Table 3 - Projects exhibiting high confidence level of delivering supply contribution volumes - modelled Project name TLM environmental works (6 projects) Hume Dam airspace management and Barmah-Millewa Forest Environmental Allocation rule changes South East Flows Flexible rates below Criteria used to assess confidence levels Confidence level Environmental outcomes evident High High High High Adequacy of information High Moderate High High High Satisfactory progress in project development High High High High High Project independence Moderate Moderate High High High Issues likely to be resolved High Moderate Moderate High High Risks managed High High Moderate High Low to Supply contribution estimate basis (modelling) High High High High High System-wide river operation rules change impacts minimum High Low to moderate High High Factors limiting supply contribution estimate managed Moderate Moderate High N/A Investment-ready High High High High High Certainty of implementation within Basin Plan timeframes High High High High High Potential for constraint removal to improve supply contribution Moderate High High High Plausible supply contribution 136 GL* 70GL* 40 GL* Assists limits of change maintenance to support overall supply contribution 0* Overall confidence rating HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH *A possible increase of 30 GL in the plausible supply contribution is the total for all projects in Table 3 collectively releases
River Murray - Hume to Yarrawonga River Murray –Yarrawonga to Wakool Junction and downstream (including SA) Goulburn Valley Murrumbidgee Valley Gwydir Valley Criteria used to assess confidence levels Confidence Contribution to supply projects 30 - 100 GL of confidence depends on the extent\that Murray constraints below Yarrawonga are addressed 30 – 50GL if constraint lifted to 50GL/d 80 -100 GL if constraint lifted to 65GL/d 10 - 20GL Low 10 - 20GL Low Nil High Certainty of implementation within Basin Plan timeframes Moderate Moderate - low Moderate - low Moderate - low Moderate Current confidence level HIGH MODERATE - LOW MODERATE - LOW MODERATE - LOW MODERATE General comments and future areas of focus Project is of major significance to the success of supply and efficiency measure programs Project is of major significance to the success of supply and efficiency measure programs but with a number of concerns Project has the potential to deliver a supply measure benefit Project has the potential to deliver a supply measure benefit Project has the potential to deliver a small supply measure benefit
Stocktake plausible supply contribution estimate Stocktake analysis shows that a plausible estimate of supply measure outcomes is approximately 508 GL, taking into account confidence in both a project’s delivery and the likelihood of the project to achieve the upper bound of the likely supply contribution volume (see Table 7). Volumes will also be dependent upon interactions between projects as they are added into the modelling framework. Table 7 Estimate of plausible supply contribution outcomes within required timeframes Project categories Low estimate SDLSC* Nominated discount % and discounted low estimate SDLSC Potential increase from low estimate SDLSC Nominated discount % and discounted increase from low estimate SDLSC Plausible outcome for SDLSC Highest certainty– modelled SDL volumes Projects in ‘10 Pack’ TLM environmental (6 projects) Hume Dam airspace Barmah-Millewa operating change South East flows Flexible rates of fall below Hume 246GL 0% 30GL 10% 246GL 27GL 273GL High certainty - modelled SDL volumes unknown Riverine recovery Nimmie Modification of on the Murray Snowy Water Licence (RMIF) Vic nine works and measures 100GL 10% 75GL 50% 90GL 38GL Moderate certainty - issues more problematic or modelled outcomes unknown Murrumbidgee CARM Murrumbidgee and Murray National Parks Yanco Creek offtake -Murrumbidgee River Menindee Lakes Murrumbidgee Flow Enhancement 80GL 40% 55GL 80% 48GL 11GL 59GL Constraint project contribution from River Murray 30GL 40% 70GL 80% 18GL 14GL 32GL Low certainty – problematic issues – lower chance of resolving Improved Regulation of the Murray Murrumbidgee effluent creeks Constraint project contribution from Murrumbidgee and Goulburn 35GL 90% 75GL 90% 4GL 8GL 12GL 20GL 90% 20GL 90% 2GL 2GL 4GL Total assessed supply contribution range 511GL 325GL 100GL 508GL – SDL supply contribution
Appendix B – Assessment status of supply measures Proponent Project title Status Jurisdiction assessment received Assessments outstanding Victoria/ New Wales Improved Regulation of River Murray Phase 1 Feasibility study submitted to SDLAAC for review 28 November 2014. Revised version submitted to SDLAAC in April 2015. Waiting on advice from the Water Liaison Working Group - NSW Improved Flow Management Works at the Murrumbidgee River - Yanco Creek Offtake Phase 2a - business case development. Feasibility study approved (5 June 2015) to be developed into a business case. - - NSW Alternative supply systems for effluent creeks – Murrumbidgee River Phase 2a - business case development. Feasibility study approved (5 June 2015) to be developed into a business case. - - NSW Modification of weirs along the Murray Phase 2a - business case development. Feasibility study approved (11 November 2014) to be developed into a business case. - - NSW Computer River Management (CARM) Murrumbidgee 2a - business case development. Feasibility study approved (11 December 2014) to be developed into a business case. - -
Victoria Hattah Lakes Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case documents referred for consideration 22 September 2014. MDBA Victoria South Australia Commonwealth NSW Victoria Guttrum and Benwell State Forests floodplain enhancement project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth QLD indicated no response NSW Victoria Gunbower National Park floodplain management project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth Qld indicated no response NSW Victoria Hattah Lakes North floodplain management project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth Qld indicated no response NSW Victoria Wallpolla Island floodplain management project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth NSW
Qld indicated no response Victoria Burra Creek floodplain management proposal 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth Qld indicated no response NSW Victoria Nyah floodplain management project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth Qld indicated no response Qld, NSW Victoria Vinifera floodplain management project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth Qld indicated no response Qld, NSW Victoria Lindsay Island (Stage 2) floodplain management project Phase 2b - business case submission. Business case submitted 12 January 2015. MDBA Victoria Draft South Australia Commonwealth Qld indicated no response Qld, NSW
Hume Dam airspace management and pre-releases (Vic/NSW) Description Consideration of future airspace management in Hume Dam in which pre-releases could provide enhanced environmental outcomes. When environmental water releases are anticipated, the revised airspace evacuation and filling rules impact on timing of releases and both target airspace volumes and pre-releases. The revised rules create more spill events from Hume Dam than observed in the benchmark model outcomes. Project type Rule changes to both storage targets and release Key criteria and stocktake assessment Confidence Environmental outcomes More frequent inundation of larger floodplain-wetland in Upper Murray Reach and increase in flows downstream at key times. Environmental outcomes scores are significantly increased above benchmark scores. High Information adequacy Sufficient but no discussion on water accounting. Reliability of rights modelled but not reported in documentation Moderate Project progress Business case submitted. Stakeholder engagement delayed, subject to in-principle approval of business case. High Dependency on submitted projects to achieve outcome No direct dependency but will influence RMIF and Barmah-Millewa account and other downstream project release strategies. Moderate Significant identified issues likely to be resolved Potential adverse downstream landholders’ reaction identified. Comprehensive plan for stakeholder engagement strategy required. Potential for a contingent liability if a challenge as result of flooding. This is likely a risk but needs consideration. Moderate Significant issues not identified in documentation can be managed River Murray operators have identified the potential to modify proposed rules to improve outcomes and reduce risks. Further proposed enhancements may require rights reliability to be underwritten by the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder. An accounting and rights impact assessment is still required. Moderate External risks managed External risks identified – risk mitigation strategy proposed. High for supply contribution estimate The project was modelled as part of initial ‘10 pack package’ included in the MDBA’s June advice. 70 GL is an Initial estimate directly inferred from MDBA modelling. Further iteration of modelling may potentially boost the project’s supply contribution potential by 5 GL based on expert judgment. High Plausible supply contribution range 70GL*. High trial.
Investment considerations No works, therefore relatively low costs to deliver a significant supply contribution. High Certainty of implementation within Plan timeframes Moderate to high of success based on prior experience with management and operational issues. High General comment The project has good identified outcomes. *A possible increase of 30 GL in the plausible supply contribution is the total for all projects modelled in the 10 pack collectively East Flows (South Australia) Description Allow outflows from the Upper South East drainage system to be redirected into the Coorong South Lagoon. Project type Works Key criteria and stocktake assessment Confidence Environmental outcomes Localised benefits for salinity outcomes in the Coorong South Lagoon. High Information adequacy Sufficient High Project progress Business case submitted High Dependency on other submitted projects to achieve outcome Not dependent, but linkages to upstream projects likely to improve benefits by providing a small buffer to mitigate limits of change. High Significant identified issues likely to be resolved Not identified. High Significant issues not identified in documentation can be managed Nil identified. High External managed Identified – not likely to be significant. High for supply contribution estimate The project was modelled as part of initial ‘10 pack package’ included in the MDBA’s June advice. High Plausible supply contribution range No direct contribution to supply contribution however will facilitate projects by helping to maintain limits of change in the Coorong South Lagoon. High
Environmental outcomes The works projects can provide significant environmental benefits by maintaining high value areas of floodplain in a healthy condition, and allow the maintenance of these areas as critical habitat refuges during extreme dry periods. High Information adequacy Sufficient. High Project progress Business cases submitted. High Dependency on other submitted projects to achieve outcome Not dependent, but operation of will be linked to other Murray works projects to maximise supply contribution volumes. High Significant identified issues likely to be resolved Some risks have been identified and addressed by the proponent but there are risks areas to still be addressed. Moderate Significant issues not identified in documentation can be managed Ongoing operation and maintenance costs have not been addressed raising concerns about long-term sustainability of the projects. Additional value could be ascribed to this project, if extreme dry periods become more frequent in the future under climate change. Egress of water from forest may need to be considered as an issue for water quality. Low External risks managed None identified. Implementation of the TLM works provides management experience for issues that might arise with this package of works. High Basis for supply contribution estimate Inferred from the modelling of TLM works using a relative estimate of area watered. Moderate Plausible supply contribution range 40 - 50 GL Moderate Minimal impacts from changes to river operational rules Linkages to projects involving rule changes, especially those projects that relate to changing flow timing patterns High Key factors limiting project supply contribution addressed Limits of change. Moderate Investment considerations Smaller projects in the group of nine are likely to yield a relatively low supply contribution volume benefit at a significant cost. The regional and community benefits of maintaining all nine projects needs to be considered. Moderate
Caira Basis for supply contribution estimate Advice from South Australia is that 5GL from the project has been transferred to the CEWH. High Plausible supply contribution range 5 GL. High Minimal impacts from changes to river operational rules Unlikely to have an impact Moderate Key factors limiting project supply contribution addressed None identified. High Investment considerations Fully funded under other programs. No investment decision required in 2016 N/A Certainty of implementation within Basin Plan timeframes High confidence High General comment The stocktake considers this is a worthwhile project under the SDL adjustment program with the cost being met from another program. Nimmie-Caira infrastructure modifications (NSW) Description The proposal aims to more effectively deliver environmental flows to the floodplain and other parts of the Lowbidgee. Project type Environmental works and potential changes in river operational rules Key criteria and stocktake assessment Confidence Environmental outcomes The proposal potentially deliver flows across the floodplain back to the Murrumbidgee River, through the reconfiguration of water delivery infrastructure. Significantly improve watering regime of a Ramsar wetland. High Information adequacy Insufficient documentation for stocktake to assess outcomes with high confidence but verbal briefings indicated potential significant positive outcomes. Moderate - high Project progress Business case under development but briefings illustrates potential for good outcomes. NSW environmental experts strongly support actions in this area. Moderate - high
Contribution to supply projects All River Murray constraints (including below Yarrawonga) addressed - 50 to 100 GL Moderate confidence Investment considerations Early work has shown that the Hume to Yarrawonga constraints program is a prerequisite program for the success of the project to provide additional environmental values on the River Murray. The likely significant add on benefit to the supply measure program N/A Certainty of implementation within Basin Plan timeframes Low to moderate chance of not fully delivering the program by 2024. The implications of not having the project in operation (i.e. the reconciliation for SDL adjustments) at that time would need discussion if it becomes apparent there is a high risk the project will not be delivered in the timeframe. Moderate confidence General comment Project is of major significance to success of supply and efficiency measure programs. River Murray –Yarrawonga to Wakool Junction and downstream (including SA) Description Undertake a program of measures: to environmental flows of up to 65,000 ML/d to be targeted downstream of Yarrawonga generally in winter and spring; to better connect floodplains and wetlands with the river; and in conjunction with upstream constraint measures, to allow overbank flows to be delivered along the length of the River Murray and its effluent streams. Key criteria and stocktake assessment Assessment outcome Information adequacy Adequate for initial assessment of program. Low confidence Project progress Concepts and costs at the feasibility level have been established and development of business case has commenced with the MDBA acting as the deliver agent for NSW and Victoria under the direction of a steering committee. Low confidence
based on orders rather than diversions, Environmental water has this accounting arrangement now accounts based on releases from the dams. storages to store waters ordered if rain occurs. Scoping off-river positions in southern valleys would give an indication of acceptability to irrigators. Funds would be needed to have an river storage to store rain rejection or have an accounting arrangement to reclassify flows. industry in the southern valleys and from some environmental groups Supply/ constraint Control of flows by regulators at Koondrook – Perricoota Forests. Better control at these forests to control the ingress and egress of flows to Koondrook – Perricoota Forests. There seems to be acceptance of managing ingress and egress of flows in forests. NSW’s/ Victoria’s views would be essential. A 250ML/day limitation at the downstream outlet currently impacts on the scheme’s ability to fully realise the potential benefits of the works. Should have support but foresters seek access assurances during floods. Good potential for a supply contribution. Changes to Vic carryover rules Recognise environmental benefits from a carryover rules change on entitlement that occurred since SDL benchmark was established. Change in rules results in more water carried over and storages operating at higher levels on average with potentially more spills. Modelling required however future behaviour of entitlement holders under the rules is still uncertain. Rules could also be changed impacting on benefits. Initial preliminary Victorian proposal not being pursued for reasons outlined in comments Changes in Victorian reserve policy An outcome of the Millennium Drought was to change Victorian reserve policy after the benchmark was established. Higher reserves result in higher storages levels on average and more spills. The policy change has already occurred. There is potential to bring this forward as a supply project. Modelling is required. If implemented as a supply measure, future reserve policy changes would be limited. Initial preliminary Victorian proposal currently not being pursued for reasons outlined in comments.