00:38 Dorian Leaves Colder Waters in its Wake Dorian leaves behind colder waters, meteorologist Danielle Banks explains.

At a Glance The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has begun a week early.

Tropical Depression One-E formed Thursday afternoon in the open waters of the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

This system will pose no threat to land and is not expected to become a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression One-E formed on Thursday afternoon well off the west coast of Mexico, kicking off the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which doesn't officially begin until May 15.

The tropical depression is currently centered more than 1,400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California.​​​​​​

Additional strengthening is not expected as One-E is approaching an area of stronger wind shear to its west.

Tropical Depression One-E will, therefore, be short-lived, and given it's far from land and has weak steering winds, it will be no threat to land as it drifts toward the west-northwest through Friday night.

Though not expected, if the depression were to become a tropical storm, it would earn the first name of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane season: Aletta.

(MORE: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook )

Another Early Start?

This is a case of déjà vu.

One year ago Wednesday, Tropical Storm Adrian became the earliest tropical cyclone on record to form in the Eastern Pacific Basin.

Adrian became a tropical depression, then strengthened to a tropical storm on May 9, 2017, south of the Pacific coasts of Mexico and Guatemala before wind shear tore it apart the following day.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through Nov. 30, beginning roughly two weeks earlier than the Atlantic hurricane season. According to the National Hurricane Center, an average Eastern Pacific season has its first named storm by the second week of June .

Since 2000, however, 19 named storms have formed in May in the Eastern Pacific Basin. Nine of those storms eventually became hurricanes and six became major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger ).

(MORE: When the Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts Early )

<img class="styles__noscript__2rw2y" src="https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/epac-may-storms-2000-2016.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0" srcset="https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/epac-may-storms-2000-2016.jpg?v=at&w=485&h=273&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 400w, https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/w/epac-may-storms-2000-2016.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0 800w" > Tracks of all Eastern Pacific named storms to form in May from 2000 to 2016. (NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks) (NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)

And, unlike the current system, some of these storms had land impact.

Five of those May storms made landfall either in southeastern Mexico's Gulf of Tehuantepec or in Central America. One of these, Barbara in 2013, made landfall as a hurricane along the Gulf of Tehuantepec coast.

The 2015 Eastern Pacific hurricane season got off to a record start , including a frenetic May, fueled by an intensifying El Niño.

Hurricane Andres formed over the open waters on May 29, then intensified to Category 4 intensity as the calendar turned to June.

That was followed immediately by another Category 4 hurricane, Blanca , which first became a tropical depression on May 31.

Blanca went on to become the earliest landfalling tropical storm on record in Baja California, moving ashore on June 8.

(MORE: Here's How Eastern Pacific Storms Can Eventually Impact the U.S. ) </s> Tropical Depression One-E is churning away around 2,280 km (1,420 miles) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The monstrous weather front is pushing sustained winds of about 55km/h (33mph) according to the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) office in Miami, Florida. The NHC warned: “At 2am PDT (9am UTC), the centre of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 128.6 West. “The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph.

“A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.” Strong upper winds are expected to cause some weakening over the next 48 hours with hopes the tropical depression will devolve into a remnant low by tonight or early on Saturday. The NHC added: “Despite the depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data confirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30kt. “Since the shear is forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more difficult for the depression to sustain organised deep convection near its centre, and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours.

“The remnant low should then dissipate in about 3 days.” The tropical depression’s presence does not pose any threat to land at the moment, but meteorologists are intently tracking its movement for the first telltale signs of hurricane season. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is scheduled to officially begin on May 15 and these might be the first rumblings of what is about to come. Hurricane season in the Central Pacific will soon follow in June 2018.

Meanwhile, out in the Atlantic, hurricane season typically kicks off in the summer between June and November, but hurricanes have been known to wreak havoc as early as May.

Last year, Tropical Storm Adrian was the earliest tropical cyclone to develop in the Eastern Pacific Ocean on May 10, reaching within 600km of Mexico. Dominic Davis, a meteorologist for The Weather Channel, warned on Thursday: “This is really a go-nowhere storm which is good news, so we don’t have to worry about it affecting ay land. “So it will start to lose steam by Saturday evening.

“Good reminder though, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season does kick off May 15. “That’s the official start of hurricane season but we know it can happen any time before that like we’re seeing now, so here’s a good time to start brushing up on your hurricane awareness.” Last year’s hurricane season was a particularly devastating time for the US and the Caribbean with a grand total of 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes – the fifth most active weather season since 1851. Most notably Hurricane Harvey swept through Texas, Hurricane Irma blasted Florida and Hurricane Maria caused unimaginable damaged across the Caribbean. </s> (CNN) — The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be “near- or above-normal” — though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms — including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes with Category 3 strength or higher — are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted.

Last year’s season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

“The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts,” US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year’s storms might strike.

Harvey, Irma and Maria last year took aim, respectively, at the Houston area, Florida and Puerto Rico. They put a dramatic end to a 12-year period with no major hurricane landfalls in the United States and ranked among the top five costliest hurricanes in history.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now “ENSO-neutral conditions” — meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present — according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

“The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season,” Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, “it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season,” Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, “We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range.”

2018 season may get an early start

For now — a week ahead of the 2018 season’s official start — the hurricane center is already monitoring the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 90% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily.

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average.

Colorado State University, among the most well-regarded forecasting institutions, has predicted 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. It will update its forecast, issued last month, on May 31.

The Weather Company predicts slightly less activity than Colorado State. It forecasts a season that’s near average, with 12 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Meantime, North Carolina State University researchers expect 14 to 18 named storms, with seven to 11 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. </s> (CNN) The 2018 hurricane season is shaping up to be "near- or above-normal" -- though not to the degree seen last year, when 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes struck US soil -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, said Thursday.

Ten to 16 named storms -- including five to nine hurricanes, and one to four major hurricaneswith Category 3 strength or higher -- are predicted this Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, the federal agency predicted

Last year's season ended with 10 hurricanes and six major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin annually averages 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin.

"The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts," US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

As usual, the latest forecast cannot offer the bit of information most critical to residents living in hurricane-prone areas, from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the Carolinas and, sometimes, as far north as Boston: precisely where this year's storms might strike.

The 2017 season was very active, in part, because of a weak La Niña that developed during the six-month hurricane season that ends December 1.

La Niña is a naturally occurring phenomenon characterized by cooler than normal water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region. While La Niña occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it has a widespread impact on the global climate. That includes decreased wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which creates favorable conditions for tropical development.

But La Niña has since disappeared, making way for what are now "ENSO-neutral conditions" -- meaning neither La Niña nor its opposite, El Niño, is present -- according to Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

"The models are suggesting that El Niño could possibly develop later in the season," Bell said Thursday.

El Niño features warmer water in the eastern Pacific equatorial region, creating greater wind shear in the Atlantic, and thus, fewer tropical storms.

If El Niño does develop by October, "it could possibly shut down or weaken the latter part of the season," Bell said.

But that is certainly no guarantee. And if El Niño fails to make an appearance, Bell warned, "We could certainly see the seasonal activity near the higher-end of the predicted range."

2018 season may get an early start

As Memorial Day approaches, forecasters predict an 80% chance of tropical or subtropical development by the end of the long weekend.

Regardless of whether the system gets named as it moves north through the central and eastern gulf, places in Florida and into the Southeast will see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms daily

Beyond the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, dubbed NOAA, most meteorologists agree that the 2018 season will be near or above average. </s> The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre said on Thursday it expects the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-normal to above-normal in number and intensity of storms. The NOAA forecast also said about half of the 10 to 16 named storms will be hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 mph (119 kph). An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms of which six become hurricanes, three of them major. Private forecaster Weatherbell Analytics earlier this month revised downward its forecast for named storms in 2018 from between 11 and 15 to nine to 13.

A system was brewing in the southern Gulf on Thursday that has a 70 per cent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, the US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said. It is expected to bring heavy rain to the southeast United States early next week and could become the first named storm of the year as Alberto. The news comes after the NHC said a storm depression off the coast of Mexico has a 70 per cent chance of forming by the weekend. The Miami branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook for the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The special notice warns a front of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico and threatens to push north towards Florida.

Forecasters fear the front has an 80 per cent chance of deteriorating into a subtropical or tropical depression this weekend. There is an additional 40 per cent chance this could happen over the next 48 hours. Tropical depressions form when areas of low pressure start churning away at speeds of up to 39mph. If the depression picks up speed and organised winds over 39mph, forecasters will upgrade it to a full-blown tropical cyclone. The NHC warned: “A broad, stationary surface low-pressure system centred over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.

"Although showers and thunderstorms, along with strong gusty winds, are confined primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, gradual development of this system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. "Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development through early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. "Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast into early next week. "In addition, the threat of rip currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend.” </s> This year could bring above-average hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean, with potential for up to nine tropical storms that will become hurricanes – and as many as four could be considered major.

The new predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are based on a non-existent El Nino, as the presence of the climate pattern is known to suppress these storms in the Atlantic.

Forecasters say the hurricane season, from June 1 through November 30, has a 45 percent chance of above-normal activity, and a 70 percent chance of seeing 11 to 17 named storms.

Without an El Nino event this year, forecasters say hurricane activity will likely be higher than normal. In the Atlantic, this means: In the eastern and central Pacific:
• 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity
• 70 percent chance of 5 to 8 tropical cyclones in central Pacific, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes

According to the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, there’s just a 35 percent chance that this hurricane season will be ‘near-normal,’ and far less likelihood (20%) that activity will be below-normal.

‘The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,’ said Gerry Bell, PhD, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

The scientists are predicting 11-17 named tropical storms, meaning winds will be blowing at 39 miles per hour or higher.

Of this batch, they expect 5-9 to become hurricanes, bringing 74 mph or higher winds.

And, 2-4 of these could become major hurricanes, at category 3, 4, or 5 – meaning winds of 111 mph or higher.

‘The season could be comparable to last year, which was the most active season since 2012, with 15 named storms,’ according to Bell.

‘We don’t forecast how many storms might make landfall, because this far in advance, we really can’t predict what atmospheric conditions will be in place to steer the individual storms.’

In April, a rare pre-season storm dubbed ‘Arlene’ formed over the eastern Atlantic.

And, the World Meteorological Organization has already lined up the names for this year’s tropical storms.

After Arlene, the list includes 20 additional names, from Bret to Whitney.

HOW STORMS GET THEIR NAMES Long before the adoption of a naming system by the World Meteorological Organization, hurricanes in the West Indies were named for the particular saint’s day on which they occurred. In 1953, the US began using only female names for storms. But, the practice ended in 1978, when men’s names were added to the list as well. The WMO uses a strict naming procedure created by an international committee, according to the NOAA. Hurricanes in the Atlantic are named based on a list that rotates every six years. But, if a storm is particularly catastrophic, that particular name is ‘retired,’ meaning it is removed from the list. The 2017 list, for example, will not appear again until 2023. The World Meteorological Organization has already lined up the names for this year’s tropical storms, as seen above. Arlene occurred in April, in a rare pre-season event

The NOAA researchers say the forecast will be updated in early August ahead of the season’s peak, for more accurate predictions.

They’ve also included an outlook for hurricanes in the eastern Pacific and central Pacific basins: an 80 percent chance of near- or above-normal activity is expected.

This could bring 14-20 named storms, with 6-11 expected to become hurricanes, and 3-7 with potential to become major.

The central Pacific has a 70 percent chance of seeing 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, including tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. </s> COLLEGE PARK, Md. — The federal government predicts a busy 2017 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, with 5 to 9 hurricanes expected to form.

Overall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts 11 to 17 named tropical storms will develop in the region, which includes the Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the agency announced Friday. The season officially begins next Thursday, June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.

Of the hurricanes, 2 to 4 could be major, with wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and rated as Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale of Hurricane Intensity. An average season typically spawns six hurricanes and peaks in August and September.

A tropical storm contains wind speeds of 39 mph or higher and becomes a hurricane when winds reach 74 mph.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.



 Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year.

Meet the hurricane hunters, whose harrowing flights are all in a day's work

 So far this year, one tropical storm has already formed in the Atlantic: Arlene, which spun harmlessly in the middle of the ocean in April. The next few named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin and Gert.

Last month, the meteorologists at Colorado State University estimated 11 tropical storms will form, with four becoming hurricanes. The late Colorado State University meteorologist William Gray was the first scientist to make seasonal hurricane forecasts back in the 1980s.

The Weather Channel predicts an average season, with a total of 12 named storms expected to form, of which six will become hurricanes. AccuWeather meteorologists forecast 10 named storms, five of which are projected to become hurricanes.

This is the 25th anniversary of Andrew, which tore into South Florida on Aug. 24, 1992.

Forecasters also released their prediction for the eastern Pacific basin, where 14 to 20 named storms are expected. An average eastern Pacific hurricane season produces 15 named storms.

One weak eastern Pacific tropical storm, Adrian, has already spun up earlier this month.

Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico.

The central Pacific outlook calls for 5 to 8 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes. These are the storms that can sometimes affect Hawaii. </s> It was the second Category 4 hurricane to form in four days in the eastern Pacific Ocean, exploding from a tropical storm to major hurricane in just 24 hours. Then, the storm named Bud fell apart just as fast.

Hurricane Bud is now Tropical Storm Bud. In a single day, from 11 a.m. Tuesday to 11 a.m. Wednesday, its peak winds dropped from 125 mph to 60 mph.

The National Hurricane Center attributed the “rapid” weakening to “significant upwelling of colder water beneath the cyclone.” This cool water robbed energy from the storm, and its towering thunderstorms could no longer sustain themselves.

The Hurricane Center described “a pronounced erosion of the deep convection” in the storm’s inner core. The upwelling of cold water resulted in the sea surface temperature cooling five degrees in the storm’s wake.

Bud is forecast to further weaken. Even so, it is still headed toward the southern part of Baja California, including Cabo San Lucas, where a tropical storm warning is in effect. The Hurricane Center said it could produce tropical-storm winds, several inches of rain, and dangerous surf for the region Thursday and Friday.

Then, the storm is forecast to disintegrate altogether, although some of its moisture will be drawn into the parched desert of the southwestern United States, which desperately needs it.

Bud had reached its peak intensity early Tuesday morning, with maximum winds of 130 mph, briefly making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Between Sunday and Monday morning, the storm had explosively intensified, its peak winds increasing from 65 to 120 mph — a 55 mph increase in 24 hours.

Bud became the second straight storm in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean to rapidly strengthen from a tropical storm to a major hurricane, rated at least Category 3.

The storm before it, named Aletta, also spun up and then down at breakneck speed. Its peak winds increased from 70 mph Thursday morning to 140 mph Friday morning. And then they decreased from 125 mph Friday evening to 60 mph by Saturday evening. Aletta dissipated Monday and never influenced any land area. </s> Hector becomes the fourth hurricane of the eastern Pacific's hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center said Hector's winds are now at 85 mph.

The eye of Hurricane Hector was located 1,135 miles west-southwest of Baja California, according to the latest advisory.

More: Experts revise hurricane prediction for this season

Hector is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph, with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles.

Elsewhere in the Pacific, two systems are being watched.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a tropical wave.

More: July active month for Atlantic basin, with formation of two hurricanes

Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves generally west across the tropical eastern Pacific.

By early next week, proximity to another low pressure system could limit further development of this disturbance.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwest off the coast of Mexico.

Nothing is forecast to form in the Atlantic over the next two days.

July was an active month for the Atlantic basin, with two hurricanes. Typically, one named storm forms in the basin in July, with a hurricane forming once every other year.

More: Have no fear, African dust helping to prevent hurricanes from forming

In July, two hurricanes formed during the month. Hurricane Beryl July 5-15 with maximum winds of 80 mph and Hurricane Chris July 6-12, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph.

The Hurricane Center said activity in the Atlantic basin so far in 2018 is above normal.

August is one of the most active months in the Atlantic basin due to warmer seas, lower wind shear, less Saharan dry air and stronger waves, according to the National Weather Service out of Key West.

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 101. Light southeast wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

More: Tired of thunderstorms? Saharan dust from Africa can help with that, too

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 10 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
A tropical depression forms in the Pacific ocean. It is not supposed to threaten land, and is also the first storm of the season.