The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above-normal 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with between 11 and 17 named storms.

NOAA is giving a 45 percent probability for an above-normal season, with a 35 percent probability for a near-normal hurricane season and a 20 percent probability for a below-normal season.

Between five to nine hurricanes are predicted, along with two to four major hurricanes.

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

"The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. </s> The Atlantic hurricane season could see between two and four major hurricanes in 2017, according to the latest forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. There's only a 20 percent chance that this season will be less active than normal, the agency says.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, but one named storm, Arlene, already hit land last month. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says it expects between 11 and 17 named storms (with sustained winds of 39 mph or higher), and from five to nine hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher) this season.

"The season could be comparable to last year, which was the most active since 2012 with 15 named storms," said Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

The Atlantic season runs through Nov. 1. Toward the end of the 2016 hurricane season, a powerful storm, Hurricane Matthew, reached Category 5 status and brought destruction and flooding to an area that ranged from Haiti to the Carolinas and beyond.

NOAA says that in its 2017 forecast, it's expecting a weak or nonexistent El Nino and near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, among other factors.

There's still "considerable uncertainty" about conditions this season, the agency says, a point illustrated by comparable predictions for an above-normal season (45 percent) and a near-normal season (35 percent).

In the eastern Pacific and central Pacific hurricane basins, NOAA predicts an 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season for both regions.

Here's the list of 21 names that will be given to strong storms this year (the list is managed by the World Meteorological Organization): </s> The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the Atlantic could see an "above-normal" hurricane season this year. That could mean more named storms.

For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, forecasters with NOAA predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.

Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher).

An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April.

Last year produced 5 land-falling storms, including Matthew that caused $10 billion in damage and killed 34 people in the U.S. and 551 in the Caribbean. It was one of the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes on record.

 

 "As a Florida resident, I am particularly proud of the important work NOAA does in weather forecasting and hurricane prediction," said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. "These forecasts are important for both public safety and business planning, and are a crucial function of the federal government."

 

 “The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

A weak or non-existent El Nino may account for the above-normal season.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season.

“NOAA’s broad range of expertise and resources support the nation with strong science and service before, during and after each storm to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy as we continue building a Weather-Ready Nation,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “From our expert modelers to our dedicated forecasters and brave crews of our hurricane hunters, we’ll be here to warn the nation every step of the way this hurricane season.” </s> • Have a family discussion about what you will do, where you will go and how you will communicate with each other when a storm threatens.
• Tune into your local news or download the FEMA app to get alerts.

Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center say the Atlantic could see another above-normal hurricane season this year.Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1. NOAA forecasters predict a 45 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 20 percent chance of a below-normal season.Forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which five to nine could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). An average season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.These numbers include Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare pre-season storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April."The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region," said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year. Warmer sea surface temperatures also tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season."Regardless of how many storms develop this year, it only takes one to disrupt our lives," said acting FEMA administrator Robert J. Fenton, Jr., who recommended the following preparedness steps:The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes and four major hurricanes.NOAA will update this outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season. </s> (CNN) — The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be “near- or above-normal” — though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms — including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes with Category 3 strength or higher — are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted.

Last year’s season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

“The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts,” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year’s storms might strike.

Harvey, Irma and Maria last year took aim, respectively, at the Houston area, Florida and Puerto Rico. They put a dramatic end to a 12-year period with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States and ranked among the top five costliest hurricanes in history.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now “ENSO-neutral conditions” — meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present — according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season,” Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, “it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season,” Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, “We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range.”

2018 season may get an early start

For now — a week ahead of the 2018 season’s official start — the hurricane center is already monitoring the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 90% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily.

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average.

Colorado State University, among the most well-regarded forecasting institutions, has predicted 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. It will update its forecast, issued last month, on May 31.

The Weather Company predicts slightly less activity than Colorado State. It forecasts a season that’s near average, with 12 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Meantime, North Carolina State University researchers expect 14 to 18 named storms, with seven to 11 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. </s> COLLEGE PARK, Md. — The federal government predicts a busy 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with 5 to 9 hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Friday. The season officially begins next Thursday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, 2 to 4 could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.



 Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year.

Meet the hurricane hunters, whose harrowing flights are all in a day's work

 So far this year, one tropical storm has already formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, which spun harmlessly in the middle of the ocean in April. The next few named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert.

Last month, the meteorologists at Colorado State University estimated 11 tropical storms will form, with four becoming hurricanes. The late Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts back in the 1980s.

The Weather Channel predicts an average season, with a total of 12 named storms expected to form, of which six will become hurricanes. AccuWeather meteorologists forecast 10 named storms, five of which are projected to become hurricanes.

This is the 25th anniversary of Andrew, which tore into South Florida on Aug. 24, 1992.

Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 14 to 20 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.

One weak eastern Pacific tropical storm, Adrian, has already spun up earlier this month.

Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

The central Pacific outlook calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. These are the storms that can sometimes affect Hawaii. </s> This year could bring above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, with potential for up to nine tropical storms that will become hurricanes – and as many as four could be considered major.

The new predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are based on a non-existent El Nino, as the presence of the climate pattern is known to suppress these storms in the Atlantic.

Forecasters say the hurricane season, from June 1 through November 30, has a 45 percent chance of above-normal activity, and a 70 percent chance of seeing 11 to 17 named storms.

Without an El Nino event this year, forecasters say hurricane activity will likely be higher than normal. In the Atlantic, this means: In the eastern and central Pacific:
• 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity
• 70 percent chance of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones in central Pacific, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes

According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s just a 35 percent chance that this hurricane season will be ‘near-normal,’ and far less likelihood (20%) that activity will be below-normal.

‘The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,’ said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The scientists are predicting 11-17 named tropical storms, meaning winds will be blowing at 39 miles per hour or higher.

Of this batch, they expect 5-9 to become hurricanes, bringing 74 mph or higher winds.

And, 2-4 of these could become major hurricanes, at category 3, 4, or 5 – meaning winds of 111 mph or higher.

‘The season could be comparable to last year, which was the most active season since 2012, with 15 named storms,’ according to Bell.

‘We don’t forecast how many storms might make landfall, because this far in advance, we really can’t predict what atmospheric conditions will be in place to steer the individual storms.’

In April, a rare pre-season storm dubbed ‘Arlene’ formed over the eastern Atlantic.

And, the World Meteorological Organization has already lined up the names for this year’s tropical storms.

After Arlene, the list includes 20 additional names, from Bret to Whitney.

HOW STORMS GET THEIR NAMES Long before the adoption of a naming system by the World Meteorological Organization, hurricanes in the West Indies were named for the particular saint’s day on which they occurred. In 1953, the US began using only female names for storms. But, the practice ended in 1978, when men’s names were added to the list as well. The WMO uses a strict naming procedure created by an international committee, according to the NOAA. Hurricanes in the Atlantic are named based on a list that rotates every six years. But, if a storm is particularly catastrophic, that particular name is ‘retired,’ meaning it is removed from the list. The 2017 list, for example, will not appear again until 2023. The World Meteorological Organization has already lined up the names for this year’s tropical storms, as seen above. Arlene occurred in April, in a rare pre-season event

The NOAA researchers say the forecast will be updated in early August ahead of the season’s peak, for more accurate predictions.

They’ve also included an outlook for hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins: an 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity is expected.

This could bring 14-20 named storms, with 6-11 expected to become hurricanes, and 3-7 with potential to become major.

The central Pacific has a 70 percent chance of seeing 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. </s> The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an above normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.

In its forecast released today, the NOAA says 10 to 16 named storms are expected, up to nine will be hurricanes, and up to four that will become Category Three or higher storms.

Hurricane season officially starts June 1st, but it may get an early start.

The National Hurricane Center is again increasing the odds that a system in the Caribbean Sea will become a tropical depression as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters now say there’s a 80-percent chance of that happening.

The post NOAA Predicts Above Normal 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season appeared first on 850 WFTL. </s> (CNN) The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be "near- or above-normal" -- though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms -- including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricaneswith Category 3 strength or higher -- are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted

Last year's season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

"The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts," US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year's storms might strike.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now "ENSO-neutral conditions" -- meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present -- according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season," Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, "it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season," Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, "We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range."

2018 season may get an early start

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 80% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States predicts a near- or above-average hurricane season for 2018.