Note: name of the corresponds to an empty table created in pgAdmin III under the Table icon, and filename is the complete path name of the file from which data is to be loaded. Repeat Step 4 for each table that needs to be populated with data. Exit the Command Prompt window. Chapter-6 Currently, CEMSELTS is available only as a Visual C++ (VC++) Project. To run CEMSELTS, open the project in VC++. Set the compilation environment as Debug Win32. Compile the file called SimCoordinator.cpp. Once compiled without any error, go to the folder named “Debug” (which should be located inside the place, where you stored your CEMSELTS project). Click on the Debug folder and you will see the application file. Double-click on the application to launch
Individual Models: Demographics & Mobility 1 Mortality Model Binary Logit California Department of Public Health 2 Birth Model Binary Logit California Department of Public Health 3 Base Year License Model Binary Logit FHWA 4 Obtain License Model Binary Logit Highway Statistics 2010 FHWA (California) 5 Maintain License Binary Logit Rule Based Individual Models: Schooling Models 6 School location model Multinomial SCAG Survey 2003 7 College location model Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 8 Base Year Dropout Rate Model Binary Logit SCAG Survey 2003 9 Base Year Education Attainment Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 Individual Models: Employment Models Participation Model Binary Logit SCAG Survey 2003 11 Start Employment Model Binary SCAG Survey 2003 12 Employment Industry Model Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 13 Work Flexibility Model Ordered Probit SCAG Survey 2003 14 Work Duration Model Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 15 Continue Employment Model Multinomial Logit Bureau of Statistics 2012 Currently a very simple constants only is used. It is preferable to have a more comprehensive model based on survey data. 16 Household Income Model Ordered Probit SCAG Survey 2003 17 Work location model Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 Table A-1: CEMSELTS Evolution Model Components (Continued) Sl. Num. Model Description Model Type Current Data Source Comment Household Formation Models
18 Marriage Model Binary National Survey of Family Growth - CDC (2006-2010) 19 Divorce Model Binary National Survey of Family Growth - CDC (2006-2010) 20 Child Custody Model No Data Need data to estimate model 21 Resource allocation Model No Data Need data to estimate model 22 Move In Binary Logit No Data Need data to estimate model - ignoring the move-in process can potentially lead to over-estimation of single person households. 23 Husbands Age Model Multinomial Logit National Survey of Family Growth - CDC (2006-2010) 24 Move In Age Model Multinomial Logit No Data Same as Move-in model 25 Move out Model Multinomial Logit Pew Research Center 2011 Currently a very simple constants only model is used. It is preferable to have a more comprehensive model based on survey data. 26 Move In Gender Model Binary No Data Same as Move-in 27 Husbands Race Multinomial National Survey of Family Growth - CDC (2006-2010) 28 Husbands Educ Attainment Model Multinomial Logit National Survey of Family Growth - CDC (2006-2010) long term choice models 29 Residential Mobility Model Binary Logit Rate based model (using data from London, UK) We need data specific to LA (or California) 30 Residential Tenure Model Binary Logit SCAG Survey 2003 31 Housing Type for Owners Model Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 32 Housing Type for Renters Model Multinomial SCAG Survey 2003 33 Vehicle Ownership Model Multinomial Logit SCAG Survey 2003 34 Residential location Multinomial SCAG Survey 2003 35 Emigration Binary Logit US Census Bureau 2009 We currently have a simple rate model to predict net immigration rate (Immigration rate). It is preferable to have a more comprehensive model based on household demographics for both emigration and immigration. 36 Immigration for households Binary Logit US Census Bureau 2009 37 Immigration Model for single households Binary Logit US Census Bureau 2009
A-13 (Continued) Estimation Results of MNL Component for Primary Driver Allocation Variable Education Employment Status Distance to work less than 10 miles Bachelor or Associate Worker Param. t-stat Param. t-stat Param. t-stat No vehicle -- -- -- -- -- -- Sub-compact -- -- 0.143 2.346 -- -- Compact car -- -- 0.143 2.346 -- -- mid size car -- -- 0.090 1.434 -- -- Large car -- -- 0.070 0.829 -- -- Small SUV -- -- 0.070 0.829 -- -- Mid SUV -- -- -- -- 0.073 0.903 Large SUV -- -- -0.231 -3.626 0.073 0.903 Van -- -- -0.231 -3.626 -- -- Pickup -- -- -- -- -- -- Less than 2 years 0.060 1.310 0.103 2.217 -0.062 -1.208 2 to 3 years 0.060 1.310 0.103 2.217 -0.062 -1.208 4 to 5 0.060 1.310 -- -- -- -- 6 to 9 years -- -- -- -- -- -- 10 to 12 years -- -- -- -- -- -- More than 12 -- -- -- -- -- --
Variable Parameter Constant -3.412 Black 0.814 Hispanic 0.575 Female 15-22 years 0.612 Female 23-30 years 0.251 Table A-24 Move out Model Variable Alternatives No Independent Household Join Existing Household Out of Region Constant 2.15 1.5 1.5 1.5 Table A-25 Husband Age Choice Model Variable Alternatives <22 years 22-28 28-35 years Constant -3.452 -0.189 0.7322 White 0.428 0.148 0 Black -0.397 -0.397 -0.397 Hispanic 0.557 0 0 Female 15-22 years 7.119 3.9484 1.0841 Female 23-30 3.6168 2.995 1.172 A-26 Husband Race Choice Model Variable Alternatives Hispanic Non-hispanic Non-hispanic Parameter t-stat Parameter t-stat Parameter t-stat Constant -2.132 -10.227 0.092 0.479 -1.101 -3.728 Female 15-22 years 0 NA -0.874 -4.84 -0.948 -3.386 Female 23-30 0 NA -0.522 -2.872 -0.725 -2.6 Race White 2.544 10.4 3.911 25.781 1.138 4.456 Black 2.224 6.09 0.818 2.657 5.219 18.135 Hispanic 5.562 20.312 2.335 10.56 2.004 6.601 A-27 Residential Mobility Model
Variable Parameter Constant -2.785 A-28 Vehicle Ownership Model Variable Alternative One Vehicle Two vehicle Three vehicle Four and more vehicle Constant 1.490 1.717 1.569 0.839 Only one adult age greater than 15 and either student or employed 0.282 -2.062 -3.752 -3.988 Only one age greater than 15 and neither student nor employed -0.709 -2.953 -4.770 -5.097 Two age greater than 15 with one either student or employed and other nothing 0 0 -1.595 -2.215 Only two age greater than 15 and either student or employed 0 0.538 -1.064 -1.774 Only two adult age greater than 15 and neither student nor employed 0 0 -1.667 -2.534 Presence of children in household -0.241 -0.275 -0.417 -0.479 Medium income household (35K-50K) 1.412 2.026 2.172 1.953 Household income between 50K-75K 2.093 3.062 3.386 3.694 Household Income >75K 2.378 3.990 4.639 4.989 Table A-29 Start Employment Model