General averaged across the landscape of a PSA. Instability in the atmosphere over a PSA. Dryness in the atmosphere over a PSA. Vapor pressure deficit Numbers of ignitions concentrated in a 24hour period in a PSA. Lightning sources Human sources Note on Interpreting the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product: Because it is not site specific, the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast is not intended to be interpreted as a fire weather forecast or a fire behavior forecast. It is not intended to be used for gauging safety due to fire activity. It does not necessarily reflect extreme conditions in different fuel types within any PSA. Rather, the 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Forecast simply depicts the daily risk of fires growing to meet the ‘significant’ size criteria in each PSA based on historical combinations of past contributing factors. Regional Preparedness Level Forecast Daily Preparedness Level for the Northwest geographic area is determined by the NWCC center manager and/or Operations Manager with guidance from the NWCC Predictive Services unit. That guidance is on objective assessment of the current demand and forecasts for future need of fire management resources from NWCC’s Fire Activity Forecast. Analysis of historical usage of fire management resources since 2004 was blended with numbers of reported ignitions and resulting large fires to model resource demand when similar conditions repeat themselves in the future. NWCC’s daily Regional Preparedness Level Forecast is available at: Monthly and Seasonal Significant Fire Potential Outlooks The Monthly and Seasonal significant Fire Potential outlook identifies geographic regions across the US likely to expect average, or below-average significant fire load during the following four months. Significant fires are defined as those severe enough to require mobilization of firefighting resources from outside the area the fire originates.
121.571 Kosmos RAWS 451105 DNR 46.524 - 122.190 2100 Hager Creek RAWS 451115 USFS 46.564 - 121.628 3600 Orr Creek RAWS 451919 USFS 46.354 - 121.604 3000 662 Stehekin RAWS 452121 NPS 48.347 - 120.720 1230 Appendix 3 Methodology for Verification of a Red Flag Warning issued for Moderate Breeze and Low Humidity For Wind and Low RH episodes, Red Flag events will be considered to have occurred when Red Flag criteria are achieved at the following combination of stations: Zone 649: Any two stations within the zone, usually Hoquiam and Quillayute Zone 650: Any single station within the zone – or - Quillayute ASOS Zone 651: At Minot Peak RAWS – or – both Shelton and Hoquiam ASOSs Zone 652: Any one station within the zone and the Ellis Mtn RAWS Zone 653: Any two stations within the zone Zone 654: Any two stations within the zone (including Olympia ASOS) Zone 655: Any one station within the zone (including Olympia ASOS) – or – any two of the following Shelton ASOS, Minot Peak RAWS and Hoquiam ASOS Zone 656: Any two stations under 1500 feet within Skagit, Snohomish or Whatcom Counties (including Abbottsford, BC) Zone 657: Any two stations under 1500 feet within King or Pierce County, and east of Puget Sound Zone 658: Any station within the zone – and – one of the following sites: Mt. Baker avalanche site, Marblemount, Fire Training Academy, or SMP Zone 659: Any two stations within the zone Zone 661: Any NFDRS station within the zone (not followed within 12 by the start of a wetting rain) Zone 662: At Stehekin RAWS
684 NCSB R 452030 USFS 48.4 - 120.14 1650 684 Oroville R 452039 BLM 48.9 - 119.49 1360 684 Nespelem R 452009 BIA 48.2 - 119.02 1782 684 Douglas Ingram Rdg R 452035 USFS 48.1 - 120.10 3460 684 Kramer R 452040 BIA 48.2 - 119.52 2720 685 Leecher R 452020 USFS 48.2 - 120.00 5019 685 First Butte R 452006 USFS 48.6 - 120.11 5500 685 Aeneas R 452001 DNR 48.7 - 119.62 5185 686 Midnite Mine R 452913 BLM 47.9 - 118.09 2693 686 Pal Moore Orchard R 452915 USFS 48.3 - 117.43 3120 686 Kettle R 452916 NPS 48.6 - 118.12 1310 686 Tacoma R 453413 USFS 48.4 - 117.43 3300 686 Little Pend Oreille R 453416 FWS 48.2 - 117.43 2020 686 Deer Mountain R 453412 USFS 48.8 - 117.45 3300 686 Wellpinit R 452918 BIA 47.8 - 118.10 2240 686 Cedar Creek Orchard R 452917 USFS 48.9 - 117.49 4300 686 Teepee Seed Orchard R 453414 USFS 48.6 - 117.48 3280 686 Flowery Trail R 453145 USFS 48.3 - 117.41 2680 686 Kettle Falls R 452916 USFS 48.5 - 118.11 1310 686 Fairchild 36 RQF R BLM 48.4 - 117.36 2450 687 R 452038 USFS 48.5 - 119.21 3600
Seasonal Outlooks: Beginning in April, the meteorologist provides a monthly outlook for Washington’s fire season. This outlook is normally published during the first week of the month and continues through October. Accompanying video or webinar style briefings are available as needed to any agency requesting one. Outlooks are also available to media or various communications staff. This product is carefully coordinated with our regional weather partners. Fire Staff Training: We provide support (either full course or individual units) for S-130, S- 190, S-290, and S-390. We are also available for RT-130s as needed.