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Commenting on the ‘philosophical turn’ in IR, Wæver remarks that ‘[a] frenzy for words like “epistemology” and “ontology” often signals this philosophical turn’, although he goes on to comment that these terms are often used loosely.4 However, loosely deployed or not, it is clear that debates concerning ontology and epistemology play a central role in the contemporary IR theory wars. In one respect, this is unsurprising since it is a characteristic feature of the social sciences that periods of disciplinary disorientation involve recourse to reflection on the philosophical commitments of different theoretical approaches, and there is no doubt that such reflection can play a valuable role in making explicit the commitments that characterise (and help individuate) diverse theoretical positions. Yet, such a philosophical turn is not without its dangers and I will briefly mention three before turning to consider a confusion that has, I will suggest, helped to promote the IR theory wars by motivating this philosophical turn. The first danger with the philosophical turn is that it has an inbuilt tendency to prioritise issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and/or interpretive power as if the latter two were merely a simple function of the former. But while the explanatory and/or interpretive power of a theoretical account is not wholly independent of its ontological and/or epistemological commitments (otherwise criticism of these features would not be a criticism that had any value), it is by no means clear that it is, in contrast, wholly dependent on these philosophical commitments. Thus, for example, one need not be sympathetic to rational choice theoryto recognise that it can provide powerful accounts of certain kinds of problems, such as the tragedy of the commons in which dilemmas of collective action are foregrounded. It may, of course, be the case that the advocates of rational choice theory cannot give a good account of why this type of theory is powerful in accounting for this class of problems (i.e., how it is that the relevant actors come to exhibit features in these circumstances that approximate the assumptions of rational choice theory) and, if this is the case, it is a philosophical weakness—but this does not undermine the point that, for a certain class of problems, rational choice theory may provide the best account available to us. In other words, while the critical judgement of theoretical accounts in terms of their ontological and/or epistemological sophistication is one kind of critical judgement, it is not the only or even necessarily the most important kind. The second danger run by the philosophical turn is that because prioritisation of ontology and epistemology promotes theory-construction from philosophical first principles, it cultivates a theory-driven rather than problem-driven approach to IR. Paraphrasing Ian Shapiro, the point can be put like this: since it is the case that there is always a plurality of possible true descriptions of a given action, event or phenomenon, the challenge is to decide which is the most apt in terms of getting a perspicuous grip on the action, event or phenomenon in question given the purposes of the inquiry; yet, from this standpoint, ‘theory-driven work is part of a reductionist program’ in that it ‘dictates always opting for the description that calls for the explanation that flows from the preferred model or theory’.5 The justification offered for this strategy rests on the mistaken belief that it is necessary for social science because general explanations are required to characterise the classes of phenomena studied in similar terms. However, as Shapiro points out, this is to misunderstand the enterprise of science since ‘whether there are general explanations for classes of phenomena is a question for social-scientific inquiry, not to be prejudged before conducting that inquiry’.6 Moreover, this strategy easily slips into the promotion of the pursuit of generality over that of empirical validity. The third danger is that the preceding two combine to encourage the formation of a particular image of disciplinary debate in IR—what might be called (only slightly tongue in cheek) ‘the Highlander view’—namely, an image of warring theoretical approaches with each, despite occasional temporary tactical alliances, dedicated to the strategic achievement of sovereignty over the disciplinary field. It encourages this view because the turn to, and prioritisation of, ontology and epistemology stimulatesthe idea that there can only be one theoretical approach which gets things right, namely, the theoretical approach that gets its ontology and epistemology right. This image feeds back into IR exacerbating the first and second dangers, and so a potentially vicious circle arises.

[David Owen Millennium Journale of international studies 2002 “Re-Orientation Internatioal Relations: On Pragmatism, Pluralism and Practical Reasoning”]

the philosophical turn has an inbuilt tendency to prioritise issues of ontology and epistemology over explanatory and or interpretive power . explanatory and/or interpretive power of a theoretical account is by no means dependent on philosophical commitments , rational choice theory may provide the best account available to us prioritisation of ontology and epistemology cultivates a theory-driven rather than problem-driven approach ‘theory-driven work is part of a reductionist program’ in that it ‘dictates always opting for the description that calls for the explanation that flows from the preferred model or theory’ this strategy slips into the promotion of generality over empirical validity

Prioritizing ontology and epistemology over specific policy formulations paralyzes problem solving measures ensuring short-term annihilation

Kritik Answers and Framework - UNT 2013.html5

North Texas (UNT)

Kritik Answers

2013

With this look ahead at an ethics for the future, we are touching at the same time upon the question of the future of freedom. The unavoidable discussion of this question seems to give rise to misunderstandings. My dire prognosis that not only our material standard of living but also our democratic freedoms would fall victim to the growing pressure of a worldwide ecological crisis, until finally there would remain only some form of tyranny that would try to save the situation, has led to the accusation that I am defending dictatorship as a solution to our problems. I shall ignore here what is a confusion between warning and recommendation. But I have indeed said that such a tyranny would still be better than total ruin; thus, I have ethically accepted it as an alternative. I must now defend this standpoint, which I continue to support, before the court that I myself have created with the main argument of this essay. For are we not contradicting ourselves in prizing physical survival at the price of freedom? Did we not say that freedom was the condition of our capacity for responsibility—and that this capacity was a reason for the survival of humankind?; By tolerating tyranny as an alternative to physical annihilation are we not violating the principle we established: that the How of existence must not take precedence over its Why? Yet we can make a terrible concession to the primacy of physical survival in the conviction that the ontological capacity for freedom, inseparable as it is from man's being, cannot really be extinguished, only temporarily banished from the public realm. This conviction can be supported by experience we are all familiar with. We have seen that even in the most totalitarian societies the urge for freedom on the part of some individuals cannot be extinguished, and this renews our faith in human beings. Given this faith, we have reason to hope that, as long as there are human beings who survive, the image of God will continue to exist along with them and will wait in concealment for its new hour. With that hope—which in this particular case takes precedence over fear—it is permissible, for the sake of physical survival, to accept if need be a temporary absence of freedom in the external affairs of humanity. This is, I want to emphasize, a worst-case scenario, and it is the foremost task of responsibility at this particular moment in world history to prevent it from happening. This is in fact one of the noblest of duties (and at the same time one concerning self-preservation), on the part of the imperative of responsibility to avert future coercion that would lead to lack of freedom by acting freely in the present, thus preserving as much as possible the ability of future generations to assume responsibility. But more than that is involved. At stake is the preservation of Earth's entire miracle of creation, of which our human existence is a part and before which man reverently bows, even without philosophical "grounding." Here too faith may precede and reason follow; it is faith that longs for this preservation of the Earth (fides quaerens intellectum), and reason comes as best it can to faith's aid with arguments, not knowing or even asking how much depends on its success or failure in determining what action to take. With this confession of faith we come to the end of our essay on ontology.

(Hans, Former Alvin Johnson Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research and Former Eric Voegelin Visiting Prof. – U. Munich, “Morality and Mortality: A Search for the Good After Auschwitz”, p. 111-112)

tyranny would still be better than total ruin are we not contradicting ourselves in prizing physical survival at the price of freedom By tolerating tyranny as an alternative to physical annihilation are we not violating the principle we established: that the How of existence must not take precedence over its Why? Yet we can make a terrible concession to the primacy of physical survival in the conviction that the ontological capacity for freedom, inseparable as it is from man's being, cannot really be extinguished, only temporarily banished from the public realm This conviction can be supported by experience we are all familiar with. We have seen that even in the most totalitarian societies the urge for freedom on the part of some individuals cannot be extinguished, and this renews our faith in human beings . as long as there are human beings who survive, the image of God will continue to exist along with them and will wait in concealment for its new hour. With that hope it is permissible, for the sake of physical survival, to accept if need be a temporary absence of freedom in the external affairs of humanity At stake is the preservation of Earth's entire miracle of creation, of which our human existence is a part and before which man reverently bows, even without philosophical "grounding."

Extinction outweighs ontology – ontological capacity is inevitable – only extinction prevents true freedom

Kritik Answers and Framework - UNT 2013.html5

North Texas (UNT)

Kritik Answers

2013

To be sure, Fox sees the need for our undergoing “certain fundamental changes” in our “thinking, beliefs, attitudes, values” and Zimmerman calls for a “paradigm shift” in our thinking about ourselves, other, and the Earth. But it is not clear that what either offers as suggestions for what we can, must, or should do in the face of a runaway arms race are sufficient to “wind down” the arms race before it leads to omnicide. In spite of the importance of Fox’s analysis and reminders it is not clear that “admitting our (nuclear) fear and anxiety” to ourselves and “identifying the mechanisms that dull or mask our emotional and other responses” represent much more than examples of basic, often. stated principles of psychotherapy. Being aware of the psychological maneuvers that keep us numb to nuclear reality may well be the road to transcending them but it must only be a “first step” (as Fox acknowledges), during which we Simultaneously act to eliminate nuclear threats, break our complicity with the ams race, get rid of arsenals of genocidal weaponry, and create conditions for international goodwill, mutual trust, and creative interdependence. Similarly, in respect to Zimmerman: in spite of the challenging Heideggerian insights he brings out regarding what motivates the arms race, many questions may be raised about his prescribed “solutions.” Given our need for a paradigm shift in our (distorted) understanding of ourselves and the rest of being, are we merely left “to prepare for a possible shift in our self-understanding? (italics mine)? Is this all we can do? Is it necessarily the case that such a shift “cannot come as a result of our own will?” – and work – but only from “a destiny outside our control?” Does this mean we leave to God the matter of bringing about a paradigm shift? Granted our fears and the importance of not being controlled by fears, as well as our “anthropocentric leanings,” should we be as cautious as Zimmerman suggests about out disposition “to want to do something” or “to act decisively in the face of the current threat?” In spite of the importance of our taking on the anxiety of our finitude and our present limitation, does it follow that “we should be willing for the worst (i.e. an all-out nuclear war) to occur”? Zimmerman wrongly, I contend, equates “resistance” with “denial” when he says that “as long as we resist and deny the possibility of nuclear war, that possibility will persist and grow stronger.” He also wrongly perceives “resistance” as presupposing a clinging to the “order of things that now prevails.” Resistance connotes opposing, and striving to defeat a prevailing state of affairs that would allow or encourage the “worst to occur.” I submit, against Zimmerman, that we should not, in any sense, be willing for nuclear war or omnicide to occur. (This is not to suggest that we should be numb to the possibility of its occurrence.) Despite Zimmerman’s elaborations and refinements his Heideggerian notion of “letting beings be” continues to be too permissive in this regard. In my judgment, an individual’s decision not to act against and resist his or her government’s preparations for nuclear holocaust is, as I have argued elsewhere, to be an early accomplice to the most horrendous crime against life imaginable – its annihilation. The Nuremburg tradition calls not only for a new way of thinking, a “new internationalism” in which we all become co-nurturers of the whole planet, but for resolute actions that will sever our complicity with nuclear criminality and the genocidal arms race, and work to achieve a future which we can no longer assume. We must not only “come face to face with the unthinkable in image and thought” (Fox) but must act now - with a “new consciousness” and conscience - to prevent the unthinkable, by cleansing the earth of nuclear weaponry. Only when that is achieved wll ultimate violence be removed as the final arbiter of our planet’s fate.

[Ronald E. Santoni, Phil. Prof @ Denison, 1985, Nuclear War, ed. Fox and Groarke, p. 156-7]

Zimmerman calls for a “paradigm shift” it is not clear that suggestions are sufficient to “wind down” the arms race before it leads to omnicide does it follow that “we should be willing an all-out nuclear war) to occur”? Zimmerman wrongly equates “resistance” with “denial” “letting beings be” continues to be too permissive an individual’s decision not to act against and resist his or her government’s preparations for nuclear holocaust is, to be an early accomplice to the most horrendous crime against life imaginable – its annihilation.

Their alternative dooms us to extinction – only pragmatic political action can solve and allow the space for metaphysical investigation. This also answers their argument that ontology outweighs nuclear war

Kritik Answers and Framework - UNT 2013.html5

North Texas (UNT)

Kritik Answers

2013

RAY SUAREZ: As cameras flashed, the newly re-elected U.S. president met this afternoon with the newly elected president of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto, who takes office Saturday. BARACK OBAMA: Mexico has become not simply an important bilateral partner, but is today a very important multilateral, multinational leader on a whole range of issues from energy to climate change. And we look forward to working with Mexico not only on regional issues, but also on global issues. ENRIQUE PENA NIETO, Mexican president-elect (through translator): We also share a very important vision, a vision of creating more jobs. We know this is very important not only for the American people, but also for the Mexican people, for both our nations, but not only that. We also have the opportunity to integrate North America to be participating in this part of the world. RAY SUAREZ: Their most immediate challenge may be the surge of drug violence in recent years. Outgoing Mexican President Felipe Calderon waged war on the cartels at a cost of 60,000 dead over six years. But last summer, Pena Nieto told the NewsHour's Margaret Warner there has to be a better way. ENRIQUE PENA NIETO (through translator): It is very clear that, after several years of this fight on drug trafficking, we have more drug consumption and drug use and drug trafficking. That means that we're not moving in the right direction. Things are not working. And I'm not saying that we should legalize. It's exactly the opposite. I'm against legalization, but with a debate where countries in the hemisphere, and especially the U.S., should participate in this broad debate to redefine the way in which we fight drug trafficking. RAY SUAREZ: The two presidents will also have to confront illegal immigration from Mexico to the U.S. The issue was largely ignored by Mr. Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, in the fall campaign. Since Election Day, when they lost Latino voters by a lopsided margin, Republicans have begun joining calls for reforms. It's also an issue with potential economic repercussions on both sides of the border. Mexico and the U.S. have become vital trading partners as the Mexican economy booms. It now ranks as the second largest Latin American economy behind Brazil's. RAY SUAREZ: For more on the president's meeting with Pena Nieto and the U.S. and Mexico's war on drugs, I'm joined by Shannon O'Neil, a senior fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. Shannon O'Neil, first to you. At any given moment, the president of these two countries have plenty to talk about. But at this very moment with two new administrations about to begin, what are the top agenda items in the Mexico-U.S. relationship? SHANNON O'NEIL, Council on Foreign Relations: Well, as you heard from the press release, one of the big issues that Mexico comes with is the economic issue and the economic ties between the two nations. Mexico is coming and wanting to bring this fully on to the agenda. It played second fiddle to security over the last presidency of President Calderon. So, they're coming and saying, this is a big issue for Mexico. It's also a big issue for the United States. So, that was front and center today and will be as these teams go forward talking to each other.

PBS 12 (“How U.S.-Mexico Relations May Shift Under President-Elect Enrique Pena Nieto” PBS Newshour, November 27 2012, http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/world/july-dec12/mexico1_11-27.html) MR

U.S. president met with the president of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto Mexico has become not simply an important bilateral partner, but a very important multilateral, multinational leader on issues from energy to climate change we look forward to working with Mexico on global issues We share a vision to integrate North America Their most immediate challenge may be the surge of drug violence Mexico and the U.S. have become vital trading partners what are the top agenda items in the Mexico-U.S. relationship? one of the big issues that Mexico comes with is the economic issue Mexico is wanting to bring this fully on to the agenda. It played second fiddle to security this is a big issue for Mexico

Economic ties are a priority for Mexico

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Two issues -- security and immigration -- often get too much attention when it comes to talking about the U.S.-Mexico relationship, U.S. President Barack Obama said Thursday. Now, Obama said, it's time to forge deeper economic connections to create more jobs and more trade on both sides of the border. "That's the focus of my visit," he told reporters after meeting with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto in the country's capital. But even as Obama and Peña Nieto pushed to shift the tone more toward trade and economics, security issues loomed large over Thursday's meeting. Obama visiting major trade partners Obama faces reality in Mexico drug war Peña Nieto said his government remains committed to fighting organized crime, but that the United States and Mexico must "cooperate on the basis of mutual respect, to be more efficient in our security strategy that we are implementing in Mexico." Obama stressed that the countries will continue to cooperate closely on security, but he didn't specify how. "I agreed to continue our close cooperation on security, even as that nature of that close cooperation will evolve," he said. It's up to the Mexican people, Obama said, "to determine their security structures and how it engages with other nations, including the United States." In the meantime, he said, the United States remains committed to reducing the demand for drugs north of the border, and the southward flow of illegal guns and cash that help fuel violence. "I think it's natural that a new administration here in Mexico is looking carefully at how it's going to approach what is obviously a serious problem," Obama said, "and we are very much looking forward to cooperating in any ways that we can to battle organized crime." High-profile cartel takedowns were a hallmark of former President Felipe Calderon's tenure. Peña Nieto has vowed to take a different approach, focusing more on education problems and social inequality that he says fuel drug violence. The details of his policies are still coming into focus, and analysts say his government has deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight. Before Obama's arrival, a spate of news reports this week on both sides of the border detailed changes in how Mexico cooperates with the United States. Under the new rules, all U.S. requests for collaboration with Mexican agencies will flow through a single office, Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong told Mexico's state-run Notimex news agency. It is a drastic change from recent years, when U.S. agents enjoyed widespread access to their Mexican counterparts. Critics have expressed concerns that Peña Nieto's government will turn a blind eye to cartels or negotiate with them -- something he repeatedly denied on the campaign trail last year. On Tuesday -- two days before Obama's arrival -- his government arrested the father-in-law of Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, head of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel and one of the country's most-wanted drug lords. Speaking to reporters after his meeting with Obama on Thursday, Peña Nieto emphasized the importance of reducing violence, and also the importance of Mexico's relationship with the United States extending beyond the drug war. "We don't want to make this relationship targeted on one single issue," he said. "We want to place particular emphasis on the potential in the economic relationship between Mexico and the United States."

Shoichet 5/2/13 (Catherine E. Shoichet, “U.S., Mexican presidents push deeper economic ties; security issues still key” CNN, May 2 2013, http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/02/world/americas/mexico-obama-visit) MR

security and immigration get too much attention when it comes to the U.S.-Mexico relationship it's time to forge deeper economic connections to create more jobs and more trade on both sides of the border. But even as Obama and Nieto pushed to shift the tone toward trade and economics, security issues loomed large Nieto said the U S and Mexico must "cooperate on the basis of mutual respect Nieto vowed to take a different approach his government deliberately tried to shift drug violence out of the spotlight. It is a drastic change Nieto emphasized the importance of Mexico's relationship with the U S extending beyond the drug war. "We don't want to make this relationship targeted on one single issue We want to place particular emphasis on the potential in the economic relationship between Mexico and the U S

Security and immigration don’t solve – Nieto wants an economic partnership

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The border situation, at its core, is not an economic issue, a cultural issue, or a racial issue. It is a national security issue. The record is unmistakably clear. In 2001 [1], the brother of a Hezb'allah military chief illegally entered the United States by crossing the Mexican border. He then settled in Dearborn, Michigan and raised money for Hezb'allah [2]. In 2002, illegal immigrants from Lebanon who were thought to have ties to Hezb'allah were smuggled into the United States via the Mexican border, according to a congressional report: In December 2002, Salim Boughader Mucharrafille, a café owner in Tijuana, Mexico, was arrested for illegally smuggling more than two hundred Lebanese illegally into the United States, including several believed to have terrorist ties to Hezbollah [3]. The congressional report also revealed that the FBI has confirmed that persons from al-Qaeda-linked nations have been known to disguise themselves as Hispanic immigrants: Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller has confirmed in testimony "that there are individuals from countries with known al-Qa'ida connections who are changing their Islamic surnames to Hispanic-sounding names and obtaining false Hispanic identities, learning to speak Spanish and pretending to be Hispanic Immigrants [4]. Furthermore, the report contained this sobering assessment of the border situation by Sigifredo Gonzalez, Jr., sheriff of Zapata County in Texas: I dare to say that at any given time, daytime or nighttime, one can get on a boat and traverse back and forth between Texas and Mexico and not get caught. If smugglers can bring in tons of marijuana and cocaine at one time and can smuggle 20 to 30 persons at one time, one can just imagine how easy it would be to bring in 2 to 3 terrorists or their weapons of mass destruction across the river and not be detected. Chances of apprehension are very slim [5]. And terrorists indeed have set their eyes on the vulnerability of our border. Just last year, an al-Qaeda recruiting video put forth this plot: Four pounds of anthrax -- in a suitcase this big -- carried by a fighter through tunnels from Mexico into the U.S. are guaranteed to kill 330,000 Americans within a single hour if it is properly spread in population centers there. What a horrifying idea; 9/11 will be small change in comparison....There is no need for airplanes, conspiracies, timings and so on [6]. Yet plotting to take advantage of the Mexican border is not new to al-Qaeda. Back in 2004, a Time magazine article reported that captured al-Qaeda operative, Sharif al-Masri, had said that al-Qaeda had considered smuggling nuclear materials into the United States through Mexico. The article also revealed that "U.S. and Mexican intelligence conferred about reports from several al-Qaeda detainees indicating the potential use of Mexico as a staging area "to acquire end-stage chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear material" [7].

Petersen 10 (Norah Petersen, “The War on Terror at the Mexican Border” The American Thinker, August 2 2010, http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/08/the_war_on_terror_at_the_mexic.html) MR

The border situation is a national security issue. The record is unmistakably clear. In 2001 the brother of a Hezb'allah military chief illegally entered the U S by crossing the Mexican border illegal immigrants from Lebanon were smuggled into the U S via the Mexican border the FBI has confirmed that persons from al-Qaeda-linked nations have been known to disguise themselves as Hispanic immigrants at any given time one can get on a boat and traverse back and forth between Texas and Mexico and not get caught. If smugglers can bring in tons of marijuana and cocaine at one time one can just imagine how easy it would be to bring in 2 to 3 terrorists or their weapons of mass destruction across and not be detected. Chances of apprehension are very slim terrorists set their eyes on the vulnerability of our border. plotting to take advantage of the Mexican border is not new to al-Qaeda. al-Qaeda had considered smuggling nuclear materials into the U S through Mexico .S. and Mexican intelligence conferred about reports from several al-Qaeda detainees indicating the use of Mexico as a staging area "to acquire end-stage chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear material

The threat of border terrorism is real – nuclear, chemical and biological WMD smuggling

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

What all scholars and observers agree, including skeptical Khor, is that Mexico was perceived as a fair and honest host. Major negotiating blocs and key countries were able to see at least one of their top priorities in the final agreement while remaining flexible on other pieces to find common ground. The COP president managed to put together a package that required everyone to compromise, but not so much that a country could not agree to the final package (Morgan 2010). Reward and coercion tactics - Mexico is one of the first developing countries who announced the voluntary emission reduction targets. Mexico also suggested the creation of the Green Climate Fund, which was eventually adopted as a part of the COP decision. Mexico’s commitment to participate in the global effort to curb climate change and its ownership of the finance agenda cast the government as a genuine partner in international cooperation. Personal Skills (diplomacy) C. Findings - Under the full support from the Mexican President Felipe Calderon, the Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister Patricia Espinoza took assumed the role of President and led the entire process of COP16 from opening to closing. Her close cooperation with the Executive Secretary of the UNFCCC Secretariat Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica brought the COP16 to a successful conclusion. The impressive performance of two women from Latin America set an inspiring precedent (Araya 2011). This is compared by the COP15 where both the COP president and the Executive Secretary were from rich western countries. The impasse at the UNFCCC negotiations was mostly due to mistrust between the parties, particularly between developing and developed. This particular characteristic of the climate negotiations’ deadlock may be recuced when the negotiations are led by a developing country. The international environment and nature of issues during the two negotiations were overall similar. The conflict between developed and developing countries was wide and deep and the issues involved in the negotiations were complex in nature with various interests at stake. The two presidencies adopted different approaches; while Denmark tried to raise international awareness of the importance of reaching an agreement, Mexico downplayed the expected outcome of the negotiation. As a result, parties at Copenhagen were extremely anxious for the contents of a possible outcome, which created a more contentious environment. On the other hand, parties at Cancun were concerned about the total failure of negotiations, which made negotiators more cooperative in reaching an agreement. Organization-specific features, particularly the consensus-based decision making rules, were the same in both negotiations. However, Denmark and Mexico took different approaches. While the Danish presidency failed to formalize the Copenhagen Accord as a UN document due to a few countries’ objection, Mexico overcame the objection and successfully announced the Cancun Agreements as COP decisions. The Mexican president saved the Cancun Agreements from a veto, by saying “consensus is not unanimity.” Although the Mexican government’s approach is controversial, it was a creative interpretation of the decision making rule of the institution, which received general acceptance by other parties. The two presidencies also differ in employing leadership tactics effectively. Observation tactics: Mexico was in a better position to have more information regarding parties’ positions and bottom-lines because the Cancun negotiation was basically an extension of the Copenhagen negotiations. More information on positions and options was available after Copenhagen. Also, it sought after close communication and cooperation with countries in Latin America, with which Mexico exercised an effective leadership throughout the COP meeting. Formation tactics: While Denmark failed in agenda management (e.g., scandal over leakage of Danish single-text earlier in the COP meetings) and procedural management of sub-groups and small-group meetings (due to a lack of transparency and inclusiveness), Mexico succeeded in both. Instead of focusing on mitigation issues, Mexico’s single text focused on finance, adaptation, and technology transfer issues, which could attract both developed and developing countries. Also Mexico maintained transparency and inclusiveness throughout the process, which increased its legitimacy as an honest broker and impartial chair.

Park 11 – Research Fellow at the Division of Climate and Air Quality, the Korea Environment Institute, and a member of the State of New York Bar (Siwon Park, “The Power of Presidency in UN Climate Change Negotiations: Comparison between Denmark and Mexico” Korea Environment Institute, Hills Governance Center at Yonsei, August 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/120220_HGCY_Working_Paper_No_1201.pdf) MR

all scholars and observers agree that Mexico was a fair and honest host. Major negotiating blocs and key countries were able to see at least one of their top priorities in the final agreement while remaining flexible on other pieces to find common ground Mexico’s commitment to participate in the global effort to curb climate change cast the government as a genuine partner in international cooperation. Mexico downplayed the expected outcome of the negotiation. parties were concerned about the total failure of negotiations, which made negotiators more cooperative in reaching an agreement. The Mexican president saved the Cancun Agreements from a veto, by saying “consensus is not unanimity.” it was a creative interpretation of the decision making rule of the institution, which received general acceptance by other parties. Mexico was in a better position to have more information regarding parties’ positions and bottom-lines in agenda management and procedural management of sub-groups and small-group meetings Mexico succeeded Instead of focusing on mitigation issues, Mexico’s single text focused on finance, adaptation, and tech transfer issues, which attract developed and developing countries Mexico maintained transparency and inclusiveness throughout the process, which increased its legitimacy as an honest broker and impartial chair.

Mexico is key to international climate cooperation

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

In December 2010, the 16th Conference of Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ended with adopting Cancun Agreements as official decisions under the UN process. The international community determined the meeting a success. This was a substantial change compared to the previous year’s Copenhagen climate conference, which failed to reach consensus at the official level, and thus having come under severe criticism as “diplomatic failure”. This paper aims to explain the stark contrast between the two consecutive COP meetings and argues that the leadership style of the president of the conference is one important factor propelling negotiations forward. While current literature scarcely addresses the role of the president, this paper explores multiple variables that condition the president’s effectiveness in moving negotiations forward. This paper concludes that the Mexican government successfully chaired the negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability, which the Danish government lacked. In particular, its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators, which in turn made the parties tend to cooperate better. More importantly, the case study reveals that the Mexican government had a significant influence on given conditions of the negotiation process, such as the international environment surrounding the negotiation and the decision making rules.

Park 11 – Research Fellow at the Division of Climate and Air Quality, the Korea Environment Institute, and a member of the State of New York Bar (Siwon Park, “The Power of Presidency in UN Climate Change Negotiations: Comparison between Denmark and Mexico” Korea Environment Institute, Hills Governance Center at Yonsei, August 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/120220_HGCY_Working_Paper_No_1201.pdf) MR

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change determined a success the Mexican government successfully chaired negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators, which made the parties cooperate better the Mexican government had a significant influence on conditions of the negotiation process

Mexico is a key player in climate agreements

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

This paper concludes that the Mexican government successfully chaired the negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability. In particular, its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators, which in turn made the parties tend to cooperate better. More importantly, the case study reveals that the Mexican government had a significant influence on given conditions of the negotiation process, such as the international environment surrounding the negotiation and the decision making rules. The Mexican government’s skillful management tactics and leadership in shaping the context of the bargaining further helped the deadlocked negotiations to reach a global deal.

Park 11 – Research Fellow at the Division of Climate and Air Quality, the Korea Environment Institute, and a member of the State of New York Bar (Siwon Park, “The Power of Presidency in UN Climate Change Negotiations: Comparison between Denmark and Mexico” Korea Environment Institute, Hills Governance Center at Yonsei, August 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/120220_HGCY_Working_Paper_No_1201.pdf) MR

the Mexican government successfully chaired negotiations with excellent agenda management and process management capability its transparent and embracing manner in handling sub-group meetings and the production of a single negotiation text facilitated trust among negotiators, which made the parties cooperate better. the Mexican government had significant influence on negotiation such as the international environment surrounding the negotiation and the decision making rules. The Mexican government’s skillful management tactics and leadership in shaping the context of the bargaining further helped negotiations to reach a global deal.

Mexico is extremely significant in international climate cooperation

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The Copenhagen experience has served as a strong reminder of the importance of inclusiveness and transparency in ensuring genuine multilateral cooperation in addressing climate change (Vina, Ang & Dulce 2011). After having watched ‘Hopenhagen’ result in ‘Brokenhagen,’ interest and expectation among civil society and international media, as well as politicians around the world was substantially lower than the year before. At the same time, however, there was significant pressure on UNFCCC negotiators to make the Cancun meeting a success. Failure would have meant the end of the UNFCCC process, which most governments wanted to avoid. This likely increased the negotiators’ willingness to find solutions and make compromise. The Mexican presidency was well aware of these dynamics. During the intercessional meetings in 2010, the Mexican presidency saw the significance of delicately producing a negotiation text which reflected “a balanced set of outcomes.” The Mexican Presidency deliberately emphasized that the goal of Cancun was to adopt a “package of decisions” at the conclusion of the Cancun climate meeting in December 2010 (Vina, Ang & Dulce 2011). At the beginning of the Cancun Conference, it was made clear by several Parties that they interpreted a “balanced package” as one that respected the two-track approach of the AGW-LCA and AWG-KP, balanced elements of the Bali Action Plan, reflected a degree of balance in detail, and did not require a future legally-binding outcome (Vina, Ang & Dulce 2011). The complexity of the climate change issue was the same, and the conflicting interests between developing and developed countries were the same as the previous year. However, the Mexican president was a key player setting the right tone for the negotiation atmosphere, and diligently achieved the realistic goal of the Cancun meeting aspired by parties involved.

Park 11 – Research Fellow at the Division of Climate and Air Quality, the Korea Environment Institute, and a member of the State of New York Bar (Siwon Park, “The Power of Presidency in UN Climate Change Negotiations: Comparison between Denmark and Mexico” Korea Environment Institute, Hills Governance Center at Yonsei, August 2011, http://csis.org/files/publication/120220_HGCY_Working_Paper_No_1201.pdf) MR

The Copenhagen experience served as a reminder of the importance of inclusiveness and transparency in ensuring genuine multilateral cooperation in addressing climate change the Mexican presidency saw the significance of producing a negotiation text which reflected “a balanced set of outcomes.” The Mexican Presidency emphasized the goal to adopt a “package of decisions” at the conclusion of the Cancun climate meeting the Mexican president was a key player setting the right tone for the negotiation atmosphere, and diligently achieved the realistic goal of the meeting

Mexico’s approach to climate is key to reaching a deal

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

However, environmental degradation itself is costly: more than 3% in Syria, Lebanon, Algeria, Morocco during the various years, 8% of GDP in Iran in 2002 (Croitoru and Sarraf, 2010). Further, much of environmental destruction is driven by market failures and inefficient policies. Correcting them can therefore result in a more efficient and productive economy, with increased output and prosperity. It may be possible to have green growth without too much of a cost, and possibly with some significant benefits. Reconciling the three pillars of sustainable development does require policy efforts, particularly for the environmental one. Green growth policies are a critical part of such efforts and an essential part of implementing sustainable development. Defining green growth Green growth is about making growth processes resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient without necessarily slowing them. Is it feasible? Direct contributions of environmental protection to economic growth are possible because the environment, which we can also think of as natural capital, is an input into the national production function, and environmental conservation can lead to increased inputs of natural capital and thus to an increase in income. The use of environmental assets is generally characterized by market failures – external costs and ill-defined property rights being common – and correcting these market failures can increase the effective supply of natural capital, an important input to the production function, hence increasing output; it can also increase human well-being directly by improving air and water quality, something that is not necessarily captured by conventional GDP statistics but is nevertheless the ultimate goal of economic policy. Indirect contributions of environmental protection to economic growth are also possible because world economies are far from their “optimum.” Indeed, there are many market failures that are not directly due to environmental issues, but that have negative consequences on the environment and the economy. Correcting these market failures thus has co-benefits that go beyond the environment. An obvious example is urban congestion which causes air pollution but also reduces the productivity and economies of scope typically offered by cities. These phenomena are not normally captured in analytical models of economic growth, partly because these do not generally model the role of natural capital in economic growth, and partly because they assume a first-best world. Moreover, the specification of the micro foundations of the growth process is at best weak in aggregative growth models. Since the potential for accelerated income growth thanks to green growth policies arises from market failures, they cannot be assessed using models unable to represent these market failures. Only models that represent unemployment and imperfection in the labor market can for instance investigate the gains from green policies in terms of jobs and employment. This paper aims at clarifying these concepts in an analytical framework and at proposing foundations for green growth, starting from and building on the long tradition of adapting growth theory to include the environment (e.g., Nordhaus, 1972; Dasgupta and Heal, 1974; Solow, 1974). The next section examines the analytical case for green growth, putting it in the context of existing growth paradigms. We then discuss the link with welfare—which is what we care about rather than growth per se. Section 4 explains the flaws in the “grow now, clean up later” argument and presents the analytical case for urgency. Section 5 reviews policy instruments to push our economies towards greener growth path, arguing that a narrow reliance on prices will not solve problems characterized by multiple market failures and behavioral challenges and that green strategies must rely on a broad policy mix. The last section concludes with key findings:  There is a strong analytical case for green growth, and one can identify channels that are theoretically able to make green policies contribute to economic growth; however, detailed and country- and context-specific analyses of each of these channels are required to conclude that this will in fact happen in any specific situation.  Looking at economic development and environmental protection in a common framework enables us to identify substantial synergies between them.  Social and political acceptability of green growth policies requires maximizing and highlighting benefits and co-benefits, including potential positive impacts on poverty alleviation and job creation, as well as managing unavoidable trade-offs.  Green growth policies need to focus on what needs to happen over the next 5-10 years before the world gets locked into settlement and production patterns that would be prohibitively expensive and complex to modify.

Hallegatte et al. 11 (Stéphane Hallegatte, World Bank, Washington DC, and Météo-France, Toulouse; Geoffrey Heal, Columbia University; Marianne Fay, World Bank; David Treguer, World Bank, “From Growth to Green Growth: A Framework” Office of the Chief Economist of the Sustainable Development Network, November 2011, https://openknowledge-worldbank-org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/10986/3670/WPS5872.txt?sequence=2) MR

environmental degradation is costly much of environmental destruction is driven by market failures and inefficient policies. Correcting them result in a more efficient and productive economy, with increased output and prosperity. It may be possible to have green growth without cost, and with significant benefits. Green growth policies are critical and essential part of implementing sustainable development. Green growth is about making growth processes resource-efficient, cleaner and more resilient Direct contributions of environmental protection to economic growth are possible the environment is an input into national production environmental conservation lead to increased inputs of natural capital and thus to an increase in income. correcting market failures increase the effective supply of natural capital hence increasing output; it can also increase human well-being directly by improving air and water quality green strategies must rely on a broad policy mix. There is a strong analytical case for green growth one can identify channels that make green policies contribute to economic growth Looking at economic development and environmental protection in a common framework enables us to identify substantial synergies between them. acceptability of green growth policies requires maximizing and highlighting benefits including positive impacts on poverty alleviation and job creation policies need to focus on the next 5-10 years before the world gets locked into production patterns

Green growth policies solve warming – now is crucial

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Hydroelectric and geothermal power are considered near-term sources of renewable carbon-free hydrogen. Geothermal energy is an under-exploited source of renewable hydrogen (Hoffmann calls it “the Sleeper resource” [70]). According to some estimates, 15 GW of new geothermal capacity will be developed over the next decade [7]. Iceland and Hawaii could potentially build their hydrogen economies based to a large extent on geothermal energy. The outlook for this technology depends on three factors: resource availability, reducing costs and technology improvement. U.S. DOE's Geothermal Technologies Center estimates that new geothermal plants are expected to operate at the costs in the range of 4–6 cents per kW h [7]. There is a renewed interest in OTEC. The techno-economic analysis suggests that the cost of electrical energy produced by an OTEC plant would be between a half and one-third of that of PV electricity [82]. Summarizing the renewable energy section, it is evident that although renewable resources currently produce insignificant fraction of the total energy output, they have an enormous technical and economical potential to meet global energy needs without an adverse environmental impact. In some areas, they are already competing with fossil-based electricity and hydrogen. Among the renewable resources, currently, wind energy can generate hydrogen at the lowest price, and this tendency will most likely remain in the future (In a recent survey of different renewable resources for hydrogen production, the authors concluded that wind-powered hydrogen may become a basis of the future hydrogen economy [11]).

Muradov and Veziroglu 8 (Nazim Z. Muradova, Florida Solar Energy Center, University of Central Florida, and T. Nejat Veziroğlu, Clean Energy Research Institute, University of Miami, ““Green” path from fossil-based to hydrogen economy: An overview of carbon-neutral technologies” International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, Volume 33, Issue 23, Pages 6804–6839, December 2008, SciVerse) MR

Hydroelectric and geothermal power are near-term sources of renewable carbon-free hydrogen 15 GW of new geothermal capacity will be developed over the next decade outlook for this technology depends on resource availability, reducing costs and technology improvement the cost of electrical energy produced by an OTEC plant would be between a half and one-third of that of PV electricity although renewable resources produce insignificant fraction of the total energy output, they have an enormous technical and economical potential to meet global energy needs without an adverse environmental impact

Renewables solve fast – no adverse impacts

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Renewable energy is not a new concept, but it continues to rapidly emerge as an alternative to fossil fuels and other deleterious energy sources. The potential of renewable energy sources is enormous as they, in theory, can produce many times the world's total energy demand. For example, some studies have indicated that roughly 1000 times the global energy requirement can be fulfilled by using solar energy; however, only 0.02% of this energy is currently utilized [3]. Renewable energy sources such as biomass, wind, solar, hydropower, and geothermal can provide sustainable energy services based on the utilization of routinely available indigenous resources. A transition to renewable energy systems is increasingly likely as their costs continue to decline while the cost of fossil fuels continues to rise. In the past 30 years, solar and wind power systems have continued to improve their performance characteristics and have experienced rapid sales growth. The capital and generation costs associated with such systems have also been reduced significantly. Because of these developments, market opportunities now exist to both innovate and take advantage of emerging markets in order to promote renewable energy technologies, particularly with additional assistance of governmental and popular sentiment. The development and use of renewable energy sources can enhance diversity in energy supply markets, contribute to securing long term sustainable energy supplies, help reduce local and global atmospheric emissions, and provide commercially attractive options to meet specific energy service needs. The use of renewable energy is also becoming increasingly important to slow the effects of climate change.

Devabhaktuni et al. 13 (Vijay Devabhaktuni, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Mansoor Alam, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Soma Shekar, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Sreenadh Reddy Depuru, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Robert C. Green II, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Douglas Nims, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toledo; Craig Near, Genziko Inc. “Solar energy: Trends and enabling technologies” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 19, Pages 555–564, March 2013, SciVerse) MR

Renewable energy continues to rapidly emerge as an alternative to fossil fuels and other deleterious energy sources. potential of renewable energy sources is enormous as they can produce many times the world's total energy demand. studies indicated that 1000 times the global energy requirement can be fulfilled by solar energy Renewable energy sources provide sustainable energy services based on utilization of routinely available indigenous resources. A transition to renewable energy is increasingly likely solar and wind power systems have continued to improve market opportunities exist to innovate and take advantage of emerging markets to promote renewable energy with additional assistance of government renewable energy enhance diversity in energy supply markets, contribute to securing long term sustainable energy supplies reduce local and global atmospheric emissions, and provide commercially attractive options to meet energy needs renewable energy slow climate change

Renewables are successful and can be deployed

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Measured by environmental impact and economic importance, the electricity industry is one of the most important sectors of the American economy. The generation of electricity is responsible for 38 percent of all U.S. carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and one third of all U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector is the largest single source of these emissions. It is also the largest source of sulfur dioxide (SO2), oxides of nitrogen (NOX), small particles, and other air pollutants. At the same time, electricity is critical to the U.S. economy. Recent annual national expenditures on electricity totaled $250 billion—making the electricity sector’s share of overall GDP larger than that of the automobile manufacturing industry and roughly equal in magnitude to that of the telecommunications industry. Expenditures alone, however, understate the importance of electricity to the U.S. economy. Nearly every aspect of productive activity and daily life in a modern economy depends on electricity for which there is, in many cases, no close substitute. As the most desirable form of energy for many uses, electricity use has grown faster than GDP. The Internet and computers would not operate without very reliable, high-quality electricity. Electricity also plays a major role in delivering modern comforts and easing household tasks, from running heating and cooling systems to washing clothes and dishes. It plays an even more important role in the commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, where it provides lighting and powers a variety of machines. In short, it is hard to imagine a modern economy functioning without large amounts of reliable, high-quality electricity. The economic and environmental importance of the electric power industry is, moreover, likely to grow in coming decades. Electricity demand has increased steadily over the last three decades and is projected to continue rising in the future, despite ongoing improvements in end-use efficiency. The industry, meanwhile, has undergone dramatic structural changes over the last 10 years, moving from a system of monopolies subject to state price regulation to a mixed system that now includes some elements of market competition in many states. After declining for 75 years, electricity prices have risen since 1970, making expenditures for carbon control a difficult proposition in the absence of mandatory GHG policy. The uncertain state of electricity market restructuring efforts around the country, particularly since the California crisis of 2001-2002, has increased perceptions of investor risk and sharply raised the cost of borrowing for capital investments by investor-owned utilities. In this context, reconciling growing demand for affordable and reliable electricity supplies with the need for substantial reductions in GHG and criteria pollutant emissions presents a significant challenge for policy-makers and for the electricity industry itself. Indeed, even if worldwide growth in demand for electric power ceased today, the industry’s current level of emissions is not sustainable. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at twice the level of pre-industrial times is likely to require emissions reductions of 65-85 percent below current levels by 2100. Clearly, reductions of this magnitude can be achieved only by taking action globally and across all sectors of the economy.1 But the electricity sector will undoubtedly need to assume a major share of the burden—in the United States and worldwide—given its centralized structure and contribution to overall emissions. This report explores the electric power industry’s options for reducing its GHG emissions over the next half century. Those options include new technologies that are still being developed—such as coal gasification with carbon capture and sequestration—as well as strategies that rely on existing technologies at different stages of commercial and technical readiness (such as nuclear and renewable generation), lower-carbon fuels (like natural gas), and efficiency improvements (both at the point of electricity production and end use). Many of these options, in addition to reducing CO2 emissions, also reduce conventional air pollutants. Although a power generating plant has a lifetime of 30-50 years, low-carbon technologies could claim a substantial fraction of the generation mix by mid-century—in time to help stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations within the next century or two. Some of these technologies, such as coal-based integrated gasification and combined cycle (IGCC) generation, still need to overcome basic cost, reliability, and market-acceptance hurdles; others, such as carbon capture and sequestration, have yet to be demonstrated on a large scale. Still others, such as wind, nuclear, or even (given recent fuel price increases) natural gas combined cycle power, are relatively well developed but face constraints in terms of siting, public acceptability, cost, or other factors.

Morgan et al. 5 – Carnegie Mellon University (Granger Morgan, Jay Apt, and Lester Lave, “The U.S. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change Mitigation” Pew Center on Global Climate Change, June 2005, http://wpweb2.tepper.cmu.edu/ceic/papers/USElectricPower.pdf) MR

the electricity industry is one of the most important sectors generation of electricity is responsible for 38 percent of CO2 emissions This sector is the largest single source of emissions every aspect of productive activity and daily life in a modern economy depends on electricity electricity use has grown faster than GDP. The Internet and computers would not operate without electricity. Electricity a major role in delivering modern comforts commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors The environmental importance of the electric power industry is likely to grow Electricity demand is projected to continue rising reconciling growing demand for electricity with the need for substantial reductions in GHG presents a significant challenge the industry’s current level of emissions is not sustainable. Stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide require emissions reductions reductions of this magnitude can be achieved only by taking action globally the electricity sector will need to assume a major share of the burden worldwide given its centralized structure and contribution to overall emissions. options for reducing its GHG emissions include new technologies low-carbon technologies could claim a substantial fraction of the generation mix technologies are well developed but face constraints in terms of siting, public acceptability, cost, or other factors.

Electricity is key to solve warming

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Nevertheless, the analysis presented in this report suggests that substantial GHG reductions could be achieved by the power sector—without major impacts on the economy or on consumer lifestyles—through the gradual deployment of lower-carbon options over the next several decades. At the same time, more immediate emissions reductions can be achieved through lowering demand by increasing the efficiency with which electricity is used; substituting natural gas for coal; improving efficiency at existing plants including highly efficient combined heat and power systems at suitable sites; expanding deployment of renewable generation technologies, including biomass co-firing of coal plants; and through the use of carbon offsets such as forestry projects and methane capture and collection. These immediate measures can reasonably be expected to reduce electricity growth and expand low-carbon electricity production in the United States from its 28 percent share in 2003, while also reducing emissions from higher-carbon generators. While initial steps to limit electricity sector CO2 emissions will have only a modest impact on total U.S. emissions, steady and deliberate efforts to promote long-term technological change in this sector eventually could produce significant climate benefits, given the industry’s share of current emissions. The dollar cost of achieving GHG reductions will depend to a significant extent on which of several possible technology pathways emerge as both feasible and cost-effective in the decades ahead. Increasing the efficiency with which electricity is used is important to any energy future. In one scenario, the successful commercialization of carbon capture and sequestration technology would allow for continued use of fossil fuels in combination with somewhat increased reliance on similarly priced wind resources. In another scenario, a new generation of nuclear technology proves acceptable and plays an expanded role in meeting future electricity needs. Future emissions reductions might need to be achieved chiefly through increased reliance on relatively more expensive natural gas and renewable energy. Some forms of renewable energy can certainly play a role, but just how large a role depends on a range of uncertain issues in terms of cost, technical performance, and power system architecture. A major scaleup of renewable energy would likely require a greatly enhanced transmission network and expensive energy storage technologies to compensate for the remoteness and intermittency of much of the wind and solar resource base. These issues will be resolved only through further research and expanded field experience.

Morgan et al. 5 – Carnegie Mellon University (Granger Morgan, Jay Apt, and Lester Lave, “The U.S. Electric Power Sector and Climate Change Mitigation” Pew Center on Global Climate Change, June 2005, http://wpweb2.tepper.cmu.edu/ceic/papers/USElectricPower.pdf) MR

substantial GHG reductions could be achieved by the power sector—without major impacts on the economy through the deployment of lower-carbon options immediate emissions reductions can be achieved through expanding deployment of renewable generation technologies These measures can reduce emissions from higher-carbon generators. steady and deliberate efforts to promote long-term technological change could produce significant climate benefits Increasing efficiency with which electricity is used is important to any energy future A major scaleup of renewable energy would require a greatly enhanced transmission network and expensive energy storage technologies These issues will be resolved only through further research and expanded field experience.

Renewables solve the power sector – key to reverse emissions

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Many participants in the environmental debate state that a global climate agreement will never materialize and that we can solve global warming without such a treaty. As a result, they focus on voluntary, unilateral, local or bottom-up solutions.6 These ideas are driven by good intentions that unfortunately do not guarantee good outcomes, witness the arguments on green paradox and rebound in the previous sections. It is sometimes argued that optimism is justified because historical energy transitions occurred without any international treaty. But this forgets that we are now because of climate risks pursuing an “economically illogical” transition, namely from very concentrated energy sources and carriers (notably oil and gas) to considerably less concentrated and thus less attractive forms of energy (notably wind and solar). This difference is illustrated by the indicator “energy return on energy investment” which for oil is in the range of 30 to 40 nowadays, while for solar PV it is far below 10 and for many types of biofuels even below 2 (Murphy and Hall, 2010). Technological progress may improve these figures, but to what extent is highly uncertain. Moreover, time is limited, that is, a rapid transition is necessary to prevent dangerous climate change. In this context we must not overlook that historical energy transitions such as from wood to coal, from coal to oil, and electrification lasted roughly 200, 85 and 65 years, respectively (Huberty and Zysman, 2010). I am the last to deny that an effective climate treaty will be extremely difficult to achieve, but in view of the foregoing arguments I simply see no substitute for it. Effective bottom-up solutions for global warming cannot emerge without such a treaty, as a consequence of the existence of the various escape routes discussed in Table 1 (Section 2). It is not a choice between bottom-up and top-down solutions. The top-down agreement has to stimulate the bottom-up solutions. A climate treaty will equalize the costs and prices of dirty energy at an international scale, and thus prevent that the competitive position of countries with a responsible, safe climate policy will be harmed. Despite risks of corruption and rent-seeking, some form of policy-induced carbon pricing, notably if realized through taxation, instead will offer a better chance to distribute both the costs of climate policy and its revenues in a maximally fair manner among all citizens of the world. This kind of policy actually will then reflect that humans should jointly share the ownership of, or the responsibility for, a stable and safe climate. Without a climate agreement stringent national policies are not just unlikely, but if implemented will lead to carbon leakage. This denotes the problem that if climate policy is not equally strict in different countries this will affect the (relative) competitiveness of these countries, which in turn will induce a relocation of “dirty industries” and a shift in “dirty trade”. As a result, reduction of carbon dioxide emissions will be limited (Kuik and Gerlagh, 2003). An international climate agreement or border taxes on dirty imports can support the emergence of equally strict policies in countries, which would mean avoiding carbon leakage. One might say now: “Waiting for a global climate treaty may be clearly highly desirable, but what is to be done then in the meantime in relation to growing emissions?” My response is that by following various other strategies than a climate agreement and associated stringent national carbon pricing, such as local, voluntary actions, ecolabelling, energy subsidies, we have the feeling that we are doing already a lot. But because of the escape routes discussed here the effectiveness of these strategies is disappointing. Instead, it is worthwhile to be patient and persistent, and put very much effort, time, intelligence, creativity, and – not to forget – money (through advertising and lobbying) into the negotiations for a stringent climate agreement. 15 Why has success in the negotiations for a post-Kyoto climate agreement proven so difficult? Besides political interest factors7, an important reason is the widespread idea that climate policy will be extremely costly or even disastrous to our economies. However, there are several reasons to believe that the costs will turn out to be moderate. For example, the research costs to make solar PV technologies profitable have been estimated to be equal to 0.017 percent of the combined GDP of all OECD countries, or 1 percent of the cost of the Iraq war, or – if one assumes a period of 10 years to make solar PV electricity cost-effective – 4 percent of global spending on weapons research during the same period (van den Bergh, 2010). It is just a matter of changing priorities. The Kyoto Protocol was quite quickly effectuated, namely a decade after climate change became a subject of study and debate in the social sciences, politics and society at large. One should of course not judge Kyoto too seriously in terms of its efficiency and effectiveness – it is best regarded as a litmus test for international environmental politics and as a stepping stone for something better. The time has come to use all possible leverage and creativity to accelerate the process of international climate negotiations. Without it renewable voluntary energy conservation, energy subsidies and energy standards will merely be strategies to escape an effective climate policy. With the current escape strategies we are only fooling ourselves.

Van den Bergh 11 – Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, and the Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Fellow of Tinbergen Institute and NAKE (Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, “Effective Climate-Energy Solutions, Escape Routes and Peak Oil” ICREA, Barcelona, Institute for Environmental Science and Technology and Department of Economics and Economic History, March 2011, http://icta.uab.cat.proxy.lib.umich.edu/99_recursos/1331896721815.pdf) MR

Many state that a global climate agreement will never materialize we are now because of climate risks pursuing an “economically illogical” transition to less concentrated and thus less attractive forms of energy wind and solar a rapid transition is necessary to prevent dangerous climate change. an effective climate treaty will be difficult but I see no substitute for it. Effective solutions for global warming cannot emerge without a treaty The top-down agreement has to stimulate the bottom-up solutions. A climate treaty will equalize the costs and prices of dirty energy at an international scale, and prevent that the competitive position of countries with safe climate policy will be harmed policy-induced carbon pricing offer a better chance to distribute the costs of climate policy and its revenues This kind of policy actually reflect that humans should jointly share the responsibility for, a stable and safe climate. Without a climate agreement stringent national policies are not just unlikely, but will lead to carbon leakage if climate policy is not equally strict in different countries this will affect the competitiveness of these countries, which induce a relocation of “dirty industries” reduction of carbon dioxide emissions will be limited international climate agreement support the emergence of equally strict policies in countries, which avoid carbon leakage. costs will be moderate It is just a matter of changing priorities. One should not judge Kyoto too seriously it is best regarded as a litmus test for international environmental politics and as a stepping stone for something better. The time has come to use all possible leverage and creativity to accelerate international climate negotiations

Global climate agreements solve emissions

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

¶ Life-Cycle Global Warming Emissions¶ In open-loop geothermal systems, approximately 10 percent of the air emissions are carbon dioxide, and a smaller amount of emissions are methane, a more potent global warming gas. Estimates of global warming emissions for open-loop systems are approximately 0.1 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour. In closed-loop systems, these gases are not released into the atmosphere, but there are a still some emissions associated with plant construction and surrounding infrastructure.¶ ¶ Enhanced geothermal systems, which require energy to drill and pump water into hot rock reservoirs, have life-cycle global warming emission of approximately 0.2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour [11].¶ ¶ To put this into context, estimates of life-cycle global warming emissions for natural gas generated electricity are between 0.6 and 2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour and estimates for coal-generated electricity are 1.4 and 3.6 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour [12].

USC, 13 Union of Concerned Scientists - a nonprofit science advocacy group based in the United States (“Environmental Impacts of Geothermal Energy” 3/5/13 http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-choices/renewable-energy/environmental-impacts-geothermal-energy.html) // czhang

In open-loop geothermal systems, approximately 10 percent of the air emissions are carbon dioxide, and a smaller amount of emissions are methane, a more potent global warming gas. global warming emissions for open-loop systems are 0.1 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour. In closed-loop systems, these gases are not released into the atmosphere Enhanced geothermal systems have life-cycle global warming emission of approximately 0.2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour To put this into context, natural gas generated electricity are between 0.6 and 2 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour and estimates for coal-generated electricity are 1.4 and 3.6 pounds of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt-hour

Geothermal has a very minimal negative effect on global warming

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The U.S. economy may not be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to slow its bond purchases later this year. That's the takeaway from economists after the government cut its estimate Wednesday of growth in the January-March quarter to a 1.8 percent annual rate, sharply below its previous estimate of a 2.4 percent rate. The main reason: Consumers spent less than previously thought. Most economists think growth will remain low as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to federal spending cuts and higher taxes. Growth is expected to reach an annual rate of only about 2 percent in the April-June quarter. Even if the economy improves slightly, it would be hard to meet the Fed's forecast of 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent growth for 2013. Chairman Ben Bernanke rattled investors last week when he said the Fed will likely slow its bond-buying this year if the economy continues to strengthen. The bond purchases have helped keep interest rates low. Bernanke added that if the economy weakens, the Fed won't hesitate to delay its pullback or even step up its bond purchases again. Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said that if the April-June quarter proves tepid, the Fed will be looking at three straight quarters of subpar growth. "The Fed won't taper (its bond purchases) under these conditions," Lee said. "They need convincing signs of a pickup." Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisers, said he suspects the Fed will wait until next year to slow its bond buying. Like most economists, Naroff thinks growth will pick up in the October-December quarter and strengthen in 2014. "If the Fed doesn't take notice of this revision to growth, they would run the risk of being perceived as largely clueless about the economy," Naroff said. Stocks surged Wednesday, a sign that many investors also suspect the economy may prove too weak for the Fed to begin scaling back its stimulus later this year. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 173 points in late-afternoon trading, and broader stock indexes also surged. Most of the revision to last quarter's growth was due to a decline in consumer spending to an annual rate of 2.6 percent. Though that pace is the fastest in two years, it's sharply below the 3.4 percent rate previously estimated. The downgraded estimate of growth was due in large part to weaker spending on services, such as travel, legal services, health care and utilities. Spending on long-lasting manufactured goods, considered a barometer of consumers' confidence in the economy, was stronger than previously estimated. Some economists said the lower estimate suggests that an increase in Social Security taxes that took effect this year might be squeezing consumers more than expected. The tax increase has reduced take-home pay for most Americans. A person earning $50,000 a year has roughly $1,000 less to spend. A high-earning couple has up to $4,500 less. "There was still acceleration in the growth of consumer spending -- just not as much," said Paul Edelstein, director of financial services at IHS Global Insight. The government's revisions also pointed to less export growth and weaker business investment spending, due mainly to less spending on buildings than previously estimated.

Crutsinger and Rugaber 6/26/13 (Martin Crutsinger and Christopher S. Rugaber, “U.S. economic growth was significantly slower in first quarter than originally reported” Associated Press, June 26 2013, http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_23544017/u-s-economic-growth-was-significantly-slower-first) MR

The U.S. economy may not be strong enough That's the takeaway from economists after the government cut its estimate of growth to 1.8 percent sharply below its previous estimate of 2.4 percent economists think growth will remain low as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to spending cuts and higher taxes. Growth is expected to reach an annual rate of only 2 percent Even if the economy improves slightly, it would be hard to meet the Fed's forecast for 2013 the Fed will be looking at three straight quarters of subpar growth. Stocks surged a sign that investors suspect the economy may prove too weak The Dow Jones rose 173 points revision to growth was due to a decline in consumer spending it's sharply below the rate previously estimated government's revisions pointed to less export growth and weaker business investment spending

Growth will continue to be slow – revised economic forecasts

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

After leading the way out of the global recession, China and other big developing economies now are growing slower, a significant shift in momentum that augers weaker world growth and softer demand for U.S. exporters. The slowdown in developing economies has been building for some time but has captured greater attention recently because of China's credit crunch and the prospects of monetary policy tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund cut its U.S. and global economic forecasts for this year and next, citing primarily slower growth in key developing nations as well as a deepening recession in the Eurozone. The IMF also noted that federal spending reductions in the U.S. were weighing on the recovery. The world economy will grow 3.1% this year, the Washington-based IMF said, down from its April projection of 3.3%. Growth also will be slower next year — 3.8% compared with an earlier 4% forecast. The IMF estimated that the U.S. economy would expand at a modest 1.7% rate this year and pick up next year to 2.7%. Both figures also are down 0.2 percentage points from the organization's projections in its April World Economic Outlook. Although part of the reason for the change in the U.S. forecast is the automatic federal spending cuts, known as the sequester, the U.S. economy and particularly American export manufacturers are likely to feel a pinch from slower growth in developing and emerging market economies.

Lee and Puzzanghera 7/9/13 (Don Lee and Jim Puzzanghera, “IMF lowers U.S. and global economic growth forecasts” LA Times, July 9 2013, http://articles.latimes.com/2013/jul/09/business/la-fi-imf-world-economy-20130710) MR

China and other big developing economies are growing slower, a significant shift in momentum that augers weaker world growth and softer demand for U.S. exporters. slowdown in developing economies has been building for some time the I M F cut its economic forecasts for this year and next, citing slower growth in key nations as well as a deepening recession in the Eurozone federal spending reductions in the U.S. were weighing on the recovery. the U.S. economy would expand at a modest 1.7% rate this year figures are down 0.2 percentage points U.S. economy and export manufacturers are likely to feel a pinch from slower growth in developing and emerging market economies.

Slow growth is building globally

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The U.S. economy showed fresh signs of slower growth in the second quarter, with factory activity slipping in the mid-Atlantic region while groundbreaking declined at home construction sites. Other data on Thursday showed a spike in new claims for jobless benefits last week as well as soft underlying inflation that could point to weak demand in the economy. "We are seeing a soft start for growth in the second quarter," said Sam Bullard, an economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. The data could raise concerns over the impact of a government austerity drive that began in January and the fallout from a recession in the euro zone. It could also increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep its money printing press running on overdrive to support the economy. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its gauge of factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region fell to minus 5.2 in May. Negative readings in the index point to a contraction in activity. Drops in new orders and in employment weighed on the index, which covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The report added to recent signs that weakness in manufacturing in March and April extended into May. "We are not rebounding from the recent swoon," said Jacob Oubina, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. "We are just muddling along." U.S. economic growth picked up in the first three months of the year after a dismal fourth quarter, but the April-June period is expected to show a more lackluster expansion as Washington's push to trim the budget deficit weighs on consumers and businesses. The federal government hiked taxes in January and initiated sweeping budget cuts in March. Signs of consumer weakness were evident in a report by Wal-Mart that sales fell 1.4 percent in the first quarter at its U.S. stores open at least a year. The data put downward pressure on U.S. stock prices, which were little changed at midday. It also pushed down yields on U.S. government debt, while the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.

Lange 5/16/13 (Jason Lange, “Evidence mounts on slower U.S. economic growth” Reuters, May 16 2013, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/16/us-usa-economy-prices-idUSBRE94F0J520130516) MR

The U.S. economy showed fresh signs of slower growth factory activity slipping while groundbreaking declined at construction sites. data showed a spike in claims for jobless benefits as well as inflation that point to weak demand We are seeing a soft start for growth We are not rebounding from the recent swoon We are just muddling along U.S. economic growth is expected to show lackluster expansion Signs of consumer weakness were evident data put downward pressure on U.S. stock prices It also pushed down yields on U.S. government debt, while the dollar weakened

Slow growth now – nothing to drive expansion

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The US economy appears to grow slower than expected in the second quarter, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday. "Recent indicators point to a sharper than expected slowdown in economic activity in the second quarter," IMF experts said in a report issued following annual consultations with American officials. "This reflects weakness in inventory accumulation and net exports as well as slower private consumption growth as suggested by retail sales in June." The pullback in consumer spending poses a sharp drag on growth as it fuels about two-thirds of activity in the world's largest economy. The US government is set to release its first estimate of gross domestic growth for the second quarter on Wednesday. First-quarter GDP growth was at a tepid annual rate of 1.8 per cent as the economy still struggles to recover from the Great Recession that ended four years ago.

Channel News Asia 7/26/13 (“IMF sees slower-than-expected US growth” July 26 2013, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/international/imf-sees-slower-than/757690.html) MR

The US economy appears to grow slower than expected the I M F said Recent indicators point to a sharper than expected slowdown in economic activity experts said This reflects weakness in inventory accumulation and exports as well as slower private consumption growth pullback in consumer spending poses a sharp drag on growth First-quarter GDP growth was at a tepid annual rate the economy still struggles to recover from the Great Recession

US is growing slowly – key indicators

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

First, growth continued to disappoint in major emerging market economies, reflecting, to varying degrees, infrastructure bottlenecks and other capacity constraints, slower external demand growth, lower commodity prices, financial stability concerns, and, in some cases, weaker policy support. Second, the recession in the euro area was deeper than expected, as low demand, depressed confidence, and weak balance sheets interacted to exacerbate the effects on growth and the impact of tight fiscal and financial conditions. Third, the U.S. economy expanded at a weaker pace, as stronger fiscal contraction weighed on improving private demand. The report says the threat to the major emerging-markets nations -- Brazil, Russia, India and China, known collectively as BRIC -- is from investors who continue to move funds from these countries to the U.S., where interest rates are rising. The rates are increasing as the Federal Reserve Bank continues to indicate it will slow or end its easy-cash policies. Last month, after Fed officials outlined a plan to end its quantitative easing, there was a significant outflow of cash from BRIC nations. IMF officials have publicly criticized the Fed for not being clearer about its exit plans. It wants the U.S. central bank to continue its $85 billion-a-month cash injections until at least the end of the year. The IMF cut its forecast for overall emerging-markets growth by 0.3 percentage point, forecasting a rate of 5 percent this year and 5.4 percent in 2014. It said that growth rates in Brazil, China and Russia were likely to see the largest declines. The global economy also faces challenges from the ongoing and expanding recession in the 17 countries that use the euro. The eurozone is now expected to contract by 0.6 percent this year, compared with the 0.4 percent decline predicted in April. The IMF lowered forecasts for U.S growth as well because it expects the budget cuts caused by the sequester to last until at least 2014. It said the U.S. economy will grow 1.7 percent in 2013, down from 1.9 in April, and 2.7 percent in 2014, down from 2.9 percent. The IMF's numbers are notably more pessimistic about the U.S. economy than those from the White House. Yesterday the Office of Management and Budget projected that domestic GDP will expand in 2013 at an annual rate of 2 percent. That's down from the 2.3 percent rate that the Obama administration assumed in its annual budget in April. The OMB also reduced its forecast for growth in 2014 to 3.1 percent, down a tick from 3.2 percent.

Von Hoffman 7/9/13 – work has appeared in outlets such as Harvard Business Review, NPR, Sierra magazine, Brandweek, CIO, The Boston Herald, TheStreet.com, CSO, and Boston Magazine (Constantine Von Hoffman, “IMF cuts growth forecast for U.S., world economies” CBS News MoneyWatch, July 9 2013, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57592838/imf-cuts-growth-forecast-for-u.s-world-economies/) MR

growth continued to disappoint in major emerging market economies reflecting infrastructure bottlenecks slower external demand growth, lower commodity prices, financial stability concerns, and weaker policy support the recession in the euro area was deeper than expected the U.S. economy expanded at a weaker pace, as stronger fiscal contraction weighed on improving private demand. interest rates are rising there was significant outflow of cash from BRIC nations The IMF cut its forecast for overall growth The global economy faces challenges from the ongoing and expanding recession The IMF lowered forecasts for U.S growth because it expects the budget cuts caused by the sequester to last until 2014 IMF's numbers are notably pessimistic OMB reduced its forecast for growth

Worldwide growth has stalled

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow throughout this year, according to a survey of top corporate executives, despite a buoyant stock market and rising consumer confidence. Members of the Business Roundtable, a lobbying group for CEOs at large U.S. companies, said they expect the nation’s economy to expand 2.2% this year, up slightly from the 2.1% growth they forecast previously. The latest survey, conducted in May and released Wednesday, found that 78% of the 141 respondents expect their sales to increase in the next six months, while just 37% plan to boost their company’s capital spending and 32% expect to expand their workforces during the same period. “The survey results reflect an economy that is on a slow road to recovery,” Jim McNerney, the CEO of Boeing Co. and chairman of the Business Roundtable, told reporters. The nation’s top executives are seeing job growth that is “muted, pretty across the board,” Mr. McNerney said, though the auto manufacturing and health care industries are bright spots that are hiring more. The U.S. economy is being held back by an international environment in which the European economy remains mired in a “very negative situation” while emerging economies continue to grow at a healthy clip, Mr. McNerney said. He added that the domestic economy is also suffering from legislative uncertainty, as debates over immigration, tax and budget overhauls drag on. Resolution for these issues could “provide a tailwind” to the economy, Mr. McNerney said, adding that business investment “remains constrained until we get some certainty.”

House 6/12/13 (Jonathan House, “Top U.S. CEOs Expect Slow Economic Growth Ahead” Wall Street Journal, June 12 2013, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/06/12/top-u-s-ceos-expect-slow-economic-growth-ahead/) MR

The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow Members of the Business Roundtable said they expect the nation’s economy to expand 2.2% this year survey results reflect an economy that is on a slow road to recovery The nation’s top executives are seeing job growth that is muted across the board The U.S. economy is being held back by the European economy the economy is also suffering from legislative uncertainty

On a slow road to recovery – business insiders

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The 195,000 new jobs reported for June was somewhat better than most economists had expected. The job gains, together with upward revisions to the prior two months' data, raised average growth for the last three months to 196,000. While this may lead some to be dancing in the streets, those who actually care about the economy may want to hold off. First, it is important to remember the size of the hole the economy is in. We are down roughly 8.5 million jobs from our trend growth path. We also need close to 100,000 jobs a month to keep pace with the underlying growth rate of the labor market. This means that even with the relatively good growth of the last few months, we were only closing the gap at the rate of 96,000 a month. At this pace, it will take up more than seven years to fill the jobs gap. It is easy to miss the size of the jobs gap since the current 7.6% unemployment rate doesn't seem that high. However, the main reason that the unemployment rate has fallen from its peak of 10% in the fall of 2009 is that millions of people have dropped out of the labor force and stopped looking for jobs. These people are no longer counted as being unemployed. If we look at the employment to population ratio – the percentage of people who have jobs – this has risen just 0.5 percentage points from the low-point of the downturn. It is still down by more than 4.0 percentage points from its pre-recession level, and by 6.0 full percentage points from the peak hit in the boom of 2000. After severe downturns in the 1970s and 1980s, we had months in which the economy created over 400,000 jobs. And this was in a labor market that was more than one-third smaller. That is the sort of job growth that we should be seeing after a recession like the one we saw in 2008-2009. Unfortunately, such growth is nowhere in sight. Of course, the weakness of the job market is not a surprise. The economy has been growing at less than a 2% annual rate for the last three years. In this context, it is surprising that we are seeing job growth of even 100,000 a month. Most analysts put the economy's trend rate of growth in the range of 2.2-2.5%. This means that the economy has to grow at this pace just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Baker 7/5/13 (Dean Baker, “Upbeat June jobs report still leaves US economy in a deep hole” The Guardian, July 5 2013, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/jul/05/june-jobs-report-us-economy) MR

The 195,000 new jobs reported for June was somewhat better than economists had expected While this may lead some to be dancing in the streets, those who actually care about the economy may want to hold off. it is important to remember the size of the hole the economy is in. We are down 8.5 million jobs from our trend growth path even with relatively good growth it will take more than seven years to fill the jobs gap the employment to population ratio has risen just 0.5 percentage points from the low-point of the downturn. It is still down by more than 6 percent growth is nowhere in sight the weakness of the job market is not a surprise. The economy has been growing at less than a 2% annual rate for the last three years. the economy has to grow at this pace just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Don’t be fooled by their upbeat statistics

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Growth—even measured with such an imperfect metric as GDP—is now recognized as a critical driver of poverty reduction and improvements in social indicators. It has resulted in an 80% increase in GDP per capita in developing countries over the last twenty years despite continued increases in population. Living standards have improved for many, with more than 500 million rising out of poverty and remarkable progress in literacy and education, life expectancy, infant, child and maternal mortality and malnutrition indicators. And while much of the global poverty reduction has been driven by China, other countries that experienced growth also saw rapid poverty reduction. Ghana for example grew much faster than the African average and managed to reduce its poverty rate from 51 to 30 percent between 1990 and 2005.

Hallegatte et al. 11 (Stéphane Hallegatte, World Bank, Washington DC, and Météo-France, Toulouse; Geoffrey Heal, Columbia University; Marianne Fay, World Bank; David Treguer, World Bank, “From Growth to Green Growth: A Framework” Office of the Chief Economist of the Sustainable Development Network, November 2011, https://openknowledge-worldbank-org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/10986/3670/WPS5872.txt?sequence=2) MR

Growth is a critical driver of poverty reduction and improvements in social indicators. It has resulted in an 80% increase in GDP per capita in developing countries despite increases in population. Living standards have improved for many, with progress in literacy and education, life expectancy mortality and malnutrition countries that experienced growth saw rapid poverty reduction

Growth drives poverty reduction

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Counterintuitively, as their power wanes, empires often plunge into ill-advised military misadventures. This phenomenon is known among historians of empire as “micro-militarism” and seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories, however briefly and catastrophically. These operations, irrational even from an imperial point of view, often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power.

McCoy 10 –Professor of History at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, BA from Columbia and PhD in Southeast Asia History from Yale (Alfred, “How America will Collapse (by 2025)”, SALON magazine, 12/06/10, http://www.salon.com/writer/alfred_mccoy/)//MM

as their power wanes, empires often plunge into military misadventures This phenomenon seems to involve psychologically compensatory efforts to salve the sting of retreat or defeat by occupying new territories, however briefly and catastrophically These operations, irrational even from an imperial point of view, often yield hemorrhaging expenditures or humiliating defeats that only accelerate the loss of power

Hegemonic decline risks imperial lashout – net worse than their turns

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The downward spiral the United States has taken was anything but inevitable. Washington has always had a choice in how to approach grand strategy. One popular option among some libertarians is isolationism. This approach is based on the assumption that there is no region outside the Western Hemisphere that is strategically important enough to justify expending American blood and treasure. Isolationists believe that the United States is remarkably secure because it is separated from all of the world’s great powers by two giant moats—the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans— and on top of that it has had nuclear weapons—the ultimate deterrent—since 1945. But in truth, there is really no chance that Washington will adopt this policy, though the United States had strong isolationist tendencies until World War II. For since then, an internationalist activism, fostered by the likes of the Rockefeller Foundation, has thoroughly delegitimized this approach. American policy makers have come to believe the country should be militarily involved on the world stage. Yet though no mainstream politician would dare advocate isolationism at this point, the rationale for this grand strategy shows just how safe the United States is. This means, among other things, that it will always be a challenge to motivate the U.S. public to want to run the world and especially to fight wars of choice in distant places. Offshore balancing, which was America’s traditional grand strategy for most of its history, is but another option. Predicated on the belief that there are three regions of the world that are strategically important to the United States—Europe, Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf—it sees the United States’ principle goal as making sure no country dominates any of these areas as it dominates the Western Hemisphere. This is to ensure that dangerous rivals in other regions are forced to concentrate their attention on great powers in their own backyards rather than be free to interfere in America’s. The best way to achieve that end is to rely on local powers to counter aspiring regional hegemons and otherwise keep U.S. military forces over the horizon. But if that proves impossible, American troops come from offshore to help do the job, and then leave once the potential hegemon is checked. Selective engagement also assumes that Europe, Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf are the only areas of the world where the United States should be willing to deploy its military might. It is a more ambitious strategy than offshore balancing in that it calls for permanently stationing U.S. troops in those regions to help maintain peace. For selective engagers, it is not enough just to thwart aspiring hegemons. It is also necessary to prevent war in those key regions, either because upheaval will damage our economy or because we will eventually get dragged into the fight in any case. An American presence is also said to be valuable for limiting nuclear proliferation. But none of these strategies call for Washington to spread democracy around the globe—especially through war. The root cause of America’s troubles is that it adopted a flawed grand strategy after the Cold War. From the Clinton administration on, the United States rejected all these other avenues, instead pursuing global dominance, or what might alternatively be called global hegemony, which was not just doomed to fail, but likely to backfire in dangerous ways if it relied too heavily on military force to achieve its ambitious agenda. Global dominance has two broad objectives: maintaining American primacy, which means making sure that the United States remains the most powerful state in the international system; and spreading democracy across the globe, in effect, making the world over in America’s image. The underlying belief is that new liberal democracies will be peacefully inclined and pro-American, so the more the better. Of course, this means that Washington must care a lot about every country’s politics. With global dominance, no serious attempt is made to prioritize U.S. interests, because they are virtually limitless. This grand strategy is “imperial” at its core; its proponents believe that the United States has the right as well as the responsibility to interfere in the politics of other countries. One would think that such arrogance might alienate other states, but most American policy makers of the early nineties and beyond were confident that would not happen, instead believing that other countries—save for so-called rogue states like Iran and North Korea—would see the United States as a benign hegemon serving their own interests.

Mearsheimer 11 – John J. Mearsheimer, the “R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago” Jan/Feb 2011 “Imperial By Design” http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0059.pdf

The downward spiral the United States has taken was anything but inevitable. Washington has always had a choice in how to approach grand strategy. One popular option among some libertarians is isolationism. there is really no chance that Washington will adopt this policy, an internationalist activism, fostered by the likes of the Rockefeller Foundation, has thoroughly delegitimized this approach. American policy makers have come to believe the country should be militarily involved on the world stage Offshore balancing is but another option there are three regions of the world that are strategically important to the United States it sees the United States’ principle goal as making sure no country dominates any of these areas as it dominates the Western Hemisphere Selective engagement also assumes that Europe, Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf are the only areas of the world where the United States should be willing to deploy its military might. It is a more ambitious strategy than offshore balancing in that it calls for permanently stationing U.S. troops in those regions to help maintain peace none of these strategies call for Washington to spread democracy around the globe—especially through war. The root cause of America’s troubles is that it adopted a flawed grand strategy the United States rejected all these other avenues, instead pursuing global dominance, or what might alternatively be called global hegemony, which was not just doomed to fail, but likely to backfire in dangerous ways if it relied too heavily on military force Global dominance has two broad objectives: maintaining American primacy and spreading democracy across the globe this means that Washington must care a lot about every country’s politics. With global dominance, no serious attempt is made to prioritize U.S. interests, because they are virtually limitless. This grand strategy is “imperial” at its core

US will cling to heg

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency announces $884,000 in grants available for the US-Mexico border region in Texas and New Mexico. The funds will be awarded under the Border 2020 U.S.-Mexico Environmental Program, in coordination with the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC). All proposals must be submitted by August 29, 2013. EPA will award grants to projects that reflect the goals of the Border 2020 program, especially those supporting work in the Texas/New Mexico border region. Project types include improving air quality monitoring networks; developing applications for reusing water; developing bilingual outreach campaigns to stop illegal dumping; updating sister city-plans; improving understanding of each country’s compliance and enforcement roles; and other projects that help fulfill the goals and objectives of Border 2020. Greater consideration will be given to proposals that leverage other resources and demonstrate measurable results.

Durant and Vela 13 (Jennah Durant and Austin Vela, “U.S. EPA Announces More Than $880,000 Available in Border Environmental Funding; Several workshops for grant applicants to be held in US and Mexico” EPA.gov, July 17 2013, http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/0/55AB6F22792B8E4185257BAB00698890) MR

The E P A announces $884,000 in grants for the US-Mexico border region funds will be awarded in coordination with the BECC EPA will award grants to projects improving air quality monitoring developing applications for reusing water; developing bilingual outreach campaigns to stop illegal dumping; updating sister city-plans; improving understanding of each country’s compliance and enforcement roles; and other projects

More funding was just allocated to the BECC

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is pleased to announce $1 Million in Border Environmental funding for the California/Baja California and Arizona/Sonora regions. The funds will be awarded under the Border 2020: U.S.-Mexico Environmental Program, in coordination with the Border Environment Cooperation Commission (BECC). Selected awards will average $50,000 each. All proposals must be submitted by July 31, 2013. EPA will award grants to projects that reflect the strategic goals of the Border 2020 program, including those that: reduce the disposal of trash and phosphates in the New River; develop educational projects on zero waste and sustainable materials management; assess the state of border environmental health; assess vehicle emissions at the international ports of entry, expand the use of decentralized wastewater systems in rural areas. Greater consideration will be given to proposals that leverage other resources and that demonstrate measurable results. Grant proposal workshops are being offered in California/Baja California and Arizona/Sonora regions, and will be announced on the EPA and BECC websites in the next few weeks. Successful applicants will be notified on August 30, 2013. The Border 2020 Program is a bi-national collaborative effort whose mission is to protect human health and the environment in the U.S.-Mexico border region. BECC is an international organization established for the purpose of preserving, protecting, and enhancing the environment in the U.S. – Mexico border region. EPA, through the Border 2020 Program, has supported environmental projects along the U.S.-Mexico border since 2005. Since then, over $6 million have been awarded to over 100 grantees in the California/Baja California Arizona/Sonora Region, with an additional $2.5 million leveraged by border partners.

Mogharabi 13 (Nahal Mogharabi, “U.S. EPA Announces $1 Million Available in Border Environmental Funding” EPA.gov, June 19 2013, http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/2dd7f669225439b78525735900400c31/96aec62f1f76b39f85257b8f0062a481!OpenDocument) MR

The E P A announce $1 Million in Border Environmental funding funds will be awarded in coordination with the BECC EPA will award grants to projects that reduce the disposal of trash and phosphates develop educational projects on zero waste assess the state of border environmental health assess vehicle emissions expand decentralized wastewater systems since 2005 over $6 million have been awarded to over 100 grantees with an additional $2.5 million leveraged by border partners

Grants to the BECC now

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

While renewable energy investment globally fell by 11 percent in 2012, renewable energy financing increased by 127 percent in Latin American countries, excluding Brazil. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, this included gains of 595 percent in Mexico, 313 percent in Chile, 285 percent in Uruguay, and 176 percent in Peru. In total, renewable energy investments in Latin America reached $9.7 billion in 2012. When adding the important renewable energy portfolio of Brazil ($5.2 billion in 2012), the renewable energy sector in Latin America is growing and will continue to attract significant capital in the coming years. A combination of favorable government policies, receptiveness to foreign investment, and attractive regulatory regimes has drawn investors to renewable energy projects in the region. These issues were debated in Washington on July 30 during a roundtable discussion on financing renewable energy in Latin America at the Council of the Americas, held under the auspices of the Council’s Energy Action Group. The conditions for renewable energy in Latin America are favorable. From the photovoltaic potential of the Atacama Desert in Chile to the many rivers that feed into hydroelectric dams in Brazil to the fields of African palm oil in Colombia, developers have been drawn to the region due to a unique geography that offers great potential for renewable feedstocks. Countries are also beginning to adopt renewable energy standards. Chile is leading the way with its 20/20 renewable plan—20 percent of the country’s electrical grid powered by renewable energy by 2020. While the target may be a long shot, the initiative demonstrates that countries in the region are serious about developing their renewable energy potential. A solid investment climate usually contains a strong regulatory mechanism. For investments to prosper, regulatory regimes must honor rule of law and contract enforcement. Fortunately, issues regarding regulations are often declared in the original contract, which states that regulations will not be reactive. However, financial crises can often deter a regulatory regime and lead to uncertainty. Stable contract and regulatory systems exist in countries where renewable energy development is surging, such as Chile, Mexico and Peru. Nevertheless, there are roadblocks for renewable energy development. In Brazil and other countries, strict local content rules are stifling the investment climate for foreign investors. For example, in Brazil’s wind industry, to be eligible for Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) financing, the projects must have a 60 percent local content requirement. Because of price differentials, this strict requirement can dissuade foreign developers from investing in the country. While local content rules can drive away financing projects, in some cases, such as Uruguay, the local content rules tend to be in line with what would normally be acquired locally.

Gómez 8/2/13 – director of energy at the Council of the Americas (Christian Gómez, Jr. “Financing Renewable Energy in Latin America” Americas Quarterly, August 2 2013, http://www.americasquarterly.org/node/5452) MR

While renewable energy investment globally fell by 11 percent renewable energy financing increased by 127 percent in Latin American countries this included gains of 595 percent in Mexico, 313 percent in Chile, 285 percent in Uruguay, and 176 percent in Peru renewable energy investments in Latin America reached $9.7 billion in 2012. he renewable energy sector in Latin America will continue to attract capital favorable government policies, receptiveness to foreign investment, and attractive regulatory regimes has drawn investors to renewable energy projects in the region. conditions for renewable energy in Latin America are favorable. Countries are also beginning to adopt renewable energy standards. Chile is leading the way with its 20/20 renewable plan countries in the region are serious about developing renewable energy Nevertheless, there are roadblocks for renewable energy development

Perception links are non-unique

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Michigan (7-week)

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2013

In short, the continuities between early twentieth-century biopolitical discourse and the practices of the welfare state in our own time are unmistakable. Both are instances of the “disciplinary society” and of biopolitical, regulatory, social-engineering modernity, and they share that genealogy with more authoritarian states, including the National Socialist state, but also fascist Italy, for example. And it is certainly fruitful to view them from this very broad perspective. But that analysis can easily become superficial and misleading, because it obfuscates the profoundly different strategic and local dynamics of power in the two kinds of regimes. Clearly the democratic welfare state is not only formally but also substantively quite different from totalitarianism. Above all, again, it has nowhere developed the fateful, radicalizing dynamic that characterized National Socialism (or for that matter Stalinism), the psychotic logic that leads from economistic population management to mass murder. Again, there is always the potential for such a discursive regime to generate coercive policies. In those cases in which the regime of rights does not successfully produce “health,” such a system can —and historically does— create compulsory programs to enforce it. But again, there are political and policy potentials and constraints in such a structuring of biopolitics that are very different from those of National Socialist Germany. Democratic biopolitical regimes require, enable, and incite a degree of self-direction and participation that is functionally incompatible with authoritarian or totalitarian structures. And this pursuit of biopolitical ends through a regime of democratic citizenship does appear, historically, to have imposed increasingly narrow limits on coercive policies, and to have generated a “logic” or imperative of increasing liberalization. Despite limitations imposed by political context and the slow pace of discursive change, I think this is the unmistakable message of the really very impressive waves of legislative and welfare reforms in the 1920s or the 1970s in Germany.90 Of course it is not yet clear whether this is an irreversible dynamic of such systems. Nevertheless, such regimes are characterized by sufficient degrees of autonomy (and of the potential for its expansion) for sufficient numbers of people that I think it becomes useful to conceive of them as productive of a strategic configuration of power relations that might fruitfully be analyzed as a condition of “liberty,” just as much as they are productive of constraint, oppression, or manipulation. At the very least, totalitarianism cannot be the sole orientation point for our understanding of biopolitics, the only end point of the logic of social engineering.

Dickinson 04 – Associate Professor, History Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley - 2004 (Edward Ross, “Biopolitics, Fascism, Democracy: Some Reflections on Our Discourse About “Modernity,” Central European History, vol. 37, no. 1, 1–48)

In short, the continuities between early twentieth-century biopolitical discourse and the practices of the welfare state in our own time are unmistakable But that analysis can easily become superficial and misleading, because it obfuscates the profoundly different strategic and local dynamics of power in the two kinds of regimes. Clearly the democratic welfare state is not only formally but also substantively quite different from totalitarianism. it has nowhere developed the fateful, radicalizing dynamic the psychotic logic that leads from economistic population management to mass murder. there are political and policy potentials and constraints in such a structuring of biopolitics that are very different from those of National Socialist Germany. Democratic biopolitical regimes require, enable, and incite a degree of self-direction and participation that is functionally incompatible with authoritarian or totalitarian structures. And this pursuit of biopolitical ends through a regime of democratic citizenship does appear, historically, to have imposed increasingly narrow limits on coercive policies, and to have generated a “logic” or imperative of increasing liberalization. such regimes are characterized by sufficient degrees of autonomy for sufficient numbers of people that I think it becomes useful to conceive of them as productive of a strategic configuration of power relations that might fruitfully be analyzed as a condition of “liberty,” totalitarianism cannot be the sole orientation point for our understanding of biopolitics, the only end point of the logic of social engineering.

Even if they are right that our policy is biopolitical, the fact that it is carried out by a democratic state makes it profoundly different.

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2013

This notion is not at all at odds with the core of Foucauldian (and Peukertian) theory. Democratic welfare states are regimes of power/knowledge no less than early twentieth-century totalitarian states; these systems are not “opposites,” in the sense that they are two alternative ways of organizing the same thing. But they are two very different ways of organizing it. The concept “power” should not be read as a universal stifling night of oppression, manipulation, and entrapment, in which all political and social orders are grey, are essentially or effectively “the same.” Power is a set of social relations, in which individuals and groups have varying degrees of autonomy and effective subjectivity. And discourse is, as Foucault argued, “tactically polyvalent.” Discursive elements (like the various elements of biopolitics) can be combined in different ways to form parts of quite different strategies (like totalitarianism or the democratic welfare state); they cannot be assigned to one place in a structure, but rather circulate. The varying possible constellations of power in modern societies create “multiple modernities,” modern societies with quite radically differing potentials.91

Dickinson 04 – Associate Professor, History Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley - 2004 (Edward Ross, “Biopolitics, Fascism, Democracy: Some Reflections on Our Discourse About “Modernity,” Central European History, vol. 37, no. 1, 1–48)

The concept “power” should not be read as a universal stifling night of oppression, manipulation, and entrapment, in which all political and social orders are grey, are essentially or effectively “the same.” Power is a set of social relations, in which individuals and groups have varying degrees of autonomy and effective subjectivity. Discursive elements (like the various elements of biopolitics) can be combined in different ways to form parts of quite different strategies (like totalitarianism or the democratic welfare state); they cannot be assigned to one place in a structure, but rather circulate. The varying possible constellations of power in modern societies create “multiple modernities,” modern societies with quite radically differing potentials.91

Biopower is a description of our era—it is neither inherently good, nor bad. Our specific context is more important than their sweeping generalization.

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2013

At its simplest, this view of the politics of expertise and professionalization is certainly plausible. Historically speaking, however, the further conjecture that this “micropolitical” dynamic creates authoritarian, totalitarian, or homicidal potentials at the level of the state does not seem very tenable. Historically, it appears that the greatest advocates of political democracy —in Germany left liberals and Social Democrats —have been also the greatest advocates of every kind of biopolitical social engineering, from public health and welfare programs through social insurance to city planning and, yes, even eugenics.102 The state they built has intervened in social relations to an (until recently) ever-growing degree; professionalization has run ever more rampant in Western societies; the production of scientistic and technocratic expert knowledge has proceeded at an ever more frenetic pace. And yet, from the perspective of the first years of the millennium, the second half of the twentieth century appears to be the great age of democracy in precisely those societies where these processes have been most in evidence. What is more, the interventionist state has steadily expanded both the rights and the resources of virtually every citizen — including those who were stigmatized and persecuted as biologically defective under National Socialism. Perhaps these processes have created an ever more restrictive “iron cage” of rationality in European societies. But if so, it seems clear that there is no necessary correlation between rationalization and authoritarian politics; the opposite seems in fact to be at least equally true.

Dickinson 04 – Associate Professor, History Ph.D., U.C. Berkeley - 2004 (Edward Ross, “Biopolitics, Fascism, Democracy: Some Reflections on Our Discourse About “Modernity,” Central European History, vol. 37, no. 1, 1–48)

the further conjecture that this “micropolitical” dynamic creates authoritarian, totalitarian, or homicidal potentials at the level of the state does not seem very tenable. Historically, it appears that the greatest advocates of political democracy have been also the greatest advocates of every kind of biopolitical social engineering, from public health and welfare programs through social insurance to city planning and, yes, even eugenics. The state they built has intervened in social relations the second half of the twentieth century appears to be the great age of democracy in precisely those societies where these processes have been most in evidence. What is more, the interventionist state has steadily expanded both the rights and the resources of virtually every citizen it seems clear that there is no necessary correlation between rationalization and authoritarian politics; the opposite seems in fact to be at least equally true.

Biopower is not genocidal when it is deployed by a government which also respects rights.

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Michigan (7-week)

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2013

A report published by Citibank, a major international bank, has found that the future of shale gas in Europe is shrouded in uncertainties and the energy technology may not be as viable as had been previously claimed. The same report found that renewables will cost the same as conventional fuels (including gas) in many parts of the world in the very near term. “The cost of renewables is falling fast,” it said. The Citibank report, first published in September 2012, says that in Europe shale is likely to be particularly challenging to extract, leading to a higher than predicted level of uncertainty surrounding the industry’s future. “Even if shale gas resources are as large as initially reported, it is unknown to what extent shale gas will be recoverable in practice,” it said.

Casey 4/18/13 – (Zoë Casey “Future of shale gas challenging, cost of renewables falling” EWEA, April 18 2013, http://www.ewea.org/blog/2013/04/future-of-shale-gas-challenging-cost-of-renewables-falling/) MR

the future of shale gas is shrouded in uncertainties and the energy may not be as viable as previously claimed. renewables will cost the same as conventional fuels including gas in many parts of the world in the very near term. The cost of renewables is falling fast it is unknown to what extent shale gas will be recoverable in practice

Renewables will price out shale

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Michigan (7-week)

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2013

The emergence of the shale gas boom in the United States, and the discovery of significant reserves in Australia and elsewhere, has prompted many people in the energy industry to proclaim a “golden age” of gas, one that will cause the premature demise of renewable energy sources, even before they have a chance of creating an energy revolution of their own. The claims have, of course, been heavily promoted by the gas industry itself, as well as from institutions such as the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Administration, who have both suggested the boom in shale gas will defer investment away from wind and solar. But in a recent report, the energy analysts at international investment bank Citigroup question these assumptions, which are based on the idea that gas and renewables will compete with each other. “We suggest the opposite is true,” Citi writes. Rather than replacing renewables, the Citi analysts suggest that the shale gas industry will actually be dependent on the broader deployment of wind and solar for its future. That’s because gas will be priced out of the conventional market in the short term, but will then be required to fill in the gaps as wind and solar are deployed more widely, and coal generation is shut down. Far from competing with each other, Citi suggests renewables and shale gas will be co-dependent as the world’s energy systems are weaned away from the baseload model that has dominated the industry for the last century. That is until forms of dispatchable renewable energy, such as solar thermal with storage, and technologies such as smart grids, push gas out of the market. The key to Citi’s prediction is the conclusion that the cost of exploiting shale gas is highly uncertain, as are its long-term environmental credentials. Shale gas is likely to be considerably more expensive than it has been in the US, and by the time it is exploited it will be unable to compete with the cost of renewables in most markets. “The perception of renewables as an expensive source of electricity is largely obsolete, given the huge cost reductions achieved in recent years,” the Citi analysts write. The report notes residential solar PV has already reached ‘grid parity’ in many countries, with much of the world set to follow by 2020. It also says that utility-scale renewables will also be competitive with gas-fired power in the “short to medium” term. This has already occurred with wind energy in many countries. The exact ‘crossover’ points for utility-scale solar will vary from country to country, but in many regions, the Citi analysts say that big solar will be competitive by 2020.

Parkinson 3/30/13 – founding editor of RenewEconomy.com.au, an Australian-based website that provides news and analysis on cleantech, carbon and climate issues (Giles Parkinson, “Shale Gas Won’t Kill Solar & Wind, Renewable Growth Unstoppable (Citigroup Study)” Clean Technia, March 30 2013, http://cleantechnica.com/2013/03/30/shale-gas-wont-kill-solar-wind-renewable-growth-unstoppable-citigroup-study/) MR

The emergence of the shale gas boom in the U S prompted many to proclaim a “golden age” of gas that will cause the premature demise of renewable energy sources, even before they have a chance of creating an energy revolution claims have been heavily promoted by the gas industry itself energy analysts question these assumptions, which are based on the idea that gas and renewables will compete the opposite is true Rather than replacing renewables the shale gas industry will be dependent on the broader deployment of wind and solar That’s because gas will be priced out of the market in the short term, but will then be required to fill in the gaps as wind and solar are deployed more widely renewables and shale gas will be co-dependent until renewable energy push gas out of the market. that the cost of exploiting shale gas is highly uncertain Shale is likely to be considerably more expensive than it has been in the US by the time it is exploited it will be unable to compete with the cost of renewables in most markets. perception of renewables as an expensive source of electricity is obsolete renewables will be competitive with gas in the “short term

Renewables can price shale out of the market – cost competitive

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The United States continues to slumber while a catastrophe lies in wait. Increasing numbers of analysts and policymakers are warning of another super price spike for oil and the likelihood of "peak oil" more generally. Peak oil is the point at which global oil production reaches a maximum and then declines. The speed of the decline is a key unknown and if it is relatively fast, the results could be truly dire for economies around the world. We saw prices as high as $147 a barrel in mid-2008 (the dominant factor for gasoline prices well over $4 a gallon), which played a strong role, perhaps the dominant role, in the global Great Recession -- as high oil prices have in most recessions over the last fifty years. Once the recession hit, oil demand dropped and prices plummeted as low as $33 a barrel. Prices steadily recovered since their low in early 2009 and are back to dangerous levels in early 2011 (about $90 a barrel). We can expect far higher prices as the global recovery continues. An increasing number of analysts are projecting prices as high or higher than the 2008 peak in the next couple of years. More importantly, global net exports of oil continue to drop as major oil exporters increase their own consumption at the same time as their production is stagnant or falling. As a major oil-importing nation (about 2/3 of our oil is imported, by far the largest import dependency in the world), net oil exports are far more important to the U.S. than total oil production. Even if global oil production increases in the coming years, if there is less available for oil-thirsty nations like ours the situation will be far worse than total oil production figures would otherwise suggest. More on this below. It is time for public discussion of this issue to reach the same prominence as climate change. Indeed, many solutions to these “twin crises” are the same because reducing petroleum dependence will ameliorate peak oil and climate change. This article is an update on the peak oil situation at the beginning of 2011 and a follow-up to my many previous pieces on peak oil (one with Nobel Prize winner Walter Kohn). First, some facts. Global oil production has plateaued since 2004, despite the fact that oil prices have risen dramatically. Figure 1 shows this history, demonstrating that oil production has not been very response to market forces, suggesting strongly that we are at a global peak. Bloomberg reported a summary of oil price forecasts for 2011, selecting for their summary those forecasters who have the most accurate track records. The dominant view was that average oil prices will rise almost as high in 2011 as seen in 2008 – to $87 a barrel for the year as a whole (the average price for 2008 was $99). It’s likely, however, that the actual average 2011 price will be significantly higher because we are already over this price at about $90 a barrel in early January and the large majority of economic forecasts project a robust global recovery this year, with attendant increases in oil demand. More anecdotally, but with perhaps more impact because of its source, Shell’s recent ex-president John Hofmeister predicts $5 gas by 2012 due to the global economic recovery and very tight supply. A number of comprehensive reviews of the global oil supply situation have appeared in the last year. Lloyds and Chatham House: “We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike.” “A supply crunch appears likely around 2013… given recent price experience, a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible.” The U.S. Department of Defense issued a stark warning in its 2010 Joint Operating Environment (JOE) report, including discussion of “peak oil”: "By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.” Similarly, the German military is taking peak oil very seriously, made clear by a report leaked to Der Spiegel in 2010: “[The report] warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the ‘total collapse of the markets’ and of serious political and economic crises.” The same article reports on secret British government planning for peak oil: “The leak has parallels with recent reports from the UK. Only last week the Guardian newspaper reported that the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is keeping documents secret which show the UK government is far more concerned about an impending supply crisis than it cares to admit. According to the Guardian, the DECC, the Bank of England and the British Ministry of Defence are working alongside industry representatives to develop a crisis plan to deal with possible shortfalls in energy supply.” The UK’s Industry Task Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (a non-governmental group) issued its second major report on peak oil in late 2010, concluding: “[W]e face a situation during the [next few years] where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK’s energy security will be significantly compromised. This has the potential to hit UK business and commerce as well as the most disadvantaged in society with yet another crisis.” In August of 2009, the International Energy Agency (IEA), the official energy watchdog for the western world, was even more strident in its warnings. The UK’s Independent newspaper reported: The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned. Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries. Later in 2009, two IEA whistleblowers went public and claimed that the situation was even worse than the IEA was stating publicly. The UK’s Guardian newspaper reported in November of 2009: “A … senior IEA source, who has now left but was … unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organization was that it was ‘imperative not to anger the Americans’ but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as has been admitted. ‘We have (already) entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,’ he added.”

Hunt 11 – renewable energy consultant and lawyer, president of Community Renewable Solutions, Lecturer in climate change law and policy at UC Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science & Management (Tam Hunt, “The Peak Oil Catastrophe-in-waiting” Renewable Energy World, January 24 2011, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/01/the-peak-oil-catastrophe-in-waiting) MR

The U S continues to slumber while a catastrophe lies in wait. Increasing numbers of analysts and policymakers are warning of another super price spike for oil and peak oil Peak oil is the point at which global oil production reaches a maximum and declines. The speed of the decline is a key unknown climate change solutions are the same because reducing petroleum dependence will ameliorate peak oil and climate change. Global oil production has plateaued since 2004, despite the fact that prices have risen dramatically oil production has not been response to market forces, suggesting strongly that we are at a global peak. A number of comprehensive reviews of the global oil supply situation have appeared We are heading towards a global oil supply crunch and price spike a spike in excess of $200 per barrel is not infeasible surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple global economic recovery Higher oil prices could blow any recovery off course We have entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. the situation is really bad

Peak oil has been reached – spikes make their impacts inevitable

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2013

It is time to get very serious about managing a reduction in petroleum demand in the U.S. and around the world. I write “managing” because it is my view that this reduction in demand will happen whether we want it to or not due to declining oil supplies. The question, then, is how we best manage this decline. A high quality analysis of the possible scenarios for an oil-constrained world, by Oxford University professor Jörg Friedrichs, appeared in 2010. Friedrichs examines three possible trajectories: “Predatory militarism,” “totalitarian retrenchment,” and “socioeconomic adaptation.” At least two rigorous policy solutions have been offered in recent years. The Rocky Mountain Institute completed Winning the Oil Endgame in 2007, suggesting a suite of policy and technology solutions that can get the U.S. off oil, “led by business for profit.” Richard Heinberg offered his own book-length solution, The Oil Depletion Protocol, in 2008, suggesting how the U.S. and other nations could manage declining oil supplies by achieving a three percent per year reduction in demand through various policies. As we continue a global economic recovery in 2011, higher oil prices are inevitable, super price spikes are a strong possibility, and even shortages are not out of the question. We must ask ourselves: should we manage the decline in a way that avoids economic catastrophe or do we continue our generally laissez faire attitude toward this major problem?

Hunt 11 – renewable energy consultant and lawyer, president of Community Renewable Solutions, Lecturer in climate change law and policy at UC Santa Barbara’s Bren School of Environmental Science & Management (Tam Hunt, “The Peak Oil Catastrophe-in-waiting” Renewable Energy World, January 24 2011, http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/01/the-peak-oil-catastrophe-in-waiting) MR

It is time to get very serious about a reduction in petroleum demand in the U.S. and around the world The question is how we best manage this decline analysis of the possible scenarios examines three possible trajectories Predatory militarism totalitarian retrenchment and socioeconomic adaptation technology solutions can get the U.S. off oil higher oil prices are inevitable, super price spikes are a strong possibility, and shortages are not out of the question should we manage the decline in a way that avoids economic catastrophe or continue our laissez faire attitude

Plan key to reduce oil dependence – averts the impacts of inevitable price spikes

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Michigan (7-week)

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2013

The idea of 'peak oil' — that global production will reach a peak and then decline — has been around for decades, with academics arguing about whether this peak has already passed or is yet to come. The typical industry response is to point to increasing assessments of global reserves — the amount known to be in the ground that can be produced commercially. But this is misleading. The true volume of proven global reserves is clouded by secrecy; forecasts by state oil companies are not audited and seem to be exaggerated3. More importantly, reserves often take 6–10 years to drill and develop before they become part of supply, by which time older fields have become depleted. It is far more sensible to look instead at actual production records, which are less encouraging. Even while reserves are apparently increasing, the percentage available for production is going down. In the United States, for example, production as a percentage of reserves has steadily decreased from 9% in 1980 to 6% today2. Production at existing oil fields around the world is declining at rates of about 4.5% (ref. 4) to 6.7% per year5. Only by adding in production from new wells is overall global production holding steady. In 2005, global production of regular crude oil reached about 72 million barrels per day. From then on, production capacity seems to have hit a ceiling at 75 million barrels per day. A plot of prices against production from 1998 to today2 shows this dramatic transition, from a time when supply could respond elastically to rising prices caused by increased demand, to when it could not (see 'Phase shift'). As a result, prices swing wildly in response to small changes in demand. Other people have remarked on this step change in the economics of oil around the year 2005, but the point needs to be lodged more firmly in the minds of policy-makers.

Murray* and King** 12 – *School of Oceanography, University of Washington, founding director of the University of Washington's Program on Climate Change, **director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government (James Murray and David King, “Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed” Nature 481, 433–435, January 26 2012) MR

The idea of 'peak oil' has been around for decades The true volume of proven global reserves is clouded by secrecy forecasts by state oil companies are not audited and seem to be exaggerated reserves take 10 years to drill and develop by which time older fields have become depleted. It is far more sensible to look at actual production records, which are less encouraging. the percentage available for production is going down production as a percentage of reserves has steadily decreased As a result, prices swing wildly in response to small changes in demand

Peak oil theory is proven true – triggers frequent spikes

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2013

The world currently produces around 91 million barrels a day (mb/d) of ‘oil’ in the International Energy Agency’s definition, which is for all liquids. For the past two years, actual crude oil production (which includes lease condensate in the EIA’s definition) has been hovering around 75 mb/d on an annual basis, just slightly over the 74 mb/d plateau established in 2005. The moment of truth for peak oil will be when the decline of mature fields finally overwhelms new production additions, and global supply begins to turn south. (A vogue alternative is that we’ll reach “peak demand” first, where oil is replaced by other fuels and demand falls due to greater efficiency, but as yet I find the proof that this has happened, or will happen, unconvincing.) That moment of truth isn’t quite here yet. Fracking, along with all the other methods the world is employing to squeeze a bit more oil out of the earth, has barely budged global oil production. Here is the chart: What do you see there? An ignominious end to an unimaginative story perpetrated by self-interested mavericks looking to raise their profiles and sell some books, or a plateau of production that just barely broke higher in the past two years after an absolutely heroic effort that required hundreds of billions of dollars of investment and a quadrupling of oil prices? Now let’s look at non-OPEC production, without U.S. production: See how production has been falling off in recent years? That’s happening because the aggregate decline rate of all fields is around 5 percent per year. In other words, the world loses around 3.0 to 3.8 mb/d of production each year (depending on whose numbers you use). Most of the 2 mb/d “tidal wave of oil” from U.S. fracking was absorbed by the decline in the rest of non-OPEC, as we can see from the aggregate non-OPEC production in this chart: The question isn’t “Can fracking save the world from peak oil?” but “How long can America make up for declines in the rest of the world?” The answer is probably not much longer. The growth rate of tight oil production has cooled considerably over the past year, and per-well production is falling.

Nelder 7/24/13 – energy analyst, consultant and media guest who has written about energy and investing for more than a decade (Chris Nelder, “Peak oil isn’t dead; it just smells that way” SmartPlanet.com, July 24 2013, http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/take/peak-oil-isnt-dead-it-just-smells-that-way/963) MR

The world currently produces 91 million barrels a day The moment of truth for peak oil will be when the decline of mature fields finally overwhelms new production additions Fracking, along with all the other methods the world is employing has barely budged global oil production production has been falling off in recent years because the aggregate decline rate of all fields is around 5 percent per year. The question is How long can America make up for declines in the rest of the world?” The answer is not much longer. The growth rate of oil production has cooled considerably and per-well production is falling.

Peak oil is here – production is cooling fast

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Now let’s talk about price. Since 2003, who forecast the global repricing of oil best, the peakists who expected prices to spike into record territory, or the Cornucopians who consistently predicted that oil prices would return to historical levels? The answer is indisputable: the peakists. For the past decade, the Cornucopians have told us that a new abundance was coming from deepwater oil, tar sands, enhanced oil recovery, biofuels, and other unconventional sources. Global oil production would rise to 120 million barrels per day, and prices would fall back to $20 or $30 per barrel. Those stories were all completely wrong. The peakists called it. Here’s what happened: Oil repriced in response to scarcity. Triple-digit prices were responsible for the new flush of unconventional production. That production, including fracking for tight oil in the United States, raises prices, it doesn’t lower them. We’ve hit and fallen back from the consumer’s price tolerance repeatedly for the past six years. For a last bit of data, look at this forecast from the final post that petroleum engineer Jean Lahèrrere did for The Oil Drum: Laherrère concludes: “With the poor data available today, it seems that world oil (all liquids) production will peak before 2020, Non-OPEC quite soon and OPEC around 2020. OPEC will cease to export crude oil before 2050.” Looking closely at Laherrère’s data, it seems essentially in line with my view that in another 18 months or so we’re going to get the signal that oil needs to reprice higher still to maintain production. That will be very difficult for U.S. and European consumers to stomach. Whether that repricing will bring more oil to market, or simply kill demand, remains to be seen.

Nelder 7/24/13 – energy analyst, consultant and media guest who has written about energy and investing for more than a decade (Chris Nelder, “Peak oil isn’t dead; it just smells that way” SmartPlanet.com, July 24 2013, http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/take/peak-oil-isnt-dead-it-just-smells-that-way/963) MR

who forecast the global repricing of oil best, the peakists who expected prices to spike into record territory, or the Cornucopians who consistently predicted that oil prices would return to historical levels? The answer is indisputable: the peakists. Cornucopians told us that a new abundance was coming from deepwater oil, tar sands, enhanced oil recovery, biofuels, and other unconventional sources. Those stories were all completely wrong. The peakists called it. Oil repriced in response to scarcity. Triple-digit prices were responsible for the new flush of unconventional production. That production raises prices, it doesn’t lower them. world oil production will peak OPEC will cease to export crude oil we’re going to get the signal that oil needs to reprice higher still to maintain production

Peak oil is proven

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

There are a number of physical depletion mechanisms that affect oil production (Satter et al.,2008). Depletion-driven decline occurs during the primary recovery phase when decreasing reservoir pressure leads to reduced flow rates. Investment in water injection, the secondary recovery phase, can maintain or increase pressure but eventually increasingly more water and less oil is recovered over time (i.e. increasing water cut). Additional equipment and technology can be used to enhance oil recovery in the tertiary recovery phase but it comes at a higher price in terms of both invested capital and energy to maintain production. The situation is similar to squeezing water out of a soaked sponge. It is easy at first but increasingly more effort is required for diminishing returns. At some point, it is no longer worth squeezing either the sponge or the oil basin and the production is abandoned. Another way to explain peaking oil production is in the terms of predator–prey behavior, as Bardi and Lavacchi (2009) have done. Their idea is that, initially, the extraction of ‘‘easy oil’’ leads to increasing profit and investments in further extraction capacity. Gradually the easiest (and typically the largest) resources are depleted. Extraction costs in both energy and monetary terms rise as production moves to lower quality deposits. Eventually, investments cannot keep pace with these rising costs, declining production from mature fields cannot be overcome and total production begins to fall. An additional factor plays an important role. In both the models, regardless of the abundance of capital or high prices, at some point an oil well is unable to deliver net energy. Hubbert (1982) wrote: ‘‘There is a different and more fundamental cost that is independent of the monetary price. That is the energy cost of exploration and production. So long as oil is used as a source of energy, when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease no matter what the monetary price may be.’’

Fantazzini et al. 11 (Dean Fantazzini, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics at the International College of Economics and Finance, Higher School of Economics, Mikael Hook, Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, and Andre Angelantoni, Post Peak Living, San Francisco, “Global oil risks in the early 21st century” Energy Policy 39 7865–7873, February 14 2011, Elsevier) MR

a number of physical depletion mechanisms affect oil production Depletion-driven decline occurs when decreasing reservoir pressure leads to reduced flow rates eventually more water and less oil is recovered equipment and technology can be used but it comes at a higher price in terms of invested capital and energy The situation is similar to squeezing water out of a soaked sponge. increasingly more effort is required for diminishing returns. At some point, it is no longer worth squeezing the oil basin and production is abandoned. investments cannot keep pace with rising costs, declining production from mature fields cannot be overcome and total production begins to fall. at some point an oil well is unable to deliver net energy. So long as oil is used when the energy cost of recovering a barrel of oil becomes greater than the energy content of the oil, production will cease

Peak oil theory is true

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Production peaks occur for many energy sources ranging from firewood and whales to fossil fuels (Hook et al., 2010). Currently, around 60 countries have passed ‘‘peak oil’’ (Sorrell et al., 2009)—their point of maximum production. In most cases this is due to the physical depletion of the available resources (e.g. USA, the UK, Norway, etc.) while in a few cases socioeconomic factors limit the production (e.g. Iraq). Attempts to disprove peak oil that focus solely on the amount of oil available in all its forms demonstrate a fundamental, and unfortunately common, confusion between how much oil remains versus how quickly it can be produced. Although until recently oil appears to be more economically available than ever before (Watkins, 2006), others have shown this to be an artifact of statistical reporting (Bentley etal.,2007). Further, it is far less important how much oil is left if demand is, for instance, 90Mb/d but only80Mb/d can be produced. Still, the most realistic reserve estimates indicate a near-term resource-limited production peak (Meng andBentley,2008; Owen etal.,2010). Total oil production is comprised of conventional oil, which is liquid crude that is easy and relatively cheap to pump, and unconventional oil, which is expensive and often difficult to produce. It is vital to understand that new oil is increasingly coming from unconventional sources like polar, deep water and tar sands. Almost all the oil left to us is in politically dangerous or remote regions, is trapped in challenging geology or is not even in the liquid form. Today, over 60% of the world production originates from a few hundred giant fields. The number of giant oil field discoveries peaked in the early 60s and has been dwindling since then (Hook et al.,2009). This is similar to picking strawberries in a field. We picked the biggest and the best strawberries first (they are easier to find, just like big oil fields) and left the small ones for later. Only 25 fields account for one quarter of global production and 100 fields account for half of production. Just 500 fields account for two-thirds of all the production (Sorrell etal.,2009a). As the International Energy Agency (2008) points out, it is far from certain that the oil industry will be able to muster the capital to tap enough of the remaining, low-return fields fast enough to make up for the decline in production from the current fields. All oil sources are not equally easy to exploit. It takes far less energy to pump oil from a reservoir still under natural pressure than to recover the bitumen from tar sands and convert it to synthetic crude. The energy obtained from an extraction process divided by the energy expended during the process is the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). It is a return on investment calculation applied to a physical process. As Hubbert noted, regardless of the price the market is willing to pay for oil, just as we would not spend a dollar to receive only a dollar in return, when we expend as much oil as we get back from a particular oil deposit, production will stop. The EROEI of US domestic oil production (chiefly originating from giant oil fields) has declined from 100:1 in 1930 to less than 20:1 for developments in the 2000s (e.g. Gulf of Mexico) (Gately, 2007; Hall et al., 2008; Murphy and Hall,2010). Since giant and Super giant oil fields dominate current production, they are good indicators for the point of peak production (Robelius, 2007; H¨o¨ok et al.,2009). There is now broad agreement among analysts that the decline in the existing production is between 4–8% annually (H¨o¨ok et al., 2009). In terms of capacity, this means that roughly a new North Sea (5 Mb/d) has to come onstream every year just to keep the present output constant. In 2010, the International Energy Agency (2010) abruptly announced that the peak of conventional oil production was reached in 2006. The IEA also again lowered their estimate of total world oil production to less than 100 Mb/dby 2035. However, it has been shown that the IEA oil production model is flawed. To reach the production level in their model, they assume oil field depletion rates that are so high that they have never been seen in any oil region before (Aleklettetal.,2010). The remaining oil simply cannot be produced as quickly as would be required to push the production peak as far into the future as they project, thus the peak must occur sooner than the IEA asserts. Miller (2011) found that the IEA had not addressed any of the recent critique and concluded that the IEA outlooks likely remain too optimistic.

Fantazzini et al. 11 (Dean Fantazzini, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics at the International College of Economics and Finance, Higher School of Economics, Mikael Hook, Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, and Andre Angelantoni, Post Peak Living, San Francisco, “Global oil risks in the early 21st century” Energy Policy 39 7865–7873, February 14 2011, Elsevier) MR

around 60 countries have passed ‘‘peak oil’’ this is due to the physical depletion of the available resources Attempts to disprove peak oil that focus solely on the amount of oil available demonstrate a fundamental confusion between how much oil remains versus how quickly it can be produced. Although oil appears to be more economically available others have shown this to be an artifact of statistical reporting the most realistic estimates indicate a near-term peak new oil is increasingly coming from unconventional sources Almost all the oil left to us is in politically dangerous or remote regions, is trapped in challenging geology or is not even in the liquid form. The number of giant oil field discoveries peaked in the early 60s and has been dwindling since then This is similar to picking strawberries in a field. We picked the biggest and the best strawberries first and left the small ones for later. it is far from certain that the oil industry will be able to muster the capital to tap enough of the remaining, low-return fields fast enough to make up for the decline in production All oil sources are not equally easy to exploit regardless of the price the market is willing to pay for oil when we expend as much oil as we get back from a particular oil deposit, production will stop. There is broad agreement among analysts that the decline in production is between 4–8% the IEA oil production model is flawed they assume oil field depletion rates that are so high that they have never been seen in any oil region before the IEA outlooks remain too optimistic.

Prefer the data behind peak oil theory

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

However, oil production recently became less responsive to the traditional economic stimuli. The first decade of this century witnessed a dramatic increase in oil exploration and production when the price of oil increased (Sorrell et al., 2009, 2009a). Unfortunately, as noted already, total world oil production seems to have reached a plateau nonetheless. To a large degree this is because the oil that remains tends to be unconventional oil, which is expensive and takes more time to bring into the market. Some consequences of having extracted much of the easy oil are the following: a) Once a field is discovered it takes significantly more time to start production. Maugeri (2010) estimates that it now takes between 8 and 12 years for new projects to produce the first oil. Difficult development conditions can delay the start of production considerably. In the case of Kashagan, the world’s largest oil discovery in 30 years, production has been delayed by almost 10 years due to the difficult environmental conditions. b) In mature regions, an increased drilling effort usually results in little increase in oil production because the largest fields were found and produced first (H¨o¨ok and Aleklett, 2008; H¨o¨ok et al., 2009). c) Because the cost of extracting the remaining oil is much higher than the easy-to-extract OPEC or other conventional oil, if the market price remains lower than the marginal cost for long enough producers will cut production to avoid financial losses. See Fig. 3. d) Uncertainty about the future economic growth heightens concerns for executing these riskier projects. This delays or often cancels the projects. e) Most remaining oil reserves are in the hands of governments. They tend to under-invest compared to private companies (Deutsche Bank, 2009).

Fantazzini et al. 11 (Dean Fantazzini, Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University, Faculty of Economics at the International College of Economics and Finance, Higher School of Economics, Mikael Hook, Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems, Department of Physics and Astronomy, and Andre Angelantoni, Post Peak Living, San Francisco, “Global oil risks in the early 21st century” Energy Policy 39 7865–7873, February 14 2011, Elsevier) MR

oil production became less responsive to traditional economic stimuli total world oil production seems to have reached a plateau this is because the oil that remains tends to be unconventional which is expensive and takes more time to bring into the market. consequences of having extracted easy oil are the following Once a field is discovered it takes significantly more time to start production it now takes between 8 and 12 years Difficult development conditions delay production considerably. increased drilling effort results in little increase in oil production Because the cost of extracting the remaining oil is much higher the market price remains lower than the marginal cost producers cut production Uncertainty about future economic growth heightens concerns for executing riskier projects governments under-invest compared to private companies

Substantial barriers to increased oil production

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Because oil is a global commodity, our increased production won't have much impact on global prices. At the same time, the global nature of oil means that we are inextricably tied to and ultimately dependent on other countries, many of them very unstable. In 2011, Libya's internal civil war halted production of light sweet crude, driving U.S. gas prices up 33 cents per gallon in two weeks—even though in that same year, the Bakken Shale was producing nearly half a million barrels per day. Our oil markets are also subject to weather events: In 2005, Hurricane Katrina disrupted U.S. supply and caused the first gas station lines since the 1970s. These events are only increasing as our planet warms. So the real answer on geopolitics, as my former Center for American Progress colleague Brian Katulis and I wrote back in 2011, is that really the only smart play for the U.S. is to actually reduce our oil use (and exposure to oil price volatility) while making the technology investments we need to transition to a 21st-century, low-carbon energy economy. Saudi Arabia already gets this, and is massively investing in solar panels to decrease its own economic dependence on oil. They want to increase renewable energy production by 54 gigawatts by 2032, making them one of the largest clean-energy generators in the world. If we don't want to be dependent on the Saudis for our wind and solar technology as well as for oil, we better get cracking.

Gordon 13 – vice president and director of the energy and climate program at Next Generation (Kate Gordon, “Kate Gordon: More U.S. Oil Means Less Than You Might Think” Wall Street Journal, March 27 2013, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324105204578382690249436084.html) MR

oil is a global commodity our increased production won't have much impact on global prices. the global nature of oil means we are inextricably tied to other countries In 2011, Libya's internal civil war halted production of light sweet crude, driving gas prices up 33 cents per gallon in two weeks oil markets are subject to weather events Hurricane Katrina disrupted U.S. supply These events are only increasing as our planet warms. really the only smart play for the U.S. is to actually reduce our oil use while making the technology investments we need to transition to a low-carbon energy economy. Saudi Arabia gets this, and is massively investing in solar panels They want to increase renewable energy production we better get cracking

Warming makes oil shocks inevitable – renewables are key and don’t trigger Saudi retaliation

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Michigan (7-week)

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2013

There is less fossil-fuel production available to us than many people believe. From 2005 onwards, conventional crude-oil production has not risen to match increasing demand. We argue that the oil market has tipped into a new state, similar to a phase transition in physics: production is now 'inelastic', unable to respond to rising demand, and this is leading to wild price swings. Other fossil-fuel resources don't seem capable of making up the difference. Production at oil fields globally, including at the Kern River oil field in Bakersfield, California, is declining at about 4–6% a year. Such major spikes in fuel price can cause economic crises, and contributed to the one the world is recovering from now. The future economy is unlikely to be able to bear what oil prices have in store. Only by moving away from fossil fuels can we both ensure a more robust economic outlook and address the challenges of climate change. This will be a decades-long transformation1 that needs to start immediately.

Murray* and King** 12 – *School of Oceanography, University of Washington, founding director of the University of Washington's Program on Climate Change, **director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government (James Murray and David King, “Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed” Nature 481, 433–435, January 26 2012) MR

There is less fossil-fuel production available than many people believe. From 2005 onwards, oil production has not risen to match demand the oil market has tipped production is now 'inelastic', unable to respond to rising demand this is leading to wild price swings. Production at oil fields globally is declining major spikes in fuel price cause economic crises The future economy is unlikely to be able to bear what oil prices have in store. Only by moving away from fossil fuels can we ensure a more robust economic outlook and address climate change. This needs to start immediately

Peak oil is already here – only a renewable transition solves price spikes and economic collapse

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

This analysis shows possible medium-term economic effects of a significant drop in world oil production over the next decade. Assuming that global demand for oil and petroleum products remains increasing, the price of oil will increase sharply due to the price inelastic nature of the oil market in the short to medium run. Large fluctuations in the oil price occur for only small changes in supply and demand. This is also supported by findings in the literature, and shows that strong price fluctuations as experienced in the past years are easily possible. The oil shortage firstly and strongly affects the transport sector but then has indirect impacts on all other sectors through global supply chains. The medium run reactions to the oil shortage and corresponding substantial increase in the oil price of the global energy system and the individual sectors are energy saving and substitution, lowering global energy demand. The global macroeconomic effects of an increase of the oil price as high as modelled here are comparable to the effects of the financial and economic crises of 2008/2009. Country specific effects are very different as the oil exporting countries gain importance in the global economy while the influence of the strong oil-importing economies of today decreases. Comparing scenarios “Peak Oil” and “Peak Oil Eff/RE” shows that global climate mitigation actions can well reduce the negative economic impacts of oil supply shortages and associated with strong increases in the oil price. The reasons for the oil shortage, which in this paper is assumed to be peak oil, could as well be political disruptions, military conflicts, or terror attacks in the oil producing countries. For the analysis of the macroeconomic effects though the actual source of the oil shortage and corresponding oil price increase does not matter. This analysis shows that not only the reduction in emissions, but also fossil fuel shortage, especially oil shortage, and energy security are good reasons for global climate action programmes regarding increase in energy efficiency and further development of renewable energy sources.

Lutza et al. 12 (Christian Lutza, Institute of Economic Structures Research, Ulrike Lehra, Institute of Economic Structures Research, and Kirsten S. Wiebea, UNU-MERIT, “Economic effects of peak oil” Energy Policy, Volume 48, September 2012, Pages 829–834, Science Direct) MR

Assuming that global demand for oil remains the price of oil will increase sharply in the short run. Large fluctuations in the oil price occur for small changes in supply and demand. strong price fluctuations are easily possible. The oil shortage has indirect impacts on all sectors global macroeconomic effects are comparable to the economic crises of 2008 global climate mitigation actions well reduce the negative economic impacts of oil supply shortages oil shortage and energy security are good reasons for global climate action regarding increase in energy efficiency and development of renewable energy

Renewables key to solve inevitable shortages

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Climate change and changes in fossil-fuel production are generally seen as separate phenomena. But they are closely linked. The risk of fossil-fuel supply limitation should be included when considering the uncertainties of future climate change. The approaches needed for tackling the economic impacts of resource scarcity and climate change are the same: moving away from a dependence on fossil-fuel energy sources. Whereas the implications of climate change have driven only slow policy responses, economic consequences tend to drive shorter-term action. We know from the historical record that when there are oil-price spikes, the economy begins to respond within a year. Governments that fail to plan for the decline in fossil-fuel production will be faced with potentially major blows to their economies even before rising sea levels flood their coasts or crops begin to fail catastrophically. The solutions are not secret or mysterious. Globally we get 55 × 1018 joules of useful energy from 475 × 1018 joules of primary energy from fossil fuels, biomass and nuclear power plants. The difference is due to energy losses and inefficiencies in the conversion and transmission processes. By increasing the efficiency, we could get the same useful energy by burning less fuel. We need to specify conservation goals for improving the efficiency of use of fossil-fuel energy. These include taxing oil to keep prices high and to encourage a reduction in energy use; encouraging nuclear energy; questioning if and how economic growth can continue without an increase in fossil fuels; lowering speed limits on roads and encouraging public transport; or redirecting tax credits towards renewable-energy development. The transformation will take decades, so we must begin as soon as possible. Emphasizing the short-term economic imperative from oil prices must be enough to push governments into action now.

Murray* and King** 12 – *School of Oceanography, University of Washington, founding director of the University of Washington's Program on Climate Change, **director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government (James Murray and David King, “Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed” Nature 481, 433–435, January 26 2012) MR

Climate change and changes in fossil-fuel production are closely linked. The risk of fossil-fuel supply limitation should be included when considering future climate change approaches needed for tackling source scarcity and climate change are the same: moving away from a dependence on fossil-fuel energy sources. Governments that fail to plan for the decline in fossil-fuel production will be faced with major blows to their economies even before rising sea levels flood their coasts or crops begin to fail catastrophically. The solutions are not secret We need to specify goals These include renewable-energy development

The plan is key to solve inevitable high prices

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

How does oil demand respond in recessions? Oil demand may be considered a coincident indicator for economic activity. Oil demand tends to peak at the peak of the economic cycle and trough at the bottom of the recession. In a severe recession, we might expect US demand to drop 7 percent from peak to trough. US demand has fallen 8.1 percent from its December 2007 peak to March 2009, and is currently running about 19 mbpd. Based on previous recessions, one might conclude that US declines had just about run their course.

Kopits 9 – a noted energy expert and managing director of Douglas-Westwood (Steven Kopits, “Recession and Oil Demand: Looking to Recovery” Petroeconomics, August 10 2009, http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?article=11502&pageid=&pagename=) MR

How does oil demand respond in recessions? Oil demand may be a coincident indicator for economic activity. Oil demand peak at the peak of the economic cycle and trough at the bottom of the recession. In a severe recession, we expect US demand to drop from peak to trough. US demand has fallen 8.1 percent from its December 2007 peak to March 2009

Economic decline collapses demand – turns the DA

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

This paper examines the impact of oil price changes on global economic growth. Unlike some recent studies, this paper finds that oil price rises have had significant negative impacts on world economic growth. A time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in real oil price by 10 dollars is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.4 and 1% in the following year. As oil prices approach historical highs, the global economy may be vulnerable to another oil price shock.

Li 12 – associate professor of economics at the University of Utah (Dr. Mingqi Li, “Here's Why The Economy Is More Vulnerable Than Ever To Oil Price Shocks” The Oil Drum, Business Insider, March 14 2012, http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-the-economy-is-more-vulnerable-than-ever-to-oil-price-shocks-2012-3) MR

oil price rises have had significant negative impacts on world economic growth series analysis of data from 1971 to 2010 finds an increase in oil price is associated with a reduction of world economic growth As oil prices approach historical highs, the global economy may be vulnerable to another oil price shock.

High prices collapse the global economy

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

This paper examines the impact of oil price changes on global economic growth. Unlike some of the recent studies, this paper finds that oil price rises have had significant negative impact on world economic growth rates. A time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in real oil price by one dollar is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.04 and 0.1% in the following year. Therefore, an increase in real oil price by 10 dollars would be associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by between 0.4 and 1% in the following year. For a global economy that in average grows at about 3.5% a year, a reduction of this size is very significant. Moreover, the regressions seem to have suggested that the impact of oil price on economic growth may have increased over the last one or two decades. This is in contradiction with the widely held belief that the global economy has become less vulnerable to oil price shocks. These findings suggest that if the world oil production does peak and start to decline in the near future, it may impose a serious and possibly an insurmountable speed limit on the pace of global economic expansion.

Li 12 – associate professor of economics at the University of Utah (Dr. Mingqi Li, “Here's Why The Economy Is More Vulnerable Than Ever To Oil Price Shocks” The Oil Drum, Business Insider, March 14 2012, http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-why-the-economy-is-more-vulnerable-than-ever-to-oil-price-shocks-2012-3) MR

oil price rises have had significant negative impact on world economic growth rates. time-series analysis of the data from 1971 to 2010 finds that an increase in oil price is associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate an increase in oil price by 10 dollars would be associated with a reduction of world economic growth rate by 1% For a global economy that grows at about 3.5% a year, a reduction of this size is very significant. regressions suggested that the impact of oil price on economic growth increased over the last decades. This is in contradiction with the widely held belief that the global economy has become less vulnerable to oil price shocks. if the world oil production does peak it may impose a serious and insurmountable speed limit on the pace of global economic expansion.

High prices trigger economic decline – vulnerability rising now

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The rising price of oil is the single most serious threat to the global economic recovery, the U.S. economy and President Obama's reelection prospects. Right now, we are beginning to move into a pretty broad-based recovery. Manufacturing is rising for the first time in 25 years. Technology firms are doing very well. Retail is picking up. The green shoots of the housing recovery are emerging and that's very important because housing has led almost every recovery since World War II. . But all the while that you have this economic good news, you are beginning to see oil prices rise quite substantially. They're up about 15 percent over the last few months. And that could put a damper on all this good news. Why is the price of oil rising? It's happening for one reason, principally and that is geopolitical risk. There are fears of a war with Iran and fears that crippling sanctions on Iran would cut down Iranian oil exports almost entirely. If you look at demand for oil, it's just not that strong. Much of the world is in slower economic times than before. In January 2007, oil was $50 a barrel. It's now $110 a barrel. This doesn't make any economic sense unless you factor in geopolitical risk. So for oil prices to decline, there must be some resolution to the tensions with Iran. But there is a broader problem, which is that there just isn't that much oil on the market and demand is going to begin to rise again as many countries come out of their recessions and into recoveries. There isn't that much of what's called "spare capacity" - the ability to increase production quickly. The only ones who have it are Saudi Arabia and they are operating at their limits in some ways. So there are economic fundamentals that explain why oil prices are high - but not why they are so high. The reason they are so high is really Iran, Iran and Iran.

Zakaria 12 – Host of CNN's flagship foreign affairs show, Editor-at-Large of TIME Magazine, Washington Post columnist, New York Times bestselling author (Fareed Zakaria, “Why oil prices keep rising” March 9 2012, http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/09/zakaria-why-oil-prices-keep-rising/) MR

The rising price of oil is the single most serious threat to global economic recovery we are beginning to move into broad-based recovery But all the while that you have economic good news, you are beginning to see oil prices rise substantially that put a damper on all this good news. Why is the price of oil rising? geopolitical risk demand for oil it's just not that strong for oil prices to decline, there must be resolution to the tensions with Iran. there is a broader problem there isn't that much oil on the market and demand is going to rise again as many countries come out of their recessions There isn't "spare capacity" Saudi Arabia are operating at their limits economic fundamentals explain why oil prices are high The reason they are so high is Iran, Iran and Iran.

Iran is an alt cause – no Saudi spare production – and high prices collapse the global economy

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Michigan (7-week)

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2013

What does this mean for the global economy, which is so closely tied to physical resources? Of the 11 recessions in the United States since the Second World War, 10, including the most recent, were preceded by a spike in oil prices13. It seems clear that it wasn't just the 'credit crunch' that triggered the 2008 recession, but the rarely-talked-about 'oil-price crunch' as well. High energy prices erode family budgets and act as a head wind against economic recovery. The United States and Europe each spends $1 billion per day on oil imports. The average price of petrol in the United States increased from 75 cents per litre in 2010 to 95 cents per litre in 2011. Because the United States consumes about 1.4 billion litres per day, the nation spent about $280 million a day more on petrol in 2011, leaving less for discretionary items. “The price of oil is likely to have been a large contributor to the euro crisis in southern Europe.” Another powerful example of the effect of increasing oil prices can be seen in Italy. In 1999, when Italy adopted the euro, the country's annual trade surplus was $22 billion. Since then, Italy's trade balance has altered dramatically and the country now has a deficit of $36 billion. Although this shift has many causes, including the rise of imports from China, the increase in oil price was the most important. Despite a decrease in imports of 388,000 barrels per day compared with 1999, Italy now spends about $55 billion a year on imported oil, up from $12 billion in 1999. That difference is close to the current annual trade deficit. The price of oil is likely to have been a large contributor to the euro crisis in southern Europe, where countries are completely dependent on foreign oil. The International Energy Agency has made it very clear that the global economy is at risk when oil prices are greater than $100 per barrel — as they have been in recent years, and will surely continue to be, given the inelastic response of global production. Historically, there has been a tight link between oil production and global economic growth. If oil production can't grow, the implication is that the economy can't grow either. This is such a frightening prospect that many have simply avoided considering it. The International Monetary Fund, for example, still projects economic growth of 4% of gross domestic product for the next five years: near the top of the historical range since 1980. Yet to achieve that will require either a heroic increase in oil production of 3% per year, increased efficiency of oil use, more energy-efficient growth or rapid substitution of other fuel sources. Economists and politicians continually debate policies that will lead to a return to economic growth. But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem, they haven't identified the necessary solution: weaning society off fossil fuel.

Murray* and King** 12 – *School of Oceanography, University of Washington, founding director of the University of Washington's Program on Climate Change, **director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government (James Murray and David King, “Climate policy: Oil's tipping point has passed” Nature 481, 433–435, January 26 2012) MR

What does this mean for the global economy Of the 11 recessions in the U S since the Second World War 10 were preceded by a spike in oil prices High energy prices erode family budgets and act as a head wind against economic recovery. The price of oil is a large contributor to the euro crisis the global economy is at risk when oil prices are greater than $100 per barrel as they have been in recent years, and will surely continue to be there has been a tight link between oil production and global economic growth. If oil production can't grow, the economy can't grow either. Economists and politicians debate policies that will lead to economic growth. But because they have failed to recognize that the high price of energy is a central problem, they haven't identified the necessary solution: weaning society off fossil fuel.

High prices empirically collapse the economy – only reducing dependence solves

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Why are high oil prices a problem? 1. It is not just oil prices that rise. The cost of food rises as well, partly because oil is used in many ways in growing and transporting food and partly because of the competition from biofuels for land, sending land prices up. The cost of shipping goods of all types rises, since oil is used in nearly all methods of transports. The cost of materials that are made from oil, such as asphalt and chemical products, also rises. If the cost of oil rises, it tends to raise the cost of other fossil fuels. The cost of natural gas extraction tends to rises, since oil is used in natural gas drilling and in transporting water for fracking. Because of an over-supply of natural gas in the US, its sales price is temporarily less than the cost of production. This is not a sustainable situation. Higher oil costs also tend to raise the cost of transporting coal to the destination where it is used. Figure 2 shows total energy costs as a percentage of two different bases: GDP and Wages.1 These costs are still near their high point in 2008, relative to these bases. Because oil is the largest source of energy, and the highest priced, it represents the majority of energy costs. GDP is the usual base of comparison, but I have chosen to show a comparison to wages as well. I do this because even if an increase in costs takes place in the government or business sector of the economy, most of the higher costs will eventually have to be paid for by individuals, through higher taxes or higher prices on goods or services. 2. High oil prices don’t go away, except in recession. We extracted the easiest (and cheapest) to extract oil first. Even oil company executives say, “The easy oil is gone.” The oil that is available now tends to be expensive to extract because it is deep under the sea, or near the North Pole, or needs to be “fracked,” or is thick like paste, and needs to be melted. We haven’t discovered cheaper substitutes, either, even though we have been looking for years. In fact, there is good reason to believe that the cost of oil extraction will continue to rise faster than the rate of inflation, because we are hitting a situation of “diminishing returns”. There is evidence that world oil production costs are increasing at about 9% per year (7% after backing about the effect of inflation). Oil prices paid by consumers will need to keep pace, if we expect increased extraction to take place. There is even evidence that sweet sports are extracted first in Bakken tight oil, causing the cost of this extraction to rise as well. 3. Salaries don’t increase to offset rising oil prices. Most of us know from personal experience that salaries don’t rise with rising oil prices. In fact, as oil prices have risen since 2000, wage growth has increasingly lagged GDP growth. Figure 3 shows the ratio of wages (using the same definition as in Figure 2) to GDP. If salaries don’t rise, and prices of many types of goods and services do, something has to “give”. This disparity seems to be the reason for the continuing economic discomfort experienced in the past several years. For many consumers, the only solution is a long-term cut back in discretionary spending. 4. Spikes in oil prices tend to be associated with recessions. Economist James Hamilton has shown that 10 out of the last 11 US recessions were associated with oil price spikes. When oil prices rise, consumers tend to cut back on discretionary spending, so as to have enough money for basics, such as food and gasoline for commuting. These cut-backs in spending lead to lay-offs in discretionary sectors of the economy, such as vacation travel and visits to restaurants. The lay-offs in these sectors lead to more cutbacks in spending, and to more debt defaults. 5. High oil prices don’t “recycle” well through the economy. Theoretically, high oil prices might lead to more employment in the oil sector, and more purchases by these employees. In practice, this provides only a very partial offset to higher price. The oil sector is not a big employer, although with rising oil extraction costs and more US drilling, it is getting to be a larger employer. Oil importing countries find that much of their expenditures must go abroad. Even if these expenditures are recycled back as more US debt, this is not the same as more US salaries. Also, the United States government is reaching debt limits. Even within oil exporting countries, high oil prices don’t necessarily recycle to other citizens well. A recent study shows that 2011 food price spikes helped trigger the Arab Spring. Since higher food prices are closely related to higher oil prices (and occurred at the same time), this is an example of poor recycling. As populations rise, the need to keep big populations properly fed and otherwise cared for gets to be more of an issue. Countries with high populations relative to exports, such as Iran, Nigeria, Russia, Sudan, and Venezuela would seem to have the most difficulty in providing needed goods to citizens. 6. Housing prices are adversely affected by high oil prices. If a person is required to pay more for oil, food, and delivered goods of all sorts, less will be left over for discretionary spending. Buying a new home is one such type of discretionary expenditure. US housing prices started to drop in mid 2006, according to data of the S&P Case Shiller home price index. This timing fits in well with when oil prices began to rise, based on Figure 1. 7. Business profitability is adversely affected by high oil prices. Some businesses in discretionary sectors may close their doors completely. Others may lay off workers to get supply and demand back into balance. 8. The impact of high oil prices doesn’t “go away”. Citizens’ discretionary income is permanently lower. Businesses that close when oil prices rise generally don’t re-open. In some cases, businesses that close may be replaced by companies in China or India, with lower operating costs. These lower operating costs indirectly reflect the fact that the companies use less oil, and the fact that their workers can be paid less, because the workers use less oil. This is a part of the reason why US employment levels remain low, and why we don’t see a big bounce-back in growth after the Great Recession. Figure 4 below shows the big shifts in oil consumption that have taken place. A major part of the “fix” for high oil prices that does takes place is provided by the government. This takes the place in the form of unemployment benefits, stimulus programs, and artificially low interest rates. Efficiency changes may provide some mitigation, as older less fuel-efficient cars are replaced with more fuel-efficient cars. Of course, if the more fuel-efficient cars are more expensive, part of the savings to consumers will be lost because of higher monthly payments for the replacement vehicles. 9. Government finances are especially affected by high oil prices. With higher unemployment rates, governments are faced with paying more unemployment benefits and making more stimulus payments. If there have been many debt defaults (because of more unemployment or because of falling home prices), the government may also need to bail out banks. At the same time, taxes collected from citizens are lower, because of lower employment. A major reason (but not the only reason) for today’s debt problems of the governments of large oil importers, such as US, Japan, and much of Europe, is high oil prices. Governments are also affected by the high cost of replacing infrastructure that was built when oil prices were much lower. For example, the cost of replacing asphalt roads is much higher. So is the cost of replacing bridges and buried underground pipelines. The only way these costs can be reduced is by doing less–going back to gravel roads, for example.

Tverberg 13 – M. S. from the University of Illinois, Chicago in Mathematics, and is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries (Gail Tverberg, “Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem” OilPrice.com, January 20 2013, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Ten-Reasons-Why-High-Oil-Prices-are-a-Problem.html) MR

Why are high oil prices a problem? It is not just oil prices that rise. The cost of food rises as well because oil is used in growing and transporting food The cost of shipping goods rises The cost of materials that are made from oil also rises If the cost of oil rises, it raise the cost of other fossil fuels. The cost of natural gas extraction rises This is not sustainable High oil prices don’t go away, except in recession. easy oil is gone The oil that is available now is deep under the sea, or near the North Pole, or needs to be “fracked,” or is thick like paste, and needs to be melted. the cost of oil extraction will rise faster than the rate of inflation, because we are hitting a situation of “diminishing returns” world oil production costs are increasing at 9% Oil prices paid by consumers will need to keep pace Salaries don’t increase to offset rising oil prices. as oil prices have risen wage growth has increasingly lagged GDP growth If salaries don’t rise, and prices do, something has to “give”. This disparity the reason for continuing economic discomfort For consumers, the only solution is a long-term cut back in discretionary spending. Spikes in oil prices associated with recessions. 10 out of the last 11 US recessions were associated with oil price spikes. cut-backs in spending lead to lay-offs in discretionary sectors of the economy lay-offs lead to more cutbacks in spending, and more debt defaults. High oil prices don’t “recycle” through the economy. The oil sector is not a big employer Oil importing countries find much of their expenditures must go abroad. Even if these expenditures are recycled back as debt, this is not the same as more US salaries. Even within oil exporting countries, high oil prices don’t recycle to other citizens food price spikes trigger the Arab Spring. Since higher food prices are closely related to higher oil prices this is an example of poor recycling Countries with high populations relative to exports have the most difficulty in providing needed goods to citizens. Housing prices are adversely affected by high oil prices. If a person is required to pay more for oil, food, and delivered goods of all sorts, less will be left over for discretionary spending. Buying a new home is one such type of expenditure Business profitability is adversely affected by high oil prices businesses may close their doors completely. Others may lay off workers to get supply and demand back into balance. The impact of high oil prices doesn’t “go away”. Citizens’ discretionary income is permanently lower. Businesses don’t re-open some businesses that close may be replaced in China or India, with lower operating costs. These lower costs reflect the fact that the companies use less oil, and their workers can be paid less This is a reason why US employment levels remain low Government finances are especially affected by high oil prices governments are faced with more unemployment benefits and making more stimulus payments. the government may also need to bail out banks taxes are lower, because of lower employment. A major reason for today’s debt problems of large oil importers, is high oil prices Governments are affected by the high cost of replacing infrastructure that was built when oil prices were lower

High oil prices crush the global economy

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10. Higher oil prices reflect a need to focus a disproportionate share of investment and resource use inside the oil sector. This makes it increasingly difficult maintain growth within the oil sector, and acts to reduce growth rates outside the oil sector. There is a close tie between energy consumption and economic activity because nearly all economic activity requires the use of some type of energy besides human labor. Oil is the single largest source of energy, and the most expensive. When we look at GDP growth for the world, it is closely aligned with growth in oil consumption and growth in energy consumption in general. In fact, changes in oil and energy growth seem to precede GDP growth, as might be expected if oil and energy use are a cause of world economic growth. The current situation of needing increasing amounts of resources to extract oil is sometimes referred to one of declining Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI). Multiple problems are associated with declining EROEI, when cost levels are already high: (a) It becomes increasingly difficult to keep scaling up oil industry investment because of limits on debt availability, when heavy investment is made up front, and returns are many years away. As an example, Petrobas in Brazil is running into this limit. Some US oil and gas producers are reaching debt limits as well. (b) Greater use of oil within the industry leaves less for other sectors of the economy. Oil production has not been rising very quickly in recent years (Figure 6 below), so even a small increase by the industry can reduce net availability of oil to society. Some of this additional oil use is difficult to avoid. For example, if oil is located in a remote area, employees frequently need to live at great distance from the site and commute using oil-based means of transport. (c) Declining EROEI puts pressure on other limited resources as well. For example, there can be water limits, when fracking is used, leading to conflicts with other use, such as agricultural use of water. Pollution can become an increasingly large problem as well. (d) High oil investment cost can be expected to slow down new investment, and keep oil supply from rising as fast world demand rises. To the extent that oil is necessary for economic growth, this slowdown will tend to constrain growth in other economic sectors.

Tverberg 13 – M. S. from the University of Illinois, Chicago in Mathematics, and is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries (Gail Tverberg, “Ten Reasons Why High Oil Prices are a Problem” OilPrice.com, January 20 2013, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Ten-Reasons-Why-High-Oil-Prices-are-a-Problem.html) MR

Higher oil prices reflect a need to focus a disproportionate share of investment and resource use inside the oil sector. This makes it increasingly difficult maintain growth within the oil sector, and reduce growth rates outside the oil sector. GDP growth for the world is closely aligned with growth in oil consumption changes in oil and energy growth precede GDP growth The current situation of needing increasing amounts of resources to extract oil is one of declining Energy Return on Energy Invested Multiple problems are associated with declining EROEI It becomes increasingly difficult to keep scaling up oil industry investment because of limits on debt availability Greater use of oil within the industry leaves less for other sectors of the economy Declining EROEI puts pressure on other limited resources as well. there can be water limits, when fracking is used Pollution can become an increasingly large problem High oil investment cost can slow new investment, and keep oil supply from rising as fast world demand rises. this slowdown will constrain growth in other sectors

Oil returns will decline inevitably – hurts global economies

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The glass-half-empty way of interpreting this data is that China is showing early signs of stagflation, most commonly associated with the 1970s after the oil price shock in the West. Here, China’s growing dependence on oil is worth highlighting, as its consumers face steep price hikes. As the second-largest consumer of oil after the U.S., the mainland Chinese economy is increasingly exposed to higher crude prices. China is also steadily increasing the amount of oil it imports, which reached 5.57 million barrels a day in March, up 8.7% from a year earlier Last month, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) instigated its second fuel-price hike in less than five weeks, raising gasoline and diesel prices by 600 yuan ($95) per ton. This led to gasoline and diesel at the retail level increasing by between 6.5% to 7%. Read report on Chinese fuel-price increase. The price of gasoline has now reached 8 yuan a liter, or over $4.80 a gallon, while in southern Guangdong province, it was reported prices had even reached the 9-yuan-a-liter mark. Next to the U.S. average of around $3.94 a gallon this looks pricy, especially when you consider Chinese mainlanders have seen the price of gas at the pump double since 2005 from 4 yuan a liter. This is likely to come as a shock to the new generation of mainland Chinese motorists, who last year surpassed 100 million, and according to some forecasts will reach 200 million by 2020. Anecdotally, it is already possible to notice the higher prices when catching a taxi over the border from Hong Kong. Fares are considerably higher than even a few years ago, and taxi drivers are less willing to bargain. As well as pinching motorists, higher fuel prices also feed through to wider inflation. As petroleum-based fertilizers are used in agriculture, and gasoline is needed to transport goods, these higher prices will have a knock-on effect. This is one reason, it is argued, China is facing structurally higher inflation. What is uncertain is how much these higher prices impact growth where, for example, some business find they are no longer economical and cease, or when individuals might make fewer trips. While various grain producers, fishery, forestry, urban and rural public-transportation services receive fuel subsidies from the government, the rest will simply have to swallow the price increase. As the government sets fuel prices in China, it risks a fuel-price backlash. One complaint is that the concentration of large state-owned monopolies is responsible for exacerbating price increases. On the face of it, with gasoline prices a quarter higher in China than in the U.S., motorists have reason to gripe.

Stephen 12 (Craig Stephen, “Is high oil price behind China’s slowdown?” This Week in China, WSJ Market Watch, April 15 2012, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-high-oil-price-behind-chinas-slowdown-2012-04-15) MR

China is showing signs of stagflation, most commonly associated with oil price shock China’s growing dependence on oil is worth highlighting the Chinese economy is increasingly exposed to higher crude prices. China is increasing the amount of oil it imports The price of gasoline has now reached over $4.80 a gallon this looks pricy, especially when you consider Chinese mainlanders have seen the price of gas at the pump double it is already possible to notice the higher prices higher fuel prices feed through to wider inflation higher prices will have a knock-on effect. This is one reason China is facing structurally higher inflation. business find they are no longer economical and cease producers will have to swallow the price increase. the government risks a fuel-price backlash

High prices collapse the Chinese economy

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I believe I am not the first one to the effect of high oil prices on the economy, and I will most certainly not be the last one. Oil has been up of late due to all these uncertainties around North Africa and the Middle East, where oil is produced. The following chart makes it quite clear about the danger of having oil prices rising too much too quickly. It will likely derail the already uncertain economic recovery. Back in 2008 when oil prices were rising to a record, a lot of explanations have been tossed around, including speculators (which Paul Krugman did not agree), emerging market’s growth in demand, which certainly included China: The most important factor is the shift in favour of the developing economies. America has responded to high prices in familiar fashion: UBS forecasts that demand will drop by 1.1% this year and will be no higher in 2009 than it was in 2004. But demand from China and other emerging markets is more than offsetting this shortfall. – The Economist 15 May, 2008 China’s growing thirst for oil is often put forward as one of the main factors behind today’s higher oil prices. Demand for diesel there, for example, rose by over 9% in the year to April. – The Economist 29 May, 2008 For whatever reason it was, oil prices reached its all-time peak on July 2008, and on the same month, the China official PMI dropped below 50, indicating a contraction of manufacturing. In fact, long before the oil reached its peak, manufacturing has been slowing down. The point I circled in the above chart was April 2008 when the PMI peaked, and oil prices continued to rise until July. Are we in a similar situation now? Maybe. First of all, PMI has been slowing, but prices have been rising, and the PMI may continue to weaken. In fact, the HSBC/Markit flash China PMI for February (an advanced estimate) suggested a continued slowdown. Second, oil prices are now surging, just like 2008 (although for different reasons). Third, the Chinese government is now keen to fight inflation, and it was just the same back in 2008. Should inflation persist, we should expect more tightening, which will definitely be a brake to the economy.

Business Insider 11 (Zarathustra W, Founder and Managing Editor of Also Sprach Analyst, “Why Rising Oil Prices Will Hurt China The Most” Business Insider, February 26 2011, http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-prices-up-and-china-slowing-down-2011-2) MR

Oil has been up of late the danger of having oil prices rising too much too quickly will derail the already uncertain economic recovery. America has responded to high prices But demand from China is more than offsetting this shortfall China’s growing thirst for oil is one of the main factors behind today’s higher oil prices. Demand for diesel rose by over 9% oil prices reached all-time peak the China official PMI dropped below 50 manufacturing has been slowing PMI has been slowing, but prices have been rising, and the PMI may continue to weaken. the advanced estimate suggested a continued slowdown. oil prices are now surging Should inflation persist, we should expect more tightening, which will definitely be a brake to the economy.

Rising prices cause rampant Chinese inflation

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Rising oil prices could deal another blow to Asia's economies, already grappling with a slowing Chinese economy, weak export growth and an outflow of foreign funds amid expectations for an unwinding of U.S. monetary stimulus. "The problem is for emerging markets, which will be hit by high oil prices," Mark Matthews, head of research for Asia at Bank Julius Baer, told CNBC. "They are already going through a hard time right now with the rising [government bond] yields in the U.S., so it [the high oil price] would be another pressure point for emerging markets," he added. Emerging markets which include Asian countries such as India and Indonesia have seen heavy outflows of foreign cash in recent weeks amid fears that the Federal Reserve could start to take back some its monetary stimulus this year. U.S. crude oil prices pushed decisively above the $100-a-barrel mark this week on concerns that political unrest in Egypt could disrupt the supply of oil from the Middle East. Brent crude oil prices, trading at $105.47 late on Thursday, meanwhile have risen almost 3 percent in the past week alone. Asia is heavily dependent on oil and the latest data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration show that seven of the 15 countries it lists as the world's top net oil importers are from the region. They include China, Japan, India and South Korea. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects China to replace the U.S. as the world's top oil importer by 2014. "A serious spike in oil prices does have negative implications for Asian economies that depend on oil imports and in particular I am thinking about Japan and South Korea," said David Mann, the head of regional research for Asia at Standard Chartered Bank. Economists said that while they were not looking at a significant spike in oil prices at this stage, the move in oil prices was worth keeping an eye on. "Trade balances in Asia tend to swing with oil prices and most countries in the region are in surplus at the moment," said Tim Condon, head of research for Asia at ING Financial Markets. "Obviously we will all watch oil if it continues to head higher but that is the key – whether it heads higher." Analysts added that a sustained rise would feed through to higher inflation across Asia and exacerbate current account deficits in countries such as India and Indonesia. India's current account deficit narrowed to $18.1 billion in the first three months of the year compared with $32.6 billion in the final quarter of 2012, but some analysts say that the narrowing could be short-lived especially with the rupee weak. "India is one that could be impacted. It stands out because it has already seen a widening out of its current account deficit and that was in the absence of a spike in oil," said Mann at Standard Chartered.

Ranasinghe 7/4/13 (Dhara Ranasinghe, “High Oil Prices:The Last Thing Asia Needs Right Now” CNBC, July 4 2013, http://www.cnbc.com/id/100864623) MR

Rising oil prices could deal another blow to Asia's economies, already grappling with a slowing Chinese economy, weak export growth and an outflow of foreign funds emerging markets will be hit by high oil prices They are already going through a hard time right now so the high oil price would be another pressure point for emerging markets India have seen heavy outflows of foreign cash crude oil prices have risen Asia is heavily dependent on the latest data available show that seven of the 15 world's top net oil importers are from the region. A spike in oil prices have negative implications for Asian economies that depend on oil imports Economists said the move in oil prices was worth keeping an eye on. Trade balances in Asia swing with oil prices and most countries in the region are in surplus at the moment a sustained rise would feed through to higher inflation across Asia and exacerbate current account deficits in India India's current account deficit narrowed but analysts say the narrowing could be short-lived especially with the rupee weak. India stands out because it has already seen a widening out of its current account deficit and that was in the absence of a spike in oil

High prices kill the Indian economy

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The steep depreciation in rupee in the past couple of months is worsening the problem of high crude oil prices for the Indian economy. Although, the global oil prices have somewhat eased recently, the cost to India has been going up. At a time when India is battling several woes such as high inflation, rising deficits and slowing growth, a combination of weak rupee and high crude prices could further complicate matters. After reaching a peak in April 2011, the global crude oil prices have eased subsequently. Accordingly, the average price for India's crude oil basket at $106.9 in September and October was 4% below the average in the April-August 2011 period. However, in rupee terms, India's net import cost in the past couple of months at almost Rs 5,200 per barrel turned out to be nearly 4% higher than the preceding four months. It is not that the current global oil prices are at their historic peak or the rupee is at its historic low. Brent oil prices touched $143 in July 2008, while the rupee-dollar exchange rate had touched 52 in March 2009. FY09 witnessed India's fuel under-recovery zoom above Rs 1,00,000 crore. The government then could afford to plug the hole with a huge heap of oil bonds. Things are different this time as both the perils, weak rupee and high oil prices, have come back to haunt the economy and the government lacks the firepower it had three years ago. It is already seen falling behind its revenue targets and overshooting expenditure targets and hence looking at a wider fiscal deficit. India imports around 80% of the crude oil it needs. Although, the country is a net exporter of finished petroleum products, the domestic consumption has been growing at a high pace. Since FY07, India's consumption grew at a cumulative average growth rate of 4.1% to 142 million tonne in FY11 and is expected to grow 4.6% in FY12 to 148.3 million tonne, according to the petroleum ministry. This is more than twice the global growth in oil demand during this period. Rising global prices, apart from growing domestic consumption, have also created a huge fiscal burden on India as the costs are not fully passed on.

Kashelkar 11 (Ramkrishna Kashelkar, “Weak rupee, high oil prices have come back to haunt Indian economy” India Times, October 31 2011, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-10-31/news/30342136_1_indian-basket-oil-prices-brent-oil) MR

The steep depreciation in rupee is worsening the problem of high oil prices for the Indian economy. the cost to India has been going up India is battling high inflation, rising deficits and slowing growth high crude prices could further complicate matters. Things are different this time as both the perils, weak rupee and high oil prices, have come back to haunt the economy and the government lacks firepower It is falling behind its revenue targets and overshooting expenditure targets India imports 80% of the oil it needs domestic consumption has been growing at a high pace. Rising global prices created a huge fiscal burden on India as the costs are not fully passed on.

High oil prices crush India’s economy

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"The increase in crude oil prices in itself will have a negative impact on oil-importing countries like Japan, by causing a large deficit in the current account balance through a worsening of the terms of trade, and by lowering their purchasing power in real terms," Shirakawa said. He said the largest factor behind the current high crude oil prices is heightened geopolitical risk surrounding Iran, whose ambition to develop nuclear capacity has invited a threat from Israel to make a pre-emptive strike. An easing of the European debt crisis, an improvement of the U.S. economy and monetary easing around the world have also led to higher oil prices, he said. "If such price increases have a strong negative impact on the economy by lowering its purchasing power in real terms, it could become a factor dampening the economy in the long term," said the governor. But on the upside, he said, "If the high crude oil prices are caused by expectations for an improvement in the global economy, such an improvement itself could be a factor boosting the Japanese economy through higher exports." For an economy mired in years of deflation, the recent rise in crude oil prices could push up domestic prices and thus raise the public inflation expectations, Shirakawa said. But he didn't say whether this would be good for Japan's recovery as higher raw material costs would squeeze corporate profits and higher gasoline and heating oil prices would dent disposable incomes amid a slow recovery in wages.

MNI Market News 12 (“Update: BOJ Shirakawa: High Oil Prices To Hurt Japan Economy” MNI Market News, March 13 2012, https://mninews.marketnews.com/index.php/update-boj-shirakawa-high-oil-prices-hurt-japan-economy?q=content/update-boj-shirakawa-high-oil-prices-hurt-japan-economy) MR

increase in crude oil prices will have a negative impact on oil-importing countries like Japan, by causing a large deficit in the current account balance through a worsening of the terms of trade, and by lowering their purchasing power the largest factor behind the high oil prices is heightened geopolitical risk surrounding Iran, whose ambition to develop nuclear capacity invited a threat from Israel to make a pre-emptive strike. easing of the European debt crisis improvement of the U.S. economy and monetary easing around the world led to higher oil prices, price increases have a strong negative impact on the economy by lowering purchasing power For an economy mired in years of deflation, the rise in crude oil prices could push up domestic prices and the public inflation Japan's higher raw material costs would squeeze corporate profits and higher gasoline and oil prices would dent disposable incomes amid a slow recovery in wages.

High prices hurt the Japanese economy

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2013

Are higher oil prices good for Japan’s economy? No, they’re not. Yet some commentators believe that surging commodities costs might make Japan’s persistent deflation simply go away. “Japan could do with a little inflation. At home at least,” James Simms wrote in a recent online column for The Wall Street Journal. Noting that prices for Japanese imports jumped 4.7 percent in January over last year, he added, “Not everyone’s groaning over the rise in commodities prices. Mining equipment makers such as Hitachi Construction Machinery will benefit from sales as commodity exporters rush to increase production while prices are high.” Unfortunately, the idea that rising commodity prices might be a boon to Japan is based on a misunderstanding of some key economic principles. Let’s start by answering this question: Why does deflation, or a general decrease in the prices of goods and services, have a depressive effect on the economy? First, deflation reduces incomes, yet debt stays the same, so it worsens balance sheet problems and reduces spending by businesses and individuals. Two, the expectation of future deflation means that any borrowing done now will have to be repaid out of smaller wages (if the borrower is a household) or smaller profits (if the borrower is a firm) later on. Thus the expectation of future deflation also reduces spending. So, does a rise in food and energy prices do anything to alleviate these problems? No. In fact, it makes them worse by reducing purchasing power. As I have pointed out in the past, Japan suffers from inadequate consumer demand, and this one of the main reasons its economy faces persistent deflation. In a way, Japan’s situation illustrates the need for economists, in public discourse, to differentiate between inflation measures — core inflation (which excludes things that are subject to volatile price fluctuations) and headline inflation (which doesn’t exclude anything). While the global commodity surge may temporarily lead to rising headline prices in Japan, as it is now, the underlying deflation problem won’t be affected at all. This debate is related, but not exactly similar to, the usual case I make for the need to focus on core inflation. I have suggested this with regard to European Central Bank, which often switches between inflation measures, using whichever one currently makes the best case for tighter policy. In this case, my point is that looking at only one chosen inflation rate is a bad guide for policy. Backstory: Volatile Predictions By Suzanne Lorge Will Japan’s economy, which has been experiencing deflation for the past two decades, strengthen now that commodities prices are on the rise worldwide, or will it continue to stagnate? That question is at the core of a debate raging among investors and economists. Recent economic reports show that deflation in Japan slowed slightly in January, but analysts point out that when volatile food and fuel prices are removed from the calculations, annualized consumer prices actually fell 0.6 percent. But others predict that the inflation problem that is currently proving so troublesome for countries like China, one of Japan’s main trading partners, will push up prices on goods and services in Japan, thus increasing prices for exports and helping to boost its economy. However, prices would have to rise across the board. A spike only in commodities prices would be bad news for the Japanese, who rely mostly on imported oil. The price of oil hit $100 per barrel in the first week of March, an increase brought on by political unrest in Libya and other nations in the Arab world. The last time oil prices spiked to that level, in 2008, the yen fell 7 percent in four months.

Krugman 11 – professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University, awarded the Nobel in economic science in 2008 (Paul Krugman, “Rising Oil Prices: Not Exactly Good News for Japan's Economy” March 8 2011, http://www.truth-out.org/archive/item/94834:rising-oil-prices-not-exactly-good-news-for-japans-economy) MR

Are higher oil prices good for Japan’s economy? No some believe surging commodities costs might make Japan’s persistent deflation simply go away. Unfortunately, the idea that rising commodity prices might be a boon to Japan is based on a misunderstanding of some key economic principles. deflation reduces incomes, yet debt stays the same, so it worsens balance sheet problems and reduces spending by businesses and individuals expectation of future deflation means that any borrowing done now will have to be repaid out of smaller wages or smaller profit does a rise in food and energy prices do anything to alleviate these problems? it makes them worse by reducing purchasing power. Japan suffers from inadequate consumer demand Japan’s situation illustrates the need for economists to differentiate between inflation measures and headline inflation the underlying deflation problem won’t be affected at all. deflation in Japan slowed slightly but when volatile food and fuel prices are removed from the calculations, annualized consumer prices actually fell A spike only in commodities prices would be bad news for the Japanese, who rely on imported oil. The price of oil hit $100 per barrel The last time oil prices spiked to that level the yen fell 7 percent in four months.

High oil prices bad for Japan’s economy

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Because there is a strong perception, as of the end of 2005, of the abnormally high prices as being temporary, the economic impact has also been perceived as temporary. However, if the abnormally high prices are unexpectedly prolonged, there is concern that the Asian economy may receive a body blow damage, especially from the impact of (2) and (3) above. The impact is likely to particularly massive on the oil-importing developing countries in Asia where industrialization is progressing. Long-term Increase in Asia’s Oil Imports It is predicted that the rapid expansion of net oil imports by Asia will continue over the long term due to the bullish increase in demand for oil accompanying economic development (Figure 4.4). In the 1980s, Japan was the primary oil importer, but throughout the 1990s, oil imports by China, East Asia, and South Asia grew and are currently double the amount of Japan’s imports. Henceforth oil imports by this region are forecast to expand to just under three time those of Japan by 2010, just over four times by 2020, and just under six times by 2030. What this signifies is that dependence on Middle Eastern oil will quantitatively further increase. Oil imports from the Middle East quantitatively doubled from 1985 to 2004, and it is possible that they will further double between the current time and 2030. To the extent that dependence on the Middle East increases, the occurrence of any emergency situation in that region that obstructs the supply of oil will have a grave impact. Having experienced two oil shocks in the 1970s and prepared an emergency system including oil stocks, it was possible to respond relatively calmly to the Gulf crisis in 1990 and the Iraq War in 2003. As a result of that, however, an increasing number of people lack clear awareness of the oil crisis, and so there is concern that people may panic if an emergency situation were to occur across Asia. Issues to Be Overcome by Asia Through 2004 and 2005, oil prices soared and remained high, but this is not related to the problem of exhaustion of oil resources. There is no need to aim excessively for independence from oil, which is not economically feasible. It is enough if oil resources are used rationally, by employing the right resources in the right places. Judging from the weakening of the supply cushion due to delayed long-term investment and the oil market’s overreaction due to increased speculative deals in the futures market, it is difficult to avoid wild fluctuations and to ensure stabilization of oil prices. To deal with these kinds of changes in the supply and demand structure, it is necessary for Asia to boost its strength and flexibility as a consumer region while overcoming the issues stated below. (1) Development of the oil market: It is necessary to build international oil markets that represent consumer regions, such as Rotterdam in Europe and the Gulf Coast in the United States, and to transmit price information to inform competition among energies in the consumer region. (2) Flexibility to switch fuels in consumer regions: It is necessary to have the capacity in the consumer regions to mix different types of energies such as oil, coal, and gas and to easily switch among them. For instance, a gasifier plant may be considered as one option. (3) Construction of emergency oil stocks and a coordinated utilization system: It is necessary for Asian countries to build their own emergency oil stocks corresponding to their economic level and to construct a system for coordination in the event that the stocks are utilized. (4) Preparation of oil stocks at the consumer level: Since it is unlikely that oil companies will increase stocks because it is costly, if violent oil price fluctuations become unavoidable, then consumers need to prepare stocks to deal with violent price fluctuations. (5) Development of oil and gas resources in the former Soviet Union and preparation of a supply network: As a source other than the Middle East for oil and gas, it is necessary to put effort into development of oil and gas resources in the former Soviet Union and to prepare a supply network such as a pipeline to Asia. (6) Development of technology for effective usage of coal available in the region: To effectively utilize coal, which is a promising resource available in Asia, it is necessary to promote development of clean coal technology which is earth friendly. (7) Development and spread of energy conservation and environmental conservation technology: So as to ensure the environmental integrity of energy usage and to not needlessly expand energy demand, it is necessary to ensure the spread to developing countries of energy-saving technology and environmental conservation technology. (8) Development of renewable energy and new energy: It is necessary to develop nonfossil, renewable energies, etc., that are sufficiently competitive and have the supply capacity to compete with fossil fuels. Heretofore, energy demand was considered to be fixed and the emphasis has been on ensuring diversity and stability of energy acquired from outside the country or the region. In the future, it will be important to change our way of thinking and to increase the strength and flexibility of the consumer regions. The global oil supply-demand structure is entering a new phase, and based on that, there are multiple issues that need to be tackled in the twenty-first century.

Ogawa 6 – research specialist at Japan's Institute of Energy Economics (Yoshiki Ogawa, “High Oil Prices and the Asian Economy: The Impact of Skyrocketing Oil Prices on Asia” 2006, http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Books/Yearbook/pdf/2006_06.pdf) MR

if abnormally high prices are prolonged the Asian economy may receive a body blow damage The impact is particularly massive on oil-importing developing countries in Asia rapid expansion of oil imports by Asia will continue over the long term due to the bullish increase in demand for oil accompanying economic development dependence on Middle Eastern oil will quantitatively further increase. Oil imports from the Middle East will further double between the current time and 2030 the occurrence of any emergency situation in that region that obstructs the supply of oil will have a grave impact an increasing number of people lack awareness of the oil crisis there is concern that people may panic if an emergency situation were to occur across Asia. To deal with changes in the supply and demand structure, it is necessary for Asia to boost its strength and flexibility as a consumer region Development of renewable energy It is necessary to develop nonfossil, renewable energies that are competitive with fossil fuels. it will be important to change our way of thinking and increase the strength and flexibility of the consumer regions. The global oil supply-demand structure is entering a new phase

High oil prices hurt the Asian economy – renewables key to solve

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The high price of oil could threaten Japan's economic growth, the country's economics minister said on Friday. “Japan's economy is showing positive signs of emerging from a soft patch, but oil prices may become a risk factor,” Heizo Takenaka told a news conference. Mr Takenaka's comments, made as oil prices rose close to record nominal highs, underscored fears that Japan's recent economic progress could be derailed by factors that ministers would shrug off if growth was more robust. Economists say the Japanese economy is less affected in direct terms than most other large economies by rising oil prices. But oil prices could exert an indirect effect by weakening global economic growth, hitting overseas demand for Japanese goods. Paul Sheard, economist at Lehman Brothers, said: “Given that Japan is very much struggling to get on its feet” higher oil prices could create a “headwind, more through the indirect than the direct effect.” Hiroyuki Hosoda, chief cabinet secretary, told a separate news conference on Friday he was “concerned” by oil's rising cost, “as its negative effect on the world's economic development is large”. The cabinet's chief spokesman said a slowdown in the world economy could lead to lower Japanese exports.

Turner 5 (David Turner, “High oil prices may derail Japan economy” Financial Times, June 24 2005, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/160db320-e4a3-11d9-95f3-00000e2511c8.html#axzz2ag68UQry) MR

The high price of oil threaten Japan's economic growth Japan's economy is showing positive signs but oil prices may become a risk factor Japan's recent economic progress could be derailed oil prices weaken global economic growth, hitting overseas demand for Japanese goods. Japan is very much struggling to get on its feet higher oil prices could create a “headwind chief cabinet secretary, told a news conference he was “concerned” by oil's rising cost its negative effect on the world's economic development is large a slowdown in the world economy could lead to lower Japanese exports.

High oil prices derail Japanese recovery

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The global demand for energy is currently growing beyond the limits of installable generation capacity. To meet future energy demands efficiently, energy security and reliability must be improved and alternative energy sources must be investigated aggressively. An effective energy solution should be able to address long-term issues by utilizing alternative and renewable energy sources. Of the many available renewable sources of energy, solar energy is clearly a promising option as it is extensively available. Solar power, especially as it reaches more competitive levels with other energy sources in terms of cost, may serve to sustain the lives of millions of underprivileged people in developing countries. Furthermore, solar energy devices can benefit the environment and economy of developing countries. This paper illustrates the need for the utilization of alternative energy sources, evaluates the global scenario of installed generation systems, reviews technologies underlying various solar powered devices, and discusses several applications and challenges in this area. In addition, this paper addresses the costs of deployment, maintenance, and operation, as well as economic policies that promote installation of solar energy systems.

Devabhaktuni et al. 13 (Vijay Devabhaktuni, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Mansoor Alam, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Soma Shekar, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Sreenadh Reddy Depuru, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Robert C. Green II, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Douglas Nims, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toledo; Craig Near, Genziko Inc. “Solar energy: Trends and enabling technologies” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 19, Pages 555–564, March 2013, SciVerse) MR

global demand for energy is growing beyond the limits of installable generation capacity. To meet future energy demands efficiently alternative energy sources must be investigated aggressively. An effective energy solution should be able to address long-term issues by utilizing alternative and renewable energy sources. solar energy is a promising option Solar power may sustain the lives of millions solar energy devices benefit the environment and economy of developing countries. need for the utilization of alternative energy sources

Alternatives key – solar solves

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Solar technologies are an extremely promising renewable resource considering their ever-increasing output efficiencies and ability to be utilized in a variety of locations. The intrinsic qualities of solar energy make it a beneficial utility, especially for developing countries, for many reasons: first, most developing countries are located in regions with optimal access to the sun's rays. This is illustrated in Fig. 2. For instance, India's solar power reception is about 5000 trillion kWh per year. In addition, the average radiation in tropical and sub-tropical regions located in developing countries can be compared to that of annual global radiation of about 1600–2200 kWh/m2[4]. Second, most of the available fossil fuel and energy resources can only be used by exploiting the ecosystem, which leads to social decline. Third, rising global independence of fossil fuels quickens the need for solar technology, escalates enhancement of required research, and thereby lowers related costs. Fourth, solar systems are relatively affordable and applicable to both homes and villages, as households of industrialized nations are using more solar power than ever before. Finally, within solar technologies, passive solar designs excel when considering renewable energy for buildings, and can be coupled with solar panels to achieve maximum comfort and sustainability.

Devabhaktuni et al. 13 (Vijay Devabhaktuni, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Mansoor Alam, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Soma Shekar, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Sreenadh Reddy Depuru, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Robert C. Green II, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Douglas Nims, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toledo; Craig Near, Genziko Inc. “Solar energy: Trends and enabling technologies” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 19, Pages 555–564, March 2013, SciVerse) MR

Solar technologies are an extremely promising renewable resource considering their ever-increasing output efficiencies and ability to be utilized in a variety of locations intrinsic qualities of solar energy make it beneficial for developing countries most developing countries are in regions with optimal access to the sun's rays. the average radiation in tropical and sub-tropical regions in developing countries can be compared to that of annual global radiation most of the available fossil fuel and energy resources can only be used by exploiting the ecosystem, which leads to social decline rising global independence of fossil fuels quickens the need for solar technology solar systems are affordable and applicable to homes and villages within solar technologies, passive solar designs excel for buildings, and can be coupled with solar panels to achieve maximum sustainability

Solar is most beneficial for developing countries

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Driven by advances in technology and increase in manufacturing scale and sophistication, the cost of PV cells has declined steadily since the first solar cells were manufactured [10]. Although the cost of electricity produced from PV systems is still higher than the other competing technologies, this cost is expected to continue to decline steadily. The cost of PV installation was $2 per unit of generating capacity in 2009 which came-down to about $1.50 in 2011. According to industry analysis, this price is slated to reach $1 per unit of generating capacity by 2013. These potential reductions in cost, combined with the simplicity, versatility, reliability, and low environmental impact of PV systems, should help PV systems to become highly utilized sources of economical, premium-quality power over the next 20–30 years. At present, in the USA, the levelized cost of energy from PV is $0.211/kWh and from CSP is $0.312/kWh [33]. Solar electric prices today are at approximately $0.30/kWh, or around 2–5 times the average residential electricity tariffs (the calculation depends on installation location and local electric rates). This is due to the high installation costs involved. Table 2 shows a comparison of the construction cost, operation and maintenance cost, and fuel costs for various sources of electricity generation. In developing countries, SES can provide the basic energy needs of houses in remote and rural areas at a fraction of the cost spent on traditional electricity. Thus, the cost of electricity from PV systems is relatively cost effective. Demand for solar powered systems is very high in countries with high electricity tariffs. Fig. 6(a) shows the improvement in affordability of both solar thermal and solar PV systems. Fig. 6(b) illustrates the current electricity costs of generation using various major renewable energy sources.

Devabhaktuni et al. 13 (Vijay Devabhaktuni, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Mansoor Alam, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Soma Shekar, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Sreenadh Reddy Depuru, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Robert C. Green II, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Douglas Nims, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toledo; Craig Near, Genziko Inc. “Solar energy: Trends and enabling technologies” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 19, Pages 555–564, March 2013, SciVerse) MR

the cost of PV cells has declined steadily since the first solar cells were manufactured The cost of PV installation was $2 per unit of generating capacity in 2009 which came-down to $1.50 in 2011 potential reductions in cost, combined with the simplicity, versatility, reliability, and low environmental impact of PV systems help PV systems to become highly utilized sources of economical, premium-quality power In developing countries, SES provide basic energy needs of houses in remote and rural areas at a fraction of the cost spent on traditional electricity PV is cost effective Demand for solar is high

Solar is the most preferable

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The main role of all types of solar power in developing countries is twofold: easing the burden of energy production for everyday tasks and lessening the carbon emissions of developing economies. Pursuing these goals will aid in reducing poverty and increasing the general well-being of individuals in these countries [54]. As an example, 30–40% of energy is typically spent on water heating that is done by hauling/burning wood or other fossil fuels [54]. The addition of a solar powered water heating system would lead to increased freedom from this burden (leading to opportunities to pursue other ventures) and increased hygiene due to installed plumbing [54]. Due to these obvious benefits of solar installations in developing countries, much work has been completed regarding general policy [28], [55], [56], [57], [58] and [59] and viability [56], [60] and [61] while also heavily investigating individual locations [28], [62] and [63]. While this work is extensive, it can be summarized in by considering a few main issues: (1) the use of solar in developing countries is highly beneficial in terms of independence, health, and economic growth, (2) governments need to put policies in place that attract investment and encourage development of this sector, and (3) solar, in general, is an excellent option for developing countries due to their access to high levels of sunlight. 9. Conclusions Solar power is proving to be an attractive opportunity in terms of both business and power generation. Significant improvements have already been accomplished by numerous international, governmental, and non-governmental organizations including the funding and development of projects involving renewable energy systems for various developed as well as developing nations. This progress is transforming uninhabitable conditions into quality living spaces and providing new luxuries to those who were once lacking. Ecosystems, developing societies, and the solar energy market will only benefit from an increase in solar PV system installations. Funding for these systems, however, is a challenging aspect when considering the widespread demand. Fortunately, as more and more organizations volunteer their financial, professional and technical services, solar energy is becoming more cost effective.

Devabhaktuni et al. 13 (Vijay Devabhaktuni, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Mansoor Alam, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Soma Shekar, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Sreenadh Reddy Depuru, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Robert C. Green II, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Toledo; Douglas Nims, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toledo; Craig Near, Genziko Inc. “Solar energy: Trends and enabling technologies” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Volume 19, Pages 555–564, March 2013, SciVerse) MR

The main role of solar is easing the burden of energy production for everyday tasks and lessening carbon emissions these goals will aid in reducing poverty and increasing well-being of individuals , 30–40% of energy is spent on hauling/burning wood or other fossil fuels solar powered water heating system lead to increased freedom from this burden and increased hygiene work has been completed regarding policy the use of solar in developing countries is highly beneficial in terms of independence, health, and economic growth governments need policies that attract investment and encourage development of this sector, and solar is an excellent option for developing countries Solar power is an attractive opportunity in terms of business and power generation progress is transforming uninhabitable conditions into quality living spaces and providing new luxuries to those who were once lacking. Ecosystems, developing societies, and the solar market will only benefit from an increase in solar PV installations. Funding is challenging

Solar power is equitable and can be scaled up

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The demand on fresh water is growing steadily and is becoming one of the worldwide challenges. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 20% of the world's population has inadequate access to drinking water. Although over two-thirds of the planet is covered with water, 99.3% of the total water is either too salty (seawater) or inaccessible (ice caps). Since water is potable only when it contains less than 500 ppm of salt, much research has gone into finding efficient methods of removing salt from seawater and brackish water. These are called desalination processes. Desalination of seawater is a promising alternative to compensate for the shortage of drinking water. Generally, desalination can be accomplished using a number of techniques. These may be classified under the following categories:Thermal processes that involve phase change such as Multi-Effect Distillation (MED) and Multi Stage Flash (MSF). Membrane processes that do not involve phase change such as Reverse Osmosis (RO) and electro dialysis (ED).Hybrid process that involve both membrane and phase change such as membrane distillation (MD). The thermal desalination processes depend on the evaporation of water by the addition of heat provided by the sun or by combustion processes, this was one of mankind's earliest forms of water treatment and is still a popular treatment solution. On the other hand, the development of modern polymeric materials in recent years has led to the production of membranes which allow the selective passage of water in liquid or vapor state or ions and thus providing the basis for membrane desalination processes. Among those membrane processes, RO is the leading commercial membrane desalination process which requires applying high pressure to overcome the osmotic pressure. It is worth mentioning that both, thermal and RO are the leading desalination processes in the water market [1]. However, those processes suffer from drawbacks and some technical difficulties which are: i) They are considered energy intensive either by the heat demand (i.e. thermal processes) or by the high pressure demand as in reverse osmosis process, this high energy consumption generates more pollutants and undesired emissions. ii) The scaling and fouling problem is one of the major challenges that adds to the complexity and cost of those processes. iii) The membrane cost and its durability in the membrane processes are still immature subjects that require more research and development. These drawbacks affected the economic feasibility of those processes, which necessitates the search for alternative, environment friendly and sustainable desalination. Membrane distillation (MD) is a promising new comer to the desalination processes which can be coupled to low-grade and renewable energy source such as wind and solar energy. The developments in the use of renewable energy sources (RES) have demonstrated that it is ideally suited for desalination, when the demand of fresh water is not too large. The rapid escalation in the costs of fuels has made the RES alternative more attractive. In certain remote arid regions, this may be the only alternative. The interdependence of water and energy is increasingly evident due to their territorial, environmental and economic implications. Innovations in the area of energy supply can improve the economic viability of prospective desalination plants considerably. Recently, considerable attention has been given to the use of renewable energy including solar, wind and geothermal as sources for desalination, especially in remote areas and islands, because of the high costs of fossil fuels. Solar energy can be used for seawater desalination either by producing the thermal energy required to drive the phase-change processes or by producing the electricity required to drive the membrane processes.

Qtaishat* and Banat** 13 – *Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Jordan **Department of Chemical Engineering, The Petroleum Institute (Mohammed Rasool Qtaishat and Fawzi Banat “Desalination by solar powered membrane distillation systems” Desalination Volume 308, Pages 186–197, January 2 2013, SciVerse) MR

demand on fresh water is growing steadily and becoming one of the worldwide challenges 20% of the population has inadequate access to drinking water Since water is potable only when it contains less than 500 ppm of salt, much research has gone into finding efficient methods of removing salt from seawater Desalination of seawater is a promising alternative to compensate for the shortage of drinking water. Membrane distillation is a promising new comer to the desalination processes which can be coupled to low-grade and renewable energy source such as wind and solar developments in the use of renewable energy sources demonstrated that it is ideally suited for desalination rapid escalation in the costs of fuels made the RES alternative attractive this may be the only alternative. interdependence of water and energy is increasingly evident due to territorial, environmental and economic implications. Innovations in energy supply improve the economic viability of prospective desalination plants considerably. considerable attention has been given to renewable energy including solar, wind and geothermal as sources for desalination because of the high costs of fossil fuels. Solar energy can be used for seawater desalination by producing the thermal energy required to drive the phase-change processes or by producing the electricity required to drive the membrane processes.

Renewables are key to desalination

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Over one-third of the world’s population already lives in areas struggling to keep up with the demand for fresh water. By 2025, that number will nearly double. Some countries have met the challenge by tapping into natural sources of fresh water, but as many examples – such as the much-depleted Jordan River – have demonstrated, many of these practices are far from sustainable. A new Yale University study argues that seawater desalination should play an important role in helping combat worldwide fresh water shortages once conservation, reuse and other methods have been exhausted. The study also provides insights into how desalination technology can be made more affordable and energy efficient. “The globe’s oceans are a virtually inexhaustible source of water, but the process of removing its salt is expensive and energy intensive,” said Menachem Elimelech, a professor of chemical and environmental engineering at Yale and lead author of the study, which appears in the Aug. 5 issue of the journal Science. Reverse osmosis – forcing seawater through a membrane that filters out the salt – is the leading method for seawater desalination in the world today. For years, scientists have focused on increasing the membrane’s water flux using novel materials, such as carbon nanotubes, to reduce the amount of energy required to push water through it.

Muzzin 11 (Suzanne Taylor Muzzin, “Better Desalination Technology Would Help Solve World's Water Shortage” Yale News, August 4 2011, http://news.yale.edu/2011/08/04/better-desalination-technology-would-help-solve-worlds-water-shortage) MR

Over one-third of the world lives in areas struggling to keep up with demand for fresh water that number will double awater desalination should play an important role in helping combat worldwide fresh water shortages The globe’s oceans are a inexhaustible source of water, but the process of removing its salt is expensive and energy intensive Reverse osmosis is the leading method for seawater desalination

Desalination solves water scarcity

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Green technology not only helps to sustain the environment, but it also helps to sustain the US economy by providing new jobs. A Brookings Institution report estimates that between 2008 and 2011, the number of green jobs in the US grew 260 percent from 750,000 to 2.7 million. Much of this job creation stems from the increased awareness of, and demand for, green technology by the consuming public. Manufacturing New Jobs With an increased focus on job creation during this election year, one particular sector has seen ongoing growth: manufacturing. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ April 2012 Employment Situation Summary, the manufacturing industry added 489,000 jobs in the US since January 2010. With the high demand for green technology and sustainable energy solutions comes the growth of jobs in the cleantech manufacturing industry. The Brookings Institution also reports more jobs in the green technology and renewable energy industries than in the fossil fuel sector, with 26 percent of cleantech jobs being in manufacturing. An increase in job creation will directly impact the domestic economy and job market—so long as we make manufacturing advancements in the US and create and sustain the jobs. Developing and manufacturing energy storage technology domestically results in national profit from cost savings, environmental benefits, increased job availability and national competitive advantage. With the development and improvement of energy storage technology such as ultracapacitors, the prices of these systems will drop, leading to mass adoption of applications that use them, such as electric vehicles. As a result, consumers will experience significant fuel cost savings, and harmful emissions will be less likely to enter the atmosphere. The continued demand for better energy storage options results in more jobs created in the ultracapacitor manufacturing industry. Companies in the space will expand their product lines, resulting in more hiring across their businesses, from manufacturing to sales to administration. Small Businesses Equals Big Job Opportunities According to a recent report by the US Small Business Administration, small businesses outperformed large companies in net job creation by about 75 percent from 1992-2010. This growth coupled with the nation’s entrepreneurial spirit contributes to the United States’ competitive advantage by innovating, creating jobs and stimulating economic recovery. Another study by the US Small Business Administration finds small businesses responsible for much of the green technology innovation. Small businesses hold 14 percent of all US green technology patents. Given the job creation by small businesses coupled with the innovation within the green technology space, it only makes sense that opportunities with small businesses in green technologies will abound. Made in the USA In addition to creating new jobs in the clean technology manufacturing space, we’re also witnessing increases in American companies reshoring and bringing jobs back home. While offshoring was once popular due to the reduced operational costs in overseas markets, reshoring has a growing appeal due to such factors as high fuel prices raising shipping and transport costs. A survey conducted by engineering professor and supply-chain expert, David Simchi-Levi of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, found that 39 percent of U.S. manufacturers were contemplating moving some of their manufacturing operations back to the US. By reshoring various business operations and not just manufacturing jobs, companies not only help the American job market, but also gain better quality control. There is value and pride in having a product labeled as both a green technology and “made in America.” Domestic manufacturing of clean technology improves a company’s image with both internal and external stakeholders, creating pride among employees and a strong reputation with the public and customers. Not only that, but it taps into a sense of patriotism for having impacted the U.S. economy by producing more exports and more domestic jobs. If the US fails to take the initiative to design and manufacture innovations in renewable energy, we will miss out, and our foreign competitors will reap the benefits. We will move from a dependency on foreign oil to a dependency on foreign energy storage. President Obama echoed this sentiment in his State of the Union address in January, proposing tax incentives for companies bringing their operations back to the U.S. and tax penalties for those who do not. He declared, “It’s time to stop rewarding businesses that ship jobs overseas, and start rewarding companies that create jobs right here in America.” The End Goal Cleantech manufacturing provides the necessary support to increase the nation’s renewable energy output. Cost-efficiency, savings and a greater number of jobs are great perks resulting from the growth of the cleantech industry, but the main goal of clean technology remains the widespread adoption of renewable energy applications for a cleaner, more sustainable environment.

Hall 6/20 Founder & Vice President Ioxus, Inc. (Chad, June 20, 2012, “Cleantech Industry Powers US Economy with Job Creation,” http://www.environmentalleader.com/2012/06/20/cleantech-industry-powers-us-economy-with-job-creation/) //DR. H

Green technology not only helps to sustain the environment, but it also helps to sustain the US economy by providing new jobs. between 2008 and 2011, the number of green jobs in the US grew 260 percent from 750,000 to 2.7 million. Much of this job creation stems from the increased awareness of green technology by the consuming public. With an increased focus on job creation during this election year, one particular sector has seen ongoing growth: manufacturing. the manufacturing industry added 489,000 jobs in the US since January 2010. With the high demand for green technology and sustainable energy solutions comes the growth of jobs in the cleantech manufacturing industry. The Brookings Institution also reports more jobs in the green technology and renewable energy industries than in the fossil fuel sector An increase in job creation will directly impact the domestic economy and job market—so long as we make advancements and sustain the jobs. Developing and manufacturing energy storage technology domestically results in national profit from cost savings, environmental benefits, increased job availability and national competitive advantage. , consumers will experience significant fuel cost savings, and harmful emissions will be less likely to enter the atmosphere. The continued demand for better energy storage options results in more jobs created in the ultracapacitor manufacturing industry. This growth coupled with the nation’s entrepreneurial spirit contributes to the United States’ competitive advantage by innovating, creating jobs and stimulating economic recovery. Administration finds small businesses responsible for much of the green technology innovation. Small businesses hold 14 percent of all US green technology patents. Given the job creation by small businesses coupled with the innovation within the green technology space, it only makes sense that opportunities with small businesses in green technologies will abound. In addition to creating new jobs in the clean technology manufacturing space, we’re also witnessing increases in American companies reshoring and bringing jobs back home. ompanies not only help the American job market, but also gain better quality control. There is value and pride in having a product labeled as both a green technology and “made in America.” it taps into a sense of patriotism for having impacted the U.S. economy by producing more exports and more domestic jobs. If the US fails to take the initiative to design and manufacture innovations in renewable energy, we will miss out, and our foreign competitors will reap the benefits. We will move from a dependency on foreign oil to a dependency on foreign energy storage. Cleantech manufacturing provides the necessary support to increase the nation’s renewable energy output. Cost-efficiency, savings and a greater number of jobs are great perks resulting from the growth of the cleantech industry, but the main goal of clean technology remains the widespread adoption of renewable energy applications for a cleaner, more sustainable environment.

The US needs to create clean tech—key to solve warming, employment, and prevent foreign energy dependence

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Protecting our national security, growing our economy, and avoiding the most catastrophic effects of global climate change require massively restructuring our energy system. Over the next 10 years the United States needs to move from a fossil-fuel-based economy to one powered by clean, domestic energy. Navigating this transition will require hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital investment from both public and private sources. We also need to reverse the current jobs crisis in a time of tight federal budgets and financial austerity. The solution is a Green Bank, which is the right tool to unlock private capital investment to renew America’s energy infrastructure and create jobs. A transformed clean energy economy will rely on both deploying existing and proven technologies and the development of new highly innovative, high-growth technologies and business practices that today are still being developed in laboratories and business incubators. The U.S. government has an important function in developing better tools for financing and commercializing new energy solutions and bringing them to commercial scale. Through a tool such as the Green Bank the government also will support private investor leadership in unlocking this dynamic engine of jobs, growth, and competitiveness. The United States will not remain a global leader in technology innovation in the clean energy sector without a sustained effort to move advanced energy from basic research, to early phase R&D, through to commercialization, manufacturing at scale, and the deployment of these technologies in functioning energy markets. Meeting this challenge has tremendous implications for America’s economic recovery and the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. Yet very real structural barriers exist to financing this technology innovation process and sustaining the new jobs and industries it already supports. These financial market barriers are over and above the cyclical investment challenges that already hurt new investment as a result of the global economic downturn. Many of our economic competitors already established clean energy finance entities to overcome these barriers. Sustainable Development Technology Canada provides a useful model, as well as green banks in the United Kingdom, Germany, and China. Launching a Green Bank financing facility here in the United States to attract new private capital to key domestic investments on our shores offers a proven, market-driven, and truly bipartisan approach to reigniting capital markets in support of American business innovation. This memo outlines a specific proposal to improve private capital markets for clean energy investment in the United States through the development of a dedicated independent Green Bank, which can be pursued either as a standalone facility or within the context of a broader program of infrastructure finance.

Hendricks and Caperton 11 Hendricks: Senior Fellow at American Progress, Works at the interface of global warming solutions and economic development, longtime leader in promoting policies that create green jobs, sustainable infrastructure, and investment in cities, Caperton: Director of Clean Energy Investment at American Progress, Former policy fellow at the Alliance for Climate Protection (Bracken Hendricks, Richard W. Caperton, September 2, 2011, “A Green Bank Is the Right Tool for Jobs,” http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/09/green_bank_jobs.html)//DR. H

Protecting our national security, growing our economy, and avoiding the most catastrophic effects of global climate change require massively restructuring our energy system. Over the next 10 years the United States needs to move from a fossil-fuel-based economy to one powered by clean, domestic energy. Navigating this transition will require hundreds of billions of dollars in new capital investment We also need to reverse the current jobs crisis The solution is a Green Bank, which is the right tool to unlock private capital investment to renew America’s energy infrastructure and create jobs. the Green Bank the government also will support private investor leadership in unlocking this dynamic engine of jobs, growth, and competitiveness. The United States will not remain a global leader in technology innovation in the clean energy sector without a sustained effort to move advanced energy Meeting this challenge has tremendous implications for America’s economic recovery and the global competitiveness of U.S. industries. This memo outlines a specific proposal to improve private capital markets for clean energy investment in the United States through the development of a dedicated independent Green Bank, which can be pursued either as a standalone facility or within the context of a broader program of infrastructure finance.

Green economy solves warming, the economy, and national security

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Tens of millions of new jobs can be created around the world in the next two decades if green policies are put in place to switch the high-carbon economy to low-carbon, the UN has said. Between 15 million and 60 million additional jobs are likely, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). These are net gains in employment for the world economy, taking into account any job losses in high-carbon industries that fail to transform. Achim Steiner, executive director of UNEP, said: "The findings underline that [the green economy] can include millions more people in terms of overcoming poverty and delivering improved livelihoods for this and future generations. It is a positive message of opportunity in a troubled world of challenges." As well as generating net new gains in the number of jobs, the switch to a green economy could help to lift millions of people out of poverty. In the US, there are now about three million green jobs, in sectors such as wind power and energy efficiency, the study found. In the UK, the number is close to one million and has been one of the few areas of the economy that has been creating jobs. There are about 500,000 people working in green jobs in Spain. In the developing world, too, the number is growing rapidly—about 7 percent of people employed in Brazil, amounting to three million people, are now in the green economy. However, realizing the full potential of green jobs depends on countries taking action to develop the green economy and bringing in policies that will foster investment, according to the report. Juan Somavia, director general of the International Labour Organisation, which was co-author of the report, said: "The current development model has proven to be inefficient and unsustainable, not only for the environment, but for economies and societies as well. We urgently need to move to a sustainable development path with a coherent set of policies, with people and the planet at the center." He rebuffed claims that greening industry would lead to job losses, because of the changes to some traditional industries such as fossil fuel extraction. He said: "Environmental sustainability is not a job killer, as it is sometimes claimed. On the contrary, if properly managed, it can lead to more and better jobs, poverty reduction and social inclusion. Some areas are more vulnerable to losses—global fishing fleets, for instance, will probably have to be reduced if overfishing is to be tackled, and fishermen will have to be found new employment. But the report found that long-term sustainable management could avoid job losses. For instance, an estimated one million people in Asia may have lost jobs in forestry because of poor resource management, which could have been largely avoided with better policies and enforcement. Jobs easily identified as "green"—workers in renewable energy, for instance, maintaining forests or installing insulation—are not the only ones to be touched by the shift to a more environmentally sustainable economy. At least half of the global workforce will be affected in some way by 2030, the study found. This will stretch from people whose industrial processes are overhauled to cut greenhouse gases, to farmers who change their methods to be more environmentally friendly, and workers in the construction industry who begin to install new greener materials. Some of the sectors identified in the report as being most affected by the changes include agriculture, forestry, fishing, energy, resource-intensive manufacturing, recycling, building and transport. Women could benefit—if the shift is managed properly it could provide them with better access to jobs and higher incomes. The study, "Working Towards Sustainable Development: Opportunities for Decent Work and Social Inclusion in a Green Economy," has been timed to be published ahead of World Environment Day next week, and to inform discussions at the landmark Rio+20 environmental conference, where nations will attempt to work on a new set of targets and agreements to help halt environmental degradation around the world.

Harvey 5/31 Environment Correspondent at Financial Times (Fiona, May 31, 2012, “Switching to a Green Economy Could Mean Millions of Jobs,” http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2012/05/green-economy-job-growth-un)//DR. H

Tens of millions of new jobs can be created around the world in the next two decades if green policies are put in place to switch the high-carbon economy to low-carbon Between 15 million and 60 million additional jobs are likely These are net gains in employment for the world economy, taking into account any job losses in high-carbon industries that fail to transform. [the green economy] can include millions more people in terms of overcoming poverty and delivering improved livelihoods for this and future generations. As well as generating net new gains in the number of jobs, the switch to a green economy could help to lift millions of people out of poverty. there are now about three million green jobs the number is growing rapidly in the green economy. realizing the full potential of green jobs depends on countries taking action to develop the green economy and bringing in policies that will foster investment The current development model has proven to be inefficient and unsustainable, not only for the environment, but for economies and societies as well. We urgently need to move to a sustainable development path with a coherent set of policies, with people and the planet at the center." Environmental sustainability is not a job killer, as it is sometimes claimed. On the contrary , it can lead to more and better jobs, poverty reduction and social inclusion. long-term sustainable management could avoid job losses. an estimated one million people in Asia may have lost jobs in forestry which could have been largely avoided with better policies and enforcement. Jobs easily identified as "green" are not the only ones to be touched by the shift to a more environmentally sustainable economy. At least half of the global workforce will be affected in some way by 2030 Women could benefit—if the shift is managed properly it could provide them with better access to jobs and higher incomes. nations will attempt to work on a new set of targets and agreements to help halt environmental degradation around the world.

Green economy solves poverty, patriarchy, and job growth

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The foregoing is an extended argument for regulation in climate policy. Nevertheless, alone, that is, without technology-specific policy, it is insufficient. The reason is that it will encourage the choice of currently cost-effective technological options, to the detriment of environmental technologies that will perform better in the long term. In other words, environmental regulation alone will suffer from a myopia bias. Economic studies anyway show that we should not expect a too large contribution from technological innovation to reducing CO2 emissions in the short to medium term (van den Bergh, 2011b). This is partly due to the slow process of innovation, from invention to large-scale market application. The bulk of emission reductions over the medium term must instead come from changes in behaviour using existing technology, driven by price increases of fossil fuels. Nevertheless, after 2040 a large-scale transition to renewable energy is only possible through breakthroughs in technology research. Pricing of CO2 will stimulate both the necessarily medium-term behavioural change and innovation for a long-term shift in technological regime. But technology policy, such as a system of subsidies, is needed to avoid early dominance of currently cost-effective technical options, escape lock-in, and keep open technology paths characterized by a great potential for learning and cost reduction. Note that a policy package consisting of carbon pricing and technology-specific policies can also be seen to stimulate a synthesis of market-pull and technology-push effects.

Van den Bergh 11 – Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, and the Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Fellow of Tinbergen Institute and NAKE (Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, “Effective Climate-Energy Solutions, Escape Routes and Peak Oil” ICREA, Barcelona, Institute for Environmental Science and Technology and Department of Economics and Economic History, March 2011, http://icta.uab.cat.proxy.lib.umich.edu/99_recursos/1331896721815.pdf) MR

without technology-specific policy it will encourage the choice of currently cost-effective technological options, to the detriment of environmental technologies that perform better in the long term a large-scale transition to renewable energy is only possible through breakthroughs in technology research. technology policy is needed to avoid early dominance of currently cost-effective technical options, escape lock-in, and keep open technology paths characterized by a great potential for learning and cost reduction

Renewables tech is key

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

The combustion of fossil fuels is largely responsible for the problems of climate change, air pollution, and energy insecurity. A combination of wind, water, and solar power is the best alternative to fossil fuels, the authors write, because renewable energy sources have near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants, no long-term waste disposal problems, and no risks of catastrophic accidents. Compared with nuclear energy and biomass energy, the authors find that wind, water, and solar power, alone, would not only be advantageous but also feasible to meet 100 percent of the world’s energy needs. They explain how renewable energy systems can be designed and operated to ensure that power generation reliably matches demand; they calculate that these energy sources would cost less than fossil fuels when all costs to society are considered; and they recommend policies for easing the transition to energy systems based entirely on wind, water, and solar power. In May 2013, the average daily level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere passed 400 parts per million, an increase of more than 40 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and the highest level on Earth in several million years.1 That same month, scientists reported that Arctic sea ice, one of the most visible and important indicators of global climate change, was melting faster than most climate models have predicted, raising the possibility that the summer Arctic will be nearly ice-free by as early as 2020 (Overland and Wang, 2013). Around the world, air pollution in mega-cities routinely exceeds international air quality standards set to protect human health. Globally, the use of oil for transportation grows unabated, exposing the world economy to price and supply volatility, and exacerbating political and environmental problems in countries where oil is produced and consumed. These problems of climate change, air pollution, and energy insecurity are due primarily to the combustion of fossil fuels, mainly coal, oil, and natural gas. Although increased energy efficiency, improved emissions-control technology, and oil sharing and stockpiling agreements can mitigate some of the negative environmental and energy-security impacts of fossil-fuel use, these measures ultimately do little more than alleviate the pressure of increases in population and affluence. In order to avoid serious environmental and economic damages from energy use, humans must stop using fossil fuels altogether, as soon as possible. In the search for alternatives to fossil fuels, scientists and policy makers have focused their attention on three replacements that are widely believed to have lower emissions of greenhouse gases, the air pollutants responsible for climate change, than do fossil fuels: nuclear power; energy from biomass; and a combination of wind, water, and solar power. The third option, which includes wind turbines, photovoltaic power plants and rooftop systems, concentrated solar thermal power plants, small-scale hydroelectric plants, geothermal plants, tidal turbines, and wave energy converters, has several advantages over nuclear energy and bioenergy, including lower (near zero) emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, no problems of long-term waste disposal, and no risks of catastrophic accidents. Despite the natural variability of wind, water, and solar power, they can deliver energy as reliably as, and more economically than, the current fossil-fuel-based system when all costs to society are considered. Indeed, energy systems worldwide can be run entirely on wind, water, and solar power, making it unnecessary to pursue the less desirable alternatives of nuclear power and bioenergy. But there are a number of steps that are needed to begin such a transition.

Delucchi* and Jacobson** 13 – *research scientist at the Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis **professor of civil and environmental engineering and director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program at Stanford University, senior fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment and the Precourt Institute for Energy, both at Stanford (Mark A. Delucchi and Mark Z. Jacobson, “Meeting the world’s energy needs entirely with wind, water, and solar power” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2013, http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/20593576/374549886/name/Delucchi+(Bull.+Atom.+Sci.,+2013)+100%25+WWS+for+the+world.pdf) MR

combustion of fossil fuels is responsible for climate change, air pollution, and energy insecurity. A combination of wind, water, and solar is the best alternative to fossil fuels renewable energy sources have near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants, no long-term waste disposal problems, and no risks of catastrophic accidents wind, water, and solar power, alone, would be feasible to meet 100 percent of the world’s energy needs renewable energy systems ensure power generation matches demand these energy sources cost less than fossil fuels when all costs to society are considered In May 2013, the average daily level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere passed 400 parts per million, an increase of more than 40 percent since the industrial revolution and the highest level on Earth in several million years Arctic sea ice, one of the most visible and important indicators of global climate change, was melting faster than models predicted air pollution in mega-cities exceeds international air quality standards the use of oil for transportation grows unabated, exposing the world economy to price and supply volatility, and exacerbating political and environmental problems in countries where oil is produced and consumed. climate change, air pollution, and energy insecurity are due to the combustion of fossil fuels o avoid serious environmental and economic damages humans must stop using fossil fuels altogether, as soon as possible. scientists and policy makers focused on replacements wind turbines, photovoltaic power plants and rooftop systems, concentrated solar thermal power plants, small-scale hydroelectric plants, geothermal plants, tidal turbines, and wave energy converters, has several advantages including near zero emissions no problems of long-term waste disposal, and no risks of catastrophic accidents. they can deliver energy as reliably as, and more economically than, the current fossil-fuel-based system energy systems worldwide can be run entirely on wind, water, and solar steps are needed to begin such a transition

Fossil fuel dependence is dangerous – renewables are key to solve

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

This new energy future offers a pragmatic solution to climate change. Often assumed to be costly, reducing carbon emissions is actually profitable, since saving fuel costs less than buying fuel. Profits, jobs, and competitive advantage make for easier conversations than costs, burdens, and sacrifices, and they need no global treaties to drive them. In 2009, the consulting firm McKinsey & Company found that projected greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 70 percent by 2030 at a trivial average cost of $6 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent (the standard unit of global-warming impact). Including newer technologies and integrative designs could save even more carbon more cheaply, and thus could more than meet the United States’ obligations under the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change while saving $5 trillion. Getting the United States off fossil fuels would transform its foreign policy. A world where the United States and other countries buy no oil because its price and price volatility exceed its value would have less oil-fed tyranny, corruption, terrorism, tension, and war. Washington, no longer needing an oil-centric foreign policy, could maintain normal relations with oil-exporting countries and treat diplomatic issues on their merits. The Pentagon would be pleased, too. Today, every one of the U.S. military’s nine combatant commands must protect oil assets and transportation routes—fighting tanker-hijacking pirates oª the coast of Somalia or pipeline-attacking militants from Latin America to Central Asia. The U.S. Army would love Mission Unnecessary in the Persian Gulf; the U.S. Navy would no longer need to worry as much about conflicts from the Arctic to the South China Sea. Proliferators, meanwhile, could no longer hide their intent behind civilian nuclear power in a world that acknowledged its marketplace collapse and the superiority of nonnuclear competitors. Nor could they draw on civilian skills, materials, and equipment.

Lovins 12 – Chair and Chief Scientist of Rocky Mountain Institute and the senior author of Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era (Amory B. Lovins, “A Farewell to Fossil Fuels Answering the Energy Challenge” Foreign Affairs Volume 91 No. 2, March 2012, http://ef.amazonia.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/2012-01_FarewellToFossilFuels.pdf) MR

new energy future offers a pragmatic solution to climate change. reducing carbon emissions is profitable greenhouse gas emissions could be cut by 70 percent newer tech could save even more carbon more cheaply Getting the U S off fossil fuels would transform its foreign policy. A world where the U S and other countries buy no oil would have less oil-fed tyranny, corruption, terrorism, tension, and war. Washington, no longer needing an oil-centric foreign policy, could maintain normal relations with oil-exporting countries and treat diplomatic issues on their merits. The Pentagon would be pleased every one of the U.S. military’s nine combatant commands must protect oil assets and transportation routes The U.S. Army would love Mission Unnecessary in the Persian Gulf; the U.S. Navy would no longer need to worry about conflicts from the Arctic to the South China Sea. Proliferators could no longer hide their intent behind civilian nuclear power in a world that acknowledged its marketplace collapse and the superiority of competitors

Oil dependence is bad – renewables key to solve

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Phasing out fossil fuels would turbocharge global development, which is also in the United States’ interest. Energy inefficiency is one of the biggest causes of persistent poverty. Oil purchases underlie much of the developing world’s debt, and wasted energy diverts meager national and household budgets. Developing countries are on average one-third as energy efficient as rich ones, and the poor often spend far more of their disposable income on energy than does the general population. Some 1.6 billion people live without electricity, leaving many basic needs unmet, hobbling health and development, and trapping women and girls in uneducated penury. Investments in new electricity devour one-fourth of the world’s development capital. There is no stronger nor more neglected lever for global development than investing instead in making devices that save electricity. This would require about one-thousandth the capital and return it ten times as fast, freeing up vast sums for other development needs. If the United States, Europe, China, and India merely adopted highly efficient lights, air conditioners, refrigerators, and tvs, they could save $1 trillion and 300 coal plants. That is the goal of the Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment Initiative, an effort announced in 2009 and supported by 23 major countries. Developing countries, with their rural villages, burgeoning cities and slums, and dilapidated infrastructures, especially need renewable electricity, and they now buy the majority of the world’s new renewable capacity. Some remote villages are not waiting for the wires but leapfrogging the grid: more Kenyans are getting electricity first from solar-power entrepreneurs than from traditional utilities. Such efforts as the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lumina Project have helped bring efficient and affordable solar-powered led lights to millions across Africa. These projects improve education; free up kerosene budgets for mosquito nets, clean water, and other necessities; and could eventually prevent 1.5 million deaths from lung disease annually. Just by switching from kerosene lamps to fluorescent ones, one Indian village got 19 times as much light with one-ninth the energy and half the cost.

Lovins 12 – Chair and Chief Scientist of Rocky Mountain Institute and the senior author of Reinventing Fire: Bold Business Solutions for the New Energy Era (Amory B. Lovins, “A Farewell to Fossil Fuels Answering the Energy Challenge” Foreign Affairs Volume 91 No. 2, March 2012, http://ef.amazonia.org.br/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/2012-01_FarewellToFossilFuels.pdf) MR

Phasing out fossil fuels would turbocharge global development Energy inefficiency is one of the biggest causes of persistent poverty. Oil purchases underlie much of the developing world’s debt, and wasted energy diverts meager national and household budgets. Developing countries are one-third as energy efficient as rich ones the poor spend far more on energy than the general population 1.6 billion live without electricity, leaving many basic needs unmet, hobbling health and development, and trapping women and girls in uneducated penury. Investments in new electricity devour one-fourth of the world’s development capital Developing countries, with rural villages, burgeoning cities and slums, and dilapidated infrastructures, especially need renewable electricity, These projects improve education; free up kerosene budgets for mosquito nets, clean water, and other necessities; and could prevent 1.5 million deaths from lung disease annually

Phasing out fossil fuels is crucial for developing nations

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Rural electrification projects have been made central to each Central American country's development agenda, because governments understand that energy use, economic growth, and level of development are highly correlated. Traditional use of energy has an inherent gender bias, and electrification reduces labor time for women. Modern cooking appliances mean they no longer need to collect firewood and can spend less time cooking. Electricity use in rural homes is related to education levels, and because there is a relationship between education and lifetime earnings, use of energy that positively impacts education can be considered productive. Access to modern energy also has positive effects on health, reducing pulmonary illness by replacing traditional cooking methods with modern stoves, allowing refrigeration for rural clinics to store medicines and blood samples, and enabling rural clinics to utilize more modern technologies. Greater electrification is also necessary to attract businesses that are reliant on electricity to rural areas, which typically lag in investment.14 Governments have endeavored to expand electrical access to impoverished areas by attracting foreign donors to implement renewable energy projects, such as individual household or community-based solar, wind, or geothermal installations in rural areas. Governments under economic strain prefer these projects, because they require less financing than electrical grid extension. The utilization of renewable energy resources to electrify rural regions is not only cost-effective and environmentally sound; it empowers the community, particularly women. The most common applications of renewable energy for off-grid energy services are for cooking, lighting, and other small electrical processes in industry, water pumping, and heating and cooling. These access strategies are key for poverty alleviation, decreasing inequality, increasing electrical coverage, sustaining economic growth, and increasing human development.15

Johnson 12 – Research Associate, Global Energy Network Institute (Amanda Johnson “Achieving 100% Reliance on Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Central America” Global Energy Network Institute, August 2012, http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/research/renewable-energy-transmission-central-america/Central%20America%20Renewable%20Energy%20Resources.pdf) MR

Central American governments understand that energy use, economic growth, and level of development are highly correlated electrification reduces labor time for women. Modern cooking appliances mean they can spend less time cooking. Electricity use is related to education levels, and because there is a relationship between education and lifetime earnings, use of energy that positively impacts education can be considered productive. Access to modern energy has positive effects on health, reducing pulmonary illness allowing refrigeration to store medicines and blood samples, and enabling rural clinics to utilize more modern technologies. electrification attract businesses that are reliant on electricity to rural areas, which lag in investment. Governments expand electrical access to impoverished areas by renewable energy projects in rural areas. utilization of renewable energy resources to electrify rural regions is not only cost-effective and environmentally sound; it empowers the community, particularly women access strategies are key for poverty alleviation, decreasing inequality, increasing electrical coverage, sustaining economic growth, and increasing human development.

Access to energy is crucial to solve structural violence

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Energy policy plays a vital role in the mitigation of the impacts of global climate change. The adoption of renewable energy resources to supplant the use of fossil fuels effectively decreases greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Although Central America's contribution to greenhouse gas emissions is low, estimated to be only .8% of the total global emissions, the effects of climate change pose a serious threat to the region vis-à-vis more frequent and intense hurricanes and storms, flooding, erosion, less predictable rainfall...etc.16 The magnitude of these events is compounded by the fact that countries in this region lack the funds or the capacity to respond appropriately to these disasters. Increasingly, climate change will cause alterations in hydrological cycles that will impact agriculture, the region's most valuable economic sector, and pose a threat to human security as storms become more intense.17

Johnson 12 – Research Associate, Global Energy Network Institute (Amanda Johnson “Achieving 100% Reliance on Renewable Energy for Electricity Generation in Central America” Global Energy Network Institute, August 2012, http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/research/renewable-energy-transmission-central-america/Central%20America%20Renewable%20Energy%20Resources.pdf) MR

Energy policy plays a vital role in the mitigation of global climate change adoption of renewable energy resources decreases greenhouse gas emissions the effects of climate change pose a serious threat to the region vis-à-vis frequent and intense hurricanes and storms, flooding, erosion, less predictable rainfall The magnitude of these events is compounded by the fact that countries in this region lack the capacity to respond climate change will impact agriculture, the region's most valuable economic sector, and pose a threat to human security

Renewables are key to solve warming and energy poverty

Mexican Renewables Aff and Neg Updates - Michigan7 2013 ACHM.html5

Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Ethical traditions, both religious and secular, provide tools for thinking about difficult¶ issues in a complicated world. They are thus a vital element of effective and successful¶ decision-making processes. This is especially important for sustainability, which seeks to¶ integrate diverse and sometimes conflicting ethical and practical goals. Sustainable¶ decision-making involves a number of factors, many of which are discussed in detail in¶ the next chapter. In this chapter, we look at the distinctive contributions to that decisionmaking¶ process that might come from ethics as a philosophical subfield.¶ Ethics can help people identify the values that are most important to them and analyze¶ possible actions or outcomes in relation to these values. However, ethics is not simply¶ about applying pre-established rules to clear-cut situations. First of all, multiple values¶ are involved in many decisions, and certainly in those that aim toward sustainability.¶ Thus the choice is never just between good or evil but rather among various goods.¶ Further, the relationship among different goods is almost always complex. Rarely do¶ genuine goods stand in such stark opposition to each other that the choice is a simple one¶ between, for example, jobs or endangered species. Anyone who frames complicated¶ decisions in such dualistic terms is usually obscuring or ignoring important pieces of the¶ problem.¶ The issue of how to frame ethical problems in constructive and fruitful ways is vital but¶ underappreciated – it is especially relevant for problems of sustainability, where popular¶ discourse often defines problems as stark choices between economic or environmental¶ goods. In such situations, one of the most important tasks of ethics is asking questions¶ that help lead to good solutions. The philosopher Anthony Weston notes that “if we are¶ to find the best solutions to our ethical problems, we first need to find the best¶ problems.”6 Better framing of ethical issues makes it possible to avoid obstacles that¶ frequently prevent people from arriving at solutions that maximize diverse goods. One of¶ the most common obstacles, in both popular and scholarly ethics, is the tendency to¶ conceive of decisions as dilemmas with only two mutually exclusive and opposed¶ solutions. When people stop thinking in terms of dualistic choices, they may engage in¶ creative searches for alternative solutions that do not require the sacrifice of important¶ values. In searching for sustainability it may be possible both to preserve wildlife habitat¶ and to increase economic security for local residents, for example, by thinking creatively¶ about developing more sustainable kinds of jobs, adopting different farming methods, or¶ protecting land through innovate means such as wildlife corridors. Such expansive¶ solutions will not be possible, however, if decision makers understand economic and¶ environmental goods as mutually exclusive and thus see their moral choices as between¶ two diametrically opposed alternatives.

Kibert et al. 12 (Charles J. Kibert, Professor and Director of the Powell Center for Construction and Environment at the University of Florida and President of the Cross Creek Initiative; Leslie Thiele, Director of Sustainability Studies at the University of Florida; Anna Peterson, Department of Religion at the University of Florida, PhD from the University of Chicago Divinity School; Martha Monroe, Professor of Environmental Education and Extension, at the School of Forest Resources and Conservation of the University of Florida), The Ethics of Sustainability, http://www.cce.ufl.edu/current/ethics/Ethics%20of%20Sustainability%20Textbook.pdf) MR

ethics is not simply about applying pre-established rules to clear-cut situations multiple values are involved in many decisions that aim toward sustainability the choice is never just between good or evil but rather among various goods the relationship among different goods is complex Anyone who frames complicated decisions in such dualistic terms is obscuring important pieces of the problem The issue of how to frame ethical problems is vital especially for problems of sustainability, where popular discourse defines problems as stark choices between economic or environmental goods if we are to find the best solutions to our ethical problems, we first need to find the best problems One of the most common obstacles, is the tendency to conceive of decisions as dilemmas with only two mutually exclusive and opposed solutions. When people stop thinking in terms of dualistic choices, they engage in creative searches for alternative solutions that do not require the sacrifice of important values. In searching for sustainability it may be possible both to preserve wildlife habitat and increase economic security for residents expansive solutions will not be possible if decision makers understand economic and environmental goods as mutually exclusive and see their moral choices as between two diametrically opposed alternatives.

Establishing dualisms between proposed solutions is ineffective

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Michigan (7-week)

Affirmatives

2013

Another helpful category from environmental studies scholarship on consumption is¶ individualization, which refers to the tendency to think of social problems, including¶ environmental harm, as essentially individual in both their causes and potential solution¶ (Princen, Maniates, and Conca, 2002b: 15). Individualization means, in practical terms,¶ that people often believe that small scale actions – such as planting a tree or riding a bike¶ – can make enough difference to “save the world” (Maniates 2002: 43). When we¶ individualize responsibility for environmental problems, we ignore the ways that largescale¶ patterns and institutions, including economic systems and the nature and exercise of¶ political power affect individual consumption patterns (Maniates 2002: 45). We think that¶ the decision about, for example, whether or not to drive to work alone reflects only¶ private factors, such as personal preferences, family lifestyle, and economic¶ circumstances. Further analysis, however, quickly reveals that such decisions are also¶ heavily influenced by structural factors such as the availability of public transportation,¶ the safety and accessibility of pedestrian and bicycle routes, and the location of¶ businesses and other public and private facilities.¶ The failure to take seriously the larger social forces that shape purchasers’ decisions¶ often leads to wrong diagnoses of causes and ineffective efforts at solutions. We may¶ think that educating people about the consequences of a particular action is all that is¶ necessary to achieve lasting change. This is wrong for at least two reasons. First,¶ individual behavior is heavily shaped by social and institutional factors, including ease of¶ access, peer support and pressure, and the presence of good examples. Individual factors¶ such as the amount of information or education that a person receives, or even personal¶ values and convictions, do not by themselves motivate changed behavior (McKenzie-¶ Mohr and Smith 1999). When we individualize responsibility, in other words, we¶ misunderstand what motivates, facilitates, and sometimes obstructs practices.¶ Further, and perhaps more important, even when individual behavior does change, the¶ scale is not adequate to address the major environmental (or social or economic)¶ problems that we face. Thus in addition to changed individual behaviors, such as using¶ public transportation or eating locally, environmental and social problems require¶ changes in regional and national policies and institutions. Such changes might include¶ increased miles per gallon standards for cars, greater funding for public transportation,¶ and an end to the perverse subsidies that encourage environmentally damaging¶ agricultural production, among many others. This is not to say that individual behavioral¶ changes are not necessary and important – they are, as we will discuss at more length¶ later in this chapter. However, we cannot make our personal practices matter unless we¶ understand them in larger contexts.¶ Like distancing, individualization is a problem not only in relation to the environmental¶ impacts of consumption but also for sustainability more broadly. There are no purely¶ individual solutions to social problems such as racial and gender inequality or¶ homelessness, nor to economic problems, including the banking, housing, and¶ employment crises that appeared in 2008. While individual practices can contribute to¶ these problems or to their solutions, individuals as individuals can neither cause them nor¶ end them. This is true for all the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of¶ sustainability, which is a collective goal that can be achieved only by collective efforts.¶ Such efforts must include large-scale changes in public policy, infrastructure, land use,¶ and economic institutions, among other factors. If we think about these problems as¶ distant from us, or as merely personal issues, we fail to understand their causes and¶ potential solutions.¶ While we should not think about individual actions in isolation, individual and personal¶ practices are important and necessary in order to support institutional changes, in the¶ marketplace, in community and civic organizations, and in government from local to¶ national levels. They can also be valuable in a host of other, perhaps less tangible ways,¶ including setting examples, showing possibilities, and creating community. Again,¶ seeking sustainability is always a multi-faceted and challenging task. It involves thinking¶ about environmental, social, and economic issues. It requires thinking about different¶ geographic scales, from the local to the global. It entails thinking about individual¶ actions as well as their systemic and structural contexts. Perhaps most of all,¶ understanding and seeking sustainability demands that we think about the relations¶ among these various dimensions, scales, and levels.

Kibert et al. 12 (Charles J. Kibert, Professor and Director of the Powell Center for Construction and Environment at the University of Florida and President of the Cross Creek Initiative; Leslie Thiele, Director of Sustainability Studies at the University of Florida; Anna Peterson, Department of Religion at the University of Florida, PhD from the University of Chicago Divinity School; Martha Monroe, Professor of Environmental Education and Extension, at the School of Forest Resources and Conservation of the University of Florida), The Ethics of Sustainability, http://www.cce.ufl.edu/current/ethics/Ethics%20of%20Sustainability%20Textbook.pdf) MR

individualization refers to the tendency to think of environmental harm, as essentially individual in their causes and potential solution Individualization means people often believe that small scale actions make enough difference to “save the world” When we individualize responsibility for environmental problems, we ignore the ways that largescale patterns and institutions, including economic systems and political power affect individual consumption patterns decisions are heavily influenced by structural factors The failure to take seriously larger social forces that shape purchasers’ decisions often leads to wrong diagnoses of causes and ineffective efforts at solutions think that educating people about the consequences is all that is necessary to achieve change. This is wrong individual behavior is heavily shaped by social and institutional factors Individual factors such as personal values and convictions, do not by themselves motivate changed behavior When we individualize responsibility we misunderstand what motivates, facilitates, and obstructs practices even when individual behavior does change, the scale is not adequate to address the major environmental problems that we face in addition to changed individual behaviors environmental and social problems require changes in regional and national policies and institutions. This is not to say that individual behavioral changes are not necessary and important we cannot make our personal practices matter unless we understand them in larger contexts individualization is a problem for sustainability There are no purely individual solutions to social problems nor to economic problems While individual practices can contribute to these problems or to their solutions, individuals as individuals can neither cause them nor end them. This is true for all dimensions of sustainability, which is a collective goal that can be achieved only by collective efforts efforts must include large-scale changes in public policy, infrastructure, land use and economic institutions, among other factors. If we think about these problems as distant from us, or as merely personal issues, we fail to understand their causes and potential solutions individual and personal practices are important to support institutional changes seeking sustainability is always multi-faceted and challenging It requires thinking about different geographic scales, from the local to the global. It entails thinking about individual actions as well as their systemic and structural contexts understanding and seeking sustainability demands that we think about the relations among these various dimensions, scales, and levels.

Purely individual focuses can’t solve larger consumptive practices

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Affirmatives

2013

Why is green growth important? It is becoming widely recognized that a major global green transition will be needed to preserve long‐term growth in the global economy, while at the same time protecting the climate and the natural resources that are the foundation of future growth. If the progress in peoples’ living stan-­‐ dards is to be continued, we need to find new ways of producing and consuming. Continuing ‘business as usual’ is unsustainable and is imposing constraints on economic growth and future development (McKinsey, 2011; OECD, 2011). On average, we are consuming more than the earth can regenerate from materials. In 2007, the World’s population was consuming 1.5 Earths to support its consumption. We are thus gradually depleting our finite stock of natural capital (GFN, 2010; US EPA, 2009; McKinsey, 2009). The population of the World is predicted to reach 9 billion people in 2050. There are high economic growth rates in many parts of the World’s most populated areas leading to a growing middle class that will put an even higher and increasing pressure on natural resources. Over the last 10 years the prices on energy, metals and agricultural products have more than dou-­‐ bled and for some metals there has been a quadrupling in prices and prices have become increas-­‐ ingly volatile, cf. illustration 1. It is not given how prices on natural resources will develop in the long run. It is also difficult to fore-­‐ see how prices will develop over the coming years, but the growth in demand for natural resources is likely to continue, since the economic growth in Asia, South America and Africa, in particular, is predicted to continue. This will put an upward pressure on prices as well as making them more volatile. Companies which are able to respond to this challenge and which may offer solutions which mitigate the effects of the increasing resource scarcity will probably be better off than those who will continue with business as usual. This global ‘green transition’ presents an enormous economic opportunity as new product markets and new ways of doing business emerge. Markets for low carbon technologies will be worth at least US$ 500 billion by 2050 if the world acts on the scale required (US EPA, 2009; WWF, 2010). The global challenges of growth, resource scarcity, environmental and climate change become the key strategic drivers for business in the coming decade (WBCSD, 2010). This requires an increased focus on greener innovation, using fewer resources and creating less waste and pollution. Sustainable business innovations are already being developed and deployed across many sectors in response to the current and expected transformation of markets and societies. The global climate and environmental challenges are changing the agenda for businesses and policy makers who are shifting their thinking of climate change and resource constraints as environmental problems to seeing them as economic potentials and opportunities (WBCSD, 2010). More and more companies are acknowledging that greater resource productivity, ecoefficiency, and providing new greener products and services can give them a competitive advantage in the market.

Henriksen et al. 12 (Kristian Henriksen, Ministry of Business and Growth special advisor and project owner; Markus Bjerre, Ministry of Business and Growth head of section; Alexandra Maria Almasi, Danish Business Authority Research Assistant; Emil Damgaard-Grann, Danish Business Authority Research Assistant, “Green Business Model Innovation: Conceptualization Report” The Danish Business Authority, VINNOVA, TEKES, Innovation Norway and Innovation Centre Iceland, October 2012, http://www.tekes.fi/fi/gateway/PTARGS_0_201_403_994_2095_43/http%3b/tekes-ali2%3b7087/publishedcontent/publish/programmes/kestavatalous/documents/lisaa_aiheesta/green_business_model_innovation_reports/conceptualization_report_final.pdf) MR

a major global green transition will be needed to preserve long‐term growth in the global economy, while protecting the climate and natural resources we need to find new ways of producing and consuming ‘business as usual’ is unsustainable and imposing constraints on growth and development we are consuming more than the earth can regenerate thus depleting our finite stock of natural capital high economic growth rates in populated areas lead to a growing middle class that put an even higher pressure on natural resources growth in demand for natural resources is likely to continue This will put an upward pressure on prices as well as making them more volatile global ‘green transition’ presents an enormous economic opportunity as new product markets emerge global challenges of growth, resource scarcity, environmental and climate change become the key strategic drivers for business in the coming decade This requires focus on greener innovation More and more companies are acknowledging that greater resource productivity, ecoefficiency, and providing new greener products and services can give them a competitive advantage

A green transition is possible and crucial for sustainable growth

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Affirmatives

2013

¶ JERUSALEM — U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry extended his trip to Israel a day amid speculation that he was closing in on a deal to revive the dormant Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.¶ ¶ Reports in the Israeli news media have suggested that a meeting between Israeli and Palestinian officials under American and Jordanian auspices might be announced soon. There has been no comment from U.S. officials, however.¶ ¶ Kerry’s decision to rip up his itinerary and stay in Israel has heightened expectations of a potential breakthrough.¶ ¶ After canceling a Saturday news conference in Jordan and a planned trip later that day to the United Arab Emirates, Kerry flew by helicopter to Amman, Jordan, for a two-hour meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, and his senior advisers, including the Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat.¶ ¶ Asked whether he was making progress as the meeting got under way, Kerry replied, “working hard.”¶ ¶ Kerry then headed back to Israel for an evening meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, his third such meeting in three days. Tzipi Livni, Israel’s minister of justice and the government’s chief negotiator on the Palestinian issue, and Isaac Molho, Netanyahu’s special envoy, were to attend the meeting as well, according to a State Department official.¶ ¶ Kerry is scheduled to fly Sunday to Brunei for a meeting of foreign ministers, and his departure has become an unofficial deadline for showing results.¶ ¶ Kerry has frequently said that time is the enemy, arguing that attitudes harden over time and that unexpected developments can complicate painstaking efforts to lay the basis for progress at the negotiating table.¶ ¶ “Time is the enemy of a peace process,” he said Wednesday during a visit to Kuwait. “The passage of time allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen.”¶ ¶ On Friday night, Kerry had a Sabbath dinner with Shimon Peres, the Israeli president who won the Nobel Prize in 1994 for his efforts in producing the Oslo Accord and who has been a vocal and enthusiastic supporter of Kerry’s push to revive the

Gordon 6-29 (Michael R., New York Times reporter, June 29, 2013, "Kerry extends Israel trip amid speculation on peace talks" New York Times) http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/06/29/kerry-extends-israel-trip-amid-speculation-peace-talks/WhI1jxBpkgzHTux3RMvCQM/story.html

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry extended his trip to Israel a day amid speculation that he was closing in on a deal to revive the dormant Israeli-Palestinian peace talks a meeting between Israeli and Palestinian officials under American and Jordanian auspices might be announced soon Kerry’s decision to rip up his itinerary and stay in Israel has heightened expectations of a potential breakthrough Kerry flew for a two-hour meeting with Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat.¶ ¶ Asked whether he was making progress as the meeting got under way, Kerry replied, “working hard.” Kerry headed back to Israel for an evening meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, his third such meeting in three days Kerry is scheduled to fly Sunday to Brunei for a meeting of foreign ministers his departure has become an unofficial deadline for showing results Kerry has frequently said that time is the enemy, arguing that attitudes harden over time and that unexpected developments can complicate painstaking efforts to lay the basis for progress at the negotiating table “Time is the enemy of a peace process,” he said “The passage of time allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen.”

A. Kerry is making substantial progress in the Israeli-Palestine peace talks—he is devoting all of his time and effort to closing the deal

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Israel has had to live with what I shall call conventional terrorism since the early years of the Zionist enterprise in Palestine in the 1920s. Terrible as it has been, this kind of terrorism in no way threatens Israeli national security, as distinct from the personal security of the Israeli victims. Despite the carnage of the fundamentalist suicide bombings of 1994-1996, the odds of any individual Israeli becoming the victim of terrorism--as opposed, say, to dying in Arab-Israeli wars or even in traffic accidents--have been minute. This is not to minimize the horrors of terrorism, but rather to place them in perspective. But in any case, the crucial point is that the establishment of a Palestinian state would greatly reduce the incentive for continued terrorism, most of which has been intended to force Israel out of the occupied territories. To be sure, the purpose of the fundamentalist terrorism since 1993 goes beyond that, for it has been designed to destroy the peace process and ultimately Israel itself. Faced with that kind of murderous fanaticism, Israel and its new-found allies in the PLO have no choice but to crush it. Following the suicide bombings of March 1996, the Palestinian Authority decided to closely cooperate with Israeli security forces to end the terrorism. The absence of any suicide bombings in the next year--until the Arafat-Netanyahu break in March 1997, following the Israeli government's decision to build new Jewish housing in East Jerusalem--demonstrates the crucial importance of such joint efforts. A breakdown of the peace process is likely both to increase the support for the fundamentalists within overall Palestinian opinion and diminish the incentives of the Palestinian Authority to control them.

Jerome Slater, professor of political science at SUNY at Buffalo, Winter 1998 (Political Science Quarterly "Netanyahu, a Palestinian state, and Israeli security reassessed" Vol. 112, Issue 4 ebsco)

Israel has had to live with terrorism since the 1920s. the establishment of a Palestinian state would greatly reduce the incentive for continued terrorism most of which has been intended to force Israel out of the occupied territories , the purpose of terrorism has been designed to destroy the peace process and ultimately Israel itself A breakdown of the peace process is likely both to increase the support for the fundamentalists within overall Palestinian opinion and diminish the incentives of the Palestinian Authority to control them

D. Failure of the Peace Process causes terrorism

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Although terrorism throughout human history has been tragic, until relatively recently it has been more of an irritant than any major hazard. However, the existence of weapons of mass destruction now renders terrorism a potential threat to the very existence of human life (Hoge & Rose, 2001). Such potential global destruction, or globicide as one might call it, supersedes even that of genocide in its lethality. Although religious factors are not the only determinant of ‘suicide’ bombers, the revival of religious fundamentalism towards the end of the 20th century renders the phenomenon a major global threat. Even though religion can be a force for good, it can equally be abused as a force for evil. Ultimately, the parallel traits in human nature of good and evil may perhaps be the most durable of all the characteristics of the human species. There is no need to apply a psychiatric analysis to the ‘suicide’ bomber because the phenomenon can be explained in political terms. Most participants in terrorism are not usually mentally disordered and their behaviour can be construed more in terms of group dynamics (Colvard, 2002). On the other hand, perhaps psychiatric terminology is as yet deficient in not having the depth to encompass the emotions and behaviour of groups of people whose levels of hate, low self-esteem, humiliation and alienation are such that it is felt that they can be remedied by the mass destruction of life, including their own.

Harvey Gordon, Visiting Lecturer, Forensic Psychiatry, Tel Aviv University, Psychiatric Bulletin, v. 26, 2002, p. 285-287, online: http://pb.rcpsych.org/cgi/content/full/26/8/285.

the existence of weapons of mass destruction now renders terrorism a potential threat to the very existence of human life Such potential global destruction, or globicide supersedes even that of genocide in its lethality the revival of religious fundamentalism towards the end of the 20th century renders the phenomenon a major global threat psychiatric terminology is as yet deficient in not having the depth to encompass the emotions and behaviour of groups of people whose levels of hate, low self-esteem, humiliation and alienation are such that it is felt that they can be remedied by the mass destruction of life

E. Unchecked terrorism means extinction

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Although the president has been reluctant to invest political diplomatic capital in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, Kerry is pushing for a new US-backed initiative and Americans officials say that he has been promised limited presidential backing. "The Palestian issue is a second-term presidential issue," Zakheim said. "Quite frankly, you have a president who doesn't have to run for office again and an Israeli prime minister who is not as strong as he was before. That gives the president a lot of leverage. If Obama does succumb to the temptation of a second-term president, the constellation of forces is quite good."

Borger 13 (Julian, staff writer, 3-18-13, “Israel to ask Obama to use air strikes in case of Syrian missile transfer” The Guardian) http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/17/obama-visit-israel-syrian-missiles-transfer

Although the president has been reluctant to invest diplomatic capital in Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, Kerry is pushing for a new US-backed initiative and Americans officials say that he has been promised presidential backing. "The Palestian issue is a second-term presidential issue," Zakheim said you have a president who doesn't have to run for office again and an Israeli prime minister who is not as strong as he was before. That gives the president a lot of leverage. the constellation of forces is quite good."

Kerry is making substantial progress in the peace process now—he’s currently in Israel negotiating the deal, and a breakthrough is close—that’s Gordon. Prefer our evidence because it’s the most recent—it’s only a few days old.

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U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said some progress toward reviving Middle East peace talks needs to be made “long before September,” when the next session of the United Nations General Assembly will begin.? While Kerry said he will set no deadlines for kick-starting a new round of negotiations, he warned yesterday at an appearance with his Kuwaiti counterpart that time “allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen,” and unforeseen dangers can arise.? Kerry was greeted by such a development yesterday, when Israel approved plans for 69 new housing units in a section ofJerusalem that Israel captured from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East War and Palestinians consider occupied territory. A municipal building committee approved the permits, city spokeswoman Brachie Sprung said by telephone.? Israel continues to build in settlements in the West Bank and east Jerusalem, which the U.S. State Department has called “unproductive.” The latest move to add housing is unhelpful as the U.S. urges all parties to help create a climate for peace, a department official said yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity in advance of Kerry’s meetings.? The Palestinians have refused to return to talks without a freeze in settlement construction, and they have signaled they might resume their quest at the UN to join the International Criminal Court.? ‘Something Important’? Now Kerry is in Amman, Jordan, for three days of consultations with Israeli and Palestinian leaders aimed at bringing them to the table for the first time in almost three years.? Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said in an interview with Al Jazeera television yesterday that he hopes Kerry brings “something important” and new that will help narrow the gaps with Israel and lead to fresh talks. Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu said this week that he’ll engage in peace negotiations if Palestinians indicate they’re willing to address all substantial issues and resolve the conflict.? Netanyahu is willing to withdraw from more than 90 percent of the West Bank if his security concerns are met, Ha’aretz newspaper said today, citing an unidentified Israeli minister. The prime minister has said any Palestinian state must be demilitarized, and Israel needs to maintain a security presence on the border between the West Bank and Jordan.? “Peace is based on security,” Netanyahu said today at a ceremony in Jerusalem. “It is not based on goodwill and legitimacy,” he said, in remarks broadcast on Army Radio.? UN Status? Progress is urgent “because time is the enemy of a peace process,” Kerry said yesterday in Kuwait City, alongside Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah. The passage of time, Kerry said, “has the ability to wear out people’s patience and to feed cynicism and to give people a sense of impossibility where there in fact is possibility.”? The timing of the UN General Assembly in September is significant because last year it recognized the Palestinians as an “observer state,” and they have threatened to use UN organizations such as the ICC to level war-crimes charges against Israel.? Kerry has thrown himself into reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, making his fifth trip to Israel since he became the top U.S. diplomat in February. He’s pushing for renewed talks even amid a crush of competing demands in the Middle East, including Syria’s civil war, violence in Iraq and Libya, tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, and worries about the stability of Egypt and Jordan.? Raising Stakes? Kerry has repeatedly said that time is running out to reach a two-state solution that would ensure security for Israel and an independent Palestine. The Palestinians want to establish a state in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem as well as the Gaza Strip, currently ruled by Palestinian militant group Hamas.? “If we do not succeed now, and I know I’m raising the stakes, we may not get another chance,” Kerry said on June 3 to the American Jewish Committee, a Washington advocacy group.? Israelis and Palestinians have shown no signs of being any closer to resuming talks, with each side blaming the other for the impasse, and the Palestinian leadership has been in disarray. Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah submitted his resignation June 20, two weeks after taking office.? No ‘Ownership’? An agreement with the Palestinians is possible and Israel should do more to strengthen them as peace partners, outgoing Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said today on Army Radio. Fischer steps down from the bank on June 30.? The danger of starting U.S.-brokered peace talks now is that there’s been no sense of “ownership” of the process from the Israelis and Palestinians, said Aaron David Miller, a former adviser to Republican and Democratic U.S. secretaries of state and now a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington.? “The real problem here is the absence of ownership,” Miller said in an interview last week. “I don’t see how Kerry can get around that.”? Kerry said he’s committed to trying because both Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas have shown a “seriousness of purpose” in wanting a peace deal.? “I wouldn’t be here now if I didn’t have a belief that this is possible,” Kerry said. “But it’s difficult. If this were easy, it would have been done a long time ago.”? Kerry denied an Israeli news report that he was preparing for three-way talks between U.S., Israeli and Palestinian officials this week under the auspices of Jordan’s King Abdullah. He plans to meet separately with Abbas in Amman and with Netanyahu in Jerusalem.?

Lerman &  Ferziger, 2013(David and Jonathan, David and Jonathan are reporters for Bloomberg News, Jun 27, 2013, “Kerry Warns Time Is Short to Revive Mideast Peace Talks”, Bloomberg News) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-26/kerry-warns-time-running-short-to-restart-mideast-peace-talks.html

John Kerry said some progress toward reviving Middle East peace talks needs to be made “long before September,” when the next session of the United Nations General Assembly will begin. While Kerry said he will set no deadlines for kick-starting a new round of negotiations, he warned yesterday at an appearance with his Kuwaiti counterpart that time “allows a vacuum to be filled by people who don’t want things to happen,” and unforeseen dangers can arise.? Progress is urgent “because time is the enemy of a peace process,” Kerry said yesterday in Kuwait City, alongside Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah. The passage of time, Kerry said, “has the ability to wear out people’s patience and to feed cynicism and to give people a sense of impossibility where there in fact is possibility.”? The timing of the UN General Assembly in September is significant because last year it recognized the Palestinians as an “observer state,” and they have threatened to use UN organizations such as the ICC to level war-crimes charges against Israel.? Kerry has thrown himself into reviving Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations, making his fifth trip to Israel since he became the top U.S. diplomat in February. He’s pushing for renewed talks even amid a crush of competing demands in the Middle East, including Syria’s civil war, violence in Iraq and Libya, tensions over Iran’s nuclear program, and worries about the stability of Egypt and Jordan Kerry has repeatedly said that time is running out to reach a two-state solution that would ensure security for Israel and an independent Palestine. “If we do not succeed now, and I know I’m raising the stakes, we may not get another chance,” Kerry said on June 3 to the American Jewish Committee, a Washington advocacy group.? An agreement with the Palestinians is possible and Israel should do more to strengthen them as peace partners, outgoing Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said today on Army Radio. Fischer steps down from the bank on June 30.? The danger of starting U.S.-brokered peace talks now is that there’s been no sense of “ownership” of the process from the Israelis and Palestinians, said Aaron David Miller, a former adviser to Republican and Democratic U.S. secretaries of state and now a vice president at the Woodrow Wilson Center for Scholars in Washington.?

Kerry Warns Time Is Short to Revive Mideast Peace Talks

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Yet Mr. Kerry dedicated himself this week to spending the next couple of months focusing intensively on . . . the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process,” which not only has proved resistant to the diplomacy of President Obama and numberless previous secretaries of state, but also is not, for now, the source of any of the fires raging across the region. What gives? Mr. Kerry seems to have a number of reasons for investing scarce time and diplomatic capital in this perpetually failing venture. Some are unpersuasive: He says “time is running out” for a two-state solution, but diplomats and regional experts have been delivering that warning for at least 25 years. One is personal: A veteran of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr. Kerry has developed a passion for the issue and seems to believe he can avoid the mistakes made by Mr. Obama, whose attempt to force a settlement freeze on Israel led to a rancorous three-way impasse between him, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

Washington Post 13 (Editorial Board, 4-12-13, “John Kerry’s efforts in Middle East could lay groundwork for success”) http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-04-12/opinions/38492300_1_netanyahu-mr-settlement-freeze

Kerry dedicated himself this week to spending the next couple of months focusing intensively on the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process,” Kerry seems to have a number of reasons for investing scarce time and diplomatic capital in this venture. A veteran of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr. Kerry has developed a passion for the issue and seems to believe he can avoid the mistakes made by Mr. Obama

Kerry is committed to investing diplomatic capital in the peace process

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In many ways the new Secretary of State has an even more immense task than his immediate predecessor, Ms. Clinton. Ms. Clinton’s objectives were defined clearly in President Obama’s first term: she had to revitalise America’s image on the world stage, repair broken alliances, and give credence to America’s “soft power.” Now that Ms. Clinton has significantly improved America’s diplomatic capital, it is up to John Kerry to use that capital and influence the global order.

Hazelgrove 13 (Sam, University Think Tank on International Affairs, 2-20-13, “The Senate confirms John Kerry as the new Secretary of State” Future Foreign Policy) http://blog.futureforeignpolicy.com/2013/02/20/the-senate-confirms-john-kerry-as-the-new-secretary-of-state/

the new Secretary of State has an even more immense task than his immediate predecessor, Ms. Clinton. Clinton’s objectives were defined clearly in Obama’s first term: she had to revitalise America’s image on the world stage, repair broken alliances, and give credence to America’s “soft power.” Now that Ms. Clinton has significantly improved America’s diplomatic capital, it is up to Kerry to use that capital and influence the global order.

Diplomatic capital is high—Clinton repaired the US image on the world stage

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HAVANA, Cuba — At the last Summit of the Americas, held in Colombia in April, Washington’s rivals in Latin America and its political allies had the same piece of advice for better US diplomacy in the region: get over your Cuba fixation. Now, with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) likely to be confirmed as the next secretary of state, the United States will have a top diplomat who has been a frequent critic of America’s 50-year-old effort to force regime change in Havana. In recent years, Kerry has been the Senate’s most prominent skeptic of US-funded pro-democracy efforts that give financial backing to dissident groups in Cuba and beam anti-Castro programming to the island through radio and television programs based in Miami. Kerry has also favored lifting curbs on US travel to the island, and opening up American tourism to the only country in the world the US government restricts its own citizens from visiting. For the rest of Latin America, where leaders say they're eager for Washington to modernize its view of the region and engage in new ways, Cuba remains “a litmus test” for the Obama presidency, according to Julia Sweig, director of Latin American Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The strategic benefits of getting Cuba right would reverberate throughout the Americas,” said Sweig, calling Kerry “ideally suited to the task.” “Kerry's instincts and experience in Latin America are to see past lingering and often toxic ideology in the US Congress and bureaucracy in favor of pragmatism and problem solving,” she said. Regardless of Kerry’s record on Cuba policy in the Senate, analysts say he will face several obstacles to major change, not least of which will be the man likely to replace him as chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey), a Cuban American. If Menendez becomes chairman, then the committee responsible for shaping US foreign policy in the upper house will be led by a hardliner who wants to ratchet up — not dial back — the US squeeze on Havana. So while Kerry may have some latitude to adjust Cuba policy from inside the White House, Latin America experts don’t expect sweeping change — like an end to the Cuba Embargo — which requires Congressional action. “On Latin America, in general, I think Kerry has a longer and broader vision,” said Robert Pastor, professor of international relations at American University. But when it comes to Cuba, he cautioned, “Kerry is also a political realist.” “Changing US policy is not a high priority for him, but not changing US policy is the only priority for Bob Menendez,” Pastor said. In 2011, Kerry delayed the release of nearly $20 million in federal funds for pro-democracy Cuba projects run by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), questioning their effectiveness and insisting on greater oversight. “There is no evidence that the ‘democracy promotion’ programs, which have cost the US taxpayer more than $150 million so far, are helping the Cuban people,” Kerry said at the time. “Nor have they achieved much more than provoking the Cuban government to arrest a US government contractor.” The US government contractor is Alan Gross, jailed on the island since December 2009. Cuban authorities arrested Gross while he worked on a USAID project to set up satellite communications gear that would allow members of Cuba’s Jewish community to connect to the internet without going through government servers. Cuba sentenced him to 15 years in prison, but now says its willing to work out a prisoner swap for the “Cuban Five,” a group of intelligence agents who have been serving time in a US federal prison. The Obama administration has refused to negotiate, calling on Havana to release Gross unconditionally, and even US lawmakers who advocate greater engagement with Cuba say no change will be possible as long as he’s in jail. The Castro government insists it’s not willing to give up Gross for nothing. Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat and scholar of US-Cuba relations at the University of Havana, said a resolution to the Gross case and other significant changes in US policy would “require a big investment of political capital” by Kerry and Obama.

Miroff 13 (Nick, 1-2-13, “Can Kerry make friends with Cuba?” Global Post) http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/cuba/121231/kerry-cuba-secretary-of-state-obama

with Kerry as the next secretary of state, the U S will have a top diplomat who has been a frequent critic of America’s 50-year-old effort to force regime change in Havana. Kerry has favored lifting curbs on US travel to the island getting Cuba right would reverberate said Sweig, calling Kerry “ideally suited to the task.” Regardless of Kerry’s record on Cuba policy in the Senate, analysts say he will face several obstacles to major change, not least of which will be Menendez while Kerry may have some latitude to adjust Cuba policy experts don’t expect sweeping change — like an end to the Cuba Embargo when it comes to Cuba Kerry is a political realist.” “Changing US policy is not a high priority for him Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat and scholar of US-Cuba relations said a resolution to the Gross case and other significant changes in US policy would “require a big investment of political capital” by Kerry

Changing Cuba policy would sap Kerry’s capital

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Admittedly, Kerry has not always applied these lessons properly -- witness his regrettable support for the Bush administration's disastrous invasion of Iraq. But elsewhere, as in his efforts to ease the archaic U.S. blockade on Cuba, Kerry continues to promote engagement as the fundamental tool of foreign policy. In a 2009 Tampa Bay Times op-ed, for example, Kerry relates how the success of the U.S. rapprochement with Vietnam helped shape his advocacy for improved relations with Cuba, which he presented as a defense of U.S. interests and democratic values. "For 47 years," he wrote, "our embargo in the name of democracy has produced no democracy at all. Too often, our rhetoric and policies have actually furnished the Castro regime with an all-purpose excuse to draw attention away from its many shortcomings." This evidence has informed the future secretary of state's position against the ban on travel to Cuba for U.S. citizens. Based on the experience of tourists from other countries and the return of Cuban-Americans who "have already had a significant impact on increasing the flow of information and hard currency to ordinary Cubans," Kerry understands that unrestricted U.S. travel to Cuba would be "a catalyst for change." The senator also placed a temporary freeze in 2010 on the poorly designed USAID Cuba programs, which have led to the imprisonment of Alan Gross, an agency subcontractor. According to an article by R.M. Schneiderman in Foreign Affairs, the revision of the Bush administration-designed USAID programs advanced the possibility of Alan Gross's release as a Cuban humanitarian act. Senator Kerry participated in a effort to negotiate a diplomatic solution. With State Department's approval, Kerry met Bruno Rodriguez, Cuba's ministry of foreign affairs at the residence of the Cuban Ambassador to the United Nations in New York. Unfortunately Senator Robert Menendez , a Cuban-American, stepped in and spoiled the possibility of a negotiated solution. The senator from New Jersey demanded that the full 20 million dollars be spent and the provocative programs be restored. Under the pressure of a delicate balance of forces in the Senate, The White House conceded. Schneiderman quoted Fulton Armstrong, a member of Senator Kerry's staff who was involved in the dialogue with Cuban diplomats. "Poor Alan Gross -- Armstrong wrote -- the Cuban-American lobby had won." Kerry, who has visited Vietnam post-reconciliation, knows that a USAID program there helped to multiply Internet connectivity rates in the country. The USAID program in Vietnam is jointly implemented with the Japanese development agency and with the support of the local government, unlike the Helms-Burton law, which geared USAID programs in Cuba toward regime change and was repudiated in the UN for its unilateralism. The USAID program in Vietnam encourages development, which is what USAID was created for, not efforts to overthrow Hanoi's government. The premise is that a population more affluent, better educated, and more connected will demand more democratic practices. According to Kerry, the United States will never stop supporting human rights in Cuba, simply because they are fundamental values of American society. After all, the United States has continued pushing for civil and political liberties in Vietnam since ending its embargo. Washington does so not because it opposes Hanoi's leaders or to impose a regime change, but as part of a rational strategy of promoting a peaceful evolution to a more open Vietnamese political system. Washington wants stable relationships with the whole Vietnamese nation, not only with the government. Peoples of the world, no matter how suspicious of U.S. motives they may be, appreciate human rights promotion within the framework of international law. President Obama's designation of John Kerry is also consistent with the political changes that have occurred in the Cuban-American community, expressed by the elevated Cuban diaspora vote for Democrats in the last election. Like Kerry, and as then-Senate candidate Obama stated in 2004, most Cuban-Americans believe that the embargo has failed and that it is time to influence the processes of economic reform and political liberalization that began in Cuba after the retirement of Fidel Castro. Once public opinion turned against the war in Vietnam, the political leadership in the U.S. found it had no choice but to follow suit. Kerry is better positioned than anyone to be a leader and see that point of departure when it comes to U.S. policy and Cuba.

Levy 13 (Arturo, Lecturer and Doctoral Candidate, University of Denver, 4-19-13, “Kerry’s Cuba Sanity” Huffington Post) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arturo-lopez-levy/kerrys-cuba-sanity_b_3112491.html

in his efforts to ease the .S. blockade on Cuba, Kerry continues to promote engagement as the fundamental tool of foreign policy. the revision of the Bush administration-designed USAID programs advanced the possibility of Alan Gross's release as a Cuban humanitarian act. Senator Kerry participated in a effort to negotiate a diplomatic solution. Obama's designation of John Kerry is also consistent with the political changes that have occurred in the Cuban-American community Like Kerry Cuban-Americans believe that the embargo has failed Once public opinion turned against the war in Vietnam, the political leadership in the U.S. found it had no choice but to follow suit. Kerry is better positioned than anyone to be a leader and see that point of departure when it comes to U.S. policy and Cuba.

Kerry will get involved in the plan—he’s the best candidate to repair Cuba relations

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The Washington Post writes a tough editorial about President-elect Obama’s Latin America agenda. While President Bush faced many democratic-leaning countries when he entered office, Obama faces more anti-American-leaning ones, and not just Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The editorial also says Mexico may be Obama’s more pressing Latin American issue. Mexican President Felix Calderon’s war against drug cartels “threaten to destroy Mexico’s relatively fragile institutions. “By the president’s own account, some 6,000 persons were killed in drug-related violence during 2008, a level of bloodshed exceeding that of Iraq. The Bush administration initiated a $1.4 billion aid program to help Mexican security forces, and Congress has appropriated the first $400 million. But little has been done to stop the massive flow of weapons — not just guns but grenade launchers, night vision equipment and high explosives — from the United States.” In April, President Obama will attend a summit of the Americas, as good as any opportunity to address those issues, the Post editorial says. Unlike Bush, the new president “has an objective and urgent interest in investing some of his diplomatic capital in Latin America.”

Ayala 09 (Elaine, president of the San Antonio Association of Hispanic Journalists, 1-19-09, “Obama will have to ‘invest’ diplomatically in Latin America” My San Antonio) http://blog.mysanantonio.com/latinlife/2009/01/obama-will-have-to-invest-diplomatically-in-latin-america/

While Bush faced democratic-leaning countries Obama faces more anti-American-leaning ones, and not just Venezuela Mexico may be Obama’s pressing Latin American issue drug cartels “threaten to destroy Mexico’s fragile institutions. the president “has an interest in investing his diplomatic capital in Latin America.”

Engaging with Mexico requires diplomatic capital

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On June 5, Secretary of State John Kerry raised eyebrows when he met with his Venezuelan counterpart, Foreign Minister Elías Jaua. Both were in Guatemala to attend the recent General Assembly of the Organization of American States (OAS). The pair’s meeting was the first high-level public meeting between the two countries since U.S. president Barack Obama and former Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez shook hands and had a brief exchange at the fifth Summit of the Americas in 2009. The Venezuelan government requested the meeting, which lasted 40 minutes and was followed by the announcement that the governments would embark on high-level talks aimed at improving bilateral relations. Of particular note, both sides expressed hope that the reciprocal appointment of ambassadors would take place in short order; Chávez expelled the U.S. ambassador in 2008 and the United States retaliated in kind. All of this is complicated by the outcome of the Venezuelan presidential election on April 14. The official results have named Nicolás Maduro the winner, having beaten opposition leader Henrique Capriles by a slim 1.5 percentage points—though the opposition continues to contest both the results and the audit. While much of the region moved quickly to recognize Maduro as the victor, the United States has yet to formally recognize the outcome and is waiting for the results of an audit that is satisfactory to all parties. So, given these developments, should the United States be resetting its relationship with Venezuela? Q1: Where do U.S.-Venezuelan relations stand? A1: Despite many fits and starts to advance relations in recent years, genuine improvements in the relationship have been hard to come by. Various U.S. government agencies hold sanctions against elements of the Venezuelan government, including on state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) for trading with Iran; on a former Iran-Venezuela Bank (IVB) for handling money transfers with a Chinese bank on behalf of the Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI); and on the state-owned Venezuelan Military Industry Company after it traded with Iran, North Korea, and Syria. The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), over the past five years, has also designated more than half a dozen Venezuelan government officials for acting for, or on behalf of, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), designated a narco-terrorist organization by the U.S. agency. And, let’s not forget that the reason there are no ambassadors in Caracas or D.C. was Chávez’s refusal in 2010 to accept Obama’s nominee for the post in Venezuela. Similarly, Venezuela severed ties with the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2005. On the day Chávez’s death was announced, Maduro, as caretaker, expelled two U.S. air force attachés based in the Caracas embassy, accusing them of espionage. The United States retaliated in kind. The Maduro government also arrested U.S. filmmaker Tim Tracy for allegedly instigating postelection violence, though many pointed out he was simply in Venezuela to film a documentary on politics in the country. (Tracy was released without further explanation the same morning Kerry and Jaua met.) Suggestions by members of the Venezuelan government that the United States may have given Chávez the cancer that caused his death have certainly not helped relations either, neither have repeated accusations targeted at former officials and U.S. military and intelligence involvement in countless evidence-free plots. Given the complex reality of the bilateral relationship, it looks like both sides have a long road ahead of them if they seek to enact positive changes.

Meacham 13 (Carl, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6-21-13, "The Kerry-Jaua Meeting: Resetting U.S.-Venezuela Relations?" csis.org/publication/kerry-jaua-meeting-resetting-us-venezuela-relations

Kerry raised eyebrows when he met with his Venezuelan counterpart, Foreign Minister Elías Jaua. both sides expressed hope that the reciprocal appointment of ambassadors would take place in short order Despite many fits and starts to advance relations in recent years, genuine improvements in the relationship have been hard to come by. Various U.S. government agencies hold sanctions against elements of the Venezuelan government, And, let’s not forget that the reason there are no ambassadors in Caracas or D.C. was Chávez’s refusal in 2010 to accept Obama’s nominee for the post in Venezuela. Similarly, Venezuela severed ties with the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) in 2005. On the day Chávez’s death was announced, Maduro, as caretaker, expelled two U.S. air force attachés based in the Caracas embassy, accusing them of espionage. The United States retaliated in kind. Suggestions by members of the Venezuelan government that the United States may have given Chávez the cancer that caused his death have certainly not helped relations either, neither have repeated accusations targeted at former officials and U.S. military and intelligence involvement in countless evidence-free plots. Given the complex reality of the bilateral relationship, it looks like both sides have a long road ahead of them if they seek to enact positive changes.

Restoring ties with Venezuela will require significant time and effort by Kerry

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But beyond early assessments of whether Mr Kerry is up to the job, we must acknowledge that success as secretary of state depends increasingly these days on the ability of a skilled manager to do more with less. This president’s stated policy goals focus overwhelmingly on the domestic side, and when boasting of his first-term foreign policy achievements, Barack Obama speaks mainly of bringing soldiers home, reducing the leverage of US diplomats at international bargaining tables.¶ As for this first trip, it’s no surprise that Mr Kerry begins his work in Europe and the Middle East, the two regions he knows best. Friendships in London, Berlin, Paris, Rome, Ankara, Cairo, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha will serve him well. His challenge in Europe will be to keep the US involved in the process of eurozone reform without offering much direct material help and to create momentum behind a transatlantic trade pact that will take years to negotiate.¶ In the Middle East, the first step will be to try to stop the carnage in Syria and help prepare the ground for a capable new government. He scored an early apparent success by helping persuade opposition leaders to join talks on Syria’s future. Yet Mr Kerry knows well that here, as in other Middle East hotspots, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran will have significant say in how a post-Assad Syria develops in coming years. Particularly given the “pivot” of more US resources and attention to Asia, America’s direct involvement will be more limited than in the past, and every government in the Middle East knows it.

Foreign Times 2-28 (John Kerry: an able performer in a tough role, The Economist, Foreign Times, 28 February 2013, http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2013/02/#axzz2NLY74YLL, da 3-12-13) PC

success as secretary of state depends on the ability of a skilled manager to do more with less. This president’s goals focus on the domestic side Obama speaks of bringing soldiers home, reducing the leverage of US diplomats at international bargaining tables Kerry begins his work in the Middle East In the Middle East He scored an early apparent success Yet Kerry knows that in Middle East hotspots America’s direct involvement will be more limited than in the past, and every government in the Middle East knows it

Kerry’s diplomatic capital is finite especially in the context of new Middle East policies

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He is expected to push for more aggressive, direct U.S. involvement on the interconnected challenges of Iran’s nuclear program, upheavals in Syria, Egypt and other Arab Spring countries, and dim prospects for an Arab-Israeli peace.¶ If confirmed, Kerry would take over a department stretched by short budgets and rising security costs overseas, and a diplomatic corps still reeling from the death of Christopher Stevens, U.S. ambassador to Libya, during the Sept. 11 attack on the U.S. mission in Benghazi.¶ A former top State Department official said that “good internal management of the department” could be a challenge for Kerry. “It’s very different running a Senate staff and running a big agency,” he said. “Senators have unique challenges, but they’re used to a world that revolves around them, and they have a staff, not a team.”

Washington Post 12-24 (Kerry provides new brand of diplomacy, The Washington Post, 24 December 2012, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2012/12/24/world/kerry-provides-new-brand-of-diplomacy/#.UT9pcnyx_i4, da 3-12-13) PC

He is expected to push for more U.S. involvement on Iran’s nuclear program Kerry would take over a department stretched by short budgets and rising security costs overseas, and a diplomatic corps still reeling from the death of Stevens A former top official said that “good internal management could be a challenge It’s very different running a big agency

The State Department is stretched thin – other policies trade off with engaging Iran.

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In theory, Kerry is in a good position to introduce a measure of even-handedness into dealing with the long-festering problem. He is familiar with the region, having travelled there often as a member and later chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on which he served for 28 years. In 2009, as chairman of the committee, he made a rare visit to Gaza. Aides say he has a personal passion for this “most vexing” of conflicts. Perhaps as importantly, Kerry is said to want to go down in history as one of America’s great secretaries of state. Helping settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would earn him a place in the pantheon of diplomacy and trump the achievements of many of his predecessors, including Hillary Clinton. She left office as the most widely traveled top diplomat in U.S. history but did not score a diplomatic triumph worthy of the history books. Unlike Clinton, Kerry appears to have no presidential ambitions for 2016, hence he is less constrained by domestic politics and the heated disputes often generated by the subject of Israel and the Palestinians.

Debusmann 13 (Bernd, former Reuters foreign affairs columnist, 4-19-13, “Kerry and the peace process .. Can he be the honest broker” The Daily Star) http://www.nosratashraf.com/en/content/21806

Kerry is in a good position to introduce a measure of even-handedness into dealing with the long-festering problem. He is familiar with the region, having travelled there often as a member and later chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, on which he served for 28 years. In 2009, as chairman of the committee, he made a visit to Gaza. Aides say he has a personal passion for this “most vexing” of conflicts. as importantly, Kerry is said to want to go down in history as one of America’s great secretaries of state. Helping settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would earn him a place in the pantheon of diplomacy and trump achievements of predecessors, Unlike Clinton, Kerry appears to have no presidential ambitions for 2016, hence he is less constrained by domestic politics and the heated disputes generated by the subject of Israel and the Palestinians.

Kerry is the key player in the peace process—he’s the only diplomat with the skill and familiarity to solve the problem

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U.S. leadership in the Middle East has helped foster conditions for productive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, said Secretary of State Hilary Clinton in a speech in front of the council on foreign relations Wednesday. Clinton explained the main facets of American foreign policy in the Middle East and in other parts of the world.

Belmaker '10 Gidon. Epoch Times Staff. 9/9/10. In Middle East Talks, US Plays Both Mediator and Actor. The Epoch Times. <http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/world/in-middle-east-talks-us-plays-both-mediator-and-actor-42303.html>

U.S. leadership in the Middle East has helped foster conditions for productive negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority

In Middle East talks, US is mediator and actor

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Even with a political settlement, however, it is unlikely that every suicidal fanatic can be indefinitely stopped, so Israel will probably have to continue to live with some level of conventional terrorism. What does threaten Israeli national security is the possibility that terrorists may come into possession of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons of mass destruction. This prospect is rarely publicly discussed in Israel, which is understandable but futile and even dangerous: minimizing the risk of catastrophe makes it improbable that the necessary steps will be taken to reduce its likelihood.[8] Given the increasing availability of weapons of mass destruction, Israel has no rational choice but to assume that it is only a matter of time before its enemies acquire them. At that point, Israel's main hope of averting an unthinkable catastrophe will have to rest on deterrence--that is, the threat, explicit or simply existential, of retaliation in kind.

Jerome Slater, professor of political science at SUNY at Buffalo, Winter 1998 (Political Science Quarterly "Netanyahu, a Palestinian state, and Israeli security reassessed" Vol. 112, Issue 4 ebsco)

it is unlikely that every suicidal fanatic can be indefinitely stopped What does threaten national security is the possibility that terrorists may come into possession of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons Given the increasing availability Israel has no rational choice but to assume that it is only a matter of time before its enemies acquire them. At that point, Israel's main hope of averting an unthinkable catastrophe will have to rest on deterrence

It’s a question of deterrence – terrorism will only stop once Palestinians have their own state

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Is a One-State Solution Possible? My absolutely unequivocal answer is: No. Anyone connected with the Jewish Israeli public knows that the desire for a state with a Jewish majority, where the Jews are masters of their own fate, trumps all other aims, even the desire for a state in all of Eretz Israel. One can talk about one state from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River, a bi-national or non-national state; in practice it means the dismantling of the State of Israel. That must be said clearly, and that’s what the public — certainly the Palestinian public, as well as the Jewish — quite rightly thinks it is. We want to change many things about this state, its historical narrative, its definition as a “Jewish and democratic” state, the occupation outside and the discrimination inside. We want to create a new basis for the relationship between the state and its Arab Palestinian citizens. But it is impossible to ignore the basic ethos of the overwhelming majority of the citizens. There is an illusion that this can be changed through external pressure. Will outside pressure compel 99.9% of the Jewish public to give up the state? No, nothing but a crushing military defeat will compel the Israelis to give up their state. The majority of the Palestinian people, too, want their own state — to realize their most basic aspirations, to restore their national pride, to heal their trauma. Even the leaders of Hamas, with whom we have talked, want it. Anyone who thinks otherwise is laboring under an illusion. There are Palestinians who talk about one state, but, for most, it is simply a code word for the dismantling of the State of Israel. They, too, know that it is utopian. There are also some Palestinians who believe that the possibility of one state will frighten the Israelis into agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the result of this Machiavellian thinking is quite the opposite: It pushes the Israelis into the arms of the right and raises the specter of ethnic cleansing.

Avnery 2007 (Uri, Journalist and Member of Knesset-the legislature of Israel, “One State: Solution or Utopia?” Future Options, Palestine-Israel Journal of Politics, Economics, and Culture, Vol 14, No 12. http://www.pij.org/details.php?id=1065)

Is a One-State Solution Possible? : No Anyone connected with the Jewish Israeli public knows that the desire for a state with a Jewish majority, where the Jews are masters of their own fate, trumps all other aims a bi-national or non-national state; in practice it means the dismantling of the State of Israel. No, nothing but a crushing military defeat will compel the Israelis to give up their state. The majority of the Palestinian people, too, want their own state — to realize their most basic aspirations, to restore their national pride, . There are also some Palestinians who believe that the possibility of one state will frighten the Israelis into agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state. But the result of this Machiavellian thinking is quite the opposite: It pushes the Israelis into the arms of the right and raises the specter of ethnic cleansing

The peace process is key to stop genocide

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When the push of a single button can produce cataclysmic effects, we discover an order of destruction – “omnicide” – even larger than genocide. But the opprobrium attached to the term “Genocide” seems also to have a connotation of corporate action – as if this act or sequence of acts would be a lesser fault, easier to understand if not to excuse if one person rather than a group were responsible for it. A group (we suppose) would be bound by a public moral code; decisions made would have been reached collectively; and the culpability of individual intentions would be multiplied proportionately. Admittedly, corporate responsibility is sometimes invoked in order to diminish (or at least to obscure) individual responsibility; so, for example, the “quagmire” effect that was appealed to retrospectively by defenders of the United States’ role in Vietnam. But for genocide, the likelihood of its corporate origins seems to accentuate its moral enormity: a large number of individual, intentional acts would have to be committed and the connections among them also affirmed in order to produce the extensive act. Unlike other corperate acts that might only be decided on but carried out by a single person or small group of persons, genocide in its scope seems necessarily to require collaboration by a relatively large number of agents acting both collectively and individually.

LANG, Professor of Humanities @ Trinity college, 1990 Act and Idea in the Nazi Genocide, pg13

the push of a button can produce omnicide But the opprobrium attached to the term “Genocide” seems to have a connotation of corporate action – as if this act would be a lesser fault if not to excuse if one person rather than a group were responsible for it for genocide its origins accentuate its moral enormity: a large number of individual, intentional acts would have to be committed and the connections among them also affirmed in order to produce the extensive act genocide in its scope seems necessarily to require collaboration by a relatively large number of agents acting both collectively and individually

b) Genocide outweighs omnicide

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The fall of Communism not only ended the Cold War; it also ended the only universalist ideological challenge to democracy. Radical Islam may still offer an alternative to democracy in parts of the world, but it appeals by definition only to Moslems and has not even won the assent of a majority of these. And Iranian President Khatami's second landslide election victory in 2001 suggests that even in the cradle of radical Islam the yearning for democracy is waxing. That Freedom House could count 120 freely elected governments by early 2001 (out of a total of 192 independent states) bespeaks a vast transformation in human governance within the span of 225 years. In 1775, the number of democracies was zero. In 1776, the birth of the United States of America brought the total up to one. Since then, democracy has spread at an accelerating pace, most of the growth having occurred within the twentieth century, with greatest momentum since 1974. That this momentum has slackened somewhat since its pinnacle in 1989, destined to be remembered as one of the most revolutionary years in all history, was inevitable. So many peoples were swept up in the democratic tide that there was certain to be some backsliding. Most countries' democratic evolution has included some fits and starts rather than a smooth progression. So it must be for the world as a whole. Nonetheless, the overall trend remains powerful and clear. Despite the backsliding, the number and proportion of democracies stands higher today than ever before. This progress offers a source of hope for enduring nuclear peace. The danger of nuclear war was radically reduced almost overnight when Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democracy. For other ominous corners of the world, we may be in a kind of race between the emergence or growth of nuclear arsenals and the advent of democratization. If this is so, the greatest cause for worry may rest with the Moslem Middle East where nuclear arsenals do not yet exist but where the prospects for democracy may be still more remote.

Muravchick-resident scholar at ADI 2001(Joshua, Presented before the NPEC/IGCC Summer Faculty Seminar July 11-14, 2001, University of California, San Diego)

Radical Islam may still offer an alternative to democracy in parts of the world, but it appeals by definition only to Moslems and has not even won the assent of a majority of these danger of nuclear war was radically reduced almost overnight when Russia abandoned Communism and turned to democracy. For other ominous corners of the world, we may be in a kind of race between the emergence or growth of nuclear arsenals and the advent of democratization. If this is so, the greatest cause for worry may rest with the Moslem Middle East where nuclear arsenals do not yet exist but where the prospects for democracy may be still more remote.

b) Democracy in Middle East prevents nuclear war

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Mr Kerry’s reputation for gravitas and diplomacy suggest that he would earn international respect. Indeed, he has also lived abroad. He has travelled extensively, and doubtless many Foreign Ministers already know him. Thus, the learning curve would not be steep, and he could begin building diplomatic capital straight away. And he will need it. The foreign policy plate is full. Syria’s regime is near collapse. North Korea is launching rockets. Rebels in the Congo and terrorists in northern Mali should make Africa a top priority for the next Secretary of State. China’s power grows by the day. Dear reader, our Republic has known constant war for a decade. Mr Kerry, teaming up with fellow Vietnam veteran Chuck Hagel in the Defense Department, could very well represent a good chance for a refined, constitutional foreign policy that puts peace first.

Jewell 12 (Daniel, economics graduate student at a state school in Southern California, 12-14-12, "THE NATURE OF A JOHN KERRY STATE SECRETARIAT" Ideas from the Periphery) ideasfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/2012/12/14/the-nature-of-a-john-kerry-state-secretariat/

Kerry’s reputation for gravitas and diplomacy suggest that he would earn international respect. he has also lived abroad. He has travelled extensively, and doubtless many Foreign Ministers already know him. Thus, the learning curve would not be steep, and he could begin building diplomatic capital straight away. And he will need it. The foreign policy plate is full. Syria’s regime is near collapse. North Korea is launching rockets. Rebels in the Congo and terrorists in northern Mali should make Africa a top priority China’s power grows by the day. Kerry could very well represent a good chance for a refined, constitutional foreign policy that puts peace first.

Kerry will be able to handle the diplomatic agenda now, but his plate is full

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Berkeley (CNDI)

Disadvantages

2013