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事實上,用國內生產總值衡量的經濟增長被廣泛認為是終極發展目標。
Indeed, as measured by gross domestic product, economic growth is widely viewed as the ultimate development objective.
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But it is time to rethink this approach.
應該反思一下這一觀點。
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事實上,一國人均GDP與其人民幸福之間的聯絡正在日漸減弱,因為快速增長的產出放大了健康挑戰、侵蝕了環境條件。
In fact, there is a rising disconnect between countries’ per capita GDP and their citizens’ wellbeing, as rapid output growth exacerbates health challenges and erodes environmental conditions.
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因此,人們日益向看重貨幣財富那樣看重非物質財富。
Given this, people increasingly value non-material wealth just as highly as monetary wealth, if not more.
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But persuading policymakers and politicians of GDP’s limitations is no easy feat.
但說服決策者和政客接受GDP的侷限決非易事。
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畢竟,捍衛一個易於理解並且被長期接受的框架比提出一套新的世界觀簡單得多。
After all, it is far simpler to defend a well-understood, long-accepted framework than it is to champion a new worldview.
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平心而論,GDP提供了關於一國生產、支出和收入流以及跨境商品流的極有價值的資訊。
To be sure, GDP provides valuable information about a country’s production, expenditure, and income streams, as well as the flow of goods across borders.
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Moreover, it has provided crucial guidance to countries, helping them to track economic gains that have improved citizens’ quality of life considerably – in many cases lifting them out of destitution.
此外,GDP還為各國提供關鍵指導,有助於它們追蹤極大改善公民生活質量——在許多情形裡,還幫助他們擺脫了貧困——的經濟成果。
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但GDP沒有考慮一國資本存量的變化,導致決策者難以平衡經濟、社會和環境問題。
But GDP fails to account for changes in a country’s stock of assets, making it difficult for policymakers to balance economic, social, and environmental concerns.
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沒有更好的幸福指標——包括健康、教育和自然環境狀態等——決策者就無法獲得所需的資訊確保經濟以及組成經濟的個體的長期健康。
Without better measures of wellbeing – including health, education, and the state of the natural environment – policymakers cannot gain the insights that they need to ensure the long-term health of the economy and the individuals who comprise it.
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這一緊迫任務便是“可持續發展”概念的基礎。 自20世紀80年代中期引入以來,這一概念逐漸獲得了接受。
This imperative underpins the concept of “sustainable development,” which has gradually gained acceptance since its introduction in the mid-1980’s.
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但是,儘管各國已經認識到需要更全面地理解發展,但大體上它們仍將GDP增長作為核心目標。
But, even as countries have recognized the need for a more comprehensive understanding of development, they have largely retained GDP growth as their central objective.
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This has to change.
這一點必須改變。
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Even US-based Nobel laureate Simon Kuznets, the depression-era father of GDP, said in 1934 that, “the welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income.”
就連大蕭條時期的GDP之父、美國諾貝爾獎獲得者西蒙·庫茲涅茨(Simon Kuznets)也曾在1934年說過“一國的福利很難從國民收入指標中推斷。 ”
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The good news is that a robust, simple, and effective framework for measuring sustainability already exists.
好訊息是一個魯棒、簡單、有效的可持續性衡量框架已經存在了。
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由包括諾貝爾獎獲得者肯尼斯·阿羅(Kenneth Arrow)和劍橋大學的帕莎·達斯古帕塔(Partha Dasgupta)在內的著名經濟學家所開發的這一框架在一國的資產存量(包括人力和自然資本)背景下評估經濟的收入流。
Developed by a group of leading economists, including the Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow and Partha Dasgupta of the University of Cambridge, it assesses an economy’s income flows in the context of its stocks of assets, including human and natural capital.
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換句話說,它計算經濟的生產基礎,而不僅僅是它的貨幣財富。
In other words, it accounts for the economy’s productive base, rather than just its monetary wealth.
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Based on this framework, United Nations University and the UN Environment Program unveiled the Inclusive Wealth Report (IWR) at the 2012 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.
基於這一框架,聯合國大學和聯合國環境署在2012年裡約熱內盧地球峰會上釋出了包容性財富報告(Inclusive Wealth Report)。
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報告給出了20個國家的長期GDP和“包容性財富”對比,旨在鼓勵決策者採取更全面、更長期的經濟發展觀。
By providing a long-term comparison between GDP and “inclusive wealth” for 20 countries, the report aimed to motivate policymakers to take a more comprehensive, longer-term view of their economies’ development.
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今年11月將釋出第二份包容性財富報告,報告將增加很多國家的資料,並更關注國民賬戶指標中的人力資本。
This November, a second IWR will be released, with many more countries represented and a stronger focus on human capital in national-account indicators.
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To this end, collaborating experts will convene in Malaysia this month for a series of meetings, culminating in a public symposium entitled “Beyond Gross Domestic Product – Transitioning into Sustainability.”
在這方面,合作專家將於本月在馬來西亞召開系列會議,並出版題為《超越國內生產總值——向可持續性轉變》(Beyond Gross Domestic Product – Transitioning into Sustainability)的專題文集。
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轉變世界對經濟發展的理解需要動態方法。
Transforming the world’s understanding of economic development requires a dynamic approach.
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各個領域的專家——包括經濟學、社會學、心理學和自然科學——必須合作開發一系列指標,全面勾勒人類生產基礎圖景,作為人們解釋成功的基礎。
Experts in various fields – including economics, sociology, psychology, and the natural sciences – must work together to develop an integrated suite of indicators that provides a comprehensive picture of humanity’s productive base, on which people’s ability to pursue their interpretation of success depends.
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最終決定應取決於決策者和公民,但過程必須由最有效的科學指導,杜絕政治要求和既得利益的干擾。
While final decisions should rest with policymakers and citizens, the process must be guided by the best available science, uncompromised by political demands or vested interests.
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此外,一個根本事實必須得到承認:地球無法承受其七十億居民全部進入高收入水平。
Moreover, one fundamental truth must be recognized: the planet cannot accommodate high-income status for all seven billion of its inhabitants.
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如果每個國家人均GDP都達到13,000美元(世界銀行的高收入標準)的國家,全球GDP需要從今天的約72萬億美元增加到91萬億美元。
For every country to attain per capita GDP of $13,000 (which, according to the World Bank, delineates high-income status), global GDP would need to rise from roughly $72 trillion today to $91 trillion.
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但是,如果我們用了相當於1. 5個地球的資源來滿足我們的消費、吸收我們的浪費,那麼地球只能可持續地支援48—50萬億美元的GDP。
If, however, we already use the equivalent of 1.5 earths to provide the resources we consume and to absorb our waste, the planet can sustainably support a GDP of only $48-50 trillion.
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And if the planet already exceeds its sustainable carrying capacity, we should be reducing our demands on it – not adding new ones.
如果地球已經超出了其可持續運載的能力,我們就應該削減對它的要求——不再增加新要求。
翻譯成英文。
簡言之,我們不能再繼續依賴GDP增長及其所隱含的無限財富積累來解決我們的社會和經濟問題。
Simply put, we can no longer depend on GDP growth, and the limitless wealth accumulation that it implies, to solve our social and economic problems.
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世界必須讓其價值體系與這一現實協調。
The world must align its value systems with this reality.
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We must learn to do more with less, decouple economic growth from resource consumption, and nurture the social and spiritual aspects of our existence.
我們必須學會用更少的資源做更多的事,讓經濟增長與資源消費脫鉤,培養存在的社會和精神維度。
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This shift will be impossible without fundamental changes to our education systems, political structures, and institutions.
如果沒有教育體系、政治結構和制度的根本性變革,就不可能造成這一改變。
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任務是艱鉅的,但我們的未來取決於能否完成這一任務。
It is a tall order, but our future depends on fulfilling it.
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The Injustices of Zika
寨卡的不公平
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南安普頓—從衛生角度講,發展中世界傳染病爆發已經足夠糟糕了。
SOUTHAMPTON – Outbreaks of communicable diseases in the developing world are bad enough from a health perspective.
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但它們還給社會公平帶來了嚴重後果,因為它們加劇了存在已久的人道危機,包括惡化已經非常孱弱的公共服務供給和深化不平等性。
But they also have serious implications for social justice, because they exacerbate longstanding human-rights crises, including by undermining already-weak public-services provision and deepening existing inequalities.
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Like the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the Zika outbreak in Central and South America in 2015 hit vulnerable social groups – women and children, ethnic minorities, and the poor – the hardest.
和2014年西非埃博拉爆發一樣,2015年寨卡在中南美洲的爆發,首當其衝的也是社會弱勢群體——婦女和兒童、少數民族以及窮人。
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和黃熱病、登革熱和其他疾病一樣,寨卡由埃及伊蚊傳播。
Like yellow fever, dengue, and other diseases, Zika is transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes.
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But, unusually for a mosquito-borne virus, Zika can also be transmitted sexually.
但和通常的蚊子傳播的病毒不同,寨卡病毒還能通過性途徑傳播。
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更加反常的是,它還能影響嬰兒的神經系統和發育狀況,導致小頭症和格林-巴利綜合症。
Even more unusual, it is associated with neurological and developmental conditions affecting babies: microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome.
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若非如此,寨卡所引起的症狀通常沒有什麼大礙。
Otherwise, its symptoms are often rather mild.
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This means that, of the more than 1.5 million people stricken by Zika since the outbreak, the consequences were most worrying for women of child-bearing age, especially those who were already pregnant.
這意味著,在自寨卡爆發以來受其傳染的150多萬人中,育齡婦女的後果令人擔心,特別是已經懷孕的婦女。
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Between 2016 and 2017, a total of 11,059 Zika cases in pregnant women were confirmed, producing 10,867 cases of microcephaly and other congenital malformations of their babies’ central nervous systems.
2016—2017年間,共有11,059 例寨卡病例為孕婦,她們的嬰兒因此出現了10,867例小頭症和其他中樞神經系統先天畸形。
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Fifty-six percent of those babies were born to poor women and women of color from northeast Brazil.
在這些嬰兒中,有百分之六十五的母親是窮人或有色人種,生活在巴西東北部。
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顯然,寨卡危機不是性別中性的。
Clearly,the Zika crisis is not gender-neutral.
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In addressing its medium- to long-term consequences, a focus on women – especially poor women – is needed.
要解決它的中長期影響,就必須以婦女特別是貧窮婦女為焦點。
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這並不意味著媒體更多地報道與小頭症有關的畸形甚至這些嬰兒的母親面臨的困難。
That does not mean more media coverage of the deformities associated with microcephaly or even of the difficulties faced by their mothers.
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這也絕非意味著採取更多措施監控婦女的行為。
And it certainly does not mean more efforts to police women’s behavior.
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To avoid infection, women have been advised to use mosquito repellent; remove standing water around their homes; wear long sleeves; and, if possible, use condoms or avoid sex.
為了避免傳染,婦女們常常被建議驅蚊劑、移除住處周邊的死水、穿長袖衣褲,以及,如有可能,儘量使用避孕套或避免性生活。
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The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention advised pregnant women to refrain from traveling to affected countries.
美國疾病控制和預防中心建議孕婦不要去受影響國家旅行。
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Most extreme, health officials in El Salvador and Colombia urged women not to get pregnant until 2018.
更極端地,薩爾瓦多和哥倫比亞衛生官員要求婦女在2018年前不要懷孕。
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Such recommendations, however well intended they may be, are fundamentally flawed.
不管這些建議的初衷多麼良好,都存在根本性錯誤。
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首先,它們強調短期的控制和監控,而沒有將這種疾病和決定健康的社會和結構性因素聯絡起來,包括自來水、衛生設施和全民醫療等公共基礎設施。
For starters, they emphasize short-term-vector control and surveillance, while delinking the disease from the social and structural determinants of health, including public infrastructure such as running water, proper sanitation, and access to care.
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它們還把避免疾病和懷孕的主要責任推卸給婦女,而沒有認識到許多婦女根本沒有辦法控制自己的懷孕和性生活。
They also place the responsibility for avoiding disease and pregnancy primarily on women, while failing to recognize the lack of control many women have over their bodies and pregnancies.
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Many of the areas affected by Zika have high rates of sexual violence and teen pregnancy, a lack of sex education, and inadequate access to contraceptives.
許多受寨卡疫情影響的地區,性暴力和少女懷孕比例很高,性教育和避孕手段也不充分。
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出於這些原因,拉丁美洲50%以上的懷孕都屬於以外情況。
For these reasons, more than 50% of pregnancies in Latin America are unintended.
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更糟糕的是,在大部分受寨卡疫情影響的拉美國家,墮胎是非法行為,或只在特殊情況下才能允許。
Making matters worse, in most Latin American countries affected by Zika, abortion is illegal, or permitted only in exceptional situations.
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比如,薩爾瓦多在2015年12月到2016年1月間報告了7,000多例寨卡病例,但墮胎在這個國家是絕對禁止的。
For example, in El Salvador, where more than 7,000 cases of Zika were reported between December 2015 and January 2016, abortions are illegal under all circumstances.
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Miscarriages, if proven to be self-induced, can even lead to homicide convictions.
甚至因自身原因造成的早產也被視為殺人。
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美國的立場也起不到幫助。
The position of the United States hasn’t helped, either.
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去年,美國總統奧巴馬政府要求國會緊急撥款18億美元用於幫助準備和響應寨卡威脅。
Last year, US President Barack Obama’s administration asked Congress for $1.8 billion in emergency funding to help prepare for and respond to the Zika threat.
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但墮胎政治干預——共和黨立法者領銜要求就寨卡疫情爆發進行國會聽證——導致撥款需要以受助國有反墮胎政策為條件。
But abortion politics intervened, as Republican lawmakers, leading a congressional hearing on the Zika outbreak, made the funding conditional on anti-abortion policies in recipient countries.
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The problems with the dominant approach to containing the Zika virus – namely, that it saddles women with too much responsibility while giving them too little power – are not lost on everyone.
遏制寨卡病毒的主要方法的問題在於它們給了婦女太多的責任和太少的權力。 並不是所有人都對此無動於衷。
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Last year, the United Nations Refugee Agency and the World Health Organization emphasized the need to put human rights at the center of the response to the Zika outbreak.
去年,聯合國難民署和世界衛生組織強調,必須將人權放在應對寨卡疫情爆發措施的核心。
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But, while high-level recognition of women’s sexual and reproductive rights is a positive step, it is far from sufficient.
但是,儘管高屋建瓴地承認婦女的性和生殖權利是一個積極的舉措,但還遠遠不夠。
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而要保護這些權利,特別是發展中國家的貧窮的弱勢婦女的權利,我們需要深刻的重大政治承諾。
And doing what is needed to protect those rights, particularly among poor and vulnerable women in developing countries, will require deep and sustained political commitment.
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In particular, national legislation must be revised to ensure that all women – whether they are carrying a baby with microcephaly or not – have full reproductive autonomy.
特別是,國家立法必須進行修訂,以保證所有婦女——不管她們的胎兒是否存在小頭症——都獲得充分的生殖自主權。
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婦女必須能夠以自身身體和精神需要和渴望為基礎,而不是以權力機構的道德審判和刑事制裁的風險為基礎,來做出她們的生殖選擇。
Women must be able to base their reproductive choices on their own physical and emotional needs and desires, not on the moral judgments of powerful agents or risk of criminal sanctions.
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比如,巴西的遊說團體已經在推動這一結果,向最高法院遞交了訴狀,要求保證婦女更大的生殖權利,包括安全合法地墮胎的權利。
Advocacy groups in Brazil, for example, are already pushing for such an outcome, submitting legal cases to the Supreme Court to secure greater reproductive rights for women, including the right to safe and legal abortion.
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這些訴狀傾向於1988年國家憲法,其中授予婦女在遭遇強姦、面臨自身生命危險或無腦畸形(另外一種關於大腦有關的缺陷)等情況時有權利選擇墮胎。
Those cases tend to lean on the 1988 National Constitution, which guarantees the right to abortion in case of rape, danger to the mother’s life, or anencephaly, another birth defect involving the brain.
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在追求這些變革目標的過程中,支持者應該認清並解決婦女和殘疾權利之間的聯絡。
In pursuing these changes, campaigns should also recognize and address the links between women’s and disability rights.
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Indeed, they should advance equality for all marginalized groups.
事實上,他們應該推動所有邊緣群體獲得平等權利。
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寨卡的中長期後果比依靠這樣的思路來解決。
Zika’s medium- and long-term consequences must be addressed with this in mind.
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當婦女生下因為寨卡病毒而存在先天性疾病的兒童時,其應對手段應該基於尊嚴、價值觀和個體權利。
When a woman gives birth to a child with a congenital syndrome deriving from the Zika virus, the response should be grounded in the dignity, value, and rights of each individual.
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It should acknowledge the processes that keep certain individuals and groups in poverty and that deny them the basic rights of citizens.
應該認識到,現在的程式讓一些個體和群體陷入了貧困,剝奪了他們的基本公民權利。
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因此,我的支持者必須堅持,國家要負責為每位婦女和兒童提供合適的醫療和支援服務——這些服務既要滿足他們的需要,也要尊重他們的權利。
That is why campaigners must insist that the state be responsible for providing appropriate care and support services for each woman and child – services that both meet their needs and respect their rights.
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