FINLAND ESTONIA 458 GERMANY DENMARK 2874 GERMANY 12209 NORWAY DENMARK 396 397 400 400 400 393 136 1200 FINLAND 1200 GERMANY 400 NORWAY 1154 1137 1140 1124 1169 1160 18 1694 POLAND GERMANY 3106 3306 3102 3632 3321 3120 757 7200 LITHUANIA 949 984 963 1897 1192 853 3462 RUSSIA POLAND 1035 1063 1059 1471 1135 1010 1651 SWEDEN DENMARK 96 800 FINLAND 709 GERMANY 978 921 958 446 810 946 541 2000 LITHUANIA 915 NORWAY 1521 1659 1652 2003 1345 1507 409 1730 POLAND 800 800 800 838 800 800 1200 Total 9939 10074 11907 10173 9788 1860 39702 Table 7: Model based investment in transmission, 2026-2030, MW. All capacities can serve both directions. When the same country is mentioned twice, e.g.: Norway-Norway, the line in connecting different price areas within the country. 2035-2050 LIBERAL 110% RE FOCUS Carbon Leakage OIL SHALE RETORT GAS CO2 COLLAPSE CO2 CONCERN FINLAND ESTONIA 12 187 179 1330 GERMANY DENMARK 64 37 37 62 493 3453 GERMANY 41551 LITHUANIA LATVIA 106 148 309 NORWAY DENMARK 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4428 FINLAND 182 12 197 362 79 1132 4000 GERMANY 2719 4000
NORWAY 275 265 345 164 268 345 358 3674 POLAND GERMANY 19293 19279 19500 19238 19511 7226 24000 LITHUANIA 1705 1355 1229 1870 1794 1266 9844 RUSSIA POLAND 1524 1413 1413 2023 1488 1503 78 2023 SWEDEN DENMARK 2466 2577 2543 3062 2356 2954 5126 4237 FINLAND 1477 GERMANY 1638 1513 1639 1186 1577 1578 1075 6000 LITHUANIA 115 162 6 122 132 156 1290 3990 NORWAY 5944 6102 5953 6351 5825 5934 2605 8678 POLAND 3940 3935 3986 4000 3852 3942 1413 4000 SWEDEN 3159 40786 40626 42278 41288 41269 27695 130154 Table 8: Model based investment in transmission. 2035-2050, MW. 2030-2050 In the period from 2030 to 2050 the rate on investment in transmission is increased. In most scenarios the total of new capacity is between 40 – 42,000 MW. In the CO2 concern scenarios the investment is a factor 3 higher. In the CO2 collapse scenario there less need for new capacity. Only minor capacities are connecting to Estonia. The planned connections to and from Estonia (realised before 2022) seem to be sufficient for a long time as only new lines are built in the oil shale and CO2 collapse scenario. Results – District heating In 2012 the capacity of CHP plants are 802 MWheat. Investment in CHP capacity increases to 1258 MWheat in 2020. As a result the of CHP generated heat in the district heating system increases from 50% in 2012 to 69% in 2030. From 2040 investment in heat pumps starts and large heat pumps supply 1-14% of the heating in district heating systems in the end of the simulation period. Figure 41: Division of CHPs, heat and boilers in district heating. Liberal scenario. Heat storage A heat storage is a simple technology that, if it is used efficiently, can allow for the CHP plants to operate when the electricity price is high even without a
Figure 46: Estonian electricity generation in 2030 when fuel and CO2 prices are de- and increased. Liberal scenario. “Base” indicates no change in parameter variation and is therefore the same in all variations. Figure 47: Estonian heat generation in 2030 when demand, fuel and CO2 prices are de- and increased. Liberal scenario. “Base” indicates no change in parameter variation and is therefore the same in all variations.