projections in the maps shown here are arranged vertically rather than horizontally, as is the case with the CSAG statistically downscaled projections. These modelling exercises show that there are wide range of plausible rainfall futures for South Africa. In general though, the seasonal projections suggest little overall change in the near term future (2015-2035) for summer rainfall, but drier autumns. The South-Western Cape and Limpopo regions seems particularly at risk to an overall decrease in rainfall, particularly in the longer term.
Zone 2 (KZN) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100) Temperature 1 – 2°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 3 °C under RCP8.5 Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 3 – 5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. 1 to 3 °C under RCP4.5 Rainfall Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, but within the range of current climate variability. No significant drying under RCP 8.5 Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, but within the range of current climate variability. No significant drying under RCP 8.5 Increased drying under RCP 4.5 scenarios strengthening over time, but within the range of historical climate variability. However drying under RCP 8.5 significantly exceeds historical variability Zone 3 (North West) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100) Temperature 1 – 2.5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 3 °C under RCP8.5 RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 3 – 6.5°C average annual increase in temperature RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. Below4°C increase RCP4.5 Rainfall Slight drying RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Zone 4 (Northern Cape) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100)
Temperature 1 – 2.5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability. RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 3 °C under RCP8.5 Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 3 – 5.5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. Below 4°C increase under RCP4.5 Rainfall Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Slight drying RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, but within the range of current climate variability. Zone 5 (Eastern Cape) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100) Temperature Already reaching and exceeding 2°C historical climate variability under RCP 8.5. Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. Average annual increases of between 1 and 2 °C under RCP8.5, exceeding historical climate variability Under RCP4.5, within the range of historical climate variability. 2 – 5°C average annual increase in temperature under RCP8.5, substantially exceeding historical variability. Below 3°C increase under RCP4.5, exceeding historical variability. Rainfall Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of current climate variability. Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of current climate variability. Drying under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, well outside the range of current climate variability. Zone 6 (Southwestern Cape) Near term (2015 – 2035) Mid term (2040 – 2060) Long term (2080 – 2100)