Table 2.3: Demographic Data 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Total population (000s) 214,551 Urbanization (%) 30.7 35.0 39.6 44.0 48.2 52.0 55.4 58.2 60.9 Urban population (000s) 44,184 56,651 71,121 87,557 124,888 45,217 Urban population growth rate (%) 5.53 5.44 4.97 4.55 4.16 3.77 3.34 3.02 Rural population growth rate (%) 1.65 1.55 1.32 1.17 1.1 1.06 1.02 0.77 Source: UN Habitat One projection of Nigeria’s population estimates that it will reach the level of 338 million by the year 2050. If this estimate and other country estimates are correct, Nigeria would move from 10th most populous country in the world to the 4th most populous country in a short span of just under 50 years. The tables below place Nigeria’s rapid forecasted growth in global perspective. Countries Ranked by Population 2000 (in millions) 1 1,256 2 India 1,017 3 United States 275 4 Indonesia 219 5 Brazil 174 6 Russia 146 7 Pakistan 141 8 Bangladesh 129 9 Japan 126 10 Nigeria 123 Countries Ranked by Population 2050 (in millions) 1 India 1,707 2 China 1,322 3 United States 394 4 Nigeria 338 5 Indonesia 331 6 Pakistan 260 7 Brazil 228 8 Bangladesh 211 9 Congo (Kinshasa) 184 10Mexico 167
SPIA staff, LGRC, MFTs and CPMC General environmental awareness seminar that will include ecological and social science principles, responsibilities, consequences of non-sustainable development, costs of poor environmental decisions, and introduction to the EIA process. Personnel require appreciation of WB’s, environmental policies, as well as, an appreciation for the need to support environmentally sustainable development. Three days seminar SA’s Environmental specialist, SEPAs and LGA environmental and social specialists An in-depth comprehensive course on environmental management including requirements, EIA methodology, Impact determination (methods) and mitigation analysis, public involvement methods, ESMP preparation, monitoring techniques, preparation of EIAs, TORs, and other. Course will include field visits and classroom exercises. The target audience will be responsible for EA review at the State level and for preparing TORs for EIA consultants as well as monitoring consultants’ work and final approval of EIAs. Target audience will also be responsible for conducting environmental audits on selected and for periodic monitoring of sub-project implementation to ensure compliance. 10 days workshop CBOs/NGOs, local government staff General environmental awareness seminar that will include ecological and social science principles, responsibilities, consequences of non-sustainable development, costs of poor environmental decisions, and introduction to the EIA process. Local Government level staff requires an appreciation for the WB’s and Nigerian environmental requirements, as well as, an appreciation for the need to support sustainable development. One day The cost estimates are on the assumption that resource persons are likely to come from other parts of the country and therefore require travel allowances; participants will come from local communities and attend during the day only but will receive a per diem. These estimates include an allowance for travel expenses. It is proposed that the training programme will be implemented two times a year, over first four years of the project cycle. The total cost is estimated at US $ 300,000. projects
ANNEX 2 POTENTIAL POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CSDP AF-2 SUB-PROJECTS Activity/Types of sub-project Positive Impacts Negative Impacts Mitigation Measures 1. Water Supply Infrastructure equipped with pumps; of boreholes and rehabilitation of wells; of water storage reservoirs; of water supply/storage infrastructure; of water storage reservoirs, etc. Supply of potable water; Improvement of pastoral activities due to availability of water for livestock; Availability of water for agriculture and irrigation; Development of lowlands for vegetable and crop production; Improvement in raising the groundwater level; Creation of ponds favourable for fishing; Enrichment wildlife diversity; Improvement I health; Shortened distance to carry water, saving women’s and children’s labour; Improvement in overall we being; Increase in economic activity; Social networking increase in capital. Increase in disease an insect vectors such as malaria, bilharzias, tryponosomiasis; Contaminated water by chemical pesticides and fertilizers; Soil degradation due to salinisation or alkalization, etc; Flooding due to poor maintenance of storage reservoirs; Loss of wildlife, vegetation and cultivated land; Overuse of water and surrounding land resources due to increase population pressures; Attraction of livestock and pressure on vegetation cover and soils with increase in erosion; Lowering or drying up of groundwater level; Lack of clear division of rights/responsibilities may result in maintenance problems of wells/pumps; Lack of clear definition of user rights for wells and pumps may create exclusion of vulnerable groups; Access to water may be captured by interest groups; suitable prevention and mitigation measures, including education of local population (e.g. good drainage around water supply points); planning, design, maintenance of infrastructure is appropriate to local needs, traditions culture an desires; sufficient community participation and organization of effective planning and management of infrastructure downstream water users (e.g. water supply, irrigation, livestock watering) in planning of water storage reservoirs proper mechanism of rights and responsibilities over well/pump/reservoir usage through participatory village focus groups that local accessible materials are used when developing/rehabilitation wells in order to provide maintenance each pump/well/ reservoir/borehole establish clear guideline of user right through participatory focus groups
Use of foreign equipment/ materials may hinder maintenance of pumps/wells that access to pumps/reservoirs is equitable to prevent capture by interest groups 2. Feeder Road Improvement/Infrastructure and rehabilitation of rural and urban roads; of bridges and crossing structures; of buses stands of foot path and foot bridges Improvement of communication; Connecting rural areas to principal road networks; Access to markets, transportation of and service overall positive impact on the economy; Facilitation of communication between neighbouring villages; Accessibility to village forests or areas for land development and use; Improvement of commercial exchanges; Access to health and education centers. Destruction of vegetation in and near roadways; Deforestation; Increase in poaching and illegal and excessive removal of firewood and wood for rural constriction purposed; Destruction of wildlife habitat; Impending wildlife movement; Reduction in biodiversity; Water pollution and negative affection on surrounding ecosystem; Loss of certain aesthetic values (visual impacts) from destruction of vegetative cover; Acceleration of soil erosion due to poor maintenance and drainage of roads; Noise and possible accidents during road construction; Increased migration from nearby cities; Social instability; Spread of communicable/ other diseases; Poor planning, construction/maintenance of roads may lead to water of a financial capital and human resources; Encroachment upon pasture/farm land. infringing on protected areas, critical habitats or areas with significant biodiversity (e.g. wetlands) areas of soil, slope or geological instability comprehensive community participation in planning, construction and management appropriate design and construction techniques as timing (e.g. surface drainage controls, selection and use of construction materials, during dry season, etc.) issue to be resolved through local conflict resolution system of local labour in order to prevent spreads of communicable diseased and repair of roads are performed using local materials/materials accessible in local market in order to ensure adequate/sustainable maintenance of roads and infrastructure decision making in selection sites for construction in order to avoid encroachment upon productive land
3. Social and Economic Infrastructure construction and rehabilitation; centers; health posts; storage warehouses; banks, etc. Facilitate the placement of teachers; Improved education levels; Access to education, improved literacy; Increased school attendance by young; Improved health care; Improved storage and conservation of agricultural inputs and production; Increased productivity; Improved well-being; Employment generation. Sanitation problems; Some construction related problems but usually minor in nurture; Medical waste disposal; Storage hazardous materials; Spread of disease from incoming laborers; The vulnerable groups poor children, migrants, transhumant paternalists) and the poor) may not benefit form infrastructure construction and rehabilitation; Schools/health posts may become abandoned due to the lack of commitment; Building infrastructure system without needs assessment may not benefit the community; Infrastructure investments may be misappropriated by governments institutions and agencies; Ensure inclusion of adequate sanitation facilities and maintenance Ensure planning, design and maintenance of infrastructure is appropriate to local needs, traditions, culture and desires Mandatory incineration of medical and proper storage of other hazardous materials Health checks (especially in regards to HIV/AIDS) for incoming labourers Conduct mandatory participatory focus groups with the vulnerable groups regarding infrastructure projects Before the start of each infrastructure project, develop comprehensive organizational and maintenance plan, commitment from local government and public to maintain school supplies, medical supplies, etc. Conduct needs assessment in areas of health, education and agriculture to ensure proper allocation of resources (for example, it may be the case that vaccination/diagnostic tools are more needed than the actual rehabilitation /construction of a health post) Establish transparent monitoring and evaluation system
4. Structural Support for Improving animal husbandry land rehabilitation; off pasture lands; of a land tenure system parks and corridors for transhumant populations; Modernization of pastoral practices; Secure access to pasture lands Land tenure institutional mechanism established at village, district and provincial levels; Improved livestock productivity; Improved pasture management; Risk of concentrating livestock numbers; Over grazing and loss of vegetative cover; Pressure on water points and resulting risk of pollution; Livestock diseases and sickness if numbers too high and too concentrated; Increased conflict between livestock herders and farmers/local population; Vulnerable groups’ livelihoods animal numbers or control access to grazing lands Control length of grazing time through introduction of rotational grazing, development of grazing and reserves Strategic development and placement of water points Maintain regular animal health monitoring and vaccination programs Establish conflict resolution mechanism for each project village under the land tenure pilot project Integrate the vulnerable groups into each pasture management/land tenure project by making it a requirement to integrate the interests of the poor and vulnerable into the pasture management /land tenure project 5. Structural Support for Improving Forestry Development of natural and artificial forests; Establishment of nurseries; Recovery and restoration of deforested zones by direct seeding; Protection/conservation of nature reserves and fragile ecosystems; Development of pastoral zones; Reforestation; Develop plantations for firewood and other uses; Creation of village forests; and quantitative regeneration of vegetation in wildlife habitat migration of wildlife of rest tree species through forest plantations fertility improvement and erosion control soil drainage of firewood and wood for other uses energy consumption in bush fires organization of hunting made up of mono spices more vulnerable to disease, insects, fire, etc; of certain tree species can lead to decrease in soil fertility’ nutrients, water, etc. by clear cutting can expose soil to greater insulation leading to high soil water evaporation, degradation, etc. in population pressures on forested areas with unintended results Consider use of a variety of multipurpose and fast growing indigenous tree species and management practices to enhance disease, insect, and fire resistance Select tree species and management practices that promote sustainable soil and conservation Educate local population on proper harvesting techniques and practices Include local population in the design, site selection,
Reorganization and training of communities in village forest management; Stream or bank protection; Wildlife protection; Management of hunting and against poaching; Development of apiculture in forested areas; Development of ecotourism; Fight against bush fires or forest fires Construction and maintenance of forest roads; Selective seasonal burning; Joint management of classified forests. in poaching of eco-tourism and restoration of deforested area by direct seeding of agro forestry general biodiversity employment generation of foreign species may potentially disrupt Eco balance may lack fuel if alternative measures are not taken into an account livelihoods that are dependent on forestry/forest resources may worsen (e.g. Hunters) development and management of forested areas Take special care of not introducing foreign species that may cause disruption in Introduce sustainable practices of fuel wood gathering and hunting (rather than just restrictive measures) 6. Component 4 Construction and maintenance of specialised skills centers, classrooms, health centers, Purchase of specialized tools and equipment, One time start-up grants into drug revolving funds, scholarship funds or other welfare funds for vulnerable groups Reduce dependency of vulnerable people; Reduce street begging and nuisance amongst vulnerable people; Improved education levels; Access to education, improved literacy; Increased school attendance by vulnerable group; Improved health care; Increased productivity; Improved well-being; generation. sense of belonging and social integration of the vulnerable groups (women, poor Sanitation problems; Some construction related problems but usually minor in nurture; Medical disposal; Storage hazardous materials; Spread of disease from incoming laborers; May require training and retraining of specialists; Schools/health posts may become abandoned due to the lack of commitment; Building infrastructure system alone without needs assessment may not benefit the group; Ensure inclusion of adequate and specialized sanitation facilities and maintenance the Ensure planning, design and maintenance of infrastructure is appropriate to local needs, traditions, culture and desires Mandatory incineration of medical waste and proper storage of other hazardous materials Health checks (especially in regards to HIV/AIDS) for incoming labourers HIV/AIDs patients should be encouraged to actively participate Conduct mandatory participatory focus groups with the vulnerable
Provision of more local wells Pressure on timber required for supports, door/widows and furniture (deforestation) Planting of fast growing tree species Buying poles, timber and furniture from recognized dealers Use of steel and iron material /furniture Large number of laborers to the site (Human waste) Building of latrines After construction waste of concrete, bricks, blocks, colors stains on floor etc. Demolition of concrete batching sites Removal of all paints remains Used tools and equipments Removal from site Medical from dispensary (health post) Construction of special designed system for deposal of waste problem (market, slaughter houses) Appropriate design and siting of sub projects. Install fish cleaning basin Unpleasant Odours (latrines) Introduce odour control technology in design and disposal of waters from toilets/latrines Sewer gas leaks and vent pipe Monitoring programs and community participation Destructive effect of strong wind to the building Planting of trees to serve as wind breakers to the building. Ensuring proper building orientation to avoid wind direction. This form has been signed by: Chairperson of the CPMC (Full Name)………………….……Signature. ………………………………Date ……………………. Member of Community Management Organization (Full Name)………………………….……Signature. …………………….. Date…………………….. ENVIRONMENTAL CHECKLIST FOR WATER SUPPLY SUB PROJECTS
5- SAMPLE MATRIX OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT PLAN (EMP) AND SOCIAL IMPACT IDENTIFICATION PROPOSED MITIGATION MEASURES MONITORING RESPONSIBILITY SCHEDULE COSTS AND SOURCE OF FUND 1 Contamination of the water source by livestock Fencing of the water source Construct livestock trough Inspect and ensure it is well constructed - Ensure the livestock trough has been constructed to specifications CPMC - Local Government Engineer During construction period During Construction period Included in subproject budget Included in subproject budget 2 Relocation of or loss of shelter Implementation of Resettlement Policy Framework Ensure new land allocated and compensation done to affected group - CPMC, LGRC - Commissioner for Land Before commencement of the sub project To be determined by land valuer as per compensation schedule 3 Minimal conversion of natural habitats Habitat retention and post development restoration Avoid to the extent possible impacts on natural habitats Where activities may affect natural habitats, ensure that mitigation measures (such as waste management plans, fencing to avoid induced impacts, signage, efforts to ensure animals may migrate safely, monitoring) are put in place - SA, CPMC, LGRC - Commissioner for Environment Activities to include pre-construction, during construction and post construction Included in subproject budget
6- Component 4 Program Assessment Summary of Program Assessment Component 4 Safety net Programs Micro credit Enterprises Orphanage Program Disabled skill acquisition Centre Administrative Facility Demanding, usually successful on small scale Political Feasibility Good Collateral Effects Complements growth Targeting Excellent Tailoring solution to Problems Improves lots of the Informal sector with growth during hard times