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5df4f45c7f32-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 3 per cent.
Since the Bank's last interest rate announcement on 15 July, inflation pressures have continued to ease. Core inflation has declined below the 2 per cent inflation target earlier than the Bank anticipated, and it appears that lower inflation will persist over the coming months.
As expected, economic growth was interrupted in the second quarter of the year, and the pace of growth in the third quarter will likely remain below potential. This recent weakness reflects the impact of a number of near-term factors such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the effect of an isolated case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) on exports of Canadian beef and cattle, the power blackout in Ontario, and the forest fires in Western Canada.
Notwithstanding these developments, there are clear indications that conditions are in place for a strengthening of economic growth. Final domestic demand growth has remained robust and the adverse effects of the near-term factors are beginning to dissipate. The economic rebound in the United States began earlier, and will be stronger, than previously expected. As well, the tone of capital markets remains favourable. Overall, despite current weakness, the accumulation of economic evidence to date reinforces the Bank's view that growth in the Canadian economy will strengthen towards the end of 2003 and through 2004.
With today's decision, policy interest rates will support the return to levels of economic activity consistent with achieving an overall balance of aggregate demand and supply and thus keeping inflation near the target over the medium term.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 15 October 2003.
The Monetary Policy Report will be published on 22 October 2003. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2003/09/bank-canada-lowers-target-overnight-rate/ | ca | 2003-09-03T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers target for the overnight rate by 1/4 percentage point to 2 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:16+00:00 |
42580db059d3-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 1/2 per cent.
Overall, the outlook for economic growth and inflation in Canada is largely unchanged from the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
The global economic expansion remains robust. Growth in Canada in the first half of 2006 appears to have been a little stronger and the Canadian dollar has traded in a somewhat higher range than was envisaged in the April MPR. As well, there was a further shift in the composition of demand towards consumption and away from exports. Total CPI inflation has remained above the 2 per cent target, mainly because of increases in consumer energy prices, while core inflation moved up to 2 per cent slightly sooner than expected. All factors considered, the Canadian economy is currently judged to be operating just above its production capacity.
In 2007 and 2008, growth is projected to be a little weaker than was set out in the April MPR. The additional strength that has developed in domestic demand is expected to persist into next year, but this should be more than offset by a weaker outlook for net exports, owing primarily to the recent strength of the Canadian dollar. With some anticipated moderation in U.S. growth, combined with past interest rate and exchange rate increases, the Canadian economy is projected to return to its production capacity by the end of 2008. Total CPI inflation is expected to average just over 1 1/2 per cent from mid-2006 to mid-2007, with the reduction in the Goods and Services Tax lowering the inflation rate by 0.6 percentage points over this period. Inflation should then return to the 2 per cent target. Core inflation should remain at about 2 per cent throughout the projection period.
In line with the Bank's largely unchanged outlook, the current level of the target for the overnight rate is judged at this time to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term. The Bank will monitor global and domestic economic and financial developments, including adjustments in the Canadian economy, relative to its projection. Risks to the projection remain roughly balanced, with a small tilt to the downside later in the projection period related to global imbalances.
Further details of the Bank's outlook for output and inflation will be discussed in the Monetary Policy Report Update, to be released on 13 July 2006.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 6 September 2006. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2006/07/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-4/ | ca | 2006-07-11T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:06+00:00 |
116e485d670b-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 1/2 per cent.
The Canadian and global economies are evolving broadly in line with the Bank's expectations as set out in the January Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU). Real gross domestic product in Canada increased in the fourth quarter of 2006 at a rate consistent with the Bank's projection in the MPRU, and both total CPI and core inflation have been largely as expected. At the end of 2006, the Canadian economy is judged to have been operating at, or just above, its production capacity.
The Bank's outlook for output and inflation in Canada remains essentially unchanged from the MPRU. The Canadian economy is expected to continue to operate near its production capacity through 2007 and 2008. Total CPI inflation should average just above 1 per cent in the first half of 2007, returning to the 2 per cent target in 2008. Core inflation should remain near 2 per cent throughout this period.
Despite recent volatility in global financial markets, the Bank continues to judge that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced. The main downside risk continues to be that growth in the U.S. economy could be lower than expected. The main upside risk continues to be that household spending in Canada could be stronger than expected, largely because of borrowing against increased home equity.
In line with the Bank's outlook, the current level of the target for the overnight rate is judged, at this time, to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
The Bank will present a full and updated analysis of economic and financial developments, trends, and risks in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 26 April 2007.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 24 April 2007. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2007/03/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate-14/ | ca | 2007-03-06T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:15+00:00 |
7c8bf552fb03-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly increased, and the Bank Rate is now 3 3/4 per cent.
Information received since the last interest rate announcement on 6 December indicates that the Canadian and global economies are evolving essentially in line with the Bank's expectations as set out in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian economy continues to adjust to global developments and to the associated changes in relative prices. CPI inflation, at 2.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2005, was lower than expected primarily because of lower gasoline prices. As anticipated, core inflation remained stable at 1.6 per cent. The level of economic activity at year end was close to expectations.
The outlook for growth and inflation in Canada is similar to that in the October MPR. The Bank continues to judge that the Canadian economy is operating at its production capacity and will grow roughly in line with production potential through 2007. CPI and core inflation should return to the 2 per cent target by the first half of 2007. Risks to the Bank's projection remain balanced for 2006 and tilted to the downside through 2007 and beyond. Further details of the Bank's outlook for output and inflation will be discussed in the Monetary Policy Report Update, to be released on 26 January 2006.
In line with the Bank's base-case projection and current assessment of risks, some modest further increase in the policy interest rate would be required to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and inflation on target over the medium term.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 7 March 2006. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2006/01/bank-canada-raises-overnight-rate-3/ | ca | 2006-01-24T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 3 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:04+00:00 |
6c4203768883-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 4 1/2 per cent.
Since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), there have been a number of economic and financial developments that have a bearing on the prospects for output and inflation in Canada.
Consistent with the outlook in the MPR, the global economic expansion has remained robust and commodity prices have continued to be strong. The Canadian economy has been growing broadly in line with the Bank's expectations, reflecting in large part underlying strength in domestic demand. However, both total CPI inflation and core inflation in October, at 2.4 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively, were below the Bank's expectations, reflecting increased competitive pressures related to the level of the Canadian dollar. The Bank now expects inflation over the next several months to be lower than was projected in the MPR. In the context of exceptional volatility in global financial markets, the Canadian dollar spiked well above parity with the U.S. dollar in November, but it has recently traded closer to the 98-cent-U.S. level assumed in the October MPR.
Overall, the Canadian economy continues to operate above its production capacity. Given the strength of domestic demand and weak productivity growth, there continue to be upside risks to the Bank's inflation projection.
However, other developments since October suggest that the downside risks to the Bank's inflation projection have increased. Global financial market difficulties related to the valuation of structured products and anticipated losses on U.S. sub-prime mortgages have worsened since mid-October, and are expected to persist for a longer period of time. In these circumstances, bank funding costs have increased globally and in Canada, and credit conditions have tightened further. There is an increased risk to the prospects for demand for Canadian exports as the outlook for the U.S. economy, and in particular the U.S. housing sector, has weakened.
All these factors considered, the Bank judges that there has been a shift to the downside in the balance of risks around its October projection for inflation through 2009. In light of this shift, the Bank has decided to lower the target for the overnight rate. At its next interest rate decision in January, the Bank will assess all economic and financial developments and the balance of risks. A full projection for the economy and inflation will be published in the Monetary Policy Report Update on 24 January 2008.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 22 January 2008. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2007/12/bank-canada-lowers-overnight-rate-target/ | ca | 2007-12-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 4 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:13+00:00 |
933bbf19fa20-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly increased, and the Bank Rate is now 3 1/4 per cent.
Consumer price data since the Bank's last interest rate announcement on 21 January indicate that both core and total CPI inflation remain well above the Bank's 2 per cent inflation target. Persistent above-target inflation rates over the past few months reflect not only the impact of higher-than-expected crude oil and natural gas prices, but also continuing increases in auto insurance premiums and price pressures in certain sectors such as housing, food, and some services. More broadly, as noted in the January 2003 Monetary Policy Report Update, the fact that relative price increases are having a large impact on measures of trend inflation reflects an underlying firmness in the price-setting environment.
Economic growth in Canada moderated in the final three months of 2002, largely because of weaker exports, most notably a decline in automotive shipments to the United States. However, final domestic demand, particularly household expenditure, continued to expand at a robust pace. Owing to upward revisions to measures of Canadian economic growth in previous quarters, the level of economic activity at the end of 2002 was slightly higher than had been expected. Accordingly, the level of economic activity in Canada remains near full production capacity. In these circumstances, the persistence of above-target rates of inflation has elevated the risk of an increase in inflation expectations.
Significant geopolitical and global economic uncertainties continue to overhang the short-run economic outlook. Nonetheless, the Bank continues to expect demand for Canadian output to pick up in the second half of 2003 and into 2004, as global uncertainties diminish. In light of domestic inflation pressures, the expectation that Canadian economic activity will remain near potential in 2003, the stimulative stance of monetary policy, and improved conditions in capital markets, the Bank has decided to raise the target for the overnight rate.
As indicated in the MPR Update, further reductions in monetary stimulus will be required to return inflation to the target over the medium term. The timing and pace of increases in policy interest rates will continue to depend on a number of considerations. These include the strength of demand pressures, the evolution of inflation expectations, the impact on confidence of geopolitical and global economic uncertainties, and the way in which developments in the Middle East affect demand and inflation, both globally and in Canada. The Bank will continue to monitor closely all these factors.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 15 April 2003.
The Monetary Policy Report will be published on 23 April 2003. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2003/03/bank-canada-raises-overnight-rate/ | ca | 2003-03-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 3 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:03+00:00 |
fcbceaad7a95-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly increased, and the Bank Rate is now 3 per cent.
Since the Bank's last interest rate announcement on 4 June, the economic recovery in Canada has remained stronger than expected and has broadened across sectors. This momentum has been reflected in continued strong growth in employment and spending by households, as well as in some pickup of investment in machinery and equipment. As a result, the economy has been moving towards full production capacity more quickly than anticipated. Core inflation, which was 2.2 per cent in May, has remained a little higher than projected.
There are both positive and negative risks to the Canadian economic outlook. On the positive side, with considerable monetary stimulus in the economy, growth in Canada could very well continue to exceed expectations. On the negative side, the main risk is the marked uncertainty associated with recent global corporate and financial market developments and their potential effects on confidence and world economic growth.
The Bank's decision to raise interest rates represents a further measured reduction in the substantial amount of monetary stimulus in the economy. In the period ahead, the Bank will remain focused on taking the necessary actions to achieve the inflation target of 2 per cent over the medium term.
Information note:
An elaboration of the Bank's views on the economy and the outlook for inflation that were the basis for today's interest rate decision will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report Update, to be published on 24 July 2002.
The Bank's next scheduled date for announcing policy interest rates is 4 September 2002. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2002/07/bank-canada-raises-overnight-rate-target/ | ca | 2002-07-16T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 2 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:08+00:00 |
f3c436abfdaa-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 3 1/4 per cent.
The three global developments highlighted in the July Monetary Policy Report Update continue to have a major influence on the Canadian economy. Two of them - the course of the U.S. economy and the ongoing turbulence in global financial markets - have evolved broadly in line with the Bank's expectations. However, there is an increased risk of a more pronounced interplay between weakness in the U.S. economy and tightness in credit conditions that could affect the U.S. outlook for 2009.
With respect to the third highlighted development, the sharp increases in commodity prices, the risk identified in July that these prices could be weaker than assumed has materialized. This has been largely due to the impact of slower global growth on the demand for energy. Given tight inventories, commodity prices can be expected to remain volatile. The reduction in commodity prices has been a significant factor in the decline of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. The weaker global growth and the decline of the Canadian dollar will have opposing effects on the demand for Canadian goods and services.
In Canada, domestic demand has slowed modestly but remains strong. It continues to be supported by financial conditions that remain significantly better than those in most other major economies and by income gains stemming from past improvements in the terms of trade. Overall, the level of economic activity is slightly lower than expected in July but still close to the economy's production capacity.
Global inflationary pressures remain elevated, with potential implications for import prices and the dynamics of inflation in Canada. While total CPI inflation has moved above 3 per cent, core inflation has stayed at 1.5 per cent as expected. The temporary factors affecting both of these measures should dissipate over the coming quarters, and the Bank continues to expect that total and core inflation will converge on 2 per cent in the second half of 2009. However, the recent decline in both spot and futures prices for energy means that the spike in total CPI inflation expected between now and the first quarter of 2009 will be lower than projected in July.
Given these developments, the Bank judges that the current level of the target for the overnight rate remains appropriately accommodative. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 21 October 2008. A full update of the Bank's outlook for growth and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 23 October 2008. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2008/09/bank-canada-keeps-overnight-rate-at-3-per-cent/ | ca | 2008-09-03T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps overnight rate target at 3 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:03+00:00 |
5798050f2ca1-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 1 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 1 3/4 per cent.
The outlook for the world economy has deteriorated significantly and the global recession will be broader and deeper than previously anticipated. Global financial markets remain severely strained. Measures taken by major governments are beginning to encourage credit flows, although it will take some time before conditions in financial markets normalize. In addition, a series of recently announced monetary and fiscal policy actions will also support global economic growth.
While Canada's economy evolved largely as expected during the summer and early autumn, it is now entering a recession as a result of the weakness in global economic activity. The recent declines in terms of trade, real income growth, and confidence are prompting more cautious behaviour by households and businesses.
All of these factors imply a lower profile for core inflation than had been projected at the time of the last Monetary Policy Report in October.
Several factors are helping to counterbalance the negative drag from the global economic and financial developments. The depreciation of the Canadian dollar will continue to provide an important offset to the effects of weaker global demand and lower commodity prices. As well, money markets and overall credit conditions in Canada are responding to significant and ongoing efforts to provide liquidity to the Canadian financial system.
In light of the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, the Bank of Canada lowered its policy interest rate by a total of 75 basis points in October and by an additional 75 basis points today. These monetary policy actions provide timely and significant support to the Canadian economy.
The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in judging to what extent further monetary stimulus will be required to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 January 2009.
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report Update on 22 January 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2008/12/bank-canada-lowers-overnight-rate-2/ | ca | 2008-12-09T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 3/4 percentage point to 1 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:07+00:00 |
9c5d8d70534c-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly increased, and the Bank Rate is now 3 per cent.
Information received since the July Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU) indicates that the global and Canadian economies have generally evolved in line with the Bank's expectations, but world energy prices have moved above levels assumed at that time. Core and total CPI inflation in July were slightly below expectations, and the pace of growth and level of activity in the Canadian economy in the second quarter were somewhat higher than had been expected. With the economy operating close to full capacity, and consistent with the Bank's analysis in the MPRU, today's interest rate increase will help to promote a balance between aggregate demand and supply in the economy and keep inflation on target over the medium term.
Hurricane Katrina has taken a tragic human toll in the U.S. gulf states. The Bank's preliminary assessment is that the hurricane's disruption to the U.S. economy is likely to translate into somewhat lower output growth in the United States over the balance of 2005 and somewhat higher growth in 2006. The overall impact on Canadian economic activity will probably be modest, although there will be a temporary spike in consumer prices, reflecting higher prices for gasoline and heating fuels.
Despite developments associated with higher energy prices, risks to the Bank's outlook for the Canadian economy through 2006 still appear to be reasonably balanced. Over the medium term, however, there is increasing risk that the correction of global current account imbalances could involve a period of weakness in world aggregate demand.
With the Canadian economy operating close to capacity and the stance of monetary policy still stimulative, the Bank will be monitoring developments closely and continuing to assess underlying trends in the economy and their implications for keeping inflation on target over the medium term.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 18 October 2005.
The Monetary Policy Report will be published on 20 October 2005. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2005/09/bank-canada-raises-overnight-rate-target-5/ | ca | 2005-09-07T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 2 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:01+00:00 |
0e6f205a63a9-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 3 per cent.
The strong expansion of the Canadian economy is continuing, with domestic demand growth fuelled by the substantial monetary stimulus in the economy. Core and total CPI inflation have risen appreciably above the Bank's 2 per cent target for inflation control, largely because of a number of relative price movements. At the same time, the outlook for global economic activity has weakened, reflecting uncertainty about economic, financial, and geopolitical developments, as well as a reduced tolerance for risk in global financial markets. These uncertainties and the weaker global outlook may dampen growth in aggregate demand for Canadian output in the near term. The Bank has therefore decided to leave the target for the overnight rate unchanged at this time.
It remains the Bank's view, going forward, that timely removal of monetary stimulus will be required to achieve the inflation target over the medium term. The pace of monetary policy tightening will depend on unfolding economic, financial, and geopolitical developments and their implications for pressures on capacity and inflation in Canada. Particular attention will be paid to ensuring that the relative price movements that are causing inflation to rise do not feed into expectations of generalized price inflation.
An elaboration of the Bank's views on the economy and the outlook for inflation that were the basis for today's interest rate decision will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 23 October 2002.
Information note:
The Bank's next scheduled date for announcing policy interest rates is 3 December 2002. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2002/10/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate-2/ | ca | 2002-10-16T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:05+00:00 |
fea880a041ba-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is reduced by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 3/4 per cent.
The slowing in economic growth in Canada that began in late 2000 has continued through the first part of this year, largely as a result of reduced U.S. demand for Canadian products. At the same time, final domestic demand in Canada has continued to exhibit underlying momentum. Overall, the pace of expansion in the first half of this year has fallen below the growth rate of potential output, leading to some slack in the economy. These conditions should put downward pressure on core inflation, which is expected to fall from above 2 per cent currently to just below 2 per cent by the end of 2001. Total CPI inflation, which has recently been above the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent inflation-control target range because of rising energy prices, is expected to remain above 3 per cent over the next few months, before moving down to about 2 per cent by the end of the year.
In these circumstances, today's reduction in interest rates will support aggregate demand in the economy consistent with keeping inflation close to the Bank's inflation-control target of 2 per cent over the medium term.
The Bank continues to view the possibility that the economic slowdown in the United States could last longer than anticipated as the main risk to the outlook for the Canadian economy. At the same time, given the sustained increases in energy prices, the Bank will need to be vigilant for signs of broader effects on consumer prices generally.
Information note:
The Bank's next scheduled date for announcing policy interest rates is 17 July 2001.
The Monetary Policy Report Update will be published on 1 August 2001. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2001/05/bank-of-canada-lowers-key-policy/ | ca | 2001-05-29T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers key policy rate by 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:00+00:00 |
89a402fb91d8-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 1/4 per cent.
Economic information received since the release of the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) has been generally consistent with the Bank's expectations for growth and core inflation, and reflects the Canadian economy's continuing adjustment to global economic developments. The notable exception has been the sharp rise in world oil prices in response to stronger-than-anticipated global demand for oil and to heightened geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East. This implies that total CPI inflation over the next several months will be higher than the Bank expected.
All things considered, the Bank's outlook for economic growth and core inflation is essentially unchanged from the outlook in the April MPR. The Bank continues to project that the economy will return close to its production potential by the third quarter of 2005 and that core inflation will move back to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2005.
In these circumstances, the Bank decided to leave the target for the overnight rate unchanged.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 July 2004.
The Monetary Policy Report Update will be published on 22 July 2004. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2004/06/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate-4/ | ca | 2004-06-08T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:02+00:00 |
e0318434d9db-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 3/4 per cent.
Since the release of the January Monetary Policy Report Update, the accumulated information on the Canadian and global economies has been broadly consistent with the Bank's expectations. Although the Canadian National Accounts indicated that output growth in the fourth quarter of 2004 was somewhat lower than anticipated in the Update, upward revisions to growth earlier in the year imply a level of economic activity at year end that is in line with the Bank's expectations. The outlook for the Canadian economy and inflation, the analysis of the factors at play, and the implications for the pace of reduction in monetary stimulus are essentially unchanged from those that the Bank presented in January's Update. Consistent with this assessment, the Bank decided to leave the target for the overnight rate unchanged.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 12 April 2005.
The Monetary Policy Report will be published on 14 April 2005. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2005/03/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate-3/ | ca | 2005-03-01T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:58+00:00 |
37c91749e86c-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 3 per cent.
Since the Bank's last interest rate announcement on 3 December, both core and total CPI inflation have risen somewhat more than expected. This reflects not only a stronger-than-anticipated increase in insurance premiums but also some broadening of price pressures. Based on analysis of the inflation data and other indicators of pressures on capacity, it is the Bank's view that the economy may be operating closer to its production capacity than previously believed.
As expected, economic growth in Canada slowed in the second half of 2002 to a growth rate close to potential, constrained by the effects of financial and geopolitical uncertainties and weakness in the global economy. While conditions in financial markets are improving, significant geopolitical and economic uncertainties remain. Accordingly, the Bank has decided to leave its policy interest rates unchanged at this time. However, with the stance of monetary policy currently very stimulative, a reduction of stimulus will be required in order to return inflation to the 2 per cent target over the medium term. An elaboration of the Bank's views on the economy and the outlook for inflation will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report Update, to be published on 23 January 2003.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 March 2003. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2003/01/bank-of-canada-keeps-target-2/ | ca | 2003-01-21T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:04:00+00:00 |
c0db00f5ada9-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 3/4 per cent.
Near-term prospects for economic growth outside North America appear to be slightly stronger than anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU), while near-term economic prospects for the United States are weaker than expected. It now seems likely that the adjustment in the U.S. residential housing sector will be more pronounced and protracted, exacerbated by recent developments in financial markets. On balance, this implies weaker demand for Canadian exports than had been expected at the time of the July MPRU.
In Canada, total and core CPI inflation in July, at 2.2 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively, continued to be above the inflation target but generally in line with the Bank's expectations. The Canadian dollar has also largely traded in the range assumed in the July MPRU. At the same time, the pace of economic growth in the first half of this year was above the Bank's expectations. It now appears that the Canadian economy is operating further above its production potential than was estimated in July. Domestic demand remains robust, buoyed by a continuing strong labour market and higher-than-expected increases in home sales and prices. However, recent developments in financial markets have led to some tightening of credit conditions for Canadian borrowers, which should temper growth in domestic demand.
Against this background, the Bank judges that the current level of the target for the overnight rate is appropriate. However, there are significant upside and downside risks to the outlook for inflation. On the upside, there is a possibility that household demand in Canada could be stronger than anticipated, while on the downside the ongoing adjustment in the U.S. housing sector could be more severe and spill over to the U.S. economy more broadly. In addition, there is uncertainty about the extent and duration of the tightening of credit conditions in Canada and, hence, about the tempering effect this will have on growth in domestic demand.
The Bank will continue to closely monitor evolving economic and financial developments. A full update of the Bank's outlook for growth and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 18 October 2007.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 16 October 2007. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2007/09/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate-12/ | ca | 2007-09-05T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:58+00:00 |
5656262ab22a-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 2 3/4 per cent.
Data received since the Bank's last interest rate announcement on 1 March indicate that the Canadian and global economies have been evolving largely as expected. There is increasing evidence that the Canadian economy is adjusting to global developments. The Bank's outlook for the Canadian economy through to the end of 2006 is essentially unchanged from that in the January Monetary Policy Report Update, with growth this year and next expected to come primarily from strength in domestic demand. In these circumstances, the Bank decided to leave the target for the overnight rate unchanged.
As the economy moves back to its production capacity in the second half of 2006, core inflation is projected to return to the 2 per cent target around the end of next year. In line with this outlook, a reduction of monetary stimulus will be required over time.
There are both upside and downside risks to the outlook, which continue to relate largely to global developments, the associated relative price changes, and the adjustment of the Canadian economy. The details of the Bank's outlook for output and inflation and an analysis of the risks and uncertainties related to this outlook will be discussed in the Monetary Policy Report, to be released on 14 April 2005.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 25 May 2005. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2005/04/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate-15/ | ca | 2005-04-12T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:59+00:00 |
eaf765beac77-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 2 1/4 per cent.
The Canadian economy continues to adjust to developments in the global economy. These include stronger world demand, higher commodity prices, the realignment of world currencies, including the Canadian dollar, and the intensified competition, together with the new trading opportunities, coming from emerging-market economies. These developments require shifts in activity among sectors and create a need for adjustments by many businesses. Monetary policy is facilitating these adjustments by supporting aggregate demand, with the goal of keeping the economy near its full potential and inflation on target.
The Bank's outlook for economic growth and inflation remains essentially unchanged from the outlook published in the January Monetary Policy Report Update. The economy is projected to return close to its production potential by the third quarter of 2005 and core inflation is projected to move back to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2005.
Against this backdrop, the Bank decided to lower the target for the overnight rate by a further quarter percentage point.
The risks to the outlook now appear balanced. An elaboration of the Bank's views on the outlook for inflation and the economy will be provided in the Monetary Policy Report, to be released on 15 April 2004.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 8 June 2004. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2004/04/bank-of-canada-lowers-target-overnight-rate/ | ca | 2004-04-13T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers target for the overnight rate by 1/4 percentage point to 2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:57+00:00 |
4225cc14b587-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 3 per cent.
Consistent with the Bank's economic outlook in the July Monetary Policy Report Update, the Canadian economy continued its strong performance in the second quarter of the year and into the summer. Also, both core inflation and total CPI inflation in July were broadly in line with the Bank's expectations.
Stronger-than-expected growth in domestic demand in Canada continues, buoyed by the substantial amount of monetary stimulus in the economy. However, near-term prospects for growth in the United States and the major overseas economies appear to have weakened somewhat. There is also increased uncertainty associated with global financial market volatility and the unsettled geopolitical situation.
Taking these factors into consideration, the Bank has decided to leave its target for the overnight rate unchanged at this time. Looking forward, it remains the Bank's view that, as the Canadian economy continues to expand and to approach its production capacity, further measured reductions in monetary stimulus will be necessary in order to achieve the inflation control target of 2 per cent over the medium term.
Information note:
The Bank's next scheduled date for announcing policy interest rates is 16 October 2002.
The Monetary Policy Report will be published on 23 October 2002. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2002/09/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-rate/ | ca | 2002-09-04T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 2 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:56+00:00 |
b7fc2ff4dcaa-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly increased, and the Bank Rate is now 3 1/4 per cent.
The global and Canadian economies have continued to grow at a solid pace. At the same time, there have been significant movements in energy prices and the Canadian dollar has traded in a higher range against the U.S. dollar and other major currencies. Overall, the Canadian economy now appears to be operating at its full production capacity.
The Bank projects that the Canadian economy will continue to operate at about its production potential through 2007. CPI and core inflation are projected to be 2 per cent in the second half of 2006, although CPI inflation is expected to average near 3 per cent until then, boosted by high energy prices. Short-term risks to this projection appear to be balanced. But as we look further out to 2007 and beyond, there are increasing risks that the unwinding of global economic imbalances could involve a period of weak global growth.
In line with the Bank's outlook, and given that the Canadian economy now appears to be operating at capacity, some further reduction of monetary stimulus will be required to maintain a balance between aggregate supply and demand over the next four to six quarters, and to keep inflation on target. However, with the risks to the global outlook tilted to the downside as we look to 2007 and beyond, the Bank will monitor international developments particularly closely. More generally, the Bank will continue to assess the adjustments and underlying trends in the Canadian economy, as well as the balance of risks, as it conducts monetary policy to keep inflation on target over the medium term.
The details of the Bank's outlook for output and inflation and an analysis of the risks and uncertainties related to this outlook will be discussed in the Monetary Policy Report, to be released on 20 October 2005.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 6 December 2005. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2005/10/bank-canada-raises-overnight-rate-target-3/ | ca | 2005-10-18T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 3 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:56+00:00 |
cbc970c5583b-0 | The Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by one-half of one percentage point to 5¾ per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate was correspondingly increased, and the Bank Rate is now 6 per cent.
In its latest Monetary Policy Report, released last week, the Bank took note of the strength of demand in Canada from both international and domestic sources, some early signs of pressures on capacity limits, and the need to lean against these trends in order to preserve the low and stable inflation environment that has been benefiting the Canadian economy.
An important source of this strong growth in demand has been the U.S. economy. Yesterday’s action by the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its target level for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points underscores the strength of that economy and the continued risk of demand and inflation pressures spilling over from the United States into Canada.
This move by the Bank of Canada reflects the judgment that a tightening in monetary conditions in Canada is warranted, given that the underlying momentum of demand growth and the high levels of activity risk putting excessive pressure on the economy’s capacity limits, and thus on inflation.
It is through the Bank’s commitment to a low and stable inflation environment that monetary policy can best contribute to sustained economic expansion in Canada, which will increase the likelihood of lower unemployment and improved productivity. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2000/05/bank-canada-raises-target-overnight-rate/ | ca | 2000-05-17T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada Raises Target Overnight Rate by ½ Percentage Point to 5¾ Per Cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:55+00:00 |
2041b0ee20fe-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-half of one percentage point to 2 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 2 1/2 per cent.
Recent economic developments in Canada have been broadly consistent with expectations at the time of the last policy interest rate announcement on 23 October, as presented in the November Monetary Policy Report. Accordingly, the Bank continues to anticipate that the economy will be operating with excess capacity throughout 2002. Core inflation, which slowed to 2.2 per cent in October, is thus expected to decline further to about 1 1/2 per cent in the second half of 2002. Total CPI inflation, which dropped to 1.9 per cent in October, is expected to remain below core inflation in 2002, if energy prices stay at or below their levels in early September.
Today's interest rate reduction provides additional support for growth in domestic demand, consistent with returning inflation to the Bank's 2-per-cent inflation target over the medium term. The cumulative reduction in policy interest rates since the beginning of 2001 is now 3 1/2 percentage points. This represents a substantial amount of monetary stimulus which, in the period ahead, will work to counteract the weakness in aggregate demand.
It is still too early to characterize the economic outlook with great assurance, given ongoing uncertainties. The November Monetary Policy Report set out the Bank's two working assumptions, which are that there will be no further major escalation of terrorism and that consumer and business confidence will return to normal levels in the second half of 2002. Geopolitical developments since then have been consistent with these assumptions.
Information note
The Bank's next scheduled date for announcing policy interest rates is 15 January 2002.
The Monetary Policy Report Update will be published on 23 January 2002. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2001/11/bank-of-canada-lowers-key-policy-5/ | ca | 2001-11-27T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers key policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point to 2 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:54+00:00 |
f4e71aaa6a9e-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
The Bank’s October projection for global economic growth appears to be intact. There is nascent evidence that the global economy is stabilizing, with growth still expected to edge higher over the next couple of years. Financial markets have been supported by central bank actions and waning recession concerns, while being buffeted by news on the trade front. Indeed, ongoing trade conflicts and related uncertainty are still weighing on global economic activity, and remain the biggest source of risk to the outlook. In this context, commodity prices and the Canadian dollar have remained relatively stable.
Growth in Canada slowed in the third quarter of 2019 to 1.3 percent, as expected. Consumer spending expanded moderately, underpinned by stronger wage growth. Housing investment was also a source of strength, supported by population growth and low mortgage rates. The Bank continues to monitor the evolution of financial vulnerabilities related to the household sector. As expected, exports contracted, driven by non-energy commodities. However, investment spending unexpectedly showed strong growth, notably in transportation equipment and engineering projects. The Bank will be assessing the extent to which this points to renewed momentum in investment.
CPI inflation in Canada remains at target, and measures of core inflation are around 2 percent, consistent with an economy operating near capacity. Inflation will increase temporarily in the coming months due to year-over-year movements in gasoline prices. The Bank continues to expect inflation to track close to the 2 percent target over the next two years.
Based on developments since October, Governing Council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target. Future interest rate decisions will be guided by the Bank’s continuing assessment of the adverse impact of trade conflicts against the sources of resilience in the Canadian economy – notably consumer spending and housing activity. Fiscal policy developments will also figure into the Bank’s updated outlook in January.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 22, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/12/fad-press-release-2019-12-04/ | ca | 2019-12-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:52+00:00 |
65b382e5fda2-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 1/2 per cent.
Since the July Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU), the global economy has continued its solid expansion. While there has been some moderation in U.S. economic growth, in the rest of the world growth has strengthened further. Commodity prices have remained firm through this period. In Canada, the level of economic activity in the second quarter of 2006 was somewhat below the Bank's expectations, primarily because of weaker exports. Total and core CPI inflation in July came in slightly higher than the Bank expected, owing largely to price strength in the housing and services sectors. Nevertheless, all things considered, the underlying trends in the Canadian economy appear to be in line with the broad thrust of the Bank's July projection in terms of output and inflation.
Looking forward, the Bank continues to expect the Canadian economy to operate at about its production potential, with total CPI inflation returning to the 2 per cent inflation target in the second half of 2007. In line with this outlook, the current level of the target for the overnight rate is judged at this time to be consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
The key risks to the outlook over the next few quarters remain those set out in the July MPRU: the upside risks to Canadian output and inflation relate primarily to the momentum in household spending and housing prices, while the main downside risk is that U.S. household demand could slow more rapidly than expected, thus reducing demand for Canadian exports. While both these risks appear to be a little greater than they were in July, the Bank continues to judge that, overall, risks are roughly balanced. The Bank will pay close attention to the evolution of risks, together with economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies. A full analysis of economic developments, trends, and risks will be provided in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 19 October 2006.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 October 2006. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2006/09/bank-canada-keeps-target-overnight-2/ | ca | 2006-09-06T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-10-18T18:03:53+00:00 |
3e504de58d1e-0 | The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent.
While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding.
Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing, as the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity.
In Canada, GDP growth slowed to 0.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2019, in line with the Bank’s forecast, although its composition was different. Consumption was stronger than expected, supported by healthy labour income growth. Residential investment continued to grow, albeit at a more moderate pace than earlier in the year. Meanwhile, both business investment and exports weakened.
It is becoming clear that the first quarter of 2020 will be weaker than the Bank had expected. The drop in Canada’s terms of trade, if sustained, will weigh on income growth. Meanwhile, business investment does not appear to be recovering as was expected following positive trade policy developments. In addition, rail line blockades, strikes by Ontario teachers, and winter storms in some regions are dampening economic activity in the first quarter.
CPI inflation in January was stronger than expected, due to temporary factors. Core measures of inflation all remain around 2 percent, consistent with an economy that has been operating close to potential.
In light of all these developments, the outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target. While markets continue to function well, the Bank will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.
The Bank continues to closely monitor economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 15, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/03/fad-press-release-2020-03-04/ | ca | 2020-03-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to 1 ¼ percent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:51+00:00 |
260c7a292b99-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Inflation in Canada remains low. Core inflation is expected to stay well below 2 per cent this year due to the effects of economic slack and heightened retail competition, and these effects will persist until early 2016. However, higher consumer energy prices and the lower Canadian dollar will exert temporary upward pressure on total CPI inflation, pushing it closer to the 2 per cent target in the coming quarters. We expect total CPI inflation will remain close to target throughout the projection, even as upward pressure from energy prices dissipates, because the impact of retail competition will gradually fade and excess capacity will be absorbed.
The global economic expansion is expected to strengthen over the next three years as headwinds that have been restraining activity dissipate. The economic recovery in the United States appears to be on track, despite soft readings in the last few months largely due to unusual weather. Indeed, private demand could turn out to be stronger than anticipated. Europe’s economy is growing modestly, but inflation remains too low and the nascent recovery could be undermined by risks emanating from the Russia-Ukraine situation. In China and other emerging-market economies growth is expected to be solid, although there are growing concerns about financial vulnerabilities. Overall, global growth is expected to pick up to 3.3 per cent in 2014 and increase further to 3.7 per cent in 2015 and 2016 – largely unchanged from the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
The Bank continues to expect Canada’s real GDP growth to average about 2 1/2 per cent in 2014 and 2015 before easing to around the 2 per cent growth rate of the economy’s potential in 2016. Competitiveness challenges continue to weigh on Canadian exporters’ ability to benefit from stronger growth abroad. However, a range of export subsectors have been growing in line with fundamentals, which suggests that as the U.S. recovery gathers momentum and becomes more broadly-based, many of our exports will benefit. The lower Canadian dollar should provide additional support. We continue to believe that rising global demand for Canadian goods and services, combined with the assumed high level of oil prices, will stimulate business investment in Canada and shift the economy to a more sustainable growth track.
Recent developments are in line with the Bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the housing market and stabilizing debt-to-income ratios for households. Still, household imbalances remain elevated and would pose a significant risk should economic conditions deteriorate.
In sum, the Bank continues to see a gradual strengthening in the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada. This view hinges critically on the projected upturn in exports and investment. With underlying inflation expected to remain below target for some time, the downside risks to inflation remain important. At the same time, the risks associated with household imbalances remain elevated. The Bank judges that the balance of these risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences the balance of risks.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 June 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 16 July 2014. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/04/fad-press-release-2014-04-16/ | ca | 2014-04-16T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:51+00:00 |
1ee0d0fa6567-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.
The rebound in the global and Canadian economies has unfolded largely as the Bank had anticipated in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). More recently, news on the development of effective vaccines is providing reassurance that the pandemic will end and more normal activities will resume, although the pace and breadth of the global rollout of vaccinations remain uncertain. Near term, new waves of infections are expected to set back recoveries in many parts of the world. Accommodative policy and financial conditions are continuing to provide support across most regions. Stronger demand is pushing up prices for most commodities, including oil. A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate has contributed to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.
In Canada, national accounts data for the third quarter were consistent with the Bank’s expectations of a sharp economic rebound following the precipitous decline in the second quarter. The labour market continues to recoup the jobs that were lost at the start of the pandemic, albeit at a slower pace. However, activity remains highly uneven across different sectors and groups of workers. Economic momentum heading into the fourth quarter appears to be stronger than was expected in October but, in recent weeks, record high cases of COVID-19 in many parts of Canada are forcing re-imposition of restrictions. This can be expected to weigh on growth in the first quarter of 2021 and contribute to a choppy trajectory until a vaccine is widely available. The federal government’s recently announced measures should help maintain business and household incomes during this second wave of the pandemic and support the recovery.
CPI inflation in October picked up to 0.7 percent, largely reflecting higher prices for fresh fruits and vegetables. While this suggests a slightly firmer track for inflation in the fourth quarter, the outlook for inflation remains in line with the October MPR projection. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, and considerable economic slack is expected to continue to weigh on inflation for some time.
Canada’s economic recovery will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our October projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway and will adjust it as required to help bring inflation back to target on a sustainable basis. We remain committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 20, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time.
Subsequent to the Bank’s previously announced review of the publication time of its interest rate announcements, the Bank re-confirms that it will remain at 10:00 (ET). As announced, starting in January the target for the overnight rate will take effect on the business day following each rate announcement. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/12/fad-press-release-2020-12-09/ | ca | 2020-12-09T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues its quantitative easing program | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:49+00:00 |
c5aefe707a70-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Global growth in the first half of 2016 was slower than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the Bank continues to expect it to strengthen gradually in the second half of this year. The US economy was weaker than expected in the second quarter, notably reflecting a contraction in business and residential investment. While a healthy labour market and solid consumption should remain supportive of growth in the rest of the year, the outlook for business investment has become less certain. Meanwhile, global financial conditions have become even more accommodative since July.
While Canada’s economy shrank in the second quarter, the Bank still projects a substantial rebound in the second half of this year. Second-quarter GDP was pulled down by the Alberta wildfires in May and by a drop in exports that was larger and more broad-based than expected. Exports disappointed even after accounting for weaker business and residential investment in the United States, adjustments in the resource sector, and cutbacks in auto production. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter as oil production recovers, rebuilding commences in Alberta, and consumer spending gets an additional lift from Canada Child Benefit payments. As federal infrastructure spending starts to have more impact, growth in the fourth quarter is projected to remain above potential. While the strength in exports during July was encouraging, the ground lost over previous months raises the possibility that the profile for economic activity will be somewhat lower than anticipated in July.
Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target, mainly because of the temporary effects of lower consumer energy prices. Measures of core inflation remain around 2 per cent, reflecting offsetting effects of excess capacity and past exchange rate depreciation.
On balance, risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July. At the same time, while there are preliminary signs of a possible moderation in the Vancouver housing market, financial vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated and continue to rise. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 19 October 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at that time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/09/fad-press-release-2016-09-07/ | ca | 2016-09-07T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:50+00:00 |
5d0589d34889-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic expansion is proceeding broadly as projected in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with modest growth in major advanced economies and robust expansions in emerging economies. The U.S. economy has grown at a slower pace than expected and continues to be restrained by the consolidation of household balance sheets and slow growth in employment. While growth in core Europe has been stronger than expected, necessary fiscal austerity measures in a number of countries will restrain growth over the projection horizon. The Japanese economy has begun to recover from the disasters that struck in March, although the level of economic activity in that country will remain below previous expectations. In contrast, growth in emerging-market economies, particularly China, remains very strong. As a consequence, commodity prices are expected to remain at elevated levels, following recent declines. These high prices, combined with persistent excess demand in major emerging-market economies, are contributing to broader global inflationary pressures. Widespread concerns over sovereign debt have increased risk aversion and volatility in financial markets.
In Canada, the economic expansion is proceeding largely as projected, although the expected rotation of demand is somewhat slower than had been anticipated. Household spending remains solid and business investment robust. Net exports remain weak, reflecting modest U.S. demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, particularly the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. Despite increased global risk aversion, financial conditions in Canada remain very stimulative and private credit growth is strong.
Following an anticipated slowdown in growth during the second quarter due to temporary supply chain disruptions and the impact of higher energy prices on consumption, the Bank expects growth in Canada to re-accelerate in the second half of 2011. Over the projection horizon, business investment is expected to remain strong, household spending to grow more in line with disposable income, and net exports to become more supportive of growth. Relative to the April projection, growth in household spending is now projected to be slightly firmer, reflecting higher household income, and net exports to be slightly weaker, reflecting more subdued U.S. activity. Overall, the Bank projects the economy will expand by 2.8 per cent in 2011, 2.6 per cent in 2012, and 2.1 per cent in 2013, returning to capacity in the middle of 2012.
Total CPI inflation is expected to remain above 3 per cent in the near term, largely reflecting temporary factors such as significantly higher food and energy prices. Core inflation is slightly firmer than anticipated, owing to temporary factors and to more persistent strength in the prices of some services. Core inflation is now expected to remain around 2 per cent over the projection horizon. Total CPI inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target by the middle of 2012 as temporary factors unwind, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
The Bank’s projection assumes that authorities are able to contain the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, although there are clear risks around this outcome.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be withdrawn, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. Such reduction would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 20 July 2011. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 7 September 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/07/fad-press-release-2011-07-19/ | ca | 2011-07-19T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:49+00:00 |
0bc03ab0ea60-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The profile for global economic growth has improved since the Bank released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Europe is expected to emerge slowly from recession in the second half of 2012, although the risks around this outlook remain high. The profile for U.S. growth is slightly stronger, reflecting the balance of somewhat improved labour markets, financial conditions and confidence on the one hand, and emerging fiscal consolidation and ongoing household deleveraging on the other. Economic activity in emerging-market economies is expected to moderate to a still-robust pace over the projection horizon, supported by an easing of macroeconomic policies. Improved global economic prospects, supply disruptions and geopolitical risks have kept commodity prices elevated. In particular, the international price of oil has risen further and is now considerably higher than that received by Canadian producers. If sustained, these oil price developments could dampen the improvement in economic momentum.
Overall, economic momentum in Canada is slightly firmer than the Bank had expected in January. The external headwinds facing Canada have abated somewhat, with the U.S. recovery more resilient and financial conditions more supportive than previously anticipated. As a result, business and household confidence are improving faster than forecast in January. The Bank projects that private domestic demand will account for almost all of Canada’s economic growth over the projection horizon. Household spending is expected to remain high relative to GDP as households add to their debt burden, which remains the biggest domestic risk. Business investment is projected to remain robust, reflecting solid balance sheets, very favourable credit conditions, continuing strong terms of trade and heightened competitive pressures. The contribution of government spending to growth is expected to be quite modest over the projection horizon, in line with recent federal and provincial budgets. The recovery in net exports is likely to remain weak in light of modest external demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.4 per cent in both 2012 and 2013 before moderating to 2.2 per cent in 2014. The degree of economic slack has been somewhat smaller than the Bank had anticipated in January, and the economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013.
As a result of this reduced slack and higher gasoline prices, the profile for inflation is expected to be somewhat firmer than anticipated in January. After moderating this quarter, total CPI inflation is expected, along with core inflation, to be around 2 per cent over the balance of the projection horizon as the economy reaches its production potential, the growth of labour compensation remains moderate, and inflation expectations stay well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In light of the reduced slack in the economy and firmer underlying inflation, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 April 2012. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 5 June 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/04/fad-press-release-2012-04-17/ | ca | 2012-04-17T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:50+00:00 |
e31aa1a5cad7-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Inflation is close to the 2 per cent target and is evolving as the Bank anticipated in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Recent data reinforce the Bank’s view that the earlier pickup in inflation was attributable to the temporary effects of higher energy prices, exchange rate pass-through, and other sector-specific factors rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals.
The global economy is performing largely as expected. The recovery in Europe appears to be faltering as the situation in Ukraine weighs on confidence. In the United States, a solid recovery seems to be back on track, with business investment now making a significant contribution to growth. Global financial conditions remain very stimulative and longer-term bond yields have eased even further.
In Canada, stronger growth in the second quarter has brought GDP to almost exactly the level the Bank had projected in July's MPR. Canadian exports surged in the second quarter after a weak winter, supported notably by stronger U.S. investment spending and the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. While an increasing number of export sectors appear to be turning the corner toward recovery, this pickup will need to be sustained before it will translate into higher business investment and hiring. Meanwhile, activity in the housing market has been stronger than anticipated. The Bank still expects excess capacity in the economy to be absorbed during the next two years.
Overall, the risks to the outlook for inflation remain roughly balanced, while the risks associated with household imbalances have not diminished. The balance of these risks is still within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 1 per cent. The Bank remains neutral with respect to the next change to the policy rate: its timing and direction will depend on how new information influences the outlook and assessment of risks.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 22 October 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection as well as the Bank’s annually-updated estimate of the economy’s potential, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/09/fad-press-release-2014-09-03/ | ca | 2014-09-03T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:49+00:00 |
e41a7c1e1408-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Global growth prospects are unfolding largely as the Bank projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with a widespread slowing of activity across advanced and emerging economies. The economic expansion in the United States continues at a gradual pace. Europe is in recession and its crisis, while contained, remains acute. In China and other major emerging economies, growth is decelerating somewhat more quickly than expected from previously-rapid rates, reflecting past policy tightening, weaker external demand, and the challenges of rebalancing towards domestic sources of growth. Notwithstanding the slower global momentum, prices for oil and other commodities produced by Canada have, on average, increased since July.
In Canada, while global headwinds continue to restrain economic activity, underlying momentum remains at a pace roughly in line with the economy’s production potential. Economic growth is expected to pick up through 2013, with consumption and business investment continuing to be its principal drivers, reflecting very stimulative financial conditions. Business investment remains solid. There are tentative signs of slowing in household spending, although the household debt burden continues to rise. Canadian exports are projected to remain below their pre-recession peak until the beginning of 2014, reflecting the dynamics of foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Core inflation has been softer than expected in recent months but, with the economy operating near its production potential, it is expected to return, along with total CPI inflation, to 2 per cent over the course of the next 12 months.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 23 October 2012. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 24 October 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/09/fad-press-release-2012-09-05/ | ca | 2012-09-05T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:49+00:00 |
04ba9c435a32-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Global economic growth has evolved largely as anticipated in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economic expansion is progressing at a modest pace, with continued strengthening in private demand partly offset by fiscal consolidation. Japan’s economy is beginning to respond to significant policy stimulus. Europe, in contrast, remains in recession. Growth in China has continued to ease from very strong rates, weighing somewhat on global commodity prices. The Bank continues to expect global economic activity to grow modestly in 2013 before strengthening over the following two years.
In Canada, recent economic indicators suggest that growth in the first quarter was stronger than the Bank projected in April. For the year as a whole, growth is expected to remain broadly in line with the Bank's MPR forecast. Over the projection horizon, consumer spending is expected to grow at a moderate pace, business investment to grow solidly, and residential investment to decline further from historically high levels. Growth in total household credit is slowing and the Bank continues to expect that the household debt-to-income ratio will stabilize near current levels. Exports are projected to continue to recover, but to be restrained by subdued foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Core inflation is in line with the April MPR projection, while total CPI inflation has been slightly weaker. Both total and core inflation are expected to remain subdued in coming quarters before gradually rising to 2 per cent by mid-2015 as the economy returns to full capacity and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 July 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/05/fad-press-release-2013-05-29/ | ca | 2013-05-29T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:48+00:00 |
0e8d489ca505-0 | The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.
The COVID-19 pandemic continues to take a severe human and economic toll in Canada and around the world. The earlier-than anticipated arrival of effective vaccines will save lives and livelihoods, and has reduced uncertainty from extreme levels. Nevertheless, uncertainty is still elevated, and the outlook remains highly conditional on the path of the virus and the timeline for the effective rollout of vaccines.
The economic recovery has been interrupted in many countries as new waves of COVID-19 infections force governments to re-impose containment measures. However, the arrival of effective vaccines combined with further fiscal and monetary policy support have boosted the medium-term outlook for growth. In its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank projects global growth to average just over 5 percent per year in 2021 and 2022, before slowing to just under 4 percent in 2023. Global financial markets and commodity prices have reacted positively to improving economic prospects. A broad-based decline in the US exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the Canadian dollar.
Canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback. Growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be negative. Assuming restrictions are lifted later in the first quarter, the Bank expects a strong second-quarter rebound. Consumption is forecast to gain strength as parts of the economy reopen and confidence improves, and exports and business investment will be buoyed by rising foreign demand. Beyond the near term, the outlook for Canada is now stronger and more secure than in the October projection, thanks to earlier-than-expected availability of vaccines and significant ongoing policy stimulus. After a decline in real GDP of 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank projects the economy will grow by 4 percent in 2021, almost 5 percent in 2022, and around 2 ½ percent in 2023.
CPI inflation has risen to the low end of the Bank’s 1-3 percent target range in recent months, while measures of core inflation are still below 2 percent. CPI inflation is forecast to rise temporarily to around 2 percent in the first half of the year, as the base-year effects of price declines at the pandemic’s outset — mostly gasoline — dissipate. Excess supply is expected to weigh on inflation throughout the projection period. As it is absorbed, inflation is expected to return sustainably to the 2 percent target in 2023.
In view of the weakness of near-term growth and the protracted nature of the recovery, the Canadian economy will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway. As the Governing Council gains confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. We remain committed to providing the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 10, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 21, 2021.
As announced, starting with this decision the target for the overnight rate will take effect on the business day following each rate announcement. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/01/fad-press-release-2021-01-20/ | ca | 2021-01-20T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues quantitative easing | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:48+00:00 |
54922fe8d815-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Inflation has risen by more than expected. The increase in inflation over the past year is largely due to the temporary effects of a lower Canadian dollar and some sector-specific factors, notably telecommunications and meat prices. Underlying inflation has edged up but remains below 2 per cent.
The U.S. economy has clearly strengthened, particularly business investment, which has benefitted Canada’s exports. Growth in the rest of the world, in contrast, continues to disappoint, leading authorities in some regions to deploy further policy stimulus. Oil prices have continued to fall, due to both supply and demand developments. In this context, global financial conditions have eased further.
Canada's economy is showing signs of a broadening recovery. Stronger exports are beginning to be reflected in increased business investment and employment. This suggests that the hoped-for sequence of rebuilding that will lead to balanced and self-sustaining growth may finally have begun. However, the lower profile for oil and certain other commodity prices will weigh on the Canadian economy.
The net effect of these recent developments, together with upward revisions to historical data, is that the output gap appears to be smaller than the Bank had projected in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the labour market continues to indicate significant slack in the economy.
While inflation is at a higher starting point relative to the October MPR, weaker oil prices pose an important downside risk to the inflation profile. This is tempered by a stronger U.S. economy, Canadian dollar depreciation, and recent federal fiscal measures. Household imbalances, meanwhile, present a significant risk to financial stability. Overall, the balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 1 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 21 January 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/12/fad-press-release-2014-12-03/ | ca | 2014-12-03T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:47+00:00 |
c0ffe945b145-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
The outlook for the global economy has weakened further since the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Ongoing trade conflicts and uncertainty are restraining business investment, trade, and global growth. A growing number of countries have responded with monetary and other policy measures to support their economies. Still, global growth is expected to slow to around 3 percent this year before edging up over the next two years. Canada has not been immune to these developments. Commodity prices have fallen amid concerns about global demand. Despite this, the Canada-US exchange rate is still near its July level, and the Canadian dollar has strengthened against other currencies.
Growth in Canada is expected to slow in the second half of this year to a rate below its potential. This reflects the uncertainty associated with trade conflicts, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter. Business investment and exports are likely to contract before expanding again in 2020 and 2021. At the same time, government spending and lower borrowing rates are supporting domestic demand, and activity in the services sector remains robust. Employment is showing continuing strength and wage growth is picking up, although with some variation among regions. Consumer spending has been choppy, but will be supported by solid income growth. Meanwhile, housing activity is picking up in most markets. The Bank continues to monitor the evolution of financial vulnerabilities in light of lower mortgage rates and past changes to housing market policies.
The Bank projects real GDP will grow by 1.5 percent this year, 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021. This implies that the current modest output gap will narrow over the projection horizon. Measures of inflation are all around 2 percent. CPI inflation likely will dip temporarily in 2020 as the effect of a previous spike in energy prices fades. Overall, the Bank expects inflation to track close to the 2 percent target over the projection horizon.
All things considered, Governing Council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target. Governing Council is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist. In considering the appropriate path for monetary policy, the Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment. In this context, it will pay close attention to the sources of resilience in the Canadian economy – notably consumer spending and housing activity – as well as to fiscal policy developments.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 4, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 22, 2020. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/10/fad-press-release-2019-10-30/ | ca | 2019-10-30T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:47+00:00 |
db7d2bf19643-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy has unfolded broadly as the Bank projected in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The economic expansion in the United States is progressing at a gradual pace and is being held back by uncertainty related to the fiscal cliff. Europe remains in recession. Chinese growth appears to be stabilizing. Commodity prices have remained at elevated levels since the October MPR and global inflationary pressures are subdued in response to persistent excess capacity. Global financial conditions remain stimulative, though vulnerable to major shocks from the U.S. or Europe.
In Canada, economic activity in the third quarter was weak, owing in part to transitory disruptions in the energy sector. Although underlying momentum appears slightly softer than previously anticipated, the pace of economic growth is expected to pick up through 2013. The expansion is expected to be driven mainly by growth in consumption and business investment, reflecting very stimulative domestic financial conditions. Housing activity is beginning to decline from historically high levels. While the household debt burden continues to rise, growth in household credit has slowed. It is too early, however, to determine whether the moderation in housing activity and credit growth will be sustained. Canadian exports are expected to pick up gradually but continue to be restrained by weak foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges. These challenges include the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar, which is being influenced by safe haven flows and spillovers from global monetary policy.
Inflation has evolved broadly in line with the outlook in the October MPR. Both total and core inflation are expected to increase and return to 2 per cent over the course of the next 12 months as the economy gradually absorbs the current small degree of slack, the growth of labour compensation remains moderate and inflation expectations stay well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against global and domestic developments, including the evolution of imbalances in the household sector.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 23 January 2013. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/12/fad-press-release-2012-12-04/ | ca | 2012-12-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:46+00:00 |
9373333a4818-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
The global economic expansion continues to moderate, with growth forecast to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2019 from 3.7 per cent in 2018. In particular, growth in the United States remains solid but is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace through 2019. However, there are increasing signs that the US-China trade conflict is weighing on global demand and commodity prices.
Global benchmark prices for oil have been about 25 per cent lower than assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The lower prices primarily reflect sustained increases in US oil supply and, more recently, increased worries about global demand. These worries among market participants have also been reflected in bond and equity markets.
The drop in global oil prices has a material impact on the Canadian outlook, resulting in lower terms of trade and national income. As well, transportation constraints and rising production have combined to push up oil inventories in the west and exert even more downward pressure on Canadian benchmark prices. While price differentials have narrowed in recent weeks following announced mandatory production cuts in Alberta, investment in Canada’s oil sector is projected to weaken further.
These developments are occurring in the context of a Canadian economy that has been performing well overall. Growth has been running close to potential, employment growth has been strong and unemployment is at a 40-year low. Looking ahead, exports and non-energy investment are projected to grow solidly, supported by foreign demand, the CUSMA, the lower Canadian dollar, and federal tax measures targeted at investment.
Meanwhile, consumption spending and housing investment have been weaker than expected as housing markets adjust to municipal and provincial measures, changes to mortgage guidelines, and higher interest rates. Household spending will be dampened further by slow growth in oil-producing provinces. The Bank will continue to monitor these adjustments.
The Bank projects real GDP will grow by 1.7 per cent in 2019, 0.4 percentage points slower than the October outlook. This revised forecast reflects a temporary slowing in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019. This will open up a modest amount of excess capacity, primarily in oil-producing regions. Nevertheless, indicators of demand should start to show renewed momentum in early 2019, leading to above-potential growth of 2.1 per cent in 2020.
Core inflation measures remain clustered close to 2 per cent. As expected, CPI inflation eased to 1.7% in November, due to lower gasoline prices. CPI inflation is projected to edge further down and be below 2 per cent through much of 2019, owing mainly to lower gasoline prices. On the other hand, the lower level of the Canadian dollar will exert some upward pressure on inflation. As these transitory effects unwind and excess capacity is absorbed, inflation will return to around the 2 per cent target by late 2019.
Weighing all of these factors, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise over time into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on how the outlook evolves, with a particular focus on developments in oil markets, the Canadian housing market, and global trade policy.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 6, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 24, 2019. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/01/fad-press-release-2019-01-09/ | ca | 2019-01-09T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:46+00:00 |
a8e5231488df-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is entering a new phase. In advanced economies, temporary factors supporting growth in 2010 - such as the inventory cycle and pent-up demand - have largely run their course and fiscal stimulus will shift to fiscal consolidation over the projection horizon. While the Bank expects that private demand in advanced economies will become sufficiently entrenched to sustain the recovery, the combination of difficult labour market dynamics and ongoing deleveraging in many advanced economies is expected to moderate the pace of growth relative to prior expectations. These factors will contribute to a weaker-than-projected recovery in the United States in particular. Growth in emerging-market economies is expected to ease to a more sustainable pace as fiscal and monetary policies are tightened. Heightened tensions in currency markets and related risks associated with global imbalances could result in a more protracted and difficult global recovery.
The economic outlook for Canada has changed. The Bank expects the economic recovery to be more gradual than it had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report, with growth of 3.0 per cent in 2010, 2.3 per cent in 2011, and 2.6 per cent in 2012. This more modest growth profile reflects a more gradual global recovery and a more subdued profile for household spending. With housing activity declining markedly as anticipated and household debt considerations becoming more important, the Bank expects household expenditures to decelerate to a pace closer to the rate of income growth over the projection horizon. Overall, the composition of demand in Canada is expected to shift away from government and household expenditures towards business investment and net exports. The strength of net exports will be sensitive to currency movements, the expected recovery in productivity growth, and the prospects for external demand.
Inflation in Canada has been slightly below the Bank’s July projection. The recent moderation in core inflation is consistent with the persistence of significant excess supply and a deceleration in the growth of unit labour costs. The Bank judges that the output gap is slightly larger and that the economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2012 rather than the beginning of that year, as had been anticipated in July. The inflation outlook has been revised down and both total CPI and core inflation are now expected to converge to 2 per cent by the end of 2012, as excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada.
At this time of transition in the global recovery, with a weaker U.S. outlook, constraints beginning to moderate growth in emerging-market economies, and domestic considerations that are expected to slow consumption and housing activity in Canada, any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 20 October 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 7 December 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/10/fad-press-release-2010-10-19/ | ca | 2010-10-19T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:46+00:00 |
5bc3ce04407d-0 | The Bank of Canada is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Inflation is broadly in line with the Bank’s projection in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Food prices continue to decline, mainly because of intense retail competition, pushing inflation temporarily lower. The Bank’s three measures of core inflation remain below two per cent and wage growth is still subdued, consistent with ongoing excess capacity in the economy.
The global economy continues to gain traction and recent developments reinforce the Bank’s view that growth will gradually strengthen and broaden over the projection horizon. As anticipated, growth in the United States during the first quarter was weak, reflecting mostly temporary factors. Recent data point to a rebound in the second quarter. The uncertainties outlined in the April MPR continue to cloud the global and Canadian outlooks.
The Canadian economy’s adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete and recent economic data have been encouraging, including indicators of business investment. Consumer spending and the housing sector continue to be robust on the back of an improving labour market, and these are becoming more broadly based across regions. Macroprudential and other policy measures, while contributing to more sustainable debt profiles, have yet to have a substantial cooling effect on housing markets. Meanwhile, export growth remains subdued, as anticipated in the April MPR, in the face of ongoing competitiveness challenges. The Bank’s monitoring of the economic data suggests that very strong growth in the first quarter will be followed by some moderation in the second quarter.
All things considered, Governing Council judges that the current degree of monetary stimulus is appropriate at present, and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 12 July 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/05/fad-press-release-2017-05-24/ | ca | 2017-05-24T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:45+00:00 |
c4842e2c614b-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is proceeding but remains uneven, balancing strong activity in emerging market economies with weak growth in some advanced economies. In the United States, the recovery in private demand is being held back by high unemployment and recent indicators suggest a more muted recovery in the near term.
Economic activity in Canada was slightly softer in the second quarter than the Bank had expected, although consumption and investment have evolved largely as anticipated. Going forward, consumption growth is expected to remain solid and business investment to rise strongly. Both are being supported by accommodative credit conditions, which have eased in recent weeks mainly owing to sharp declines in global bond yields.
The Bank now expects the economic recovery in Canada to be slightly more gradual than it had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), largely reflecting a weaker profile for U.S. activity. Inflation in Canada has been broadly in line with the Bank's expectations and its dynamics are essentially unchanged.
Against this backdrop, the Bank decided to increase its target for the overnight rate to 1 per cent. As a result of monetary policy measures taken since April, financial conditions in Canada have tightened modestly but remain exceptionally stimulative. This is consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada.
Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered in light of the unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 19 October 2010. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 20 October 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/09/fad-press-release-2010-09-08/ | ca | 2010-09-08T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:44+00:00 |
ae58fe8c84e6-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Total CPI inflation has moved up to around the 2 per cent target, sooner than anticipated in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), largely due to the temporary effects of higher energy prices and exchange rate pass-through. Core inflation remains significantly below 2 per cent although it has drifted up slightly, partly owing to past exchange rate movements.
Global economic growth in the first quarter of 2014 was weaker than anticipated in the MPR and recent developments give slightly greater weight to downside risks. The U.S. economy is rebounding after a pause in the first quarter, but there could be slightly less underlying momentum than previously expected. Globally, long-term bond yields have continued their decline, reflecting in part growing market anticipation that interest rates will remain low over the long term. This, along with buoyant stock markets and tight credit spreads, indicates that financial conditions remain very stimulative.
The Canadian economy grew at a modest rate in the first quarter, held back by severe weather and supply constraints. The ingredients for a pickup in exports remain in place, including the lower Canadian dollar and an anticipated strengthening of foreign demand. Improved corporate profits, especially in exchange rate-sensitive sectors, should also support higher business investment in the coming quarters. There are continued signs of a soft landing in the housing market and a constructive evolution of household imbalances. We still expect excess supply to be absorbed gradually as the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada strengthen.
Weighing recent higher inflation readings against slightly increased risks to economic growth leaves the downside risks to the inflation outlook as important as before. At the same time, the risks associated with household imbalances remain elevated. The Bank judges that the balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences the balance of risks.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 16 July 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/06/fad-press-release-2014-06-04/ | ca | 2014-06-04T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:45+00:00 |
7c3e81b92948-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
As the US-China trade conflict has escalated, world trade has contracted and business investment has weakened. This is weighing more heavily on global economic momentum than the Bank had projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Meanwhile, growth in the United States has moderated but remains solid, supported by consumer and government spending. Commodity prices have drifted down as concerns about global growth prospects have increased. These concerns, combined with policy responses by some central banks, have pushed bond yields to historic lows and inverted yield curves in a number of economies, including Canada.
In Canada, growth in the second quarter was strong and exceeded the Bank’s July expectation, although some of this strength is expected to be temporary. The rebound was driven by stronger energy production and robust export growth, both recovering from very weak performance in the first quarter. Housing activity has regained strength more quickly than expected as resales and housing starts catch up to underlying demand, supported by lower mortgage rates. This could add to already-high household debt levels, although mortgage underwriting rules should help to contain the buildup of vulnerabilities. Wages have picked up further, boosting labour income, yet consumption spending was unexpectedly soft in the quarter. Business investment contracted sharply after a strong first quarter, amid heightened trade uncertainty. Given this composition of growth, the Bank expects economic activity to slow in the second half of the year.
Inflation is at the 2 percent target. CPI inflation in July was stronger than expected, largely because of temporary factors. These include higher prices for air travel, mobile phones, and some food items, which are offsetting the effects of lower gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation all remain around 2 percent.
In sum, Canada’s economy is operating close to potential and inflation is on target. However, escalating trade conflicts and related uncertainty are taking a toll on the global and Canadian economies. In this context, the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate. As the Bank works to update its projection in light of incoming data, Governing Council will pay particular attention to global developments and their impact on the outlook for Canadian growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 30, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/09/fad-press-release-2019-09-04/ | ca | 2019-09-04T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:43+00:00 |
09e6c43908d7-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Information received since the Bank's April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) is broadly consistent with the Bank's medium-term outlook for output and inflation in Canada. The economy is undergoing major restructuring in a number of sectors. The already significant output gap will continue to widen through the third quarter, putting downward pressure on inflation. The Bank continues to expect that the global and Canadian recoveries will be more muted than usual.
In recent weeks, financial conditions and commodity prices have improved significantly, and consumer and business confidence have recovered modestly. If the unprecedentedly rapid rise in the Canadian dollar (which reflects a combination of higher commodity prices and generalized weakness in the U.S. currency) proves persistent, it could fully offset these positive factors.
The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. While the underlying macroeconomic risks are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection remain tilted slightly to the downside.
Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.
The Bank retains considerable flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 21 July 2009. A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 23 July 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/06/fad-press-release-2009-06-04/ | ca | 2009-06-04T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:44+00:00 |
ae957f00fcf7-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is proceeding largely as expected, although risks have increased. As anticipated, private domestic demand in the United States is picking up slowly, while growth in emerging-market economies has begun to ease to a more sustainable, but still robust, pace. In Europe, recent data have been consistent with a modest recovery. At the same time, there is an increased risk that sovereign debt concerns in several countries could trigger renewed strains in global financial markets.
The recovery in Canada is proceeding at a moderate pace, although economic activity in the second half of 2010 appears slightly weaker than the Bank projected in its October Monetary Policy Report. In the third quarter, household spending was stronger than the Bank had anticipated and growth in business investment was robust. However, net exports were weaker than projected and continued to exert a significant drag on growth. This underlines a previously-identified risk that a combination of disappointing productivity performance and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar could dampen the expected recovery of net exports.
Inflation dynamics in Canada have been broadly in line with the Bank's expectations and the underlying pressures affecting prices remain largely unchanged.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 18 January 2011. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 19 January 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/12/fad-press-release-2010-12-07/ | ca | 2010-12-07T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:42+00:00 |
3d8d2fcfc3d7-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, growth in the third quarter was stronger than forecast but is still expected to moderate in the months ahead. Growth has firmed in other advanced economies. Meanwhile, oil prices have moved higher and financial conditions have eased. The global outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty, notably about geopolitical developments and trade policies.
Recent Canadian data are in line with October’s outlook, which was for growth to moderate while remaining above potential in the second half of 2017. Employment growth has been very strong and wages have shown some improvement, supporting robust consumer spending in the third quarter. Business investment continued to contribute to growth after a strong first half, and public infrastructure spending is becoming more evident in the data. Following exceptionally strong growth earlier in 2017, exports declined by more than was expected in the third quarter. However, the latest trade data support the MPR projection that export growth will resume as foreign demand strengthens. Housing has continued to moderate, as expected.
Inflation has been slightly higher than anticipated and will continue to be boosted in the short term by temporary factors, particularly gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation have edged up in recent months, reflecting the continued absorption of economic slack. Revisions to past quarterly national accounts have resulted in a higher level of GDP. However, this is unlikely to have significant implications for the output gap because the revisions also imply a higher level of potential output. Meanwhile, despite rising employment and participation rates, other indicators point to ongoing – albeit diminishing – slack in the labour market.
Based on the outlook for inflation and the evolution of the risks and uncertainties identified in October’s MPR, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. While higher interest rates will likely be required over time, Governing Council will continue to be cautious, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 17, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/12/fad-press-release-2017-12-06/ | ca | 2017-12-06T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:42+00:00 |
7696abce672a-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. The Bank’s short-term liquidity programs announced since March to improve market functioning are having their intended effect and, with reduced market strains, their use has declined. The provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced. The Bank stands ready to adjust its programs if market conditions warrant.
While economies are re-opening, the global and Canadian outlook is extremely uncertain, given the unpredictability of the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reflecting this, the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) presents a central scenario for global and Canadian growth rather than the usual economic projections. The central scenario is based on assumptions outlined in the MPR, including that there is no widespread second wave of the virus.
After a sharp drop in the first half of 2020, global economic activity is picking up. This return to growth reflects the relaxation of necessary containment measures put in place to slow the spread of the coronavirus, combined with extraordinary fiscal and monetary policy support. As a result, financial conditions have improved. The prices of most commodities, including oil, have risen from very low levels. In the central scenario, the global economy overall shrinks by about 5 percent in 2020 and then grows by around 5 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. The timing and pace of the recovery varies among regions and could be hampered by a resurgence of infections and the limited capacity of some countries to contain the virus or support their economies.
The Canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread. With economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the deepest decline in economic activity since the Great Depression, but considerably less severe than the worst scenarios presented in the April MPR. Decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery. Since early June, the government has announced additional support programs, and extended others.
There are early signs that the reopening of businesses and pent-up demand are leading to an initial bounce-back in employment and output. In the central scenario, roughly 40 percent of the collapse in the first half of the year is made up in the third quarter. Subsequently, the Bank expects the economy’s recuperation to slow as the pandemic continues to affect confidence and consumer behaviour and as the economy works through structural challenges. As a result, in the central scenario, real GDP declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022. The Bank expects economic slack to persist as the recovery in demand lags that of supply, creating significant disinflationary pressures.
CPI inflation is close to zero, pulled down by sharp declines in components such as gasoline and travel services. The Bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the CPI, and are now between 1.4 and 1.9 percent. Inflation is expected to remain weak before gradually strengthening toward 2 percent as the drag from low gas prices and other temporary effects dissipates and demand recovers, reducing economic slack.
As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In addition, to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at a pace of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds. This QE program is making borrowing more affordable for households and businesses and will continue until the recovery is well underway. To support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective, the Bank is prepared to provide further monetary stimulus as needed.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 28, 2020. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/07/fad-press-release-2020-07-15/ | ca | 2020-07-15T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, continues program of quantitative easing | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:41+00:00 |
0f782bf6b047-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The outlook for global economic growth has weakened in recent weeks. Some of the risks around the European crisis are materializing and risks remain skewed to the downside. This is leading to a sharp deterioration in global financial conditions. While the U.S. economy continues to expand at a modest pace, economic activity in emerging-market economies is slowing a bit faster and a bit more broadly than had been expected. More modest global momentum and heightened financial risk aversion have reduced commodity prices.
Although economic growth in Canada was slightly slower than expected in the first quarter, underlying economic momentum appears largely consistent with expectations. However, the composition of growth is less balanced. In particular, housing activity has been stronger than expected, and households continue to add to their debt burden in an environment of modest income growth. Despite external events, business and household confidence has held up and domestic financial conditions remain very stimulative. The contribution of government spending to growth is expected to be quite modest over the projection horizon, in line with recent federal and provincial budgets. The recovery in net exports is likely to remain weak in light of modest external demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian economy continues to operate with a small degree of excess capacity. Total CPI inflation is expected to fall below 2 per cent in the short term, as a result of lower gasoline prices, while core inflation is expected to remain around 2 per cent.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 July 2012. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 July 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/06/fad-press-release-2012-06-05/ | ca | 2012-06-05T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:42+00:00 |
8174e6ab2c1f-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
Evidence has been accumulating that ongoing trade tensions are having a material effect on the global economic outlook. The Bank had already incorporated such negative effects in previous Monetary Policy Reports (MPR) and in this forecast has made further adjustments in light of weaker sentiment and activity in major economies. Trade conflicts between the United States and China, in particular, are curbing manufacturing activity and business investment and pushing down commodity prices.
Policy is responding to the slowdown: central banks in the US and Europe have signalled their readiness to provide more accommodative monetary policy and further policy stimulus has been implemented in China. In this context, global financial conditions have eased substantially. The Bank now expects global GDP to grow by 3 percent in 2019 and to strengthen to around 3 ¼ percent in 2020 and 2021, with the US slowing to a pace near its potential. Escalation of trade conflicts remains the biggest downside risk to the global and Canadian outlooks.
Following temporary weakness in late 2018 and early 2019, Canada’s economy is returning to growth around potential, as expected. Growth in the second quarter appears to be stronger than predicted due to some temporary factors, including the reversal of weather-related slowdowns in the first quarter and a surge in oil production. Consumption is being supported by a healthy labour market. At the national level, the housing market is stabilizing, although there are still significant adjustments underway in some regions. A material decline in longer-term mortgage rates is supporting housing activity. Exports rebounded in the second quarter and will grow moderately as foreign demand continues to expand. However, ongoing trade conflicts and competitiveness challenges are dampening the outlook for trade and investment. The Bank projects real GDP growth to average 1.3 percent in 2019 and about 2 percent in 2020 and 2021.
Inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices. Core measures of inflation are also close to 2 percent. CPI inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors. As slack in the economy is absorbed and these temporary effects wane, inflation is expected to return sustainably to 2 percent by mid-2020.
Recent data show the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth. However, the outlook is clouded by persistent trade tensions. Taken together, the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate. As Governing Council continues to monitor incoming data, it will pay particular attention to developments in the energy sector and the impact of trade conflicts on the prospects for Canadian growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 4, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 30, 2019. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/07/fad-press-release-2019-07-10/ | ca | 2019-07-10T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:39+00:00 |
14abdfbec923-0 | The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Recent economic data have been stronger than expected, supporting the Bank’s view that growth in Canada is becoming more broadly-based and self-sustaining. Consumer spending remains robust, underpinned by continued solid employment and income growth. There has also been more widespread strength in business investment and in exports. Meanwhile, the housing sector appears to be cooling in some markets in response to recent changes in tax and housing finance policies. The Bank continues to expect a moderation in the pace of economic growth in the second half of 2017, for the reasons described in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), but the level of GDP is now higher than the Bank had expected.
The global economic expansion is becoming more synchronous, as anticipated in July, with stronger-than-expected indicators of growth, including higher industrial commodity prices. However, significant geopolitical risks and uncertainties around international trade and fiscal policies remain, leading to a weaker US dollar against many major currencies. In this context, the Canadian dollar has appreciated, also reflecting the relative strength of Canada’s economy.
While inflation remains below the 2 per cent target, it has evolved largely as expected in July. There has been a slight increase in both total CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation, consistent with the dissipating negative impact of temporary price shocks and the absorption of economic slack. Nonetheless, there remains some excess capacity in Canada’s labour market, and wage and price pressures are still more subdued than historical relationships would suggest, as observed in some other advanced economies.
Given the stronger-than-expected economic performance, Governing Council judges that today’s removal of some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus in place is warranted. Future monetary policy decisions are not predetermined and will be guided by incoming economic data and financial market developments as they inform the outlook for inflation. Particular focus will be given to the evolution of the economy’s potential, and to labour market conditions. Furthermore, given elevated household indebtedness, close attention will be paid to the sensitivity of the economy to higher interest rates.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 25, 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/09/fad-press-release-2017-09-06/ | ca | 2017-09-06T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:41+00:00 |
3c117bd6f924-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic outlook has deteriorated in recent weeks as several downside risks to the projection in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been realized. The European sovereign debt crisis has intensified, a broad range of data has signalled slower global growth, and financial market volatility has increased sharply. Recent benchmark revisions show that the U.S. recession was deeper and its recovery has been shallower than previously reported. In combination with recent economic data, this implies that U.S. growth will be weaker than previously anticipated. The Bank expects that American household spending will be even more subdued in the face of high personal debt burdens, large declines in wealth and tough labour market conditions. Fiscal stimulus in the United States will also soon turn into material fiscal drag. Acute fiscal and financial strains in Europe have triggered a generalized retrenchment from risk-taking and could prompt more severe dislocations in global financial markets. Resolution of these strains will require additional significant initiatives by European authorities. Growth in emerging-market economies has been robust, although its rate and composition will be affected by weakness in major advanced economies. While commodity prices have declined owing to diminished global growth prospects, they remain relatively high.
Largely due to temporary factors, Canadian economic growth stalled in the second quarter. The Bank continues to expect that growth will resume in the second half of this year, led by business investment and household expenditures, although lower wealth and incomes will likely moderate the pace of investment and consumption growth. The supply and price of credit to businesses and households remain very stimulative. However, financial conditions in Canada have tightened somewhat and could tighten further in the event that global financial conditions continue to deteriorate. Net exports are now expected to remain a major source of weakness, reflecting more modest global demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, in particular the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Slower global economic momentum will dampen domestic resource utilization and inflationary pressures. The Bank expects total CPI inflation to continue to moderate as temporary factors, such as significantly higher food and energy prices, unwind. Core inflation is expected to remain well-contained as labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In light of slowing global economic momentum and heightened financial uncertainty, the need to withdraw monetary policy stimulus has diminished. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 25 October 2011.
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 26 October 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/09/fad-press-release-2011-09-07/ | ca | 2011-09-07T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:39+00:00 |
ab88e77fba58-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Global economic growth is strengthening and becoming more broadly-based than the Bank had expected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although there is still considerable uncertainty about the outlook. In the United States, some temporary factors weighed on economic activity in the first quarter but the drivers of growth remain solid. The US is close to full employment, unlike many other advanced economies, including Canada, where material slack remains. Global financial conditions remain accommodative. The Bank expects global GDP growth to increase from 3 1/4 per cent this year to about 3 1/2 per cent in 2018 and 2019.
In Canada, recent data indicate that economic growth has been faster than was expected in the January MPR. Growth was temporarily boosted by a resumption of spending in the oil and gas sector and the effects of the Canada Child Benefit on consumer spending. Residential investment has also been stronger than expected. Employment data have been robust, although gains in hours worked are still soft. Meanwhile, export growth has been uneven in the face of ongoing competitiveness challenges. Further, despite a recent uptick in sentiment, business investment remains well below what could be expected at this stage in the recovery. Accordingly, while the recent rebound in GDP is encouraging, it is too early to conclude that the economy is on a sustainable growth path.
During the rest of this year and into 2018 and 2019, growth in Canada is expected to moderate but remain above potential. At the same time, its composition is expected to broaden as the pace of household spending, especially residential investment, slows while the contributions from exports and business investment increase. The Bank now projects real GDP growth of 2 1/2 per cent in 2017 and just below 2 per cent in 2018 and 2019. Meanwhile, the Bank has revised down its projection of potential growth, reflecting persistently weak investment. With this combination of a higher profile for economic activity and a lower profile for potential, the output gap is projected to close in the first half of 2018, a bit sooner than the Bank anticipated in January.
CPI inflation is now at the 2 per cent target, largely because of the transitory effects of higher oil prices and carbon pricing measures in two provinces, as well as other temporary factors. The Bank’s three measures of core inflation, on the other hand, have been drifting down in recent quarters and wage growth remains subdued, consistent with material excess capacity in the economy. CPI inflation is expected to dip in the months ahead, as the temporary factors unwind, and then return to 2 per cent later in the projection horizon as the output gap closes.
The Bank’s Governing Council acknowledges the strength of recent data, some of which is temporary, and is mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 24 May 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 12 July 2017. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/04/fad-press-release-2017-04-12/ | ca | 2017-04-12T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:41+00:00 |
1256487556e1-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Global economic and financial developments have been broadly in line with the Bank's expectations. Following a deep, synchronous recession, recent indicators point to the start of recovery in major economies, supported by aggressive policy stimulus and the stabilization of global financial markets. In Canada, economic growth, the output gap, and inflation in the first half of 2009 have evolved largely as expected in the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices, and a rebound in business and consumer confidence are supporting domestic demand growth in Canada. Combined with recent information on inventory adjustments and automotive production, this suggests that GDP growth in the second half of 2009 could be stronger than the Bank projected in July. Total CPI inflation is still expected to trough in the current quarter before returning to the 2 per cent target in the second quarter of 2011 as aggregate supply and demand return to balance.
Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target.
While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Persistent strength in the Canadian dollar remains a risk to growth and to the return of inflation to target. In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 October 2009. A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 22 October 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/09/fad-press-release-2009-09-10/ | ca | 2009-09-10T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:38+00:00 |
c1df52109f47-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Inflation in Canada has moved further below the 2 per cent target, owing largely to significant excess supply in the economy and heightened competition in the retail sector. The path for inflation is now expected to be lower than previously anticipated for most of the projection period. The Bank expects inflation to return to the 2 per cent target in about two years, as the effects of retail competition dissipate and excess capacity is absorbed.
Global growth is expected to strengthen over the next two years, rising from 2.9 per cent in 2013 to 3.4 per cent in 2014 and 3.7 per cent in 2015. The United States will lead this acceleration, aided by diminishing fiscal drag, accommodative monetary policy and stronger household balance sheets. The improving U.S. outlook is affecting global bond, equity, and currency markets. Growth in other regions is evolving largely as projected in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global trade growth plunged after 2011, but is poised to recover as global demand strengthens.
In Canada, growth improved in the second half of 2013. However, there have been few signs of the anticipated rebalancing towards exports and business investment. Stronger U.S. demand, as well as the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar, should help to boost exports and, in turn, business confidence and investment. Meanwhile, recent data have been consistent with the Bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the housing market and a stabilization of household indebtedness relative to income.
Real GDP growth is projected to pick up from 1.8 per cent in 2013 to 2.5 per cent in both 2014 and 2015. This implies that the economy will return gradually to capacity over the next two years.
Although the fundamental drivers of growth and future inflation appear to be strengthening, inflation is expected to remain well below target for some time, and therefore the downside risks to inflation have grown in importance. At the same time, risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed. Weighing these considerations, the Bank judges that the balance of risks remains within the zone articulated in October, and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences this balance of risks.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 5 March 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 16 April 2014. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/01/fad-press-release-2014-01-22/ | ca | 2014-01-22T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:40+00:00 |
6a191e0ebb43-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
The global economy is showing signs of stabilization, and some recent trade developments have been positive. However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty and geopolitical tensions have re-emerged, with tragic consequences. The Canadian economy has been resilient but indicators since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been mixed.
Data for Canada indicate that growth in the near term will be weaker, and the output gap wider, than the Bank projected in October. The Bank now estimates growth of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Exports fell in late 2019, and business investment appears to have weakened after a strong third quarter. Job creation has slowed and indicators of consumer confidence and spending have been unexpectedly soft. In contrast, residential investment was robust through most of 2019, moderating to a still-solid pace in the fourth quarter.
Some of the slowdown in growth in late 2019 was related to special factors that include strikes, poor weather, and inventory adjustments. The weaker data could also signal that global economic conditions have been affecting Canada’s economy to a greater extent than was predicted. Moreover, during the past year Canadians have been saving a larger share of their incomes, which could signal increased consumer caution. This could dampen consumer spending but help to alleviate financial vulnerabilities at the same time.
Looking ahead, Canadian business investment and exports are expected to contribute modestly to growth, supported by stronger global activity and demand. The Bank is also projecting a pickup in household spending, supported by population and income growth, as well as by the recent federal income tax cut. In its January MPR, the Bank projects the global economy will grow by just over 3 percent in 2020 and 3 ¼ percent in 2021. For Canada, the Bank now forecasts real GDP will grow by 1.6 percent this year and 2 percent in 2021, following 1.6 percent growth in 2019.
While the output gap has widened in recent months, measures of inflation remain around 2 percent. This is consistent with an economy that, until recently, has been operating close to capacity. The Bank expects inflation will stay around the 2 percent target over the projection horizon, with some fluctuations in 2020 from volatility in energy prices. Meanwhile, labour markets in most regions have little slack and wages continue to firm.
In determining the future path for the Bank’s policy interest rate, Governing Council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast. In assessing incoming data, the Bank will be paying particular attention to developments in consumer spending, the housing market, and business investment.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 4, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 15, 2020. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/01/fad-press-release-2020-01-22/ | ca | 2020-01-22T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ percent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:38+00:00 |
71572b809796-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated and uncertainty has increased since the Bank released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The sovereign debt crisis in Europe has intensified, conditions in international financial markets have tightened and risk aversion has risen. The recession in Europe is now expected to be deeper and longer than the Bank had anticipated in October. The Bank continues to assume that European authorities will implement sufficient measures to contain the crisis, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks. In the United States, while the rebound in real GDP during the second half of 2011 was stronger than anticipated, the Bank expects the U.S. recovery will proceed at a more modest pace going forward, owing to ongoing household deleveraging, fiscal consolidation and the spillovers from Europe. Chinese growth is decelerating as expected towards a more sustainable pace. Commodity prices – with the exception of oil – are expected to be below the levels anticipated in the October MPR through 2013.
The Bank’s overall outlook for the Canadian economy is little changed from the October MPR. While the economy had more momentum than anticipated in the second half of 2011, the pace of growth going forward is expected to be more modest than previously envisaged, largely due to the external environment. Prolonged uncertainty about the global economic and financial environment is likely to dampen the rate of growth of business investment, albeit to a still-solid pace. Net exports are expected to contribute little to growth, reflecting moderate foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. In contrast, very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttress consumer spending and housing activity. Household expenditures are expected to remain high relative to GDP and the ratio of household debt to income is projected to rise further.
The Bank estimates that the economy grew by 2.4 per cent in 2011 and projects that it will grow by 2.0 per cent in 2012 and 2.8 per cent in 2013. While the economy appears to be operating with less slack than previously assumed, given the more modest growth profile, the economy is only anticipated to return to full capacity by the third quarter of 2013, one quarter earlier than was expected in October.
The dynamics for inflation are similar to those anticipated in the October MPR, although the profile for inflation is marginally firmer. Both total and core inflation are expected to moderate in 2012 and subsequently rise, reaching 2 per cent by the third quarter of 2013 as excess supply is slowly absorbed, labour compensation grows modestly and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Several significant upside and downside risks are present in the inflation outlook for Canada. Overall, the Bank judges that these risks are roughly balanced over the projection horizon.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With the target interest rate near historic lows and the financial system functioning well, there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in Canada. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 January 2012. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 8 March 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/01/fad-press-release-2012-01-17/ | ca | 2012-01-17T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:40+00:00 |
e80562f388af-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Recent indicators point to the start of a global recovery from a deep, synchronous recession. Global economic and financial developments have been somewhat more favourable than expected at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although significant fragilities remain.
A recovery in economic activity is also under way in Canada. This resumption of growth is supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, increased household wealth, improving financial conditions, higher commodity prices, and stronger business and consumer confidence. However, heightened volatility and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar are working to slow growth and subdue inflation pressures. The current strength in the dollar is expected, over time, to more than fully offset the favourable developments since July.
Given all of these factors, the Bank now projects that, relative to the July MPR, the composition of aggregate demand will shift further towards final domestic demand and away from net exports. Growth is expected to be slightly higher in the second half of this year than previously projected but to average slightly lower over the balance of the projection period. The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2010 and 3.3 per cent in 2011, after contracting by 2.4 per cent this year. This is a somewhat more modest recovery in Canada than the average of previous economic cycles.
The Bank now expects that the output gap will be closed in the third quarter of 2011, one quarter later than it had projected in July. Correspondingly, inflation is also expected to return to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011, one quarter later than in July's projection.
While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. Consistent with this conditional commitment, the Bank will continue to conduct longer-term Purchase and Resale Agreements based on existing terms and conditions and according to the accompanying schedule.
In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on Thursday, 22 October. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 8 December 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/10/fad-press-release-2009-10-20/ | ca | 2009-10-20T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:37+00:00 |
f538b4bbc56e-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Inflation in Canada is on track to return to 2 per cent in 2017 as the complex adjustment underway in Canada’s economy proceeds. The fundamentals remain in place for a pickup in growth over the projection horizon, albeit in a climate of heightened uncertainty.
In this context, the forecast for the global economy has been marked down slightly from the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global GDP growth is projected to be 2.9 per cent in 2016, 3.3 per cent in 2017, and 3.5 per cent in 2018. In particular, after a weak start to 2016 the US economy is showing signs of a rebound, with a healthy labour market and solid consumption growth. In the wake of Brexit, global markets have materially re-priced a number of asset classes. Financial conditions, already accommodative, have become even more so.
In Canada, the quarterly pattern of growth has been uneven. Real GDP grew by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter but is estimated to have contracted by 1 per cent in the second quarter, pulled down by volatile trade flows, uneven consumer spending, and the Alberta wildfires. A pick-up to 3 1/2 per cent is expected in the third quarter as oil production resumes and rebuilding begins in Fort McMurray. Consumer spending will also get a boost from the Canada Child Benefit.
While the fundamental elements of the Bank’s projection are similar to those presented in April, the forecast has been revised down in light of a weaker outlook for business investment and a lower profile for exports, reflecting a downward adjustment to US investment spending. Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.3 per cent in 2016, 2.2 per cent in 2017, and 2.1 per cent in 2018. The Bank projects above-potential growth from the second half of 2016, lifted by rising US demand and supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions. Federal infrastructure spending and other fiscal measures announced in the March budget will also contribute to growth. Despite recent volatility, the Bank expects the underlying trend of export growth to continue, leading to a pick-up in business investment. Higher global oil prices are helping to stabilize Canada’s energy sector and household spending is expected to increase moderately.
The Bank forecasts that the output gap will close somewhat later than estimated in April, towards the end of 2017. Underlying this judgement is the downward revision to business investment, which lowers the profile for both real GDP and, to a lesser extent, potential output.
While inflation has recently been a little higher than anticipated, largely due to higher consumer energy prices, it is still in the lower half of the Bank’s inflation-control range. Most measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent but would be lower without the impact of past exchange rate depreciation. The temporary effects of exchange-rate pass-through and past declines in consumer energy prices are expected to dissipate in late 2016, and the Bank projects that inflation will average close to 2 per cent throughout 2017 as the output gap narrows.
Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced, although the implications of the Brexit vote are highly uncertain and difficult to forecast. At the same time, financial vulnerabilities are elevated and rising, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information notes
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 7 September 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 19 October 2016.
The Bank is streamlining the content of its MPRs. The reports will continue to provide an update on developments in the global and Canadian economies, as well as a discussion of the economic and inflation outlook for Canada, and will be based on full projections each quarter. The April and October MPRs will provide additional content on issues that warrant in-depth analysis, such as the Bank’s assessment of potential output or the yearly extension of the economic projection period. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/07/fad-press-release-2016-07-13/ | ca | 2016-07-13T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:40+00:00 |
e2e60d50dd39-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¼ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.
Inflation in Canada is close to 2 per cent as temporary factors that have been weighing on inflation have largely dissipated, as expected. Consistent with an economy operating with little slack, core measures of inflation have continued to edge up and are all now close to 2 per cent. The transitory impact of higher gasoline prices and recent minimum wage increases will likely cause inflation in 2018 to be modestly higher than the Bank expected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), returning to the 2 per cent target for the rest of the projection horizon.
The global economy is on a modestly stronger track than forecast in January, with upward revisions to growth and potential output in a number of major advanced economies. The outlook for the U.S. economy has been further boosted by new government spending plans. However, escalating geopolitical and trade conflicts risk undermining the global expansion.
In Canada, GDP growth in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank had expected, but should rebound in the second quarter, resulting in 2 per cent average growth in the first half of 2018. The economy is projected to operate slightly above its potential over the next three years, with real GDP growth of about 2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, and 1.8 per cent in 2020. This stronger profile for GDP incorporates new provincial and federal fiscal measures announced since January. It also reflects upward revisions to estimates of potential output growth, which suggest the Canadian economy has made some progress in building capacity.
Slower economic growth in the first quarter primarily reflects weakness in two areas. Housing markets responded to new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures by pulling forward transactions to late 2017. Exports also faltered, partly owing to transportation bottlenecks. Some of the weakness in housing and exports is expected to be unwound as 2018 progresses.
The Bank anticipates that Canadian exports will strengthen as foreign demand increases, but not sufficiently to recover the ground lost during recent quarters. Export growth is being increasingly limited by capacity constraints in some sectors. Continued gains in business investment should build additional capacity in those sectors and in the economy more generally. However, both exports and investment are being held back by ongoing competitiveness challenges and uncertainty about trade policies.
Growth in consumption remains robust, supported by strong labour income growth. Wages have continued to pick up as expected, even after factoring out recent minimum wage increases in Ontario and Alberta. The Bank will continue to assess labour market data for signs of remaining slack.
Some progress has been made on the key issues being watched closely by Governing Council, particularly the dynamics of inflation and wage growth. This progress reinforces Governing Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target. The Bank will also continue to monitor the economy’s sensitivity to interest rate movements and the evolution of economic capacity. In this context, Governing Council will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is May 30, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 11, 2018. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/04/fad-press-release-2018-04-18/ | ca | 2018-04-18T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¼ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:36+00:00 |
4733c22b5b68-0 | The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which is being adjusted to a target pace of $2 billion per week. This adjustment reflects continued progress towards recovery and the Bank’s increased confidence in the strength of the Canadian economic outlook.
The global economy is recovering strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic, with continued progress on vaccinations, particularly in advanced economies. However, the recovery is still highly uneven and remains dependent on the course of the virus. The recent spread of new COVID-19 variants is a growing concern, especially for regions where vaccination rates remain low.
Global GDP growth is expected to reach 7 percent this year and then moderate to about 4 ½ percent in 2022 and just over 3 percent in 2023. This is a slightly stronger forecast than the one in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and primarily reflects a stronger US outlook. Global financial conditions remain highly accommodative. Rising demand is supporting higher oil prices, while non-energy commodity prices remain elevated. The Canada-US exchange rate is little changed since April.
In Canada, the third wave of the virus slowed growth in the second quarter. However, falling COVID-19 cases, progress on vaccinations and easing containment restrictions all point to a strong pickup in the second half of this year. The Bank now expects GDP growth of around 6 percent in 2021 – a little slower than was expected in April – but has revised up its 2022 forecast to 4 ½ percent and projects 3 ¼ percent growth in 2023.
Consumption is expected to lead the recovery as households return to more normal spending patterns, while housing market activity is projected to ease back from historical highs. Stronger international demand should underpin a solid recovery in exports. As domestic and foreign demand increases and confidence improves, business investment will gain strength. Employment has once again begun to rebound, and we expect the hardest-hit segments of the labour market to post strong gains as the economy re-opens. However, the pace of the recovery will vary among industries and workers, and it could take some time to hire workers with the right skills to fill jobs. The aftermath of lockdowns and ongoing structural changes in the economy both mean that estimates of potential output and when the output gap will close are particularly uncertain.
CPI inflation was 3.6 percent in May, boosted by temporary factors that include base-year effects and stronger gasoline prices, as well as pandemic-related bottlenecks as economies re-open. Core measures of inflation have also risen but by less than the CPI. In some high-contact services, demand is rebounding faster than supply, pushing up prices from low levels. Transitory supply constraints in shipping and value chain disruptions for semiconductors are also translating into higher prices for cars and some other goods. With higher gasoline prices and on-going supply bottlenecks, inflation is likely to remain above 3 percent through the second half of this year and ease back toward 2 percent in 2022, as short-run imbalances diminish and the considerable overall slack in the economy pulls inflation lower. The factors pushing up inflation are transitory, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain and will be monitored closely.
The Governing Council judges that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s July projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022. The Bank's QE program continues to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council's ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 8, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 27, 2021. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/07/fad-press-release-2021-07-14/ | ca | 2021-07-14T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance, adjusts quantitative easing program | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:39+00:00 |
77c0b249101a-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (QE) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of Government of Canada bonds.
Both the global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the scenario in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with activity bouncing back as countries lift containment measures. The Bank continues to expect this strong reopening phase to be followed by a protracted and uneven recuperation phase, which will be heavily reliant on policy support. The pace of the recovery remains highly dependent on the path of the COVID-19 pandemic and the evolution of social distancing measures required to contain its spread.
The rebound in the United States has been stronger than expected, while economic performance among emerging markets has been more mixed. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative. Although prices for some commodities have firmed, oil prices remain weak.
In Canada, real GDP fell by 11.5 percent (39 percent annualized) in the second quarter, resulting in a decline of just over 13 percent in the first half of the year, largely in line with the Bank’s July MPR central scenario. All components of aggregate demand weakened, as expected.
As the economy reopens, the bounce-back in activity in the third quarter looks to be faster than anticipated in July. Economic activity has been supported by government programs to replace incomes and subsidize wages. Core funding markets are functioning well, and this has led to a decline in the use of the Bank’s short-term liquidity programs. Monetary policy is working to support household spending and business investment by making borrowing more affordable.
Household spending rebounded sharply over the summer, with stronger-than-expected goods consumption and housing activity largely reflecting pent-up demand. There has also been a large but uneven rebound in employment. Exports are recovering in response to strengthening foreign demand, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. Business confidence and investment remain subdued. While recent data during the reopening phase is encouraging, the Bank continues to expect the recuperation phase to be slow and choppy as the economy copes with ongoing uncertainty and structural challenges.
CPI inflation is close to zero, with downward pressure from energy prices and travel services, and is expected to remain well below target in the near term. Measures of core inflation are between 1.3 percent and 1.9 percent, reflecting the large degree of economic slack, with the core measure most influenced by services prices showing the weakest growth.
As the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank is continuing its large-scale asset purchase program at the current pace. This QE program will continue until the recovery is well underway and will be calibrated to provide the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 28, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/09/fad-press-release-2020-09-09/ | ca | 2020-09-09T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains commitment to current level of policy rate, continues program of quantitative easing | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:35+00:00 |
aecde35c66ed-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is under way, supported by continued improvements in financial conditions and stronger domestic demand growth in many emerging-market economies. While the outlook for global growth through 2010 and 2011 is somewhat stronger than the Bank had projected in its October Monetary Policy Report, the recovery continues to depend on exceptional monetary and fiscal stimulus, as well as extraordinary measures taken to support financial systems.
Economic growth in Canada resumed in the third quarter of 2009 and is expected to have picked up further in the fourth quarter. Total CPI inflation turned positive in the fourth quarter and the core rate of inflation has been slightly higher than expected in recent months. Nevertheless, considerable excess supply remains, and the Bank judges that the economy was operating about 3 ¼ per cent below its production capacity in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Canada's economic recovery is expected to evolve largely as anticipated in the October MPR, with the economy returning to full capacity and inflation to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011. The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2010 and 3.5 per cent in 2011, after contracting by 2.5 per cent in 2009.
The factors shaping the recovery are largely unchanged - policy support, increased confidence, improving financial conditions, global growth, and higher terms of trade. At the same time, the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the low absolute level of U.S. demand continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada. On balance, these factors have shifted the composition of aggregate demand towards growth in domestic demand and away from net exports. The private sector should become the sole driver of domestic demand growth in 2011.
Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. Consistent with this conditional commitment, the Bank will continue to conduct term Purchase and Resale Agreements based on existing terms and conditions and according to the accompanying schedule.
In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April 2009 MPR.
The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the October MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength of the Canadian dollar that could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 January 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 2 March 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/01/fad-press-release-2010-01-19/ | ca | 2010-01-19T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:37+00:00 |
0fffbc716946-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Global economic growth has been somewhat stronger than projected, with momentum in emerging-market economies increasing noticeably. Exceptional stimulus from monetary and fiscal policies continues to provide important support in many countries. The recovery in the major advanced economies is still expected to be relatively subdued, reflecting ongoing balance sheet adjustments and the gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus commencing later this year. Despite recent progress, considerable uncertainty remains about the durability of the global recovery.
In Canada, the economic recovery is proceeding somewhat more rapidly than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The profile for growth is more front-loaded than that presented in the January MPR. The Bank now projects that the economy will grow by 3.7 per cent in 2010 before slowing to 3.1 per cent in 2011 and 1.9 per cent in 2012.
This profile reflects stronger near-term global growth, very strong housing activity in Canada, and the Bank’s assessment that policy stimulus resulted in more expenditures being brought forward in late 2009 and early 2010 than expected. At the same time, the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar, Canada’s poor relative productivity performance, and the low absolute level of U.S. demand will continue to act as significant drags on economic activity in Canada. The Bank expects the economy to return to full capacity in the second quarter of 2011.
The outlook for inflation reflects the combined influences of stronger domestic demand, slowing wage growth, and overall excess supply. Core inflation, which has been somewhat firmer than projected in January, is expected to ease slightly in the second quarter of 2010 as the effect of temporary factors dissipates, and to remain near 2 per cent throughout the rest of the projection period. Total CPI inflation is expected to be slightly higher than 2 per cent over the coming year, before returning to the target in the second half of 2011.
In response to the sharp, synchronous global recession, the Bank lowered its target rate rapidly over the course of 2008 and early 2009 to its lowest possible level. With its conditional commitment introduced in April 2009, the Bank also provided exceptional guidance on the likely path of its target rate. This unconventional policy provided considerable additional stimulus during a period of very weak economic conditions and major downside risks to the global and Canadian economies. With recent improvements in the economic outlook, the need for such extraordinary policy is now passing, and it is appropriate to begin to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus. The extent and timing will depend on the outlook for economic activity and inflation, and will be consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
In accordance with the removal of the conditional commitment, there will be no additional term Purchase and Resale Agreements issued by the Bank.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 22 April 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 1 June 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/04/fad-press-release-2010-04-20/ | ca | 2010-04-20T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent; removes conditional commitment | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:35+00:00 |
c3dc4dfb8919-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.
Total CPI inflation is at 1 per cent, reflecting the drop in consumer energy prices. Core inflation has remained close to 2 per cent in recent months, as the temporary effects of sector-specific factors and pass-through of the lower Canadian dollar have offset the disinflationary forces from slack in the economy.
The Bank expects global growth to strengthen and average 3 1/2 per cent per year over 2015-17, in line with the projection in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This is in part because many central banks have eased monetary policies in recent months to counter persistent slack and low inflation, as well as the effect of lower commodity prices in some cases. At the same time, economies continue to adjust to lower oil prices, which have fluctuated at or below levels assumed in the January MPR. Strong growth in the United States is expected to resume in the second quarter of 2015 after a weak first quarter.
The Canadian economy is estimated to have stalled in the first quarter of 2015. The Bank’s assessment is that the impact of the oil price shock on growth will be more front-loaded than predicted in January, but not larger. The ultimate size of this impact will need to be monitored closely. Underneath the effects of the oil price shock, the natural sequence of stronger non-energy exports, increasing investment, and improving labour markets is progressing. This sequence will be bolstered by the considerable easing in financial conditions that has occurred and by improving U.S. demand. As the impact of the oil shock on growth starts to dissipate, this natural sequence is expected to re-emerge as the dominant trend around mid-year. Real GDP growth is projected to rebound in the second quarter and subsequently strengthen to average about 2 1/2 per cent on a quarterly basis until the middle of 2016. The Bank expects real GDP growth of 1.9 per cent in 2015, 2.5 per cent in 2016, and 2.0 per cent in 2017.
The very weak first quarter has led to a widening of Canada’s output gap and additional downward pressure on projected inflation. However, the anticipated recovery in growth means that the output gap will be back in line with its previous trajectory later this year. Consequently, the effects on core inflation of the lower dollar and the output gap will continue to offset each other. As the economy reaches and remains at full capacity around the end of 2016, both total and core inflation are projected to be close to 2 per cent on a sustained basis.
Risks to the outlook for inflation are now roughly balanced and risks to financial stability appear to be evolving as expected. The Bank judges that the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate and therefore is maintaining the target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 27 May 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 15 July 2015. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/04/fad-press-release-2015-04-15/ | ca | 2015-04-15T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:36+00:00 |
a7750c683da1-0 | The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ½ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent.
The Bank expects the global economy to grow by about 3 ¾ per cent in 2018 and 3 ½ per cent in 2019, in line with the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The US economy is proving stronger than expected, reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the US dollar. This is contributing to financial stresses in some emerging market economies. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen. Yet, the Canadian dollar is lower, reflecting broad-based US dollar strength and concerns about trade actions. The possibility of more trade protectionism is the most important threat to global prospects.
Canada’s economy continues to operate close to its capacity and the composition of growth is shifting. Temporary factors are causing volatility in quarterly growth rates: the Bank projects a pick-up to 2.8 per cent in the second quarter and a moderation to 1.5 per cent in the third. Household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines. Recent data suggest housing markets are beginning to stabilize following a weak start to 2018. Meanwhile, exports are being buoyed by strong global demand and higher commodity prices. Business investment is growing in response to solid demand growth and capacity pressures, although trade tensions are weighing on investment in some sectors. Overall, the Bank still expects average growth of close to 2 per cent over 2018-2020.
CPI and the Bank’s core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to capacity. CPI inflation is expected to edge up further to about 2.5 per cent before settling back to 2 per cent by the second half of 2019. The Bank estimates that underlying wage growth is running at about 2.3 per cent, slower than would be expected in a labour market with no slack.
As in April, the projection incorporates an estimate of the impact of trade uncertainty on Canadian investment and exports. This effect is now judged to be larger, given mounting trade tensions.
The July projection also incorporates the estimated impact of tariffs on steel and aluminum recently imposed by the United States, as well as the countermeasures enacted by Canada. Although there will be difficult adjustments for some industries and their workers, the effect of these measures on Canadian growth and inflation is expected to be modest.
Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target and will continue to take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank is monitoring the economy’s adjustment to higher interest rates and the evolution of capacity and wage pressures, as well as the response of companies and consumers to trade actions.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 5, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 24, 2018. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/07/fad-press-release-2018-07-11/ | ca | 2018-07-11T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada raises overnight rate target to 1 ½ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:34+00:00 |
7d85aabcebec-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
The global economy is progressing largely as the Bank anticipated in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial market volatility, reflecting heightened concerns about economic momentum, appears to be abating. Although downside risks remain, the Bank still expects global growth to strengthen this year and next. Recent data indicate that the U.S. expansion remains broadly on track. At the same time, the low level of oil prices will continue to dampen growth in Canada and other energy-producing countries.
Prices of oil and other commodities have rebounded in recent weeks. In this context, and in light of shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, the Canadian dollar has appreciated from its recent lows. With these movements, both the price of oil and the exchange rate have averaged close to levels assumed in the January MPR.
Canada’s GDP growth in the fourth quarter was not as weak as expected, but the near-term outlook for the economy remains broadly the same as in January. National employment has held up despite job losses in resource-intensive regions, and household spending continues to underpin domestic demand. Non-energy exports are gathering momentum, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to exchange rate movements. However, overall business investment remains very weak due to retrenchment in the resource sector.
Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as anticipated. The factors that pushed total CPI inflation up to 2 per cent will likely unwind in the months ahead. Measures of core inflation are at or just below 2 per cent, boosted by the temporary effects of past exchange rate depreciation. Material excess capacity in the Canadian economy will continue to dampen inflation.
An assessment of the impact of the upcoming federal budget’s fiscal measures will be incorporated into the Bank’s April projection. All things considered, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 13 April 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at that time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/03/fad-press-release-2016-03-09/ | ca | 2016-03-09T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:36+00:00 |
96f27796df0b-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy has unfolded broadly as the Bank projected in its July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The economic expansion in the United States is progressing at a gradual pace. Europe is in recession and recent indicators point to a continued contraction. In China and other major emerging economies, growth has slowed somewhat more than expected, though there are signs of stabilization around current growth rates. Notwithstanding the slowdown in global economic activity, prices for oil and other commodities produced in Canada have, on average, increased in recent months. Global financial conditions have improved, supported by aggressive policy actions of major central banks, but sentiment remains fragile.
In Canada, while global headwinds continue to restrain economic activity, domestic factors are supporting a moderate expansion. Following the recent period of below-potential growth, the economy is expected to pick up and return to full capacity by the end of 2013. The Bank continues to project that the expansion will be driven mainly by growth in consumption and business investment, reflecting very stimulative domestic financial conditions. Housing activity is expected to decline from historically high levels, while the household debt burden is expected to rise further before stabilizing by the end of the projection horizon. Canadian exports are projected to pick up gradually but remain below their pre-recession peak until the first half of 2014, reflecting weak foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges. These challenges include the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar, which is being influenced by safe haven flows and spillovers from global monetary policy.
After taking into account revisions to the National Accounts, the Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.2 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014.
Core inflation has been lower than expected in recent months, reflecting somewhat softer prices across a wide range of goods and services. Core inflation is expected to increase gradually over coming quarters, reaching 2 per cent by the middle of 2013 as the economy gradually absorbs the current small degree of slack, the growth of labour compensation remains moderate and inflation expectations stay well-anchored. Total CPI inflation has fallen noticeably below the 2 per cent target, as expected, and is projected to return to target by the end of 2013, somewhat later than previously anticipated.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. Over time, some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against global and domestic developments, including the evolution of imbalances in the household sector.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 24 October 2012. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 December 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/10/fad-press-release-2012-10-23/ | ca | 2012-10-23T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:34+00:00 |
f1ff0443b2f5-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is proceeding at a somewhat faster pace than the Bank had anticipated, although risks remain elevated. Private domestic demand in the United States has picked up and will be reinforced by recently announced monetary and fiscal stimulus. European growth has also been slightly stronger than anticipated. Ongoing challenges associated with sovereign and bank balance sheets will limit the pace of the European recovery and are a significant source of uncertainty to the global outlook. In response to overheating, some emerging markets have begun to implement more restrictive policy measures. Their effectiveness will influence the path of commodity prices, which have increased significantly since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), largely reflecting stronger global growth.
The recovery in Canada is proceeding broadly as anticipated, with a period of more modest growth and the beginning of the expected rebalancing of demand. The contribution of government spending is expected to wind down this year, consistent with announced fiscal plans. Stretched household balance sheets are expected to restrain the pace of consumption growth and residential investment. In contrast, business investment will likely continue to rebound strongly, owing to stimulative financial conditions and competitive imperatives. Net exports are projected to contribute more to growth going forward, supported by stronger U.S. activity and global demand for commodities. However, the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and Canada’s poor relative productivity performance are restraining this recovery in net exports and contributing to a widening of Canada’s current account deficit to a 20-year high.
Overall, the Bank projects the economy will expand by 2.4 per cent in 2011 and 2.8 per cent in 2012 – a slightly firmer profile than had been anticipated in the October MPR. With a little more excess supply in the near term, the Bank continues to expect that the economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2012.
Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the Canadian economy. Core inflation is projected to edge gradually up to 2 per cent by the end of 2012, as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Total CPI inflation is being boosted temporarily by the effects of provincial indirect taxes, but is expected to converge to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2012.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 19 January 2011. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 1 March 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/01/fad-press-release-2011-01-18/ | ca | 2011-01-18T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:33+00:00 |
9a45cb6a27bd-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
While significant fragilities remain, global economic developments have been slightly more positive and the global outlook has improved modestly relative to the Bank's projection in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, as expected, the composition of aggregate demand is shifting towards final domestic demand and away from net exports. In the third quarter, the balance of these shifts resulted in weaker-than-projected GDP growth. Core inflation in recent months has been slightly higher than the Bank had projected, although total CPI inflation remains close to projections.
The main drivers and the profile of the projected recovery in Canada remain consistent with the Bank's views in the October MPR. The Bank continues to expect economic growth to become more solidly entrenched over the projection period and inflation to return to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2011.
Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. In its conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, the Bank retains considerable flexibility, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
The risks to the outlook for inflation continue to be those outlined in the October MPR. On the upside, the main risks are stronger-than-projected global and domestic demand. On the downside, the main risks are a more protracted global recovery and persistent strength in the Canadian dollar that could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. The Bank views all of these risks through the prism of achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 19 January 2010. A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 January 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/12/fad-press-release-2009-12-08/ | ca | 2009-12-08T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:34+00:00 |
7aa688da8720-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
Recent Canadian economic data are in line with the projections in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with accumulating evidence that the slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019 is being followed by a pickup starting in the second quarter. The oil sector is beginning to recover as production increases and prices remain above recent lows. Meanwhile, housing market indicators point to a more stable national market, albeit with continued weakness in some regions.
Continued strong job growth suggests that businesses see the weakness in the past two quarters as temporary. Recent data support a pickup in both consumer spending and exports in the second quarter, and it appears that overall growth in business investment has firmed. That said, inventories rose sharply in the first quarter, which may dampen production growth in coming months.
The global economy is also evolving largely as expected since April, although the recent escalation of trade conflicts is heightening uncertainty about economic prospects. In addition, trade restrictions introduced by China are having direct effects on Canadian exports. In contrast, the removal of steel and aluminum tariffs and increasing prospects for the ratification of CUSMA will have positive implications for Canadian exports and investment.
Inflation has evolved in line with the Bank’s April projection. The Bank expects CPI inflation to remain around the 2 per cent target in the coming months. Core inflation measures all remain close to 2 per cent.
Overall, recent data have reinforced Governing Council’s view that the slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019 was temporary, although global trade risks have increased. In this context, the degree of accommodation being provided by the current policy interest rate remains appropriate. In taking future policy decisions, Governing Council will remain data dependent and especially attentive to developments in household spending, oil markets and the global trade environment.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 10, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/05/fad-press-release-2019-05-29/ | ca | 2019-05-29T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:32+00:00 |
bf805ea02b34-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The heightened uncertainty around the global economic outlook has decreased in the weeks since the Bank released its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). With tentative signs of stabilisation in European bank funding and sovereign debt markets, conditions in global financial markets have improved and risk aversion has decreased. However, the global economy is still expected to grow below its trend rate as the deleveraging process in advanced economies proceeds. The U.S. expansion is proceeding at a modest pace, reinforced by recent improvements in the labour market. Growth in China is moderating to a still-high rate as expected, in response to past policy tightening and weaker external demand. Commodity prices are higher than anticipated, supported by improved global economic conditions and a geo-political risk premium on oil. If sustained, the latter could ultimately dampen the improvement in global economic momentum.
Recent developments suggest that the outlook for the Canadian economy is marginally improved from the January MPR. Although the economy will likely grow faster than forecast in the first quarter due to temporary factors, underlying economic momentum remains around trend, balancing domestic strength and external weakness. Private demand is now expected to be slightly stronger than projected, owing to improved sentiment and highly-supportive financial conditions. Canadian household spending is expected to remain high relative to GDP as households add to their debt burden, which remains the biggest domestic risk. Net exports have been supported by stronger-than-anticipated U.S. activity but are expected to contribute little to growth, reflecting still-moderate foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
The profile for core and total CPI inflation is somewhat firmer than previously anticipated as a result of reduced economic slack and higher oil prices. After moderating in the second quarter, total inflation is expected, along with core inflation, to be around 2 per cent over the forecast horizon, reflecting the combination of modest growth of labour compensation, an economy operating around its potential over time, and well-anchored inflation expectations.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With the target interest rate near historic lows and the financial system functioning well, there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in Canada. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 April 2012. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 April 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/03/fad-press-release-2012-03-08/ | ca | 2012-03-08T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:33+00:00 |
5e320234bbb0-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is proceeding broadly in line with the Bank’s projection in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although risks remain elevated. U.S. activity is solidifying and remains supported by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. Ongoing challenges associated with sovereign and bank balance sheets will limit the pace of the European recovery and are a significant source of uncertainty to the global outlook. Robust demand from emerging-market economies is driving the underlying strength in commodity prices, which could be further reinforced temporarily by supply shocks arising from recent geopolitical events.
The recovery in Canada is proceeding slightly faster than expected, and there is more evidence of the anticipated rebalancing of demand. While consumption growth remains strong, there are signs that household spending is moving more in line with the growth in household incomes. Business investment continues to expand rapidly as companies take advantage of stimulative financial conditions and respond to competitive imperatives. There is early evidence of a recovery in net exports, supported by stronger U.S. activity and global demand for commodities. However, the export sector continues to face considerable challenges from the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and Canada’s poor relative productivity performance.
While global inflationary pressures are rising, inflation in Canada has been consistent with the Bank's expectations. Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the economy.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 12 April 2011. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 13 April 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/03/fad-press-release-2011-03-01/ | ca | 2011-03-01T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:32+00:00 |
07ceac8610bc-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is unchanged at 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
The global economy has suffered an intense, synchronous recession and considerable excess supply has opened up. There are now increasing signs that economic activity has begun to expand in many countries in response to monetary and fiscal policy stimulus and measures to stabilize the global financial system. However, the recovery is nascent. Effective and resolute policy implementation remains critical to sustained global growth.
The dynamics of the recovery in Canada remain broadly consistent with the Bank's medium-term outlook in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies, improved financial conditions, firmer commodity prices, and a rebound in business and consumer confidence are spurring domestic demand growth. However, the higher Canadian dollar, as well as ongoing restructuring in key industrial sectors, is significantly moderating the pace of overall growth.
Some of the early strength in domestic demand represents a bringing forward of household expenditures, which modestly alters the profile of growth over the projection period relative to the April MPR. The Bank projects that the economy will contract by 2.3 per cent in 2009 and then grow by 3.0 per cent in 2010 and 3.5 per cent in 2011, reaching production capacity in the middle of 2011.
Total CPI inflation declined to -0.3 per cent in June and should trough in the third quarter of this year before returning to the 2 per cent target in the second quarter of 2011 as aggregate supply and demand return to balance. Core inflation held up at 1.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2009. The Bank still expects core inflation to diminish in the second half of this year before gradually returning to 2 per cent in the second quarter of 2011.
While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. Consistent with this conditional commitment, the Bank will continue to conduct longer-term Purchase and Resale Agreements based on existing terms and conditions and according to the accompanying schedule.
The Bank retains considerable flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, consistent with the framework outlined in the April MPR.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 23 July 2009. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 10 September 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/07/fad-press-release-2009-07-21/ | ca | 2009-07-21T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter of 2010 | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:33+00:00 |
a4e5dd636db9-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Global economic growth has evolved broadly as anticipated in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economic expansion is continuing at a modest pace, with gradually strengthening private demand partly offset by accelerated fiscal consolidation. Significant policy stimulus has been introduced in Japan. Europe, in contrast, remains in recession, with economic activity constrained by fiscal austerity, low confidence and tight credit conditions. After picking up to very strong rates in the second half of 2012, growth in China has eased. Commodity prices received by Canadian producers remain elevated by historical standards and, overall, they are little changed since the January MPR. The Bank expects global economic activity to grow modestly in 2013 before strengthening over the following two years.
Following a weak second half of 2012, growth in Canada is projected to regain some momentum through 2013 as net exports pick up and business investment returns to more solid growth. Consumer spending is expected to grow at a moderate pace over the projection horizon, while residential investment declines further from historically high levels. Growth in total household credit has slowed and the Bank continues to expect that the household debt-to-income ratio will stabilize near current levels. Despite the projected recovery in exports, they are likely to remain below their pre-recession peak until the second half of 2014 owing to restrained foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
On a quarterly basis, growth in Canada is expected to pick up to about 2.5 per cent in the second half of this year. Despite this expected pickup, with the weak growth in the second half of 2012, annual average growth is now projected to be 1.5 per cent in 2013. The economy is then projected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 2.7 per cent in 2015, reaching full capacity in mid-2015 – later than anticipated in the January MPR.
Total CPI and core inflation have remained low in recent months, broadly in line with expectations in the January MPR. Muted core inflation reflects material excess supply in the economy, heightened competitive pressures in the retail sector, and some special factors such as slower increases in regulated prices and the pass-through of previous declines in agricultural prices to consumer prices. Total CPI inflation has been restrained by low core inflation and declining mortgage interest costs, with some offset from higher gasoline prices.
Both total and core inflation are expected to remain subdued in coming quarters before gradually rising to 2 per cent by mid-2015 as the economy returns to full capacity, the special factors that are weighing on core inflation subside, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 29 May 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 17 July 2013. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/04/fad-press-release-2013-04-17/ | ca | 2013-04-17T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:31+00:00 |
b464a86c82b2-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.
Inflation in Canada continues to track the path outlined in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Total CPI inflation is near the bottom of the Bank's 1 to 3 per cent inflation control range, largely due to the transitory effects of sharply lower energy prices. Core inflation remains above 2 per cent, boosted by the pass-through effects of past depreciation of the Canadian dollar, as well as certain sector-specific factors. Seeing through the various temporary factors, the Bank estimates that the underlying trend of inflation is 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, consistent with persistent slack in the economy.
The outlook for the Canadian economy also remains largely in line with the April MPR. While a weak first quarter in the United States has raised questions about that economy’s underlying strength, the Bank expects a return to solid growth in the second quarter. This will help advance the rotation of demand in Canada toward more exports and business investment. Recent indicators suggest consumption in Canada is holding up relatively well, given the impact of lower oil prices on gross domestic income.
Despite the recent back-up in global bond yields, financial conditions for Canadian households and firms remain highly stimulative. The Canadian dollar has strengthened in recent weeks in the context of higher oil prices and a softer U.S. dollar. If these developments are sustained, their net effect will need to be assessed as more data become available in the months ahead.
Although a number of complex adjustments are under way, the Bank’s assessment of risks to the inflation profile has not materially changed. Risks to financial stability remain elevated, but appear to be evolving as expected. Weighing all of these risks, the Bank judges that the current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 3/4 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 15 July 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/05/fad-press-release-2015-05-27/ | ca | 2015-05-27T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:32+00:00 |
f01022445d8e-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.
Global growth remains solid and broad-based. In the United States, new government spending and previously-announced tax cuts are anticipated to boost growth in 2018 and 2019. However, trade policy developments are an important and growing source of uncertainty for the global and Canadian outlooks.
In Canada, the national accounts data show that the economy grew by 3 per cent in 2017, bringing the level of real GDP in line with the projection in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the fourth quarter, GDP growth was slower than expected, largely due to higher imports, while exports made only a partial recovery from their third-quarter decline. The gain in imports mainly reflected stronger business investment, which adds to the economy’s capacity.
Strong housing data in late 2017, and softer data at the beginning of this year, indicate some pulling forward of demand ahead of new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures. It will take some time to fully assess the impact of these, as well as recently announced provincial measures, on housing demand and prices. More broadly, the Bank continues to monitor the economy’s sensitivity to higher interest rates. Notably, household credit growth has decelerated for three consecutive months. The implications of the recent federal budget for the outlook for growth and inflation will be incorporated in the Bank’s April projection.
Inflation is running close to the 2 per cent target and the Bank’s core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with an economy operating near capacity. Wage growth has firmed, but remains lower than would be typical in an economy with no labour market slack. Inflation is fluctuating because of temporary factors related to gasoline, electricity, and minimum wages.
In this context, Governing Council maintained the target for the overnight rate at 1 1/4 per cent. While the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target. Governing Council will remain cautious in considering future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 18, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/03/fad-press-release-2018-03-07/ | ca | 2018-03-07T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:30+00:00 |
77588c7c4d3c-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-half of a percentage point to 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 3/4 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy has continued to deteriorate since the Bank's January Monetary Policy Report Update, with weaker-than-expected activity in major economies. The nature of the U.S. recession, with very weak auto and housing sectors, is particularly challenging for Canada.
Stabilization of the global financial system remains a precondition for the global and Canadian economic recoveries. The timely implementation of ambitious plans in some major countries to address toxic assets and recapitalize financial institutions will be critical in this regard.
National accounts data for the fourth quarter of 2008 and other indicators of aggregate demand point to a sharper decline in Canadian economic activity and a larger output gap through the first half of 2009 than projected in January. Potential delays in stabilizing the global financial system, along with larger-than-anticipated confidence and wealth effects on domestic demand, could mean that the output gap will not begin to close until early 2010. These factors imply a slightly lower profile for core inflation than was projected in the January MPRU.
The effects of the recent aggressive monetary and fiscal policy actions in Canada and other major economies will begin to be felt in the second half of this year and will build through 2010. Once the global financial system stabilizes and global growth recovers, the underlying strength of the Canadian economy and financial sector should ensure a more rapid recovery in Canada than in most other industrialized economies.
The Bank's decision to lower its policy rate by 50 basis points today brings the cumulative monetary policy easing to 400 basis points since December 2007. Consistent with returning total CPI inflation to 2 per cent, the target for the overnight rate can be expected to remain at this level or lower at least until there are clear signs that excess supply in the economy is being taken up.
Given the low level of the target for the overnight rate, the Bank is refining the approach it would take to provide additional monetary stimulus, if required, through credit and quantitative easing. In its April Monetary Policy Report, the Bank will outline a framework for the possible use of such measures.
The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in judging to what extent further monetary stimulus will be required to achieve its 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 21 April 2009. A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 23 April 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/03/fad-press-release-2009-03-03/ | ca | 2009-03-03T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/2 percentage point to 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:32+00:00 |
b52a5a1e0a11-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Both total CPI and core inflation in Canada are still expected to follow roughly the path outlined in the January Monetary Policy Report, although recent readings were slightly higher than expected. Excess supply in the economy and competition in the retail sector will likely keep inflation well below the 2 per cent target this year.
The global economy is evolving largely as anticipated, with growth expected to strengthen in 2014 and 2015. The United States is still expected to lead the acceleration in advanced economies, although recent data have been softer, largely owing to weather effects. Volatility in global financial markets has increased somewhat, reflecting buoyant market conditions in most advanced economies and increased risk differentiation among emerging markets. More recently, tensions in Ukraine have added to geopolitical uncertainty.
In Canada, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 was slightly stronger than the Bank anticipated, and upward revisions earlier in the year further raised the level of GDP. The Bank still expects underlying growth of around 2 1/2 per cent in 2014, with the current quarter likely to be softer. Exports have been a little stronger than previously thought but continue to underperform, and overall business investment has yet to pick up. Meanwhile, recent data support the Bank’s expectation of a soft landing in the housing market and stabilizing debt-to-income ratios for households.
On the whole, the fundamental drivers of growth and inflation in Canada continue to strengthen gradually, as anticipated. With inflation expected to be well below target for some time, the downside risks to inflation remain important. At the same time, the risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed. The Bank judges that the balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate will depend on how new information influences this balance of risks.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 16 April 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/03/fad-press-release-2014-03-05/ | ca | 2014-03-05T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:30+00:00 |
fbb9952f0a2a-0 | The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate, reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program. Effective the week of April 26, weekly net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of $3 billion. This adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.
The outlook has improved for both the global and Canadian economies. Activity has proven more resilient than expected in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the rollout of vaccines is progressing. A number of regions, including Canada, are experiencing a difficult third wave of infections and lockdowns. The more contagious variants of the virus are straining healthcare systems and affecting hard-to-distance activities, and have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty. The recovery remains highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations.
Global economic growth is stronger than was forecast in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although the pace varies considerably across countries. After a contraction of 2 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank now projects global GDP to grow by just over 6 ¾ percent in 2021, about 4 percent in 2022, and almost 3 ½ percent in 2023. The recovery in the United States has been particularly strong, owing to fiscal stimulus and rapid vaccine rollouts. The global recovery has lifted commodity prices, including oil, contributing to the strength of the Canadian dollar.
In Canada, growth in the first quarter appears considerably stronger than the Bank’s January forecast, as households and companies adapted to the second wave and associated restrictions. Substantial job gains in February and March boosted employment. However, new lockdowns will pose another setback and the labour market remains difficult for many Canadians, especially low-wage workers, young people and women. As vaccines roll out and the economy reopens, consumption is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of this year and remain robust over the projection. Housing construction and resales are at historic highs, driven by the desire for more living space, low mortgage rates, and limited supply. The Bank will continue to monitor the potential risks associated with the rapid rise in house prices. Meanwhile, strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a robust recovery in exports and business investment. Additional federal and provincial fiscal stimulus will contribute importantly to growth. The Bank now forecasts real GDP growth of 6 ½ percent in 2021, moderating to around 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.
The Bank has revised up its estimate of potential output in light of greater resilience to the pandemic and accelerated digitalization. The virus and lockdowns have had very different impacts across sectors, businesses, and groups of workers, creating an unusual degree of uncertainty about the amount of slack in the economy and how long it will take to be absorbed. To gauge the evolution of slack, the Bank will look at a broad spectrum of indicators, including various measures of labour market conditions.
Over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range. This is largely the result of base-year effects—year-over-year CPI inflation is higher because prices of some goods and services fell sharply at the start of the pandemic. In addition, the increase in oil prices since December has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels. The Bank expects CPI inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag from excess capacity. As slack is absorbed, inflation should return to 2 per cent on a sustained basis some time in the second half of 2022.
Even as economic prospects improve, the Governing Council judges that there is still considerable excess capacity, and the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. Based on the Bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/04/fad-press-release-2021-04-21/ | ca | 2021-04-21T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, adjusts quantitative easing program | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:29+00:00 |
fbb9952f0a2a-1 | Even as economic prospects improve, the Governing Council judges that there is still considerable excess capacity, and the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. Based on the Bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 9, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 14, 2021. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/04/fad-press-release-2021-04-21/ | ca | 2021-04-21T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, adjusts quantitative easing program | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:29+00:00 |
c701c46d96fb-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy continues to expand broadly as expected, but its dynamic has moderated. In the United States, the process of normalization of long-term interest rates has begun in the context of stronger private domestic demand. Recent data, however, point to slightly less momentum overall than anticipated. In Europe, there are early signs of a recovery, and Japan’s situation remains promising. In a number of emerging market economies, financial volatility has increased, adding uncertainty to growth prospects, although China continues to grow at a solid pace. Commodity prices have been relatively stable, with geopolitical stresses putting some upward pressure on global oil prices.
Uncertain global economic conditions appear to be delaying the anticipated rotation of demand in Canada towards exports and investment. While the housing sector has been slightly stronger than anticipated, household credit growth has continued to slow and mortgage interest rates are higher, pointing to a continued constructive evolution of household imbalances. Looking through the choppiness of the recent data, the level of Canada’s GDP is largely consistent with the Bank’s July forecast. The output gap is expected to begin to narrow in 2014.
Inflation in Canada remains subdued. With inflation expectations well-anchored, both core and total CPI inflation are expected to return slowly to 2 per cent as the output gap closes.
Against this backdrop, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. As long as there is significant slack in the Canadian economy, the inflation outlook remains muted, and imbalances in the household sector continue to evolve constructively, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will remain appropriate. Over time, as the normalization of these conditions unfolds, a gradual normalization of policy interest rates can also be expected, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 23 October 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/09/fad-press-release-2013-09-04/ | ca | 2013-09-04T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:29+00:00 |
5ce6e647a3ff-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.
Total CPI inflation in Canada has fallen as expected, reflecting the significant drop in oil prices. Core inflation remains close to 2 per cent and continues to be temporarily boosted by the pass-through effects of the lower Canadian dollar, as well as sector-specific factors.
The global economy is evolving broadly in line with projections in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The United States remains the main source of momentum in the global economy, while headwinds to growth linger in many regions. In this context, a growing number of central banks have taken actions to ease monetary conditions. Crude oil prices are close to the Bank’s MPR assumptions.
Canadian economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 was consistent with the Bank’s expectations. The oil price shock had a modest early impact on aggregate demand, and a larger effect on income. The Bank continues to expect that most of the negative impact from lower oil prices will appear in the first half of 2015, although it may be even more front-loaded than projected in January. Nevertheless, data for 2014 as a whole suggest the anticipated rotation into stronger growth in non-energy exports and investment is well underway.
Financial conditions in Canada have eased materially since January, in response to the Bank’s recent monetary policy action and to global financial developments. This easing is reflected across the yield curve and in a wide range of asset prices, including the Canadian dollar. These conditions will mitigate the negative effects of the oil price shock, further boosting growth through stronger non-energy exports and investment.
In light of these developments, the risks around the inflation profile are now more balanced and financial stability risks are evolving as expected in January. At present, we judge that the current degree of monetary policy stimulus is still appropriate and the target for the overnight rate remains at 3/4 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 15 April 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/03/fad-press-release-2015-03-04/ | ca | 2015-03-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:29+00:00 |
73ba977b5c06-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy has slowed markedly as several downside risks to the projection outlined in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been realized. Financial market volatility has increased and there has been a generalized retrenchment from risk-taking across global markets. The combination of ongoing deleveraging by banks and households, increased fiscal austerity and declining business and consumer confidence is expected to restrain growth across the advanced economies. The Bank now expects that the euro area—where these dynamics are most acute—will experience a brief recession. The Bank’s base-case scenario assumes that the euro-area crisis will be contained, although this assumption is clearly subject to downside risks. In the United States, diminished household confidence, tighter financial conditions and increased fiscal drag are expected to result in weak real GDP growth through the first half of 2012, before growth strengthens gradually thereafter. In Japan, reconstruction activity is projected to boost growth over 2012-13, although Japan’s economy will be constrained by reduced global activity and the sharp appreciation of the yen. Growth in China and other emerging-market economies is projected to moderate to a more sustainable pace in response to weaker external demand and the lagged effects of past policy tightening. These developments, combined with recent declines in commodity prices, are expected to dampen global inflationary pressures.
The outlook for the Canadian economy has weakened since July, with the significantly less favourable external environment affecting Canada through financial, confidence and trade channels. Although Canadian growth rebounded in the third quarter with the unwinding of temporary factors, underlying economic momentum has slowed and is expected to remain modest through the middle of next year. Domestic demand is expected to remain the principal driver of growth over the projection horizon, though at a more subdued pace than previously anticipated. Household expenditures are now projected to grow relatively modestly as lower commodity prices and heightened volatility in financial markets weigh on the incomes, wealth and confidence of Canadian households. Business fixed investment is still expected to grow solidly in response to very stimulative financial conditions and heightened competitive pressures, although it will be dampened by the weaker and more uncertain global economic environment. Net exports are expected to remain a source of weakness, owing to sluggish foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Overall, the Bank expects that growth in Canada will be slow through mid-2012 before picking up as the global economic environment improves, uncertainty dissipates and confidence increases. The Bank projects that the economy will expand by 2.1 per cent in 2011, 1.9 per cent in 2012, and 2.9 per cent in 2013.
The weaker economic outlook implies greater and more persistent economic slack than previously anticipated, with the Canadian economy now expected to return to full capacity by the end of 2013. As a result, core inflation is expected to be slightly softer than previously expected, declining through 2012 before returning to 2 percent by the end of 2013. The projection for total CPI inflation has also been revised down, reflecting the recent reversal of earlier sharp increases in world energy prices as well as modestly weaker core inflation. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough around 1 per cent by the middle of 2012 before rising with core inflation to the two per cent target by the end of 2013, as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed.
Several significant upside and downside risks are present in the inflation outlook for Canada. Overall, the Bank judges that these risks are roughly balanced over the projection horizon.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With the target interest rate near historic lows and the financial system functioning well, there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in Canada. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 26 October 2011. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 6 December 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/10/fad-press-release-2011-10-25/ | ca | 2011-10-25T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:28+00:00 |
83b19e2f187c-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Inflation has evolved in line with the outlook in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the target range, reflecting year-over-year price declines for consumer energy products. Core inflation has been close to 2 per cent, with disinflationary pressures from economic slack being offset by transitory effects of the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar and some sector-specific factors. The dynamics of GDP growth in Canada outlined in July’s MPR also remain intact. The stimulative effects of previous monetary policy actions are working their way through the Canadian economy.
Canada’s resource sector continues to adjust to lower prices for oil and other commodities, with some spillover to the rest of the economy. These adjustments are complex and are expected to take considerable time. Economic activity continues to be underpinned by solid household spending and a firm recovery in the United States, with particular strength in the sectors of the U.S. economy that are important for Canadian exports.
Increasing uncertainty about growth prospects for China and other emerging-market economies, in contrast, is raising questions about the pace of the global recovery. This has contributed to heightened financial market volatility and lower commodity prices. Movements in the Canadian dollar are helping to absorb some of the impact of lower commodity prices and are facilitating the adjustments taking place in Canada’s economy. While the overall export picture is still uncertain, the latest data confirm that exchange rate-sensitive exports are regaining momentum.
Meanwhile, risks to financial stability are evolving as expected. Taking all of these developments into consideration, the Bank judges that the risks to the outlook for inflation remain within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. Therefore, the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 21 October 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/09/fad-press-release-2015-09-09/ | ca | 2015-09-09T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:28+00:00 |
15073ceac196-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Growth in the global economy is expected to strengthen gradually from about 3 per cent in 2016 to 3 1/2 per cent in 2017-18, a weaker outlook than the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). After a slow start to 2016, the US economy is expected to regain momentum, but with a lower profile and a composition that is less favourable for Canadian exports. Financial conditions have improved, partly in response to expectations of more accommodative monetary policy in some major economies.
Prices of oil and other commodities are off their earlier lows and slightly above levels assumed by the Bank in January, but remain well below historical averages. Nonetheless, the Bank expects deeper cuts to investment in Canada’s energy sector than were forecast in January. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has firmed, reflecting shifting expectations for monetary policy in Canada and the United States, as well as recent increases in commodity prices.
The Canadian economy’s complex structural adjustment to the oil price shock is ongoing and will dampen growth throughout the Bank’s projection horizon. First-quarter GDP growth appears to have been unexpectedly strong, but some of that strength is due to temporary factors and is likely to reverse in the second quarter. Still, it does appear that the positive forces at work in the economy are starting to outweigh those that are negative. Non-resource exports are expected to strengthen, but their profile is weaker than previously projected, in part because of slower foreign demand growth and the higher Canadian dollar. The economy continues to create net new employment, especially in services, despite job losses in resource-intensive regions. In this context, household spending continues to expand moderately. While business investment is still shrinking due to sizeable declines in the energy sector, it is expected to turn positive later this year. The complex adjustment figures importantly in the Bank’s annual review of the economy’s potential, which has resulted in a lower estimated range for potential output growth.
The combined effect of all of these global and domestic developments would have been a modest downgrade of the Bank’s outlook. However, the fiscal measures announced in the March federal budget will have a notable positive impact on GDP. The Bank now projects real GDP growth of 1.7 per cent in 2016, 2.3 per cent in 2017 and 2.0 per cent in 2018. This new growth profile, combined with the revised estimate for potential, suggests the output gap could close somewhat earlier than the Bank had anticipated in January, likely in the second half of 2017.
Inflation in Canada continues to track largely as the Bank anticipated. Total CPI inflation is below the 2 per cent target and will likely ease further before returning to 2 per cent as the effects of exchange rate pass-through and lower consumer energy prices unwind and the economy’s excess capacity diminishes. Measures of core inflation are close to 2 per cent and continue to reflect the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.
Overall, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, in part due to regional shifts in activity associated with the structural adjustment underway in Canada’s economy. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks remains within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 25 May 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 13 July 2016. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/04/fad-press-release-2016-04-13/ | ca | 2016-04-13T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:27+00:00 |
8f5fb1739281-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1¼ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1½ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent.
Global economic activity remains broadly on track with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) forecast. Recent data point to some upside to the outlook for the US economy. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty about trade policies is dampening global business investment and stresses are developing in some emerging market economies. Global oil prices have been higher than assumed in April, in part reflecting geopolitical developments.
Inflation in Canada has been close to the 2 per cent target and will likely be a bit higher in the near term than forecast in April, largely because of recent increases in gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to potential. As usual, the Bank will look through the transitory impact of fluctuations in gasoline prices.
In Canada, economic data since the April MPR have, on balance, supported the Bank’s outlook for growth around 2 per cent in the first half of 2018. Activity in the first quarter appears to have been a little stronger than projected. Exports of goods were more robust than forecast, and data on imports of machinery and equipment suggest continued recovery in investment. Housing resale activity has remained soft into the second quarter, as the housing market continues to adjust to new mortgage guidelines and higher borrowing rates. Going forward, solid labour income growth supports the expectation that housing activity will pick up and consumption will continue to contribute importantly to growth in 2018.
Overall, developments since April further reinforce Governing Council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target. Governing Council will take a gradual approach to policy adjustments, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank will continue to assess the economy’s sensitivity to interest rate movements and the evolution of economic capacity.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 11, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/05/fad-press-release-2018-05-30/ | ca | 2018-05-30T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1¼ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:28+00:00 |
4d4cdbcbe8c0-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Global economic growth is evolving essentially as the Bank had anticipated in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The US economy continues to grow at a solid pace, although private domestic demand has proven slightly less robust than expected. Meanwhile, commodity prices have declined further. The ongoing terms-of-trade adjustments and shifting growth prospects across different regions are contributing to exchange rate movements. In this context, policy divergence is expected to remain a prominent theme.
In Canada, the dynamics of growth have been broadly in line with the Bank’s MPR outlook. The economy continues to undergo a complex and lengthy adjustment to the decline in Canada’s terms of trade. This adjustment is being aided by the ongoing US recovery, a lower Canadian dollar and the Bank’s monetary policy easing this year. The resource sector is still contending with lower prices for commodities. In non-resource sectors, exports are picking up, particularly in exchange rate-sensitive categories. However, business investment continues to be weighed down by cuts in resource-sector spending. The labour market has been resilient at the national level, although with significant job losses in resource-producing regions. The Bank expects GDP growth to moderate in the fourth quarter of 2015 before moving to a rate above potential in 2016. While bond yields are slightly higher, financial conditions remain accommodative in Canada.
In the midst of all of these adjustments, inflation is in line with the Bank’s October outlook. Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range, owing to declines in consumer energy prices. Core inflation is close to 2 per cent as the effects of the lower dollar and the output gap continue to offset each other.
The Bank judges that the risks around the inflation profile remain roughly balanced over the projection horizon. Vulnerabilities in the household sector continue to edge higher while overall risks to financial stability are evolving as expected. Taking all of these developments into consideration, the Bank judges that the risks to the outlook for inflation remain within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. Therefore, the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 January 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/12/fad-press-release-2015-12-02/ | ca | 2015-12-02T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:26+00:00 |
a113520ece6f-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
The global economy is evolving largely as the Bank projected in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, despite weakness in the first quarter, a number of indicators, including employment, point to a return to solid growth in 2016. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with ongoing geopolitical factors contributing to fragile market sentiment. Oil prices are higher, in part because of short-term supply disruptions.
In Canada, the economy’s structural adjustment to the oil price shock continues, but is proving to be uneven. Growth in the first quarter of 2016 appears to be in line with the Bank’s April projection, although business investment and intentions remain disappointing. The second quarter will be much weaker than predicted because of the devastating Alberta wildfires. The Bank’s preliminary assessment is that fire-related destruction and the associated halt to oil production will cut about 1 1/4 percentage points off real GDP growth in the second quarter. The economy is expected to rebound in the third quarter, as oil production resumes and reconstruction begins. While the Canadian dollar has been fluctuating in response to shifting expectations of US monetary policy and higher oil prices, it is now close to the level assumed in April.
Inflation is roughly in line with the Bank’s expectations. Total CPI inflation has risen recently, largely due to movements in gasoline prices, but remains slightly below the 2 per cent target. Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent, reflecting the offsetting influences of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity.
Canada’s housing market continues to display strong regional divergences, reinforced by the complex adjustment underway in the economy. In this context, household vulnerabilities have moved higher. Meanwhile, the risks to the Bank’s inflation projection remain roughly balanced. Therefore, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 13 July 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at that time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/05/fad-press-release-2016-05-25/ | ca | 2016-05-25T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:25+00:00 |
a0ded19c46ed-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Uncertainty about the global outlook is undiminished, particularly with respect to policies in the United States. The Bank has made initial assumptions about prospective tax policies only, resulting in a modest upward revision to its US growth outlook. Overall, the global economy is strengthening largely as expected and prices of some commodities, including oil, have risen. The rapid back-up in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of US fiscal expansion, has pulled up Canadian yields relative to the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In contrast to the United States, Canada’s economy continues to operate with material excess capacity. While employment growth has remained firm, indicators still point to significant slack in the labour market. The resource sector’s adjustment to past commodity price declines appears to be largely complete, but negative wealth and income effects will persist. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has strengthened along with the US dollar against other currencies, exacerbating ongoing competitiveness challenges and muting the outlook for exports. Consumption is expected to remain solid, while residential investment will be tempered by previously announced changes to housing finance rules and by mortgage rates that have risen in response to higher bond yields. Federal and provincial fiscal measures are still expected to support growth in 2017.
Bearing in mind the important assumptions embedded in its forecast, the Bank projects that Canada’s real GDP will grow by 2.1 per cent in both 2017 and 2018. This implies a return to full capacity around mid-2018, in line with October’s projection.
Inflation in Canada has been lower than anticipated since October, mainly because of declines in food prices. Measures of core inflation are below 2 per cent, reflecting material excess capacity in the economy. As consumer energy prices rise and the impact of lower food prices dissipates, inflation is expected to move close to the 2 per cent target in the months ahead and remain there throughout the projection horizon while excess capacity is being absorbed.
In the context of a projection that is largely unchanged, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. Governing Council will continue to assess the impact of ongoing developments, mindful of the significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 1 March 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 12 April 2017. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/01/fad-press-release-2017-01-18/ | ca | 2017-01-18T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:25+00:00 |
331fd77ea307-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Inflation in Canada is evolving broadly as expected. Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range as the disinflationary effects of economic slack and low consumer energy prices are only partially offset by the inflationary impact of the lower Canadian dollar on the prices of imported goods. As all of these factors dissipate, the Bank expects inflation will rise to about 2 per cent by early 2017. Measures of core inflation should remain close to 2 per cent.
The dynamics of the global economy are broadly as anticipated in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with diverging economic prospects and shifting terms of trade. China continues its transition to a more sustainable growth path and the expansion in the United States is on track, despite temporary weakness in the fourth quarter of 2015. The U.S. Federal Reserve has begun to gradually withdraw its exceptional monetary stimulus. While risks to the world outlook remain and have been reflected in sharp price movements in a range of asset classes, global growth is expected to trend upwards beginning in 2016.
Prices for oil and other commodities have declined further and this represents a setback for the Canadian economy. GDP growth likely stalled in the fourth quarter of 2015, pulled down by temporary softness in the U.S. economy, weaker business investment and several other temporary factors. The Bank now expects the economy’s return to above-potential growth to be delayed until the second quarter of 2016. The protracted process of reorientation towards non-resource activity is underway, helped by stronger U.S. demand, the lower Canadian dollar, and accommodative monetary and financial conditions. National employment remains resilient despite job losses in the resource sector and household spending continues to expand.
The Bank projects Canada’s economy will grow by about 1 1/2 per cent in 2016 and 2 1/2 per cent in 2017. The complex nature of the ongoing structural adjustment makes the outlook for demand and potential output highly uncertain. The Bank’s current base case projection shows the output gap closing later than was anticipated in October, around the end of 2017. However, the Bank has not yet incorporated the positive impact of fiscal measures expected in the next federal budget.
All things considered, therefore, the risks to the profile for inflation are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities continue to edge higher, as expected. The Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 9 March 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 13 April 2016. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/01/fad-press-release-2016-01-20/ | ca | 2016-01-20T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:24+00:00 |
bbd76e5c2844-0 | The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at a target pace of $3 billion per week.
With COVID-19 cases falling in many countries and vaccine coverage rising, global economic activity is picking up. Growth remains uneven across regions, however. The US is experiencing a strong consumer-driven recovery and a rebound is beginning to take shape in Europe, while a resurgence of the virus is hampering the recovery in some emerging market economies. Financial conditions remain highly accommodative, reflected in broadly higher asset prices. Commodity prices have risen further, notably oil, and the Canadian dollar has seen a further appreciation.
In Canada, economic developments have been broadly in line with the outlook in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Despite the second wave of the virus, first quarter GDP growth came in at a robust 5.6 per cent. While this was lower than the Bank had projected, the underlying details indicate rising confidence and resilient demand. Household spending was stronger than expected, while businesses drew down inventories and increased imports more than anticipated. Renewed lockdowns associated with the third wave are dampening economic activity in the second quarter, largely as anticipated. Recent jobs data show that workers in contact-sensitive sectors have once again been most affected. The employment rate remains well below its pre-pandemic level, with low wage workers, youth and women continuing to bear the brunt of job losses.
With vaccinations proceeding at a faster pace, and provincial containment restrictions on an easing path over the summer, the Canadian economy is expected to rebound strongly, led by consumer spending. Housing market activity is expected to moderate but remain elevated. Strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices should also lead to a solid recovery in exports and business investment. Despite progress on vaccinations, there continues to be uncertainty about the evolution of new COVID-19 variants. More broadly, the risks to the inflation outlook identified in the April MPR remain relevant.
As expected, CPI inflation has risen to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range, due largely to base-year effects and much stronger gasoline prices. Core measures of inflation have also risen, due primarily to temporary factors and base year effects, but by much less than CPI inflation. While CPI inflation will likely remain near 3 percent through the summer, it is expected to ease later in the year, as base-year effects diminish and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure.
The Governing Council judges that there remains considerable excess capacity in the Canadian economy, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s April projection, this happens sometime in the second half of 2022. The Bank is continuing its QE program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 14, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/06/fad-press-release-2021-06-09/ | ca | 2021-06-09T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, continues quantitative easing | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:25+00:00 |
5079790536aa-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy is expected to expand modestly in 2013, although its near-term dynamic has changed and the composition of growth is now slightly less favourable for Canada. The U.S. economy is softer than expected but as fiscal headwinds dissipate and household deleveraging ends, growth should accelerate through 2014 and 2015. The nascent recovery in Europe, while modest, has surprised on the upside. China’s economy is showing renewed momentum, while growth in a number of other emerging market economies has slowed as their financial conditions have tightened. Overall, the global economy is projected to grow by 2.8 per cent in 2013 and accelerate to 3.4 per cent in 2014 and 3.6 per cent in 2015.
In Canada, uncertain global and domestic economic conditions are delaying the pick-up in exports and business investment, leaving the level of economic activity lower than the Bank had been expecting. While household spending remains solid, slower growth of household credit and higher mortgage interest rates point to a gradual unwinding of household imbalances. The Bank expects that a better balance between domestic and foreign demand will be achieved over time and that growth will become more self-sustaining. Real GDP growth is projected to increase from 1.6 per cent in 2013 to 2.3 per cent in 2014 and 2.6 per cent in 2015. The Bank expects that the economy will return gradually to full production capacity, around the end of 2015.
Inflation in Canada has remained low in recent months, reflecting the significant slack in the economy, heightened competition in the retail sector, and other sector-specific factors. With larger and more persistent excess supply in the economy, both total CPI and core inflation are expected to return more gradually to 2 per cent, around the end of 2015.
Although the Bank considers the risks around its projected inflation path to be balanced, the fact that inflation has been persistently below target means that downside risks to inflation assume increasing importance. However, the Bank must also take into consideration the risk of exacerbating already-elevated household imbalances. Weighing these considerations, the Bank judges that the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 December 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 22 January 2014. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/10/fad-press-release-2013-10-23/ | ca | 2013-10-23T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:24+00:00 |
35d1c975f045-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Uncertainty around the global economic outlook has increased in the weeks since the Bank released its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Conditions in global financial markets have deteriorated as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe has deepened. Additional measures will be required to contain the European crisis. The recession in Europe is now expected to be more pronounced than the Bank had anticipated in October, as a result of increased deleveraging and tighter financial conditions, as well as necessary fiscal austerity and structural reforms.
Recent economic data suggest that growth in the United States has been slightly more robust than anticipated, largely as a result of continued vigour in consumer spending and business investment. Nonetheless, household deleveraging, fiscal consolidation and negative spillover effects from the European crisis are all expected to weigh on U.S. growth. Growth in China and other emerging-market economies continues to be strong, although there are signs that it is moderating to a more sustainable pace in response to weaker external demand and the lagged effects of past policy tightening.
On balance, recent economic indicators in Canada suggest that growth in the second half of this year is slightly stronger than the Bank projected in October. Household expenditures have more momentum than had been expected and business investment remains solid. Going forward, the weaker external outlook is expected to dampen GDP growth in Canada through financial, confidence and trade channels. The economy also continues to face competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Although total CPI inflation has been slightly higher than projected, the Bank continues to expect the inflation rate to decline as a result of reduced pressures from food and energy prices and ongoing excess supply in the economy. Core inflation has also been slightly firmer than projected and is expected to ease as the output gap persists well into 2013.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With the target interest rate near historic lows and the financial system functioning well, there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in Canada. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 January 2012. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 January 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/12/fad-press-release-2011-12-06/ | ca | 2011-12-06T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:22+00:00 |
87e7e6a618c8-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent.
Incoming data confirm the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. This impact appears to have peaked, although uncertainty about how the recovery will unfold remains high. Massive policy responses in advanced economies have helped to replace lost income and cushion the effect of economic shutdowns. Financial conditions have improved, and commodity prices have risen in recent weeks after falling sharply earlier this year. Because different countries’ containment measures will be lifted at different times, the global recovery likely will be protracted and uneven.
In Canada, the pandemic has led to historic losses in output and jobs. Still, the Canadian economy appears to have avoided the most severe scenario presented in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The level of real GDP in the first quarter was 2.1 percent lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019. This GDP reading is in the middle of the Bank’s April monitoring range and reflects the combined impact of falling oil prices and widespread shutdowns. The level of real GDP in the second quarter will likely show a further decline of 10-20 percent, as continued shutdowns and sharply lower investment in the energy sector take a further toll on output. Decisive and targeted fiscal actions, combined with lower interest rates, are buffering the impact of the shutdown on disposable income and helping to lay the foundation for economic recovery. While the outlook for the second half of 2020 and beyond remains heavily clouded, the Bank expects the economy to resume growth in the third quarter.
CPI inflation has decreased to near zero, as anticipated in the April MPR, mainly due to lower prices for gasoline. The Bank expects temporary factors to keep CPI inflation below the target band in the near term. The Bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the CPI, and are now between 1.6 and 2 percent.
The Bank’s programs to improve market function are having their intended effect. After significant strains in March, short-term funding conditions have improved. Therefore, the Bank is reducing the frequency of its term repo operations to once per week, and its program to purchase bankers’ acceptances to bi-weekly operations. The Bank stands ready to adjust these programs if market conditions warrant. Meanwhile, its other programs to purchase federal, provincial, and corporate debt are continuing at their present frequency and scope.
As market function improves and containment restrictions ease, the Bank’s focus will shift to supporting the resumption of growth in output and employment. The Bank maintains its commitment to continue large-scale asset purchases until the economic recovery is well underway. Any further policy actions would be calibrated to provide the necessary degree of monetary policy accommodation required to achieve the inflation target.
Information notes
Tiff Macklem assumes his role as the Bank’s tenth Governor today. He participated as an observer in Governing Council’s deliberations for this policy interest rate decision and endorses the rate decision and measures announced in this press release.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 15, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/06/fad-press-release-2020-06-03/ | ca | 2020-06-03T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains target for the overnight rate, scales back some market operations as financial conditions improve | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:24+00:00 |
3e2c8e634415-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Inflation in Canada is close to the 2 per cent target. Core inflation rose more rapidly than was expected in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), mainly reflecting unexpected sector-specific factors. Total CPI inflation is evolving broadly as expected, as the pickup in core inflation was largely offset by lower energy prices. Underlying inflationary pressures are muted, given the persistent slack in the economy and the continued effects of competition in the retail sector.
Although the outlook remains for stronger momentum in the global economy in 2015 and 2016, the profile is weaker than in July and growth prospects are diverging across regions. Persistent headwinds continue to buffet most economies and growth remains reliant on exceptional policy stimulus. Against a background of ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and lower confidence, energy prices have declined and there has been a significant correction in global financial markets, resulting in lower government bond yields. Despite weakness elsewhere, the U.S. economy is gaining traction, particularly in sectors that are beneficial to Canada’s export prospects. The U.S. dollar has strengthened against other major currencies, including the Canadian dollar.
In this context, Canada’s exports have begun to respond. However, business investment remains weak. Meanwhile, the housing market and consumer spending are showing renewed vigour and auto sales have reached record highs, all fuelled by very low borrowing rates. The lower terms of trade will have a tempering effect on income.
Canada’s real GDP growth is projected to average close to 2 1/2 per cent over the next year before slowing gradually to 2 per cent by the end of 2016, roughly the estimated growth rate of potential output. As global headwinds recede, confidence in the sustainability of domestic and global demand should improve and business investment should pick up. Together with a moderation in the growth of household spending, this is expected to gradually return Canada’s economy to a more balanced growth path. As the economy reaches its full capacity in the second half of 2016, both core and total CPI inflation are projected to be about 2 per cent on a sustained basis.
Weighing all of these factors, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, the financial stability risks associated with household imbalances are edging higher. Overall, the balance of risks falls within the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate and therefore the target for the overnight rate remains at 1 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 3 December 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 21 January 2015. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/10/fad-press-release-2014-10-22/ | ca | 2014-10-22T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:22+00:00 |
f1477f80fa0f-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ½ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent.
CPI inflation moved up to 3 per cent in July. This was higher than expected, in large part because of a jump in the airfare component of the consumer price index. The Bank expects CPI inflation to move back towards 2 per cent in early 2019, as the effects of past increases in gasoline prices dissipate. The Bank’s core measures of inflation remain firmly around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that has been operating near capacity for some time. Wage growth remains moderate.
Recent data on the global economy have been consistent with the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projections. The US economy is particularly robust, with strong consumer spending and business investment. Elevated trade tensions remain a key risk to the global outlook and are pulling some commodity prices lower. Meanwhile, financial stresses have intensified in certain emerging market economies, but with limited spillovers to other countries.
The Canadian economy is evolving closely in line with the Bank’s July projection for growth to average near potential. Following growth of 1.4 per cent in the first quarter, GDP rebounded by 2.9 per cent in the second quarter, as the Bank had forecast. GDP growth is expected to slow temporarily in the third quarter, mainly because of further fluctuations in energy production and exports.
While uncertainty about trade policies continues to weigh on businesses, the rotation of demand towards business investment and exports is proceeding. Despite choppiness in the data, both business investment and exports have been growing solidly for several quarters. Meanwhile, activity in the housing market is beginning to stabilize as households adjust to higher interest rates and changes in housing policies. Continuing gains in employment and labour income are helping to support consumption. As past interest rate increases work their way through the economy, credit growth has moderated and the household debt-to-income ratio is beginning to edge down.
Recent data reinforce Governing Council’s assessment that higher interest rates will be warranted to achieve the inflation target. We will continue to take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data. In particular, the Bank continues to gauge the economy’s reaction to higher interest rates. The Bank is also monitoring closely the course of NAFTA negotiations and other trade policy developments, and their impact on the inflation outlook.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 24, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/09/fad-press-release-2018-09-05/ | ca | 2018-09-05T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ½ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:23+00:00 |
5ae9ed93f31e-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
The global economic expansion is moderating largely as expected, but signs are emerging that trade conflicts are weighing more heavily on global demand. Recent encouraging developments at the G20 meetings are a reminder that there are upside as well as downside risks around trade policy. Growth in major advanced economies has slowed, although activity in the United States remains above potential.
Oil prices have fallen sharply since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting a combination of geopolitical developments, uncertainty about global growth prospects, and expansion of U.S. shale oil production. Benchmarks for western Canadian oil – both heavy and, more recently, light – have been pulled down even further by transportation constraints and a buildup of inventories. In light of these developments and associated cutbacks in production, activity in Canada’s energy sector will likely be materially weaker than expected.
The Canadian economy as a whole grew in line with the Bank’s projection in the third quarter, although data suggest less momentum going into the fourth quarter. Business investment fell in the third quarter, in large part due to heightened trade uncertainty during the summer. Business investment outside the energy sector is expected to strengthen with the signing of the USMCA, new federal government tax measures, and ongoing capacity constraints. Along with strong foreign demand, this increase in productive capacity should support continued growth in exports.
Household credit and regional housing markets appear to be stabilizing following a significant slowdown in recent quarters. The Bank continues to monitor the impact on both builders and buyers of tighter mortgage rules, regional housing policy changes, and higher interest rates.
Inflation has been evolving as expected and the Bank’s core measures are all tracking 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that has been operating close to its capacity. CPI inflation, at 2.4 per cent in October, is just above target but is expected to ease in coming months by more than the Bank had previously forecast, due to lower gasoline prices. Downward historical revisions by Statistics Canada to GDP, together with recent macroeconomic developments, indicate there may be additional room for non-inflationary growth. The Bank will reassess all of these factors in its new projection for the January MPR.
Weighing all of these developments, Governing Council continues to judge that the policy interest rate will need to rise into a neutral range to achieve the inflation target. The appropriate pace of rate increases will depend on a number of factors. These include the effect of higher interest rates on consumption and housing, and global trade policy developments. The persistence of the oil price shock, the evolution of business investment, and the Bank’s assessment of the economy’s capacity will also factor importantly into our decisions about the future stance of monetary policy.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 9, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/12/fad-press-release-2018-12-05/ | ca | 2018-12-05T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:21+00:00 |
0f8f92def6d5-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Total CPI inflation in Canada has been around 1 per cent in recent months, reflecting year-over-year price declines for consumer energy products. Core inflation has been close to 2 per cent, with disinflationary pressures from economic slack being offset by transitory effects of the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar and some sector-specific factors. Setting aside these transitory effects, the Bank judges that the underlying trend in inflation is about 1.5 to 1.7 per cent.
Global growth faltered in early 2015, principally in the United States and China. Recent indicators suggest a rebound in the U.S. economy in the second half of this year, and growth is expected to be solid through the projection. In contrast, China is slowing amid an ongoing process of rebalancing to a more sustainable growth path. This has pulled down prices of certain commodities that are important to Canada’s exports. Financial conditions in major economies remain very accommodative and continue to provide much-needed support to economic activity. Global growth is expected to strengthen over the second half of 2015, averaging about 3 per cent for the year, and accelerate to around 3 1/2 per cent in 2016 and 2017.
The Bank’s estimate of growth in Canada in 2015 has been marked down considerably from its April projection. The downward revision reflects further downgrades of business investment plans in the energy sector, as well as weaker-than-expected exports of non-energy commodities and non-commodities. Real GDP is now projected to have contracted modestly in the first half of the year, resulting in higher excess capacity and additional downward pressure on inflation.
The Bank expects growth to resume in the third quarter and begin to exceed potential again in the fourth quarter, led by the non-resource sectors of Canada’s economy. Outside the energy-producing regions, consumer confidence remains high and labour markets continue to improve. This will support consumption, which will also receive a fiscal boost. Recent evidence suggests a pickup in activity and rising capacity pressures among manufacturers, particularly those exporters that are most sensitive to movements in the Canadian dollar. Financial conditions for households and businesses remain very stimulative.
The Bank now projects Canada’s real GDP will grow by just over 1 per cent in 2015 and about 2 1/2 per cent in 2016 and 2017. With this revised growth profile, the output gap is significantly larger than was expected in April, and closes somewhat later. The Bank anticipates that the economy will return to full capacity and inflation to 2 per cent on a sustained basis in the first half of 2017.
The lower outlook for Canadian growth has increased the downside risks to inflation. While vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances remain elevated and could edge higher, Canada’s economy is undergoing a significant and complex adjustment. Additional monetary stimulus is required at this time to help return the economy to full capacity and inflation sustainably to target.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 9 September 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 21 October 2015. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/07/fad-press-release-2015-07-15/ | ca | 2015-07-15T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:23+00:00 |
8a108d16f6e6-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
As anticipated in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the global economic recovery is becoming more firmly entrenched and is expected to continue at a steady pace. In the United States, growth is solidifying, although consolidation of household and ultimately government balance sheets will limit the pace of the expansion. European growth has strengthened, despite ongoing sovereign debt and banking challenges in the periphery. The disasters that struck Japan in March will severely affect its economic activity in the first half of this year and create short-term disruptions to supply chains in advanced economies. Robust demand from emerging-market economies is driving the underlying strength in commodity prices, which is being further reinforced by supply shocks arising from recent geopolitical events. These price increases, combined with persistent excess demand conditions in major emerging-market economies, are contributing to the emergence of broader global inflationary pressures. Despite the significant challenges that weigh on the global outlook, global financial conditions remain very stimulative and investors have become noticeably less risk averse.
Although recent economic activity in Canada has been stronger than the Bank had anticipated, the profile is largely consistent with the underlying dynamics outlined in the January MPR. Aggregate demand is rebalancing toward business investment and net exports, and away from government and household expenditures. As in January, the Bank expects business investment to continue to rise rapidly and the growth of consumer spending to evolve broadly in line with that of personal disposable income, although higher terms of trade and wealth are likely to support a slightly stronger profile for household expenditures than previously projected. In contrast, the improvement in net exports is expected to be further restrained by ongoing competitiveness challenges, which have been reinforced by the recent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Overall, the Bank projects that the economy will expand by 2.9 per cent in 2011 and 2.6 per cent in 2012. Growth in 2013 is expected to equal that of potential output, at 2.1 per cent. The Bank expects that the economy will return to capacity in the middle of 2012, two quarters earlier than had been projected in the January MPR.
While underlying inflation is subdued, a number of temporary factors will boost total CPI inflation to around 3 per cent in the second quarter of 2011 before total CPI inflation converges to the 2 per cent target by the middle of 2012. This short-term volatility reflects the impact of recent sharp increases in energy prices and the ongoing boost from changes in provincial indirect taxes. Core inflation has fallen further in recent months, in part due to temporary factors. It is expected to rise gradually to 2 per cent by the middle of 2012 as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed, labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
The persistent strength of the Canadian dollar could create even greater headwinds for the Canadian economy, putting additional downward pressure on inflation through weaker-than-expected net exports and larger declines in import prices.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of material excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 13 April 2011. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 31 May 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/04/fad-press-release-2011-04-12/ | ca | 2011-04-12T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:20+00:00 |
683b7c38db63-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic recovery is proceeding broadly as expected in the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The U.S. economy continues to grow at a modest pace, limited by the consolidation of household balance sheets. Growth in Europe is maintaining momentum, although the risks related to peripheral economies have increased. The disasters that struck Japan in March are severely affecting its economic activity and causing temporary supply chain disruptions in advanced economies. Commodity prices have declined recently but are expected to remain at elevated levels, supported by tight global supply and very strong demand from emerging markets. These high prices, combined with persistent excess demand conditions in major emerging-market economies, are contributing to broader global inflationary pressures. Despite the challenges that weigh on the global outlook, financial conditions remain very stimulative.
In Canada, the economic expansion is proceeding largely as expected in the April MPR. The economy grew at an annual rate of 3.9 per cent in the first quarter, reflecting continued strong business investment, smaller contributions from household and government spending, and a modest drag from net exports. Although temporary supply chain disruptions are expected to restrain growth sharply in the current quarter, this is expected to be unwound in subsequent quarters.
While underlying inflation is relatively subdued, the Bank expects that high energy prices and changes in provincial indirect taxes will keep total CPI inflation above 3 per cent in the short term. Total CPI inflation is expected to converge with core inflation at 2 per cent by the middle of 2012 as excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
The possibility of greater momentum in household borrowing and spending in Canada represents an upside risk to inflation. On the other hand, the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar could create even greater headwinds for the Canadian economy, putting additional downward pressure on inflation through weaker-than-expected net exports and larger declines in import prices.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be eventually withdrawn, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. Such reduction would need to be carefully considered.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 19 July 2011.
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 20 July 2011. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/05/fad-press-release-2011-05-31/ | ca | 2011-05-31T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:23+00:00 |