人類の絶滅
地球外生命の侵攻:一般にはSF上のシナリオと見なされている。地球外知的生命体探査(SETI)では、このような脅威についても真剣に検討されたが、結局起こりそうにないという結論に至った。
^ For research on this, see Psychological science volume 15 (2004): Decisions From Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice. The under-perception of rare events mentioned above is actually the opposite of the phenomenon originally described by Kahneman in "prospect theory" (in their original experiments the likelihood of rare events is overestimated). However, further analysis of the bias has shown that both forms occur: When judging from description people tend to overestimate the described probability, so this effect taken alone would indicate that reading the extinction scenarios described here should make the reader overestimate the likelihood of any probabilities given.