Table E.9 Effects of a 10 percent increase in Asian economies on trade and GDP in Australia and New Zealanda Australia New Zealand % changes US$ million % changes US$ million Exports to Asia 3.8 2 453 3.6 377 Other exports 2.1 945 -1.5 -256 Total exports 1.4 1 565 0.4 122 GDP 0.2 1 089 0.1 121 a Capital owned by each region is assumed to be fixed but able to move between regions to illustrate the allocative effects while abstracting from capital accumulation effects. Source: Australian Commission estimates. Table E.10 Effects of a 10 percent increase in Asian economies on industry outputs and exports in Australia and New Zealanda Australia New Zealand % changes US$ million % changes US$ million Output Agricultureb 0.3 182 0.2 34 Mining 1.7 439 0.5 1 Manufacturing -0.4 -367 -0.7 -116 Services 0.1 679 0.2 147 Exports Agriculturea 1.0 211 0.5 57 Miningb 3.1 712 3.0 5 Manufacturing 0.7 272 -0.6 -50 Services 1.4 369 1.5 109 a Capital owned by each region is assumed to be fixed but able to move between regions to illustrate the allocative effects while abstracting from capital accumulation effects.b Includes food processing. c Mining accounts for only 0.64 percent of New Zealand exports. Thus even a large percentage change in mining production contributes only a small change in New Zealand output. In contrast, mining accounts for more than 21 percent of Australian exports, and contributes significantly to output. Source: Australian Commission estimates. Trans-Tasman migration The purpose of this simulation is to illustrate the mechanisms that are at work in trans-Tasman migration. Since the 1970s, the flow of migrants has been mainly from New Zealand to Australia. Migration is positively related to the expected benefit from migrating. These net benefits are composed of any additional income that might arise from migrating, including additional income from higher remuneration less any costs of migration.
Table E.26 (continued) Australia New Zealand % changes US$ milliona % changes US$ milliona Motor vehicles and parts -0.4 -62 -0.7 -10 Transport equipment nec -0.5 -9 0.2 1 Electronic Equipment -2.4 -75 -2.1 -25 Machinery and equipment nec -1.0 -110 -1.3 -35 Manufactures nec -0.8 -47 -0.5 -4 Electricity 0.4 16 0.1 1 Gas manufacture, distribution 0.2 – -0.1 – Water 0.2 8 0.1 – Construction -0.2 -124 0.2 20 Trade 0.1 167 0.1 21 Transport nec 0.2 35 0.3 3 Water transport 0.7 18 1.6 15 Air transport 0.6 65 0.9 21 Communication 0.2 20 0.2 4 Financial services nec 0.2 31 0.2 2 Insurance 0.2 21 0.2 2 Business services nec 0.1 19 0.1 6 Recreational and other services 0.3 68 0.4 13 Pub Admin, Defence, Educ., Health 0.1 154 0.1 24 Dwellings 0.3 182 0.2 15 a Results are in 2004 US$. – less than 0.5. Source: Australian Commission estimates. References Arndt, C. 1996, ‘An Introduction to Systematic Sensitivity Analysis via Gaussian Quadrature’, GTAP Technical Paper, no. 2. Beckman, J. and Hertel, T. 2009, ‘Why Previous Estimates of the Cost of Climate Mitigation are Likely Too Low’, GTAP Working Paper, no. 54. CIE (The Centre for International Economics) 2010, Quantifying the benefits of services trade liberalisation, prepared for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, June. Francois, J. F., McDonald, B. and Nordstrom, H. 1995, Assessing the Uruguay Round. Paper presented at the World Bank conference on the Uruguay Round and the Developing Economies, Washington DC, 26–27 January (revised March).