These patterns confirm the critical role of southeastern and southern Europe as hotspots of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities. Table 4. CCA – potential direct risks and opportunities for the agriculture sector Opportunities Higher temperatures (incl. heat spells and heat waves) Crop yield changes for major crops (winter wheat, corn and sunflower) Potential favorable longer growing season (crop shifts) Water shortage Soil carbon losses: Optimize genetic potential and livestock) Existing pests/organisms will become stronger farming (save electricity costs) Increase evaporation and transpiration in plants Diversify crop and varieties Stress on animals/livestock (animal productivity decrease) Hybrid seed technologies Different diseases on animals/ livestock Lower heating cost New viruses and fungal diseases Cost for breading Loss of crops (shorter reproductive periods) Lower temperatures (incl. cold spells and cold waves) Loss of crops Good for sensitive plants Effect on plant growth (damaging roots of plants) Crop substitution Increase energy and cost in livestock More precipitation and humidity Soil erosion (soil surface loss) Increasing soil’s infiltration capacity Crop failure Balanced mineral fertilization Crop quality decrease Insurance on crop and livestock Drainage problem Integrated drainage systems Infectious diseases Loss of income Loss of utilized land surface Droughts Soil moisture (decomposition of soil organic matter, soil salinization) Improve irrigation systems Desertification Additional land conversion pressures Crop yield decrease Water shortage Lost land for pasture (pasture shortage) Increase of winds and storms Loss of crop (Morphological changes (due to exposure to wind) Effective pollination Damage farm infrastructure and facilities Soil moisture stress, wind erosion Damage flowering period Increase water for crops Loss utilized land
Annex 2. Climate Change Adaptation Options in Detail Table 17. Adaptation Options Presented in Detail CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION OPTIONS Options for agricultural productivity Adjust the timing of farm operations Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Adjust the timing of farm operations, such as planting or sowing dates and treatments, in response to agrophenology. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social +++ ++ +++ Opportunities that arise Optimize and increase yields. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agriculture production, economic and social impact as well. addressed Variability of agricultural productivity. Grow thermophilic crops within the country Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Grow thermophilic crops within the country, increase thermal resources and explore opportunities to grow more thermophilic crops within the country. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social +++ ++ +++ Opportunities that arise Optimize and increase yields. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agriculture production, economic and social impact as well. Risks addressed Variability of agricultural productivity. Develop suitable irrigation systems Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Develop suitable irrigation systems to maintain crop yields and productivity. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social +++ ++ +++ Opportunities that arise Optimize and maintain crop yields and productivity. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agriculture production, economic and social impact as well. addressed Variability of agricultural productivity. Develop climate-adapted crops Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Develop climate-adapted crops through agricultural research and
functions; first it as a revolving nutrient bank account; and second, as an agent to improve soil structure, maintain tilth, and minimize erosion. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social ++ ++ ++ Opportunities that arise Helps improve agricultural productivity. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Declining soil productivity Use soil cultivation machines and technologies Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Careful soil cultivation (with minimum pressure on the soil surface) can improve the soil capacity to retain water, its aeration, capacity of infiltration, warming up, evaporation etc. But soil cultivation can also harm the soil fertility as it accelerates erosion and the decomposition of humus. It is therefore important to use soil cultivation machines and technologies with minimum pressure on the soil surface. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social ++ ++ ++ Opportunities that arise Helps improve agricultural productivity. relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Declining soil productivity Use plant residues from agrarian plant rotation as raw material for various industries Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Use residues from agrarian plant rotation for ploughing, briquetting, burning in special furnaces as a raw material for various industries, and so on, instead of burning them directly on the field. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ ++ Opportunities that arise Diminish burning residues directly on the field and turn them into commercially viable raw materials for various industries. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Waste pollution Improve water management practices Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X X Description Improve water management practices. Implement management practices to ensure the effective use of water (reducing water losses) improving irrigation practices and efficiency, and recycling or storing water. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social ++ + + Opportunities that arise Improves water management and irrigation efficiency, reduces economic losses. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Water scarcity / water stress / water loss. Eliminate secondary salinization conditions Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X
Description Eliminate secondary salinization conditions, such as irrigation by highly mineralized groundwater sources, naturally or anthropogenically induced deterioration of drainage in intensively irrigated areas; disadvantageous and unsuitable structure of arable land given respective conditions of the soil and hydro-melioration infrastructure. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ + Opportunities that Improved irrigation infrastructure to address the issue. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Desertification, soil productivity, etc. Eliminate conditions for anthropogenic soil acidification Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Eliminate conditions for anthropogenic soil acidification (surface unbalanced mineral fertilization). Acidification causes the loss of base cations, increases the aluminum saturation and leads to declining crop yields and possible structural deterioration. Soil acidity is ameliorated by applying lime or other acid‐neutralizing materials. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ + Opportunities that arise Improve agricultural productivity and reduce soil acidification. Cross-cutting relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. addressed Soil acidification and structural deterioration. Improve soil management by increasing water retention Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Improve soil management by increasing water retention to conserve soil moisture. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ + Opportunities that arise Storing water in soil decreases the negative impacts of droughts. relevance YES Agricultural, economic and social positive benefits. Risks addressed Droughts, water stress, etc. Maintain and improve existing aquaculture habitats Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X Description Maintain and improve existing aquaculture habitats, the fish access to spawning, and create new habitats in deep lakes and basins. Option’s relevance Economic Ecologic Social + ++ ++ Opportunities that Enhancing and enabling existing aquaculture habitats. Cross-cutting relevance YES Aquaculture, economic and social positive benefits. addressed Aquaculture loss, etc. Building adaptive capacity Develop climate change trainings for the administrative staff in governmental institutions Relevant to: Agricultural productivity Livestock Natural resources Fisheries & aquaculture Institutional adaptive capacity X X X X X