Text stringlengths 6 555 | Date stringclasses 43 values | Code stringclasses 43 values | Tag stringclasses 6 values | Section stringclasses 2 values | Number float64 0 4.2 ⌀ | Topic float64 | Label stringclasses 6 values |
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Monetary policy November 2023 Inflation is still too high and there are still risks that it will not continue falling fast enough and stabilise at the target. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
But inflation has fallen and inflationary pressures have clearly eased. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | positive |
The Executive Board has decided to hold the policy rate unchanged at 4 per cent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
The Executive Board assesses that monetary policy needs to remain contractionary and is prepared to raise the policy rate further if inflation prospects deteriorate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
Monetary policy has contributed to inflationary pressures in the Swedish economy being on their way down: the short-term rate of increase in consumer prices is lower than before and companies are making downward adjustments to their plans to raise prices. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | positive |
However, inflation remains too high and there are still risks that it will not fall fast enough going forward. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
Prices for services are increasing at a rapid pace and contributing significantly to total inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
In addition, the krona is still unjustifiably weak, which is holding up the rate of price increase for goods. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
As a result of the implemented policy rate hikes, demand in the Swedish economy is slowing down. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
The slowdown of the economy is now also beginning to reach the labour market. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
GDP is expected to continue falling for some time to come, at the same time as developments in the labour market slow down somewhat further. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | negative |
The lower activity in the Swedish economy, together with an expected strengthening of the krona exchange rate, will contribute to inflation falling towards the target during the course of next year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | neutral |
The forecast for the policy rate is that it may be raised further at the start of next year and that monetary policy needs to be contractionary for a relatively long period of time for inflation to fall back and stabilise close to the target of 2 per cent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | hawkish |
New information and how it is assessed to affect the economic outlook and inflation prospects will be decisive in determining the monetary policy stance. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sum | Intro | 0 | null | neutral |
Inflation is approaching the target but is still too high | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_title | null | 1 | null | negative |
Tight monetary policy abroad is contributing to inflation continuing to fall back from last year’s peak levels. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
Central banks are allowing monetary policy to act by holding their policy rates at contractionary levels but are at the same time keeping the door open for further rate rises. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
Inflation is also falling in Sweden, roughly in line with the Riksbank’s previous assessment. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Monetary policy has dampened demand in the Swedish economy and is contributing to a slowdown in inflationary pressures. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
In recent months, consumer prices have increased at a slower pace than before and companies are adjusting their plans for price increases. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
The labour market is weakening from a strong starting point. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
However, inflation is still too high and there are still risks that it will not fall fast enough going forward. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
Prices for services are increasing at a rapid pace and contributing significantly to total inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, the krona is still unjustifiably weak, which is holding up the rate of price increase for goods. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | negative |
All in all, the Executive Board assesses that monetary policy needs to remain contractionary, but that it is appropriate now to hold the policy rate unchanged. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
The Executive Board has therefore decided to allow the policy rate to remain at 4 per cent, but is prepared to raise it further if the prospects for inflation deteriorate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
The forecast for the policy rate is that it may be raised further at the start of next year and that monetary policy needs to be contractionary for a relatively long period of time for inflation to fall back and stabilise close to the target of 2 per cent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | hawkish |
New information and how it is assessed to affect the economic outlook and inflation prospects will be decisive in determining the monetary policy stance. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sec_sum | null | null | null | neutral |
Increasingly clear signs that inflation is falling. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 1.1 | null | positive |
Weak growth in Sweden is starting to make an impression on the labour market. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
In Sweden, too, developments in the real economy have been in line with the Riksbank’s forecast. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Growth is low, much due to demand being subdued by the parts of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates, such as household consumption and housing investment (see Figure 3). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, the Swedish household’s demand has nevertheless slowed down much further (see left-hand image in Figure 3). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This reflects their high sensitivity to interest rates. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
But in other parts of the economy, such as the export sector, demand is slowing down in the wake of weaker economic activity abroad. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
As in the euro area and United States, the labour market in Sweden has long succeeded in withstanding the falling growth. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Employment has been stronger than forecasts by the Riksbank for some time. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
However, signs that the economic downturn is having an impact on the Swedish labour market are now becoming increasingly visible. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Employment is still at a historically high level, but unemployment has started to rise at the same time as indicators are suggesting some further increase in the near term (see also the description in Chapter 3). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Inflationary pressures easing in the Swedish economy but still too high | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
There are clear indications that inflationary pressures are easing in the Swedish economy. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Measured as the CPIF excluding energy, inflation amounted to 6.1 per cent in October, which can be compared with 6.9 per cent in September and the peak levels of around 9 per cent at the start of the year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
CPIF inflation has fallen faster, from the peak levels of around 10 per cent at the end of 2022, to 4.2 per cent in October. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The gap between the different measures of inflation becomes even clearer if we examine their contributions to the price increases (see Figure 4). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This shows that, for some time, energy prices have made a significantly negative contribution, while other components continue to make large positive contribution to total inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This applies in particular to prices of services. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
One way of obtaining a picture of current price developments is to look at changes over a shorter period of time than 12 months. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Figure 5 shows the price changes over three months, calculated as an annual rate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The left-hand image shows a comparison of the CPIF and the CPIF excluding energy. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The pattern is similar to that for the twelve-month figures, but also differs in some respects. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of increase in the CPIF had already peaked by the middle of last year, after which it dropped sharply to the current level of just above the inflation target. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
The rate of increase in the CPIF excluding energy is more sluggish and peaked at the beginning of the current year, after which it fell, to around the same level as CPIF inflation as a whole, that is just above 2 percent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The rate of increase on both services and goods has declined considerably from the peak levels (see right-hand image in Figure 5). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This development gives cause for optimism, but needs to continue for inflation to fall back towards the target within a reasonable period of time. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Further discussion of short-term rates of price increase can be found in Chapter 3. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Companies' price plans are another important indicator of inflationary pressures in the economy. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Measurements of these are made in both the National Institute of Economic Research's Economic Tendency Survey and the Riksbank's own Business Survey. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
According to the Economic Tendency Survey, price plans among companies in the retail trade are somewhat higher than normal (see left-hand image in Figure 6). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The Riksbank’s Business Survey shows a more marked change in price plans among the household-related companies (see right-hand image in Figure 6). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
When inflation started to rise in Sweden, the proportion of household-related companies planning price rises also increased. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
But in the two latest surveys, this proportion has fallen substantially. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
In the most recent survey, the proportion of companies planning to raise prices over the next year is lower than the proportion of companies planning to cut them. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
There are a couple of possible explanations for the differences between the Economic Tendency Survey and the Riksbank’s Business Survey. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Firstly, the Economic Tendency Survey refers to price plans three months ahead, while the Business survey refers to plans for the coming year. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
And secondly, the Economic Tendency Survey covers a lot more companies than the Business survey. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Although the picture is not entirely unambiguous, it can be concluded that companies have now adjusted their price plans downwards quite significantly. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Long-term inflation expectations have also been stable in recent years, too, when inflation has reached double figures (see Figure 7). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This is a sign that the inflation target enjoys a high level of credibility. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Short-term expectations rose in 2021 and 2022 in step with the measured rate of inflation, but have been falling for a while. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
One year ahead, expectations among both companies and money market participants are close to 2 per cent. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
Households’ expectations tend to be higher than actual inflation, which may reflect the fact that they tend to focus more on prices that are rising than those that are unchanged or falling (see Figure 7). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The krona’s development is increasing uncertainty over the development of inflation | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | negative |
Since September, the krona exchange rate has strengthened considerably but it is still very weak from a historical point of view. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The Riksbank assesses that, during the period of high inflation, companies have transferred cost increases from, for instance, electricity and input goods, to consumer prices to a greater extent than previously. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
This probably also applies to costs for imported goods related to the weak krona. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In comparison with the euro area, underlying inflation is falling more slowly in Sweden, which is likely connected with the depreciation of the krona against the euro (see the article “The pass-through of the krona to inflation appears to be larger than usual”). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
If the krona depreciates more than expected going forward, at the same time as the pass-through to inflation is large, this would increase the risk that inflation will not fall back in line with the Riksbank’s forecast. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
This could justify a tighter monetary policy. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
There is in general considerable uncertainty over the krona exchange rate and its effect on inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Continued contractionary monetary policy | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | sub_sec_title | null | 1.2 | null | hawkish |
Policy rate held unchanged at 4 per cent | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_title | null | null | null | hawkish |
Inflation abroad has fallen further since September and is approaching the central banks’ targets. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
However, underlying inflation is falling at a slower pace. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Inflation is also falling in Sweden, roughly in line with the Riksbank’s previous assessment. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Monetary policy has dampened demand in the Swedish economy and is contributing to a slowdown in inflationary pressures. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In recent months, consumer prices have increased at a slower pace than before, and companies no longer plan to raise prices as much. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
The labour market is weakening from a strong starting point. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
However, inflation is still too high and there are still risks that it will not fall fast enough going forward. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
Prices for services are increasing at a rapid pace and contributing significantly to total inflation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
In addition, the krona is still unjustifiably weak, which is holding up the rate of price increase for goods. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
All in all, the policy rate therefore needs to remain at contractionary level for inflation to continue falling. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
The Executive Board deems it appropriate now to hold the policy rate unchanged at 4 per cent, but is prepared to raise it further if the prospects for inflation deteriorate. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
The forecast for the policy rate is that it may be raised further at the start of next year and that monetary policy needs to be contractionary for a relatively long period of time for inflation to fall back and stabilise close to the target of 2 per cent (see Figure 8). | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
However, there is still considerable uncertainty, and new information and how it is assessed to affect the economic outlook and inflation prospects will be decisive in determining the monetary policy stance. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The fact that inflation and monetary policy can develop in a different way than forecast is illustrated in the alternative scenarios in Section 1.4. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Over the past year, inflation has reached its highest level in over 30 years. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | negative |
High inflation has a negative effect on the whole economy, but is particularly problematic for households with small margins. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
Consequently, the Riksbank attaches great weight to returning inflation to the target within a reasonable period of time. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | hawkish |
Low and stable inflation makes it easier for households and companies to plan ahead and creates good conditions for social partners to continue using the inflation target as anchor in wage formation. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | neutral |
The fact that inflation is falling towards the target enables a return to real wage growth and increases households’ purchasing power. | 23/11/2023 | Nov-23 | par_body | null | null | null | positive |
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