The German election takes place this Sunday, with Chancellor Angela Merkel heavy favourite to defend her position against Martin Schulz for a fourth term in power.

Polls currently show that Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party - with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) - will be the largest party after the Bundestag election on 24 September, but they will fall short of a majority.

This is common in Germany, and so the resulting parliament is in part determined by how the smaller parties perform, and which coalition possibilities will be born.

How does the German voting system work?

Each person casts two votes in the Bundestag election, to allocate a total of 598 seats. Half of these are to elect a local MP by constituency, in a first-past-the-post fashion.

The remaining 299 votes are elected via party lists, allocated near-proportionately to the party vote share in each of Germany’s 16 federal states.

To be included in this seat allocation process, a party must achieve five per cent of the national vote.

This second round of seat allocation also means that the total number of MPs can be higher, with politicians elected in "overhang seats" in order to balance the state- and constituency-level votes. The most recent parliament had 32 overhang seats, taking the total up to 631 MPs.

This allows voters to represent their interests locally through their chosen representative, as well as nationally in the party they feel will be strongest in the Bundestag.

In the end, the seat share for each party ends up very similar to their vote share - unlike the system used in the UK's parliamentary elections.

So who will win the German election and when will we know the results?

Merkel's CDU is looking most likely to win the most seats in the Bundestag - for the fourth election in a row.

The SPD, led by former President of the European Parliament Martin Schulz, is in second place in the polls - securing around a quarter of the vote.

The AfD - the far-right Alternative for Germany party - had enjoyed a slight rise in the polls in 2016 but have since collapsed into in-fighting and unpopularity.

In reality, the CDU will have to seek a coalition agreement with the SPD or one of the other minor parties to form a government.

We should know who has won the election by 6pm BST this Sunday, when voting ends and the exit poll is released, although it won't be several more weeks until a coalition government is officially agreed.

The return of the far-right

A late surge in support has propelled the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party into third place in the opinion polls with just days to go before the ballot.

Last time around the party, fighting in it's first federal election, failed to win a constituency outright and fell just short of the five per cent required in order to secure MPs via the secondary proportional representation stage of the election.

The rise of the AfD

This time however they seem guaranteed to win representation in the Bundestag with the latest polling average putting them at slightly over 10 per cent. YouGov's Multilevel Regression with Poststratification model puts them on 12 per cent.

Were the AfD to secure a third place finish they could find themselves becoming the main opposition party in Germany if Merkel's CDU/CSU party decide to extend their Grand Coalition with the SPD.

The centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) has been in coalition with centre-right CDU in this current government, as well as in Merkel's first term. These two parties are Germany’s biggest, leading to a union dubbed the "Grand Coalition".

The polls are currently suggesting that Germans are content with their current government, which means a Grand Coalition could happen for a third time in just four elections.

Another option is a Black-Yellow coalition, consisting of Merkel's CDU party propped up by the smaller Free Democratic Party (FDP). This would take Merkel over the target needed for a majority, and was the option the party opted for in 2009-2013.

The only situation that poses a risk to Merkel’s leadership is a left-wing "Red-Red-Green" coalition, led by the SPD's Martin Schulz. For this, he would have to gather enough seats together alongside the Linke (Left) and Grüne (Greens) parties.

What do the parties stand for? The main parties standing in the election are as follows:
• Christian Democrats (CDU): The leading party in Germany, headed by Angela Merkel. The centre-right group - made up of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) - they have employment, tax cuts and ongoing public investment at the forefront of their manifesto.
• Social Democrats (SPD): Led by Martin Schulz, the centre-left are vying to make another Grand Coalition to remain in government. The party polled well following the election of their new leader, but then suffered once again in regional polls. The SPD is a traditionally working class party, pledging investment in education and infrastructure, funded by higher taxes for the rich.
• Left (Linke): Led by Sahra Wagenknecht and loosely descended from the East German communists. This small party, often used as a protest vote, is campaigning for a rise in national minimum wage, a rejection of military missions abroad and the dissolution of NATO.
• Green (Grüne): Led by co-chairs Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Cem Özdemir, this party could be the coalition kingmakers. They rely on educated, urban citizens, focusing on the environment, taxes and social policies.
• Free Democratic Party (FDP): Led by Christian Lindner, the party was Merkel's junior coalition party in her second term. It failed to reach five per cent of the vote to allow another coalition in 2013. The party campaigns for tax cuts and to remain in financial markets - particularly within the EU.
• Alternative for Germany (AfD): A right-wing populist party lead by Alice Weidel and Alexander Gauland. The party's hardline anti-EU, anti-immigration views have attracted voters from almost all of the other parties, especially among lower income households. What are the betting odds for the German Bundestag election? Political pollsters have taken a beating recently after failing to predict a British Hung Parliament in 2017, a Leave vote last summer and a Donald Trump victory in November. For those who have lost faith in polling, there is another way of predicting electoral outcomes: ask people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is. Many now believe that political betting markets can better predict elections, relying on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort and weigh all the probabilities. Coral's latest odds for the election have Mrs Merkel as most likely to continue as Chancellor after the election. The latest odds for the party to emerge with the most seats are: Our poll tracker takes in national polls from a range of German pollsters: INSA, Infratest Dimap, Emnid, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Allensbach and IPSOS. Their individual polls, while of different sample sizes, use nationally representative samples. Our seat share projection is based on the average of the last eight polls, excluding any parties that are polling at under five per cent, as the German proportional top-up system does. </s> The first forecasts show that German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party is winning the election in the local parliament in Germany's North Rhine-Westphalia. </s> BERLIN (Reuters) – Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives beat their rivals on Sunday to win her a fourth term in an election that will also bring a far-right party into Germany’s parliament for the first time in more than half a century, exit polls showed. </s> German Chancellor and CDU Party leader Angela Merkel casts her vote at a polling station on Sunday in Berlin during general elections (AFP photo)

BERLIN — Germans voted on Sunday in a general election expected to hand Chancellor Angela Merkel a fourth term while the hard-right nationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party was expected to make history by winning its first seats in parliament.

Europe’s most powerful woman appears all but assured of winning another term, matching the 16-year reign of her mentor Helmut Kohl.

Surveys suggest her conservative CDU/CSU alliance has a double-digit lead over its nearest rivals, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Martin Schulz.

Polling stations in Europe’s top economy will close at 1600 GMT, with exit polls due out immediately afterwards.

With four other parties predicted to clear the 5-per cent threshold to enter the Bundestag, the highest number since the 1950s, it could take months of coalition wrangling before the next government takes shape.

But mainstream parties have already ruled out talking to the anti-Islam, anti-immigration AfD, which is polling at 11 to 13 per cent and could emerge as Germany’s third-strongest party.

Alarmed by the prospect of what Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel branded “real Nazis” entering the Bundestag for the first time since World War II, politicians used their final days of campaigning to urge voters to reject the AfD.

“This Alternative for Germany is no alternative. They are a shame for our nation,” former European Parliament chief Schulz told a rally on Friday.

The latest surveys put support for Merkel’s conservative block at 34-36 per cent, with the SPD trailing at 21-22 per cent — which would translate into a historic low for the party.

Despite bracing for a drubbing, Schulz was all smiles as he and his wife cast their ballot in his western hometown of Wuerselen.

Preliminary figures indicated that turnout was up compared to the 2013 election in major cities including Berlin, Munich and Hamburg.

Merkel, 63, whose campaign events were regularly disrupted by jeering AfD supporters, said at her final stump speech in the southern city of Munich that “the future of Germany will definitely not be built with whistles and hollers”.

Observers say a strong showing by the AfD, which has capitalised on anger over the influx of a million migrants and refugees since 2015, would hit Germany like a bombshell.

“If the AfD becomes the leading opposition party, they will challenge key themes,” said Thorsten Benner, director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. “It will very much change the tone of debate in parliament.”

Aside from the populist noise, the past two months of campaigning have been widely criticised as lacklustre, with few hot-button issues dividing the main contenders.

Commentators say Merkel’s reassuring message of stability and prosperity has resonated in greying Germany, where more than half of the 61 million voters are aged 52 or older.

Schulz, on the other hand, has struggled to gain traction with his calls for a more socially just Germany at a time when the economy is humming and employment is at a record low.

The SPD has also found it hard to shine after four years as the junior partner in Merkel’s left-right “grand coalition”, marked by broad agreement on major topics, from foreign policy to migration.

In the final stretch, the more outspoken Schulz told voters to reject Merkel’s “sleeping-pill politics” and vote against “another four years of stagnation and lethargy”.

Germany’s best-selling daily Bild at the weekend said 61-year-old Schulz found his voice as he neared the finish line, and praised him for “fighting until the end”.

“Germany doesn’t just need a chancellor. It also needs an opposition leader. Schulz has started to sound like one,” the newspaper wrote.

The CDU and the SPD have signalled they are not keen to continue their loveless marriage, and many rank-and-file SPD members believe the traditional working-class party would benefit from a stint in opposition to rekindle its fighting spirit.

This would leave the presumed winner Merkel in need of new coalition partners — possibly the liberal and pro-business Free Democrats, who are hoping for a comeback after crashing out of parliament four years ago.

Another potential partner would be the ecologist and left-leaning Greens Party, which, however, starkly differs with the FDP on issues from climate change to migration policy.

Pundits have pointed out that a significant number of voters remained undecided until the last minute, suggesting the final outcome could throw up some surprises depending on turnout.

In the western city of Frankfurt, 66-year-old Harald said he was still unsure who to vote for as he headed home from his night shift as a security guard in the leafy Westend suburb.

“I will make up my mind once I’m in the polling booth. You can forget about the AfD,” he told AFP. </s> BERLIN (AP) — Germany’s parliament elects Angela Merkel for her fourth term as chancellor. </s> German Chancellor, Angela Merkel’s has won the mandate to form Germany’s central government for a fourth consecutive term in office.

The polls showed that for the first time in more than 50 years, a far-right party will be represented in the German parliament.

Merkel’s conservative bloc – her Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU) – won 32.5 percent of the vote, making them by far the largest parliamentary group, according to an exit poll for the broadcaster ARD.

However, the CSU’s vote was down by about 9.5 per cent compared with 41.5 percent in the 2013 election.

Their closest rivals, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), slumped to 20.0 percent – a new post-war low.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) stunned the establishment by finishing third and entering parliament for the first time with 13.5 percent.

Merkel, Europe’s longest-serving leader, joins the late Helmut Kohl, her mentor who reunified Germany, and Konrad Adenauer, who led Germany’s rebirth after World War Two, as the only post-war chancellors to win four national elections.

She must now form a coalition government – an arduous process that could take months as all potential partners are unsure whether they really want to share power with her. </s> • Angela Merkel is on track to secure a minority victory over her rivals
• The far-right, anti-immigrant AfD is posed to form the opposition
• Angela Merkel and Martin Schulz will likely form a ‘grand coalition’ The latest election polls from Germany show that Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are in the strong lead ahead of Martin Schulz's Social Democrats (SPD). The polls also suggest that incumbent Chancellor will be forced to strike a coalition deal with the SPD, or a potential three-way alliance between the CDU/CSU, Greens and liberal Free Democrats (FDP). One party to look out for, is the controversial AdF which has grown in support in the run up to the election. Here are all the latest live updates, polls and campaign news as Germany elects its next government in the federal election. (All times BST)

Ron Nehring, a former US National Spokesman who is currently at the CDU headquarters in Germany, thinks that the German left will be extremely disappointed with the election results. He said in a tweet: “I get the sense the left in Germany is heading to a crushing defeat, extremely poor showing in today's election. First results in 20 mins.” 4.40pm: A 5 per cent AfD victory could be enough of a success for right-wing party Mathieu von Rohr, deputy head of the Der Spiegel Foreign desk, thinks that entering the Bundestag will be enough of a victory to cause and upset in Germany. He tweeted: “What should be seen as a success for AfD? Need 5% to enter Bundestag. Polls predict 10%+ which would be big. 15%+ would be an upset.”

4.30pm: Exit polls out in just 30 minutes The first round of exit polls are expected to be released in just 30 minutes. The final ballot count will not be out until 2am, but the exit polls are known to be extremely reliable in the German elections. By 5.30pm, a mix of exit polls and preliminary ballot counts should give a clearer picture of the results. FIND OUT HOW TO WATCH THE ELECTION RESULTS LIVE ONLINE 4.20pm: AfD could be in a position of power if it enters the Bundestag Melinda Crane, the chief political correspondent at DW, explained how the AfD ganging parliamentary seats would put it in a position of power. “One of the things we’re going to be watching is not only the percentage of seats, but also will the AfD then come in as a strong third party, because that means potentially if the two main parties – the SPD, the Social Democrats and the CDU and Angela Merkel’s Conservatives – were once again o govern in a grand coalition, the AfD would become the leader of the opposition. “That carries a number of perquisites, including for example the right for open debate in the Bundestag when it’s about the budget. “That is a powerful position and it will be a powerful platform for discourse that may trouble many German citizens. “As you know, we’ve seen the threshold on what is acceptable political discourse here in Germany.”

The are the latest opinion polls collected by Infratest dime: 4pm: Election turn out slips with one hour to go A Federal Returning Officer confirmed today that by 1pm, only 41.4 per cent of the electorate cast their election ballot. "It has perhaps never been as clear that the elections are about the future of democracy and Europe," the Officer wrote in newspaper Bild am Sonntag. "If you don't vote, others decide." More than 60 million Germans are eligible to vote in the federal elections. The largest group of voters is older and born in Germany to German parents, predominantly in the range of 70 and older – 20.7 per cent of the electorate according to theFederal Office of Statistics. About 10.4 per cent of the voters are estimated to have a “migrant background” and 51.5 per cent of German voters are women.

Christian Odendahl tweeted: “As elsewhere, I think this time around the relatively high turnout will benefit the populists in Germany.” The German Chancellor cast her ballot at a polling station in a school in Berlin's Mitte district. in a bod to secure her fourth term in office. Markus Putzel, an election volunteer at the Berlin polling station told CNN that the turnout is “quite high” there. It's a bit like the German Bundesliga," he said. "You know that Bayern Munich will always be the champion, but it is exciting to see who will come second." 3.30pm: Angela Merkel still in the lead with two hours to go A number of polls show that Mrs Merkel’s CDU/CSU is still in the lead for victory. A Pollytix election aggregator predicts that the Conservative’s will secure 36.1 per cent of the vote. based on the average of 21 different pollsters. The SPD are in second place with 22.2 per cent of the vote, and the AfD are looking to score 10.6 per cent of the vote.

2pm: Election turnout comparable to 2013 as Germans head to the polls The election turnout this year is at least two per cent higher than 2013, according to Christian Odendahl, chief economist at the Centre for European Reform. Mr Odendahl tweeted: “Turnout seems to be higher than 2013 in #BTW2017. Might benefit #AfD (former non-voters) rather than major parties (anti-AfD vote). “Turnout in Munich so far: 57% vs. 44% in 2013. “Lowest turnout in a German federal election was in 2009: 70.8%. Highest in 1972: 91.1%. “City of Koeln reports 2 percentage points higher turnout than in 2013, a 1 pm. CLICK HERE TO READ OUR PREVIOUS GERMAN ELECTION LIVE UPDATES </s> Angela Merkel won a fourth term as chancellor in Sunday’s election, but her victory was overhsadowed by the entry of the far-right party, Alternative for Germany, into Parliament for the first time in more than 60 years. </s> BERLIN: German Chancellor Angela Merkel, bruised by half a year of post-election coalition haggling, was on Wednesday (Mar 14) narrowly confirmed by parliament to her fourth and likely final term at the helm of Europe's biggest economy.

Lawmakers in Berlin's glass-domed Reichstag voted 364-315 with nine abstentions for Merkel, who was then formally appointed by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier before taking the oath of office.

The outcome of the secret ballot suggested 35 lawmakers of her new right-left coalition bloc voted against Merkel, giving her a thin nine-vote margin that opposition parties were quick to label a "rocky start" for a spent and joyless governing alliance.

Merkel, wearing a necklace in the national colours black-red-gold, nevertheless beamed with joy and relief as applause filled the Bundestag chamber, where her scientist husband Joachim Sauer and her 89-year-old mother Herlind Kasner were among the well-wishers.

For the veteran leader, the ceremony marked the end of a painful stretch of post-election paralysis, the deepest crisis of her 12-year career.

A right-wing populist rise in September elections weakened all mainstream parties and deprived Merkel of a majority, forcing her into another unhappy alliance with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).

The grand coalition, mockingly dubbed a "GroKo" in German, didn't start as a "love marriage", her designated vice chancellor and finance minister, the SPD's Olaf Scholz, drily observed this week.

All coalition partners have nonetheless sought to allay fears that their marriage of convenience could break up mid-term, insisting they plan to jointly govern until 2021.

From 1600 GMT, Merkel sits down with her new cabinet, in which the SPD has wrested both the trophy posts of finance and foreign affairs to the dismay of a growing band of critics within her Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

To quieten the dissent, Merkel has named a sometimes outspoken critic, Jens Spahn, 37, as her new health minister and recently tapped a potential successor, new CDU general secretary Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

"The chancellor was, from time to time, written off in the past six months," Marianne Kneuer of Hildesheim University told Phoenix TV.

"Many in the party started thinking about the future after Angela Merkel ... but at the same time Merkel has strengthened her position again."

On Friday Merkel will head to Paris to discuss EU reform plans with French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of a Mar 22-23 summit, after a lengthy stretch in which Berlin was hamstrung on the European and world stage.

Macron warned in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung daily that, without Germany on board, "part of my project would be doomed to failure".

"We are completely dependent on each other. I do not believe for one second that a European project without or against Germany could succeed."

Merkel's incoming coalition has broadly welcomed Macron's bold reform plans, meant to reinvigorate the bloc and counter extremists and populists who have made major gains in Western democracies.

She has argued that the EU must increasingly look after its own interests in the era of US President Donald Trump, who has questioned long-standing transatlantic defence ties and threatened a trade war.

Berlin advocates closer EU cooperation on defence, immigration and plans for a European Monetary Fund. But it is lukewarm on the idea of a joint eurozone finance minister and rejects any pooling of debt.

The rise of populist fringe parties is also the central domestic threat for Merkel's new coalition, which faces the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) as the biggest opposition party.

The AfD scored almost 13 per cent in the election, capitalising on public fears over a mass influx of more than one million refugees and migrants since 2015 and angrily demanding that "Merkel must go".

The shock rise of the AfD has come at the expense of the CDU, its Bavarian CSU allies and especially the SPD, all of which suffered their worst results in decades in September.

While Merkel's last GroKo had a crushing 80 per cent parliamentary majority, the margin has shrunk to 56 per cent.

To answer the new right-wing threat, designated interior minister Horst Seehofer has pledged a "zero tolerance" law-and-order drive and faster deportations of failed asylum-seekers.

His new interior super-ministry also covers "Heimat" or homeland affairs, a term much derided for evoking Alpine vistas, beer and bratwurst but intended to recapture claims to patriotism from the AfD.

Scholz has meanwhile promised to tackle another fear exploited by populists, of vanishing jobs in the age of globalisation and rapid technological change.

"When we look at the Trump election, Brexit and the success of right-wing populist parties in many European countries," Scholz said, "we see there is a clear need to find new answers to the challenges of the 21st century."
Voters in Germany go to the polls to elect members of the Bundestag. Chancellor Angela Merkel of the Christian Democratic Union is widely expected to win a fourth term in office.