Table 3 Extreme temperature Impact matrices based on discussions with stakeholders in Myanmar. Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for the public (impacts that have a primary effect on the public – emergency response, and public security) Minimal impacts Minor Impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Health & disease problems Excessive sweating Minor disruption to travel Water related problems Psychological problems Vector-borne Diseases Heat Exhaustion/ Heat Stroke Hypothermia Isolated shortage of food Heat stroke Interruption of school hour Snake bite Decreasing food production Localized shortage of food Localized forest fire Migration Death Heat stroke Decreasing crop production Widespread forest fires destroy homes and businesses Widespread displacement of population Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for the water sector (impacts that have a primary effect on the dams and irrigation) Minimal impacts Minor Impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Temporary loss of telecommunication and electrical power may affect operations Minor disruption to Communication & Electric supply affecting operations Not enough water in the water sources to supply irrigation water River water level at lowest point Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for the agricultural, forestry and environmental sectors (impacts that have a primary effect on farmers and forestry) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Isolated damage to crops Soil erosion Loss of crops Loss of livestock Financial losses Localized forest fire timber losses and environmental degradation Crops, loss yield & Cultivation Financial losses to farmers and forestry Widespread forest fires and environmental degradation Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for transportation sector (impacts that have a primary effect on transportation network) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Minor disruption to travel Disruption to Transportation infrastructure (rail, road, inland water, airlines) Widespread disruption to Transportation infrastructure (rail, road, inland water, airlines) Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for energy and communication sectors (impacts that have a primary effect on energy supply and communication networks) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Temporary loss of telecommunication and electrical power may affect operations and supply Short break of hydro power generation Minor disruption to Communication & Electric supply may affect supply Widespread disruption to communication and energy supply infrastructure Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for health sector (impacts that have a primary effect on health services) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Heat stroke case load increase Snake bite case load increase Vector-borne disease case load increase High Heat stroke case load Loss of life among certain population groups Widespread loss of life among all population Very high heat stroke case load Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for national planning (impacts that have a primary effect on central government) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts
ANNEX V FOLLOW-UP MISSION TO MYANMAR TO IMPLEMENT THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP NAY PYI TAW, MYANMAR, 24 NOVEMBER – 4 DECEMBER 2015 DMH-staff and WMO-team, DMH Multi Hazard Early Warning Center, 02 December 2015, Nay Pyi Taw
Soil erosion Loss of livestock Financial losses Localized forest fire timber losses and environmental degradation Financial losses to farmers and forestry Widespread forest fires and environmental degradation Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for transportation sector (impacts that have a primary effect on transportation network) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Minor disruption to travel Disruption to Transportation infrastructure (rail, road, inland water, airlines) Widespread disruption to Transportation infrastructure (rail, road, inland water, airlines) Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for energy and communication sectors (impacts that have a primary effect on energy supply and communication networks) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Temporary loss of telecommunication and electrical power may affect operations and supply Short break of hydro power generation Minor disruption to Communication & Electric supply may affect supply Widespread disruption to communication and energy supply infrastructure Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for health sector (impacts that have a primary effect on health services) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Heat stroke case load increase Snake bite case load increase Vector-borne disease case load increase High Heat stroke case load Loss of life among certain population groups Widespread loss of life among all population Very high heat stroke case load Extreme temperature Impacts Matrix for national planning (impacts that have a primary effect on central government) Minimal impacts Minor impacts Significant impacts Severe impacts Limited migration from affected areas Widespread migration Table 3: Colour coded Extreme temperature Impact matrices based on discussions with stakeholders in Myanmar. Dissemination A critical factor of further steps towards the implementation of a MHEWS is the capacity of hosting servers and speed of Internet in the forecasting office. Accessing the DMH-website from the web takes a lot of time and is sometimes even impossible. The speed of Internet needs to be enhanced in order to make extensive products, e.g. ECMWF ensemble products, and issuance of warnings available for forecasters in a reasonable time. Due to the already very good telecommunication network coverage and the widespread use of smartphones and social media, the implementation of mobile text warnings (e.g. via SMS, Whatsapp- or Telegram Messenger) should be introduced soon as well as a mobile friendly version of the future warning website. Training on CAP (Common alerting protocol)-format and how it can be implemented into a MHEWS should be provided. A staff member of DMH already attended a very short introductory-seminar on the CAP-format. DMH is interested in further training and information on that issue. Training on NWP-models
manual charts looking for similarities with the current conditions. Then they link the meteorological events in the past with the foreseen conditions one month ahead. This procedure is carried out on the 28th of the month. They could benefit a lot by using the ECMWF monthly forecast updated twice a week. Medium range D+3 to D+10 EPS (ECMWF access required) EM and spread for MSLP, T and wind 850 hPa (this charts are freely available to everyone). EFI to check if any unusual event is present in the forecast. In case relevant values of EFI are found in your area look for more details (see next bullet) Details for weather parameters on particular areas can be extracted from the 10 days EPSgrams and 15 days EPSgrams with the model climate overlaid. A similar procedure can be done with the ocean waves. TC tracks in case a tropical storm is in the neighbourhood. Comparisons with the ECMWF deterministic forecast (available on Diana). Short range H+24 to D+3 Combination of ECMWF and WRF products. It’s important to compute detailed verification statistics for both models on Myanmar to clearly assess the reliability of both models for different weather situations (e.g. monsoon season). Very short range to now casting: up to H+24 Radar, satellite imagery and real time observations. ______________