40 The Demographic Dividend 90 80 70 RANDMR1274-2. 12 !60 .e I!! 50 tc 30 20 10 o K.._..i-_,_...... --.....i --""------i. 1 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 4o-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60--64 65+ Age group SOURCE: International Labour Office (1996). Figure 2.12-Labor Force Participation by Age Group, inVarious Regions of the World, 1990 themselves more likely to have been brought up in small families, they are more likely to be educated. This increases their productivity inthe labor market, leading toward a stronger workforce and smaller families. Savings. The demographic transition also encourages the growth of savings, thus improving a country's prospects for investment and growth. Again, there is an accounting effect as well as a behavioral effect at work. The young and the old consume more than they duce, whereas working-age people tend to have a higher level of nomic output and also a higher level of savings (Higgins, 1998; Higgins and Williamson, 1997; Kelley and Schmidt,, 1996; Lee, Ma- 10 4
References 89 Kelley, A., and R. Schmidt, "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of graphic Change," Demography, Vol. 32, 1995, pp. 543-555. --, "Savings, Dependency, and Development," Journal of lation Economics, Vol. 9, 1996, pp. 365-386. Krugman, P., "The Myth of Asia's Miracle," Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, 1994, pp. 62-78. Kuznets, S., "Population Change and Aggregate Output," in Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, Demographic and Economic Changes in Developed Countries, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1960. ---, "Population and Economic Growth," Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 111, 1967, pp. 170-193. Lee, :a.,A. Mason, and T. Miller, "Life Cycle Saving and Demographic Transition: The Case of Taiwan," Population and Development Review, Vol. 26 (Suppl.), 2000, pp. 194-222. Leff, N. D., "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American nomic Review, Vol. 59, 1969, pp. 886-896. Lindh, T., and B. Malmberg, "Age Structure Effects and Growth inthe OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, 1999, pp.431-449. MacEwan, A., Neoliberalism or Democracy? Economic Strategy, kets, and Alternatives for the 21st Century, London: Zed Books, 2001. Maddison, A., Monitoring the World Economy: 1820-1992, Paris: OECD, 1995. Malmberg, B., "Age Structure Effects on Economic Growth-Swedish Evidence," Scandinavian Economic History Review, Vol. 42, No. 3, 1994, pp. 279-295. Malmberg, B., and T. Lindh, "Population Change and Economic Growth inthe Western World, 1850-1990," Social Science History Association meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 2000.
INDEX Abortion, legalization of, 66 African migration, to Europe, 65-66, 66n Age structure, changes in debate over, 1-2 declining mortality and fertility, 25-39, 69 the demographic "dividend," xiii, 34-39, 81-82 demographic transitions and, 33- 34, 52 importance of, xi-xii, 20-23 mechanisms of, 39-12 policy environments and, 36, 42, 58 savings and, 40-41, 4ln Age-specific fertility, 32n Aging population, effects of in East Asia, 46 health care and, 78-80 health care expenditures, 79-80 in Ireland, 36-37 in Japan, 46 in Russia, 67 in Western Europe, 50-51 Agriculture, innovations in, 12, 15-16 AIDS mortality, 6ln, 63-64 Seealso HIVIAIDS, effects of Alcohol abuse, 66 Annan, Kofi, 64 Antibiotics, improved, 69 Antidiscrimination legislation, 73 Australia, demographic transition analysis, 43, 49-51 = note. Baby-boom generation changing age structure and, 30 in East Asia, 44, 45 growth of savings, 41 health policies for, 70 labor force participation rates, 39- 40 in South and Southeast Asia, 56 in Western Europe, 49-50 Bangladesh, 27-28, 56 Barbados, 57 Birth rates, 35, 46, 72 Bolivia, 57 Botswana, 62 Brazil, 57, 75 Bulgaria, 66 Bulge generation, 30, 32 Canada, 49 Case study analyses, on population change and economic growth, 43 Australia, 49-51 East Asia, 44-46 Eastern Europe, 66-68 Japan, 46-48 Latin America, 57-59 Middle East, 59-61 New Zealand, 49-51 North Africa, 59-61 North America, 49-51 Russia (Soviet Union), 66-68 South and Southeast Asia, 51-57 sub-Saharan Africa, 61-66 Western Europe, 44, 44n, 49-51 99
102 The Demographic Dividend on family planning programs, 2, 72-73 in Japan, 46 in Latin America, 57, 62 in North America, 49 on population decline, 38, 39n on population growth, 2, 32 in Russia, 66, 67 in South and Southeast Asia, 52, 53, 62 in sub-Saharan Africa, 61-62, 62n, 64-65 in Western Europe, 49, 50 Financial markets, investments in, 76-77 Foreign direct investment (FDI), 56, 76 Foreign investments, 35 Georgia, 66 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization, 71 Global population, trends in, 2-12, 2n Global trade, 60 Government corruption, 59n Grameen Bank, 76, 77 Green Revolution, 16 Guatemala, 57 Haiti, 57 Health care centers, 71 Health policies in Eastern Europe, 66-67 financing expenditures for, 79-80 implementation process for, 71 improvements in, 25-26, 69-70 priorities in, 70-71 reproductive behavior and, 73 in Russia, 66 in South and Southeast Asia, 56 in Western Europe, 50-51 Heterosexual sex, 63 Higher education, 35, 77 See also Education and training policies HIVIAIDS, effects of In Eastern Europe, 66-67 Southeast Asia, 53 in Africa, 61n, 63-64 in Thailand, 56 Hong Kong, 46 Human capital, Investments In education and, 42 life expectancy and, 41-42 standards ofliving and, 12, 13, 14n Immigration workers In Ireland, 35 ln Japan, 50 In sub-Saharan Africa, 65-66, 65n, 66n In United States, 50 In Western Europe, 51 Immunization programs, 69 India, 56 Industry and technology innovations In, 12, 15-16, 77 ln Japan,47 Infant health care, 70 Infant mortality rates, 26 In East Asia, 44 In England, 49 In Latin America, 57 In sub-Saharan Africa, 61 Infectious disease, impact of In Eastern Europe, 66-67 on infant mortality rates, 26 In sub-Saharan Africa, 62, 63 Inflation rates, impact of, 76 Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealthof Nations (Smith), 17 Interest rates, impact of, 76 Investments, prospects for, 40, 76 Ireland · changing age structure, 30 contraceptive use In, 34-35, 44n demographic events In, 34-36 Irrigation, innovations In, 12 Italy, 38
Index 103 Japan aging population, 47 demographic transition analysis, 43, 46--48 fertility rates, 46 industry and technology, 47 life expectancy, 46 median age, 46, 50 pension system, 47 policy issues, 48 population decline in, 38, 39n poverty rates, 46 Jordan, 59, 60 Kelley, Allen, 18 Kenya, 62 Korea, 46 Labor force in Japan, 48n social/economic challenges of, 38 in sub-Saharan Africa, 48n Labor income, and education, 29 Labor market flexibility in, 17, 75 in South and Southeast Asia, 56 Labor supply, effects on, 39-40 Latin America changing age structure, 22 contraceptive use, 62 demographic transition analysis, 43, 57-59 economic growth, 57 fertility rates, 57, 62 infant mortality rates, 57 life expectancy, 57 openness to trade, 57-58, 74-75, 75n policy issues, 59 population growth, 57 working-age population, 58 Latvia, 66 Legislation, antidiscrimination, 73 Llfe cycle income, and consumption, 20-21 Llfe expectancy in medicine/public health and, 25 female advantage in, 79 human capital and, 41-42 in Japan, 46 in Latin America, 57 in Mozambique, 62-63 in Western Europe, 49 Malthus, Thomas, 2-3 Marriage rates, 74 Median age, 26n in Europe, 50 in Japan, 46, 50 Medical interventions, 25-26, 71 MENA. See Middle East; North Africa Middle East demographic transition analysis, 43, 59-61 education and training, 60-61 fertility rates, 59-60 life expectancy, 59 working-age population, 60 Migration workers in Ireland, 35 in sub-Saharan Africa, 65-66, 65n, 66n Minimum wage policies, 75-76 Ministries; 71 Mortality, declines in contraceptive use and, 69 demographic transitions and, 25- 39 population growth and, 30, 32 Mozambique, 62-63 Multi-annual cropping, 16 Namibia, 62 NAS. See U.S. National Academy of Sciences National savings, 41 Natural resources, 19, 39n Neutralist population theory, 17-20, 81 New Zealand, demographic transition analysis, 43, 49-51
106 The Demographic Dividend Thailand,56, 63--64 Tobago,57 Tourism,56 Trade policy, openness to basis in, 17n in Latin America, 57-58, 74-75, 75n in Middle East, 60 Training and education policies, pact of on earnings, 42 in East Asia, 53-57 fertility rates and, 28-30, 73 investments in, 77-78, 81 in Ireland, 35 in Middle East, 60-61 in North Africa, 60-61 poor health and, 70 on working-age population, 75 Trinidad, 57 Ukraine, 66, 67 WtimateResource, The (Simon), 15 UN.See United Nations (UN) Unemployment, effects of in Ireland, 36 in Saudi Arabia, 60 in South and Southeast Asia, 56 United Kingdom, 49 United Nations (UN), 3, 5ln United Nations Population Fund, 72 United States, 50 Urbanization, increasing, 29 Uruguay, 57 U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS),3, 17 Vaccination campaigns, 71 Wage earnings, minimum education and, 42 policy of, 75-76 Africa, 65 War, effects of, 62 Washington Consensus, 58n Western Europe aging population, 50-51 demographic transition analysis, 43, 44n, 49-51 fertility rates, 49, 50 infant mortality rates, 49 life expectancy, 49 policy issues, 50-51 population growth, 49 working-age population, 49-50 WHO. See World Health Organizati (WHO) Working-age population decrease in, 37 in East Asia, 37, 44n, 45 economic output of, 40-41 labor market flexibility and, 75 in Latin America, 58 in Russia, 66, 67 in South and Southeast Asia, 52 in sub-Saharan Africa, 37, 61, 64, 65-66 in Western Europe, 49-50 Working single mothers, 74 World Health Organization (WHO), 69 World population, trends in, 2-12, 2n World War II,impact after advances in medicine/public health, 25 in Asia, 2, 47 in Japan, 47 Yemen, 60 Youth dependency rates, 35 Yunus, Muhammad, 76, 77 Zimbabwe, 62