Risk Region Landscape Explanation Rating 1. Kidepo Valley National Park (KVNP), Pian Upe Wildlife Reserve (WR), Lake Bisina and Lake Opeta Wetlands Systems and Surrounding Communities High Climate change risk is significant and landscape provides high potential for implementing successful model adaptive responses. 2. Lake Mburo Conservation Area (LMCA) and Surrounding Communities High Climate change risk is significant and landscape provides high potential for implementing successful model adaptive responses. 3. Bwindi-Mgahinga Conservation Area (BMCA) and Echuya Central Forest Reserve (ECFR) and Surrounding Communities High Climate change risk is less significant and landscape provides moderate potential for implementing successful adaptive responses that could be usefully applied elsewhere. However, given the uniqueness and fragility of the endemic mountain gorilla population and lack of available habitat into which gorillas could migrate to avoid projected warming, this landscape is rated “high” risk. 4. Rwenzori Mountains National Park (RMNP) and Surrounding Communities Medium Climate change risk is moderately significant and landscape provides lower potential for implementing successful adaptive responses that could be usefully applied elsewhere. 5. Queen Elizabeth and Murchison Falls Protected Areas (QEPA and MFPA), Lake George and Albert Nile Delta Wetlands Systems and Surrounding Communities Medium Climate change risk is not as immediately significant as non-climate stressors, but landscape provides potential for implementing successful adaptive responses that could be replicated elsewhere. KEY FINDINGS
Information Promote weather-based information services for livestock holders to adopt or improve climate-resilient management techniques. Provide accurate weather forecast information to by radio and/or SMS to address increasingly variable weather. X Pilots Undertake climatesensitive watershed management practices. De-silt existing wildlife watering points and establish new, welldistributed watering points to serve areas with high animal concentrations but with little water during the dry season. X Invest in rehabilitation of existing watering points for both wildlife and livestock and promote new watering points to buffer against a more unreliable rainfall pattern. X Invest in rehabilitation and expansion of physical infrastructure and vegetation to enhance flood protection of gardens, houses and other household assets from intense rainfall events. X Landscape 2: Lake Mburo Conservation Area (LMCA) and Surrounding Communities Climate Adaptation Recommendation Type Building Block Specific Action Timeframe Immediate Medium Longer Term Governance Invest in climate-smart protected area management practices. Develop and implement a PA fire management plan to address identified climate riskrelated water scarcity; update the plan as new climate information is available. X Undertake collaborative PA management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. X Information Support landscape inventory monitoring practices that include screening for climatelinked landscape changes. Establish a monitoring system to control invasive species such as Acacia and Lantana whose spread is linked to climate change. X Promote weather-based information services for livestock holders to adopt or improve climate-resilient management techniques. Carry out a resource inventory to collect data on PA resources used by communities to help determine sustainable harvest limits in the face of climate change. X Provide accurate weather forecast information to by radio and/or SMS to address increasingly variable weather. X pastoralists
Pilots Promote investments in mechanisms to buffer against climate-induced drying of wetlands and reduced water sources. Support well-distributed construction of valley dams and other methods of catching rainfall within LMNP to provide wildlife with water resources, given increasingly unreliable rainfall patterns induced by climate change. X Invest in improved watershed management to counter reduced water flows to catchment areas resulting from climate change. Given increasingly unreliable rainfall patterns induced by climate change, restore landscapes especially in the upstream of rivers and wetland catchment areas. Restore river banks and create buffer zones around wetlands, particularly in cultivating communities. X Landscape 3: Rwenzori Mountains National Park (RMNP) and Surrounding Communities Climate Adaptation Recommendation Type Building Block Specific Action Timeframe Immediate Medium Longer Term Governance Invest in social organization (e.g., social capital) to catalyze livelihood diversification where traditional livelihoods are threatened by climate change. As a buffer against livelihood insecurity for households and communities whose primary livelihoods depend on resources adversely impacted by climate change, promote sustainable tourism development as an alternative income source. X Invest in climate-smart protected area management practices. Undertake collaborative PA management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. X Information Support landscape inventory practices that include screening for climate-linked landscape changes. Establish a monitoring system to document the spread (and control) of invasive species that are exploiting climate changes like higher temperatures. X Promote weather-based information services for livestock holders to adopt or improve climate-resilient management techniques. Provide accurate weather forecast information to by radio and/or SMS to address increasingly variable weather. X Pilots Invest in strategies that promote livelihood diversification, especially those related to ecosystem services threatened by climate change. To reduce non-climate stress on flora and fauna experiencing climate stress, promote domestication and on-farm production of those PA resources used most by surrounding communities, in particular, bamboo. X pastoralists
Invest in improved watershed management to counter reduced water flows to catchment areas resulting from climate change. Invest in rehabilitation and expansion of physical infrastructure and vegetation to enhance flood protection of gardens, houses and other household assets from intense rainfall events. X Landscape 4: Bwindi-Mgahinga Conservation Area (BMCA) and Echuya Central Forest Reserve (ECFR) and Surrounding Communities Climate Adaptation Recommendation Type Building Block Specific Action Timeframe Immediate Medium Longer Term Governance Explore design options to establish climate-resilient buffer zones outside of park boundaries and study design options for wildlife corridors. Update sustainable use agreements between PAs and communities that take into account emerging climateinduced fire regimes. X Invest in climate-smart protected area management practices. Undertake collaborative PA management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. X Information Establish monitoring regime to track health of key species adversely impacted by changing climate. Integrate climate screening into existing gorilla health monitoring programs to correlate changes in gorilla health and changing climate. X Promote weather-based information services for livestock holders to adopt or improve climate-resilient management techniques. Provide accurate weather forecast information to by radio and/or SMS to address increasingly variable weather. X Pilots Invest in improved watershed management to counter reduced water flows to catchment areas resulting from climate change. To reduce the adverse impacts of climate change, support payment for ecosystem services with a fund that would benefit improved catchment management and promote water conservation. X Landscape 5: Queen Elizabeth and Murchison Falls Protected Areas (QEPA and MFPA), Lake George and Albert Nile Delta Wetlands Systems And Surrounding Communities Climate Adaptation Recommendation Type Building Block Specific Action Timeframe Immediate Medium Longer Term Governance Develop adaptation plans to promote sustainable use of limited resources in nearby communities adjacent to the PAs. Update sustainable use agreements between PAs and communities that take into account emerging climateinduced fire regimes. X pastoralists
Invest in climate-smart protected area management practices. Undertake collaborative PA management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. X Information Undertake an inventory of invasive plant and animal species (baseline and regular time series monitoring) to determine their climate changeinduced range expansion. Scale up invasive species management measures to control invasive species that are exploiting climate changeinduced variability in temperature and rainfall patterns. X Promote weather-based information services for livestock holders to adopt or improve climate-resilient management techniques. Provide accurate weather forecast information to by radio and/or SMS to address increasingly variable weather. X Pilots Support participatory buffer zone management planning to improve climate resilience in close collaboration with communities. Scale up HWC reduction interventions such as beekeeping along PA boundaries, chili growing and spraying, and planting of unpalatable cash crops (coffee, tea and trees) to counter climate stress on PA resources. X pastoralists
Higher temperatures Droughts (generally between April and June) Severe dry spells and erratic rains (particularly between May and July) management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. Increased spread of woody invasive species. Harrisonia abbysinica, a fire/drought-resistant plant species, is currently colonizing the Narus Valley and other parts of KVNP (KVNP GMP, 2012). Transition of pasture to woody vegetation forces wildlife to move away from water in search of food, and move away from food in search of water. The increased movement raises the risk of poaching. Grazing populations could be compromised due to these stresses. Reduction in the area of mating grounds, such as for Uganda kob, which need large open areas (Onsite Decreased quality of tourism experience and revenue. If wildlife disperses in search of pasture, the Narus Valley, KVNP’s main tourist attraction, may no longer be ideal for game viewing. Increased HWC as a result of wildlife, especially grazers, moving outside the PAs in search of more palatable food. Already antelope commonly raid crops (as do buffalo, elephant and baboon) around KVNP (UWA, 2012). Responses to biodiversity impacts: Support promising invasive species control measures, especially in the Narus Valley. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Identify alternative locations as tourism destinations within the PAs. Support tourism infrastructure development at alternative sites. Scale up the Karenga CWMA planning to cover all subcounties in CWMA and implement the conservancy and other management actions identified in the current management plan for the two subcounties. A second priority site for
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES interview, UWA, August 2016). management planning and conservancy implementation is the Iriri/Amudat CWMA adjoining Pian Upe WR. Scale up measures to control wildlife movement outside the PA (physical boundaries, vegetation boundaries, unpalatable crops, areas in the PA with palatable grasses, etc.). Increased drying of wetlands and other water sources. The Narus Valley may no longer provide dry season water for wildlife. Exacerbated by unsustainable utilization, reduction in breeding and feeding areas for avifauna, fish and wildlife that rely on wetlands. Drying of the wetland complex could degrade or destroy this globally important habitat for migratory birds. Increased HWC, affecting livelihoods of livestock keepers in the surrounding communities and/or pastoralists. Reduction of wetland resources, such as craft materials, thatching, herbal plants, vegetables and other plants used for food in the dry seasons. This could in turn diminish community support for the PAs and for Responses to biodiversity impacts: De-silt existing wildlife watering points in the KVNP to make them functional. Establish new, well-distributed watering points (to serve areas with high animal concentrations but with little water during the dry season, e.g., the northern sector in the KVNP) to keep wildlife inside the PA. re-
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Increased poaching in dry seasons, when pasture and water is scarce outside the PAs. wetland conservation. Reduced livelihood options, especially in the Bisina wetland, due to reduced fish catch. Reduced water and pasture for cattle, threatening cattle survival and cattle herding, the livelihood of the Karamojong people. More frequent clashes between and park management with incursions of into the park to access pasture and water (UWA, 2012). Tensions also often occur between tribes, or even across districts as they compete for water and pasture Construct physical barriers and drainage structures to improve/ increase drainage to wetlands. Promote integrated watershed management approaches Responses to livelihoods impacts: Promote regulated wetlands access and resource use through zoning and enforcement of bylaws, particularly among fishermen and the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities that use the BisinaOpeta wetlands complex. Reduce overstocking and overgrazing. Install automatic weather stations and Provide timely & accurate weather forecast
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES information to pastoralists/agropastoralists by radio and/or SMS. Carry out a resource inventory in the PAs to collect data on salt grass, honey harvesting, firewood, local vegetables and local herbs to determine sustainable harvest limits based on drier conditions. Promote wetland- based, ecologically friendly enterprises that contribute to household incomes while helping to conserve the Bisina-Opeta wetlands. Increased intensity of extreme events Floods, particularly between July and September Increased siltation of wetlands and water sources. Degraded habitat for fish and wildlife. Flooding could somewhat balance the drying, but overall, wetland surface area is expected to shrink (Government of Uganda, 2009, in Mubiru, 2010). Reduced quality and quantity of water for domestic use and for supplying the River Nile. Impacts on croplands that are irrigated from these systems. Reduced fish catch resulting from degraded water quality; would Responses to biodiversity impacts: To control sedimentation: Construct physical barriers Plant vegetation barriers Construct drainage structures Responses to livelihoods impacts:
especially affect livelihoods of fishermen in the Bisina wetland. Adverse impacts for craft makers and other livelihoods dependent on wetland resources. Restore landscapes especially in the upstream of rivers and wetland catchment areas. Restore river banks and create buffer zones around wetlands, particularly in cultivating communities. Improve water harvesting and storage mechanisms for irrigation, domestic use and livestock within communities outside the PAs, including rainwater harvesting, microirrigation schemes and other watersaving technologies to minimize demands on PAs for water. Construct aquaculture ponds. Invest in rehabilitation and expansion of physical infrastructure and vegetation to enhance flood protection of gardens, houses CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES
Table 9. Landscape 2 – Climate Stressors, Climate Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Lake Mburo Conservation Area and Surrounding Communities CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Higher temperatures Droughts Severe dry spells Erratic rains Increased incidence and spread of fires due to hotter, drier conditions. Destruction of vegetation; additionally, regeneration of vegetation will be slower due to the increased length of dry periods. Animal mortality. Relocation of wildlife beyond the PA boundaries, perhaps only temporarily. Reduced pasture for grazers. Decreased quality of tourism experience and revenue. Wildlife could move to more favorable areas to access food and water, which could be across the border to Tanzania, to agricultural fields or to swamps, thus making the LMNP less attractive to tourists. Reduced PA resources for community use. Plant resources that communities rely on and that are found in the PA could be destroyed. As droughts intensify, rainfall patterns change and temperatures increase, the needs of substantial and increasing populations surrounding the conservation area will compel these populations to increase the cutting of trees within the conservation area, accelerate draining of wetlands surrounding the conservation area for conversion to farmland and increase poaching within the conservation area, exacerbating biodiversity impacts noted in the “Direct Impacts to Biodiversity” column. Responses to biodiversity impacts: Integrate PA fire management planning into GMPs to address fire threats. Train PA staff in fire management/ controlled burning. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support tourism infrastructure development at alternative sites, such as at conservancies. Strengthen institutional and technical capacities of conservancies. The African Wildlife Foundation Biodiversity Project has made progress, but continued support is needed for these nascent institutions. Support domestication/onfarm production of resources used by communities.
Higher temperatures Droughts Severe dry spells Erratic rains Update sustainable use agreements between the PA and communities that take into account effects of the new fire regime on PA resources. Undertake collaborative PA management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. Increased spread of invasive species (e.g., Acacia, Lantana camara). Reduced habitat for grazers. The western part of LMNP, which provided habitat for grazers such as zebra, buffalo and eland now has become Acacia forest, and only supports monkeys. This trend would be expected to continue, and the transition may be more rapid with higher temperatures and drier conditions. Increased HWC due to spread of invasive species. Since wildlife is unable to get through Lantana thickets, they may go outside the park in search of easier grazing and watering. This can result in HWC especially since cattle ranchers and farms are now located adjacent to park boundaries. Wildlife eat from farm plots, especially banana, a staple crop in the landscape. At LMNP, with drier conditions, zebra are Response to biodiversity impacts: Support promising invasive species management measures. Support the introduction and reintroduction of certain species, such as giraffe, recently translocated, which browse Acacia. Response to livelihoods impacts: Scale up best measures to
Higher temperatures Droughts Severe dry spells Erratic rains Decreased accessibility of water sources. Lantana camara, a perennial shrub, has spread into LMNP. It forms dense thickets, blocking tracks that animals take down to the lake (the only water source in dry seasons) which is now inaccessible in many areas of the park. Animals instead go outside the park or go to the swamps, where they get stuck in the mud and sometimes die. more often found in ranches, resulting in increased HWC. The typically shy eland, which had never before gone to banana plantations to feed, now are found eating matoke (Onsite interview, August 2016). Disease transmission. When wildlife wander outside PA boundaries, they come into contact with livestock, and disease transmission can result. Wildlife carry ticks and tick-borne diseases that can be transferred to wildlife and treating livestock to kill ticks is expensive. Tick-borne disease in livestock are already a problem for livestock keepers in the surrounding communities, and would be expected to continue and possibly worsen. control wildlife movement outside the PA (removal of Lantana around PA water sources, physical boundaries between the PA and communities at risk, vegetation boundaries, unpalatable crops, revegetating areas in the PA with palatable grasses, etc.). Support district veterinary officers to monitor and manage tick-borne diseases and other diseases transmissible from wildlife to livestock. Disruption of seasonal patterns. Disruption of birth and movement of wildlife, previously attuned to changes in vegetation and the start and end of the rainy and dry
Increased drying of wetlands and other water sources. LMNP and LNRS wetlands may dry up and shrink and Lake Mburo’s water level may drop. Ecosystem services typically provided by healthy, intact wetlands will be adversely affected (water source, flood attenuation, filtering contaminants). More movement of wildlife due to drier conditions. As a dry season coping strategy, many wildlife species in LMNP migrate to Tanzania or undertake more localized movements to swamps. Wildlife is at risk during migration, as well as during shorter Increased human- wildlife conflict due to wildlife movement in search of water. Disease transmission from wildlife to livestock (as a result of wildlife movement). At LNRS, reduced livelihood options for fishermen, craft makers, and other livelihoods Response to biodiversity impacts: Support well- distributed construction of valley dams and other methods of catching rainfall within LMNP to provide wildlife with water resources, especially during the dry season. Continue the buffer zone demarcation CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES
movements; they are more susceptible to poaching and being hit by vehicles, and once outside of LMNP, they may be killed by farmers or livestock keepers. At LMNP, even localized movement is becoming more hazardous since swampy areas are drying, and when animals move toward these water sources, they get stuck in the mud. Unless PA staff rescue them, they die. Overgrazing, diminished food availability and animal mortality as a result of animals converging in smaller areas where water is available. Fish and wildlife that breed, feed and hide along shorelines will be affected if the level of Lake Mburo drops. Catfish dependent on wetland resources. Fewer PA resources for community use. Among other plants used by community members (thatch and material for handicrafts), a plant used to cap milk containers is less common due to drying of wetlands. This is a livelihood and vulnerability issue linked to nutrition. Adverse impacts on quality and quantity of water for domestic use and for croplands that are irrigated from this landscape’s water sources. and protection program that was started in 2013 around LNRS to mitigate lower water levels in the lake. For LNRS, develop and implement more strictly enforced land use planning along with an awarenessraising program on the value of ecosystem services that the lake provides. Evaluate pilot programs and scale up successes that restore fragile riverine ecosystems. A public-private partnership of Ugandan and donor entities in Mbarara District has shown some success. Response to livelihoods impacts: Support construction of valley dams and other water conservation
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES that are most used by communities. Promote regulated wetlands access and resource use through zoning and enforcement of bylaws, particularly among fishermen and the communities that use LNRS. Promote the health and productivity of land outside the PA, including good farming practices, crop-livestock integration (e.g., establishment of field borders and more effective use of manure) and soil and water management. Increased intensity of extreme events Floods Increased silting of wetlands, lakes and rivers. Ecosystem services typically provided by healthy, intact wetlands are being affected (water source, flood attenuation, filtering contaminants). Degraded habitat for fish and wildlife. At LNRS, livelihoods of fishermen, craft makers and others dependent on wetland resources will be adversely affected. Reduced water quality and quantity. Response to biodiversity impacts: To control sedimentation: Construct physical barriers. Plant vegetation barriers. Construct drainage structures.
Table 12. Landscape 3 – Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Rwenzori Mountains National Park (RMNP) and Surrounding Communities CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Higher temperatures Longer dry periods Increased incidence and spread of fires. Fire is a particular threat in the alpine zones and bogs due to drying conditions associated with climate change (Fredric, 2014). Death and/or dispersal of animal life. Animals that are unable to escape will die. Relocation of some wildlife beyond the PA boundaries (perhaps only temporarily). Degradation and possible destruction of vegetation, including the fragile vegetation of the alpine zones and bogs, which provide habitat for several endemics and other species of biodiversity importance. These require significant recovery time. Destruction of ground cover resulting in increased erosion and possibly landslides, which could result in increased siltation Decreased tourism revenue, tourism livelihood options and community support for RMNP. With increased incidence and spread of fires, tourism infrastructure would be at risk; this would affect potential of RMNP (UWA, 2016) and of surrounding communities, as well as community support for RMNP. Reduction of already limited livelihood options. Fewer PA resources for community use. Plant resources used by surrounding communities could be destroyed by fire, and this could decrease community support As droughts intensify, rainfall patterns change and temperatures increase, the needs of substantial and increasing populations surrounding the conservation area will compel these populations to increase the cutting of trees within the conservation area, accelerate draining of wetlands surrounding the conservation area for conversion to farmland and increase poaching within the conservation area, exacerbating biodiversity impacts noted in the “Direct Impacts to Biodiversity” column. Responses to biodiversity impacts: Integrate PA fire management planning into GMPs to address fire threats. Train PA staff in fire management/ controlled burning. Develop and implement a habitat restoration plan with a focus on vegetating/restorin g fragile areas. Install automatic hydro-met monitoring stations for flood and drought early warning systems Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support tourism infrastructure development at alternative, less vulnerable sites. Support alternative tourism activities, such as cultural
Mountains catchment. This would adversely affect downstream habitats, aquatic biodiversity and the wildlife that rely on aquatic species for food. available for communities; Amount of irrigation water available for crops; Hydroelectric power generation; Livelihood options, especially income generation from fisheries; Available protein source for surrounding communities (fish). Projected disappearance of glaciers will impact tourism experience and revenue. The decline in ice cover also makes mountain guiding more treacherous and requires improved mountain safety measures. The projected loss of glacial ice, water flow into rivers and streams. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support payment for ecosystem services with a fund that would benefit improved catchment management and promote water conservation. Support the development and implementation of district land use plans to better manage resources throughout the catchment. Support water conservation and rainwater collection measures. CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES
Nzururu, is highly significant to the traditional belief system of the Bakonzo. Vegetation belts may be shifting. Animal ranges may constrict due to hotter, drier conditions. (Research into the causes of vegetation belt shifts is inconclusive.) Wildlife habitat, especially for species that prefer higher elevations, may shrink as vegetation belts move upslope. As wildlife moves upslope to preferred vegetation, they will move into habitat of other species, which could result in increased competition. Elephants and other mammals may move out of the park in search of preferable habitat, potentially coming into contact with Increased risk of disease transmission if wildlife move outside PA boundaries in response to fire. Increased HWC resulting from wildlife moving outside PA boundaries. According to the RMNP GMP, communities around the park are already experiencing crop damage and loss due to wildlife roaming out of the park. Vervet monkeys, red colobus monkeys, baboons, chimps Responses to biodiversity impacts: Support development of wildlife corridors based on climate change projections of vegetation belt shifts. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support collaborative efforts between health and veterinary sectors, UWA, and the communities to monitor and control zoonotic diseases. Scale up best measures to control wildlife CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES
human settlements. Wildlife that live at higher altitudes would be most affected by this shift. The Rwenzori leopard and the Rwenzori red duiker (only found in the Rwenzoris) are at risk from hotter temperatures since they usually live at altitudes above 3,000 m at colder climates (MWE, 2007, in UNDPUNEP, 2004). Ranges of unique species of chameleons, including the threehorned chameleon, are already at risk. Their range is shifting upwards, possibly as a result of rising temperatures. Areas that support bamboo may be reduced. and blue monkeys are the species most often responsible for crop damage and loss. HWC in communities adjacent to RMNP would further damage relations. Shifting vegetation belts could reduce the types and amount of plant resources used by surrounding communities. movement outside the PA. Update sustainable use agreements between the PA and communities that take into account effects of shifting vegetation belts. Promote domestication and on-farm production of those PA resources used most by surrounding communities, in particular, bamboo. Support alternative tourism activities, such as cultural tourism, birding tourism, adventure tourism and caving. Support training in first aid and other safety precautions for UWA and community tourism enterprises. Strengthen the UWA revenue- CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES increased incidence and spread of fires, creating bare ground) alternate with increased intensity of flood events, significant erosion and landslides could occur. expansion of physical infrastructure and vegetation to enhance flood protection of gardens, houses and other household assets from intense rainfall events. Support tourism infrastructure development at alternative, less vulnerable sites. Support alternative tourism activities, such as cultural tourism, birding, adventure tourism and caving. Construct physical and vegetation barriers to protect tourism infrastructure. Install automatic hydro-met monitoring stations for flood early warning systems.
Table 15. Landscape 4 – Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Bwindi-Mgahinga Conservation Area (BMCA), Echuya Central Forest Reserve (ECFR) and Surrounding Communities CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Higher temperatures Decreased precipitation Longer dry periods Increased incidence and spread of fires due to higher temperatures and less precipitation. Animals unable to escape fires will die; some will be temporarily or permanently relocated beyond the PA boundaries. Destruction of ground cover, resulting in increased erosion and possibly landslides, which could result in increased siltation of streams, rivers and wetlands, including the swamps that hold water yearround, affecting fisheries and other aquatic resources, and the wildlife that rely on these species for food. Fires could destroy whole populations in BMCA and the ECFR, especially those with restricted ranges. Decreased quality of tourism experience, revenue and tourism livelihood options. If mountain gorillas and other wildlife disperse, tourism revenue would decrease, and this would affect livelihoods of local people who rely directly and indirectly on tourism. Fewer PA resources for community use. Plant resources used by surrounding communities could be destroyed by fire, and this could decrease community support for the BMCA and ECFR and Given the extremely small size and unique climatic, topographic and ecological characteristics of the MGNP, encroachment by humans into the park have grave implications for the endangered mountain gorilla. If climate change causes human populations living adjacent to the park to encroach upon the park to extend farming for example, this will put substantial pressure on the gorilla population, forcing gorillas into smaller and potentially unviable habitat within MGNP and/or permanent migration into adjoining protected land in Rwanda. Such encroachment also will exacerbate other biodiversity impacts noted in the “Direct Responses to biodiversity impacts: Integrate PA fire management planning into GMPs to address fire threats, and include PA staff training and realtime fire monitoring in gorilla habitat. Develop and implement a habitat restoration plan with a focus on revegetating/restorin g fragile areas. To raise revenue for the PA system, support gorilla habituation and diversify the tourism products of BMCA to be compatible with the potential impacts of climate change. Integrate climate screening into
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Decreased precipitation Longer dry periods management for communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. Reduced water in wetlands, rivers and streams. Wetlands may dry up and rivers and streams will have lower flow. Adverse effects on aquatic life that relies on these resources. Impacts on wildlife whose diet comprises aquatic resources. Shift in bamboo cover and bamboo die-back in ECFR linked to an increase in temperature and lower water table. Reduced water flow in the catchment, which would affect: Quality and quantity of potable water available for communities Amount of irrigation water available for crops Hydroelectric power generation Livelihood options, especially income generation from fisheries Available protein source for surrounding communities (fish resources) Water provision projects, current and future, could be at risk due to Responses to biodiversity impacts: Construct physical drainage structures and revegetate/restore habitat to control water flow into rivers and streams. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support payment for ecosystem services with a fund that would benefit improved catchment management and promote water conservation. Support the development and implementation of district land use/watershed management plans to better manage resources throughout the catchment. Construct physical and vegetation
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES reduced water in the catchment. This could affect PA relations with surrounding communities. Reduced livelihood options. In addition to losing income generation from tourism, communities dependent on fisheries resources, particularly the already marginalized Batwa, could be further affected due to reduced flow in this landscape’s waters. If mountain gorillas and other wildlife move outside PA boundaries in search of water, increased HWC is likely. barriers to control erosion and sedimentation of streams and rivers. Support environmentally sound alternative livelihood options, such as fish farming and community tourism activities. Support measures to mitigate HWC, such as construction of live or electric fences, creation of crop protection groups (human-gorilla conflict resolution), planting of more palatable food in the BMCA, creating a buffer zone managed by the park and communities that discourages crossing to farmers’ fields and also benefits the community by planting subsistence and cash crops that are
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES unpalatable to gorillas. A large upward displacement of species ranges and vegetation zones of approximately 600–700 m relative to 1990 levels. Sensitive species will try to migrate toward available and preferable habitat and food sources, and if unable to adapt, they may die. An increase in temperature and lower water table is linked to a shift in bamboo cover and bamboo die-back in Echuya Forest. Shift of the bamboo belt and bamboo die back are likely to increase in ECFR and to be seen in BMCA as well. Disease transmission is expected to increase due to animals moving outside PA boundaries in search of preferred habitat. HWC is expected to increase due to shifts in species ranges and vegetation zones (in part attributed to climate change). Fewer PA resources for community use. Plant resources such as Smilax anceps (enshuli) from BMCA used for craft making are likely to be adversely affected by shifting vegetation belts. Bamboo, with its many uses, many of which are only now becoming known and popular, will also Responses to biodiversity impacts: Support development of wildlife corridors based on climate change projections of vegetation belt shifts. Responses to livelihoods impacts: To raise revenue for the PA system, support gorilla habituation and tourism diversification to strengthen and diversify the tourism products of BMCA compatible with the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity resources. Support efforts to address disease transmission. Support efforts to manage HWC. Promote domestication and
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES be adversely affected by shifting vegetation zones. Fewer resources for community use could decrease community support for BMCA and ECFR and increase conflict between the PAs and communities. on-farm production of those PA resources used most by surrounding communities, in particular, bamboo. On-farm production of bamboo would minimize incursions into BMCA and ECFR to harvest already stressed bamboo resources. Increased disease incidence. Increased gorilla (and possibly other animals) morbidity and mortality. (Onsite interview, August 2016.) With increased disease incidence in wildlife, mountain gorillas in particular, disease transmission from gorillas to people is more likely to occur. Responses to biodiversity impacts: Support UWA to monitor disease incidence in mountain gorilla populations and community animal health workers to monitor and treat zoonotic diseases in communities to minimize potential for transmission. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support efforts to address disease transmission (see above).
Table 18. Landscape 5 – Climate Stressors, Risks, Impacts and Potential Adaptive Responses for Queen Elizabeth Protected Area (QEPA), Murchison Falls Protected Area (MFPA) and Surrounding Communities CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Higher temperatures Decreased precipitation Longer dry periods Increased incidence and spread of fires. Fire will directly affect wildlife by killing animals that are unable to escape and by destroying habitat, especially of species with highly specific niches. While most grazers, such as Uganda kob, thrive when fire stimulates new grass shoots for grazing, drier and hotter conditions would mean that vegetation will take longer to return and bare ground will remain for longer periods, adversely affecting grazers. Decreased revenue and quality of tourism experience due to increased dispersal of wildlife and decreased number of animals within the PAs. Fewer PA resources for community use. PA resources could be destroyed due to increased incidence and spread of fires; communities that rely on these resources will be affected; and community support for the PAs could decrease. As droughts intensify, rainfall patterns change and temperatures increase, undercutting traditional pastoralist, fishing and farming livelihoods practiced, populations will be compelled to accelerate draining of wetlands and cutting of trees, both adjacent to PAs and to encroach on the PAs themselves, exacerbating biodiversity impacts noted in the “Direct Impacts to Biodiversity” column. Responses to biodiversity impacts: Integrate PA fire management planning into GMPs to address fire threats. Train PA staff in fire management/ controlled burning. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Support tourism infrastructure development at alternative locations, where wildlife congregates. Support domestication/onfarm production of resources used by communities. Update sustainable use agreements between the PAs and communities that take into account effects of the new fire regime on PA resources. Undertake collaborative PA management for
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES communities to access resources like water, pasture, fruits and honey during climate shocks. Spread of invasive species due to hotter, drier conditions that favor colonization by invasive species, mainly bush and woodland encroachment into savanna habitats. Reduction of palatable rangeland, with impacts on wildlife ecology and population dynamics. Invasive species include: Lantana camara, an invasive species that displaces grassland and is resilient to dry conditions; Imperata cylindrica, which germinates quickly after fire and flowers early to seed the soil, and for which older plants are unpalatable to grazers; and Increased HWC. Although many HWC incidents in QEPA and MFPA are from reasons other than climate change (see NonClimate Stressors), the spread of invasive species is transforming savanna habitat to bush and woodland, causing wildlife, especially grazers, to move outside PA boundaries to find palatable food (USAID, 2015). Increased disease transmission. Livestock numbers in the communities around QEPA and in the fishing villages have been increasing. If wildlife moves outside PA Responses to biodiversity impacts: Scale up promising invasive species management measures. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Scale up promising HWC management interventions such as beekeeping along PA boundaries, chili growing and spraying, and unpalatable cash crops (coffee, tea and trees). Support key wildlife corridors around QEPA and MFNP. This would involve re-establishing wildlife corridors and initiating collaborative partnerships with the private sector
exacerbate asthma and associated allergies. Higher temperatures Decreased precipitation Longer dry periods Higher temperatures Decreased precipitation Longer dry periods Reduced water in wetlands, rivers, and streams. Increased hippopotamus deaths in QEPA and MFPA. Decreased population numbers of sitatunga, an endangered antelope that lives in papyrus wetlands. Decreased populations of birds dependent on these habitats, such as the shoebill stork. Reduced health and increased mortality of crocodile populations in these PAs, already shown during extended dry periods. Animal mortality or relocation outside of PA boundaries due to water shortages. Decreased revenue and quality of tourism experience. QEPA and MFPA wetlands, lakes and river habitats are some of the most popular tourist destinations in the PAs and these could be at risk if water levels are reduced. This would affect income generation for UWA, as well as opportunities for people in surrounding communities, where communitybased tourism developments rely on wetland, river and lake tours. Fishermen, including those who live in QEPA and adjacent areas and fishing communities around Lake Albert and River Nile in Responses to biodiversity impacts: Construct watering points in priority sites (areas widely used by wildlife but without a permanent source of water, or a source that dries up during dry conditions), including Bugungu WR and northern bank-Tebito areas in MFNP to minimize wildlife movement outside the reserve and the park during the dry season. Re-vegetate buffer areas of wetlands and construct drainage structures to improve water flow and retention in wetlands. Responses to livelihoods impacts: Identify and support alternative tourism
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES Reduced overall breeding and nursery sites for some fish species; may affect the overall productivity of the landscape’s lakes (Water Resource Assessment for River Mpanga, 2009, in DWRM, 2011). Falling lake levels will also affect the area covered by wetlands, which serve as a refuge for juvenile and adult fishes, including species such as the lungfish (P. aethiopicus). Health and distribution of fish and other aquatic life in rivers in the landscape may be adversely affected by reduced runoff. Fish that breed within certain temperature MFPA, may experience a reduction in fishery yields, and the fishery may be unable to support the current number of fishermen. Reduced water quality and quantity. Communities around MFPA and QEPA rely on water from the PAs for domestic, livestock and agricultural use. Receding water levels in the lakes and water flows in the rivers, including the River Nile, will affect water quality, particularly on the shorelines and river mouths, such as the Murchison Nile Delta (DWRM, 2013). Fewer PA resources for community use. destinations and activities. Promote livelihoods other than fishing that are environmentally sound, such as domestication of medicinal and cultural plants, establishment of woodlots to recover degraded areas while providing wood products, fish farming, beekeeping, highvalue horticultural crops, poultry and production of energy-saving stoves. Support water conservation and harvesting systems, such as construction of valley dams and rainwater collection tanks in the communities
CLIMATE STRESSORS CLIMATE RISKS DIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY INDIRECT IMPACTS TO LIVELIHOODS FROM BIODIVERSITY IMPACTS INDIRECT IMPACTS TO BIODIVERSITY FROM LIVELIHOOD IMPACTS POTENTIAL ADAPTIVE RESPONSES thresholds may be affected. Cultural and medicinal wetlandbased resources could be adversely affected. Plant resources, such as ambatch, that grow on shorelines of lakes and artisanal salt mining on Lake Katwe are at risk with decreased flow of water in wetlands, rivers and lakes. Increased HWC. With decreased water flow in wetlands and lakes, crocodile and hippo attacks may increase as they move in search of areas with water. Species moving closer to human settlements, where they are killed or chased, result in conflict between PAs and the communities and calls to remove the areas’ protected status. surrounding the PAs. Support domestication/onfarm production of resources used by communities. Update sustainable use agreements between the PA and communities that take into account effects of reduced water in wetlands, rivers and lakes. Scale up best measures to control wildlife movement outside the PA, such as fencing water points where communities fetch water.