Russian tanks move toward South Ossetia's capital For the best possible illustration of why Islamic terrorism may one day be considered the least of our problems, look no further than the BBC's split-screen coverage of Friday's Olympics opening ceremony. On one side, fireworks sparkled, and thousands of exotically dressed Chinese dancers bent their bodies into the shape of doves, the cosmos, and so on. On the other side, gray Russian tanks were shown rolling into South Ossetia, a rebel province of Georgia. The effect was striking: Two of the world's rising powers were strutting their stuff. The difference, of course, is that one event has been in rehearsal for years while the other, if not a total surprise, was not actually scheduled to take place this week. And that, too, is significant. The Chinese challenge to Western power has been a long time coming, and it is, in a certain sense, predictable. As a rule, the Chinese do not make sudden moves, and they do not try to provoke crises. Advertisement Russia, by contrast, is an unpredictable power, which makes a response more difficult.

In fact, Russian politics have now become so utterly opaque that it is not easy to say why this particular "frozen" conflict has escalated right now. Russian sources said that Georgia had launched an invasion of South Ossetia, aiming to pacify the breakaway region. Georgia, meanwhile, said that its troops entered the South Ossetian "capital" in response to escalating South Ossetian attacks, which have been going on for a week—years, really—as well as the Russian aerial bombardment of Georgian territory. But there are other players involved—paramilitaries, provocateurs, even peacekeepers, some of whom (Russians) have apparently been killed—and a complicated chain of events with myriad possible interpretations. Previous tensions—both in South Ossetia and Abkhazia , the other piece of Georgia that has declared sovereignty—had somehow been resolved without an actual war. Someone, clearly, wanted this one to go further. Both sides have deeper motives for fighting. The Russians have an interest in preventing Georgia from joining NATO, as Georgia, a Western-oriented democracy—George Bush called the country a " beacon of liberty "—has long wanted to do. In this, the Russians will almost certainly succeed.

There is no Western power that has any interest in a military ally that is involved in a major military conflict with Russia. The Georgian leadership, by contrast, had come to believe that the constant pressure of Russian aggression, coupled with the West's failure to accept Georgia into NATO, compelled them to demonstrate "self-reliance." Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has been buying weapons in preparation for this moment. Those who know him say he believed a military conflict was inevitable but could be won if conducted cleverly. As of Friday night, with Russian soldiers fighting in South Ossetia—only a few dozen miles from Tblisi, the Georgian capital—it seems as if he might have miscalculated, badly. Russia has not sent 150 tanks across that border in order to lose. Advertisement Still, the bottom line is this: Georgia should have stepped back from the brink—and should still do so if it has a chance—but Russia's deployment of such a large and carefully prepared force, not only in South Ossetia but in the rest of Georgia, is totally unacceptable. And the other indisputable conclusion? Wherever the blame for this week's escalation is finally laid, the West has very little influence on the outcome.

Saakashvili's appeals for help and moral support—"This is not about Georgia," he told CNN , "it is about America, its values"—aren't going to come to much unless Russia wants them to. Everyone is trying very hard, it is true: Even as I am writing this, a dozen or more diplomats and heads of state are crowding the telephone lines between Beijing and the Caucasus, * trying to get both sides to stop fighting, right now, and to worry later about who started it. Perhaps they'll succeed—or perhaps those who wanted this battle to start also want it to continue. In any case, the time to deal with this conflict was two years ago or four years ago. That there was a security vacuum in the Caucasus; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not come out of it well; that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West—all of that has been obvious for a long time. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas, and above all the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement. And now it may be too late. Correction , Aug.

13, 2008: The article originally misspelled Caucasus. ( Return to the corrected sentence.) Will Russia invade Ukraine? - BBC News BBC News By Jonathan Marcus BBC diplomatic correspondent 28 February 2014 Close share panel Image copyright AP Image caption Recent developments look much like the preliminary to the Russian assault on Georgia in 2008 Could Russia intervene militarily in Crimea to safeguard its strategic interests? Or, to put the question a different way, has Russia already intervened? Nobody yet knows the identities of the armed men who seized control of Simferopol airport. But their equipment, their vehicles and their behaviour all signal that this is a trained military unit, not a rag-tag group of pro-Russian loyalists. "These men look like a formed and organised body of troops. They appear to be disciplined, confident and uniformly dressed and equipped," says Brigadier Ben Barry, a land warfare expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Crimea Transferred from Russia in 1954 Ethnic Russians - 58.5% Crimea profile "Irregular militia may obtain bits of official kit but they tend to look like a military jumble sale." All we know is that what looks to be a military unit has secured the airport in Simferopol, the Crimean regional capital. This comes against a background of deepening tensions, with the Russians working through a predictable play-book of threats and menaces aimed at the new interim authorities in Ukraine. Combat aircraft in areas bordering Ukraine are on alert. Snap military exercises have been held to demonstrate the readiness of Russian forces. Misleading comparisons There have been economic threats too, for example to increase customs duties at the two countries' border along with widespread rhetoric warning of the threats to Russian minorities, orthodox religious shrines and so on. Image copyright AP Image caption Nobody yet knows who the armed men at Simferopol airport are So far, it looks much like the preliminaries to the Russian assault on Georgia back in 2008. Then, of course, the Georgian military did the Russians the favour of moving first into the separatist enclave of South Ossetia sparking a furious Russian response. But comparisons can be misleading.

Georgia was a small country that had deeply irritated Moscow and one that could do little to respond against Russia's overwhelming military might. Many experts believe a similar full-scale Russian intervention in Ukraine is unlikely. Given the size of Ukraine and the divisions within its population, it would simply saddle Russia with involvement in what might rapidly become a bitter civil war. Russian pressure at the moment serves a different goal. Ukraine is heading towards bankruptcy. It needs outside funding. Moscow knows that Western financial institutions must play some kind of role. Its concern is to underline in as clear terms as possible that any future Ukrainian government should tilt as much towards Moscow as it does to the EU. Russia's bottom line is that Kiev should resist any temptation to draw towards Nato. Crimea though is another matter. For a start the Russian military does not need to invade - it is already there, leasing facilities from the Ukrainian authorities. The bulk of Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based in Crimea with its headquarters in Sevastopol. Russian naval personnel come and go in Sevastopol as if it were a Russian city. The navy dominates the town.

While largely made up of naval personnel, the Black Sea Fleet also has a contingent of marines and there have been a series of reports suggesting that Russian forces in and around Sevastopol have been bolstered in recent days. Crimea has a very large pro-Russian population, who are probably in the majority. Many Russian naval personnel have retired there - and it is distanced physically and politically from Kiev. Russian pressure in Crimea again serves Moscow's wider purpose of reminding Ukraine's new rulers that Moscow's concerns must be considered in any future economic and diplomatic arrangements. The Georgia-Russia War (2008) The Georgia-Russia War Georgia-Russia War map courtesy of The Economist The Georgia-Russia War of 2008 See also Wars and Conflicts of Georgia The Georgia-Russia War (2008)--After nearly two months of border clashes between Georgia and its breakaway region of South Ossetia, Georgia launched a major military offensive against South Ossetia which prompted Russia to intervene against Georgia. On the morning of August 7, the Georgian army invaded South Ossetian territory and moved on the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali.

By the end of August 8, the Georgians controlled most of the city. When the war began, South Ossetia was defended by only 2,500 Ossetian militia and fewer than 600 Russian "peacekeeper" troops. Georgia's invasion force numbered nearly 7,500 American and Israeli-trained troops, with scores of tanks and armored personnel carriers. The well-trained Georgians also enjoyed a technological advantage over their foes; night-vision equipment and aerial drones. Georgian artillery and air strikes landed with effective precision due to their drone eyes-in-the-sky. Russian forces facing the Georgians do not have these technologies. Russian forces in South Ossetia, though aware that a conflict was coming, were caught by surprise by the timing of the Georgian assault. Events turned against the Georgians immediately as the numerically greater Russian Army crossed the border later on August 8, and battled Georgian forces outside Tskhinvali. Russia already had several hundred peacekeeping troops inside the city, who had suffered casualties in Georgian air attacks.

Russian aircraft bombed the Georgian cities of Kareli, Gori, Vaziani, near Tbilisi and the military airfield in Marneuli, also near Tbilisi on August 8. This bombing campaign was critical to Russia's rout of the Georgian military. Russia has obviously learned from other recent conflicts, including the Kosovo War , their own Chechen Wars , and the American Wars against Iraq in the 1990s as well as the current Iraq War . In those conflicts, swift and overpowering use of air power against enemy military facilities, air bases, and transportation and logistical targets disrupted the defender's plans and enabled the invading forces a powerful advantage. Marat Kulakhmetov, commander of the Russian forces in the region, claimed that Georgian shelling had destroyed most of Tskhinvali. Russian media reported heavy fighting between Russian and Georgian troops the night of Aug. 8/9, and Georgia reported Russian planes were bombing the Black Sea port of Poti. On August 9, Russian forces continued to enter South Ossetia, and continued to bomb targets in Georgia. Reports also indicated that the Russian navy was moving toward Georgia's Black Sea coast.

By August 10, Russian air power continued to dominate the skies above Georgia, with bombing of the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. Also, the war expanded to the naval front, with the Russian navy deploying warships off the Georgian coast. The Kremlin asserted that Russian forces sank a Georgian missile boat that attempted to attack Russian naval forces off the Black Sea coast. The Georgians said that Russian tanks had invaded Georgia proper, having moved south out of Ossetia into Georgian territory. The Ukraine, where the Russian ships are based, said that it had the right to deny re-docking privileges to the ships upon their return. Ukraine, like Georgia, has sought to move away from Russian influence and seek to join NATO. Also on the 10th, American military transport aircraft began ferrying Georgia's Iraq contingent back home to face the invading Russians. Russian and Abkhazian troops moved into the Georgian-controlled Kodori Gorge on on August 10, in a major expansion of the war. Russian ground forces also attacked the Georgian city of Gori, a major military and transportation hub.

The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly told American Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice in a phone call that the president of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, "must go." This comment prompted the American Ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, in a United Nations Security Council session, to charge that Russia's goal in the war was "regime change." The United States increased its public criticism of Russia on Sunday, August 10, as the Russians and their Abkhazian proxies opened a second front in their war against the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. As the U.S. Air Force ferried Georgia's Iraq contingent back home, American political and national security officials made some possibly disturbing public comments: "[Vice-President Dick] Cheney was even more pointed, telling [Georgian President] Saakashvili on Sunday afternoon that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered," according to his press secretary. Briefing reporters traveling with Bush on Sunday, Deputy National Security Adviser James F. Jeffrey would not rule out the use of American force to assist Georgia but said that was not the current focus of U.S. efforts.

"-- Washington Post, August 10, 2008 With ongoing American military commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States realistically has few options in a military intervention in the Georgia-Russia War, short of an all-out war with Russia. On August 11, Russian troops were in the Georgian town of Senaki, site of previous rebellions against the Tbilisi government. Senaki is south of Abkhazia, and the presence of Russians in Senaki's Samegrelo province is significant in that is indicates that Russia will not be satisfied with merely ousting Georgian forces from the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian air power continued to pound the city of Gori, which is the birthplace of Joseph Stalin, at once best known as a powerfully ruthless Soviet leader, and the best known Georgian in history. Some reports indicated the fall of Gori to the Russians, while other reports denied the city's takeover. Gori is only 45 minutes from the capital of Tbilisi and contains a major Georgian military base.

An Analysis of the Georgia-Russia War of 2008 While the war itself is not yet over, several points can be examined in how this conflict unfolded and the early course of the war, as well as some apparent consequences of this Russia-Georgia war: --It now appears clear that Georgia was duped into attacking South Ossetia and that the Russians had laid a trap to make the Georgians fire the first shots, thereby letting Russia claim to be pushing back an aggressor. According to Stratfor , a private American intelligence company, Russian forces were pre-positioned near the border, therefore more able to respond quickly to attack the Georgians when they moved into South Ossetia on August 8. While the timing of the Georgian attack took the Russians by surprise, their inability to seize the South Ossetian capital and thus their delay in pushing on to the strategically important Roki Tunnel, allowed Russia to pour troops into Ossetia and force back the Georgian military. --Georgia assumed that because of their cooperation with America in Iraq , and their application to join NATO, America would be more proactive in helping Georgia against Russia. This appears to have been foolish and naive wishful thinking.

With major American military assets tied down in Iraq and Afghanistan , and with a possible Iran War looming, the United States is in no position to risk war with Russia. --Poland, which suffered from Russian invasions, massacres, and depredations multiple times in the 20th century, came to a quick agreement with the United States that will place an American missile defense base in Poland. This long-delayed agreement was reached by the Americans and Poles in an obvious response to what the Poles see as Russian aggression in Georgia. From the Al Jazeera: Russian tanks roll towards Tbilisi - 14 August 2008 From the Associate Press: A Russian convoy of troops were engaged in an intense firefight, presumably with Georgian soldiers at a bridge in Achabet, South Ossetia Monday. (Aug. 11) Sources and Links on the Russia-Georgia War of 2008: What to Do When Russia Invades Your Country - The Daily Beast Game Plan What to Do When Russia Invades Your Country As Ukraine responds to a Russian stealth invasion, few countries can empathize. But the republic of Georgia has been there before, in 2008. And it’s got some advice for Kiev.

Eli Lake 05.07.14 9:45 AM ET Let’s say you are a former Soviet republic who has just seen some of its choicest territory annexed by Moscow. Few countries are in a better position to guide you through what happens next than Georgia. At least, that’s the view of Georgia’s defense minister, Iraki Alasania. In a wide-ranging interview with The Daily Beast, he said he had been in touch with his Ukrainian counterpart to offer the insights gleaned from his ministry’s study on the dos and don’ts of being invaded by Vladimir Putin’s military and stealth special operations units. Among Georgia’s tips for Ukraine: hunt moles early; watch for “non-governmental organizations” that are really Moscow’s fronts; seek out encrypted communications from the West; and if Russia does annex more territory, keep humanitarian, economic and cultural lines of communications open without formally recognizing the transfer of turf—it could be a useful way for the government in Kiev to address some of the needs of Ukraine’s Crimean citizens. “I am offering some lessons learned,” Alasania said.

Georgia’s defense ministry recently finished a 70-page report on how to prepare the military, select counter-intelligence targets and approach the diplomacy after Russia takes sovereign territory. The hope is that the advice can help the current government in Ukraine survive the current crisis engulfing their country since Russia’s annexation last month of Crimea. As a general rule, Alasania said it was important “to rely more on diplomatic resources” than the military. He noted that none of the militaries of the former Soviet republics could withstand a full-scale Russian invasion. But the Russian sabotage and provocation operations currently underway? Those have a chance of being countered. While there are important distinctions, the crisis in Ukraine has important similarities to Georgia’s brief war with Russia in 2008. In the years before the 2008 war, the U.S. ambassador in Tblisi, for example, documented examples of Russian intelligence provocations, particularly in the breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia . More recently, Western intelligence services have spotted Russian intelligence and special operations officers stoking the insurrection in eastern Ukraine .

Alasania said he already has had two lengthy conversations with Ukraine’s interim defense minister and is planning a face-to-face meeting to present his ministry’s report and offer his country’s assistance in planning for Ukraine without Crimea. “If they survive this crisis there will be a future for all the countries in the region that border Russia,” Alasania said. "If they lose, it means that NATO loses. And those of us who aspire to be in NATO will be deadlocked under Russian sabotage for years to come.” He said his report would offer Ukraine new insights on how to establish a counter-intelligence campaign against Russian saboteurs. “They don’t really have any kind of counter-intelligence service right now,” he said, noting that Ukraine’s security services were partners with Russia until February. While Alasania was vague, he said that there were “tell-tale signs” of Russian intelligence activity, such as the establishment of allegedly separatist non-government organizations that were most assuredly government-linked. Alasania also stressed the importance of targeting moles within the military and security services—and targeting them early.

If not, they can succeed in creating the kind of provocations that led Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to miscalculate in 2008 and launch a military confrontation that became the pretext for a full-scale Russian invasion. Arrests of alleged spies under the former Georgian government of Saakashvili drew criticism from the government that took power in 2012 after winning parliamentary elections (Saakashvili served out his term as president until last year.) But Alasania said many of these spies did pose a threat, despite claims during the 2011 election campaign from his party that they were held on trumped-up charges. Alasania said it was important to focus the mole hunt on the army. He said that only young, pro-Western officers should be promoted to key positions. Ukrainian officers who trained in Russia, Alasania said, should be sidelined or phased out. Ukraine’s military today appears to need all the help it can get. As The Daily Beast reported Tuesday, Ukraine’s current counter-insurgency campaign has largely failed and in some cases ended up targeting Ukrainian citizens and not armed separatists .

Ukraine also suffers from a lack of reliable communications for its troops in the field. The encrypted channels Ukraine would need for secure command and control for its military are penetrated by Russia , according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Alasania said Georgia also had to rely on unencrypted cellphone communications during its brief war with Russia in 2008. This at times led to local mayors exercising command over Georgian troops outside the chain of command in the military, he said. Alasania said that his government wanted to give Ukraine the benefit of its own diplomatic strategy for dealing with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two provinces that Russian troops continue to occupy to this day. Alasania said, for example, that Ukraine should be prepared for Russia to begin asking smaller countries to recognize Crimea as part of Russia, just as smaller countries like Nicaragua recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia rallied its allies in the West, to block a global tide of recognition from building. And it worked. Maybe it’s a tactic Ukraine may have to adopt one day, as well.

READ THIS LIST Russia-Georgia War in 2008 Told the West -- and Putin -- What Was Coming | The Huffington Post Russia-Georgia War in 2008 Told the West -- and Putin -- What Was Coming 03/03/2014 01:40 pm ET | Updated May 03, 2014 160 David Paul President, Fiscal Strategies Group Why, exactly, are we surprised? Up until Russian President Vladimir Putin seized the Crimean peninsula, a large swath of the commentariat seemed to think that such an action in this day and age was unthinkable. Then, when President Obama warned Putin against military intervention, it seemed all but inevitable. This was not cynicism or defeatism or a reflection on other red lines. Rather, it was the simple realization that there was little to be done to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine, should Putin choose to do so. Russia has air and ground forces arrayed along the 1,500-mile northern and eastern borders of Ukraine -- to say nothing of its Black Sea Fleet birthed at the Ukrainian port of Sebastopol. The question was only whether he would choose to do so.

As Americans, we tend to view world events through rose colored glasses, and so we did as the Ukraine crisis escalated. We cheer on the toppling of autocrats and the birth of nascent democracies, and we frame events through a Manichaean lens of good and evil, of 'good guys' and 'bad guys.' Our good guy/bad guy rubric is not consistent, however. We support young democracies, until election results don't fit our preferred narrative. We decry brutal, autocratic regimes, but make exceptions for countries with important economic or historical ties. And former enemies can become friends -- black hats exchanged for white -- when the confluence of democratic change, political alignment and economic interests align. But if there is has been one immutable adversary over the past century, it is Russia. The Berlin Wall may be no longer, the Soviet Union a relic of the past, but it has been a quarter century since the end of the Cold War and Russia has lost little of its 'Evil Empire' sheen. We still see ourselves as we did a half a century ago, Rocky and Bullwinkle, fighting for Truth, Justice and the American Way against Boris Badenov, Natasha and the one-eyed Fearless Leader.

We are the good guys. They are not. As the Soviet Union was collapsing, it seemed for a brief moment that a change in that paradigm might be possible. To assuage historical Russian fears of encirclement by the west, President George H. W. Bush promised Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that the United States would not take advantage of the dismemberment of the Soviet Union to draw former Warsaw Pact nations into the NATO alliance. Yet, within just a few short years every former Warsaw Pact nations joined NATO. And while that fact was not proof of American perfidy -- after all, those countries had ample reason to seek refuge in the west and in NATO -- the elder President Bush's assurances were never integrated into American policy. Before long, the policy of containment that George Kennan prescribed to control Soviet expansionism in the 1940s found new life. The encirclement of Russia -- in particular the expansion of NATO membership to Ukraine and Georgia -- became central tenets of post-Soviet American policy, and for the ascendent Neoconservatives the break-up of the Russian federation was the ultimate stated goal.

Even as American political groups backed reformist parties in Russian elections, Putin emerged as a powerful and popular President of Russia in large measure due to his steadfast opposition to the continuing humiliation of Russia at the hands of American and NATO policies. He worked steadfastly to solidify Russia's security perimeter and to return prestige to the Russian state. Putin's ambitions were not secret, and his hostility to U.S. and European designs on Ukraine was well established. Events in Georgia in 2008 presaged what was to come in Ukraine. After Georgia elected a pro-Western government, Russia intervened militarily -- ostensibly to protect the ethnic Russian populations within the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Vice President Dick Cheney decried Putin's action , declaring that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community." But Putin's actions in Georgia did go unanswered. Russian intervention in Georgia was quick, decisive and brief -- and he got away with it. For all the bellicose inclinations of the second Bush administration and the Neocon embrace of Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili, there was no U.S.

or European response of any substance. The international community quickly turned its attention to other matters, and Russia continues to occupy Georgian sovereign soil to this day. Writing in the Washington Post, Bush administration State Department official Elliot Cohen sums up the widespread critique -- from the Republican right to the Washington Post editorial page -- of President Obama's performance, "President Obama's history of issuing warnings and, when they are ignored, moving on smartly to the next topic gave a kind of permission ... Absent a severe penalty -- one that inflicts pain where Putin can feel it, to include Russia's economy and his personal wealth and control of that country -- the lesson learned will be, "You can get away with it." Cohen concludes by demanding tough American, "The world is a darkening place, and the precedents being set are ones that will haunt us for decades to come unless the U.S. administration can act decisively and persistently against Russia." Cohen dismisses the importance of Putin's invasion of Georgia that occurred on his watch, labeling Georgia a country of no consequence that provoked -- and therefore implicitly deserved -- Russia's ire. The truth is just the opposite, however. Ukraine is of far greater import to Russia strategically, historically and politically.

Georgia proved out for Putin the central premise that while U.S. and NATO policy has been and remains to tighten its strategic noose around the Russian heartland, limited actions to control its perimeter would not be met with a significant response. No one has any illusions that Putin's actions to date in the Crimea can be rolled back by force, or expects to hear a version of President George H. W. Bush's words of warning to Saddam Hussain -- "this will not stand, this aggression against Kuwait..." When Florida Senator and Presidential Aspirant Marco Rubio weighed in the " 8 Steps Obama Must Take to Punish Russia, " the gap between rhetoric and the facts on the ground only widened. "This is a critical moment in world history," Rubio declared, mirroring Dick Cheney's tone years before. "The credibility of the alliances and security assurances that have preserved the international order is at stake. If Putin's illegal actions are allowed to stand unpunished, it will usher in a dark and dangerous era in world affairs." Yet, when faced with an issue of historic consequence, Rubio's eight steps lacked the urgency of his rhetoric: Stronger denunciations. Barring Russia from international organizations. Limiting Russian visas to the U.S.

There is no call for the U.S. to match Russia's proposed $15 billion aid package to address Ukraine's massive economic problems -- the best we have seen is John McCain's proposal to provide $1 billion in loan guarantees. There is no call to arms, no commitment to building a Ukrainian resistance. No threat of retaliation against the Russian homeland. The closest Rubio comes to urging a show of force was his call to admit Georgia into NATO. But Rubio knows well that admitting Georgia into NATO is infeasible because Russian troops already occupy Georgian soil, a fact that could immediately compel NATO action against Russia in Georgia's defense. It is all just words. Only the inaction of the Bush administration in 2008 keeps one from wondering wistfully what would Dick Cheney do... To date, the presumption has been that Putin's objectives will be satisfied with the annexation of the Crimea, and the swiftness of the Russian-Georgia war supports this thesis. But this is a unique moment for Russia to -- in its mind -- restore the integrity of its borders. One can imagine that Putin must have considered at least four different intervention possibilities.

First, seizing Crimea and securing the Black Sea Fleet, as has been accomplished to date, followed by the restoration of the Crimea to Russian sovereignty. Second, moving beyond the Crimea to occupy a swath of eastern and southern Ukraine with majority ethnic Russian populations, under the pretext of providing a land corridor to the Crimean peninsula that the first scenario would lack. Third, seizing all of the majority Russian territory across eastern and southern Ukraine to the Moldovan boarder. And fourth, taking all of Ukraine, and thus fully securing the Russia-Ukraine border, as well as the Russian gas pipelines that traverse central Ukraine, passing through Kiev, to Europe. Each of these possibilities would entail increasing levels of difficulty, occupying lands with increasingly hostile local populations, and incurring increasing levels of opprobrium from the west. With the first two or three scenarios, Putin can move forward with his proposed referendum to establish de jure support for the de facto partition of the country. It may seem like we are embarking on a new dark and dangerous era, as Cohen and Rubio suggest. But apparently Dick Cheney saw the onset of that era years ago, under his watch. Perhaps George H. W. Bush had a more subtle grasp of the exigencies of dealing with Russia than Rubio or Dick Cheney.

The elder Bush recognized the importance of acknowledging that Russia has its own strategic interests within its region, and that even with the collapse of the Communist regime, it would have the power to assert itself. Unlike Rubio and Cheney, Bush eschewed a Manichean world view, and could accept that other nations have interests and perspectives that are different than ours. Russia, Bush and the Paleoconservatives around him understood, would be less dangerous if it were not backed into a corner. But that was not the path we chose. Instead, we chose to push Russia to the wall at every opportunity possible, and now we are surprised that it is pushing back. Putin is playing with a strong hand on his home turf. His ultimate intentions in the Ukraine in the current crisis are opaque. But his goals have been known for years. Follow David Paul on Twitter: More: Georgia 'overrun' by Russian troops as full-scale ground invasion begins | Daily Mail Online Georgia 'overrun' by Russian troops as full-scale ground invasion begins Gordon Brown urges Moscow to order a ceasefire Putin lashes out at the U.S.

for 'helping Georgia' Georgia 'restarts shelling' after ceasefire call ignore Refugee crisis as 40,000 flee Georgian officials tonight claimed the country had been 'overrun' by Russian troops after a full-scale ground invasion. Amid reports that Moscow forces had taken the town of Gori - and were marching on the capital Tsblisi - Georgian soldiers appeared to be in full retreat. Troops were apparently in complete chaos as a full-scale rout pushed them back through the countryside. Meanwhile, the civilian crisis intensified with thousands of refugees fleeing the seemingly unstoppable advance of the Russian army. An unidentified Georgian woman cries after finding out that her child was killed in a neighbouring village, in the town of Gori Around 9,000 soldiers and 350 tanks had been massing at a base in the border region of Abkhazia throughout the day. But the huge force has now moved into Georgia proper, demolishing hopes of a rapid solution to an increasingly bitter conflict. The invasion comes as Gordon Brown urges Russia to call a ceasefire. The Prime Minister warned Russia there was 'no justification' for its military action in Georgia.

Residents of Gori wait to receive humanitarian aid from local authorities as Russia called today for Georgian forces to surrender in the separatist enclave of Abkhazia Mr Brown issued a strongly-worded statement after Georgia backed an EU peace plan for the breakaway province of South Ossetia amid continued fighting. 'There is no justification for continued Russian military action in Georgia, which threatens the stability of the entire region and risks a humanitarian catastrophe,' he said. 'There is an immediate and pressing need to end the fighting and disengage all military forces in South Ossetia. 'The Georgian government has offered a ceasefire, which I urge the Russians to reciprocate without delay.' Meanwhile, intense shelling continued in the breakaway region of South Ossetia where hostilities broke out last Friday. There were also conflicting reports that Russian troops had overrun the city of Gori while Georgian forces were concentrating on holding Mtskheta, 15 miles from the capital.

On the move: Russian troops wind along a road near the border between North and South Ossetia amid fears of a ground invasion Retaliation: Russian forces secure the area in the Khurcha settlement in breakaway region of Abkhazia Earlier in the day, Russian premier Vladimir Putin raised the stakes over the conflict by lashing out at the U.S. as the fighting continued to escalate in the region. The Russian prime minister rejected calls from Georgia for a ceasefire and declared that his country would pursue its mission to its 'logical conclusion'. A day after a face-to-face meeting with President George W. Bush in Beijing who expressed 'grave concern', Mr Putin accused the U.S. of siding with Georgia by ferrying Georgian troops from Iraq to the battle zone. 'It is a shame that some of our partners are not helping us but, essentially, are hindering us,' said Mr Putin. 'The very scale of this cynicism is astonishing.' Russian Defence ministry spokeswoman Nana Intskerveli confirmed tanks had seized a Georgian military base in the western town of Senaki. The statement indicated Russian troops had entered the region from a second rebel province of Abkhazia, where troops have been massing since the weekend.

RELATED ARTICLES Share this article Share There are concerns a new front away from South Ossetia could open up around Abkhazi, which would represent a major escalation in the conflict. Thousands of troops, dozens of tanks and Hurricane multiple rocket launchers were seen pouring along roads to the south of Russia. Russian warplanes also launched new attacks inside Georgia today, one on the outskirts of the capital and another on the Black Sea port of Poti. Officials in the breakaway region today claimed Georgian troops had also resumed shelling there after its calls for a ceasefire were ignored by Russia. President Bush warned Mr Putin of his 'grave concern' about the 'disproportionate' military intervention at a face-to-face meeting in Beijing yesterday. His Vice-President Dick Cheney also personally called the Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili over the weekend to reassure him his country has U.S backing. Warning: U.S. President George W. Bush with Vladimir Putin in Beijing. Putin today lashed out in return, accusing the U.S. of helping Georgia Amid fears Moscow intends to seize the whole country to gain control of its crucial oil pipelines, Mr Cheney declared Russian military action 'must not go unanswered'.

In a statement, he added: 'Its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community.' Russia appeared to be totally defying the U.S. warning today, with Georgia claiming up to 50 Russian jets were roaming its skies ready to strike. Mr Putin and Russian President, Dimitry Medvedev, attended a summit with senior generals at the Kremlin today for a council of war. President Medvedev announced later that its military operations in South Ossetia were 'nearing conclusion'. 'A major part of operations to force the Georgian side, the Georgian authorities, into peace in South Ossetia has been completed.' Loss: Family and friends of an Ossetian killed in the fighting in Tskhinvali weep at his funeral today Safety: The first group of 95 Poles evacuated from Georgia arriving in Warsaw today Russia was also reported to have sent more paratroopers into Abkhazia where it now has more than 9,000 soldiers as well as tanks and armoured vehicles. Georgia claimed Gen.

Sergei Chaban, who is in charge of Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia, had warned their forces must disarm or face Russian troops there as well as in South Ossetia where the conflict began on Friday. A ground invasion launched from Abkhazia would be a drastic step, and almost impossible for Georgia to counter with most of its troops still near South Ossetia. It was also alleged dozens of Russian bombers were attacking targets inside Georgian territory, including around Tbilisi. Bloodied: A woman lies injured in the ruins of an apartment block in Gori Basic: The wounded stay in a hospital shelter in the South Ossetian capital Russian officials said the air raids were targeting supply lines and military facilities and were not directed at civilians but one in Gori on Saturday killed more than 20 and wounded scores of others. Meanwhile NATO also joined the condemnation today, accusing Russia of using excessive force and violating Georgia's territory by taking the military action beyond South Ossetia. Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer was 'seriously concerned about the disproportionate use of force by the Russians and the lack of respect for the territorial integrity of Georgia,' a spokesman said.

'The military operations that we saw on Saturday and since then, including air and missile attacks, have no relation to and go well beyond the CIS peacekeeping operation.' But diplomatic efforts to secure a ceasefire were continuing with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner leading a delegation from the European Union asking for a 'controlled withdrawal of troops'. In further developments, Russia accused Georgia of killing three of its troops in the shelling on the South Ossetian capatal Tskhinvali and claimed another two of its planes had been shot down. Support: U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney (left) phoned Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili in person to offer America's backing to the region A separate Council of Europe delegation lead by Sweden's foreign minister was also on its way to the Georgian capital for talks. Georgia claimed yesterday to have pulled out its troops from South Ossetia and was calling for a ceasefire. The demand was rejected by the Kremlin, which said it did not believe the Georgian forces had actually retreated. The region is an international flashpoint, given its vital position in terms of oil supplies which run from the Caspian Sea to Europe through the small country.

It is feared the Kremlin could be using the conflict to disrupt fuel supplies, which would make the West even more dependent on Russian oil. The U.S. has refused to indicate what it may do if the fighting continues and Russia refuses to back down. Anguish: A man cradles the body of a relative in the street after Russian planes bomb homes in Gori, killing five people Two women attempt to sleep after taking refuge in the hospital shelter State-controlled Russian television claim more than 2,000 people have been killed in South Ossetia and thousands made homeless. And a Georgian government source said yesterday that 130 civilians and military personnel had been killed and 1,165 wounded, many because of Russian bombing. The smaller country's withdrawal from South Ossetia left Russian troops in control. Many towns were deserted with reports of 40,000 fleeing across the war zone. Some 50 ambulances were ferrying wounded Georgian troops from South Ossetia to hospitals in neighbouring cities, all of which were already overcrowded.

Flashback, 2008: When A Russian Invasion Made Fox News Shrug Flashback, 2008: When A Russian Invasion Made Fox News Shrug ››› ERIC BOEHLERT ? Fox News commentators have been rushing in to blame President Obama for the Russian military's excursion into Ukraine. It's because of Obama's "weakness" that Vladamir Putin has seized the military initiative, announced Sarah Palin. The crisis proves Obama's guilty of misunderstanding the Russians and not being "interested in American national security affairs," according to John Bolton. Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told Fox viewers Obama "left a vacuum that Putin is filling," and Steve Doocy complained the president hasn't done "much" to solve the situation. Also, Obama needs to get a "backbone " and he's " lost moral authority ." All this while Fox has marveled over Putin's prowess as a true " leader ," and swooned his supposed physical superiority over Obama. Please note that in August 2008, during President Bush's final months in office, a strikingly similar scenario played out when Russian forces invaded the former Soviet state of Georgia.

At the time, the Bush White House sounded an awful lot like today's Obama White House. From Bush spokeswoman Dana Perino, now a Fox host: "The United States supports Georgia's territorial integrity. We call for an immediate ceasefire. We urge all parties Georgians, south Ossetians, Russians to deescalate the tensions and to avoid conflict. We are work on mediation efforts and to secure a ceasefire, and we are urging the parties to restart their dialogue." Yet unlike today, the Putin-led excursion in 2008 completely failed to spark the panicked rhetoric that's become Fox News' trademark since Russian troops crossed over into Ukraine last week. Notably absent from the 2008 Georgia coverage was relentless finger pointing and blaming the White House for the extreme actions of a foreign leader thousands of miles away. There was also none of the Putin cheerleading that we hear on Fox News today. In fact, some of the Fox commentators currently stoking the flames of "crisis" were rather non-judgmental when Russian tanks moved into Georgia.

"I don't think the Russians are reckless," Charles Krauthammer announced on August 8, 2008, as Russian fleets advanced into the Black Sea and Russian jets launched raids targeting government buildings in Georgia. "What they are doing here is reasserting control of this province. And when it's done, which will probably happen in a couple days, the firing will crease." Three days later, Krauthammer insisted there was nothing for the United States to do as the crisis escalated: "Well, obviously it's beyond our control. The Russians are advancing. There is nothing that will stop them. We are not going to go to war over Georgia." Krauthammer's Fox colleague Jeff Birnbaum, agreed: "Because Georgia is not part of NATO, there's really no danger the United States or Europe will get in involved in what is really a civil war almost between--within this small part of Georgia." Fox News' message to America then? Just relax. There's nothing the U.S. can do about Russia invading its sovereign neighbor and it will all be over soon. Bill O'Reilly agreed with the laissez-faire analysis.

"Even if President Bush wanted to help Georgia we simply don't have the ground forces to do it," said O'Reilly on August 11. "And confronting the Russians in the air would lead to major hostilities that the USA cannot afford right now." Even Fox's usually bellicose, right-wing think tank commentators demurred. "There's no easy answer; there's only tough choices," said the Heritage Foundation's Peter Brookes on August 12, 2008. "Russia is a tough nut to crack." Indeed. Recall that early in his presidency Bush famously announced he had peered into Putin's soul and spotted goodness in the Russian leader. The Georgia invasion belayed Bush's gut instincts, but few Fox commentators mocked the president's for his misreading of Putin. (Nor was there discussion that Bush's failed war with Iraq had created an opportunity for Russia's military expansion.) "I don't think that Putin spit in the eye of the president," insisted Karl Rove in 2008. And John Bolton, who this week accused Obama of not "paying attention" to Ukraine? Back in 2008, he gave Bush a pass when Russian troops poured into Georgia.

"I think a lot of people missed it, not just the administration." Bolton said on Fox. Whereas the current Ukraine conflict is all about Obama on Fox News (i.e. Putin: leader; Obama: weak), Bush was portrayed as a minor figure when Russia waged war in Georgia six years ago. Short Link Russia 'invades' Georgia as South Ossetia descends towards war - Telegraph Georgia Russia 'invades' Georgia as South Ossetia descends towards war Russian tanks have entered Georgia's breakaway province of South Ossetia, pushing the troubled region closer to all-out war. Link to this video 5:13PM BST 08 Aug 2008 World leaders have appealed for a ceasefire in the conflict, which erupted after Georgia launched a huge offensive aimed at imposing its control over the rebel province with its large Russian population. Separatist leaders in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali claim that more than a thousand people have been killed in Georgian shelling. "We won't allow the death of our compatriots to go unpunished," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said, adding that he would "protect the lives and dignity of Russian citizens wherever they are located".

Georgia claims that Russian aircraft have bombed two of its airbases, and that it has shot down five Russian jets. President Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia described the situation as "war". "Russia is fighting a war with us in our own territory," he said in an interview with CNN. Related Articles Katie Melua fears for family in Georgia amid 'war' 08 Aug 2008 Moscow has denied sending aircraft into Georgian territory, but indicated that its forces have engaged with Georgian troops. Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, accused the Georgians of carrying out "ethnic cleansing" on the people of South Ossetia, most of whom have Russian passports. The conflict threatens to draw in other world powers, with Mr Saakashvili considered a key ally of the West. The US has declared that it supports Georgia's "territorial integrity". As a column of Russian tanks advanced towards Tskhinvali, Mr Lavrov called on the West to reach "the right conclusions" over the conflict, saying the Georgian offensive had been made possible by Western military aid to Tbilisi.

"Now we see Georgia has found a use for these weapons and for the special forces that were trained with the help of international instructors," he said. "I think our European and American colleagues ... should understand what is happening. And I hope very much that they will reach the right conclusions." The military operation marks the first time Russian troops have taken action on foreign soil since the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. Georgia has warned that any involvement of Russian forces in the conflict would result in a state of war between the two countries. The Russian military reported that ten Russians were killed and 30 injured during Georgian shelling of their barracks, but Georgian officials denied firing on Russian peacekeepers in the area during their offensive in South Ossetia. Georgia v Russia: By numbers Georgia 2008 Georgia Russia Conflict Fast Facts - CNN.com 2008 Georgia Russia Conflict Fast Facts CNN Library Updated 11:07 AM ET, Thu March 31, 2016 Chat with us in Facebook Messenger. Find out what's happening in the world as it unfolds. (CNN) Here's some background information about the 2008 military conflict between Russia and Georgia.

Facts: The conflict centered on South Ossetia and Abkhazia , two "breakaway provinces" in Georgia. They are officially part of Georgia, but have separate, unrecognized governments. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are supported by Russia. Russia has peacekeeping operations in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. During the five-day conflict, 170 servicemen, 14 policemen, and 228 civilians from Georgia were killed and 1,747 wounded. Sixty-seven Russian servicemen were killed, and 283 were wounded, and 365 South Ossetian servicemen and civilians (combined) were killed, according to an official EU fact-finding report about the conflict. Read More 1918-1921- Georgia is briefly an independent state after separating from the Russian Empire. 1921 - After the Red Army invasion, Georgia is declared a Soviet Socialist republic. April 9, 1991 - Georgia declares independence. 1991 - South Ossetia declares its independence from Georgia. Heavy fighting breaks out, forcing thousands of people to flee their homes.

1991-1992 - Civil war breaks out in Georgia. Zviad Gamsakhurdia is deposed as president. 1992 - Abkhazia declares its independence from Georgia, leading to armed conflict. October 1992 - Eduard Shevardnadze is elected to lead Georgia. He is re-elected in 1995 and 2000. September 1993 - Abkhazian separatist forces defeat the Georgian military. October 1993 - Georgia joins the Commonwealth of Independent States. May 1994 - A ceasefire is agreed upon and signed between the Georgian government and Abkhaz separatists. Russian peacekeeping forces are deployed to the area. October 2001 - Fighting resumes between Abkhaz troops and Georgian paramilitaries. Russia states that it believes Georgia is harboring Chechen rebels , a claim denied by Georgia. September 2002 - Russian President Vladimir Putin sends a letter to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan , U.N.

Security Council members, and members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe stating that Georgia must respond to accusations they are harboring Chechen militants or face military action from Russia. October 2002 - Tensions with Russia are defused after Eduard Shevardnadze, Georgia's president, promises to work with Russia to fight Chechen rebels. November 2003 - Shevardnadze is forced to leave office in the "Rose Revolution." July 2005 - Under terms of a deal reached in May, Russia starts to withdraw its troops from two Soviet-era military bases. May-June 2006 - Tensions between Georgia and Russia rise again when Georgia demands that Russian peacekeepers in South Ossetia have visas. November 12, 2006 - A referendum is voted upon in which South Ossetians overwhelmingly demand independence. In a simultaneous referendum, South Ossetia's ethnic Georgians, a minority, vote to stay a part of Georgia. The referendum is not recognized by the Georgian government. November 2007 - Russia announces that it has withdrawn its troops that had been based in Georgia since 1991.

It retains a peacekeeping presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. April 3, 2008 - NATO members at a summit in Bucharest, Romania, defer the decision on Georgia and Ukraine's admittance until December 2008. April 21, 2008 - Georgia accuses Russia of shooting down an unmanned drone over Abkhazia on April 20. Russia denies the claim. April 29, 2008 - Russia sends more troops to Abkhazia to counter what it says are Georgia's plans for an attack. May 26, 2008 - A U.N. investigation concludes that the drone shot down on April 21 was struck by a missile from a Russian fighter jet. May 30-31, 2008 - Russia sends several hundred unarmed troops to Abkhazia, saying they are needed for railway repairs. Georgia accuses Russia of planning a military intervention. August 7-8, 2008 - South Ossetian separatists begin attacking Georgian peacekeepers, ending a ceasefire. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili sends troops into South Ossetia.

Russia responds by moving its troops to the border, flying aircraft over Georgia, and beginning air strikes in South Ossetia. August 8, 2008 - The United States, Great Britain and NATO call for a cease fire of military hostilities by both Russia and Georgia. August 9, 2008 - A delegation of EU and U.S. diplomats head to Georgia to resolve escalating tensions. August 10, 2008 - Russia moves tanks and soldiers through South Ossetia and into Georgia proper, advancing towards the city of Gori. August 12, 2008 - Russia calls a halt to its military incursion into Georgia and agrees to a six-point diplomatic push for peace. The plan is announced by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev . August 13, 2008 - President George W. Bush announces humanitarian aid is to be sent to Georgia. It is also announced that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will be sent to France and Georgia for a diplomatic mission. August 15, 2008 - Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili signs a cease fire agreement with Russia.

The deal is brokered by French President Nicolas Sarkozy. August 16, 2008 - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signs the cease fire agreement. August 22, 2008 - Russia completes its troop withdrawal from Georgia, as part of the cease fire agreement. August 26, 2008 - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signs an order recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. In response, U.S. President George W. Bush releases a statement saying, "The United States condemns the decision by the Russian president to recognize as independent states the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The territorial integrity and borders of Georgia must be respected, just as those of Russia or any other country." July 2009 - U.N. observers leave Georgia after 16 years. The mission was not extended due to a Russia veto. September 2009 - A report from an EU fact-finding mission determines that the 2008 conflict was caused by Georgia's illegal attack on the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali on August 7-8.

Question: What country did Russia invade in 2008?
Answer: Georgia