200 GL of water is assumed to have been purchased before the hypothetical future water year is tested. The results an additional purchase scenario for future water years are very similar to that seen under current volumes of Commonwealth water purchases (Figure 10 compared to Figure 8). Only minor price rises in under all hypothetical water years can be attributed to additional 200 GL of Commonwealth water purchases in the sMDB. Source: Aither 2015. New South Wales Water Register, South Australian Water Register and Victorian Water Register. Based on Commonwealth water purchase data provided to Aither by the Department of the Environment. Figure 10 Estimated allocation price impacts of additional Commonwealth water purchases for hypothetical future water years The impacts (on top of the impact of current Commonwealth water purchases) of additional water purchased by the Commonwealth Government are presented in Table 5. In comparison to the total potential price impact of current Commonwealth water purchases, the added price impact of additional purchases is relatively small – 2 per cent in a repeat of a dry year, 4 per cent in an average year and 6 per cent in a wet year. Table 6 Allocation price impacts of additional Commonwealth water purchases for hypothetical future water year Scenario Modelled price –without purchases ($/ML) Modelled price – with purchases ($/ML) Modelled price – with additional purchases($/ML) Potential price impact additional purchases ($/ML)1 Repeat of extreme dry year (2008-09) $398 $429 $436 $7 Repeat of average year (2005-06) $71 $92 $96 $4 Repeat of wet year (2011-12) $25 $34 $36 $2 Source: Aither 2015. New South Wales Water Register, South Australian Water Register and Victorian Water Register. Based on Commonwealth water purchase data provided to Aither by the Department of the Environment. Note: 1) Please see Appendix B for 95 percent confidence intervals of the potential price impact of purchases.
Appendix B – Sensitivity analysis Table 7 Historical water allocation price impact of Commonwealth water purchases, to 2014-15 – 95 percent confidence limits sensitivity analysis Year Potential impact of purchases ($/ML) – lower Potential price impact of purchases ($/ML) Potential price impact of purchases ($/ML) – upper 2008–09 $1 $1 $1 2009–10 $10 $11 $11 2010–11 $3 $5 $6 2011–12 $5 $8 $11 2012-13 $10 $17 $22 2013-14 $16 $24 $29 2014-15 $18 $24 $27 Source: Aither 2015. New South Wales Water Register, South Australian Water Register and Victorian Water Register. Based on Commonwealth water purchase data provided to Aither by the Department of the Environment. Table 8 Estimated water allocation price impacts of Commonwealth water purchases for hypothetical future water years – 95 percent confidence limits sensitivity analysis Scenario Potential price impact of purchases ($/ML) – lower Potential impact of purchases ($/ML) Potential price impact of purchases ($/ML) – upper Expected 2015-16 $25 $30 $30 Repeat of extreme dry year (2008-09) $23 $31 $35 Repeat of average year (2005-06) $15 $21 $22 Repeat of wet year (2011-12) $5 $9 $12 Source: Aither 2015. New South Wales Water Register, South Australian Water Register and Victorian Water Register. Based on Commonwealth water purchase data provided to Aither by the Department of the Environment.
Table 9 Allocation price impacts of additional Commonwealth water purchases for hypothetical future water year – 95 percent confidence limits sensitivity analysis Scenario Potential price impact of additional purchases ($/ML) – lower Potential price impact of additional purchases ($/ML) Potential price impact of additional purchases ($/ML) – upper Repeat of extreme dry year (2008-09) $5 $7 $7 Repeat of average year (2005-06) $4 $4 $5 Repeat of wet year (2011-12) $1 $2 $3 Source: Aither 2015. New South Wales Water Register, South Australian Water Register and Victorian Water Register. Based on Commonwealth water purchase data provided to Aither by the Department of the Environment.