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the new contract, and voilà, a price gap is created on the charts. Also note that there is usually a 10- to 20-point difference between the mini- sized Dow futures price and the Dow Jones Industrials cash price on any given day. There is a very complicated explanation for this, involving “basis,” “future price projecti...
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that is not really important to the short-term trader. It’s just something to be aware of so that traders don’t think something is wrong with their quote systems. That sums up the basics with regard to the mechanics of trading futures. The key is just to get comfortable with a futures execution platform and how it work...
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just like buying IBM (International Business Machines) or GOOG (Google) in terms of mechanics. I also recommend starting off trading one lot at a time. A new futures trader will make mistakes, and a mistake on one lot is much cheaper than a mistake on ten lots or more. A trader who has never used a futures broker befor...
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out rates, levels of service, and so forth. And you can always e-mail us at support@ tradethemarkets.com with any questions. The Mini-Sized Dow Versus the E-Mini S&P 500: Does It Matter? Now that we have covered Futures 101, I’d like to review some of the basic differences between the
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mini-sized Dow and the E- mini S&P. I’m focusing on these two contracts because, in my experience, these are going to be the contracts that most of the people who are reading this either currently trade or will consider trading. I trade both contracts actively, but the mini-sized Dow has a few advantages over the E-min...
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traders. Why Is It Important to Understand the Difference Between the Various Stock Index Futures Contracts? The mini-sized Dow (YM) has the same specifications as the popular E-mini S&P (ES) contract: • One point in the E-mini S&P equals about ten
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points in the mini-sized Dow. • One point in the E-mini S&P equals $50; ten points in the mini-sized Dow equals $50. Figure 4.5 shows movement on the Dow and the S&P over exactly the same time frame. The Dow has moved 13 points lower (from the high at point 1 to
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the low at point 2), and during this same time, the S&P has moved 1.5 points lower. The Dow moved lower in 13 one-point increments. However, the S&P made a similar move in six quarter-point increments. To break this down more simply, when the Dow moves 10 points, it does so in 10 one-point increments. When the S&P move...
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so in four quarter-point increments. This is a 60 percent difference in the spread. People who are trading the YM over the ES are putting that spread differential right into their pocket. Commissions and spreads are a cost of doing business, and anything that can be done to reduce costs will improve a trader’s bottom l...
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Figure 4.5 Another interesting phenomenon is that nearly all setups on the ES also can be executed identically on the YM. In fact, I often watch the ES for trade setups, and then take them on the YM. However, by using the YM instead of the ES on these setups, a trader will get picked off on stop runs less frequently. W...
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goes back to the spread. A 2- point stop on the ES is the same as a 20-point stop on the YM. There are many times when the ES will run 2 points on a stop run, and this moves the YM 18 or 19 points, missing the stop. The YM has 12 extra places to place a stop or target over the ES in a 20-point move. Because of this, I ...
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When Is Liquidity King? When the mini-sized Dow first came out, it was trading very little volume. However, the contract caught on fast, and today it trades volume in six figures nearly every day. The ES is still the big boy when it comes to volume, trading millions of contracts per day. This is something that some tra...
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lot at a time, or even up to 10 lots, then the YM is fine. But if you are trading a larger account and are using 40 or 50 contracts, then you’ll want to trade in the ES, where there is greater liquidity. The reality for me is, though I would love to do more trades in the YM, I am mostly limited to the ES when trading s...
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“spread the love” across multiple contracts. If I see a solid setup taking shape as a day trade, where I plan to allocate a total of 50 contracts, I might buy 40 ES and 10 YM. Finally, if you do become an active stock index futures trader, seriously consider getting a seat lease through the CME Group. There is one for ...
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“IOM.” These will reduce your exchange fees by about 80 percent, thus reducing your costs. For the YM, a seat lease is currently around $75 per month, and for the ES, it’s around $550 a month as of September 2011. These prices can fluctuate based on the amount of volume being traded. There is a healthy application fee ...
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contracts per day or 20 ES contracts per day, then the lease is a “breakeven” venture. If you make any more trades than that, you start saving money. If you are interested in this program and need any help navigating through the process, feel free to e-mail us at support@tradethemarkets.com. What Is the Easiest Way to ...
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Resistance? A trader can watch the 30 stocks in the Dow to get a very good idea of how the index is acting or is going to act. I like to place all 30 Dow stocks in a window and have them automatically sorted from strongest to weakest each day on a Net % Change basis. Getting a feel for all 500 stocks in the S&P 500 at ...
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doing this with the Dow, I can look at my sorter list and see at a glance that, for example, 26 out of the 30 stocks are red (down on the day). Figure 4.6 shows all 30 Dow stocks sorted from best to worst on a Net % Change basis. I can watch the list and see that at this moment in time, 7 stocks are down on the day, w...
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up on the day. Later in the day, I might see that 11 are up on the day and that 19 are down, and I can tell at a glance that the Dow is getting stronger—even if the index is still chopping around. If the individual components of the Dow are getting stronger, the entire index will eventually make a run higher. This filt...
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I can watch more stocks going red or going green as the markets start to fall apart or try to improve. This type of “at a glance” analysis is very difficult to do with the 500 stocks that make up the S&P 500 index. Also, with the Dow components, it is easy to see which ones have more weight. If IBM (International Busin...
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(Chevron), and MCD (McDonald’s) are all down on the day, this is going to have more of an impact on the Dow than if BAC (Bank of America), AA (Alcoa), and GE (General Electric) were all down on the day. Figure 4.7 shows a listing of all of the Dow stocks and the current percentage weighting each has within the index. ...
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be very difficult to do with all 500 stocks of the S&P 500. Why Are Futures Easier to Trade Than Stocks? If traders currently are in an individual stock, there can be all kinds of outside influences that can move the price. Maybe insiders are dumping their own stock. Maybe an analyst has just
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issued an upgrade while the analyst’s trading department is dumping shares on an unsuspecting public. Maybe the company is giving positive forward guidance as its last hope to stave off bankruptcy proceedings. The factors affecting an individual stock are endless.
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Figure 4.6 However, when investors in general want to sell stocks, the Dow reacts by heading south. If they want to buy, the Dow spurts green. The “Dow effect” encompasses individual investors, hedge funds, program traders, and arbitrage traders. In addition, the Dow moves actively in all buy and sell programs. It
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is supply and demand at its finest, and this is what makes the mini-sized Dow futures contract such a great instrument to trade. Even better, while an individual stock may be halted, the YM trades on. Even on days where the YM could reach a daily price limit—which is currently a 10 percent move in the entire index—this...
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Exchange-Traded Funds (DIA). If traders have a stock that they own halted, there is nothing to do but wait— generally for pain.
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Figure 4.7 Why Do Newer Traders Do Better with the YM? It is not an assumption that new traders do better with the YM. It is based on my observation of watching hundreds of traders go through a process in which they move from trading stocks and jump into the futures markets. They start
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trading the ES, and they lose money. Then they switch to the YM, and things start taking shape and they make money. I’ve even watched newer traders start off in the YM, then try the ES, then the NQ, and then the TF—and they always come back to the YM. Why is this? Part of the reason is psychological—it just sounds bett...
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the ES. I’ve watched ES traders let a “small” 1.25 profit turn into a loss, whereas a YM trader with an equivalent 13 points will automatically and unhesitatingly sell off a couple of contracts in order to cash in some profits. Finally, it is important to realize that the best traders in the world are trading the ES. ...
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these people. If you are just starting out in Tai Kwon Do, do you want to spar with a beginning white belt or an advanced black belt? The YM doesn’t have the intensity of the ES crowd. Remember, traders are not trading a market—they are trading other traders. Cut your teeth on the YM, then venture into deeper waters. T...
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knocking the ES, but I’m really not. It’s an awesome contract to trade, and later in the book there are plenty of setups in which I utilize this contract. However, this is a contract for professionals, and I do think it is better for newer and intermediate traders to stick with the YM in order to improve their odds of ...
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What Does a Trader Need to Know to Trade the Key Commodity Markets? I want to spend a little time going into the contract specifics for some of the markets I just discussed. For newer traders, the most confusing thing about futures contracts is that, unlike stocks, each futures market has different pricing specificatio...
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different months. This makes it tricky to figure out how much a move is worth to a trader’s P&L, and it is a pain to try to figure out how to bring up a quote. (Note that I have listed all the month codes in the chapter on propulsion plays, but I will also review some of them here.) If a stock trader is buying IBM or R...
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work the same way, even though they are different stocks. A move of $1 in either stock has the same impact on a trader’s P&L. Unfortunately, that’s not how it works in the futures markets. Again, if you are already familiar with these, feel free to skim. My intention for newer traders is that you’ll be able to use this...
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you look at trading additional contracts. Please note that all times discussed are based on the eastern time zone. Mini-sized Dow (YM). The YM trades on the CBOT (now CME Group). It opens for business at
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6:00 p.m. eastern time on Sunday, and trades until 4:15 p.m. eastern on Monday afternoon. It reopens for trading 15 minutes later, at 4:30 p.m. eastern, shuts down for
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maintenance from 5:30 p.m. to 6:00 p.m., then trades continuously again until 4:15 p.m. the next day. It does this all week, closing for the weekend at 4:15 p.m. eastern time
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on Friday. The contract months are March (H), June (M), September (U), and December (Z). The YM moves in increments of 1 point, which equals $5 per contract.
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Catching a 30- point move using one contract would equal $150. Although this contract trades nearly 24 hours, I usually focus on it only during the regular cash market
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session, from 9:30 a.m. to 4:15 p.m. The quote format on TradeStation for the March 2012 contract is YMH12. The continuous symbol on TradeStation is @YM. For
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thinkorswim, the March 2012 contract is/YMH2./YM is the continuous symbol. Continuous means that the contract will automatically change from March to June to September,
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and so on, on rollover days. This is used for charting purposes so that there is literally one “continuous” chart of all the different contract months. This is useful for looking back
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over several months or years of data. You actually can’t trade the “continuous” contract—only a specified month. E-mini S&P (ES). The ES trades on the CME, with the
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same hours as the YM. The contract months are March (H), June (M), September (U), and December (Z). The ES moves in increments of 0.25 point, which equals $12.50 per
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contract, or $50 for a full 1-point move. A 3-point move in the ES using one contract would equal $150. Although this contract trades nearly 24 hours, I usually focus on it only
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during the regular cash market session, from 9:30 a.m. to 4:15 p.m. Quote formats are the same as those for YM; just substitute ES for YM. E-mini Nasdaq (NQ). Hours
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are the same as for the ES and YM. The NQ moves in increments of 0.25 point, which equals $5 per contract, or $20 for a full 1-point move. A 3-point move in the NQ using one
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contract would equal $60. For quotes, use the same formats as those for YM and ES, but substitute the NQ symbol. E-mini Russell (TF). The TF (formally ER) used to trade
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on the CME, and now trades on the ICE (Intercontinental Exchange). Although retail traders don’t know about this or frankly care, there was a huge battle between the CME and the ICE to get this
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contract. The ICE paid more than $50 million for the rights to trade Russell products, and the contract switched over from the CME to the ICE. This is all “invisible” to retail traders,
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as it’s still just a clickable trade on your computer, no matter what the exchange. This contract is attractive to trade because it jumps around and has large P&L swings. It opens on
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Sunday evening at 6:00 p.m. eastern time, then trades through 6:00 p.m. eastern time the next day. It then stops trading for two hours, reopens at 8:00 p.m. eastern time,
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and trades through until 6:00 p.m. eastern time the next day, repeating the process through the rest of the week. One of my favorite ways to use the Russell is as a leading
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indicator. It will often time a breakdown or breakout before the other three indexes just discussed. The contract months are March (H), June (M), September (U), and
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December (Z). The TF moves in increments of 0.10 point, which equals $10 per contract, or $100 for a full 1-point move. A 3-point move in the TF using one contract would equal $300.
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For quotes, use the same formats as given previously and substitute the symbol TF. German DAX and Euro STOXX 50. I want to include a brief note on these
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indexes, because I’ve seen a lot of press on them in recent months. First, the DAX. This is the German equivalent of the Dow. This is a good market to trade, but it is not for
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beginners. I’ve seen many traders who normally trade 10 YM or 10 ES lots, which are interchangeable, jump into the DAX and also trade 10 lots. They heard that the DAX was like the
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Dow because it has a trading range similar to the Dow, and it’s made up of 30 big stocks like the Dow, so they go ahead and use a 20-point stop, just like they would on the Dow. When their
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stop is hit, they think they should have lost only $1,000, but it ends up being $6,500. The bottom line is that the DAX is a large contract. It trades in a similar range as the YM, but
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instead of $5 a point, it’s worth 25 euros a point. If the exchange rate is 1.2937 (that is, how many dollars a euro is worth), that makes each point worth $32.34. This is like trading a little over 6
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YM or ES contracts. In the 10-lot example, it would be the equivalent of trading 65 lots on the YM or ES. This is obviously important to know. The DAX trades from 2:00 a.m.
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until 1:00 p.m. eastern standard time in the winter. With daylight savings, that changes to 3:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. eastern standard time. To get quotes on this contract, you
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have to sign up for Eurex with your data feed, which runs about $9 a month. The contract trades March, June, September, and December. The Euro STOXX 50 Index is a futures
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contract that provides a blue-chip representation of the Eurozone and is much more comparable to the ES in size and liquidity. If you are up late at night and want to trade Europe,
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then trade this contract. The symbol on TradeStation for the DAX is @FDAX for the continuous contract. For the Euro STOXX 50, it’s @FESX. Full-sized 100- oz. gold (GC)
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and 5,000-oz silver (SI). I’ve talked a lot about the stock index futures, so let me talk briefly about gold and silver. If you trade gold, you will be in good company. No other market in the world
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has the universal appeal of the gold market. For centuries, gold has been coveted for its unique blend of rarity, beauty, and near- indestructibility. Nations have embraced gold
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as a store of wealth and a medium of international exchange, and individuals have sought to possess gold as insurance against the daily fluctuations of paper money. Gold is also a
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vital industrial metal, as it is an excellent conductor of electricity, it is extremely resistant to corrosion, and it is one of the most chemically stable of the elements, making it
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critically important in electronics and other high-tech applications. That’s all well and good, right? But as a trader, all I really care about is whether the market in question
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provides good trading opportunities. Over the last several years, gold has become a great market to trade, with plenty of volatility and trending price action. The pit starts trading
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at 8:20 a.m. and ends at 2:00 p.m., and during this time there is a lot of action and volume. The electronic version trades right along with the pit, then continues trading into the night,
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giving nearly 24-hour access to gold prices. The contract months for gold can get complicated. The official months are “the current month, the next two months, and any February,
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April, August, and October falling within a 23-month period and any June and December falling within a 60-month period.” For the setups I’m using, I’m looking at the front month or
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the next month out, which means that every month is in play. The rest of the available trading months are for people who are looking at hedging many years into the future. I like to
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establish trades in this contract during pit session hours for day trades, but I will also trade it overnight if the setup is strong. Gold moves in increments of 10 cents, and each 10 cents
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is worth $10 per contract. A full $1 move in the price of gold is worth $100 per contract. Note that to get quotes, traders have to be signed up for COMEX data through their quote vendor.
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What about silver? The 5,000-oz silver contract is a big one. Each 1-point move is worth $5,000, and it moves in ½- cent increments. Each 1-cent move is $50.00. Silver
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is a thinly traded contract, and frankly, it’s not for beginners. E-micro gold (MGC). This is a newer contract that is the size of the GC contract and
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answers the question, “What if I don’t really want to trade 100 ounces of gold at a time?” This contract represents 10 ounces of gold, so instead of a full $1.00
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move affecting your P&L by $100.00, it would affect your P&L by only $10.00. Full-sized 30- year bond (US —pit, ZB— electronic). Interest-rate futures were pioneered by
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the CBOT in 1975 in response to a growing market need for tools that could protect against sharp and frequent swings in the cost of money. U.S. Treasury bond futures were
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introduced first, followed by futures on 10-year, 5- year, and 2- year U.S. Treasury notes. Over the past two decades, contract volume has exploded, reflecting the
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growth of the underlying instruments and profound changes in the marketplace. If you focus primarily on the stock market, it is critical that you become familiar with bonds. The
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bond markets dwarf the equity markets. Therefore, it is important for you to know when money is flowing out of bonds or into bonds. The bond markets and the stock markets also
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have an interesting relationship. Sometimes they move directly opposite each other, during periods of portfolio reallocation. This happens when huge funds have to
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sell stocks and buy bonds to readjust the percentage of capital that they have invested in each. During these times, new highs in the bond market lead to new lows in the stock
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market, and thus bonds become a great leading indicator. The pit contract trades from 8:20 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., Monday through Friday. The electronic version trades
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until 5:00 p.m. and reopens three hours later, at 8:00 p.m., Sunday through Thursday. I always trade the electronic version. The contract months are March (H), June (M),
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September (U), and December (Z). The bonds move in increments of , which is called a tick, and are worth $31.25 per contract; equals 1 full point, which is $1,000 per
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contract. Ten-year notes (TY—pit, ZN— electronic). The 10- year notes trade on the CBOT (now CME Group) and are the same as the 30-year bonds in terms of trading hours
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and trading months. The notes move in increments of , which are called ticks and are worth $15.625 per contract. These are very liquid contracts and are great for both swing
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and day trading. Soybeans (S). My appreciation of the grain markets came about through an accident. I own a 1,000- acre farm in Palisade, Nebraska, and
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because of that I started watching the grain futures prices. I liked the way they traded, and, once I learned about the contract specifications, I realized that they trade very similarly to the
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E-mini S&Ps and mini-sized Dow. Soybeans trade in the pit from 10:30 a.m. to 2:15 p.m., Monday through Friday. There is also an electronic session that runs from 8:31
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p.m. to 7:00 a.m. The symbol for this is ZS, but I don’t watch this session or trade it. I focus on this contract during the pit hours, but I trade the electronic contract. Soybeans
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move in increments of ¼ cent, and each ¼ cent is worth $12.50. A full cent is worth $50. This is just like the E-mini S&Ps, where they move in quarter-point increments worth $12.50,
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and a full point is worth $50. An 8-cent move in soybeans is just like an 8- point move in the ES or an 80-point move in the YM and is worth $400. Soybeans trade in September (U),
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November (X), January (F), March (H), May (K), July (N), and August (Q). Soybeans are the most volatile of the three grains. They generally trade in a range equal to 1½ times that
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