Punxsutawney Phil: The Groundhog Behind the Myth Punxsutawney Phil: The Groundhog Behind the Myth By Jeanna Bryner, Live Science Managing Editor | February 1, 2010 03:30am ET MORE (Editor's Update, Tuesday, Feb. 2 at 8:15 a.m. ET: Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning, meaning we should brace ourselves for six more weeks of winter.) On Tuesday, Punxsutawney Phil will emerge from a little enclosure under an outdoor stump in the Pennsylvania town that bears his name to let us know if he sees his shadow, which will doom us to six more weeks of winter. While this groundhog gets plenty of attention each Feb. 2, the other 364 days of the year America's most famous furry forecaster spends his time not in the ground but in an enclosure next to the children's section of the Punxsutawney Memorial Library with his "wife" Phyllis and a couple of other groundhogs. "Phil is such an important marmot that humans built his lodgings.

He lives in what we call a zoo, but it's a temperature-controlled space with wood and hay and other natural things in the habitat," said Tom Chapin, editor of Punxsutawney Spirit, a daily newspaper that covers local news, including "everything Phil does." All Punxsutawney Phil does during the year (except on Groundhog Day) is eat, sleep and get his picture taken. But this furry mammal hasn't lost his wild instincts, it seems. One year in the past, the groundhog tried to escape. "They caught him right before he tried to run for the hills," Chapin said, adding, "If Groundhog Day comes around and the main man doesn't show up you have problems." And it seems Phil may have some kind of "longevity genes," as handlers claim the woodchuck is 124 years old. His relatives live up to six years in the wild and just 10 years in captivity. The Phil of today, you might have guessed, is not exactly the same as Phils of yesteryear. Phil's handlers also claim the animal's forecasts are spot-on every year.

"He sees his shadow about 80 percent of the time and the other 20 percent he doesn't," said Bill Deeley, who was one of Phil's handlers, taking care of the groundhog for about 16 years. "He's pretty darn accurate," said Deeley, who is now president of the Groundhog Club's Inner Circle. The president is responsible for translating Phil's proclamation of whether or not he saw his shadow. Here's the story behind the famous forecaster and why his wild relatives snooze over the winter months: The legend of the groundhog's forecasting powers arguably dates back to the early days of Christianity in Europe when clear skies on the holiday Candlemas Day, celebrated on Feb. 2, meant an extended winter. The tradition was then brought to Germany, with the German twist being that if the sun made an appearance on Candlemas, a hedgehog would cast its shadow, thus predicting six more weeks of bad weather. More specifically, the legend states: "For as the sun shines on Candlemas Day, so far will the snow swirl in May..." As some of Pennsylvania's earliest settlers were German, they continued the tradition upon noticing a large population of groundhogs, which resemble the European hedgehog.

Phil and his groundhog relatives are pretty chunky mammals. A typical groundhog, also called a woodchuck or by its scientific name Marmota monax, weighs some 9.5 pounds (4 kg) with a body length reaching about 20 inches (0.5 m), at least those groundhogs living in Pennsylvania. (Punxsutawney Phil, not exactly svelte, weighs about 12 pounds, or 5.4 kg.) "He's very well fed," Chapin said in a telephone interview. Like other groundhogs, Phil is susceptible to cholesterol problems and so it's best if he doesn't get too big, according to Deeley. When living in the wild, groundhogs use their relatively short, powerful legs, clawed digits and large teeth to dig underground living quarters. And those habitats can be quite extensive, with as many as five entrances and various tunnels extending some 45 feet (13.7 m), and as deep underground as 5 feet (1.5 m). During the summer, groundhog dens are usually constructed in open areas, while in the winter, the animals take up residence in dens under stumps and at the edges of rock ledges.

When it's time to snooze, groundhogs stay put in a side chamber along the burrow system. Hibernation generally begins in October and ends in March or April (not Feb. 2). During this deep sleep , groundhogs curl up into tight balls with their heads tucked between their hind legs. Their heartbeats slow from some 100 beats a minute to as few as 15; the body temperature drops from 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) to 46 degrees Fahrenheit (8 degrees C); and breathing slows. This depressed state allows animals to conserve energy and live off their fat stores during the harsh winter months when food is scarce. While Phil doesn't go into a deep sleep like his outdoor pals, the groundhog does begin to slow down on eating and activities as the days get shorter. "Our groundhog will eat 12 months out of the year," Deeley told LiveScience. "He's like an eating machine from April until September 15," before he starts to slow down.

Top 10 Animal Senses Humans Don't Have Punxsutawney Phil | Tiny Zoo Wiki | Fandom powered by Wikia -- The Punxsutawney Phil is a part of the Critter Week themed collection. Punxsutawney Phil is a groundhog resident of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. On February 2 (Groundhog Day) of each year, the town of Punxsutawney celebrates the beloved groundhog with a festive atmosphere of music and food. During the ceremony, which begins well before the winter sunrise, Phil emerges from his temporary home on Gobbler's Knob, located in a rural area about 2 miles (3.2 km) east of town. According to the tradition, if Phil sees his shadow and returns to his hole, he has predicted six more weeks of winter-like weather. If Phil does not see his shadow, he has predicted an "early spring." The date of Phil's prognostication is known as Groundhog Day in the United States and Canada. He is considered to be the world's most famous prognosticating rodent. During the rest of the year, Phil lives in the town library with his "wife" Phyllis.

Who Is Punxsutawney Phil? | Wonderopolis Wonder of the Day #122 Who Is Punxsutawney Phil? What type of weather does Phil predict if he sees his shadow on February 2? How did Groundhog Day get started? Tags: Listen Most of us know Lassie and Flipper and Babe and Mickey , but have you met Phil? Punxsutawney Phil is certainly one of the most famous residents of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Some might even say he is one of the most famous weather forecasters in the world. Amazingly, Phil does all his weather forecasting without ever saying a word. Unlike the scientists who predict the weather — called meteorologists — Phil didn't have to go to school and doesn't have to study radar maps. All he has to do is step outside! Phil is a groundhog that lives in Punxsutawney. Each year on February 2, the City of Punxsutawney holds a special festival in honor of its famous furry forecaster.

The early-morning ceremony begins before sunrise in a special location called “Gobbler's Knob." As Phil emerges from his home, onlookers and newscasters hold their breath waiting to see if Phil will see his shadow . According to folklore , if it is cloudy when the groundhog emerges from his hole on February 2, he will leave the burrow , and we can expect an early spring . If it is sunny and the groundhog sees his shadow , he will return to his burrow , and we can expect six more weeks of winter . Once Phil has made his decision, legend says he speaks to the president of the Groundhog Club in a secret language called “Groundhogese." The president then translates the prediction for news cameras, visitors and people all over the country. Is Phil's prediction scientific? Not at all! It's certainly not based upon the modern scientific field of meteorology. Instead, it's based upon traditions that are hundreds of years old. Groundhog Day began as a German custom during the 18th and 19th centuries. It is believed to have been influenced by European weather lore , in which a badger or bear was used to forecast the coming of spring instead of a groundhog .

Phil's big day is February 2. During the rest of the year, he lives in the Punxsutawney Library with his “wife" Phyllis. A special group known as the “Inner Circle" takes care of Phil year-round. The Inner Circle is also responsible for planning Groundhog Day festivities in Punxsutawney, the site of the largest Groundhog Day celebration in America. Phil has been sharing his predictions with the world for more than 120 years. Since groundhogs only have a life expectancy of 10 years in captivity , scientists note there have been many “Phils" over the years. Nonetheless, Phil-fans claim there has only been one Phil. According to legend, each summer the Inner Circle feeds Phil a sip of a special mystery Groundhog Punch that lengthens his life by 7 years. Wonder Words (18) Wonder What's Next? When it comes to interesting reading, you can really count on tomorrow’s Wonder of the Day! Try It Out What do you think of small, furry mammals predicting the weather?

Have fun exploring one or more of the following activities with a friend or family member: PHIL'S PREDICTION ON FEBRUARY 2: (Cloudy = Early Spring; Sunny = Six More Weeks of Winter) DATE: SKY CONDITIONS: sunny or cloudy WEATHER CONDITIONS: sun / rain / snow / wind TEMPERATURE: On the first day of spring, analyze your results. Over the past six weeks, were more days sunny or cloudy? Warm or cold? Did you have more days with dry weather or snow or rain? Based on your research, do you think a groundhog makes a good forecaster? Why or why not? Groundhog Day is the perfect day to talk about shadows. Do you have technology in your classroom that allows your teacher to project images on a screen at the front of the room? An overhead projector is a good example of such a tool. Draw a groundhog on a piece of paper and cut it out. Place it on the overhead projector, so that its shadow is cast onto a screen at the front of the room. Now measure your cutout and then measure the image on the screen. How much larger is the image on the screen compared to your cutout?

How many times does the overhead projector magnify your cutout's shadow? Is Phil an accurate forecaster? Keep track and figure out whether Punxsutawney Phil has a future in meteorology or whether he should stick to digging holes. Beginning on February 2, keep a family weather journal for six weeks to see if Phil's prediction is accurate. Here's a template to get you started: Groundhog Day 2016: Punxsutawney Phil sees early spring - CNN.com Groundhog Day 2016: Punxsutawney Phil sees early spring By Joseph Netto, CNN Updated 1:15 PM ET, Tue February 2, 2016 Chat with us in Facebook Messenger. Find out what's happening in the world as it unfolds. Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends This is the famous Punxsutawney Phil in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a tradition in the United States and Canada that celebrates a groundhog's emergence from his winter den. Superstition holds that if a groundhog sees his shadow as he leaves the burrow, there will be six more weeks of winter weather.

If the groundhog does not see his shadow, you can expect an early spring. Native Americans also have traditions of animals predicting the weather, and groundhogs figure prominently in their religions and mythology . Hide Caption 1 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends The Easter Bunny has long been associated with Christianity's most important holiday. Rabbits are an ancient symbol of fertility, the moon and spring . In Germany, springtime celebrations including a magical egg-laying hare called Osterhase helped lay the foundations for Easter baskets full of eggs and other goodies. Hide Caption 2 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Chicks have long been part of Easter celebrations in many parts of the world. In Lebanon, where the chicks pictured here were found, people traditionally buy colored chicks, dyed with food coloring while they are still in their eggs . Many animal rights activists frown on the coloring, as well as buying chicks as pets for Easter. Chickens can make fantastic pets, but chicks are difficult to raise.

Hide Caption 3 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Lambs are associated with the resurrection of Jesus Christ and often the Christian faithful, but have old testament significance from the Exodus story. Jews and Christians often eat lamb while celebrating Passover and Easter , respectively. Polish Easter tradition includes sweets shaped like lambs, including sugar lambs and cake that's decorated to look like a lamb. Hide Caption 4 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Easter ducklings, like their feathery friends the chicks, also have a history as Easter gifts. It's hard to resist the fluffy down of a 2-week-old duckling. Ducks make excellent and loyal pets, according to animal expert Marc Morrone , but they are difficult to care for as babies, and are often abandoned at local ponds after Easter. Hide Caption 5 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Magical beasts have been part of Halloween since pre-Christian times. Hysterical fear of witches (said to turn into cats ) in the middle ages linked felines to the holiday.

Hide Caption 6 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Spiders are also associated with Halloween imagery, thanks in part to their historic association with ancient religions . The myths surrounding gods and supernatural beings who can predict the future or plot fate are often associated with spinning, thread, weaving and spider webs. But after all, spiders can be scary -- some bite! -- and spooky imagery is part of the Halloween tradition. Hide Caption 7 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Bats are an unmistakable hallmark of Halloween. An ancient tradition associated with the holiday is the nighttime bonfire , which lit up the night sky. Bats don't have ancient associations with Halloween, but the night sky does -- and that's often where bats can be seen. Hide Caption 8 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Cobbler, seen here, is one lucky Thanksgiving turkey. He was pardoned by President Barack Obama on November 21, 2012, at the White House, and avoided a roasty demise.

The holiday is a unique American tradition that the turkey has come to represent: For Thanksgiving, 2011, people in the United States ate an estimated 46 million turkeys . Benjamin Franklin was so enamored of turkeys that he suggested it represent the country as the national bird -- but the rest of the founding fathers preferred the bald eagle. Hide Caption 9 of 10 Photos: Punxsutawney Phil and his festive friends Christmas is a Christian holiday celebrating the birth of Jesus Christ, but it was the worship of St. Nicholas that made reindeer significant to the holiday. St. Nicholas was born in modern-day Turkey , far away from the nordic stomping grounds of reindeer. But Dutch and German traditions of "Sinterklaas" shaped the idea of Santa Claus, a jolly old man who lives at the North Pole -- with reindeer. Then, in 1939, the story of "Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer" was written by a Montgomery Ward department store copy editor. It hooked Americans on these adorable, wintery beasts.

Hide Caption Groundhog Day: Top five animal forecasters - CSMonitor.com Groundhog Day: Top five animal forecasters Punxsutawney Phil, right, is held by Ben Hughes after emerging from his burrow on Gobblers Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., to see his shadow and forecast six more weeks of winter weather Tuesday. Gene J. Puskar / AP Boston — Top Five Animal Weather Forecasters ... 5. Birds on a telephone wire signal a rainstorm. (Think Hitchcock’s “ The Birds .”) 4. When dogs eat grass, expect a severe storm. (Or, you forgot to feed your dog.) Photos of the Day Photos of the day 02/08 2. If rats in the hold climb out on deck, it will be a fair day. (Or maybe tanning machine below deck is broken.) 1. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow there’ll be six more weeks of winter. He’s right 39 percent of the time, claims StormFax Weather Almanac. Or, he’s right 61 percent of the time and StormFax is the mixed up one.

Before Punxsutawney Phil – Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary , according to his agent – started seeing his shadow in Pennsylvania , Celts looked to badgers and Europeans looked to bears to divine the weather. But the folklore of weather goes well beyond the winter forecast. What do the woodpeckers and woolly bears say? In England , it’s said that rain is on the way when the woodpecker laughs, and that frost is coming if a cat sits with its back to the fire. Plants and trees, too, evidently have the knack: frost is ended when mulberry tree put out shoots, but if the Ash buds before the Oak, then it’ll be “a regular soak.” And in lower Canada and America 's northeast, Woolly Bear Caterpillars are said to show a wider middle brown section if the coming winter will be mild. But the world's most famous prognosticator is that groundhog from Punxsutawney .

A holiday created by German settlers in Pennsylvania, Groundhog Day owes its roots to the Catholic holiday of Candlemas in Europe and the Celtic holiday of Imbolc before that, says Eileen Reilly , a professor at New York University ’s Irish Studies Program. “In Ireland and on the British isles, there are many stories of waiting to see an animal like the badger emerge from hibernation,” she says. “Any animal that would tend to bury itself underground and sleep off the winter.” First came Candlemas Groundhog Day is likely on Feb. 2 to keep in line with the Christian holiday of Candlemas, which celebrates Jesus being taken to the temple in Jerusalem soon after his birth. Out of the holiday came this English rhyme: “If Candlemas Day is clear and bright, winter will have another bite. If Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain, winter is gone and will not come again.” But before Candlemas and even before the birth of Jesus, says Reilly, the Celts celebrated Imbolc, or the season when sheep began to give birth to lambs, with a lights festival and even a weather forecast. This celebration was likely passed to the rest of Europe and became the basis for Candlemas and later Groundhog Day.

“If animals start to emerge, on or around Imbolc, then winter’s duration will be short,” she says. “Variations on that theme dates back to pagan times. As with so many other pagan feast days, there’s a Christian veneer put on it.” And even when it's not Groundhog Day, Reilly says, it’d be prudent to keep an eye out for stray groundhogs, badgers, and especially bears. “That’s a good policy.” Next up Punxsutawney Phil off the hook after indictment is dropped - NY Daily News Punxsutawney Phil off the hook after tongue-in-cheek criminal indictment against groundhog over his 'prediction' is dropped by Ohio prosecutor Punxsutawney Phil off the hook after indictment is dropped THE ASSOCIATED PRESS Punxsutawney Phil rightly predicted six more weeks of winter, but Bill Deeley mistakenly announced an early spring because he failed to correctly interpret Phil's 'groundhog-ese.' (Keith Srakocic/AP) Tuesday, March 26, 2013, 3:14 PM CINCINNATI - Phil is off the hook.

A winter-weary Ohio prosecutor who filed a tongue-in-cheek criminal indictment against the famous Pennsylvania groundhog over his "prediction" of an early spring dropped the charge Tuesday. Butler County Prosecutor Mike Gmoser said Punxsutawney Phil has a "defense with teeth in it" since the animal's handler is taking the blame. The Groundhog Day celebration in Punxsutawney, about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, attracts worldwide attention each year. But when Gmoser filed his indictment last week after snow was forecast to fall after the official start of spring, renewed attention made it feel like Feb. 2 all over again. Bill Deeley, president of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle, said Monday the furry prognosticator had actually predicted six more weeks of winter, but he mistakenly announced an early spring because he failed to correctly interpret Phil's "groundhog-ese." "Now it turns out, Punxsutawney Phil is little more than a scapegoat," Gmoser wrote in the dismissal.

That's a sharp contrast to last week, when Gmoser had written: "Punxsutawney Phil did purposely, and with prior calculation and design, cause the people to believe that spring would come early." Deeley said Tuesday that going after the groundhog probably gave prosecutors some relief from the challenges they normally face bringing murderers, drug dealers and other criminals to justice. Meanwhile, Phil seemed unfazed by the charge. "No, he's not worried," Deeley said. "He's getting three square meals a day, and a lot of rest." He also said the community appreciated all the extra publicity, which he said "you couldn't put a dollar figure on." Gmoser's office said he had also received hundreds of calls. Deeley wanted to be sure Tuesday he wouldn't be the prosecutor's next target, but Gmoser said it was time to move on. "Truly, I have really serious work to do in Butler County," he said from his office in Hamilton, some 25 miles north of Cincinnati, even as snowflakes dropped from the skies.

"Let's end it on a high note." He assured Ohio's lesser-known fuzzy forecaster, Buckeye Chuck, he won't face prosecution for his own erroneous prediction. Chuck, it turned out, was granted immunity after agreeing to cooperate with the state. "I'm kind of done with animal cases," Gmoser said. "Maybe another prosecutor can go after the Easter Bunny." Animal Predictors: Psychic, Sensitive, or Silly? Animal Predictors: Psychic, Sensitive, or Silly? In the wake of a popular 2014 hoax email going around claiming that animals were fleeing Yellowstone National Park in record numbers to escape an impending volcanic eruption, it probably makes sense to have a Skeptoid episode addressing animal predictions in general. Most are not hoaxes. That doesn't necessarily mean they're psychic, though. There are a range of possible explanations for the apparent ability. Perhaps the animals have some special sensitivity, perhaps it's an error made by the people who observe them. Today we're going to take a look at a few popular cases of famous, modern animals believed to have the power of prediction.

Oscar the Cat In 2007, the media went wild over an article published in the highly respected scientific journal The New England Journal of Medicine claiming that a cat named Oscar was able to predict which patients at the Steere House Nursing and Rehabilitation Center in Providence, Rhode Island were about to die, and would curl up with them until they did. The story proved so popular that its author, Dr. David Dosa, a geriatrician at the Center, was offered a book deal and expanded the story of Oscar's amazing predictive ability into a 240-page book, Making Rounds with Oscar: The Extraordinary Gift of an Ordinary Cat. Oscar's story has since been included in virtually every list of psychic animals in every kind of media, and is often cited as proof that the ability exists, particularly due to its publication in such an esteemed journal. But please, hold the horses a moment. The opening section of the Journal is called Perspectives, and includes essays, editorials, and opinion pieces. Dosa's article was in this section; it was most certainly not presented as research, but simply as a fun anecdote. Dosa made no representation that it was either scientific or based on serious study of the cat's behavior.

By the time of the book, Dosa said some 50 deaths at the Center had been preceded by visits from Oscar. But as many science journalists have noted, no data was ever collected or analyzed. No mention was made of how often Oscar visited other patients. Since it's a nursing home, most patients are terminally ill and remain there until they die, so it's hardly even possible for Oscar to ever be wrong. No criteria were ever observed for the length of time between Oscar's last visit and the patient's death, the duration of Oscar's visit, or how those numbers compared to his visits to other patients. Moreover, Dosa even states in the book that "for narrative purposes" he "made some changes that depart from actual events". From what we know of Oscar, there is no need to suggest that he has the power of prediction, either psychic or based on some smelling ability or behavioral sensing. Oscar's story can almost certainly be explained by confirmation bias: the tendency of workers at the center to more strongly notice Oscar's actions when they confirm the belief, in exactly the same way that many hospital workers notice busier nights during a full moon, a notion that's been conclusively disproven.

But we can't know for sure since nobody has ever studied the way Oscar divides his time between the living and the dying. Until they do, we have a cute story, but certainly not a psychic cat. Punxsutawney Phil One of the oldest and best known animals that made predictions is Punxsutawney Phil, centerpiece of the American tradition of Groundhog Day. Each year on February 2 at sunrise, a groundhog named Phil is brought out in Punxsutawney, PA to see whether he casts a shadow. If he does, the winter will last six more weeks; if he does not, then an early spring is expected. Punxsy Phil is, of course, just for fun; nobody really takes his predictions seriously. And that's good, because he's wrong about 2/3 of the time, according to the records kept by the Punxsutawney Area Chamber of Commerce. At 50% accuracy, a coin toss would be better than Phil. But Phil is a great example of how statistics could be used to support whatever conclusion you want; something of which we must be vigilant for any of these stories of animal predictions.

Take the date six weeks after February 2, and list the historical temperatures for each. Or the cloud cover, or the rainfall, or whatever indicator you want; but let's use temperature for this example. Find the mean temperature, go as far above or below that as it takes to give Phil the desired right/wrong record. Presto; just by choosing the criteria that support our preferred conclusion, it would be easy to prove that Punxsutawney Phil has a statistically significant ability to predict either a long winter or an early spring. Using similar after-the-fact analysis, we might also come up with a claim such as: Rupert Sheldrake's Psychic Dogs In 1994, English biochemist and paranormal researcher Rupert Sheldrake surprised the worldwide press with his announcement that dogs used psychic powers to determine when their owners were about to return home. He did extensive observation on one dog named Jaytee, and determined that Jaytee would walk to the porch shortly before his owner would return home. Sheldrake's work was criticized by Professor Richard Wiseman at the University of Hertfordshire, in large part due to this same kind of after-the-fact analysis.

Sheldrake had, according to Wiseman, collected data first, and then afterward looked for patterns. Just as it would be to establish winter/spring criteria after comparing Punxsutawney Phil's predictions to actual temperature records, it would be similarly easy to establish criteria for how long before the owner's return home Jaytee would have to go to the patio to constitute a successful prediction. Wiseman carried out four sets of his own experiments with Jaytee at the owner's house, having first established parameters for what kind of behavior would count as a successful prediction, using Sheldrake's conclusions: Jaytee had to go to the porch and remain there for at least two minutes. There proved to be no significant correlation between Jaytee's behavior and the owner's arrival home. The dog would come and go all day long. Sheldrake's methodology was akin to what we term the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy: shoot at the side of a barn, and then draw a target around your bullet hole. Wiseman drew his target first, and Jaytee's behavior missed the marked completely. Paul the Octopus Paul the octopus lived in a tank at Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany.

In 2008, during the European Football Championship, they put two boxes of food in his tank, one labeled with Germany's flag, and the other with that of Poland, whom Germany was about to play. Paul went to the Germany box first, and sure enough, Germany won that game. Throughout the tournament, Paul correctly predicted 2/3 of the matches he was given. But during the 2010 World Cup, Paul was correct 100% of the time, a feat that seems impossible unless he was truly inspired. Many news outlets consulted mathematicians, who generally used the coin toss analogy. Paul's chances of correctly picking the 2010 World Cup were 1/64, and with hundreds of animals being used as oracles around the world, it was a virtual certainty that at least one of them would guess all eight matches correctly. And that one is the one we all remember. But the coin toss analogy is not correct. Paul was given only matches in which Germany played, and since Germany was a top team (eventually winning second place), it was more likely they'd win any given match. Octopus are extremely intelligent, and though they're colorblind, they do recognize shapes.

In his six 2008 trials, Paul simply swam to the Germany box every single time, and was wrong two out of the six. Once Paul had learned that the Germany box contained food, it only makes sense that he'd go straight to the one marked with the bold stripes of the German flag each time. In the 2010 World Cup, Paul continued to choose Germany five out of seven times. In the eighth and final match, Germany did not participate, so Paul had a 50/50 chance on that one, and he guessed it correctly. Paul was correct all eight times. Most of these may be attributable to his trust of the German flag and Germany's winning tendencies, but that doesn't explain his misses. Octopus are imperfect, apparently. However it is noteworthy that in all three instances of Paul's career that he did not pick a box marked with a German flag, the box that he picked also had a national flag with three bold horizontal stripes. Three of the five times he picked Germany in his perfect 2010 season, it was against a country whose flag was very different. Was Paul truly psychic, or was it all random chance? Probably neither.

He simply had an octopus' excellent eyesight and intelligence, and knew that he'd find food wherever he saw three bold horizontal stripes. Are other animals similarly able to sense their surroundings? How about: Snakes and Earthquakes We've all heard stories that dogs bark, herds stampede, lowland animals rush to higher ground, and all sorts of other animals exhibit some behavior preceding an earthquake. Do they have a psychic ability, or is it perhaps something to do with heightened senses detecting real physical phenomena? Of all these cases, snakes and their ability to predict earthquakes is probably the most common human belief. Most research on this subject comes from China and Japan, two earthquake-prone countries with deeply rooted cultural beliefs of special spiritual powers in animals. Correspondingly, whenever you find a news report of such research, it generally comes from one of those two countries. There are potential physical explanations for snakes to sense earthquakes. Snakes are often mentioned because their entire body is in contact with the ground all the time, and they're known for their sensitivity to nearby footsteps or other disturbances. The heavy earthquake waves that we all feel are called S waves, but they're preceded by faster waves called P waves.

P waves and S waves are triggered at the same time when the quake happens, but the P waves travel faster; so if you're some distance from the epicenter, the P waves will reach you earlier. Humans can't generally detect these, but it's possible more sensitive animals could. In any event, the delay is a matter of seconds; not hours, days, or weeks. But large earthquakes are sometimes preceded by smaller foreshocks, which again humans may not feel, but more sensitive animals might. There are two problems with this idea though. First, the animal behavior we attribute to earthquake foreknowledge is rarely reported when the big earthquake hits that we can feel. If the animals are reacting to small foreshocks, shouldn't they also react to a larger shock? Second, virtually all of the evidence for this is anecdotal. It's based on reports from people and comes after the big earthquake. Such anecdotal evidence is untestable, unverifiable, and subject to all manner of perceptual errors like confirmation bias and post-hoc rationalization.

"I saw my dog run into the barn the other day, therefore he must have known about today's earthquake." To summarize, we don't have any good evidence yet that any animals consistently show any kind of predictive ability. We have good explanations for why they do what we think they do, with no need for the introduction of a special power of intuition or sensitivity. Of course there absolutely might be effects out there we don't know about yet, but until we have a reliable observation in search of an explanation, you should always regard these stories of psychic animals with a touch of skepticism. Cite this article: Dunning, B. "Animal Predictors: Psychic, Sensitive, or Silly?" Skeptoid Podcast. Skeptoid Media, 29 Apr 2014. Web. 19 Dec 2016. < References & Further Reading Dosa, D. "A Day in the Life of Oscar the Cat." The New England Journal of Medicine. 26 Jul. 2007, Number 357: 328-329. Editors. "Snakes in China Predict Quakes." Asia-Pacific. BBC News, 29 Dec. 2006. Web. 17 Apr.

2014. < Melina, R. "How Accurate Are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day Forecasts?" Live Science. Tech Media Network, 1 Feb. 2011. Web. 16 Apr. 2014. < Nickell, J. "Oscar, the Death-Predicting Cat." Skeptical Inquirer. 1 Jul. 2010, Volume 34, Number 4. USGS. "Animals and Earthquake Prediction." United States Geological Survey. US Department of the Interior, 9 Aug. 2012. Web. 16 Apr. 2014. < Wiseman, R., Smith, M., Milton, J. The Psychic Pet Phenomenon: A reply to Rupert Sheldrake. Hertfordshire: Richard Wiseman, 1999. Copyright ©2016 Skeptoid Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Rights and reuse information Groundhog Day inquiry digs up dirt on Punxsutawney Phil - CNN.com Story highlights Punxsutawney Phil has "predicted" an early spring in 2016 Legend has it that groundhogs come out of hibernation on February 2 to test the weather Their foray into the cold is less about forecasting and more about mating, say experts Groundhogs are a pest to some gardeners and farmers, who take extreme measures to be rid of them (CNN) For more than a century, groundhogs have been midwinter luminaries, scampering into the spotlight on February 2 to divine whether the second half of the season will be cold or mild. The stocky mammals are celebrated as soothsayers that peer into the future when they emerge from their burrows, surveying the landscape for telltale shadows that signal Jack Frost's plans for the next six weeks. Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, is the birthplace of Groundhog Day and the home of Punxsutawney Phil, the Peyton Manning of prescient rodents.

During a ceremony at sunrise, the waddling prophet is retrieved from his heated home inside a mock tree stump and hoisted heavenward by top-hatted helpers who interpret his gestures to make a prediction while thousands watch. Phil's stardom is coupled with infamy and not just due to the fact that his forecasts have been off 55% of the time over the past three decades, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Read More Farmers, gardeners and ranchers fear groundhogs, also known as woodchucks and whistle pigs, because the animals chomp on crops and dig holes in fields that may damage plows or trip up livestock. Groundhog Day was actually established by a hunting club. The members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club used to hunt their namesake creature during the late summer and host banquets where woodchuck was occasionally on the menu, according to Jeff Lundy, vice president of the club. In 1909, local newspapers reported that the governor of Pennsylvania attended the group's annual feast and 400 groundhogs were served to 400 guests.

Lundy said the stories may have been exaggerated but acknowledged in the past, woodchuck was eaten as a delicacy in Punxsutawney. Is the groundhog friend or foe? And what's the truth behind the legend of Punxsutawney Phil's February walkabouts? We asked biologists, wildlife control specialists, hunters and animal advocates to weigh in on groundhog myths, misconceptions and controversies. As you shiver in anticipation of Phil's forecast on Tuesday, read on to learn about the secret lives of groundhogs. Myth: Groundhogs are nature's weathermen It's a fallacy that Punxsutawney Phil awakens from hibernation on February 2 to assess the weather and determine whether to continue his winter nap. The real groundhogs of Pennsylvania do indeed venture out of their dens in early February, but prognosticating the weather is the last thing on their marmot minds, according to a Penn State study. They're not looking for shadows. The animals are looking for love (and maybe some food).

Moon-eyed males leave their bachelor pad burrows in pursuit of woodchuck Juliets, seeking out sweethearts in drainage ditches, roadside brambles and other hog hot spots. Before mating season begins in March, toothy lotharios embark on amorous quests to get acquainted with the females in their territory, said Penn State biology professor Stam Zervanos. "The first thing they need to do is find mates," said Zervanos, who co-wrote two journal articles about groundhog behavior. Using cameras and radio telemetry gear, he studied a group of 80 free-range groundhogs on the campus farm at Penn State Berks. "The timing is very important because they only have a short time to mate so the young can be successful. In order not to waste time, the males go out exploring while the females generally stay close to their burrows waiting for males to stop and say hello." Groundhog suitors linger around a female's den for hours but there's no hanky panky. It's too early for them to mate in February, with a scarcity of food and an abundance of predators.

Once they locate a receptive female, or two, they go back to their burrows and resume hibernating, planning to return in March for mating season. "This is a very dangerous time for groundhogs because there's a bunch of hungry foxes and coyotes around," said Zervanos. "They can't spend a lot of time out in the open. The sooner they find a female and duck for cover, the better." Climate impacts the date of first emergence; groundhogs in Maine court females later in the season than their counterparts in South Carolina. Once it's time to mate, however, weather is a nonfactor. "They'll come out and mate no matter what," said Zervanos. "We've seen them out with snow cover. If they don't mate by early March, the young aren't going to survive. The young have a limited time window to gain enough weight for the next winter hibernation." Controversy: When the groundhogs have got to go Groundhogs may have been rare to find when settlers arrived in America but as people cleared out forests to plant crops, they created an ideal habitat for the voracious herbivores, according to Zervanos.

In order to cope with the population boom, farmers began hunting woodchucks, and an American tradition was born. Back in the day, people supped on groundhog stew and stretched the hides to make banjos. An old time Appalachian folk song gleefully describes the chase and the many uses of dead groundhogs: "Shoulder up your gun and whistle up your dog/Off to the woods to catch a groundhog ... Here comes Sal with a snigger and a grin/The groundhog gravy all over her chin ... Eat up the meat and ya save the hide/The best durn shoestring that ever was tied." Groundhogs flourish in the suburbs, where manicured lawns and gardens are like an all-you-can-eat buffet. Many states allow hunters to pursue woodchucks year-round with few restrictions. In Pennsylvania, an average of 800,000 groundhogs are harvested annually, according to Travis Lau, spokesman for the state's game commission. There is one state where groundhog hunting is illegal. In Wisconsin, the critters are a protected species and the fine for killing a groundhog is $303.30, according to Tom Hauge, spokesman for the state's Department of Natural Resources.

Landowners are allowed to trap or shoot nuisance woodchucks in their yards but there's a ban on hunting the animals for sport. "Woodchucks have been a protected species in Wisconsin since the mid-1950s," said Hauge, via email. "We do not know why they were provided protected status. They were and remain a common species in this state." Three years ago, Rep. Andre Jacque of the Wisconsin legislature introduced a measure to establish a woodchuck shooting season, presenting complaints from farmers and testimonials from hunters touting how tasty the animals can be fried, grilled or prepared in a pressure cooker. The measure failed, however, with pushback from citizens and legislators who characterized hunting groundhogs as a thrill kill. People think we're out shooting and having a good time and just killing them to be killing them but it does a lot of good for farmers, gardeners.

Mike Faw, groundhog hunter Mike Faw, a groundhog hunter from North Carolina, said his attempts to cook delicious woodchuck dinners have been unsuccessful but that doesn't mean it's a "blood sport." "People think we're out shooting and having a good time and just killing them to be killing them, but it does a lot of good for farmers, gardeners," said Faw, a media relations manager for a firearms accessories company and a former North Carolina game warden. Faw typically knocks on farmers' doors in February and March, asking for permission to scout for burrows in their fields. "At first, they look at you funny," said Faw, 55, who has hunted groundhogs with varmint rifles, bows and handguns. "Once you convince them you're not crazy, they invite you in for supper and draw you a map, 'Let me tell you where all of them live because we want you to shoot as many as possible.'" James Ramsey graduated from squirrel hunting to groundhog hunting when he got his first long range varmint rifle as a kid.

The Indiana self-defense trainer and reserve police officer went on groundhog hiatus after he got married and started a career but a few years ago, he re-embraced his childhood hobby. James Ramsey has taken up his childhood hobby of hunting groundhogs again "I am a little long in the tooth to be dressed up like some forest elf crawling around stalking 'hogs but it is just as fun as I remembered it,'" said Ramsey, 61, of Fort Wayne. "I have a good time and the farmers get rid of a pest. As you look at the soybean fields, you'll see what we call 'ice cream cones.' The point of the ice cream cone is where the groundhog's burrow is. He'll eat in a semicircle out from his burrow. Groundhogs love eating fresh soybeans coming out of the ground." Shawn Weeks, a Connecticut-based nuisance wildlife control operator and columnist for the Farmers' Almanac, said groundhogs can be troublemakers but he wonders whether it's ethical to hunt them as a leisure activity. "I'm a hunter but if I don't eat it, I don't shoot it and I don't eat woodchuck," said Weeks, 50.

"People might say it's more humane to put a .22 cartridge in the head of a woodchuck than to have two coyotes killing it, tearing it apart alive and fighting over it, but that is a more natural way for a groundhog to go. Predators keep things in check." Weeks said there's a simple, proactive step homeowners can take to make groundhogs feel unwelcome. "I tell everyone, 'Go outside,'" said Weeks, who is licensed to trap and euthanize groundhogs. "If there's more traffic around your property, groundhogs will be less likely to move in. People are paying landscapers big money to plant these beautiful plants and mow these succulent, perfectly green lawns and create this picture perfect environment but I never see anybody in their yards. Everyone's inside playing video games. If people are not going to use their yards, the animals will." Ramsey, 61, says farmers are happy to benefit from his hobby Acceptance: Stopping man's inhumanity to woodchuck The Humane Society of the United States promotes "evicting" groundhog inhabitants rather than shooting or trapping them. Placing stinky cat litter around their burrows can prompt them to skedaddle.

Sensory overload is another tactic. Playing music and lining a garden with pinwheels creates a scene so confounding, woodchucks may hit the road. Once the animals leave, seal up burrows and place fencing around the area to keep out new or returning occupants. John Griffin, director of the Humane Society's Humane Wildlife Services department, said people's anxieties about groundhogs overtaking their yards are often unfounded. "Someone sees one groundhog and they think that within two years, there will be a thousand," said Griffin. "Only half the groundhogs from any litter survive, and they disperse. They find other territories and they're on the move and they're a prey animal so it's rough out there for them. A lot of times, we get calls not because there's an actual conflict but because when someone sees a groundhog, they're like 'Oh, I've got a problem.'" Griffin said it's wrong to think of groundhogs as freeloaders that don't contribute to the ecosystem. Eagles, hawks, owls, bobcats, badgers and coyotes consider them scrumptious.

Their dens are useful to a variety of vagabond animals, including foxes, snakes and chipmunks. The burrows often have separate chambers for sleeping, storing food, caring for pups and going to the bathroom, according to Griffin. Lethal intervention should be a last resort, said Griffin, because there can be unintended consequences. "Horrible things are done to groundhogs in the name of nuisance control, like gassing them, exploding burrows, poisoning and some of them are pretty ill considered," said Griffin. "Other species get harmed in that process. If you're broadcasting poison, there's any number of animals that can be impacted, including the predators that prey on them." Come Groundhog Day, though, the rodent is back in favor. "People see the groundhog as this cute animal and celebrated personality on Groundhog Day, but if they see one in their yard, the framing changes. The groundhog didn't change. It's human psychology. It's the human condition.

To say that they don't belong is to deny the fact that we've modified the landscape and created a habitat that attracts them." PETA Opines That Punxsutawney Phil Has to ‘Perform’ on Groundhog Day PETA Opines That Punxsutawney Phil Has to ‘Perform’ on Groundhog Day By Penny Starr | February 2, 2016 | 3:20 PM EST Groundhog Club co-handler Ron Ploucha holds Punxsutawney Phil during the annual celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pa., Tuesday. (Keith Srakocic / Associated Press) People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals, or PETA, posted an article on its website on Jan. 26 opining how the annual tradition of pulling groundhogs from their winter slumber is “no fun” for the animal. “Groundhog Day is no holiday for the animals forced to ‘perform’ in front of large crowds, exposed to flash photography and loud noise,” the article stated.

“Groundhogs are naturally shy, sensitive prey animals who react poorly when handled in front of raucous crowds,” the article stated, noting that at a groundhog event in Wisconsin last year the critter bit the ear of Sun Prairie Mayor Jonathan Freund. “Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog used for a Groundhog Day celebration in Pennsylvania every year, is forced to be on display year round at the local library and is denied the opportunity to prepare for and enter yearly hibernation,” it stated. However, an NBC article posted online last year shows Phil living in a cozy burrow and being pampered by his handlers at the library where he lives. “Groundhog Club Inner Circle member, Ron Ploucha, pets Punxsutawney Phil while visiting him inside his burrow at the Punxsutawney Library on Sunday, Jan 27, a photo caption in the article stated. "Phil's diet consists of various types of lettuce, iron-rich kale, celery and rabbit feed," explained Ploucha. "A special treat for Phil is a honey & oat granola bar.

They are hard and crunchy which helps him keep his teeth healthy, sometimes we will even throw in a piece of wood for him to chew on." The Associated Press reported that the handlers of Pennsylvania's most famous groundhog said Phil failed to see his shadow at dawn Tuesday, meaning he "predicted" an early spring. "Is this current warm weather more than a trend? Perchance this winter has come to an end? There is no shadow to be cast, an early Spring is my forecast," Jeff Lundy, vice president of the Inner Circle of The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, read at Tuesday’s ceremony. Copyright 1998-2017 CNSNews.com. CNSNews.com is a division of the Media Research Center. The mission of the Media Research Center is to create a media culture in America where truth and liberty flourish. The MRC is a research and education organization operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, and contributions to the MRC are tax-deductible. Copyright © 2014, Media Research Center. All Rights Reserved. Federal employees and military personnel can donate to the Media Research Center through the Combined Federal Campaign or CFC.

To donate to the MRC, use CFC #12489. Visit the CFC website for more information about giving opportunities in your workplace.

Question: What type of animal is Punxsutawney Phil?
Answer: Groundhog