would have looked had the trade continued on the basis of the high growth up to 2007, as well as the low growth post- 2008, and our central, high and low forecasts. Figure 4. Extreme high and low scenarios for container trade demand Source: Prepared by Deloitte for Infrastructure Victoria, 2017 QUESTIONS Do you have feedback on our demand forecast? Do you have evidence to challenge our findings? Which technical reports should I look at for more information? Deloitte, Infrastructure Victoria Second Container Port Advice container trade forecasts for Victoria, 2017 Channel capacity, including Port Phillip Why is this important? What size of ship, and how many can access Port Phillip Bay through the Port Phillip Heads is critical to providing advice on when and where Victoria should invest in new container capacity. For the Port of Melbourne, if the channels are too congested, or if the size of ships that need to visit cannot pass through the Heads, then the potential capacity of the Port may never be realised. The capacity at the Heads is also critical to the viability of a possible future port at Bay West. A new port at either Bay West or Hastings may need to service Victoria for 100 years or more. For any Port of Melbourne expansion and the Bay West option, we need to understand if the Port Phillip Heads has the capacity to accommodate the amount of ships wanting to visit the container port in this timeframe, without compromising cruise ship visits, the Port of Geelong’s operations or the Tasmanian trade. Navigating into Port Phillip Bay A system of channels within Port Phillip Bay allows ships to enter the Bay and navigate to the ports of Geelong or Melbourne. These channels are shown in figure 5. The difficulty of navigating these channels, particularly the entrance to Port Phillip called ‘the Heads’, has prompted the Melbourne Harbour Master to require all ships to engage a pilot – a mariner with specialist local knowledge and experience. The Harbour Master also restricts the size of vessels that can enter the Bay and under what conditions. A container ship approaching from Bass Strait must first pick up a pilot at the boarding ground outside the Heads, then navigate through the Heads using one of
Wyndham Vale and Tarneit are only about 30-35 kilometres from the city, with much less density between them and the city. The current and forecast population distribution is shown in table 8. Table 8. Melbourne current and forecast future population distribution (number of people) North Region 2011 2021 2031 Annual percentage change Northwest Melbourne 1 488 300 1 899 300 2 339 400 2.3% Southeast Melbourne 2 17 0000 2 504 200 2 830 1.3% Difference 681 604 900 491 100 Source: Adapted by Infrastructure Victoria from Victoria in Future 2016 data. This means even with the northwest growing at nearly twice the rate of the southeast, the historical distribution of Melbourne’s population means the southeast is growing from a much larger base, and so the geographical population centre of Melbourne will remain in the southeast. Table 8 shows, however, that the population spread of Melbourne is forecast to become more balanced over time. As Melbourne’s population spread becomes more balanced, will be significant freight demand across the metropolitan area. This means regardless of deciding to locate a port at either Bay West or Hastings, we will need to plan for significant cross-city movements as goods travel between the port, warehouses and retail locations. A port at Hastings will generate more warehousing and container unpacking in the southeast. This will create significant east to west movements from these warehouses to industry and population in the west, especially as retail demand grows to service the growing population in the northwest. A port at Bay West would generate significant west to east movements as warehousing consolidates in the west and north. This means cargo from unpacked containers will need to be moved east to service the significant population and retail centres in the southeast. In either case, planning for increased cross-city movements will be an important part of planning a second container port. QUESTION Have we identified the Port of Melbourne supply chains correctly?