Four days before Jameis Winston hoisted the Heisman, John Urschel struck a more thoughtful pose in New York.  The two-time All-Big Ten guard accepted the William V. Campbell Trophy (aka the academic Heisman), capping a Penn State career that included a bachelor's and master's in math and a second master's in math education that is nearly complete (all A's).  If Urschel wasn't pushing the sled, he was building his CV.  In his final season, he not only earned third-team AP All-American honors but also taught Math 232 (integral vector calculus), and he recently proved the Urschel-Zikatanov Generalized Bisection Theorem in a paper titled "Spectral Bisection of Graphs and Connectedness."  It's been accepted by Linear Algebra and Its Applications, the top journal in spectral graph theory. " This may not be cool to your readers," says the 22-year-old, "but to a math-savvy person, proving your own theorem is pretty sick."  Yes, an offensive lineman actually said that. 

WHILE PREPARING FOR the NFL combine on Feb. 22, I worked hundreds of hours on my 40-yard dash, 225-pound bench press, 20-yard shuttle and other drills, hoping that better results will deem me worthy of a draft pick.  But as I was running and lifting, I couldn't help but wonder, from a purely analytical standpoint, if those skills even relate to my future success. 

So like any good mathematician vexed by a question, I searched for an answer.  Then The Mag approached me to brainstorm ideas for its Analytics Issue.  We decided I should look at combine results of the 400 offensive linemen invited and graded by Scouts Inc. since 2006 to determine what, if anything, strongly indicates success.  Using ESPN Stats & Information's data -- including body measurements, combine results, draft position and NFL performance (e.g., starts) -- I treated three problems: 1) how best to predict a lineman's draft position, 2) that prospect's success in terms of NFL starts, and 3) whether a fringe prospect will be selected.  My results are below. 

One of Urschel's recent papers has been accepted by a top journal in spectral graph theory.  Gregg Segal for ESPN

Predict how early (or late) a lineman will go

The projection of how a college player's performance will translate to the NFL is far from an exact science.  As my fellow mathematicians might say: There is agreement on the sigma-algebra but much debate on the proper measure. [ Ed. 's note: Just Google it.]  This is especially true for evaluating O-linemen.  That's because I can count on one hand the times I blocked 40 yards downfield.  And believe me, benching 225 doesn't compare to blocking Dolphins defensive end Jared Odrick or Bengals defensive tackle Devon Still, both PSU alums whom I faced day after day in practice. 

I contend that the offensive line is the only spot in football where intangibles like toughness and determination are as key as athleticism, a theory backed by my study.  For instance, when I tried to predict where a lineman would be drafted, all combine results -- including body measurements -- lacked significant correlation.  The one factor that proved most helpful was a lineman's position.  On average, tackles tend to go nearly a round earlier than guards and centers because of the increased importance of the edge pass rusher in the NFL. 

So if measurements and combine tests don't account for draft position, what are the relevant factors?  The answer that naturally comes to mind is on-field performance, but mathematically speaking, the tale of the tape doesn't prove as accurate as one might think.  When I used Scouts Inc.'s prospect grades to measure college performance, it was reliable only in early rounds.  Considering only the linemen selected in the first 150 picks, the grades had a correlation of 81 percent to overall draft position.  For the remaining picks, the correlation plummeted to 17.5 percent, because although scouts agree on what makes a great lineman, there is still much debate on what makes a good lineman. 

Spot an every-down starter