CYCLONE NARGIS OF MAY 2-3 2008 IN MYANMAR (BURMA) - George Pararas-Carayannis CYCLONE "NARGIS" OF MAY 2-3, 2008 IN MYANMAR (BURMA) George Pararas-Carayannis Introduction Cyclone Nargis was one of the deadliest and most destructive tropical cyclones to ever hit Myanmar (formerly Burma). The cyclone was responsible for unprecedented loss of life and destruction. It was particularly devastating in the low-lying and densely populated Ayeyarwady (Irrawaddy) River delta region of Myanmar. Cyclone Nargis devastation at Dedaye Formation and Path of Cyclone Nargis April 28, 2008: As of April 28 the storm system named Nargis remained almost stationary in the Bay of Bengal, at about 1210 km off Cox’s Bazar coast, 1280 km away from Chittagong, 1200 km away from Mongla, and about 550 kms east of Chennai, India.

As of 21:00 PM UTC the storm was centered near 13.0N, 85.5E. April 29, 2008: As early as April 29, 2008 Nargis was classified as a severe tropical depression that was quickly turning into a cyclonic storm system with the potential to strike either Bangladesh or Myanmar within four or five days. At the time Nargis was over 1,100km away from the Bangladesh coast. The wind speed within 54 kilometers of the storm center was about 62 kmph, with gusts expected to rise up to 88 kmph. Nargis was closely watched, as it was the first cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal since Cyclone Sidr had struck Bangladesh in November of 2007 with wind speeds of 210kmph. Sidr had killed more than 3,000 people and had also caused damage to huge assets and crops.

Tracks of Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (India Met Office) Since there is a tendency for most storm systems to move in a northerly direction in the Bay of Bengal, there was concern that Nargis could intensify further and move in a northerly direction towards Bangladesh or the Indian coast. There was also concern that Nargis could change direction, move in a northeast direction and possibly hit the Myanmar coast. April 30, 2008 - By April 30th, Nargis remained practically stationary in the west central and adjoining east of the central Bay of Bengal, laying near 15.0N 87.5E, or 850 kms west-southwest of Sandoway (Myanmar), but moving north very slowly. At 18:00 PM UTC, Nargis was labeled as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (980 hPa). Gathering strength, its minimum sustained wind speed ranged between 90kmph and 120kmph within the 54km radius of its center.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center were 65 knots with an estimated central pressure of 980 hPa. Satellite imagery showed broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds between 13.5N to 19.0N and 85.5E to 89.5E in association with the system. It was still unknown where it was going to make landfall. Already, the Met Office in Dhaka had declared Nargis as a severe cyclonic storm since its wind speed had exceeded 89kmph. There were expectations that the wind speed could exceed 120kmph, in which case the storm would have been categorized as “very severe”. However, such winds speeds had not reached that level yet. May 1, 2008: Nargis was still almost stationary on the West Central Bay of Bengal but intensified further while moving very slowly towards the North Eastern Bay of Bengal.

At the time, the eye of the storm system was about 1,000 kilometers (km) southwest of Chittagong port, 935km southwest of Cox’s Bazar port, and 875km south-southwest of Mongla port. May 2, 2008: A special bulletin of the Met Office in Dhaka, stated that the eye of the tropical storm was about 1,000 kilometers (km) southwest of Chittagong port, 935km southwest of Cox’s Bazar port, and 875km south-southwest of Mongla port, with a minimum wind speed between 90 and 120 kilometers per hour (kmph), within a 54km radius of its center. By the evening hours of May 2nd, Nargis changed its course eastward and started to cross the Myanmar coast. At this time the storm system was centered about 210km west of Haing Gyi Island at the mouth of the Irrawaddy River and about 430km southwest of Yangon.

Haing Gyi Island begun being inundated by a storm surge that reached 3 to 3.5 meter (10-12 feet). Nargis gained further strength and begun exhibiting erratic behavior as it started to cross the Irawaddy river delta coast at about 6:00pm (local time) on Friday, May 2. Cyclone Nargis Path over the Irrawaddy River Delta Region (web graphic) The Winds at Landfall When it made direct landfall on Maynmar, Nargis was an upper category 3, bordering on category 4, storm system with winds of 130 -135 mph. Throughout Friday night (May 2) and Saturday morning (May 3) it continued battering the Irrawaddy delta with winds of up to 150 mile (240 km/h) an hour and during that time interval it dumped 20 inches of rain. Traveling over land the winds eventually diminished in strength. When it struck the capital city of Rangoon (Yangon), Nargis had diminished to a Category 1 storm, with maximum winds of 80 mph.

At 5:30am local time on Saturday, May 3, the winds at the Yangon airport were clocked at 69 mph, but with gusts of up to 138 mph., at which time the measuring anemometer there failed. More than likely, greater gusts were experienced in the airport area and elsewhere near Rangoon. The Cyclone Surge Maximum reported flooding by the cyclone’s surge was at least 4 meters (13 feet), but probably greater in certain areas of the Irrawaddy Delta region. The destructiveness of the surge resulted form Nargis’ azimuthal direction of approach from the east to the southern tip of the peninsula fronting the delta region - which resulted in maximum winds having a counterclockwise circulation in the shallow offshore continental shelf area. These counterclockwise winds and the coastal geomorphology of the region contributed to a water pile-up effect and the resulting high storm surge into the bay that flooded the coastal and low-lying inland areas. Had Nargis made landfall further north or made a crossing further south of this region, the surge and the destruction would have been much less.

Also, the change in the azimuthal path near the river delta region from near east to a northeast direction contributed to the water pile up effect and the resulting high surge. Death Toll and Damages The cities of Yangon, Irrawaddy, Pegu and the states of Karen and Mon Worse were the most severely affected regions of Myanmar. There was extensive flooding and destruction of boats, homes and structures. All utilities were down. The destruction was particularly extensive because most structures in this region are poorly built. Worse hit was the densely populated Irrawaddy River delta region. This is a low-lying coastal region, which is highly vulnerable to storm surges. Reportedly, entire villages disappeared. Most of the deaths resulted from drowning due to the high storm surge. As of Tuesday May 6, 2008, the total death toll in Myanmar was greater than 20,000, with thousands more people missing. At least 10,000 people were killed in the township of Bogalay alone.

As of May 12, 2008 the death toll reported by the Maynmar government was 22,400 but the actual death toll was estimated to more than 100,000. Cyclone Nargis is the deadliest natural disaster to hit Myanmar in recent history. Two NASA satellite photos show the devastating effect of Cyclone Nargis over the Irrawaddy delta region of Myanmar. The image on the left taken in April 15, 2008 shows the Irrawaddy River flowing south and splitting into numerous tributaries. Rivers and lakes are sharply defined against a backdrop of vegetation and agricultural land. The image on the right was taken on May 5, 2008 and shows the entire coastal plain being flooded after Cyclone Nargis direct hit. The city of Yangon (located by the red rectangle) was almost completely surrounded by floods. Flooding by Cyclone Nargis surge at the Irrawaddy Delta. Non-flooded land of higher elevation seen as islands from NASA satellite. Historical Cyclones and Cyclone Surges in Myanmar Although not frequently, cyclones and their surges have struck Myanmar in the past.

However, none of the past historic cyclones was as severe as Nargis in terms of destruction. The most recent event was the powerful Cyclone Mala which, on April 28, 2006, swept ashore over Myanmar with winds near 210 kilometers per hour (130 miles per hour). The storm inundated the country with heavy rain and left widespread flooding in its wake. According to the Myanmar state media, one person died and 21 others were injured by this storm. Another recent event, Cyclone Gwa of May 4, 1982, was a Category 4 storm system with winds up to 140 mph winds. However, Gwa made landfall on an area further north of Nargis. Although, Gwa’s surge was as high - at about 4 meters - it was confined and had a far lesser destructive impact. Gwa’s winds were unable to pile up as much volume of water along the southern shore of the Irrawaddy River Delta. Reportedly only five people lost their lives to Gwa – although a higher number is suspected.

Another tropical cyclone that struck Myanmar on May 7, 1975 was a Category 1 storm system. No details are available, but according to sketchy reports, 187 people were killed. According to a United Nations database, another windstorm (probably a cyclone) killed about 2,700 people in 1926. No Warning Issued As early as April 29, 2008 Nargis had beenreadily identified as a tropical depression that was turning into a dangerous cyclonic storm system, having the potential to strike either Bangladesh or Myanmar within four or five days. Although Nargis was still over 1,100km away from the Bangladesh coast, precautions were taken in that country and shelters were activated. However, no similar precautions or warnings were reported from Myanmar. Dr. George Pararas-Carayannis:. Bio Summary .. Publications .. Recent Publications .. Recent Books .. Miscellaneous Writings .. Consulting Services ............ Web Design by Dr. Carolyn Carayannis ï¿½ Copyright 2008 / all rights reserved.

© Copyright 1963-2007 George Pararas-Carayannis / all rights reserved / Information on this site is for viewing and personal information only - protected by copyright. Any unauthorized use or reproduction of material from this site without written permission is prohibited. Material included at the website links above is for informative and educational purposes and for disaster preparedness only. Any predictions of large earthquakes, destructive tsunamis, or any other natural disasters presented in these pages are based primarily on statistical determinations of the historical recurrence frequencies of such events. Such historical/statistical approaches are used only for long-term predictions. There is no intent by the author to predict or forecast any type of natural disaster or to frighten people. Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis - May 2008 | ReliefWeb Myanmar: Tropical Cyclone Nargis - May 2008 Glide: ? Refine the results by adding specific criteria. Select an operator. Use "WITH" and "WITHOUT" operators to create a new group. Select a category, then start typing a word to see the suggestions. Click or press enter to select the suggestion. Once finished, click "Apply options" to launch the search.

Optional: click on an operator to choose a different one. Optional: drag and drop criteria to reorganize the selection. Optional: press "backspace" to remove the last criterion. Optional: double click on a criterion to remove it. List Download PDF (528.39 KB) Recurrent earthquakes, floods, typhoons, and volcanoes present significant challenges to vulnerable populations in the East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) region. Some countries also face civil unrest and associated humanitarian impacts, as well as limited government capacity to respond to disasters. Between FY 2007 and FY 2016, USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/ OFDA) and USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (USAID/ FFP) provided humanitarian assistance in response to a diverse range of natural and complex emergencies in the region.

10 Aug 2016 description Cyclone Nargis - Oxford Burma Alliance Human Rights Issues _ Click to see an interactive map , created by the New York Times in 2008, that graphs the progress of the hurricane topographically and with before and after shots Cyclone Nargis _ On Friday May 2, 2008, Cyclone Nargis first touched land at peak strength near the mouth of the Irrawaddy Delta Division of Burma. The cyclone, which had been estimated to reach up to 215 km/h, reached Burma as a Category 4 hurricane. The following day, the Burmese government officially declared five divisions as main disaster areas: Rangoon, Bago, Karen, Mon, and Irrawaddy. Immediately following the disaster, there was much criticism of the Burmese military government, which did little to warn and evacuate those expected to be in the direct path of the storm.

Image: Karen Human Rights Group; ReliefWeb _The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization can now estimate that at the time Nargis hit, it devastated 65% of the country’s rice paddies and, because it hit at the height of the growing season, it also ruined rice already brought into warehouses. Nargis also blew away over 700,000 homes, killed three-fourths of livestock, and sank half the Burmese fishing fleet. With a rising death toll, food and water shortages, and the possibility of disease, the situation in Burma needed critical and immediate attention. On May 5, 2008, the United Nations and international aid agencies met in Bangkok to discuss possible aid disbursement strategies. A decision was reached that Thailand would co-ordinate responses to the disaster. However, during the first two to three weeks following the disaster, the regime frustrated international attempts at executing relief operations, and internally undermined the process by denying workers access to affected areas. Then First Lady Laura Bush went so far as to criticise the military junta for a slow response, urging it to accept offers of United States aid.

Similarly, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Kin Moon warned of the “dire consequences” behind the government’s decisions. Neither statement was acknowledged by the Burmese military junta. The international political situation grew so tense that by May 7, France even suggested ignoring Burma’s national sovereignty and invoking a special UN “responsibility to protect” clause to get aid to cyclone victims without internal approval. Despite mounting frustration, other countries dismissed the idea. Instead, the United Nations launched an appeal for aid, asking for an estimated USD 187 million. Amongst the top pledges were the United Kingdom, Japan, the United States, France, and Australia. Alongside such efforts, the UN began to pressure Burma to speed up the issuing of visas to foreign relief experts—dozens of whom continued to wait in Thailand. The Burmese government responded by saying that while it wanted both money and supplies, it did not want foreign aid workers within its borders. Officials further demanded rights to manage the aid distribution themselves. _On May 11, 2008, Burma officially ceased its restrictions on aid. A flood of aid shipments began to be sent, starting with the first US military flight to land in Rangoon the following day.

Alas, the United States was not allowed to distribute its aid, and several other shipments became delayed due to governmental red-tape. The result of stunted aid and mismanagement of funds are thought to have contributed to worsened standards of living, disease, and a high number of deaths—all underestimated by the regime. Image: Burma Campaign UK _In fact, the Burmese government’s final numbers estimated the death toll at 136,000 people by the end of the year 2008. However, many international organizations have continually disputed the claim. Amongst these organizations was the United Nations, which as early as May 14, 2008 released its official estimate to be at 140,000, a huge disparity from the May 14 numbers given by Burmese officials, which put the death toll at 38,000. At the time of the disaster, poor evacuation and relief-aid put many more in danger for disease, and made it difficult to account for those missing. Still, most foreign aid workers were unable to enter the country. Aid shipments continued to encounter border delays.

Neither would be able to flow freely into the country until the end of the month. With estimates by the United Nations that between 1.6 to 2.5 million locals were in need of immediate help, top aid agencies continued to unsuccessfully pressure Burma to hand over control of distribution services, especially after reports were released that aid was not reaching the worst hit areas. Finally, two weeks after the Cyclone hit, military leader Than Shwe visited a refugee camp outside Rangoon. Shortly after Burma asked for and was denied a loan from the World Bank, which refused saying that the country had no solvency after the government had stopped paying its debt in 1998. Unable to procure a loan, Burma allowed ASEAN member nations to send envoys with doctors and relief workers—a momentary relief for locals and a small success of international efforts. Cyclone Nargis viewed from space (Image: Nasa) _On May 21, Burma requested over USD 11 billion in aid for victims from the international community and generous donors. Fear of fund mismanagement, and concerns over the curtailing of aid personnel, however, caused many donors to look upon the request wearily.

Finally, after a meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon the following day, military leader Than Shwe promised all aid workers would be allowed into Burma in exchange for more aid. Seven days later, on May 29, all aid relief worker visas were granted. In response, more money was sent to Burma throughout the year 2008, including a generous donation of USD 58 million from the European Union. _However, the incoming relief workers did not resolve nor expedite the process of reconstruction in the area. Reports continued for months after on the situation left behind by Cyclone Nargis from international media. Amongst some of the more disturbing news stories released included accounts that Burma’s military regime had forced many cyclone survivors to do menial labour in exchange for food. Many international human rights groups further reported on the government’s campaign to evict displaced citizens from aid shelters, and discriminatory practices against affected minorities. Some, like the ethnic minorities in Karen State, who make up 60% of the Irrawaddy River Delta region, were denied basic resources such as food, medical care, and fresh water. To date, Cyclone Nargis’ aftermath continues to haunt the affected people of Burma.

As late as May 2011, the Burmese government continued to ask for seed money from the international community to fuel reconstruction efforts. Unfortunately, accusations of corruption and mismanagement of funds by the Burmese government from members of the international community continue to make donors reluctant to provide aid without restrictions and conditionality. Burma: remembering Cyclone Nargis | World news | The Guardian First person Burma: remembering Cyclone Nargis On 2 May 2008 Cyclone Nargis struck Burma, causing the worst natural disaster in the country's history. It caused the death of over 140,000 people and damaged the lives of a further two million, as well as destroying 85 per cent of seed stocks and two million livestock. Below, we publish survival stories from two people whose lives were changed forever by Nargis, and who are now receiving counselling set up by Medecins Sans Frontieres Homes near Yangon in Burma, destroyed by Cyclone Nargis.

Photograph: Reuters Friday 1 May 2009 04.00 EDT First published on Friday 1 May 2009 04.00 EDT Share on Messenger Close Nyein Chan, 27, was married with five children and lived with his parents and extended family. When Cyclone Nargis struck he was widowed, and all but one of his children died. Following counselling, he is now working regularly, sleeps well, his mood has improved and his physical symptoms have subsided Before Nargis, I had a happy family and enough income, but my family and possessions were all destroyed in a single night and I cannot come to terms with that. During Nargis, my family members and I escaped from our home by boat. Unfortunately, our boat was destroyed by strong winds and waves and all my family members fell into the water. My children were crying and shouting for help. First, I carried my grandfather and two sons to a big tree, then I went back to get my wife and other children. On the way, I was hit by strong waves and was carried further away. I eventually came to a big tree and climbed up it.

I had no longyi [traditional sarong] and I stayed in that tree the whole night. The next morning, I went back to the place where I had left my wife and children the previous night, but there was nothing. They were all gone. Then I went back to the big tree where I had left my grandfather and two sons, but found my grandfather and only one of my sons. My other son was missing – he had fallen down into the water in the night. I am very sad and upset because I could not save my family. After two days, I heard that my eldest daughter had not died but had been saved by one of our neighbours and was in Bogalay camp. I went to the camp but did not find her. She had died during Nargis. After Nargis, I suffered from persistent abdominal pains and headaches. I could not sleep well at night and had no desire to eat. I went to Bogalay and Yangon hospitals and was treated for hepatitis. I feel very sad because six members of my family died in Nargis. I lost my home, wife, daughter and sons. I had no desire to live or work. I had no interest in anything.

When I missed my family, I took to drinking alcohol heavily. I could not save all my family members. I have only one son now. Everyone else is dead. I was very upset and felt depressed. I did not stay in my old village, I moved to my elder brother's village. Now my only surviving son and I live with my brother's family. I sometimes dream about my wife and children. When I do, I can no longer sleep so I wake up to smoke and drink. I want to live with my family as we were living before Nargis but I've lost everything. Sabai, 35, was married with five children when Nargis hit. She lost three of her children and all of her property. After counselling, Sabai's strange dreams have subsided and she believes that her children have finally reached a good place – but she is worried about the upcoming monsoon season because she fears that another cyclone might hit During Nargis my family and I stayed in the water the whole night. I had five children and the waters washed three of them away. I lost all the property we had before the cyclone. I feel very sad for my dead children and I don't sleep well.

I don't like eating and I am not interested in doing any work. I suffer from pains like headaches, backaches, general body pains, and loss of concentration. When it is windy I don't eat anything and cannot sleep. I get angry very easily and quite often. I do not like leaving home or seeing my neighbours or other villagers. I keep thinking about my dead children and cry a lot. When I think about the cyclone I get very upset and cry. The neighbours started to gossip that I was either pretending to be or actually was crazy and this made me even more angry. After the cyclone, I had very strange dreams of my children. I dreamt that my children were asking me to follow them. I got very scared. My husband tried to get me to sleep, and supported me throughout the night. I felt like I was in hell. Most days I go to the graveyard to mourn my children. I am worried they did not go to a good place and this makes me less interested in my remaining children, my husband and my business. I went to a fortune teller and he told me that the children will go to a good place because they are innocent, but I still get unusual and strange dreams.

• During the last year Nyein Chan and Sabai have benefited from mental health programmes set up by Medecins Sans Frontieres in Bogalay Township, in the Delta Hurricanes: Science and Society: 2008- Cyclone Nargis 2008- Cyclone Nargis Home > History > Featured Storms > Storms in the 2000s > 2008- Cyclone Nargis 2008- Cyclone Nargis In May 2008, Myanmar (formerly known as Burma) experienced its greatest natural disaster, Cyclone Nargis. The tropical system, which would become Nargis developed from a low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal during the last week of April. Early on 27 April, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared the system had strengthened to a tropical depression about 748 km (465 mi) east-southeast of Madras, India. The depression slowly moved north-northwest at about 11 km/h (7 mph) as convective banding around its center increased.

On 28 April, the system was centered 547 kilometers (340 miles) east of Madras and the IMD upgraded the storm to a cyclone , Nargis. This is the equivalent of a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale [link to Section 2 Content]. Due to the presence of high pressure ridges to the northwest and southeast, the cyclone remained stationary over the warm Bay of Bengal on 28 April, allowing it to intensify further. By the morning of 29 April, the cyclone had winds of 161 km/h (100 mph), making it equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane or a very severe cyclonic storm, as regarded by the IMD. Later that day, drier air became entrained in the cyclone and, as a result, its convection decreased and the cyclone weakened. It began to move northeastward and was downgraded to a tropical storm . Satellite image of Cyclone Nargis as a Category 2 storm. Source: NASA On 1 May, Nargis began to rapidly intensify and track eastward, returning to cyclone status.

By 2 May, the cyclone reached its peak status with winds of 217 km/h (135 mph) (equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane). At this intensity, Cyclone Nargis made landfall in southwest Myanmar on 2 May, near the town of Wagon in the Ayeyarwady Division. The storm moved inland, but remained along the coast of the Irrawaddy Delta, which prevented the rapid weakening traditionally exhibited by cyclones as they moved over land . Structural damage largest city and former capital, Yangon, winds were still 129 km/h (80 mph) (Category 1 strength). After turning to the northeast, and encountering rough terrain along Myanmar’s border with Thailand, the system dissipated on of 3 May. It is estimated that at least 2.4 million people were severely affected by this cyclone. Structural damage throughout Myanmar was extensive, causing over a million to become homeless after the event. In the first few days following the cyclone, as many as 260,000 people were living in camps throughout the Irrawaddy River Delta.

The cyclone’s heavy rains and 3.6 m (12 ft) storm surge caused widespread flooding, destroying 90-95% of the buildings in the low-lying delta. Floodwaters penetrated an estimated 40-50 km (24-31 mi) inland from the coast. Farmland, livestock, and fisheries were all destroyed. Although the cyclone’s true death toll may never be known, well over 90,000 people were confirmed dead. In the southwestern town of Labutta, 80,000 people were killed. An additional 55,000 people were originally estimated to be missing, and to date having not been recovered (they are presumed dead). It is feared that between hundreds of thousands and a million people may have possibly lost their lives in this disaster, which is comparable to the death toll from the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. In all, over $10 billion (2008 USD) in damage was estimated as a result of the cyclone, making Nargis the costliest cyclone to have occurred in the North Indian Ocean basin.

Notable for this cyclone was the local government’s resistance to international aid. The military Junta did not want foreign personnel, including relief workers, or their aid in the disaster area. On 8 May, the Myanmar government representation from the United States formally asked the United Nations (UN) for help; however the Myanmar government did not endorse international aid and placed harsh restrictions on even the most basic forms of assistance. It was not until 9 May, a full week after the cyclone made landfall, that the Junta finally gave into international pressure to accept outside aid. However, this aid was limited to food, medicine and basic supplies, and foreign aid workers remained banned from the country. International disapproval came harshly against the Myanmar government. With the possibility of 1.5 million facing death in the densely populated disaster area due to starvation, exposure, and disease, world leaders, including the then (and present day) UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-Moon, pleaded with the Junta to allow in additional assistance. Finally, on 19 May, Myanmar granted members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations admittance into the country to deliver aid.

After negotiations between Ban and the Myanmar head of state, Than Shwe, it was declared on 23 May that other international aid workers would be let into the country - a full 3 weeks after the cyclone struck. Fast Facts: Cyclone Nargis was the deadliest cyclone to hit Asia since 1991, when 143,000 people perished in Banglesh from a landfalling cyclone. Cyclone Nargis is at least the second deadliest named cyclone ever recorded globally, behind Typhoon Nina (1975), which killed over 100,000 in China. Because the actual number of deaths is unknown, and over a million could have possibly lost their lives during the event, Cyclone Nargis may end up being the deadliest cyclone on record and also the third deadliest recorded natural disaster behind the Yellow River floods that affected China in 1887 and 1931 killing at least 1.9 million combined. Researchers now believe that Nargis’ 24-hour intensification from a weak Category 1 storm to a Category 4 cyclone was due to a pre-existing, warm ocean feature in the Bay of Bengal.

Here, warm, upper ocean waters extended deeper than normal, and this abnormally deep layer of warm water increased the energy available to the cyclone [link to Section 2 content], fueling its growth by 300%. Similar features in the Gulf of Mexico were responsible for the rapid intensification of hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The Irrawaddy Delta is economically important for Myanmar, and its rich soil has allowed the country to become a major rice exporter. Making landfall during a critical harvest period, Nargis caused significant damage to the area’s winter rice crop. The UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimated that Nargis impacted 65% of the country's paddies. Although subsequent rain and flooding flushed the salt from much of the delta, 50,000 acres remained unfit for planting and were abandoned. Sources: Cyclone Nargis and talk of climate change Published: 5 November 2008 0:00 CET Cyclone Nargis made landfall late into the night of 2 May 2008, leaving 84,500 people dead in its wake and up to 53,800 people missing.

(p18543) Anthony Mwangi, IFRC, Geneva For years now, cyclones have pummelled the western seafront of Myanmar. Disaster preparedness and response measures focused on that part of Myanmar, guided by a historic sequence of events. That changed when a cyclone shifted substantially from its usual path and washed away 115 townships living eastward along the coastal delta region of Myanmar. The cyclone went inland to devastate and rearrange 35 kilometres of Myanmar’s topography. Cyclone Nargis made landfall late into the night of 2 May 2008, leaving 84,500 people dead in its wake and up to 53,800 people missing. According to United Nations estimates, 2.4 million people were affected. With a storm surge of between 3.5 and 7 metres high careening towards Myanmar at wind speeds of up to 194 kph, the cyclone has been rated as one of the deadliest in the North Indian Ocean Basin. There is an amplified intensity of tropical cyclones in Asia that continue to wreck havoc among mostly vulnerable communities.

A case in point is tropical cyclone Sidr, which devastated Bangladesh in 2007. Major hydro-meteorological emergencies such as Hurricane Katrina and other tropical cyclones and floods have raised concern. Climate change? Questions abound today whether Nargis was just another disaster or a result of climate change. A scientific investigation would undoubtedly unearth whether this fits the pattern of rising risks due to climate change. According to the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Guide, published by the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre in The Netherlands, no single disaster or strange weather event can be immediately said to be caused by climate change. “Most extreme events could occur even without climate change, although they would not be so likely to happen,” the guide notes, and adds: “What we can say is that a particular event fits the pattern of rising risks due to climate change.

Complex disasters “Climate change itself will create complex disasters: rising sea levels combined with more intense storms will lead to much more destructive storms surges, and droughts that are rapidly succeeded by floods and insect plagues will be more devastating.” A statement from the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) in India observes that Nargis was “not just a natural disaster, but a human-made disaster caused by climate change.” CSE is an independent public interest organization that focuses on creating awareness about environmental challenges. Scientists have alluded to the fact that most issues related to changing weather patterns are inadvertently caused by human action. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Asia has established that climate change will intensify tropical cyclones. The IPCC notes: “Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.” Early warning The Myanmar emergency solidifies the message that has constantly been echoed by the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement and other humanitarian agencies - that the need for disaster preparedness mechanisms and early warning systems cannot be overemphasized.

The global changes in weather patterns need to be dealt with as a matter of urgency. “We have seen increased changes in sea water temperatures and this means that we should be looking carefully for any unusual occurrences,” says Peter Rees, head of the operations support department at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) in Geneva. “Early warning and early action is the key to dealing with these changing global weather occurrences,” Rees advises. “These could be by preparing staff and volunteers through refresher trainings and equipping them appropriately, pre-positioning relief items, and evacuating communities living along the disaster path.” He further emphasises the need to invest in more water and sanitation equipment, as hydro-meteorological disasters such as Cyclone Nargis increase the risk of waterborne diseases. Steep rise There has been a remarkable growth in the development of forecasts that can help in cyclone predictions and reduce the impact of disasters. Wide scale destruction from disasters has been mitigated through technological advances. Globally, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement has been enhancing its disaster risk reduction responses as a result of increased cyclone activities.

Partnerships with governments, NGOs, meteorological offices, universities and other centres of knowledge, have been mooted. The IFRC has built a partnership with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) to foster closer cooperation on global disaster monitoring. IFRC statistics show that hydro-meteorological disasters globally are on a steep rise. Whether Cyclone Nargis was related to climate change or not, more of these acts of nature may increase in the future and require immediate attention. Map

Question: Which country did cyclone Nargis devastate on 2 May 2008?
Answer: Burma