8:15 am Plenary (John M.) (Jeff M.) Video of Climate Change Scenario Overnight Insights and share written narratives. Explain management implications & actions Presentation: From implications & actions to management decisions: various ways to use insights from scenarios; tips on communicating scenarios and formulating no regrets actions Start to identify potential actions for each of 3-4 chosen nested scenarios. 10:00 am BREAK 10:15 am Groups Develop recommendations for selected scenarios based on mgmt. implications. Focus on no-regrets actions that apply to all selected climate futures, when possible. Prepare for testing and scientific validation of scenarios, and consider the best way to communicate the issues. 12:00 pm LUNCH 1:00 pm 2:00 pm Groups Plenary (Bob W., F., John M., Jeff M.) Groups consider management implications to revise scenario narratives in follow-up webinar NEXT STEPS How do we use this work and where do we go with it? What actions apply to all scenarios => least regrets actions? Incorporate scenario planning into landscape-scale collaboration and adaptation (working with neighbors and across jurisdictions) 3:00 pm BREAK 3:15 pm Plenary (Bob W., Nancy F., John M., Jeff M.) Need for follow-up discussions/teleconferences to out scenarios and actions for up to 3 examples for each administrative unit Draft report from SNAP, web links and access to data Public Outreach and sharing CC scenarios within and outside NPS units. Final thoughts from park superintendents. 4:15 pm Plenary (Bob W). FINAL THOUGHTS / THANKS/ADJOURN Appendix B: Workshop Participant List Lead Team Bob Winfree National Park Service, Alaska Regional Office, Regional Science Advisor
Coastal erosion claims both natural and cultural resources and constructed assets. Coastal erosion is proceeding at an average of 20” (0.5 m)/year in some areas of CAKR and in BELA. Coasts in some communities are eroding much more rapidly than this (tens of meters per year). Some constructed assets, historic and prehistoric sites will no longer be sustainable and will require triage to determine which to repair, relocate, document, or abandon. Large areas of Alaska’s coastal parks lack needed surveys for archaeological sites. HH Don C.: this has been an issue for a long time, but even now, we don’t have the resources to mitigate it, let alone do the surveys. Ken: Cultural resources potential loss could be mitigated through expanded archeological data recovery Burials and other human remains are exposed in some areas as cultural sites thaw and erode due to changing hydrology, ice, snow, and permafrost thaw. H Soil Soil moisture declines due to rising soil temperature, increased evapotranspiration, thawing permafrost, and natural drainage. MH Rock and gravel Demand for rubble and rock increases, as it is required for repairs and new construction, roads, and community relocation. MHH Ken: Can be addressed by planning and human action. Linda Jeschke- people are already scrambling in Kotzebue for gravel. Biosphere General Ecological “tipping points” are likely to result in rapid change, when conditions exceed physical or physiological thresholds (e.g., thaw, drought, water temperature). LHH Wendy: not sure that we will hit thresholds in the next several decades. Vegetation Increased growing season length. Modeling predicts that the mean number of frost free days for the Boreal and Arctic bioregion will increase between 20 and 40 days by the end of the century. LLH Biosphere Vegetation Increased agricultural production in Alaska. A longer growing season and Alaska’s abundant summer sunlight provide new agricultural opportunities in some areas. LLLM Peter: right now USDA considers Nome to have 5 frost free days. It would take a lot to become an agriculturally significant area. Linda: would be good if people did more local gardening. Only a few greenhouses.
Large-scale landcover changes occur over periods of years to decades. Some terrestrial vegetation models suggest potential for large-scale conversion of low tundra to shrubs, then to conifers, and from conifers to deciduous forests, or perhaps to grass. Other models indicate increasing lichen, decreased sedges, and increases to deciduous and evergreen shrubs. HHH Peter: ranked as high mainly because of shrub increase. Doesn’t see that reflected much in this document. This is what we mean by “landcover change.” Loss of tundra habitats would create challenges for ungulates. Tree species and vegetation classes shift as species typical of lower altitudes and latitudes expand into higher areas. LHHH Linda: large impacts on all wildlife. Mountain and arctic ecosystems change substantially within 50 years, and conditions become unsuited for some native species. Some rare species could become endangered and endangered plants species may go extinct as conditions change. MHH Atypical outbreaks of and plant diseases occur more widely, increasing fire hazards and hastening decline of native and familiar species. LLMH Peter: lots of uncertainty. Linda Jeschke: now prevalent south of us, may also happen here. Invasive exotic species and native species from areas expand into parks. It becomes easier for invasive species that are already adapted to such conditions, to survive, reproduce and expand into available habitat as native species become increasingly stressed by changing conditions such as rising temperature and declining soil moisture. LH Peter: low, but again, lots of uncertainty. Ken-high. Could be a major concern over longer time periods, might be addressed on a regional or landscape scale Shrubs and expand further into tundra primarily along hillsides and valleys. Some scenic tundra vistas become thick with deciduous trees and shrubs, obscuring wildlife observations from visitor centers and park roads. LH Biosphere Black spruce may expand or contract, expanding under warming conditions coupled with increasing fire interval – or contracting as underlying permafrost soils thaw and fire frequency increases. LMM Peter: too much uncertainty to say for sure. Fire Fire increases in boreal and tundra ecosystems. Model simulations show a warming climate leads to slightly more fires and much larger fires, as well as expansion of forest into previously treeless tundra. Flammability increases rapidly in direct response to climate warming and more gradually in response to climate-induced vegetation changes. MHH
Wildland fire hazards increase, affecting communities and isolated property owners. LLMM Fire-related landcover and soil changes include vegetation population shifts, permafrost thawing, soil decomposition, and surface subsidence. HH Peter: Fire resets the successional trajectories toward graminoid- dominated systems. Wildlife – General Changes to the terrestrial and aquatic species compositions in parks and refuges occur as ranges shift, contract, or expand. Rare species and/or communities may become further at risk, and additional species could become rare. Some early-succession species will benefit from changes. MHH Parks and refuges may not be able to meet their mandate of protecting current species within their boundaries, or in the case of some refuges, the species for whose habitat protection they were designed. While some wildlife may be able to move northward or to higher elevations to escape some effects of climate change, federal boundaries are static. MHH Changes in terrestrial and marine wildlife distributions affect visitor experiences and subsistence throughout the region. LHH Some species suffer severe losses. An analysis of potential climate change impacts on mammalian species in U.S. national parks indicates that on average about 8% of current mammalian species diversity may be lost. The greatest losses across all parks occurred in rodent species (44%), bats (22%), and carnivores (19%). HHH Biosphere Wildlife – General Predator-prey relationships may change in unexpected ways. MH Migratory routes and destinations will change for some species (e.g., wetlands, open tundra, snow patches). HHH Peter: especially loons Wildlife – Birds Arctic and alpine breeding birds’ breeding habitats will be reduced or eliminated as trees and shrubs encroach on areas currently occupied by tundra. 72% of Arctic and alpine birds are considered moderately or highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. HHH Peter: yellow-billed loons and montane nesting shorebirds main issues. Boreal forest birds expand into the arctic as climate changes, causing new avian communities to develop. MMH
Tourism Tourism season lengthens with increasing temperatures and more snow-free days. Some visitor activities increase, while others (e.g., snow sports) may decline. LL Landscape-level changes affect visitor experiences as iconic scenery changes, and access for subsistence, hiking, boating, etc. changes with vegetation, soil, and water conditions. Some changes are conducive to visitation, and some are not, depending on local conditions and visitor expectations. LM Other Human Uses and Values Tourism Visitor use patterns shift as tour operators seek to provide visitors with more opportunities to experience increasingly uncommon glacier scenery. Cruise ships and day tour operators may shift some itineraries away from the parks they’ve traditionally visited, or seek more opportunities to shift itineraries deeper into the parks. Land based operators may press to bring groups further into the park through aircraft, airboats, snowmobile tours, off road vehicles (ORVs), and road extensions. LLH Linda: not much tourism here because there are few facilities. Visitor demand for new interpretive/education media products, publications and services that address changing climate will increase, putting pressure on existing programs and staffing. LMHHH John Morris: anticipates an increase in virtual interpretive services or requests. Others agree. More cruise ships pass through the Bering Strait as ice-free conditions become more reliable. LH Coastal tourism destinations are affected by increase coastal erosion, and losses of natural and cultural resources, natural routes of access, and built infrastructure. LH Safety hazards develop, expand or are recognized in relation to climate change, such as thin ice, erratic flooding, changing fire and smoke hazards, slope failures (mudslides, landslides, tsunami hazards), and expansion of more disease organisms (fish, wildlife, and human) and their vectors into Alaska. MH Peter: both snow machining and boating have become more dangerous. Other Hazards The predictive uses of traditional ecological knowledge will change, as unprecedented changes develop for weather, freeze/thaw conditions, plants, animals, fire, etc. HHHH Traditional Knowledge Natural resource development and economic activities expand in Alaska with increasing global demand for energy and resources to supply rising global population. HHHHH
Economic Development Infrastructure development expands Alaska’s coasts and Interior to provide needed services, facilities, and transportation systems for other expanded activities. MH Human Uses and Values Economic Development Developmental pressures increase as direct or indirect effects of reduced snow and ice cover. These include expanded global and regional transportation systems and their associated infrastructure (e.g. opening of the Northwest Passage due to reduced sea ice, permanent roads to replace ice roads), increased demand for natural resource development (construction materials – especially gravel and rock, energy and minerals for infrastructure repair, replacement, and expansion), shifting agricultural production zones, community resettlement and other population shifts. MH Damage to roads, buildings, and other infrastructure increases due largely to permafrost thaw (but also from storms, floods, and landslides) adding 10% to by 2080. HH Ken: could especially be a problem under flat or declining budgets. Relocating indigenous communities represents a social burden, not just financial cost for governments, but also impacts the communities themselves, potentially resulting in loss of integral cultural elements such as access to traditional use areas for subsistence activities, loss of history and sense of intact community, and potential loss of social networks and extended kin support. Significant increases in social pathologies such as alcoholism and domestic violence may be anticipated. In addition, tremendous stresses will be placed on traditional means of conflict resolution. In addition multiple strains will be placed on local governance and delivery of services. Finally, state and federal governments will have huge additional burdens placed on them as they try to provide relief from the impacts of climate change (flooding, destruction of infrastructure, high demands placed on social services and so forth). Response to climate change will require enormous pressures for integrated and efficient bureaucratic structures. HHH Ken: What is the NPS role in this? Fuel and energy prices increase substantially as carbon mitigation measures are implemented (sequestration, carbon caps, offsets, etc.). Transporting fuels to remote locations by barge, ice roads, aircraft, etc. also becomes more challenging and costly. HHHH Bud: anticipates that there will be increased demand for alternative energy sources.