Attachment 1 – Initial draft list of high level scenarios Last Updated: September 2017 Valid Contingency Scenarios The following are valid scenarios the CPWG agreed need to be developed under the Industry Contingency Plan. Ref # Scenario Description Likelihood (High/ Medium/ Low) Impact (High/ Medium/ Low) Priority Theme Trigger(s) Action(s) Accountability S01 RoLR event occurs during Systems Cutover period (30 Nov – 4 Dec) Low Low Low Market Settlements AER declares RoLR event between 30 Nov to 4 Dec AEMO / AER S02 RoLR event occurs during the transition period prior to commencement of Systems Cutover (22 Nov – 26 Nov) Low Medium – will affect preparation activities for systems cutover Medium Market Settlements AER declares RoLR event between 22 Nov to 26 Nov AEMO / AER S03 Natural disaster or emergency event occurs during the transition and cutover period (e.g. flood, bushfire, cyclone, system black event) Low Medium/High – higher likelihood in QLD as cutover occurs during to storm/cyclone season Medium Emergency Management Emergency event declared by Government Emergency declared by LNSP DNSPs S06 The B2B e-Hub is unavailable or AEMO’s B2B systems fail to come back within the cutover timeframe Low High – will cause B2B transactions in the NEM to cease for an unspecified period Medium IT Systems AEMO announces cutover failure AEMO S07 One or more retailers systems fail to come back within the cutover timeframe Medium Low/Medium – impact will be greater if a tier 1 retailer’s system can’t cutover in time Medium IT Systems Retailer(s) advise AEMO of cutover failure Retailer(s) send Market Notice to advise of systems failure Retailer(s) implements contingency measures Retailer S08 One or more distributors systems fail to come back within the cutover timeframe Medium Medium/High Medium IT Systems Distributor(s) advise AEMO of cutover failure Distributor(s) send Market Notice to advise of systems failure Distributor(s) implement contingency measures DNSPs S09 MSATS and AEMO’s B2M systems fail to come back within the cutover timeframe Low High – will cause B2M transactions in the NEM to cease for an unspecified period Medium IT Systems AEMO announces MSATS cutover failure AEMO to implement contingency measures Market Participants implement contingency measures AEMO
S31 A party raises a ‘fast track’ Rule Change Request which amends the effective date Compliance AEMC publishes rule change Transition and cutover plan is updated based on new date Market Trial completes as scheduled, light support provided between 3 Nov and new effective date for industry bi-lateral testing No additional testing planned AEMC / All parties S32 A party raises an ‘fast track’ Rule Change Request which is challenged and becomes a normal Rule Change which can’t finish before the effective date Compliance AEMC publishes rule change A single party objects to ‘fast track’ rule change proposal Existing transition and cut-over plan remains No change to go-live date AEMO testing plan completes as scheduled AEMC From UE Negative media reporting- High profile and highly critical media reports build up after implementation The CPWG noted this is not a contingency scenario. AEMO, AEMC and AER are working together with industry bodies to develop some basic information that retailers can use to inform consumers and any interested stakeholders on PoC. Customer A series of negative customer outcomes feed into a general negative media climate toward the energy industry Spokesperson or persons be identified as key media contacts – depending on the nature of issues being raised.