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# Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car?
[*This is the fourteenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several... | Scott Alexander | 37220265 | Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car? | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
[*This is the thirteenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week ... | Scott Alexander | 37177325 | Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies | acx |
# Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef
**I.**
I've [previously argued](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/23/vegetarianism-for-meat-eaters/) that meat-eaters concerned about animal welfare should try to eat beef, not chicken. The logic goes: the average cow is very big and makes 405,000 calories of beef. The average chick... | Scott Alexander | 37087258 | Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef | acx |
# What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging?
Progeria is a rare disease that makes people age unnaturally quickly. Babies born with progeria can lose their hair in toddlerhood, get wrinkles by grade school age, and die - apparently of old age - in their early teens. You can see a picture of a... | Scott Alexander | 37057161 | What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging? | acx |
# Open Thread 174
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also:
**1:** The Bay Area will be having its first post-pandemic ACX meetup in June (fu... | Scott Alexander | 36895139 | Open Thread 174 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Humankind
[*This is the twelfth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months. When yo... | Scott Alexander | 36894227 | Your Book Review: Humankind | acx |
# COVID Suicides: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
I have [an essay about this up on Works in Progress](https://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-didnt-suicides-rise-during-covid/), tell me what you think. | Scott Alexander | 36893798 | COVID Suicides: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# Peer Review Request: Depression
I'm trying to build up a database of mental health resources on my other website, [Lorien Psychiatry](https://lorienpsych.com/). Every time I post something, people here have made good comments, so I want to try using you all as peer review.
This is a rough draft of my page on depres... | Scott Alexander | 36839261 | Peer Review Request: Depression | acx |
# Book Review: Arabian Nights
**I.**
*[One Thousand And One Nights](https://amzn.to/3vijbbD)* is a book about love, wonder, magic, and morality. About genies, ape-people, and rhinoceroses who run around with elephants impaled on their horns. About how to use indexical uncertainty to hack the simulation running the un... | Scott Alexander | 36790166 | Book Review: Arabian Nights | acx |
# Open Thread 173
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
1: Comment of the week: [more from an expert in the field](https://astra... | Scott Alexander | 36753212 | Open Thread 173 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
[*This is the eleventh of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for severa... | Scott Alexander | 36701278 | Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower | acx |
# Links For May
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have... | Scott Alexander | 36430852 | Links For May | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars
Some of the best comments were on the history of 4Chan. Mr. Doolittle [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-online-culture#comment-1940062):
> The rise of 4chan is actually an interesting story of its own. A large chunk of the early user bas... | Scott Alexander | 36464513 | Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars | acx |
# Open Thread 172
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. | Scott Alexander | 36486192 | Open Thread 172 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Addiction By Design
[*This is the tenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months.... | Scott Alexander | 36429925 | Your Book Review: Addiction By Design | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps
Several people in the comments pointed out existing lower-cost CBT-i apps! This was news to me - I'd searched pretty comprehensively and hadn't found any besides the VA's CBT-i Coach, which is not intended for individual use. They were:
**1:** [Night Owl](https://apps.appl... | Scott Alexander | 36399568 | Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps | acx |
# Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps
Trouble falling asleep? You could take sleeping pills, but they've got side effects. Guidelines recommend you try Cognitive Behavioral Therapy For Insomnia (CBT-i), a medication-free process where you train yourself to fall asleep by altering your schedule and ... | Scott Alexander | 36087892 | Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps | acx |
# Theses On The Current Moment
*[followup to [The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-online-culture)]*
**1. The Salem Witch Hunts might not be the right metaphor**
We usually stick to the same stock examples of repression and retaliation against nonconfor... | Scott Alexander | 36227347 | Theses On The Current Moment | acx |
# The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars
*[Followup to: [New Atheism: The Godlessness That Failed](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/10/30/new-atheism-the-godlessness-that-failed/)]*
**I. Introduction**
You've probably seen these graphs before:
They tell a familiar story: America is becoming increasingly obsessed w... | Scott Alexander | 36009805 | The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars | acx |
# Open Thread 171
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Comments of the week: EHarding [points out](https://astralcodexte... | Scott Alexander | 36225863 | Open Thread 171 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson
[*This is the ninth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several... | Scott Alexander | 36173310 | Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson | acx |
# Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle
[*This is the eighth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for severa... | Scott Alexander | 36126612 | Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle | acx |
# Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences?
I recently stayed at a B&B owned by a nice elderly couple. Very, very nice. The moment I stepped in the door, they asked how my flight was, where I was from, what I did, how I'd enjoyed my three minutes of visiting their city so far, what kind of food I liked, what my favor... | Scott Alexander | 36085289 | Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences? | acx |
# Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism
**I.**
Around 1970, something went wrong. The global economy, after twenty-five years of good post-war growth, suddenly blipped.
The post-WWII-but-pre-1970 economic world - the world of “embedded liberalism” - was a pleasant place. There were corporations, but they did... | Scott Alexander | 35009467 | Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism | acx |
# If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good
Spotted [on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/stupidpol/comments/mc538i/ama_with_freddie_deboer_today_noon_est/gs2h2ry/) about the rationalist community:
> I like the culture while hating a lot of the specifics...however[,] there is no such thing as "rationality" that is free ... | Scott Alexander | 36008405 | If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good | acx |
# Open Thread 170
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. | Scott Alexander | 35904666 | Open Thread 170 | acx |
# Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet
[*This is the seventh of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for severa... | Scott Alexander | 35792583 | Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet | acx |
# Your Book Review: Double Fold
[*This is the sixth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months. When yo... | Scott Alexander | 35789659 | Your Book Review: Double Fold | acx |
# Nootropics Survey 2020 Results
Thanks to the 852 of you who took the 2020 SSC nootropics survey.
I asked people to rate various nootropics on whether they “worked” or not, deliberately leaving the question kind of vague. This is using a broad definition of “nootropics” - any supplement or taken-outside-the-usual-me... | Scott Alexander | 35699087 | Nootropics Survey 2020 Results | acx |
# Verses Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine
*To the tune of:*
**CHORUS OF EPIDEMIOLOGISTS:**
Lock down, lock down
Show mercy if you can
Lock down, lock down
To save your fellow man
**CITIZEN ONE:**
The spring is here
The sun is in the sky
**CHORUS:**
Lock down, lock down
Or thousa... | Scott Alexander | 35659297 | Verses Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
At the beginning of every year, I [make predictions](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/). At the end of every year, I [score them](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results). This year I’m really late. So here are a hundred... | Scott Alexander | 35653847 | Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021 | acx |
# Open Thread 169
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** I've updated [my Mistakes page](https://astralcodexten.substack.c... | Scott Alexander | 35611960 | Open Thread 169 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True
[*This is the fifth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months... | Scott Alexander | 35452414 | Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True | acx |
# Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are?
[*This is the fourth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of ... | Scott Alexander | 35452135 | Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are? | acx |
# Book Review: Global Economic History
[This book](https://amzn.to/3gvuxoi) is subtitled "A Very Short Introduction" and is one of the smallest books I've ever seen, about three ounces. Three ounces is exactly the amount of global economic history that my brain can absorb before turning to mush, so I was glad to find ... | Scott Alexander | 35451493 | Book Review: Global Economic History | acx |
# No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism?
I enjoyed reading a recent Washington Post article, subtitled [Why Are So Many Christians In [Colombia] Converting To Orthodox Judaism?](https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2021/04/14/converts-judaism-colombia/?itid=hp_magazine) I... | Scott Alexander | 35275108 | No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism? | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
I had many opinions on Donald Trump. I tried to back some of those opinions up with predictions about what would happen during his administration. Now that the dust has cleared, it's time to see how I did.
The summary: Of 48 specific predictions about Trump, I got 37 dire... | Scott Alexander | 35312631 | Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions | acx |
# Open Thread 168
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also:
**1:** Comment of the week from the subreddit is [by PolymorphicWetware](https:... | Scott Alexander | 35304327 | Open Thread 168 | acx |
# Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty
[*This is the third of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months... | Scott Alexander | 35215568 | Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty | acx |
# Prospectus On Próspera
Who among us hasn't looked out at the great edifice of human civilization in all its complexity, and thought "Yeah okay but I could do it better"? Centuries of utopian communes, micronations, and seasteads have dreamed of rebuilding society from first principles, free from entrenched interests... | Scott Alexander | 34436669 | Prospectus On Próspera | acx |
# [LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation
*[epistemic status: I know a little about the predictive coding side of this, but almost nothing about backpropagation or the math behind the unification. I am posting this mostly as a link to people who know more.]*
This is a link to / ad for a great recent Le... | Scott Alexander | 35138549 | [LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation | acx |
# Links For April
*[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will ha... | Scott Alexander | 34843273 | Links For April | acx |
# Open Thread 167
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Thanks to everyone who commented about multiple hypothesis testin... | Scott Alexander | 35036049 | Open Thread 167 | acx |
# Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties
[*This is the second of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for the next ... | Scott Alexander | 34926767 | Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties | acx |
# Your Book Review: Order Without Law
[*This is the first of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for the next few mont... | Scott Alexander | 34926692 | Your Book Review: Order Without Law | acx |
# Metis And Bodybuilders
Fitness researcher Menno Henselmans writes about [optimal program design for bodybuilders](https://mennohenselmans.com/optimal-program-design/). His thesis is that peer-reviewed studies prove bodybuilder lore is wrong in lots of places. For example:
> Traditional bro wisdom holds short rest p... | Scott Alexander | 34880927 | Metis And Bodybuilders | acx |
# Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
**I.**
Start with Lior Pachter's [Mathematical analysis of "mathematical analysis of a vitamin D COVID-19 trial"](https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/11/17/mathematical-analysis-of-mathematical-analysis-of-a-vitamin-d-covid-19-trial/). The story so far: some pe... | Scott Alexander | 34839701 | Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems | acx |
# 2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I’m very late). Here are [2014](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/01/2014-predictions-calibration-results/), [2015](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calib... | Scott Alexander | 34773443 | 2020 Predictions: Calibration Results | acx |
# Open Thread 166
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also:
**1:** Comments of the week: [TSC finds I am mistaken about the history of esci... | Scott Alexander | 34776817 | Open Thread 166 | acx |
# Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure
Back in a more superstitious time, people believed left-handers were in league with the Devil. Now, in this age of Science, we realize that was unfair. Yes, left-handers are *statistically more likely* to be in league with the Devil. But so are right-handers! It's only the ambidex... | Scott Alexander | 34657039 | Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure | acx |
# Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram
**I.**
What is the right dose of Lexapro (escitalopram)?
The [official FDA packet insert](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2009/021323s032,021365s023lbl.pdf) recommends a usual dose of 10 mg, and a maximum safe do... | Scott Alexander | 34574897 | Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram | acx |
# Open Thread 165
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** Comment of the week is [Vosmyorka describing political polarizati... | Scott Alexander | 34470346 | Open Thread 165 | acx |
# Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
**I.**
What is willpower?
Five years ago, I reviewed [Baumeister and Tierney's book](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/03/12/book-review-willpower/) on the subject. They tentatively concluded it's a way of rationing brain glucose. But their key results have [failed to replicate]... | Scott Alexander | 34351219 | Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower | acx |
# More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship
In yesterday's [review of](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile) *[Antifragile](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile)*, I tried to stick to something close to Taleb's own words. But here's how I eve... | Scott Alexander | 34302450 | More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship | acx |
# Book Review: Antifragile
Nassim Taleb summarizes the thesis of *[Antifragile](https://amzn.to/3chzQ8u)* as:
> Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty [and antifragility is what gains from it]. The glass on the table is short volatility.
The glass is fragil... | Scott Alexander | 34238824 | Book Review: Antifragile | acx |
# Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances
[*warning: boring inside baseball post*]
From *The Hypothesis*: [Here's Why Substack's Scam Worked So Well](https://thehypothesis.substack.com/p/heres-why-substacks-scam-worked-so). It summarizes a common Twitter argument that Substack is doing something s... | Scott Alexander | 34174081 | Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances | acx |
# Open Thread 164
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also:
**1:** Thank you for your patience as I try to read 105 entries to the Book Rev... | Scott Alexander | 34137150 | Open Thread 164 | acx |
# Book Review: The New Sultan
**I.**
If you only learn one thing from this post: it's pronounced "air-do-wan".
If you learn two things from this post, learn that, plus how a country which starts out as a flawed but somewhat-liberal democracy can lapse into near-dictatorship over the course of a few years.
I got *[T... | Scott Alexander | 33889879 | Book Review: The New Sultan | acx |
# Sleep Is The Mate Of Death
Melancholic depressive patients report that they feel worst in the morning, just after waking up, get better as the day goes on, and feel least affected in the evening just before bed. Continue the trend, and you might wonder how depressed people would feel after spending 24 or 36 or 48 ho... | Scott Alexander | 33799765 | Sleep Is The Mate Of Death | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
The current interest in forecasting grew out of Iraq-War-era exasperation with the pundit class. Pundits were constantly saying stuff, like "Saddam definitely has WMDs, trust me, I'm an expert", then getting proven wrong, then continuing to get treated as authorities and thought leaders.... | Scott Alexander | 33710409 | Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y | acx |
# Open Thread 163
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1.** Thanks to the 2,374 people who filled in the survey last week. Th... | Scott Alexander | 33705187 | Open Thread 163 | acx |
# Richard Nixon Vs. Cool
In [the highlights post on class](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-class), I wrote:
When I was in middle school, I used to wonder - there are cool kids and uncool kids, right? But suppose all the uncool kids agreed to think of themselves as cool, and to ma... | Scott Alexander | 33639623 | Richard Nixon Vs. Cool | acx |
# Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
**Introduction and review**
Last month I talked aboutvan der Bergh et al’s work on [the precision of sensory evidence](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-precision-of-sensory-evidence), which introduced the idea of a *trapped prior*. I think this concept has f... | Scott Alexander | 32649286 | Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality | acx |
# The Consequences Of Radical Reform
The thread that runs from Edmund Burke to James Scott and [Seeing Like A State](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/16/book-review-seeing-like-a-state/) goes: systems that evolve organically are well-adapted to their purpose. Cultures, ancient traditions, and long-lasting institutio... | Scott Alexander | 33433645 | The Consequences Of Radical Reform | acx |
# Open Thread 162
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also:
**1.** Several people brought up ethical issues about my post last week on DNP ... | Scott Alexander | 33367330 | Open Thread 162 | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Class
To my surprise, we have some genuine upper-class people reading this blog. Here’s what they thought, starting with [Cabayun](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-fussell-on-class#comment-1350041):
> While I hardly grew up in the upper-upper world Fussell is describ... | Scott Alexander | 33281161 | Highlights From The Comments On Class | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On March Links
[link back to the original links post: [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-march)]
On [the article about privateers](https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/unleash-privateers), local naval expert Bean writes:
> It's time for the standard... | Scott Alexander | 33234230 | Highlights From The Comments On March Links | acx |
# Links For March
*Warning: I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, so you may want to read this online instead of in an email, to catch the edits. S... | Scott Alexander | 32134985 | Links For March | acx |
# Shilling For Big Mitochondria
[**EDIT:** I’m hearing that some people are considering taking DNP after reading this post. I tried to stress very hard how bad an idea that was, but apparently it didn’t sink in. PLEASE DO NOT TAKE DNP AFTER READING THIS. I tried to cover some of the risks, but there are others I didn’... | Scott Alexander | 33086248 | Shilling For Big Mitochondria | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
**Metaculus scoring rule controversy**
Zvi considered using some Metaculus markets for his weekly coronavirus roundup, but was [turned off by the scoring rules](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQACEuWpkSyRgHC4p/covid-2-11-as-expected).
Ross Rheingans-Yoo [writes about the is... | Scott Alexander | 33060649 | Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy | acx |
# Open Thread 161
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1:** On my predictions thread, I included a prediction that expert con... | Scott Alexander | 33080614 | Open Thread 161 | acx |
# Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews
By this point you’ve probably tried Impossible Burgers, and you know that restaurants can do some pretty impressive things with them. But there are so many interesting meat dishes - what if you want something other than a burger? This market is still developing, but I live in the Ba... | Scott Alexander | 32963867 | Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews | acx |
# A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class"
**Read this first:** [Book Review: Fussell On Class](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-fussell-on-class)
Dear Republican Party:
I hear you're [having a post-Trump identity crisis](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/935776642/the-gops-post-trump-id... | Scott Alexander | 32933298 | A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class" | acx |
# Book Review: Fussell On Class
**I.**
Paul Fussell [wants to talk about class](https://amzn.to/37Fm50D).
(well, wanted, past tense, it's a 1983 book, we'll come back to that later)
He recognizes this might not be the most popular topic. When he tells people he's writing a book on class in America, "it is as if I h... | Scott Alexander | 32863465 | Book Review: Fussell On Class | acx |
# Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Since this is getting broader than just Metaculus, I'm changing the name to Mantic Monday, after an obscure word for "oracular" (and changing the preview image to a mantis, since I don't know how else to visually represent "mantic". And posting it early Tuesday morning ... | Scott Alexander | 32761479 | Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions | acx |
# A Look Down Track B
**I.**
Depression [probably has something to do with decreased synaptogenesis in the brain](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/13/what-is-depression-anyway-the-synapse-hypothesis/), maybe the hippocampus in particular. Neurons are less likely to respond to stimuli by connecting to other neurons.... | Scott Alexander | 32783193 | A Look Down Track B | acx |
# Open Thread 160
This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about whatever you want. Also:
**1:** In my post on the precision of sensory evidence, I cited a finding that depressed people had impaired color vision, ie literally saw the world in shades of gray. An alert reader sends me [a paper that discredits](http... | Scott Alexander | 32788314 | Open Thread 160 | acx |
# Movie Review: Gabriel Over The White House
I have a friend from the 1930s. I don't know how she ended up in 2021, but we’re glad to have her. She makes me watch 1930s movies sometimes, and the most recent, *[Gabriel Over The White House](https://amzn.to/2NFIS5c)* (released ~December 1932), made an impression.
The p... | Scott Alexander | 32755222 | Movie Review: Gabriel Over The White House | acx |
# Ezra Klein On Vetocracy
In my review last week of Ezra Klein's *[Why We're Polarized](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-why-were-polarized)*, I linked to a related [Vox article on vetocracy](https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21228469/marc-andreessen-build-government-coronavirus):
> In a viral essay, ven... | Scott Alexander | 32489185 | Ezra Klein On Vetocracy | acx |
# Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart
DeBoer argued that charter schools succeed through selection effects: they only take the best students. Several commenters pointed out this was illegal. It is, but they’ve found loopholes. Here's [Alexander H](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-cult-of... | Scott Alexander | 32688685 | Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart | acx |
# Book Review: The Cult Of Smart
Oscar Wilde supposedly said George Bernard Shaw "has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends". Socialist blogger Freddie DeBoer is the opposite: few allies, but deeply respected by his enemies. I disagree with him about everything, so naturally I am a big fan of his work -... | Scott Alexander | 32657034 | Book Review: The Cult Of Smart | acx |
# COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
Most health articles ask you to act on their opinions. I am specifically asking you *not* to act on mine. In a moment, I'll tell you whether or not I think Vitamin D prevents or treats coronavirus. But I'll give you a free spoiler: I am less than 100% certain of wha... | Scott Alexander | 32614906 | COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know | acx |
# Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread
So far there have been three waves of coronavirus cases in the US. The first wave was the beginning, when it caught us unprepared. The second wave was in July, when we got sloppy and lifted lockdowns too soon. The third wave was November through January, because the corona... | Scott Alexander | 32586554 | Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread | acx |
# Statement on New York Times Article
There was recently a negative article about me and my blog in the *New York Times*. Most of you already know the history behind this, but for anyone referred here by NYT, this is where I give my side and defend myself.
Like many people in the early 2000s, I started a blog when I ... | Scott Alexander | 32523333 | Statement on New York Times Article | acx |
# The Precision Of Sensory Evidence
[*semi-necessary prerequisites:* [Surfing Uncertainty](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/), [Friston On Computational Mood](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/03/08/ssc-journal-club-friston-on-computational-mood/)]
In earlier posts, I've expressed c... | Scott Alexander | 32496500 | The Precision Of Sensory Evidence | acx |
# List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC
*[previously in sequence: [List Of Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/10/25/list-of-fictional-drugs-banned-by-the-fda/), [More Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/12/02/more-fictional-drugs-banned-by-t... | Scott Alexander | 32464433 | List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC | acx |
# Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures
*[previously in sequence: [Taxometrics](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions), [Dynamical Systems](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions-34e). Epistemic status: **speculative**. This shou... | Scott Alexander | 32420505 | Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures | acx |
# Book Review: Why We're Polarized
**I.**
Ezra Klein is great. I know a lot of people throw shade on him for founding Vox. But as Van Gogh said about God creating the world, "We must not hold it against Him; only a master could make such a mistake". Ezra is a master and I was happy to be able to read his *[Why We're ... | Scott Alexander | 32376959 | Book Review: Why We're Polarized | acx |
# Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
Thanks to everyone who commented last week with prediction markets I missed. Two of them seemed to be especially interesting.
**[Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/)** is another cryptocurrency-based prediction market. It's got about two dozen contracts open, and some of them are pretty big ... | Scott Alexander | 32257019 | Metaculus Monday 2/8/21 | acx |
# Open Thread 159
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be **no-politics**, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also:
**1.** I understand Substack is still working on various concerns ab... | Scott Alexander | 32309642 | Open Thread 159 | acx |
# Journalism and Legible Expertise
I heard from a journalist yesterday after writing [yesterday's post on WebMD](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/webmd-and-the-tragedy-of-legible). They've been trying to write a coronavirus article worthy of Zvi or any of the other illegibly smart people writing on the pandemic. ... | Scott Alexander | 32279712 | Journalism and Legible Expertise | acx |
# WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise
**I.**
I started a small database of psychiatry information. It's going well. I'm grateful for all your emails suggesting changes and corrections. Sort of.
Here are some of the kinds of emails I get:
**"You listed three major side effects of this drug, but I got a side ... | Scott Alexander | 32242316 | WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise | acx |
# Book Review Contest Final Rules
Thanks to everyone who has waited patiently for more information on this.
I planned [a book review contest](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/05/book-review-contest-call-for-entries/) for last summer, which I didn’t get to do because of my unexpected hiatus. I currently have 31 entr... | Scott Alexander | 32207983 | Book Review Contest Final Rules | acx |
# Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems
*[Previously in sequence:* [Taxometrics](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions)*]*
**I.**
Imagine Alice has a chronic disease. Luckily, as long as she has a job, she will have health insurance. And health insurance provides he... | Scott Alexander | 32170113 | Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems | acx |
# Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin'
I was driving down to LA when the cops pulled me over. "You have to turn back sir, the Sphinx here eats any traveler who can't answer her riddle."
"I've trained my whole life for this" I said, and stepped on the gas. Soon I saw a Sphinx lounging in the middle of t... | Scott Alexander | 32130348 | Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin' | acx |
# Metaculus Monday
Prediction markets are the future. They're a type of trustless, decentralized expertise that often equals or outperforms official sources.
But they're not quite the present. Right now I only know of three prediction markets, and none of them live up to their potential. As usual, it’s the government... | Scott Alexander | 32042050 | Metaculus Monday | acx |
# Open Thread 158
This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also:
**1.** Thanks to everyone who commented on the amphetamines thread. The main th... | Scott Alexander | 32063826 | Open Thread 158 | acx |
# Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy
*Glen Weyl posted a reply to my post criticizing his essay on technocracy, and kindly agreed to let me elevate it into a top-level post.*
*(consider this a standing offer to anyone else I write a post criticizing to do the same)*
*I’ve very slightly edited some parts to adjust for dif... | Scott Alexander | 32011219 | Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy | acx |
# Contra Weyl On Technocracy
**I.**
I am not defending technocracy.
Nobody ever defends technocracy. It's like "elitism" or "statism". There is no Statist Party. Nobody holds rallies demanding more statism. There is no Citizens for Statism Facebook page with thousands of likes and followers. Yet for some reason libe... | Scott Alexander | 31976808 | Contra Weyl On Technocracy | acx |
# Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics
*[reposted from [here](https://lorienpsych.com/2020/10/30/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions-taxometrics/), with edits]*
**I.**
Taxometrics is the study of whether psychiatric conditions are categorical or dimensional.
Something is *categorical* if it neatly, object... | Scott Alexander | 31949589 | Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics | acx |
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