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# Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car? [*This is the fourteenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several...
Scott Alexander
37220265
Your Book Review: Where's My Flying Car?
acx
# Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies [*This is the thirteenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week ...
Scott Alexander
37177325
Your Book Review: The Collapse Of Complex Societies
acx
# Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef **I.** I've [previously argued](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/23/vegetarianism-for-meat-eaters/) that meat-eaters concerned about animal welfare should try to eat beef, not chicken. The logic goes: the average cow is very big and makes 405,000 calories of beef. The average chick...
Scott Alexander
37087258
Moral Costs Of Chicken Vs. Beef
acx
# What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging? Progeria is a rare disease that makes people age unnaturally quickly. Babies born with progeria can lose their hair in toddlerhood, get wrinkles by grade school age, and die - apparently of old age - in their early teens. You can see a picture of a...
Scott Alexander
37057161
What Do Treatments For Accelerated Aging Tell Us About Normal Aging?
acx
# Open Thread 174 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild - or post about whatever else you want. Also: **1:** The Bay Area will be having its first post-pandemic ACX meetup in June (fu...
Scott Alexander
36895139
Open Thread 174
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# Your Book Review: Humankind [*This is the twelfth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months. When yo...
Scott Alexander
36894227
Your Book Review: Humankind
acx
# COVID Suicides: Much More Than You Wanted To Know I have [an essay about this up on Works in Progress](https://worksinprogress.co/issue/why-didnt-suicides-rise-during-covid/), tell me what you think.
Scott Alexander
36893798
COVID Suicides: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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# Peer Review Request: Depression I'm trying to build up a database of mental health resources on my other website, [Lorien Psychiatry](https://lorienpsych.com/). Every time I post something, people here have made good comments, so I want to try using you all as peer review. This is a rough draft of my page on depres...
Scott Alexander
36839261
Peer Review Request: Depression
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# Book Review: Arabian Nights **I.** *[One Thousand And One Nights](https://amzn.to/3vijbbD)* is a book about love, wonder, magic, and morality. About genies, ape-people, and rhinoceroses who run around with elephants impaled on their horns. About how to use indexical uncertainty to hack the simulation running the un...
Scott Alexander
36790166
Book Review: Arabian Nights
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# Open Thread 173 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: 1: Comment of the week: [more from an expert in the field](https://astra...
Scott Alexander
36753212
Open Thread 173
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# Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower [*This is the eleventh of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for severa...
Scott Alexander
36701278
Your Book Review: The Accidental Superpower
acx
# Links For May *[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will have...
Scott Alexander
36430852
Links For May
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# Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars Some of the best comments were on the history of 4Chan. Mr. Doolittle [writes](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-online-culture#comment-1940062): > The rise of 4chan is actually an interesting story of its own. A large chunk of the early user bas...
Scott Alexander
36464513
Highlights From The Comments On Culture Wars
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# Open Thread 172 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want.
Scott Alexander
36486192
Open Thread 172
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# Your Book Review: Addiction By Design [*This is the tenth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months....
Scott Alexander
36429925
Your Book Review: Addiction By Design
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# Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps Several people in the comments pointed out existing lower-cost CBT-i apps! This was news to me - I'd searched pretty comprehensively and hadn't found any besides the VA's CBT-i Coach, which is not intended for individual use. They were: **1:** [Night Owl](https://apps.appl...
Scott Alexander
36399568
Highlights From The Comments On CBT-i Apps
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# Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps Trouble falling asleep? You could take sleeping pills, but they've got side effects. Guidelines recommend you try Cognitive Behavioral Therapy For Insomnia (CBT-i), a medication-free process where you train yourself to fall asleep by altering your schedule and ...
Scott Alexander
36087892
Welcome To The Terrible World Of Prescription-Only Apps
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# Theses On The Current Moment *[followup to [The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-online-culture)]* **1. The Salem Witch Hunts might not be the right metaphor** We usually stick to the same stock examples of repression and retaliation against nonconfor...
Scott Alexander
36227347
Theses On The Current Moment
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# The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars *[Followup to: [New Atheism: The Godlessness That Failed](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/10/30/new-atheism-the-godlessness-that-failed/)]* **I. Introduction** You've probably seen these graphs before: They tell a familiar story: America is becoming increasingly obsessed w...
Scott Alexander
36009805
The Rise And Fall Of Online Culture Wars
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# Open Thread 171 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1:** Comments of the week: EHarding [points out](https://astralcodexte...
Scott Alexander
36225863
Open Thread 171
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# Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson [*This is the ninth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several...
Scott Alexander
36173310
Your Book Review: The Years Of Lyndon Johnson
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# Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle [*This is the eighth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for severa...
Scott Alexander
36126612
Your Book Review: Through The Eye Of A Needle
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# Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences? I recently stayed at a B&B owned by a nice elderly couple. Very, very nice. The moment I stepped in the door, they asked how my flight was, where I was from, what I did, how I'd enjoyed my three minutes of visiting their city so far, what kind of food I liked, what my favor...
Scott Alexander
36085289
Why Is It Hard To Acknowledge Preferences?
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# Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism **I.** Around 1970, something went wrong. The global economy, after twenty-five years of good post-war growth, suddenly blipped. The post-WWII-but-pre-1970 economic world - the world of “embedded liberalism” - was a pleasant place. There were corporations, but they did...
Scott Alexander
35009467
Book Review: A Brief History Of Neoliberalism
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# If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good Spotted [on Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/stupidpol/comments/mc538i/ama_with_freddie_deboer_today_noon_est/gs2h2ry/) about the rationalist community: > I like the culture while hating a lot of the specifics...however[,] there is no such thing as "rationality" that is free ...
Scott Alexander
36008405
If You Can Be Bad, You Can Also Be Good
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# Open Thread 170 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want.
Scott Alexander
35904666
Open Thread 170
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# Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet [*This is the seventh of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for severa...
Scott Alexander
35792583
Your Book Review: The Wizard And The Prophet
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# Your Book Review: Double Fold [*This is the sixth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months. When yo...
Scott Alexander
35789659
Your Book Review: Double Fold
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# Nootropics Survey 2020 Results Thanks to the 852 of you who took the 2020 SSC nootropics survey. I asked people to rate various nootropics on whether they “worked” or not, deliberately leaving the question kind of vague. This is using a broad definition of “nootropics” - any supplement or taken-outside-the-usual-me...
Scott Alexander
35699087
Nootropics Survey 2020 Results
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# Verses Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine *To the tune of:* **CHORUS OF EPIDEMIOLOGISTS:** Lock down, lock down Show mercy if you can Lock down, lock down To save your fellow man **CITIZEN ONE:** The spring is here The sun is in the sky **CHORUS:** Lock down, lock down Or thousa...
Scott Alexander
35659297
Verses Written On The Occasion Of Getting The COVID Vaccine
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# Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021 At the beginning of every year, I [make predictions](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/). At the end of every year, I [score them](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2020-predictions-calibration-results). This year I’m really late. So here are a hundred...
Scott Alexander
35653847
Mantic Monday: Predictions For 2021
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# Open Thread 169 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1:** I've updated [my Mistakes page](https://astralcodexten.substack.c...
Scott Alexander
35611960
Open Thread 169
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# Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True [*This is the fifth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months...
Scott Alexander
35452414
Your Book Review: Why Buddhism Is True
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# Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are? [*This is the fourth of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of ...
Scott Alexander
35452135
Your Book Review: Are We Smart Enough To Know How Smart Animals Are?
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# Book Review: Global Economic History [This book](https://amzn.to/3gvuxoi) is subtitled "A Very Short Introduction" and is one of the smallest books I've ever seen, about three ounces. Three ounces is exactly the amount of global economic history that my brain can absorb before turning to mush, so I was glad to find ...
Scott Alexander
35451493
Book Review: Global Economic History
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# No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism? I enjoyed reading a recent Washington Post article, subtitled [Why Are So Many Christians In [Colombia] Converting To Orthodox Judaism?](https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2021/04/14/converts-judaism-colombia/?itid=hp_magazine) I...
Scott Alexander
35275108
No, Really, Why Are So Many Christians In Colombia Converting To Orthodox Judaism?
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# Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions I had many opinions on Donald Trump. I tried to back some of those opinions up with predictions about what would happen during his administration. Now that the dust has cleared, it's time to see how I did. The summary: Of 48 specific predictions about Trump, I got 37 dire...
Scott Alexander
35312631
Mantic Monday: Grading My Trump Predictions
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# Open Thread 168 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also: **1:** Comment of the week from the subreddit is [by PolymorphicWetware](https:...
Scott Alexander
35304327
Open Thread 168
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# Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty [*This is the third of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for several months...
Scott Alexander
35215568
Your Book Review: Progress And Poverty
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# Prospectus On Próspera Who among us hasn't looked out at the great edifice of human civilization in all its complexity, and thought "Yeah okay but I could do it better"? Centuries of utopian communes, micronations, and seasteads have dreamed of rebuilding society from first principles, free from entrenched interests...
Scott Alexander
34436669
Prospectus On Próspera
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# [LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation *[epistemic status: I know a little about the predictive coding side of this, but almost nothing about backpropagation or the math behind the unification. I am posting this mostly as a link to people who know more.]* This is a link to / ad for a great recent Le...
Scott Alexander
35138549
[LINK] Unifying Predictive Coding With Backpropagation
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# Links For April *[Remember, I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, and will highlight important corrections later, but I can’t guarantee I will ha...
Scott Alexander
34843273
Links For April
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# Open Thread 167 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1:** Thanks to everyone who commented about multiple hypothesis testin...
Scott Alexander
35036049
Open Thread 167
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# Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties [*This is the second of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for the next ...
Scott Alexander
34926767
Your Book Review: On The Natural Faculties
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# Your Book Review: Order Without Law [*This is the first of many finalists in the book review contest. It’s not by me - it’s by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done, to prevent their identity from influencing your decisions. I’ll be posting about two of these a week for the next few mont...
Scott Alexander
34926692
Your Book Review: Order Without Law
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# Metis And Bodybuilders Fitness researcher Menno Henselmans writes about [optimal program design for bodybuilders](https://mennohenselmans.com/optimal-program-design/). His thesis is that peer-reviewed studies prove bodybuilder lore is wrong in lots of places. For example: > Traditional bro wisdom holds short rest p...
Scott Alexander
34880927
Metis And Bodybuilders
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# Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems **I.** Start with Lior Pachter's [Mathematical analysis of "mathematical analysis of a vitamin D COVID-19 trial"](https://liorpachter.wordpress.com/2020/11/17/mathematical-analysis-of-mathematical-analysis-of-a-vitamin-d-covid-19-trial/). The story so far: some pe...
Scott Alexander
34839701
Two Unexpected Multiple Hypothesis Testing Problems
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# 2020 Predictions: Calibration Results At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I’m very late). Here are [2014](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/01/01/2014-predictions-calibration-results/), [2015](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calib...
Scott Alexander
34773443
2020 Predictions: Calibration Results
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# Open Thread 166 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also: **1:** Comments of the week: [TSC finds I am mistaken about the history of esci...
Scott Alexander
34776817
Open Thread 166
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# Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure Back in a more superstitious time, people believed left-handers were in league with the Devil. Now, in this age of Science, we realize that was unfair. Yes, left-handers are *statistically more likely* to be in league with the Devil. But so are right-handers! It's only the ambidex...
Scott Alexander
34657039
Ambidexterity And Cognitive Closure
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# Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram **I.** What is the right dose of Lexapro (escitalopram)? The [official FDA packet insert](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2009/021323s032,021365s023lbl.pdf) recommends a usual dose of 10 mg, and a maximum safe do...
Scott Alexander
34574897
Oh, The Places You'll Go When Trying To Figure Out The Right Dose Of Escitalopram
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# Open Thread 165 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1:** Comment of the week is [Vosmyorka describing political polarizati...
Scott Alexander
34470346
Open Thread 165
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# Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower **I.** What is willpower? Five years ago, I reviewed [Baumeister and Tierney's book](https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/03/12/book-review-willpower/) on the subject. They tentatively concluded it's a way of rationing brain glucose. But their key results have [failed to replicate]...
Scott Alexander
34351219
Toward A Bayesian Theory Of Willpower
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# More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship In yesterday's [review of](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile) *[Antifragile](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-antifragile)*, I tried to stick to something close to Taleb's own words. But here's how I eve...
Scott Alexander
34302450
More Antifragile, Diversity Libertarianism, And Corporate Censorship
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# Book Review: Antifragile Nassim Taleb summarizes the thesis of *[Antifragile](https://amzn.to/3chzQ8u)* as: > Everything gains or loses from volatility. Fragility is what loses from volatility and uncertainty [and antifragility is what gains from it]. The glass on the table is short volatility. The glass is fragil...
Scott Alexander
34238824
Book Review: Antifragile
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# Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances [*warning: boring inside baseball post*] From *The Hypothesis*: [Here's Why Substack's Scam Worked So Well](https://thehypothesis.substack.com/p/heres-why-substacks-scam-worked-so). It summarizes a common Twitter argument that Substack is doing something s...
Scott Alexander
34174081
Adding My Data Point To The Discussion Of Substack Advances
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# Open Thread 164 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also: **1:** Thank you for your patience as I try to read 105 entries to the Book Rev...
Scott Alexander
34137150
Open Thread 164
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# Book Review: The New Sultan **I.** If you only learn one thing from this post: it's pronounced "air-do-wan". If you learn two things from this post, learn that, plus how a country which starts out as a flawed but somewhat-liberal democracy can lapse into near-dictatorship over the course of a few years. I got *[T...
Scott Alexander
33889879
Book Review: The New Sultan
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# Sleep Is The Mate Of Death Melancholic depressive patients report that they feel worst in the morning, just after waking up, get better as the day goes on, and feel least affected in the evening just before bed. Continue the trend, and you might wonder how depressed people would feel after spending 24 or 36 or 48 ho...
Scott Alexander
33799765
Sleep Is The Mate Of Death
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# Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y The current interest in forecasting grew out of Iraq-War-era exasperation with the pundit class. Pundits were constantly saying stuff, like "Saddam definitely has WMDs, trust me, I'm an expert", then getting proven wrong, then continuing to get treated as authorities and thought leaders....
Scott Alexander
33710409
Mantic Monday: Mantic Matt Y
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# Open Thread 163 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1.** Thanks to the 2,374 people who filled in the survey last week. Th...
Scott Alexander
33705187
Open Thread 163
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# Richard Nixon Vs. Cool In [the highlights post on class](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-class), I wrote: When I was in middle school, I used to wonder - there are cool kids and uncool kids, right? But suppose all the uncool kids agreed to think of themselves as cool, and to ma...
Scott Alexander
33639623
Richard Nixon Vs. Cool
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# Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality **Introduction and review** Last month I talked aboutvan der Bergh et al’s work on [the precision of sensory evidence](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-precision-of-sensory-evidence), which introduced the idea of a *trapped prior*. I think this concept has f...
Scott Alexander
32649286
Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Rationality
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# The Consequences Of Radical Reform The thread that runs from Edmund Burke to James Scott and [Seeing Like A State](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/16/book-review-seeing-like-a-state/) goes: systems that evolve organically are well-adapted to their purpose. Cultures, ancient traditions, and long-lasting institutio...
Scott Alexander
33433645
The Consequences Of Radical Reform
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# Open Thread 162 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also: **1.** Several people brought up ethical issues about my post last week on DNP ...
Scott Alexander
33367330
Open Thread 162
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# Highlights From The Comments On Class To my surprise, we have some genuine upper-class people reading this blog. Here’s what they thought, starting with [Cabayun](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-fussell-on-class#comment-1350041): > While I hardly grew up in the upper-upper world Fussell is describ...
Scott Alexander
33281161
Highlights From The Comments On Class
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# Highlights From The Comments On March Links [link back to the original links post: [here](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/links-for-march)] On [the article about privateers](https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/april/unleash-privateers), local naval expert Bean writes: > It's time for the standard...
Scott Alexander
33234230
Highlights From The Comments On March Links
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# Links For March *Warning: I haven’t independently verified each link. On average, commenters will end up spotting evidence that around two or three of the links in each links post are wrong or misleading. I correct these as I see them, so you may want to read this online instead of in an email, to catch the edits. S...
Scott Alexander
32134985
Links For March
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# Shilling For Big Mitochondria [**EDIT:** I’m hearing that some people are considering taking DNP after reading this post. I tried to stress very hard how bad an idea that was, but apparently it didn’t sink in. PLEASE DO NOT TAKE DNP AFTER READING THIS. I tried to cover some of the risks, but there are others I didn’...
Scott Alexander
33086248
Shilling For Big Mitochondria
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# Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy **Metaculus scoring rule controversy** Zvi considered using some Metaculus markets for his weekly coronavirus roundup, but was [turned off by the scoring rules](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQACEuWpkSyRgHC4p/covid-2-11-as-expected). Ross Rheingans-Yoo [writes about the is...
Scott Alexander
33060649
Mantic Monday: Scoring Rule Controversy
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# Open Thread 161 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1:** On my predictions thread, I included a prediction that expert con...
Scott Alexander
33080614
Open Thread 161
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# Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews By this point you’ve probably tried Impossible Burgers, and you know that restaurants can do some pretty impressive things with them. But there are so many interesting meat dishes - what if you want something other than a burger? This market is still developing, but I live in the Ba...
Scott Alexander
32963867
Bay Area Plant-Based Meat Reviews
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# A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class" **Read this first:** [Book Review: Fussell On Class](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-fussell-on-class) Dear Republican Party: I hear you're [having a post-Trump identity crisis](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/935776642/the-gops-post-trump-id...
Scott Alexander
32933298
A Modest Proposal For Republicans: Use The Word "Class"
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# Book Review: Fussell On Class **I.** Paul Fussell [wants to talk about class](https://amzn.to/37Fm50D). (well, wanted, past tense, it's a 1983 book, we'll come back to that later) He recognizes this might not be the most popular topic. When he tells people he's writing a book on class in America, "it is as if I h...
Scott Alexander
32863465
Book Review: Fussell On Class
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# Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions Since this is getting broader than just Metaculus, I'm changing the name to Mantic Monday, after an obscure word for "oracular" (and changing the preview image to a mantis, since I don't know how else to visually represent "mantic". And posting it early Tuesday morning ...
Scott Alexander
32761479
Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
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# A Look Down Track B **I.** Depression [probably has something to do with decreased synaptogenesis in the brain](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/06/13/what-is-depression-anyway-the-synapse-hypothesis/), maybe the hippocampus in particular. Neurons are less likely to respond to stimuli by connecting to other neurons....
Scott Alexander
32783193
A Look Down Track B
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# Open Thread 160 This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about whatever you want. Also: **1:** In my post on the precision of sensory evidence, I cited a finding that depressed people had impaired color vision, ie literally saw the world in shades of gray. An alert reader sends me [a paper that discredits](http...
Scott Alexander
32788314
Open Thread 160
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# Movie Review: Gabriel Over The White House I have a friend from the 1930s. I don't know how she ended up in 2021, but we’re glad to have her. She makes me watch 1930s movies sometimes, and the most recent, *[Gabriel Over The White House](https://amzn.to/2NFIS5c)* (released ~December 1932), made an impression. The p...
Scott Alexander
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Movie Review: Gabriel Over The White House
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# Ezra Klein On Vetocracy In my review last week of Ezra Klein's *[Why We're Polarized](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-why-were-polarized)*, I linked to a related [Vox article on vetocracy](https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21228469/marc-andreessen-build-government-coronavirus): > In a viral essay, ven...
Scott Alexander
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Ezra Klein On Vetocracy
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# Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart DeBoer argued that charter schools succeed through selection effects: they only take the best students. Several commenters pointed out this was illegal. It is, but they’ve found loopholes. Here's [Alexander H](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/book-review-the-cult-of...
Scott Alexander
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Highlights From The Comments On Cult Of Smart
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# Book Review: The Cult Of Smart Oscar Wilde supposedly said George Bernard Shaw "has no enemies, but is intensely disliked by his friends". Socialist blogger Freddie DeBoer is the opposite: few allies, but deeply respected by his enemies. I disagree with him about everything, so naturally I am a big fan of his work -...
Scott Alexander
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Book Review: The Cult Of Smart
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# COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know Most health articles ask you to act on their opinions. I am specifically asking you *not* to act on mine. In a moment, I'll tell you whether or not I think Vitamin D prevents or treats coronavirus. But I'll give you a free spoiler: I am less than 100% certain of wha...
Scott Alexander
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COVID/Vitamin D: Much More Than You Wanted To Know
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# Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread So far there have been three waves of coronavirus cases in the US. The first wave was the beginning, when it caught us unprepared. The second wave was in July, when we got sloppy and lifted lockdowns too soon. The third wave was November through January, because the corona...
Scott Alexander
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Coronavirus: Links, Discussion, Open Thread
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# Statement on New York Times Article There was recently a negative article about me and my blog in the *New York Times*. Most of you already know the history behind this, but for anyone referred here by NYT, this is where I give my side and defend myself. Like many people in the early 2000s, I started a blog when I ...
Scott Alexander
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Statement on New York Times Article
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# The Precision Of Sensory Evidence [*semi-necessary prerequisites:* [Surfing Uncertainty](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/), [Friston On Computational Mood](https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/03/08/ssc-journal-club-friston-on-computational-mood/)] In earlier posts, I've expressed c...
Scott Alexander
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The Precision Of Sensory Evidence
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# List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC *[previously in sequence: [List Of Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/10/25/list-of-fictional-drugs-banned-by-the-fda/), [More Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA](https://slatestarcodex.com/2013/12/02/more-fictional-drugs-banned-by-t...
Scott Alexander
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List Of Fictional Cryptocurrencies Banned By The SEC
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# Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures *[previously in sequence: [Taxometrics](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions), [Dynamical Systems](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions-34e). Epistemic status: **speculative**. This shou...
Scott Alexander
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Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Tradeoffs And Failures
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# Book Review: Why We're Polarized **I.** Ezra Klein is great. I know a lot of people throw shade on him for founding Vox. But as Van Gogh said about God creating the world, "We must not hold it against Him; only a master could make such a mistake". Ezra is a master and I was happy to be able to read his *[Why We're ...
Scott Alexander
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Book Review: Why We're Polarized
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# Metaculus Monday 2/8/21 Thanks to everyone who commented last week with prediction markets I missed. Two of them seemed to be especially interesting. **[Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/)** is another cryptocurrency-based prediction market. It's got about two dozen contracts open, and some of them are pretty big ...
Scott Alexander
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Metaculus Monday 2/8/21
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# Open Thread 159 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be **no-politics**, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is odd-numbered, so be careful. Otherwise, post about anything else you want. Also: **1.** I understand Substack is still working on various concerns ab...
Scott Alexander
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Open Thread 159
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# Journalism and Legible Expertise I heard from a journalist yesterday after writing [yesterday's post on WebMD](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/webmd-and-the-tragedy-of-legible). They've been trying to write a coronavirus article worthy of Zvi or any of the other illegibly smart people writing on the pandemic. ...
Scott Alexander
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Journalism and Legible Expertise
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# WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise **I.** I started a small database of psychiatry information. It's going well. I'm grateful for all your emails suggesting changes and corrections. Sort of. Here are some of the kinds of emails I get: **"You listed three major side effects of this drug, but I got a side ...
Scott Alexander
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WebMD, And The Tragedy Of Legible Expertise
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# Book Review Contest Final Rules Thanks to everyone who has waited patiently for more information on this. I planned [a book review contest](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/05/book-review-contest-call-for-entries/) for last summer, which I didn’t get to do because of my unexpected hiatus. I currently have 31 entr...
Scott Alexander
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Book Review Contest Final Rules
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# Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems *[Previously in sequence:* [Taxometrics](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions)*]* **I.** Imagine Alice has a chronic disease. Luckily, as long as she has a job, she will have health insurance. And health insurance provides he...
Scott Alexander
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Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Dynamical Systems
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# Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin' I was driving down to LA when the cops pulled me over. "You have to turn back sir, the Sphinx here eats any traveler who can't answer her riddle." "I've trained my whole life for this" I said, and stepped on the gas. Soon I saw a Sphinx lounging in the middle of t...
Scott Alexander
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Riddle Of The Sphinx II: Sustained Release Riddlin'
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# Metaculus Monday Prediction markets are the future. They're a type of trustless, decentralized expertise that often equals or outperforms official sources. But they're not quite the present. Right now I only know of three prediction markets, and none of them live up to their potential. As usual, it’s the government...
Scott Alexander
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Metaculus Monday
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# Open Thread 158 This is the weekly visible open thread. Odd-numbered open threads will be no-politics, even-numbered threads will be politics-allowed. This one is even-numbered, so go wild. Otherwise, post about whatever you want. Also: **1.** Thanks to everyone who commented on the amphetamines thread. The main th...
Scott Alexander
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Open Thread 158
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# Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy *Glen Weyl posted a reply to my post criticizing his essay on technocracy, and kindly agreed to let me elevate it into a top-level post.* *(consider this a standing offer to anyone else I write a post criticizing to do the same)* *I’ve very slightly edited some parts to adjust for dif...
Scott Alexander
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Weyl Contra Me On Technocracy
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# Contra Weyl On Technocracy **I.** I am not defending technocracy. Nobody ever defends technocracy. It's like "elitism" or "statism". There is no Statist Party. Nobody holds rallies demanding more statism. There is no Citizens for Statism Facebook page with thousands of likes and followers. Yet for some reason libe...
Scott Alexander
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Contra Weyl On Technocracy
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# Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics *[reposted from [here](https://lorienpsych.com/2020/10/30/ontology-of-psychiatric-conditions-taxometrics/), with edits]* **I.** Taxometrics is the study of whether psychiatric conditions are categorical or dimensional. Something is *categorical* if it neatly, object...
Scott Alexander
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Ontology Of Psychiatric Conditions: Taxometrics
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