Objective 2: Strategies for breeding for future climatic conditions, variability and extremes, including novel climates Understanding and evaluating the response of different varieties/crops to climate change in time and space and generation of comprehensive strategies for crop improvement through a combination of modeling, expert consultation and stakeholder dialogue Breeders, physiologists, agronomists Extension services, farmers Reduction of vulnerability to climate variability and change Objective 3: Targeted identification and enhanced deployment and conservation of species and genetic diversity livestock, fish, trees) for increased resilience and productivity under conditions resulting from climate change. Portfolio of information sources with new knowledge, guidelines and germplasm available for using genetic and species diversity to enhance adaptation and resilience to changing climate Breeders, extension services, farmers, agricultural development organizations, NARES, government agencies, conservation organizations Farmers Reduction of vulnerability and sustained production despite climate variability and change Plan for Objective 1: dapted farming systems for changing climate conditions in space and time through the development of improved crops, livestock and natural resources management technologies and tools Year Activities Products Assumptions Target Regions Institutes Involved
2011 Compilation of existing databases from multiple sources (i.e. multi-site data of a range of crop varieties) Platform for multisite trials of technologies and varieties established Developing countries 2011 Identification and establishment of technologies to be tested and develop across a range of pilot sites New production system technologies developed which contribute directly to enhanced adaptive capacity in farming systems Developing countries CGIAR centers in with other themes in the MP. 2012 Modeling methodologies to outscale the potential of individual adaptation options across a wide-range of geographies (i.e. use of analogies). Explicit knowledge of the potential application domains for agricultural practices, technologies, and policies, and knowledge on best means of transferring these technologies and ensuring their adoption Developing countries centers, strong with NARS and with ARIs 2013 Characterization of climate-adaptation options in target regions. Portfolio of adaptation options with potential for adapting production systems identified, developed and/or tested Sub-set of target regions of developing country conditions 2013 Understanding of institutional arrangements, policies and mechanisms that enhance the adaptive capacity of households to adopt new farming practices, strategies and behaviors that reduce their vulnerability in the Document synthesizing institutional arrangements, policies and mechanisms for improving the adaptive capacity of agricultural sector actors; what is working where, how and why. Building of regional and national
Plan for Objective 2: Strategies for breeding for future climatic conditions, variability and extremes, including novel climates Year Activities Products Assumptions Target Regions Institutes Involved 2011 Ensuring that research and policy organizations are actively engaged from the early stages of the research in both design and post-project implementation of the strategies developed. meetings with key stakeholders to mainstream strategies into workplans and existing breeding programs Global 2011 Development of a range of crop modeling approaches to model biotic and abiotic constraints under decadal futures from 2020 to 2050. of modeling approaches developed and validated for assessing future constraints to crop production and the design of virtual crops. Global with components of , integrate closely with ongoing and future Generation Challenge Program (GCP) molecular and breeding platforms. CGIAR centers, NARS, ARI breeding institutes, private sector breeding companies. 2012 Design of a set of “virtual crops” and assessment of their efficacy in addressing the likely future conditions in terms of the economic, Detailed strategies and plans of action for crop improvement developed, incorporating portfolio of national, Global CG-centres, ARI modeling groups, NARS scientists
Enhanced knowledge, products and evidence to support the development and delivery of climate information services that best meet the risk management needs of agricultural Global, regional and national climate service providers, communication intermediaries (e.g., NARES, development NGOs, media, ICT industry) Rural communities, agricultural inputs and rural finance providers, agribusiness Enhanced climate-related risks leading to more resilient farming systems, more secure rural livelihoods, more effective and less costly crisis response. Objective 1: Year Activities Products Assumptions Target Region Institutes Involved 201 Analyze priority knowledge and methodology gaps for index-based risk transfer products, and formulate value addition strategy Scoping and strategy report on priority knowledge and methodology gaps for index-based risk transfer, advantages and strateg 2011 Characterize climate-related risk and survey current formal and informal responses to risk Report on responses to risk; Website with farmers’ stories; Media brief of findings East Africa West Africa IGP TBD Analyze determinants and risk impacts of existing cultivar and livelihood portfolios, and potential improvements Report and journal article examining risk impacts of existing cultivar and livelihood portfolios, and potential improvements East Africa West Africa IGP
2012 Survey current use, unmet demand and bottlenecks to climate-related information for local-scale agricultural risk management Report and journal article on use, demand and bottlenecks to climate related information East Africa West Africa TBD Report and journal article on improved local-level risk management strategies East Africa West Africa IGP TBD Objective 2: Year Activities Products Assumptions Target Region Institutes Involved Analyze alternative rules to manage food crises and price volatility, in response to current information, and potential lead time and accuracy improvements Report, brief and journal article on rules to manage food crises and price volatility IFPRI, Cornell U. Scoping study and stakeholder consultation on the current state, trends, and emerging opportunities to incorporate advance information into management of climate-related food crises and food price fluctuations Scoping report and workshop report on current state, trends, emerging opportunities to incorporate advance information into management of climate-related food cries and price fluctuations Cornell U.to lead 2011 Analyze drivers and impacts of food price volatility Report brief and journal article on drivers and impacts of food price volatility East Africa West Africa IGP IFPRI
2012 Engage select food security organizations to explore, develop, evaluate new response strategies based on long-lead prediction; and design improved information Journal article, policy brief, media on new response strategies based on long-lead prediction Cornell Objective 3: Year Activities Products Assumptions Target Region Institutes Involved 2011 Review current climate information products, services and delivery mechanisms and their use to manage agricultural risk Report and brief on current information products, services, delivery, use to manage risk East Africa West Africa IGP ACMAD, IRI 2011 Evaluate ICT-based and institutional information delivery models for effectiveness, equitability, relevance, transferability and scalability; and formulate a strategy Report on effectiveness, equitability, relevance, transferability and scalability of ICT delivery systems East Africa West Africa IGP Kiwanja.net, UCAR, Microsoft Research Develop and evaluate calibrated, gridded, historic meteorological data sets for seasonal forecast & crop forecasting applications 2011: Calibrated rainfall data and methodology paper; Proof of concept report for T and SRAD 2012: Full validated data set; Journal paper East Africa West Africa IGP AGRHYMET, NMA (Ethiopia), IRI, U Reading, others
2013 Assess for climate information technical and institutional bottlenecks to the production and delivery of useful information and potential for new or enhanced products and services for risk management Report and on needs for climate information, technical and institutional bottlenecks, potential new products and services East Africa West Africa IGP Develop improved methodology and a platform for long –lead forecasting of crop and forage production, and biological threats for data-sparse environments Crop monitoring and forecasting platform; Journal article Theme 3. Key final products Intermediate users users Outcomes Impacts Objective 1 (a) the net emissions of different scenarios, (b) mitigation implications of alternative adaptation strategies, and (c) promising options for mitigation that mitigation, poverty alleviation, food security and SBSTA Working Group, IPCC, ESSP, academics, GECAFS, CARE, the World Bank, IFAD and other donors AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and land use) ministries, planning agencies, development organizations 1. Decision makers choose agricultural development strategies that create synergies between mitigation and other policy goals 2. Investment in agricultural development related to mitigation increases by
environmental heath. egional policy and research . 10% 1. platform and clearinghouse identifying mitigation impacts of on-farm practices and landscape-level implications. 2. the direct and indirect economic and environmental costs and benefits from agricultural mitigation. 3. Systems for GHG monitoring and accounting at farm and landscape level 4. Validated simulation models that can be used to identify the mitigation potential of different options. CGIAR centers, Global Carbon Project, Terrestrial Carbon Group, Winrock International, Voluntary Carbon Standard, private sector UNFCCC, national planning and AFOLU agencies, international development agencies, carbon market investors 10% reduc emissions from agricultural landscapes and enhanced livelihoods Objective 3 1. institutional arrangements market-based instruments, policies and incentives that can improve access of the poor to mitigation benefits, with empirical Farmers’ organizations, intermediaries and buyers in the carbon market, international and national policy research organisations such as World Bank Biocarbon Fund, Voluntary Carbon Standard, Climate, Community and Biodiversity Alliance, donors Participation by smallholders in project increases by 25% istribution of benefits includes at least 25% of
indications of the impacts of these benefits on poverty alleviation and GHG emissions. EcoAgriculture and Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM) smallholders in project area Year Activities Products Assumptions Target Regions Institutes Involved 2011 1. Create a global platform for exchange and synthesis of information about innovations in agricultural mitigation. 2. Develop alternative scenarios to develop strategies for agricultural intensification and adaptation in different regions. Involve decision makers to share scenarios, models and consideration of alternative strategies. 3. Assess barriers to entry and factors affecting benefits from the carbon market for differentiated social groups, including women, and 1. Web-based platform and clearinghouse identifying mitigation impacts of practices and their implications. 2. Report on: (a) the net emissions of different scenarios, (b) mitigation implications of alternative adaptation strategies, and (c) identification of promising options for mitigation that maximize the ratio for mitigation, poverty alleviation, food security and environmental heath. 3. Systems for GHG monitoring and 1. Interest and willingness of partners to contribute findings to platform 2. Agricultural intensification will be necessary to meet future food demand 3. Adaptation will be necessary to produce food in a changing climate 4. Barriers exist to smallholder participation in carbon markets 5. Institutions for management of carbon will exist Global, East and West Africa, Amazon Basin, Southeast Asia CGIAR centers, ESSP, Global Carbon Project, University of Vermont, Oxford University, Leeds University, University of Edinburgh, World Bank, CARE, Ecoagriculture, IIED, FAO, developing country partners tbd
the range of emerging institutional arrangements and incentives for better inclusion and benefits. 4. Identify promising market-based instruments, policies and institutional arrangements. 5. Develop methods and build capacity to understand socioeconomic baseline conditions where farmers are participating in the carbon market. accounting at farm and landscape level 2012 1. Measure GHG fluxes and develop MRV, working with partners in the GEC community 1. Synthesis report and scientific article on agricultural development pathways 1. Report, website, policy briefs and scientific article evaluating the potential direct and indirect economic and environmental costs and 1. Investors see markets as profitable 2. Cost effective measures and MRV are possible 3. Carbon market participation and potential benefits will be uneven among regions and farmers Global, East and West Africa, Plain, Amazon Basin, Southeast Asia centers, ESSP, Global Carbon Project, University of Vermont, World Bank, CARE, Ecoagriculture, IIED, FAO, developing country partners tbd
benefits from agricultural mitigation. 2. Report, website, policy briefs and scientific article identifying promising institutions, market-based mechanisms and policies 4. Farmers will participate in carbon markets if incentives are sufficient Objective 3. Institutional arrangements and incentives that enable smallholder farmers to participate effectively in carbon markets and reduce GHGs 2013 1. Identify a set of target practices that produce outcomes at the household and landscape level 2. Assess impacts on poverty alleviation, food security and environmental health at multiple scales 3. Work with field-based partners to develop ways of communicating data that farmers and decision makers can use to change their land use 1. Validated simulation models that can be used to identify the mitigation potential of different options. 2. Synthesis report on institutional arrangements market-based instruments, policies and incentives that can improve access of the poor to mitigation benefits, with empirical indications of the impacts of these benefits on poverty alleviation and GHG 1. Outcomes that increase mitigation, livelihood benefits, and environmental benefits are possible 2. Sufficient data exists to validate simulation models 3. Institutional arrangements market-based instruments, policies and incentives exist and have had sufficient experience to show results Global, East and West Africa, Plain, Amazon Basin, Southeast Asia CGIAR centers, ESSP, Global Carbon Project, University of Vermont, World Bank, IFAD, Ecoagriculture, IIED, FAO, START, AFOLU ministries, developing country partners tbd
practices. emissions. 3. website, capacity building events and workshops (one per region) for the design of incentive mechanisms and institutional arrangements. Theme 4. Fill title Need to rearrange and relabel objectives Key final products Intermediate users Final users Outcomes Impacts Objective 1: cenarios to help planning under uncertainty A coherent set of scenarios to 2030 and 2050 that examines potential development scenarios under a changing climate and differing pathways of economic development Other Themes in ; other ; regional partners Global Adaptation Fund, UNREDD, the World Bank, IPCC, UNFCCC/SBSTA, key bilateral donors developing adaptation and mitigation strategies, large international NGOs, key regional and national actors Food security enhanced and emissions reduced in smallholder farming areas Objective 2: ho is vulnerable and why Global and regional maps showing current vulnerable populations in relation to food security, and to 2030 and 2050 Other Themes in ; other ; regional partners. As above Donor, NGO and international organisation agendas and programs made more effective
2012 Information platform development Scenario and food security dialogues and new information partnerships developed and documented West Africa, East Africa, initially National and regional research partners and stakeholders 2013 Integrated assessment Set of information products on likely climate change impacts on agricultural systems, and promising adaptation and mitigation options All regions National and regional partners, , other