2008/ 2009 5,164,473 2009/2010 2,250,010 Source: Bukoba rural district council, May 2011 Results show that coffee production in Bukoba rural district declined from 7,800,000 kg in 1999/2000 to 2,250,010kg in 2009/ 2010. 4.4.3 Trends in Coffee Production in Kagera Region from 2000/ 2001 to 2009/ 2010 The coffee production in Kagera region declined from 35,552 tons 2000/ 2001 season to 21,393 tons in 2009/ 2010. Table 6: Coffee Production in Kagera Region from 2000/ 2001 to 2009/ 2010. SEASON / YEAR TONS 2000/ 2001 35,552 2001/2002 21,741 2002/ 2003 37,760 2003/ 2004 16,007 2004/ 2005 51,758 2005/ 2006 40,713 2006/ 2007 23,470 2007/ 2008 25,093 2008/ 2009 48,017 2009/2010 21,393 Source: Region commissioner’s office – Kagera, 2011 The results from 6 above show that coffee production in Kagera region declined from 35552 tons in 2000/ 2001 to 21393 tons in 2009/ 2010 to reveal the effects on coffee industry due to the lack of inputs required to increase coffee production. 4.4.4 Trends in Coffee Production in Tanzania From 2000/ 2001 to 2009 / 2010
67,900 17,284 86,420 9,260 43,210 133,333 4,692 3,704 4,074 6,173 33,950 8,642 18,520 55 14 70 7.5 35 108 3.8 3 3.3 5 27.5 7 15 4,610,410,000 298,736,656 7,468,416,400 85,747,600 1 867,104,100 17,777,688,890 22,014,864 13,719,616 16,597,476 38,105,929 1,152,602,500 74,684,164 342,990,400 3,734,500 241,976 6,049,400 69,450 1,512,350 14,399,964 17,829.6 11,112 13,444.2 30,865 933,625 60,494 277,800 3,025 196 4,900 56.25 1,225 11,664 14.44 9 10.89 25 756.25 49 225 ∑X = 437,162 ∑Y= 354.1 ∑X2= 33768817890 ∑XY= 27352809.8 ∑Y2 22155.83 With the help of linear regression equation B= n ∑XY - ∑Y∑X n∑X2 - (∑X)2 B= [13 (27352809.8) - 354.1 × 437162] ×106 13 (33768817890) – (437162)2 B= [355586527.4 - 154799064.2] ×106 4.3899463 × 1011 –1.9111061 ×1011 B= 200787463.2 × 106 2.4788402 × 1011 B= 200787463.2 247884.02 B= 810.005676 B = 810. But
A= Y - B X OR A= ∑Y - B∑X n A= 354.1 × 106 - 810 (437162) 13 A= 354100000 - 354101220 13 A= -1220 = -93.846 OR 13 A ≈ -94 Therefore, the linear regression is Y = 810x – 94 The results showed that the gradient or slope of the linear regression line (where f `(x) = dy = 810 ) dx was equal to the price of the dollar in the world market. That is one dollar in the world market was sold at Tsh. 810/= to meet the costs of the equipment and spare parts required in Bukop factory, and as the price of the dollar in the world market increased in terms of the domestic currency, then the running production costs in the coffee industry would increase at the expense of the price of the coffee paid to the farmers hence to lower the coffee production. This reveals that the higher the price of a dollar, ( foreign currency ) the higher will be the domestic currency required via foreign exchange in the world market to import the equipment
Etyang, M.N (1988), Economic Statistics. Lecture series BEC 202, College of Education and External Studies, the Nairobi University Press. Freund, J.E and William, F.J (1975): Elementary Business Statistics, The Modern Approach. Prentice – Hall International, Inc. London. Gibbon, P 2000 (a) Global commodity chains and Economic upgrading in Less Developed countries” CDR Working 00.2 Copenhagen: Centre for Development Research. Gibbon, P 2000 (b): “Back to the Basics” through Delocalization; The Mauritian garment Industry at the End of the 20th century. CDR Working paper 00.7Copenhagen: Center for Development Research. Hill, C.W. (2001). Global Business Today Second Edition. Published by Irwin/Mc Graw-Hill. Companies.. International Coffee Organization (ICO), International Centre UNCTAD/ WTO/ ITC and Common Fund for Commodities (CFC) (2000). The gourmet coffee project; Adding value to Green Coffee. Vol. 2, London, Geneva and Amsterdam: ICO, ITC and CFC. Kahama, C.G., Maliyamkono, T.L and Wells, S (1994): The challenge for Tanzania’s economy; Tanzania Publishing House, Dar es Salaam. Kahil, R. (1973): Inflation and Economic Development in Brazil (1946 – 1963). Oxford University Press; printed in Great Britain by Butler and Tanner Ltd. Frome and London. Kasembe, J.N.R (1984): Problems of Perennial Crop Production by Small holders In: Hawk Sworth, D.L (ed), Advanced Agricultural production in Africa. Proc.