APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car trips 3 times more trips on PT 81% of by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns 800MW of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, trade and travel-related business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of -$8.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD traffic 24% fewer PT trips Average journey takes 16 minutes 11-15% in household locations 13-17% shift in job locations Lower marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW required for use $6.9 9.7b additional investment needed 3250 DALYs avoided $632m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 32% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Fleet Street 28% of trips by PT 91-93% fewer cars needed 54% higher average road speed 12-14% shift in household locations 14-15% shift in job locations 50% increase in GWh $5.2b additional investment needed 3781 DALYs avoided $735m annual economic benefit Net impact of $12.8b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b 7% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP
Average journey takes 18 minutes marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b Hydrogen Highway 22% increase in road speeds 8% more car Average journey takes 16 minutes Assumed similar to Private Drive 147% increase in GWh (for hydrogen from electrolysis) $8-14.5b additional investment needed 3430 DALYs avoided $667m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 27% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Slow Lane 39% increase in average road speed 43% fewer cars needed 22% by PT Average journey 16 minutes 11% shift in household locations 12% in job locations 23% increase in GWh $2.2b additional investment needed 1388 avoided $270m annual economic benefit Net impact of -$5.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$2.3b Decrease in vehicle registration of -$2b 8% improvement in access to services Likely <2% GSP growth Compared to 2031 base case High Speed 20% of trips by PT 38% more walking trips 93% fewer cars needed 4% fewer trips overall Assumed similar to Fleet Street 37% increase in GWh $2.1b additional investment needed 3099 DALYs avoided $603m annual economic benefit Net impact of $8.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$4b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$3.4b 7% improvement in access to services $10 billion (2%) increase in GSP