PAN – Peroxy Acetyl Nitrate PM2.5 – Particulate Matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 micrometers PM10 – Particulate Matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 micrometers RH – Relative Humidity ROG – Reactive Organic Gases RRF – Relative Response Factor RSAC – Reactivity Scientific Advisory Committee SANDWICH – Application of the Sulfate, Adjusted Nitrate, Derived Water, Inferred Carbonaceous Material Balance Approach SAPRC – Statewide Air Pollution Research Center SARMAP – SJVAQS/AUSPEX Regional Modeling Adaptation Project SCAQMD – South Coast Air Quality Management District SIP – State Implementation Plan SJV – San Joaquin Valley – San Joaquin Valley Air Basin (SJVAB) SJVUAPCD – San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District SJVAQS/AUSPEX – San Joaquin Valley Air Quality Study/Atmospheric Utilities Signatures Predictions and Experiments SLAMS – State and Local Air Monitoring Stations SMAQMD – Sacramento Metropolitan Air Quality Management District SMAT – Application of the Speciated Modeled Attainment Test SOA – Secondary Organic Aerosol SOx – Oxides of Sulfur STN – Speciated Trend Network UCD – University of California at Davis U.S. EPA – United States Environmental Protection Agency
Table 3-1. Future attainment year by non-attainment region and NAAQS. 0.08 ppm and 0.075 ppm refer to the 1997 and 2008 8-hour ozone standards, respectively. 15 ug/m3 and 12 ug/m3 refer to the 1997 and 2012 annual PM2.5 standards, respectively. 35 ug/m3 refers to the 2006 24-hour PM2.5 standard, and 1-hr ozone refers to the revoked 1979 0.12 ppm 1-hour ozone standard. Area Year 2031 2026 2025 2024 2023 2021 2020 2019 2017 Southern California Modeling Domain South Coast 0.075 ppm -- -- -- 0.08 ppm 12 µg/m3 -- -- -- Mojave/Coachella -- 0.075 ppm -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.08 ppm Imperial County -- -- -- -- -- 12 µg/m3 -- -- 0.075 ppm Ventura County -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.075 ppm -- -- San Diego -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.075 ppm Northern California Modeling Domain San Joaquin Valley 0.075 ppm -- 112 µg/m3 35 µg/m3 -- 212 µg/m3 15 µg/m3 35 µg/m3 1-hr ozone Sacramento Metropolitan -- 0.075 ppm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Portola-Plumas County -- -- -- -- -- 12 µg/m3 -- -- -- East Kern -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0.075 ppm
average 8-hour ozone is not applicable because observed data do not exist for grid cells in unmonitored areas. Step 4: The future year gridded 8-hr ozone DVs are calculated by multiplying the gradient-adjusted interpolated 8-hr ozone DVs from Step 2 with the gridded RRFs from Step 3 Step 5: The future-year gridded 8-hr ozone DVs (from Step 4) are examined to determine if there are any peak values higher than those at the monitors, which could potentially cause violations of the applicable 8-hr ozone NAAQS. Annual PM2.5 The unmonitored area analysis for the annual PM2.5 standard will include the following steps: Step 1: At each grid cell, the annual average PM2.5 and by species) will be calculated from the future year simulation, and a gradient in the annual averages between each grid cell and grid cells which contain a monitor will be calculated. Step 2: The annual future year speciated PM2.5 design values will be obtained for each design site as described in section 8.4. For each grid cell, the monitors within its Voronoi Region will be identified, and the speciated PM2.5 values are then interpolated normalized inverse distance squared weightings for all monitors within a grid cell’s Voronoi Region. The interpolated speciated PM2.5 fields are then adjusted based on the appropriate gradients from Step 1. Step 3: The concentration of each of the component PM2.5 species are summed to calculate the total PM2.5 concentration (or DV) for each grid cell. Step 4: The future year gridded annual average PM2.5 estimates are then compared to the annual PM2.5 NAAQS to determine compliance. 24-hour PM2.5 The unmonitored area analysis for the 24-hour PM2.5 standard will include the following steps: Step 1: At each grid cell, the quarterly average of the top 10% of the modeled days for 24-hour PM2.5 (total and by species for the same top 10% of days) will
Specific Deliverables to U.S. EPA The following is a list of modeling-related documents that will be provided to the U.S. EPA. The modeling protocol Emissions preparation and results Meteorology Preparation of model inputs performance evaluation Air Quality Preparation of model inputs Model performance evaluation Documentation of corroborative and weight-of-evidence analyses Predicted future year Design Values Access to input data and simulation results REFERENCES Abt, 2014. Modeled Attainment Test Software: User’s Manual. MATS available at: Angevine, W.M., Eddington, L., Durkee, K., Fairall, C., Bianco, L., and Brioude, J., 2012, Meteorological evaluation for CalNex 2010, Monthly Weather Review, 140, Ansari, A.S., and Pandis, S.N., 1998, Response of inorganic PM to precursor concentrations, Environmental Science & Technology, 32, 2706-2714. Appel, K. W., Pouliot, G. A., Simon, H., Sarwar, G., Pye, H. O. T., Napelenok, S. L., Akhtar, F., and Roselle, S. J., 2013, Evaluation of dust and trace metal estimates from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 5.0, Geoscientific Model Development, 6, 883-899, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-883-2013, 2013. Appel, W. K., Gilliland, A.B., Sarwar, G., and Gilliam, R.C., 2007, Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5: Sensitivities impacting model performance: Part I – Ozone, Atmospheric Environment, 41, 9603-9615. W.K., Bhave, P.V., Gilliland, A.B., Sarwar, G., and Roselle, S.J., 2008, Evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model version 4.5: Sensitivities impacting model performance; Part II – Particulate Matter, Atmospheric Environment, 42, 6057-6066.