severe drought less sources, more demand, quality strong crop supply possible water energy, water traffic water heavy long rain period flash flood, water surplus,inundation soil pests soil crop quality risks low class road damages possible open air risk heavy flood risk possible after melting risk, after melting risk, after melting too heavy load possible road and train transport in danger risk of food evenly bright day strong evapo-ration, water quality risk some plants to UV some plants sensitive to UV smog possible melting, car limitation possible more UV- and hail danger for devices and workers and hail on plants hail damage: grape and damage and lightning heart risks stormy wind, inc. tornado tilted slope of lakes, danger for devices wind break of trees wind possible damage possible damage possible long of wind water quality problems possible ozone near the roads near the roads air possible engine use reduction possible risk of air haze, fog lake and river shipping limited more more plant diseases possible smog possible reduced speed, limitation risk of air rain mechanical loadon devices damages bus and car electric wires at risk, road leg and arm n , problem problem mass disease
less extreme cold days and nights less unexpected freezing of more yield, where enough rainfall better and crop quality less is enough in walls and less energy supply and transport good for ill people, more survive more extreme warm days and nights more water quality and peak water supply problems some plants in stress crop yield, in food more heat alarms, water supply and quality more energy for cooling, and melting risks for ill people and for healthy ones wavesin summer stronger water quality and supply problems, more tourist load, in crop in food stronger is needed, supply at risk energy and transport risk risks for ill people, shift in pollen peak less rainfall in the warm half of the year more low level cases in rivers, less water energy and supply shifts, loss of yield and in crop yield, but better quality of e.g. wine less supply and wet high less water energy more dry days on roads shift in pollen peak, less longer dry periods, more drought stronger water quality and supply problems, enhanced demand loss of and carbon store in crop yield and supply and quality more air less water energy and shipping is possible air- and water quality risks more heavy, even torrential rain spread of water level in rivers, lakes, more flash floods faster soil erosion and more may the faster soil may lead to needs and safety requests increase more and road traffic ill people at risk in electric field n l problem problem
Table 3.2: Effects of climate change with their impacts on the key sectors. Country-wide effects and impacts are set bold if they are especially relevant in the focus region (Northern Hungary) and in the pilot area (Miskolc sub-region). Not mentioned tendencies are not proven, e.g. no convincing proof exist on the assumption that late-spring freezes, or snow- and ice loads would become less frequent, or strong winds become more frequent in a warmer climate. Priority effects Sectors / Areas relevant to the target region Hydrology, water management Natural food supply Urban Energy and health in all seasons shifts more yield and species shifts more yield, where enough rainfall less energy needs for heating, but more for cooling new pests, less extreme cold days and nights more yield, where enough rainfall better and crop quality less energy supply and transport good for ill more pests more extreme warm days and nights more water quality and peak water supply problems some plants in stress more heat alarms, water supply and quality problems more energy for cooling, pavement and trace melting wavesin summer stronger water quality and supply problems, in crop yield, in food stronger insulation is needed, water supply at risk risks for ill shift in pollen peak less rainfall in the warm half of the year more low cases in rivers, less water energy and supply shifts, loss of yield and in crop yield, but better shift in pollen peak, less reduce product , , challenge
quality of e.g. wine longer dry periods, more drought stronger quality and supply problems, enhanced demand in crop yield and water supply and quality problems, more air pollution air- and risks more heavy, even rain wider spread of water level in rivers, lakes, more flash floods faster soil erosion and more may cause losses and lightning safety requests increase more temporal and persistent road traffic problems less snowy days, shorter snow cover possibly less frequent spring flooding in average longer period, less soil in spring for urban transport and hygiene good for road traffic, more heating due to less roof insulation more sunshine (less clouds) in summer better fruit, grape quality, more summer smog and energy more solar energy, but more pavement and trace melting UV risk heat 1.3.2. 3.2 Programs integrated into regional development plans Climate change is not in the centre of attention of individual people and decision makers. Most likely those adaptation measures can only be successful which are in coincidence either with the other development targets of the given decision making unit (inc. families) or with most urgent safety measures, including decreasing destructions by weather extremes. The objectives of the climate change strategy 2020 are twofold: on one hand the mitigation of climate change by applying sustainable measures in settlement energy management, on the hand by preserving the quality of the environment, and the life conditions of the society, namely by adaptation to the changing climate. The aim of the strategy is to introduce the saving potentials and adaptation tasks, namely to appoint the development directions and possibilities due to climate change, focusing on better utilization of renewable energy sources and forest protection. In the following hereby we list the units of Eger Climate Program which is a good example of the fact that climate adaptation should be considered together with the other targets. l
Pécs 156 664 Szeged 167 039 Dunakeszi 34 936 Kaposvár 67 464 Dunaújváros 49 183 Gyula 32 016 Zalaegerszeg 61 717 Szombathely 79 300 Nagykanizsa 50 744 Szekszárd 34 004 30 730 Komló 26 210 Baja 37 573 30 646 Dombóvár 20 186 Nagykáta 12 819 Esztergom 30 523 Bonyhád 13 968 Százhalombatta 17 793 Orosháza 30 356 Total 396 953 Total 397 711 Total North Hungary Control to North Hungary Mixed control (15-21) Miskolc 171 096 Debrecen 205 084 Budaörs 27 665 Eger 56 082 Cegléd 38 315 Szentendre 24 938 Salgótarján 38 683 Vác 33 223 Siófok 24 031 Ózd 36 377 Gyöngyös 32 733 Vecsés 20 135 Gödöllő 32 907 Jászberény 27 218 Mezőtúr 18 436 Kazincbarcika 30 185 Hajdúböszörmény 31 748 Csongrád 17 906 Balassagyarmat 16 592 Bátonyterenye 13 555 Szarvas 17 731 Total 381 922 Total 381 876 Total Sum 1 016 410 Sum total: 1 016 863 Sum 1 016 757 Average population 48 400 Average population 48 422 Average population 48 417 based
Table 4.1: Effects of weather extremes with their impacts on the key sectors. The same as Table 3.1, most relevant in the pilot area (Miskolc sub-region). Note that the individual extremes occur independently from the global warming. In many cases their tendencies cannot be established either from the data series or from the models, yet. Priority effects Sectors / relevant to the target region Hydrology, water management Natural food supply Urban Energy and extreme cold day and night enhanced heating, technical problems in extreme hot day and night enhanced cooling, melted roads, traces lives in long heat wave crop food safety heat alarm, water supply problems severe drought less sources, more demand, quality strong crop rainfall, long rain period flood, water surplus,inundation soil heavy flood risk possible after melting risk, after melting road and train transport in danger evenly bright day smog possible more UV- and hail danger for devices and workers hail
for cooling less extreme cold days and nights better and crop quality good for ill more pests more extreme warm days and nights reduced biomass possible, some plants in stress more heat alarms, water supply and quality problems wavesin summer in crop in food risks for ill shift in peak less rainfall in the warm half of the year more low level cases in rivers, less water energy and supply in crop yield, but better quality of e.g. wine longer dry periods, more drought stronger water quality and supply problems, enhanced demand air- and water risks more even rain wider spread of water level in rivers, lakes, more flash floods needs and lightning safety requests increase l