High volume of sales through travel agencies. Full-service airlines will behave differently depending on whether they are operating at or away from their hub airport(s). Any operation at the hub will have more schedule flexibility, and will rarely consider alternative destinations. Away from the hub, the airline will be less flexible regarding schedule. (b) Low-cost carriers A low-cost carrier (LCC), ‘low-fare’ or ‘budget’ airline is determined by its target market. Aiming at a certain market segment determines a wide set of differentiating characteristics with respect to or regional carriers. The LCC primary target market is passengers sensitive to price, offering the basic product, transportation, at the lowest possible fare. To compensate for the loss of revenue by tight ticket pricing, LCCs may charge for extras like food, priority boarding and seat selection, luggage, etc. These are the main LCC characteristics: Low fares, fewer traditional passenger services; Low yield, high volume; Low overhead cost (outsourcing); Bypass global distribution systems (e.g. Amadeus, Sabre, etc.) through internet distribution; Simplified ticket categories; Bundled and unbundled services; Short average flight lengths, high frequency; Congested hub airports avoided, preferring less congested airports. Low-cost carriers compete on prices and frequencies on short- and medium-range routes, with traffic, offering very few different ticket prices, sold mainly by telephone or internet, giving a minimal service for a low price. The reduction of the unit cost is obtained not only by offering fewer services to the passenger, but also through a better utilisation of their productive means, minimising the diversity of aircraft they use (generally all their aircraft belong to the same model) and achieving greater flying hours per day (by reducing greatly the turnaround times). (c) Regional Airlines These companies specialise in passenger transport in, generally, short-range routes, and for this reason, very often on domestic or intra-EU flights. They operate fleets of aircraft of the so-called ‘regional’ models, with planes of fewer than 100 seats. Some of them operate in an independent way, but the majority operate as franchisees or with some type of agreement with a full-service airline. (d) Charter
Regulation 261 - passengers’ compensation Current Regulation 261 implementation Inclusion of provision of spare capacity on flights for passengers missing connection Enhanced allocation of delay causes Airlines Direct impact on metrics assessed in Vista also affect the behaviour of the stakeholders when dealing with delay, e.g. tactical recovery of delay or strategic assignment of buffers in schedules R1 Emission trading scheme - Directive 2008/101 and ICAO resolution A39-3 Medium carbon offset price High carbon offset price Airlines Emission charges represent an increase in cost leading to impacts on some strategies to deal with delay, e.g. dynamic cost indexing R2 3. Preliminary business foreground factors considered Factor Possible values Primary stakeholder affected Possible impact Factor Id Area Fuel Fuel price Low High Airlines Direct impact on metrics assessed in Vista Impact on some behaviour of stakeholders, e.g., flight plan definition or tactical delay recovery trade-offs B1 (b) Preliminary background regulatory and business factors considered Table 4 and Table 5 present a list of example regulatory and business background factors considered in Vista, to be refined and extended in subsequent work. 4. Preliminary regulatory background factors considered
Factor Possible values Primary stakeholder affected Possible impact Factor Id Regulation 549/2004 - Single European Sky Framework Regulation Low No FAB free-routing inside FIR Medium FABs free-routing inside FABs High Complete integration – Single European Sky O-D Airlines Higher integration allows the operation of the European air traffic management network to act as a single entity Shorter routes can be selected with impact on some metrics Expected cost reduction and increased cooperation between ANSPs leading to a reduction in ATFM regulations R3 5. Preliminary business background factors considered Factor Possible values Primary stakeholder affected Possible impact Factor Id Area Technology uptake DCI uptake Hub airlines in operations to-from the hub Hub airlines in their whole network and selection of other carriers and flights All airlines Airlines Reduction of operational costs and delay B2 Time-based operations uptake Medium High Airlines Airports Increase capacity at airports Reduction of ATFM and tactical delay B3
Passenger reaccommodation tools uptake Hub airline operations at hubs Hub airlines operations in whole network and selection of other flights Airlines Reduction of operational costs B4 A-CDM implementation Following established A-CDM implementation plan and timeframe Airlines Airports Reduction of delay propagation at airports B5 E-AMAN implementation Medium High - including prioritisation ANSPs Airports Airlines Reduction arrival delay and prioritisation arrivals B6 Remote towers No Small airports and medium airports Expected cost reduction and loss of anchoring of ANSPs B7 Virtual centres No Yes ANSPs Expected cost reduction and possible transition towards centre consolidation B8 Drones / RPAS Medium demand High demand Airlines Potential disruption with new entrants in the ANSP market leading to lower system capacity B9 Machine learning and deep learning Medium High Airlines Optimisation of operations under disruption B10
Development of high-speed trains Low High Airlines trains have a dual effect: - direct competition with airlines for some routes (decreased demand); - increased catchment for some airports B13 Rise of ecological travel demand Yes (very high No (current Airlines Airports Possible reduction of passenger demand B14 Development of virtual reality meetings and tourism No Yes Airlines Decrease on demand for business (VR meetings) and leisure (VR tourism) travel. I.e. reduction of passenger demand. B15 Traffic volatility and unpredictability Current High ANSPs Airlines Financial instability for B16 Environmental awareness Low Medium High Airlines Higher environmental awareness lead to reduced demand for air transport B17
(a) Single stage Covers all the phases in one event-driven model. Different agents make decisions at different timescales. model with high level of detail. of agents is naturally taken into account. The computational load is heavy and calibration is difficult due to the high number of agents. (b) with meso-model This is a three stage model covering the three execution phases and adapting the detail required for each. A macro-economic model is used to define demand and capacity. Individual flight schedules and passenger itineraries are then generated. Finally, a mobility model is used to represent the and tactical execution of these itineraries. The effect of different factors and tools / technologies / procedures are explicitly modelled at a European level for each phase. results are directly obtained from the model. The level of detail of the model is adapted for the different execution stages. The mobility model requires individual flight schedules and passenger itineraries that can be difficult to generate and validate for future timeframes (2035, 2050) due to the high level of uncertainty. Due to these uncertainties, the model might require a high number of executions to obtain results that are consolidated.