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meanP(F) ∼ N(
s∈P
λ )β) =N(µP,σ2
P),
µs, σ2
|P|2
s,s′∈P
e−(∥s−s′∥
where |P| is the cardinal of the patch P (i.e., the number of grid points belonging to P).
Finally,
CRPSmeanP,wP
(F,y) =
wPCRPS(N(µP,σ2
P),meanP(y)).
P∈P
2
46