March – Britain and France sign naval agreement 1 April 1912 – Secret Memorandum June - Fifth Naval Law August – President Poincare visits Russia First Balkan War (begins 8th October) A majority in the Reichstag now hostile to or at best ambivalent about the ruling elites. Britain placed her central Mediterranean interests under the protection of the French fleet, and concentrated her own resources in home waters (i.e. protecting the North Sea and the Channel coast) and at Gibraltar. The Royal Navy agreed to protect the northern coast of France from German attack. Lord Haldane told the German ambassador in London that Britain stand by France unconditionally in the event of a war; Britain would not allow the balance of power to shift to change in Germany’s favour. In response to perhaps to Germany’s humiliation at Agadir, Admiral von Tirpitz asked in a top secret memorandum – ‘should we speed up [the outbreak of war] or attempt to delay it? three more battleships to the building program. He left his Russian hosts in no doubt that although the formal agreement guaranteed French assistance in the event of a German attack on Russia; France would give her ally help in the event of a confrontation with Germany that was triggered by Austria-Hungary. E. Helmreich: ‘France had virtually given Russia a blank cheque on which she might inscribe whatever she liked.’ The Balkan War (1912) – was fought by a League of Balkan states against Turkey. Serbia, Montenegro, Bulgaria and Greece fought for independence from the Ottomon Empire. Russia supported the Balkan league, but Austro-Hungary feared for the stability of its own empire if the Ottoman Empire was defeated. – Particularly if Serbia gained access to the Adriatic. ‘I will keep out of it’, wrote the German Kaiser in October. ‘Let them get on with their war undisturbed.’ Yet the war seemed to galvanise Germany into more robust support for her ally in the Dual Alliance than ever before. However, by December, alarmed by the disintegration of Turkey, both the Russians and the Austrians began to moblise. Germany urged conciliation and, with Britain, organised an international conference that would be concluded in May the following year.
November – The Zabern affair November December - Vote of no confidence in Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg. to make them unable to tolerate any further blow. Only the attitudes of Great Britain and Italy were uncertain.’ The prestige of the Kaiser within Germany was also about to take a hit on the eve of the troubles of 1914 during the Zabern affair. Kaiser Wilhelm II’s reputation suffered further damage in Germany because of his apparent refusal or inability to hold his army to account. Turkey invited a German general, Liman von Sanders, to undertake reorganisation of the Turkish army in Constantinople. The polarisation in the Reichstag is never more explicit, and the undemocratic nature of the Constitution never more clearly demonstrated. 1914 In May 1914, before the Assassination, Moltke again argued that if Germany should go to war, then the ‘sooner the better’; by 1917 Germany’s position will be much weaker because of Russian rearmament. June German-Austrian negotiations on future Balkan policy. June Russian Duma approves the Great Programme 28th June Assassination at Sarajevo German military expenditure had more than doubled between 1900-1914 (from 1080 to 2312 million marks). Moltke pushed for increases in the Army Law of 1912 and 1913, increasing peacetime strength of the army by 20% from 663,000 to 800,000. Both French and Russians introduced reforms of own, but these would take up to three years to have any effect, giving the Germans a short-term advantage. This was the reason for Moltke’s comment that ‘the sooner the better’. Ended without agreement. Russia increased military service from 3 to 3.5 years and launched a further ‘great Programme’ whereby over half a million Russians per annum would be conscripted. Russia never had time to fulfil the programme before war broke out. But by 1914 it could mobilise the largest army – 4.4 million. Moltke’s remark during the July crisis that – if there’s going to be war, better now than in three year’s time – makes sense regardless of whether this is seen as a defensive or an aggressive statement. Franz Ferdinand assassinated at Sarajevo by members of the ‘Black Hand’, orchestrated from within the Serbian Military Intelligence.