Others Subtotal 4,630,000 240,600,000 Project management cost 0 9800000 Total project costs 4,630,000 250,400,000 Project Framework Project Objective: Promote energy efficient, low-carbon transport and urban systems in the Gazipur area of north Greater Dhaka, through the delivery of a 20 kilometer Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) corridor and associated infrastructure, systems and capacity building. The project is a “first of its kind” in Bangladesh with important demonstration effect and replication potential as no modern mass-transit system currently exists in Bangladesh. The GEF financing will be used to finance the incremental cost gap of leapfrogging to and demonstrating low carbon bus and street lighting technology. Project Component Grant Type Expected Outcomes Expected Outputs Trust Fund Amount ($) Confirmed Cofinancing ($) 1. Construction of BRT and associated infrastructure along the Gazipur-Dhaka corridor (Baseline Project) 1. Improved access to efficient, reliable, and affordable low carbon urban transport 2. Improved quality of life in the Gazipur Area (Resident positive perception of public transport and urban life quality improves by 50% from baseline 2012) 3. Reduced GHG and other emissions (estimated 1.1 million tonnes GHG savings over 20 years; PM2.5 reduced by 20%) 4. Reduced vulnerability to climate change, especially flooding 1. 20 kilometer BRT line and associated systems 2. Non-motorized Transport (NMT) lane per direction; improved sidewalks along the BRT; and improved NMT access on feeder roads 3. BRT terminal and intermodal interchange near Gazipur railway station 4. Efficient drainage system constructed along the corridor to alleviate monsoon flooding 5. Improved traffic management infrastructure and systems 0 226,770,000 2. Capacity building in BRT management, traffic management and urban planning, and establishment of financial and 1. Reform of Dhaka's urban transport system 2. Efficient and BRT operations 1. Dhaka Transport Coordination Authority established to undertake planning, regulation and coordination of all 0 6,600,000 managed
Name Position Ministry Date (MM/dd/yyyy) Mr Mesbah Al Alam GEF Operational Focal Point for Bangladesh / Secretary-in-charge ENVIRONMENT AND FORESTS 04/20/2011 B. GEF agency(ies) certification This request has been prepared in accordance with GEF/LDCF/SCCF/NPIF policies and procedures and meets the GEF/LDCF/SCCF/NPIF criteria for CEO endorsement/approval of project. Agency Coordinator, Agency Name Signature Date (Month, day, year) Project Contact Person Telephone Email Address Nessim Director, Environment and Safeguards concurrently Practice Leader (Environment) Asian Development Bank July 24, 2012 David Margonsztern, Urban Development Specialist (Transport) +632 6325787 dmargonsztern@adb.org
A: PROJECT RESULTS FRAMEWORK Design Summary Performance Targets and Indicators Data Sources and Reporting Mechanisms Assumptions and Impact A sustainable urban transport system is developed in TGPA By 2020: Project saves average 40,000 (vs. scenario “without project”) Air pollutants (PM2.5) annual level decrease by 20% (baseline 2006:76.72 μg/m3) GCC walkability index rating improves from 39 (baseline 2010) to 60 out of 100 CDM evaluation reports (Validator) DOE annual report; and PMU results monitoring of the Abt CAI-A walkability index and survey Assumption Sustained government commitment to institutional reforms in the sector, and to private sector development. Outcome The public transport system is improved in TGPA, benefiting a population of 1 million By 2017: Resident positive perception of public transport and urban life quality improves by 50% from baseline 2012. BRT achieves 100,000 pax / day ridership [at least 30% women] in 1st year of operation Modal share of public transport increase from 40% (baseline 2011) to 50% SPO Claim Book and Socio-economic / perception survey SPO annual reports SPO / DTCA annual reports Risk Political instability in GCC, following its creation. Outputs 1. TGPA’s main urban transport corridor is restructured 20 km. BRT mixed traffic lanes, NMT lanes, sidewalks and terminal and depot in Gazipur completed by 2016 as per design and international quality standards, including safety design features for women, children and disabled 90% flood-free days along the corridor by 2017 100 m. stretch in 155 feeder roads improved for NMT by 2016 Airport BRT terminal developed as part of an intermodal hub through PPP scheme, by 2016 PMU / SPO annual reports SPO flood incidents annual report PMU / SPO annual reports SPO annual reports Risk Frequent strikes (garment workers, bus operators, etc.) causing project delays.
Municipal infrastructures (10 local markets, 9 drains, and 141 local roads) improved by 2016 [target: 30% women participation] Activities with Milestones Inputs ADB Loan: $100 million OCR, and $60 million ADF Item Amount ($ million) Civil works 84.4 Equipment 17.0 Consulting services 13.2 Compensation/ fleet scrapping program 9.7 SPO operating cost 14.0 Interest charge and contingencies 21.7 AFD Loan: $45 million Joint financing with ADB Government: $45.4 million Item Amount ($ million) and duties 26.5 Civil works 3.5 SPO operating cost 3.3 Land acquisition and resettlement 8.1 Interest charge and contingencies 4.0 GEF Grant: $4.6 million
d Lifetime Direct Savings 16,000 CO2e t = a * b * c Indirect Impact: The concept of eco-driving and associated routine maintenance has strong potential for replication in other mass transit lines currently planned for Bangladesh; and more broadly in the Bangladesh bus industry. Bottom-up Calculation on replications. Baseline Project With GEF Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/assumption/ source a Lifetime Direct and Post-Project Savings 23,250 CO2e t From calculations of Direct and Direct Post-Project Impacts. Assumes that operation and the level of GHG savings will be sustained, supported by ongoing eco-driving/maintenance training and financing mechanisms, as described above. b Replications 4 The estimate of 4 replications is based on an additional 3 BRT lines in Dhaka and 1 BRT line in Chittagong, as explained under Component 1a: Energy Efficient Buses. c Lifetime Indirect Savings 93,000 CO2e t = a * b Top-down Calculation Based on market potential and GEF Manual for Calculating GHG Benefits of GEF Transport Projects. Baseline Project With GEF Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/assumption/ source a market size: Buses in Bangladesh 40,000 buses Source: Statistical Yearbook of Bangladesh -2010, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics b minus buses outside target market 36,000 buses = a * 90% Assume 90% of total market is unlikely or impractical to implement eco-driving and maintenance regimes over the post-project 10 years and achieve full GHG savings for a range of reasons including: existing bus is old and in very poor condition; lack of available finance to implement improved maintenance; perceived lack of time and expertise required to implement the changes; market inertia (resistance to change); etc. The remaining 10% of the total bus market is expected to be highly responsive to adoption of because of the clear cost savings and rapid pay-back period. c Market potential 4,000 4,000 buses = a – b d Average GHG Savings per bus per year 15 CO2e t Average over 10 year period, from calculation of Direct Impact (see above). e Project Life 10 years
f Total GHG Savings from complete target market conversion 600,000 CO2e t = c * d * e For 10 year post-project influence period. g Causality factor 0.6 Substantial. The GEF activity will have a strong demonstration effect and impact on catalyzing replication in planned BRT transit (see Bottom-up calculation) and larger non-BRT bus companies, because of the potential for direct financial savings from reduced fuel consumption. But modest impact could also be attributed to baseline shifts. On balance, the overall causality is rated conservatively as Substantial. h Lifetime Indirect Savings 360,000 CO2e t = f * g GEF-funded Activity 2: Energy efficient street lighting Baseline: Install 1,000 standard 400w High Pressure Sodium street/station lights the BRT corridor Incremental Activity: Upgrade to energy-efficient lighting. Supported by improved maintenance procedures to maximize efficiency and productivity over the life of the lights. Direct Impact: Reduction in electricity consumption. Calculation on Manual for Calculating GHG Benefits of GEF Projects: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Projects Baseline Project With GEF Contribution Units Calculation Rationale/ assumptions/ source a Electricity consumption per light per hour 650 Watt-hrs Based on industry data for 400 W HP Sodium Streetlight (includes allowance for distribution, cable, transformer losses, etc) b Electricity consumption per per hour 0 c Saving per light 650 Watt-hrs = a - b d Saving per light per year 2,850 kWh = 365*1* c Assumes 365 day operation, average 12 hrs per day e No. of Lights 1,000 f Total annual energy saving 2,850 MWh = d * e/ 1000 g CO2 Energy intensity 0.575 CO2e t/MWh Figure for Bangladesh from IEA 2011 "CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion - Highlights 2011" h Annual GHG Savings 1,640 CO2e t = f * g