Month: December 2016

HAPPY NEW YEAR! 

Before 2017 gets into full swing, I thought I would take a moment to review 2016 weather for the Valley.  Let’s go! 

2016: A WARM YEAR

Probably the #1 weather story for year was the consistent WARMTH.  Only 2 months were colder than average (and neither was by much).  That’s a remarkable run from May-November. 

A look at temperatures for entire year (click to enlarge). 

Daily records highs were set on:

February 3

February 20 (tie)

February 28

March 9

March 24

November 18 (tie)

December 26 (tie)

Interesting that we did not set or even tie any records between March 24 and November 18.  It was consistently warm but not crazy warm. 

How did 2016 compare to recent years?  Not quite as warm as 2012:

The summer was consistently very warm but notice 90 degree days were below average again.  LOTS of 85-89 degree days over the summer. 

Air conditioners were busy with the warm days and steamy nights. 

FROM DROUGHT TO SURPLUS

A big weather story in the Spring and early Summer was the lack of rain.  The drought was never severe by any stretch but things browned up for a while.  It was a big change from 2015. 

Mid to late Summer was wetter and the year was wetter-than-average overall.  This counts rain and the liquid equivalent of snow we got. 

In October, we had one of the wettest days on record in Youngstown:

LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER

We of course had thunderstorms and occasional hail and damaging winds but overall it was a below-average season for severe weather.  There were NO confirmed tornadoes in our viewing area in 2016.  The nearest ones were in Butler County, PA (red dots):

DECEMBER: NOT LIKE 2015! 

The end of 2016 finally brought some cold weather to the Valley.  It was one of the snowiest Decembers on record with over 23″ at the airport.  Compare that to 2015 when we had the warmest December on record! 

JANUARY 1 STATS

Finally, some fun stats about New Year’s Day weather.  This year: nice day with some sunshine; highs in the 30s. 

GOOD MORNING TO YA…. 

Last night’s snow, as expected, was pretty “ho hum” with just some dustings for most locations.  That precipitation has pushed east this morning:

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Now we await the lake-effect to set up.  It will take a while.  The arctic air has not arrived yet:

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Temperatures today will hold nearly steady in the mid 30s. 

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The lake-effect will get going this evening and during the overnight.  Here’s the hi-res “futurecast” depiction:

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Notice the ramp-up of activity near the end of the loop. 

Lake-effect snow will continue overnight into Friday morning and wind down Friday afternoon and evening. 

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Lake-Effect Snow Advisory is up for Mercer County, where the highest amounts could be up around 6″ or so (northern part of county). 

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Our snow map, which I will be tweaking a little this afternoon:

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No matter how much snow you see Friday, everyone will share in the wind and cold.  Brrrrr. 

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THE WEEKEND (HAPPY NEW YEAR!) 

Another quick-hitting system will track our way Saturday and the result could be similar to what we just saw last night: a low-impact wet snow/mix event.  Think that things will just be damp on the roads for your New Year’s Eve plans.  Temperatures in the 30s. 

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New Year’s Day looks tranquil with mixed sun and clouds. 

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NEXT WEEK: UP THEN DOWN

An early week warm spell (mid/upper 50s Tuesday!)  will be followed by a much colder pattern for the 2nd half of next week and next weekend. 

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The cold will actually encompass nearly the entire Lower 48.  Only south Florida escapes! 

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”!  This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm. 

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook??  We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made.  This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region.  Fill out this form if interested! 

GOOD MORNING…..

Off to a cloudy and quiet start across the Valley this morning.  BUT, there is clearing to our southwest and I expect that clearing to get in here as we get into the midday and afternoon hours. 

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Highs today will be a few degrees above average. 

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A cold front will approach late tonight and it will bring some precipitation with it.  The question is: what kind?  This can be just wet snow for some and for many, a mix of rain and snow.  If it stays mostly or all snow in your location, you may see a fresh inch by daybreak Thursday. 

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Much of the rest of Thursday will be fairly uneventful with flurries around.  Lake-effect snow will set up and get more organized by Thursday night and Friday.  A windy, cold day Friday.  Wind chills no better than the lower teens:

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Snow will accumulate most efficiently in the primary snowbelts of OH, PA and NY.  In our viewing area, northern Trumbull and a large chunk of Mercer County have the best chance of seeing enough snow to shovel and plow.  NWS snow forecast (numbers probably too high south of I-80 in my opinion):

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HOLIDAY WEEKEND

The cold will ease quickly for Saturday and temperatures will get back into the mid 30s.  There is a chance for light mixed precipitation late in the day but I don’t think it will be impactful. 

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Temperature at midnight: around 30. 

New Year’s Day will be pretty quiet; a small chance for rain late in the day. 

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Rain showers and warmer temperatures likely early next week. 

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LONG RANGE

A blob of cold air will cover much of the country late next week into next weekend.  Looks like January. 

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WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”!  This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm. 

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook??  We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made.  This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region.  Fill out this form if interested! 

GOOD MORNING! 

Hope you had a great Christmas!  I enjoyed some time off but am back in the hot seat today.  Last night’s cold front brought gusty showers to the Valley; here are some local rainfall totals:

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Before the front rolled through we TIED the record high for December 26 of 64 degrees. 

That front is now well east and today will be a much more typical late December day.  Temperatures will hold nearly steady in the 30s.  Although there was some sunshine to start, the clouds to our north and west (white-grey color) will take over by lunchtime. 

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NEXT SNOW CHANCES

Winter weather will make a (fairly brief) comeback late this week.  Wednesday will be a tranquil day with some sunshine:

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The next arctic front is expected to sweep through early Thursday.  This can be accompanied by a band of snow; a coating to an inch or so is possible by mid-morning Thursday. 

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After a break Thursday afternoon, snow showers and squalls will get going off the lakes Thursday night and Friday.  This will result in sizable accumulations in the primary snow belts of Ohio, PA and New York.  In our viewing area, I’d expect at least a few inches in many places north of I-80 and especially around and north of Rt 87.  South of those locales, local accumulations of an inch to two or three will be possible. 

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Notice how windy that map looks with the isobars packed together.  Temperatures will hold in the 20s Friday and the wind chill should be no higher than the teens. 

NEW YEAR’S WEEKEND

Forecast details are a little tough this morning but at this point I am not expecting any MAJOR weather issues for the weekend.  The GFS tries to bring in a little wet snow Saturday afternoon (shown) and evening but not sure I buy that. 

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On January 1 there is a chance for a little precipitation, probably late in the day….more than likely rain, not snow. 

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LONG RANGE

A warmup early next week but the pattern looks to turn colder for a while starting around midweek. 

WEATHER FOR WEATHER GEEKS:

The Valley’s most detailed weather forecast is “Weather For Weather Geeks”!  This evening’s video will be on ericwfmj.com and wfmj.com/weather as well as the StormTracker app by 8:00pm. 

STORM TRACKER 21 STORM SPOTTERS

Interested in joining our closed spotter group on Facebook??  We prefer you be SKYWARN trained but some exceptions can be made.  This group is a place to report severe weather or just chat about interesting weather across our region.  Fill out this form if interested!