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<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR Wæver remarks that ‘[a] frenzy for words like “epistemology” and “ontology” often signals this philosophical turn’ although he goes on to comment that these terms are often used loosely.4 However loosely deployed or not it is clear that debates concerning ontology and epistemology play a central role in the contemporary IR theory wars. In one respect this is unsurprising since it is a characteristic feature of the social sciences that periods of disciplinary disorientation involve recourse to reflection on the philosophical commitments of different theoretical approaches and there is no doubt that such reflection can play a valuable role in making explicit the commitments that characterise (and help individuate) diverse theoretical positions. Yet such a philosophical turn is not without its dangers and I will briefly mention three before turning to consider a confusion that has I will suggest helped to promote the IR theory wars by motivating this philosophical turn. The first danger with the philosophical turn is that it has an inbuilt tendency to prioritise issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and/or interpretive power as if the latter two were merely a simple function of the former. But while the explanatory and/or interpretive power of a theoretical account is not wholly independent of its ontological and/or epistemological commitments (otherwise criticism of these features would not be a criticism that had any value) it is by no means clear that it is in contrast wholly dependent on these philosophical commitments. Thus for example one need not be sympathetic to rational choice theoryto recognise that it can provide powerful accounts of certain kinds of problems such as the tragedy of the commons in which dilemmas of collective action are foregrounded. It may of course be the case that the advocates of rational choice theory cannot give a good account of why this type of theory is powerful in accounting for this class of problems (i.e. how it is that the relevant actors come to exhibit features in these circumstances that approximate the assumptions of rational choice theory) and if this is the case it is a philosophical weakness—but this does not undermine the point that for a certain class of problems rational choice theory may provide the best account available to us. In other words while the critical judgement of theoretical accounts in terms of their ontological and/or epistemological sophistication is one kind of critical judgement it is not the only or even necessarily the most important kind. The second danger run by the philosophical turn is that because prioritisation of ontology and epistemology promotes theory-construction from philosophical first principles it cultivates a theory-driven rather than problem-driven approach to IR. Paraphrasing Ian Shapiro the point can be put like this: since it is the case that there is always a plurality of possible true descriptions of a given action event or phenomenon the challenge is to decide which is the most apt in terms of getting a perspicuous grip on the action event or phenomenon in question given the purposes of the inquiry. yet from this standpoint ‘theory-driven work is part of a reductionist program’ in that it ‘dictates always opting for the description that calls for the explanation that flows from the preferred model or theory’.5 The justification offered for this strategy rests on the mistaken belief that it is necessary for social science because general explanations are required to characterise the classes of phenomena studied in similar terms. However as Shapiro points out this is to misunderstand the enterprise of science since ‘whether there are general explanations for classes of phenomena is a question for social-scientific inquiry not to be prejudged before conducting that inquiry’.6 Moreover this strategy easily slips into the promotion of the pursuit of generality over that of empirical validity. The third danger is that the preceding two combine to encourage the formation of a particular image of disciplinary debate in IR—what might be called (only slightly tongue in cheek) ‘the Highlander view’—namely an image of warring theoretical approaches with each despite occasional temporary tactical alliances dedicated to the strategic achievement of sovereignty over the disciplinary field. It encourages this view because the turn to and prioritisation of ontology and epistemology stimulatesthe idea that there can only be one theoretical approach which gets things right namely the theoretical approach that gets its ontology and epistemology right. This image feeds back into IR exacerbating the first and second dangers and so a potentially vicious circle arises. </source> [/INST] <claim>Prioritizing ontology and epistemology over specific policy formulations paralyzes problem solving measures ensuring short-term annihilation</claim> <psg> the philosophical turn has an inbuilt tendency to prioritise issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and or interpretive power . explanatory and/or interpretive power of a theoretical account is by no means dependent on philosophical commitments rational choice theory may provide the best account available to us prioritisation of ontology and epistemology cultivates a theory-driven rather than problem-driven approach ‘theory-driven work is part of a reductionist program’ in that it ‘dictates always opting for the description that calls for the explanation that flows from the preferred model or theory’ this strategy slips into the promotion of generality over empirical validity</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> With this look ahead at an ethics for the future we are touching at the same time upon the question of the future of freedom. The unavoidable discussion of this question seems to give rise to misunderstandings. My dire prognosis that not only our material standard of living but also our democratic freedoms would fall victim to the growing pressure of a worldwide ecological crisis until finally there would remain only some form of tyranny that would try to save the situation has led to the accusation that I am defending dictatorship as a solution to our problems. I shall ignore here what is a confusion between warning and recommendation. But I have indeed said that such a tyranny would still be better than total ruin. thus I have ethically accepted it as an alternative. I must now defend this standpoint which I continue to support before the court that I myself have created with the main argument of this essay. For are we not contradicting ourselves in prizing physical survival at the price of freedom? Did we not say that freedom was the condition of our capacity for responsibility—and that this capacity was a reason for the survival of humankind?. By tolerating tyranny as an alternative to physical annihilation are we not violating the principle we established: that the How of existence must not take precedence over its Why? Yet we can make a terrible concession to the primacy of physical survival in the conviction that the ontological capacity for freedom inseparable as it is from man's being cannot really be extinguished only temporarily banished from the public realm. This conviction can be supported by experience we are all familiar with. We have seen that even in the most totalitarian societies the urge for freedom on the part of some individuals cannot be extinguished and this renews our faith in human beings. Given this faith we have reason to hope that as long as there are human beings who survive the image of God will continue to exist along with them and will wait in concealment for its new hour. With that hope—which in this particular case takes precedence over fear—it is permissible for the sake of physical survival to accept if need be a temporary absence of freedom in the external affairs of humanity. This is I want to emphasize a worst-case scenario and it is the foremost task of responsibility at this particular moment in world history to prevent it from happening. This is in fact one of the noblest of duties (and at the same time one concerning self-preservation) on the part of the imperative of responsibility to avert future coercion that would lead to lack of freedom by acting freely in the present thus preserving as much as possible the ability of future generations to assume responsibility. But more than that is involved. At stake is the preservation of Earth's entire miracle of creation of which our human existence is a part and before which man reverently bows even without philosophical 'grounding.' Here too faith may precede and reason follow. it is faith that longs for this preservation of the Earth (fides quaerens intellectum) and reason comes as best it can to faith's aid with arguments not knowing or even asking how much depends on its success or failure in determining what action to take. With this confession of faith we come to the end of our essay on ontology. </source> [/INST] <claim>Extinction outweighs ontology – ontological capacity is inevitable – only extinction prevents true freedom</claim> <psg>tyranny would still be better than total ruin are we not contradicting ourselves in prizing physical survival at the price of freedom By tolerating tyranny as an alternative to physical annihilation are we not violating the principle we established: that the How of existence must not take precedence over its Why? Yet we can make a terrible concession to the primacy of physical survival in the conviction that the ontological capacity for freedom inseparable as it is from man's being cannot really be extinguished only temporarily banished from the public realm This conviction can be supported by experience we are all familiar with. We have seen that even in the most totalitarian societies the urge for freedom on the part of some individuals cannot be extinguished and this renews our faith in human beings . as long as there are human beings who survive the image of God will continue to exist along with them and will wait in concealment for its new hour. With that hope it is permissible for the sake of physical survival to accept if need be a temporary absence of freedom in the external affairs of humanity At stake is the preservation of Earth's entire miracle of creation of which our human existence is a part and before which man reverently bows even without philosophical 'grounding.' </psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> To be sure Fox sees the need for our undergoing “certain fundamental changes” in our “thinking beliefs attitudes values” and Zimmerman calls for a “paradigm shift” in our thinking about ourselves other and the Earth. But it is not clear that what either offers as suggestions for what we can must or should do in the face of a runaway arms race are sufficient to “wind down” the arms race before it leads to omnicide. In spite of the importance of Fox’s analysis and reminders it is not clear that “admitting our (nuclear) fear and anxiety” to ourselves and “identifying the mechanisms that dull or mask our emotional and other responses” represent much more than examples of basic often. stated principles of psychotherapy. Being aware of the psychological maneuvers that keep us numb to nuclear reality may well be the road to transcending them but it must only be a “first step” (as Fox acknowledges) during which we Simultaneously act to eliminate nuclear threats break our complicity with the ams race get rid of arsenals of genocidal weaponry and create conditions for international goodwill mutual trust and creative interdependence. Similarly in respect to Zimmerman: in spite of the challenging Heideggerian insights he brings out regarding what motivates the arms race many questions may be raised about his prescribed “solutions.” Given our need for a paradigm shift in our (distorted) understanding of ourselves and the rest of being are we merely left “to prepare for a possible shift in our self-understanding? (italics mine)? Is this all we can do? Is it necessarily the case that such a shift “cannot come as a result of our own will?” – and work – but only from “a destiny outside our control?” Does this mean we leave to God the matter of bringing about a paradigm shift? Granted our fears and the importance of not being controlled by fears as well as our “anthropocentric leanings ” should we be as cautious as Zimmerman suggests about out disposition “to want to do something” or “to act decisively in the face of the current threat?” In spite of the importance of our taking on the anxiety of our finitude and our present limitation does it follow that “we should be willing for the worst (i.e. an all-out nuclear war) to occur”? Zimmerman wrongly I contend equates “resistance” with “denial” when he says that “as long as we resist and deny the possibility of nuclear war that possibility will persist and grow stronger.” He also wrongly perceives “resistance” as presupposing a clinging to the “order of things that now prevails.” Resistance connotes opposing and striving to defeat a prevailing state of affairs that would allow or encourage the “worst to occur.” I submit against Zimmerman that we should not in any sense be willing for nuclear war or omnicide to occur. (This is not to suggest that we should be numb to the possibility of its occurrence.) Despite Zimmerman’s elaborations and refinements his Heideggerian notion of “letting beings be” continues to be too permissive in this regard. In my judgment an individual’s decision not to act against and resist his or her government’s preparations for nuclear holocaust is as I have argued elsewhere to be an early accomplice to the most horrendous crime against life imaginable – its annihilation. The Nuremburg tradition calls not only for a new way of thinking a “new internationalism” in which we all become co-nurturers of the whole planet but for resolute actions that will sever our complicity with nuclear criminality and the genocidal arms race and work to achieve a future which we can no longer assume. We must not only “come face to face with the unthinkable in image and thought” (Fox) but must act now - with a “new consciousness” and conscience - to prevent the unthinkable by cleansing the earth of nuclear weaponry. Only when that is achieved wll ultimate violence be removed as the final arbiter of our planet’s fate. </source> [/INST] <claim>Their alternative dooms us to extinction – only pragmatic political action can solve and allow the space for metaphysical investigation. This also answers their argument that ontology outweighs nuclear war </claim> <psg>Zimmerman calls for a “paradigm shift” it is not clear that suggestions are sufficient to “wind down” the arms race before it leads to omnicide does it follow that “we should be willing an all-out nuclear war) to occur”? Zimmerman wrongly equates “resistance” with “denial” “letting beings be” continues to be too permissive an individual’s decision not to act against and resist his or her government’s preparations for nuclear holocaust is to be an early accomplice to the most horrendous crime against life imaginable – its annihilation.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> RAY SUAREZ: As cameras flashed the newly re-elected U.S. president met this afternoon with the newly elected president of Mexico Enrique Pena Nieto who takes office Saturday. BARACK OBAMA: Mexico has become not simply an important bilateral partner but is today a very important multilateral multinational leader on a whole range of issues from energy to climate change. And we look forward to working with Mexico not only on regional issues but also on global issues. ENRIQUE PENA NIETO Mexican president-elect (through translator): We also share a very important vision a vision of creating more jobs. We know this is very important not only for the American people but also for the Mexican people for both our nations but not only that. We also have the opportunity to integrate North America to be participating in this part of the world. RAY SUAREZ: Their most immediate challenge may be the surge of drug violence in recent years. Outgoing Mexican President Felipe Calderon waged war on the cartels at a cost of 60 000 dead over six years. But last summer Pena Nieto told the NewsHour's Margaret Warner there has to be a better way. ENRIQUE PENA NIETO (through translator): It is very clear that after several years of this fight on drug trafficking we have more drug consumption and drug use and drug trafficking. That means that we're not moving in the right direction. Things are not working. And I'm not saying that we should legalize. It's exactly the opposite. I'm against legalization but with a debate where countries in the hemisphere and especially the U.S. should participate in this broad debate to redefine the way in which we fight drug trafficking. RAY SUAREZ: The two presidents will also have to confront illegal immigration from Mexico to the U.S. The issue was largely ignored by Mr. Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in the fall campaign. Since Election Day when they lost Latino voters by a lopsided margin Republicans have begun joining calls for reforms. It's also an issue with potential economic repercussions on both sides of the border. Mexico and the U.S. have become vital trading partners as the Mexican economy booms. It now ranks as the second largest Latin American economy behind Brazil's. RAY SUAREZ: For more on the president's meeting with Pena Nieto and the U.S. and Mexico's war on drugs I'm joined by Shannon O'Neil a senior fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael Shifter president of the Inter-American Dialogue. Shannon O'Neil first to you. At any given moment the president of these two countries have plenty to talk about. But at this very moment with two new administrations about to begin what are the top agenda items in the Mexico-U.S. relationship? SHANNON O'NEIL Council on Foreign Relations: Well as you heard from the press release one of the big issues that Mexico comes with is the economic issue and the economic ties between the two nations. Mexico is coming and wanting to bring this fully on to the agenda. It played second fiddle to security over the last presidency of President Calderon. So they're coming and saying this is a big issue for Mexico. It's also a big issue for the United States. So that was front and center today and will be as these teams go forward talking to each other. </source> [/INST] <claim>Economic ties are a priority for Mexico </claim> <psg>U.S. president met with the president of Mexico Enrique Pena Nieto Mexico has become not simply an important bilateral partner but a very important multilateral multinational leader on issues from energy to climate change we look forward to working with Mexico on global issues We share a vision to integrate North America Their most immediate challenge may be the surge of drug violence Mexico and the U.S. have become vital trading partners what are the top agenda items in the Mexico-U.S. relationship? one of the big issues that Mexico comes with is the economic issue Mexico is wanting to bring this fully on to the agenda. It played second fiddle to security this is a big issue for Mexico</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Two issues -- security and immigration -- often get too much attention when it comes to talking about the U.S.-Mexico relationship U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday. Now Obama said it's time to forge deeper economic connections to create more jobs and more trade on both sides of the border. 'That's the focus of my visit ' he told reporters after meeting with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto in the country's capital. But even as Obama and Peña Nieto pushed to shift the tone more toward trade and economics security issues loomed large over Thursday's meeting. Obama visiting major trade partners Obama faces reality in Mexico drug war Peña Nieto said his government remains committed to fighting organized crime but that the United States and Mexico must 'cooperate on the basis of mutual respect to be more efficient in our security strategy that we are implementing in Mexico.' Obama stressed that the countries will continue to cooperate closely on security but he didn't specify how. 'I agreed to continue our close cooperation on security even as that nature of that close cooperation will evolve ' he said. It's up to the Mexican people Obama said 'to determine their security structures and how it engages with other nations including the United States.' In the meantime he said the United States remains committed to reducing the demand for drugs north of the border and the southward flow of illegal guns and cash that help fuel violence. 'I think it's natural that a new administration here in Mexico is looking carefully at how it's going to approach what is obviously a serious problem ' Obama said 'and we are very much looking forward to cooperating in any ways that we can to battle organized crime.' High-profile cartel takedowns were a hallmark of former President Felipe Calderon's tenure. Peña Nieto has vowed to take a different approach focusing more on education problems and social inequality that he says fuel drug violence. The details of his policies are still coming into focus and analysts say his government has deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight. Before Obama's arrival a spate of news reports this week on both sides of the border detailed changes in how Mexico cooperates with the United States. Under the new rules all U.S. requests for collaboration with Mexican agencies will flow through a single office Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong told Mexico's state-run Notimex news agency. It is a drastic change from recent years when U.S. agents enjoyed widespread access to their Mexican counterparts. Critics have expressed concerns that Peña Nieto's government will turn a blind eye to cartels or negotiate with them -- something he repeatedly denied on the campaign trail last year. On Tuesday -- two days before Obama's arrival -- his government arrested the father-in-law of Joaquin 'El Chapo' Guzman head of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel and one of the country's most-wanted drug lords. Speaking to reporters after his meeting with Obama on Thursday Peña Nieto emphasized the importance of reducing violence and also the importance of Mexico's relationship with the United States extending beyond the drug war. 'We don't want to make this relationship targeted on one single issue ' he said. 'We want to place particular emphasis on the potential in the economic relationship between Mexico and the United States.' </source> [/INST] <claim>Security and immigration don’t solve – Nieto wants an economic partnership</claim> <psg>security and immigration get too much attention when it comes to the U.S.-Mexico relationship it's time to forge deeper economic connections to create more jobs and more trade on both sides of the border. But even as Obama and Nieto pushed to shift the tone toward trade and economics security issues loomed large Nieto said the U S and Mexico must 'cooperate on the basis of mutual respect Nieto vowed to take a different approach his government deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight. It is a drastic change Nieto emphasized the importance of Mexico's relationship with the U S extending beyond the drug war. 'We don't want to make this relationship targeted on one single issue We want to place particular emphasis on the potential in the economic relationship between Mexico and the U S</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The border situation at its core is not an economic issue a cultural issue or a racial issue. It is a national security issue. The record is unmistakably clear. In 2001 [1] the brother of a Hezb'allah military chief illegally entered the United States by crossing the Mexican border. He then settled in Dearborn Michigan and raised money for Hezb'allah [2]. In 2002 illegal immigrants from Lebanon who were thought to have ties to Hezb'allah were smuggled into the United States via the Mexican border according to a congressional report: In December 2002 Salim Boughader Mucharrafille a café owner in Tijuana Mexico was arrested for illegally smuggling more than two hundred Lebanese illegally into the United States including several believed to have terrorist ties to Hezbollah [3]. The congressional report also revealed that the FBI has confirmed that persons from al-Qaeda-linked nations have been known to disguise themselves as Hispanic immigrants: Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller has confirmed in testimony 'that there are individuals from countries with known al-Qa'ida connections who are changing their Islamic surnames to Hispanic-sounding names and obtaining false Hispanic identities learning to speak Spanish and pretending to be Hispanic Immigrants [4]. Furthermore the report contained this sobering assessment of the border situation by Sigifredo Gonzalez Jr. sheriff of Zapata County in Texas: I dare to say that at any given time daytime or nighttime one can get on a boat and traverse back and forth between Texas and Mexico and not get caught. If smugglers can bring in tons of marijuana and cocaine at one time and can smuggle 20 to 30 persons at one time one can just imagine how easy it would be to bring in 2 to 3 terrorists or their weapons of mass destruction across the river and not be detected. Chances of apprehension are very slim [5]. And terrorists indeed have set their eyes on the vulnerability of our border. Just last year an al-Qaeda recruiting video put forth this plot: Four pounds of anthrax -- in a suitcase this big -- carried by a fighter through tunnels from Mexico into the U.S. are guaranteed to kill 330 000 Americans within a single hour if it is properly spread in population centers there. What a horrifying idea. 9/11 will be small change in comparison....There is no need for airplanes conspiracies timings and so on [6]. Yet plotting to take advantage of the Mexican border is not new to al-Qaeda. Back in 2004 a Time magazine article reported that captured al-Qaeda operative Sharif al-Masri had said that al-Qaeda had considered smuggling nuclear materials into the United States through Mexico. The article also revealed that 'U.S. and Mexican intelligence conferred about reports from several al-Qaeda detainees indicating the potential use of Mexico as a staging area 'to acquire end-stage chemical biological radiological and nuclear material' [7]. </source> [/INST] <claim>The threat of border terrorism is real – nuclear chemical and biological WMD smuggling </claim> <psg>The border situation is a national security issue. The record is unmistakably clear. In 2001 the brother of a Hezb'allah military chief illegally entered the U S by crossing the Mexican border illegal immigrants from Lebanon were smuggled into the U S via the Mexican border the FBI has confirmed that persons from al-Qaeda-linked nations have been known to disguise themselves as Hispanic immigrants at any given time one can get on a boat and traverse back and forth between Texas and Mexico and not get caught. If smugglers can bring in tons of marijuana and cocaine at one time one can just imagine how easy it would be to bring in 2 to 3 terrorists or their weapons of mass destruction across and not be detected. Chances of apprehension are very slim terrorists set their eyes on the vulnerability of our border. plotting to take advantage of the Mexican border is not new to al-Qaeda. al-Qaeda had considered smuggling nuclear materials into the U S through Mexico .S. and Mexican intelligence conferred about reports from several al-Qaeda detainees indicating the use of Mexico as a staging area 'to acquire end-stage chemical biological radiological and nuclear material</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> What all scholars and observers agree including skeptical Khor is that Mexico was perceived as a fair and honest host. Major negotiating blocs and key countries were able to see at least one of their top priorities in the final agreement while remaining flexible on other pieces to find common ground. The COP president managed to put together a package that required everyone to compromise but not so much that a country could not agree to the final package (Morgan 2010). Reward and coercion tactics - Mexico is one of the first developing countries who announced the voluntary emission reduction targets. Mexico also suggested the creation of the Green Climate Fund which was eventually adopted as a part of the COP decision. Mexico’s commitment to participate in the global effort to curb climate change and its ownership of the finance agenda cast the government as a genuine partner in international cooperation. Personal Skills (diplomacy) C. Findings - Under the full support from the Mexican President Felipe Calderon the Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister Patricia Espinoza took assumed the role of President and led the entire process of COP16 from opening to closing. Her close cooperation with the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Secretariat Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica brought the COP16 to a successful conclusion. The impressive performance of two women from Latin America set an inspiring precedent (Araya 2011). This is compared by the COP15 where both the COP president and the Executive Secretary were from rich western countries. The impasse at the UNFCCC negotiations was mostly due to mistrust between the parties particularly between developing and developed. This particular characteristic of the climate negotiations’ deadlock may be recuced when the negotiations are led by a developing country. The international environment and nature of issues during the two negotiations were overall similar. The conflict between developed and developing countries was wide and deep and the issues involved in the negotiations were complex in nature with various interests at stake. The two presidencies adopted different approaches. while Denmark tried to raise international awareness of the importance of reaching an agreement Mexico downplayed the expected outcome of the negotiation. As a result parties at Copenhagen were extremely anxious for the contents of a possible outcome which created a more contentious environment. On the other hand parties at Cancun were concerned about the total failure of negotiations which made negotiators more cooperative in reaching an agreement. Organization-specific features particularly the consensus-based decision making rules were the same in both negotiations. However Denmark and Mexico took different approaches. While the Danish presidency failed to formalize the Copenhagen Accord as a UN document due to a few countries’ objection Mexico overcame the objection and successfully announced the Cancun Agreements as COP decisions. The Mexican president saved the Cancun Agreements from a veto by saying “consensus is not unanimity.” Although the Mexican government’s approach is controversial it was a creative interpretation of the decision making rule of the institution which received general acceptance by other parties. The two presidencies also differ in employing leadership tactics effectively. Observation tactics: Mexico was in a better position to have more information regarding parties’ positions and bottom-lines because the Cancun negotiation was basically an extension of the Copenhagen negotiations. More information on positions and options was available after Copenhagen. Also it sought after close communication and cooperation with countries in Latin America with which Mexico exercised an effective leadership throughout the COP meeting. Formation tactics: While Denmark failed in agenda management (e.g. scandal over leakage of Danish single-text earlier in the COP meetings) and procedural management of sub-groups and small-group meetings (due to a lack of transparency and inclusiveness) Mexico succeeded in both. Instead of focusing on mitigation issues Mexico’s single text focused on finance adaptation and technology transfer issues which could attract both developed and developing countries. Also Mexico maintained transparency and inclusiveness throughout the process which increased its legitimacy as an honest broker and impartial chair. </source> [/INST] <claim>Mexico is key to international climate cooperation </claim> <psg>all scholars and observers agree that Mexico was a fair and honest host. Major negotiating blocs and key countries were able to see at least one of their top priorities in the final agreement while remaining flexible on other pieces to find common ground Mexico’s commitment to participate in the global effort to curb climate change cast the government as a genuine partner in international cooperation. Mexico downplayed the expected outcome of the negotiation. parties were concerned about the total failure of negotiations which made negotiators more cooperative in reaching an agreement. The Mexican president saved the Cancun Agreements from a veto by saying “consensus is not unanimity.” it was a creative interpretation of the decision making rule of the institution which received general acceptance by other parties. Mexico was in a better position to have more information regarding parties’ positions and bottom-lines in agenda management and procedural management of sub-groups and small-group meetings Mexico succeeded Instead of focusing on mitigation issues Mexico’s single text focused on finance adaptation and tech transfer issues which attract developed and developing countries Mexico maintained transparency and inclusiveness throughout the process which increased its legitimacy as an honest broker and impartial chair.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> In December 2010 the 16th Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ended with adopting Cancun Agreements as official decisions under the UN process. The international community determined the meeting a success. This was a substantial change compared to the previous year’s Copenhagen climate conference which failed to reach consensus at the official level and thus having come under severe criticism as “diplomatic failure”. This paper aims to explain the stark contrast between the two consecutive COP meetings and argues that the leadership style of the president of the conference is one important factor propelling negotiations forward. While current literature scarcely addresses the role of the president this paper explores multiple variables that condition the president’s effectiveness in moving negotiations forward. This paper concludes that the Mexican government successfully chaired the negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability which the Danish government lacked. In particular its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators which in turn made the parties tend to cooperate better. More importantly the case study reveals that the Mexican government had a significant influence on given conditions of the negotiation process such as the international environment surrounding the negotiation and the decision making rules. </source> [/INST] <claim>Mexico is a key player in climate agreements </claim> <psg>United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change determined a success the Mexican government successfully chaired negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators which made the parties cooperate better the Mexican government had a significant influence on conditions of the negotiation process</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> This paper concludes that the Mexican government successfully chaired the negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability. In particular its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators which in turn made the parties tend to cooperate better. More importantly the case study reveals that the Mexican government had a significant influence on given conditions of the negotiation process such as the international environment surrounding the negotiation and the decision making rules. The Mexican government’s skillful management tactics and leadership in shaping the context of the bargaining further helped the deadlocked negotiations to reach a global deal. </source> [/INST] <claim>Mexico is extremely significant in international climate cooperation </claim> <psg>the Mexican government successfully chaired negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators which made the parties cooperate better. the Mexican government had significant influence on negotiation such as the international environment surrounding the negotiation and the decision making rules. The Mexican government’s skillful management tactics and leadership in shaping the context of the bargaining further helped negotiations to reach a global deal.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The Copenhagen experience has served as a strong reminder of the importance of inclusiveness and transparency in ensuring genuine multilateral cooperation in addressing climate change (Vina Ang & Dulce 2011). After having watched ‘Hopenhagen’ result in ‘Brokenhagen ’ interest and expectation among civil society and international media as well as politicians around the world was substantially lower than the year before. At the same time however there was significant pressure on UNFCCC negotiators to make the Cancun meeting a success. Failure would have meant the end of the UNFCCC process which most governments wanted to avoid. This likely increased the negotiators’ willingness to find solutions and make compromise. The Mexican presidency was well aware of these dynamics. During the intercessional meetings in 2010 the Mexican presidency saw the significance of delicately producing a negotiation text which reflected “a balanced set of outcomes.” The Mexican Presidency deliberately emphasized that the goal of Cancun was to adopt a “package of decisions” at the conclusion of the Cancun climate meeting in December 2010 (Vina Ang & Dulce 2011). At the beginning of the Cancun Conference it was made clear by several Parties that they interpreted a “balanced package” as one that respected the two-track approach of the AGW-LCA and AWG-KP balanced elements of the Bali Action Plan reflected a degree of balance in detail and did not require a future legally-binding outcome (Vina Ang & Dulce 2011). The complexity of the climate change issue was the same and the conflicting interests between developing and developed countries were the same as the previous year. However the Mexican president was a key player setting the right tone for the negotiation atmosphere and diligently achieved the realistic goal of the Cancun meeting aspired by parties involved. </source> [/INST] <claim>Mexico’s approach to climate is key to reaching a deal </claim> <psg>The Copenhagen experience served as a reminder of the importance of inclusiveness and transparency in ensuring genuine multilateral cooperation in addressing climate change the Mexican presidency saw the significance of producing a negotiation text which reflected “a balanced set of outcomes.” The Mexican Presidency emphasized the goal to adopt a “package of decisions” at the conclusion of the Cancun climate meeting the Mexican president was a key player setting the right tone for the negotiation atmosphere and diligently achieved the realistic goal of the meeting</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> However environmental degradation itself is costly: more than 3% in Syria Lebanon Algeria Morocco during the various years 8% of GDP in Iran in 2002 (Croitoru and Sarraf 2010). Further much of environmental destruction is driven by market failures and inefficient policies. Correcting them can therefore result in a more efficient and productive economy with increased output and prosperity. It may be possible to have green growth without too much of a cost and possibly with some significant benefits. Reconciling the three pillars of sustainable development does require policy efforts particularly for the environmental one. Green growth policies are a critical part of such efforts and an essential part of implementing sustainable development. Defining green growth Green growth is about making growth processes resource-efficient cleaner and more resilient without necessarily slowing them. Is it feasible? Direct contributions of environmental protection to economic growth are possible because the environment which we can also think of as natural capital is an input into the national production function and environmental conservation can lead to increased inputs of natural capital and thus to an increase in income. The use of environmental assets is generally characterized by market failures – external costs and ill-defined property rights being common – and correcting these market failures can increase the effective supply of natural capital an important input to the production function hence increasing output. it can also increase human well-being directly by improving air and water quality something that is not necessarily captured by conventional GDP statistics but is nevertheless the ultimate goal of economic policy. Indirect contributions of environmental protection to economic growth are also possible because world economies are far from their “optimum.” Indeed there are many market failures that are not directly due to environmental issues but that have negative consequences on the environment and the economy. Correcting these market failures thus has co-benefits that go beyond the environment. An obvious example is urban congestion which causes air pollution but also reduces the productivity and economies of scope typically offered by cities. These phenomena are not normally captured in analytical models of economic growth partly because these do not generally model the role of natural capital in economic growth and partly because they assume a first-best world. Moreover the specification of the micro foundations of the growth process is at best weak in aggregative growth models. Since the potential for accelerated income growth thanks to green growth policies arises from market failures they cannot be assessed using models unable to represent these market failures. Only models that represent unemployment and imperfection in the labor market can for instance investigate the gains from green policies in terms of jobs and employment. This paper aims at clarifying these concepts in an analytical framework and at proposing foundations for green growth starting from and building on the long tradition of adapting growth theory to include the environment (e.g. Nordhaus 1972. Dasgupta and Heal 1974. Solow 1974). The next section examines the analytical case for green growth putting it in the context of existing growth paradigms. We then discuss the link with welfare—which is what we care about rather than growth per se. Section 4 explains the flaws in the “grow now clean up later” argument and presents the analytical case for urgency. Section 5 reviews policy instruments to push our economies towards greener growth path arguing that a narrow reliance on prices will not solve problems characterized by multiple market failures and behavioral challenges and that green strategies must rely on a broad policy mix. The last section concludes with key findings:  There is a strong analytical case for green growth and one can identify channels that are theoretically able to make green policies contribute to economic growth. however detailed and country- and context-specific analyses of each of these channels are required to conclude that this will in fact happen in any specific situation.  Looking at economic development and environmental protection in a common framework enables us to identify substantial synergies between them.  Social and political acceptability of green growth policies requires maximizing and highlighting benefits and co-benefits including potential positive impacts on poverty alleviation and job creation as well as managing unavoidable trade-offs.  Green growth policies need to focus on what needs to happen over the next 5-10 years before the world gets locked into settlement and production patterns that would be prohibitively expensive and complex to modify. </source> [/INST] <claim>Green growth policies solve warming – now is crucial </claim> <psg>environmental degradation is costly much of environmental destruction is driven by market failures and inefficient policies. Correcting them result in a more efficient and productive economy with increased output and prosperity. It may be possible to have green growth without cost and with significant benefits. Green growth policies are critical and essential part of implementing sustainable development. Green growth is about making growth processes resource-efficient cleaner and more resilient Direct contributions of environmental protection to economic growth are possible the environment is an input into national production environmental conservation lead to increased inputs of natural capital and thus to an increase in income. correcting market failures increase the effective supply of natural capital hence increasing output. it can also increase human well-being directly by improving air and water quality green strategies must rely on a broad policy mix. There is a strong analytical case for green growth one can identify channels that make green policies contribute to economic growth Looking at economic development and environmental protection in a common framework enables us to identify substantial synergies between them. acceptability of green growth policies requires maximizing and highlighting benefits including positive impacts on poverty alleviation and job creation policies need to focus on the next 5-10 years before the world gets locked into production patterns </psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Hydroelectric and geothermal power are considered near-term sources of renewable carbon-free hydrogen. Geothermal energy is an under-exploited source of renewable hydrogen (Hoffmann calls it “the Sleeper resource” [70]). According to some estimates 15 GW of new geothermal capacity will be developed over the next decade [7]. Iceland and Hawaii could potentially build their hydrogen economies based to a large extent on geothermal energy. The outlook for this technology depends on three factors: resource availability reducing costs and technology improvement. U.S. DOE's Geothermal Technologies Center estimates that new geothermal plants are expected to operate at the costs in the range of 4–6 cents per kW h [7]. There is a renewed interest in OTEC. The techno-economic analysis suggests that the cost of electrical energy produced by an OTEC plant would be between a half and one-third of that of PV electricity [82]. Summarizing the renewable energy section it is evident that although renewable resources currently produce insignificant fraction of the total energy output they have an enormous technical and economical potential to meet global energy needs without an adverse environmental impact. In some areas they are already competing with fossil-based electricity and hydrogen. Among the renewable resources currently wind energy can generate hydrogen at the lowest price and this tendency will most likely remain in the future (In a recent survey of different renewable resources for hydrogen production the authors concluded that wind-powered hydrogen may become a basis of the future hydrogen economy [11]). </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables solve fast – no adverse impacts </claim> <psg>Hydroelectric and geothermal power are near-term sources of renewable carbon-free hydrogen 15 GW of new geothermal capacity will be developed over the next decade outlook for this technology depends on resource availability reducing costs and technology improvement the cost of electrical energy produced by an OTEC plant would be between a half and one-third of that of PV electricity although renewable resources produce insignificant fraction of the total energy output they have an enormous technical and economical potential to meet global energy needs without an adverse environmental impact</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Renewable energy is not a new concept but it continues to rapidly emerge as an alternative to fossil fuels and other deleterious energy sources. The potential of renewable energy sources is enormous as they in theory can produce many times the world's total energy demand. For example some studies have indicated that roughly 1000 times the global energy requirement can be fulfilled by using solar energy. however only 0.02% of this energy is currently utilized [3]. Renewable energy sources such as biomass wind solar hydropower and geothermal can provide sustainable energy services based on the utilization of routinely available indigenous resources. A transition to renewable energy systems is increasingly likely as their costs continue to decline while the cost of fossil fuels continues to rise. In the past 30 years solar and wind power systems have continued to improve their performance characteristics and have experienced rapid sales growth. The capital and generation costs associated with such systems have also been reduced significantly. Because of these developments market opportunities now exist to both innovate and take advantage of emerging markets in order to promote renewable energy technologies particularly with additional assistance of governmental and popular sentiment. The development and use of renewable energy sources can enhance diversity in energy supply markets contribute to securing long term sustainable energy supplies help reduce local and global atmospheric emissions and provide commercially attractive options to meet specific energy service needs. The use of renewable energy is also becoming increasingly important to slow the effects of climate change. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables are successful and can be deployed </claim> <psg>Renewable energy continues to rapidly emerge as an alternative to fossil fuels and other deleterious energy sources. potential of renewable energy sources is enormous as they can produce many times the world's total energy demand. studies indicated that 1000 times the global energy requirement can be fulfilled by solar energy Renewable energy sources provide sustainable energy services based on utilization of routinely available indigenous resources. A transition to renewable energy is increasingly likely solar and wind power systems have continued to improve market opportunities exist to innovate and take advantage of emerging markets to promote renewable energy with additional assistance of government renewable energy enhance diversity in energy supply markets contribute to securing long term sustainable energy supplies reduce local and global atmospheric emissions and provide commercially attractive options to meet energy needs renewable energy slow climate change</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Measured by environmental impact and economic importance the electricity industry is one of the most important sectors of the American economy. The generation of electricity is responsible for 38 percent of all U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and one third of all U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector is the largest single source of these emissions. It is also the largest source of sulfur dioxide (SO2) oxides of nitrogen (NOX) small particles and other air pollutants. At the same time electricity is critical to the U.S. economy. Recent annual national expenditures on electricity totaled $250 billion—making the electricity sector’s share of overall GDP larger than that of the automobile manufacturing industry and roughly equal in magnitude to that of the telecommunications industry. Expenditures alone however understate the importance of electricity to the U.S. economy. Nearly every aspect of productive activity and daily life in a modern economy depends on electricity for which there is in many cases no close substitute. As the most desirable form of energy for many uses electricity use has grown faster than GDP. The Internet and computers would not operate without very reliable high-quality electricity. Electricity also plays a major role in delivering modern comforts and easing household tasks from running heating and cooling systems to washing clothes and dishes. It plays an even more important role in the commercial manufacturing and agricultural sectors where it provides lighting and powers a variety of machines. In short it is hard to imagine a modern economy functioning without large amounts of reliable high-quality electricity. The economic and environmental importance of the electric power industry is moreover likely to grow in coming decades. Electricity demand has increased steadily over the last three decades and is projected to continue rising in the future despite ongoing improvements in end-use efficiency. The industry meanwhile has undergone dramatic structural changes over the last 10 years moving from a system of monopolies subject to state price regulation to a mixed system that now includes some elements of market competition in many states. After declining for 75 years electricity prices have risen since 1970 making expenditures for carbon control a difficult proposition in the absence of mandatory GHG policy. The uncertain state of electricity market restructuring efforts around the country particularly since the California crisis of 2001-2002 has increased perceptions of investor risk and sharply raised the cost of borrowing for capital investments by investor-owned utilities. In this context reconciling growing demand for affordable and reliable electricity supplies with the need for substantial reductions in GHG and criteria pollutant emissions presents a significant challenge for policy-makers and for the electricity industry itself. Indeed even if worldwide growth in demand for electric power ceased today the industry’s current level of emissions is not sustainable. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at twice the level of pre-industrial times is likely to require emissions reductions of 65-85 percent below current levels by 2100. Clearly reductions of this magnitude can be achieved only by taking action globally and across all sectors of the economy.1 But the electricity sector will undoubtedly need to assume a major share of the burden—in the United States and worldwide—given its centralized structure and contribution to overall emissions. This report explores the electric power industry’s options for reducing its GHG emissions over the next half century. Those options include new technologies that are still being developed—such as coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration—as well as strategies that rely on existing technologies at different stages of commercial and technical readiness (such as nuclear and renewable generation) lower-carbon fuels (like natural gas) and efficiency improvements (both at the point of electricity production and end use). Many of these options in addition to reducing CO2 emissions also reduce conventional air pollutants. Although a power generating plant has a lifetime of 30-50 years low-carbon technologies could claim a substantial fraction of the generation mix by mid-century—in time to help stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations within the next century or two. Some of these technologies such as coal-based integrated gasification and combined cycle (IGCC) generation still need to overcome basic cost reliability and market-acceptance hurdles. others such as carbon capture and sequestration have yet to be demonstrated on a large scale. Still others such as wind nuclear or even (given recent fuel price increases) natural gas combined cycle power are relatively well developed but face constraints in terms of siting public acceptability cost or other factors. </source> [/INST] <claim>Electricity is key to solve warming </claim> <psg>the electricity industry is one of the most important sectors generation of electricity is responsible for 38 percent of CO2 emissions This sector is the largest single source of emissions every aspect of productive activity and daily life in a modern economy depends on electricity electricity use has grown faster than GDP. The Internet and computers would not operate without electricity. Electricity a major role in delivering modern comforts commercial manufacturing and agricultural sectors The environmental importance of the electric power industry is likely to grow Electricity demand is projected to continue rising reconciling growing demand for electricity with the need for substantial reductions in GHG presents a significant challenge the industry’s current level of emissions is not sustainable. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide require emissions reductions reductions of this magnitude can be achieved only by taking action globally the electricity sector will need to assume a major share of the burden worldwide given its centralized structure and contribution to overall emissions. options for reducing its GHG emissions include new technologies low-carbon technologies could claim a substantial fraction of the generation mix technologies are well developed but face constraints in terms of siting public acceptability cost or other factors.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Nevertheless the analysis presented in this report suggests that substantial GHG reductions could be achieved by the power sector—without major impacts on the economy or on consumer lifestyles—through the gradual deployment of lower-carbon options over the next several decades. At the same time more immediate emissions reductions can be achieved through lowering demand by increasing the efficiency with which electricity is used. substituting natural gas for coal. improving efficiency at existing plants including highly efficient combined heat and power systems at suitable sites. expanding deployment of renewable generation technologies including biomass co-firing of coal plants. and through the use of carbon offsets such as forestry projects and methane capture and collection. These immediate measures can reasonably be expected to reduce electricity growth and expand low-carbon electricity production in the United States from its 28 percent share in 2003 while also reducing emissions from higher-carbon generators. While initial steps to limit electricity sector CO2 emissions will have only a modest impact on total U.S. emissions steady and deliberate efforts to promote long-term technological change in this sector eventually could produce significant climate benefits given the industry’s share of current emissions. The dollar cost of achieving GHG reductions will depend to a significant extent on which of several possible technology pathways emerge as both feasible and cost-effective in the decades ahead. Increasing the efficiency with which electricity is used is important to any energy future. In one scenario the successful commercialization of carbon capture and sequestration technology would allow for continued use of fossil fuels in combination with somewhat increased reliance on similarly priced wind resources. In another scenario a new generation of nuclear technology proves acceptable and plays an expanded role in meeting future electricity needs. Future emissions reductions might need to be achieved chiefly through increased reliance on relatively more expensive natural gas and renewable energy. Some forms of renewable energy can certainly play a role but just how large a role depends on a range of uncertain issues in terms of cost technical performance and power system architecture. A major scaleup of renewable energy would likely require a greatly enhanced transmission network and expensive energy storage technologies to compensate for the remoteness and intermittency of much of the wind and solar resource base. These issues will be resolved only through further research and expanded field experience. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables solve the power sector – key to reverse emissions </claim> <psg>substantial GHG reductions could be achieved by the power sector—without major impacts on the economy through the deployment of lower-carbon options immediate emissions reductions can be achieved through expanding deployment of renewable generation technologies These measures can reduce emissions from higher-carbon generators. steady and deliberate efforts to promote long-term technological change could produce significant climate benefits Increasing efficiency with which electricity is used is important to any energy future A major scaleup of renewable energy would require a greatly enhanced transmission network and expensive energy storage technologies These issues will be resolved only through further research and expanded field experience.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Many participants in the environmental debate state that a global climate agreement will never materialize and that we can solve global warming without such a treaty. As a result they focus on voluntary unilateral local or bottom-up solutions.6 These ideas are driven by good intentions that unfortunately do not guarantee good outcomes witness the arguments on green paradox and rebound in the previous sections. It is sometimes argued that optimism is justified because historical energy transitions occurred without any international treaty. But this forgets that we are now because of climate risks pursuing an “economically illogical” transition namely from very concentrated energy sources and carriers (notably oil and gas) to considerably less concentrated and thus less attractive forms of energy (notably wind and solar). This difference is illustrated by the indicator “energy return on energy investment” which for oil is in the range of 30 to 40 nowadays while for solar PV it is far below 10 and for many types of biofuels even below 2 (Murphy and Hall 2010). Technological progress may improve these figures but to what extent is highly uncertain. Moreover time is limited that is a rapid transition is necessary to prevent dangerous climate change. In this context we must not overlook that historical energy transitions such as from wood to coal from coal to oil and electrification lasted roughly 200 85 and 65 years respectively (Huberty and Zysman 2010). I am the last to deny that an effective climate treaty will be extremely difficult to achieve but in view of the foregoing arguments I simply see no substitute for it. Effective bottom-up solutions for global warming cannot emerge without such a treaty as a consequence of the existence of the various escape routes discussed in Table 1 (Section 2). It is not a choice between bottom-up and top-down solutions. The top-down agreement has to stimulate the bottom-up solutions. A climate treaty will equalize the costs and prices of dirty energy at an international scale and thus prevent that the competitive position of countries with a responsible safe climate policy will be harmed. Despite risks of corruption and rent-seeking some form of policy-induced carbon pricing notably if realized through taxation instead will offer a better chance to distribute both the costs of climate policy and its revenues in a maximally fair manner among all citizens of the world. This kind of policy actually will then reflect that humans should jointly share the ownership of or the responsibility for a stable and safe climate. Without a climate agreement stringent national policies are not just unlikely but if implemented will lead to carbon leakage. This denotes the problem that if climate policy is not equally strict in different countries this will affect the (relative) competitiveness of these countries which in turn will induce a relocation of “dirty industries” and a shift in “dirty trade”. As a result reduction of carbon dioxide emissions will be limited (Kuik and Gerlagh 2003). An international climate agreement or border taxes on dirty imports can support the emergence of equally strict policies in countries which would mean avoiding carbon leakage. One might say now: “Waiting for a global climate treaty may be clearly highly desirable but what is to be done then in the meantime in relation to growing emissions?” My response is that by following various other strategies than a climate agreement and associated stringent national carbon pricing such as local voluntary actions ecolabelling energy subsidies we have the feeling that we are doing already a lot. But because of the escape routes discussed here the effectiveness of these strategies is disappointing. Instead it is worthwhile to be patient and persistent and put very much effort time intelligence creativity and – not to forget – money (through advertising and lobbying) into the negotiations for a stringent climate agreement. 15 Why has success in the negotiations for a post-Kyoto climate agreement proven so difficult? Besides political interest factors7 an important reason is the widespread idea that climate policy will be extremely costly or even disastrous to our economies. However there are several reasons to believe that the costs will turn out to be moderate. For example the research costs to make solar PV technologies profitable have been estimated to be equal to 0.017 percent of the combined GDP of all OECD countries or 1 percent of the cost of the Iraq war or – if one assumes a period of 10 years to make solar PV electricity cost-effective – 4 percent of global spending on weapons research during the same period (van den Bergh 2010). It is just a matter of changing priorities. The Kyoto Protocol was quite quickly effectuated namely a decade after climate change became a subject of study and debate in the social sciences politics and society at large. One should of course not judge Kyoto too seriously in terms of its efficiency and effectiveness – it is best regarded as a litmus test for international environmental politics and as a stepping stone for something better. The time has come to use all possible leverage and creativity to accelerate the process of international climate negotiations. Without it renewable voluntary energy conservation energy subsidies and energy standards will merely be strategies to escape an effective climate policy. With the current escape strategies we are only fooling ourselves. </source> [/INST] <claim>Global climate agreements solve emissions</claim> <psg>Many state that a global climate agreement will never materialize we are now because of climate risks pursuing an “economically illogical” transition to less concentrated and thus less attractive forms of energy wind and solar a rapid transition is necessary to prevent dangerous climate change. an effective climate treaty will be difficult but I see no substitute for it. Effective solutions for global warming cannot emerge without a treaty The top-down agreement has to stimulate the bottom-up solutions. A climate treaty will equalize the costs and prices of dirty energy at an international scale and prevent that the competitive position of countries with safe climate policy will be harmed policy-induced carbon pricing offer a better chance to distribute the costs of climate policy and its revenues This kind of policy actually reflect that humans should jointly share the responsibility for a stable and safe climate. Without a climate agreement stringent national policies are not just unlikely but will lead to carbon leakage if climate policy is not equally strict in different countries this will affect the competitiveness of these countries which induce a relocation of “dirty industries” reduction of carbon dioxide emissions will be limited international climate agreement support the emergence of equally strict policies in countries which avoid carbon leakage. costs will be moderate It is just a matter of changing priorities. One should not judge Kyoto too seriously it is best regarded as a litmus test for international environmental politics and as a stepping stone for something better. The time has come to use all possible leverage and creativity to accelerate international climate negotiations</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> ¶ Life-Cycle Global Warming Emissions¶ In open-loop geothermal systems approximately 10 percent of the air emissions are carbon dioxide and a smaller amount of emissions are methane a more potent global warming gas. Estimates of global warming emissions for open-loop systems are approximately 0.1 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour. In closed-loop systems these gases are not released into the atmosphere but there are a still some emissions associated with plant construction and surrounding infrastructure.¶ ¶ Enhanced geothermal systems which require energy to drill and pump water into hot rock reservoirs have life-cycle global warming emission of approximately 0.2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour [11].¶ ¶ To put this into context estimates of life-cycle global warming emissions for natural gas generated electricity are between 0.6 and 2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour and estimates for coal-generated electricity are 1.4 and 3.6 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour [12]. </source> [/INST] <claim>Geothermal has a very minimal negative effect on global warming</claim> <psg>In open-loop geothermal systems approximately 10 percent of the air emissions are carbon dioxide and a smaller amount of emissions are methane a more potent global warming gas. global warming emissions for open-loop systems are 0.1 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour. In closed-loop systems these gases are not released into the atmosphere Enhanced geothermal systems have life-cycle global warming emission of approximately 0.2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour To put this into context natural gas generated electricity are between 0.6 and 2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour and estimates for coal-generated electricity are 1.4 and 3.6 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The U.S. economy may not be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to slow its bond purchases later this year. That's the takeaway from economists after the government cut its estimate Wednesday of growth in the January-March quarter to a 1.8 percent annual rate sharply below its previous estimate of a 2.4 percent rate. The main reason: Consumers spent less than previously thought. Most economists think growth will remain low as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to federal spending cuts and higher taxes. Growth is expected to reach an annual rate of only about 2 percent in the April-June quarter. Even if the economy improves slightly it would be hard to meet the Fed's forecast of 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent growth for 2013. Chairman Ben Bernanke rattled investors last week when he said the Fed will likely slow its bond-buying this year if the economy continues to strengthen. The bond purchases have helped keep interest rates low. Bernanke added that if the economy weakens the Fed won't hesitate to delay its pullback or even step up its bond purchases again. Jennifer Lee senior economist at BMO Capital Markets said that if the April-June quarter proves tepid the Fed will be looking at three straight quarters of subpar growth. 'The Fed won't taper (its bond purchases) under these conditions ' Lee said. 'They need convincing signs of a pickup.' Joel Naroff chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers said he suspects the Fed will wait until next year to slow its bond buying. Like most economists Naroff thinks growth will pick up in the October-December quarter and strengthen in 2014. 'If the Fed doesn't take notice of this revision to growth they would run the risk of being perceived as largely clueless about the economy ' Naroff said. Stocks surged Wednesday a sign that many investors also suspect the economy may prove too weak for the Fed to begin scaling back its stimulus later this year. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 173 points in late-afternoon trading and broader stock indexes also surged. Most of the revision to last quarter's growth was due to a decline in consumer spending to an annual rate of 2.6 percent. Though that pace is the fastest in two years it's sharply below the 3.4 percent rate previously estimated. The downgraded estimate of growth was due in large part to weaker spending on services such as travel legal services health care and utilities. Spending on long-lasting manufactured goods considered a barometer of consumers' confidence in the economy was stronger than previously estimated. Some economists said the lower estimate suggests that an increase in Social Security taxes that took effect this year might be squeezing consumers more than expected. The tax increase has reduced take-home pay for most Americans. A person earning $50 000 a year has roughly $1 000 less to spend. A high-earning couple has up to $4 500 less. 'There was still acceleration in the growth of consumer spending -- just not as much ' said Paul Edelstein director of financial services at IHS Global Insight. The government's revisions also pointed to less export growth and weaker business investment spending due mainly to less spending on buildings than previously estimated. </source> [/INST] <claim>Growth will continue to be slow – revised economic forecasts </claim> <psg>The U.S. economy may not be strong enough That's the takeaway from economists after the government cut its estimate of growth to 1.8 percent sharply below its previous estimate of 2.4 percent economists think growth will remain low as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to spending cuts and higher taxes. Growth is expected to reach an annual rate of only 2 percent Even if the economy improves slightly it would be hard to meet the Fed's forecast for 2013 the Fed will be looking at three straight quarters of subpar growth. Stocks surged a sign that investors suspect the economy may prove too weak The Dow Jones rose 173 points revision to growth was due to a decline in consumer spending it's sharply below the rate previously estimated government's revisions pointed to less export growth and weaker business investment spending</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> After leading the way out of the global recession China and other big developing economies now are growing slower a significant shift in momentum that augers weaker world growth and softer demand for U.S. exporters. The slowdown in developing economies has been building for some time but has captured greater attention recently because of China's credit crunch and the prospects of monetary policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On Tuesday the International Monetary Fund cut its U.S. and global economic forecasts for this year and next citing primarily slower growth in key developing nations as well as a deepening recession in the Eurozone. The IMF also noted that federal spending reductions in the U.S. were weighing on the recovery. The world economy will grow 3.1% this year the Washington-based IMF said down from its April projection of 3.3%. Growth also will be slower next year — 3.8% compared with an earlier 4% forecast. The IMF estimated that the U.S. economy would expand at a modest 1.7% rate this year and pick up next year to 2.7%. Both figures also are down 0.2 percentage points from the organization's projections in its April World Economic Outlook. Although part of the reason for the change in the U.S. forecast is the automatic federal spending cuts known as the sequester the U.S. economy and particularly American export manufacturers are likely to feel a pinch from slower growth in developing and emerging market economies. </source> [/INST] <claim>Slow growth is building globally </claim> <psg>China and other big developing economies are growing slower a significant shift in momentum that augers weaker world growth and softer demand for U.S. exporters. slowdown in developing economies has been building for some time the I M F cut its economic forecasts for this year and next citing slower growth in key nations as well as a deepening recession in the Eurozone federal spending reductions in the U.S. were weighing on the recovery. the U.S. economy would expand at a modest 1.7% rate this year figures are down 0.2 percentage points U.S. economy and export manufacturers are likely to feel a pinch from slower growth in developing and emerging market economies.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The U.S. economy showed fresh signs of slower growth in the second quarter with factory activity slipping in the mid-Atlantic region while groundbreaking declined at home construction sites. Other data on Thursday showed a spike in new claims for jobless benefits last week as well as soft underlying inflation that could point to weak demand in the economy. 'We are seeing a soft start for growth in the second quarter ' said Sam Bullard an economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte North Carolina. The data could raise concerns over the impact of a government austerity drive that began in January and the fallout from a recession in the euro zone. It could also increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep its money printing press running on overdrive to support the economy. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its gauge of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell to minus 5.2 in May. Negative readings in the index point to a contraction in activity. Drops in new orders and in employment weighed on the index which covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania southern New Jersey and Delaware. The report added to recent signs that weakness in manufacturing in March and April extended into May. 'We are not rebounding from the recent swoon ' said Jacob Oubina an economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. 'We are just muddling along.' U.S. economic growth picked up in the first three months of the year after a dismal fourth quarter but the April-June period is expected to show a more lackluster expansion as Washington's push to trim the budget deficit weighs on consumers and businesses. The federal government hiked taxes in January and initiated sweeping budget cuts in March. Signs of consumer weakness were evident in a report by Wal-Mart that sales fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter at its U.S. stores open at least a year. The data put downward pressure on U.S. stock prices which were little changed at midday. It also pushed down yields on U.S. government debt while the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies. </source> [/INST] <claim>Slow growth now – nothing to drive expansion </claim> <psg>The U.S. economy showed fresh signs of slower growth factory activity slipping while groundbreaking declined at construction sites. data showed a spike in claims for jobless benefits as well as inflation that point to weak demand We are seeing a soft start for growth We are not rebounding from the recent swoon We are just muddling along U.S. economic growth is expected to show lackluster expansion Signs of consumer weakness were evident data put downward pressure on U.S. stock prices It also pushed down yields on U.S. government debt while the dollar weakened</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The US economy appears to grow slower than expected in the second quarter the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. 'Recent indicators point to a sharper than expected slowdown in economic activity in the second quarter ' IMF experts said in a report issued following annual consultations with American officials. 'This reflects weakness in inventory accumulation and net exports as well as slower private consumption growth as suggested by retail sales in June.' The pullback in consumer spending poses a sharp drag on growth as it fuels about two-thirds of activity in the world's largest economy. The US government is set to release its first estimate of gross domestic growth for the second quarter on Wednesday. First-quarter GDP growth was at a tepid annual rate of 1.8 per cent as the economy still struggles to recover from the Great Recession that ended four years ago. </source> [/INST] <claim>US is growing slowly – key indicators </claim> <psg>The US economy appears to grow slower than expected the I M F said Recent indicators point to a sharper than expected slowdown in economic activity experts said This reflects weakness in inventory accumulation and exports as well as slower private consumption growth pullback in consumer spending poses a sharp drag on growth First-quarter GDP growth was at a tepid annual rate the economy still struggles to recover from the Great Recession</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> First growth continued to disappoint in major emerging market economies reflecting to varying degrees infrastructure bottlenecks and other capacity constraints slower external demand growth lower commodity prices financial stability concerns and in some cases weaker policy support. Second the recession in the euro area was deeper than expected as low demand depressed confidence and weak balance sheets interacted to exacerbate the effects on growth and the impact of tight fiscal and financial conditions. Third the U.S. economy expanded at a weaker pace as stronger fiscal contraction weighed on improving private demand. The report says the threat to the major emerging-markets nations -- Brazil Russia India and China known collectively as BRIC -- is from investors who continue to move funds from these countries to the U.S. where interest rates are rising. The rates are increasing as the Federal Reserve Bank continues to indicate it will slow or end its easy-cash policies. Last month after Fed officials outlined a plan to end its quantitative easing there was a significant outflow of cash from BRIC nations. IMF officials have publicly criticized the Fed for not being clearer about its exit plans. It wants the U.S. central bank to continue its $85 billion-a-month cash injections until at least the end of the year. The IMF cut its forecast for overall emerging-markets growth by 0.3 percentage point forecasting a rate of 5 percent this year and 5.4 percent in 2014. It said that growth rates in Brazil China and Russia were likely to see the largest declines. The global economy also faces challenges from the ongoing and expanding recession in the 17 countries that use the euro. The eurozone is now expected to contract by 0.6 percent this year compared with the 0.4 percent decline predicted in April. The IMF lowered forecasts for U.S growth as well because it expects the budget cuts caused by the sequester to last until at least 2014. It said the U.S. economy will grow 1.7 percent in 2013 down from 1.9 in April and 2.7 percent in 2014 down from 2.9 percent. The IMF's numbers are notably more pessimistic about the U.S. economy than those from the White House. Yesterday the Office of Management and Budget projected that domestic GDP will expand in 2013 at an annual rate of 2 percent. That's down from the 2.3 percent rate that the Obama administration assumed in its annual budget in April. The OMB also reduced its forecast for growth in 2014 to 3.1 percent down a tick from 3.2 percent. </source> [/INST] <claim>Worldwide growth has stalled </claim> <psg>growth continued to disappoint in major emerging market economies reflecting infrastructure bottlenecks slower external demand growth lower commodity prices financial stability concerns and weaker policy support the recession in the euro area was deeper than expected the U.S. economy expanded at a weaker pace as stronger fiscal contraction weighed on improving private demand. interest rates are rising there was significant outflow of cash from BRIC nations The IMF cut its forecast for overall growth The global economy faces challenges from the ongoing and expanding recession The IMF lowered forecasts for U.S growth because it expects the budget cuts caused by the sequester to last until 2014 IMF's numbers are notably pessimistic OMB reduced its forecast for growth</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow throughout this year according to a survey of top corporate executives despite a buoyant stock market and rising consumer confidence. Members of the Business Roundtable a lobbying group for CEOs at large U.S. companies said they expect the nation’s economy to expand 2.2% this year up slightly from the 2.1% growth they forecast previously. The latest survey conducted in May and released Wednesday found that 78% of the 141 respondents expect their sales to increase in the next six months while just 37% plan to boost their company’s capital spending and 32% expect to expand their workforces during the same period. “The survey results reflect an economy that is on a slow road to recovery ” Jim McNerney the CEO of Boeing Co. and chairman of the Business Roundtable told reporters. The nation’s top executives are seeing job growth that is “muted pretty across the board ” Mr. McNerney said though the auto manufacturing and health care industries are bright spots that are hiring more. The U.S. economy is being held back by an international environment in which the European economy remains mired in a “very negative situation” while emerging economies continue to grow at a healthy clip Mr. McNerney said. He added that the domestic economy is also suffering from legislative uncertainty as debates over immigration tax and budget overhauls drag on. Resolution for these issues could “provide a tailwind” to the economy Mr. McNerney said adding that business investment “remains constrained until we get some certainty.” </source> [/INST] <claim>On a slow road to recovery – business insiders </claim> <psg>The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow Members of the Business Roundtable said they expect the nation’s economy to expand 2.2% this year survey results reflect an economy that is on a slow road to recovery The nation’s top executives are seeing job growth that is muted across the board The U.S. economy is being held back by the European economy the economy is also suffering from legislative uncertainty</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The 195 000 new jobs reported for June was somewhat better than most economists had expected. The job gains together with upward revisions to the prior two months' data raised average growth for the last three months to 196 000. While this may lead some to be dancing in the streets those who actually care about the economy may want to hold off. First it is important to remember the size of the hole the economy is in. We are down roughly 8.5 million jobs from our trend growth path. We also need close to 100 000 jobs a month to keep pace with the underlying growth rate of the labor market. This means that even with the relatively good growth of the last few months we were only closing the gap at the rate of 96 000 a month. At this pace it will take up more than seven years to fill the jobs gap. It is easy to miss the size of the jobs gap since the current 7.6% unemployment rate doesn't seem that high. However the main reason that the unemployment rate has fallen from its peak of 10% in the fall of 2009 is that millions of people have dropped out of the labor force and stopped looking for jobs. These people are no longer counted as being unemployed. If we look at the employment to population ratio – the percentage of people who have jobs – this has risen just 0.5 percentage points from the low-point of the downturn. It is still down by more than 4.0 percentage points from its pre-recession level and by 6.0 full percentage points from the peak hit in the boom of 2000. After severe downturns in the 1970s and 1980s we had months in which the economy created over 400 000 jobs. And this was in a labor market that was more than one-third smaller. That is the sort of job growth that we should be seeing after a recession like the one we saw in 2008-2009. Unfortunately such growth is nowhere in sight. Of course the weakness of the job market is not a surprise. The economy has been growing at less than a 2% annual rate for the last three years. In this context it is surprising that we are seeing job growth of even 100 000 a month. Most analysts put the economy's trend rate of growth in the range of 2.2-2.5%. This means that the economy has to grow at this pace just to keep the unemployment rate from rising. </source> [/INST] <claim>Don’t be fooled by their upbeat statistics </claim> <psg>The 195 000 new jobs reported for June was somewhat better than economists had expected While this may lead some to be dancing in the streets those who actually care about the economy may want to hold off. it is important to remember the size of the hole the economy is in. We are down 8.5 million jobs from our trend growth path even with relatively good growth it will take more than seven years to fill the jobs gap the employment to population ratio has risen just 0.5 percentage points from the low-point of the downturn. It is still down by more than 6 percent growth is nowhere in sight the weakness of the job market is not a surprise. The economy has been growing at less than a 2% annual rate for the last three years. the economy has to grow at this pace just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Growth—even measured with such an imperfect metric as GDP—is now recognized as a critical driver of poverty reduction and improvements in social indicators. It has resulted in an 80% increase in GDP per capita in developing countries over the last twenty years despite continued increases in population. Living standards have improved for many with more than 500 million rising out of poverty and remarkable progress in literacy and education life expectancy infant child and maternal mortality and malnutrition indicators. And while much of the global poverty reduction has been driven by China other countries that experienced growth also saw rapid poverty reduction. Ghana for example grew much faster than the African average and managed to reduce its poverty rate from 51 to 30 percent between 1990 and 2005. </source> [/INST] <claim>Growth drives poverty reduction </claim> <psg>Growth is a critical driver of poverty reduction and improvements in social indicators. It has resulted in an 80% increase in GDP per capita in developing countries despite increases in population. Living standards have improved for many with progress in literacy and education life expectancy mortality and malnutrition countries that experienced growth saw rapid poverty reduction</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Counterintuitively as their power wanes empires often plunge into ill-advised military misadventures. This phenomenon is known among historians of empire as “micro-militarism” and seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories however briefly and catastrophically. These operations irrational even from an imperial point of view often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power. </source> [/INST] <claim>Hegemonic decline risks imperial lashout – net worse than their turns</claim> <psg>as their power wanes empires often plunge into military misadventures This phenomenon seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories however briefly and catastrophically These operations irrational even from an imperial point of view often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The downward spiral the United States has taken was anything but inevitable. Washington has always had a choice in how to approach grand strategy. One popular option among some libertarians is isolationism. This approach is based on the assumption that there is no region outside the Western Hemisphere that is strategically important enough to justify expending American blood and treasure. Isolationists believe that the United States is remarkably secure because it is separated from all of the world’s great powers by two giant moats—the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans— and on top of that it has had nuclear weapons—the ultimate deterrent—since 1945. But in truth there is really no chance that Washington will adopt this policy though the United States had strong isolationist tendencies until World War II. For since then an internationalist activism fostered by the likes of the Rockefeller Foundation has thoroughly delegitimized this approach. American policy makers have come to believe the country should be militarily involved on the world stage. Yet though no mainstream politician would dare advocate isolationism at this point the rationale for this grand strategy shows just how safe the United States is. This means among other things that it will always be a challenge to motivate the U.S. public to want to run the world and especially to fight wars of choice in distant places. Offshore balancing which was America’s traditional grand strategy for most of its history is but another option. Predicated on the belief that there are three regions of the world that are strategically important to the United States—Europe Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf—it sees the United States’ principle goal as making sure no country dominates any of these areas as it dominates the Western Hemisphere. This is to ensure that dangerous rivals in other regions are forced to concentrate their attention on great powers in their own backyards rather than be free to interfere in America’s. The best way to achieve that end is to rely on local powers to counter aspiring regional hegemons and otherwise keep U.S. military forces over the horizon. But if that proves impossible American troops come from offshore to help do the job and then leave once the potential hegemon is checked. Selective engagement also assumes that Europe Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf are the only areas of the world where the United States should be willing to deploy its military might. It is a more ambitious strategy than offshore balancing in that it calls for permanently stationing U.S. troops in those regions to help maintain peace. For selective engagers it is not enough just to thwart aspiring hegemons. It is also necessary to prevent war in those key regions either because upheaval will damage our economy or because we will eventually get dragged into the fight in any case. An American presence is also said to be valuable for limiting nuclear proliferation. But none of these strategies call for Washington to spread democracy around the globe—especially through war. The root cause of America’s troubles is that it adopted a flawed grand strategy after the Cold War. From the Clinton administration on the United States rejected all these other avenues instead pursuing global dominance or what might alternatively be called global hegemony which was not just doomed to fail but likely to backfire in dangerous ways if it relied too heavily on military force to achieve its ambitious agenda. Global dominance has two broad objectives: maintaining American primacy which means making sure that the United States remains the most powerful state in the international system. and spreading democracy across the globe in effect making the world over in America’s image. The underlying belief is that new liberal democracies will be peacefully inclined and pro-American so the more the better. Of course this means that Washington must care a lot about every country’s politics. With global dominance no serious attempt is made to prioritize U.S. interests because they are virtually limitless. This grand strategy is “imperial” at its core. its proponents believe that the United States has the right as well as the responsibility to interfere in the politics of other countries. One would think that such arrogance might alienate other states but most American policy makers of the early nineties and beyond were confident that would not happen instead believing that other countries—save for so-called rogue states like Iran and North Korea—would see the United States as a benign hegemon serving their own interests. </source> [/INST] <claim>US will cling to heg</claim> <psg>The downward spiral the United States has taken was anything but inevitable. Washington has always had a choice in how to approach grand strategy. One popular option among some libertarians is isolationism. there is really no chance that Washington will adopt this policy an internationalist activism fostered by the likes of the Rockefeller Foundation has thoroughly delegitimized this approach. American policy makers have come to believe the country should be militarily involved on the world stage Offshore balancing is but another option there are three regions of the world that are strategically important to the United States it sees the United States’ principle goal as making sure no country dominates any of these areas as it dominates the Western Hemisphere Selective engagement also assumes that Europe Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf are the only areas of the world where the United States should be willing to deploy its military might. It is a more ambitious strategy than offshore balancing in that it calls for permanently stationing U.S. troops in those regions to help maintain peace none of these strategies call for Washington to spread democracy around the globe—especially through war. The root cause of America’s troubles is that it adopted a flawed grand strategy the United States rejected all these other avenues instead pursuing global dominance or what might alternatively be called global hegemony which was not just doomed to fail but likely to backfire in dangerous ways if it relied too heavily on military force Global dominance has two broad objectives: maintaining American primacy and spreading democracy across the globe this means that Washington must care a lot about every country’s politics. With global dominance no serious attempt is made to prioritize U.S. interests because they are virtually limitless. This grand strategy is “imperial” at its core</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announces $884 000 in grants available for the US-Mexico border region in Texas and New Mexico. The funds will be awarded under the Border 2020 U.S.-Mexico Environmental Program in coordination with the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC). All proposals must be submitted by August 29 2013. EPA will award grants to projects that reflect the goals of the Border 2020 program especially those supporting work in the Texas/New Mexico border region. Project types include improving air quality monitoring networks. developing applications for reusing water. developing bilingual outreach campaigns to stop illegal dumping. updating sister city-plans. improving understanding of each country’s compliance and enforcement roles. and other projects that help fulfill the goals and objectives of Border 2020. Greater consideration will be given to proposals that leverage other resources and demonstrate measurable results. </source> [/INST] <claim>More funding was just allocated to the BECC </claim> <psg>The E P A announces $884 000 in grants for the US-Mexico border region funds will be awarded in coordination with the BECC EPA will award grants to projects improving air quality monitoring developing applications for reusing water. developing bilingual outreach campaigns to stop illegal dumping. updating sister city-plans. improving understanding of each country’s compliance and enforcement roles. and other projects</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is pleased to announce $1 Million in Border Environmental funding for the California/Baja California and Arizona/Sonora regions. The funds will be awarded under the Border 2020: U.S.-Mexico Environmental Program in coordination with the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC). Selected awards will average $50 000 each. All proposals must be submitted by July 31 2013. EPA will award grants to projects that reflect the strategic goals of the Border 2020 program including those that: reduce the disposal of trash and phosphates in the New River. develop educational projects on zero waste and sustainable materials management. assess the state of border environmental health. assess vehicle emissions at the international ports of entry expand the use of decentralized wastewater systems in rural areas. Greater consideration will be given to proposals that leverage other resources and that demonstrate measurable results. Grant proposal workshops are being offered in California/Baja California and Arizona/Sonora regions and will be announced on the EPA and BECC websites in the next few weeks. Successful applicants will be notified on August 30 2013. The Border 2020 Program is a bi-national collaborative effort whose mission is to protect human health and the environment in the U.S.-Mexico border region. BECC is an international organization established for the purpose of preserving protecting and enhancing the environment in the U.S. – Mexico border region. EPA through the Border 2020 Program has supported environmental projects along the U.S.-Mexico border since 2005. Since then over $6 million have been awarded to over 100 grantees in the California/Baja California Arizona/Sonora Region with an additional $2.5 million leveraged by border partners. </source> [/INST] <claim>Grants to the BECC now</claim> <psg>The E P A announce $1 Million in Border Environmental funding funds will be awarded in coordination with the BECC EPA will award grants to projects that reduce the disposal of trash and phosphates develop educational projects on zero waste assess the state of border environmental health assess vehicle emissions expand decentralized wastewater systems since 2005 over $6 million have been awarded to over 100 grantees with an additional $2.5 million leveraged by border partners</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> While renewable energy investment globally fell by 11 percent in 2012 renewable energy financing increased by 127 percent in Latin American countries excluding Brazil. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance this included gains of 595 percent in Mexico 313 percent in Chile 285 percent in Uruguay and 176 percent in Peru. In total renewable energy investments in Latin America reached $9.7 billion in 2012. When adding the important renewable energy portfolio of Brazil ($5.2 billion in 2012) the renewable energy sector in Latin America is growing and will continue to attract significant capital in the coming years. A combination of favorable government policies receptiveness to foreign investment and attractive regulatory regimes has drawn investors to renewable energy projects in the region. These issues were debated in Washington on July 30 during a roundtable discussion on financing renewable energy in Latin America at the Council of the Americas held under the auspices of the Council’s Energy Action Group. The conditions for renewable energy in Latin America are favorable. From the photovoltaic potential of the Atacama Desert in Chile to the many rivers that feed into hydroelectric dams in Brazil to the fields of African palm oil in Colombia developers have been drawn to the region due to a unique geography that offers great potential for renewable feedstocks. Countries are also beginning to adopt renewable energy standards. Chile is leading the way with its 20/20 renewable plan—20 percent of the country’s electrical grid powered by renewable energy by 2020. While the target may be a long shot the initiative demonstrates that countries in the region are serious about developing their renewable energy potential. A solid investment climate usually contains a strong regulatory mechanism. For investments to prosper regulatory regimes must honor rule of law and contract enforcement. Fortunately issues regarding regulations are often declared in the original contract which states that regulations will not be reactive. However financial crises can often deter a regulatory regime and lead to uncertainty. Stable contract and regulatory systems exist in countries where renewable energy development is surging such as Chile Mexico and Peru. Nevertheless there are roadblocks for renewable energy development. In Brazil and other countries strict local content rules are stifling the investment climate for foreign investors. For example in Brazil’s wind industry to be eligible for Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) financing the projects must have a 60 percent local content requirement. Because of price differentials this strict requirement can dissuade foreign developers from investing in the country. While local content rules can drive away financing projects in some cases such as Uruguay the local content rules tend to be in line with what would normally be acquired locally. </source> [/INST] <claim>Perception links are non-unique </claim> <psg>While renewable energy investment globally fell by 11 percent renewable energy financing increased by 127 percent in Latin American countries this included gains of 595 percent in Mexico 313 percent in Chile 285 percent in Uruguay and 176 percent in Peru renewable energy investments in Latin America reached $9.7 billion in 2012. he renewable energy sector in Latin America will continue to attract capital favorable government policies receptiveness to foreign investment and attractive regulatory regimes has drawn investors to renewable energy projects in the region. conditions for renewable energy in Latin America are favorable. Countries are also beginning to adopt renewable energy standards. Chile is leading the way with its 20/20 renewable plan countries in the region are serious about developing renewable energy Nevertheless there are roadblocks for renewable energy development</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> In short the continuities between early twentieth-century biopolitical discourse and the practices of the welfare state in our own time are unmistakable. Both are instances of the “disciplinary society” and of biopolitical regulatory social-engineering modernity and they share that genealogy with more authoritarian states including the National Socialist state but also fascist Italy for example. And it is certainly fruitful to view them from this very broad perspective. But that analysis can easily become superficial and misleading because it obfuscates the profoundly different strategic and local dynamics of power in the two kinds of regimes. Clearly the democratic welfare state is not only formally but also substantively quite different from totalitarianism. Above all again it has nowhere developed the fateful radicalizing dynamic that characterized National Socialism (or for that matter Stalinism) the psychotic logic that leads from economistic population management to mass murder. Again there is always the potential for such a discursive regime to generate coercive policies. In those cases in which the regime of rights does not successfully produce “health ” such a system can —and historically does— create compulsory programs to enforce it. But again there are political and policy potentials and constraints in such a structuring of biopolitics that are very different from those of National Socialist Germany. Democratic biopolitical regimes require enable and incite a degree of self-direction and participation that is functionally incompatible with authoritarian or totalitarian structures. And this pursuit of biopolitical ends through a regime of democratic citizenship does appear historically to have imposed increasingly narrow limits on coercive policies and to have generated a “logic” or imperative of increasing liberalization. Despite limitations imposed by political context and the slow pace of discursive change I think this is the unmistakable message of the really very impressive waves of legislative and welfare reforms in the 1920s or the 1970s in Germany.90 Of course it is not yet clear whether this is an irreversible dynamic of such systems. Nevertheless such regimes are characterized by sufficient degrees of autonomy (and of the potential for its expansion) for sufficient numbers of people that I think it becomes useful to conceive of them as productive of a strategic configuration of power relations that might fruitfully be analyzed as a condition of “liberty ” just as much as they are productive of constraint oppression or manipulation. At the very least totalitarianism cannot be the sole orientation point for our understanding of biopolitics the only end point of the logic of social engineering. </source> [/INST] <claim>Even if they are right that our policy is biopolitical the fact that it is carried out by a democratic state makes it profoundly different. </claim> <psg>In short the continuities between early twentieth-century biopolitical discourse and the practices of the welfare state in our own time are unmistakable But that analysis can easily become superficial and misleading because it obfuscates the profoundly different strategic and local dynamics of power in the two kinds of regimes. Clearly the democratic welfare state is not only formally but also substantively quite different from totalitarianism. it has nowhere developed the fateful radicalizing dynamic the psychotic logic that leads from economistic population management to mass murder. there are political and policy potentials and constraints in such a structuring of biopolitics that are very different from those of National Socialist Germany. Democratic biopolitical regimes require enable and incite a degree of self-direction and participation that is functionally incompatible with authoritarian or totalitarian structures. And this pursuit of biopolitical ends through a regime of democratic citizenship does appear historically to have imposed increasingly narrow limits on coercive policies and to have generated a “logic” or imperative of increasing liberalization. such regimes are characterized by sufficient degrees of autonomy for sufficient numbers of people that I think it becomes useful to conceive of them as productive of a strategic configuration of power relations that might fruitfully be analyzed as a condition of “liberty ” totalitarianism cannot be the sole orientation point for our understanding of biopolitics the only end point of the logic of social engineering.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> This notion is not at all at odds with the core of Foucauldian (and Peukertian) theory. Democratic welfare states are regimes of power/knowledge no less than early twentieth-century totalitarian states. these systems are not “opposites ” in the sense that they are two alternative ways of organizing the same thing. But they are two very different ways of organizing it. The concept “power” should not be read as a universal stifling night of oppression manipulation and entrapment in which all political and social orders are grey are essentially or effectively “the same.” Power is a set of social relations in which individuals and groups have varying degrees of autonomy and effective subjectivity. And discourse is as Foucault argued “tactically polyvalent.” Discursive elements (like the various elements of biopolitics) can be combined in different ways to form parts of quite different strategies (like totalitarianism or the democratic welfare state). they cannot be assigned to one place in a structure but rather circulate. The varying possible constellations of power in modern societies create “multiple modernities ” modern societies with quite radically differing potentials.91 </source> [/INST] <claim>Biopower is a description of our era—it is neither inherently good nor bad. Our specific context is more important than their sweeping generalization. </claim> <psg>The concept “power” should not be read as a universal stifling night of oppression manipulation and entrapment in which all political and social orders are grey are essentially or effectively “the same.” Power is a set of social relations in which individuals and groups have varying degrees of autonomy and effective subjectivity. Discursive elements (like the various elements of biopolitics) can be combined in different ways to form parts of quite different strategies (like totalitarianism or the democratic welfare state). they cannot be assigned to one place in a structure but rather circulate. The varying possible constellations of power in modern societies create “multiple modernities ” modern societies with quite radically differing potentials.91</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> At its simplest this view of the politics of expertise and professionalization is certainly plausible. Historically speaking however the further conjecture that this “micropolitical” dynamic creates authoritarian totalitarian or homicidal potentials at the level of the state does not seem very tenable. Historically it appears that the greatest advocates of political democracy —in Germany left liberals and Social Democrats —have been also the greatest advocates of every kind of biopolitical social engineering from public health and welfare programs through social insurance to city planning and yes even eugenics.102 The state they built has intervened in social relations to an (until recently) ever-growing degree. professionalization has run ever more rampant in Western societies. the production of scientistic and technocratic expert knowledge has proceeded at an ever more frenetic pace. And yet from the perspective of the first years of the millennium the second half of the twentieth century appears to be the great age of democracy in precisely those societies where these processes have been most in evidence. What is more the interventionist state has steadily expanded both the rights and the resources of virtually every citizen — including those who were stigmatized and persecuted as biologically defective under National Socialism. Perhaps these processes have created an ever more restrictive “iron cage” of rationality in European societies. But if so it seems clear that there is no necessary correlation between rationalization and authoritarian politics. the opposite seems in fact to be at least equally true. </source> [/INST] <claim>Biopower is not genocidal when it is deployed by a government which also respects rights. </claim> <psg>the further conjecture that this “micropolitical” dynamic creates authoritarian totalitarian or homicidal potentials at the level of the state does not seem very tenable. Historically it appears that the greatest advocates of political democracy have been also the greatest advocates of every kind of biopolitical social engineering from public health and welfare programs through social insurance to city planning and yes even eugenics. The state they built has intervened in social relations the second half of the twentieth century appears to be the great age of democracy in precisely those societies where these processes have been most in evidence. What is more the interventionist state has steadily expanded both the rights and the resources of virtually every citizen it seems clear that there is no necessary correlation between rationalization and authoritarian politics. the opposite seems in fact to be at least equally true.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> A report published by Citibank a major international bank has found that the future of shale gas in Europe is shrouded in uncertainties and the energy technology may not be as viable as had been previously claimed. The same report found that renewables will cost the same as conventional fuels (including gas) in many parts of the world in the very near term. “The cost of renewables is falling fast ” it said. The Citibank report first published in September 2012 says that in Europe shale is likely to be particularly challenging to extract leading to a higher than predicted level of uncertainty surrounding the industry’s future. “Even if shale gas resources are as large as initially reported it is unknown to what extent shale gas will be recoverable in practice ” it said. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables will price out shale</claim> <psg>the future of shale gas is shrouded in uncertainties and the energy may not be as viable as previously claimed. renewables will cost the same as conventional fuels including gas in many parts of the world in the very near term. The cost of renewables is falling fast it is unknown to what extent shale gas will be recoverable in practice</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The emergence of the shale gas boom in the United States and the discovery of significant reserves in Australia and elsewhere has prompted many people in the energy industry to proclaim a “golden age” of gas one that will cause the premature demise of renewable energy sources even before they have a chance of creating an energy revolution of their own. The claims have of course been heavily promoted by the gas industry itself as well as from institutions such as the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration who have both suggested the boom in shale gas will defer investment away from wind and solar. But in a recent report the energy analysts at international investment bank Citigroup question these assumptions which are based on the idea that gas and renewables will compete with each other. “We suggest the opposite is true ” Citi writes. Rather than replacing renewables the Citi analysts suggest that the shale gas industry will actually be dependent on the broader deployment of wind and solar for its future. That’s because gas will be priced out of the conventional market in the short term but will then be required to fill in the gaps as wind and solar are deployed more widely and coal generation is shut down. Far from competing with each other Citi suggests renewables and shale gas will be co-dependent as the world’s energy systems are weaned away from the baseload model that has dominated the industry for the last century. That is until forms of dispatchable renewable energy such as solar thermal with storage and technologies such as smart grids push gas out of the market. The key to Citi’s prediction is the conclusion that the cost of exploiting shale gas is highly uncertain as are its long-term environmental credentials. Shale gas is likely to be considerably more expensive than it has been in the US and by the time it is exploited it will be unable to compete with the cost of renewables in most markets. “The perception of renewables as an expensive source of electricity is largely obsolete given the huge cost reductions achieved in recent years ” the Citi analysts write. The report notes residential solar PV has already reached ‘grid parity’ in many countries with much of the world set to follow by 2020. It also says that utility-scale renewables will also be competitive with gas-fired power in the “short to medium” term. This has already occurred with wind energy in many countries. The exact ‘crossover’ points for utility-scale solar will vary from country to country but in many regions the Citi analysts say that big solar will be competitive by 2020. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables can price shale out of the market – cost competitive </claim> <psg>The emergence of the shale gas boom in the U S prompted many to proclaim a “golden age” of gas that will cause the premature demise of renewable energy sources even before they have a chance of creating an energy revolution claims have been heavily promoted by the gas industry itself energy analysts question these assumptions which are based on the idea that gas and renewables will compete the opposite is true Rather than replacing renewables the shale gas industry will be dependent on the broader deployment of wind and solar That’s because gas will be priced out of the market in the short term but will then be required to fill in the gaps as wind and solar are deployed more widely renewables and shale gas will be co-dependent until renewable energy push gas out of the market. that the cost of exploiting shale gas is highly uncertain Shale is likely to be considerably more expensive than it has been in the US by the time it is exploited it will be unable to compete with the cost of renewables in most markets. perception of renewables as an expensive source of electricity is obsolete renewables will be competitive with gas in the “short term</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The United States continues to slumber while a catastrophe lies in wait. Increasing numbers of analysts and policymakers are warning of another super price spike for oil and the likelihood of 'peak oil' more generally. Peak oil is the point at which global oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. The speed of the decline is a key unknown and if it is relatively fast the results could be truly dire for economies around the world. We saw prices as high as $147 a barrel in mid-2008 (the dominant factor for gasoline prices well over $4 a gallon) which played a strong role perhaps the dominant role in the global Great Recession -- as high oil prices have in most recessions over the last fifty years. Once the recession hit oil demand dropped and prices plummeted as low as $33 a barrel. Prices steadily recovered since their low in early 2009 and are back to dangerous levels in early 2011 (about $90 a barrel). We can expect far higher prices as the global recovery continues. An increasing number of analysts are projecting prices as high or higher than the 2008 peak in the next couple of years. More importantly global net exports of oil continue to drop as major oil exporters increase their own consumption at the same time as their production is stagnant or falling. As a major oil-importing nation (about 2/3 of our oil is imported by far the largest import dependency in the world) net oil exports are far more important to the U.S. than total oil production. Even if global oil production increases in the coming years if there is less available for oil-thirsty nations like ours the situation will be far worse than total oil production figures would otherwise suggest. More on this below. It is time for public discussion of this issue to reach the same prominence as climate change. Indeed many solutions to these “twin crises” are the same because reducing petroleum dependence will ameliorate peak oil and climate change. This article is an update on the peak oil situation at the beginning of 2011 and a follow-up to my many previous pieces on peak oil (one with Nobel Prize winner Walter Kohn). First some facts. Global oil production has plateaued since 2004 despite the fact that oil prices have risen dramatically. Figure 1 shows this history demonstrating that oil production has not been very response to market forces suggesting strongly that we are at a global peak. Bloomberg reported a summary of oil price forecasts for 2011 selecting for their summary those forecasters who have the most accurate track records. The dominant view was that average oil prices will rise almost as high in 2011 as seen in 2008 – to $87 a barrel for the year as a whole (the average price for 2008 was $99). It’s likely however that the actual average 2011 price will be significantly higher because we are already over this price at about $90 a barrel in early January and the large majority of economic forecasts project a robust global recovery this year with attendant increases in oil demand. More anecdotally but with perhaps more impact because of its source Shell’s recent ex-president John Hofmeister predicts $5 gas by 2012 due to the global economic recovery and very tight supply. A number of comprehensive reviews of the global oil supply situation have appeared in the last year. Lloyds and Chatham House: “We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike.” “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013… given recent price experience a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible.” The U.S. Department of Defense issued a stark warning in its 2010 Joint Operating Environment (JOE) report including discussion of “peak oil”: 'By 2012 surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear and as early as 2015 the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.” Similarly the German military is taking peak oil very seriously made clear by a report leaked to Der Spiegel in 2010: “[The report] warns of shifts in the global balance of power of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations of the ‘total collapse of the markets’ and of serious political and economic crises.” The same article reports on secret British government planning for peak oil: “The leak has parallels with recent reports from the UK. Only last week the Guardian newspaper reported that the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is keeping documents secret which show the UK government is far more concerned about an impending supply crisis than it cares to admit. According to the Guardian the DECC the Bank of England and the British Ministry of Defence are working alongside industry representatives to develop a crisis plan to deal with possible shortfalls in energy supply.” The UK’s Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (a non-governmental group) issued its second major report on peak oil in late 2010 concluding: “[W]e face a situation during the [next few years] where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK’s energy security will be significantly compromised. This has the potential to hit UK business and commerce as well as the most disadvantaged in society with yet another crisis.” In August of 2009 the International Energy Agency (IEA) the official energy watchdog for the western world was even more strident in its warnings. The UK’s Independent newspaper reported: The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production a leading energy economist has warned. Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation or even decline in supply could blow any recovery off course said Dr Fatih Birol the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries. Later in 2009 two IEA whistleblowers went public and claimed that the situation was even worse than the IEA was stating publicly. The UK’s Guardian newspaper reported in November of 2009: “A … senior IEA source who has now left but was … unwilling to give his name said a key rule at the organization was that it was ‘imperative not to anger the Americans’ but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as has been admitted. ‘We have (already) entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad ’ he added.” </source> [/INST] <claim>Peak oil has been reached – spikes make their impacts inevitable</claim> <psg>The U S continues to slumber while a catastrophe lies in wait. Increasing numbers of analysts and policymakers are warning of another super price spike for oil and peak oil Peak oil is the point at which global oil production reaches a maximum and declines. The speed of the decline is a key unknown climate change solutions are the same because reducing petroleum dependence will ameliorate peak oil and climate change. Global oil production has plateaued since 2004 despite the fact that prices have risen dramatically oil production has not been response to market forces suggesting strongly that we are at a global peak. A number of comprehensive reviews of the global oil supply situation have appeared We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple global economic recovery Higher oil prices could blow any recovery off course We have entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. the situation is really bad</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> It is time to get very serious about managing a reduction in petroleum demand in the U.S. and around the world. I write “managing” because it is my view that this reduction in demand will happen whether we want it to or not due to declining oil supplies. The question then is how we best manage this decline. A high quality analysis of the possible scenarios for an oil-constrained world by Oxford University professor Jörg Friedrichs appeared in 2010. Friedrichs examines three possible trajectories: “Predatory militarism ” “totalitarian retrenchment ” and “socioeconomic adaptation.” At least two rigorous policy solutions have been offered in recent years. The Rocky Mountain Institute completed Winning the Oil Endgame in 2007 suggesting a suite of policy and technology solutions that can get the U.S. off oil “led by business for profit.” Richard Heinberg offered his own book-length solution The Oil Depletion Protocol in 2008 suggesting how the U.S. and other nations could manage declining oil supplies by achieving a three percent per year reduction in demand through various policies. As we continue a global economic recovery in 2011 higher oil prices are inevitable super price spikes are a strong possibility and even shortages are not out of the question. We must ask ourselves: should we manage the decline in a way that avoids economic catastrophe or do we continue our generally laissez faire attitude toward this major problem? </source> [/INST] <claim>Plan key to reduce oil dependence – averts the impacts of inevitable price spikes </claim> <psg>It is time to get very serious about a reduction in petroleum demand in the U.S. and around the world The question is how we best manage this decline analysis of the possible scenarios examines three possible trajectories Predatory militarism totalitarian retrenchment and socioeconomic adaptation technology solutions can get the U.S. off oil higher oil prices are inevitable super price spikes are a strong possibility and shortages are not out of the question should we manage the decline in a way that avoids economic catastrophe or continue our laissez faire attitude</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The idea of 'peak oil' — that global production will reach a peak and then decline — has been around for decades with academics arguing about whether this peak has already passed or is yet to come. The typical industry response is to point to increasing assessments of global reserves — the amount known to be in the ground that can be produced commercially. But this is misleading. The true volume of proven global reserves is clouded by secrecy. forecasts by state oil companies are not audited and seem to be exaggerated3. More importantly reserves often take 6–10 years to drill and develop before they become part of supply by which time older fields have become depleted. It is far more sensible to look instead at actual production records which are less encouraging. Even while reserves are apparently increasing the percentage available for production is going down. In the United States for example production as a percentage of reserves has steadily decreased from 9% in 1980 to 6% today2. Production at existing oil fields around the world is declining at rates of about 4.5% (ref. 4) to 6.7% per year5. Only by adding in production from new wells is overall global production holding steady. In 2005 global production of regular crude oil reached about 72 million barrels per day. From then on production capacity seems to have hit a ceiling at 75 million barrels per day. A plot of prices against production from 1998 to today2 shows this dramatic transition from a time when supply could respond elastically to rising prices caused by increased demand to when it could not (see 'Phase shift'). As a result prices swing wildly in response to small changes in demand. Other people have remarked on this step change in the economics of oil around the year 2005 but the point needs to be lodged more firmly in the minds of policy-makers. </source> [/INST] <claim>Peak oil theory is proven true – triggers frequent spikes </claim> <psg>The idea of 'peak oil' has been around for decades The true volume of proven global reserves is clouded by secrecy forecasts by state oil companies are not audited and seem to be exaggerated reserves take 10 years to drill and develop by which time older fields have become depleted. It is far more sensible to look at actual production records which are less encouraging. the percentage available for production is going down production as a percentage of reserves has steadily decreased As a result prices swing wildly in response to small changes in demand</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The world currently produces around 91 million barrels a day (mb/d) of ‘oil’ in the International Energy Agency’s definition which is for all liquids. For the past two years actual crude oil production (which includes lease condensate in the EIA’s definition) has been hovering around 75 mb/d on an annual basis just slightly over the 74 mb/d plateau established in 2005. The moment of truth for peak oil will be when the decline of mature fields finally overwhelms new production additions and global supply begins to turn south. (A vogue alternative is that we’ll reach “peak demand” first where oil is replaced by other fuels and demand falls due to greater efficiency but as yet I find the proof that this has happened or will happen unconvincing.) That moment of truth isn’t quite here yet. Fracking along with all the other methods the world is employing to squeeze a bit more oil out of the earth has barely budged global oil production. Here is the chart: What do you see there? An ignominious end to an unimaginative story perpetrated by self-interested mavericks looking to raise their profiles and sell some books or a plateau of production that just barely broke higher in the past two years after an absolutely heroic effort that required hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and a quadrupling of oil prices? Now let’s look at non-OPEC production without U.S. production: See how production has been falling off in recent years? That’s happening because the aggregate decline rate of all fields is around 5 percent per year. In other words the world loses around 3.0 to 3.8 mb/d of production each year (depending on whose numbers you use). Most of the 2 mb/d “tidal wave of oil” from U.S. fracking was absorbed by the decline in the rest of non-OPEC as we can see from the aggregate non-OPEC production in this chart: The question isn’t “Can fracking save the world from peak oil?” but “How long can America make up for declines in the rest of the world?” The answer is probably not much longer. The growth rate of tight oil production has cooled considerably over the past year and per-well production is falling. </source> [/INST] <claim>Peak oil is here – production is cooling fast </claim> <psg>The world currently produces 91 million barrels a day The moment of truth for peak oil will be when the decline of mature fields finally overwhelms new production additions Fracking along with all the other methods the world is employing has barely budged global oil production production has been falling off in recent years because the aggregate decline rate of all fields is around 5 percent per year. The question is How long can America make up for declines in the rest of the world?” The answer is not much longer. The growth rate of oil production has cooled considerably and per-well production is falling.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Now let’s talk about price. Since 2003 who forecast the global repricing of oil best the peakists who expected prices to spike into record territory or the Cornucopians who consistently predicted that oil prices would return to historical levels? The answer is indisputable: the peakists. For the past decade the Cornucopians have told us that a new abundance was coming from deepwater oil tar sands enhanced oil recovery biofuels and other unconventional sources. Global oil production would rise to 120 million barrels per day and prices would fall back to $20 or $30 per barrel. Those stories were all completely wrong. The peakists called it. Here’s what happened: Oil repriced in response to scarcity. Triple-digit prices were responsible for the new flush of unconventional production. That production including fracking for tight oil in the United States raises prices it doesn’t lower them. We’ve hit and fallen back from the consumer’s price tolerance repeatedly for the past six years. For a last bit of data look at this forecast from the final post that petroleum engineer Jean Lahèrrere did for The Oil Drum: Laherrère concludes: “With the poor data available today it seems that world oil (all liquids) production will peak before 2020 Non-OPEC quite soon and OPEC around 2020. OPEC will cease to export crude oil before 2050.” Looking closely at Laherrère’s data it seems essentially in line with my view that in another 18 months or so we’re going to get the signal that oil needs to reprice higher still to maintain production. That will be very difficult for U.S. and European consumers to stomach. Whether that repricing will bring more oil to market or simply kill demand remains to be seen. </source> [/INST] <claim>Peak oil is proven </claim> <psg>who forecast the global repricing of oil best the peakists who expected prices to spike into record territory or the Cornucopians who consistently predicted that oil prices would return to historical levels? The answer is indisputable: the peakists. Cornucopians told us that a new abundance was coming from deepwater oil tar sands enhanced oil recovery biofuels and other unconventional sources. Those stories were all completely wrong. The peakists called it. Oil repriced in response to scarcity. Triple-digit prices were responsible for the new flush of unconventional production. That production raises prices it doesn’t lower them. world oil production will peak OPEC will cease to export crude oil we’re going to get the signal that oil needs to reprice higher still to maintain production</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> There are a number of physical depletion mechanisms that affect oil production (Satter et al. 2008). Depletion-driven decline occurs during the primary recovery phase when decreasing reservoir pressure leads to reduced flow rates. Investment in water injection the secondary recovery phase can maintain or increase pressure but eventually increasingly more water and less oil is recovered over time (i.e. increasing water cut). Additional equipment and technology can be used to enhance oil recovery in the tertiary recovery phase but it comes at a higher price in terms of both invested capital and energy to maintain production. The situation is similar to squeezing water out of a soaked sponge. It is easy at first but increasingly more effort is required for diminishing returns. At some point it is no longer worth squeezing either the sponge or the oil basin and the production is abandoned. Another way to explain peaking oil production is in the terms of predator–prey behavior as Bardi and Lavacchi (2009) have done. Their idea is that initially the extraction of ‘‘easy oil’’ leads to increasing profit and investments in further extraction capacity. Gradually the easiest (and typically the largest) resources are depleted. Extraction costs in both energy and monetary terms rise as production moves to lower quality deposits. Eventually investments cannot keep pace with these rising costs declining production from mature fields cannot be overcome and total production begins to fall. An additional factor plays an important role. In both the models regardless of the abundance of capital or high prices at some point an oil well is unable to deliver net energy. Hubbert (1982) wrote: ‘‘There is a different and more fundamental cost that is independent of the monetary price. That is the energy cost of exploration and production. So long as oil is used as a source of energy when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil production will cease no matter what the monetary price may be.’’ </source> [/INST] <claim>Peak oil theory is true</claim> <psg>a number of physical depletion mechanisms affect oil production Depletion-driven decline occurs when decreasing reservoir pressure leads to reduced flow rates eventually more water and less oil is recovered equipment and technology can be used but it comes at a higher price in terms of invested capital and energy The situation is similar to squeezing water out of a soaked sponge. increasingly more effort is required for diminishing returns. At some point it is no longer worth squeezing the oil basin and production is abandoned. investments cannot keep pace with rising costs declining production from mature fields cannot be overcome and total production begins to fall. at some point an oil well is unable to deliver net energy. So long as oil is used when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil production will cease</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Production peaks occur for many energy sources ranging from firewood and whales to fossil fuels (Hook et al. 2010). Currently around 60 countries have passed ‘‘peak oil’’ (Sorrell et al. 2009)—their point of maximum production. In most cases this is due to the physical depletion of the available resources (e.g. USA the UK Norway etc.) while in a few cases socioeconomic factors limit the production (e.g. Iraq). Attempts to disprove peak oil that focus solely on the amount of oil available in all its forms demonstrate a fundamental and unfortunately common confusion between how much oil remains versus how quickly it can be produced. Although until recently oil appears to be more economically available than ever before (Watkins 2006) others have shown this to be an artifact of statistical reporting (Bentley etal. 2007). Further it is far less important how much oil is left if demand is for instance 90Mb/d but only80Mb/d can be produced. Still the most realistic reserve estimates indicate a near-term resource-limited production peak (Meng andBentley 2008. Owen etal. 2010). Total oil production is comprised of conventional oil which is liquid crude that is easy and relatively cheap to pump and unconventional oil which is expensive and often difficult to produce. It is vital to understand that new oil is increasingly coming from unconventional sources like polar deep water and tar sands. Almost all the oil left to us is in politically dangerous or remote regions is trapped in challenging geology or is not even in the liquid form. Today over 60% of the world production originates from a few hundred giant fields. The number of giant oil field discoveries peaked in the early 60s and has been dwindling since then (Hook et al. 2009). This is similar to picking strawberries in a field. We picked the biggest and the best strawberries first (they are easier to find just like big oil fields) and left the small ones for later. Only 25 fields account for one quarter of global production and 100 fields account for half of production. Just 500 fields account for two-thirds of all the production (Sorrell etal. 2009a). As the International Energy Agency (2008) points out it is far from certain that the oil industry will be able to muster the capital to tap enough of the remaining low-return fields fast enough to make up for the decline in production from the current fields. All oil sources are not equally easy to exploit. It takes far less energy to pump oil from a reservoir still under natural pressure than to recover the bitumen from tar sands and convert it to synthetic crude. The energy obtained from an extraction process divided by the energy expended during the process is the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). It is a return on investment calculation applied to a physical process. As Hubbert noted regardless of the price the market is willing to pay for oil just as we would not spend a dollar to receive only a dollar in return when we expend as much oil as we get back from a particular oil deposit production will stop. The EROEI of US domestic oil production (chiefly originating from giant oil fields) has declined from 100:1 in 1930 to less than 20:1 for developments in the 2000s (e.g. Gulf of Mexico) (Gately 2007. Hall et al. 2008. Murphy and Hall 2010). Since giant and Super giant oil fields dominate current production they are good indicators for the point of peak production (Robelius 2007. H¨o¨ok et al. 2009). There is now broad agreement among analysts that the decline in the existing production is between 4–8% annually (H¨o¨ok et al. 2009). In terms of capacity this means that roughly a new North Sea (5 Mb/d) has to come onstream every year just to keep the present output constant. In 2010 the International Energy Agency (2010) abruptly announced that the peak of conventional oil production was reached in 2006. The IEA also again lowered their estimate of total world oil production to less than 100 Mb/dby 2035. However it has been shown that the IEA oil production model is flawed. To reach the production level in their model they assume oil field depletion rates that are so high that they have never been seen in any oil region before (Aleklettetal. 2010). The remaining oil simply cannot be produced as quickly as would be required to push the production peak as far into the future as they project thus the peak must occur sooner than the IEA asserts. Miller (2011) found that the IEA had not addressed any of the recent critique and concluded that the IEA outlooks likely remain too optimistic. </source> [/INST] <claim>Prefer the data behind peak oil theory</claim> <psg>around 60 countries have passed ‘‘peak oil’’ this is due to the physical depletion of the available resources Attempts to disprove peak oil that focus solely on the amount of oil available demonstrate a fundamental confusion between how much oil remains versus how quickly it can be produced. Although oil appears to be more economically available others have shown this to be an artifact of statistical reporting the most realistic estimates indicate a near-term peak new oil is increasingly coming from unconventional sources Almost all the oil left to us is in politically dangerous or remote regions is trapped in challenging geology or is not even in the liquid form. The number of giant oil field discoveries peaked in the early 60s and has been dwindling since then This is similar to picking strawberries in a field. We picked the biggest and the best strawberries first and left the small ones for later. it is far from certain that the oil industry will be able to muster the capital to tap enough of the remaining low-return fields fast enough to make up for the decline in production All oil sources are not equally easy to exploit regardless of the price the market is willing to pay for oil when we expend as much oil as we get back from a particular oil deposit production will stop. There is broad agreement among analysts that the decline in production is between 4–8% the IEA oil production model is flawed they assume oil field depletion rates that are so high that they have never been seen in any oil region before the IEA outlooks remain too optimistic.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> However oil production recently became less responsive to the traditional economic stimuli. The first decade of this century witnessed a dramatic increase in oil exploration and production when the price of oil increased (Sorrell et al. 2009 2009a). Unfortunately as noted already total world oil production seems to have reached a plateau nonetheless. To a large degree this is because the oil that remains tends to be unconventional oil which is expensive and takes more time to bring into the market. Some consequences of having extracted much of the easy oil are the following: a) Once a field is discovered it takes significantly more time to start production. Maugeri (2010) estimates that it now takes between 8 and 12 years for new projects to produce the first oil. Difficult development conditions can delay the start of production considerably. In the case of Kashagan the world’s largest oil discovery in 30 years production has been delayed by almost 10 years due to the difficult environmental conditions. b) In mature regions an increased drilling effort usually results in little increase in oil production because the largest fields were found and produced first (H¨o¨ok and Aleklett 2008. H¨o¨ok et al. 2009). c) Because the cost of extracting the remaining oil is much higher than the easy-to-extract OPEC or other conventional oil if the market price remains lower than the marginal cost for long enough producers will cut production to avoid financial losses. See Fig. 3. d) Uncertainty about the future economic growth heightens concerns for executing these riskier projects. This delays or often cancels the projects. e) Most remaining oil reserves are in the hands of governments. They tend to under-invest compared to private companies (Deutsche Bank 2009). </source> [/INST] <claim>Substantial barriers to increased oil production </claim> <psg>oil production became less responsive to traditional economic stimuli total world oil production seems to have reached a plateau this is because the oil that remains tends to be unconventional which is expensive and takes more time to bring into the market. consequences of having extracted easy oil are the following Once a field is discovered it takes significantly more time to start production it now takes between 8 and 12 years Difficult development conditions delay production considerably. increased drilling effort results in little increase in oil production Because the cost of extracting the remaining oil is much higher the market price remains lower than the marginal cost producers cut production Uncertainty about future economic growth heightens concerns for executing riskier projects governments under-invest compared to private companies</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Because oil is a global commodity our increased production won't have much impact on global prices. At the same time the global nature of oil means that we are inextricably tied to and ultimately dependent on other countries many of them very unstable. In 2011 Libya's internal civil war halted production of light sweet crude driving U.S. gas prices up 33 cents per gallon in two weeks—even though in that same year the Bakken Shale was producing nearly half a million barrels per day. Our oil markets are also subject to weather events: In 2005 Hurricane Katrina disrupted U.S. supply and caused the first gas station lines since the 1970s. These events are only increasing as our planet warms. So the real answer on geopolitics as my former Center for American Progress colleague Brian Katulis and I wrote back in 2011 is that really the only smart play for the U.S. is to actually reduce our oil use (and exposure to oil price volatility) while making the technology investments we need to transition to a 21st-century low-carbon energy economy. Saudi Arabia already gets this and is massively investing in solar panels to decrease its own economic dependence on oil. They want to increase renewable energy production by 54 gigawatts by 2032 making them one of the largest clean-energy generators in the world. If we don't want to be dependent on the Saudis for our wind and solar technology as well as for oil we better get cracking. </source> [/INST] <claim>Warming makes oil shocks inevitable – renewables are key and don’t trigger Saudi retaliation </claim> <psg>oil is a global commodity our increased production won't have much impact on global prices. the global nature of oil means we are inextricably tied to other countries In 2011 Libya's internal civil war halted production of light sweet crude driving gas prices up 33 cents per gallon in two weeks oil markets are subject to weather events Hurricane Katrina disrupted U.S. supply These events are only increasing as our planet warms. really the only smart play for the U.S. is to actually reduce our oil use while making the technology investments we need to transition to a low-carbon energy economy. Saudi Arabia gets this and is massively investing in solar panels They want to increase renewable energy production we better get cracking</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> There is less fossil-fuel production available to us than many people believe. From 2005 onwards conventional crude-oil production has not risen to match increasing demand. We argue that the oil market has tipped into a new state similar to a phase transition in physics: production is now 'inelastic' unable to respond to rising demand and this is leading to wild price swings. Other fossil-fuel resources don't seem capable of making up the difference. Production at oil fields globally including at the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield California is declining at about 4–6% a year. Such major spikes in fuel price can cause economic crises and contributed to the one the world is recovering from now. The future economy is unlikely to be able to bear what oil prices have in store. Only by moving away from fossil fuels can we both ensure a more robust economic outlook and address the challenges of climate change. This will be a decades-long transformation1 that needs to start immediately. </source> [/INST] <claim>Peak oil is already here – only a renewable transition solves price spikes and economic collapse </claim> <psg>There is less fossil-fuel production available than many people believe. From 2005 onwards oil production has not risen to match demand the oil market has tipped production is now 'inelastic' unable to respond to rising demand this is leading to wild price swings. Production at oil fields globally is declining major spikes in fuel price cause economic crises The future economy is unlikely to be able to bear what oil prices have in store. Only by moving away from fossil fuels can we ensure a more robust economic outlook and address climate change. This needs to start immediately</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> This analysis shows possible medium-term economic effects of a significant drop in world oil production over the next decade. Assuming that global demand for oil and petroleum products remains increasing the price of oil will increase sharply due to the price inelastic nature of the oil market in the short to medium run. Large fluctuations in the oil price occur for only small changes in supply and demand. This is also supported by findings in the literature and shows that strong price fluctuations as experienced in the past years are easily possible. The oil shortage firstly and strongly affects the transport sector but then has indirect impacts on all other sectors through global supply chains. The medium run reactions to the oil shortage and corresponding substantial increase in the oil price of the global energy system and the individual sectors are energy saving and substitution lowering global energy demand. The global macroeconomic effects of an increase of the oil price as high as modelled here are comparable to the effects of the financial and economic crises of 2008/2009. Country specific effects are very different as the oil exporting countries gain importance in the global economy while the influence of the strong oil-importing economies of today decreases. Comparing scenarios “Peak Oil” and “Peak Oil Eff/RE” shows that global climate mitigation actions can well reduce the negative economic impacts of oil supply shortages and associated with strong increases in the oil price. The reasons for the oil shortage which in this paper is assumed to be peak oil could as well be political disruptions military conflicts or terror attacks in the oil producing countries. For the analysis of the macroeconomic effects though the actual source of the oil shortage and corresponding oil price increase does not matter. This analysis shows that not only the reduction in emissions but also fossil fuel shortage especially oil shortage and energy security are good reasons for global climate action programmes regarding increase in energy efficiency and further development of renewable energy sources. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables key to solve inevitable shortages </claim> <psg>Assuming that global demand for oil remains the price of oil will increase sharply in the short run. Large fluctuations in the oil price occur for small changes in supply and demand. strong price fluctuations are easily possible. The oil shortage has indirect impacts on all sectors global macroeconomic effects are comparable to the economic crises of 2008 global climate mitigation actions well reduce the negative economic impacts of oil supply shortages oil shortage and energy security are good reasons for global climate action regarding increase in energy efficiency and development of renewable energy</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Climate change and changes in fossil-fuel production are generally seen as separate phenomena. But they are closely linked. The risk of fossil-fuel supply limitation should be included when considering the uncertainties of future climate change. The approaches needed for tackling the economic impacts of resource scarcity and climate change are the same: moving away from a dependence on fossil-fuel energy sources. Whereas the implications of climate change have driven only slow policy responses economic consequences tend to drive shorter-term action. We know from the historical record that when there are oil-price spikes the economy begins to respond within a year. Governments that fail to plan for the decline in fossil-fuel production will be faced with potentially major blows to their economies even before rising sea levels flood their coasts or crops begin to fail catastrophically. The solutions are not secret or mysterious. Globally we get 55 × 1018 joules of useful energy from 475 × 1018 joules of primary energy from fossil fuels biomass and nuclear power plants. The difference is due to energy losses and inefficiencies in the conversion and transmission processes. By increasing the efficiency we could get the same useful energy by burning less fuel. We need to specify conservation goals for improving the efficiency of use of fossil-fuel energy. These include taxing oil to keep prices high and to encourage a reduction in energy use. encouraging nuclear energy. questioning if and how economic growth can continue without an increase in fossil fuels. lowering speed limits on roads and encouraging public transport. or redirecting tax credits towards renewable-energy development. The transformation will take decades so we must begin as soon as possible. Emphasizing the short-term economic imperative from oil prices must be enough to push governments into action now. </source> [/INST] <claim>The plan is key to solve inevitable high prices </claim> <psg>Climate change and changes in fossil-fuel production are closely linked. The risk of fossil-fuel supply limitation should be included when considering future climate change approaches needed for tackling source scarcity and climate change are the same: moving away from a dependence on fossil-fuel energy sources. Governments that fail to plan for the decline in fossil-fuel production will be faced with major blows to their economies even before rising sea levels flood their coasts or crops begin to fail catastrophically. The solutions are not secret We need to specify goals These include renewable-energy development</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> How does oil demand respond in recessions? Oil demand may be considered a coincident indicator for economic activity. Oil demand tends to peak at the peak of the economic cycle and trough at the bottom of the recession. In a severe recession we might expect US demand to drop 7 percent from peak to trough. US demand has fallen 8.1 percent from its December 2007 peak to March 2009 and is currently running about 19 mbpd. Based on previous recessions one might conclude that US declines had just about run their course. </source> [/INST] <claim>Economic decline collapses demand – turns the DA</claim> <psg>How does oil demand respond in recessions? Oil demand may be a coincident indicator for economic activity. Oil demand peak at the peak of the economic cycle and trough at the bottom of the recession. In a severe recession we expect US demand to drop from peak to trough. US demand has fallen 8.1 percent from its December 2007 peak to March 2009</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> This paper examines the impact of oil price changes on global economic growth. Unlike some recent studies this paper finds that oil price rises have had significant negative impacts on world economic growth. A time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in real oil price by 10 dollars is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.4 and 1% in the following year. As oil prices approach historical highs the global economy may be vulnerable to another oil price shock. </source> [/INST] <claim>High prices collapse the global economy</claim> <psg>oil price rises have had significant negative impacts on world economic growth series analysis of data from 1971 to 2010 finds an increase in oil price is associated with a reduction of world economic growth As oil prices approach historical highs the global economy may be vulnerable to another oil price shock.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> This paper examines the impact of oil price changes on global economic growth. Unlike some of the recent studies this paper finds that oil price rises have had significant negative impact on world economic growth rates. A time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in real oil price by one dollar is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.04 and 0.1% in the following year. Therefore an increase in real oil price by 10 dollars would be associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.4 and 1% in the following year. For a global economy that in average grows at about 3.5% a year a reduction of this size is very significant. Moreover the regressions seem to have suggested that the impact of oil price on economic growth may have increased over the last one or two decades. This is in contradiction with the widely held belief that the global economy has become less vulnerable to oil price shocks. These findings suggest that if the world oil production does peak and start to decline in the near future it may impose a serious and possibly an insurmountable speed limit on the pace of global economic expansion. </source> [/INST] <claim>High prices trigger economic decline – vulnerability rising now </claim> <psg>oil price rises have had significant negative impact on world economic growth rates. time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in oil price is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate an increase in oil price by 10 dollars would be associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by 1% For a global economy that grows at about 3.5% a year a reduction of this size is very significant. regressions suggested that the impact of oil price on economic growth increased over the last decades. This is in contradiction with the widely held belief that the global economy has become less vulnerable to oil price shocks. if the world oil production does peak it may impose a serious and insurmountable speed limit on the pace of global economic expansion.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The rising price of oil is the single most serious threat to the global economic recovery the U.S. economy and President Obama's reelection prospects. Right now we are beginning to move into a pretty broad-based recovery. Manufacturing is rising for the first time in 25 years. Technology firms are doing very well. Retail is picking up. The green shoots of the housing recovery are emerging and that's very important because housing has led almost every recovery since World War II. . But all the while that you have this economic good news you are beginning to see oil prices rise quite substantially. They're up about 15 percent over the last few months. And that could put a damper on all this good news. Why is the price of oil rising? It's happening for one reason principally and that is geopolitical risk. There are fears of a war with Iran and fears that crippling sanctions on Iran would cut down Iranian oil exports almost entirely. If you look at demand for oil it's just not that strong. Much of the world is in slower economic times than before. In January 2007 oil was $50 a barrel. It's now $110 a barrel. This doesn't make any economic sense unless you factor in geopolitical risk. So for oil prices to decline there must be some resolution to the tensions with Iran. But there is a broader problem which is that there just isn't that much oil on the market and demand is going to begin to rise again as many countries come out of their recessions and into recoveries. There isn't that much of what's called 'spare capacity' - the ability to increase production quickly. The only ones who have it are Saudi Arabia and they are operating at their limits in some ways. So there are economic fundamentals that explain why oil prices are high - but not why they are so high. The reason they are so high is really Iran Iran and Iran. </source> [/INST] <claim>Iran is an alt cause – no Saudi spare production – and high prices collapse the global economy </claim> <psg>The rising price of oil is the single most serious threat to global economic recovery we are beginning to move into broad-based recovery But all the while that you have economic good news you are beginning to see oil prices rise substantially that put a damper on all this good news. Why is the price of oil rising? geopolitical risk demand for oil it's just not that strong for oil prices to decline there must be resolution to the tensions with Iran. there is a broader problem there isn't that much oil on the market and demand is going to rise again as many countries come out of their recessions There isn't 'spare capacity' Saudi Arabia are operating at their limits economic fundamentals explain why oil prices are high The reason they are so high is Iran Iran and Iran.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> What does this mean for the global economy which is so closely tied to physical resources? Of the 11 recessions in the United States since the Second World War 10 including the most recent were preceded by a spike in oil prices13. It seems clear that it wasn't just the 'credit crunch' that triggered the 2008 recession but the rarely-talked-about 'oil-price crunch' as well. High energy prices erode family budgets and act as a head wind against economic recovery. The United States and Europe each spends $1 billion per day on oil imports. The average price of petrol in the United States increased from 75 cents per litre in 2010 to 95 cents per litre in 2011. Because the United States consumes about 1.4 billion litres per day the nation spent about $280 million a day more on petrol in 2011 leaving less for discretionary items. “The price of oil is likely to have been a large contributor to the euro crisis in southern Europe.” Another powerful example of the effect of increasing oil prices can be seen in Italy. In 1999 when Italy adopted the euro the country's annual trade surplus was $22 billion. Since then Italy's trade balance has altered dramatically and the country now has a deficit of $36 billion. Although this shift has many causes including the rise of imports from China the increase in oil price was the most important. Despite a decrease in imports of 388 000 barrels per day compared with 1999 Italy now spends about $55 billion a year on imported oil up from $12 billion in 1999. That difference is close to the current annual trade deficit. The price of oil is likely to have been a large contributor to the euro crisis in southern Europe where countries are completely dependent on foreign oil. The International Energy Agency has made it very clear that the global economy is at risk when oil prices are greater than $100 per barrel — as they have been in recent years and will surely continue to be given the inelastic response of global production. Historically there has been a tight link between oil production and global economic growth. If oil production can't grow the implication is that the economy can't grow either. This is such a frightening prospect that many have simply avoided considering it. The International Monetary Fund for example still projects economic growth of 4% of gross domestic product for the next five years: near the top of the historical range since 1980. Yet to achieve that will require either a heroic increase in oil production of 3% per year increased efficiency of oil use more energy-efficient growth or rapid substitution of other fuel sources. Economists and politicians continually debate policies that will lead to a return to economic growth. But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem they haven't identified the necessary solution: weaning society off fossil fuel. </source> [/INST] <claim>High prices empirically collapse the economy – only reducing dependence solves </claim> <psg>What does this mean for the global economy Of the 11 recessions in the U S since the Second World War 10 were preceded by a spike in oil prices High energy prices erode family budgets and act as a head wind against economic recovery. The price of oil is a large contributor to the euro crisis the global economy is at risk when oil prices are greater than $100 per barrel as they have been in recent years and will surely continue to be there has been a tight link between oil production and global economic growth. If oil production can't grow the economy can't grow either. Economists and politicians debate policies that will lead to economic growth. But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem they haven't identified the necessary solution: weaning society off fossil fuel.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Why are high oil prices a problem? 1. It is not just oil prices that rise. The cost of food rises as well partly because oil is used in many ways in growing and transporting food and partly because of the competition from biofuels for land sending land prices up. The cost of shipping goods of all types rises since oil is used in nearly all methods of transports. The cost of materials that are made from oil such as asphalt and chemical products also rises. If the cost of oil rises it tends to raise the cost of other fossil fuels. The cost of natural gas extraction tends to rises since oil is used in natural gas drilling and in transporting water for fracking. Because of an over-supply of natural gas in the US its sales price is temporarily less than the cost of production. This is not a sustainable situation. Higher oil costs also tend to raise the cost of transporting coal to the destination where it is used. Figure 2 shows total energy costs as a percentage of two different bases: GDP and Wages.1 These costs are still near their high point in 2008 relative to these bases. Because oil is the largest source of energy and the highest priced it represents the majority of energy costs. GDP is the usual base of comparison but I have chosen to show a comparison to wages as well. I do this because even if an increase in costs takes place in the government or business sector of the economy most of the higher costs will eventually have to be paid for by individuals through higher taxes or higher prices on goods or services. 2. High oil prices don’t go away except in recession. We extracted the easiest (and cheapest) to extract oil first. Even oil company executives say “The easy oil is gone.” The oil that is available now tends to be expensive to extract because it is deep under the sea or near the North Pole or needs to be “fracked ” or is thick like paste and needs to be melted. We haven’t discovered cheaper substitutes either even though we have been looking for years. In fact there is good reason to believe that the cost of oil extraction will continue to rise faster than the rate of inflation because we are hitting a situation of “diminishing returns”. There is evidence that world oil production costs are increasing at about 9% per year (7% after backing about the effect of inflation). Oil prices paid by consumers will need to keep pace if we expect increased extraction to take place. There is even evidence that sweet sports are extracted first in Bakken tight oil causing the cost of this extraction to rise as well. 3. Salaries don’t increase to offset rising oil prices. Most of us know from personal experience that salaries don’t rise with rising oil prices. In fact as oil prices have risen since 2000 wage growth has increasingly lagged GDP growth. Figure 3 shows the ratio of wages (using the same definition as in Figure 2) to GDP. If salaries don’t rise and prices of many types of goods and services do something has to “give”. This disparity seems to be the reason for the continuing economic discomfort experienced in the past several years. For many consumers the only solution is a long-term cut back in discretionary spending. 4. Spikes in oil prices tend to be associated with recessions. Economist James Hamilton has shown that 10 out of the last 11 US recessions were associated with oil price spikes. When oil prices rise consumers tend to cut back on discretionary spending so as to have enough money for basics such as food and gasoline for commuting. These cut-backs in spending lead to lay-offs in discretionary sectors of the economy such as vacation travel and visits to restaurants. The lay-offs in these sectors lead to more cutbacks in spending and to more debt defaults. 5. High oil prices don’t “recycle” well through the economy. Theoretically high oil prices might lead to more employment in the oil sector and more purchases by these employees. In practice this provides only a very partial offset to higher price. The oil sector is not a big employer although with rising oil extraction costs and more US drilling it is getting to be a larger employer. Oil importing countries find that much of their expenditures must go abroad. Even if these expenditures are recycled back as more US debt this is not the same as more US salaries. Also the United States government is reaching debt limits. Even within oil exporting countries high oil prices don’t necessarily recycle to other citizens well. A recent study shows that 2011 food price spikes helped trigger the Arab Spring. Since higher food prices are closely related to higher oil prices (and occurred at the same time) this is an example of poor recycling. As populations rise the need to keep big populations properly fed and otherwise cared for gets to be more of an issue. Countries with high populations relative to exports such as Iran Nigeria Russia Sudan and Venezuela would seem to have the most difficulty in providing needed goods to citizens. 6. Housing prices are adversely affected by high oil prices. If a person is required to pay more for oil food and delivered goods of all sorts less will be left over for discretionary spending. Buying a new home is one such type of discretionary expenditure. US housing prices started to drop in mid 2006 according to data of the S&P Case Shiller home price index. This timing fits in well with when oil prices began to rise based on Figure 1. 7. Business profitability is adversely affected by high oil prices. Some businesses in discretionary sectors may close their doors completely. Others may lay off workers to get supply and demand back into balance. 8. The impact of high oil prices doesn’t “go away”. Citizens’ discretionary income is permanently lower. Businesses that close when oil prices rise generally don’t re-open. In some cases businesses that close may be replaced by companies in China or India with lower operating costs. These lower operating costs indirectly reflect the fact that the companies use less oil and the fact that their workers can be paid less because the workers use less oil. This is a part of the reason why US employment levels remain low and why we don’t see a big bounce-back in growth after the Great Recession. Figure 4 below shows the big shifts in oil consumption that have taken place. A major part of the “fix” for high oil prices that does takes place is provided by the government. This takes the place in the form of unemployment benefits stimulus programs and artificially low interest rates. Efficiency changes may provide some mitigation as older less fuel-efficient cars are replaced with more fuel-efficient cars. Of course if the more fuel-efficient cars are more expensive part of the savings to consumers will be lost because of higher monthly payments for the replacement vehicles. 9. Government finances are especially affected by high oil prices. With higher unemployment rates governments are faced with paying more unemployment benefits and making more stimulus payments. If there have been many debt defaults (because of more unemployment or because of falling home prices) the government may also need to bail out banks. At the same time taxes collected from citizens are lower because of lower employment. A major reason (but not the only reason) for today’s debt problems of the governments of large oil importers such as US Japan and much of Europe is high oil prices. Governments are also affected by the high cost of replacing infrastructure that was built when oil prices were much lower. For example the cost of replacing asphalt roads is much higher. So is the cost of replacing bridges and buried underground pipelines. The only way these costs can be reduced is by doing less–going back to gravel roads for example. </source> [/INST] <claim>High oil prices crush the global economy</claim> <psg>Why are high oil prices a problem? It is not just oil prices that rise. The cost of food rises as well because oil is used in growing and transporting food The cost of shipping goods rises The cost of materials that are made from oil also rises If the cost of oil rises it raise the cost of other fossil fuels. The cost of natural gas extraction rises This is not sustainable High oil prices don’t go away except in recession. easy oil is gone The oil that is available now is deep under the sea or near the North Pole or needs to be “fracked ” or is thick like paste and needs to be melted. the cost of oil extraction will rise faster than the rate of inflation because we are hitting a situation of “diminishing returns” world oil production costs are increasing at 9% Oil prices paid by consumers will need to keep pace Salaries don’t increase to offset rising oil prices. as oil prices have risen wage growth has increasingly lagged GDP growth If salaries don’t rise and prices do something has to “give”. This disparity the reason for continuing economic discomfort For consumers the only solution is a long-term cut back in discretionary spending. Spikes in oil prices associated with recessions. 10 out of the last 11 US recessions were associated with oil price spikes. cut-backs in spending lead to lay-offs in discretionary sectors of the economy lay-offs lead to more cutbacks in spending and more debt defaults. High oil prices don’t “recycle” through the economy. The oil sector is not a big employer Oil importing countries find much of their expenditures must go abroad. Even if these expenditures are recycled back as debt this is not the same as more US salaries. Even within oil exporting countries high oil prices don’t recycle to other citizens food price spikes trigger the Arab Spring. Since higher food prices are closely related to higher oil prices this is an example of poor recycling Countries with high populations relative to exports have the most difficulty in providing needed goods to citizens. Housing prices are adversely affected by high oil prices. If a person is required to pay more for oil food and delivered goods of all sorts less will be left over for discretionary spending. Buying a new home is one such type of expenditure Business profitability is adversely affected by high oil prices businesses may close their doors completely. Others may lay off workers to get supply and demand back into balance. The impact of high oil prices doesn’t “go away”. Citizens’ discretionary income is permanently lower. Businesses don’t re-open some businesses that close may be replaced in China or India with lower operating costs. These lower costs reflect the fact that the companies use less oil and their workers can be paid less This is a reason why US employment levels remain low Government finances are especially affected by high oil prices governments are faced with more unemployment benefits and making more stimulus payments. the government may also need to bail out banks taxes are lower because of lower employment. A major reason for today’s debt problems of large oil importers is high oil prices Governments are affected by the high cost of replacing infrastructure that was built when oil prices were lower</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> 10. Higher oil prices reflect a need to focus a disproportionate share of investment and resource use inside the oil sector. This makes it increasingly difficult maintain growth within the oil sector and acts to reduce growth rates outside the oil sector. There is a close tie between energy consumption and economic activity because nearly all economic activity requires the use of some type of energy besides human labor. Oil is the single largest source of energy and the most expensive. When we look at GDP growth for the world it is closely aligned with growth in oil consumption and growth in energy consumption in general. In fact changes in oil and energy growth seem to precede GDP growth as might be expected if oil and energy use are a cause of world economic growth. The current situation of needing increasing amounts of resources to extract oil is sometimes referred to one of declining Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). Multiple problems are associated with declining EROEI when cost levels are already high: (a) It becomes increasingly difficult to keep scaling up oil industry investment because of limits on debt availability when heavy investment is made up front and returns are many years away. As an example Petrobas in Brazil is running into this limit. Some US oil and gas producers are reaching debt limits as well. (b) Greater use of oil within the industry leaves less for other sectors of the economy. Oil production has not been rising very quickly in recent years (Figure 6 below) so even a small increase by the industry can reduce net availability of oil to society. Some of this additional oil use is difficult to avoid. For example if oil is located in a remote area employees frequently need to live at great distance from the site and commute using oil-based means of transport. (c) Declining EROEI puts pressure on other limited resources as well. For example there can be water limits when fracking is used leading to conflicts with other use such as agricultural use of water. Pollution can become an increasingly large problem as well. (d) High oil investment cost can be expected to slow down new investment and keep oil supply from rising as fast world demand rises. To the extent that oil is necessary for economic growth this slowdown will tend to constrain growth in other economic sectors. </source> [/INST] <claim>Oil returns will decline inevitably – hurts global economies</claim> <psg>Higher oil prices reflect a need to focus a disproportionate share of investment and resource use inside the oil sector. This makes it increasingly difficult maintain growth within the oil sector and reduce growth rates outside the oil sector. GDP growth for the world is closely aligned with growth in oil consumption changes in oil and energy growth precede GDP growth The current situation of needing increasing amounts of resources to extract oil is one of declining Energy Return on Energy Invested Multiple problems are associated with declining EROEI It becomes increasingly difficult to keep scaling up oil industry investment because of limits on debt availability Greater use of oil within the industry leaves less for other sectors of the economy Declining EROEI puts pressure on other limited resources as well. there can be water limits when fracking is used Pollution can become an increasingly large problem High oil investment cost can slow new investment and keep oil supply from rising as fast world demand rises. this slowdown will constrain growth in other sectors</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The glass-half-empty way of interpreting this data is that China is showing early signs of stagflation most commonly associated with the 1970s after the oil price shock in the West. Here China’s growing dependence on oil is worth highlighting as its consumers face steep price hikes. As the second-largest consumer of oil after the U.S. the mainland Chinese economy is increasingly exposed to higher crude prices. China is also steadily increasing the amount of oil it imports which reached 5.57 million barrels a day in March up 8.7% from a year earlier Last month China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) instigated its second fuel-price hike in less than five weeks raising gasoline and diesel prices by 600 yuan ($95) per ton. This led to gasoline and diesel at the retail level increasing by between 6.5% to 7%. Read report on Chinese fuel-price increase. The price of gasoline has now reached 8 yuan a liter or over $4.80 a gallon while in southern Guangdong province it was reported prices had even reached the 9-yuan-a-liter mark. Next to the U.S. average of around $3.94 a gallon this looks pricy especially when you consider Chinese mainlanders have seen the price of gas at the pump double since 2005 from 4 yuan a liter. This is likely to come as a shock to the new generation of mainland Chinese motorists who last year surpassed 100 million and according to some forecasts will reach 200 million by 2020. Anecdotally it is already possible to notice the higher prices when catching a taxi over the border from Hong Kong. Fares are considerably higher than even a few years ago and taxi drivers are less willing to bargain. As well as pinching motorists higher fuel prices also feed through to wider inflation. As petroleum-based fertilizers are used in agriculture and gasoline is needed to transport goods these higher prices will have a knock-on effect. This is one reason it is argued China is facing structurally higher inflation. What is uncertain is how much these higher prices impact growth where for example some business find they are no longer economical and cease or when individuals might make fewer trips. While various grain producers fishery forestry urban and rural public-transportation services receive fuel subsidies from the government the rest will simply have to swallow the price increase. As the government sets fuel prices in China it risks a fuel-price backlash. One complaint is that the concentration of large state-owned monopolies is responsible for exacerbating price increases. On the face of it with gasoline prices a quarter higher in China than in the U.S. motorists have reason to gripe. </source> [/INST] <claim>High prices collapse the Chinese economy </claim> <psg>China is showing signs of stagflation most commonly associated with oil price shock China’s growing dependence on oil is worth highlighting the Chinese economy is increasingly exposed to higher crude prices. China is increasing the amount of oil it imports The price of gasoline has now reached over $4.80 a gallon this looks pricy especially when you consider Chinese mainlanders have seen the price of gas at the pump double it is already possible to notice the higher prices higher fuel prices feed through to wider inflation higher prices will have a knock-on effect. This is one reason China is facing structurally higher inflation. business find they are no longer economical and cease producers will have to swallow the price increase. the government risks a fuel-price backlash</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> I believe I am not the first one to the effect of high oil prices on the economy and I will most certainly not be the last one. Oil has been up of late due to all these uncertainties around North Africa and the Middle East where oil is produced. The following chart makes it quite clear about the danger of having oil prices rising too much too quickly. It will likely derail the already uncertain economic recovery. Back in 2008 when oil prices were rising to a record a lot of explanations have been tossed around including speculators (which Paul Krugman did not agree) emerging market’s growth in demand which certainly included China: The most important factor is the shift in favour of the developing economies. America has responded to high prices in familiar fashion: UBS forecasts that demand will drop by 1.1% this year and will be no higher in 2009 than it was in 2004. But demand from China and other emerging markets is more than offsetting this shortfall. – The Economist 15 May 2008 China’s growing thirst for oil is often put forward as one of the main factors behind today’s higher oil prices. Demand for diesel there for example rose by over 9% in the year to April. – The Economist 29 May 2008 For whatever reason it was oil prices reached its all-time peak on July 2008 and on the same month the China official PMI dropped below 50 indicating a contraction of manufacturing. In fact long before the oil reached its peak manufacturing has been slowing down. The point I circled in the above chart was April 2008 when the PMI peaked and oil prices continued to rise until July. Are we in a similar situation now? Maybe. First of all PMI has been slowing but prices have been rising and the PMI may continue to weaken. In fact the HSBC/Markit flash China PMI for February (an advanced estimate) suggested a continued slowdown. Second oil prices are now surging just like 2008 (although for different reasons). Third the Chinese government is now keen to fight inflation and it was just the same back in 2008. Should inflation persist we should expect more tightening which will definitely be a brake to the economy. </source> [/INST] <claim>Rising prices cause rampant Chinese inflation </claim> <psg>Oil has been up of late the danger of having oil prices rising too much too quickly will derail the already uncertain economic recovery. America has responded to high prices But demand from China is more than offsetting this shortfall China’s growing thirst for oil is one of the main factors behind today’s higher oil prices. Demand for diesel rose by over 9% oil prices reached all-time peak the China official PMI dropped below 50 manufacturing has been slowing PMI has been slowing but prices have been rising and the PMI may continue to weaken. the advanced estimate suggested a continued slowdown. oil prices are now surging Should inflation persist we should expect more tightening which will definitely be a brake to the economy.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Rising oil prices could deal another blow to Asia's economies already grappling with a slowing Chinese economy weak export growth and an outflow of foreign funds amid expectations for an unwinding of U.S. monetary stimulus. 'The problem is for emerging markets which will be hit by high oil prices ' Mark Matthews head of research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer told CNBC. 'They are already going through a hard time right now with the rising [government bond] yields in the U.S. so it [the high oil price] would be another pressure point for emerging markets ' he added. Emerging markets which include Asian countries such as India and Indonesia have seen heavy outflows of foreign cash in recent weeks amid fears that the Federal Reserve could start to take back some its monetary stimulus this year. U.S. crude oil prices pushed decisively above the $100-a-barrel mark this week on concerns that political unrest in Egypt could disrupt the supply of oil from the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices trading at $105.47 late on Thursday meanwhile have risen almost 3 percent in the past week alone. Asia is heavily dependent on oil and the latest data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that seven of the 15 countries it lists as the world's top net oil importers are from the region. They include China Japan India and South Korea. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects China to replace the U.S. as the world's top oil importer by 2014. 'A serious spike in oil prices does have negative implications for Asian economies that depend on oil imports and in particular I am thinking about Japan and South Korea ' said David Mann the head of regional research for Asia at Standard Chartered Bank. Economists said that while they were not looking at a significant spike in oil prices at this stage the move in oil prices was worth keeping an eye on. 'Trade balances in Asia tend to swing with oil prices and most countries in the region are in surplus at the moment ' said Tim Condon head of research for Asia at ING Financial Markets. 'Obviously we will all watch oil if it continues to head higher but that is the key – whether it heads higher.' Analysts added that a sustained rise would feed through to higher inflation across Asia and exacerbate current account deficits in countries such as India and Indonesia. India's current account deficit narrowed to $18.1 billion in the first three months of the year compared with $32.6 billion in the final quarter of 2012 but some analysts say that the narrowing could be short-lived especially with the rupee weak. 'India is one that could be impacted. It stands out because it has already seen a widening out of its current account deficit and that was in the absence of a spike in oil ' said Mann at Standard Chartered. </source> [/INST] <claim>High prices kill the Indian economy </claim> <psg>Rising oil prices could deal another blow to Asia's economies already grappling with a slowing Chinese economy weak export growth and an outflow of foreign funds emerging markets will be hit by high oil prices They are already going through a hard time right now so the high oil price would be another pressure point for emerging markets India have seen heavy outflows of foreign cash crude oil prices have risen Asia is heavily dependent on the latest data available show that seven of the 15 world's top net oil importers are from the region. A spike in oil prices have negative implications for Asian economies that depend on oil imports Economists said the move in oil prices was worth keeping an eye on. Trade balances in Asia swing with oil prices and most countries in the region are in surplus at the moment a sustained rise would feed through to higher inflation across Asia and exacerbate current account deficits in India India's current account deficit narrowed but analysts say the narrowing could be short-lived especially with the rupee weak. India stands out because it has already seen a widening out of its current account deficit and that was in the absence of a spike in oil</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The steep depreciation in rupee in the past couple of months is worsening the problem of high crude oil prices for the Indian economy. Although the global oil prices have somewhat eased recently the cost to India has been going up. At a time when India is battling several woes such as high inflation rising deficits and slowing growth a combination of weak rupee and high crude prices could further complicate matters. After reaching a peak in April 2011 the global crude oil prices have eased subsequently. Accordingly the average price for India's crude oil basket at $106.9 in September and October was 4% below the average in the April-August 2011 period. However in rupee terms India's net import cost in the past couple of months at almost Rs 5 200 per barrel turned out to be nearly 4% higher than the preceding four months. It is not that the current global oil prices are at their historic peak or the rupee is at its historic low. Brent oil prices touched $143 in July 2008 while the rupee-dollar exchange rate had touched 52 in March 2009. FY09 witnessed India's fuel under-recovery zoom above Rs 1 00 000 crore. The government then could afford to plug the hole with a huge heap of oil bonds. Things are different this time as both the perils weak rupee and high oil prices have come back to haunt the economy and the government lacks the firepower it had three years ago. It is already seen falling behind its revenue targets and overshooting expenditure targets and hence looking at a wider fiscal deficit. India imports around 80% of the crude oil it needs. Although the country is a net exporter of finished petroleum products the domestic consumption has been growing at a high pace. Since FY07 India's consumption grew at a cumulative average growth rate of 4.1% to 142 million tonne in FY11 and is expected to grow 4.6% in FY12 to 148.3 million tonne according to the petroleum ministry. This is more than twice the global growth in oil demand during this period. Rising global prices apart from growing domestic consumption have also created a huge fiscal burden on India as the costs are not fully passed on. </source> [/INST] <claim>High oil prices crush India’s economy</claim> <psg>The steep depreciation in rupee is worsening the problem of high oil prices for the Indian economy. the cost to India has been going up India is battling high inflation rising deficits and slowing growth high crude prices could further complicate matters. Things are different this time as both the perils weak rupee and high oil prices have come back to haunt the economy and the government lacks firepower It is falling behind its revenue targets and overshooting expenditure targets India imports 80% of the oil it needs domestic consumption has been growing at a high pace. Rising global prices created a huge fiscal burden on India as the costs are not fully passed on.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> 'The increase in crude oil prices in itself will have a negative impact on oil-importing countries like Japan by causing a large deficit in the current account balance through a worsening of the terms of trade and by lowering their purchasing power in real terms ' Shirakawa said. He said the largest factor behind the current high crude oil prices is heightened geopolitical risk surrounding Iran whose ambition to develop nuclear capacity has invited a threat from Israel to make a pre-emptive strike. An easing of the European debt crisis an improvement of the U.S. economy and monetary easing around the world have also led to higher oil prices he said. 'If such price increases have a strong negative impact on the economy by lowering its purchasing power in real terms it could become a factor dampening the economy in the long term ' said the governor. But on the upside he said 'If the high crude oil prices are caused by expectations for an improvement in the global economy such an improvement itself could be a factor boosting the Japanese economy through higher exports.' For an economy mired in years of deflation the recent rise in crude oil prices could push up domestic prices and thus raise the public inflation expectations Shirakawa said. But he didn't say whether this would be good for Japan's recovery as higher raw material costs would squeeze corporate profits and higher gasoline and heating oil prices would dent disposable incomes amid a slow recovery in wages. </source> [/INST] <claim>High prices hurt the Japanese economy</claim> <psg>increase in crude oil prices will have a negative impact on oil-importing countries like Japan by causing a large deficit in the current account balance through a worsening of the terms of trade and by lowering their purchasing power the largest factor behind the high oil prices is heightened geopolitical risk surrounding Iran whose ambition to develop nuclear capacity invited a threat from Israel to make a pre-emptive strike. easing of the European debt crisis improvement of the U.S. economy and monetary easing around the world led to higher oil prices price increases have a strong negative impact on the economy by lowering purchasing power For an economy mired in years of deflation the rise in crude oil prices could push up domestic prices and the public inflation Japan's higher raw material costs would squeeze corporate profits and higher gasoline and oil prices would dent disposable incomes amid a slow recovery in wages.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Are higher oil prices good for Japan’s economy? No they’re not. Yet some commentators believe that surging commodities costs might make Japan’s persistent deflation simply go away. “Japan could do with a little inflation. At home at least ” James Simms wrote in a recent online column for The Wall Street Journal. Noting that prices for Japanese imports jumped 4.7 percent in January over last year he added “Not everyone’s groaning over the rise in commodities prices. Mining equipment makers such as Hitachi Construction Machinery will benefit from sales as commodity exporters rush to increase production while prices are high.” Unfortunately the idea that rising commodity prices might be a boon to Japan is based on a misunderstanding of some key economic principles. Let’s start by answering this question: Why does deflation or a general decrease in the prices of goods and services have a depressive effect on the economy? First deflation reduces incomes yet debt stays the same so it worsens balance sheet problems and reduces spending by businesses and individuals. Two the expectation of future deflation means that any borrowing done now will have to be repaid out of smaller wages (if the borrower is a household) or smaller profits (if the borrower is a firm) later on. Thus the expectation of future deflation also reduces spending. So does a rise in food and energy prices do anything to alleviate these problems? No. In fact it makes them worse by reducing purchasing power. As I have pointed out in the past Japan suffers from inadequate consumer demand and this one of the main reasons its economy faces persistent deflation. In a way Japan’s situation illustrates the need for economists in public discourse to differentiate between inflation measures — core inflation (which excludes things that are subject to volatile price fluctuations) and headline inflation (which doesn’t exclude anything). While the global commodity surge may temporarily lead to rising headline prices in Japan as it is now the underlying deflation problem won’t be affected at all. This debate is related but not exactly similar to the usual case I make for the need to focus on core inflation. I have suggested this with regard to European Central Bank which often switches between inflation measures using whichever one currently makes the best case for tighter policy. In this case my point is that looking at only one chosen inflation rate is a bad guide for policy. Backstory: Volatile Predictions By Suzanne Lorge Will Japan’s economy which has been experiencing deflation for the past two decades strengthen now that commodities prices are on the rise worldwide or will it continue to stagnate? That question is at the core of a debate raging among investors and economists. Recent economic reports show that deflation in Japan slowed slightly in January but analysts point out that when volatile food and fuel prices are removed from the calculations annualized consumer prices actually fell 0.6 percent. But others predict that the inflation problem that is currently proving so troublesome for countries like China one of Japan’s main trading partners will push up prices on goods and services in Japan thus increasing prices for exports and helping to boost its economy. However prices would have to rise across the board. A spike only in commodities prices would be bad news for the Japanese who rely mostly on imported oil. The price of oil hit $100 per barrel in the first week of March an increase brought on by political unrest in Libya and other nations in the Arab world. The last time oil prices spiked to that level in 2008 the yen fell 7 percent in four months. </source> [/INST] <claim>High oil prices bad for Japan’s economy </claim> <psg>Are higher oil prices good for Japan’s economy? No some believe surging commodities costs might make Japan’s persistent deflation simply go away. Unfortunately the idea that rising commodity prices might be a boon to Japan is based on a misunderstanding of some key economic principles. deflation reduces incomes yet debt stays the same so it worsens balance sheet problems and reduces spending by businesses and individuals expectation of future deflation means that any borrowing done now will have to be repaid out of smaller wages or smaller profit does a rise in food and energy prices do anything to alleviate these problems? it makes them worse by reducing purchasing power. Japan suffers from inadequate consumer demand Japan’s situation illustrates the need for economists to differentiate between inflation measures and headline inflation the underlying deflation problem won’t be affected at all. deflation in Japan slowed slightly but when volatile food and fuel prices are removed from the calculations annualized consumer prices actually fell A spike only in commodities prices would be bad news for the Japanese who rely on imported oil. The price of oil hit $100 per barrel The last time oil prices spiked to that level the yen fell 7 percent in four months.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Because there is a strong perception as of the end of 2005 of the abnormally high prices as being temporary the economic impact has also been perceived as temporary. However if the abnormally high prices are unexpectedly prolonged there is concern that the Asian economy may receive a body blow damage especially from the impact of (2) and (3) above. The impact is likely to particularly massive on the oil-importing developing countries in Asia where industrialization is progressing. Long-term Increase in Asia’s Oil Imports It is predicted that the rapid expansion of net oil imports by Asia will continue over the long term due to the bullish increase in demand for oil accompanying economic development (Figure 4.4). In the 1980s Japan was the primary oil importer but throughout the 1990s oil imports by China East Asia and South Asia grew and are currently double the amount of Japan’s imports. Henceforth oil imports by this region are forecast to expand to just under three time those of Japan by 2010 just over four times by 2020 and just under six times by 2030. What this signifies is that dependence on Middle Eastern oil will quantitatively further increase. Oil imports from the Middle East quantitatively doubled from 1985 to 2004 and it is possible that they will further double between the current time and 2030. To the extent that dependence on the Middle East increases the occurrence of any emergency situation in that region that obstructs the supply of oil will have a grave impact. Having experienced two oil shocks in the 1970s and prepared an emergency system including oil stocks it was possible to respond relatively calmly to the Gulf crisis in 1990 and the Iraq War in 2003. As a result of that however an increasing number of people lack clear awareness of the oil crisis and so there is concern that people may panic if an emergency situation were to occur across Asia. Issues to Be Overcome by Asia Through 2004 and 2005 oil prices soared and remained high but this is not related to the problem of exhaustion of oil resources. There is no need to aim excessively for independence from oil which is not economically feasible. It is enough if oil resources are used rationally by employing the right resources in the right places. Judging from the weakening of the supply cushion due to delayed long-term investment and the oil market’s overreaction due to increased speculative deals in the futures market it is difficult to avoid wild fluctuations and to ensure stabilization of oil prices. To deal with these kinds of changes in the supply and demand structure it is necessary for Asia to boost its strength and flexibility as a consumer region while overcoming the issues stated below. (1) Development of the oil market: It is necessary to build international oil markets that represent consumer regions such as Rotterdam in Europe and the Gulf Coast in the United States and to transmit price information to inform competition among energies in the consumer region. (2) Flexibility to switch fuels in consumer regions: It is necessary to have the capacity in the consumer regions to mix different types of energies such as oil coal and gas and to easily switch among them. For instance a gasifier plant may be considered as one option. (3) Construction of emergency oil stocks and a coordinated utilization system: It is necessary for Asian countries to build their own emergency oil stocks corresponding to their economic level and to construct a system for coordination in the event that the stocks are utilized. (4) Preparation of oil stocks at the consumer level: Since it is unlikely that oil companies will increase stocks because it is costly if violent oil price fluctuations become unavoidable then consumers need to prepare stocks to deal with violent price fluctuations. (5) Development of oil and gas resources in the former Soviet Union and preparation of a supply network: As a source other than the Middle East for oil and gas it is necessary to put effort into development of oil and gas resources in the former Soviet Union and to prepare a supply network such as a pipeline to Asia. (6) Development of technology for effective usage of coal available in the region: To effectively utilize coal which is a promising resource available in Asia it is necessary to promote development of clean coal technology which is earth friendly. (7) Development and spread of energy conservation and environmental conservation technology: So as to ensure the environmental integrity of energy usage and to not needlessly expand energy demand it is necessary to ensure the spread to developing countries of energy-saving technology and environmental conservation technology. (8) Development of renewable energy and new energy: It is necessary to develop nonfossil renewable energies etc. that are sufficiently competitive and have the supply capacity to compete with fossil fuels. Heretofore energy demand was considered to be fixed and the emphasis has been on ensuring diversity and stability of energy acquired from outside the country or the region. In the future it will be important to change our way of thinking and to increase the strength and flexibility of the consumer regions. The global oil supply-demand structure is entering a new phase and based on that there are multiple issues that need to be tackled in the twenty-first century. </source> [/INST] <claim>High oil prices hurt the Asian economy – renewables key to solve </claim> <psg>if abnormally high prices are prolonged the Asian economy may receive a body blow damage The impact is particularly massive on oil-importing developing countries in Asia rapid expansion of oil imports by Asia will continue over the long term due to the bullish increase in demand for oil accompanying economic development dependence on Middle Eastern oil will quantitatively further increase. Oil imports from the Middle East will further double between the current time and 2030 the occurrence of any emergency situation in that region that obstructs the supply of oil will have a grave impact an increasing number of people lack awareness of the oil crisis there is concern that people may panic if an emergency situation were to occur across Asia. To deal with changes in the supply and demand structure it is necessary for Asia to boost its strength and flexibility as a consumer region Development of renewable energy It is necessary to develop nonfossil renewable energies that are competitive with fossil fuels. it will be important to change our way of thinking and increase the strength and flexibility of the consumer regions. The global oil supply-demand structure is entering a new phase</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The high price of oil could threaten Japan's economic growth the country's economics minister said on Friday. “Japan's economy is showing positive signs of emerging from a soft patch but oil prices may become a risk factor ” Heizo Takenaka told a news conference. Mr Takenaka's comments made as oil prices rose close to record nominal highs underscored fears that Japan's recent economic progress could be derailed by factors that ministers would shrug off if growth was more robust. Economists say the Japanese economy is less affected in direct terms than most other large economies by rising oil prices. But oil prices could exert an indirect effect by weakening global economic growth hitting overseas demand for Japanese goods. Paul Sheard economist at Lehman Brothers said: “Given that Japan is very much struggling to get on its feet” higher oil prices could create a “headwind more through the indirect than the direct effect.” Hiroyuki Hosoda chief cabinet secretary told a separate news conference on Friday he was “concerned” by oil's rising cost “as its negative effect on the world's economic development is large”. The cabinet's chief spokesman said a slowdown in the world economy could lead to lower Japanese exports. </source> [/INST] <claim>High oil prices derail Japanese recovery </claim> <psg>The high price of oil threaten Japan's economic growth Japan's economy is showing positive signs but oil prices may become a risk factor Japan's recent economic progress could be derailed oil prices weaken global economic growth hitting overseas demand for Japanese goods. Japan is very much struggling to get on its feet higher oil prices could create a “headwind chief cabinet secretary told a news conference he was “concerned” by oil's rising cost its negative effect on the world's economic development is large a slowdown in the world economy could lead to lower Japanese exports.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The global demand for energy is currently growing beyond the limits of installable generation capacity. To meet future energy demands efficiently energy security and reliability must be improved and alternative energy sources must be investigated aggressively. An effective energy solution should be able to address long-term issues by utilizing alternative and renewable energy sources. Of the many available renewable sources of energy solar energy is clearly a promising option as it is extensively available. Solar power especially as it reaches more competitive levels with other energy sources in terms of cost may serve to sustain the lives of millions of underprivileged people in developing countries. Furthermore solar energy devices can benefit the environment and economy of developing countries. This paper illustrates the need for the utilization of alternative energy sources evaluates the global scenario of installed generation systems reviews technologies underlying various solar powered devices and discusses several applications and challenges in this area. In addition this paper addresses the costs of deployment maintenance and operation as well as economic policies that promote installation of solar energy systems. </source> [/INST] <claim>Alternatives key – solar solves </claim> <psg>global demand for energy is growing beyond the limits of installable generation capacity. To meet future energy demands efficiently alternative energy sources must be investigated aggressively. An effective energy solution should be able to address long-term issues by utilizing alternative and renewable energy sources. solar energy is a promising option Solar power may sustain the lives of millions solar energy devices benefit the environment and economy of developing countries. need for the utilization of alternative energy sources</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Solar technologies are an extremely promising renewable resource considering their ever-increasing output efficiencies and ability to be utilized in a variety of locations. The intrinsic qualities of solar energy make it a beneficial utility especially for developing countries for many reasons: first most developing countries are located in regions with optimal access to the sun's rays. This is illustrated in Fig. 2. For instance India's solar power reception is about 5000 trillion kWh per year. In addition the average radiation in tropical and sub-tropical regions located in developing countries can be compared to that of annual global radiation of about 1600–2200 kWh/m2[4]. Second most of the available fossil fuel and energy resources can only be used by exploiting the ecosystem which leads to social decline. Third rising global independence of fossil fuels quickens the need for solar technology escalates enhancement of required research and thereby lowers related costs. Fourth solar systems are relatively affordable and applicable to both homes and villages as households of industrialized nations are using more solar power than ever before. Finally within solar technologies passive solar designs excel when considering renewable energy for buildings and can be coupled with solar panels to achieve maximum comfort and sustainability. </source> [/INST] <claim>Solar is most beneficial for developing countries </claim> <psg>Solar technologies are an extremely promising renewable resource considering their ever-increasing output efficiencies and ability to be utilized in a variety of locations intrinsic qualities of solar energy make it beneficial for developing countries most developing countries are in regions with optimal access to the sun's rays. the average radiation in tropical and sub-tropical regions in developing countries can be compared to that of annual global radiation most of the available fossil fuel and energy resources can only be used by exploiting the ecosystem which leads to social decline rising global independence of fossil fuels quickens the need for solar technology solar systems are affordable and applicable to homes and villages within solar technologies passive solar designs excel for buildings and can be coupled with solar panels to achieve maximum sustainability</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Driven by advances in technology and increase in manufacturing scale and sophistication the cost of PV cells has declined steadily since the first solar cells were manufactured [10]. Although the cost of electricity produced from PV systems is still higher than the other competing technologies this cost is expected to continue to decline steadily. The cost of PV installation was $2 per unit of generating capacity in 2009 which came-down to about $1.50 in 2011. According to industry analysis this price is slated to reach $1 per unit of generating capacity by 2013. These potential reductions in cost combined with the simplicity versatility reliability and low environmental impact of PV systems should help PV systems to become highly utilized sources of economical premium-quality power over the next 20–30 years. At present in the USA the levelized cost of energy from PV is $0.211/kWh and from CSP is $0.312/kWh [33]. Solar electric prices today are at approximately $0.30/kWh or around 2–5 times the average residential electricity tariffs (the calculation depends on installation location and local electric rates). This is due to the high installation costs involved. Table 2 shows a comparison of the construction cost operation and maintenance cost and fuel costs for various sources of electricity generation. In developing countries SES can provide the basic energy needs of houses in remote and rural areas at a fraction of the cost spent on traditional electricity. Thus the cost of electricity from PV systems is relatively cost effective. Demand for solar powered systems is very high in countries with high electricity tariffs. Fig. 6(a) shows the improvement in affordability of both solar thermal and solar PV systems. Fig. 6(b) illustrates the current electricity costs of generation using various major renewable energy sources. </source> [/INST] <claim>Solar is the most preferable </claim> <psg>the cost of PV cells has declined steadily since the first solar cells were manufactured The cost of PV installation was $2 per unit of generating capacity in 2009 which came-down to $1.50 in 2011 potential reductions in cost combined with the simplicity versatility reliability and low environmental impact of PV systems help PV systems to become highly utilized sources of economical premium-quality power In developing countries SES provide basic energy needs of houses in remote and rural areas at a fraction of the cost spent on traditional electricity PV is cost effective Demand for solar is high</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The main role of all types of solar power in developing countries is twofold: easing the burden of energy production for everyday tasks and lessening the carbon emissions of developing economies. Pursuing these goals will aid in reducing poverty and increasing the general well-being of individuals in these countries [54]. As an example 30–40% of energy is typically spent on water heating that is done by hauling/burning wood or other fossil fuels [54]. The addition of a solar powered water heating system would lead to increased freedom from this burden (leading to opportunities to pursue other ventures) and increased hygiene due to installed plumbing [54]. Due to these obvious benefits of solar installations in developing countries much work has been completed regarding general policy [28] [55] [56] [57] [58] and [59] and viability [56] [60] and [61] while also heavily investigating individual locations [28] [62] and [63]. While this work is extensive it can be summarized in by considering a few main issues: (1) the use of solar in developing countries is highly beneficial in terms of independence health and economic growth (2) governments need to put policies in place that attract investment and encourage development of this sector and (3) solar in general is an excellent option for developing countries due to their access to high levels of sunlight. 9. Conclusions Solar power is proving to be an attractive opportunity in terms of both business and power generation. Significant improvements have already been accomplished by numerous international governmental and non-governmental organizations including the funding and development of projects involving renewable energy systems for various developed as well as developing nations. This progress is transforming uninhabitable conditions into quality living spaces and providing new luxuries to those who were once lacking. Ecosystems developing societies and the solar energy market will only benefit from an increase in solar PV system installations. Funding for these systems however is a challenging aspect when considering the widespread demand. Fortunately as more and more organizations volunteer their financial professional and technical services solar energy is becoming more cost effective. </source> [/INST] <claim>Solar power is equitable and can be scaled up </claim> <psg>The main role of solar is easing the burden of energy production for everyday tasks and lessening carbon emissions these goals will aid in reducing poverty and increasing well-being of individuals 30–40% of energy is spent on hauling/burning wood or other fossil fuels solar powered water heating system lead to increased freedom from this burden and increased hygiene work has been completed regarding policy the use of solar in developing countries is highly beneficial in terms of independence health and economic growth governments need policies that attract investment and encourage development of this sector and solar is an excellent option for developing countries Solar power is an attractive opportunity in terms of business and power generation progress is transforming uninhabitable conditions into quality living spaces and providing new luxuries to those who were once lacking. Ecosystems developing societies and the solar market will only benefit from an increase in solar PV installations. Funding is challenging</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The demand on fresh water is growing steadily and is becoming one of the worldwide challenges. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 20% of the world's population has inadequate access to drinking water. Although over two-thirds of the planet is covered with water 99.3% of the total water is either too salty (seawater) or inaccessible (ice caps). Since water is potable only when it contains less than 500 ppm of salt much research has gone into finding efficient methods of removing salt from seawater and brackish water. These are called desalination processes. Desalination of seawater is a promising alternative to compensate for the shortage of drinking water. Generally desalination can be accomplished using a number of techniques. These may be classified under the following categories:Thermal processes that involve phase change such as Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) and Multi Stage Flash (MSF). Membrane processes that do not involve phase change such as Reverse Osmosis (RO) and electro dialysis (ED).Hybrid process that involve both membrane and phase change such as membrane distillation (MD). The thermal desalination processes depend on the evaporation of water by the addition of heat provided by the sun or by combustion processes this was one of mankind's earliest forms of water treatment and is still a popular treatment solution. On the other hand the development of modern polymeric materials in recent years has led to the production of membranes which allow the selective passage of water in liquid or vapor state or ions and thus providing the basis for membrane desalination processes. Among those membrane processes RO is the leading commercial membrane desalination process which requires applying high pressure to overcome the osmotic pressure. It is worth mentioning that both thermal and RO are the leading desalination processes in the water market [1]. However those processes suffer from drawbacks and some technical difficulties which are: i) They are considered energy intensive either by the heat demand (i.e. thermal processes) or by the high pressure demand as in reverse osmosis process this high energy consumption generates more pollutants and undesired emissions. ii) The scaling and fouling problem is one of the major challenges that adds to the complexity and cost of those processes. iii) The membrane cost and its durability in the membrane processes are still immature subjects that require more research and development. These drawbacks affected the economic feasibility of those processes which necessitates the search for alternative environment friendly and sustainable desalination. Membrane distillation (MD) is a promising new comer to the desalination processes which can be coupled to low-grade and renewable energy source such as wind and solar energy. The developments in the use of renewable energy sources (RES) have demonstrated that it is ideally suited for desalination when the demand of fresh water is not too large. The rapid escalation in the costs of fuels has made the RES alternative more attractive. In certain remote arid regions this may be the only alternative. The interdependence of water and energy is increasingly evident due to their territorial environmental and economic implications. Innovations in the area of energy supply can improve the economic viability of prospective desalination plants considerably. Recently considerable attention has been given to the use of renewable energy including solar wind and geothermal as sources for desalination especially in remote areas and islands because of the high costs of fossil fuels. Solar energy can be used for seawater desalination either by producing the thermal energy required to drive the phase-change processes or by producing the electricity required to drive the membrane processes. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables are key to desalination </claim> <psg>demand on fresh water is growing steadily and becoming one of the worldwide challenges 20% of the population has inadequate access to drinking water Since water is potable only when it contains less than 500 ppm of salt much research has gone into finding efficient methods of removing salt from seawater Desalination of seawater is a promising alternative to compensate for the shortage of drinking water. Membrane distillation is a promising new comer to the desalination processes which can be coupled to low-grade and renewable energy source such as wind and solar developments in the use of renewable energy sources demonstrated that it is ideally suited for desalination rapid escalation in the costs of fuels made the RES alternative attractive this may be the only alternative. interdependence of water and energy is increasingly evident due to territorial environmental and economic implications. Innovations in energy supply improve the economic viability of prospective desalination plants considerably. considerable attention has been given to renewable energy including solar wind and geothermal as sources for desalination because of the high costs of fossil fuels. Solar energy can be used for seawater desalination by producing the thermal energy required to drive the phase-change processes or by producing the electricity required to drive the membrane processes.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Over one-third of the world’s population already lives in areas struggling to keep up with the demand for fresh water. By 2025 that number will nearly double. Some countries have met the challenge by tapping into natural sources of fresh water but as many examples – such as the much-depleted Jordan River – have demonstrated many of these practices are far from sustainable. A new Yale University study argues that seawater desalination should play an important role in helping combat worldwide fresh water shortages once conservation reuse and other methods have been exhausted. The study also provides insights into how desalination technology can be made more affordable and energy efficient. “The globe’s oceans are a virtually inexhaustible source of water but the process of removing its salt is expensive and energy intensive ” said Menachem Elimelech a professor of chemical and environmental engineering at Yale and lead author of the study which appears in the Aug. 5 issue of the journal Science. Reverse osmosis – forcing seawater through a membrane that filters out the salt – is the leading method for seawater desalination in the world today. For years scientists have focused on increasing the membrane’s water flux using novel materials such as carbon nanotubes to reduce the amount of energy required to push water through it. </source> [/INST] <claim>Desalination solves water scarcity </claim> <psg>Over one-third of the world lives in areas struggling to keep up with demand for fresh water that number will double awater desalination should play an important role in helping combat worldwide fresh water shortages The globe’s oceans are a inexhaustible source of water but the process of removing its salt is expensive and energy intensive Reverse osmosis is the leading method for seawater desalination</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Green technology not only helps to sustain the environment but it also helps to sustain the US economy by providing new jobs. A Brookings Institution report estimates that between 2008 and 2011 the number of green jobs in the US grew 260 percent from 750 000 to 2.7 million. Much of this job creation stems from the increased awareness of and demand for green technology by the consuming public. Manufacturing New Jobs With an increased focus on job creation during this election year one particular sector has seen ongoing growth: manufacturing. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April 2012 Employment Situation Summary the manufacturing industry added 489 000 jobs in the US since January 2010. With the high demand for green technology and sustainable energy solutions comes the growth of jobs in the cleantech manufacturing industry. The Brookings Institution also reports more jobs in the green technology and renewable energy industries than in the fossil fuel sector with 26 percent of cleantech jobs being in manufacturing. An increase in job creation will directly impact the domestic economy and job market—so long as we make manufacturing advancements in the US and create and sustain the jobs. Developing and manufacturing energy storage technology domestically results in national profit from cost savings environmental benefits increased job availability and national competitive advantage. With the development and improvement of energy storage technology such as ultracapacitors the prices of these systems will drop leading to mass adoption of applications that use them such as electric vehicles. As a result consumers will experience significant fuel cost savings and harmful emissions will be less likely to enter the atmosphere. The continued demand for better energy storage options results in more jobs created in the ultracapacitor manufacturing industry. Companies in the space will expand their product lines resulting in more hiring across their businesses from manufacturing to sales to administration. Small Businesses Equals Big Job Opportunities According to a recent report by the US Small Business Administration small businesses outperformed large companies in net job creation by about 75 percent from 1992-2010. This growth coupled with the nation’s entrepreneurial spirit contributes to the United States’ competitive advantage by innovating creating jobs and stimulating economic recovery. Another study by the US Small Business Administration finds small businesses responsible for much of the green technology innovation. Small businesses hold 14 percent of all US green technology patents. Given the job creation by small businesses coupled with the innovation within the green technology space it only makes sense that opportunities with small businesses in green technologies will abound. Made in the USA In addition to creating new jobs in the clean technology manufacturing space we’re also witnessing increases in American companies reshoring and bringing jobs back home. While offshoring was once popular due to the reduced operational costs in overseas markets reshoring has a growing appeal due to such factors as high fuel prices raising shipping and transport costs. A survey conducted by engineering professor and supply-chain expert David Simchi-Levi of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that 39 percent of U.S. manufacturers were contemplating moving some of their manufacturing operations back to the US. By reshoring various business operations and not just manufacturing jobs companies not only help the American job market but also gain better quality control. There is value and pride in having a product labeled as both a green technology and “made in America.” Domestic manufacturing of clean technology improves a company’s image with both internal and external stakeholders creating pride among employees and a strong reputation with the public and customers. Not only that but it taps into a sense of patriotism for having impacted the U.S. economy by producing more exports and more domestic jobs. If the US fails to take the initiative to design and manufacture innovations in renewable energy we will miss out and our foreign competitors will reap the benefits. We will move from a dependency on foreign oil to a dependency on foreign energy storage. President Obama echoed this sentiment in his State of the Union address in January proposing tax incentives for companies bringing their operations back to the U.S. and tax penalties for those who do not. He declared “It’s time to stop rewarding businesses that ship jobs overseas and start rewarding companies that create jobs right here in America.” The End Goal Cleantech manufacturing provides the necessary support to increase the nation’s renewable energy output. Cost-efficiency savings and a greater number of jobs are great perks resulting from the growth of the cleantech industry but the main goal of clean technology remains the widespread adoption of renewable energy applications for a cleaner more sustainable environment. </source> [/INST] <claim>The US needs to create clean tech—key to solve warming employment and prevent foreign energy dependence</claim> <psg>Green technology not only helps to sustain the environment but it also helps to sustain the US economy by providing new jobs. between 2008 and 2011 the number of green jobs in the US grew 260 percent from 750 000 to 2.7 million. Much of this job creation stems from the increased awareness of green technology by the consuming public. With an increased focus on job creation during this election year one particular sector has seen ongoing growth: manufacturing. the manufacturing industry added 489 000 jobs in the US since January 2010. With the high demand for green technology and sustainable energy solutions comes the growth of jobs in the cleantech manufacturing industry. The Brookings Institution also reports more jobs in the green technology and renewable energy industries than in the fossil fuel sector An increase in job creation will directly impact the domestic economy and job market—so long as we make advancements and sustain the jobs. Developing and manufacturing energy storage technology domestically results in national profit from cost savings environmental benefits increased job availability and national competitive advantage. consumers will experience significant fuel cost savings and harmful emissions will be less likely to enter the atmosphere. The continued demand for better energy storage options results in more jobs created in the ultracapacitor manufacturing industry. This growth coupled with the nation’s entrepreneurial spirit contributes to the United States’ competitive advantage by innovating creating jobs and stimulating economic recovery. Administration finds small businesses responsible for much of the green technology innovation. Small businesses hold 14 percent of all US green technology patents. Given the job creation by small businesses coupled with the innovation within the green technology space it only makes sense that opportunities with small businesses in green technologies will abound. In addition to creating new jobs in the clean technology manufacturing space we’re also witnessing increases in American companies reshoring and bringing jobs back home. ompanies not only help the American job market but also gain better quality control. There is value and pride in having a product labeled as both a green technology and “made in America.” it taps into a sense of patriotism for having impacted the U.S. economy by producing more exports and more domestic jobs. If the US fails to take the initiative to design and manufacture innovations in renewable energy we will miss out and our foreign competitors will reap the benefits. We will move from a dependency on foreign oil to a dependency on foreign energy storage. Cleantech manufacturing provides the necessary support to increase the nation’s renewable energy output. Cost-efficiency savings and a greater number of jobs are great perks resulting from the growth of the cleantech industry but the main goal of clean technology remains the widespread adoption of renewable energy applications for a cleaner more sustainable environment.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Protecting our national security growing our economy and avoiding the most catastrophic effects of global climate change require massively restructuring our energy system. Over the next 10 years the United States needs to move from a fossil-fuel-based economy to one powered by clean domestic energy. Navigating this transition will require hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital investment from both public and private sources. We also need to reverse the current jobs crisis in a time of tight federal budgets and financial austerity. The solution is a Green Bank which is the right tool to unlock private capital investment to renew America’s energy infrastructure and create jobs. A transformed clean energy economy will rely on both deploying existing and proven technologies and the development of new highly innovative high-growth technologies and business practices that today are still being developed in laboratories and business incubators. The U.S. government has an important function in developing better tools for financing and commercializing new energy solutions and bringing them to commercial scale. Through a tool such as the Green Bank the government also will support private investor leadership in unlocking this dynamic engine of jobs growth and competitiveness. The United States will not remain a global leader in technology innovation in the clean energy sector without a sustained effort to move advanced energy from basic research to early phase R&D through to commercialization manufacturing at scale and the deployment of these technologies in functioning energy markets. Meeting this challenge has tremendous implications for America’s economic recovery and the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. Yet very real structural barriers exist to financing this technology innovation process and sustaining the new jobs and industries it already supports. These financial market barriers are over and above the cyclical investment challenges that already hurt new investment as a result of the global economic downturn. Many of our economic competitors already established clean energy finance entities to overcome these barriers. Sustainable Development Technology Canada provides a useful model as well as green banks in the United Kingdom Germany and China. Launching a Green Bank financing facility here in the United States to attract new private capital to key domestic investments on our shores offers a proven market-driven and truly bipartisan approach to reigniting capital markets in support of American business innovation. This memo outlines a specific proposal to improve private capital markets for clean energy investment in the United States through the development of a dedicated independent Green Bank which can be pursued either as a standalone facility or within the context of a broader program of infrastructure finance. </source> [/INST] <claim>Green economy solves warming the economy and national security</claim> <psg>Protecting our national security growing our economy and avoiding the most catastrophic effects of global climate change require massively restructuring our energy system. Over the next 10 years the United States needs to move from a fossil-fuel-based economy to one powered by clean domestic energy. Navigating this transition will require hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital investment We also need to reverse the current jobs crisis The solution is a Green Bank which is the right tool to unlock private capital investment to renew America’s energy infrastructure and create jobs. the Green Bank the government also will support private investor leadership in unlocking this dynamic engine of jobs growth and competitiveness. The United States will not remain a global leader in technology innovation in the clean energy sector without a sustained effort to move advanced energy Meeting this challenge has tremendous implications for America’s economic recovery and the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. This memo outlines a specific proposal to improve private capital markets for clean energy investment in the United States through the development of a dedicated independent Green Bank which can be pursued either as a standalone facility or within the context of a broader program of infrastructure finance.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Tens of millions of new jobs can be created around the world in the next two decades if green policies are put in place to switch the high-carbon economy to low-carbon the UN has said. Between 15 million and 60 million additional jobs are likely according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). These are net gains in employment for the world economy taking into account any job losses in high-carbon industries that fail to transform. Achim Steiner executive director of UNEP said: 'The findings underline that [the green economy] can include millions more people in terms of overcoming poverty and delivering improved livelihoods for this and future generations. It is a positive message of opportunity in a troubled world of challenges.' As well as generating net new gains in the number of jobs the switch to a green economy could help to lift millions of people out of poverty. In the US there are now about three million green jobs in sectors such as wind power and energy efficiency the study found. In the UK the number is close to one million and has been one of the few areas of the economy that has been creating jobs. There are about 500 000 people working in green jobs in Spain. In the developing world too the number is growing rapidly—about 7 percent of people employed in Brazil amounting to three million people are now in the green economy. However realizing the full potential of green jobs depends on countries taking action to develop the green economy and bringing in policies that will foster investment according to the report. Juan Somavia director general of the International Labour Organisation which was co-author of the report said: 'The current development model has proven to be inefficient and unsustainable not only for the environment but for economies and societies as well. We urgently need to move to a sustainable development path with a coherent set of policies with people and the planet at the center.' He rebuffed claims that greening industry would lead to job losses because of the changes to some traditional industries such as fossil fuel extraction. He said: 'Environmental sustainability is not a job killer as it is sometimes claimed. On the contrary if properly managed it can lead to more and better jobs poverty reduction and social inclusion. Some areas are more vulnerable to losses—global fishing fleets for instance will probably have to be reduced if overfishing is to be tackled and fishermen will have to be found new employment. But the report found that long-term sustainable management could avoid job losses. For instance an estimated one million people in Asia may have lost jobs in forestry because of poor resource management which could have been largely avoided with better policies and enforcement. Jobs easily identified as 'green'—workers in renewable energy for instance maintaining forests or installing insulation—are not the only ones to be touched by the shift to a more environmentally sustainable economy. At least half of the global workforce will be affected in some way by 2030 the study found. This will stretch from people whose industrial processes are overhauled to cut greenhouse gases to farmers who change their methods to be more environmentally friendly and workers in the construction industry who begin to install new greener materials. Some of the sectors identified in the report as being most affected by the changes include agriculture forestry fishing energy resource-intensive manufacturing recycling building and transport. Women could benefit—if the shift is managed properly it could provide them with better access to jobs and higher incomes. The study 'Working Towards Sustainable Development: Opportunities for Decent Work and Social Inclusion in a Green Economy ' has been timed to be published ahead of World Environment Day next week and to inform discussions at the landmark Rio+20 environmental conference where nations will attempt to work on a new set of targets and agreements to help halt environmental degradation around the world. </source> [/INST] <claim>Green economy solves poverty patriarchy and job growth</claim> <psg>Tens of millions of new jobs can be created around the world in the next two decades if green policies are put in place to switch the high-carbon economy to low-carbon Between 15 million and 60 million additional jobs are likely These are net gains in employment for the world economy taking into account any job losses in high-carbon industries that fail to transform. [the green economy] can include millions more people in terms of overcoming poverty and delivering improved livelihoods for this and future generations. As well as generating net new gains in the number of jobs the switch to a green economy could help to lift millions of people out of poverty. there are now about three million green jobs the number is growing rapidly in the green economy. realizing the full potential of green jobs depends on countries taking action to develop the green economy and bringing in policies that will foster investment The current development model has proven to be inefficient and unsustainable not only for the environment but for economies and societies as well. We urgently need to move to a sustainable development path with a coherent set of policies with people and the planet at the center.' Environmental sustainability is not a job killer as it is sometimes claimed. On the contrary it can lead to more and better jobs poverty reduction and social inclusion. long-term sustainable management could avoid job losses. an estimated one million people in Asia may have lost jobs in forestry which could have been largely avoided with better policies and enforcement. Jobs easily identified as 'green' are not the only ones to be touched by the shift to a more environmentally sustainable economy. At least half of the global workforce will be affected in some way by 2030 Women could benefit—if the shift is managed properly it could provide them with better access to jobs and higher incomes. nations will attempt to work on a new set of targets and agreements to help halt environmental degradation around the world.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The foregoing is an extended argument for regulation in climate policy. Nevertheless alone that is without technology-specific policy it is insufficient. The reason is that it will encourage the choice of currently cost-effective technological options to the detriment of environmental technologies that will perform better in the long term. In other words environmental regulation alone will suffer from a myopia bias. Economic studies anyway show that we should not expect a too large contribution from technological innovation to reducing CO2 emissions in the short to medium term (van den Bergh 2011b). This is partly due to the slow process of innovation from invention to large-scale market application. The bulk of emission reductions over the medium term must instead come from changes in behaviour using existing technology driven by price increases of fossil fuels. Nevertheless after 2040 a large-scale transition to renewable energy is only possible through breakthroughs in technology research. Pricing of CO2 will stimulate both the necessarily medium-term behavioural change and innovation for a long-term shift in technological regime. But technology policy such as a system of subsidies is needed to avoid early dominance of currently cost-effective technical options escape lock-in and keep open technology paths characterized by a great potential for learning and cost reduction. Note that a policy package consisting of carbon pricing and technology-specific policies can also be seen to stimulate a synthesis of market-pull and technology-push effects. </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables tech is key</claim> <psg>without technology-specific policy it will encourage the choice of currently cost-effective technological options to the detriment of environmental technologies that perform better in the long term a large-scale transition to renewable energy is only possible through breakthroughs in technology research. technology policy is needed to avoid early dominance of currently cost-effective technical options escape lock-in and keep open technology paths characterized by a great potential for learning and cost reduction</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The combustion of fossil fuels is largely responsible for the problems of climate change air pollution and energy insecurity. A combination of wind water and solar power is the best alternative to fossil fuels the authors write because renewable energy sources have near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants no long-term waste disposal problems and no risks of catastrophic accidents. Compared with nuclear energy and biomass energy the authors find that wind water and solar power alone would not only be advantageous but also feasible to meet 100 percent of the world’s energy needs. They explain how renewable energy systems can be designed and operated to ensure that power generation reliably matches demand. they calculate that these energy sources would cost less than fossil fuels when all costs to society are considered. and they recommend policies for easing the transition to energy systems based entirely on wind water and solar power. In May 2013 the average daily level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere passed 400 parts per million an increase of more than 40 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and the highest level on Earth in several million years.1 That same month scientists reported that Arctic sea ice one of the most visible and important indicators of global climate change was melting faster than most climate models have predicted raising the possibility that the summer Arctic will be nearly ice-free by as early as 2020 (Overland and Wang 2013). Around the world air pollution in mega-cities routinely exceeds international air quality standards set to protect human health. Globally the use of oil for transportation grows unabated exposing the world economy to price and supply volatility and exacerbating political and environmental problems in countries where oil is produced and consumed. These problems of climate change air pollution and energy insecurity are due primarily to the combustion of fossil fuels mainly coal oil and natural gas. Although increased energy efficiency improved emissions-control technology and oil sharing and stockpiling agreements can mitigate some of the negative environmental and energy-security impacts of fossil-fuel use these measures ultimately do little more than alleviate the pressure of increases in population and affluence. In order to avoid serious environmental and economic damages from energy use humans must stop using fossil fuels altogether as soon as possible. In the search for alternatives to fossil fuels scientists and policy makers have focused their attention on three replacements that are widely believed to have lower emissions of greenhouse gases the air pollutants responsible for climate change than do fossil fuels: nuclear power. energy from biomass. and a combination of wind water and solar power. The third option which includes wind turbines photovoltaic power plants and rooftop systems concentrated solar thermal power plants small-scale hydroelectric plants geothermal plants tidal turbines and wave energy converters has several advantages over nuclear energy and bioenergy including lower (near zero) emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants no problems of long-term waste disposal and no risks of catastrophic accidents. Despite the natural variability of wind water and solar power they can deliver energy as reliably as and more economically than the current fossil-fuel-based system when all costs to society are considered. Indeed energy systems worldwide can be run entirely on wind water and solar power making it unnecessary to pursue the less desirable alternatives of nuclear power and bioenergy. But there are a number of steps that are needed to begin such a transition. </source> [/INST] <claim>Fossil fuel dependence is dangerous – renewables are key to solve</claim> <psg>combustion of fossil fuels is responsible for climate change air pollution and energy insecurity. A combination of wind water and solar is the best alternative to fossil fuels renewable energy sources have near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants no long-term waste disposal problems and no risks of catastrophic accidents wind water and solar power alone would be feasible to meet 100 percent of the world’s energy needs renewable energy systems ensure power generation matches demand these energy sources cost less than fossil fuels when all costs to society are considered In May 2013 the average daily level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere passed 400 parts per million an increase of more than 40 percent since the industrial revolution and the highest level on Earth in several million years Arctic sea ice one of the most visible and important indicators of global climate change was melting faster than models predicted air pollution in mega-cities exceeds international air quality standards the use of oil for transportation grows unabated exposing the world economy to price and supply volatility and exacerbating political and environmental problems in countries where oil is produced and consumed. climate change air pollution and energy insecurity are due to the combustion of fossil fuels o avoid serious environmental and economic damages humans must stop using fossil fuels altogether as soon as possible. scientists and policy makers focused on replacements wind turbines photovoltaic power plants and rooftop systems concentrated solar thermal power plants small-scale hydroelectric plants geothermal plants tidal turbines and wave energy converters has several advantages including near zero emissions no problems of long-term waste disposal and no risks of catastrophic accidents. they can deliver energy as reliably as and more economically than the current fossil-fuel-based system energy systems worldwide can be run entirely on wind water and solar steps are needed to begin such a transition</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> This new energy future offers a pragmatic solution to climate change. Often assumed to be costly reducing carbon emissions is actually profitable since saving fuel costs less than buying fuel. Profits jobs and competitive advantage make for easier conversations than costs burdens and sacrifices and they need no global treaties to drive them. In 2009 the consulting firm McKinsey & Company found that projected greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 70 percent by 2030 at a trivial average cost of $6 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (the standard unit of global-warming impact). Including newer technologies and integrative designs could save even more carbon more cheaply and thus could more than meet the United States’ obligations under the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change while saving $5 trillion. Getting the United States off fossil fuels would transform its foreign policy. A world where the United States and other countries buy no oil because its price and price volatility exceed its value would have less oil-fed tyranny corruption terrorism tension and war. Washington no longer needing an oil-centric foreign policy could maintain normal relations with oil-exporting countries and treat diplomatic issues on their merits. The Pentagon would be pleased too. Today every one of the U.S. military’s nine combatant commands must protect oil assets and transportation routes—fighting tanker-hijacking pirates oª the coast of Somalia or pipeline-attacking militants from Latin America to Central Asia. The U.S. Army would love Mission Unnecessary in the Persian Gulf. the U.S. Navy would no longer need to worry as much about conflicts from the Arctic to the South China Sea. Proliferators meanwhile could no longer hide their intent behind civilian nuclear power in a world that acknowledged its marketplace collapse and the superiority of nonnuclear competitors. Nor could they draw on civilian skills materials and equipment. </source> [/INST] <claim>Oil dependence is bad – renewables key to solve</claim> <psg>new energy future offers a pragmatic solution to climate change. reducing carbon emissions is profitable greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 70 percent newer tech could save even more carbon more cheaply Getting the U S off fossil fuels would transform its foreign policy. A world where the U S and other countries buy no oil would have less oil-fed tyranny corruption terrorism tension and war. Washington no longer needing an oil-centric foreign policy could maintain normal relations with oil-exporting countries and treat diplomatic issues on their merits. The Pentagon would be pleased every one of the U.S. military’s nine combatant commands must protect oil assets and transportation routes The U.S. Army would love Mission Unnecessary in the Persian Gulf. the U.S. Navy would no longer need to worry about conflicts from the Arctic to the South China Sea. Proliferators could no longer hide their intent behind civilian nuclear power in a world that acknowledged its marketplace collapse and the superiority of competitors</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Phasing out fossil fuels would turbocharge global development which is also in the United States’ interest. Energy inefficiency is one of the biggest causes of persistent poverty. Oil purchases underlie much of the developing world’s debt and wasted energy diverts meager national and household budgets. Developing countries are on average one-third as energy efficient as rich ones and the poor often spend far more of their disposable income on energy than does the general population. Some 1.6 billion people live without electricity leaving many basic needs unmet hobbling health and development and trapping women and girls in uneducated penury. Investments in new electricity devour one-fourth of the world’s development capital. There is no stronger nor more neglected lever for global development than investing instead in making devices that save electricity. This would require about one-thousandth the capital and return it ten times as fast freeing up vast sums for other development needs. If the United States Europe China and India merely adopted highly efficient lights air conditioners refrigerators and tvs they could save $1 trillion and 300 coal plants. That is the goal of the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment Initiative an effort announced in 2009 and supported by 23 major countries. Developing countries with their rural villages burgeoning cities and slums and dilapidated infrastructures especially need renewable electricity and they now buy the majority of the world’s new renewable capacity. Some remote villages are not waiting for the wires but leapfrogging the grid: more Kenyans are getting electricity first from solar-power entrepreneurs than from traditional utilities. Such efforts as the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lumina Project have helped bring efficient and affordable solar-powered led lights to millions across Africa. These projects improve education. free up kerosene budgets for mosquito nets clean water and other necessities. and could eventually prevent 1.5 million deaths from lung disease annually. Just by switching from kerosene lamps to fluorescent ones one Indian village got 19 times as much light with one-ninth the energy and half the cost. </source> [/INST] <claim>Phasing out fossil fuels is crucial for developing nations </claim> <psg>Phasing out fossil fuels would turbocharge global development Energy inefficiency is one of the biggest causes of persistent poverty. Oil purchases underlie much of the developing world’s debt and wasted energy diverts meager national and household budgets. Developing countries are one-third as energy efficient as rich ones the poor spend far more on energy than the general population 1.6 billion live without electricity leaving many basic needs unmet hobbling health and development and trapping women and girls in uneducated penury. Investments in new electricity devour one-fourth of the world’s development capital Developing countries with rural villages burgeoning cities and slums and dilapidated infrastructures especially need renewable electricity These projects improve education. free up kerosene budgets for mosquito nets clean water and other necessities. and could prevent 1.5 million deaths from lung disease annually</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Rural electrification projects have been made central to each Central American country's development agenda because governments understand that energy use economic growth and level of development are highly correlated. Traditional use of energy has an inherent gender bias and electrification reduces labor time for women. Modern cooking appliances mean they no longer need to collect firewood and can spend less time cooking. Electricity use in rural homes is related to education levels and because there is a relationship between education and lifetime earnings use of energy that positively impacts education can be considered productive. Access to modern energy also has positive effects on health reducing pulmonary illness by replacing traditional cooking methods with modern stoves allowing refrigeration for rural clinics to store medicines and blood samples and enabling rural clinics to utilize more modern technologies. Greater electrification is also necessary to attract businesses that are reliant on electricity to rural areas which typically lag in investment.14 Governments have endeavored to expand electrical access to impoverished areas by attracting foreign donors to implement renewable energy projects such as individual household or community-based solar wind or geothermal installations in rural areas. Governments under economic strain prefer these projects because they require less financing than electrical grid extension. The utilization of renewable energy resources to electrify rural regions is not only cost-effective and environmentally sound. it empowers the community particularly women. The most common applications of renewable energy for off-grid energy services are for cooking lighting and other small electrical processes in industry water pumping and heating and cooling. These access strategies are key for poverty alleviation decreasing inequality increasing electrical coverage sustaining economic growth and increasing human development.15 </source> [/INST] <claim>Access to energy is crucial to solve structural violence </claim> <psg>Central American governments understand that energy use economic growth and level of development are highly correlated electrification reduces labor time for women. Modern cooking appliances mean they can spend less time cooking. Electricity use is related to education levels and because there is a relationship between education and lifetime earnings use of energy that positively impacts education can be considered productive. Access to modern energy has positive effects on health reducing pulmonary illness allowing refrigeration to store medicines and blood samples and enabling rural clinics to utilize more modern technologies. electrification attract businesses that are reliant on electricity to rural areas which lag in investment. Governments expand electrical access to impoverished areas by renewable energy projects in rural areas. utilization of renewable energy resources to electrify rural regions is not only cost-effective and environmentally sound. it empowers the community particularly women access strategies are key for poverty alleviation decreasing inequality increasing electrical coverage sustaining economic growth and increasing human development.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Energy policy plays a vital role in the mitigation of the impacts of global climate change. The adoption of renewable energy resources to supplant the use of fossil fuels effectively decreases greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Although Central America's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is low estimated to be only .8% of the total global emissions the effects of climate change pose a serious threat to the region vis-à-vis more frequent and intense hurricanes and storms flooding erosion less predictable rainfall...etc.16 The magnitude of these events is compounded by the fact that countries in this region lack the funds or the capacity to respond appropriately to these disasters. Increasingly climate change will cause alterations in hydrological cycles that will impact agriculture the region's most valuable economic sector and pose a threat to human security as storms become more intense.17 </source> [/INST] <claim>Renewables are key to solve warming and energy poverty </claim> <psg>Energy policy plays a vital role in the mitigation of global climate change adoption of renewable energy resources decreases greenhouse gas emissions the effects of climate change pose a serious threat to the region vis-à-vis frequent and intense hurricanes and storms flooding erosion less predictable rainfall The magnitude of these events is compounded by the fact that countries in this region lack the capacity to respond climate change will impact agriculture the region's most valuable economic sector and pose a threat to human security</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Ethical traditions both religious and secular provide tools for thinking about difficult¶ issues in a complicated world. They are thus a vital element of effective and successful¶ decision-making processes. This is especially important for sustainability which seeks to¶ integrate diverse and sometimes conflicting ethical and practical goals. Sustainable¶ decision-making involves a number of factors many of which are discussed in detail in¶ the next chapter. In this chapter we look at the distinctive contributions to that decisionmaking¶ process that might come from ethics as a philosophical subfield.¶ Ethics can help people identify the values that are most important to them and analyze¶ possible actions or outcomes in relation to these values. However ethics is not simply¶ about applying pre-established rules to clear-cut situations. First of all multiple values¶ are involved in many decisions and certainly in those that aim toward sustainability.¶ Thus the choice is never just between good or evil but rather among various goods.¶ Further the relationship among different goods is almost always complex. Rarely do¶ genuine goods stand in such stark opposition to each other that the choice is a simple one¶ between for example jobs or endangered species. Anyone who frames complicated¶ decisions in such dualistic terms is usually obscuring or ignoring important pieces of the¶ problem.¶ The issue of how to frame ethical problems in constructive and fruitful ways is vital but¶ underappreciated – it is especially relevant for problems of sustainability where popular¶ discourse often defines problems as stark choices between economic or environmental¶ goods. In such situations one of the most important tasks of ethics is asking questions¶ that help lead to good solutions. The philosopher Anthony Weston notes that “if we are¶ to find the best solutions to our ethical problems we first need to find the best¶ problems.”6 Better framing of ethical issues makes it possible to avoid obstacles that¶ frequently prevent people from arriving at solutions that maximize diverse goods. One of¶ the most common obstacles in both popular and scholarly ethics is the tendency to¶ conceive of decisions as dilemmas with only two mutually exclusive and opposed¶ solutions. When people stop thinking in terms of dualistic choices they may engage in¶ creative searches for alternative solutions that do not require the sacrifice of important¶ values. In searching for sustainability it may be possible both to preserve wildlife habitat¶ and to increase economic security for local residents for example by thinking creatively¶ about developing more sustainable kinds of jobs adopting different farming methods or¶ protecting land through innovate means such as wildlife corridors. Such expansive¶ solutions will not be possible however if decision makers understand economic and¶ environmental goods as mutually exclusive and thus see their moral choices as between¶ two diametrically opposed alternatives. </source> [/INST] <claim>Establishing dualisms between proposed solutions is ineffective </claim> <psg>ethics is not simply about applying pre-established rules to clear-cut situations multiple values are involved in many decisions that aim toward sustainability the choice is never just between good or evil but rather among various goods the relationship among different goods is complex Anyone who frames complicated decisions in such dualistic terms is obscuring important pieces of the problem The issue of how to frame ethical problems is vital especially for problems of sustainability where popular discourse defines problems as stark choices between economic or environmental goods if we are to find the best solutions to our ethical problems we first need to find the best problems One of the most common obstacles is the tendency to conceive of decisions as dilemmas with only two mutually exclusive and opposed solutions. When people stop thinking in terms of dualistic choices they engage in creative searches for alternative solutions that do not require the sacrifice of important values. In searching for sustainability it may be possible both to preserve wildlife habitat and increase economic security for residents expansive solutions will not be possible if decision makers understand economic and environmental goods as mutually exclusive and see their moral choices as between two diametrically opposed alternatives.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Another helpful category from environmental studies scholarship on consumption is¶ individualization which refers to the tendency to think of social problems including¶ environmental harm as essentially individual in both their causes and potential solution¶ (Princen Maniates and Conca 2002b: 15). Individualization means in practical terms ¶ that people often believe that small scale actions – such as planting a tree or riding a bike¶ – can make enough difference to “save the world” (Maniates 2002: 43). When we¶ individualize responsibility for environmental problems we ignore the ways that largescale¶ patterns and institutions including economic systems and the nature and exercise of¶ political power affect individual consumption patterns (Maniates 2002: 45). We think that¶ the decision about for example whether or not to drive to work alone reflects only¶ private factors such as personal preferences family lifestyle and economic¶ circumstances. Further analysis however quickly reveals that such decisions are also¶ heavily influenced by structural factors such as the availability of public transportation ¶ the safety and accessibility of pedestrian and bicycle routes and the location of¶ businesses and other public and private facilities.¶ The failure to take seriously the larger social forces that shape purchasers’ decisions¶ often leads to wrong diagnoses of causes and ineffective efforts at solutions. We may¶ think that educating people about the consequences of a particular action is all that is¶ necessary to achieve lasting change. This is wrong for at least two reasons. First ¶ individual behavior is heavily shaped by social and institutional factors including ease of¶ access peer support and pressure and the presence of good examples. Individual factors¶ such as the amount of information or education that a person receives or even personal¶ values and convictions do not by themselves motivate changed behavior (McKenzie-¶ Mohr and Smith 1999). When we individualize responsibility in other words we¶ misunderstand what motivates facilitates and sometimes obstructs practices.¶ Further and perhaps more important even when individual behavior does change the¶ scale is not adequate to address the major environmental (or social or economic)¶ problems that we face. Thus in addition to changed individual behaviors such as using¶ public transportation or eating locally environmental and social problems require¶ changes in regional and national policies and institutions. Such changes might include¶ increased miles per gallon standards for cars greater funding for public transportation ¶ and an end to the perverse subsidies that encourage environmentally damaging¶ agricultural production among many others. This is not to say that individual behavioral¶ changes are not necessary and important – they are as we will discuss at more length¶ later in this chapter. However we cannot make our personal practices matter unless we¶ understand them in larger contexts.¶ Like distancing individualization is a problem not only in relation to the environmental¶ impacts of consumption but also for sustainability more broadly. There are no purely¶ individual solutions to social problems such as racial and gender inequality or¶ homelessness nor to economic problems including the banking housing and¶ employment crises that appeared in 2008. While individual practices can contribute to¶ these problems or to their solutions individuals as individuals can neither cause them nor¶ end them. This is true for all the social economic and environmental dimensions of¶ sustainability which is a collective goal that can be achieved only by collective efforts.¶ Such efforts must include large-scale changes in public policy infrastructure land use ¶ and economic institutions among other factors. If we think about these problems as¶ distant from us or as merely personal issues we fail to understand their causes and¶ potential solutions.¶ While we should not think about individual actions in isolation individual and personal¶ practices are important and necessary in order to support institutional changes in the¶ marketplace in community and civic organizations and in government from local to¶ national levels. They can also be valuable in a host of other perhaps less tangible ways ¶ including setting examples showing possibilities and creating community. Again ¶ seeking sustainability is always a multi-faceted and challenging task. It involves thinking¶ about environmental social and economic issues. It requires thinking about different¶ geographic scales from the local to the global. It entails thinking about individual¶ actions as well as their systemic and structural contexts. Perhaps most of all ¶ understanding and seeking sustainability demands that we think about the relations¶ among these various dimensions scales and levels. </source> [/INST] <claim>Purely individual focuses can’t solve larger consumptive practices </claim> <psg>individualization refers to the tendency to think of environmental harm as essentially individual in their causes and potential solution Individualization means people often believe that small scale actions make enough difference to “save the world” When we individualize responsibility for environmental problems we ignore the ways that largescale patterns and institutions including economic systems and political power affect individual consumption patterns decisions are heavily influenced by structural factors The failure to take seriously larger social forces that shape purchasers’ decisions often leads to wrong diagnoses of causes and ineffective efforts at solutions think that educating people about the consequences is all that is necessary to achieve change. This is wrong individual behavior is heavily shaped by social and institutional factors Individual factors such as personal values and convictions do not by themselves motivate changed behavior When we individualize responsibility we misunderstand what motivates facilitates and obstructs practices even when individual behavior does change the scale is not adequate to address the major environmental problems that we face in addition to changed individual behaviors environmental and social problems require changes in regional and national policies and institutions. This is not to say that individual behavioral changes are not necessary and important we cannot make our personal practices matter unless we understand them in larger contexts individualization is a problem for sustainability There are no purely individual solutions to social problems nor to economic problems While individual practices can contribute to these problems or to their solutions individuals as individuals can neither cause them nor end them. This is true for all dimensions of sustainability which is a collective goal that can be achieved only by collective efforts efforts must include large-scale changes in public policy infrastructure land use and economic institutions among other factors. If we think about these problems as distant from us or as merely personal issues we fail to understand their causes and potential solutions individual and personal practices are important to support institutional changes seeking sustainability is always multi-faceted and challenging It requires thinking about different geographic scales from the local to the global. It entails thinking about individual actions as well as their systemic and structural contexts understanding and seeking sustainability demands that we think about the relations among these various dimensions scales and levels.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Why is green growth important? It is becoming widely recognized that a major global green transition will be needed to preserve long‐term growth in the global economy while at the same time protecting the climate and the natural resources that are the foundation of future growth. If the progress in peoples’ living stan-­‐ dards is to be continued we need to find new ways of producing and consuming. Continuing ‘business as usual’ is unsustainable and is imposing constraints on economic growth and future development (McKinsey 2011. OECD 2011). On average we are consuming more than the earth can regenerate from materials. In 2007 the World’s population was consuming 1.5 Earths to support its consumption. We are thus gradually depleting our finite stock of natural capital (GFN 2010. US EPA 2009. McKinsey 2009). The population of the World is predicted to reach 9 billion people in 2050. There are high economic growth rates in many parts of the World’s most populated areas leading to a growing middle class that will put an even higher and increasing pressure on natural resources. Over the last 10 years the prices on energy metals and agricultural products have more than dou-­‐ bled and for some metals there has been a quadrupling in prices and prices have become increas-­‐ ingly volatile cf. illustration 1. It is not given how prices on natural resources will develop in the long run. It is also difficult to fore-­‐ see how prices will develop over the coming years but the growth in demand for natural resources is likely to continue since the economic growth in Asia South America and Africa in particular is predicted to continue. This will put an upward pressure on prices as well as making them more volatile. Companies which are able to respond to this challenge and which may offer solutions which mitigate the effects of the increasing resource scarcity will probably be better off than those who will continue with business as usual. This global ‘green transition’ presents an enormous economic opportunity as new product markets and new ways of doing business emerge. Markets for low carbon technologies will be worth at least US$ 500 billion by 2050 if the world acts on the scale required (US EPA 2009. WWF 2010). The global challenges of growth resource scarcity environmental and climate change become the key strategic drivers for business in the coming decade (WBCSD 2010). This requires an increased focus on greener innovation using fewer resources and creating less waste and pollution. Sustainable business innovations are already being developed and deployed across many sectors in response to the current and expected transformation of markets and societies. The global climate and environmental challenges are changing the agenda for businesses and policy makers who are shifting their thinking of climate change and resource constraints as environmental problems to seeing them as economic potentials and opportunities (WBCSD 2010). More and more companies are acknowledging that greater resource productivity ecoefficiency and providing new greener products and services can give them a competitive advantage in the market. </source> [/INST] <claim>A green transition is possible and crucial for sustainable growth </claim> <psg>a major global green transition will be needed to preserve long‐term growth in the global economy while protecting the climate and natural resources we need to find new ways of producing and consuming ‘business as usual’ is unsustainable and imposing constraints on growth and development we are consuming more than the earth can regenerate thus depleting our finite stock of natural capital high economic growth rates in populated areas lead to a growing middle class that put an even higher pressure on natural resources growth in demand for natural resources is likely to continue This will put an upward pressure on prices as well as making them more volatile global ‘green transition’ presents an enormous economic opportunity as new product markets emerge global challenges of growth resource scarcity environmental and climate change become the key strategic drivers for business in the coming decade This requires focus on greener innovation More and more companies are acknowledging that greater resource productivity ecoefficiency and providing new greener products and services can give them a competitive advantage</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> ¶ JERUSALEM — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry extended his trip to Israel a day amid speculation that he was closing in on a deal to revive the dormant Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.¶ ¶ Reports in the Israeli news media have suggested that a meeting between Israeli and Palestinian officials under American and Jordanian auspices might be announced soon. There has been no comment from U.S. officials however.¶ ¶ Kerry’s decision to rip up his itinerary and stay in Israel has heightened expectations of a potential breakthrough.¶ ¶ After canceling a Saturday news conference in Jordan and a planned trip later that day to the United Arab Emirates Kerry flew by helicopter to Amman Jordan for a two-hour meeting with Mahmoud Abbas the president of the Palestinian Authority and his senior advisers including the Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat.¶ ¶ Asked whether he was making progress as the meeting got under way Kerry replied “working hard.”¶ ¶ Kerry then headed back to Israel for an evening meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel his third such meeting in three days. Tzipi Livni Israel’s minister of justice and the government’s chief negotiator on the Palestinian issue and Isaac Molho Netanyahu’s special envoy were to attend the meeting as well according to a State Department official.¶ ¶ Kerry is scheduled to fly Sunday to Brunei for a meeting of foreign ministers and his departure has become an unofficial deadline for showing results.¶ ¶ Kerry has frequently said that time is the enemy arguing that attitudes harden over time and that unexpected developments can complicate painstaking efforts to lay the basis for progress at the negotiating table.¶ ¶ “Time is the enemy of a peace process ” he said Wednesday during a visit to Kuwait. “The passage of time allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen.”¶ ¶ On Friday night Kerry had a Sabbath dinner with Shimon Peres the Israeli president who won the Nobel Prize in 1994 for his efforts in producing the Oslo Accord and who has been a vocal and enthusiastic supporter of Kerry’s push to revive the </source> [/INST] <claim>A. Kerry is making substantial progress in the Israeli-Palestine peace talks—he is devoting all of his time and effort to closing the deal</claim> <psg>U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry extended his trip to Israel a day amid speculation that he was closing in on a deal to revive the dormant Israeli-Palestinian peace talks a meeting between Israeli and Palestinian officials under American and Jordanian auspices might be announced soon Kerry’s decision to rip up his itinerary and stay in Israel has heightened expectations of a potential breakthrough Kerry flew for a two-hour meeting with Mahmoud Abbas the president of the Palestinian Authority Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat.¶ ¶ Asked whether he was making progress as the meeting got under way Kerry replied “working hard.” Kerry headed back to Israel for an evening meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel his third such meeting in three days Kerry is scheduled to fly Sunday to Brunei for a meeting of foreign ministers his departure has become an unofficial deadline for showing results Kerry has frequently said that time is the enemy arguing that attitudes harden over time and that unexpected developments can complicate painstaking efforts to lay the basis for progress at the negotiating table “Time is the enemy of a peace process ” he said “The passage of time allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen.”</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Israel has had to live with what I shall call conventional terrorism since the early years of the Zionist enterprise in Palestine in the 1920s. Terrible as it has been this kind of terrorism in no way threatens Israeli national security as distinct from the personal security of the Israeli victims. Despite the carnage of the fundamentalist suicide bombings of 1994-1996 the odds of any individual Israeli becoming the victim of terrorism--as opposed say to dying in Arab-Israeli wars or even in traffic accidents--have been minute. This is not to minimize the horrors of terrorism but rather to place them in perspective. But in any case the crucial point is that the establishment of a Palestinian state would greatly reduce the incentive for continued terrorism most of which has been intended to force Israel out of the occupied territories. To be sure the purpose of the fundamentalist terrorism since 1993 goes beyond that for it has been designed to destroy the peace process and ultimately Israel itself. Faced with that kind of murderous fanaticism Israel and its new-found allies in the PLO have no choice but to crush it. Following the suicide bombings of March 1996 the Palestinian Authority decided to closely cooperate with Israeli security forces to end the terrorism. The absence of any suicide bombings in the next year--until the Arafat-Netanyahu break in March 1997 following the Israeli government's decision to build new Jewish housing in East Jerusalem--demonstrates the crucial importance of such joint efforts. A breakdown of the peace process is likely both to increase the support for the fundamentalists within overall Palestinian opinion and diminish the incentives of the Palestinian Authority to control them. </source> [/INST] <claim>D. Failure of the Peace Process causes terrorism</claim> <psg>Israel has had to live with terrorism since the 1920s. the establishment of a Palestinian state would greatly reduce the incentive for continued terrorism most of which has been intended to force Israel out of the occupied territories the purpose of terrorism has been designed to destroy the peace process and ultimately Israel itself A breakdown of the peace process is likely both to increase the support for the fundamentalists within overall Palestinian opinion and diminish the incentives of the Palestinian Authority to control them</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Although terrorism throughout human history has been tragic until relatively recently it has been more of an irritant than any major hazard. However the existence of weapons of mass destruction now renders terrorism a potential threat to the very existence of human life (Hoge & Rose 2001). Such potential global destruction or globicide as one might call it supersedes even that of genocide in its lethality. Although religious factors are not the only determinant of ‘suicide’ bombers the revival of religious fundamentalism towards the end of the 20th century renders the phenomenon a major global threat. Even though religion can be a force for good it can equally be abused as a force for evil. Ultimately the parallel traits in human nature of good and evil may perhaps be the most durable of all the characteristics of the human species. There is no need to apply a psychiatric analysis to the ‘suicide’ bomber because the phenomenon can be explained in political terms. Most participants in terrorism are not usually mentally disordered and their behaviour can be construed more in terms of group dynamics (Colvard 2002). On the other hand perhaps psychiatric terminology is as yet deficient in not having the depth to encompass the emotions and behaviour of groups of people whose levels of hate low self-esteem humiliation and alienation are such that it is felt that they can be remedied by the mass destruction of life including their own. </source> [/INST] <claim>E. Unchecked terrorism means extinction</claim> <psg>the existence of weapons of mass destruction now renders terrorism a potential threat to the very existence of human life Such potential global destruction or globicide supersedes even that of genocide in its lethality the revival of religious fundamentalism towards the end of the 20th century renders the phenomenon a major global threat psychiatric terminology is as yet deficient in not having the depth to encompass the emotions and behaviour of groups of people whose levels of hate low self-esteem humiliation and alienation are such that it is felt that they can be remedied by the mass destruction of life</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Although the president has been reluctant to invest political diplomatic capital in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking Kerry is pushing for a new US-backed initiative and Americans officials say that he has been promised limited presidential backing. 'The Palestian issue is a second-term presidential issue ' Zakheim said. 'Quite frankly you have a president who doesn't have to run for office again and an Israeli prime minister who is not as strong as he was before. That gives the president a lot of leverage. If Obama does succumb to the temptation of a second-term president the constellation of forces is quite good.' </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry is making substantial progress in the peace process now—he’s currently in Israel negotiating the deal and a breakthrough is close—that’s Gordon. Prefer our evidence because it’s the most recent—it’s only a few days old.</claim> <psg>Although the president has been reluctant to invest diplomatic capital in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking Kerry is pushing for a new US-backed initiative and Americans officials say that he has been promised presidential backing. 'The Palestian issue is a second-term presidential issue ' Zakheim said you have a president who doesn't have to run for office again and an Israeli prime minister who is not as strong as he was before. That gives the president a lot of leverage. the constellation of forces is quite good.'</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said some progress toward reviving Middle East peace talks needs to be made “long before September ” when the next session of the United Nations General Assembly will begin.? While Kerry said he will set no deadlines for kick-starting a new round of negotiations he warned yesterday at an appearance with his Kuwaiti counterpart that time “allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen ” and unforeseen dangers can arise.? Kerry was greeted by such a development yesterday when Israel approved plans for 69 new housing units in a section ofJerusalem that Israel captured from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East War and Palestinians consider occupied territory. A municipal building committee approved the permits city spokeswoman Brachie Sprung said by telephone.? Israel continues to build in settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem which the U.S. State Department has called “unproductive.” The latest move to add housing is unhelpful as the U.S. urges all parties to help create a climate for peace a department official said yesterday speaking on condition of anonymity in advance of Kerry’s meetings.? The Palestinians have refused to return to talks without a freeze in settlement construction and they have signaled they might resume their quest at the UN to join the International Criminal Court.? ‘Something Important’? Now Kerry is in Amman Jordan for three days of consultations with Israeli and Palestinian leaders aimed at bringing them to the table for the first time in almost three years.? Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said in an interview with Al Jazeera television yesterday that he hopes Kerry brings “something important” and new that will help narrow the gaps with Israel and lead to fresh talks. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu said this week that he’ll engage in peace negotiations if Palestinians indicate they’re willing to address all substantial issues and resolve the conflict.? Netanyahu is willing to withdraw from more than 90 percent of the West Bank if his security concerns are met Ha’aretz newspaper said today citing an unidentified Israeli minister. The prime minister has said any Palestinian state must be demilitarized and Israel needs to maintain a security presence on the border between the West Bank and Jordan.? “Peace is based on security ” Netanyahu said today at a ceremony in Jerusalem. “It is not based on goodwill and legitimacy ” he said in remarks broadcast on Army Radio.? UN Status? Progress is urgent “because time is the enemy of a peace process ” Kerry said yesterday in Kuwait City alongside Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah. The passage of time Kerry said “has the ability to wear out people’s patience and to feed cynicism and to give people a sense of impossibility where there in fact is possibility.”? The timing of the UN General Assembly in September is significant because last year it recognized the Palestinians as an “observer state ” and they have threatened to use UN organizations such as the ICC to level war-crimes charges against Israel.? Kerry has thrown himself into reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations making his fifth trip to Israel since he became the top U.S. diplomat in February. He’s pushing for renewed talks even amid a crush of competing demands in the Middle East including Syria’s civil war violence in Iraq and Libya tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and worries about the stability of Egypt and Jordan.? Raising Stakes? Kerry has repeatedly said that time is running out to reach a two-state solution that would ensure security for Israel and an independent Palestine. The Palestinians want to establish a state in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem as well as the Gaza Strip currently ruled by Palestinian militant group Hamas.? “If we do not succeed now and I know I’m raising the stakes we may not get another chance ” Kerry said on June 3 to the American Jewish Committee a Washington advocacy group.? Israelis and Palestinians have shown no signs of being any closer to resuming talks with each side blaming the other for the impasse and the Palestinian leadership has been in disarray. Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah submitted his resignation June 20 two weeks after taking office.? No ‘Ownership’? An agreement with the Palestinians is possible and Israel should do more to strengthen them as peace partners outgoing Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said today on Army Radio. Fischer steps down from the bank on June 30.? The danger of starting U.S.-brokered peace talks now is that there’s been no sense of “ownership” of the process from the Israelis and Palestinians said Aaron David Miller a former adviser to Republican and Democratic U.S. secretaries of state and now a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington.? “The real problem here is the absence of ownership ” Miller said in an interview last week. “I don’t see how Kerry can get around that.”? Kerry said he’s committed to trying because both Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have shown a “seriousness of purpose” in wanting a peace deal.? “I wouldn’t be here now if I didn’t have a belief that this is possible ” Kerry said. “But it’s difficult. If this were easy it would have been done a long time ago.”? Kerry denied an Israeli news report that he was preparing for three-way talks between U.S. Israeli and Palestinian officials this week under the auspices of Jordan’s King Abdullah. He plans to meet separately with Abbas in Amman and with Netanyahu in Jerusalem.? </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry Warns Time Is Short to Revive Mideast Peace Talks</claim> <psg>John Kerry said some progress toward reviving Middle East peace talks needs to be made “long before September ” when the next session of the United Nations General Assembly will begin. While Kerry said he will set no deadlines for kick-starting a new round of negotiations he warned yesterday at an appearance with his Kuwaiti counterpart that time “allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen ” and unforeseen dangers can arise.? Progress is urgent “because time is the enemy of a peace process ” Kerry said yesterday in Kuwait City alongside Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah. The passage of time Kerry said “has the ability to wear out people’s patience and to feed cynicism and to give people a sense of impossibility where there in fact is possibility.”? The timing of the UN General Assembly in September is significant because last year it recognized the Palestinians as an “observer state ” and they have threatened to use UN organizations such as the ICC to level war-crimes charges against Israel.? Kerry has thrown himself into reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations making his fifth trip to Israel since he became the top U.S. diplomat in February. He’s pushing for renewed talks even amid a crush of competing demands in the Middle East including Syria’s civil war violence in Iraq and Libya tensions over Iran’s nuclear program and worries about the stability of Egypt and Jordan Kerry has repeatedly said that time is running out to reach a two-state solution that would ensure security for Israel and an independent Palestine. “If we do not succeed now and I know I’m raising the stakes we may not get another chance ” Kerry said on June 3 to the American Jewish Committee a Washington advocacy group.? An agreement with the Palestinians is possible and Israel should do more to strengthen them as peace partners outgoing Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said today on Army Radio. Fischer steps down from the bank on June 30.? The danger of starting U.S.-brokered peace talks now is that there’s been no sense of “ownership” of the process from the Israelis and Palestinians said Aaron David Miller a former adviser to Republican and Democratic U.S. secretaries of state and now a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington.? </psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Yet Mr. Kerry dedicated himself this week to spending the next couple of months focusing intensively on . . . the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process ” which not only has proved resistant to the diplomacy of President Obama and numberless previous secretaries of state but also is not for now the source of any of the fires raging across the region. What gives? Mr. Kerry seems to have a number of reasons for investing scarce time and diplomatic capital in this perpetually failing venture. Some are unpersuasive: He says “time is running out” for a two-state solution but diplomats and regional experts have been delivering that warning for at least 25 years. One is personal: A veteran of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Mr. Kerry has developed a passion for the issue and seems to believe he can avoid the mistakes made by Mr. Obama whose attempt to force a settlement freeze on Israel led to a rancorous three-way impasse between him Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry is committed to investing diplomatic capital in the peace process </claim> <psg>Kerry dedicated himself this week to spending the next couple of months focusing intensively on the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process ” Kerry seems to have a number of reasons for investing scarce time and diplomatic capital in this venture. A veteran of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Mr. Kerry has developed a passion for the issue and seems to believe he can avoid the mistakes made by Mr. Obama</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> In many ways the new Secretary of State has an even more immense task than his immediate predecessor Ms. Clinton. Ms. Clinton’s objectives were defined clearly in President Obama’s first term: she had to revitalise America’s image on the world stage repair broken alliances and give credence to America’s “soft power.” Now that Ms. Clinton has significantly improved America’s diplomatic capital it is up to John Kerry to use that capital and influence the global order. </source> [/INST] <claim>Diplomatic capital is high—Clinton repaired the US image on the world stage</claim> <psg>the new Secretary of State has an even more immense task than his immediate predecessor Ms. Clinton. Clinton’s objectives were defined clearly in Obama’s first term: she had to revitalise America’s image on the world stage repair broken alliances and give credence to America’s “soft power.” Now that Ms. Clinton has significantly improved America’s diplomatic capital it is up to Kerry to use that capital and influence the global order.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> HAVANA Cuba — At the last Summit of the Americas held in Colombia in April Washington’s rivals in Latin America and its political allies had the same piece of advice for better US diplomacy in the region: get over your Cuba fixation. Now with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) likely to be confirmed as the next secretary of state the United States will have a top diplomat who has been a frequent critic of America’s 50-year-old effort to force regime change in Havana. In recent years Kerry has been the Senate’s most prominent skeptic of US-funded pro-democracy efforts that give financial backing to dissident groups in Cuba and beam anti-Castro programming to the island through radio and television programs based in Miami. Kerry has also favored lifting curbs on US travel to the island and opening up American tourism to the only country in the world the US government restricts its own citizens from visiting. For the rest of Latin America where leaders say they're eager for Washington to modernize its view of the region and engage in new ways Cuba remains “a litmus test” for the Obama presidency according to Julia Sweig director of Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The strategic benefits of getting Cuba right would reverberate throughout the Americas ” said Sweig calling Kerry “ideally suited to the task.” “Kerry's instincts and experience in Latin America are to see past lingering and often toxic ideology in the US Congress and bureaucracy in favor of pragmatism and problem solving ” she said. Regardless of Kerry’s record on Cuba policy in the Senate analysts say he will face several obstacles to major change not least of which will be the man likely to replace him as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations Sen. Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey) a Cuban American. If Menendez becomes chairman then the committee responsible for shaping US foreign policy in the upper house will be led by a hardliner who wants to ratchet up — not dial back — the US squeeze on Havana. So while Kerry may have some latitude to adjust Cuba policy from inside the White House Latin America experts don’t expect sweeping change — like an end to the Cuba Embargo — which requires Congressional action. “On Latin America in general I think Kerry has a longer and broader vision ” said Robert Pastor professor of international relations at American University. But when it comes to Cuba he cautioned “Kerry is also a political realist.” “Changing US policy is not a high priority for him but not changing US policy is the only priority for Bob Menendez ” Pastor said. In 2011 Kerry delayed the release of nearly $20 million in federal funds for pro-democracy Cuba projects run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID) questioning their effectiveness and insisting on greater oversight. “There is no evidence that the ‘democracy promotion’ programs which have cost the US taxpayer more than $150 million so far are helping the Cuban people ” Kerry said at the time. “Nor have they achieved much more than provoking the Cuban government to arrest a US government contractor.” The US government contractor is Alan Gross jailed on the island since December 2009. Cuban authorities arrested Gross while he worked on a USAID project to set up satellite communications gear that would allow members of Cuba’s Jewish community to connect to the internet without going through government servers. Cuba sentenced him to 15 years in prison but now says its willing to work out a prisoner swap for the “Cuban Five ” a group of intelligence agents who have been serving time in a US federal prison. The Obama administration has refused to negotiate calling on Havana to release Gross unconditionally and even US lawmakers who advocate greater engagement with Cuba say no change will be possible as long as he’s in jail. The Castro government insists it’s not willing to give up Gross for nothing. Carlos Alzugaray a former Cuban diplomat and scholar of US-Cuba relations at the University of Havana said a resolution to the Gross case and other significant changes in US policy would “require a big investment of political capital” by Kerry and Obama. </source> [/INST] <claim>Changing Cuba policy would sap Kerry’s capital</claim> <psg>with Kerry as the next secretary of state the U S will have a top diplomat who has been a frequent critic of America’s 50-year-old effort to force regime change in Havana. Kerry has favored lifting curbs on US travel to the island getting Cuba right would reverberate said Sweig calling Kerry “ideally suited to the task.” Regardless of Kerry’s record on Cuba policy in the Senate analysts say he will face several obstacles to major change not least of which will be Menendez while Kerry may have some latitude to adjust Cuba policy experts don’t expect sweeping change — like an end to the Cuba Embargo when it comes to Cuba Kerry is a political realist.” “Changing US policy is not a high priority for him Alzugaray a former Cuban diplomat and scholar of US-Cuba relations said a resolution to the Gross case and other significant changes in US policy would “require a big investment of political capital” by Kerry</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Admittedly Kerry has not always applied these lessons properly -- witness his regrettable support for the Bush administration's disastrous invasion of Iraq. But elsewhere as in his efforts to ease the archaic U.S. blockade on Cuba Kerry continues to promote engagement as the fundamental tool of foreign policy. In a 2009 Tampa Bay Times op-ed for example Kerry relates how the success of the U.S. rapprochement with Vietnam helped shape his advocacy for improved relations with Cuba which he presented as a defense of U.S. interests and democratic values. 'For 47 years ' he wrote 'our embargo in the name of democracy has produced no democracy at all. Too often our rhetoric and policies have actually furnished the Castro regime with an all-purpose excuse to draw attention away from its many shortcomings.' This evidence has informed the future secretary of state's position against the ban on travel to Cuba for U.S. citizens. Based on the experience of tourists from other countries and the return of Cuban-Americans who 'have already had a significant impact on increasing the flow of information and hard currency to ordinary Cubans ' Kerry understands that unrestricted U.S. travel to Cuba would be 'a catalyst for change.' The senator also placed a temporary freeze in 2010 on the poorly designed USAID Cuba programs which have led to the imprisonment of Alan Gross an agency subcontractor. According to an article by R.M. Schneiderman in Foreign Affairs the revision of the Bush administration-designed USAID programs advanced the possibility of Alan Gross's release as a Cuban humanitarian act. Senator Kerry participated in a effort to negotiate a diplomatic solution. With State Department's approval Kerry met Bruno Rodriguez Cuba's ministry of foreign affairs at the residence of the Cuban Ambassador to the United Nations in New York. Unfortunately Senator Robert Menendez a Cuban-American stepped in and spoiled the possibility of a negotiated solution. The senator from New Jersey demanded that the full 20 million dollars be spent and the provocative programs be restored. Under the pressure of a delicate balance of forces in the Senate The White House conceded. Schneiderman quoted Fulton Armstrong a member of Senator Kerry's staff who was involved in the dialogue with Cuban diplomats. 'Poor Alan Gross -- Armstrong wrote -- the Cuban-American lobby had won.' Kerry who has visited Vietnam post-reconciliation knows that a USAID program there helped to multiply Internet connectivity rates in the country. The USAID program in Vietnam is jointly implemented with the Japanese development agency and with the support of the local government unlike the Helms-Burton law which geared USAID programs in Cuba toward regime change and was repudiated in the UN for its unilateralism. The USAID program in Vietnam encourages development which is what USAID was created for not efforts to overthrow Hanoi's government. The premise is that a population more affluent better educated and more connected will demand more democratic practices. According to Kerry the United States will never stop supporting human rights in Cuba simply because they are fundamental values of American society. After all the United States has continued pushing for civil and political liberties in Vietnam since ending its embargo. Washington does so not because it opposes Hanoi's leaders or to impose a regime change but as part of a rational strategy of promoting a peaceful evolution to a more open Vietnamese political system. Washington wants stable relationships with the whole Vietnamese nation not only with the government. Peoples of the world no matter how suspicious of U.S. motives they may be appreciate human rights promotion within the framework of international law. President Obama's designation of John Kerry is also consistent with the political changes that have occurred in the Cuban-American community expressed by the elevated Cuban diaspora vote for Democrats in the last election. Like Kerry and as then-Senate candidate Obama stated in 2004 most Cuban-Americans believe that the embargo has failed and that it is time to influence the processes of economic reform and political liberalization that began in Cuba after the retirement of Fidel Castro. Once public opinion turned against the war in Vietnam the political leadership in the U.S. found it had no choice but to follow suit. Kerry is better positioned than anyone to be a leader and see that point of departure when it comes to U.S. policy and Cuba. </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry will get involved in the plan—he’s the best candidate to repair Cuba relations</claim> <psg>in his efforts to ease the .S. blockade on Cuba Kerry continues to promote engagement as the fundamental tool of foreign policy. the revision of the Bush administration-designed USAID programs advanced the possibility of Alan Gross's release as a Cuban humanitarian act. Senator Kerry participated in a effort to negotiate a diplomatic solution. Obama's designation of John Kerry is also consistent with the political changes that have occurred in the Cuban-American community Like Kerry Cuban-Americans believe that the embargo has failed Once public opinion turned against the war in Vietnam the political leadership in the U.S. found it had no choice but to follow suit. Kerry is better positioned than anyone to be a leader and see that point of departure when it comes to U.S. policy and Cuba.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The Washington Post writes a tough editorial about President-elect Obama’s Latin America agenda. While President Bush faced many democratic-leaning countries when he entered office Obama faces more anti-American-leaning ones and not just Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The editorial also says Mexico may be Obama’s more pressing Latin American issue. Mexican President Felix Calderon’s war against drug cartels “threaten to destroy Mexico’s relatively fragile institutions. “By the president’s own account some 6 000 persons were killed in drug-related violence during 2008 a level of bloodshed exceeding that of Iraq. The Bush administration initiated a $1.4 billion aid program to help Mexican security forces and Congress has appropriated the first $400 million. But little has been done to stop the massive flow of weapons — not just guns but grenade launchers night vision equipment and high explosives — from the United States.” In April President Obama will attend a summit of the Americas as good as any opportunity to address those issues the Post editorial says. Unlike Bush the new president “has an objective and urgent interest in investing some of his diplomatic capital in Latin America.” </source> [/INST] <claim>Engaging with Mexico requires diplomatic capital</claim> <psg>While Bush faced democratic-leaning countries Obama faces more anti-American-leaning ones and not just Venezuela Mexico may be Obama’s pressing Latin American issue drug cartels “threaten to destroy Mexico’s fragile institutions. the president “has an interest in investing his diplomatic capital in Latin America.”</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> On June 5 Secretary of State John Kerry raised eyebrows when he met with his Venezuelan counterpart Foreign Minister Elías Jaua. Both were in Guatemala to attend the recent General Assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS). The pair’s meeting was the first high-level public meeting between the two countries since U.S. president Barack Obama and former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez shook hands and had a brief exchange at the fifth Summit of the Americas in 2009. The Venezuelan government requested the meeting which lasted 40 minutes and was followed by the announcement that the governments would embark on high-level talks aimed at improving bilateral relations. Of particular note both sides expressed hope that the reciprocal appointment of ambassadors would take place in short order. Chávez expelled the U.S. ambassador in 2008 and the United States retaliated in kind. All of this is complicated by the outcome of the Venezuelan presidential election on April 14. The official results have named Nicolás Maduro the winner having beaten opposition leader Henrique Capriles by a slim 1.5 percentage points—though the opposition continues to contest both the results and the audit. While much of the region moved quickly to recognize Maduro as the victor the United States has yet to formally recognize the outcome and is waiting for the results of an audit that is satisfactory to all parties. So given these developments should the United States be resetting its relationship with Venezuela? Q1: Where do U.S.-Venezuelan relations stand? A1: Despite many fits and starts to advance relations in recent years genuine improvements in the relationship have been hard to come by. Various U.S. government agencies hold sanctions against elements of the Venezuelan government including on state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) for trading with Iran. on a former Iran-Venezuela Bank (IVB) for handling money transfers with a Chinese bank on behalf of the Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI). and on the state-owned Venezuelan Military Industry Company after it traded with Iran North Korea and Syria. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) over the past five years has also designated more than half a dozen Venezuelan government officials for acting for or on behalf of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) designated a narco-terrorist organization by the U.S. agency. And let’s not forget that the reason there are no ambassadors in Caracas or D.C. was Chávez’s refusal in 2010 to accept Obama’s nominee for the post in Venezuela. Similarly Venezuela severed ties with the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2005. On the day Chávez’s death was announced Maduro as caretaker expelled two U.S. air force attachés based in the Caracas embassy accusing them of espionage. The United States retaliated in kind. The Maduro government also arrested U.S. filmmaker Tim Tracy for allegedly instigating postelection violence though many pointed out he was simply in Venezuela to film a documentary on politics in the country. (Tracy was released without further explanation the same morning Kerry and Jaua met.) Suggestions by members of the Venezuelan government that the United States may have given Chávez the cancer that caused his death have certainly not helped relations either neither have repeated accusations targeted at former officials and U.S. military and intelligence involvement in countless evidence-free plots. Given the complex reality of the bilateral relationship it looks like both sides have a long road ahead of them if they seek to enact positive changes. </source> [/INST] <claim>Restoring ties with Venezuela will require significant time and effort by Kerry</claim> <psg>Kerry raised eyebrows when he met with his Venezuelan counterpart Foreign Minister Elías Jaua. both sides expressed hope that the reciprocal appointment of ambassadors would take place in short order Despite many fits and starts to advance relations in recent years genuine improvements in the relationship have been hard to come by. Various U.S. government agencies hold sanctions against elements of the Venezuelan government And let’s not forget that the reason there are no ambassadors in Caracas or D.C. was Chávez’s refusal in 2010 to accept Obama’s nominee for the post in Venezuela. Similarly Venezuela severed ties with the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2005. On the day Chávez’s death was announced Maduro as caretaker expelled two U.S. air force attachés based in the Caracas embassy accusing them of espionage. The United States retaliated in kind. Suggestions by members of the Venezuelan government that the United States may have given Chávez the cancer that caused his death have certainly not helped relations either neither have repeated accusations targeted at former officials and U.S. military and intelligence involvement in countless evidence-free plots. Given the complex reality of the bilateral relationship it looks like both sides have a long road ahead of them if they seek to enact positive changes.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> But beyond early assessments of whether Mr Kerry is up to the job we must acknowledge that success as secretary of state depends increasingly these days on the ability of a skilled manager to do more with less. This president’s stated policy goals focus overwhelmingly on the domestic side and when boasting of his first-term foreign policy achievements Barack Obama speaks mainly of bringing soldiers home reducing the leverage of US diplomats at international bargaining tables.¶ As for this first trip it’s no surprise that Mr Kerry begins his work in Europe and the Middle East the two regions he knows best. Friendships in London Berlin Paris Rome Ankara Cairo Riyadh Abu Dhabi and Doha will serve him well. His challenge in Europe will be to keep the US involved in the process of eurozone reform without offering much direct material help and to create momentum behind a transatlantic trade pact that will take years to negotiate.¶ In the Middle East the first step will be to try to stop the carnage in Syria and help prepare the ground for a capable new government. He scored an early apparent success by helping persuade opposition leaders to join talks on Syria’s future. Yet Mr Kerry knows well that here as in other Middle East hotspots Saudi Arabia Turkey and Iran will have significant say in how a post-Assad Syria develops in coming years. Particularly given the “pivot” of more US resources and attention to Asia America’s direct involvement will be more limited than in the past and every government in the Middle East knows it. </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry’s diplomatic capital is finite especially in the context of new Middle East policies</claim> <psg>success as secretary of state depends on the ability of a skilled manager to do more with less. This president’s goals focus on the domestic side Obama speaks of bringing soldiers home reducing the leverage of US diplomats at international bargaining tables Kerry begins his work in the Middle East In the Middle East He scored an early apparent success Yet Kerry knows that in Middle East hotspots America’s direct involvement will be more limited than in the past and every government in the Middle East knows it</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> He is expected to push for more aggressive direct U.S. involvement on the interconnected challenges of Iran’s nuclear program upheavals in Syria Egypt and other Arab Spring countries and dim prospects for an Arab-Israeli peace.¶ If confirmed Kerry would take over a department stretched by short budgets and rising security costs overseas and a diplomatic corps still reeling from the death of Christopher Stevens U.S. ambassador to Libya during the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi.¶ A former top State Department official said that “good internal management of the department” could be a challenge for Kerry. “It’s very different running a Senate staff and running a big agency ” he said. “Senators have unique challenges but they’re used to a world that revolves around them and they have a staff not a team.” </source> [/INST] <claim>The State Department is stretched thin – other policies trade off with engaging Iran.</claim> <psg>He is expected to push for more U.S. involvement on Iran’s nuclear program Kerry would take over a department stretched by short budgets and rising security costs overseas and a diplomatic corps still reeling from the death of Stevens A former top official said that “good internal management could be a challenge It’s very different running a big agency</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> In theory Kerry is in a good position to introduce a measure of even-handedness into dealing with the long-festering problem. He is familiar with the region having travelled there often as a member and later chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on which he served for 28 years. In 2009 as chairman of the committee he made a rare visit to Gaza. Aides say he has a personal passion for this “most vexing” of conflicts. Perhaps as importantly Kerry is said to want to go down in history as one of America’s great secretaries of state. Helping settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would earn him a place in the pantheon of diplomacy and trump the achievements of many of his predecessors including Hillary Clinton. She left office as the most widely traveled top diplomat in U.S. history but did not score a diplomatic triumph worthy of the history books. Unlike Clinton Kerry appears to have no presidential ambitions for 2016 hence he is less constrained by domestic politics and the heated disputes often generated by the subject of Israel and the Palestinians. </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry is the key player in the peace process—he’s the only diplomat with the skill and familiarity to solve the problem</claim> <psg>Kerry is in a good position to introduce a measure of even-handedness into dealing with the long-festering problem. He is familiar with the region having travelled there often as a member and later chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on which he served for 28 years. In 2009 as chairman of the committee he made a visit to Gaza. Aides say he has a personal passion for this “most vexing” of conflicts. as importantly Kerry is said to want to go down in history as one of America’s great secretaries of state. Helping settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would earn him a place in the pantheon of diplomacy and trump achievements of predecessors Unlike Clinton Kerry appears to have no presidential ambitions for 2016 hence he is less constrained by domestic politics and the heated disputes generated by the subject of Israel and the Palestinians.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> U.S. leadership in the Middle East has helped foster conditions for productive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority said Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in a speech in front of the council on foreign relations Wednesday. Clinton explained the main facets of American foreign policy in the Middle East and in other parts of the world. </source> [/INST] <claim>In Middle East talks US is mediator and actor</claim> <psg>U.S. leadership in the Middle East has helped foster conditions for productive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Even with a political settlement however it is unlikely that every suicidal fanatic can be indefinitely stopped so Israel will probably have to continue to live with some level of conventional terrorism. What does threaten Israeli national security is the possibility that terrorists may come into possession of nuclear chemical or biological weapons of mass destruction. This prospect is rarely publicly discussed in Israel which is understandable but futile and even dangerous: minimizing the risk of catastrophe makes it improbable that the necessary steps will be taken to reduce its likelihood.[8] Given the increasing availability of weapons of mass destruction Israel has no rational choice but to assume that it is only a matter of time before its enemies acquire them. At that point Israel's main hope of averting an unthinkable catastrophe will have to rest on deterrence--that is the threat explicit or simply existential of retaliation in kind. </source> [/INST] <claim>It’s a question of deterrence – terrorism will only stop once Palestinians have their own state</claim> <psg>it is unlikely that every suicidal fanatic can be indefinitely stopped What does threaten national security is the possibility that terrorists may come into possession of nuclear chemical or biological weapons Given the increasing availability Israel has no rational choice but to assume that it is only a matter of time before its enemies acquire them. At that point Israel's main hope of averting an unthinkable catastrophe will have to rest on deterrence</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Is a One-State Solution Possible? My absolutely unequivocal answer is: No. Anyone connected with the Jewish Israeli public knows that the desire for a state with a Jewish majority where the Jews are masters of their own fate trumps all other aims even the desire for a state in all of Eretz Israel. One can talk about one state from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River a bi-national or non-national state. in practice it means the dismantling of the State of Israel. That must be said clearly and that’s what the public — certainly the Palestinian public as well as the Jewish — quite rightly thinks it is. We want to change many things about this state its historical narrative its definition as a “Jewish and democratic” state the occupation outside and the discrimination inside. We want to create a new basis for the relationship between the state and its Arab Palestinian citizens. But it is impossible to ignore the basic ethos of the overwhelming majority of the citizens. There is an illusion that this can be changed through external pressure. Will outside pressure compel 99.9% of the Jewish public to give up the state? No nothing but a crushing military defeat will compel the Israelis to give up their state. The majority of the Palestinian people too want their own state — to realize their most basic aspirations to restore their national pride to heal their trauma. Even the leaders of Hamas with whom we have talked want it. Anyone who thinks otherwise is laboring under an illusion. There are Palestinians who talk about one state but for most it is simply a code word for the dismantling of the State of Israel. They too know that it is utopian. There are also some Palestinians who believe that the possibility of one state will frighten the Israelis into agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the result of this Machiavellian thinking is quite the opposite: It pushes the Israelis into the arms of the right and raises the specter of ethnic cleansing. </source> [/INST] <claim>The peace process is key to stop genocide</claim> <psg>Is a One-State Solution Possible? : No Anyone connected with the Jewish Israeli public knows that the desire for a state with a Jewish majority where the Jews are masters of their own fate trumps all other aims a bi-national or non-national state. in practice it means the dismantling of the State of Israel. No nothing but a crushing military defeat will compel the Israelis to give up their state. The majority of the Palestinian people too want their own state — to realize their most basic aspirations to restore their national pride . There are also some Palestinians who believe that the possibility of one state will frighten the Israelis into agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the result of this Machiavellian thinking is quite the opposite: It pushes the Israelis into the arms of the right and raises the specter of ethnic cleansing</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> When the push of a single button can produce cataclysmic effects we discover an order of destruction – “omnicide” – even larger than genocide. But the opprobrium attached to the term “Genocide” seems also to have a connotation of corporate action – as if this act or sequence of acts would be a lesser fault easier to understand if not to excuse if one person rather than a group were responsible for it. A group (we suppose) would be bound by a public moral code. decisions made would have been reached collectively. and the culpability of individual intentions would be multiplied proportionately. Admittedly corporate responsibility is sometimes invoked in order to diminish (or at least to obscure) individual responsibility. so for example the “quagmire” effect that was appealed to retrospectively by defenders of the United States’ role in Vietnam. But for genocide the likelihood of its corporate origins seems to accentuate its moral enormity: a large number of individual intentional acts would have to be committed and the connections among them also affirmed in order to produce the extensive act. Unlike other corperate acts that might only be decided on but carried out by a single person or small group of persons genocide in its scope seems necessarily to require collaboration by a relatively large number of agents acting both collectively and individually. </source> [/INST] <claim>b) Genocide outweighs omnicide</claim> <psg>the push of a button can produce omnicide But the opprobrium attached to the term “Genocide” seems to have a connotation of corporate action – as if this act would be a lesser fault if not to excuse if one person rather than a group were responsible for it for genocide its origins accentuate its moral enormity: a large number of individual intentional acts would have to be committed and the connections among them also affirmed in order to produce the extensive act genocide in its scope seems necessarily to require collaboration by a relatively large number of agents acting both collectively and individually</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> The fall of Communism not only ended the Cold War. it also ended the only universalist ideological challenge to democracy. Radical Islam may still offer an alternative to democracy in parts of the world but it appeals by definition only to Moslems and has not even won the assent of a majority of these. And Iranian President Khatami's second landslide election victory in 2001 suggests that even in the cradle of radical Islam the yearning for democracy is waxing. That Freedom House could count 120 freely elected governments by early 2001 (out of a total of 192 independent states) bespeaks a vast transformation in human governance within the span of 225 years. In 1775 the number of democracies was zero. In 1776 the birth of the United States of America brought the total up to one. Since then democracy has spread at an accelerating pace most of the growth having occurred within the twentieth century with greatest momentum since 1974. That this momentum has slackened somewhat since its pinnacle in 1989 destined to be remembered as one of the most revolutionary years in all history was inevitable. So many peoples were swept up in the democratic tide that there was certain to be some backsliding. Most countries' democratic evolution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth progression. So it must be for the world as a whole. Nonetheless the overall trend remains powerful and clear. Despite the backsliding the number and proportion of democracies stands higher today than ever before. This progress offers a source of hope for enduring nuclear peace. The danger of nuclear war was radically reduced almost overnight when Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democracy. For other ominous corners of the world we may be in a kind of race between the emergence or growth of nuclear arsenals and the advent of democratization. If this is so the greatest cause for worry may rest with the Moslem Middle East where nuclear arsenals do not yet exist but where the prospects for democracy may be still more remote. </source> [/INST] <claim>b) Democracy in Middle East prevents nuclear war</claim> <psg>Radical Islam may still offer an alternative to democracy in parts of the world but it appeals by definition only to Moslems and has not even won the assent of a majority of these danger of nuclear war was radically reduced almost overnight when Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democracy. For other ominous corners of the world we may be in a kind of race between the emergence or growth of nuclear arsenals and the advent of democratization. If this is so the greatest cause for worry may rest with the Moslem Middle East where nuclear arsenals do not yet exist but where the prospects for democracy may be still more remote.</psg></s>

<s>[INST] Construct an argument in XML format made of an argument claim (<claim>....</claim>) and selected passages from the source text (<psg>...</psg>). Use the source passage: <source> Mr Kerry’s reputation for gravitas and diplomacy suggest that he would earn international respect. Indeed he has also lived abroad. He has travelled extensively and doubtless many Foreign Ministers already know him. Thus the learning curve would not be steep and he could begin building diplomatic capital straight away. And he will need it. The foreign policy plate is full. Syria’s regime is near collapse. North Korea is launching rockets. Rebels in the Congo and terrorists in northern Mali should make Africa a top priority for the next Secretary of State. China’s power grows by the day. Dear reader our Republic has known constant war for a decade. Mr Kerry teaming up with fellow Vietnam veteran Chuck Hagel in the Defense Department could very well represent a good chance for a refined constitutional foreign policy that puts peace first. </source> [/INST] <claim>Kerry will be able to handle the diplomatic agenda now but his plate is full</claim> <psg>Kerry’s reputation for gravitas and diplomacy suggest that he would earn international respect. he has also lived abroad. He has travelled extensively and doubtless many Foreign Ministers already know him. Thus the learning curve would not be steep and he could begin building diplomatic capital straight away. And he will need it. The foreign policy plate is full. Syria’s regime is near collapse. North Korea is launching rockets. Rebels in the Congo and terrorists in northern Mali should make Africa a top priority China’s power grows by the day. Kerry could very well represent a good chance for a refined constitutional foreign policy that puts peace first.</psg></s>