Appendix 2 details the analysis undertaken, which was shared in detail with both Primary and Secondary head teacher resources groups. This shows that, out of 525 schools: from 2011 to 2012, 194 schools had a drop in pupil number; from 2012 to 2013 the drop was 211 schools; and from 2011 to 2013 there were 88 schools that had a drop in pupil numbers year on year. The primary, secondary and special schools that have received a ‘good’ Ofsted rating have the highest number of falling rolls. This is shortly followed by schools that have a ‘requires improvement’ rating. Some primary schools and only a few secondary and special schools that have received an ‘outstanding’ rating have had a drop in numbers. The most common percentage band drop in pupils across all school phases is 0 - 5%. are 10 schools in all phases with more than a 10% drop in pupil numbers across the two years. However, nine of these have an Ofsted rating of either inadequate or satisfactory/ require improvement. Criteria for Hampshire Schools Policy the analysis above, dialogue with other local authorities and requirements from the Department for Education, the following criteria are proposed for a falling rolls policy : Must have had a falling number on roll for a minimum of 2 years based on the autumn term census Number on roll must have fallen by more than 5% in both of the previous years. Must have an Ofsted rating of good or outstanding. The Ofsted ratings will be taken as at census day in October. The forecast pupil data must show the school is expected to have an increase in pupil numbers by the end of the 3 years (2016/17 to 2017/18 based on a 2014/15 base year) Pupil numbers must also show the school is increasing numbers in future years (2018/19 and 2019/20, based on 2014/15 base year) to ensure sustained growth The data showing schools forecast data is taken from the SCAP return which is a School level capacity return. Local authorities are required to provide data and information on all state-funded primary and secondary schools in their areas. This data was returned to the Education Funding Agency (EFA) in August 2013. The Education Funding Agency runs the annual School Capacity Collection (SCAP).The results are published on the Department for
Appendix 3. School level breakdown School Number of pupils on roll and Ofsted Rating 2011 2012 2013 Ofsted Raring % drop in 2011 - 2012 % drop in 2012 – 2013 AWPU Pupil number drop between 2012 – 2013 5% drop in pupils (pupil no.) Number of pupils to receive top up Total funding (£) / % of budget share Primary School A 230 (S) 214 (S) 196 (G) Good 8.41% 6.96% £3,950 18 10.7 7.3 £28,835 3% Secondary School A 730 (G) 682 (G) 641 (G) Good 6.01% 6.58% £4,315 41 34.1 6.9 £29,773 1% Secondary School B 693 (G) 595 (I) 505 (G) Good 15.13% 14.14% £4,258 90 29.75 60.25 £256,520 9% Secondary school C 838 (G) 781 (G) 722 G) Good 7.55% 6.80% £4,652 59 39.05 19.95 £92,805 3% Total £407,933 **Key – (S) Satisfactory, (G) Good, (I) Inadequate Appendix 4. Forecast pupil numbers
NOR 2013-14 Autumn 13 actual NOR NOR NOR NOR NOR (2 YEARS) Increase from 15/16 to 2016/17 (3 YEARS) Increase from 16/17 to 2017/18 NOR 2018-19 NOR 2018-19 Eligible? Primary School A 196 165 160 163 152 YES +3 NO -11 - NO Secondary School A 641 583 565 552 555 NO -13 YES +3 534 531 NO Secondary School B 505 484 450 427 457 NO -23 YES +30 461 467 YES Secondary school C 722 734 691 697 693 YES +6 NO -4 708 704 NO