evergreen thorn and Riverine forest (scrub forests) for biodiversity conservation, mitigation of climate change and securing forest ecosystem services and community resource use (integrating sustainable forest management principles) policies and legal frameworks to ensure land use changes do not undermine forest conservation Risks: -Failure to generate adequate revenues from SFM might change government priorities -Failure to effectively engage local stakeholders (herders, land owners, forest dependents and other stakeholders leads to conflict Total avoided and/or sequestrated carbon benefits over period due to improved sustainable management of forests. N/A 9,908,090 tCO2.eq Updates on forest cover, carbon monitoring reports Assumptions: -The GOP and Provincial Governments remain committed to sustainable management of forests and land, as well as set-aside of areas conservation. -Federal and Provincial institutions develop capacity and skills for monitoring and assessing C benefits -The affects of climate change on forests is unlikely to be significant to undermine forest rehabilitation Risks: -Reduced revenues from reduced timber exploitation and meeting demands of communities for timber and fuelwood might shift government priorities away from sustainable use and conservation. Extent in hectares of forest area managed for multiple sustainable forest management and ecosystem benefits 0 67,861 ha Quarterly and Annual project progress reports, forest monitoring reports and independent evaluation reports Assumption: -The Federal and provincial Governments are committed to management of the forest for multiple benefits and not just timber production Risks:
-Management of forests for multiple benefits might impinge on user rights and misunderstandings that needs to be managed Outcome 1 Embedding SFM into spatial planning Number of forest management plan protocols/guidelines for mainstreaming ecosystem, climate risk mitigation and biodiversity considerations into forest management in Pakistan 0 One set of SFM guidelines (for the three forest types included in the project) approved by Ministry of Climate Change and adopted by the provinces, by the fourth year of the project forest management guidelines/protocols Assumptions: -Federal and Provincial Governments commitment to sustainable forest management and shift from wood production to ecosystem benefits and biodiversity conservation Risks: Inability to assess economic benefits of ecosystem services and derive direct measurable benefits to local economy may result in reluctance to move away from forestry related economic activities Number of forest landscapes completed forest inventory and maps in support of sustainable forest management 0 7 Forest inventory and GIS maps Assumptions: -Provincial governments and Forest communities and private forest owners remain committed to integrated forest planning and management -Provincial forest entities other implementing entities have adequate staffing, capacity and counterpart funding for forest inventory and mapping Risks: Rapid turnover of staff can undermine capacity improvements for inventory and mapping skills Number of provincial/district level forest entities effectively applying consideration of the needs for biodiversity, climate 0 3 Sustainable Forest management plans Assumptions: -Provincial and District governments and Private Forest Owners and forest communities remain committed to integrated forest planning and management
mitigation, forest ecosystem services and community sustainable use -Provincial and district forest agencies and other implementing entities have adequate staffing, capacity and counterpart funding for forest management -Stakeholders are willing to participate in conservation and protection -Incentives are adequate and targeted to correct recipients, and benefits are equitable and fair Risks: Longer gestation period to see visible benefits may hamper efforts at selling SFM principles to policy makers Number of forest monitoring protocols to assess effectiveness of adoption for SFM in forestlands 0 (Existing practice, monitoring protocols used for recording forest violations and fires, not for consideration of ecosystem values and functions) 3 sets of monitoring protocols, one for each of the 3 forest types of pilots, approved by the Ministry of climate change and adopted by the provincial respective Forest Departments Forest management plan monitoring reports Assumptions: -Monitoring protocols would be easy to measure, be low cost and do not need highly developed skills. -Implementing entities have established monitoring system and capacity to monitor threats and impacts of conservation actions Number of provincial and district staff trained in the use of ecosystem based planning tools 0 30 Training records and training evaluation reports Assumptions: -Staff are provided adequate incentives for training and capacity development for SFM -Training designed for practical and application Risks: -staff turnover may constraint improvement in capacity development and retention Number of forest community members and private forest owners undergone technical and skills training and 0 At least 200 (of which at least 10% are women) Training records and training evaluation reports Assumptions: -Forest dependent stakeholders willingness to engage in management of forest resources
development in sustainable forest management -Provincial and district forest staff committed to community forest management and resource use -Training design simple and easy to apply in the field Risks: - Failure of Provincial and district forest staff to effectively engage local stakeholders in forest management decision-making Number of Baseline assessment report on current unsustainable and sustainable resource use practices, state and/or condition of resources and baseline of key indicator species 0 At least seven baseline assessment reports completed, one for each forest landscape -Baseline assessment reports, progress reports and self monitoring report Assumption: Capacity and skills for development of such technical reports are available in the country Number of forest resource use conflicts effective resolved 0 At least 50% of identified and documented conflicts effectively resolved -List of identified and documented conflicts with necessary details - Case studies of resolved conflicts -Progress reports Assumption: Political will, and negotiation and mediation skills as well as processes will be used to resolve the conflicts Risk Lack of political will, objectivity and weak governance may impede success in certain types of conflicts e.g retrieval of encroached forest lands and of non compliant agro-forestry leased lands Number of comprehensive recommendations for scaling-up and replication of sustainable forest 0 One set each of best practices, successful models and composite recommendations developed by the project implementing provincial governments in consultation Project progress reports, Mid Term Review report and end line evaluation report Assumptions: -Federal and provincial agencies willing and committed to sustainable forest management Risk:
management approaches emanating from the project sites with the Ministry of Climate Change, adopted, publicized and supported in the country as part of future regular or development programs and shared widely through case studies etc. -GoP and provincial governments would be less conducive to make changes from existing narrowly focused forest production priorities Outcome 2 Biodiversity conservation strengthened in and around High Conservation Value Forests Hectares of high biodiversity conservation value forests identified, designated and effectively managed for biodiversity and climate mitigation 0 At least 18,000 ha of Western Himalayan Conifer forests, 4,459 ha of sub-tropical evergreen thorny forests and 18,898 ha of riverine forests Landscape management plans; Forest working plans include SFM prescriptions Assumptions: -Provincial governments willingness to provide staff and resource mobilization for meeting biodiversity conservation outcomes in areas already assigned for this purpose - Additional areas set-aside for conservation are based on clearly defined criteria for biodiversity conservation Risk: -Government priorities may change from forest protection to industrial use. -Population trends of key indicator species of Ovis vignei punjabensis, Axis porcinus, Pucrasia macrolop, Platanista gangetica minor stable or increasing Riverine forests: Axis porcinus 345 Plantanista gangetice minor Scrub forests: Ovis vignei punjabensis – 200 Gazella gazella - 25 Conifer forests: Lophorus lophorus impejanus – 375 Semnopithecus entellus – 150 Population of indicator species stable or increase over baseline values Annual Forest surveys and inventory at defined number of sites in each forest landscapes Assumptions: -Adequate resources and training provided to staff and researchers to conduct inventory and monitoring Emissions of metric tCO2 avoided from 0 4,759,145 tCo2 eq. Forest (biomass) carbon Assumptions:
conservation over a 30-year period inventory/baseline (emission data) and deforestation rate (activity data) -Provincial governments willingness to set-aside areas for conservation from current production -Provincial government commitment and resources available for carbon monitoring Risks: -Lack of capacity and skills for C assessments Extent of forest ecosystem covered under a model for Community Managed Conservation in High Value Coniferous Forests with high potential for replication established in 0 At least 8,000 ha -Community surveys and records of forest improvement and increased incomes and production of NTFP -Self monitoring and independent evaluations Independent evaluations Assumption: -Local community members and private forest owners are willing and cooperate in implementation of SFM practices Risks: -Level on incentives generated through SFM practice might be insufficient to ensure adequate commitment to SFM -Climate change impacts may increase to the extent that even if the project implements activities to improve pasture lands may not be enough to make a difference Percentage of households reporting increased incomes in Community managed conservation areas from forest and resources Baseline incomes would be assessed once forest inventory and mapping completed and locations for community forest use identified 20%, of which at least 30% of beneficiaries are women Social surveys and reports at village level Risks: -Engaging local stakeholders more robustly contains some risk in Pakistan, where centralized approaches are still the norm. -Elite capture at local level would prevent marginalized groups and forest dependents from generating benefits of project Number of forest dependent community members and private forest owners trained in technical and 0 At Least 100, of which at least 10% would be women -Training modules -Socio-economic and social organizational activities’ reports Assumption: All stakeholders will participate in the trainings which will not only enhance their capacities but would
community organizational skills for sustainable resource use. -Progress reports -Monitoring reports also positively change their mindset Risk: Owners and big right holders may not agree to joint trainings with the members of the community organizations for maintaining the status quo Number of provincial forest staff trained in use of tools and techniques for improved protected area management and species conservation 0 60 forest and 30 wildlife staff of different levels trained in forest biodiversity conservation in two weeks to three months training courses - Training modules - Training activities reports -Progress reports -Monitoring reports Assumption: The staff at different levels and the provincial government including forest departments and wildlife departments will be interested in such training courses and allow the trainee staff to attend these. There is capacity in the country to conduct such courses effectively Risks Middle level and senior staff may shy to attend the formal training courses The trainee staff may not be released for attending the courses for attending to short term priorities The risks (if any) would be avoided by motivating and providing incentives to the trainees and joint planning of these courses with the senior government staff Outcome 3 Enhanced carbon sequestration in and around HCVF in target forested landscapes Number of hectares of Sub-tropical broadleaved evergreen thorny forests and Western Himalayan Temperate Coniferous forests rehabilitated 0 3,400 ha of Sub-tropical broadleaved evergreen thorny forests and 10,005 ha of Western Himalayan Temperate Coniferous forests Provincial forest department and community records of forest activities Assumptions: Areas selected for natural regeneration are based on potential for assisted natural regeneration, reforestation, rehabilitation, conservation including availability of seeding stocks, land suitability water availability and other biotic, edaphic and socio-economic factors
Pakistan developed and monitored deforestation rate (activity data) -national methodology for measuring carbon stocks and fluxes developed under UN-REDD+ readiness program Risks: Lack of capacity and skills for assessments Delay in developing national methodological framework for carbon stock monitoring SECTION III: TOTAL BUDGET AND WORKPLAN Award ID: 00086910 Project ID: 00094079 Award Title: PIMS 4674 SFM to secure multiple benefits in Pakistan’s high conservation value forests Business Unit: PAK10 Project Title: Sustainable forest management to secure multiple benefits in Pakistan’s high conservation value forests PIMS no. 4674 Implementing Partner (Executing Agency) Ministry of Climate Change GEF Outcome/Atlas Activity Party/ Agent Fund ID Donor Name Atlas Budgetary Account Code ATLAS Budget Description Amount YR 1 (USD) Amount YR 2 (USD) Amount YR 3 (USD) Amount YR 4 (USD) Amount YR 5 (USD) Total (USD) See Budget Note:
Project Management MoCC/ UNDP 62000 GEF 71400 Contractual Services - Individual 64,200 67,410 70,870 74,320 78,036 354,836 13 71600 Travel 750 788 827 868 772 4005 14 72200 Equipment and furniture 400 420 441 463 486 2,210 15 72400 Communic &Audio Visual Equip 1,050 1,103 1,158 1,215 1,276 5,802 16 72500 Office supplies 700 735 772 810 851 3,868 17 73400 Rental & Maint of Other Equip 340 357 374 394 414 1,879 18 74500 Cost recovery 10,000 2,000 5,000 4,400 1,000 22,400 19 74500 Miscellaneous Expenses 400 400 400 400 400 2,000 20 Sub-total GEF 77,840 73,213 79,842 82,870 83,235 397,000 71400 Contractual Services – Individual 54,600 57,330 60,197 63,206 66,367 301,700 21 71600 Travel 27,400 28,770 30,208 31,719 33,305 151,402 22 72200 Equipment and furniture 164,919 0 0 0 0 164,919 23 72200 Equipment and furniture (Vehicle O&M) 7,485 7,859 8,252 8,665 9,098 41,359 24 72500 Office supplies 3,400 3,570 3,748 3,936 4,133 18,787 25 04000 UNDP 72400 Communic &Audio Visual Equip 8,000 8,400 8,820 9,261 9,724 44,205 26 73400 Rental & Maint of Other Equip 1,700 1,785 1,874 1,968 2,066 9,393 27
QUESTION 2: What are the Potential Social and Environmental Risks? Note: Describe briefly potential social and environmental risks identified in Attachment 1 – Risk Screening Checklist (based on any “Yes” responses). QUESTION 3: What is the level of significance of the potential social and environmental risks? Note: Respond to Questions 4 and 5 below before proceeding to Question 6 QUESTION 6: What social and environmental assessment and management measures have been conducted and/or are required to address potential risks (for Risks with Moderate and High Significance)?
Table 2. Data sourced from various literature to derive biomass, biomass growth and carbon stock estimates. Ecosystem Type Source Species Site description Estimated proportion of intact forest Location Aboveground woody biomass (tonnes/ha) Carbon stock (tonnes/ha) Aboveground rate of C sequestration (tonnes/year) Coniferous forest Ahmad et al. 2014 Cedrus deodara, Pinus wallichiana, Abies pindrow, Picea smithania Authors suggest that forest cover can be increased through various forest management activities. 0.9 Dir Kohistan, Pakistan 264 132 N/A Coniferous forest Amir et al. 2015 Cedrus deodara Mature forest, consisting of old and large diameter trees. 1 Kumrat Valley, Pakistan 1281 640 N/A Scrub forest Nizami 2012 Acacia modesta; Olea ferruginea Managed forest and sites are representative of climate, species, soil and human activities. 0.4 Kherimurat forest, Pakistan 50 25 N/A Oak scrub forest Khan et al. 2015 Quercus baloot The forest is used for timber, fuelwood and livestock. 0.5 Sheringal Valley, Pakistan 51 25 N/A Tropical riverine forest Baral et al. 2009 Terminalia tomentosa, Trewia nudiflora, Shorea robusta Mature (60 years) forest (Panta et al. found annual decrease of only 0.2–0.7%) 0.9 Chitwan, Nepal 178 80 3.21
Contractual agreements will be made with any private company who is ready to support and contribute to the project initiatives. Role and responsibilities of key stakeholders and their Involvement Mechanisms and Strategies Mechanisms and strategies for stakeholder involvement will ensure that the relevant shareholders receive and share information and provide their inputs in the planning, design, implementation, monitoring and evaluation of project initiatives and play a role in sustaining the initiatives during and after the closure of the project. Roles and responsibilities of main stakeholders of the project are summarized in the following table. Key Stakeholder Role and responsibilities Potential role in the project Involvement Mechanisms and Strategies Ministry of Climate Change (MOCC), Inspector General Forests MOCC is overall coordinating authority for climate change, forestry and environmental protection in the country. The Ministry is responsible for ensuring compliance with the provisions of the relevant international conventions, in particular UNFCCC, UNCBD and UNCCD as a designated national authority. The MOCC, through its Office of the IGF, is the lead ministry for forestry and REDD+ policy-making and programming. It facilitates inter-provincial and coordination on issues related to forestry, wildlife, biodiversity conservation, as well as ensuring national compliance with international conventions. The Ministry is coordinating Pakistan's REDD Readiness Preparation Proposal (RPP, 2015-18), which is set to provide the enabling environment and strategy for SFM implementation. As the project proponent and proposed executing agency, MOCC will coordinate with the Provincial Forest Departments to guide them in implementation of project initiatives in the target landscapes and in building capacity of stakeholders. MOCC will chair the Project Board which will interface with federal policy and planning, and will allocate co-financing such as ADP, FDF and recurrent budgets. The MOCC will be the chief executing agency for the project, with the directing the Project Management Unit (PMU) that will be responsible for coordinating with Provincial Management and Implementation Units (PMIU). The Secretary MOCC will be the chairman of the Project Board that will provide strategic direction for project implementation, approve annual work-plans and provide coordination forum between key stakeholders. Other Federal Ministries like Ministry of Planning, Development and Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms approves the project documents and funding Other federal ministries may arrange funds for sustainable forest management from local Other Federal Ministries like Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms, Economic Affairs Division would be
Provincial Planning and Development Departments Provincial Planning and Development Departments coordinate with all the development departments at the provincial level. Provincial Planning and Development Departments will oversee the project progress and provide direction for future planning through Provincial Management Committees. The Provincial Management Committees will be headed by Provincial Planning and Development Departments and will coordinate and oversee progress, provide guidance for the project’s consistency and synergy with the other on-going development processes in the province, on the annual work-plan and project implementation Other provincial departments like Wildlife, Fisheries, Agriculture and Livestock Department Provide inputs for management including development of the relevant sector. Wildlife department manages the protected or high conservation value forests. Will provide technical assistance and available inputs for management of relevant sector The relevant departments would be the members of Provincial Management Committee. The PMIUs will consult with these entities through regular meetings, information, commitment, communication, dissemination, joint planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation. Board of Revenue in Provincial governments Management of ownership of forest lands rests with the Board of Revenue of provincial governments Board of Revenue will provide services for digitization of land records in the landscape. The Board of Revenue in their provinces will be responsible or digitization of land records in the landscape. Forest Community including women and vulnerable groups having user rights in Forests Local Forest Communities in the forest landscapes are the key users and custodians of the forest resources. They have no or very limited rights in reserved forests and some rights in protected forests. In Guzara/ Community forests, they have more rights. Rights include firewood collection, grazing of animals, share in timber sales proceeds for local right holders from areas which are harvested according to a management plan of the Forest Deptt (so-called ‘royalties’; 80% share in Hazara Division). Use of timber for local purpose is allowed with Local community including women and vulnerable groups will be involved in planning, designing, implementation and participatory monitoring of the project interventions. Their participation will be ensured through the existing or newly formed community based organizations. Existing or news CBOs will be direct participants in activities of the project.
forest management, biodiversity conservation and climate change. Key donors are: GEF, UNDP, World Bank, USAID, DFID, EU, NORAD, SDC and other technical and financial support for the project. regular coordination meetings Print and electronic media, Green Journalists Society Public awareness and outreach Would be contacted for Public awareness and outreach activities for sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration Print and electronic institutions will be contracted to produce and disseminate information about project activities, lessons and impacts NTFP dealers/ Contractors Contractors are hired by the forest department to sell NTFP from the forests. They often tend to take more than required in order to increase their profit resulting in increased deforestation. Contractors would be guided for harvesting NTFP according to the principles of sustainable forest management and bio-diversity conservation. NTFP dealers/Contractors may be contracted to train and guide local people on sustainable harvesting principles, value addition and processing PART VIII: TRACKING TOOLS