Hurricane Lane maintained its Category 3 intensity overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is still expected to pass south of the islands this week.

Hurricane Lane maintained its Category 3 intensity overnight, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, and is still expected to pass south of the islands this week.

At 5 a.m. today, Lane was about 890 mile east-southeast of Hilo and 1,100 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, traveling west at 15 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Hawaii.

Forecasters said that a “large swell generated by Lane is expected to reach the southeast- and east-facing shores of the Big Island, and possibly east-facing shores of Maui, by this evening,” producing large and dangerous surf by tonight or early Monday.

Lane has intensified quickly since forming in the East Pacific last week. It entered the Central Pacific Saturday as a Category 4 hurricane but has since weakened slightly. That weakening is expected to continue over the next five days, forecaster said. However, Lane will likely remain a powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 25 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles, the hurricane center said early this morning.

“Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward,” forecasters said. “Interests in those islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and intensity errors can be large.”

The five-day forecast calls for the storm to be a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph, by Friday when it is expected to be hundreds of miles southwest of Oahu, according to the hurricane center. </s> Hurricane Lane is barreling west across the Pacific Ocean on a course that will bring it close to Hawaii next week. With winds of 100 mph, Lane is now a Category 2 hurricane on a scale of one to five. It is now expected to reach Category 4, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph this weekend.

“Lane’s cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and the cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification,” the National Hurricane Center writes in its latest update.

Rapid intensification is defined as an increase in wind speeds of at least 35 mph over the course of 24 hours. With the increase in wind speed also comes a decrease in central pressure. Rapid intensification has been a frequent occurrence in all tropical cyclone basins of late, and was seen on numerous occasions during the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

“Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,” the Hurricane Center added. “Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm [sea surface temperatures], and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this scenario.”

During its closest pass to Hawaii, the Hurricane Center now brings the center of Lane within 250 miles of the southern shore of the Big Island. However, within the storm’s cone of uncertainty (below), the storm’s northern edge is only about 65 miles offshore.

The Hurricane Center says there is up to a 10 percent chance hurricane-force winds buffet the south shores of the Big Island.

With Lane still several days away, National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu concludes, “It is too soon to know if Lane will directly affect the Hawaiian Islands.”

Direct impacts like wind and rain are only one aspect of an extreme storm like Lane. Large waves are increasingly likely to batter parts of Hawaii as it passes. The Big Island is set to face the brunt, with swells approaching or surpassing 15 feet possible on its southern and eastern facing shoreline.

The increased swell aspect is a long-duration event, with high wave heights expected from at least Monday through Thursday.

Lane comes on the heels of Hurricane Hector, which nearly reached Category 5 strength in its run by Hawaii earlier this month. That was part of a 4,200-mile journey across the Pacific. Although Lane is south of where Hector was at this point in its life, Lane may end up taking a similar path.

As Capital Weather Gang’s tropical weather expert Brian McNoldy pointed out, Hector was a rare tropical cyclone to be named in all three basins of the Pacific. It’s not impossible Lane could try to follow those footsteps.

Although both Hector and Lane may be somewhat odd on their own, in many hurricane seasons we see similar weather patterns dominate for much of the summer and fall. The extreme 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a recent example. While any of the mega hurricanes and their tracks may have been peculiar, the unrelenting pattern conducive to the parade of storms remained in place for weeks.

Hurricane Lane is part of tropical cyclones that have tracked closer to Hawaii than common in the recent past. Increases in the availability of warm water and favorable atmospheric conditions are attributes of climate change which may be facilitating the increased frequency of close passes there.

Although Hawaii has been lucky to escape a direct hit from any of these major hurricanes in recent years, it is already seeing higher tides and increased flooding during these events, and it is something we could see from Lane even if it stays well offshore. </s> Lane got significantly stronger overnight and is now a Category 2 hurricane.

Lane got significantly stronger overnight and is now a Category 2 hurricane.

Now packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, Hurricane Lane was located 1,590 miles east-southeast of Hilo at 5 a.m. today and was moving west at 16 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Weather officials expect Lane to become a major hurricane tonight and to move west or west-northwest over the next few days.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for Hawaii is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane’s intensity. The scale provides examples of the type of impacts associated with wind intensity.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. </s> Hurricane Lane entered the Central Pacific on Saturday as a powerful Category 4 major hurricane.

As rated on the Saffir-­Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, a Category 4 hurricane carries maximum sustained winds between 130 and 156 miles per hour.

As of 5 p.m. Saturday, the storm was located 1,045 miles east-southeast of Hilo, moving west at 16 miles per hour, according to the National Weather Serv­ice. Maximum sustained winds were measured at 130 mph, with hurricane-­force winds extending outward up to 25 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 105 miles.

Forecasters at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu predicted that after several days of rapid intensification, Lane likely will weaken over the next few days as it begins to move west-northwest.

Lane is the sixth major storm of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, which runs through November.

The National Weather Serv­ice said it is still too early to determine Lane’s potential impact on local weather.

In the meantime, a low-level trough was expected to bring unstable air, showers and isolated thunderstorm activity today. Drier conditions will return Monday and Tuesday as more stable air moves in from the east, the weather service reported. </s> At 11 a.m. (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 134.1 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected during the entire forecast period, and Lane is forecast to cross into the central Pacific basin on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid intensification is expected for the next 24 hours, and Lane is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight and could become a category 4 hurricane on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 5 a.m., and Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane intensity later tonight and has the potential to become a category 4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable enough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional and statistical intensity guidance reflects strengthening, but the NHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCAA and the IVCN consensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane should begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly shear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of HCCA and IVCN at these times.

HONOLULU — HI-EMA recommends residents and visitors take the following actions to prepare for any possible hurricane or tropical cyclone:
• Prepare an “emergency kit” of a minimum of 14 days of food, water, and other supplies.
• Talk with family members and develop a clear understanding of what you will do if a hurricane or tropical storm threatens. Prepare an action plan that includes details such as whether your family plans to shelter in place or evacuate.
• Know if your home is in an inundation zone, flood zone, or susceptible to high winds and other hazards. Know if your home is retrofitted with hurricane resistant clips or straps.
• Stay tuned to local media and their websites/applications regarding weather updates.
• Get to know your neighbors and community so you can help each other.
• Walk your property and check for potential flood threats. Clear your gutters and other drainage systems. Remove and secure loose items. Keep your car gas tanks filled.
• Prepare your pets by checking or purchasing a carrier and other preparedness items. A pet carrier is necessary for your pet’s safety if you plan to evacuate to a pet-friendly shelter. Don’t forget 14 days of food and water for your furry family members.
• Set aside an emergency supply of any needed medication and keep a copy of your prescriptions in case you run out of medication after a disaster.
• Visitors should download GoHawaii App and read the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s Travel Safety Brochure at www.travelsmarthawaii.com. </s> UPDATE: 12:05 a.m. Sunday

Hurricane Lane, a powerful Category 3 storm, is moving west in the Central Pacific on a path that will take it south of the Hawaiian islands later this week.

Lane is packing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph with higher gusts and was about 1,180 miles east-southeast of Hilo moving west at 16 mph as of late Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extend up to 105 miles, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Hawaii.

The storm is forecast to follow a similar path as Hurricane Hector which passed safely south of Hawaii earlier this month.

The five-day forecast for Lane calls for it to weaken to tropical-storm strength south of the islands by midweek.

“Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward,” forecasters said at 11 p.m. Saturday. “Interests in those islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range forecast track and intensity errors can be large.”

PREVIOUS COVERAGE

5 p.m. Saturday

Hurricane Lane moved into the Central Pacific this afternoon as a category 4 hurricane.

Lane is located 1,050 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1,260 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. It has maximum sustained winds at 130 mph and is moving toward the west at 16 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.

A motion between west and west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

11 a.m.

Hurricane Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in the next few hours.

The category 4 hurricane is located 1,135 miles east-southeast of Hilo with winds at 140 mph. Lane is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph. A motion between west and west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

6:19 a.m.

Hurricane Lane continued to strengthen this morning, now packing maximum sustained winds of up to 140 mph with higher gusts.

As of 5 a.m. Hawaii time, Lane was located 1,230 miles east of Hilo and forecasted to reach the Central Pacific basin later today. Forecasters are predicting little change to Lane’s strength today and a gradual weakening beginning Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the eye of the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

Check back this afternoon for another update.

FRIDAY, AUG. 17

11 p.m.

Hurricane Lane has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane as it continues to head toward the Central Pacific, the National Weather Service said in its latest report.

Lane was last located 1,310 miles east-southeast of Hilo and moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. It is expected to move either west or west-northwest with a small decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph with higher gusts. It’s possible winds may strengthen even more this weekend, but a gradual weakening is forecast after.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

5:15 p.m.

The eye of Hurricane Lane has become better defined as the storm tracks westward at 16 mph, the National Weather Service said.

The eye is about 1,405 miles east-southeast of Hilo with 120 mph sustained winds and higher gusts.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for Hawaii is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane’s intensity. >> Tropical Storm: winds 39-73 mph >> Category 1: winds 74-95 mph >> Category 2: winds 96-110 mph >> Category 3: winds 111-129 mph >> Category 4: winds 130-156 mph >> Category 5: winds 157 mph and up

The storm was expected to strengthen over the next 12 hours, becoming a category 4 hurricane tonight or Saturday. Beyond that, the intensity of the storm is expected to fluctuate over the weekend.

Currently, hurricane-force winds are extending 25 miles outward with tropical storm-force winds reaching up to 105 miles from the center.

Forecasters predict Hurricane Lane will cross into the central Pacific basin on Saturday with its probable path showing the storm passing to the south of the islands.

1:10 p.m.

As Hurricane Lane is forecasted to possibly strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane on Saturday, it’s uncertain whether it will have any direct impacts to the main Hawaiian Islands when it crosses into the Central Pacific, according to the National Weather Service.

It is too soon to say, said forecaster Derek Wroe adding they will have a better handle on any possible impacts later in the weekend.

The public is reminded to have a hurricane plan in place and emergency supply kit readily on hand. “We’re in the peak of the hurricane season now,” he added.

11 a.m.

Hurricane Lane continues to rapidly grow stronger and remains on track to become a major hurricane tonight.

Packing maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, Lane was located about 1,505 miles east-southeast of Hilo at 11 a.m. and was heading west at 16 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Weather officials expect Lane to keep getting stronger over the next 24 hours, possibly becoming a Category 4 hurricane on Saturday.

Lane is expected to track between a west and west-northwest trajectory and cross into the Central Pacific on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE

Lane got significantly stronger overnight, strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane.

Now packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, Hurricane Lane was located 1,590 miles east-southeast of Hilo at 5 a.m. today and was moving west at 16 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Weather officials expect Lane to become a major hurricane tonight and to move west or west-northwest over the next few days.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for Hawaii is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane’s intensity. The scale provides examples of the type of impacts associated with wind intensity.

>> Tropical Storm: winds 39-73 mph (34-63 kt)

>> Category 1: winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt)

>> Category 2: winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt)

>> Category 3: winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt)

>> Category 4: winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt)

>> Category 5: winds 157 mph and up (137+ kt)

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from Lane’s center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. </s> Residents of Hawaii on Wednesday braced for a powerful hurricane bearing down on the US state, with warnings issued in several counties in the island chain.

President Donald Trump, in a tweet, urged residents to prepare for Hurricane Lane, which is expected to bring torrential rains, high winds and dangerous surf.

"Everyone in the path of #HurricaneLane please prepare yourselves, heed the advice of State and local officials, and follow @NWSHonolulu for updates. Be safe!," he said.

Lane weakened slightly overnight to a Category 4 storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said.

The National Weather Service said a hurricane warning has been issued for Maui County and Hawaii County while a hurricane watch was in effect in Kauai and Oahu.

"The center of Lane will move very close to or over the main Hawaiian Islands from Thursday through Saturday," it said.

It added that though Lane is forecast to weaken in the next 48 hours it will remain a dangerous hurricane as it nears the Hawaiian Islands.

"Lane is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches with isolated amounts greater than 20 inches over the Hawaiian Islands," the NWS said.

Hurricanes rarely make landfall in Hawaii and the last major storm to strike the island was nearly three decades ago, when Hurricane Iniki barrelled into the island of Kauai, leaving six people dead and $3 billion in damages.

In preparation for Hurricane Lane, state officials have closed schools and public offices in the counties affected while residents rushed to stores to stock up on water and food.

Governor David Ige on Tuesday declared a state of emergency on the Big Island to help provide relief for damage from the hurricane.

"Hurricane Lane is not a well-behaved hurricane," he said in a statement. "I´ve not seen such dramatic changes in the forecast track as I´ve seen with this storm.

"I urge our residents and visitors to take this threat seriously and prepare for a significant impact." </s> At 11 a.m. HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lane was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 144.6 West. Lane is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to persist today. Lane is expected to move westward to west-northwestward through Monday night, but at a slightly slower forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Lane is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is forecast through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

Lane has not had a distinct eye in satellite imagery since late Saturday afternoon. However, a small warm spot appears to be indicative of an eye trying to form. In addition, a 1253z SSMI microwave pass shows a small eye completely surrounded by deep convection, which suggests that Lane remains rather well organized early this morning. This is despite southwesterly vertical wind shear of near 20 knots according to the latest UW-CIMSS output, while it is close to 10 knots based on the most recent SHIPS guidance.

Lane’s initial motion for this advisory is 280/13 kt. The latest forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the right of the previous track during the 12-36 hour and 96-120 hour time periods. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane will continue to keep the system moving along the same general track during the next 12 hours, but at a slightly slower forward speed during the 24-72 hour time periods. A shift toward the west-northwest will likely begin beyond 72 hours as Lane approaches the western end of the ridge.

The latest intensity forecast has been nudged up slightly, especially during days 4 and 5. This forecast closely follows the IVCN, which shows gradual weakening from 48 through 120 hours. The ocean water temperatures will remain in the 27-28 degrees C range along the forecast track, but there may still be 10 to 15 knots of vertical wind shear through most of the forecast period. Note that the latest CIRA analysis of Ocean Heat Content shows a local maximum along the track between 72 and 96 hours. If this verifies, this may allow Lane to remain stronger than anticipated beyond day 3.

Lane is forecast to pass south of the main Hawaiian Islands Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing local impacts as it tracks west-northwestward. Interests in these islands should watch the progress of Lane closely, since long-range track and intensity forecast errors can be large.

HONOLULU — HI-EMA recommends residents and visitors take the following actions to prepare for any possible hurricane or tropical cyclone:
• Prepare an “emergency kit” of a minimum of 14 days of food, water, and other supplies.
• Talk with family members and develop a clear understanding of what you will do if a hurricane or tropical storm threatens. Prepare an action plan that includes details such as whether your family plans to shelter in place or evacuate.
• Know if your home is in an inundation zone, flood zone, or susceptible to high winds and other hazards. Know if your home is retrofitted with hurricane resistant clips or straps.
• Stay tuned to local media and their websites/applications regarding weather updates.
• Get to know your neighbors and community so you can help each other.
• Walk your property and check for potential flood threats. Clear your gutters and other drainage systems. Remove and secure loose items. Keep your car gas tanks filled.
• Prepare your pets by checking or purchasing a carrier and other preparedness items. A pet carrier is necessary for your pet’s safety if you plan to evacuate to a pet-friendly shelter. Don’t forget 14 days of food and water for your furry family members.
• Set aside an emergency supply of any needed medication and keep a copy of your prescriptions in case you run out of medication after a disaster.
• Visitors should download GoHawaii App and read the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s Travel Safety Brochure at www.travelsmarthawaii.com. </s> Powerful Hurricane Lane weakened slightly as it swirls towards Hawaii but US forecasters warn that its heavy rains and life-threatening winds still pose a major threat to the Pacific island chain.

The US Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Wednesday downgraded Hurricane Lane to a Category 4, the second-strongest on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of wind intensity.

Bearing 250km/h winds, it threatened to dump as much as 50cm of rain over parts of the islands, triggering major flash flooding and landslides.

Hawaii is already coping with the three-month eruption of Kilauea volcano on the Big Island, which was expected to start feeling the force of Lane's driving rains by late Wednesday afternoon, the Hawaii-based centre said.

It said further weakening of the cyclone was expected as it continued on a track that could see it take aim at other islands beginning early on Thursday.

"The centre of Lane will track dangerously close to the islands Thursday through Saturday," the advisory said. "Regardless of the exact track of the centre, life threatening impacts are likely in some areas as the hurricane makes its closest approach."

On Tuesday, Hawaii residents scrambled to prepare for the storm's arrival. Cars waited in long lines outside petrol stations in Honolulu and people could be seen pulling small boats from the water ahead of expected pounding surf.

Lane was about 505km south of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, at 5am Hawaii time, US forecasters said. It was expected to begin a turn towards the northwest of the island later on Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north-northwest on Thursday.

A hurricane warning was in effect for all Hawaii County and Maui county, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe. A hurricane watch was in effect for Oahu and Kauai.
Hurricane Lane strengthens to a Category 5 hurricane for around three hours as it heads toward Hawaii, before returning to Category 4.