Ecosystems – Terrestrial and Aquatic Water Supply Human Health The responses for implementation plans now lie within each sector involved, and with both Provincial and National Government to strengthen mechanisms to make Limpopo more Identifying Scenarios Three medium to long term scenarios (probably 10-25 years) have been developed in relation to the effect of climate change on land cover transformation: Table 6: Scenarios for intervention of land transformation strategies SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 Aspect No Government support (no budget change) Partial Government support (partial budget change) Strong & effective Government support (full budget change) Planning and control Ad hoc and reactive to Central Govt. regulation Partial planning and control Full planning and control Environmental monitoring Ad hoc and reactive More regular but ad hoc and problem reactive Regular and effective Extent of natural land Valuable Grasslands will continue to disappear by 32000ha/yr. Bush encroachment will reduce grazing potential by 40000ha+/yr. Grassland transformation could be slowed down. Little change to natural land cover (if the complex and important socio-cultural livestock holding system of the small farmer could be overcome. Extent of agricultural areas Commercial cropping is unlikely to change significantly. There is likely to be Increased small farmer pressure (maize) for food security purposes. Suitable land availability (and water) would be a restraint & more marginal land would be used. Commercial cropping is unlikely to change significantly. Increased small farmer pressure (maize) for food security purposes. Suitable land availability (and water) would be a restraint. Commercial cropping is unlikely to change significantly. Requires an intensive (inter-Departmental) programme to expand Small farmers as an entrepreneurial option (including rain water harvesting, land access, etc.). Grazing Severe lack of grazing for livestock on Severe lack of grazing for livestock on Requires courage and creativity (and
communal land. High stock mortality with reduced rainfall. Commercial farm livestock (inc. game) under strong pressure. communal land. High stock mortality with reduced rainfall. Commercial farm livestock (inc. game) under strong pressure. community buy-in) to redress the chronic livestock holding system on communal land and overcome mortality. Commercial farm livestock would be under less pressure if Govt. could advise farmers on stocking rate monitor and control stocking. Conclusions and Recommendations This paper has reviewed major land cover transformation in Limpopo; has attempted to identify major pressure elements within transformation categories; and has evaluated trends. At the same time various scenarios covering degrees of Limpopo Government support have been suggested. A lot of the information in this paper refers to the agricultural sector – and the reason for this is that not only does farming account for 90% of land coverage, but it is the land use category that reveals the biggest changes over a 24 year time span reviewed. Within this category, specific land use pressure points that would particularly be exacerbated by climate change have been identified. These priority aspects and recommendations for their mitigation are summarised in the following table: Table 7: Recommended key action areas to minimise land transformation identified for priority action Discussion Action required Overgrazing and grazing capacity General grazing Although difficult to calculate because of the absence of spatial livestock nos. within spatial veld types, indications are that average carrying rate is a high 8.7ha/lsu. This excludes game counts which would intensify carrying rates. Communal grazing Communal grazing, supporting a livestock holding system, indicates an even higher carrying capacity of 4.7ha/lsu. This reflects the totally inadequate area for communal livestock resulting in severe environmental degradation. Diminishing Grasslands Because of apparent overstocking, 40000ha of Grasslands are transforming every year. a) Ascertain veld type areas and establish carrying capacities by type and state of veld. (b) Implement a control mechanism to balance stock with sustainable grazing resource. c) Communal grazing pressure just has to be alleviated as it is totally inadequate. That would take political courage, community participation and technical skill. But an answer has to be found .