ABARES most recent assessment (2016) Biomass: Fishing mortality: GVP figures (2014-15 fishing season) GVP % fishery GVP $2.4 million 3.5% Recommended Biological Catch 2017 - 18 526 t Overcatch/undercatch 10 per cent undercatch 10 per cent overcatch Probability of recommended biological catch (RBC) (or other levels of catch) causing a decline below limit reference under proposed management Species that follow a HS rule that has been MSE tested will have a “very unlikely” score in this section (i.e. P<10 %). Tier 4 assessments do not assess the probability of being below the reference point. However, the RAG considers the current assessment to be conservative. The RBC is taken from the MSE-tested harvest control rules. If the standardised CPUE series is a reasonable index of relative abundance the RBC will have a very low probability of causing a decline below the limit reference point. Alternative Catch Scenarios: N/A (Tier 4) Assessment Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tier /rollover /MYTAC Tier 4 Tier 4 Rollover Tier 4 MYTAC Tier 4 Tier 4 Stock Status CPUE between target and limit CPUE between target and limit Not assessed CPUE between target and limit MYTAC CPUE between target and limit CPUE between target and limit
Probability of recommended biological catch (RBC) (or other levels of catch) causing a decline below limit reference under proposed management Species that follow a HS rule that has been MSE tested will have a “very unlikely” score in this section (i.e. P<10 %). Alternative Scenarios: N/A – Already considered to be below the limit reference point. Assessment Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tier /rollover /MYTAC Tier 4 Tier 4 Tier 4 Tier 4 Not assessed Not assessed Not assessed Stock Status E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than limit E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than limit E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than limit E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than limit E: CPUE less than limit W: CPUE less than limit Fishing Year 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 RBC (t) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agreed TAC 133 118 118 118 118 118 118 Actual TAC (t) after overs/unders 133 118 118 118 118 118 118 % TAC caught 73 41 55 14 2 Tier Level & Discounts Tier - for details of Tiers and the Harvest Strategy, see: Discount factor N/A (incidental catch TAC) Is a multi-year TAC in place? Yes (in place this season) No
GVP figures (2015-16 fishing season) GVP % fishery GVP $4.2 million 6% (49% of GABTF) Recommended Biological Catch One year: 1155 tonnes. Three year: 1128 tonnes Five year: 1115 tonnes Overcatch/undercatch 10% undercatch 10% overcatch Probability of recommended biological catch (RBC) (or other levels of catch) causing a decline below limit reference under proposed management Species that follow a HS rule that has been MSE tested will have a “very unlikely” in this section (i.e. P<10%). RBC recommendation = <10% (Very Unlikely) Alternative Catch Scenarios = N/A TAC and catch trends Assessment Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tier /rollover /MYTAC Tier 1 Tier 1 Tier 1 Multi year TAC Multi year TAC Tier 1 Stock Status (% of unfished biomass) 33% 39% 45% Not assessed Not assessed 45% Fishing Year 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 RBC 1733 979 1146 1112 1112 1128 Agreed TAC 1560 1150 1150 1150 1150 Actual TAC after overs/unders 1723 1301 1264 1265 1256 % TAC caught 55 68 52 50 18
Tier Level & Discounts Tier Level - for details of Tiers and the Harvest Strategy, see: Discount factor 0 % Is a multi-year TAC in place? Yes (in place this season) 2016-17 is the final year of the TAC. No Is a multi-year TAC recommended? (please provide a clear indication on whether the recommendation is a RBC (e.g. based on Tier 1 model output) or TAC (e.g. a roll-over of catch)) Yes (recommended for future seasons) Three year: 1128 t Five year: 1115 t No Breakout for multi-year TAC Observed standardized CPUE or FIS (when run) falls outside the 95 per cent confidence intervals projected from the assessment. Have breakout rules been triggered? N/A Assessment Stock indicator trends remaining above target, estimated spawning biomass suggests a gradual decline toward the target since 2012-13. The spread of ages in recent age data indicates the is year year
Recommended Biological Catch Single year RBCs 2017: 2,886 2018: 2,865 2019: 2,848 2020: 2,834 2021: 2,823 RBCs 1 year: 2 886t 3 year: 2 866t 5 year: 2 851t Overcatch/undercatch 10% undercatch 10% overcatch Very unlikely (P<10%) 18
Tier /rollover /MYTAC MYTAC MYTAC Tier 1 MYTAC MYTAC Tier 1 Stock Status Not assessed Not assessed 50% Not assessed Not assessed 42% Fishing Year 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 RBC (t) Not assessed Not assessed 1 year: 3428 t 3 year: 3334 t 5 year: 3252 t 3334 3334 1 year: 2886 t Agreed TAC 2741 2750 2878 2860 2882 Actual TAC overs/unders 2837 2835 3143 3092 2992 % TAC caught 95 81 90 94 Tier Level & Discounts Tier Level - for details of and the Harvest Strategy, see: Discount factor N/A Is a multi-year TAC in place? Yes (in place this season) No Is a multi-year TAC recommended? (please provide a clear indication on whether the multi-year recommendation is a RBC (e.g. based on Tier 1 model output) or TAC (e.g. a of catch)) Yes (recommended for future seasons) No The RAG has recommended a single year RBC until the stock assessment has been updated. See RAG comments section below.
Probability of recommended biological catch (RBC) (or other levels of catch) causing a decline below limit reference under proposed management Species that follow a HS rule that has been MSE tested will have a “very unlikely” score in this section (i.e. P<10%). The RAG considered a Tier 1 assessment, Tier 4 assessment, and catch history in a weight of evidence approach to recommend an RBC. These indicated that there was a low risk of the stock declining below the limit reference point. Over the last five years catch and discards have remained below the RBC. Alternative Catch Scenarios = N/A TAC and catch trends Assessment Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Tier /rollover /MYTAC Tier 1 Rollover of 2011 assessment Tier 1 (Tier 4 used to set CTS TAC) 2nd year of 3 year MYTAC 3rd year of a 3 year Tier 1 Tier 4 Stock Status 78% Rollover of 2011 assessment Tier 1 Tier 4 - CPUE between the target and limit Not assessed Not assessed Tier 1 – 43% Tier 4 (CTS) Above the limit (no discards) and above the target (discards) Fishing Year 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 (CTS area) RBC (t) 613 613 676 (T1) 346 (T4) 247 (T4) 247 (T4) 200 (T1) 139 (T4) 423 (T4 discards) Agreed TAC (SET only) 141 199 199 183 247 Actual TAC overs/unders 147 211 217 200 261 % TAC caught 37 35 33 41 Tier Level & Discounts
Tier /rollover /MYTAC Tier 3 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 1 Incidental TAC TAC Target B48 B48 B48 B48 B48 B48 B48 Stock Status Fishing mortality less than target Tier 3 - Fishing mortality less than target Tier 4 – CPUE lower than limit Tier 3 - Fishing mortality less than target Tier 4 – CPUE lower than limit Tier 3 - Fishing mortality less than target Tier 4 – CPUE lower than limit <BLIM <BLIM <BLIM Fishing Year 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 RBC 1985 Tier 3 – 1569 Tier 4 – 0 Tier 3 – 2932 Tier 4 - 0 Tier 3 – 3791 Tier 4 - 0 0 0 0 Agreed TAC 276 276 276 138 100 100 Actual TAC after overs/unders 330 299 303 164 100 100 % TAC caught 28 22 30 48 45 Tier Level & Discounts Tier A Tier 1 assessment was undertaken in 2014. For details of Tiers and the Harvest Strategy, see: Discount factor 0 per cent Is a multi-year TAC in place? Yes (in place this season) No Is a multi-year TAC recommended? (please provide a indication on whether the multi-year recommendation is a RBC (e.g. based on Tier 1 model output) or TAC (e.g. a roll-over of catch)) Yes (recommended for future seasons) No Breakout rules for TAC N/A Have breakout rules been triggered? N/A Assessment Stock indicator trends The 2014 Tier 1 assessment estimates an increase in recruitment. This was supported by preliminary results from