and duration unpredictable) Closure /alternative use of schools Drought / famine Moderate (Overall risk broadly quantifiable; possible to identify early indicators, as well as likely affected groups and regions) Slow onset / protracted Displacement / withdrawal of students Increase in malnutrition limits cognitive capacity of affected children Displacement / death of teachers Civil unrest / violent conflict Varied (Overall risk not well quantified; possible to detect early warning signs or risk areas in some cases. Onset, scale and duration generally unpredictable) Immediate Damage and destruction of school infrastructure Damage and destruction of learning materials Displacement / withdrawal of students Displacement / death of teachers Prolonged insurgency Moderate (Overall risk not well quantified; possible to identify early indicators, as well as likely affected groups and regions) Slow onset / protracted Occupation, damage and destruction of school infrastructure Damage and destruction of learning materials Displacement / withdrawal of students Displacement / death of teachers shock Varied (Overall risk recognized but not well quantified; possible to identify early indicators, but scale and duration generally unpredictable) Generally slow onset / usually protracted Lack of funds to maintain education program Displacement / withdrawal of students Displacement of teachers Refugee influx due to shock in another state Varied (Overall risk not well quantified; likely to depend on the nature of the initial shock. Onset, scale and duration generally unpredictable) Generally immediate, potential for slow onset / protracted Rapid increase in student numbers Emergence of additional and complex needs in terms of language, curriculum etc. Challenges in raising funds to expand education access
data/ Provision of temporary structures Number of temporary structures required x average cost of temporary structure construction Extensive $1,420 per 42 sq. m shelter Provision of learning materials Estimate of number of students lacking access to materials x cost of learning material provision Extensive $4 per pupil (share of Provision of teacher stipends Number of teachers affected by shock conditions x estimated additional stipend required for retention Extensive $234-$2,600 per teacher, per annum Provision of cash transfers/safety nets Livelihoods assessment of Minimum Expenditure Basket x number of families requiring support Limited $102 per month for family of 5, including 3 children A4.2 Long term costs Table A4.4 Quantifying the long term costs of costs of shocks and disruption. Sources: Estimates from Jones and Naylor (2014), Mizunoya (2015) and Save the Children (2015). Type of cost Method of estimation Extent of existing data/ Example of costs Lower levels of educational achievement and learning outcomes due to lost teaching time from gaps in attendance / provision Estimated reduction in national average years of schooling due to conflict x increase in income per capita for increase of one year in average years of schooling Moderate – only for economic impact DRC (2009-2012): $470 mn (1.5% of GDP) Pakistan (2009-2012): $2.9 bn (1.3% of GDP) Syria (2011-2015): $1.26 bn (3.1% of GDP)
Permanent reductions in cognitive ability due to persistent malnutrition Estimated number of additional children affected by persistent malnutrition x loss in lifetime incomes associated with famine Limited $10.26 – $27.35 per annum per affected child Permanent increase in out of school children Estimate number of additional student at different levels of education x wage differentials for wages for people with different levels of academic attainment, applied with discount rate Moderate – only for economic impact DRC (2009-2012): $53-107 mn Pakistan (2009-2012): $440 mn – $1.5 bn Syria (2011-2015): $2.18 bn – $10.7 bn A4.3 Example: conflict shock impacts and costs Table A4.5 Evidence from recent conflict disasters on the economic and social costs of shocks to the education system under the current approach. DR Congo Nigeria (2009-2012) Pakistan (2009-2012) Syria (2011-2015) Nature of crisis Conflict Conflict Conflict Conflict Damage and destruction of school infrastructure $20 mn $4.95 mn $23.63 mn $991 mn – $2.73 bn Damage and destruction of learning materials $4 mn $0.29 mn $4.5 mn $104 - $264 mn Replacement of lost teachers $2,100 $20,000 $115,020 $2-$6 mn Estimated loss from rise in OOSC due to conflict (range) $53-$107 mn Not available $440 mn – $1.5 bn $2.18 bn – $10.7 bn Estimated loss from education disruption (loss of teaching days and learning outcomes) $470 mn Not available $2.9 bn $1.26 bn Total cost estimate $547 mn - $601 mn $5.26 mn $3.37 bn – $4.43 bn $4.54 bn - $14.96 bn