The Christian Social Union (CSU), part of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition, has ruled the prosperous state since 1957 and now holds 101 seats in the 180-seat Landtag. Its leader, Horst Seehofer, is doubles as Germany's interior minister.

READ MORE: Bavaria Party Leader Says Region Needs Independence Amid Migrant Crisis

However, that may change soon, polls show. The latest ZDF survey predicts the CSU may suffer its second-biggest election loss; only around 34 percent of those surveyed indicated that they supported the party. The only time it fared worse was in 1950, when the right-wing party got 27.4 percent.

The ZDF survey ranked the Greens second with 19 percent, followed by the SPD with 12 percent. The centrist Free Voters (FW) and the AfD are each predicted to secure 10 percent of the vote, while the classical liberal Free Democratic Party may obtain 5.5 percent. All of them, save the far-right AfD, are potential candidates for a ruling coalition with the CSU.

The polls open at 8 a.m. (06:00 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (16:00 GMT). Nearly 9.5 million people out of the state’s 12.5 million residents are eligible to vote. </s> Bavarians were voting Sunday in a state election that was expected to deal the prosperous region’s long-dominant conservative party a stinging setback, with unpredictable consequences for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s federal government.

Some 9.5 million people are eligible to vote for the state legislature in Munich, where the Christian Social Union — an important but often-awkward Merkel ally — has held an absolute majority for all but five of the past 56 years.

Polls suggest it will lose that majority by a wide margin.

The CSU, which has taken a hard line against migration and has a socially conservative tradition, appears to be losing support on both the left and the right, with the Greens picking up liberal-minded voters and the far-right Alternative for Germany party set to win seats.

While the CSU is unlikely to lose power altogether after a 61-year reign, just needing coalition partners to govern would be a humiliating setback.

In Berlin, the CSU is one of three parties in Merkel’s federal coalition government along with its sister, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, and the center-left Social Democrats.

That alliance has been notable largely for internal squabbling since it took office in March — with the CSU leader, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, often playing a starring role. The parties are sagging in national polls, and the Social Democrats also appear set to lose significant ground Sunday.

Back in Bavaria, a long-running CSU power struggle saw the 69-year-old Seehofer give up his job as state governor this year to younger rival Markus Soeder.

Soeder wants voters to give the CSU credit for Bavaria’s enviable prosperity, with an unemployment rate of just 2.8 percent, and keep it strong to ensure stability. He has blamed goings-on in Berlin for poor poll ratings.

“Where Germany is good, Bavaria is better,” he told a rally Friday. “It is no coincidence when the results on the economy, security and finances are so clear. A country needs a backbone — in Germany, the backbone is Bavaria, but in Bavaria the backbone is the Christian Social Union.”

Regional Green co-leader Katharina Schulze says people are fed up with the politics of “hate and agitation” and “want a policy that gives courage instead of fear.”

And the far-right Alternative for Germany, which entered Germany’s national parliament only last year, is appealing to voters who want an uncompromising anti-migration, law-and-order stance.

Seehofer has sparred with Merkel about migration on and off since 2015, when he assailed her decision to leave Germany’s borders open as refugees and others crossed the Balkans. They argued in June over whether to turn back small numbers of asylum-seekers at the German-Austrian border, briefly threatening to bring down the national government.

Seehofer also starred in a coalition crisis last month over Germany’s domestic intelligence chief, who was accused of downplaying recent far-right violence against migrants.

There is widespread speculation that a poor performance Sunday could cost Seehofer his job, though he has insisted he will stay. Soeder, meanwhile, has pivoted from tough talk on migration to trying to project an inclusive image as Bavaria’s leader.

Polls put support for the CSU as low as 33 percent, down from 47.7 percent in 2013. Alternative for Germany looks set to win 10 percent or more.

The Greens are running second, with support up to 19 percent, and the Social Democrats could lose nearly half the 20.6 percent they won five years ago.

Such results would likely leave the CSU seeking a coalition with the Greens, their often-bitter opponents, or an alliance with the pro-business Free Democrats and center-right Free Voters. A four-way alliance without the CSU might be mathematically possible, but impractical.

It’s not yet clear whether the Bavarian vote will affect the national government’s stability — or Merkel’s long-term future. Its aftershocks may be delayed, because another state election is coming Oct. 28 in neighboring Hesse, where conservative Volker Bouffier is defending the 19-year hold of Merkel’s CDU party on the governor’s office.

The 64-year-old Merkel, who has led Germany since 2005, has already been weakened by government infighting and the ouster of a close ally as her party’s parliamentary leader. She will hope that poor state election results don’t create new political problems before a CDU party convention in December where her leadership is due for renewal.

“Of course I hope for a good result for the CSU,” she said Friday. “I know that we don’t live in easy times. Otherwise, I’m waiting for the result.” </s> Voters in Germany’s economically dominant southern state of Bavaria delivered a stunning rebuke to the ruling Christian Social Union, in an election that delivered another crushing blow for the parties in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition in Berlin.

With all eyes on Sunday's Bavaria election, moments ago the first exit polls showed a historic collapse for the ruling CSU party, which has ruled Bavaria continuously since 1957, and which saw its share of the vote collapse from 47.7% in the 2013 election to just 35.5%, losing its absolute majority and suffering its worst result since 1950, as voters defected in their droves to the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany.

German newspaper Welt called the election "the most painful election defeat of the past 50 years for the CSU". As predicted in the polls, the CSU experienced a "historic debacle" in the Bavarian state elections, according to Welt. The CSU was followed by the Greens which soared in the election, more than doubling to 18.5% from 8.6% in 2013, the Free Voters also rose to 11% from 9.0%, in 2013.

Meanwhile, the nationalist AfD are expecting to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time ever with 11% of the vote, and as such are setting up for their post-election party. Party leader Alice Weidel already is having the first beer in the small community of Mamming in Lower Bavaria.

Meanwhile, the other establishment party, the left-of-center SPD also saw its support collapse from 20.6% in 2013 to just 10% today.

The full initial results from an ARD exit poll are as follows:

The breakdown by gender did not show any marked variations when it comes to CSU support, although more women voted for the Greens, while far more men supported the AfD:

There was a greater variation by educational level, with highly educated voters tending more towards the green GRÜNE (G/EFA) and liberal FDP (ALDE) then the average, while low/middle educated voters tended more towards CSU (EPP) and AfD (EFDD)

This was the worst result for the CSU since 1950.

As the FT notes, the campaign was dominated by the divisive issue of immigration, in a sign of how the shockwaves from Merkel’s disastrous decision to let in more than a million refugees in 2015-16 are continuing to reverberate through German politics and to reshape the party landscape.

Alarmed by the rise of the anti-immigration, populist AfD, the CSU tried to outflank them by talking tough on immigration and picking fights with Ms Merkel over asylum policy.

But the strategy appeared to have backfired spectacularly by alienating tens of thousands of moderate CSU voters and driving them into the arms of the Greens.

Meanwhile, as support the CSU and SPD collapsed, the result confirmed the Greens’ status as the rising force in German politics. Running on a platform of open borders, liberal social values and the fight against climate change the party saw its support surge to 18.5%, from 8.4% in 2013. Meanwhile the AfD won 11%, and for the first time entered the Bavarian regional assembly.

The CSU had governed the state with an absolute majority for most of the last 60 years. “It was Bavaria and Bavaria was the CSU. That is now no longer the case.”

The latest collapse of Germany's establishment parties highlights the shaky ground the grand coalition in Berlin is now resting on as all three parties in the alliance, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, the CSU and the SPD, are haemorrhaging support. Some are now questioning whether the coalition, already frayed by personal rivalries and near constant bickering over policy, can survive a full term in office.

“This outcome throws ever more doubt on the future of the grand coalition,” said Heinrich Oberreuter, head of the Passau Journalism Institute and an expert on the CSU. “Based on current polls, if an election were held now, the CDU, CSU and SPD would not even command a majority in the Bundestag.”

The CSU will now be be forced to form a coalition government — a humiliating outcome for a party that has run Bavaria single-handedly for 49 of the last 54 years. Its preference is probably for a three-party coalition with the Free Voters, a small party that is mainly focused on local politics. It could also team up with the Greens, though it would be highly reluctant to do so: the two parties are deeply divided over immigration, transport and environmental policy.

What happens next?

Now that we know that the "unexpected comeback" scenario previewed earlier is off, here is what the "historic defeat" would mean for Germany in the coming days, as noted earlier by ING:

Historic defeat: The CSU would probably still lead the next Bavarian government with one or two coalition partners. There would be no significant shift in the federal upper house. Instead, Chancellor Merkel would emerge as the real winner of the election. The CSU would need some time to digest such an election defeat, focusing on inner-party issues and wasting less energy on conflicts with Merkel. As a result, the coalition in Berlin could again focus on implementing the substance of its coalition agreement. At the same time, however, a historic CSU defeat could be a worrying sign for Merkel, marking a new chapter in the deterioration of the conservative bloc. A significant loss would simultaneously fuel the AfD's position as a strong opposition party, illustrating the increasing frustration of some voters with established parties, a trend which would definitely complicate coalition-building at the next federal election.

It could be worse: as Deutsche Welle noted earlier, the CSU collapse could lead to Seehofer's resignation from Merkel's government, and conceivably the exit of Markus Söder, Bavaria's prime minister from the Bavarian state premiership, which would remove two of the chancellor's most outspoken critics from power, and give her room to govern in the calmer, crisis-free manner she is accustomed to.

Furthermore, the heavy loss and potentially big resignations in the CSU might push a desperate party in a more volatile, abrasive direction at the national level. That would further antagonize the SPD, the center-left junior partners in Merkel's coalition, themselves desperate for a new direction and already impatient with Seehofer's destabilizing antics, and precipitate a break-up of the age-old CDU/CSU alliance, and therefore a break-up of Merkel's grand coalition. In short: Anything could happen after Sunday, up to and including Merkel's fall. </s> Germany’s political landscape is crumbling as Merkel’s sister party, the CSU, has only received 35.5% of the votes in Bavaria, an exit poll shows. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment AfD has entered parliament for the first time.

Voters in Bavaria headed to the polls to decide on the composition of the 180-member parliament on Sunday. The Christian Social Union (CSU) – sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – gained 35.5 percent in Germany’s largest and second most populous state, according to an exit poll for broadcaster ARD.

It represents the worst election result since 1950, and a loss of its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. It means the CSU will now have to form a coalition.

The election can be seen as a blow to Merkel, since her party is not present in Bavaria at all, with the CSU effectively being the Chancellor’s ‘hand’ there. CSU, in turn, is not present in any other federal state.

The preliminary results could indicate a historic loss for the latter. It would only be the second time in its decades-long history that the party has not held an absolute majority of the seats in parliament. The last time Merkel’s allies failed to do so was in 2008, when the CSU received about 43 percent of the vote and had to enter a coalition with liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Ahead of the election, AfD MP Petr Bystron told RT that the ruling coalition “is massively losing its people,” while the AfD has “a big part of their electorate.”

The results are a major drop from the last election in 2013, which saw the CSU win an absolute majority, gaining nine seats in the local parliament, known in Bavaria as the Landtag.

The CSU loss and AFD gain are part of a wider trend happening across Germany, as Merkel has been losing support nationwide. With the breakthrough in Bavaria, the right-wing AfD is now present in 15 out of 16 federal states.

The Sunday outcome also could be an early forecast of the upcoming October 28 election in neighboring Hessen, where conservative Volker Bouffier aims to defend the 19 year hold of Merkel's CDU on the governor's office.

Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! </s> Germany's political landscape is crumbling as Merkel's sister party, the CSU, has only received 35.5% of the votes in Bavaria, an exit poll shows. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment Alternative for Germany (AfD) has entered parliament for the first time.Voters in Bavaria headed to the polls to decide on the composition of the 180-member parliament on Sunday. The Christian Social Union (CSU) - sister party to Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - gained 35.5 percent in Germany's largest and second most populous state, according to an exit poll for broadcaster ARD.It represents the worst election result since 1950, and a loss of its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. It means the CSU will now have to form a coalition.CSU General Secretary Markus Blume has called it a "bitter day for the CSU," while declining to comment on possible coalitions.Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder of the CSU also said it is "not an easy day." However, he called his party "the strongest party" and added that the most important task is to keep the country stable and governable.The election can be seen as a blow to Merkel, since her party is not present in Bavaria at all, with the CSU effectively being the Chancellor's 'hand' there. CSU, in turn, is not present in any other federal state.The preliminary results could indicate a historic loss for the latter. It would only be the second time in its decades-long history that the party has not held an absolute majority of the seats in parliament. The last time Merkel's allies failed to do so was in 2008, when the CSU received about 43 percent of the vote and had to enter a coalition with liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).Ahead of the election, AfD MP Petr Bystron told RT that the ruling coalition "is massively losing its people," while the AfD has "a big part of their electorate."The results are a major drop from the last election in 2013, which saw the CSU win an absolute majority, gaining nine seats in the local parliament, known in Bavaria as the Landtag.Projections are rolling in for the final outcomes, with Infratest Dimap forecasting that the Greens will place second at 18.5% and the Free Voters will come in third with 11.5%. Trailing behind will be the AfD (11%) and the Social Democrats (10%). In dead last will be the FDP (5%) and the Left Party (3.5%).The Sunday outcome also could be an early forecast of the upcoming October 28 election in neighboring Hessen, where conservative Volker Bouffier aims to defend the 19 year hold of Merkel's CDU on the governor's office. </s> German Chancellor Angela Merkel's arch-conservative CSU allies are bracing for heavy losses after the southern state of Bavaria went to the polls on Sunday.

The Christian Social Union (CSU), who have almost single-handedly ruled the wealthy Alpine state since the 1960s, are expected to lose their absolute majority, polls say.

'We've done all we could, we have fought hard,' said CSU state premier Markus Soeder, 51, as he cast his ballot amid high turnout from the 9.5 million eligible voters.

The other partner in Merkel's fragile 'grand coalition', the Social Democrats, were also set to do poorly in Bavaria.

But the far-right and anti-immigration AfD looked certain to enter the state assembly.

The biggest winners may be the left-leaning Greens who have doubled their poll ratings to 19 per cent since the last state elections.

If the polls are correct, they'd become the second strongest party and a possible coalition partner for the CSU.

The Bavarian election could mark another step in the demise of 'big-tent' mainstream parties and the fragmentation of the political landscape.

For Merkel, in her fourth and likely final term, it would heighten pressure two weeks before another dangerous vote, in the central state of Hesse, and ahead of a December Christian Democrats (CDU) congress where Merkel plans to run again as party chief.

'Merkel knows, no matter the election outcome, uncomfortable times lie ahead,' said the Sueddeutsche newspaper, predicting that a 'humiliated CSU will be looking for culprits ... and the name Angela Merkel will certainly fall'.

The CSU has run its campaign on economic stability and traditional conservative values in the mainly Catholic state bordering Austria, promoting crucifixes in school classrooms and opposing Islamic veils in public.

As a consistent vote winner, it has confidently co-governed in Berlin with Merkel's CDU.

But the dynamic changed after mid-2015, when Bavaria became Germany's frontline state for a mass influx of mostly Muslim refugees and migrants, half of them from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

After initial scenes of welcome, the influx sparked a xenophobic backlash that drove the nationwide rise of the AfD, which in last year's general elections took millions of votes to weaken all mainstream parties.

The CSU has since also attacked Merkel's initially liberal refugee policy with a ferocity that has grown as the Bavaria election neared, in an attempt to recapture voters drifting to the AfD.

As the spat escalated, the CSU's national Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has provoked rifts that drove her wobbly coalition to the brink of collapse.

Unusually, Merkel has been largely absent from the CSU election campaign, which in its final rally on Friday invited instead Austria's rightwing Chancellor Sebastian Kurz. </s> The German election takes place this Sunday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel heavy favourite to defend her position against Martin Schulz for a fourth term in power.

Polls currently show that Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party - with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) - will be the largest party after the Bundestag election on 24 September, but they will fall short of a majority.

This is common in Germany, and so the resulting parliament is in part determined by how the smaller parties perform, and which coalition possibilities will be born.

How does the German voting system work?

Each person casts two votes in the Bundestag election, to allocate a total of 598 seats. Half of these are to elect a local MP by constituency, in a first-past-the-post fashion.

The remaining 299 votes are elected via party lists, allocated near-proportionately to the party vote share in each of Germany’s 16 federal states.

To be included in this seat allocation process, a party must achieve five per cent of the national vote.

This second round of seat allocation also means that the total number of MPs can be higher, with politicians elected in "overhang seats" in order to balance the state- and constituency-level votes. The most recent parliament had 32 overhang seats, taking the total up to 631 MPs.

This allows voters to represent their interests locally through their chosen representative, as well as nationally in the party they feel will be strongest in the Bundestag.

In the end, the seat share for each party ends up very similar to their vote share - unlike the system used in the UK's parliamentary elections.

So who will win the German election and when will we know the results?

Merkel's CDU is looking most likely to win the most seats in the Bundestag - for the fourth election in a row.

The SPD, led by former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz, is in second place in the polls - securing around a quarter of the vote.

The AfD - the far-right Alternative for Germany party - had enjoyed a slight rise in the polls in 2016 but have since collapsed into in-fighting and unpopularity.

In reality, the CDU will have to seek a coalition agreement with the SPD or one of the other minor parties to form a government.

We should know who has won the election by 6pm BST this Sunday, when voting ends and the exit poll is released, although it won't be several more weeks until a coalition government is officially agreed.

The return of the far-right

A late surge in support has propelled the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party into third place in the opinion polls with just days to go before the ballot.

Last time around the party, fighting in it's first federal election, failed to win a constituency outright and fell just short of the five per cent required in order to secure MPs via the secondary proportional representation stage of the election.

The rise of the AfD

This time however they seem guaranteed to win representation in the Bundestag with the latest polling average putting them at slightly over 10 per cent. YouGov's Multilevel Regression with Poststratification model puts them on 12 per cent.

Were the AfD to secure a third place finish they could find themselves becoming the main opposition party in Germany if Merkel's CDU/CSU party decide to extend their Grand Coalition with the SPD.

The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been in coalition with centre-right CDU in this current government, as well as in Merkel's first term. These two parties are Germany’s biggest, leading to a union dubbed the "Grand Coalition".

The polls are currently suggesting that Germans are content with their current government, which means a Grand Coalition could happen for a third time in just four elections.

Another option is a Black-Yellow coalition, consisting of Merkel's CDU party propped up by the smaller Free Democratic Party (FDP). This would take Merkel over the target needed for a majority, and was the option the party opted for in 2009-2013.

The only situation that poses a risk to Merkel’s leadership is a left-wing "Red-Red-Green" coalition, led by the SPD's Martin Schulz. For this, he would have to gather enough seats together alongside the Linke (Left) and Grüne (Greens) parties.

What do the parties stand for? The main parties standing in the election are as follows:
• Christian Democrats (CDU): The leading party in Germany, headed by Angela Merkel. The centre-right group - made up of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) - they have employment, tax cuts and ongoing public investment at the forefront of their manifesto.
• Social Democrats (SPD): Led by Martin Schulz, the centre-left are vying to make another Grand Coalition to remain in government. The party polled well following the election of their new leader, but then suffered once again in regional polls. The SPD is a traditionally working class party, pledging investment in education and infrastructure, funded by higher taxes for the rich.
• Left (Linke): Led by Sahra Wagenknecht and loosely descended from the East German communists. This small party, often used as a protest vote, is campaigning for a rise in national minimum wage, a rejection of military missions abroad and the dissolution of NATO.
• Green (Grüne): Led by co-chairs Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Cem Özdemir, this party could be the coalition kingmakers. They rely on educated, urban citizens, focusing on the environment, taxes and social policies.
• Free Democratic Party (FDP): Led by Christian Lindner, the party was Merkel's junior coalition party in her second term. It failed to reach five per cent of the vote to allow another coalition in 2013. The party campaigns for tax cuts and to remain in financial markets - particularly within the EU.
• Alternative for Germany (AfD): A right-wing populist party lead by Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland. The party's hardline anti-EU, anti-immigration views have attracted voters from almost all of the other parties, especially among lower income households. What are the betting odds for the German Bundestag election? Political pollsters have taken a beating recently after failing to predict a British Hung Parliament in 2017, a Leave vote last summer and a Donald Trump victory in November. For those who have lost faith in polling, there is another way of predicting electoral outcomes: ask people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Many now believe that political betting markets can better predict elections, relying on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort and weigh all the probabilities. Coral's latest odds for the election have Mrs Merkel as most likely to continue as Chancellor after the election. The latest odds for the party to emerge with the most seats are: Our poll tracker takes in national polls from a range of German pollsters: INSA, Infratest Dimap, Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Allensbach and IPSOS. Their individual polls, while of different sample sizes, use nationally representative samples. Our seat share projection is based on the average of the last eight polls, excluding any parties that are polling at under five per cent, as the German proportional top-up system does. </s> Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The CSU appears to have lost support to both right and left

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative sister party has suffered huge losses in Bavaria's state election, raising new doubts about her ruling coalition.

The centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU) is set to lose its absolute majority in the state parliament, which it has dominated since 1957.

The Greens surged into second place, with nearly 17.5%.

The anti-immigration AfD is set to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time, with most votes counted.

The CSU got just over 37% - that is, more than 10% down on its 2013 result.

It was also a bitter night for Germany's decades-old centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who slumped to just 9.7%. They and the CSU are in a fragile coalition with Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU).

Bavaria result: Merkel's three challenges

The CSU appears to have suffered from the row over immigration policy earlier this year between Mrs Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader and German interior minister.

He said it was "not a nice day" but added it was only "one side of the coin" as the vote gives "a clear mandate" allowing the CSU to form a new government.

Image copyright AFP Image caption Many voters who disliked the tone of the migration debate may have turned to the Greens

There are signs that the CSU is leaning towards forming a Bavarian coalition with the right-leaning Free Voters (FW), a new independent party that won 11.6%. That would be a closer alignment than governing with the Greens.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) came fourth with about 10%. It means AfD will have seats in 15 of Germany's 16 state parliaments.

German commentators say the parties in Mrs Merkel's coalition will strive to avoid any further splits ahead of another big state election - in Hesse on 28 October, currently run by the CDU.

SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed her party's poor performance in Bavaria on squabbling within the coalition.

Rightward shift backfires

By Jenny Hill, BBC News, Bavaria

It was a terrible night for Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party.

The CSU has reigned supreme for decades in what is conservative country. But recent attempts to harden its tone and policies on migration, which included picking high-profile fights with Mrs Merkel, appear to have backfired.

It's bad news for Mrs Merkel too. Bavaria reflects what's happening at national level, the dwindling popularity of the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties.

Much may now depend on the results in Hesse in a fortnight. The CDU is also losing support. Its general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that what had happened in Bavaria was a warning.

Bavaria key facts

Nearly 13 million residents and the biggest by area of Germany's 16 federal states

Its capital Munich is Germany's third-largest city, after Berlin and Hamburg

Second-highest GDP out of 16 German states

Historically conservative region, with strong Catholic and local traditions

Industrial powerhouse: car and IT sectors especially strong, rich in family-run firms

What happened to the CSU?

AfD's success in Bavaria has not been as great as in eastern Germany but it appears to have taken large numbers of votes from the CSU.

But by echoing some of the AfD's hardline policies such as on migration, the CSU also seems to have lost the support of more moderate voters.

The CSU's Markus Söder, current Bavarian prime minister, said the projected result was painful but the party should learn from it.

"We have to analyse the changes taking place both in Bavaria and in society," he said.

"One of the most important jobs we now have is to ensure that this state is stable, governable, and remains as strong as it is now."

Some German commentators say the CSU now has an old-fashioned image for many voters.

The BBC's Jenny Hill in Bavaria says the election illustrates the complexity of the challenge faced by so many of Europe's large established parties.

It's not simply the rise of the far right, she says, but that voters are walking away in favour of smaller, newer movements. </s> BERLIN
• German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition government looked more fragile than ever yesterday after two of its three parties suffered severe election setbacks in the state of Bavaria.

The polls debacle for the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Germany ( SPD) cast a dark cloud over Dr Merkel's troubled grand coalition, dubbed the "GroKo", which has been plagued by infighting, mostly about immigration.

"The Bavaria election has made an early end to the GroKo much more likely," said Der Spiegel about the alliance Dr Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) forged in March after half a year of painful negotiations. "Two of three partners in the GroKo have suffered brutal losses. The third, Angela Merkel's CDU, fears the consequences."

Dr Merkel said yesterday the heavy losses for her conservative allies showed that voters had lost trust in the government, and she promised to fight to regain it.

"My lesson from this is that I, as Chancellor, must make sure that trust is won back. I will work on that with as much vigour as I can," she said at an event of German industry representatives.

In Sunday's elections, the CSU from Dr Merkel's conservative camp took a 10-point dive to 37 per cent, losing its absolute majority in the Alpine state it has ruled since the 1960s.

Her other national coalition partner, the centre-left SPD, dropped to 9.7 per cent, halving its support in the party's worst-ever result in any state polls.

The biggest winners were the Greens, who surged to become Bavaria's second-strongest party with 17.5 per cent, drawing support especially in big cities like Munich.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has railed against Dr Merkel's 2015 decision to keep open German borders to a mass influx of refugees and migrants, scored 10 per cent.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel jubilantly declared that Dr Merkel's government "is not a grand coalition, but a mini coalition", and demanded that she "clear the way for new elections".

The Bavaria polls result shattered old certainties for the CSU, which has ruled almost single-handedly for decades in the southern state known for its fairytale castles, Oktoberfest and crucifixes on classroom walls. Since the mass migrant influx, in which Bavaria was Germany's front-line state, the party has hardened its usual folksy beerhall politics with tougher anti-immigration positions.

Nonetheless, the CSU and other mainstream parties suffered heavy losses in last year's general elections to the AfD, which became the first right-wing extremist party to enter the German national Parliament in significant numbers.

The CSU's Interior Minister Horst Seehofer has harshly criticised Dr Merkel and the SPD over their more liberal stance on immigration, repeatedly bringing their alliance to the brink of collapse.

After Sunday's elections, Mr Seehofer, 69, insisted that he would stay on as Dr Merkel's Interior Minister.

The SPD's deputy leader Ralf Stegner told Phoenix TV that "the citizens delivered a resounding slap" to the governing parties.

In Berlin, the GroKo leaders, still stunned by what was widely dubbed Bavaria's electoral earthquake, are now nervously looking ahead to another landmark regional vote at the end of the month.

Voters go to the polls on Oct 28 in central Hesse state, home to financial hub Frankfurt, where surveys show Merkel ally Volker Bouffier will face an uphill battle to stay on as state premier.
Voters in Bavaria, Germany go to the polls for electing the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria, with the Christian-democratic conservative CSU party suffering significant losses.