scores ranging from 1 to 25 (Figure 6). From these risk ratings, the hazards were ranked for each group, from highest priority to lowest. Any uncertainty surrounding the subjective scores was explicitly incorporated by allowing groups to place bounds on their estimates if they wished (e.g. consequence, moderate to major). This was carried through to the risk rating calculation by the use of interval arithmetic (e.g. likelihood 3 to 5 and consequence 2 to 3 results in risk rating 6 to 15). Figure 6 Risk scores as the product of likelihood and consequence scores. The level of agreement between pairs of groups was then measured using Spearman's rank correlation, where +1 indicates perfect agreement in rank order, -1 perfect disagreement, and values around 0 indicate no particular pattern between the two sets of ranks. The use of a specialised computer program "Subjective Risk Assessment" (Chisholm et al. 2005), allowed rapid calculation and display of risk scores and rank correlations for all pairs of groups. With a view to identifying and possibly resolving of some types of disagreement, the correlations and the likelihood and consequence scores were examined to identify major disagreements, and selected hazards were discussed in detail. There was no demand for consensus in the ranking process, the aim being to acknowledge and retain genuine differences of opinion. Following the discussion, groups had the opportunity to revise their likelihoods and consequences if they wished. Any changes were then entered in the ranking software and the risks and ranks recalculated. The risk posed by each hazard was recorded in the risk register, where the range of values for likelihood, consequence and risk for each hazard reflected the final range of opinion among the groups of participants. Risks were also categorised on a four-point scale in accordance with AS/NZS 4360 (SA/SNZ 1999) for consistency with previous Parks Victoria practice (Figure 7). Note that there is no simple conversion from the 25-point risk rating scale used here (Figure 6) to the four risk categories.
Table 8. Comparison of threats from previous internal Parks Victoria assessments (Parks Victoria 2003b, 2003c, 2004) with those from Risk Register hazards. (Note that partial matches of threats are recognised in this comparison.) Workshop: (Park) Previous Assessment Workshop Assessment no. of threats considered No. of threats rated High or Extreme No. of hazards in Risk Register Threats from Risk Register rated High or Extreme in Previous Assess. Threats from Risk Register rated Low, Moderate or not scored in Previous Assess. Threats from Risk Register not considered in Previous Assess. (i.e. “new” threats) Discovery Bay 59 7 10 4 1 5 Shipwreck Coast a 59 8 17 2 6 9 Marengo Reefs 59 8 16 1 9 5 Surf Coast a 59 8 12 2 7 3 Barwon Bluff b 16 14 18 5 0 13 Port Phillip a b 25 20 12 4 0 7 c Cooke b 23 13 15 4 2 9 Jawbone b 23 13 13 5 0 8 Ricketts b 22 15 14 6 0 8 Mushroom Reef b 22 10 16 6 3 7 Western Port (1): b Churchill Island MNP 20 9 10 5 0 5 Western Port (2): b 12 2 16 2 1 13 Yaringa MNP French Island MNP 12 5 16 2 2 12 Bunurong 51 27 11 5 0 6 Promontory: d 50 32 7 2 0 5 Wilsons Prom. MNP Corner Inlet MNP 52 18 10 7 3 Ninety Mile 51 25 11 8 2 1 East Gippsland: e 54 42 8 5 0 3 Beware Reef MS Hicks MNP 50 21 8 4 0 4 Cape Howe MNP 50 23 8 4 0 4 a Comparison made on a combined Compliance Plan threat list for all parks or park components b For these parks, high risk in the relevant Compliance Plan was effectively =10 on a 25-point scale of risk. c An identical threat occurred in two separate hazards (i.e. hazards differed only in values affected). d Parks were compared individually because the majority of hazards at this workshop were park specific. e Parks were compared individually because parks at this workshop were scored individually.
e impacts? large groups general public controlled by permits how many? commercial operators (education/tour/ adventure) voluntary specific events non-controlled aim to educate locals & friends of locals tide / time / weather Trampling of tourists (seasonal) aim to educate intertidal rock platforms permits positive interaction - ranger & park presence researchers care in management own guidelines self-education access paths education controls enforcement alternative areas Parks Victoria impacts? surfers illegal fishers Figure 15 Groups of park visitors who may cause damage to intertidal reef assemblages by tramping (Model from Surf Coast workshop). educate the educators closed season visitor groups restrictions on visitor numbers code of practice regulation changes to infrastructure (pos or neg effect) e.g. reduce carparking zoning of sanctuary pre-visit education specified pathways (pos or neg effect) on-site signage and interpretation intertidal zone in Mushroom Reef Marine Sanctuary
Frequent visitation by marine mammals (Merri MS) * Flora and fauna traditionally accessed by local Aboriginal groups (Merri MS) Threatened shorebirds (Merri MS) * Surf Coast Sandy beach Intertidal rocky reef with rockpools Deeper water reef with abundant fish life Biota of Ingoldsby Reef, including leafy sea-dragon Seagrass beds - Amphibolis Subtidal soft sediments, with abundant epibenthos providing shelter for fish Pt Addis limestone - State geological significance Availability of biota for fishing and food collection by local Aboriginal people Presence of Australian Fur Seals and dolphins High wave-energy shoreline (suitable for surfing - Bells Beach) Varied geology (sandstone & basalt) with platforms, pools, fissures & boulder fields Diversity of invertebrates on rock platforms (intertidal and subtidal) Subtidal kelp forests Opisthobranch fauna - 96 species, 20% of which are undescribed High invertebrate diversity on limestone substrate Barwon Bluff Sandstone and basalt reefs with thick patches of giant and bull kelp Shore platforms with diversity of marine life (used extensively for marine education) Spectacular subtidal sandstone arches and gutters Complex geology - basalt from flow from Mt Duneed & old sandstone formed under ancient seas Probable foraging area for nearby Hooded Plovers (endanged sp; FFG listed) Port Phillip Heads High invertebrate diversity on intertidal calcarenite reef (Pt Lonsdale) Algal diversity and abundance on Lighthouse Reef (Pt Lonsdale) Undercut structure of Lonsdale Reef (feature seldom found on Vic open coast) (Pt Lonsdale) Diverse fish and invertebrate communities on Lonsdale Wall (Pt Lonsdale) Shorebird feeding habitat of State significance - calcarenite shore and reef platforms (Pt Lonsdale) Presence of threatened marine mammals (Pt Lonsdale) Islets and shoals of Mud Islands - highly unusual feature and of significance (Mud Islands) Dense seagrass beds supporting invertebrates and juvenile fish (Mud Islands) Shorebird habitat of international significance (RAMSAR & Register of National Estate) (Mud Islands) Salt marsh communities largely protected from human disturbance (Mud Islands)
APPENDIX 2. Generic list of threats for structured brainstorming. This generic checklist was created from two initial lists, one provided by T. Caling (Parks Victoria, Bairnsdale) which was based on the Southeast Region Marine Plan report Impacts - identifying disturbances (NOO 2000), the other generated by the workshop facilitator. The generic list was updated after each workshop to reflect any “new” threats identified. Activity Source Biological threat Bait collection Jawbone workshop Casual fossicking by divers in subtidal TC / Facilitator Casual fossicking in intertidal TC / Facilitator Damage to habitats/organisms by divers Facilitator Deliberate harassment of wildlife TC Discarding of fish TC Disturbance by dogs TC Disturbance to fauna by recreational boating TC / Facilitator Disturbance to fauna by terrestrial vehicles TC Disturbance and damage by horses Barwon workshop Educational/research collection of specimens Mushroom Reef workshop Illegal recreational fishing (theft) Facilitator Interactions with wildlife (e.g. rockpool ramble, dolphin swims) TC Introduction of fish bait TC Intrusion of hard-hoofed animals as a result of inadequate fencing Promontory workshop Legal fishing or other collection of organisms in areas surrounding reserve Marengo Reefs workshop Predation by introduced species (e.g fox, cat) Facilitator Presence of farm carcasses Mushroom Reef workshop Shooting TC Unlicensed commercial fishing (theft/poaching) TC Contaminants / pollutants Acid rain from nearby industries Ricketts Point workshop