BERLIN (Reuters) - Support for Germany’s opposition Greens has fallen to its lowest level in almost 15 years, a Forsa poll showed on Wednesday, hitting the chances of a left-leaning coalition snatching power from Chancellor Angela Merkel in September’s election.

The survey for magazine Stern and broadcaster RTL showed the Greens shedding one point to 6 percent - its weakest reading in that poll since August 2002. That leaves it hovering just above the 5 percent threshold that parties need to enter the national parliament.

Another survey by pollster INSA published on Wednesday also showed the Greens on 6 percent - behind the Free Democrats (FDP) who were on 6.5 percent and so on track to return to parliament after crashing out of it in the 2013 election.

Some polls have suggested a left-leaning ‘red-red-green’ alliance of the Social Democrats (SPD), the far-left Linke party and the environmentalist Greens could emerge after a Sept. 24 election.

The Forsa survey showed Merkel’s conservatives unchanged compared with the previous week on 36 percent while the Social Democrats remained on 30 percent.

The far-left Linke gained one point to 9 percent. It also improved by half a percentage point in the INSA survey to 9 percent.

The anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) was unchanged in both surveys, on 8 percent in the Forsa survey and 10 percent in the INSA survey. The party has lost momentum as migrant arrivals have dropped, infighting has taken hold. The SPD has picked up since naming Martin Schulz as its candidate to run against Merkel.

But even support for him seems to be waning - the Forsa survey showed support for Schulz under the 30 percent level in that poll for the first time since being nominated as the SPD’s candidate. If there were a direct vote for chancellor, 29 percent would pick him - 3 percentage points below the previous week’s level.

That compares with 44 percent of Germans who would vote for Merkel in such a direct vote - 1 point more than last week. </s> Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The CSU appears to have lost support to both right and left

Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative sister party has suffered huge losses in Bavaria's state election, raising new doubts about her ruling coalition.

The centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU) is set to lose its absolute majority in the state parliament, which it has dominated since 1957.

The Greens surged into second place, with nearly 17.5%.

The anti-immigration AfD is set to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time, with most votes counted.

The CSU got just over 37% - that is, more than 10% down on its 2013 result.

It was also a bitter night for Germany's decades-old centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), who slumped to just 9.7%. They and the CSU are in a fragile coalition with Mrs Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU).

Bavaria result: Merkel's three challenges

The CSU appears to have suffered from the row over immigration policy earlier this year between Mrs Merkel and Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader and German interior minister.

He said it was "not a nice day" but added it was only "one side of the coin" as the vote gives "a clear mandate" allowing the CSU to form a new government.

Image copyright AFP Image caption Many voters who disliked the tone of the migration debate may have turned to the Greens

There are signs that the CSU is leaning towards forming a Bavarian coalition with the right-leaning Free Voters (FW), a new independent party that won 11.6%. That would be a closer alignment than governing with the Greens.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) came fourth with about 10%. It means AfD will have seats in 15 of Germany's 16 state parliaments.

German commentators say the parties in Mrs Merkel's coalition will strive to avoid any further splits ahead of another big state election - in Hesse on 28 October, currently run by the CDU.

SPD leader Andrea Nahles blamed her party's poor performance in Bavaria on squabbling within the coalition.

Rightward shift backfires

By Jenny Hill, BBC News, Bavaria

It was a terrible night for Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party.

The CSU has reigned supreme for decades in what is conservative country. But recent attempts to harden its tone and policies on migration, which included picking high-profile fights with Mrs Merkel, appear to have backfired.

It's bad news for Mrs Merkel too. Bavaria reflects what's happening at national level, the dwindling popularity of the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties.

Much may now depend on the results in Hesse in a fortnight. The CDU is also losing support. Its general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that what had happened in Bavaria was a warning.

Bavaria key facts

Nearly 13 million residents and the biggest by area of Germany's 16 federal states

Its capital Munich is Germany's third-largest city, after Berlin and Hamburg

Second-highest GDP out of 16 German states

Historically conservative region, with strong Catholic and local traditions

Industrial powerhouse: car and IT sectors especially strong, rich in family-run firms

What happened to the CSU?

AfD's success in Bavaria has not been as great as in eastern Germany but it appears to have taken large numbers of votes from the CSU.

But by echoing some of the AfD's hardline policies such as on migration, the CSU also seems to have lost the support of more moderate voters.

The CSU's Markus Söder, current Bavarian prime minister, said the projected result was painful but the party should learn from it.

"We have to analyse the changes taking place both in Bavaria and in society," he said.

"One of the most important jobs we now have is to ensure that this state is stable, governable, and remains as strong as it is now."

Some German commentators say the CSU now has an old-fashioned image for many voters.

The BBC's Jenny Hill in Bavaria says the election illustrates the complexity of the challenge faced by so many of Europe's large established parties.

It's not simply the rise of the far right, she says, but that voters are walking away in favour of smaller, newer movements. </s> Voters in Germany’s economically dominant southern state of Bavaria delivered a stunning rebuke to the ruling Christian Social Union, in an election that delivered another crushing blow for the parties in Angela Merkel’s grand coalition in Berlin.

With all eyes on Sunday's Bavaria election, moments ago the first exit polls showed a historic collapse for the ruling CSU party, which has ruled Bavaria continuously since 1957, and which saw its share of the vote collapse from 47.7% in the 2013 election to just 35.5%, losing its absolute majority and suffering its worst result since 1950, as voters defected in their droves to the Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany.

German newspaper Welt called the election "the most painful election defeat of the past 50 years for the CSU". As predicted in the polls, the CSU experienced a "historic debacle" in the Bavarian state elections, according to Welt. The CSU was followed by the Greens which soared in the election, more than doubling to 18.5% from 8.6% in 2013, the Free Voters also rose to 11% from 9.0%, in 2013.

Meanwhile, the nationalist AfD are expecting to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time ever with 11% of the vote, and as such are setting up for their post-election party. Party leader Alice Weidel already is having the first beer in the small community of Mamming in Lower Bavaria.

Meanwhile, the other establishment party, the left-of-center SPD also saw its support collapse from 20.6% in 2013 to just 10% today.

The full initial results from an ARD exit poll are as follows:

The breakdown by gender did not show any marked variations when it comes to CSU support, although more women voted for the Greens, while far more men supported the AfD:

There was a greater variation by educational level, with highly educated voters tending more towards the green GRÜNE (G/EFA) and liberal FDP (ALDE) then the average, while low/middle educated voters tended more towards CSU (EPP) and AfD (EFDD)

This was the worst result for the CSU since 1950.

As the FT notes, the campaign was dominated by the divisive issue of immigration, in a sign of how the shockwaves from Merkel’s disastrous decision to let in more than a million refugees in 2015-16 are continuing to reverberate through German politics and to reshape the party landscape.

Alarmed by the rise of the anti-immigration, populist AfD, the CSU tried to outflank them by talking tough on immigration and picking fights with Ms Merkel over asylum policy.

But the strategy appeared to have backfired spectacularly by alienating tens of thousands of moderate CSU voters and driving them into the arms of the Greens.

Meanwhile, as support the CSU and SPD collapsed, the result confirmed the Greens’ status as the rising force in German politics. Running on a platform of open borders, liberal social values and the fight against climate change the party saw its support surge to 18.5%, from 8.4% in 2013. Meanwhile the AfD won 11%, and for the first time entered the Bavarian regional assembly.

The CSU had governed the state with an absolute majority for most of the last 60 years. “It was Bavaria and Bavaria was the CSU. That is now no longer the case.”

The latest collapse of Germany's establishment parties highlights the shaky ground the grand coalition in Berlin is now resting on as all three parties in the alliance, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, the CSU and the SPD, are haemorrhaging support. Some are now questioning whether the coalition, already frayed by personal rivalries and near constant bickering over policy, can survive a full term in office.

“This outcome throws ever more doubt on the future of the grand coalition,” said Heinrich Oberreuter, head of the Passau Journalism Institute and an expert on the CSU. “Based on current polls, if an election were held now, the CDU, CSU and SPD would not even command a majority in the Bundestag.”

The CSU will now be be forced to form a coalition government — a humiliating outcome for a party that has run Bavaria single-handedly for 49 of the last 54 years. Its preference is probably for a three-party coalition with the Free Voters, a small party that is mainly focused on local politics. It could also team up with the Greens, though it would be highly reluctant to do so: the two parties are deeply divided over immigration, transport and environmental policy.

What happens next?

Now that we know that the "unexpected comeback" scenario previewed earlier is off, here is what the "historic defeat" would mean for Germany in the coming days, as noted earlier by ING:

Historic defeat: The CSU would probably still lead the next Bavarian government with one or two coalition partners. There would be no significant shift in the federal upper house. Instead, Chancellor Merkel would emerge as the real winner of the election. The CSU would need some time to digest such an election defeat, focusing on inner-party issues and wasting less energy on conflicts with Merkel. As a result, the coalition in Berlin could again focus on implementing the substance of its coalition agreement. At the same time, however, a historic CSU defeat could be a worrying sign for Merkel, marking a new chapter in the deterioration of the conservative bloc. A significant loss would simultaneously fuel the AfD's position as a strong opposition party, illustrating the increasing frustration of some voters with established parties, a trend which would definitely complicate coalition-building at the next federal election.

It could be worse: as Deutsche Welle noted earlier, the CSU collapse could lead to Seehofer's resignation from Merkel's government, and conceivably the exit of Markus Söder, Bavaria's prime minister from the Bavarian state premiership, which would remove two of the chancellor's most outspoken critics from power, and give her room to govern in the calmer, crisis-free manner she is accustomed to.

Furthermore, the heavy loss and potentially big resignations in the CSU might push a desperate party in a more volatile, abrasive direction at the national level. That would further antagonize the SPD, the center-left junior partners in Merkel's coalition, themselves desperate for a new direction and already impatient with Seehofer's destabilizing antics, and precipitate a break-up of the age-old CDU/CSU alliance, and therefore a break-up of Merkel's grand coalition. In short: Anything could happen after Sunday, up to and including Merkel's fall. </s> Bavarians were voting Sunday in a state election that was expected to deal the prosperous region’s long-dominant conservative party a stinging setback, with unpredictable consequences for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s federal government.

Some 9.5 million people are eligible to vote for the state legislature in Munich, where the Christian Social Union — an important but often-awkward Merkel ally — has held an absolute majority for all but five of the past 56 years.

Polls suggest it will lose that majority by a wide margin.

The CSU, which has taken a hard line against migration and has a socially conservative tradition, appears to be losing support on both the left and the right, with the Greens picking up liberal-minded voters and the far-right Alternative for Germany party set to win seats.

While the CSU is unlikely to lose power altogether after a 61-year reign, just needing coalition partners to govern would be a humiliating setback.

In Berlin, the CSU is one of three parties in Merkel’s federal coalition government along with its sister, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, and the center-left Social Democrats.

That alliance has been notable largely for internal squabbling since it took office in March — with the CSU leader, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, often playing a starring role. The parties are sagging in national polls, and the Social Democrats also appear set to lose significant ground Sunday.

Back in Bavaria, a long-running CSU power struggle saw the 69-year-old Seehofer give up his job as state governor this year to younger rival Markus Soeder.

Soeder wants voters to give the CSU credit for Bavaria’s enviable prosperity, with an unemployment rate of just 2.8 percent, and keep it strong to ensure stability. He has blamed goings-on in Berlin for poor poll ratings.

“Where Germany is good, Bavaria is better,” he told a rally Friday. “It is no coincidence when the results on the economy, security and finances are so clear. A country needs a backbone — in Germany, the backbone is Bavaria, but in Bavaria the backbone is the Christian Social Union.”

Regional Green co-leader Katharina Schulze says people are fed up with the politics of “hate and agitation” and “want a policy that gives courage instead of fear.”

And the far-right Alternative for Germany, which entered Germany’s national parliament only last year, is appealing to voters who want an uncompromising anti-migration, law-and-order stance.

Seehofer has sparred with Merkel about migration on and off since 2015, when he assailed her decision to leave Germany’s borders open as refugees and others crossed the Balkans. They argued in June over whether to turn back small numbers of asylum-seekers at the German-Austrian border, briefly threatening to bring down the national government.

Seehofer also starred in a coalition crisis last month over Germany’s domestic intelligence chief, who was accused of downplaying recent far-right violence against migrants.

There is widespread speculation that a poor performance Sunday could cost Seehofer his job, though he has insisted he will stay. Soeder, meanwhile, has pivoted from tough talk on migration to trying to project an inclusive image as Bavaria’s leader.

Polls put support for the CSU as low as 33 percent, down from 47.7 percent in 2013. Alternative for Germany looks set to win 10 percent or more.

The Greens are running second, with support up to 19 percent, and the Social Democrats could lose nearly half the 20.6 percent they won five years ago.

Such results would likely leave the CSU seeking a coalition with the Greens, their often-bitter opponents, or an alliance with the pro-business Free Democrats and center-right Free Voters. A four-way alliance without the CSU might be mathematically possible, but impractical.

It’s not yet clear whether the Bavarian vote will affect the national government’s stability — or Merkel’s long-term future. Its aftershocks may be delayed, because another state election is coming Oct. 28 in neighboring Hesse, where conservative Volker Bouffier is defending the 19-year hold of Merkel’s CDU party on the governor’s office.

The 64-year-old Merkel, who has led Germany since 2005, has already been weakened by government infighting and the ouster of a close ally as her party’s parliamentary leader. She will hope that poor state election results don’t create new political problems before a CDU party convention in December where her leadership is due for renewal.

“Of course I hope for a good result for the CSU,” she said Friday. “I know that we don’t live in easy times. Otherwise, I’m waiting for the result.” </s> Germany's political landscape is crumbling as Merkel's sister party, the CSU, has only received 35.5% of the votes in Bavaria, an exit poll shows. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment Alternative for Germany (AfD) has entered parliament for the first time.Voters in Bavaria headed to the polls to decide on the composition of the 180-member parliament on Sunday. The Christian Social Union (CSU) - sister party to Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) - gained 35.5 percent in Germany's largest and second most populous state, according to an exit poll for broadcaster ARD.It represents the worst election result since 1950, and a loss of its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. It means the CSU will now have to form a coalition.CSU General Secretary Markus Blume has called it a "bitter day for the CSU," while declining to comment on possible coalitions.Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder of the CSU also said it is "not an easy day." However, he called his party "the strongest party" and added that the most important task is to keep the country stable and governable.The election can be seen as a blow to Merkel, since her party is not present in Bavaria at all, with the CSU effectively being the Chancellor's 'hand' there. CSU, in turn, is not present in any other federal state.The preliminary results could indicate a historic loss for the latter. It would only be the second time in its decades-long history that the party has not held an absolute majority of the seats in parliament. The last time Merkel's allies failed to do so was in 2008, when the CSU received about 43 percent of the vote and had to enter a coalition with liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).Ahead of the election, AfD MP Petr Bystron told RT that the ruling coalition "is massively losing its people," while the AfD has "a big part of their electorate."The results are a major drop from the last election in 2013, which saw the CSU win an absolute majority, gaining nine seats in the local parliament, known in Bavaria as the Landtag.Projections are rolling in for the final outcomes, with Infratest Dimap forecasting that the Greens will place second at 18.5% and the Free Voters will come in third with 11.5%. Trailing behind will be the AfD (11%) and the Social Democrats (10%). In dead last will be the FDP (5%) and the Left Party (3.5%).The Sunday outcome also could be an early forecast of the upcoming October 28 election in neighboring Hessen, where conservative Volker Bouffier aims to defend the 19 year hold of Merkel's CDU on the governor's office. </s> The Christian Social Union (CSU), part of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s governing coalition, has ruled the prosperous state since 1957 and now holds 101 seats in the 180-seat Landtag. Its leader, Horst Seehofer, is doubles as Germany's interior minister.

READ MORE: Bavaria Party Leader Says Region Needs Independence Amid Migrant Crisis

However, that may change soon, polls show. The latest ZDF survey predicts the CSU may suffer its second-biggest election loss; only around 34 percent of those surveyed indicated that they supported the party. The only time it fared worse was in 1950, when the right-wing party got 27.4 percent.

The ZDF survey ranked the Greens second with 19 percent, followed by the SPD with 12 percent. The centrist Free Voters (FW) and the AfD are each predicted to secure 10 percent of the vote, while the classical liberal Free Democratic Party may obtain 5.5 percent. All of them, save the far-right AfD, are potential candidates for a ruling coalition with the CSU.

The polls open at 8 a.m. (06:00 GMT) and close at 6 p.m. (16:00 GMT). Nearly 9.5 million people out of the state’s 12.5 million residents are eligible to vote. </s> Germany’s political landscape is crumbling as Merkel’s sister party, the CSU, has only received 35.5% of the votes in Bavaria, an exit poll shows. Meanwhile, the anti-establishment AfD has entered parliament for the first time.

Voters in Bavaria headed to the polls to decide on the composition of the 180-member parliament on Sunday. The Christian Social Union (CSU) – sister party to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – gained 35.5 percent in Germany’s largest and second most populous state, according to an exit poll for broadcaster ARD.

It represents the worst election result since 1950, and a loss of its absolute majority for only the second time since 1962. It means the CSU will now have to form a coalition.

The election can be seen as a blow to Merkel, since her party is not present in Bavaria at all, with the CSU effectively being the Chancellor’s ‘hand’ there. CSU, in turn, is not present in any other federal state.

The preliminary results could indicate a historic loss for the latter. It would only be the second time in its decades-long history that the party has not held an absolute majority of the seats in parliament. The last time Merkel’s allies failed to do so was in 2008, when the CSU received about 43 percent of the vote and had to enter a coalition with liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP).

Ahead of the election, AfD MP Petr Bystron told RT that the ruling coalition “is massively losing its people,” while the AfD has “a big part of their electorate.”

The results are a major drop from the last election in 2013, which saw the CSU win an absolute majority, gaining nine seats in the local parliament, known in Bavaria as the Landtag.

The CSU loss and AFD gain are part of a wider trend happening across Germany, as Merkel has been losing support nationwide. With the breakthrough in Bavaria, the right-wing AfD is now present in 15 out of 16 federal states.

The Sunday outcome also could be an early forecast of the upcoming October 28 election in neighboring Hessen, where conservative Volker Bouffier aims to defend the 19 year hold of Merkel's CDU on the governor's office.

Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! </s> Image copyright EPA Image caption Andrea Nahles's SPD suffered heavy losses in last week's European elections

Andrea Nahles has announced she will resign as leader of Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD).

It comes after the centre-left party came third, behind the Greens and Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), in the European elections.

Ms Nahles had been heavily criticised by the SPD's left for remaining in coalition with Ms Merkel's party.

CDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer warned the SPD not to endanger the coalition government.

"I assume the SPD will undergo a succession in short order without hindrance to the functioning of the grand coalition," she said.

"In the CDU we believe that this is not the time to play politics. We want to serve our country with good governing policies."

Ms Nahles said she would quit as party leader on Monday, and as head of its parliamentary group on Tuesday.

In a statement released by the SPD on Sunday she said: "The discussions within the parliamentary faction and feedback from within the party have shown me that I no longer have the necessary support to carry out my duties."

She had earlier announced that the leadership contest would take place on Tuesday.

Her resignation comes as a surprise. She became party leader in April last year, and was expected to run for the position again.

In last week's European Union parliamentary elections, her party hit an all-time low, getting less than 16% of the vote.

And on Saturday, an opinion poll showed that support for the SPD was the lowest it had ever been, at just 12%. At the same time, the Greens were shown to have overtaken the conservative CDU as Germany's most popular party for the first time.

What does this mean for the ruling coalition?

Ms Nahles' resignation could threaten the current government.

If the SPD were to quit the coalition, the fall of the government would be likely to trigger fresh elections.

Image copyright AFP Image caption Vice Chancellor Olaf Scholz, of the SPD, speaks with Chancellor Angela Merkel

But the left wing of the SPD has been urging the party to leave the coalition since it entered into government with Ms Merkel last year. They say that compromising with conservatives has been costing them support.

The SPD's Olaf Scholz, who is also Germany's vice-chancellor, told the Tagesspiegel newspaper that he has ruled out entering another such coalition.

"Three grand coalitions in a row would not do democracy in Germany any good," he said in the interview published on Sunday, before Ms Nahles announced her resignation. </s> DUESSELDORF, Germany, May 14 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives defeated the ruling Social Democrats (SPD) in a key state election on Sunday, exit polls showed, boosting their hopes of retaining power in September's national vote.

The Christian Democrats (CDU) saw a strong surge of support in Germany's most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), which is home to one in five German voters and has often been a national trend-setter in elections.

The CDU won 34.5 percent, up from 26.3 percent in 2012, according to an exit poll on public broadcaster ARD just after polls closed.

The SPD, which has ruled NRW for most of the past half century, fell to 30.5 percent from 39.1 percent. It was the third straight state defeat for the SPD since March, casting a shadow over their once bright hopes of denying Merkel a fourth four-year term in the national election on Sept. 24.

It was not clear whether the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the CDU's preferred partners projected to win 12 percent, had enough votes for the two allies to form a majority in the state.

What was clear is that the ruling SPD-Greens coalition fell far short of a majority as the Greens won about 6 percent, down from 11.3 percent in 2012. The nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has no coalition allies, won 7.5 percent.

"This is a great day for North Rhine-Westphalia," said local CDU leader Armin Laschet, who will most likely become state premier. "We accomplished our two goals: defeating the SPD-Greens coalition and becoming the strongest party in the state."

SPD state premier Hannelore Kraft quickly conceded defeat and said she would stand down as her party's local leader.

"It's sad we lost so many districts. I take personal responsibility for this defeat ...," she said.

The SPD's national leader and its candidate for chancellor in the September election, Martin Schulz, was equally gloomy.

"This is a difficult day for the SPD and a difficult day for me personally. It´s my home state where we suffered a bitter defeat. We lost an important state election," he told reporters.

Merkel, whose re-election hopes earlier this year seemed to be uncertain due to the initial popularity of Schulz when he took over the SPD leadership, managed to revive her fortunes over the last two months with a victory in Saarland on March 26 and an upset defeat of the ruling SPD in Schleswig-Holstein.

The CDU unseated the SPD in NRW in May 2005, prompting a snap federal election. The conservatives won the national election, giving Merkel her first term as chancellor.

The SPD has ruled NRW for 46 of the last 51 years. The CDU only ruled in NRW for five years during that half century, from 2005 until 2010. (Writing by Joseph Nasr; Editing by Gareth Jones)
A Forsa Institute poll shows the lowest level of support for the Greens in nearly 15 years, weakening the chances of a left-leaning coalition taking power from the CDU/CSU.