The risk of Colles' fracture is associated with the collagen I alpha1 Sp1 polymorphism and ultrasound transmission velocity in the calcaneus only in heavier postmenopausal women. 
To compare the ability of the bone mineral density (BMD) at the distal forearm, collagen I alpha 1 (COLIA1) polymorphism, and ultrasound stiffness to identify individuals with increased risk of wrist fracture, we studied 183 postmenopausal Czech women with a wrist fracture and 178 postmenopausal controls, ages 45-70 years.  The genotypes "Ss" and "ss" were significantly overrepresented among fracture cases.  The BMD measurements at the femoral neck, total femur, and distal forearm as well as ultrasound stiffness of the heel, broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA), and speed of sound (SOS) were significantly lower in the fracture cohort.  BMD of the distal forearm was the main determinant of susceptibility to the wrist fracture.  Weight, the COLIA1 genotype, and ultrasound SOS further strengthened the predictive value of BMD.  However, we found interaction between weight and both the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism and ultrasound parameters.  Presence of the "s" allele as well as low SOS acted as significant predictors of wrist fracture only in heavier women, (> or =62 kg) but not in women with a body weight of less than 62 kg.  In heavier women, both the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism and ultrasound parameters acted as independent markers that contributed to BMD to enhance fracture prediction.  However, the COLIA1 enabled a higher specificity (specificity 72.4%, sensitivity 44.2%), whereas SOS enabled a higher sensitivity (sensitivity 73.9%, specificity, 45.7%).  We conclude that BMD at total forearm, the COLIA1 polymorphism, and ultrasound SOS are independent predictors of wrist fracture in postmenopausal women.  The effect of the COLIA1 Sp1 polymorphism and SOS on wrist fracture risk is more pronounced in patients with a higher body weight.