question_id
stringlengths 0
66
| condition_id
stringlengths 0
66
| question
stringlengths 2
118
| description
stringlengths 159
1.79k
| end_date_iso
stringdate 2024-12-31 00:00:00
2026-02-28 00:00:00
⌀ | active
bool 2
classes | closed
bool 2
classes | market_slug
stringlengths 12
132
| tags
listlengths 1
17
⌀ | is_50_50
bool 2
classes | yes_price
float64 0
1
⌀ | no_price
float64 0
1
⌀ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0xa63f46436276b46e4e9ce3980390d872d80826655f397c5b77f2bd75dd385bd8
|
0x75534f99fc068fcba4200a8ed6721c6d9f83148c473d7c2a4708ae2682a9671e
|
Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin attends the presidential inauguration currently scheduled for January 20, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attending the inauguration is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the ceremony.
The primary resolution source for this market will be video and phot evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-vladimir-putin-attend-presidential-inauguration
|
[
"Politics",
"Trump",
"US Election",
"Trump Presidency",
"Inauguration"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x52f3fc0a9b7bcfc1c1ddc4e374018e153264b31b3abe1dbd3bbbe591bd8149a3
|
0xf1d4991800e45fb605dface8076828f544f0942d43bb860c7143cc50f5afa0db
|
Will Alex Ovechkin break the scoring record this season?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Ovechkin finishes the 2024-25 NHL Regular Season with 895 or more career NHL regular season goals, breaking the record set by Wayne Gretzky. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Ovechkin scores his 895th goal before the end of the 2024-25 NHL Regular Season, this market will instantly resolve to "Yes". Likewise, if Ovechkin retires, or is ruled out for the season before reaching the mark of 895 career NHL Regular Season goals, this market will instantly resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the NHL, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-04-17T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-alex-ovechkin-break-the-scoring-record
|
[
"Sports",
"records",
"NHL",
"Alex Ovechkin",
"2025 Predictions"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xd2b89ad7f7512f482ff0377bcbc870bb6be208d36e48e92c7974d77b15e61fca
|
0x66fb0ba23866510d57392232eabc676915b0e00fa87220c652035c32f46105e1
|
Will Trump pardon January 6 protestors on Day 1?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any person receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump on January 20, 2025 ET, for crimes related to the January 6 Capitol attack. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Announcements that Trump will pardon individuals will not count. Only pardons, commutations, or reprieves actually issued on that date will count toward a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether any protestor is pardoned will be official information from the US government (e.g. https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-recipients), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-trump-pardon-anyone-on-day-1
|
[
"Politics",
"Trump",
"Trump Presidency",
"Inauguration",
"Trump Day 1"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x9ef8db32c6b8bd57d79218a14d85d851bf4f563e4646528c67812b7e425ce203
|
0x760e4165cd9fd3f0a9aa8ab2d9f406550765a36a61490b7da9ffaf5bd0656f97
|
Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in December 2024?
|
This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for December 2024.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for December 2024 is 4.4% or greater, otherwise it will resolve to “No”.
The next data release is scheduled for January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
|
2025-01-10T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-unemployment-be-4pt4-or-higher-in-december-2024
|
[
"Politics",
"employment",
"unemployment",
"Economy",
"bls",
"Macro Unemployment"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc31d26a6a8376f88edbc5901d63080da07cd6d0b65893ee8cb15e0abd3248504
|
0x89dd6daab7f5645b4445e78b8d2a72f5b7e3f4e33ae31b8b41fde2565906849c
|
Will US add between 250k and 300k jobs in December 2024?
|
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains between 250,000 (inclusive) and 300,000 (inclusive) in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
|
2025-01-10T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-add-between-250k-and-300k-jobs-in-december-2024
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"jobs",
"Economy",
"bls",
"Macro Jobs",
"payroll",
"nonfarm",
"farm"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xcfc1e7e29a21f8b364cb3d4c68a784ac4c76e659145c3caeafa809668592d800
|
0xc5bb8aabf50ca7230c63be0a900fe0ac4018f36ab6dd0aeebd9e59beaf08c415
|
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
|
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Belarus on January 26, 2025. If no candidate achieves a majority, a second round of elections will be scheduled between the top two candidates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexander Lukashenko wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Belarusian Government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Цэнтральная выбарчая камісія Беларусі, CEC) (https://www.rec.gov.by/en/).
|
2025-01-26T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-alexander-lukashenko-win-the-2025-belarus-presidential-election
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"World Elections",
"belarus"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xca21941f7fcdfa5d725cfef718f81172ab9a647536662a3d5b3b654f6eab94b5
|
0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d
|
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before June?
|
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
|
2025-05-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bitcoin-migrate-from-sha-256-before-june
|
[
"Crypto",
"Science",
"Bitcoin",
"quantum"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x6a19efcb30485af64b0caca5fd9f079326063fd28f85fd4d3d65676f59857c85
|
0x61525b3ad17cb82b7baac27da82bd1d23f3c7ccb25db194c531547912905be0c
|
RFK's daughter-in-law picked as CIA deputy director?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump or one of his official representatives announce that they will appoint Amaryllis Fox Kennedy as Deputy Director of the CIA by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be information from Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming the appointment may also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
rfks-daughter-in-law-announced-as-cia-deputy-director
|
[
"Politics",
"Trump",
"robert f. kennedy jr.",
"RFK",
"Trump Presidency",
"Cabinet"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc31d26a6a8376f88edbc5901d63080da07cd6d0b65893ee8cb15e0abd3248505
|
0xf112a927d48b37e0741f19f4c9fb8ac7d40442432762eb4e7c72090cd03e3a82
|
Will US add more than 300k jobs in December 2024?
|
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains more than 300,000 in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
|
2025-01-10T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-add-more-than-300k-jobs-in-december-2024
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"jobs",
"Economy",
"bls",
"Macro Jobs",
"payroll",
"nonfarm",
"farm"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xcfc1e7e29a21f8b364cb3d4c68a784ac4c76e659145c3caeafa809668592d801
|
0x463269b82e71978386f9cfc018048cb76a4661cc6d82690dac552adf0117b51b
|
Will Oleg Gaidukevich win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
|
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Belarus on January 26, 2025. If no candidate achieves a majority, a second round of elections will be scheduled between the top two candidates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oleg Gaidukevich wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Belarusian Government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Цэнтральная выбарчая камісія Беларусі, CEC) (https://www.rec.gov.by/en/).
|
2025-01-26T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-oleg-gaidukevich-win-the-2025-belarus-presidential-election
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"World Elections",
"belarus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x80e69060dfe8db96537cbd90cbcf38b98e84bc82ee9bf98400022bfdc533b602
|
0xc4c852b4a02e839890e9d1457f76711b4d4c886a7b77606de1454193be7dbbd9
|
Will US annual inflation be 2.8% in December?
|
This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending December 2024 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by 2.8 percent over the 12 month period ending December 2024 and “No“ otherwise.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS December 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
----
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
|
2025-01-15T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-annual-inflation-be-2pt8-in-december
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"Inflation",
"bls",
"Macro Inflation"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x49cc95d87b183eec5e6241f69cf5300c5f9b28fbe35b2b67a45f5a6162e71d03
|
0x5c3d2abe1e5ca77740ac74201a0219ad2d9ac2bcddb87efe1b1e73b46a8afe59
|
Luigi Mangione not extradited to New York by February?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione, the suspected shooter of United Healthcare CEO, is not extradited to the state of New York by February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
"Extradited" to New York means Luigi Mangione enters the territory of New York state while in custody. If he is flown to or over New York, he must set foot on the ground within the state for it to count toward a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official government sources from the relevant extraditing and receiving institutions, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
luigi-mangione-not-extradited-to-new-york-by-february
|
[
"Culture",
"internet",
"UnitedHealthcare",
"UHC",
"Luigi Mangione"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x9dc485605a9b703a54ae942e0f29e51ada3a121c9b3036ae9bff85a4ec361a50
|
0x08b0d420868aa420fdef3c8767abf3189948a1d114e2972727ab19b71059c337
|
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by March 31?
|
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 13, 2024, 13:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price of $80,000 or lower. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bitcoin-dip-to-80000-by-march-31
|
[
"Crypto",
"Bitcoin",
"Crypto Prices"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x6823b2cf287988be862c8879df4e9a1f15f43ab5f0260f9319b04db9af4f4f8a
|
0xf8444097d611b24ad7f70e6335c53f03a14f0c39c1e9e58040eca36664886e25
|
Will Saquon Barkley rush for 2,000 yards?
|
This market refers to the season long regular season rushing total of Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles.
If Saquon Barkley finishes the 2024-25 NFL Regular Season with 2,000 or more rushing yards, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official stat keeping by the NFL, however of a consensus of quality reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-06T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-saquon-barkley-rush-for-2000-yards
|
[
"Sports",
"eagles",
"NFL",
"Saquon Barkley"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xcfc1e7e29a21f8b364cb3d4c68a784ac4c76e659145c3caeafa809668592d804
|
0x8cbab07bd6b0401bdbfaf494cb9610212c8dc2443e392a0db865d4e8eb3c51b3
|
Will Anna Kanopatskaya win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
|
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Belarus on January 26, 2025. If no candidate achieves a majority, a second round of elections will be scheduled between the top two candidates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anna Kanopatskaya wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Belarusian Government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Цэнтральная выбарчая камісія Беларусі, CEC) (https://www.rec.gov.by/en/).
|
2025-01-26T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-anna-kanopatskaya-win-the-2025-belarus-presidential-election
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"World Elections",
"belarus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe13c2ec90aaa20bf0a2aa70c54accdf26567c769b135c35af3c439127e9e0101
|
0x4a044881137b2ec058392a87ab57c1bc22705ee5c385d726e4400d9a7f2f5c65
|
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
|
The 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship is scheduled to take place December 30 - December 31. You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-fide-world-blitz-chess-championships
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fabiano Caruana wins the 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this person to win this tournament (e.g. they are eliminated in the bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If this event is cancelled, or not completed by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-fabiano-caruana-win-the-2024-world-blitz-championship
|
[
"Sports",
"Esports",
"Chess",
"Tournaments",
"FIDE",
"Magnus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xa72fbe8554708cd6d063d483838f9589038886a6e26640cdf2f875ec32439107
|
0x9ac4df341a085d95b140921056e5b221e21ad05d090c8567c39cea071bc01303
|
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Orlando Magic?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat is traded to the Orlando Magic before the trade deadline for the 2024-2025 NBA season, currently scheduled for February 6, 2025 3:00 PM ET, goes into effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market’s resolution source will be official announcements from the NBA and the Miami Heat, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-02-06T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-jimmy-butler-get-traded-to-the-orlando-magic
|
[
"Sports",
"warriors",
"mavericks",
"NBA",
"Miami",
"Houston",
"Buckets",
"Butler",
"Jimmy"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x60cce590a690a2329547ebb038db4133065af7039dbaab6b727a926630e195d4
|
0x116207dd86a6fe370e15bf23e482e1049157d39cbc2a323be2de510e678bcc50
|
Will Jimmy Butler get traded?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat is traded to another NBA team before the trade deadline for the 2024-2025 NBA season, currently scheduled for February 6, 2025 3:00 PM ET, goes into effect.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-02-06T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-jimmy-butler-get-traded
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"trades",
"Rumors",
"Miami Heat"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xfac95bbda95a367c4f98346a531c24f28fff992cfaa6e755080529901751facd
|
0x0828fb562474c6c4647fb3471db0e85ce5c1f65c0765817ebd456b85aa306ba2
|
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation formally recognizes any new government as the legitimate governing authority of the majority of the territory known as Syria, by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only formal recognition of a government as the country's legitimate authority/government will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge a new Syrian government, but do not formally recognize the authority of the government will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-russia-recognize-syrian-government-by-march-31
|
[
"Politics",
"Syria",
"Middle East",
"Geopolitics",
"Turkey",
"Foreign Policy",
"World"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xcae76022749edb92293fc7a536a06f1b208d0d2620306b2c0fdf4a4fe56b3229
|
0xb9b57eff8e0a14b212185554587d9bab1cc80a5c7a43300d4835d02a4005d22a
|
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally recognizes any new government as the legitimate governing authority of the majority of the territory known as Syria, by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only formal recognition of a government as the country's legitimate authority/government will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge a new Syrian government, but do not formally recognize the authority of the government will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-us-recognize-syrian-government-by-march-31
|
[
"Politics",
"Syria",
"Middle East",
"Geopolitics",
"Turkey",
"Foreign Policy",
"World"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x32c6f8f0b5827732ceeb3cb1290c73a11b5f25655dda0b4ebb41c2ca39e6cd07
|
0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f
|
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by March 31?
|
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $130,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bitcoin-reach-130000-by-march-31
|
[
"Crypto",
"Bitcoin",
"Crypto Prices"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x49cc95d87b183eec5e6241f69cf5300c5f9b28fbe35b2b67a45f5a6162e71d01
|
0xffb205b09d71b892464d543c8c62a5b01a1cd31d721056db6806525d399db018
|
Luigi Mangione extradited to New York in January?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione, the suspected shooter of United Healthcare CEO, is extradited to the state of New York between January 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
"Extradited" to New York means Luigi Mangione enters the territory of New York state while in custody. If he is flown to or over New York, he must set foot on the ground within the state for it to count toward a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official government sources from the relevant extraditing and receiving institutions, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
luigi-mangione-extradited-to-new-york-in-january
|
[
"Culture",
"internet",
"UnitedHealthcare",
"UHC",
"Luigi Mangione"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x1a10ab16cc6e7fd8386a055444a40612f67ef5366561326b23726d8ed2b13dce
|
0x47400c4823fe9e0cbf388bfa7c4f26b2146b7b21fa7407303b9d4f8af362f165
|
Joe Burrow and Olivia Holzmacher break up this season?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Burrow and Olivia Holzmacher end their romantic relationship by February 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation can come in various forms, including, but not limited to, social media posts, interviews, press releases, official statements, or a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "No" otherwise.
If it's unclear whether or not they are in a romantic relationship, this market will resolve to the side with the stronger argument based on credible reporting.
|
2025-02-09T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
joe-burrow-and-olivia-holzmacher-break-up-this-season
|
[
"bengals",
"NFL",
"Culture",
"Rumors",
"Joe Burrow",
"Olivia Holzmacher"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xc31d26a6a8376f88edbc5901d63080da07cd6d0b65893ee8cb15e0abd3248503
|
0x60262fed29cabb3ecbcf9ee404cd1612fafbd5cf566b3871ebe95712f560b556
|
Will US add between 200k and 250k jobs in December 2024?
|
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains between 200,000 (inclusive) and 250,000 (exclusive) in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
|
2025-01-10T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-add-between-200k-and-250k-jobs-in-december-2024
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"jobs",
"Economy",
"bls",
"Macro Jobs",
"payroll",
"nonfarm",
"farm"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe13c2ec90aaa20bf0a2aa70c54accdf26567c769b135c35af3c439127e9e0107
|
0xb307fe66eca6050b53ec10cd060e0d1152f944c6c144b328453b57adbcd7e4e9
|
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
|
The 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship is scheduled to take place December 30 - December 31. You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-fide-world-blitz-chess-championships
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maxime Vachier-Lagrave wins the 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this person to win this tournament (e.g. they are eliminated in the bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If this event is cancelled, or not completed by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-maxime-vachier-lagrave-win-the-2024-world-blitz-championship
|
[
"Sports",
"Esports",
"Chess",
"Tournaments",
"FIDE",
"Magnus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xa72fbe8554708cd6d063d483838f9589038886a6e26640cdf2f875ec32439104
|
0x687f41a01bfd0bb69aa0380c60dbdc4ade8b4a9e6acf6cd4dec071529ec0cd99
|
Will Jimmy Butler get traded to the Los Angeles Lakers?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Butler of the Miami Heat is traded to the Los Angeles Lakers before the trade deadline for the 2024-2025 NBA season, currently scheduled for February 6, 2025 3:00 PM ET, goes into effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market’s resolution source will be official announcements from the NBA and the Miami Heat, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-02-06T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-jimmy-butler-get-traded-to-the-los-angeles-lakers
|
[
"Sports",
"warriors",
"mavericks",
"NBA",
"Miami",
"Houston",
"Buckets",
"Butler",
"Jimmy"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x3d64d230b4a2775b84d0162889c5b7cd15b05632f0b42ce0579b6b1914b2cd15
|
0x39bc347a1bb74a3f410ea850a46962572e3d932bf00f0f99b7a3d2b4141fa87a
|
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?
|
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $200,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bitcoin-reach-200000-by-march-31
|
[
"Crypto",
"Bitcoin",
"Crypto Prices"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc31d26a6a8376f88edbc5901d63080da07cd6d0b65893ee8cb15e0abd3248500
|
0x026bd42df2b17550ad5edceb43f95553b254deb94571905c5338cb3dc5a801ab
|
Will US add less than 100k jobs in December 2024?
|
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States gains less than 100,000 in nonfarm payroll employment according to the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for November, scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025, 8:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
|
2025-01-10T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-add-less-than-100k-jobs-in-december-2024
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"jobs",
"Economy",
"bls",
"Macro Jobs",
"payroll",
"nonfarm",
"farm"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x39d7891ade672268aafe8e59466ac1c0f605a50cb87766baf289ec9beaed23c9
|
0x43efad46190af66027a398689b43ff5d91f55349ed2bc25a39f5cee06b628a41
|
Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelensky attends the presidential inauguration currently scheduled for January 20, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attending the inauguration is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the ceremony.
The primary resolution source for this market will be video and phot evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-volodymyr-zelensky-attend-presidential-inauguration
|
[
"Politics",
"Trump",
"US Election",
"Trump Presidency",
"Inauguration"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xa628883ef20d80c2d50138995399870112898831c899c5f5ac877d0b67f25701
|
0xe361da754933b6deb00ea9eb8f5634a3bb08e3f8329d2d7fb5ecaae54b253738
|
Will it be confirmed that Luigi Mangione used psychedelics?
|
Due to Luigi Mangione's Goodreads account and x.com presence, it has been suggested that psychedelic use contributed to his mental instability. (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/09/us/luigi-mangione-what-we-know-monday/index.html)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET that Luigi Mangione, the suspect in the shooting of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, took psychedelics/hallucinogens one or more times. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official statements from Mangione, his legal representation, and information released by law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Credible reporting consists of outlets such as NYtimes, AP News, etc.
|
2025-04-30T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-it-be-confirmed-that-luigi-mangione-used-psychedelics
|
[
"Culture",
"UnitedHealthcare",
"Luigi Mangione"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xa12398905acef5a007471a0c2c4c8c454d6671f0ac45d0596e3772de7479d473
|
0xe37991d898fd51036ce793a336cb13db1721926bfd359950d76c80c4a1a417ba
|
Will 'The Piano Lesson' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
|
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards nominees are set to be announced on January 23.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "The Piano Lesson" secures a nomination for the Academy Award for Best Picture. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no nominees are declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If this film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-17T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-piano-lesson-be-nominated-for-oscar-for-best-picture
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xb0f5c5e21998d180e7aaf361ad50981ac4e0267f008fe7912205aedbe80cffae
|
0xac8019c94679bc5e67e49b50a85f26f07a7046772e00d0ec838491ea39c50745
|
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Syrian government by March 31?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia formally recognizes any new government as the legitimate governing authority of the majority of the territory known as Syria, by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only formal recognition of a government as the country's legitimate authority/government will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge a new Syrian government, but do not formally recognize the authority of the government will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the recognizing government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-saudi-arabia-recognize-syrian-government-by-march-31
|
[
"Politics",
"Syria",
"Middle East",
"Geopolitics",
"Turkey",
"Foreign Policy",
"World"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x8a9402bf20da2fcdb519810ac47023d39e838aa7726d9c7fbebe9e0c8fcedebb
|
0xe0a5b98f6e96050b794603710e39a0e3f5c0e24b409f51370b75b46a45d2dbc3
|
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31?
|
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETHUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $5,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETHUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETHUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-ethereum-hit-5000pt00-by-march-31
|
[
"Crypto",
"Ethereum",
"Crypto Prices"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x9d4ce06887beb3028f3a10ade757dccd9a751b873c3c54d6a76f098a8db2b58a
|
0x248d03cfc4859c09c9a408b11fb80195bb3d74b2e791b443226e6646aa65c649
|
Will AOC lead House oversight committee?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is announced as the next Ranking Member (top Democrat) of the House Oversight Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of the next Ranking Member of the House Oversight Committee from the Democratic Party. If another individual is announced, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Democratic Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-aoc-lead-house-oversight-committee
|
[
"Politics",
"democratic party",
"Congress",
"aoc",
"Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
"house",
"Pelosi"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe13c2ec90aaa20bf0a2aa70c54accdf26567c769b135c35af3c439127e9e010d
|
0x9131937353f293dc46435c8c96d1c3bfaa91aa28eda31304347da9026a191a5e
|
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
|
The 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship is scheduled to take place December 26 - December 28 You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-fide-world-blitz-chess-championships
This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone other than any of the named competitors wins this tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this person to win this tournament (e.g. they are eliminated in the bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If this event is cancelled, or not completed by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-another-person-win-the-2024-world-blitz-championship
|
[
"Sports",
"Esports",
"Chess",
"Tournaments",
"FIDE",
"Magnus"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x1d75ba554f2e5d13fa22cc620872120cfcbea110737618a073a890669a1508a9
|
0x3b781ece48b1fb8090db7881c8d29956e8e784fc558ada927800c42586a39a4b
|
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31?
|
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $120,000 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bitcoin-reach-120000-by-march-31
|
[
"Crypto",
"Bitcoin",
"Crypto Prices"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe13c2ec90aaa20bf0a2aa70c54accdf26567c769b135c35af3c439127e9e0108
|
0x7ed39d5ec3e72074ab27d3f1c708a533a013ebad17c239bac394ad992ee36734
|
Will Ben Finegold win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
|
The 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship is scheduled to take place December 30 - December 31. You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-fide-world-blitz-chess-championships
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben Finegold wins the 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this person to win this tournament (e.g. they are eliminated in the bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If this event is cancelled, or not completed by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-ben-finegold-win-the-2024-world-blitz-championship
|
[
"Sports",
"Esports",
"Chess",
"Tournaments",
"FIDE",
"Magnus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe2e66f19631f7a4169cb67d452027d37f1bb87df64f7598a97c40b85e542b884
|
0x59da42e69bbe6d68ac3b7840c6f0900b327c07b9d3787c7521a4c1a4dfc137d2
|
Will 'A Different Man' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
|
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards nominees are set to be announced on January 23.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "A Different Man" secures a nomination for the Academy Award for Best Picture. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no nominees are declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If this film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-17T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-a-different-man-be-nominated-for-oscar-for-best-picture
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe13c2ec90aaa20bf0a2aa70c54accdf26567c769b135c35af3c439127e9e010b
|
0x1377de0d303646166055843696a5555d2a7ca1bf9c0d5cc8a0228dc98b2dc6a0
|
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
|
The 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship is scheduled to take place December 30 - December 31. You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-fide-world-blitz-chess-championships
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa wins the 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this person to win this tournament (e.g. they are eliminated in the bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If this event is cancelled, or not completed by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-rameshbabu-praggnanandhaa-win-the-2024-world-blitz-championship
|
[
"Sports",
"Esports",
"Chess",
"Tournaments",
"FIDE",
"Magnus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc0236664a43f217d070f7fbc9282ad6622aecaf3bbaa7c954c00442ee4559a63
|
0xadde598dced41995a4f96f5c8602608514539ac4467d623ed9f280bcf7c2f9cd
|
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31?
|
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Ethereum (ETHUSDT) between December 12, 2024, 16:00 and March 31, 2025, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price of $8,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETHUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETHUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-ethereum-hit-8000pt00-by-march-31
|
[
"Crypto",
"Ethereum",
"Crypto Prices"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x80e69060dfe8db96537cbd90cbcf38b98e84bc82ee9bf98400022bfdc533b603
|
0x1414b0cce66b440db90604d5174bd2d88ed199c37c3d35b40a99a07fc098da7d
|
Will US annual inflation be 2.9% or greater in December?
|
This is a market about inflation over the 12 month period ending December 2024 before seasonal adjustment as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by 2.9 percent or greater over the 12 month period ending December 2024 and “No“ otherwise.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS December 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on January 15, 2025, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
----
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
|
2025-01-15T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-us-annual-inflation-be-2pt9-or-greater-in-december
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"Inflation",
"bls",
"Macro Inflation"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xe13c2ec90aaa20bf0a2aa70c54accdf26567c769b135c35af3c439127e9e0103
|
0x61c3730cd90257102cb1faeaf48337561e88c7a61bb3f90723ad69ffeb14c63f
|
Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
|
The 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship is scheduled to take place December 30 - December 31. You can read more about this event here: https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-fide-world-blitz-chess-championships
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alireza Firouzja wins the 2024 Open FIDE World Blitz Chess Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for this person to win this tournament (e.g. they are eliminated in the bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".
If this event is cancelled, or not completed by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of other credible sources may be used.
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-alireza-firouzja-win-the-2024-world-blitz-championship
|
[
"Sports",
"Esports",
"Chess",
"Tournaments",
"FIDE",
"Magnus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xcfc1e7e29a21f8b364cb3d4c68a784ac4c76e659145c3caeafa809668592d802
|
0x19ceaa8e4dc8e9146fd9a82dda67a11c3fbfde4425e699ee46362a3ced83ab87
|
Will Alexander Khabnyak win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election?
|
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Belarus on January 26, 2025. If no candidate achieves a majority, a second round of elections will be scheduled between the top two candidates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alexander Khabnyak wins this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Belarusian Government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Цэнтральная выбарчая камісія Беларусі, CEC) (https://www.rec.gov.by/en/).
|
2025-01-26T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-alexander-khabnyak-win-the-2025-belarus-presidential-election
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"World Elections",
"belarus"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x457d4d4a78b57dc84631ac5cbe9f7a541334169b14bea2c8524964b79284807c
|
0xef3989beb0306a80365e2a9c5290629a74605f6f0659cd7f0a3b4842bf41516e
|
Will 'Gladiator 2' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?
|
The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Scientists (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. In 2025 the 97th Academy Awards nominees are set to be announced on January 23.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Gladiator 2" secures a nomination for the Academy Award for Best Picture. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no nominees are declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If this film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g. https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-17T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-gladiator-2-be-nominated-for-oscar-for-best-picture
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xbc21401466836b0b47d3695a995c505f8ab073596cc489bf2ea375f88da6cc03
|
0xf7050a33a8444389ef1800e4476b43a987ff72668be0b616a4b457f5ba944a00
|
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
|
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if following the Federal Reserve's March 2025 meeting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased by 1 or more basis points above the level it was prior to the meeting. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 18 - 19, 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
|
2025-03-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
fed-increases-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-march-2025-meeting
|
[
"Politics",
"finance",
"Fed Rates",
"Economy",
"Macro Fed",
"Recurring",
"Economic Policy"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xed40dad954097f133acf2af82fe94240377c70158d59f17f83176e83edd43672
|
0x125098fe46aa9aea63a49a4428b960129f9246f97e8b013d1bdc65072f0c65d2
|
Honda and Nissan merger announced before February?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Nissan Motor will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Honda Motor, or vice versa, by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement by Nissan or Honda will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Nissan or Honda, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-honda-and-nissan-merge
|
[
"Business",
"tesla",
"cars",
"EV",
"Japan"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc15260c4117b12e101526e9af84ebfa81232c758da50472cae26fe0fa3790604
|
0x67a5d3f6392e03761c6bbd730a2d37b11516b60c3667051a20822ec7b7df1e75
|
Will between 160 and 169 Democratic congressmen vote for funding bill?
|
A continuing resolution (CR) is under ongoing consideration by the US House. The passage of this resolution would avert a government shutdown. You can read more about it here: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/18/congress/congress-pay-raise-increase-00195089).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 160 (inclusive) and 169 (inclusive) House Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill (e.g., Continuing Resolution or omnibus spending bill) the first time it comes up for a vote in the US House of Representatives. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no vote takes place on a next government funding bill by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based solely on the first vote for the next government funding bill, regardless of whether it passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-between-160-and-169-democratic-congressmen-vote-for-funding-bill
|
[
"Politics",
"us government",
"Gov Shutdown"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x4962b86501c336a82f93638056f8a08a2154964935cc082e0d854cace0d47f01
|
0xc70df3aba401a9b71c3d8db01a5f58de9e223f14d051bd969de782d799431589
|
Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?
|
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards is scheduled for January 5, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Angelina Jolie wins the Golden Globe for Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the actress whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Golden Globes, including data from their website (e.g. https://goldenglobes.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-angelina-jolie-win-the-golden-globe-for-best-actress-in-a-movie-drama
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture",
"Golden Globes"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xbebd3ec79ce8a83d65bbb48ef3709dc2528dddbee3b4cf27d4b00c4bce3abc04
|
0x4de7c3750fc75dadc07d99af2437e6c40c0538458b1925063b9c70235b1a4a32
|
Will 'Challengers' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?
|
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards is scheduled for January 5, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross wins the Golden Globe for Best Original Score - Motion Picture for 'Challengers'. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the individual whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. If two people are listed under one title, the last name of the first person listed will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Golden Globes, including data from their website (e.g. https://goldenglobes.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-challengers-win-the-golden-globe-for-best-original-score
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture",
"Golden Globes"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x55a5e7cd2f1503a5d65f19ef12332a4b7fd37d1b692f4f9973455d20aa71659a
|
0x61e365a3f0e53df7c40f3c5ca6ac09042bc6ede1e98c02e36b6daa6dc50dc1c1
|
Bulls vs. Hawks
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 26 at 7:30PM ET:
If the Chicago Bulls win, the market will resolve to “Bulls”.
If the Atlanta Hawks win, the market will resolve to “Hawks”.
If the game is not completed by January 2, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-03T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-chi-atl-2024-12-26
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0xf394e26f982f55fdecd7a2a3ca92c0ebe467b25e53ab9cff5e840d3003207807
|
0x175d4b07e0a9da41bfeaaa970818fc1a6a66f4159b9ee635857f494273ae4b78
|
Lakers vs. Warriors
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 25 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Los Angeles Lakers win, the market will resolve to “Lakers”.
If the Golden State Warriors win, the market will resolve to “Warriors”.
If the game is not completed by January 1, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-02T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-lal-gsw-2024-12-25
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0x15469f45a589522616fa38a4da663e91275d4888b3e9ac45243d12b1c981010e
|
0x8ade29110e8369c3494846eb05ba73eea6164c9a186fbc37d95e8338d1b8e7d8
|
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazers
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 28 at 10:00PM ET:
If the Dallas Mavericks win, the market will resolve to “Mavericks”.
If the Portland Trail Blazers win, the market will resolve to “Trail Blazers”.
If the game is not completed by January 4, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-dal-por-2024-12-28
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0xbce83351655c42a590842c4bd8358c9f94ad9a712dc225710074023928bb8d14
|
0x26af267d671532b83ffb5779f5a62d3ce21590d1220ad5649528063a9599164f
|
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are engaged to be married by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it is announced that Swift and Kelce have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Taylor Swift and/or Travis Kelce or one of their official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
taylor-swift-and-travis-kelce-engaged-before-april
|
[
"Celebrities",
"Taylor Swift",
"Culture"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x7cc5baab5e0b61b1202c5f83f4c09b86d9c6e6d51f7280f061741f6759fdacdf
|
0x4e20b0bcb55fc96d456691eb1dbf7ebe551d3fc8bccca68b97481ac095a8ad39
|
Spurs vs. Nets
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 27 at 7:30PM ET:
If the San Antonio Spurs win, the market will resolve to “Spurs”.
If the Brooklyn Nets win, the market will resolve to “Nets”.
If the game is not completed by January 3, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-04T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-sas-bkn-2024-12-27
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0xcf121c870a53a33a88edc1526ec28797cf017327706f3363dcbc53ec4c505500
|
0x2a0dfcba4bf202737819f15d1a938c875c0b45019a822c4ea146233a8a124b27
|
Will less than 10 Republicans vote in favor of government funding bill?
|
A continuing resolution (CR) is under ongoing consideration by the US House. The passage of this resolution would avert a government shutdown. You can read more about it here: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/18/congress/congress-pay-raise-increase-00195089).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if less than 10 House Republicans vote in favor of the next government funding bill (e.g., Continuing Resolution or omnibus spending bill) the first time it comes up for a vote in the US House of Representatives. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no vote takes place on a next government funding bill by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
This market will resolve based solely on the first vote for the next government funding bill, regardless of whether it passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-less-than-10-republicans-vote-in-favor-of-government-funding-bill
|
[
"Politics",
"Gov Shutdown"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xfb9d34aee43b53e8d1078c934d4c3f918f02f1ddb8ab0398007806c7eac51437
|
0xf8289c00326d355cefee417e4486b9744e9421d75f9f2ca23879b47028133a49
|
Dern vs. Ribas
|
This is a market on whether Mackenzie Dern or Amanda Ribas will win their bout at UFC Fight Night scheduled for January 11, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
If Mackenzie Dern is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Dern.”
If Amanda Ribas is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Ribas.”
If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 25, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
The Resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/mma/fightcenter/_/id/600051441/league/ufc), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
|
2025-01-11T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
dern-vs-ribas
|
[
"Sports",
"UFC",
"mma",
"Fight Night",
"Mackenzie Dern",
"Amanda Ribas"
] | false
| null | null |
0xcc6f94171a7c8e9fe1ac0e2b5b6c721b227e0f91fc07a05fdab651a1d69f5d35
|
0x50cb58c6bf402417bf2181d58cce2fc0a5f39a3db96ea5b160078eb955a8aba1
|
Will Tennessee make the CFP National Championship Game?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Tennessee Volunteers reach the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
If it becomes impossible for the Tennessee Volunteers to make the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be the NCAA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-tennessee-make-the-cfp-national-championship-game
|
[
"Sports",
"CFB",
"CFP"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xb7eb6095723bda1ae492041f48ae9619b241dbc44abb2947e79a1ee6ae242205
|
0xd68f141aff610df79e579ad93c223cd1771d69ab0a42d33ce5013bbbe7a43934
|
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative für Deutschland) wins over 30% of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-afd-win-over-30-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xbebd3ec79ce8a83d65bbb48ef3709dc2528dddbee3b4cf27d4b00c4bce3abc02
|
0x3a825bf4ae825f6b418ec1e884c0bf28840b34d1485be0535e9e2a0d5ec019ff
|
Will 'The Wild Robot' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Score?
|
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards is scheduled for January 5, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kris Bowers wins the Golden Globe for Best Original Score - Motion Picture for 'The Wild Robot'. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the individual whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. If two people are listed under one title, the last name of the first person listed will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Golden Globes, including data from their website (e.g. https://goldenglobes.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-wild-robot-win-the-golden-globe-for-best-original-score
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture",
"Golden Globes"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x41b3671004d8ad634dd22f02ad0d60c0d0c34c9dc9da8bb70ad99b560a5a7ecd
|
0xa2c64e93feec7f6622a58323938cb015fa3f0ddb579c788c08c8c2491428e502
|
Spurs vs. Knicks
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 25 at 12:00PM ET:
If the San Antonio Spurs win, the market will resolve to “Spurs”.
If the New York Knicks win, the market will resolve to “Knicks”.
If the game is not completed by January 1, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-sas-nyk-2024-12-25
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0x9752c4fe5936ceaf6b328637982d843467d84c788737a121841171d285d54d00
|
0x2af2dfa9972db569bce25abdcd1d3dcc3434797fc3c9008087244a5b6275a25a
|
Will 'Emilia Pérez' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay?
|
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards is scheduled for January 5, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jacques Audiard wins the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay - Motion Picture for 'Emilia Pérez'. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the individual whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. If two people are listed under one title, the last name of the first person listed will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Golden Globes, including data from their website (e.g. https://goldenglobes.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-emilia-perez-win-the-golden-globe-for-best-screenplay
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture",
"Golden Globes"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x30cefad8fa0b67d7328436ae1c606155c4ff61cecf128e2c0518b7169cdb1203
|
0xdacc54f636286428ef9b76b151e9c4441a147231fd7dc970a12b19d1ca520b8d
|
Will Brentford win the 2024 Carabao Cup?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Brentford win the 2024 Carabao Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win this tournament based on the rules of the Carabao Cup (e.g. they don’t advance to the final round), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the EFL, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-03-17T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-brentford-win-the-2024-carabao-cup
|
[
"Sports",
"EPL",
"manchester united",
"arsenal",
"Soccer",
"Liverpool",
"Tottenham",
"Carabao Cup",
"Southampton",
"Brentford",
"Crystal Palace",
"newcastle"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x066942d4b5a8a8af2d96b7dfb73340732d0d9e6e517d63fc7114da8e503c9ef7
|
0x0e98031c9ebfeb48d63485c2f68515e41c01fa7a282672a413091bd0d0b5f338
|
Curtis vs. Kopylov
|
This is a market on whether Chris Curtis or Roman Kopylov will win their bout at UFC Fight Night scheduled for January 11, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
If Chris Curtis is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Curtis.”
If Roman Kopylov is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Kopylov.”
If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 25, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
The Resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/mma/fightcenter/_/id/600051441/league/ufc), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
|
2025-01-11T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
curtis-vs-kopylov
|
[
"Sports",
"UFC",
"mma",
"Fight Night",
"Mackenzie Dern",
"Amanda Ribas"
] | false
| null | null |
0x9752c4fe5936ceaf6b328637982d843467d84c788737a121841171d285d54d02
|
0x761662da4d04f098f1e8c92707bdb4cb06916badbb8609200a9da1d749d80668
|
Will 'The Brutalist' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay?
|
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards is scheduled for January 5, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold wins the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay - Motion Picture for 'The Brutalist'. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the individual whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. If two people are listed under one title, the last name of the first person listed will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Golden Globes, including data from their website (e.g. https://goldenglobes.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-brutalist-win-the-golden-globe-for-best-screenplay
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture",
"Golden Globes"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x2030b239e21c3db5799a0da7392e94c263a7d2a6abe4b95fe720acb6ac03ff04
|
0x9b063963d2ae120f91dff588f763050c4eef52d5892370da38da7f22d524ecbb
|
Will Bobby Portis win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bobby Portis is awarded the 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year Award. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If Bobby Portis is not announced as a finalist for the 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year Award, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-05-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bobby-portis-win-2024-25-nba-6th-man-of-the-year
|
[
"Sports",
"Awards",
"futures",
"NBA"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x7be8225485148affd09d6fbfa39bcbd649657ecc0d7d72c389a6d4e5f842ca02
|
0xe1aaecf13ff5e25332f4b5bf9a6109724722d54c1e43462ad3cc962d373b27e4
|
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robert Habeck is the next Chancellor of Germany following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any interim/caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Chancellor of Germany is announced by June 30, of 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-robert-habeck-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"German Politics",
"German Election",
"World"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xe51572812c4516478fc8ded750abb40ea740e08b9f7344637578fb3410b6f594
|
0xd066307810a7a52dc0d17b47162b8f0d4d1faf732c026baf57108b70e9c11610
|
Nuggets vs. Suns
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 25 at 10:30PM ET:
If the Denver Nuggets win, the market will resolve to “Nuggets”.
If the Phoenix Suns win, the market will resolve to “Suns”.
If the game is not completed by January 1, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-02T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-den-phx-2024-12-25
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0x7be8225485148affd09d6fbfa39bcbd649657ecc0d7d72c389a6d4e5f842ca03
|
0x027fb2d0015f7fbae58491502e906948373c88cd49dc90f0d36c1e692644e42e
|
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Olaf Scholz is the next Chancellor of Germany following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any interim/caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Chancellor of Germany is announced by June 30, of 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-olaf-scholz-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"German Politics",
"German Election",
"World"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xa7f2c639af84b7c204a1c45883a2b99a40ff20cbd6c9a4dcbf9748301646c103
|
0xa71e9fe445379ccfc4404edc5c215e4c9ab4175ef439b746fcb50b5910ccdde6
|
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins between 30% (inclusive) and 35% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-cducsu-win-30-35-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc15260c4117b12e101526e9af84ebfa81232c758da50472cae26fe0fa3790601
|
0x1b701c4f520c9cd244ba1782abd4f97898a54899efa0b9d311b0e43c3b72b111
|
Will between 190 and 199 Democratic congressmen vote for funding bill?
|
A continuing resolution (CR) is under ongoing consideration by the US House. The passage of this resolution would avert a government shutdown. You can read more about it here: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/12/18/congress/congress-pay-raise-increase-00195089).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if between 190 (inclusive) and 199 (inclusive) House Democrats vote in favor of the next government funding bill (e.g., Continuing Resolution or omnibus spending bill) the first time it comes up for a vote in the US House of Representatives. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no vote takes place on a next government funding bill by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based solely on the first vote for the next government funding bill, regardless of whether it passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-between-190-and-199-democratic-congressmen-vote-for-funding-bill
|
[
"Politics",
"us government",
"Gov Shutdown"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xac5e5dda59d240a6566f96afcd61e256900034ddbe22761e309596c31b74c08c
|
0xa9f5438247f7bcfaffefe0831075ff1a16d19c73380cf89895f8d3cd1814d316
|
Will Ohio State make the CFP National Championship Game?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if THE Ohio State Buckeyes reach the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
If it becomes impossible for THE Ohio State Buckeyes to make the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be the NCAA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-ohio-state-make-the-cfp-national-championship-game
|
[
"Sports",
"CFB",
"CFP"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xdeb68ecb6ddc31ba90d9965fd500315d2563ea5f4930cdbee60051b7a10e8704
|
0x00fe5e24e1834a4bd5d59bae32530eb6c158ed4c0898c4aaf95b488ca94dafca
|
Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the SPD (Social Democratic Party, Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) wins between 25% (inclusive) and 30% (inclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-spd-win-25-30-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xab4a49c5772f6d0fbc5b8a0523624f091f98bc2f56150769fa1ff6e2a32dece4
|
0x7ff90b0fe9e513a46a254c9215c8e0682fa66b67ac6a17587ce281fcf1e7296e
|
Ponzinibbio vs. Harris
|
This is a market on whether Santiago Ponzinibbio or Carlston Harris will win their bout at UFC Fight Night scheduled for January 11, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.
If Santiago Ponzinibbio is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Ponzinibbio.”
If Carlston Harris is declared the winner of this bout, this market will resolve to “Harris.”
If this fight is declared a draw, or if for any reason the match is not scored, postponed after January 25, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled, this market will resolve 50-50.
The Resolution source will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/mma/fightcenter/_/id/600051441/league/ufc), however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
|
2025-01-11T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
ponzinibbio-vs-harris
|
[
"Sports",
"UFC",
"mma",
"Fight Night",
"Mackenzie Dern",
"Amanda Ribas"
] | false
| null | null |
0xf1304c272194cf4c45e54a7620d1452bcb7152f2eb500501bd9de85c347ed800
|
0xbc15fb0d41203120dbad5b2db8ca515f2e3072c3dfb045562bbec2086703ae04
|
Will 'Black Myth: Wukong' win Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards?
|
The winners of the Steam Award for 2024 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on December 31, 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'Black Myth: Wukong' wins Game of the Year in the 2024 Steam Awards. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-black-myth-wukong-win-game-of-the-year-in-the-2024-steam-awards
|
[
"video games",
"Awards",
"Esports",
"Culture",
"Tech",
"Steam",
"Valve"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xdeb68ecb6ddc31ba90d9965fd500315d2563ea5f4930cdbee60051b7a10e8703
|
0xe757b6797d77a6fcf69a2f749fd6601bd0456135aaff422af9a2a8b3cd3f1af9
|
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the SPD (Social Democratic Party, Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands) wins between 20% (inclusive) and 25% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-spd-win-20-25-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x1b560d0ae668d60d13abf4c2edea4fa025c672cadbf05a45c6c44ebb8b821d02
|
0xaf42e755714e5c5f5a2120efcb19b39c8630dd91ce0143d67ac62bdde6a5d8da
|
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 25 at 2:30PM ET:
If the Minnesota Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to “Timberwolves”.
If the Dallas Mavericks win, the market will resolve to “Mavericks”.
If the game is not completed by January 1, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-min-dal-2024-12-25
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0x7be8225485148affd09d6fbfa39bcbd649657ecc0d7d72c389a6d4e5f842ca06
|
0x6edda3512ecf43002ea175e0af667868979a83994111a6103d845b4df5f88ba6
|
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Heidi Reichinnek is the next Chancellor of Germany following the election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any interim/caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no next Chancellor of Germany is announced by June 30, of 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-heidi-reichinnek-be-the-next-chancellor-of-germany
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"German Politics",
"German Election",
"World"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x0e41960195880bcea1e5ac7057e15468d060aae617e03c2e990a2b80c7379b23
|
0x2525dfdd231169ed70088da9649041546c44fa1004fcbee1128334bff8f3edfd
|
Trudeau resigns before February?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between December 16, 2024 and January 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
trudeau-resigns-before-february
|
[
"Politics",
"Trump",
"Canada",
"Trudeau out"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x5912e95c019d2f7773f9aba2f1150df128bec8e79a276d717d2eed45aaa94f94
|
0x4a740f5ca5d18ea26298cef319ffbe7c7b65c650dcfd63fdc3b593f1fb4a0891
|
Timberwolves vs. Rockets
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 27 at 8:00PM ET:
If the Minnesota Timberwolves win, the market will resolve to “Timberwolves”.
If the Houston Rockets win, the market will resolve to “Rockets”.
If the game is not completed by January 3, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-04T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-min-hou-2024-12-27
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0x4bf508186814c3afa35284820d654e8c1ab4ef1d95015a1878aa94f60bb511f0
|
0xa24190d84942d3b087e094da92f465044c3b9f8c0ea4414f6936e6479833be69
|
Jonathan Anderson joins Dior creative director before February?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jonathan Anderson is officially announced as the creative director for Dior by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
An announcement by Dior will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether Anderson actually joins as creative director.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from Dior, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
jonathan-anderson-joins-dior-creative-director-before-february
|
[
"Culture",
"Creators",
"Fashion",
"mmERCH"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x33d39c22086537937f3e409f0f846d8aaa11c916c037e2364228e2ac48b35194
|
0x47531c9032a272679648284fdf10a47ee52da16ce2525c6a925962e0693b21c6
|
Trudeau out before April?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between December 15, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
trudeau-out-before-april
|
[
"Politics",
"trudeau",
"Canada",
"Trudeau out"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x1af13caa6273080f48891e6e83050af1d06aa8fc8edc1531d3435f80844f8e7a
|
0x535d77d17a5596352b784385032dca438a9155f7ce06b5aa2728181a3c35afe0
|
Will Arizona State make the CFP National Championship Game?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Arizona State Sun Devils reach the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
If it becomes impossible for the Arizona State Sun Devils to make the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be the NCAA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-arizona-state-make-the-cfp-national-championship-game
|
[
"Sports",
"CFB",
"CFP"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xa3ef93dad3269e32d6553f3ef3cc104e92b9313519a4e86f5cc135223cccd3de
|
0x8a0c74eae24c6648f7f76ac44241f13f7876dbd5926b0e512e6f4af5b3a9da1a
|
Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?
|
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says "inflation" 40 or more times during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will count as long as "inflation" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to increases in costs of goods and services.
If no such statement happens by February 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
|
2025-01-29T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-powell-say-inflation-40-or-more-times-during-january-press-conference
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"Fed Rates",
"Economy",
"Mentions",
"jpow",
"Jerome Powell"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0xb7eb6095723bda1ae492041f48ae9619b241dbc44abb2947e79a1ee6ae242204
|
0xaf1a2b4ccf8b92efc3710b5d3bb263aa28c9ecf4858abb6c73047c1c0d7b9416
|
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative für Deutschland) wins between 25% (inclusive) and 30% (inclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-afd-win-25-30-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xbdb1dedb3444c3ff2df23c8877ff211c7c4ff8b288626bbae1c6a4a057c8d6f3
|
0x11a4baf2a368331f5c30e2528ff9efe911946d901e9589f653ddbab6b9f29aba
|
Will Powell say "growth" 8 or more times during January press conference?
|
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says "growth" 8 or more times during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will count as long as "growth" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to in production, income, and overall economic activity.
If no such statement happens by February 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
|
2025-01-29T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-powell-say-growth-8-or-more-times-during-january-press-conference
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"Fed Rates",
"Economy",
"Mentions",
"jpow",
"Jerome Powell"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xb44c2aa523f0fb50347a0bc70407ff2daf3fb8195be250af469952744f3ef5bf
|
0x0f142523513ed2d65a17d73fb08fec2b07bfc3e35d6fc948fd4f7aa2376d3cb1
|
Will SMU make the CFP National Championship Game?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the SMU Mustangs reach the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
If it becomes impossible for the SMU Mustangs to make the 2024-25 CFP National Championship Game, this market will immediately resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market will be the NCAA, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-smu-make-the-cfp-national-championship-game
|
[
"Sports",
"CFB",
"CFP"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x4c34cfe865484eecd1d96638d5ee9226969a6f63db0f537adb142e260680afd9
|
0x0e09add442dbb6bcbf19a5dc637f9e36eaa9f00d3d941b2c84f1c6474bc5eefb
|
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk attends the presidential inauguration currently scheduled for January 20, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attending the inauguration is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the ceremony.
The primary resolution source for this market will be video and photographic evidence, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-01-20T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-elon-musk-attend-presidential-inauguration
|
[
"Politics",
"Trump",
"US Election",
"Trump Presidency",
"Inauguration"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x546a2c9757d021da684152610e7495d8d2c0ee977198199ae3e89bdda830b0c0
|
0x19f0ff3845b991bf9561aa81f7a23d88a607a437a6ecaebdf117ef8e37e7d0df
|
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alliance 90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) wins over 15% of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-greens-win-over-15-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"German Election",
"Grünen",
"Alliance 90"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xb7eb6095723bda1ae492041f48ae9619b241dbc44abb2947e79a1ee6ae242203
|
0x546ec332d630a9cd6f2d93d132d2f38b860dd54d682213bb84fd45938e56b292
|
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD, Alternative für Deutschland) wins between 20% (inclusive) and 25% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-afd-win-20-25-of-the-vote-in-the-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x307e24aca797acccdb07a313ac08c8e86fe579c160a6e4df8774bcb35f3f3c03
|
0x1eaf199539629acaedafc165a72d556757babf5f896bd1fce1c9b2247e9f94fc
|
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alliance 90/The Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen) wins the second most seats of any party in the Bundestag (Germany's lower house) as a result of the next German parliamentary election.
If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".
In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the second most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the final total number of seats won by each party, including any overhang mandates (Überhangmandate) and balancing mandates (Ausgleichsmandate), as reflected in the official results.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
Note: The CDU and CSU will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market.
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-greens-win-the-second-most-seats-in-the-next-german-election
|
[
"Politics",
"Global Elections",
"German Election"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xf75e1e5a5f2e7ab0878d9f6168a903e75fb84196dcef46662b8476a7a0933194
|
0x56188fa55d37270dcda91fe9136316026dca52aa0352e16114ba5899162536a1
|
Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as head of the Liberal Party of Canada or otherwise ceases to be head of the Liberal Party of Canada for any length of time between December 15, 2024 and March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains on in this position to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the Liberal Party of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2025-03-31T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
justin-trudeau-out-as-leader-of-liberals-before-april
|
[
"Politics",
"trudeau",
"Canada",
"Trudeau out"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x4962b86501c336a82f93638056f8a08a2154964935cc082e0d854cace0d47f02
|
0x7031a7f65a72585b0951f0c8f4d0d18b9f6ff8e95e51df4898b9aed356bc74bd
|
Will Nicole Kidman win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?
|
The 82nd Golden Globe Awards is scheduled for January 5, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicole Kidman wins the Golden Globe for Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason no winner is declared by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the actress whose last name comes first in alphabetical order.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Golden Globes, including data from their website (e.g. https://goldenglobes.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-nicole-kidman-win-the-golden-globe-for-best-actress-in-a-movie-drama
|
[
"Awards",
"Movies",
"Culture",
"Golden Globes"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xdbd7931ad72642ced9ef45f24df141dec04951039bc96eff1bb85406f03a82b2
|
0x4cfe8afc969fc85f4aa92ef01e8c82b84f773ea1cdf198d694ef9da1155393eb
|
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump between December 19, 2024, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Putin and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
|
2025-04-29T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-putin-meet-with-trump-by-first-100-days
|
[
"Politics",
"russia",
"Ukraine",
"Trump",
"U.S. Politics",
"putin",
"Geopolitics",
"Creators",
"Trump Presidency",
"Open Source Intel",
"Trump 100 Days",
"Foreign Policy",
"First 100 days",
"World"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x30cefad8fa0b67d7328436ae1c606155c4ff61cecf128e2c0518b7169cdb1206
|
0x34295c16ef1e45b468381a9aa35676b0f4cc29e80b36b80fdb1f3163f522b33d
|
Will Liverpool win the 2024 Carabao Cup?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Liverpool win the 2024-2025 Carabao Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win this tournament based on the rules of the Carabao Cup (e.g. they don’t advance to the final round), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the EFL, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2025-03-17T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-liverpool-win-the-2024-carabao-cup
|
[
"Sports",
"EPL",
"manchester united",
"arsenal",
"Soccer",
"Liverpool",
"Tottenham",
"Carabao Cup",
"Southampton",
"Brentford",
"Crystal Palace",
"newcastle"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0x962787a4213337def655d78d0876b383bc2538a663a769b80beafe2e3fac2174
|
0x2cf7f947e9eee05b06cb80cf696d3b4b8174f5731c53400ac062d4c2369b6742
|
Knicks vs. Wizards
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 28 at 7:00PM ET:
If the New York Knicks win, the market will resolve to “Knicks”.
If the Washington Wizards win, the market will resolve to “Wizards”.
If the game is not completed by January 4, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-05T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-nyk-was-2024-12-28
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0xe9ab285a6b8df2bd650fb166571fde65ae6ff015f05bb432b3175da9fd3f265b
|
0x340f7bd132b86314aa2f0c621d9b6b883ee8ee1c6698ef2710753a9e41bb3902
|
Pistons vs. Kings
|
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for December 26 at 10:00PM ET:
If the Detroit Pistons win, the market will resolve to “Pistons”.
If the Sacramento Kings win, the market will resolve to “Kings”.
If the game is not completed by January 2, 2025 (11:59 PM ET) or it ends in a tie, the market will resolve 50-50.
|
2025-01-03T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
nba-det-sac-2024-12-26
|
[
"Sports",
"NBA",
"Games"
] | false
| null | null |
0xa93d76749e48bf3fbd41a792500388e3539143153bb3c110d725623f00c4c7bf
|
0x1550c4d1f797a426d64660891c775a3664bc41c0b71cc5b0afe5586af1ee359d
|
Will Bournemouth finish in the top 4 of EPL?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bournemouth finishes in the top 4 of the 2024-25 Premier League season. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
If it becomes mathematically certain that Bournemouth will finish in the top 4, this market will immediately resolve to “Yes.” Likewise, if it becomes mathematically impossible for Bournemouth to finish in the top 4, this market will immediately resolve to “No.” Potential retroactive points deductions past these points will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
|
2025-05-25T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-bournemouth-finish-in-the-top-4-of-epl
|
[
"Sports",
"Premier League",
"EPL",
"England",
"Soccer",
"english"
] | false
| 0
| 1
|
0xc269224d2cd54f86d34f48b2bf013f103cbf9c48811ffdf4bf40a220697a28ad
|
0xb4c5c1570d0c8870c9c0040dc3d7640f19765bc5e77af2dcf30736925ef2f9e5
|
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
|
German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to tale place February 23, 2025.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Left (Die Linke) makes it into the Bundestag as a parliamentary group (Fraktion) as a result of the 2025 German Parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If voting in the next German parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2025, this market will resolve to "No".
Under current German parliamentary law, “a parliamentary group [fraktion] can be formed by at least five percent of the members of the Bundestag who belong to the same party” (see: https://www.bundestag.de/services/glossar/glossar/F/fraktionen-444784).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/).
|
2025-02-23T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-the-left-make-it-into-the-bundestag-as-a-fraktion
|
[
"Politics",
"German Election",
"Die Linke"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
0x8ea6608673a308944b5c55ab64c362838c3f65a9df38f12e283937f7ccc74501
|
0xdcc0a36475281e6bae04c07ef6eb210c3f0fcd18bc1263360876b36d6dd281ba
|
Next Israel x Hamas ceasefire in February?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually upon agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas begins between February 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET, and February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming that both parties have agreed to a ceasefire.
|
2025-02-28T00:00:00Z
| false
| false
|
next-israel-x-hamas-ceasefire-in-february
|
[
"Politics",
"news",
"Gaza",
"war",
"hamas",
"Middle East",
"Israel",
"palestine",
"Geopolitics"
] | false
| 0.115
| 0.885
|
0x9a81238174431ede6da1c8ea71a6ae08b64fec7f2443a38027b6e6551b564d6a
|
0xee713b962d078edd60cc379ddeba60fb7762a95f667b3605b5eec187b638acf5
|
Will Powell say "tariff" during January press conference?
|
Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on January 29, 2025 at 2:00 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says "tariff" during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.
Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.
Compound words will count as long as "tariff" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to a tax or duty imposed by a government on imported goods.
If no such statement happens by February 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.
|
2025-01-29T00:00:00Z
| true
| true
|
will-powell-say-tariff-during-january-press-conference
|
[
"Politics",
"Business",
"Fed Rates",
"Economy",
"Mentions",
"jpow",
"Jerome Powell"
] | false
| 1
| 0
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.