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# Henrietta Lacks Seems Like A Nice Person, But Not A Scientific Hero
Henrietta Lacks was a black woman who died of cancer in 1951. During her treatment, doctors took a sample of the cancer. The sample ended up with a researcher who noticed the cells were much more resilient than any other cell type then known, cancer... | Scott Alexander | 101153234 | Henrietta Lacks Seems Like A Nice Person, But Not A Scientific Hero | acx |
# Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd)
The “[wisdom of crowds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds)” hypothesis claims that the average of many guesses is better than a single guess. Ask one person to guess how much a cow weighs, and they’ll be off by some amount. Ask a hundred people and take the averag... | Scott Alexander | 99315978 | Crowds Are Wise (And One's A Crowd) | acx |
# Open Thread 262
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 101117045 | Open Thread 262 | acx |
# Berkeley Meetup On Tuesday, Special Guest Daniel Ingram
**Why:** [Daniel Ingram](https://www.integrateddaniel.info/), author of [Mastering the Core Teachings of the Buddha](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/18/book-review-mastering-the-core-teachings-of-the-buddha/), is in town and has kindly agreed to come to an A... | Scott Alexander | 100714200 | Berkeley Meetup On Tuesday, Special Guest Daniel Ingram | acx |
# Mostly Skeptical Thoughts On The Chatbot Propaganda Apocalypse
People worry about chatbot propaganda.
The simplest concern is that you could [make chatbots write disinformation at scale](https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/learning-to-lie-ai-tools-adept-at-creating-disinformation-and-propaganda-too-1.6243810). This has... | Scott Alexander | 99416850 | Mostly Skeptical Thoughts On The Chatbot Propaganda Apocalypse | acx |
# Book Review Contest Rules 2023
Sure, this seemed to go well last the last few times, let's do it again.
Write a review of a book. Any book you like - most past winners have been nonfiction, but maybe you can change that! There’s no official word count requirement, but previous finalists and winners were often betwe... | Scott Alexander | 100381556 | Book Review Contest Rules 2023 | acx |
# Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin
**I.**
In November 2021, I posted [Ivermectin: Much More Than You Wanted To Know](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ivermectin-much-more-than-you-wanted), where I tried to wade through the controversy on potential-COVID-drug ivermectin. Most studies of ivermectin t... | Scott Alexander | 96979578 | Response To Alexandros Contra Me On Ivermectin | acx |
# Mantic Monday 1/30/2023
## Happy One Millionth Prediction, Metaculus
Metaculus celebrated its one millionth user forecast with a [hackathon](https://twitter.com/metaculus/status/1595086306740256769), [a series of talks](https://twitter.com/metaculus/status/1598789944553934848), and a party:
This was a helpful remi... | Scott Alexander | 99881734 | Mantic Monday 1/30/2023 | acx |
# Open Thread 261
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 99752891 | Open Thread 261 | acx |
# Janus' Simulators
This post isn’t exactly about AI. But the first three parts will be kind of technical AI stuff, so bear with me.
## I. The Maskless Shoggoth On The Left
Janus [writes about Simulators](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/N7nDePaNabJdnbXeE/p/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx).
In the early 2000s, the early AI alignment ... | Scott Alexander | 97825611 | Janus' Simulators | acx |
# You Don't Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders
***CONTENT NOTE:** This essay contains sentences that would look bad taken out of context. In the past, I’ve said “PLEASE DON’T TAKE THIS OUT OF CONTEXT” before or after these, but in the New York Times’ 2021 article on me, they just quoted ... | Scott Alexander | 98262707 | You Don't Want A Purely Biological, Apolitical Taxonomy Of Mental Disorders | acx |
# Who Predicted 2022?
Last year saw surging inflation, a Russian invasion of Ukraine, and a surprise victory for Democrats in the US Senate. Pundits, politicians, and economists were caught flat-footed by these developments. Did anyone get them right?
In a very technical sense, the single person who predicted 2022 mo... | Scott Alexander | 97999854 | Who Predicted 2022? | acx |
# Open Thread 260
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 98334107 | Open Thread 260 | acx |
# ACX Survey Results 2022
Thanks to the 7,341 people who took the 2022 Astral Codex Ten survey.
**[See the questions for the ACX survey](https://forms.gle/H1VHtZHxgdhdm5fG9)**
**[See the results from the ACX Survey](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScHznuYU9nWqDyNvZ8fQySdWHk5rrj2IdEDMgarf3s34bSPrA/closedform... | Scott Alexander | 97947982 | ACX Survey Results 2022 | acx |
# Which Political Victories Cause Backlash?
Four years ago I wrote [Trump: A Setback For Trumpism](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/12/13/trump-a-setback-for-trumpism/), pointing out that when Trump became president, his beliefs became much less popular. For example:
More recently we’ve seen what seems to me to be a s... | Scott Alexander | 78671918 | Which Political Victories Cause Backlash? | acx |
# SSC Survey Results On Schooling Types
Taken from the [2020 Slate Star Codex Survey](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/01/20/ssc-survey-results-2020/). SSC/ACX readers are a heavily-selected population and nothing about them necessarily generalizes to anyone who isn’t an SSC/ACX reader. But you are an SSC/ACX reader, s... | Scott Alexander | 92247960 | SSC Survey Results On Schooling Types | acx |
# Open Thread 259
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 96970827 | Open Thread 259 | acx |
# 2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts
Astral Codex Ten has a paid subscription option. You pay $10 (or $2.50 if you can’t afford the regular price) per month, and get:
* Extra articles (usually 1-2 per month)
* A Hidden Open Thread per week
* Early access to some draft posts
* The warm glow of supporting th... | Scott Alexander | 95308207 | 2023 Subscription Drive + Free Unlocked Posts | acx |
# Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion
**I.**
Some conspiracy theories center on finding anomalies in a narrative. For example, Oswald couldn’t have shot Kennedy, because the bullet came from the wrong direction. Or: the Egyptians couldn’t have built the Pyramids, because they required XYZ advanced tech... | Scott Alexander | 95486802 | Conspiracies of Cognition, Conspiracies Of Emotion | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying
Originally: [The Media Very Rarely Lies](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-media-very-rarely-lies) and [Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/sorry-i-still-think-i-am-right-about). P... | Scott Alexander | 95389176 | Highlights From The Comments On The Media Very Rarely Lying | acx |
# Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest
Thanks to the 3295 of you who participated in Stage 1 of the 2023 Prediction Contest (“Blind Mode”). This is now closed. You can keep submitting Blind Mode answers if you want, but they won’t count and you can’t win.
Stage 2 (“Full Mode”) is now upon us! Your job is now to use any reso... | Scott Alexander | 95684776 | Stage 2 Of Prediction Contest | acx |
# Open Thread 258
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 95316054 | Open Thread 258 | acx |
# Even More Bay Area House Party
*[Previously: [Every Bay Area House Party](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/every-bay-area-house-party), [Another Bay Area House Party](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/another-bay-area-house-party)]*
People talk about “fuck-you money”, the amount you’d have to make to never... | Scott Alexander | 93979932 | Even More Bay Area House Party | acx |
# How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained?
## I. Technology Has Finally Reached The Point Where We Can Literally Invent A Type Of Guy And Get Mad At Him
One recent popular pastime: charting ChatGPT3’s political opinions:
Source: <https://twitter.com/pmarca/status/1606471146236694... | Scott Alexander | 93065437 | How Do AIs' Political Opinions Change As They Get Smarter And Better-Trained? | acx |
# Open Thread 257
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 94142118 | Open Thread 257 | acx |
# Take The 2022 ACX Survey!
Each year, I post a reader survey. This helps me learn who’s reading this blog. But it also helps me try to replicate a bunch of psych findings, and investigate interesting hypotheses. Some highlights from past years include [birth order effects](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/01/08/fight-... | Scott Alexander | 93705158 | Take The 2022 ACX Survey! | acx |
# Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying
Last week I wrote [The Media Very Rarely Lies](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-media-very-rarely-lies). I argued that, although the media is often deceptive and misleading, it very rarely makes up facts. Instead, it focuses on the (true) fac... | Scott Alexander | 93503526 | Sorry, I Still Think I Am Right About The Media Very Rarely Lying | acx |
# Links For December 2022
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I... | Scott Alexander | 93088743 | Links For December 2022 | acx |
# Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys
Sometimes people do amateur research through online surveys. Then they find interesting things. Then their commenters say it doesn’t count, because “selection bias!” This [has been happening to Aella for years](https://twitter.com/Aella_G... | Scott Alexander | 93247624 | Selection Bias Is A Fact Of Life, Not An Excuse For Rejecting Internet Surveys | acx |
# Open Thread 256
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 92962437 | Open Thread 256 | acx |
# Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences?
I saw this on Twitter the other day…
…and realized I had the data to fact-check it. On the [2020 SSC Survey](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/01/20/ssc-survey-results-2020/), I asked many questions about mental health, plus this one:
For this analysis I d... | Scott Alexander | 92235108 | Fact Check: Do All Healthy People Have Mystical Experiences? | acx |
# The Media Very Rarely Lies
**Related:** [Bounded Distrust](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/bounded-distrust), [Moderation Is Different From Censorship](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/moderation-is-different-from-censorship)
**I.**
With a title like that, obviously I will be making a nitpicky technical... | Scott Alexander | 81312519 | The Media Very Rarely Lies | acx |
# The Buying Things From A Store FAQ
**1: It sounds like in order to buy something, you have to enter the store with money in your pocket. But once you’re in the store you won’t be visible from the street, so couldn’t the storekeeper rob you and take all your money?**
The storekeeper is more familiar with the terrain... | Scott Alexander | 91780926 | The Buying Things From A Store FAQ | acx |
# Prediction Market FAQ
*This is a FAQ about prediction markets. I am a big proponent of them but have tried my hardest to keep it fair. For more information and other perspectives, see [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market), the scholarly literature (eg [here](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126... | Scott Alexander | 91718311 | Prediction Market FAQ | acx |
# Open Thread 255
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 91583919 | Open Thread 255 | acx |
# 2023 Prediction Contest
Each winter, I make predictions about the year to come. The past few years, this has outgrown my blog, with other people including [Zvi](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2021/04/27/scott-alexander-2021-predictions-buy-sell-hold/) and [Manifold](https://manifold.markets/ACXBot) (plus Sam and Eric’... | Scott Alexander | 91004605 | 2023 Prediction Contest | acx |
# Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs
## I. The Game Is Afoot
Last month I wrote about [Redwood Research’s fanfiction AI project](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/can-this-ai-save-teenage-spy-alex). They tried to train a story-writing AI not to include violent... | Scott Alexander | 89872533 | Perhaps It Is A Bad Thing That The World's Leading AI Companies Cannot Control Their AIs | acx |
# Open Thread 254
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 90113036 | Open Thread 254 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise
Table of contents:
**1. [Comments Doubting The Book’s Thesis](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/i/88145404/comments-doubting-the-books-thesis)
2. [Comments From People Who Seem To Know A Lot About Ivy League Admissions](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/i/8814... | Scott Alexander | 88145404 | Highlights From The Comments On Bobos In Paradise | acx |
# Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency
Go anywhere in Silicon Valley these days and start saying the word “cryp - “. Before you get to the second syllable, everyone around you will chant in unison “PONZIS 100% SCAMS ZERO-LEGITIMATE-USE-CASES SPEEDRUNNING-THE-HISTORY-OF-FINANCIAL-FRAUD!” It’s really q... | Scott Alexander | 85488768 | Why I'm Less Than Infinitely Hostile To Cryptocurrency | acx |
# Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits
Many psychiatric drugs and supplements affect GABA, the brain’s main inhibitory neurotransmitter. But some have different effects than others. Why? This is rarely a productive question to ask in psychiatry, and this situation is no exception. But if you persist long enough, someone... | Scott Alexander | 75521744 | Know Your GABA-A Receptor Subunits | acx |
# What Your Doctor Spends 80% Of Their Time Doing
"Hello, this is Dr. Alexander. My patient Jane Smith says you suddenly won't cover their Prozac which they've been on for ten years, I was hoping that was a clerical error and you could - "
"Hello! You've reached the helpline for Blue Helmet Insurance, a company dedic... | Scott Alexander | 87902536 | What Your Doctor Spends 80% Of Their Time Doing | acx |
# Open Thread 253
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 88705609 | Open Thread 253 | acx |
# Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise
**I.**
David Brooks’ *[Bobos In Paradise](https://amzn.to/3AUKtJZ)* is an uneven book. The first sixth is a daring historical thesis that touches on every aspect of 20th-century America. The next five-sixths are the late-90s equivalent of “millennials just want avocado ... | Scott Alexander | 86889708 | Book Review: First Sixth Of Bobos In Paradise | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide
Table of contents:
**1. [Top Comments](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/i/87486911/top-comments)
2. [More Tips On Getting Cheap Semaglutide](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/i/87486911/more-tips-on-getting-cheap-semaglutide)
3. [Other Weight Loss Drugs](https://... | Scott Alexander | 87486911 | Highlights From The Comments On Semaglutide | acx |
# Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate?
> *“He peacefully enjoyed the light and flowers with his love,” she said quietly, as he knelt down gently and silently. “I also would like to walk once more into the garden if I only could,” he said, watching her. “I would like that so much,” Katara said.... | Scott Alexander | 82863495 | Can This AI Save Teenage Spy Alex Rider From A Terrible Fate? | acx |
# Open Thread 252
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 87222491 | Open Thread 252 | acx |
# If The Media Reported On Other Things Like It Does Effective Altruism
**Followup to:** [If The Media Reported On Other Dangers The Way It Does AI Risk](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/26/if-the-media-reported-on-other-dangers-like-it-does-ai-risk/)
1. Leading UN climatologist Dr. John Scholtz is in serious condi... | Scott Alexander | 86461622 | If The Media Reported On Other Things Like It Does Effective Altruism | acx |
# Semaglutidonomics
## The Story So Far
Semaglutide started off as a diabetes medication. Pharma company Novo Nordisk developed it in the early 2010s, and the FDA approved it under the brand names Ozempic® (for the injectable) and Rybelsus® (for the pill).
I think “Ozempic” sounds like one of those unsinkable ocean ... | Scott Alexander | 79110254 | Semaglutidonomics | acx |
# "Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine
I wrote an article on whether wine is fake. It's not here, it's at [asteriskmag.com](https://asteriskmag.com), the new rationalist / effective altruist magazine. Congratulations to my friend Clara for making it happen. Stories include:
* **[Modeling The End Of Monkeypox:](https:... | Scott Alexander | 85968820 | "Is Wine Fake?" In Asterisk Magazine | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition
## Twitter!
This is all going to be so, so obsolete by the time I finish writing it and hit the “send post” button. But here goes:
395 traders on this, so one of Manifold’s biggest markets, probably representative. The small print defines a major outage as one that lasts more t... | Scott Alexander | 85781340 | Mantic Monday: Twitter Chaos Edition | acx |
# Open Thread 251
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 85776139 | Open Thread 251 | acx |
# The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash
Tyler Cowen linked [Milky Eggs’ excellent overview](https://milkyeggs.com/?p=175) of the FTX crash. I’m unqualified to comment on any of the financial or regulatory aspects. But it turns out there’s a psychopharmacology angle, which I *am* qualified to talk about, so let’s go.... | Scott Alexander | 84889532 | The Psychopharmacology Of The FTX Crash | acx |
# Open Thread 250
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 83974210 | Open Thread 250 | acx |
# Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States
**I. Contra Resident Contrarian . . .**
Resident Contrarian writes [On Unfalsifiable Internal States](https://www.residentcontrarian.com/p/on-unfalsifiable-internal-state-claims), where he defends his skepticism of jhana and other widely-claimed hard-to-fa... | Scott Alexander | 82765003 | Contra Resident Contrarian On Unfalsifiable Internal States | acx |
# Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences?
A tangent of [the jhana discussion](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/nick-cammarata-on-jhana): I asserted that people can’t be wrong about their own experience.
That is, if someone says they don’t feel hungry, maybe they’re telling the truth, and they d... | Scott Alexander | 83608629 | Can People Be Honestly Wrong About Their Own Experiences? | acx |
# Open Thread 249.5: Challenge Mode
This is an experimental Challenge Mode open thread. I’ll be deleting any comments below a vague and shifting quality bar, probably around the 33rd to 50th percentile of the average ACX comment. If your comment is deleted, it doesn’t mean you’re banned or should be ashamed of yoursel... | Scott Alexander | 83607618 | Open Thread 249.5: Challenge Mode | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves
[original post [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-rhythms-of-the-brain)]
---
**On What Kind Of Thing Brain Waves Are:**
Loweren [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-rhythms-of-the-brain/comment/9874786):
> In my undergrad bio... | Scott Alexander | 83156610 | Highlights From The Comments On Brain Waves | acx |
# Open Thread 249
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 82967373 | Open Thread 249 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot
*[Original post [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/my-california-ballot-2022)]*
I know I don’t usually publish on Saturdays, but I wanted to get this out before people filled in their mail-in ballots. So:
### Is Prop 31 Another Attack On Vaping?
Maxim... | Scott Alexander | 82674929 | Highlights From The Comments On My California Ballot | acx |
# ACX Grants: Project Updates
Thanks to everyone who got ACX Grants ([see original grants here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results)) and sent me a one-year update.
Below are short summaries of the updates everyone sent. If for some reason you want one of the full updates, which are longer and mo... | Scott Alexander | 81846625 | ACX Grants: Project Updates | acx |
# My California Ballot 2022
**Previously:** [2018](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/11/04/my-california-ballot/), [2020](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/j9kxl0/my_california_ballot_2020/)
## General Philosophy Of Voting
This is California, so the Democrats always win. When I vote, I mean to send a si... | Scott Alexander | 80091555 | My California Ballot 2022 | acx |
# Moderation Is Different From Censorship
This is a point I keep seeing people miss in the debate about social media.
**Moderation** is the normal business activity of ensuring that your customers like using your product. If a customer doesn’t want to receive harassing messages, or to be exposed to disinformation, th... | Scott Alexander | 54920087 | Moderation Is Different From Censorship | acx |
# Open Thread 248.5
This is an experimental mid-week visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. | Scott Alexander | 82173966 | Open Thread 248.5 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas
*[Original post [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-jhanas)]*
## I. Is Jhana Real?
This was a fun one. I think it’s the first time half the commenters accused the other half of lying.
Okay, “half” is an exaggeration. But by my count w... | Scott Alexander | 81472681 | Highlights From The Comments On Jhanas | acx |
# Open Thread 248
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 81605721 | Open Thread 248 | acx |
# Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum
### I. To The Republic, For Witches Stand
Did you know you can just *buy* the *Malleus Maleficarum*? You can go into a bookstore and say “I would like the legendary manual of witch-hunters everywhere, the one that’s a plot device in dozens of tired fantasy novels”. They will sell it... | Scott Alexander | 67354050 | Book Review: Malleus Maleficarum | acx |
# Nick Cammarata On Jhana
Buddhists say that if you meditate enough, you can learn to enter a state of extreme bliss called jhana.
(there are many different jhana states - [there’s a discussion of the distinctions here](https://religion.fandom.com/wiki/9_Jhanas) - but I’m lumping them together for simplicity. For att... | Scott Alexander | 80042945 | Nick Cammarata On Jhana | acx |
# Open Thread 247.5
This is an experimental mid-week visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. Also:
**1:** A friend who wants to do psychiatry residency in the Bay Area asks to be put in touch with past or former psych residents from Stanford, Kaiser Oakland, UCSF, or UC Davi... | Scott Alexander | 80880995 | Open Thread 247.5 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling
*[Original post here: [How Trustworthy Are Supplements?](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-trustworthy-are-supplements)]*
**1:** AvalancheGenesis [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/how-trustworthy-are-supplements/comment/9502582):
> I think th... | Scott Alexander | 78648565 | Highlights From The Comments On Supplement Labeling | acx |
# From The Mailbag
> *DEAR SCOTT: When are you going to publish Unsong? — Erik from Uruk*
Dear Erik,
Aaargh. I have an offer from a publisher to publish it if I run it by their editor who will ask me to edit lots of things, and I’ve been so stressed about this that I’ve spent a year putting it off. I could self-publ... | Scott Alexander | 80049625 | From The Mailbag | acx |
# Open Thread 247
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 80300126 | Open Thread 247 | acx |
# Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain
Brain waves have always felt like a mystery. You learn some psychology, some neuroscience, a bit of neuroanatomy. And then totally separate from all of this, you know that there are things called “brain waves” that get measured with an EEG. Why should the brain have waves? Are they ... | Scott Alexander | 76187439 | Book Review: Rhythms Of The Brain | acx |
# Another Bay Area House Party
*[Previously: [Every Bay Area House Party](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/every-bay-area-house-party)]*
Blaise Pascal said all human evil comes from inability to sit alone in a room. Your better nature - your rational soul - tells you that nothing good has ever come from attendin... | Scott Alexander | 74852396 | Another Bay Area House Party | acx |
# Mantic Monday 10/17/22
### Midterm Examination
Polls this year look bad for Senate Republicans. Pollsters’ simulations give them a 22% chance ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/09/07/the-democrats-are-likely-to-lose-the-house-but-keep-the-senate)), 34% chance ([538](https://projects.fivethirt... | Scott Alexander | 78827762 | Mantic Monday 10/17/22 | acx |
# Open Thread 246
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 78916050 | Open Thread 246 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley
*Original post: [Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/why-is-the-central-valley-so-bad)*
**1:** Several Valley residents commented with their perspectives. Some were pretty grim. For example, 21st Century Salonniere (writes [The ... | Scott Alexander | 74680368 | Highlights From The Comments On The Central Valley | acx |
# Links For October
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will ... | Scott Alexander | 77709610 | Links For October | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day
[Original post: [A Columbian Exchange](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-columbian-exchange)]
**1:** The most popular comments were those objecting to my paragraph about holidays replacing older holidays:
> *All of our best holidays have begun as anti-holidays to ... | Scott Alexander | 77117609 | Highlights From The Comments On Columbus Day | acx |
# Open Thread 245
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 77285608 | Open Thread 245 | acx |
# A Columbian Exchange
**Adraste:** Happy Indigenous People’s Day!
**Beroe:** Happy Columbus Day!
**Adraste:** …okay, surely we can both sketch out the form of the argument we’re about to have. Genocide, political correctness, moral progress, trying to destroy cherished American traditions, etc, etc, would you like ... | Scott Alexander | 75976106 | A Columbian Exchange | acx |
# LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend
We have two Southern California meetups this weekend:
* **Los Angeles** at 6:30 PM Saturday October 8 at 11841 Wagner St, Culver City.
* **San Diego** at 3 PM on Sunday, October 9, at Bird Park, [these coordinates](https://plus.codes/8544PVQ8+Q7).
See [here](https://astralcode... | Scott Alexander | 76770738 | LA and San Diego Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# How Trustworthy Are Supplements?
*[Epistemic status: not totally sure of any of this, I welcome comments by people who know more.]*
Not as in “do supplements work?”. As in “if you buy a bottle of ginseng from your local store, will it really contain parts of the ginseng plant? Or will it just be sugar and sawdust a... | Scott Alexander | 74356513 | How Trustworthy Are Supplements? | acx |
# CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference
**I.**
This Machine Alignment Monday post will focus on this imposing-looking article ([source](https://arbital.com/p/updated_deference/)):
*Problem Of Fully-Updated Deference* is a response by [MIRI](https://intelligence.org/) (eg Eliezer Yudkowsky’s organizatio... | Scott Alexander | 52847779 | CHAI, Assistance Games, And Fully-Updated Deference | acx |
# Open Thread 244
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 76152656 | Open Thread 244 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward
*[Original post: [Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/unpredictable-reward-predictable)]*
**1:** Okay, I mostly wanted to highlight this one by [Grognoscente](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/unpredictable-rewar... | Scott Alexander | 73764265 | Highlights From The Comments On Unpredictable Reward | acx |
# Universe-Hopping Through Substack
[RandomTweet](http://tweet.onerandom.com/) is a service that will show you exactly that - a randomly selected tweet from the whole history of Twitter. It describes itself as “a live demo that *most people on twitter are not like you*.”
This was the first English-language tweet I go... | Scott Alexander | 73791957 | Universe-Hopping Through Substack | acx |
# From Nostradamus To Fukuyama
**I.**
Nostradamus was a 16th century French physician who claimed to be able to see the future.
(never trust doctors who dabble in futurology, that’s my advice)
His method was: read books of other people’s prophecies and calculate some astrological charts, until he felt like he had a... | Scott Alexander | 50427121 | From Nostradamus To Fukuyama | acx |
# Open Thread 243
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 74950825 | Open Thread 243 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability
*[original post: [Billionaires, Surplus, and Replaceability](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/billionaires-surplus-and-replaceability)]*
---
**1:** Lars Doucet (writes [Progress and Poverty](https://progressandpoverty.substack.com/?utm_source=substack... | Scott Alexander | 73290360 | Highlights From The Comments On Billionaire Replaceability | acx |
# Why Is The Central Valley So Bad?
**I.**
Here’s a topographic map of California ([source](https://www.california-map.org/topo-map.htm)):
You might notice it has a big valley in the center. This is called “The Central Valley”. Sometimes it also gets called the San Joaquin Valley in the south, or the the Sacramento ... | Scott Alexander | 73111127 | Why Is The Central Valley So Bad? | acx |
# Janus' GPT Wrangling
Janus (pseudonym by request) works at AI alignment startup Conjecture. Their hobby, which is suspiciously similar to their work, is getting GPT-3 to do interesting things.
For example, with the right prompts, you can get stories where the characters become gradually more aware that they are cha... | Scott Alexander | 74015977 | Janus' GPT Wrangling | acx |
# Open Thread 242
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 73788108 | Open Thread 242 | acx |
# Bay Area Meetups This Weekend
We have three Bay Area meetups this weekend:
* **Berkeley**, at 1 PM on Sunday 9/18, at the Rose Garden Inn (2740 Telegraph Ave)
* **San Francisco**, at 11 AM on Sunday 9/18, “in the Panhandle, between Ashbury and Masonic, with an ACX sign”
* **San Jose**, at 2 PM on Saturday 9/17, at ... | Scott Alexander | 73660351 | Bay Area Meetups This Weekend | acx |
# Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness
*[Epistemic status: very conjectural. I am not a neuroscientist and they should feel free to tell me if any of this is totally wrong.]*
**I.**
Seen on the subreddit: [You Seek Serotonin, But Dopamine Can’t Deliver](https://apxhard.substack.com/p/you-seek-serotonin-but-do... | Scott Alexander | 70797304 | Unpredictable Reward, Predictable Happiness | acx |
# I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months
### I.
DALL-E2 is bad at “compositionality”, ie combining different pieces accurately. For example, here’s its response to “a red sphere on a blue cube, with a yellow pyramid on the right, all on top of a green table”.
Most of the elements - cubes, spheres, redne... | Scott Alexander | 72941626 | I Won My Three Year AI Progress Bet In Three Months | acx |
# Open Thread 241
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 72926645 | Open Thread 241 | acx |
# Classifieds Thread 9/22
This is the trimonthly (?) classifieds thread. Advertise whatever you want in the comments.
We’re going to try keeping it organized again, so please respond to the appropriate top-level comment: **Employment, Dating, Read My Blog** (also includes podcasts, books, etc)**, Consume My Product/S... | Scott Alexander | 72346723 | Classifieds Thread 9/22 | acx |
# Links For September 2022
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee ... | Scott Alexander | 70949776 | Links For September 2022 | acx |
# Open Thread 240
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial [subreddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/), [Discord](https://discord.gg/RTKtdut), and [bulletin board](https://www.datasecretslox.com/index.php), and [in-person meet... | Scott Alexander | 71886963 | Open Thread 240 | acx |
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