THL-Llama-3.3-70B-LoRA

A LoRA adapter for Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct trained using Temporal Hindsight Learning (THL) — a framework that converts raw historical logs into high-quality reasoning supervision by having a Teacher model generate "ideal prediction" traces using hindsight.

Paper: Temporal Hindsight Learning: Training Calibrated Reasoners with Future Oracles

Key Result

The THL Student (this model) achieves accuracy parity with its Teacher (Gemini 3 Flash, a ~1T frontier model) on genuinely unseen February–May 2025 events (Mann-Whitney U, p=0.97), while significantly outperforming the untrained base model (p<0.001). A 70B model trained on 505 reasoning traces matches a model with an order of magnitude more parameters.

Model Details

  • Base model: meta-llama/Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct (4-bit quantized via Unsloth)
  • Adapter: LoRA (rank 16, alpha 16) targeting all linear modules (q, k, v, o, gate, up, down projections)
  • Quantization: 4-bit NF4 via QLoRA
  • Knowledge cutoff: December 2023 (base model)
  • Developed by: Henrik Westerberg / Emergent Wisdom
  • License: MIT

Training

  • Method: Supervised fine-tuning on Teacher-generated "Ideal Prediction" reasoning traces
  • Teacher: Gemini 3 Flash Preview (knowledge cutoff: January 2025)
  • Training data: 505 reasoning traces across 106 global events from January–December 2024
  • Reasoning structure: Each trace follows the Forecasting Pentagon — five angles (Structural/Mechanism, Economic/Incentives, Political/Social, Base Rates/Precedents, Temporal/Pacing)
  • Hardware: NVIDIA T4 on Google Colab Free Tier
  • Framework: Unsloth + PEFT 0.18.1

Evaluation

Evaluated on 15 genuinely unseen events from February–May 2025 (75 exam prompts across all five Pentagon angles). Scored by Claude Opus 4.6 (independent Auditor from a different model family than the Teacher).

Model Role Median Score vs Base
Base Llama-3.3 Frozen (Dec 2023) Lower
THL Student Trained on 2024 Higher p<0.001
Gemini 3 Flash Teacher baseline Comparable p=0.97 vs THL

Usage

from peft import PeftModel
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer

base_model = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained(
    "meta-llama/Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct",
    load_in_4bit=True,
)
model = PeftModel.from_pretrained(base_model, "emergent-wisdom/thl-llama-3.3-70b-lora")
tokenizer = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained("emergent-wisdom/thl-llama-3.3-70b-lora")

Reasoning Format

The model produces structured reasoning traces:

**What I know from the context:**
[Analysis of provided context clues]

**What I know from my training (pre-2024):**
[Relevant pre-cutoff knowledge]

**Causal Analysis:**
[Step-by-step causal reasoning]

**My Prediction:**
[Calibrated prediction with probability estimates]

Citation

@misc{westerberg2026thl,
  author = {Westerberg, Henrik},
  title = {Temporal Hindsight Learning: Training Calibrated Reasoners with Future Oracles},
  year = {2026},
  publisher = {Emergent Wisdom}
}

Repository

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