relationships with the Chamber of Commerce, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Environment, the Central Bank of Timor-Leste and other banks including ANZ and Bank Mandiri, and microfinance institutions Moris Rasik and Tuba Rai Metin (TMR), and the business sector. Mandate – Under its four year strategy, released in March 2013, the IFC will continue to focus on private sector development. It will keep working on the business environment, particularly access to finance and barriers to entrepreneurship, and to encourage private involvement in infrastructure development such as ports and airports. The IFC will: Assist AusAID to better understand the economy of Timor-Leste, the perceptions of key stakeholders, and the potential for economic policy reform to contribute to economic growth. Look for opportunities to make a contribution to an economic regulatory framework that supports sustainable economic development and poverty reduction. further contributions will be considered in future years. Inclusive Finance for an Economy (INFUSE) Jointly executed by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and the United Nations Capital Development Fund (UNCDF) Capabilities – it has expertise in banking and financial services. Relevant relationships and understanding – it started in 2008 and has working level relationships with the Central Bank of Timor-Leste (BCTL), microfinance institutions Moris Rasik and Tuba Rai Outcome two of the Governance for Development Program is for the government to make decisions about economic policies that support sustainable economic development and poverty reduction. As part of this outcome, AusAID will work to build its own understanding of economic policy priorities for Timorese decision-makers. It will also decide whether to work on select economic policy priorities. INFUSE will: assist AusAID to better understand the economy of Timor-Leste, the perceptions of key stakeholders, and the potential for economic policy reform to contribute to economic growth. AusAID recently extended its arrangement to fund INFUSE at no cost until June 2014. A design process for GfD’s future engagement will be conducted in the coming months. Future funding allocations will be determined through this process.
GfD Progress towards End of Program Outcomes: Indicators and Evaluative Questions Pillar One: Fiscal and Economic Policy Outcomes sought After 12 months, what will be the indicators that GfD is on track to achieve these outcomes? After 24 months After 36 months After 48 months At end of program what will be the indicators that GfD has achieved the desired outcomes? The government has a fiscal framework that supports sustainable government finances, economic growth and meets social needs. The government makes decisions about economic policy that supports sustainable economic development and poverty reduction Analysis is in place about key fiscal and economic policies. Analytical gaps in the economic and social space have been identified Government ministries are seeking to work with AusAID, and others, on developing analysis of economic policy There is capacity in relevant ministries to utilise policy analysis and advice. Those same ministries now have the capacity to policy analysis and advice into the Agencies supported by AusAID can identify the influence they now have around economic analysis and advice utilised by the GoTL decision makers. and high quality analysis is reflected in GoTL has a budget framework that supports sustainable government finances and poverty reduction for men, women and PWD Economic policy decisions are made within a framework that encourages sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction for men, women and PWD
political systems. GoTL is consulting widely on economic policy advice and analysis economic decision making What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point (in preparation for the next phase) Is the analysis still relevant to emerging economic initiatives? What does the analysis suggest about focus areas and strategies Is AusAID working in timely and responsive ways that remain relevant to economic reform and policy development? Is the using the advice being provided? Who within the is listening to and the analysis Are changes in economic decision making being reflected in new policies and changed Is implementation of the new framework contributing to poverty reduction for men, women and PWD? Is better economic policy supporting increased attention to poor men, and PWD? Is the economic policy framework able to be sustained within ET social and political environment?
Central agencies are working to develop policy to consolidate and sustain system changes What evaluative questions be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions be important to ask at this point (in preparation for the next phase) What are the barriers to central agencies engaging more with Line Ministries on policy, spending and bottleneck issues? And, vice versa (i.e., Line Ministries How comprehensive are these activities in terms of more effective service delivery? Are these activities changing the way decisions are made? Will the changes sought lead to service delivery How is the analysis of quality of spending impacting upon How have improved budget processes and/or improved spending analysis contributed to changes in service delivery for men, women and PWD? Are men, women and PWD receiving better services? Who has contributed to the changes? What were the most important influences? What limitations to effective service delivery for men, women and PWD remain and why?
engaging up)? Why are these barriers in place? What else needs to change beyond these areas for services to be effectively delivered? about spending? Are Line Ministries and central ministries able to identify and work together other barriers to service delivery? Intermediate outcome After 12 months, what will be the indicators that GfD is on track to achieve these outcomes? After 24 months 36 months After 48 months At the end of phase 1 of the program Government and stakeholders contribute to politically possible and technically sound solutions to issues relevant to Pillar One or Pillar Two. Key partners interest in engaging in policy debate and influence. Key partners have increased capacity to undertake and communicate analysis and research on ET policy issues There are an increased number of informed voices publically to the debate on There are a diverse range of informed voices publicly to the debate on economic There are a diverse range of informed voices contributing publicly to the debate on economic policy and direction and/or service delivery
economic policy and direction and/ or service delivery. GoTL have a stronger of the approach that AusAID to its support. policy and direction and/or service delivery. What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions would be important to ask at this point What evaluative questions be important to ask at this point (in preparation for the next phase) Are the right partners? What skills and capacities do they need to be effective agents of influence in What is the reach of this communication? Are agencies and Line Ministries using this information and analysis to inform policy? In what way is AusAID support for partners influencing the reputation and legitimacy of AusAID as a Is the GoTL willing to listen to new voices? What else needs to change for government to be willing to respond to informed voices? Are these public debates influencing policy Are these public debates influencing policy development to a degree which is contributing to changed economic policy and direction and/or changed approaches to service delivery? Are the public debates focused on the needs and experiences of poor men, women and PWD?
policy debates? development partner in Timor-Leste? Pillar Changes in AusAID Outcomes sought After 12 months, what will be the indicators that GfD is on track to achieve these outcomes? After 24 months After 36 months After 48 months At end of program what will be the indicators that GfD has achieved the desired outcomes? AusAID understands central government systems as they relate to service delivery and uses that knowledge in its programs. AusAID has integrated policy positions on the budget, civil service systems, statistics, public financial management and uses this policy positions in its engagement with the Timorese government. in policy positions between AusAID program are identified AusAID sectoral programs have a basic of central ministries’ systems, processes AusAID understands the operating environment state) and invests in regular analysis of the political economy AusAID has used the budget strategy to engage with the GoTL in a consistent and coherent manner. AusAID sectoral programs understand government expenditure and use this knowledge to engage more effectively than previously with counterparts. AusAID sectoral programs have a detailed understanding of central ministries’ administrative systems, processes and There are coherent policy positions across the AusAID program in relation to budget, civil service systems, statistics, and public financial AusAID program analytical efforts are coordinated Regular program review and redesign indicates of existing assistance. Programs of health, education and water and sanitation confidently and persuasively interacting with central government agencies in the areas of budget negotiation, procurement, and human resource management. AusAID is considered a reliable, responsive development partner The AusAID program is considered by government and non-government stakeholders to be relevant to the Timor-Leste context.
N: Risk matrix Risk (what will prevent you chieving the objective/s?) Existing Controls (what's currently in Risk rating with existing controls in Is risk rating acceptable? Y/N Proposed Treatments (If no further treatment required or available, please explain why) Person Responsible for Implementing Treatment/s Implementation Date for Proposed Treatment/s Target rating when Proposed Treatments are in place (refer to matrix) (refer to matrix) Risk Rating (refer to matrix) Consequence (refer to matrix) Likelihood (refer to matrix) Risk Rating to matrix) The government of Timor-Leste undergoes changes diverting it from its commitment to poverty alleviation through the SDP This risk is outside AusAID control Major Unlikely Moderate Yes undergoes civil unrest which diverts both government and other stakeholders from a focus on poverty alleviation This risk is outside AusAID control Possible High Yes Solutions to key service delivery and economic challenges that address the needs of the poor in Timor-Leste are not able to be developed with current government resources and capabilities. the GFD program is focused upon of solutions that are within the context Major Possible High Yes There are changes in the significant decision-makers in Timor-Leste and GfD is not positioned to engage with these changes GfD is designed to regularly update its of context and key decision makers and be Unlikely Moderate Yes
able to respond to changes in that context. Influential ideas and actors in that are contrary to GfD approach, continue to exert policy influence on the government of Timor-Leste The program will continue to monitor other influences on the of in to different policy and program influences Major Possible High Yes Central agencies ways of working continue to limit opportunity for structural or organisational change. GfD is to work in flexible ways with central agencies to support their capacity and as required Major Possible High Yes Key decisions made by the government of Timor-Leste related to either service delivery or budget and fiscal policy are made without reference to the relevant central agencies where GfD has sought to build capacity and policy ability GfD will work with a range of partners and influential actors, beyond central agencies and Line in order Major Unlikely Moderate Yes
cycle) to primarily carry with Timorese AusAID is unable to maintain the full range of relationships with central agencies which would allow it to respond in a timely way to new policies and government structures such as decentralisation or establishment of new government agencies GfD will prioritise of with central agencies as part of the program strategy. Regular should allow for of gaps and any to change priorities in Possible High Yes AusAID maintains good working relationship with central agencies but is unable to influence them to focus on service delivery GfD will utilise a range of strategies to a focus on effective service delivery. Regular will provide about progress Major Possible High Yes
in this area Central agencies choose to focus on service delivery but other issues such as corruption, lack of capacity or insufficient resources limit their ability to operate in different ways GfD. will maintain updated of central agencies and their ability to take up and maintain new ways of operating Major Likely High No Senior management may need to take up additional issues with government of Timor-Leste in partnership and other high level discussions Senior AusAID management in As required Major Possible High Because of a relationship with central agencies there is a perception that AusAID is meddling or interfering with government of Timor-Leste policy decisions therefore negatively impacting upon both AusAID's relationship in Timor-Leste and the effectiveness of the particular central agency GfD will work on solutions that have strong and where there are to lead and direct the solution Unlikely Moderate Yes The political economy and practicability of Timor-Leste ministries means that central and line agencies are unable to work together for solutions GfD and other AusAID programs will work together to find ways for mutually solutions to be together with line Major Possible High Yes
and central ministries Despite developing effective relationships and/or providing sound technical advice, AusAID fails to influence government decision-making AusAID will seek to work with a range of and partners to influence Regular will check on progress. Severe Possible High Yes The information that AusAID brings forward is considered unpalatable to the government and therefore AusAID influence is minimised AusAID will work with and to develop solutions and policy advice which is in line with of policy and intentions Severe Unlikely High Yes
The information that AusAID brings forward is potentially destabilising for the current government of Timor-Leste AusAID will work with and to develop policy advice and solutions which is in line with of policy and intentions and which to peaceful and sustained for the country Major Unlikely Moderate Yes The information that AusAID brings forward around a fiscal framework is adopted only partly, leading to unsustainable solutions or spending. The program will seek to provide and holistic technical advice, drawing from the best available technical resources. It will attempt to ensure that is provided Major Possible High No ??
in full in a way that is accessible to Information that AusAID brings forward around economic policy is adopted only partly, therefore limiting sustained economic development or failing to reduce poverty The program will seek to provide and holistic technical advice, drawing from the best available technical resources. It will attempt to ensure that is provided in full in a way that is accessible to Major Possible High No ?? The information put forward by AusAID leads to a fiscal or economic framework on Timor-Leste which is unable to be sustained The program will seek to provide technical advice is relevant and to the context of Major Unlikely Moderate Yes
to the program as designed Changes in AusAID management in Timor-Leste undermine support for GfD approach The program approach is clearly outlined in the design document which will be subject to formal AusAID appraisal and approval Possible High No The program will seek to readily communicate its approach internally to AusAID senior management and other stakeholders in order to maintain support for the approach Program management Ongoing Major Possible Change in AusAID in Canberra undermine support for GfD approach The program approach is clearly outlined in the design document which will be subject formal AusAID appraisal and approval Major Possible High No The program will seek to readily communicate its approach internally to AusAID senior management and stakeholders in order to maintain support for the approach Program management Ongoing Major Possible High AusAID budget cuts undermine GfD approach the GfD program will form part of the to support in Possible High No This is beyond the control of the program
AusAID focus on short-term results undermines GfD process of engagement and focus on sustained long-term change The program approach and nature of its work is clearly in the design document which will be subject to AusAID formal approval and appraisal processes Major Possible High No The program will seek to readily communicate its approach internally to AusAID senior management and other stakeholders in order to maintain support for the approach Program management Ongoing Major Unlikely Moderate AusAID is unable to attract a managing contractor with sufficient skills and capacity to implement the GfD approach Selection of the managing will be through AusAID normal tendering processes Unlikely Moderate Yes GfD is unable to attract the right technical and other staff to implement the program as designed Emphasis will be given in the tendering process to a managing who is able to a wide ranging process Major Unlikely Moderate Yes