Scenario 15 2-5 Park-and-Ride Facility Rates: Existing and Proposed, by Scenario 16 2-6 Weighted Average Percentage Change in Average Fares, by Scenario and Modal Category, for Unlinked Trips 17 3-1 Price Elasticity Ranges Used in the Spreadsheet Model 22 4-1 Scenario 1: Spreadsheet Model Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts 26 4-2 Scenario 1: Spreadsheet Model Ranges of Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts Using Low and High Ranges of Elasticities 27 4-3 Scenario 1: Spreadsheet Model Estimates of Total Revenue Change: Combined Fare Revenue Gains and Saved Operating Costs 28 4-4 Scenario 2: Spreadsheet Model Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts 29 4-5 Scenario 2: Spreadsheet Model Ranges of Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts Using Low and High Ranges of Elasticities 29 4-6 Scenario 2: Spreadsheet Model Estimates of Total Revenue Change: Combined Fare Revenue Changes and Saved Operating Costs 30 4-7 Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 2 Total Revenue Change: Combined Fare Revenue Changes and Saved Operating Costs 31 4-8 Scenario 1: Travel Demand Model Set Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts 31
325 Elm Street - Haymarket Station $7.17 E E 326 West Medford - Haymarket Station $3.87 E 350 North Burlington - Alewife Station $3.36 $2.86 $3.26 E E E 351 Oak Park - Alewife Station $6.33 E E 352 Burlington - State Street $3.14 E 354 Woburn Line - State Street $5.16 E E 355 Mishawum Station - State Street $13.14 E E 411 Malden Station - Revere/Jack Satter House $1.91 $2.38 E E 424 Eastern & Essex - Haymarket or Wonderland $2.35 E 426 Central Sq Lynn - Haymarket or Wonderland Station Via $2.14 $1.84 $2.65 R R R 428 Oaklandvale - Haymarket Station via Granada Highlands $3.50 E 429 Northgate Shopping Center - Central Sq Lynn $3.11 $3.09 $3.61 E E E 430 Saugus, Appleton Street - Malden Station $2.37 $1.68 E E 431 Neptune Towers - Central Sq Lynn $1.74 $2.47 $4.12 E E E E 434 Peabody - Haymarket Station $2.17 E 435 Liberty Tree Mall - Central Sq Lynn $4.22 $3.03 $2.06 E E E 436 Danvers Sq - Central Sq Lynn $4.44 $4.61 $5.40 E E E E E E 439 Bass Point Nahant - Central Sq Lynn $9.76 E E 441 Marblehead – Haymarket/Wonderland Station via Paradise Road $1.86 $0.32 $1.17 E E E 442 Marblehead – Haymarket/Wonderland Station via Humphrey St. $1.80 $0.86 $1.98 R R R 448 Marblehead - Downtown Crossing $4.47 E E 449 Marblehead - Downtown Crossing $4.71 E E 450 Salem Depot - Haymarket or Wonderland Station via Wes $2.60 $1.68 $1.67 R R R
451 North Beverly - Salem Depot $6.34 $6.82 E E E E 455 Salem Depot - Haymarket or Wonderland Station $1.47 $1.83 $1.05 456 Salem Depot - Central Sq Lynn $3.38 E 459 Salem Depot - Downtown Crossing $2.75 E 465 Liberty Tree Mall - Salem Depot $4.90 $4.33 E E E E 468 Danvers Square - Salem Depot (Limited Service) $5.89 E E 500 Riverside Station - Federal & Franklin Streets $10.51 E E 501 Brighton Center - Federal & Franklin Streets $2.68 E 502 Watertown Yard - Copley Square $1.34 E 503 Brighton Center - Copley $3.45 E 504 Watertown Yard - Federal & Franklin Streets $3.23 $4.23 E 505 Waltham Center - Federal & Franklin Streets $3.95 E 553 Roberts - Federal & Franklin Streets $3.23 $4.55 E E E 554 Waverley Square - Federal & Franklin Streets $4.95 $8.68 E E E E 555 Riverside Station - Federal & Franklin Streets Via Newton $5.39 E E 556 Waltham Highlands - Federal & Franklin Streets $3.66 E 558 Auburndale - Federal & Franklin Streets $4.11 E CT1 Central Square Cambridge. - South End Medical Area $0.94 CT2 Sullivan Station - Kendall MIT Station - Ruggles Station $1.80 CT3 Longwood Medical Area - Andrew Station $5.11 E E SL1 Logan Airport - South Station -$0.07 $0.30 -$0.10 SL2 Boston Marine Industrial Park - South Station $0.30 -$0.14 $2.72 SLWater Silver Line Way - South Station $0.17 $5.80 $2.62
The use of the higher range of elasticities results in much greater estimates of ridership losses: 77.5 million unlinked trips compared to 51.4 million using the lower range of elasticities; using the medium range of elasticities results in a loss of 64.2 million unlinked trips. As a result, the projected revenue gain from the fare increase estimated using the higher range of elasticities is approximately $22.5 million less than that estimated using the medium range of elasticities ($64.3 million versus $86.8 million) and $42.9 million less than that estimated using the lower range of elasticities. TABLE 4-5 Scenario 2: Spreadsheet Model Ranges of Estimates of Annual Ridership and Fare Revenue Impacts Using Low and High Ranges of Elasticities Range of Fare Revenue Increases Range of Ridership Losses Modal Category $ (millions) % $ Range (millions) # (millions) % # Range (millions) Bus $5.9 29.3─35.6 26.2%─31.8% 6.2 Heavy Rail $37.3─$53.2 24.8%─35.4% $15.9 9.5─21.2 6.2%─13.8% 11.7 Light Rail $14.5─$21.1 23.5%─34.0% $6.5 4.8─10.7 6.2%─13.8% 5.9 Commuter Rail $18.5─$30.3 13.3%─21.7% $11.8 5.5─7.3 16.9%─22.3% 1.8 Ferry $0.0 0.0% $0.0 1.3 100.0% 0.0 THE RIDE $2.0─$2.5 52.6%─65.3% $0.5 0.1─0.2 5.1%─10.1% 0.1 Parking $0.9─$3.3 2.5%─8.8% $2.3 0.8─1.1 11.3%─16.1% 0.3 Total System $64.3─$107.3 13.5%─22.5% $42.9 51.4─77.5 13.3%─20.0% 26.1
encourage riders to switch to heavy and light rail at those times when commuter rail is no longer in service. In addition, the decline in commuter rail ridership is likely caused by a number of riders switching to the automobile mode as the already high cost of commuter rail makes driving relatively more competitive with commuter rail than it is for users of other transit modes. It appears that as much as of the decrease in commuter rail riders and of the increase in heavy rail and light rail riders could be diversions from commuter rail to heavy and light rail. In terms of annual fare revenue, projections from the travel demand model set show a gain of $134.6 million, or a 28.2 percent increase, compared to a gain of $123.2 million, or a 25.8 percent increase, from the spreadsheet model. The smaller estimates of ridership loss from the travel demand model set result in greater estimates of fare revenue gains given the size of the proposed fare increase in Scenario 1. The greater ridership losses estimated by the spreadsheet model are correlated with smaller estimated fare revenue gains. When comparing modes, these differences are most apparent for heavy and light rail. However, as was the case in the ridership projections, it appears that this difference, as well as that for commuter rail fare revenue, can be at least partly explained by the diversion of commuter rail riders to heavy rail and light rail apparently projected by the travel demand model set. Overall, this diversion would represent a loss in fare revenue, as riders switch from the higher-priced mode to modes. Taken together, the projections shown in these tables third
TABLE 6-2 Scenario 2: Existing and Projected Measures of Transit Equity Metrics Existing Projected Absolute Change Percentage Change Service Area Metric EJ EJ EJ EJ Non-EJ Commuter Rail Average Fare $2.11 $2.20 $2.74 $3.06 +$0.63 +$0.86 +30.0% +39.1% Walk-Access Time (min.) 19.4 21.1 20.3 21.8 +0.86 +0.74 +4.4% +3.5% Wait Time (min.) 16.9 18.2 17.6 18.5 +0.72 +0.23 +4.3% +1.3% Total Transit Trips 126,182 58,951 117,218 49,142 -8,964 -9,808 -7.1% -16.6% Urban Average Fare $1.81 $2.09 $2.39 $2.89 +$0.58 +$0.80 +32.3% +38.1% Walk-Access Time (min.) 19.2 20.5 20.1 21.3 +0.88 +0.79 +4.6% +3.9% Wait Time (min.) 16.6 17.2 17.3 17.5 +0.73 +0.25 +4.4% +1.5%