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metadata

title: US Treasury Yield Curve Spread
emoji: 📉
colorFrom: purple
colorTo: indigo
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 4.44.0
python_version: '3.10'
app_file: app.py
pinned: true
license: cc-by-4.0
short_description: 2Y vs 10Y Treasury — recession indicator.
datasets:
  - iizy/calcfi-open-data
tags:
  - finance
  - treasury
  - yield-curve
  - recession
  - federal-reserve
  - data-viz
  - open-data
  - gradio

US Treasury Yield Curve Spread

Visualize the 2-year vs 10-year Treasury yield spread alongside the Federal Funds Rate. When the 10Y drops below the 2Y, the curve inverts — historically a leading indicator of US recessions with a 12-24 month lead time.

Why these series matter

The 2s/10s yield curve has inverted before every US recession since 1955, with a single false signal in the mid-1960s. The inversion itself is not the cause; it is the bond market pricing in expected Fed rate cuts in response to slowing growth. The lead time from inversion to recession averages 14 months but has ranged from 6 to 24 months. Pair this with the Federal Funds Rate to see how Fed policy itself drives the front end of the curve.

A library of free, primary-source-cited financial calculators that use these macro indicators as inputs is available at calcfi.app.

Methodology

Federal Funds Rate (Effective) — Federal Reserve via FRED, series DFF — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF
2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity — US Treasury via FRED, series DGS2 — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity — US Treasury via FRED, series DGS10 — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10

No smoothing, no imputation, no seasonal adjustment. Each observation passes through verbatim from the primary source. Provenance headers are preserved in the underlying CalcFi Open Data dataset.

Data source

The Space loads data live from the CalcFi Open Data dataset on Hugging Face: iizy/calcfi-open-data.

The same dataset is mirrored with permanent DOIs at:

Figshare: 10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290
Zenodo (CERN-backed): 10.5281/zenodo.20302283
OSF: 10.17605/OSF.IO/PUMKT
Kaggle: 10.34740/kaggle/dsv/16356447
Mendeley Data: 10.17632/jsnwhy6vjn.1

Related Spaces

Part of a small collection of CalcFi Open Data interactive explorers:

Citation & DOIs

This Space visualizes data from the CalcFi Open Data project. Source rate series are archived under CC-BY 4.0 across multiple persistent registries.

2026-06-06 snapshot DOIs (Zenodo community):

Methodology paper: 10.5281/zenodo.20567975
Live rate snapshot: 10.5281/zenodo.20567971
Calculator registry: 10.5281/zenodo.20567964
Full 37-record Zenodo archive: https://zenodo.org/communities/calcfi

Multi-registry mirror:

OSF: 10.17605/OSF.IO/2J45Q (methodology paper)
Harvard Dataverse: 10.7910/DVN/2LJXZM

Discovery surfaces:

Full research index: https://calcfi.app/research
Author ORCID: 0009-0000-0916-8684
Methodology and provenance: https://calcfi.app/about

Related work

Other HF Spaces in this set (10 total):

calcfi-mortgage-rate-explorer — 30Y, 15Y mortgage + 10Y Treasury
calcfi-inflation-wage-tracker — CPI + PCE + hourly earnings
calcfi-yield-curve-spread — Fed Funds + 2Y + 10Y, inversion shading
calcfi-fed-funds-cycle — Fed Funds + Prime + credit-card APR
calcfi-oil-gas-tracker — WTI + Brent + US gasoline
calcfi-fx-history — USD/EUR + USD/GBP + USD/JPY
calcfi-commodity-inflation — Copper + corn + CPI
calcfi-gdp-per-capita — US + Eurozone GDP per capita
calcfi-labor-market — Unemployment + LFP
calcfi-consumer-credit — Credit card APR + personal loan rate

Long-form Observable notebooks built on the same dataset:

CodePen calculator demos (vanilla JS, MIT) — view all 6 in collection:

Static dataset documentation:

GitLab Pages site — catalog, methodology, citation guide
Hugging Face dataset card

Author profiles (Person entity graph):

Live tools at calcfi.app: 300+ free personal-finance calculators built on the same primary-source data layer (FRED, BLS, Freddie Mac, US Treasury).

Citation

Salmisto, J. (2026). CalcFi Open Data: 34 Free CC-BY Financial and Macro Time Series Mirrored from Primary Sources [Dataset]. Figshare. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290

ORCID: 0009-0000-0916-8684

Companion surfaces

Free calculators (300+): calcfi.app — every tool cited to a primary source
Underlying dataset: CalcFi Open Data on Hugging Face — 34 CC-BY series
Live SQL endpoint (Datasette): calcfi-open-data.vercel.app
Python client: pip install calcfidata (PyPI · Anaconda)
Documentation: calcfidata.readthedocs.io
Query mirrors: data.world · DoltHub (versioned) · MotherDuck (cloud DuckDB)
Other visualizations: 10 HF Spaces · 3 Observable notebooks · 6 CodePen demos
Permanent DOIs: Figshare · Zenodo · OSF · Kaggle · Mendeley

Built by Jere Salmisto — founder of calcfi.app.

Distribution mesh — also available on

Static landing pages (8 mirrors):

Permanent DOIs (5):

Packages: PyPI calcfidata · npm calcfidata · Anaconda · Go pkg · Julia · dbt · Read the Docs

Data catalogs / warehouses: BigQuery Public · data.world · DoltHub · MotherDuck

Repos: GitLab · GitHub · Codeberg

Companion website: calcfi.app — free personal-finance calculators built on this dataset.

Author: Jere Salmisto · ORCID 0009-0000-0916-8684

License: CC BY 4.0 (data) · MIT (code)