When Donald Trump announced his intention today to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Accord, which he intended as a defiant slap in the face of pretty much everyone on earth, he left out a few key words: “…if I get reelected.”  Because as it turns out, he can’t get the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement until 2021, and by that time someone else may be President instead. 

That’s the buried lede in an otherwise run of the mill report tonight from the New York Times (link), which waits all the way until the fourteenth paragraph to reveal the day’s biggest news: “But [Trump] will stick to the withdrawal process laid out in the Paris agreement, which President Barack Obama joined and most of the world has already ratified.  That could take nearly four years to complete, meaning a final decision would be up to the American voters in the next presidential election.” 

And so while Donald Trump signaled today that he really wants to kill the planet by pulling out of the Paris Accord, it turns out his defiant gesture today was mostly bravado and wishful thinking.  For the next four years, the United States will technically remain part of the Accord.  The only way Trump could possibly remove the U.S. from the Accord is if he gets reelected and then does it early in his second term. 

So now we know the real story of the day: the Paris Climate Accord in particular, and the issue of climate change in general, just became a defining issue in the 2020 election.  The new President who takes office in January 2021 will make the final decision on whether to remain in the Accord.  And considering that Donald Trump is so unpopular and unstable that it’s unlikely he’ll even complete his current term, the final decision on the Paris Accord will almost surely be made by someone else.  If you’re a regular reader, feel free to support Palmer Report



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