Chapter 9 Australia’s 2020 and 2030 The Authority considers that a 5 per cent target for 2020 is not a credible contribution to the global goal of keeping warming below 2 degrees. A 5 per cent target would leave an improbably large emissions reduction task to later; rapid reductions would be needed after 2020 to stay within the recommended long-term budget. The Authority recommends a minimum 2020 target of 15 per cent 2000 levels. It considers this to be the minimum consistent with the science. The Authority also recommends that Australia’s carryover from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol be used to strengthen Australia’s target by 4 percentage points, to 19 per cent below 2000 levels. This target is challenging but achievable. It is a fair contribution to the global task, is consistent with the targets of many comparable countries, and can be achieved at manageable cost. To 2030, the Authority recommends a trajectory of 40 to 60 per cent below 2000 levels. This range allows Australia to step up efforts if stronger global action emerges or to moderate them if weaker global action makes more than 2 degrees of warming likely. It also maintains flexibility to respond to new information about climate science and economic developments. In Chapter 9, the Authority recommends emissions reduction goals to 2020 and 2030 consistent with its recommended budget to 2050 (Chapter 8). It covers: the risks and opportunities for Australia within an increasingly global economy the key of evidence from this Review to conclude that a 2020 emissions reduction target of 5 per cent is inadequate an emissions reduction pathway for the short and medium term (including a 2020 target and 2030 trajectory range). The Authority makes these recommendations following analysis of the best available evidence and consultation with experts and submissions from over 12,000 members of the public. While different goals were canvassed and assessed, the Authority believes these recommendations provide a credible set of goals for Australia. 9.1 The long-term budget has implications for actions In this report, the Authority adopts a budget approach to emissions reduction goals for the short, medium and long term (Chapter 7). Setting a budget for emissions through to 2050 highlights the trade-offs between actions taken now and those made necessary later. The balance of effort over time has implications for the costs of
If the global trend towards stronger action on climate change is sustained, Australia will need to do more to transition away from its high-emissions economy. The Authority’s recommendations would help Australia to remain competitive in an increasingly emissions-constrained global economy. 9.3.2 National emissions trajectory and budget As discussed in Chapter 7, the Authority recommends a simple straight-line trajectory to 2020. This trajectory tracks from Australia’s target under the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol to the recommended target in 2020. This trajectory corresponds to a national emissions budget of 4,193 Mt CO2-e for the period 2013 to 2020. Figure 9.2 illustrates the recommended emissions reductions goals to 2020. Figure 9.2: Recommended 2020 for Australia Source: Climate Change Authority Even with a target of 15 per cent plus carryover in 2020, emissions reductions would need to accelerate after 2020 if Australia was to stay on track to meet the Authority’s recommended budget to 2050. The next section describes the Authority’s recommendations for the medium term. Recommendations R.5 A minimum 2020 emissions reduction target of 15 per cent below 2000 levels. R.6 Australia’s carryover from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol be used to raise the 2020 emissions reduction target by 4 percentage points, giving a 2020 target of 19 per cent. R.7 An indicative national trajectory for the period 2013–2020 that follows a straight line to the 2020 target. This line starts at Australia’s first commitment period target under the Kyoto Protocol (108 per cent of 1990 levels) in 2010, and ends at 19 per cent below 2000 levels in 2020. R.8 A national carbon budget for the period 2013–2020 of 4,193 Mt CO2-e. 9.4 Guidance beyond 2020—recommended 2030 goals The Authority recommends a trajectory range to 2030 of 40 to 60 per cent below 2000 levels as guidance for future targets. Figure 9.3 illustrates the recommended trajectory range in the context of the full set of goals. Figure 9.3: Recommended goals for Australia