adaptation ecosystem processes and climate change as pressure Use of local biodiversity knowledge Targeted collection of folk customs and traditional knowledge Use of citizen science Promote ecosystem thinking among volunteers Create space for BD&ES Reclaim space from grey infrastructure Regional/local ‘red lines’ to prevent loss of ecosystem services vital for CCA Create refugia, reduce fragmentation Increase climate change resilience by reducing pressures not related to climate change Reduce pollution and disturbance Estimate carrying capacity for vital ecosystems and production capacity for their services Reduce overexploitation Sustainable use of regulating and cultural ecosystem services for adaptation Optimal use of existing ecosystem services Use genetic resources for resilience Ecosystem services for CCA as new opportunity for business and society Ecosystem restoration—a long-term business opportunity Energy A set of adaptation options is proposed in the Sector Assessment Report (see Appendix 3) that can help increase the climate resilience of Bulgaria’s energy sector. The measures that are the focus of the report are those specifically addressing near- and long-term climate risks of high magnitude, as presented in Chapter 1. Given that the energy sector in Bulgaria is facing climate-related challenges, and as there are uncertainties over future climate change, these measures have been selected because they will help improve the resilience of the sector today, as well as in the future. These are summarized in Table 4. Table 4. Summary of energy sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Build institutional capacity, knowledge, and use of data for adaptation Institutional capacity and knowledge networks Provide training to the MEn, regulator, and wider energy sector decision makers/ operators on CCA Translate monitoring, forecasting, and weather data for the energy sector Meetings with the NIMH-BAS to define needs for climate services and centralized agreement for provision of climate services Mainstream climate change considerations into energy sector policies, plans, and financial mechanisms Mainstream climate change considerations within energy sector policies and plans Undertake an inventory of strategies, policies, plans, standards, and so on, to identify where climate resilience should be incorporated Financial mechanisms to build resilience Review existing mechanisms for financial protection in other countries and evaluate potential for implementation Incorporate climate Climate resilience in Ensure climate resilience is integrated into
resilience into design and engineering power plants and mines water resources management affecting the operation of large hydro power plants Climate resilience in transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure Develop maps showing climate risk zones for climatic parameters relevant to T&D infrastructure Increase resilience of energy supply Diversify supply to increase overall energy system resilience Continue to develop regional electricity trading and interconnections Energy efficiency in buildings and industry systems Advance efforts to motivate end users to implement energy saving measures Forestry The adaptation options included here (also see the Sector Assessment Report – Appendix 4) will help safeguard the sector so that its many services will continue to be delivered for society. These include options to enhance knowledge base and awareness, enhance and protect the forest resources for climate change adaptation, and improve potential for sustainable use of forest resource. Many of the options are envisaged in the ‘Strategic Plan for the Development of the Forestry Sector in the Republic of Bulgaria 2014–2023’ and the further development of these adaptation options should be in coordination with the delivery of this plan. A summary of forestry adaptation option is given in Table 5. Table 5. Summary of forestry sector adaptation options Strategic Objective Type of Option Examples Enhance knowledge base and awareness for climate change adaptation Research, education, and extension Create a National Forestry Extension Service and a system for dissemination of results Research to support adaptation Model potential performance of important tree species under different climate change scenarios and timescales Enhance and protect the forest resources Resilience in regenerating, expanding, and strengthening the forest resource Enhance Bulgaria’s forest nursery capacity and system for seed collection and storage Maintenance of biodiversity, genetic diversity, and forest resilience Measures to limit potential of invasive species to enter forest ecosystems Management of forest resources Build national system for rapid fire detection and response to this and other natural calamities Improving potential for sustainable use of forest resource Improving the potential for long-term use of wood products Review and expand current building standards to improve the position of wood as a material Improving potential for sustainable and more environmentally friendly Establish a program to promote the installation of modern energy and heat production systems for households,
Annex 2. Sector Interrelationships in Relation to Climate Change Risks and Vulnerabilities Table 2.1. Sector interrelationships: Negative impacts of climate change Potential Negative Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Urban Environment Human Health Tourism Agriculture Decline of useful insects; increase of invasive species; and disturbed ecological balance Reduced water availability; floods; and competition for drinking water Competition for water resources; higher electricity costs for water pumping; and higher risk of electricity grid failure Accessibility of farm lands; and increased transport costs Competition for water resources Workers health and productivity may decrease Competition for water resources Forestry Spread of invasive species from agriculture lands; and land-use conflicts Use of short rotation forestry may decrease biodiversity; and trade-offs such as land-take may be harmful Increased demand of water resources may lead to higher demand for water harvesting, thus draining certain forest ecosystems below water catchments Use of wood as renewable energy source conflicts carbon sequestration functions of forests while providing market opportunities Forest ecosystems’ fragmentation and decrease due to development of transport infrastructure and easier spread of invasive species Introduction of invasive species from urban territories Forest workers’ health and productivity may decrease due to increased summer temperatures; and high risk for forest workers health while coping with increased natural disturbances in forests Increased pressure on forest ecosystems from development of tourist infrastructure at new localities due to decreased quality of older localities associated with climate change BD&ES Impacts from intensification of Decreased resilience of Competition for water resources Ecosystem fragmentation Introduction of IAS through Demand for water of ecosystem
of agriculture to meet food demands provisioning services in forests may deplete other ecosystems (for example, rise in erosion, decreased water retention) ecosystems by competition for water resources with irrigation infrastructure between hydropower and BD&ES services in transport corridors; and spread of IAS pets procedures may divert or pollute water resource in ecosystems services in tourist/ recreation sites; destruction of habitats if carrying capacity is exceeded and/or insufficient EIA for building infrastructure and tourism facilities Water Water-intensive agricultural practices and increased temperatures may put stress on irrigation system Deteriorated condition of forests due to storms and droughts affects water catchment and surface water quality Pressures may be created by water scarcity and climatic changes which lead to increase of IAS resulting in improper functioning of water systems Competition for water resources with other sectors Damage to transport infrastructure from extreme weather events may hinder access to water infrastructure, especially in emergencies Higher temperatures/ dry spells will lead to increased water consumption in urban areas Less water and more concentrated pollutants might require new treatment methods for water purification and wastewater treatment Increase in number of tourists may (a) increase water demand and (b) put stress on wastewater collection and treatment
Energy Increased demand for pumped irrigation due to more frequent/ severe droughts and prolonged growing season will increase demand for energy and competition for water resources between sectors Increased restrictions/ legislation to protect forests may affect location of energy assets Increased restrictions/ legislation to protect natural environment may affect location of energy assets; and increased temperature with changes in precipitation may increase IAS damage to cooling systems of TPPs and NPPs Increasing water scarcity will create tensions between different users (for example, agriculture, public supply, and ecosystems) and will affect availability of water for power generation Lower levels of Danube River due to more frequent/ severe drought will affect river transport; and cold spells will freeze Danube River and suspend transportation Increased demand for energy for cooling systems due to higher temperatures Increased health and safety risks for maintenance workers Prolonged summer season and higher summer temperatures will increase number of tourists and need for cooling systems in summer (higher energy demand) Transport Poorly maintained irrigation and drainage infrastructure could damage transport infrastructure Forest damage (for example, erosion on slopes) may disrupt road and rail operation Biodiversity protection requirements may increase transport project costs; and increased risk of IAS damage to transport infrastructure Damage to transport infrastructure and disruption of services due to failures in and hydropower; and failures in water supply and sewerage systems may damage transport infrastructure Disruption of power supply may impact transport services; and damaged energy infrastructure can cause damage to transport infrastructure Disruption of public transport operation due to extreme weather events; and higher construction and maintenance costs of urban transport infrastructure Increased health and safety risks for workers Increased use of transport infrastructure may increase the maintenance costs
Tourism Food production Negative climate effects on forest landscapes Loss of regulating ecosystem services can lead to the loss of assets (for example, protection from erosion, avalanches) Effects on water availability/ shortages Supply needs for heating and cooling Impacts on infrastructure and accessibility Endangered cultural assets in cities Biophysical thresholds (for example, higher temperatures; and fewer activity and sports tourism products Table 2.2. Sector interrelationships: Positive impacts of climate change Potential Positive Impacts on Sector from Other Sectors Agriculture Forestry BD&ES Water Energy Transport Urban Environment Human Health Tourism Agriculture Shelterbelts reduce climate effects; and erosion control Increased ‘green agriculture’ subsidized by EU funds may raise crop yield Opportunities to develop new crop species requiring less water Opportunities: Biomass as fuel; producing bio gas; and wind and solar farming Road network improvement benefits costs of transport Opportunities for food reserves for disasters and urban agriculture Increased demand for health food products Development of new food types; and farm tourism Forestry Development of new forest shelterbelts increases forest territories and Building ecosystem resilience by creating migration corridors; fire Increased importance of services of forests and Opportunities to use wood as renewable energy source; improved Improved control of fire and other disturbing events due to better transport Decrease of wood fuel use in urban environment will improve carbon Increased interest in benefits for human health; forest ecosystem Shift of demand from forests from wood source to recreation areas
forest corridors detection and control; and assigning of permanent grassland hence, increased economic importance of forests will assist management practices, which enhance forest resilience energy production facilities will generally reduce air pollution thus positively affecting forest ecosystems infrastructure; and increased funding to limit erosion and landslides close to transport infrastructure sequestration functions and other ecosystem functions of forests services, including recreation, lead to decreased pressure on forests as source, mainly of wood BD&ES Increase of ‘green agriculture’ subsidized by EU funds may support ecosystem resilience forest management may enhance regulating ecosystem services Green infrastructure for water retention; erosion and flood protection; and provides wildlife refugia Increase of solar energy production may reduce air and water pollution Wind protection belts on roads may decrease fragmentation and create migration routes Green infrastructure will provide urban wildlife refugia Development of urban/rural green infrastructure may support the decrease in pollution and heat-related conditions Development of ecotourism may reduce impact on ecosystem Water Water-efficient agriculture saves water in catchment for water supply Retention and filtration of water to underground water bodies by forest ecosystems can help mitigate water shortages Water provision and water purification ecosystem services; and may mitigate droughts Clean energy means clean water Retention and filtration of water to underground water bodies by urban green infrastructure can help mitigate water shortages Better human health may mean less medical contaminants in wastewater Sustainable tourism—less pressure on water Energy Increased use of wood in construction will improve Increased biomass production due to climate Increase in river flow affecting the performance of Reduced demand for energy for heating due to
energy efficiency of housing stock change contributes to increased renewable fuel hydropower (small and large) warmer winter temperatures Transport Demand for freight transport services Protection of transport infrastructure from improved growth of tree species Green infrastructure on transport routes can increase wind, landslide, and erosion protection; and more resilient ecosystems (improved water provision and reduced eutrophication) can benefit water transport Freight transport demand for transporting energy resources Incentives for sustainable urban transport modes, for example, cycling, walking. Incentive for cleaner and sustainable transport Demand for transport services; driver for alternative modes of transportation Urban Environment Alternative food production for urban population; urban agriculture development Preservation of existing forests improves urban microclimate Green infrastructure and preserved biodiversity improve quality of urban environment Lower electricity supply costs in warmer winters; and more solar energy production for urban needs Lower snow connected costs; and more mobility options in warmer seasons (pedestrian, bicycle) Longer season for outside activities; and more options for cycling More visitors and higher revenues for cities’ tourism
Human Health More and better agricultural production due to longer seasons and new species New forests and longer vegetation period due to climate change Improved natural environment due to increased biodiversity; and regulation of micro-climate in built environment Longer period for watersports and outdoor recreation Lower air pollution due to green energy due to more intensive solar radiation, increased frequency of strong winds, and better climatic conditions for some “energy” plants More regular winter transportations due to the longer periods with dry and warmer weather More use of green space due to longer warm season Health benefits from new tourism opportunities, for example, longer summer season Tourism New food types produced and offered to tourists New tourism products (berries, mushrooms); and forests as buffer zones (water storage, carbon sequestration) Opportunities for new tourism products and destinations Saving water reduces vulnerabilities, allow to cater greater number of tourists; and longer average stay Longer average stay Better access to (new) tourism destinations and attractions More attractive under scenario of extreme weather events New tourism Planning Act, wellness, wellbeing
Agrarian 3.1.7 Enhance the systems for aquaculture observation and monitoring L National ST Short Establishment of a system for monitoring aquaculture, creation of database, improvement in the management and science of fish migration and timing of species life cycle; and creation of guidelines for monitoring, protection of the biological diversity. Create guidelines for monitoring - 1; monitoring report one per year MAFF, NAFA Stakeholders 4. Strengthen policy and legal framework for adaptation in the agricultural sector 4.1 Strengthen legal framework 4.1.1 Improve the legal framework L National ST Short Improved legal framework: updating the legislation to include climate change impact policies and/or adaptation actions; introduction of better regulations to ensure better decision making Number of updated acts: 8–10 MAFF, MoEW Stakeholders NRN 4.1.2 Update and amend the legislation affecting inland fisheries and aquaculture L National Improved legal framework: updating the legislation to include climate change impact policies and/or adaptation actions; introduction of better regulations to ensure better decision making Number of updated acts: 3–5 MAFF, MoEW, NAFA Stakeholders 4.1.3 Elaboration of National Strategy for Agricultural Development L National ST Short Improved strategic planning in sector, ensured sustainable agriculture and rural development. Defined properly the path of the future reform process in agriculture. Defined strategic goals and priorities for adaptation to climate change Adopted national strategy, increased agriculture local production, Efficiency of adaptation measures to CC, Improved the competitiveness of agriculture (crop and livestock). Sustainable use of nature resources. Gross value added of agriculture sector will increase by 0.5% for sector MAFF, MEW, branch associations Stakeholders, regional and local authorities 4.2 Strengthen risk management and other policy development 4.2.1 Develop insurance and risk management programs M National, Private MT Medium Development of insurance and risk management program (management strategies with respect to climate loss of crop yields and subsidized crop insurance program); investments in insurance products to reduce the risks of climate-related income loss. % of farmers using insurance (current 6%); current public investment is €4,500,000 Increase % of farmers using insurance by 20%; increase public investment for insurance by 10% MAFF, MoEW, State Agricultural Fund Stakeholders, Insurance companies
a manner allowing automated download and processing always suitable for automated processing (that is, registries containing PDF and MS Word/Excel documents instead of georeferenced data or databases exposed through web services) 2.2 Improve communication and understanding of ecosystem processes and climate change as pressure 2.2.1 Communication and tools for informed prioritization of research and practical action M Post-2020 funding programs State budget for co-financing and activities outside the funding programs MT (1) Short (12.2021); (2) Medium (12.2025); (3) Short (12.2023) (1) Legal and administrative provisions are made to ensure that all mandatory studies related to ecosystems (including EIA, strategic assessments, management plans for species, habitats, protected areas, and so on) assess short- and long-term impact on ecosystem condition—including critical natural capital, red lines and carrying capacity—and ecosystem services with special attention to CCA (2) All mandatory studies related to ecosystems (including EIA, strategic assessments, management plans for species, habitats, protected areas, CBA for obtaining EU funding, and so on) contain assessment of the climate projections and at least one adaptation scenario calculated in terms of business plan for adaptation related activities (3) Stakeholder scenario discussions and public consultations to contain discussion on scientific findings in the reports being discussed and/or from other sources (for example, produced through Activity 2.2.3) about the impact of proposed activities on the ecosystem condition and services. The adoption of scenarios to be documented in the proceedings when such discussions and consultations have legal consequences. (1) Legal and administrative provisions on mandatory studies exist but are insufficiently ES&CCA oriented and in some cases vaguely formulated (for example carrying capacity is required to be estimated but no definition is given) (2) No requirement is made for the mandatory inclusion of scenarios (3) Public consultations and discussions often lack objective information and end up as controversy on trade-offs Legal and operational guarantees that discussions involving trade-offs potentially harmful to BD&ES on all policy levels are informed and scientifically underpinned with regards to possible declines in climate change vulnerability, loss of regulating ecosystem services and societal costs (1), (2) MoEW (3) Authorities responsible for the respective assessment/ study/ management plan, and so on Stakeholders to the respective assessment/ study/ management plan as per the relevant legal framework