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However, the choice between targeting and universalism is quintessentially a political economy problem: it involves the choice of instruments for redistributing resources in society and for determining levels of social expenditure.” The more people who benefit from a programme, the more popular it will be, as depicted in Figure 0-11. Universal programmes, which benefit all citizens, will generate more support than those that only affect a very small proportion of the population.
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Furthermore, the poor – and especially the ‘extreme poor’ – are politically weak and are not generally able to mobilise in support of the programmes that benefit them. Figure 0-11: Broader coverage equals broader support.
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Annex 5 107 African and white pensioners after apartheid, largely to solidify the black population’s links to the state; 261 and Bolivia’s universal pension helped to quell opposition to the partial privatization of the oil industry.262 However, not all social protection programmes are equal in their contributions to the social contract. From a political economy perspective, societal support for social protection depends largely on the degree to which the middle classes benefit from the system.
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Programmes aimed only at the poorest, who are politically weak, are unlikely to garner or sustain the support of middle classes and therefore are more vulnerable to shifting political and fiscal circumstances.263 On the other hand, programmes that are understood to be available to everyone based on common lifecycle contingencies, are more likely to have broad support and are therefore, from a systems perspective, both politically and financially more sustainable.264 Moreover, high-level decisions around the level of social protection investment and the design of core benefits can have a knock-on effect on people’s long-term expectations of the system.
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Indeed, certain types of benefits can undermine the social contract and erode faith in the system. Section 2.3265 of this report established that high-level policy design is the biggest determinant of whether those who are experiencing a contingency covered by social protection can expect to receive a benefit.
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Especially when universally designed, lifecycle benefits not only reach more people, including those classified as poor or living in vulnerable households, but are based on clear and transparent criteria.
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Whether citizens understand why they were excluded can influence their levels of trust in the system, and the literature suggests that programmes that base selection on PMTs or community-based targeting (CBT) are more likely to generate conflict and distrust.266 With respect to PMTs, in Georgia, for example, application rates for the poverty-targeted TSA are relatively high (around half the population), but large numbers of people who do not apply but are nevertheless vulnerable.267 The reasons people give for not applying for assistance reveal considerable pessimism about their likelihood of being selected.
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As shown in Figure 0-12, more than 70 per cent of respondents in the bottom two quintiles stated that they “did not hope to receive assistance” despite their clear perceived need.268 In Georgia, unlike in many low- and middle-income countries whose systems are dominated by small, poverty targeted schemes, a counter balance is provided through large state investment in lifecycle benefits, including universal old-age and disability pensions and increasing investment in child benefits.
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261 Leubolt (2014) 262 Müller (2009) 263 See, e.g. Mkandawire and Development (2005) 264 Kidd (2012) 265 See also Annex 3. 266 For a discussion of the drawbacks of CBT, see Chapter 3, case study on Kenya. 267 Baum et al. (2016) 268 See McClanahan (forthcoming) Annex 5 108 Figure 0-12: Reasons for not applying for assistance from the Social Services Agency, by quintile (2018), Georgia.
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Source: Based on analysis of the Integrated Household Survey 2018 Þ Therefore, building trust in the system depends first and foremost on high-level design decisions. Higher investment in lifecycle social protection is more likely to contribute to stronger social contracts than limited investment in a collection of poverty-targeted schemes.
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15 22 33 39 51 7 3 3 4 2 72 70 63 55 45 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Bottom 2nd 3rd 4th Top Percent distribution Quintiles of households, ranked by per capita consumption It’s difficult to answer Other I consider it being humiliating for family I can’t do it myself and there is nobody to whom I can address for help I don't hope to get the assistance I don't know where to apply
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Secretary-General’s Policy Brief Investing in Jobs and Social Protection for Poverty Eradication and a Sustainable Recovery 28 SEPTEMBER 2021 I. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................3 II. A RIGHTS-BASED APPROACH TO RECOVERY.............................................8 III.
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 NATIONAL STRATEGIES FOR A JOB-RICH RECOVERY, JUST TRANSITION AND UNIVERSAL SOCIAL PROTECTION......................9 Accelerating progress towards universal social protection systems. .................10 Creating jobs and promoting a just transition towards equitable, sustainable economies..........................................................................................13 Investing in children and youth through education and skills.
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.............................16 Digital technologies for a job-rich recovery..........................................................17 Sustainable enterprises for an inclusive recovery and just transition. ................18 Multilateral cooperation and public and private investments. .............................19 IV. THE GLOBAL ACCELERATOR FOR JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION.......23 V. CALL TO ACTION AND RECOMMENDATIONS.
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...........................................25 Contents INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 2 3 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY I.
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Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious glob- al public health and socioeconomic crisis the world has faced in the past century, exacerbating pre-existing and systemic inequalities and threat- ening the long-term livelihoods and well-being of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people.
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Recovery trends between advanced and devel- oping economies are deeply uneven, spurred by vast differences in access to vaccines, the fiscal capacity and ability of governments to respond, supply chain failures, a growing digital divide, the impacts of the growing complexity of conflict and displacement, and the threat of a looming debt crisis.
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This two-track recovery is now creating a great divergence, which, if not corrected, will un- dermine trust and solidarity and fuel conflict and forced migration, and make the world more vul- nerable to future crises, including climate change. In 2020, an estimated 8.8 per cent of total work- ing hours, equivalent to the hours worked in one year by 255 million full-time workers, were lost. This corresponds to a loss of US$ 3.7 trillion in labour income before government support.
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The crisis-induced jobs shortfall relative to pre-crisis trends is estimated to be 75 million in INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 4 2021 and 23 million in 2022.1 While the wealth of billionaires increased by over US$ 3.9 trillion be- tween March and December 2020, the impact of the pandemic on the world of work, among other factors, increased the number of extremely poor by between 119 and 124 million people — the first increase in poverty in over 21 years.2 The impacts of the pandemic on the world of work also disproportionately impacted the most vulnerable, especially women in the informal economy.
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Workers in the informal economy have been three times more likely to lose their jobs than those in formal employment arrangements, and have suffered from disproportionate decline in their income. Women’s employment declined by 5 per cent in 2020, compared with 3.9 per cent for men.
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Additionally, 90 per cent of women who lost their jobs in 2020 exited the labour force, often due to intensified care responsibilities.3 Around 435 million women and girls will be living on less than US$ 1.90 a day — including 47 mil- lion pushed into poverty as a result of COVID-19 by 2021.4 Children were also particularly impacted. As a result of COVID-19, the number of children living under a multidimensional measure of poverty soared to approximately 1.2 billion.
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This repre- sents a 15 per cent increase in the number of children living in deprivation in low and middle-in- come countries, or an additional 150 million chil- dren since the start of the pandemic.
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Child labour, which was already on the rise before COVID-19, is projected to increase by an additional 9 million to a total of 169 million children by the end of 2022, if current trends are not reversed.5 Children 1 International Labour Organization (ILO), World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2021, May 2021 2 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 3 ILO, World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2021, May 2021; Women, Whose time to care?
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Unpaid care and domestic work during COVID-19, 2020 4 UN-Women, From Insight to Action: Gender Equality in the Wake of COVID-19, 2020 5 United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), Press Release, 17 September 2020.
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The basis of the calculation is explained in a Technical Note; ILO and UNICEF, Child Labour: Global estimates 2020, trends and the road forward, 2021 6 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and UN-Women, COVID-19 Global Gender Response Tracker Factsheet, March 2021 7 UNDP, Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic, 2021; ILO, World Social Protection Report 2020-22: Social Protection at the Crossroads – in Pursuit of a Better Future, 2021 8 As defined in the ILO Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No.
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202) in fragile and humanitarian contexts, as well as those experiencing exclusion and discrimination due to gender, ethnicity, race, migration status or geographic location, suffer greater deprivation. In response to these impacts, governments across the world have marshalled social pro- tection programmes and labour market crisis response and stimulus packages to protect peo- ple’s health, jobs and incomes, and to ensure so- cial stability.
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There has been an unprecedented roll-out of approximately 1,700 social protection and labour market measures. But while these measures acted as important shock absorbers, they remained insufficient to mitigate the full impact of the crisis and were mostly implement- ed in advanced economies, leaving 53.1 per cent of the global population unprotected.
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Despite the blow that the crisis has dealt to women’s jobs and incomes, only 13 per cent of these measures were aimed at strengthening women’s econom- ic security and only 11 per cent provided sup- port in the face of rising unpaid care demands.6 Additionally, in many countries, social protection measures, including income support, have been temporary or ad-hoc in nature, and now risk being rolled-back despite their positive impact on pov- erty mitigation.7 The pandemic caused the financing gap for social protection to widen by approximately 30 per cent.
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To guarantee at least a basic level of social security through nationally defined social protection floors,8 lower-middle-income countries would need to invest an additional US$ 362.9 bil- lion annually, and upper-middle-income countries a further US$ 750.8 billion annually, equivalent 5 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY for a human-centred recovery and just transition INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION for Poverty Eradication and a Sustainable Recovery Investing in systems to achieve universal social protection has never been more urgent to avert long-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis IN SOCIAL PROTECTION 4.14 BILLION 53.1% 50% of the global population Coverage Gaps Individuals are unprotected by any social protection measures this amounts to Retail (USD) The unprecedented expansion of social protection measures during the crisis demonstrates their critical role in promoting a swift and inclusive recovery however many measures are temporary, and most are concentrated in high or upper- middle income countries.
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1700 New Social Protection Measures in response to the COVID crisis... 497 million older persons 192.2 million persons with severe disabilities, Investment in social protection systems will help reduce poverty and strengthen resilience to future crises 133.6 million new mothers, 726.5 million children aged 0-5, Such investments would provide a basic level of income security to Additionally, it will provide 6.6 billion persons with access to essential health care services 1.2 Trillion dollars are needed, annually, to expand social protection floors for 145 low and middle-income countries INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 6 to 5.1 and 3.1 per cent of their GDP, respectively.
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Low-income countries would need to invest an additional US$ 77.9 billion annually, equivalent to 15.9 per cent of their GDP.9 The fiscal stimulus gap for economic and labour market recovery is also estimated at around US$ 982 billion in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (US$ 45 billion and US$ 937 billion, respectively).
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This gap represents the resources that these countries need to match the average level of stimulus relative to working-hour losses in high- income countries.10 The persistent and growing financing gap has been further exacerbated by uneven levels of pri- vate investments and declining trade within and between countries.
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Medium-sized, small and mi- cro-enterprises were 50 per cent more likely to be affected by the crisis than their larger coun- terparts.11 Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) de- clined by 42 per cent, remittances by 7 per cent12 and global trade by approximately 9 per cent in 2020, with trade in services decreasing a stagger- ing 16.5 per cent.13 These trends have placed even greater pressure on the fiscal capacity of developing countries, many already burdened by crippling debt, to roll out stimulus response measures.
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While the global fiscal response to the crisis amounted to US$ 16 trillion between March 2020 and March 202114, the distribution of this support has large- ly occurred in advanced economies with deep pockets, which were able to mobilize their social protection systems and labour market policies to support lives and livelihoods.
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Many develop- ing countries, however, who found themselves 9 ILO, World Social Protection Report 2020-22: Social Protection at the Crossroads – in Pursuit of a Better Future, 2021 10 ILO Monitor, COVID-19 and the World of Work, 6th Edition, September 2020 11 ILO, World Employment and Social Outlook – Trends 2021, May 2021 12 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Investment Trends Monitor, Jan 2021 13 UNCTAD, Global Trade Update, Feb 2021 14 IMF: Fiscal Monitor, April 2021 15 ILO Monitor, COVID-19 and the World of Work, 5th Edition, June 2020 16 UNCTAD, Global Trade Update, Feb 2021; UNCTAD, Investment Trends Monitor, Jan 2021 17 World Bank, Poverty and Shared Prosperity – Reversals of Fortunes, 2020 18 ILO, World Employment Social Outlook 2018: Greening with jobs 19 UN-Women, Beyond COVID-19: A Feminist Plan for Sustainability and Social Justice, Sep 2021 constrained by plunging revenues and rising debt burdens, were unable to mount a similar stimu- lus response.
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About 88 per cent of global gov- ernment spending to mitigate the effects of the crisis during the early phase of the pandemic has been in advanced economies.15 The average stimulus per capita spending in developed coun- tries was US$ 10.000 compared to US$ 20 per capita in LDCs in 2020.16 Climate change is likely to further compound these risks and intensify the instability of finan- cial systems, as natural disasters wipe out years of development progress, undermine global em- ployment, and add to national debt burdens.
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In addition to COVID, conflict and climate were the main drivers of increases in extreme poverty worldwide, including child poverty.17 Moreover, an estimated 1.2 billion jobs depend on the en- vironment — the equivalent of 40 per cent of the global labour force.18 To protect livelihoods and our planet, it is es- sential that climate action and decent work are pursued in tandem, by supporting a just transition that can help the world reach the 1.5-degree target pledged at the Paris Climate Summit, while creating millions of new and decent jobs in the growing net-zero economy.
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Further, to avoid the reproduction of gender segregation and inequalities in the world of work, social protection and labour market measures must be devised to ensure that women benefit from new green jobs.19 7 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY It is time to tackle these unprecedented challeng- es in solidarity to reverse our current trajectory.
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The Secretary-General’s call for a renewed Social Contract needs to be followed by action, built on trust, inclusion, protection and participation. It is important that we measure and value what matters to people and the planet, while bolster- ing the world’s resilience to future shocks. To achieve this, investments are needed that can create co-benefits while enhancing prepar- edness including in universal social protection, decent and green jobs and gender equal socie- ties.
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Indeed, estimates suggest that investments in governance, social protection, the green economy, and digitalization could lift 146 million people, including 74 million women and girls, out of poverty by 2030.20 These areas of priority require committed financing from all sources for the short, medium and long term.
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20 Secretary-General’s report “Our Common Agenda” (un.org) In May 2020, the Prime Minister of Canada, the Prime Minister of Jamaica, and the Secretary- General convened the Financing for Development in the Era of COVID-19 and Beyond Initiative (FfDI) to enable discussions on concrete financing solutions to the COVID-19 health and development emergency, as well as options to recover better and invest in a more sustainable and inclusive future.
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In previous Policy Briefs related to this Initiative, the Secretary-General called for action to ease the debt burden for developing countries, to create the necessary fiscal space to address the socioeconomic impact of the climate crisis, and to transform extractive industries for sustainable develop- ment. Many of the recommendations in this Policy Brief build on those that have preceded, while firmly bringing the complex dynamics of the financial and real economy together.
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INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 8 II.
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 A rights-based approach to recovery 21 Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), COVID-19 and its human rights dimensions, 2020; ILO, ILO Standards and COVID-19, version 2.1 The recommendations of this Policy Brief are grounded in human rights obligations, includ- ing international labour standards, and based on experiences from countries.21 Implementation of these norms, standards and obliga- tions would ensure decent work and effective access to social protection and social servic- es for all and contribute to the economic ad- vancement of all people, including children and their families, persons of working age and older persons, women, youth, persons with disabili- ties, migrants and refugees and others in vulner- able situations.
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Social dialogue is an important mechanism to build consensus on the ratifica- tion and implementation of these international standards, in particular as they relate to employ- ment, social protection and a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies at national levels. International standards can also guide in the design and implementation of national recov- ery policies, and the monitoring of the impact of financial and economic decisions on people at the local level.
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Member States should ratify and implement inter- national conventions, such as the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, the Convention on the Rights of the Child, the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; and international labour stand- ards and guidelines, including the International Labour Organization (ILO) Guidelines for a Just Transition towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All, which provides a policy framework and operational tools for pol- icy alignment on ambitious climate action with decent work creation and a just transition for all countries.
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Institutional investors and the pri- vate sector should also ensure that all operations are based on a human-rights based approach, including by adopting the Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. 9 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY III.
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 National strategies for a job- rich recovery, just transition and universal social protection A human-centred recovery from the crisis requires that employment and social protection policies work in tandem, not only to improve people’s living standards and reduce inequalities but also to empower people to navigate the challenges imposed by a rapidly changing world of work, and by the green and just transition required to meet the goal of net zero emissions by 2050.
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INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 10 Tackling economic insecurity and deep-rooted inequalities, including gender inequalities, as well as those further enhanced by poverty, climate and conflict, is indispensable to enable people and societies to adapt to change and strengthen their resilience to future shocks.
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Such an approach not only provides higher incomes for individuals, families and communities; it also contributes to productive employment, sustainable enterprises and increased national revenues, and is key to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This requires greater policy coherence at national and global levels, including sound macroeconomic, fiscal, and industrial policies that aim at investing in people, a just transition and sustainable development.
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ACCELERATING PROGRESS TOWARDS UNIVERSAL SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS Currently, only 46.9 per cent of the global popu- lation are effectively covered by at least one so- cial protection benefit, while the remaining 53.1 per cent – as many as 4.14 billion people – are left unprotected.22 The crisis has also put a spot- light on the fragility of care arrangements, includ- ing their over-reliance on women’s and migrants’ unpaid and underpaid labour, and the weakness of care services, including health, child and long- term care.
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The unprecedented expansion of social protection measures over the last year demonstrates 22 SDG indicator 1.3.1, and ILO, World Social Protection Report 2020-22: Social Protection at the Crossroads – in Pursuit of a Better Future, 2021 23 ILO, Social protection responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries: Strengthening resilience by building universal social protection, 2020; ILO, Extending social protection to informal workers in the COVID-19 crisis: country responses and policy considera- tions, 2021 24 ILO data for 2021: Social Protection Monitor: Social Protection Responses to the COVID19 Crisis around the World 25 UNDP and UN-Women, COVID-19 Global Gender Response Tracker Factsheet, March 2021; their critical role in protecting health, lives and livelihoods, and promoting a swift and inclusive recovery.
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In countries with strong pre-existing social protection systems, statutory schemes automatically fulfilled their protective function, further reinforced through additional resources channelled largely through existing schemes, including social insurance and tax-financed schemes.
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In countries with weak social protection systems, governments faced greater challenges in mounting a commensurate response to extend protection to those who were most affected, including migrants, and workers in the informal economy.23 Overall, virtually all countries and territories took action and implemented or announced in total nearly 1,700 measures between March 2020 and May 2021, including measures to ensure that people could access quality health care and were able to quarantine themselves, thereby protecting their own health and the health of others.24 Yet in many countries, measures adopted have been temporary (one-time or short-term sup- port for few weeks or months), ad-hoc and often gender blind.25 Additionally, an overwhelming majority of these social protection measures were implemented in high-income countries.
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While these measures were essential, the initial response has already petered out, highlighting the need to invest in social protection systems and ensure that those measures are not rolled-back. Such efforts need to address underlying challeng- es and long-standing constraints: limited fiscal space, political considerations impacting tax and budget reforms, and weak administrative capac- ity.
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According to spending plans reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), many gov- ernments have already started cutting back their 11 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY fiscal expenditures in 2021,26 raising concerns about possible cuts in social protection measures.
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Comprehensive social protection systems will facilitate a green and just transition, as they can improve the resilience of people and countries affected by climate hazards, while promoting the ecological structural transition needed to miti- gate the scale of global warming. They can also address critical drivers of conflict and displace- ment, enhance social cohesion and creating more equal and resilient societies.
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Today, countries stand at a crossroad, facing a choice over the future of their social protection strategies.27 Based on the lessons learnt from the COVID-19 crisis, many countries have taken the first step towards a ‘high road’ in support of a human-centred and resilient recovery by invest- ing in universal, comprehensive, adequate and sustainable social protection systems, in line with human rights principles and international social security standards.
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Without adequate financing and political will, however, governments could fall back on a ’low-road’ turn, marked by minimal benefits and yawning coverage gaps. Moreover, COVID-19 also presents a critical opportunity to ensure that social protection strategies are inclu- sive, leave no one behind, and have the capacity to respond to multiple and compounding crisis effectively and swiftly.
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The policy window for embarking on a high-road strategy in support of robust social protection systems will not remain open indefinitely. Governments must seize upon the momentum created by the current crisis to make rapid progress towards universal social protection systems while preparing themselves for present and future challenges.
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Building universal social protection systems requires first and foremost a nationally defined social protection floor that guarantees at least 26 IMF, Fiscal Monitor, April 2021 27 ILO, World Social Protection Report 2020-22: Social Protection at the Crossroads – in Pursuit of a Better Future, 2021 28 ILO, Recommendation R202 – Social Protection Floors Recommendation, 2012 (No.
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202) access to health care and to a basic level of income security, but it should not stop at the floor level.28 Universal social protection can be achieved through a mix of mechanisms such as inclusive social insurance schemes, tax-financed non-contributory schemes or a combination of both.
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Depending on country circumstances, such public social protection systems, including floors, can include universal child benefits, health protection, maternity and parental leave benefits, unemployment insurance, social pensions, and variants of a universal basic income (UBI). They should be complemented by effective access to health care, employment services, skills development and care services, including childcare and long-term care services.
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Such a combination of mechanisms can facilitate flexibility, labour mobility and decent work for people in all types of employment, as they provide for portability, broad risk-sharing, and sustainable and equitable financing of social protection systems.
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Without systematically transforming emergency measures into elements of rights- based social protection systems that are gender-, age- and disability-responsive, societies will not have the conditions that are needed to achieve the SDGs by 2030 and will be at risk of an equally if not worse dire situation when the next crisis hits. During the COVID-19 crisis, social protection has been high on the governments’ agenda, with unprecedented political support.
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Within a few weeks, many countries managed to overcome administrative and financial barriers and to reach those previously unprotected, including in the in- formal economy. The crisis has certainly shown that with political will and adequate allocation of resources, achieving universal social protection can become a reality.
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INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 12 No advanced economy has achieved economic and social progress without investing in social protection systems and quality public services that provide people with the necessary support to navigate the vicissitudes of their lives.
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To guarantee at least a basic level of income security and access to health care for all (a social protection floor), low-income countries alone would need to invest an additional US$ 77.9 billion, or 15.9 per cent of their GDP per annum.29 Together with an additional US$ 362.9 billion for lower-middle-income countries (5.1 per cent of their GDP) and US$ 750.8 for upper-middle income countries, (3.1 per cent of their GDP), investment to guarantee a social protection floor in 145 low- and middle-income countries is estimated at US$ 1’191.6 billion per year.30 Such an investment would provide 726.5 million children aged 0-5, 133.6 million new mothers, 192.9 million persons with severe disabilities and 497.0 million older persons in these countries with at least a basic level of income security, and 6.6 billion persons with access to essential health care.31 Taking into account the increase in global poverty spurred by the COVID-19-crisis, especially in low and middle-income countries,32 building a social protection floor has never been more urgent to avert significant long-term poverty impacts and 29 ILO, Financing gaps in social protection: Global estimates and strategies for developing countries in light of the COVID-19 crisis and beyond, 2020 30 Ibid.
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31 Ibid. Access to essential health care as estimated by the WHO, (Stenberg, et al. ), Financing Transformative Health Systems towards Achievement of the Health Sustainable Development Goals: A Model for Projected Resource Needs in 67 Low-Income and Middle- Income Countries, Lancet Global Health 5(9): e875-e887).
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Although these estimates provide an important approximation of resource needs, they cannot replace detailed costing studies of national social protection floors, which should be defined through an inclusive national dialogue.
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32 Kharas and Dooley (2021) Long-run impacts of COVID-19 on extreme poverty (brookings.edu) 33 UNICEF, Programme Guidance: Strengthening Shock Responsive Social Protection Systems, 2019 34 OHCHR, Report of the Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights: Digital technology, social protection and human rights, 2020 a global failure of meeting the SDGs.
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This can be facilitated by addressing the various barriers they face, tailored to their specific circumstances, including by harnessing digital technologies while working to close the digital divide. The evidence is also clear on the critical contri- bution of non-contributory benefits, such as cash transfers on a broad range of outcomes linked to human capital, including health, education, nutrition, as well as enhancing economic capac- ity of poor families.
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In addition, when properly designed, social protection systems can contrib- ute to risk management and effectively respond to emergency and crisis situations, including displacement.33 The COVID-19 crisis also highlighted the extent to which digital infrastructure can facilitate the expansion of social protection, including through well-targeted cash programs.
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Digital technologies can facilitate registration and access to benefits, yet careful consideration needs to be given to ensure the full protection of personal data and privacy, adequate accountability mechanisms, closing of the digital divide and ensuring that no one is left behind.34 13 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY CREATING JOBS AND PROMOTING A JUST TRANSITION TOWARDS EQUITABLE, SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIES Fiscal stimulus packages implemented in response to COVID-19, particularly job support measures, have played a crucial role in protect- ing households and businesses and boosting aggregate demand.
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This must be maintained in the coming years to halt the trend of grow- ing inequalities. Private investment, spurred by public finances, is also crucial to rebuilding econ- omies and creating jobs. Certain sectors not only have the potential to produce more jobs, but also better jobs, while at the same time helping econ- omies to move towards more inclusive, resilient and sustainable models of growth.
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These include a better paid care sector, as well as sectors and industries that contribute to greening economies. Investments into these sectors are vital to miti- gate the negative impact of climate change and its related extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and desertification that are already aggra- vating structural inequalities and negatively af- fecting the most marginalized.
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A green and just transition holds massive po- tential for all countries, particularly least devel- oping countries, rich in the resources needed for the renewables and sustainable revolution to capitalize on these trends by investing reve- nue in more sustainable and diversified econo- mies, as well as opportunities for all countries to create new and decent jobs and redress issues around equity and social justice.35 35 For more information on the green transition in relation to Extractive Industries, see the Secretary-General’s Policy Brief on Extractive Industries, May 2021 36 ILO Global Commission on the Future of Work, Work for a Brighter Future, 2019 37 ILO, Skills for a greener future: A global view, 2019.
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The study is based on two global scenarios: energy sustainability — a phasing out of fossil fuel energy generation and move to renewable sources — and a “circular economy” that mostly effects manufacturing, production and service sectors and embraces the recycling, repair, reuse, remanufacture and longer durability of goods.
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Such investments are also crucial for rural econ- omies which account for more than two in five of the world’s workers, who often live in poverty and work informally.36 Expanding green infrastructure in these economies would help small-scale farm- ers to have access to renewable energies and en- hance productivity and sustainability, which are key to decent-job creation and poverty reduction.
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Combined with better access to digital technolo- gy, these investments will also facilitate transition to formal employment. To benefit from these opportunities, the transi- tion to renewable energy-based economies will require comprehensive packages of support for countries and regions that rely heavily on revenues and jobs generated by the fossil fuel industry.
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The financing needs are significant; an- nual energy-related investments would need to increase by US$ 3 trillion globally, mostly in devel- oping countries, to be aligned with a 1.5 degrees world. But these investments would also yield enormous returns in the long-term, adding 4 per cent to Global Domestic Product (GDP) by 2030, while bringing other socioeconomic, health, and environmental benefits.
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The transition to renewable energy and the circular economy can also potentially generate over 100 million jobs by 2030, helping to reduce poverty and inequality.37 Yet close to 80 million jobs could also be lost over the same timeframe. Jobs in the renewables sector, for instance, reached 11.5 million globally in 2019, and are only expected to grow as the momentum behind the green transition accelerates.
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With women accounting for 32 per cent of the renewable energy workforce compared with 22 per cent for the overall energy sector, the transition could also contribute significantly to closing the gender INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 14 employment gap if well-designed policies and targeted funding are put in place.38 A just transition is thus necessary to seize the benefits of this transition, while effectively man- aging its risks.
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Investing in social protection, job growth, re-skilling and up-skilling programmes in support of the green economy will be essential to achieve a just transition from fossil to renew- able-based systems, and protect populations at increased risk of climate-related hardship.
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38 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Renewable Energy: A Gender Perspective, 2019 Similarly, public investments in the care econ- omy can yield a “triple dividend” for recovery: supporting women’s (re)entry into the labour market, reducing vulnerability among children and the elderly and creating more jobs than com- mensurate investments in other sectors, such as construction.
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Six hundred and forty-seven million persons of working age are outside the labour force due to family responsibilities.
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Unpaid care work constitutes the main barrier to women’s participation in labour markets, especially when looked at against the gender pay gap, while a for Poverty Eradication and a Sustainable Recovery Investing in Jobs and Social Protection Public investments for a just transition to a climate neutral and circular economy can potentially generate over As women account for 32 percent of the renewable energy workforce, green transition can contribute to closing the gender employment gap Jobs in the renewables sector, for instance, reached 11.5 million globally in 2019, and are only expected to grow Greening economies is required to reach the goals pledged in the Paris Agreement.
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Green Jobs Green investments are crucial for rural economies which account for more than 2 in 5 of the world’s workers, often in poverty and informality 100 million new jobs by 2030 15 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY more equal sharing of unpaid care work between men and women is associated with higher levels of women’s labour force participation.39 Meanwhile, 2.1 billion people remain in need of care, including 1.9 billion children under 15 and 200 million older persons.
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By 2030, this number is expected to reach 2.3 billion, driven by an ad- ditional 200 million older persons and children. Moreover, 16.4 billion working hours per day are spent in unpaid care work – the equivalent to 2 39 ILO, Care work and care jobs for the future of decent work, 2018 40 Ibid. billion people working eight hours per day with no remuneration.
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Were such services to be valued based on an hourly minimum wage, they would amount to 9 per cent of global GDP or US$ 11 trillion.40 To avert a looming global care crisis, investments in the care economy need to be significantly scaled-up. Around 269 million new jobs could be created by 2030 if investments in education, health and social work were doubled.
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for Poverty Eradication and a Sustainable Recovery Investing in Jobs and Social Protection Unpaid care work constitutes the main barrier to women's participation in labour markets Such services, valued based on an hourly minimum wage, they would amount to 9 percent of global GDP or US$ 11 trillion Care Economy 647 million persons of working age out of workforce due to family responsibilities 16.4 billion working hours per day are spent in unpaid care work Doubling investments in education, health and social work can create 269 million new jobs by 2030 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY 16 Tools and methodologies already exist to guide public investments in the care sector at national levels, and their practical applications will be critical to building a more inclusive economy.41 For example, gender-responsive budgeting sup- ports the assessment of policies and budgets and allocation of public resources to the care economy, as well as other priority sectors for inclusive recovery.42 INVESTING IN CHILDREN AND YOUTH THROUGH EDUCATION AND SKILLS As a result of the pandemic, school doors closed on about 1.5 billion students worldwide as of 30 March 2020 (83 per cent of enrolees in 167 countries).
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By the end of July 2021, nearly 15 mil- lion students still faced some disruption to their education.43 One hundred and eighty countries report that 17 million children are at risk of dropping out or not enrolling in education insti- tutions.44 Adolescent girls are more at risk than are boys of not returning to school in low and lower-middle-income countries; whereas boys are more likely to be out of school in upper-mid- dle and high-income countries.
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While many children in developing and developed countries shifted at least partially to distance learning, an estimated 100 million additional children fell below minimum proficiency in reading owing to the pandemic.45 In addition, many Technical and Vocational Education Training Centres (TVET) 41 UN-Women and ILO, A guide to public investments in the care economy.
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Policy support tool for estimating care deficits, investment costs and economic return, March 2021 42 UN-Women, COVID-19 and fiscal policy: applying gender-responsive budgeting in support and recovery, 2021 43 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Institute for Statistics (UNESCO UIS), Global Monitoring of School Closures Caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic, 2021 44 UNESCO (forthcoming), 2021 Update: Millions are Coming Returning to School, but Recoveries Are Not Equal 45 UNESCO Institute for Statistics (Gustafsson, M.), Pandemic-Related Disruptions to Schooling and Impacts on Learning Proficiency Indicators: A Focus on the Early Grades, 2021 46 World Bank, UNESCO and ILO, Skills development in the time of COVID-19: tacking stock of the initial responses in technical and voca- tional education and training, 2021 47 Consisting of representative workers’ and employers’ organizations and government were either completely or partially closed during the pandemic.46 Investments in education and vocational train- ing systems are key to building a sustaina- ble recovery from the pandemic and ensuring people are well-prepared for evolving challeng- es in the world of work, including in light of the green transition and digital revolution.
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Adapting national TVET centres should be guided by a tripartite governance system47 as a guarantee for market relevant training, diversified sources of funding and results-based allocations for impactful financing, a comprehensive quality assurance system that contributes to the trust of the private sector in training providers, and a framework for bridging the digital divide in education and skills development. Investment in disadvantaged learners is critical to avoid growing inequalities.
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Measures include providing remedial education and second chance programmes, pre-vocational training to access TVET or quality apprenticeships. Investments also need to promote gender equality, sustaina- bility, reduce occupational gender segregation, and address socio-cultural factors that make it more difficult for women to balance education, training and other responsibilities.
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Active labour market policies and social pro- tection to promote skills development in these areas will help workers upskill and re-skill to keep or change their job, adapt to the green and digital transitions and find ways out of poverty. These include grants, vouchers, subsidies, tax rebates or other equity measures for individuals, 17 INVESTING IN JOBS AND SOCIAL PROTECTION FOR POVERTY ERADICATION AND A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY enterprises, or training providers.
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It also includes accessible and affordable childcare services that enable working parents to seize employment opportunities and gain access to better jobs in the formal economy. Learning entitlements, also coupled with social protection, are instruments with growing international uptake to promote lifelong learning and improve access to education and training for all.
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Strategic investments in education and skills training should be embedded in a comprehen- sive approach to finance social infrastructure for children and families, in particular health, nutrition, early childhood development, water and sanitation.
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They provide the foundation for children and youth to prosper and to start productive working lives.48 DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR A JOB-RICH RECOVERY The digitalization of economies, and the expan- sion of fixed and mobile broadband networks, along with other forms of digitally-enabled em- ployment, offer much potential for promoting decent and highly productive jobs, particularly for younger people.
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