APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice topic Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car trips 3 times more trips on PT 81% of trips by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns 800MW of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of these in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, trade and business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW extra required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD traffic 11-15% shift in household locations 13-17% shift in job locations 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW required for 3250 avoided $632m annual Net impact of per year 32% improvement in access to services $8.1b
24% fewer PT trips Average journey takes 16 minutes Lower marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement use $6.9 9.7b additional investment needed economic benefit Fuel excise impact of Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Fleet Street 28% of by PT 91-93% fewer cars needed 54% higher average road Average journey takes 18 minutes 12-14% shift in household locations 14-15% shift in job locations Lower marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement 50% increase in GWh $5.2b additional investment needed 3781 DALYs avoided $735m annual economic benefit Net impact of $12.8b per year Fuel excise impact of Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 7% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Hydrogen Highway 22% increase in road speeds 8% more car trips Average journey takes 16 minutes Assumed similar to Private Drive 147% increase in GWh (for hydrogen from electrolysis) $8-14.5b additional investment needed 3430 avoided $667m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 27% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Slow Lane 39% increase in average road speed 43% fewer cars needed 22% trips by PT Average journey takes 16 minutes 11% shift in household locations 12% in job locations 23% increase in GWh $2.2b additional investment needed 1388 DALYs avoided $270m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of Decrease in vehicle registration of -$2b 8% improvement in access to services Likely <2% GSP growth
Compared to 2031 base case High Speed 20% of trips by PT 38% more walking 93% cars needed 4% trips overall Assumed similar to Fleet Street 37% increase in GWh $2.1b additional investment needed 3099 DALYs avoided $603m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$4b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$3.4b 7% improvement in access to services $10 billion (2%) increase in GSP
APPENDIX A (continued) Transport engineering The design of existing road infrastructure is largely expected to be sufficient as automated vehicles are currently being designed to operate on most roads without the need for modifications. Instead, in-vehicle systems are used to `read' our current infrastructure, including lines, signs and traffic lights with a variety of sensors, including cameras, radar and LIDAR. The vehicle then determines the correct behaviour around these objects using an on-board computer to bring together and interpret the various inputs. However, in the to medium term, as the technology is still in development, clear and consistent infrastructure (e.g. lines and signs) and approaches to road operations (e.g. maintenance) are useful for enabling operations of automated vehicles on our roads. While heavy vehicle platooning is seen as a significant benefit of automation, its logic is premised on achieving two benefits: a reduction in labour costs and a reduction in fuel costs. In an automated and zero emissions vehicle future with no drivers and low fuel costs, the benefits of platooning could be largely eliminated. This calls into question whether automated heavy vehicle platooning will occur, unless we see the development of automated vehicles without zero emissions technology, or vice versa. ICT infrastructure At a minimum level, existing ICT infrastructure is largely expected to be sufficient, where minimum is defined as the least amount of ICT infrastructure required to ensure safe automated vehicle operation on critical Victorian roads while minimising over-investment or technical obsolescence risks. There are opportunities for vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) technology to improve network performance of automated vehicles, at an estimated cost of $40m for the minimum scenario and $204m for the optimum scenario ($2018), though these would need further scoping and trials before they were implemented. Connections to mobile networks are not a base requirement for most automated vehicles to operate. However, the breadth of mobile network coverage may limit their reliability and cooperation in some areas of Victoria, especially outside of urban areas. The cost for upgrading these facilities to a minimum level of coverage is estimated at $76-109m ($2018), while optimal coverage of all sealed roads in Victoria is estimated at $1.1-1.7b ($2018). not necessary to enable the introduction of automated vehicles on Victorian roads, central operations/traffic management systems could require radical change in order to optimise the deployment and movement of automated vehicles by introducing machine learning or even artificial intelligence into traffic management. International markets