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TABLE A1.4 PROJECTS THAT CHANGE INDUSTRY Record no. Company Lifetime cost range ($m) Action Initial Subsequent Initial Subsequent (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) A. Change in project scope 4979 Liddell Coal Operations n/a – 85 Expansion of Liddell Coal mine Expansion of washplant for Liddell Coal Mining (Coal) Manufacturing (Chemicals) Discard 5742 Newcrest Mining 215 – 424 Telfer Deeps (Mariner) gold mine expansion, Stage 2 Telfer Deeps (Mariner) gold mine expansion, processing plant (18 Mt/a) Mining (Metal Ores) Manufacturing (Metal Products) Discard 8069 Carbon Partners 35 – 70 Development of green-waste facility, Dandenong Renewable energy facility, Dandenong Community & Other Services (Personal & Other) Electricity, Gas & Water (Electricity Supply) Discard 8830 Xstrata Coal Australia Pty Ltd 100 Mt Owen coal mine expansion, 19 km NE of Singleton Mt Owen washplant upgrade, 19 km NE of Singleton Mining (Coal) Manufacturing (Chemicals) Discard 9428 Energy Resources Of 27 – 51 Ranger Laterite Uranium processing plant Ranger laterite uranium treatment plant and radiometric sorter Manufacturing (Metal Products) Mining (Other) Discard B. Ambiguous information 4042 CRC Clean Power 20 – 50 Pilot plant to reduce moisture levels in brown coal (to decrease Greenhouse emissions) Unchanged Electricity, Gas & Water (Electricity Supply) Finance, Property & Business Services (Business Services) Discard 4293 Hydro 17 Flood capacity upgrades to dams on the Unchanged Electricity, Gas & Water (Electricity Supply) Electricity, Gas & Water (Water Supply & Drainage) Discard (Continued on next page)
TABLE A1.4 (Continued) PROJECTS THAT CHANGE INDUSTRY Record no. Company Lifetime cost ($m) Action Initial Subsequent Initial Subsequent (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) 7333 Stanwell Corp / McArthur Coal 1,000 – 1,700 Coke manufacturing plant, Rockhampton Unchanged Mining (Coal) Manufacturing (Chemicals) Discard 8254 Xstrata Coal Australia Pty Ltd 66 – 110 Redevelopment of Mine, Boroloola, Unchanged Manufacturing (Metal Products) Mining (Metal Ores) Retain 8867 Gas n/a Wallumbilla pipeline – Columboola to Wallumbila Unchanged Electricity, Gas & Water (Pipeline & Other Transport) Transport & Storage (Pipeline & Other Transport) Discard 9463 Australian Pipeline Trust n/a Construction of a gas plant at Wadeye Unchanged Transport & Storage (Pipeline & Other Transport) Electricity, Gas & (Electricity Supply) Retain 9663 Poseidon Nickel n/a Construction of “fast start” nickel concentrator, Mt Windarra mine Unchanged Manufacturing (Metal Ores) Mining (Metal Ores) Discard 8344 Agricultural Equity Investments 200 – 120 Plans to build integrated cattle feedlot, ethanol plant and biomass power station, Deniliquin, NSW Construction of ethanol plant and biomass power station, neighbouring the cattle feedlot at Moira Station, Riverina district Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing (Agriculture) Electricity, Gas & (Electricity Supply) Retain
TABLE A1.8 COST CHANGES AND PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS: ESTIMATES OF PROBIT MODELS Variable Equation A1 A2 A3 Intercept -0.806 (0.580) -0.922 (0.588) -0.809 (0.583) Value ($’00m) -0.210 (0.126) -0.191 (0.129) -0.210 (0.127) Log age 0.645 (0.209) 0.666 (0.209) 0.647 (0.207) Year to End Returns 0.830 (0.552) 0.884 (0.554) 0.832 (0.552) Lifetime Cost Change - 0.657 (0.452) - Annualised Cost Change - - 0.021 (0.529) Dummies for Starting State (Base = Possible) Consideration 0.548 (0.449) 0.601 (0.459) 0.549 (0.450) ConsiderationValue -0.048 (0.171) -0.059 (0.173) -0.048 (0.171) Committed 0.916 (0.536) 1.017 (0.536) 0.918 (0.537) CommittedValue 0.586 (0.222) 0.583 (0.226) 0.586 (0.221) Dummy for Industry (Base = Electricity, Gas and Water) Mining Sector 0.269 (0.413) 0.156 (0.419) 0.266 (0.424) MiningValue 0.349 (0.146) 0.405 (0.176) 0.349 (0.146) Summary Statistics McFadden R-square 0.28 0.30 0.28 Akaike Info criterion 0.750 0.746 0.763 Schwarz criterion 0.947 0.963 0.980 criterion 0.830 0.833 0.851 LR statistic [p-value] 37.808 [<0.001] 40.42 [<0.000] 37.810 [<0.000] Note: have been deflated by the CPI to March 2001 dollars. Cost changes are logarithmic.