Table 2: Labour Force Characteristics of Limpopo (‘000 head) Year Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Population of Working Age (15-64 years) 3 082 3 140 3 313 3 378 3 442 3 466 Employed Persons 870 910 962 985 1 092 1 168 Unemployed persons 353 335 196 249 266 238 Not Economically Active 1 859 1 895 2 155 2 144 2 084 2 060 Discouraged Work Seekers 192 219 393 441 330 324 Unemployment Rate (%) 28,9 26,9 16,9 20,2 19,6 16.9 Labour Force Participation Rate (%) 39,7 39,6 35,0 36,5 39,5 40.6 Source: Statistics South Africa; Quarterly Labour Force Surveys Poverty and Inequality Although Provincial population has increased by 12.9% since 1996, Limpopo GDP output (at constant prices) has increased at a faster rate, and theoretically therefore, individuals are better off. This is shown in Table 5 that depicts GDP per capita at 2010 prices. Figure 4: Limpopo GDP-R per Capita (2010 constant prices) Source: IHS Global Insight Regional eXplorer version Poverty and inequality within the population however remain key challenges within the local economy. To indicate this, inequality in income distribution is measured by the Gini coefficient method (if the coefficient is 0 the income distribution is perfect, and if the value is equal to 1, then one person would theoretically receive all income). Figure 5: Gini Co-efficient Trends – Limpopo 1996-2013 Although the downward trend since 2003 is encouraging, the index shows that that there is still skewed distribution of income in the Province. By comparison, South Africa as a whole has the international reputation of having the highest Gini co-efficient in the world (0.63) while the Ukraine the lowest at 0.25. Figure 6: International Gini Indices
Economics growth rate Short term Medium turn Drought; Mineral Commodity outlook. Hard pressed to achieve the SOPA 5% by 2019? Primary economic sector contribution to GDP Mainly due to mining. There will be pressure on the agricultural sector and its environmental resources. Labour force Net increase of at least 45000 per year. - shaped age profile of population Employment Unlikely to grow substantially (mining is capital rather than labour intensive). Could result in heavy pressure on the subsistence sector (food security) and its resources. Wealth disparity (Gini coefficient) (negative) Poverty increase The socio-economic imperatives (although they have improved) are still such that a compromise may be to allow some substitution between different forms of capital, so long as some minimum, core stock of critical natural capital is maintained. The review of state of the economy and associated socio-economic factors in the Province would include the following indicators (as agreed by the LEO Steering Committee) described in Table 4 below. These indicators have been reviewed and prioritised as shown. Table 4: Limpopo Province - Summary of indicators considered for state of the economy No. Indicator Recommended priority Discussion 1 Economic growth – GDP and GGP (Total & by sector) High To measure economic growth and composition of the economy 2 Employment per sector High Important to track employment 3 Contribution to economy from “working for/on” initiatives High The EPWP ends in 2019, therefore effectiveness of the programme should be checked 4 Periodic calculation of economic value of local subsistence economies High Could be increasingly important due to current economic outlook & food security 5 Contribution of natural resources (renewable and non-renewable) to the provincial economy High Estimation of use values (direct, indirect and option values) + estimation of non-use values. This would be useful to prioritise programmes and increase awareness of the value of natural capital. 6 Food production index High Contributes to food security monitoring (important). Should include subsistence sector. 7 Food price index Medium Contributes to food security monitoring