GENEVA, Nov 27 (Reuters) - There is a 75-80 percent chance of a weak El Nino weather pattern forming by February and slightly lower odds that it will continue through the northern hemisphere winter of 2018/19, the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday. The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacifc that typically occurs every few years, occurred from 2015/2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods. (Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay, editing by Tom Miles) </s> Image copyright NOAA/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY Image caption An image showing the 2015 El Niño with rising temperatures in the Pacific

The World Meteorological Organization says there's a 75-80% chance of a weak El Niño forming within three months.

The naturally occurring event causes changes in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and has a major influence on weather patterns around the world.

It is linked to floods in South America and droughts in Africa and Asia.

El Niño events often lead to record temperatures as heat rises from the Pacific.

According to the WMO update, sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October. However the atmosphere has not yet responded to the extra warmth that's produced by the upwelling seas.

Scientists have been predicting the likelihood of a new event since May this year, with confidence increasing.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology are now estimating that an El Niño event will start in December. US forecasters are saying there's a 90% chance of the event starting in January.

Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Droughts in some places and floods in many others are linked to El Niño

The WMO models are say that a fully fledged El Niño is estimated to be 75-80% likely between December and February 2019.

At this point, the WMO says its predictions for the event range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength event with sea surface temperatures peaking between 0.8C to 1.2C above average.

The chance of a strong event are currently low.

"The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world," said Maxx Dilley, director of WMO's Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch.

"Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health, and it may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures," he said.

In terms of food security, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have issued a report detailing the countries that could suffer food shortages as a result of the event. </s> GENEVA (Reuters) - There is a 75-80 percent chance of a weak El Nino weather pattern forming by February and a slightly lower likelihood that it will continue through the northern hemisphere winter of 2018-19, the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday.

Its forecast, based on models from around the world, was in line with that of a U.S. government arm, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, earlier this month.

An El Nino - a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically happens every few years - last occurred in 2015-2016 and caused weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

“The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world,” Maxx Dilley, director of WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch, said in a statement.

“Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health, and it may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures,” he said. </s> There is a 75-80 percent chance of an El Niño weather pattern forming by February, the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted.

The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, last happened from 2015/2016 and led to weather-related crop damage, fires and flash floods.

However, forecasters say next years event is predicted to be far weaker.

'The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world,' said Maxx Dilley, director of WMO's Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch.

'Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health.

'It may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures,'

Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized, the WMO said.

It also indicated that precipitation patterns predicted for December-February resemble those normally associated with El Niño.

Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October 2018.

However, the atmosphere has not yet responded to this additional warmth, and the upper level winds, cloud and sea level pressure patterns do not yet reflect typical El Niño features.

Model forecasts suggest that this will change within the coming month or two.

Model predictions of the strength of the El Niño range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures peaking at approximately 0.8 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average.

The chance for a strong event (sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific rising to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average) is currently low.

Above-normal precipitation is favoured in part of southern North America, part of southeast South America, part of northwest North America, central and northern Asia, part of southwest Asia, part of the eastern Maritime Continent, and part of Europe.

Near-normal precipitation is favoured in parts of interior northern tropical Africa. </s> NEW YORK, Sept 8 (Reuters) – A U.S. government weather forecaster said Thursday La Nina conditions were no longer likely to develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016/17, saying neutral conditions were more likely.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in a monthly forecast there was a 55 to 60 percent chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, meaning La Nina was no longer favored to occur.

Last month, CPC said La Nina conditions were slightly favored to occur, with a 55 to 60 percent chance of developing during the fall and winter of 2016/17.

La Nina, which tends to occur unpredictably every two to seven years, is characterized by unusually cold temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The CPC’s predictions follow a damaging El Nino weather period. While typically less harsh than El Nino, severe La Nina occurrences have been linked to floods and droughts that can roil commodity markets.

The reduced chances of La Nina will be welcomed by producers of corn and soybeans in Brazil and Argentina, where La Nina conditions can cause dry weather that hurts harvests, said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA Information Systems.

“It would certainly benefit South America…they would see wetter conditions there,” Keeney said, adding that rubber producers in Indonesia could also benefit.

But the return of neutral conditions could harm cotton growers in India, the world’s largest producer of the fiber. La Nina tends to boost monsoon rains, and fading La Nina forecasts have led to lower precipitation expectations.

Keeney said the adjusted forecast could mean better chances of winter precipitation in drought-stricken California, but that it was too early to say for sure.

The CPC first warned that La Nina could develop in February, and maintained that such conditions were likely in each monthly forecast since then.

In June, the agency said there was a 75 percent chance La Nina would develop, though it lowered that outlook in subsequent months.

It said Thursday the average of its models favored “borderline neutral-La Nina Conditions,” but added that its more recent models more strongly favored ENSO-neutral conditions. </s> (CNN) The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be "near- or above-normal" -- though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms -- including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricaneswith Category 3 strength or higher -- are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted

Last year's season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

"The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts," US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year's storms might strike.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now "ENSO-neutral conditions" -- meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present -- according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season," Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, "it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season," Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, "We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range."

2018 season may get an early start

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 80% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average. </s> 00:38 Dorian Leaves Colder Waters in its Wake Dorian leaves behind colder waters, meteorologist Danielle Banks explains.

At a Glance The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has begun a week early.

Tropical Depression One-E formed Thursday afternoon in the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

This system will pose no threat to land and is not expected to become a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression One-E formed on Thursday afternoon well off the west coast of Mexico, kicking off the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which doesn't officially begin until May 15.

The tropical depression is currently centered more than 1,400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California.​​​​​​

Additional strengthening is not expected as One-E is approaching an area of stronger wind shear to its west.

Tropical Depression One-E will, therefore, be short-lived, and given it's far from land and has weak steering winds, it will be no threat to land as it drifts toward the west-northwest through Friday night.

Though not expected, if the depression were to become a tropical storm, it would earn the first name of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season: Aletta.

(MORE: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook )

Another Early Start?

This is a case of déjà vu.

One year ago Wednesday, Tropical Storm Adrian became the earliest tropical cyclone on record to form in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

Adrian became a tropical depression, then strengthened to a tropical storm on May 9, 2017, south of the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Guatemala before wind shear tore it apart the following day.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, beginning roughly two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center, an average Eastern Pacific season has its first named storm by the second week of June .

Since 2000, however, 19 named storms have formed in May in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Nine of those storms eventually became hurricanes and six became major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger ).

(MORE: When the Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Early )

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/epac-may-storms-2000-2016.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0" srcset="https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/epac-may-storms-2000-2016.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 400w, https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/epac-may-storms-2000-2016.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 800w" > Tracks of all Eastern Pacific named storms to form in May from 2000 to 2016. (NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks) (NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)

And, unlike the current system, some of these storms had land impact.

Five of those May storms made landfall either in southeastern Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec or in Central America. One of these, Barbara in 2013, made landfall as a hurricane along the Gulf of Tehuantepec coast.

The 2015 Eastern Pacific hurricane season got off to a record start , including a frenetic May, fueled by an intensifying El Niño.

Hurricane Andres formed over the open waters on May 29, then intensified to Category 4 intensity as the calendar turned to June.

That was followed immediately by another Category 4 hurricane, Blanca , which first became a tropical depression on May 31.

Blanca went on to become the earliest landfalling tropical storm on record in Baja California, moving ashore on June 8.

(MORE: Here's How Eastern Pacific Storms Can Eventually Impact the U.S. ) </s> Nibiru enthusiasts on the internet have long claimed that Nibiru has a 3,600 year-long orbit, during which it circles the Sun, Jupiter, Neptune, Uranus, Saturn and Earth. Theorists now speculate that the colossal planet – 10 times the size of Earth – will pass Earth on September 23. Several amateur astronomers anticipating Nibiru's approach have supposedly already photographed the celestial body travelling through space. Pictures of a mysterious red blob in the sky have been touted online as the first images of Planet X before it reaches Earth.

The photographs were posted on the arcticstardesign.com discussion forum by a user named Dew, with the caption 'Nibiru Incoming! Infrared Monster Approaching (IRMA)!!!' Dew wrote under his post: "It was aiming at Virgo’s lower half at 2:43pm – 2:46pm during the total solar eclipse using Canon EOS Rebel T3 with Hoya Infrared (pass-through) filter." A second set of images was supposedly taken on September 5, to further prove Nibiru's approach. Dew said: "Images above taken from Bradenton, Florida aiming at Virgo’s lower half between 9:24pm – 9:27pm using Canon EOS Rebel T3 with Hoya Infrared (pass-through) filter.

"We still need to pinpoint the exact location and best exposure shutter speed to use, and then input into Stellarium." If the pictures taken by the online user are real, then they could suggest that Planet X is heading towards Earth. But the outrageous claims have been dismissed by leading astronomers and scientists who have said that Nibiru is nowhere near Earth – because it does not exist.

Nasa, the world's leading scientific expert in astronomy has labelled Planet X an online hoax. Scores of conspiracy theorists are convinced that Nibiru is hurling towards Earth to marks the start of the apocalypse. The popular online theory purports that Nibiru will appear over Earth to trigger earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis with its powerful gravitational waves. The Planet X conspiracy has been circling the internet since the mid 1990s, but no concrete proof of Nibiru's existence has since emerged. </s> (CNN) — The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be “near- or above-normal” — though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms — including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes with Category 3 strength or higher — are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted.

Last year’s season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

“The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts,” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year’s storms might strike.

Harvey, Irma and Maria last year took aim, respectively, at the Houston area, Florida and Puerto Rico. They put a dramatic end to a 12-year period with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States and ranked among the top five costliest hurricanes in history.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now “ENSO-neutral conditions” — meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present — according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season,” Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, “it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season,” Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, “We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range.”

2018 season may get an early start

For now — a week ahead of the 2018 season’s official start — the hurricane center is already monitoring the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 90% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily.

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average.

Colorado State University, among the most well-regarded forecasting institutions, has predicted 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. It will update its forecast, issued last month, on May 31.

The Weather Company predicts slightly less activity than Colorado State. It forecasts a season that’s near average, with 12 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Meantime, North Carolina State University researchers expect 14 to 18 named storms, with seven to 11 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
The World Meteorological Organization and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predict a weak El Niño forming within three months.