These patterns confirm the critical role of southeastern and southern Europe as hotspots of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities. 4. CCA – potential direct risks and opportunities for the agriculture sector Opportunities Higher temperatures (incl. heat spells and heat Crop yield changes for major crops (winter wheat, corn and sunflower) Potential favorable longer growing season (crop shifts) Water shortage Soil carbon losses: Optimize genetic potential (crops and livestock) Existing pests/organisms will become stronger Solar farming (save electricity costs) Increase evaporation and transpiration in plants Diversify crop and varieties Stress on animals/livestock (animal productivity decrease) Hybrid seed technologies Different diseases on animals/ livestock Lower heating cost New viruses and fungal diseases Cost for breading Loss of (shorter reproductive periods) Lower temperatures (incl. cold spells and cold waves) Loss of Good for sensitive plants Effect on plant growth (damaging roots of plants) Crop substitution Increase energy and cost in livestock farms More precipitation and humidity Soil erosion (soil surface loss) Increasing soil’s infiltration capacity Crop failure Balanced mineral fertilization Crop quality decrease Insurance on crop and livestock Drainage problem Integrated drainage systems Infectious diseases Loss of income Loss of utilized land surface Droughts Soil moisture (decomposition of soil organic matter, soil salinization) Improve irrigation systems Desertification Additional land conversion pressures Crop yield decrease Water shortage Lost land for pasture (pasture shortage) Increase of winds and storms Loss of crop (Morphological changes (due to exposure to wind) Effective pollination Damage farm infrastructure and facilities Soil moisture stress, wind erosion Damage flowering period Increase water for crops
Energy Need for biomass as a fuel Production of bio gas Wind and solar farming Competition regarding water resources Water pumping – higher electricity costs Higher risk of electricity grid failure Forestry Shelterbelts to attenuate climate effects Erosion control Use abandoned lands for afforestation Warmer climate contribute to prolonged growing season for trees Reduced availability of agricultural land for food production Crop damage (wind, water run-off) Intensity, frequency and magnitude of forest fires will increase Human health Design food security systems Increased demand for refreshing types of food products Workers health and productivity may decrease Tourism New food types to be marketed Development of farm tourism Increase demand of food Competition regarding water resources Transport Benefit of road network improvement will also positively impact the agriculture sector Save cost of faster transport of supplies, crop and livestock products Accessibility of farm lands, storage – disturbance of transport lines Poor irrigation systems can damage transport infrastructure, thus also harm access to agricultural areas Increase of costs for transport Urban environment Establish food reserves to mitigate food needs in times of disaster Develop agriculture Cities and agriculture will compete for water resources Urban areas become more fire sensitive (risks from agricultural burning practice) Develop new crop species requiring less water Reduced availability of water and stress on crops and animals Floods Competition regarding resources regarding drinking water use Note: The above Matrix of sectoral interdependencies reflects how climate change effects in one sector affect the Agriculture sector positively or negatively 3.5. Priority Setting Approach Prioritizing is necessary to better understand which areas need to be addressed urgently and provide a rationale for focusing the adaptation assessment on key issues. Climate change is an urgent issue that requires immediate attention. Impacts on agriculture (both positive and negative) are of varying significance. Some areas require immediate action while others may require a more flexible approach and/or long-term actions. For example, short-term measures include changes in agronomic practices, such as changes in crop varieties and date of planting and harvesting, changes in the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and
production aiming at optimal crop selection and development of varieties best suited and more resistant to new conditions of temperature and humidity. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social +++ ++ +++ Opportunities that arise Optimal crop selection and development of climate-adapted crops. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agriculture production, economic and social impact as well. Risks addressed Extreme weather variability / agricultural productivity. Better management of existing woodland, hedgerows, woody buffer strips and trees on agricultural land Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X X Description Better management of existing woodland, hedgerows, woody buffer strips and trees on agricultural land to optimize benefits providing shelter to both livestock and crops. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social ++ ++ ++ Opportunities that arise Better shelter for livestock and crops. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agriculture production, livestock shelter, economic and social impact as well. Risks addressed Variability of productivity. Improve pest and disease control Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X X Description Improve pest and disease control through better monitoring, diversified crop rotations, or integrated pest management. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social ++ +++ ++ Opportunities that Development of integrated pest management actions that prevent pest and disease formation. relevance YES Agriculture production, livestock, economic and social impact as well. Risks addressed Diminishes the risk of further spread of numerous weeds, diseases and pests in agriculture. Options for livestock Develop systems and mechanisms for storing water on farms Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X X X Description Develop systems and mechanisms for storing water on farms, securing independent water sources and rationalizing water use. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social +++ ++ ++ Opportunities that arise Securing independent water sources and rationalizing water use for improved economic benefits. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agriculture production, livestock, economic and social impact as
Description Eliminate secondary salinization conditions, such as irrigation by highly mineralized groundwater sources, naturally or anthropogenically induced deterioration of drainage in intensively irrigated areas; disadvantageous and unsuitable structure of arable land given respective conditions of the soil and hydro-melioration infrastructure. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ + Opportunities that arise Improved irrigation infrastructure to address the issue. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Desertification, soil productivity, etc. Eliminate conditions for anthropogenic soil acidification Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Eliminate conditions for anthropogenic soil acidification (surface unbalanced mineral fertilization). Acidification causes the loss of base cations, increases the aluminum saturation and leads to declining crop yields and possible structural deterioration. Soil acidity is ameliorated by applying lime or other acid‐neutralizing materials. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ + Opportunities that arise Improve agricultural productivity and reduce soil acidification. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. addressed Soil acidification and structural deterioration. Improve soil management by increasing retention Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Improve soil management by increasing water retention to conserve soil moisture. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ + Opportunities that arise Storing water in soil decreases the negative impacts of droughts. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Droughts, water stress, etc. Maintain and improve existing aquaculture habitats Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Maintain and improve existing aquaculture habitats, the fish access to spawning, and create new habitats in deep lakes and basins. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ ++ Opportunities that arise Enhancing and enabling existing aquaculture habitats. Cross-cutting relevance YES Aquaculture, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Aquaculture loss, etc. Building adaptive capacity Develop climate change trainings for the administrative staff in governmental institutions Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X X X X