Minutes Day Ahead Auction Project Team Meeting No. 7 Date/Time: Wednesday 14 June 2017, 10.00 am | Thursday 15 June 2017, 9:00 am Location: Level 10, 10 Eagle Street, Brisbane Attendees: Project team John Jamieson, APA Diedre McEntee, APLNG Leon Devaney, Central Petroleum Andrew O’Farrell, Origin Matt Sherwell, Santos^ Erin Bledsoe, Kevin Ly Snowy Hydro (Day 1) Nicholas Pope, specialist technical advisor Guests Andrew Zancanaro, Jemena (Day 1) GMRG Nicole Dodd, analyst Katherine Lowe, GMRG senior technical advisor Sandra Gamble, GMRG facilitator ^by telephone (Day 1) Apologies: Jeff Cooke, SEAGas Tom Walker, specialist technical advisor Kevin Ly, Snowy Hydro (Day 2) Purpose: Reference: Auction Product Design DAA.7.20170614
nominations, and operationally may compress more or less than shippers have nominated. 7 Scenario testing The team tested scenarios throughout discussing the product to be auctioned, and this discussion has been minuted in Agenda Item 2. The majority of this discussion is captured in Appendix C. 8 Break N/A N/A N/A 9 Scenario testing (continued discussion) See Agenda Item 7. 10 Project team road map The team noted the GMRG will progress procuring an expert on auction design. The team decided to move their next meeting scheduled in Sydney for Wednesday 28 June to Thursday 29 June. All – send schedule of leave to GMRG admin. 11 N/A N/A N/A 12 Next meetings The next meeting is to be a meeting on Thursday 29 July 2017, 10am-3pm in Sydney. Appendix A – Interaction with the NEM Information flows D-7 D-4 D-1 Gas Day (D) Weather forecast Uncertain weather forecast (indicating electricity demand and renewable generators output). This is becoming increasingly volatile with increasing intermittent generators. Weather forecast improves in certainty as get closer to the day. NEM process Generators indicate availability for the Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (PASA), which indicates supply and demand balance. Proposed – extended dispatch as part of the Peak Supply Guarantee. Proposed industry conference as part of the Peak Supply Guarantee if a lack of reserve (LOR) condition has been forecast in the NEM, to assess gas supplies for generation. If unable to reduce the LOR, there may Pre-dispatch at 12noon Generators can only bid in NEM in good faith, ie. for GPG only if they can commit they do have gas available. The bidding process for generators will depend on their Dispatch
be jurisdictional intervention. own business model. GPG actions in gas industry May provide forecast nominations to pipeline operator Nominations made to pipeline operator (made in good faith by contract provisions) Renominate to pipeline operators if now (or no longer) dispatched in NEM. Appendix B – How can the interruptible product be improved? Category Improvements Decreasing the uncertainty of bumped if an auction purchaser has nominated against their secured capacity The team considered that the following information would be useful in assessing the likelihood that the auction product would be bumped: Natural Gas Services Bulletin Board data – Forecast flows (existing), actual flows (existing), historical information (existing), large users actual flows (Phase 2)*, LNG flows (existing) Material changes to capacity and flow intraday 1)* Weather reports, electricity forecasts including term and medium term PASA. After nominations – the quantity available for auction Provisional and intraday schedules Charges for services (GTAs) STTM and DWGM demand Actual interruptions of the product historically** Reduce the impact of bumped, or options to manage the risk of being bumped. Note, the market already manages this when they purchase interruptible products, for example through contractual arrangements, or flexible options. The auction buyers will only be required to pay the capacity charge if they are not interrupted. If the pipeline has capacity, auction buyers will have the option to buy an as available service if they are bumped. The team considered various scheduling and intraday options for the prioritisation of different products, as detailed in Appendix C, with a view as to how this could improve the interruptible product, and how this would interact with existing rights. Reduce the probability of being bumped, or reduce the likelihood of being bumped The changing market, including with the incoming Peak Supply Guarantee, may impact this probability. The team has deferred consideration of options to reduce the probability of being bumped until the details of this have been confirmed. *The Natural Gas Services Bulletin Board has incoming changes that were recommended as part of the AEMC’s East Coast Gas Review. These will come in two phases, depending on if a law change is required before the changed can be effected.