toronto, which acquired the 30- year-old in a trade this summer, and hopes he can carry that offense over to the Leafs. Liles had 275 points in 523 games with the Avalanche, including six goals and 40 assists last year. His puck-moving ability could help boost a power-play that ranked 22nd in the league in 2010-11.
Franson came over in the trade that landed Lombardi and the 24-year-old is coming off a strong sophomore campaign in the NHL. He recorded 29 points (8g, 21a) in 80 regular season games and added one goal and five assists in 12 playoff contests.
Also back to provide additional size and physicality on the Toronto blue line are Mike Komisarek (6-4, 243 pounds) and Keith Aulie (6-5, 217).
GOALTENDING - When the 2010-11 season started the Maple Leafs were happy about the tandem of Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson, but Reimer soon stole the spotlight from both netminders.
Reimer had an inauspicious NHL debut on December 20 of last year, mopping up after a poor Gustavsson start. However, by the end of year the 23-year-old would garner 35 starts and compile an impressive 20-10-5 record to go with an excellent .921 save percentage and a 2.60 goals-against average.
With Reimer installed as the main man in net the Leafs made an improbable run for a spot in the playoffs, but they wound up finishing 10th in the East and eight points out of a postseason berth. Not bad for a team that had just 13 wins before the New Year.
Reimer will enter this season as the clear No. 1 and that's a whole lot of pressure for a guy who was originally expected to spend a few more years in the AHL before his surprise 2010-11 campaign with the Leafs.
With Reimer earning a three-year, $5.4 million deal in the offseason, and Gustavsson signed through this season, the Maple Leafs let the veteran Giguere walk this summer.
Gustavsson needs to get better this season, even if he's been relegated to backing up Reimer. The man affectionately known as "The Monster" had a scary year in 2010-11, going 6-13-2 with a dreadful 3.29 GAA.
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE - The Maple Leafs are still a very young team in the middle of a long rebuilding period, so Reimer fever aside, fans in Toronto should temper their expectations for a playoff run this season. Still, it's hard to ignore how well the Leafs played down the stretch with Reimer and if he's able to pick up where he left off then Toronto could conceivably grab one of the last playoff spots in the East. First and foremost, this season should be about Toronto getting to a level where they compete for wins on a nightly basis. The club has laid many a stinker in recent seasons and until the Leafs prove they can be consistent, they won't be a playoff team.
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Charles Mann scored 19 points, Juwan Parker added 16 and Georgia overcame a slow start to beat Mississippi State 75-55 on Wednesday night.
Georgia trailed 22-8 midway through the first half and needed more than six minutes to make its first field goal.
But the momentum swung quickly. Georgia rallied for a 28-27 halftime lead and stretched its advantage to as many as 23 points late in the second half. Marcus Thornton added nine points and eight rebounds.
Georgia (13-10, 7-4 Southeastern Conference) is now tied with Mississippi for third place in the league. The Bulldogs meet the Rebels on Saturday in Athens, Ga.
Mississippi State (13-11, 3-8) has lost six straight. It was a miserable shooting night for MSU, which made just 3 of 25 attempts (12 percent) from 3-point range. Craig Sword led Mississippi State with 10 points.
Mann was 4 of 7 from the field and 10 of 11 on free throws. He also added six rebounds and five assists. Georgia shot 17 of 23 (73.9 percent) from the field in the second half.
Mississippi State jumped out to a 22-8 lead after a 3-pointer by Fred Thomas with 9:54 remaining in the first half. Georgia struggled to put anything in the basket early, missing its first eight shots before Brandon Morris finally knocked down a jumper.
Georgia coach Mark Fox used 12 players in the first half, trying to find a few who could produce some offense. Things started to turn when Fox put rarely-used freshman reserve Kenny Paul Geno into the game.
The 6-foot-6 Geno — a Booneville, Miss., native — scored six points as the Bulldogs rallied, going on a 20-5 run to take a 28-27 lead into halftime.
And the good times continued for Georgia early in the second half. The Bulldogs pounded their way inside for easy baskets and stretched their lead to 57-39 on Marcus Thornton's layup with 8:16 remaining. Georgia scored 40 points in the paint.
It was a bitter loss for Mississippi State, which squandered the 14-point first-half lead and was then embarrassed in the second half as Georgia picked apart its defense.
Now MSU faces two straight road games against Auburn and LSU before returning to Humphrey Coliseum.
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Follow David Brandt on Twitter: www.twitter.com/davidbrandtAP
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Even with the schedule working against him, Darcy Kuemper has been on a roll to start the season.
Kuemper made 26 saves for his third shutout of the season, and defenseman Jared Spurgeon had two assists to lead the Minnesota Wild past the Arizona Coyotes 2-0 on Thursday night.
The Wild have played only five games this season and have already endured breaks of six and four days in the first two weeks. But after a slow start, the Wild got second-period goals from Charlie Coyle and Jason Pominville to snap a two-game losing streak.
"You could tell that we hadn't played in a little while. It'll be nice here to play more games and get into a little bit more of a rhythm," Pominville said. "A lot of time off is fun to rest the body but we want to play. Practice is fun, but not that fun."
Kuemper has allowed just two goals in four starts, and has all three of Minnesota's victories this season.
"I thought he was really good. What I really liked was just how he's following the play," Wild coach Mike Yeo said. "I just thought he was very involved in the game, and obviously he got rewarded for it."
Arizona's Mike Smith entered the game having allowed at least four goals in each of his three starts this season. But he stopped 27 of 29 shots and blanked the Wild for all but a three-minute stretch early in the second period.
"I was hoping for a shutout. But it was better," Smith said. "The outcome is disappointing, but we were in the hockey game at least."
Coyle opened the scoring with his second goal of the season, and Pominville made it 2-0 less than four minutes later.
Smith stonewalled Zach Parise on a point-blank shot a minute and a half into the second, then smothered Parise's wrist shot from the left circle at the end of that shift.
But a minute later, Minnesota jumped ahead when Coyle redirected in Spurgeon's wrist shot from the high slot. Pominville doubled the lead when he completed a crisp passing play from Spurgeon and Parise by firing a slap shot that beat Smith over his right shoulder.
"I liked the way that we came out in the second period from the start," Yeo said. "We started to get more physically engaged in the game, we started to pressure more, and we started to attack more. Once that happened, I felt like we started to get some momentum."
Arizona appeared to have cut its deficit in half early in the third period when Kyle Chipchura slipped a shot past Kuemper, but B.J. Crombeen was in the crease, and the goal was disallowed due to interference.
"I haven't looked at it yet but it looked like he went in the crease," Coyotes coach Dave Tippett said. "They were pretty definitive on it. I'll have to get a look at it, but it's one of those things that you just have to deal with and move on."
Minnesota's power play woes continued, as the Wild went 0-for-3 to fall to 0-for-19 to start the season. But the Wild's penalty-killing unit maintained its strong play, blanking Arizona on two power plays. Minnesota has killed 14 of 15 penalties this season.
"We had a lot of good looks," Spurgeon said of Minnesota's power play. "They're just not going in for us right now. We've got to work on it and have got to bury them. That will be a difference in some games."
The Coyotes went on the power play with 7:30 to play when Spurgeon flung the puck over the boards in his defensive zone, but the Wild's Matt Cooke had the best scoring chance in the next two minutes as he narrowly missed converting an open-net opportunity with Smith out of position.
The Wild looked sluggish after their latest layoff and Arizona outshot Minnesota 6-2 in the opening five minutes. The Coyotes dictated the pace through much of the first period but the goalies kept it scoreless.
"It was nice just to get out of the first period and not have the light come on behind me," Smith said. "It's been a while since that happened."
NOTES: Arizona C Martin Hanzal missed the game with a lower-body injury. Coyotes RW David Moss left the game in the second period with an upper-body injury and didn't return. ... Minnesota was down a pair of defensemen as Keith Ballard and Christian Folin sat out because of illness.
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