Otto, the tropical storm that returned to Category 1 hurricane status on Wednesday evening, has already begun affecting parts of Panama and Nicaragua. The sixth Atlantic storm of the season has forced thousands of Costa Ricans to evacuate their homes near the Caribbean coast.

Speaking Wednesday morning, President Luís Guillermo Solís said that evacuations issued for certain places under red alert were mandatory and urged people to not try and ride out the weather if they live in those areas.

“We are not going to allow the loss of lives for material reasons,” Solís said at a Wednesday morning gathering with the country’s security officials.

A mudslide and a fallen tree in Panama lead to three deaths Tuesday from high winds and rain caused by Otto.

If you have information, community news or photos on this developing story in the coming hours and days, please contact The Tico Times via Facebook or at kstanley@ticotimes.net. </s> 000 WTNT31 KNHC 240535 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE OTTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 100 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016 ...OTTO BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.2N 82.4W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNE OF LIMON COSTA RICA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Limon Costa Rica to Bluefields Nicaragua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * South of Limon to the Costa Rica/Panama border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * San Andres * Puntarenas Costa Rica to Puerto Sandino Nicaragua A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Providencia Island should monitor the progress of Otto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otto was located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 82.4 West. Otto is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next couple of days with an increase in forward speed expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Otto will move onshore within the hurricane warning area later today, and reach the Pacific coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, with weakening expected as the cyclone crosses southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches, can be expected across northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua through today. These rains will likely result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Outer rain bands from Otto are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over San Andres and Providencia islands, and the higher terrain of central and western Panama and southern Costa Rica through this morning. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua by tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Otto are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions over the next several days along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Brennan </s> The Latest on tropical weather in the Caribbean (all times local):

Late-season Hurricane Otto is crawling westward toward Central America's Caribbean coast with little change in strength.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Otto is now about 230 miles (370 ) east of Limon, Costa Rica and moving to the west at 2 mph (4 kph).

Forecasters say the hurricane has top sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph) and should gain more strength in coming days until landfall.

Forecasters say Otto has gained hurricane status in the Carribbean as it edges closer to parts of Central America.

The Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center says Otto strengthened Tuesday and now has top sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). The forecasters say the storm is about 235 miles (375 ) east of Limon, Costa Rica.

Otto is also about 305 miles (485 ) east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. It is moving west at 2 mph (4 kph) after being almost stationary earlier Tuesday.

The hurricane says Colombia has issued a tropical storm warning for San Andres Island. Nicaragua has posted a tropical storm watch for that Central American nation from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi. Some other areas in the region also under a tropical storm watch or warning.

Civil officials in Panama say the country has already seen three deaths blamed on late-season Tropical Storm Otto.

The agency says two people died in landslides, and a child was killed when a tree fell on a car outside a school in Panama City.

Panama announced Tuesday it was cancelling classes it began to release water from locks and lakes feeding the Panama Canal.

Otto is gained strength in the Caribbean and could become a hurricane soon as it heads for a possible Thursday landfall in Costa Rica or Nicaragua. </s> MANAGUA, Nicaragua — Hurricane Otto strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane as it churned toward the sparsely populated Caribbean coast border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica Thursday as an unusually strong late-season storm.

Heavy rains from the storm were blamed for three deaths in Panama. Otto was forecast to make landfall Thursday in Nicaragua, just north of the Costa Rican border.

In Bluefields, Nicaragua — the nearest town of any size on the coast — residents prepared to ride out the hurricane.

“In our house, we have packed up some things in plastic bags and we went out to buy some provisions, just in case,” said Bluefields resident Jean Hodgson. “But if we had to leave our house, we don’t know where we could take refuge.” The area is low-lying and easily flooded.

Nicaragua closed schools and was evacuating more than 10,000 people from communities in the storm’s path. Heavy rains were expected to affect the entire country, raising the possibility of flooding and landslides.

Officials in Costa Rica ordered the evacuation of 4,000 people from its Caribbean coast and called off school nationwide for the rest of the week. Heavy rain was already causing flooding in some areas and the president announced that public employees would not have to work Thursday or Friday.

No hurricane has made a direct landfall in Costa Rica since reliable record-keeping began in 1851.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm regained hurricane strength late Wednesday night after fluctuating between tropical storm and hurricane status earlier this week. By Thursday morning, Otto’s maximum sustained winds had increased to near 105 mph with additional strengthening possible before landfall.

The storm caused heavy rains in Panama as it moved roughly parallel to that nation’s northern coast, killing three people there.

Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solis said Otto could damage the country’s important coffee and agriculture sectors.

Nicaragua also feared damage for impoverished farmers and to coffee crops that are almost ready for harvest.

Otto “could seriously jeopardize food security for small-holder farmers who rely on maize, beans, cocoa, honey, coffee and livestock for their livelihoods,” said Jennifer Zapata, a regional director for Heifer International, a U.S.-based anti-poverty group.

Thursday morning, Otto was moving west near 8 mph and was centered about 70 miles north of Limon, Costa Rica, the hurricane center said. </s> Hurricane Otto has strengthened to a category two storm as it approaches the sparsely populated Caribbean border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica as an unusually strong late-season event.

Heavy rains from the storm were blamed for three deaths in Panama, and Otto was forecast to make landfall in Nicaragua on Thursday, just north of the Costa Rican border.

Officials in Costa Rica ordered the evacuation of 4,000 people from its Caribbean coast and closed schools nationwide for the rest of the week. Heavy rain has already caused flooding in some areas and the Costa Rican president, Luis Guillermo Solís, announced that public employees would not have to work on Thursday or Friday.

The country’s National Meteorological Institute noted that a hurricane had never made landfall in Costa Rica since records began.

Nicaragua also closed schools and was evacuating more than 10,000 people from communities in the storm’s path. Heavy rains were expected to affect the whole country on Thursday and Friday, raising the possibility of flooding and landslides.

The US National Hurricane Center said the storm had regained hurricane strength late on Wednesday night after fluctuating between tropical storm and hurricane status earlier in the week. By Thursday morning, Otto’s maximum sustained winds had increased to nearly 105mph (165km/h) with additional strengthening possible before landfall.

Solís said Otto could damage the country’s important coffee and agriculture sectors.

Nicaragua also feared damage for impoverished farmers and to coffee crops that are almost ready to harvest. </s> Tropical storm Otto, located about 335 miles (545 km) east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua, is now near hurricane strength, the U.S.-based National Hurricane Center said in its latest update on Tuesday.

The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour (110 km/h) and is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Wednesday, the Miami-based agency said. </s> Forecasters say Otto has gained hurricane status in the Caribbean as it edges closer to parts of Central America.

The Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center says Otto strengthened Tuesday and now has top sustained winds of 75 mph (120 kph). The forecasters say the storm is centered about 235 miles (375 kilometers) east of Limon, Costa Rica.

Otto is also about 305 miles (485 kilometers) east-southeast of Bluefields, Nicaragua. It is moving west at 2 mph (4 kph) after being almost stationary earlier Tuesday.

The hurricane center says Colombia has issued a tropical storm warning for San Andres Island. Nicaragua has posted a tropical storm watch for that Central American nation from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi. Some other areas in the region also under a tropical storm watch or warning.

Forecasters say more strengthening is expected in coming days.

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By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 5:14 PM GMT on November 22, 2016 From Weather Underground

One of the strongest tropical cyclones on record so far south in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Otto, was on the verge of becoming a hurricane Tuesday morning. In its 10 AM EST advisory, the National Hurricane Center pegged Otto’s top sustained winds at 70 mph, just short of the hurricane threshold. Otto was christened on November 21, an unusually late for a Caribbean tropical storm; only eleven Caribbean storms since 1851 have had a later formation date.

Still holding stationary less than 100 miles north of the coast of Panama on Tuesday morning, Otto is expected to begin moving west on Wednesday. The storm will likely make landfall as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane on the coast of southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica on Thursday. A hurricane watch extends along the entire Caribbean coast of Costa Rica northward to south of Bluefields, Nicaragua. A tropical storm warning is in effect along the central coast of Panama from Nargana to Colon, with a tropical storm watch westward to the border of Costa Rica. These are startling locations for tropical cyclone advisories–understandably so. A storm of Otto’s expected strength has never made landfall so far south in the Caribbean, and there is no record of any hurricane striking Costa Rica.

Over the past day or so, Otto has largely shaken off the elongating influence of the frontal zone on which it developed, which extends far to the northeast into the Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms have become stronger and much more symmetric around Otto’s center since Monday night. The storm remains quite compact, with tropical storm force winds extending out to only 70 miles from the center. That small size is both good news and bad news, as it will allow Otto to either intensify or weaken more quickly than a larger storm would. Otto will be moving through a very concave section of the Central American coast, and the rugged topography may help impart some extra spin to Otto’s circulation as the storm gradually enlarges.



 Otto is in a very favorable spot to intensify. Sea surface temperatures remain unusually warm for this time of year–around 29°C (84°F), or about 1°C above the seasonal average. The atmosphere will be moistening over time, with the 12Z Tuesday SHIPS model predicting that mid-level relative humidities around Otto will increase from about 60% to greater than 70%. The main negative factor for Otto is vertical wind shear of 15 – 20 knots resulting from upper-level southeasterly winds blowing over the storm as it sits and spins. However, that shear may abate slightly on Wednesday and Thursday, and it is not enough in itself to keep Otto from intensifying. Otto should reach Central America as at least a Category 1 hurricane, and Category 2 or even higher strength cannot be ruled out. The most reliable intensity model for existing tropical cyclones, the HWRF, has consistently projected that Otto will become a solid Category 2 storm. The SHIPS model gives Otto a 30% chance of reaching top sustained winds of 90 knots (105 mph) by Tuesday morning, and an 18% chance of reaching 115 knots (135 mph, minimal Category 4 strength) by Wednesday morning.

No storm ever observed in the Atlantic, including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is known to have attained a strength of Category 2 or higher after November 20. See below for more details on late-season Atlantic climatology.

Otto’s track: Central America, and perhaps the East Pacific 

 Stubbornly stationary Otto began to show signs at midday Tuesday of a long-awaited westward movement. Our most reliable track models–the European, GFS, and UKMET–are now consistent in bringing Otto onshore across southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica on Thursday. It should take about a day for Otto to cross southern Nicaragua, which is much less mountainous than other parts of Central America. In fact, much of Otto’s path could be over Lake Nicaragua, one of the top-ten biggest freshwater lakes in the Americas. With land influence at a relative minimum, Otto has a shot at retaining its identity as a tropical cyclone when it enters the Pacific on Friday. In this case, Otto would keep its name in the Pacific. Should Otto dissipate, but its remnants manage to redevelop in the Pacific, the new storm will take the name Virgil from the Eastern Pacific list.

More than a dozen “crossover” tropical cyclones have been recorded, most of them moving from Atlantic to Pacific rather than vice versa. The most recent was Hermine (2010), which formed as an East Pacific tropical depression before entering the western Gulf and striking the northeast coast of Mexico as a tropical storm. Otto would be the first crossover storm in modern records to keep its name in going from one basin to another, since NHC’s previous practice was to rename such systems. All of Otto’s predecessors in this realm–includingHurricane Cesar-Douglas (1996)–underwent a name change when moving from Atlantic to Pacific or vice versa.



 Otto is likely to bring torrential rains, landslides, and flooding to parts of Central America. The region’s complex topography may lead to several widely dispersed areas of extremely heavy rain. The most straightforward part of the outlook is for several inches of rain over nearly all of Nicaragua, with a core of 10” – 15” amounts very possible just north of Otto’s circulation as it makes landfall and moves inland. The broad circulation enveloping Otto has been impinging on parts of Costa Rica and Panama, a process leading to very heavy rain that could go well beyond 15” in some areas, especially western Panama. Another narrow zone of torrential rain (again, 15” or more possible) is projected by models to develop later this week as Otto’s outer circulation moves along the north coast of Honduras, perhaps extending into far southern Belize and extreme eastern Guatemala.



 Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995 (including 2016), 13 of the 21 years (62%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of eighteen November/December storms:

2016: Tropical Storm Otto on November 21

 2015: Hurricane Kate on November 8

 2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8

 2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4

 2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6

 2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11

 2005: the “Greek” storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta

 2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29

 2003: Odette and Peter in December

 2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24

 1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14

 1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24

 1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. “Wrong-way Lenny” was the second deadliest and the second strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds).

There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. Tropical Storm Sean of 2011 was an example of this type of storm. However, as noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in our blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, “It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity–in the 140-year period from 1851 – 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent–there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record”. Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, “Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?” He concluded that yes, there is an “apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming sea surface temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high”. The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.

We’ll be back with an update on Wednesday and will be tracking Otto throughout the Thanksgiving holiday period.

Figure 2. Enhanced infrared image of Otto as of 1545Z (10:45 AM EST) Tuesday, November 22, 2016. Image credit:NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

Figure 3. Track forecast for Otto as of 10 AM EST Tuesday, November 22, 2016.

Figure 4. Total rainfall for the 150-hour period ending at 7:00 AM EST Sunday, November 27, 2016, projected by the 06Z Tuesday run of the GFS model. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Figure 5. The second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA. (Thanks go to WU member elioe for pointing out that the November 1932 Cuba hurricane, which peaked at 170 mph winds, was the strongest and deadliest hurricane to occur in November.)

For more on this story go to: https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3510 </s> MANAGUA, Nicaragua — Tropical Storm Otto headed toward the Pacific Ocean early Friday after dumping rain on Costa Rica and Nicaragua, where it made landfall as the southernmost hurricane on record to hit Central America.

Otto reached Nicaragua's Caribbean coast on Thursday as a dangerous Category 2 storm but it immediately began fading as it crossed land, becoming a tropical storm by nighttime. It was expected to emerge over the eastern Pacific early Friday.

Authorities in Nicaragua said the hurricane had damaged houses, but so far there were no reports of casualties. Earlier, heavy rains from the storm were blamed for three deaths in Panama.

Otto battered Nicaragua's Corn Islands with 3.5-meter waves and damaged houses but residents were all safe in refuges, said the archipelago's mayor, Cleveland Rolando Webster.

"There is a lot of rain, the sea is rough and the wind is strong. We have been in danger all night, getting cold and wet," said Alicia Lampson, 21, as she arrived at a shelter with a group of people from the village of Monkey Point, south of Bluefields, Nicaragua.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the unusually strong late-season hurricane hit land in Nicaragua just north of the Costa Rican border. By late Thursday night, it was located about 20 miles (30 ) north of Liberia, Costa Rica.

The Nicaraguan government declared a state of emergency, and said evacuations would continue because of the continued risk of flooding.

In Bluefields — the nearest major town on the Nicaraguan coast — residents rode out the hurricane.

"In our house, we have packed up some things in plastic bags and we went out to buy some provisions, just in case," said resident Jean Hodgson.

Nicaragua closed schools and was evacuating more than 10,000 people from communities in the storm's path. Heavy rains were expected to affect the entire country, raising the possibility of flooding and landslides.

Officials in Costa Rica ordered the evacuation of 4,000 people from its Caribbean coast and called off school nationwide for the rest of the week.

Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solis said Otto could damage the country's important coffee and agriculture sectors. Nicaragua also feared damage to coffee crops that are almost ready for harvest. </s> MANAGUA, Nicaragua – Hurricane Otto made landfall as a dangerous Category 2 hurricane on a sparsely populated stretch of Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast Thursday, becoming the southernmost hurricane on record to hit Central America.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the unusually strong late-season hurricane hit land just north of the Costa Rican border near the town of San Juan de Nicaragua with winds of 110 mph.

The center said Otto’s winds later weakened to 100 mph as it moved inland near the border with Costa Rica.

The center called Otto dangerous in part because of the heavy rains and storm surge it carries, and forecasters said it was likely to cross over land and enter the Pacific.

Heavy rains from the storm have already been blamed for three deaths in Panama.

The center said Otto will continue to move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica and is expected to weaken to a tropical storm overnight.

The Nicaraguan government declared a state of emergency, and said evacuations would continue because of the continued risk of flooding.

In Bluefields, Nicaragua – the nearest major town on the Nicaraguan coast – residents rode out the hurricane.

“In our house, we have packed up some things in plastic bags and we went out to buy some provisions, just in case,” said Bluefields resident Jean Hodgson. “But if we had to leave our house, we don’t know where we could take refuge.” The area is low-lying and easily flooded.

Further south – and closer to where Otto hit – residents in the smaller town of Punta Gorda said they were planning to ride out the hurricane.

“There is fear, because these kinds of things are scary, but we are praying and doing what the authorities have told us to do,” said Punta Gorda resident Sara Pantin.

Nicaragua closed schools and was evacuating more than 10,000 people from communities in the storm’s path. Heavy rains were expected to affect the entire country, raising the possibility of flooding and landslides.

Officials in Costa Rica ordered the evacuation of 4,000 people from its Caribbean coast and called off school nationwide for the rest of the week. Heavy rain was already causing flooding in some areas and the president announced that public employees would not have to work Thursday or Friday.

By Thursday, 16 government shelters in Costa Rica held about 1,335 evacuees. People often take shelter with relatives during such evacuations.

The storm caused heavy rains in Panama as it moved roughly parallel to that nation’s northern coast, killing three people there.

Costa Rican President Luis Guillermo Solis said Otto could damage the country’s important coffee and agriculture sectors.

Nicaragua also feared damage for impoverished farmers and to coffee crops that are almost ready for harvest.

Otto was moving west at 12 mph (19 kph) and could re-emerge over the Pacific as a tropical storm before weakening to a tropical depression.
Hurricane Otto impacts Panama. A tropical storm watch is issued for Nicaragua from Bluefields to Sandy Bay Sirpi.