Integrated landscape decision support system The University of Melbourne This research will develop a robust knowledge and Decision Support System (DSS) that enables land managers and communities to interactively explore potential changes, from both policy interventions and key external divers, on multiple forest values. These interventions may include the use of fire, extraction of forest products, management of pests and weeds, habitat maintenance and restoration, or other practices. Engagement with communities also represents an intervention- enabling interactions then encourages understanding of respective interests and values. the DSS, land managers will be able to: Explore a range of policy and operational scenarios and how these alternative approaches influence ecological, social, cultural, and economic values in the initial target landscape, Engage and communicate with Victorian communities more effectively in decision making processes- as that enable a greater understanding of land management decisions that may impact communities are used, and Has the structure to enable use in the future. Completion date: June 2019 wide
Incorporating values in bushfire risk decision making: further development of tools and strategies Together, researchers and DELWP staff identified opportunities, tools and strategies to incorporate knowledge of values of the Victorian public into bushfire decision making. In this project the researchers will work with DELWP staff on three case studies that will allow early development and evaluation of a small selection of tools and strategies for use in professional practice by DELWP. The project will improve the capacity of DELWP staff to incorporate values of the Victorian public in bushfire risk decision making by: Providing new tools and strategies for incorporating values of the Victorian public in bushfire risk decision making Enhancing staff skills in planning, designing and evaluating the tools and strategies developed, and Systematically capturing learning of DELWP staff through development of tools and strategies in ways that will inform future learning. Completion date: August 2019 modelling The and Chemical Transport Model, developed by CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and other partners through previous DELWP research investments has enabled DELWP and emergency sector partners to better manage smoke impact on communities and industries. Building on this work, two new innovative and contemporary research projects will work on strategies to validate and calibrate the model and improve DELWP’s understanding of the community health impacts and thresholds for smoke. Table 3: Smoke modelling - current projects
Project Title Description Management outcome Dynamic smoke intelligence using remote sensing and fixed sensors (ERP 4) Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC and CSIRO This research will on the existing smoke intelligence system (model), integrated with the smoke modelling (prediction) system, which is used to collate and analyse sources of social media, remote, and field sensing data, to calibrate and validate smoke predictions. The intelligence system will improve assessments about the nature and extent of smoke from planned and unplanned fires and its impacts on communities, industry and infrastructure - enabling better management decisions and communication. Completion date: August 2018 Community impacts of smoke (ERP 5) Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC, and The University of Tasmania This project will develop a means of estimating and monitoring the impacts of smoke on the health of communities from bushfires and planned burns. Data will be sourced both from health care sources (e.g. Nurse online, health clinics), and social media (e.g. locations of imagery, By refining thresholds of smoke impacts on community health, including, irritated eyes, nasal and respiratory passage, asthma, and coronary events, DELWP can optimise opportunities to achieve planned burning, while minimise the impact of smoke on the community. Completion date: August 2018
relationships. This process will improve or supplement the existing use of fuel accumulation curves. This will be achieved by: Undertaking a thorough review of existing fuel/flammability research – focusing on the dynamics of fire severity, patchiness and post fire dynamics Working with fire management officers and fire behaviour analysts to identify areas of research priority and to collect data from prescribed burn operations. Evaluating existing measurement data, making use of severity maps and fuel monitoring data. This will be used to investigate dynamics of coverage, patchiness, fuel reduction and Collecting new data at selected forest sites, utilising DELWP data and some additional field sampling in areas where uncertainty is high. This will include evaluation of some prescribed burn activities. New curves or relationships used to determine fire behaviour for use in Phoenix Enhancements to fire simulation systems to support the representation of uncertainty A system or systems for incorporating a range of values and hazards in landscape risk modelling procedures The development of scientific frameworks underpinning risk assessments so that robust decision making can in a defensible and objective manner. For this means: Improved science on the changes in landscape flammability post disturbance A foundation for improving the robustness of fire simulation predictions,
maps and information products, which will directly improve Victoria’s capacity to manage bushfire risk across the range of prevention, preparedness and response activities. management across Victoria. Completion date: August 2018 Table 5: Associated fire management, predictive, and behavioural research - current projects Project Title Description Management outcome Weather research and forecast Victoria: fire climatology precipitation analysis (Sch 27) Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC and Monash University DELWP has been supporting the development of a mesoscale model derived fire weather climatology gridded dataset for Victoria, which serves as both input data for tools such as Phoenix, as well as providing historical baseline weather data to determine if assumptions that go into policy and operations are supported by the climate record, and whether the extent that fire management responses This research will enable to update precipitation in the primary gridded weather dataset, and to improve a suite of policy and operational decisions which use it. Completion date: July 2018
have been driven by climate rather than other factors. This research will explore why the precipitation estimates in the model performed poorly compared to temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The goal is to determine how precipitation is related to and influences the other variables. Improving fire fighter safety with based warnings The University of Melbourne The aim of this research is to identify patterns indicating to lower mesoscale atmospheric perturbations, such as, storm cell development or other forms of convective winds. These patterns can be a precursor to escalating fire behaviour or result in a change in the safety conditions for on ground firefighters. A prototype system to identify potential changes in weather patterns, that may pose risks to the safety of fire fighters will be developed for DELWP, so that fire managers can improve warnings to fire responders. Completion date: July 2019
Planned burn mapping in Victoria remote sensing (Sch 22) Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC and CSIRO To identify and develop future management options and technologies for planned burn mapping capture changes in time and space, including horizontal and vertical changes in vegetation structure using remote sensing technologies, in a manner which is of known cost and known accuracy. This is intended to better report on the annual fuel management program in Victoria, and capture data on the effectiveness of the annual fuel management program as a critical input into a approach to strategic bushfire management planning. The severity mapping will improve DELWP's capability to repeatedly and reliably map and report on planned burning outcomes. Completion date: June 2018 Ecosystem modelling and resilience Recognising the important role that fire plays in our ecosystems, ecological research evidence, informs strategic fire management planning in Victoria. In particular, recent research about fire and its relationship to ecosystem resilience, disturbance regimes and landscape heterogeneity, have been
research investment, and describe and put into practice the processes to manage and update the ecological framework and models reflecting new user requirements, and monitoring and research data. Science monitoring, evaluation and reporting (Sch 24) Bushfire & Natural Hazards CRC and La Trobe University This project will scientifically review and refine DELWP's existing approach to monitoring, evaluation and reporting (MER) of bushfire management outcomes, and develop and document refined methods and evaluation approaches to support a consistent approach to data collection, evaluation and reporting. This project will deliver a revised approach to monitoring, evaluation and reporting for ecosystem resilience metrics and provide the evidence to make more informed decisions to deliver on better fuel management outcomes. Completion date: June 2018 Refinement of EPBC Assessment process and ecological resilience technical method Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research This project will examine: how to measure and predict ecological responses to fire using ecosystem resilience metrics, and how to predict the potential impact of fuel management activities on threatened species. This project will provide refined data, tools, methods and technical guidance for undertaking analyses of ecosystem resilience and environment protection and biodiversity conservation impact assessments, which can be readily applied by regional fire managers in fuel management activities. Completion date: July 2018
Using fire to manage biodiversity in fragmented landscapes The University of Melbourne DELWP as adopted three broad indicators of ecosystem resilience which were developed in large continuous forests, so their applicability to fragmented landscapes is not known. Given that some areas of Victoria contain highly fragmented landscapes, this project aims to assess the effect of fire management on ecosystem resilience and to build quantitative links between fire management strategies and biodiversity conservation in these environments. This project will improve the capacity of DELWP to quantify the effect of fire management (both planned burning and bushfires) on ecosystem resilience in fragmented landscapes and the improved ecosystem resilience metrics will lead to more efficient and effective bushfire management across the diverse and fragmented Victorian landscape. Completion date: September 2020 Spatially explicit solutions for managing fire and biodiversity The University of Melbourne and La Trobe University Fire is a major driver of the structure and function of Mallee and foothills ecosystems and the strong history of fire research in each region provides a wealth of data on the plants, birds, reptiles and mammals. This project will develop a suite of spatially explicit models and tools that will enhance the capacity to design and evaluate alternative fire management strategies for biodiversity in Mallee woodlands/shrublands and foothills forests in south-eastern Australia. These ecosystems are also priorities for fire management because of the high The project will develop a framework for determining optimal fire regimes for biodiversity conservation in Mallee woodlands/shrublands and foothills forests. Completion date: 2019
Victoria's forest carbon The University of Melbourne result of forest productivity, which underpins most ecosystem services, and therefore an integrated value. Therefore, maintaining and enhancing forest carbon is central to sustaining healthy and productive forests in accordance with sustainable forest management objectives. Temperate forests like those in Victoria are an important component of the global forest carbon sink and Australia has made international commitments to report changes in that sink in line with efforts to mitigate climate change, so it is important that we understand the size of our forest carbon assets (i.e. how much carbon is stored), how resilient those assets are to emerging fire to make better management decision based on a stronger: understanding of the management options for, and the drivers of, maintained or enhanced forest productivity and health (represented by forest carbon as an integrated biophysical value) basis for reporting carbon store changes to be best placed for future carbon market opportunities (through improved quantification of forest carbon estimates, including in the largest stores) for quantifying, representing and communicating risks posed by different drivers (e.g. climate, fire) to forest carbon and underlying productivity and resilience (through identification and quantification
to diverse audiences. Risks and opportunities in forest carbon management will be examined using modelling, with scenarios defined in an iterative manner in consultation with DELWP to ensure relevance to emerging management questions. Integrating carbon into modelling frameworks for bushfire risk management reporting- the Carbon Pledge The University of Melbourne This project will provide a scientific basis for integrating measurements of forest carbon into bushfire and forest management and reporting. The enhancement or maintenance of carbon stocks in forests is one means of moderating climate change. However, major bushfires cause significant fluxes of stored carbon because carbon stores This project will enable to describe desirable outcomes and associated metrics for forest carbon in bushfire risk management reporting. It will integrate forest carbon as a value in current modelling frameworks relevant to bushfire risk management (including improved links with LANDIS, Frost, Phoenix, and Woodstock). Finally, it will provide DELWP with improved capacity to assess the carbon impacts of different