work. These assumptions limit the flexibility offered by the simulation, providing constraints on the number of options available, the settings provided for each option, and the resulting preferences a participant can express. For example, participants were unable to select ‘no biofuel production’ as a setting, since this was not available in the simulation. These limitations need to be considered when interpreting any findings from this research. Table 1 – Possible settings for supply sliders Supply Setting 1 Setting 2 Setting 3 Setting 4 Biofuel production We use bioenergy crops grown in the UK covering an area half the size of Wales We use bioenergy crops grown in the UK covering an area half the size of Wales and an area half the size of Wales overseas We use bioenergy crops covering an area the size of Wales in the UK and another area the size of Wales overseas We use bioenergy covering an area twice the size of Wales and the same again overseas Oil, gas and coal power Fossil fuel supplies increase by more than 25% in 2050 from today, many of which will be imported Fossil fuel supplies in 2050 fall by 25% of supplied today Half as much fossil fuel supplies as in 2050 Fossil fuel supplies in 2050 are only 10% of those supplied today Nuclear power No nuclear power in 2050 Four as much nuclear power as today in 2050, comparable to building 13 large nuclear power stations Nine times as much nuclear power as today in 2050, comparable to building 30 large nuclear power stations Thirteen times as much nuclear power as today in 2050, comparable to building 50 large nuclear power stations coal and gas power No clean coal and gas stations beyond UK demonstration programme. Carbon capture and storage does not work at scale. Around 30 gas and coal stations store their carbon - equivalent to today’s gas and coal stations. Around 45 gas and coal stations filter and store their carbon. Coal and gas industry produces over 50% more power than today. Around 70 gas and coal stations filter and store their carbon underground. Coal and gas industry over double the size of today.
Wind turbines on land No onshore wind turbines in 2050. 8,000 onshore wind turbines built by 2050. In 2010 we had 3,000. 13,000 onshore wind turbines built by 2050. 20,000 onshore wind turbines built by 2050. Wind turbines on sea No offshore wind turbines in 2050. 10,000 offshore wind turbines built by 2050. In 2010 we had 436. 17,000 offshore wind turbines built by 2050. 40,000 offshore wind turbines built by 2050, including some floating turbines. Solar, marine and hydro power No solar, hydro, geo-thermal or marine energy sources used in 2050. 4m2 of panels per person; 8,000 wave machines; small tidal, geothermal and hydroelectric schemes. 6m2 of solar panels per person; 16,000 wave machines; major tidal, geothermal and hydroelectric schemes. 10m2 of solar panels per person; 27,000 wave machines; highly ambitious tidal, geothermal and hydroelectric schemes. All text taken directly from ‘My2050’ (DECC, 2011c) 2 – Possible settings for demand sliders Demand Setting 1 Setting 2 Setting 3 Setting 4 Manufacturing growth UK manufacturing grows strongly, more than doubling in size. International shipping growth triples today’s demand. Manufacturing stays roughly same size as today. International shipping grows with over 150% growth in demand. Manufacturing roughly same size as today. International shipping growth slowed with greater use of IT and services. Manufacturing declines, becoming about a third smaller by 2050. Less demand for shipping traded goods. Business greenness Incremental action to improve energy efficiency. Some energy efficiency measures. Higher electricity demand overall by industry. Good improvements in energy efficiency. Some emissions from heavy industry are filtered and stored underground. Stellar improvements in energy efficiency. Half of emissions from heavy industry are filtered and stored underground. Home efficiency 5% of homes have additional insulation. A quarter of homes have additional insulation. Three quarters of homes have additional insulation. Almost all homes have additional insulation.
Home temperature Increases from today’s 17.5°C to 20°C - following trend from past decades. Increases from today’s 17.5°C to 18°C. Decreases from today’s 17.5°C to 17°C - breaking international trend from past decades. Decreases from 17.5°C to 16°C - time to put jumpers on! Heating fuel Proportion of heat supplied by electricity is small - the same as today. 20% of domestic heat supplied by electricity. About half of domestic heat supplied by electricity. About 90% of domestic heat supplied by electricity. How we travel We continue to use cars as we do today. We use public transport instead of cars for a fifth of our journeys. We use public transport instead of cars for a quarter of our journeys. We our journeys more, and don’t use our cars for of our journeys. Transport fuel Most cars are like those you see today - but more efficient. 3 out of every 5 cars are powered by electricity - 60%. 4 out of every 5 cars are powered by electricity, and some use hydrogen fuel cells. All cars are electric or run on hydrogen. All trains and most buses are electric. All text taken directly from ‘My2050’ (DECC, 2011c) 3.2 Adjustment of data To maintain consistency with DECC’s reports, settings representing increasing effort levels are presented throughout this paper on a scale of Three sliders (‘oil, gas and coal power’, ‘manufacturing growth’ and ‘home temperature’) were presented visually in ‘My2050’ as descending sliders for increasing effort and carbon reduction, since these three conceptually involve reductions. All other sliders ascended for increasing effort and carbon reduction since these involve increasing different technologies, supply options or new behaviours. This was intended to 4.
Figure 9 shows the variance for each slider, giving an indication of the homogeneity of opinion for each issue. ‘Manufacturing growth’, ‘biofuel production’, ‘nuclear power’, ‘clean coal and gas power’ and ‘wind turbines on land’ come out as the issues where preference is most varied (var ≥ 0.9). ‘Home temperature’ and ‘solar, marine and hydro’ also vary strongly (var ≥ 0.85). Figure 9: Variance of slider settings To understand respondents’ overall preferences when comparing across different energy issues, frequency-weighted means were calculated from all setting responses for each slider. This enabled a preference ranking for effort across all sliders as illustrated in Figure 10. This shows the greater preference for demand-side options, in particular for extensive energy efficiency improvements, and home and transport electrification. It is also of note that there are apparent differences in expressed preference with regard to where the burden of action lies. That changing ‘heating fuel’ and ‘transport fuel’ were more popular than changing ‘home temperature’ and ‘how we travel’ suggests a tendency for participants to support wider change across society, rather than actions that they might more closely relate to on a personal level. Figure 10 – Preference ranking for effort: all sliders
To test the relative acceptability of each of the different energy issues, the range of settings for each slider in DECC’s scenarios was compared with the modal pathway. This enabled an issue-specific comparison as set out in Table 5. This showed that the most popular preferences for eleven of the thirteen sliders fall within the range of options proposed by DECC through their three published scenarios. However, for two sliders (‘wind turbines on sea’ and ‘solar, marine and hydro power’), a greater level of effort was selected more frequently than is currently proposed in DECC’s scenarios. 5 – Range of effort settings: a comparison Alignment Supply / demand option Setting range: DECC’s three scenarios setting: ‘My2050’ respondents’ Exact match Manufacturing growth 2 2 ‘My2050’ respondents’ modal choice is within the range for DECC’s three scenarios Modal choice at the lower end of the DECC range Wind turbines on land 2-3 2 Biofuel production 2-4 2 Nuclear power 2-3 2 Heating fuel 3-4 3 Modal choice in the middle of the DECC range Home temperature 2-4 3 How we travel 2-4 3 Transport fuel 2-4 3 Modal choice at the higher end of the DECC range Home efficiency 3-4 4 Business greenness 1-4 4 Clean coal and gas power 1-2 2 ‘My2050’ respondents’ modal choice is for higher effort than DECC’s three scenarios Wind turbines on sea 1-2 3 marine and hydro power 1-2 3 An illustration of the alignment between modal choices in this sample and the range of effort proposed through DECC’s three scenarios is provided in Figure 11.