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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
cL5X38U3cc1Z8bymJJ5P
|
will-the-europa-clipper-mission-suc
|
Will the Europa Clipper mission successfully launch in October 2024?
| null | 1,693,509,597,541
| 1,728,927,886,652
| 1,728,927,886,652
|
YES
| 0.99
| 4,476.17194
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
COypU6hUqI
|
will-gisele-pelicot-be-time-person
|
Will Gisèle Pelicot be Time Person of the Year 2024 (POTY)?
| null | 1,732,624,033,017
| 1,733,755,184,572
| 1,733,755,184,572
|
NO
| 0.042416
| 2,241.214975
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
ahaC9QuvZ1G7sq4QIwRP
|
will-starship-launch-in-september-2
|
Will Starship launch in September 2024
| null | 1,700,448,687,711
| 1,727,841,540,000
| 1,727,844,478,962
|
NO
| 0.01
| 27,649.534489
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
1Fry0tHzXLQ9zQFDnjNJ
|
will-be-another-company-hit-trillio
|
Will be another company hit trillion dollar Mkt CAP within the next 6 months?
| null | 1,704,416,494,538
| 1,734,771,372,855
| 1,734,771,372,855
|
YES
| 0.979873
| 3,207.898457
|
Finance
|
Corporate Finance
|
92eabtx59d
|
were-the-tesla-optimus-robots-teleo
|
Were the Tesla Optimus robots teleoperated at We, Robot?
| null | 1,728,622,076,597
| 1,729,095,544,647
| 1,729,095,544,647
|
YES
| 0.94
| 1,770.736112
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
ecyfuqljx8
|
will-kamala-harris-flip-a-state--cash
|
Will Kamala Harris flip a state?
| null | 1,726,769,565,603
| 1,730,955,540,000
| 1,731,050,096,100
|
NO
| 0.009871
| 7,117.839766
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
oKUgYkfuK0vLLyDJpSy2
|
will-a-colorado-pass-a-ballot-measu
|
Will Colorado pass a ballot measure in 2024 to make primaries open and enact ranked-choice voting?
| null | 1,703,046,205,543
| 1,730,938,020,891
| 1,730,938,020,891
|
NO
| 0.040652
| 1,113.476131
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
QjP2jypCHkU0vGNj5Pc7
|
will-the-republican-party-win-the-2
|
Will the Republican party win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
| null | 1,682,649,706,868
| 1,731,015,552,968
| 1,731,015,552,968
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,887.088171
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
tu9ckud3o8
|
will-israel-launch-air-strikes-with
|
Will Israel launch air strikes within 100 km of Tehran by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,727,773,943,216
| 1,729,966,221,713
| 1,729,966,221,713
|
YES
| 0.99
| 10,619.318778
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
QAqY8xFxIep05iodAk60
|
will-bitcoin-hit-90k-before-2031092
|
Will bitcoin hit $90k before 2031-09-27?
| null | 1,685,686,281,191
| 1,731,508,692,845
| 1,731,508,692,845
|
YES
| 0.990363
| 35,201.714724
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
gTd4KDcVMBS555fkCJYO
|
2024-tippingpoint-state-in-the-rust
|
2024 Tipping-point state in the Rust Belt?
| null | 1,673,287,914,633
| 1,734,617,674,046
| 1,734,617,674,046
|
YES
| 0.970436
| 922.000027
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
TtN8tHqOwtZCe8kII5Wf
|
will-september-2024-yoy-housing-cpi
|
Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 3%?
| null | 1,705,541,956,311
| 1,728,629,940,000
| 1,734,481,265,593
|
YES
| 0.99
| 745.25876
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
296ybaLp6xskH4pApIaQ
|
will-rfk-junior-reach-5-percent-of
|
Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent.
| null | 1,714,440,288,975
| 1,730,864,400,000
| 1,731,437,555,270
|
NO
| 0.012363
| 20,835.471705
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
IR0BCwm3T3lWfJYO4xi1
|
will-i-run-800km-this-year
|
Will I run 800km this year?
| null | 1,708,419,196,698
| 1,730,264,174,973
| 1,730,264,174,973
|
NO
| 0.186404
| 2,369.743111
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
AQ1zshi5TUpomQLW8H3N
|
google-vs-apple-will-apple-yes-comp-7b2b678001a5
|
Google vs. Apple: Will Apple (YES) company grow its workforce more in 2024 than Google (NO)?
| null | 1,702,234,306,714
| 1,731,743,940,000
| 1,731,871,832,964
|
YES
| 0.967247
| 700.153812
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
DaV0m6SVc1mkaeZhHjNX
|
will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Nov 2024?
| null | 1,705,772,469,926
| 1,730,576,494,979
| 1,730,576,494,979
|
NO
| 0.008761
| 12,984.789227
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
knk8030f14
|
will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1127
|
Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1127 of One Piece on September 19th?
| null | 1,726,144,236,681
| 1,726,815,540,000
| 1,726,901,628,763
|
NO
| 0.24
| 2,433.749401
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
wyg5ic1f5p
|
will-manifold-transform-the-site-in
|
Will Manifold transform the site in any way for Halloween?
| null | 1,724,509,450,687
| 1,730,320,378,965
| 1,730,320,378,965
|
YES
| 0.989948
| 2,250.785044
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
O3MJBruUz5fnydYwsSxF
|
will-any-of-the-videos-uploaded-to-aa9383599ef5
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Sep 2024 surpass 2M views?
| null | 1,707,191,770,709
| 1,727,372,006,666
| 1,727,372,006,666
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,483.294592
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
iADlG4vTG9A04S93OnyU
|
will-there-be-another-terrorist-att
|
Will there be another terrorist attack that Russia blames on Ukraine in 2024, causing at least 100 deaths?
| null | 1,714,842,226,623
| 1,735,682,340,000
| 1,735,687,610,674
|
NO
| 0.052352
| 5,128.653321
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
xNO1IRIP9cUZHiXBz7SU
|
will-the-next-leader-of-the-conserv-c7a6c0611e73
|
Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Suella Braverman?
| null | 1,684,171,201,606
| 1,730,566,027,594
| 1,730,566,027,594
|
NO
| 0.010053
| 13,473.799813
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
33vrxtwhmo
|
will-the-l-a-dodgers-play-the-balti
|
Will the L. A. Dodgers play the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB World Series?
| null | 1,721,765,410,172
| 1,727,961,563,000
| 1,727,961,563,000
|
NO
| 0.01
| 12,849.822117
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
0fpWPuSGBcNsD9Mhan7N
|
will-a-republican-be-elected-to-the
|
Will a Republican be elected to the United States Senate in 2024 in any state that Joe Biden won in 2020?
| null | 1,690,766,272,878
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,731,285,918,413
|
YES
| 0.391739
| 245.462816
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
C6ndR0ZScS
|
will-the-hawk-tuah-girls-podcast-ta-t0RpUAR6hA
|
Will the Hawk Tuah girl’s podcast (Talk Tuah with Hailey Welch) be in the Spotify Top 100 on Thanksgiving?
| null | 1,730,471,433,970
| 1,732,867,140,000
| 1,735,683,490,214
|
NO
| 0.012558
| 968.336936
|
Entertainment
|
Music & Audio
|
L7P0PDv6wFpHGdnYswIz
|
will-iphone-16-be-a-foldable-phone
|
Will iPhone 16 be a foldable phone?
| null | 1,679,682,954,671
| 1,731,555,770,613
| 1,731,555,770,613
|
NO
| 0.025159
| 2,256.771283
|
Technology
|
Mobile & Consumer Electronics
|
LhOrEf43G0i3wKKYCGF2
|
will-strutheo-get-100000-traders-be
|
Will @strutheo get 100,000 traders in one life, before 2024 ends?
| null | 1,713,152,259,755
| 1,733,717,772,617
| 1,733,717,772,617
|
NO
| 0.018649
| 11,408.925588
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
EFRNW3bUbE6L2UvTplTi
|
will-wikipedia-change-its-name-to-d-b45cc8c174e9
|
Will Wikipedia change it's name to Dickipedia?
| null | 1,698,075,048,210
| 1,729,742,340,000
| 1,729,787,634,378
|
NO
| 0.01
| 8,378.732314
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
88pb5u2cxk
|
will-kamala-harris-publicly-endorse
|
Will Kamala Harris publicly endorse raising the SALT deduction cap by Election Day 2024?
| null | 1,726,751,654,046
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,869,275,160
|
NO
| 0.18508
| 110
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2gLtClOPnn
|
will-the-sp-500-close-higher-on-fri-uhuR50yu6g
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday November 29th 2024 than it closed on Friday November 22nd 2024?
| null | 1,732,300,768,556
| 1,732,890,600,000
| 1,732,930,294,590
|
YES
| 0.490477
| 55
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
Ku4PF7RMoyWDrYTZNYuX
|
will-there-be-interest-free-loans-o
|
Will there be interest free loans on manifold at any point before 2026?
| null | 1,712,972,960,406
| 1,733,564,004,920
| 1,733,564,004,920
|
YES
| 0.992633
| 2,272.337934
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
1Dr5MrkbH4qQErlfkXbS
|
will-real-money-political-predictio-b314527f7b80
|
Will real money political prediction markets be legal in the US before the end of 2025?
| null | 1,712,172,469,488
| 1,727,928,557,348
| 1,727,928,557,348
|
YES
| 0.99
| 3,182.027148
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
jbzEG4B7RiE9414V2nu7
|
will-ameya-run-a-mile-in-60000-or-f
|
Will Ameya run a mile in 6:00.00 or faster before Jan 1, 2025
| null | 1,713,458,145,143
| 1,732,156,752,989
| 1,732,156,752,989
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,582.035083
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
1oZOuWU0Zcb9EwOz0RpT
|
will-the-federal-reserve-raise-inte-dd921dcf545a
|
Will the federal reserve raise interest rates at any time from March to November of '24?
| null | 1,710,128,771,613
| 1,733,032,740,000
| 1,733,061,210,224
|
NO
| 0.012466
| 2,722.932628
|
Finance
|
Economic Indicators
|
1uRYBoEKL76tkzuCJJrb
|
will-missouri-legalize-abortion-in
|
Will Missouri legalize abortion in the 2024 election?
| null | 1,706,155,197,587
| 1,730,872,740,000
| 1,730,900,720,940
|
YES
| 0.779128
| 672.175922
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
x8408rev6b
|
will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u
|
Will a “good” (fine-tuned) opensource model utilizing chain-of-thought reasoning like o1 be released by EOY 2024?
| null | 1,726,245,826,515
| 1,734,705,420,896
| 1,734,705,426,471
|
YES
| 0.870292
| 4,804.433385
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
2wdjvpx9fv
|
will-twitter-x-remove-likes-or-retw
|
Will Twitter/X.com remove Likes OR Retweets counts on posts from public view by the end of September?
| null | 1,719,970,310,552
| 1,727,841,540,000
| 1,727,885,638,370
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,429.458971
|
Technology
|
Internet & Digital Services
|
efAYUzzePhyfcdaXGVXv
|
will-gop-win-ohio-in-the-2024-us-pr
|
Will GOP win Ohio in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?
| null | 1,705,764,852,813
| 1,730,988,994,361
| 1,730,988,994,361
|
YES
| 0.983263
| 1,133.148271
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
I6g7erM0wSH2X2hrcpOL
|
will-a-democrat-win-north-carolina-4e960bb4fc91
|
Will a Democrat win North Carolina in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,273,680,559
| 1,730,902,483,683
| 1,730,902,483,683
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,506.082147
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
8lxY5qUyN0PtOTITTCdf
|
will-kizaru-betray-the-world-govern
|
Will Kizaru betray the world government during the Egghead Island Arc?
| null | 1,701,300,566,685
| 1,732,312,078,860
| 1,732,312,078,860
|
NO
| 0.018217
| 603.886095
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
ANgOvg9egaJEFZignpWg
|
will-joe-biden-and-dalai-lama-meet
|
Will Joe Biden and Dalai Lama meet in person in year 2024?
| null | 1,706,413,073,731
| 1,735,621,196,395
| 1,735,665,556,901
|
NO
| 0.030577
| 648
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
NtkK22jsiNGPzVWCRF2e
|
nfl-week-7-oct-20-will-the-buffalo
|
NFL Week 7 (Oct 20): Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Tennessee Titans?
| null | 1,715,834,053,419
| 1,729,616,400,000
| 1,729,617,786,639
|
YES
| 0.99
| 963.595048
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
clOkd1NrKzQN5guM9nLj
|
will-jjk-end-in-2024
|
Will JJK end in 2024?
| null | 1,715,843,990,645
| 1,727,933,135,591
| 1,727,933,135,591
|
YES
| 0.92
| 1,363.089927
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
4cMRGJSfzZMbVrllzLLS
|
who-will-be-elected-to-be-us-presid
|
Who will be elected to be US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)
| null | 1,685,917,894,139
| 1,730,793,600,000
| 1,730,990,536,186
|
NO
| 0.023952
| 27,453.876856
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
X0vFQqL0UGAp3TMe10LE
|
will-caltrain-electrification-finis-293a770aaf8c
|
Will Caltrain electrification finish by end of 2025?
| null | 1,674,096,108,249
| 1,734,970,297,482
| 1,734,970,297,482
|
YES
| 0.980993
| 8,135.560534
|
Politics
|
Domestic Policy
|
kjxaa7tdrr
|
will-any-world-leaders-be-assassina
|
Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,720,620,420,715
| 1,735,672,436,685
| 1,735,672,436,685
|
NO
| 0.037062
| 10,722.333923
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
qXu1vRB5aeYAgquhqhzr
|
10-us-court-rule-that-generative-ai
|
10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]
| null | 1,703,511,788,704
| 1,734,453,573,314
| 1,734,453,573,314
|
NO
| 0.010037
| 11,062.297784
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
zU8S84gXnb5p7ABiJOal
|
will-any-hamas-terrorists-be-arrest
|
Will any Hamas terrorists be arrested in the US in the next year? (Oct 8th, 2024)
| null | 1,697,138,447,313
| 1,729,058,340,000
| 1,729,083,918,668
|
NO
| 0.01
| 9,342.381742
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
I1GaMjmrugPnE9kVD8QG
|
nfl-week-14-dec-8-2024-will-the-los
|
NFL Week 14 (Dec 8 2024): Will the Los Angeles Rams (home) beat the Buffalo Bills (away)?
| null | 1,715,834,532,721
| 1,733,865,900,000
| 1,735,276,188,910
|
YES
| 0.99
| 1,282.227913
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
pYf3hMhhYYvAFqmwoVUR
|
will-september-2024-be-the-hottest
|
Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record in the US?
| null | 1,705,193,289,758
| 1,727,909,940,000
| 1,728,183,952,762
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,647.267632
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
nlejlk23ms
|
will-the-milwaukee-brewers-play-in
|
Will the Milwaukee Brewers play in the 2024 World Series?
| null | 1,721,837,570,769
| 1,728,045,764,092
| 1,728,045,764,092
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,726.8826
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
I9tnLctSdO
|
will-polymarket-a-volume-of-4-billi
|
Will Polymarket have a total volume of $4 billion on US 2024 elections?
| null | 1,730,813,255,986
| 1,730,917,302,076
| 1,730,917,302,076
|
NO
| 0.086694
| 6,804.255967
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
v9L9JJ2Ph5dzmS4brDrH
|
have-they-found-amelia-earharts-pla
|
Have they found Amelia Earhart's plane?
| null | 1,706,647,745,065
| 1,730,827,211,759
| 1,730,827,211,759
|
NO
| 0.01
| 10,254.887928
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
HD0dOwjnrmu6c8UZWdUL
|
is-the-firing-of-sam-altman-and-the
|
Is the firing of Sam Altman and the current situation at OpenAI mainly a consequence of an internal breakthrough?
| null | 1,700,447,173,083
| 1,732,078,740,000
| 1,734,818,192,444
|
NO
| 0.062343
| 3,960.311539
|
Technology
|
Tech Industry & Business
|
mslWqzdpHHBdQzetdotS
|
at-the-end-of-2024-will-the-most-us-2258f168d2da
|
At the end of 2024 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic)
| null | 1,705,677,151,376
| 1,735,671,197,054
| 1,735,671,197,054
|
NO
| 0.017662
| 9,576.490825
|
Entertainment
|
Gaming
|
jeSJaYpjoKDd4ONb1dO4
|
will-the-eu-and-australia-have-a-fr
|
Will the EU and Australia have a free trade agreement by 2025?
| null | 1,681,139,844,867
| 1,735,681,088,498
| 1,735,681,088,498
|
NO
| 0.070668
| 556.347184
|
Geopolitics
|
Trade & Economics
|
za3e2bm83n
|
will-i-eat-under-1650-calories-each-nhl3d4ku76
|
Will I eat under 1650 Calories each day this week (through 2024-09-21)?
| null | 1,726,427,045,197
| 1,726,707,731,495
| 1,726,707,731,495
|
NO
| 0.59
| 20
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
3ofba4kw2f
|
will-noa-nabeshima-publish-a-lesswr
|
Will Noa Nabeshima publish a Lesswrong post in the next 7 days
| null | 1,728,854,591,076
| 1,729,493,940,000
| 1,729,637,181,028
|
NO
| 0.02
| 611
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
s555a5e6m8
|
will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-get-at-lea
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. get at least 1% of the popular vote in Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,723,525,596,297
| 1,731,915,477,504
| 1,731,915,477,504
|
NO
| 0.01001
| 951
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
KLdcg1uSFALrUxcnVLNk
|
will-the-myanmar-junta-relinquish-p
|
Will the Myanmar junta relinquish power before October 2024?
| null | 1,696,244,958,482
| 1,727,779,239,812
| 1,727,779,239,812
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,547.860364
|
Geopolitics
|
Regional Affairs
|
J4tzFfTgsGSSQxrCT75N
|
will-reddit-dip-below-their-ipo-pri
|
Will Reddit dip below their IPO price of $34 before October 2024?
| null | 1,711,070,594,482
| 1,727,704,740,000
| 1,728,807,703,698
|
NO
| 0.01
| 2,017.089097
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
rzgmsexsra
|
will-doug-emhoff-be-a-guest-on-the
|
Will Doug Emhoff be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024?
| null | 1,725,512,819,523
| 1,730,805,525,542
| 1,730,805,525,542
|
NO
| 0.010012
| 1,042.809388
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qHvlpClQ3NOnS3yD46oB
|
f1-2024-will-lewis-hamilton-finish
|
F1 2024 - Will Lewis Hamilton finish ahead of George Russell in the WDC?
| null | 1,709,117,875,090
| 1,733,728,447,316
| 1,733,728,447,316
|
NO
| 0.01
| 3,328.556971
|
Sports
|
Individual Sports
|
wu0mzxhtjz
|
will-hezbollahs-exploding-pagers-be
|
Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery?
| null | 1,726,766,779,985
| 1,728,313,199,116
| 1,728,313,199,116
|
YES
| 0.99
| 12,771.368895
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
8h90olm50r
|
will-pavel-durov-be-forced-to-spend
|
Will Pavel Durov be Forced to spend Christmas in France?
| null | 1,724,883,661,574
| 1,735,134,418,759
| 1,735,134,418,759
|
YES
| 0.982844
| 8,678.201596
|
Politics
|
International Relations
|
dk6ppdpyj3
|
will-macron-give-a-speech-inside-th
|
Will Macron give a speech inside the Notre Dame cathedral during its re-opening?
| null | 1,727,116,340,395
| 1,733,606,851,588
| 1,733,606,851,588
|
YES
| 0.988607
| 1,167
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
K1qxS49ebDtSbSkzuZn0
|
will-kizaru-awaken-his-devil-fruit
|
WILL Kizaru Awaken His Devil Fruit On Egghead?
| null | 1,708,041,822,651
| 1,719,806,340,000
| 1,732,315,487,297
|
NO
| 0.174443
| 7,279.077983
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
yVGQmlgNObggkxptdz1R
|
will-houston-have-a-strong-tornado
|
Will Houston have a strong tornado in 2024?
| null | 1,701,551,947,249
| 1,735,578,428,521
| 1,735,578,428,521
|
YES
| 0.446597
| 78.434653
|
Politics
|
Public Policy & Social Issues
|
O3swsczCUmfPLTadMjXE
|
will-the-reds-win-82-or-more-games
|
Will the Reds win 82 or more games in the 2024 MLB regular season?
| null | 1,705,733,247,082
| 1,727,679,540,000
| 1,727,804,200,841
|
NO
| 0.01
| 449.27708
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
1u8gdhl386
|
will-trump-win-nevada-in-the-2024-p
|
Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,727,304,276,433
| 1,731,050,197,326
| 1,731,050,197,326
|
YES
| 0.990366
| 357,999.961514
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
isb5jsfjw7
|
will-tcb-scans-upload-chapter-1128
|
Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1128 of One Piece on October 3rd?
| null | 1,726,901,685,035
| 1,728,025,140,000
| 1,728,064,001,031
|
NO
| 0.61
| 479.364103
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
9oc0wz833r
|
will-manifold-have-10000-twitterx-f
|
Will Manifold have 10,000 Twitter/X followers before Election Day (Nov 5)?
| null | 1,724,257,306,953
| 1,730,825,262,762
| 1,730,825,262,762
|
NO
| 0.017195
| 54,615.383847
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
2i4y8488ez
|
will-trump-win-arizona-in-the-2024
|
Will Trump win Arizona in the 2024 Presidential Election?
| null | 1,727,304,119,385
| 1,731,050,482,430
| 1,731,050,482,430
|
YES
| 0.993746
| 409,898.625694
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
qhzQgRgnNt
|
will-political-markets-stop-dominat
|
Will political markets stop dominating Manifold by next month.
| null | 1,731,276,165,674
| 1,734,533,565,210
| 1,734,533,565,210
|
YES
| 0.367661
| 1,824.084717
|
Politics
|
Political Parties & Ideologies
|
miyw2eiqvt
|
will-ukraine-take-control-of-the-ku-a5cxqghsz7
|
Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month?
| null | 1,725,296,647,237
| 1,727,733,540,000
| 1,727,734,562,817
|
NO
| 0.01
| 156,027.793186
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
NZuLqNqURy
|
daily-coinflip-6ZpnqAC6PP
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,730,696,863,606
| 1,730,869,140,000
| 1,730,875,725,312
|
NO
| 0.51
| 10,483.257889
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
ZcDnZfa89rPcY4eOiPck
|
will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-804816d5e30f
|
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania in the 2024 POTUS election?
| null | 1,686,273,470,977
| 1,730,902,425,248
| 1,730,902,425,248
|
YES
| 0.99
| 2,519.321774
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
IhHxbCxzWHD1cFU4GmD9
|
will-a-test-subject-die-at-neuralli
|
Will a test subject die at Neurallink in 2024?
| null | 1,709,304,324,448
| 1,735,685,940,000
| 1,735,686,300,092
|
NO
| 0.056718
| 3,502.637805
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
4XLAG4riFXclnnqxAXG7
|
bayern-munich-202425-to-win-any-dom
|
Bayern Munich 2024/25: to win any Domestic Cup, any European Cup, and any player with ≥41 Bundesliga goals
| null | 1,716,025,643,841
| 1,735,233,113,914
| 1,735,233,113,914
|
NO
| 0.034707
| 4,502
|
Sports
|
Professional Sports
|
UNOhIpOlEg
|
will-the-sp-500-stock-index-close-h-6ClSNgy6R5
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Dec 13 than it closed on Dec 12?
| null | 1,734,041,062,102
| 1,734,123,781,778
| 1,734,123,781,778
|
NO
| 0.412929
| 409.995094
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
6n2t81eboi
|
will-there-be-any-break-between-one-hw1zsn3fzy
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1128 and 1129?
| null | 1,726,522,330,973
| 1,727,813,833,520
| 1,727,813,836,521
|
NO
| 0.03
| 4,759
|
Entertainment
|
Books & Literature
|
pabt9g6gtk
|
will-donald-trump-drop-out-of-the-p-f6ek0sgypv
|
Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ?
| null | 1,723,067,604,330
| 1,730,850,482,746
| 1,730,850,482,746
|
NO
| 0.008912
| 123,238.790106
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
bKXOSz6PnXjngfP3fsVe
|
will-jimmy-carter-outlive-manifold
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Manifold Markets?
| null | 1,713,931,936,979
| 1,735,516,255,997
| 1,735,516,255,997
|
NO
| 0.011139
| 10,738.406811
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
36kqlhz2PGPFhRM8eLoD
|
will-kamala-harris-visit-another-ab
|
Will Kamala Harris visit another abortion clinic before the election?
| null | 1,714,607,866,445
| 1,730,879,940,000
| 1,730,943,259,871
|
NO
| 0.038709
| 557.426555
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
H2wwMk9mg47xGnrot6Kl
|
will-joe-biden-and-benjamin-netanya
|
Will Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu meet in person in year 2024?
| null | 1,706,413,096,137
| 1,734,457,264,953
| 1,734,457,264,953
|
YES
| 0.99
| 982.006111
|
Politics
|
International Relations
|
U0z2ry6EaEsTZLvZ6qqf
|
will-this-tweet-hold-up-sora-will-s
|
will this tweet hold up: Sora will sign an exclusive deal with Sony Pictures
| null | 1,710,207,299,593
| 1,733,794,089,070
| 1,733,794,089,070
|
NO
| 0.063995
| 1,182.551765
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
Q2c0EZhg25
|
daily-coinflip-ESsZuhPCcZ
|
Daily coinflip
| null | 1,731,296,466,506
| 1,731,385,800,000
| 1,731,418,176,695
|
YES
| 0.506443
| 4,782.635363
|
Sports
|
Sports Culture & Recreation
|
qg9lv8ljb0
|
will-kamala-harriss-highest-polling
|
Will Kamala Harris's highest polling this election cycle occur during or just after the Democratic National Convention?
| null | 1,722,101,136,992
| 1,724,137,140,000
| 1,730,787,980,854
|
YES
| 0.353282
| 3,518.524192
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
1n1yFBEOk5JmsB3MC9Gw
|
will-israel-attack-at-least-one-of
|
Will Israel attack at least one of Iran's nuclear facilities by year-end 2024?
| null | 1,713,143,415,237
| 1,732,105,786,080
| 1,732,105,786,080
|
YES
| 0.85796
| 50,775.017788
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
00BD9JD5ZG3MjzfqHsux
|
is-the-lean-kernel-unsound
|
Will a soundness hole be discovered in lean4checker?
| null | 1,695,821,239,702
| 1,735,649,940,000
| 1,735,686,112,247
|
NO
| 0.088639
| 7,306.25493
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65
|
will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Oct 2024?
| null | 1,705,843,818,735
| 1,728,202,753,714
| 1,728,202,753,714
|
NO
| 0.01
| 6,741.054985
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
t6RsIIsLcO
|
will-this-market-close-above-60-chh9A6E58I
|
Will this market close above 60%
| null | 1,732,405,497,266
| 1,733,093,940,000
| 1,733,094,095,018
|
YES
| 0.985338
| 1,031.055355
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
evNABatwCVTSYGv14z3Y
|
will-vladimir-putin-be-alive-on-dec
|
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024?
| null | 1,689,336,696,149
| 1,734,847,200,000
| 1,734,904,012,639
|
YES
| 0.99
| 102,074.634271
|
Geopolitics
|
Global Conflicts
|
ePI08ks2TDkVbxJ02IHl
|
shrek-5-releases-in-2024
|
Shrek 5 releases in 2024
| null | 1,705,681,163,236
| 1,735,640,809,321
| 1,735,640,809,321
|
NO
| 0.01
| 1,337.819898
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
nNZxX0jkOeWcN72p0V0P
|
chatgpt-with-gpt3-will-be-able-to-d
|
ChatGPT with GPT-3 Will Be Able to Draw a Turtle with Python Turtle by End of June 2024
| null | 1,683,752,646,288
| 1,719,809,940,000
| 1,734,803,725,773
|
NO
| 0.056456
| 385.649899
|
Technology
|
Computing & Software
|
FLtHUn96T71ZPqDTpBGf
|
will-the-total-market-capitalizatio
|
Will the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies exceed $3 trillion USD by the end of 2024?
| null | 1,697,914,446,986
| 1,734,390,999,602
| 1,734,390,999,602
|
YES
| 0.952589
| 1,482.665839
|
Finance
|
Markets & Trading
|
LEhn8Itu50
|
will-openai-launch-or-announce-some
|
Will OpenAI launch or announce something new on ChatGPT’s anniversary tomorrow?
| null | 1,732,899,783,286
| 1,733,058,399,646
| 1,733,058,399,646
|
NO
| 0.044174
| 10,090.241449
|
Technology
|
Emerging Technologies
|
0j3PFTOngtJcz2uxQmpX
|
will-any-manifold-user-withdraw-at
|
Will any Manifold user withdraw at least $1,000 from Manifold "sweepcash" in 2024?
| null | 1,713,931,650,595
| 1,729,225,742,935
| 1,729,225,742,935
|
YES
| 0.99
| 41,736.669697
|
Finance
|
Personal Finance
|
drx8iE8BSWNuYkmMfmhV
|
will-gojo-satoru-return-before-summ
|
Will Gojo Satoru return before summer?
| null | 1,712,336,632,831
| 1,719,028,740,000
| 1,730,867,824,745
|
NO
| 0.175913
| 287.799246
|
Entertainment
|
Movies & Television
|
o6fnOS2MFC4pi7OECcq6
|
will-republicans-win-the-senate-in
|
Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2024 elections?
| null | 1,670,516,629,852
| 1,730,946,807,565
| 1,730,946,807,565
|
YES
| 0.99
| 18,260.366172
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
3t0do50n5z
|
will-destiny-appear-on-the-david-pa
|
Will Destiny appear on The David Pakman Show on or before Election day 2024
| null | 1,728,356,852,435
| 1,730,813,340,000
| 1,730,821,856,613
|
NO
| 0.01
| 894.987437
|
Politics
|
Elections & Campaigns
|
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