———. 2008c. World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development. Washington, DC. World Bank. 2008d. The Little Green Data Book. Washington, DC. ———. 2009a. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC. ———. 2009b. The Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods and Estimates. Global Report of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study. Consultation Draft. Washington, DC. ———. 2009c. Development and Climate Change: Strategic Directions for EAP Sustainable Development in East Asia and Pacific. Powerpoint presentation, Accessed 19 November. ———. 2009d. The Little Green Data Book. Washington, DC. ———. 2010a. Sovereign Financial Protection against Natural Disasters: Options for Government of Vietnam. Unpublished draft. Hanoi. ———. 2010b. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Country Sector Studies. Draft sector studies for agriculture and water, forestry, aquaculture, ports, and social vulnerability. To be completed in late 2010. ———. 2010c. Expanding Opportunities for Energy Efficiency. Washington, DC. ———. 2010d. Vietnam Power Sector: Generation Options. Study under preparation. ———. 2010e. Winds of Change. East Asia and Pacific Region Flagship Report. Washington, DC. ———. 2010f. Beyond the Sum of Its Parts: Blending Financial Instruments to Support Development. Washington, DC. ———. 2010g. Monitoring Climate Finance and ODA. Draft. Washington, DC. ———. 2010h. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: Social Synthesis Report. Draft. May. Washington, DC. ———. 2010i. Vietnam Development Report 2011: Natural Resources Management. Joint Development Prtner Report to the Vietnam Consultative Group Meeting, Hanoi, December 7-8. ———. 2010j. Vietnam Gas Sector Development Framework. Energy Sector Management Assistance Programme, Washington, DC. World Bank and DHI. 2009. Hydraulic Modeling Studies Related to Vietnam Coastal Cities Environmental Sanitation Project (CCESP). Final Report prepared by DHI Group and Vietnam Water Sanitation and Environment JS Company.
Water resources Almost all sectors of the economy are dependent on, and vulnerable to, water resource changes; water control structures preponderantly occur in vulnerable areas Water resources will be affected by precipitation and temperature changes and by SLR; dikes are an adaptation measure but also subject themselves to impacts from SLR and storm surges; changes in river flow could affect water quality; water resource management will become more challenging Improvements in water resource management, needed in any event, will address many of the emerging CC impacts on water resources; specific investments (mostly should be long-term) will include dikes and other water control structures, salinization controls, and water storage (reservoirs) Coastal Wetlands Protection and Development Project (P042568); Vietnam Water Supply Development (P073763); Water Resources Assistance Project (P065898); EACC study on agriculture and water (P114750); Mekong Water Resources for Rural Development Project (P113491); Red River Delta Rural Water Supply and Sanitation, Program APC, 2nd Phase ( P105137); further analytical work on CC and WRM to be supported possibly under DFID TF; GFDRR Hydropower resources Hydropower accounted for 39% of power generation in 2009 (expected to fall to 22% by 2025); power generation is a function both of total water and seasonality of flow Changes in hydrological patterns are expected to generally increase water availability in dam reservoirs, a potentially positive impact (could decrease in some areas); impacts of seasonal changes in water availability are uncertain; greater flooding events could threaten some dam structures Better modeling and CC scenarios needed before specific adaptation investments or measures can be implemented See publication from World Bank’s Development Research Group: Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects: Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam (Iimi 2007) Forests (upland) Forests are vulnerable to climatic shifts; forest-dependent human populations tend to be quite poor and vulnerable Changes in climate could affect growth rates, forest fires, disease patterns Measures to better manage forests, which in any event are critically needed in Vietnam (see under REDD), could be instrumental to adapt to new challenges of CC Forestry Sector Development Project (P066051); EACC study on forestry (P114750); Forest Sector Development Project (P074414) Forests Any losses (or Mangroves could be Mangroves themselves are also Coastal Wetlands Protection and Development
(mangroves) additions) affect many coastal poor populations vulnerable to major impacts from SLR and storm damage but note that mangroves are already storm-adapted and highly adaptable coastal ecosystems important adaptation measures to SLR and sea surges Project (P042568); mangroves could possibly be supported under Mekong Water Resources for Rural Development Project (P113949); see also forthcoming engagement on REDD Terrestrial biodiversity Ecosystems will not be able to respond to speed of CC; highly vulnerable because of current fragmentation of natural ecosystems; large numbers of rural poor dependent on natural ecosystems Impacts on natural ecosystems and biodiversity arising from rapid climate shifts; impacts on forestry; changes in temperature and hydrological patterns might affect stocks of freshwater fisheries Green Corridor Project (P059144); Integrating Watershed and Biodiversity Management in Chu Yang Sin National Park (P068249); EACC study forestry (P114750); VDR 2011 (P118764) focused on natural resource management, addressing as appropriate CC issues; planned studies on terrestrial environmental services under DFID partnership; Marine biodiversity and fisheries Coastal ecosystems vital to survival of millions of poor fishers and important for tourism industry; many unknowns about nature of impacts and vulnerability of marine fisheries sector Coastal marine areas and coral areas subject to potentially large impacts from storms, SLR, acidification of coastal waters; stock distribution of marine fisheries could change dramatically with changes in marine environment; more-intense and more-frequent storms; impacts on corals and marine environments Hon Mun Marine Protected Areas Project (GEF) (PP067804); Coastal Resources for Sustainable Development Project (P118979)
ASSETS Urban and coastal cities Cities are the economic heart of Vietnam and where most of the population lives; coastal cities are extremely vulnerable to SLR and storm surges Subject to more damage from floods, storms; localized issues with water supply Urban plans will need to be far more flexible and resilient to take into account all the likely impacts of CC on cities; must be adapted to greater flow variability from flooding episodes or storm damage; many specific kinds of investments such as water control structures, protection of parklands and buffer zones; specialized risk financing instruments Coastal Cities Environmental Sanitation (P082295); Ho Chi Minh City Environmental Sanitation Project (P052037); Vietnam Urban Upgrading Project (P070197) and Additional Finance (P115897); Coastal Cities Environmental Sanitation Project (P082295); and many other urban investment projects; Climate Resilient Cities Primer (P110591); WBI work on incorporation of CC into planning; study on impacts of CC on drainage systems in coastal cities (GFDRR-funded; P114603); GEF – Coastal Cities project (P090374); Second Vietnam Urban Upgrading Project (P113904); Vietnam Medium Cities Development Project (P116398) Roads and railways (coastal) Transportation infrastructure in areas now subject to coastal flooding will be particularly vulnerable All roads subject to more flood damage; coastal transport infrastructure also exposed to storm damage, SLR; likely impacts mostly unknown Some changes may be needed in the way transport infrastructure is built (but need to take into account limited lifetime of such investments); careful attention needed to siting of infrastructure For the World Bank’s large portfolio of transport projects, there is an increased awareness of the need to include climate change considerations in investment design and long-range planning. However, the extent to which this is being done is limited by the availability of sufficiently detailed data on the specific impacts on infrastructure during its economic life Ports Critical economic importance and, by their location, inherently vulnerable to SRL and coastal Impacts currently unknown but WB study under way; could be incrementally subject to storm damage, SLR, flooding and impacts World Bank study pending EACC study on adaptation and ports (P114750)
storms on infrastructure Coastal tourism areas Vulnerable because of coastal location; quite high economic importance in many areas Impacts possible from SLR (physical loss of beaches, seaside areas), storms; no study known has evaluated these impacts No study in Vietnam has evaluated possible adaptation measures in the tourism sector World Bank has no investments in the tourism sector in Vietnam HUMAN ASSETS Health changes Degree of vulnerability largely unknown Vector densities and distributions could theoretically change, causing differences in patterns of malaria, dengue, etc.; such impacts are largely unknown but not yet demonstrated that disease patterns will significantly change No specific adaptation measures seem justified in the short term other than continued strengthening of health care systems related to vector-borne diseases World Bank has a large portfolio of health projects that provide support to the general strengthening of Vietnam’s health system Vulnerable social groups Vulnerable groups (the poor, women, ethnic minorities) may be disproportionately affected by CC and will be inherently less able to adapt Possibly could result in wider poverty gaps or a cycle of increasing vulnerability At least in the short term, the best adaption measures would seem to be those focused in any event on reducing vulnerabilities of targeted social groups (capacity building, safety nets, etc.) EACC Study on social vulnerability (P114750)
COMBINED ASSET CATEGORIES Assets vulnerable to natural disasters The communities most affected by natural disasters are often already among the poorest and most vulnerable in Vietnam Some types of natural disasters can expect under CC to increase in intensity and frequency (particularly coastal storms, flooding events, possibly droughts in some areas); potential incremental impacts of CC are important Most critical is strengthening of existing disaster risk reduction and natural disaster risk mitigation strategies Natural Disaster Risk Management (P073361); NDRMP Additional Financing (P119684); Evidence-based natural disaster risk management (P102378); Mekong Transport and Flood Protection Project (P042927) and Additional Finance (P105120); further analytical work to be done on sovereign financial protection against natural disasters through use of financial tools such as risk reduction infrastructure, contingent credit, CAT DDO insurance; Managing Natural Hazards Project (P118783); Natural Disaster Risk Management Project Additional Finance (P119684); and FY11 planned GFDRR program APPENDIX 2. SELECTED MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES IN VIETNAM Intervention and Theoretical Emission Reduction Feasible Medium-Term (2015) Reduction Potential Public Co-benefits Financial Profitability Major Barriers WB Studies/Projects POWER GENERATION
due to lack of familiarity with technology Recovery and use of gas from oil fields (2.0 MtCO2e/yr) Recovery of associated gas from the seven available oil fields and use for power generation or heating (2.0 MtCO2e/yr) Increased energy supply; improved safety at oil fields Found to be profitable with CDM benefits in one project in Vietnam Financial: Financial attractiveness of such and investment and common practice are key barriers Gas study (see references in energy section) Coal bed methane recovery from underground coal mines (2.5 MtCO2e/yr) Recovery and utilization of methane gas from coal mines: 20% of underground coal mines in country (0.50 MtCO2e/yr) Increased energy supply; improved safety at oil fields Shown to be profitable internationally, but never tried in Vietnam Technical: Not a proven technology in Vietnam and lack of experience in design Subcritical energy efficiency improvements in old coal-fired power plants (4.2MtCO2e/yr) Energy efficiency improvement in the three largest pre-2001 coal plants by applying subcritical technology (2.7 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Typically profitable but less so than for new plants Technical: Lack of familiarity with regard to the energy-efficient technologies in old plants Financial: Investment costs of retrofitting plants are high; there are differing opinions as to whether or not this mitigation option is viable at this time Supercritical energy efficiency improvements in new coal-fired power plants (19.0 MtCO2e/yr) Adoption of supercritical boilers in 50% of new power plants constructed from 2010 to 2015 (9.5 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Profitable in other countries but never tried in Vietnam Technical: Supercritical boilers are new technologies to Vietnam Financial: Upfront investment costs are high
Subcritical energy efficiency improvements in new coal-fired power plants (10.9 MtCO2e/yr) Adoption of energy-efficient subcritical technologies in 50% of new coal-fired power plants constructed from 2010 to 2015 (5.4 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Profitable in other countries but never tried in Vietnam Technical: Lack of familiarity with regard to the energy-efficient technologies in old plants Financial: Upfront investment costs are high INDUSTRY Fuel switching in cement industry (1.5 MtCO2e/yr) Applying fuel switching in cement factories of VICEM (0.65 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Found to be profitable with CDM in other countries Technical: Logistics of gathering source material; familiarity and confidence in technology Blending of cement (1.25 MtCO2e/yr) Increased blending of cement for cement factories of VICEM (0.5 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Found to be profitable in other countries Technical: Awareness of implications of cement blending on product Financial: Uncertainties that more blended cement can sustain a market in Vietnam Recovery of waste heat in cement industry (1.0 MtCO2e/yr) Recovery of waste heat in cement factories of VICEM for power generation (0.4 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Found to be profitable in Vietnam with CDM benefits Technical: Complications with the dust and temperature of the exit gases and lack of experience in operation Financial: Involves higher investment costs Energy efficiency in cement industry (5.1MtCO2e/yr) Energy efficiency improvement for plants of VICEM (2.1 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand For older industrial plants, there are selective cost-effective and profitable interventions available in each subsector; for new industrial plants, energy-efficient Technical: Awareness of technologies and their benefits among managers Regulatory: Regulatory incentives need to be implemented Financing: Sources of financing for these types
technology is profitable in the long term but requires higher upfront costs of investments are limited in some cases Energy efficiency in brick industry (1.9 MtCO2e/yr) Replacement of traditional kilns with vertical shaft brick kiln for 40% of traditional kilns (0.8 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Investments in vertical shaft brick kilns have been shown to be profitable in Vietnam Technical: Awareness of the technology and its availability are the major barriers to its adoption Recovery of waste heat in iron and steel industry (0.56 MtCO2e/yr) Recovery of waste heat in iron and steel factories belonging to VSC for power generation or heating (0.2 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Typically profitable with CDM Technical: Familiarity with technology Financial: High upfront investment costs Energy efficiency in iron and steel (1.0 MtCO2e/yr) Improving energy efficiency in iron and steel plants belonging to VSC (0.4 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Typically profitable with CDM Technical: Awareness of technologies and their benefits among managers Regulatory: Regulatory incentives need to be implemented Financing: Sources of financing for these types of investments are limited in some cases Cogeneration in pulp and paper industry (0.84 tCO2e/yr) Cogeneration in pulp and paper plants belonging to Vinapimex (0.45 tCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Studies have shown this is profitable (IRR between 15% and 30%) in pulp and paper industries in Vietnam Technical: Awareness of technology and its operation Financial: High costs of equipment
FORESTRY Mangrove reforestation (5.3 MtCO2e/yr) Reforestation of 22,000 ha of mangrove forest (1.2 MtCO2e/yr) Improved biodiversity; improved fisheries; disaster risk management Not profitable Social: Demand for land in coastal areas Financial: Availability of financing Regulatory: Enforcement of conservation Vietnam Coastal Wetlands Project (P065898) supported mangrove planting; analytical work to be done under DFID Partnership; mangrove management could be potentially supported under projects in preparation: Mekong Water Resources for Rural Development Project (P101690) REDD interventions (10.5 MtCO2e/yr) Reduce primary forest loss by 20% of 2000–05 rate (2.1 MtCO2e/yr) Improved biodiversity; forest product livelihoods Not profitable Social: Pressures on forest resources Financial: Availability of financing Regulatory: Enforcement of conservation Forest Sector Development Project (P066051); REDD FCPF implementation support (P119983); great wealth of analytical work in this area has been done by the Bank; GEF Sustainable Forest land Management (P112661) TRANSPORT Introduction of electric motorcycles (5.9 MtCO2e/yr) 100% introduction of electric motorcycles in five major cities (HCMC, Hanoi, Hai Phong, Da Nang and Can Tho) (2.3 MtCO2e/yr) Air quality improvement Typically involves costs for consumers and government; financials not fully analyzed for Vietnam Regulatory: Both standard for electric motor cycles and regulatory control on the use of motorcycles are key driving factors Market: A large enough demand is necessary to increase demand
Biofuel E20 (20% ethanol gasoline) in vehicles (2.6 MtCO2e/yr) Introduction of E20 to substitute for gasoline used nationally using the planned production capacity for bioethanol (equivalent of 1% of gasoline supply) (0.1 MtCO2e/yr) Air quality improvement for some parameters; diversification of agricultural products and employment Not profitable or marginal typically but in rare instances has been profitable internationally; typically needs government support through regulation or subsidies; not undertaken in Vietnam Regulatory: Program normally necessitates mandatory blends or other government fuel price control Technology: Introduction of technology and increase in processing capacity is needed Modal shift from road to inland waterway freight (2.2 tCO2e/yr) Shift of 10% of road freight traffic to inland waterways through improved waterways, infrastructure, and other incentives (0.22 tCO2e/yr) Improved air pollution; trade facilitation; road safety improvement The Bank has found these investments to be highly viable Technical: Lack of infrastructure including logistics and intermodal linkages Financial: Underinvestment in waterways as a mode of transport Bank supports a number of projects that finance inland waterways, such as Inland Waterways and Port Rehabilitation Project (P004843) Modal shift from road to rail freight (2.6 tCO2e/yr) Shift of 10% of road freight traffic to railways through improved infrastructure (0.26 tCO2e/yr) Improved air pollution; trade facilitation; road safety improvement Commonly marginal or not profitable in Vietnam but may be profitable for some lines Technical: Lack of infrastructure including logistics and intermodal linkages Financial: Requires large infrastructure investments Modal shift from road to coastal freight (0.8 MtCO2e/yr) Shift of 10% road freight traffic to coastal shipping using larger capacity vessels and improved infrastructure (0.08 MtCO2e/yr) Improved air pollution; trade facilitation; road safety improvement Initial estimates indicate it may be profitable in Vietnam Technical: Lack of infrastructure including logistics and intermodal linkages Financial: Underinvestment in coastal shipping as a mode of transport Bank supports a number of projects that finance inland waterways, such as Mekong Delta Transport Infrastructure Development Project (P083588)
Bus Rapid Transit in five major cities (0.57 tCO2e/yr) City program for construction of BRT system for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh to replace 30% of motorcycles and 30% cars in the city (0.53 tCO2-e/yr) Improved air pollution; trade facilitation; road safety improvement Involves large investments that are typically marginal or not profitable; not undertaken in Vietnam Institutional: Fragmented planning process Financial: Financing for urban transport infrastructure is below targets Hanoi Urban Transport Project (GEF) (P083593); possible support to BRT in Danang Passenger vehicle fuel efficiency standards (3.7 MtCO2e/yr) EU standards (from five years ago) met in HCMC and Hanoi (2.0 MtCO2e/yr) Improved air pollution At the consumer level can be profitable expenditures with limited fuel subsidies and high fuel prices; costs associated with financial incentives for retiring old low energy fleets and enforcing energy efficiency standards Regulatory: Fuel efficiency standards are not in place WASTE Low technologies in urban wastewater (1.32 MtCO2e/yr) Increasing centralized wastewater treatment to 50% with aerobic sludge treatment; land farming of 100% sludge from centralized wastewater treatment plants; desludging and aerobic treatment of 50% of septic tanks for five major cities (0.3MtCO2e/yr) Improved water quality and sanitation Can be profitable with right institutions Many WB projects finance urban wastewater treatment and some are piloting low methane technologies
Low technologies in rural wastewater (1.73 MtCO2e/yr) Rural domestic wastewater: Methane avoidance through switching 25% of septic tanks to aerobic sanitation and 25% adoption of aerobic sanitation systems for those without sanitation (0.45 MtCO2e/yr) Improved water quality and sanitation Not profitable Technical: Awareness of technologies are limited Financial: Rural customers are cash-limited Many WB projects finance rural wastewater treatment and some are piloting low methane technologies Low industrial wastewater systems (3.30 MtCO2e/yr) Industrial wastewater: Methane recovery (biogas) and avoidance (aerobic systems) for 75% wastewater of bioethanol, meat & poultry, pulp & paper, liquor & beer, tapioca starch, and fishing processing industries (1.6 MtCO2e/yr) Improved water quality Systems have been found to be profitable with CDM in Vietnam Technical: Technology is more sophisticated than traditional technologies Financing: Is considered a risky investment and are barriers to obtaining commercial financing The Bank’s analytical work on industrial pollution has looked at all issues involved in treatment of industrial wastewater. Reduced methane emissions should be one result of forthcoming Vietnam Industrial Pollution Control Project (P113151). Composting (4.7 MtCO2e/yr) Methane avoidance through solid waste composting in eight cities (Hanoi; Nam Dinh; Quy Nhon; Vung Tau; Vinh; Lao Cai; Phu Lay) (0.9 MtCO2e/yr) Reduced waste in disposal site and subsequent reduction in water pollution Not profitable or marginal with CDM Landfill gas to energy (2.3 MtCO2e/yr) Methane recovery through landfill gas to energy projects in urban disposal sites for eight cities (HCMS; Hanoi; Hai Phong; Can Tho; Da Nang; Ha Long; Nha Trang; Nam Dinh) (1.9 MtCO2e/yr) Reduced odor and improved safety near landfill sites Typically profitable with CDM Many Bank projects finance landfills for municipal waste and some are piloting low methane technologies; PCF Landfill Gas (P082320)
OTHER ENERGY EFFICIENCY Improved transmission and distribution (3.1 MtCO2e/yr) Deployment of AC3 and smarter grid technology in 500 KV lines, reducing losses by 3.6 percent (0.15 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand Profitable- Deployment of 1000 km of AC3 lines costs $900 million and can result in cost savings of $228 million per year and the equivalent avoided generation capacity of 814 MW, represents an avoided cost of $1 billion; smart grid technologies are expected to be profitable but have high upfront costs and uncertainty over benefits Technical: Uncertainty about the costs and benefits and perceptions of rick to the availability of the transmission system Financial: High upfront costs System Efficiency Improvement, Equitization and Renewables (SEIER) (P066396); SEIER GEF component (P073778); Demand-side Management and Energy Efficiency Project (P105834) and GEF component (P071019); Transmission and Distribution Project (P084871); System Efficiency Improvement, Equitization and Renewables (SEIER) Additional Finance (P120540); Transmission and Distribution Additional Financing (P114875), Planned CTF-financed component under Transmission and Distribution Additional Financing (P114875) will finance smart grids; Energy Efficiency Project (P114065).
Energy-efficient appliances, potential of 6.7% improvement (0.95 MtCO2e/yr) Energy-efficient appliances improvement, by 0.9%. (0.13 MtCO2e/yr) Decreased energy demand In longer is financially profitable and can be driven by market forces; shorter terms issues of initiating the transformation may necessitate costs related to subsidies for adoption and awareness programs Technical: Awareness of manufacturers, distributors, and consumers of energy efficient technologies and benefits Financial: Higher upfront costs of appliances Planned GEF Project on Energy Efficiency of Household Appliances (P116846) INDUSTRIAL GASES Reduction of GHGs that are also substances subject to Montreal Protocol phase-out. No detailed statistics available No detailed statistics available. Reduction of ODS emissions Typically profitable with CDM and can under some circumstances be financed with resources from Montreal Protocol Difficulty of associating carbon finance with Montreal Protocol funds. National CFC and Halon Phase-Out Project (P083593); HCFC Project (Phase 1) (P115762) EMISSION REDUCTIONS ESTIMATES (METHODOLOGICAL NOTES) Intervention Sector statistics Projection to 2015 Basis of factor calculation Emissions calculation method TRANSPORT
Modal shift from road to other modes of freight (railroad, inland waterway and coastal shipping) Road freight traffic based on Vietnam Statistical Yearbook (2007) Adapted from Vietnam transport Sector Development Plan until 2020 (16 billion ton-km), assuming a 7% growth rate per year from 2010 to 2015 Estimated based on international emission factors for different modes: Diesel truck: 140 g CO2/ton-km Inland waterway: 42 g CO2/ton-km Railway: 25 g/ton-km Coastal Shipping: 90 g/ton0km Calculated as different in emissions per of freight for different modes Use of E20 (20% of gasoline) biofuel Gasoline fuel demand based on Vietnam CDM guidebook (2004) Projections based on Vietnam CDM Guidebook 2010 estimates (5,910811 kL) and assuming 10% growth in fuel demand per year for 2010–15. Estimated based on lifecycle emission per l of gasoline (2.327 kg CO2/l) and bioethanol (0.97 kg CO2/l) from cassava using numbers from Thailand Difference in emissions of the two fuels associated with the substitution of 20% of total demand for gasoline with bioethanol Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Passenger vehicle fleet estimated for five cities based on available studies: World Bank Transport Strategy (2006); VRA (2007); World Bank Energy Flagship (2009) Same assumptions as above for passenger vehicle fuel standards and electric motorcycles Estimates of fuel use for motorcycles and cars and for BRT based on persons-km/day for typical bus capacity and route lengths scaled to these cities Difference in emissions of the two modes assuming 30% of motorcycle and car fleet will be replaced by BRT ENERGY Energy efficiency in new coal power A Study on National Energy Master Plan Projections for generation capacity expansion for coal power plants between 2010 and 2015 (7,585 MW) based on 2015 Emission factor based on 0.37 kg CO2/kwh for coal Calculated as difference in
plants (2008) and studies described under projections projections of total coal thermal capacity (12,130 MW) in 2015 from the 2007 Institute of Energy Analysis of Vietnam Energy Review and Power Development Plan period with outlook to 2025 and updated number on 2010 capacity (4545 MW) from 2009 Institute of Energy Analysis on Vietnam Power Sector Status and Outlook of Thermal Power plants at 100% efficiency emissions using project efficiencies (35% for subcritical; 40% for supercritical) relative to baseline (30%) Energy efficiency in old coal power plants 2009 Institute of Energy Analysis on Vietnam Power Sector Status and Outlook of Thermal Power plants; capacity added before 2005 is 1245 MW and before 2001 is 669 MW No projections needed Emission factor based on 0.37 kg CO2/kwh coal at 100% efficiency Calculated as difference in emissions using project efficiency (35%) relative to baseline (23% for pre-2001 capacity and 28% for 2001–05 capacity) Improved transmission and distribution The Study on National Power Development Plan for the period 2006-2010 perspective up to 2020 in Vietnam (JICA 2008) Projections of total transmission and distribution and power flows for 500 KV lines (925 MW in dry season; 500 MW in wet season) based on The Study on National Power Development Plan for the period 2006-2010 perspective up to 2020 in Vietnam (JICA 2008) Based on emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Assumes nationally a 6% loss reduction can be achieved to come close to international benchmarks; for 500kV line assumes 3% reduction due to AC upgrading and 0.6% due to smart grid technology (adapted from CTF Investment plan for Vietnam)
Energy-efficient appliances World Bank analysis of appliance energy use using IEA household consumption data (15,445 GWh in 2006) World Bank projections of energy use by appliances in 2015 (23,014 GWh) Emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Calculated as the amount of electricity saved (6.7% improvement potential and 0.9% in 2015), multiplied by the emission factor Small and mini hydropower Institute of Energy 2006 data on hydropower development potential (4,136 MW) No projections needed Emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Calculated as the amount of grid electricity displaced multiplied by the emission factor Medium-sized hydropower Institute of Energy 2006 data on hydropower development potential (1,710 MW) No projections needed Emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Calculated as the amount of grid electricity displaced multiplied by the emission factor Wind power Institute of energy data on potential wind farm projects for eight largest projects (4,249 GWh/yr) No projections needed Emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Calculated as the amount of grid electricity displaced multiplied by the emission factor Agricultural residues for power Draft Master Plan of Renewable Energy Development in Vietnam up to 2015 with orientation until 2025 No projections needed Emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Calculated as the amount of grid electricity displaced multiplied by the
(419 MW) emission factor Geothermal Power Institute of Energy 2006 data (300 MW) No projections needed Emission factor for Vietnam grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) from RCEE 2008 Calculated as the amount of grid electricity displaced multiplied by the emission factor Recovery and use of gas from underground coal fields Institute of energy data on coal supply and demand (2006) Projections for 2015 based on Institute of Energy 2006 data (41,425,000 tons) IPCC emission factor (10 m3 of methane per ton of coal exploited) Multiply emission factor times the tons of coal exploited, assuming 40% is exploited in underground mines. Gas recovery and use from oil fields PetroVietnam data on existing and planned oil fields in Vietnam (7 planned oil fields) No projections needed Based on Rang Dong Project emissions reductions Scale the emission reductions to Rang Dong to other projects WASTE SECTOR Low technologies in urban wastewater Population figures National Statistics, reports on wastewater systems in place Projections for 2015 of urban population using 2002 to 2007 growth rates from National Statistics Wastewater generation based on typical number per unit population; emission factor depended on system used but chosen based on international emissions factors provided from CDM methodologies CDM methodologies were used for various combinations of interventions
20% of total based on performance of other plants) Energy efficiency in cement industry Vietnam Cement Development Plan up to 2010 and prospective to 2020 Projections of electrical and fuel (coal) energy use based on MoNRE 2004 data and Vietnam Cement Development plan up to 2010 with perspective to 2020 (4,132 kTOE). Used emission factor from electricity grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) emissions factor for coal (0.37 kg CO2/kwh for 100% efficiency) and assuming 40% efficiency of burning of coal plants 15% improvement in electrical energy use and 26% in fuels multiplied by total emissions Energy efficiency in brick industry Production based on MoNRE 2004; % of traditional brick manufacturers based on project reports from GEF project Projections in brick production for 2015 based on MoNRE 2004 (27,515 million bricks) Conventional technology (0.3 t CO2/1000 bricks); project (VSBK) (0.161 t CO2/1000) bricks based on Vietnam data Multiplying the production of facilities by the difference between traditional and project emissions factors Recovery of waste heat in iron and steel industry 2005 production of steel billet (875,000 tons) and pig iron (202,000 tons ) is based on data from South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) 2006 Country Reports and Steel Statistical Report Projections in steel production for 2015 based on the Vietnam Steel Development Plan up to 2010 and prospective to 2020 and it is assumed total production growth (from 6,466 to 17,000) is proportional to the growth in production of steel billet (2.3 million tons) and pig iron (531,000 tons) Emission Reductions are: For Blast Furnace Top Pressure Turbine: 17.4 kg CO2/ton pig iron; For Basic Oxygen Furnace: 49.3 kg CO2/ton billet Based on review of Vietnam and international studies Multiplying emissions reduction by projected production Energy efficiency in iron and steel industry 2005 production of pig iron (202,000 tons) and long products (3,264,000 tons) is based on data Projections in steel production for 2015 based on the Vietnam Steel Development Plan up to 2010 and prospective to 2020 and it is assumed total production growth (from 6,466 to 17,000) is proportional to the growth in production Coke Dry Quenching: 61 kg CO2/ton pig iron Pulverized Coal Injection (PCI): 126 kg CO2/ton
from South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) 2006 Country Reports and Steel Statistical Report of pig iron (531,000 tons) and long products (8,634) pig iron Reheating for Electric Arc Furnace: 31 t CO2/ton long product Based on review of Vietnam and international studies Cogeneration in pulp and paper industry Actual production for 2006 from VPC (960,000 tons paper) Projected production for 2010 based on VPC targets (1,400,000 t paper; 600,00 t pulp) to get 2015 estimate (2,154,000 t paper; 923,000 t pulp) 2010 to 2015 based on assumed growth of 9% per year Energy use based on Ernst and Young (2003) Typical paper: 0.25 MWh/ton paper pulp: 2.5 MWh/ton pulp Used emission factor from electricity grid (0.59 kg CO2/kwh) Multiplying energy savings times electricity grid, assuming cogeneration can supply 50% of electricity from pulp and paper plants AND FORESTRY Improving efficiency of fertilizer use in order to reduce nitrous oxide emissions Ministry of Industry and Trade (2008) data on urea use (1.624 million tons) Assuming 7.2% annual increase in urea use up to 2015 (2.29 million tons of urea) 1.54 t CO2/ ton urea from IPCC Assume potential decrease in urea use by improving to 60% efficiency from 40% in Vietnam Livestock waste Population of livestock from General Statistics Office (2007) and number in commercial farms based on MARD report on animal husbandry 2001-2006 (traditional: 25,582,000; Growth up to 2015 assumes a 3% growth rate of population overall with and 8% growth of those in commercial farms, assuming 10% will have biogas (traditional: 29,906,884 heads; commercial: 3,198,407 heads) For traditional farms emission reduction from Vietnam experience (SNV) 0.31 t CO2 per head/yr For commercial farms from USEPA report on Vietnam: 0.42 t CO2/head/yr Multiplying emission reduction times population of commercial and traditional farms