APPENDIX B: Data inputs and sources Data inputs and sources for the baseline domestic forecast Economic Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model Label Description Notes Model input Source CPI Consumer price index, all-urban, Source: BLS, Units: - 1982-84=1.00 seasonally adjusted Index is used to calculate real prices, such as yield Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: CPI.Q.FMS Optimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA1 UNRATE Civilian unemployment rate Source: BLS Units: - percent Yes IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: RUC.Q.FMS Optimistic: RUC.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: RUC.Q.FMBA1 PCE Real Consumer Spending - Total personal consumption expenditures, Source: BEA, Units: Billion 2009 dollars annual rate. Variables are used to calculate personal consumption expenditure per capita Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: CONSR.Q.FMS Optimistic: CONSR.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: CONSR.Q.FMBA1 POP Total population, including armed forces overseas Source: Census Units: millions- end of period Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: NP.Q.FMS Optimistic: NP.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: NP.Q.FMBA1
Log of PCEPC Personal consumption expenditure per capita. APO-100 transforms data into natural log for model. Is calculated by APO (PCE / Total population including armed forces overseas) Yes APO RAC Refiners Acquisition Cost. Weighted average price of crude received in refinery inventories Source: DOE Units: dollars per barrel- not seasonally adjusted Yes IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: POILRAP.Q.FMS Optimistic: POILRAP.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic.: POILRAP.Q.FMBA1 Aviation Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model Label Description Notes Model input Source Year Calendar year Indirectly Bureau of Transportation Statistics, TranStats, Month Month of year UniqueCarrierName Unique Carrier Name. When the same name has been used by multiple carriers, a numeric suffix is used for earlier users, for example, Air Caribbean, Air Caribbean (1). Each carrier is categorized as being either a network, regional, low fare or “other” carrier. All carriers are known “mainline” carriers with the exception of regionals. UniqueCarrier Unique Carrier Code. When the same code has been used by multiple carriers, a numeric suffix is used for earlier users, for example, PA, PA(1), PA(2). Use this field for analysis across a range of years.
CarrierRegion Carrier's operation region. Carriers report data by operation region (Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, System, International, and Domestic) For the domestic forecasts, Region = Domestic T320_ASM Available seat miles Summed by airline category Yes T140_RPM Revenue passenger miles T110_RPax Revenue passengers enplaned T410_RMilesFlown Revenue aircraft miles flown Is used to calculate stage length Indirectly T510_RDPerformed Revenue aircraft departures performed MainPTL ComPTL Mainline carrier passenger trip length Regional carrier passenger trip length Historical data is calculated (RPMs/Passengers); future years is an exogenous variable decided by APO. These data are calculated separately for mainline and regional carriers. Yes MainPaxShr Mainline carrier’s share of passenger market (versus the regional carriers) Historical data is calculated; futures years is an exogenous variable decided by APO Yes MainStage Average stage length for mainline carriers Historical data is calculated (T410_RMilesFlown/ T510_RDPerformed) by APO Yes TotalEnpl Total passengers (mainline and regional) Yes MainLF ComLF Mainline and regional load factors Is calculated by APO (RPMs/ASMs) Yes
CPI Consumer price index, all-urban, Source: BLS, Units: - 1982-84=1.00 seasonally adjusted Index is used to calculate real prices, such as yield Indirectly IHS Global Insight, Mnemonic: Baseline: CPI.Q.FMS Optimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA2 Pessimistic: CPI.Q.FMBA1 GDP Real annual GDP history and forecast estimates by country A ratio of U.S. GDP to region specific GDP was developed for each of the region specific models (Atlantic, Latin and Pacific) by APO. Indirectly IHS Global Insight, GDP Components, Interim forecast, monthly, sheet GDPR$A Aviation Variables (all data are converted to fiscal year by APO) Model label Description Notes Model input Source Passengers Mainline carrier passengers International regional carrier passengers are grouped with the Latin region’s mainline carrier passengers Indirectly Bureau of Transportation Statistics, TranStats, Trip length Average passenger trip length (PTL) in miles by region Historical data is calculated via RPMs/Passengers by region. PTL is used to estimate regional passenger forecasts (RPMs / PTL) by APO. Indirectly
Load Factor Average regional load factor Historical data is calculated via RPMs / ASMs. Forecast load factor is estimated by the APO analyst based on knowledge of the aviation industry. Forecast load factor is used to forecast ASMs. Indirectly APO SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) dummy variable used in the Pacific region model Applied fiscal year 2003 by APO Yes APO GFC2 Global financial crisis dummy variable used in the Pacific region model Applied fiscal years 2008-2010 Yes APO Post911 Post 9/11 dummy variable used in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin region models Applied fiscal years 2002-2036 by APO Yes APO Tension Gulf wars dummy variable used in the Atlantic region model Applied fiscal years 1991 and 2003 Yes APO