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---
title: US Treasury Yield Curve Spread
emoji: 📉
colorFrom: purple
colorTo: indigo
sdk: gradio
sdk_version: 4.44.0
python_version: '3.10'
app_file: app.py
pinned: true
license: cc-by-4.0
short_description: 2Y vs 10Y Treasury — recession indicator.
datasets:
- iizy/calcfi-open-data
tags:
- finance
- treasury
- yield-curve
- recession
- federal-reserve
- data-viz
- open-data
- gradio
---

# US Treasury Yield Curve Spread

[![Figshare DOI](https://img.shields.io/badge/Figshare%20DOI-10.6084%2Fm9.figshare.32332290-blue)](https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290)
[![Zenodo DOI](https://img.shields.io/badge/Zenodo%20DOI-10.5281%2Fzenodo.20302283-1682D4)](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20302283)
[![CC BY 4.0](https://img.shields.io/badge/License-CC%20BY%204.0-lightgrey)](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Visualize the 2-year vs 10-year Treasury yield spread alongside the Federal Funds Rate. When the 10Y drops below the 2Y, the curve inverts — historically a leading indicator of US recessions with a 12-24 month lead time.

## Why these series matter

The 2s/10s yield curve has inverted before every US recession since 1955, with a single false signal in the mid-1960s. The inversion itself is not the cause; it is the bond market pricing in expected Fed rate cuts in response to slowing growth. The lead time from inversion to recession averages 14 months but has ranged from 6 to 24 months. Pair this with the Federal Funds Rate to see how Fed policy itself drives the front end of the curve.

A library of free, primary-source-cited financial calculators that use these macro indicators as inputs is available at [calcfi.app](https://calcfi.app).

## Methodology

- **Federal Funds Rate (Effective)** — Federal Reserve via FRED, series `DFF` — [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF)
- **2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity** — US Treasury via FRED, series `DGS2` — [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2)
- **10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity** — US Treasury via FRED, series `DGS10` — [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)

No smoothing, no imputation, no seasonal adjustment. Each observation passes through verbatim from the primary source. Provenance headers are preserved in the underlying [CalcFi Open Data](https://huggingface.co/datasets/iizy/calcfi-open-data) dataset.

## Data source

The Space loads data live from the CalcFi Open Data dataset on Hugging Face:
[`iizy/calcfi-open-data`](https://huggingface.co/datasets/iizy/calcfi-open-data).

The same dataset is mirrored with permanent DOIs at:

- Figshare: [10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290](https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290)
- Zenodo (CERN-backed): [10.5281/zenodo.20302283](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20302283)
- OSF: [10.17605/OSF.IO/PUMKT](https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/PUMKT)
- Kaggle: [10.34740/kaggle/dsv/16356447](https://doi.org/10.34740/kaggle/dsv/16356447)
- Mendeley Data: [10.17632/jsnwhy6vjn.1](https://doi.org/10.17632/jsnwhy6vjn.1)

## Related Spaces

Part of a small collection of CalcFi Open Data interactive explorers:

- [US Mortgage Rate Explorer](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-mortgage-rate-explorer)
- [Inflation vs Wage Growth Tracker](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-inflation-wage-tracker)
- [US Treasury Yield Curve Spread](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-yield-curve-spread)
- [Fed Funds Rate Cycle Explorer](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-fed-funds-cycle)
- [Oil and Gas Price Tracker](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-oil-gas-tracker)

## Citation & DOIs

This Space visualizes data from the [CalcFi Open Data project](https://calcfi.app/). Source rate series are archived under [CC-BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) across multiple persistent registries.

**2026-06-06 snapshot DOIs (Zenodo community):**
- Methodology paper: [10.5281/zenodo.20567975](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20567975)
- Live rate snapshot: [10.5281/zenodo.20567971](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20567971)
- Calculator registry: [10.5281/zenodo.20567964](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20567964)
- Full 37-record Zenodo archive: https://zenodo.org/communities/calcfi

**Multi-registry mirror:**
- OSF: [10.17605/OSF.IO/2J45Q](https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/2J45Q) (methodology paper)
- Harvard Dataverse: [10.7910/DVN/2LJXZM](https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/2LJXZM)

**Discovery surfaces:**
- Full research index: https://calcfi.app/research
- Author ORCID: [0009-0000-0916-8684](https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0916-8684)
- Methodology and provenance: https://calcfi.app/about

## Related work

**Other HF Spaces in this set (10 total):**
- [calcfi-mortgage-rate-explorer](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-mortgage-rate-explorer) — 30Y, 15Y mortgage + 10Y Treasury
- [calcfi-inflation-wage-tracker](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-inflation-wage-tracker) — CPI + PCE + hourly earnings
- [calcfi-yield-curve-spread](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-yield-curve-spread) — Fed Funds + 2Y + 10Y, inversion shading
- [calcfi-fed-funds-cycle](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-fed-funds-cycle) — Fed Funds + Prime + credit-card APR
- [calcfi-oil-gas-tracker](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-oil-gas-tracker) — WTI + Brent + US gasoline
- [calcfi-fx-history](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-fx-history) — USD/EUR + USD/GBP + USD/JPY
- [calcfi-commodity-inflation](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-commodity-inflation) — Copper + corn + CPI
- [calcfi-gdp-per-capita](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-gdp-per-capita) — US + Eurozone GDP per capita
- [calcfi-labor-market](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-labor-market) — Unemployment + LFP
- [calcfi-consumer-credit](https://huggingface.co/spaces/iizy/calcfi-consumer-credit) — Credit card APR + personal loan rate

**Long-form Observable notebooks built on the same dataset:**
- [Mortgage Spread Over Treasury (50 years)](https://observablehq.com/@iizy/mortgage-spread-over-treasury-50-years)
- [Yield Curve Recession Indicator (2s/10s)](https://observablehq.com/@iizy/yield-curve-recession-indicator-2s-10s)
- [Inflation vs Fed Target (2% History)](https://observablehq.com/@iizy/inflation-vs-fed-target-2-percent-history)

**CodePen calculator demos (vanilla JS, MIT)** — [view all 6 in collection](https://codepen.io/collection/BawbdB):
- [Compound Interest Calculator](https://codepen.io/Jere-S/pen/LEbyJQe)
- [Mortgage Amortization Chart](https://codepen.io/Jere-S/pen/zxowJaw)
- [Inflation-Adjusted Returns](https://codepen.io/Jere-S/pen/pvNPOZg)
- [30Y Mortgage Rate History (FRED Data)](https://codepen.io/Jere-S/pen/emBWLLg)
- [Retirement Corpus Projection](https://codepen.io/Jere-S/pen/ByQROqg)
- [CPI vs Wages Tracker](https://codepen.io/Jere-S/pen/qEqmMQo)

**Static dataset documentation:**
- [GitLab Pages site](https://calcfi-open-data-4a2bc1.gitlab.io/) — catalog, methodology, citation guide
- [Hugging Face dataset card](https://huggingface.co/datasets/iizy/calcfi-open-data)

**Author profiles (Person entity graph):**
- [ORCID 0009-0000-0916-8684](https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0916-8684)
- [Academia.edu — Jere K Salmisto](https://independent.academia.edu/JereS6)
- [GitLab — jere.salmisto](https://gitlab.com/jere.salmisto)
- [CodePen — Jere-S](https://codepen.io/Jere-S)

**Live tools at [calcfi.app](https://calcfi.app):** 300+ free personal-finance calculators built on the same primary-source data layer (FRED, BLS, Freddie Mac, US Treasury).

## Citation

> Salmisto, J. (2026). *CalcFi Open Data: 34 Free CC-BY Financial and Macro Time Series Mirrored from Primary Sources* [Dataset]. Figshare. https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290

ORCID: [0009-0000-0916-8684](https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0916-8684)

<!-- calcfi-mesh-footer-v2026-05-21 -->

---

## Companion surfaces

- **Free calculators (300+):** [calcfi.app](https://calcfi.app) — every tool cited to a primary source
- **Underlying dataset:** [CalcFi Open Data on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/iizy/calcfi-open-data) — 34 CC-BY series
- **Live SQL endpoint (Datasette):** [calcfi-open-data.vercel.app](https://calcfi-open-data.vercel.app/)
- **Python client:** `pip install calcfidata` ([PyPI](https://pypi.org/project/calcfidata/) · [Anaconda](https://anaconda.org/jeresalmisto/calcfidata))
- **Documentation:** [calcfidata.readthedocs.io](https://calcfidata.readthedocs.io/)
- **Query mirrors:** [data.world](https://data.world/jerehere/calcfi-open-data) · [DoltHub (versioned)](https://www.dolthub.com/repositories/jerehere/calcfi-open-data) · [MotherDuck (cloud DuckDB)](https://app.motherduck.com/share/92e4b6ab-46e0-42f4-8ebb-9e7ab22eae00)
- **Other visualizations:** [10 HF Spaces](https://huggingface.co/iizy) · [3 Observable notebooks](https://observablehq.com/@iizy) · [6 CodePen demos](https://codepen.io/collection/BawbdB)
- **Permanent DOIs:** [Figshare](https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290) · [Zenodo](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20302283) · [OSF](https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/PUMKT) · [Kaggle](https://doi.org/10.34740/kaggle/dsv/16356447) · [Mendeley](https://doi.org/10.17632/jsnwhy6vjn.1)

> Built by [Jere Salmisto](https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0916-8684) — founder of [calcfi.app](https://calcfi.app).

---

## Distribution mesh — also available on

**Static landing pages (8 mirrors):**
- [GitLab Pages (canonical)](https://calcfi-open-data-4a2bc1.gitlab.io/)
- [GitHub Pages](https://jeresalmisto.github.io/calcfi-open-data/)
- [Cloudflare Pages](https://calcfi-open-data.pages.dev/)
- [Codeberg Pages (EU)](https://jerehere.codeberg.page/calcfi-open-data/)
- [Surge.sh](https://calcfi-open-data.surge.sh/)
- [Netlify](https://calcfi-open-data.netlify.app/)
- [AWS S3](https://calcfi-open-data.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/index.html)
- [Datasette (live SQL)](https://calcfi-open-data.vercel.app/)

**Permanent DOIs (5):**
- [Figshare 10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290](https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.32332290)
- [Zenodo 10.5281/zenodo.20302283](https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20302283) (CERN)
- [OSF 10.17605/OSF.IO/PUMKT](https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/PUMKT)
- [Kaggle 10.34740/kaggle/dsv/16356447](https://doi.org/10.34740/kaggle/dsv/16356447)
- [Mendeley Data 10.17632/jsnwhy6vjn.1](https://doi.org/10.17632/jsnwhy6vjn.1)

**Packages:** [PyPI `calcfidata`](https://pypi.org/project/calcfidata/) · [npm `calcfidata`](https://www.npmjs.com/package/calcfidata) · [Anaconda](https://anaconda.org/jeresalmisto/calcfidata) · [Go pkg](https://pkg.go.dev/gitlab.com/jere.salmisto/calcfi-open-data/go) · [Julia](https://github.com/jeresalmisto/CalcFiData.jl) · [dbt](https://github.com/jeresalmisto/dbt-calcfi-open-data) · [Read the Docs](https://calcfidata.readthedocs.io/)

**Data catalogs / warehouses:** [BigQuery Public](https://console.cloud.google.com/bigquery/analytics-hub/discovery/projects/1099067620437/locations/us/dataExchanges/calcfi_open_data_exchange/listings/calcfi_open_data) · [data.world](https://data.world/jerehere/calcfi-open-data) · [DoltHub](https://www.dolthub.com/repositories/jerehere/calcfi-open-data) · [MotherDuck](https://app.motherduck.com/share/92e4b6ab-46e0-42f4-8ebb-9e7ab22eae00)

**Repos:** [GitLab](https://gitlab.com/jere.salmisto/calcfi-open-data) · [GitHub](https://github.com/jeresalmisto/calcfi-open-data) · [Codeberg](https://codeberg.org/jerehere/calcfi-open-data)

**Companion website:** [calcfi.app](https://calcfi.app) — free personal-finance calculators built on this dataset.

**Author:** [Jere Salmisto](https://calcfi.app/about) · ORCID [0009-0000-0916-8684](https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0916-8684)

License: CC BY 4.0 (data) · MIT (code)