Access to services Automated and zero emissions vehicles are likely to improve people's access to services such as education, health care and activity centres. Regions that currently have low levels of access to services, which also tend to have high numbers of people on low incomes, have the most to gain from automated vehicles. Health Automated vehicles could reduce road deaths by up to 94% or 400 per year in 2046, while eliminating vehicle exhaust emissions could deliver an annual health dividend to Victorians worth between $270 and $735 million. Environment and Zero emissions vehicles would eliminate all vehicle tailpipe emissions, with the potential reduction in greenhouse gas emissions up to 27 million tonnes in 2046 – the equivalent of around 25% of Victoria's total greenhouse gas emissions in 2015. Waste infrastructure would also need to adapt to new waste streams and patterns, with electric vehicle batteries posing a challenge for the future. Land use Middle ring and suburbs with good access to the freeway network and arterial roads could become more attractive places to live and work. The way Victoria's neighbourhoods and streets are designed could also be reimagined, particularly if there is a large take-up of shared automated vehicle services. If no-one owns a car, parking could be relegated to fleet depots in industrial areas with up to 96% of parking space in populated areas potentially repurposed for recreation, pedestrian use, cycling or parks. Energy If our vehicle fleet moves towards battery electric, Victoria's electricity consumption will increase by between 23 and 56%, depending on the mix of vehicles and zero emissions technologies. Electricity distribution networks, which carry electricity to local areas, are the most exposed to capacity bottlenecks. ICT Our existing and planned IT infrastructure is largely sufficient to support the introduction of automated vehicles in Victoria, but further investment in connecting vehicles to the world around them could bring more benefits. Economic The economic benefits of automated vehicles be worth up to $14.9 billion per year to the Victorian economy in 2046. Financial We expect automated and zero emissions vehicles to be cheaper over their lifecycle than a traditional car for the 97% of Victorians who drive fewer than 43,000 kilometres a year. It should also be cheaper for most Victorians to use an on-demand automated vehicle than to own their own car.
What would you do on a driverless car trip of less than 30 minutes? of more than 30 minutes? Use the internet for leisure (e.g. Facebook or online shopping) 43% 49% Work (including using the internet for work) 26% 29% Watch TV or movies 13% 33% Sleep 13% 30% Just relax and do nothing 64% 55% Other 38% 40% Activity Percentage of respondents who consider using driverless cars for this activity Commuting 39% Work trips during business hours 23% School run 17% Unaccompanied school run 13% Running errands 64% Social outings 70% Long trips or holidays 45% None of the 18% Other 13% Imagine a future where you own your own driverless car. To what extent might you do the following? Definitely Might Definitely would not Have your driverless car drop you off, then park somewhere nearby for current parking rates, so it's nearby when you need it 21% 50% 29% Have your driverless car drop you off, then send it elsewhere to avoid paying for parking where you are, before calling it back later 42% 38% 20% Generate an income for yourself by letting other passengers use your driverless car when you are not using it 15% 35% 49% Approximately 58% of people aged 55–64 said they currently travel by car for their commute, either as a driver or a passenger, but only 42% would consider travelling in a driverless car for these trips. Comparatively, 67% of people aged under 54 would consider travelling in a driverless car for their commute. However, a majority of people aged over 65 were open to using a driverless vehicle to run errands (56%) and attend social outings (58%).
APPENDIX A: SUMMARY OF IMPACTS BY SCENARIO Technical advice Transport modelling Land use modelling Energy Environment and population health Financial analysis Socioeconomic impacts Scenario Compared to 2015 2046 base case 37% more car 3 times more trips on PT 81% of trips by car, 19% by PT Average journey time is 20 minutes 2.5m more jobs and 3.4m more people Most growth in Melbourne suburbs Regional growth mainly in towns of additional dispatchable generation required NPV of $588m investment needed Current DALYs due to emissions of 5425 96% of these in metro area and most for people with high or medium SES Current trends of vehicle registration, licensing and accidents continue 70% of population has sufficient access to services 2.2m jobs forecast to be in transport, and travel-related business Compared to 2046 base case Electric Avenue Virtually no change from base case Assumed similar to base case 51% increase in GWh ~6200MW required for use $6.4–8.8b additional investment needed 3632 DALYs avoided $706m annual economic benefit Net impact of -$8.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Increase in TAC revenue of $70m 10% improvement in access to services No change in GSP Private Drive 8% more car trips Slower CBD traffic 24% fewer PT trips Average journey 16 minutes 11-15% shift in household locations 13-17% shift in job locations marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement 56% increase in GWh ~6700MW extra required for use $6.9 9.7b additional investment needed 3250 DALYs avoided $632m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 32% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Street 28% of by PT 91-93% fewer cars needed 54% higher average road speed 12-14% shift in household locations 14-15% in job locations 50% increase in GWh $5.2b additional investment needed 3781 avoided $735m annual economic benefit Net impact of $12.8b per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b 7% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP
Average journey takes 18 minutes Lower marginal utility of travel time doesn't result in greater movement Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b Hydrogen Highway 22% increase in road speeds 8% more car trips Average journey 16 minutes Assumed similar to Private Drive 147% increase in GWh (for hydrogen from electrolysis) $8-14.5b additional investment needed 3430 avoided $667m annual economic benefit Net impact of per year Fuel excise impact of -$6.5b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$5.6b 27% improvement in access to services $14.9 billion (2%) increase in GSP Slow Lane 39% increase in average road 43% cars needed 22% trips by PT Average journey takes 16 minutes 11% shift in household locations 12% shift in job locations 23% increase in GWh $2.2b additional investment needed 1388 DALYs avoided $270m annual economic benefit Net impact of -$5.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$2.3b Decrease in vehicle registration of -$2b 8% improvement in access to services Likely <2% GSP growth Compared to 2031 base case High Speed 20% of trips by PT 38% more walking trips 93% fewer cars needed 4% fewer trips overall Assumed similar to Fleet Street 37% increase in GWh $2.1b additional investment needed 3099 avoided $603m annual economic benefit Net impact of $8.1b per year Fuel excise impact of -$4b Decrease in TAC revenue of -$3.4b 7% improvement in access to services $10 billion (2%) increase in GSP