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Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2026? | 0.69 | Manifold |
Will there be nuclear powered supersonic airplanes by 2100? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Room-temp superconductor reported in major journal by end of 2024? (Kalshi) | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will there be a new US State by 2055? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Polymarket fail by the end of 2024? | 0.16 | Manifold |
Will Generative AI trained on crawled art be illegal in 2027 because of copyright? | 0.22 | Manifold |
Will any EU country have an agreement with external countries to study asylum seeker applications abroad by end of 2026? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Tricia Cotham run for the Republican nomination in any North Carolina congressional district in 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor (LK-99, or other) be discovered before 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the next Crypto bull run hit by 2025 | 0.62 | Manifold |
Will SuperMega have over 1M subscribers by 2024? | 0.54 | Manifold |
What will the Human Development Index (HDI) of Niger be in 2030, assuming the (current) coup fails? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will the U.S. government admit to having engaged in either a UFO coverup or a disinformation campaign before 2024? | 0.04 | Manifold |
What will the Human Development Index (HDI) of Niger be in 2030, assuming the (current) coup succeeds? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will the next Witcher book be published by the end of 2024? | 0.23 | Manifold |
Inflation: What is the ratio of a 2033 US dollar to a 2023 US dollar? (10x) | 0.6 | Manifold |
What will be the range (%) of non-male gender representation for accounts in Manifold by 2024? | 0.24 | Manifold |
Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach a new all time high before the next halving in late April 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Does LK-99 exhibit one-dimensional (1D) superconductivity? (June 2024 resolution by scientific consensus) | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040? | 0.04 | Manifold |
Will Ai pervade every aspect of the real world before 2030, like electricity? | 0.37 | Manifold |
Will effective personality simulation be available by 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will fractal compression be used in production by 2040? | 0.38 | Manifold |
Tesla licenses FSD tech to another automaker in 2024 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will Erdogan’s party win Istanbul back in 2024 local elections? | 0.42 | Manifold |
Will a candidate in the 2024 US presidential election attempt to overturn or invalidate its result? | 0.61 | Manifold |
Will there be at least 1 new iPhone without a notch by the end of 2024? | 0.71 | Manifold |
Will Grand Theft Auto 6 release before 2026? | 0.78 | Manifold |
Will twitter.com start redirecting to x.com before 2024? | 0.74 | Manifold |
Will there be a sequel to Deus Ex Mankind Divided before 2030? | 0.84 | Manifold |
Will manifold resolve all stocks as N/A before 2030? | 0.35 | Manifold |
Will a cancer therapy approved by the FDA before 2027 successfully cure >1 cancer type? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will the nonce of Bitcoin block #801700 be even? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will we get AGI before 2026? | 0.09 | Manifold |
Will Lewis Hamilton drive for the Mercedes F1 Team in 2025? | 0.72 | Manifold |
Will NASA confirm alien co-op by 2025? | 0.06 | Manifold |
Will the FAO Global Food Index for 2024 be higher than that of 2023? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Richard Dawkins speak with Jordan peterson before august 2024? | 0.4 | Manifold |
Will a typhoon make landfall in Taiwan before the end of 2024? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Apple Airpods have EEG based BCI _control_ features by 2026? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Construction on Auckland's second Waitemata harbour crossing will commence construction by the end of 2029 | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will XQC reach Top 500 on tank in Overwatch 2 by 2024? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will any land currently held by the US breakaway before 2040. | 0.13 | Manifold |
Conditional on the Atlas Fellowship running in 2024, will Klein be a 2024 Atlas Fellow | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will we find a way to live forever by 2046? | 0.2 | Manifold |
Will a Monopoly movie release by end of August 2026? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will Lex Fridman interview Sukbae Lee or Ji-Hoon Kim by August of 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will Elon Musk tweet “rationalussy” by end of 2024? | 0.13 | Manifold |
Will Monkey get perfect score on Putnam exam by 2060? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will PTON get acquired by 12/31/2024? | 0.45 | Manifold |
Will Questions of the form "Will this question go below X% before R" be banned by manifold markets before 2025? | 0.1 | Manifold |
Will Path of Exile 2 be playable on the scheduled release date (June 7, 2024) | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will the BBC licence fee be axed by the end of 2028? | 0.44 | Manifold |
Will there be peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia by the beginning of 2024? | 0.19 | Manifold |
Will OpenAI be valued above $1 trillion before 2030? | 0.32 | Manifold |
Will Twitter either be sold or declare bankruptcy by July 2024? | 0.14 | Manifold |
Will someone deadlift 505kg or more by the end of 2024? | 0.82 | Manifold |
Will the Solar Electric Car Lightyear 2 be shipped before the end of 2026? | 0.42 | Manifold |
What will be the average human life expectancy by 2100 | 0.11 | Manifold |
Will we see a PS5 Pro in 2024? | 0.46 | Manifold |
Will Putin serve the entirety of his current term to 2024 as president? | 0.88 | Manifold |
Will the world population in 2030 be higher than 8.6 billion people? | 0.63 | Manifold |
Will Nintendo release a Switch successor in the 2024 calendar year? | 0.56 | Manifold |
Will Pridi's Letter Reveal in 2024 is Going To Solve the Murder Case of Rama VIII of Thailand? | 0.45 | Manifold |
[COVID origins] Will "Proximal Origin" be retracted before 2025? | 0.36 | Manifold |
Will Thailand Ever Achieve A Democracy Like S.Korea Did Within 2030? | 0.27 | Manifold |
Will there be an astronomical body named Rationalussy by the end of 2024? | 0.15 | Manifold |
On 2024-01-31, if there is a consensus on LK-99’s critical temperature, is it between 100K and 200K? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 2500 DAU (7d average) sometime in August 2023? | 0.7 | Manifold |
Will a large insurance company cover weight loss drugs before 2027? | 0.81 | Manifold |
Will Manifold reach 3000 daily active users (7d average) by September 1st? | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Medicare or Medicaid cover weight loss drugs by 2029? | 0.74 | Manifold |
What will be the percentage of inactive W20-S23 YCombinator startups at the end of 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
I can buy a dog poop picking up robot on Amazon before 2028 | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will Adaptimmune's Afami-cel T-cell therapy be approved by the FDA before the end of 2024? | 0.66 | Manifold |
Will a US presidential candidate mention Effective Accelerationism before the 2024 elections? | 0.12 | Manifold |
Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030? | 0.52 | Manifold |
Will Sam Altman’s net worth exceed that of Elon Musk before 2040? | 0.17 | Manifold |
Will a living Miss Waldron's red colobus monkey be discovered by August 3, 2033? | 0.59 | Manifold |
Will any municipality in Northern Italy move to an autonomous region by 2030? | 0.7 | Manifold |
By June 1, 2024, will the McElroys release a Monster Factory video covering Starfield? | 0.67 | Manifold |
What will be the price of 1kg of room-temperature and pressure superconductor in 2033? | 0.73 | Manifold |
Will Moodys downgrade the US government's credit rating by the end of Q1 2024? | 0.26 | Manifold |
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) | 0.6 | Manifold |
Will a Florida school district say they plan to incorporate PragerU Kids content before November 6, 2024? | 0.49 | Manifold |
Will 'bioweapon' reach a new peak in Google Trends before the end of 2025? | 0.43 | Manifold |
Will Coq 9 be released before 2025-01-01? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Manifold offer the option to convert points to cash in at least one US state by 2025? | 0.18 | Manifold |
Will one major American car company or brand completely shut down by 2025? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Firefox have 10% or more desktop browser market share at any point before 2025? | 0.15 | Manifold |
Will the FAA certify an eVTOL aircraft before 2024? | 0.58 | Manifold |
Will Morocco bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Morocco bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Morocco bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.41 | Manifold |
Will Angola bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2030? | 0.39 | Manifold |
Will Angola bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2035? | 0.53 | Manifold |
Will Angola bring a fifth generation fighter into service by the end of 2040? | 0.5 | Manifold |
Will Nigeria make a major new purchase of fighter jets before 2030? | 0.48 | Manifold |
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria) | 0.26 | Manifold |