yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2021-01-01] overall, based on the june staff projections, real gdp was expected to exceed its pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2022, one quarter earlier than envisaged in the march staff projections.
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the existing highly accommodative stance of monetary policy.
[2021-01-01] if there were another serious economic setback, a different set of options would need to be considered.
[2021-01-01] some participants commented that recent readings of inflation measures that exclude volatile components, such as trimmed mean measures, had been relatively stable at or just below 2 percent.
[2021-01-01] falling non-oil import prices likely subtracted 1/4 percentage point from the annual rate of core inflation.10 Finally, the trajectory of federal government debt relative to GDP and views regarding th
[2021-01-01] The staff's June projections for the unemployment rate, real GDP growth, and inflation over the next few years were all a little lower, on balance, than those in its March forecast.
[2021-01-01] spreads for commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit across tenors were largely unchanged at historically low levels.
[2021-01-01] the material rise in spot and forward wholesale gas prices since the august report represents an upside risk to the mpc’s inflation projection from april 2022.
[2021-01-01] At the same time, however, the staff increased the growth rate forecast for 2006 to reflect the boost to economic activity from the rebuilding effort.
[2021-01-01] If we—if we analyze inflation data and conclude that, clearly, transitory influences are holding down inflation, I do not want to say that we would respond to that.
[2021-01-01] available indicators suggested that growth in business fixed investment was slowing somewhat in the third quarter as supply bottlenecks—particularly for motor vehicles—weighed on business equipment sp
[2021-01-01] and over half of the respondents to the latest cbi industrial trends survey had reported that materials or components were a factor limiting production over the next three months, with about a third o
[2021-01-01] Higher inflation expectations would in turn lead workers to bargain for commensurate raises in nominal wages to preserve the real value of their earnings.
[2021-01-01] the board remained committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions for a return to full employment in australia and inflation consistent with the 2 to 3 per cent target.
[2021-01-01] the rbnz had indicated that an increase in its policy rate would be appropriate soon because the economy is experiencing capacity constraints, inflationary pressures are building and inflation is near
[2021-01-01] this would allow the ngeu programme to contribute to a faster, stronger and more uniform recovery and would increase economic resilience as well as the growth potential of member states’ economies.
[2021-01-01] growth in credit extended to investors in housing had also strengthened from low levels.
[2021-01-01] beyond the near term, the outlook for canada is now stronger and more secure than in the october projection, thanks to earlier-than-expected availability of vaccines and significant ongoing policy sti
[2021-01-01] nevertheless, there were ongoing reports of firms using bonuses and other non-wage incentives to attract and retain labour, within a general environment of subdued wages growth.
[2021-01-01] From the end of 2000 to the end of 2003, productivity rose at a 3-1/2 percent annual rate and, even after recent downward revisions to the data, it is estimated to have increased at an average annual
[2021-01-01] canada’s economy had strong momentum through to late 2020, but the resurgence of cases and the reintroduction of lockdown measures are a serious setback.
[2021-01-01] this earlier convergence to the target also helped to hedge monetary policy against the risk of reacting to forecast errors, which tended to be larger at longer horizons.
[2021-01-01] the depreciation from the middle of the year had been consistent with the decline in yields on australian government bonds compared with those of other major advanced economies and, more recently, con
[2021-01-01] The outbreak has also disrupted economic activity in many countries and has prompted significant movements in financial markets.
[2021-01-01] health outcomes also continued to be an important source of uncertainty, although this was likely to diminish as a greater proportion of the population is vaccinated.
[2021-01-01] moreover, participants noted that employment in the leisure and hospitality sector was still down substantially from its pre-pandemic level despite a sharp rebound in february.
[2021-01-01] Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability. "
[2021-01-01] members noted that the extent of spare capacity in the economy at the end of the forecast period was uncertain, which meant that the gradual increase in inflation could be slower or faster than envisa
[2021-01-01] the bank has done this on multiple occasions in the past, notably during the global financial crisis and during a period of pandemic-related stress in march and april 2020.
[2021-01-01] the outlook has improved for both the global and canadian economies.
[2021-01-01] The bulk of the variation comes from what finance academics call "changes in discount rates," which is a fancy way of saying the non-fundamental stuff that we don't understand very well--and which can
[2021-01-01] this was considered unlikely for as long as substantial spare capacity remained in labour markets and wages growth remained subdued.
[2021-01-01] market expectations for the cash rate had been little changed, with market pricing still implying an expectation that the cash rate will begin to be increased from its current level late in 2022 or ea
[2021-01-01] It was noted, however, that increases in compensation that exceeded productivity gains might be absorbed to some extent by a narrowing of firms’ high profit margins.
[2021-01-01] combined with other measures of potential labour supply currently classified as outside the labour force, this suggested there was still a pool of workers available to firms should the demand for labo
[2021-01-01] overall, the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook were seen to remain tilted to the downside, although they were less pronounced.
[2021-01-01] it was argued that this would still need to be factored into the outlook and would imply a faster closing of the output gap.
[2021-01-01] The authorsâ€™ principal empirical finding is that the onset and, to a lesser degree, the end of the Great Inflation were closely synchronized across a number of countries.
[2021-01-01] In a traditional growth accounting setup, these effects would show up in multifactor productivity growth.
[2021-01-01] But before I comment on productivity, I'd like to begin with a review of recent economic developments.
[2021-01-01] housing activity has moderated, but is expected to remain elevated.
[2021-01-01] members concurred that the current and near-term increase in inflation was driven largely by temporary factors that would fade in the medium term.
[2021-01-01] both central banks were widely expected to have ceased net asset purchases by that time.
[2021-01-01] If you look at the number of job openings compared to the number of unemployed, it’s—we’re, we’re clearly on a path to a very strong labor market with high participation, low unemployment, high employ
[2021-01-01] overall, it appeared that banks' lending standards were being maintained.
[2021-01-01] the global recovery has lifted commodity prices, including oil, contributing to the strength of the canadian dollar.
[2021-01-01] market pricing implied that the fed could start raising its policy rate in late 2022 or early 2023, consistent with the ‘dot plot’, which summarises federal open market committee participants' outlook
[2021-01-01] members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global economy had continued to recover from the largest contraction in decades, supported by a substantial
[2021-01-01] Finally, I would like to note that the Committee strives to explain its monetary policy decisions as clearly as possible, and we continue to explore ways of enhancing the clarity of our public communi
[2021-01-01] The persistence of that into, into inflation over time is just not there.
[2021-01-01] investment-grade corporate bond spreads were little changed, on net, and spreads of municipal bond indexes increased slightly but remained well below pre-pandemic levels.
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent would be appropriate.
[2021-01-01] it was observed that this went hand in hand with a strong reliance on “just-in-time” delivery systems, raising the question of whether future systems would return to relying more on inventories and bu
[2021-01-01] In the productivity boom that followed World War I, a chief technological innovation was the spread of electrification to the factory floor.
[2021-01-01] the virus and lockdowns have had very different impacts across sectors, businesses, and groups of workers, creating an unusual degree of uncertainty about the amount of slack in the economy and how lo
[2021-01-01] On the other hand, by that metric, the, the September 16, 2020 unemployment rate would have been in the—in the 20s in, in April.
[2021-01-01] To be sure, the prices of assets and the level of debt seem to reflect expectations of a benign economic environment--one in which policy will tighten only gradually, the economy will continue to stre
[2021-01-01] In such an environment, a central bank mandated to pursue price stability can be flexible according to the circumstances, while one with a numerical target may need to obtain formal modification of it
[2021-01-01] it did not necessarily imply “lower for longer” interest rates if it ultimately succeeded in anchoring inflation expectations at the target, as intended.
[2021-01-01] the more contagious variants of the virus are straining healthcare systems and affecting hard-to-distance activities, and have introduced a new dimension of uncertainty.
[2021-01-01] members discussed the implications of the outbreak of the delta variant for the bank's bond purchase program.
[2021-01-01] however, it was also cautioned that the recent underestimation of inflation had to be interpreted in the context of the previous prolonged period of overestimation and the continued shortfall of longe
[2021-01-01] this formulation would also keep an element of the focus on current developments by retaining the reference to underlying inflation.
[2021-01-01] the participants' discussion was preceded by staff presentations that reviewed the principal channels through which asset purchases exert effects on financial conditions and the economy, with a focus
[2021-01-01] the outbreak of the delta variant had delayed, but not derailed, the recovery.
[2021-01-01] Most believed that downside risks to economic growth had diminished somewhat since the April meeting, but were still significant.
[2021-01-01] If you lay the crosscurrents on top of that—concerns about global growth and trade developments—you have the full picture.
[2021-01-01] government payments and other measures, such as loan deferrals and rent moratoria, had also boosted cash flows for firms adversely affected by lockdowns.
[2021-01-01] in the mpc’s central projection in the may monetary policy report, uk gdp had been expected to recover strongly over 2021, to pre-covid levels.
[2021-01-01] significant slack in the economy, weak wage growth and the past appreciation of the euro meant that underlying price pressures would likely remain subdued for some time.
[2021-01-01] We must keep in mind that, difficult as the problem seems, consistently measured prices do exist in principle.
[2021-01-01] we will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
[2021-01-01] members also noted data on domestic migration in australia showing that the population flow from capital cities to regional areas had picked up.
[2021-01-01] that engagement had taken place to explore the feasibility of such a monetary policy being introduced at some point in the future, were the mpc to judge it appropriate in order to meet the inflation t
[2021-01-01] overall, the incoming data confirmed the previous baseline assessment of a pronounced near-term impact of the pandemic on the economy and a protracted weakness in inflation.
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of considerations related to asset purchases, various participants noted that these purchases were an important part of the monetary policy toolkit and a critical aspect of the Fed
[2021-01-01] manufacturing activity continued to generally outperform activity in the services sector, and manufactured exports from china and some other asian economies remained strong, especially to the united s
[2021-01-01] in addition, the increase in oil prices since december has driven gasoline prices above their pre-pandemic levels.
[2021-01-01] Despite some recent turbulence, owing in part to geopolitical events, stock prices have logged robust gains over the past 3-1/2 years, and broad equity indices have now retraced most of the ground los
[2021-01-01] insolvencies and firm closures in 2020 had been supressed by a range of support measures, including stimulus payments, loan repayment deferrals, rent reductions and a moratorium on insolvencies.
[2021-01-01] the governing council’s commitment to preserving favourable financing conditions for all sectors of the economy over the pandemic period remained essential to reduce uncertainty and bolster confidence
[2021-01-01] the bank now forecasts canada’s economy will grow by 5 percent this year before moderating to 4¼ percent in 2022 and 3¾ percent in 2023.
[2021-01-01] the bank continues to provide extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate, reinforced and supplemented by the bank’s quantitative easing (qe) program.
[2021-01-01] headline inflation was being affected by higher prices for petrol and newly constructed homes, as well as strains in global supply chains.
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of the balance-of-risks sentence in the press statement to be issued shortly after this meeting, all the members agreed that the latter should continue to express, as it had for ev
[2021-01-01] In particular, the Committee noted that it would respond as necessary to maintain price stability.
[2021-01-01] the level of global gdp in 2021 q4 is likely to be broadly in line with the november report projection, but consumer price inflation in advanced economies has risen by more than expected.
[2021-01-01] a few central banks, including the bank of korea, norges bank and the reserve bank of new zealand, had already increased their policy rates.
[2021-01-01] the lifting of pandemic restrictions was supporting consumer spending, although higher energy prices might reduce purchasing power in the months to come.
[2021-01-01] persistent inflationary pressures related to rising energy prices and labour shortages had brought forward the timing of the bank of england's first policy rate increase implied by market pricing to e
[2021-01-01] So unemployment has tended to go up much faster for minorities and for others who are—tend to be at the low end of the income spectrum.
[2021-01-01] additional federal and provincial fiscal stimulus will contribute importantly to growth.
[2021-01-01] vaccine supplies remained limited in many emerging market countries, hampering their economic recoveries.
[2021-01-01] Nonetheless, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained.
[2021-01-01] however, new lockdowns will pose another setback and the labour market remains difficult for many canadians, especially low-wage workers, young people and women.
[2021-01-01] Our role, though, is also to, you know, to make sure that—that maximum employment happens in a context of price stability and financial stability, which is why we’re gradually raising rates.
[2021-01-01] hicp inflation had increased from 3.0% in august to 3.4% in september.
[2021-01-01] Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained.
[2021-01-01] In terms of the performance of inflation and unemployment, the experience of the past few years has not been unlike a mirror image of the 1970s.
[2021-01-01] large shipbuilders were also planning to increase capacity following several years where investment in shipping had been weak, but this would take time.
[2021-01-01] They would account for the effects of higher energy prices on the real disposable income and spending demands of the household sector.
[2021-01-01] labour market indicators continued to be heavily affected by government support programmes, which complicated the assessment of underlying developments.
[2021-01-01] To the extent the global economy is weak and the United States is strong, it’ll—we’ll wind up, you know, we’ll wind up exporting some of our demand through, through imports rather than having, having
[2021-01-01] We know that the short end of the yield curve is dominated by monetary policy and cyclical factors.
[2021-01-01] housing credit growth had continued to pick up, with ongoing strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers.
[2021-01-01] This aggregate growth-accounting framework forms the economic underpinning of key comprehensive productivity statistics produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
[2021-01-01] The tendency may be natural to allow more flexibility when central banks are focused on inflation maintenance than when they seek inflation reduction.
[2021-01-01] growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be negative.
[2021-01-01] wage and price inflation were at much lower levels than over the preceding decade, and, because of inertia in wage- and price-setting practices, it was possible that price pressures could be slow to b
[2021-01-01] Monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effects of a permanent rise in energy prices, which include both its direct impact on the energy component of overall consumer prices and th
[2021-01-01] developments in household bank deposits as an up-to-date, high-frequency proxy for savings showed that households continued to save less than during the height of the pandemic.
[2021-01-01] If you look at core PCE inflation, which is a good measure of where inflation is running now, if you look at it on a 3-, 6-, and 12-month trailing annualized basis, you’ll see that inflation is at 4.8
[2021-01-01] the borrowing costs of households for house purchase remained substantially below their level at the start of the pandemic, as did borrowing costs for consumer lending.
[2021-01-01] nonetheless, significant structural vulnerabilities remained at entities such as prime money funds, and new financial arrangements such as stablecoins appeared to have the same structural maturity and
[2021-01-01] according to the latest ecb survey of professsional forecasters for the second quarter of 2021, headline inflation expectations had been revised up for 2021, while medium and longer-term expectations
[2021-01-01] Indeed, the website of the Central Bank of Brazil explicitly acknowledges the role of inflation in driving financial innovations that enabled firms and households to economize on cash balances in that
[2021-01-01] there were no reported corporate defaults in april, and defaults were low in may.
[2021-01-01] the bank is ending quantitative easing (qe) and moving into the reinvestment phase, during which it will purchase government of canada bonds solely to replace maturing bonds.
[2021-01-01] Many of our critics tend to focus only on the inflation aspect of our mandate and ignore the employment leg of our mandate.
[2021-01-01] consumption is forecast to gain strength as parts of the economy reopen and confidence improves, and exports and business investment will be buoyed by rising foreign demand.
[2021-01-01] assuming restrictions are lifted later in the first quarter, the bank expects a strong second-quarter rebound.
[2021-01-01] while the possibility of second-round effects was considered to be limited in the presence of labour market slack, it was argued that price effects could be greater than currently estimated if labour
[2021-01-01] preserving favourable financing conditions for an extended period of time helped to support inflation developments via multiple channels.
[2021-01-01] most of the decline in non-energy industrial goods inflation could be attributed to the weakness in clothing and footwear inflation, which could be expected to be corrected to some extent after the pa
[2021-01-01] it was underlined that households’ inflation expectations differed from those of financial market participants and professional forecasters, but it would be welcome if this translated into higher infl
[2021-01-01] For example, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.3 percentage points since March, and new claims for unemployment insurance have moved somewhat higher.
[2021-01-01] the increase in long-term bond yields had been more muted in the euro area than in other advanced economies.
[2021-01-01] their contacts had also reported that pay increases had been significantly higher for workers with skills in particularly short supply, such as hgv drivers, while the use of one-off bonuses to retain
[2021-01-01] Most other market interest rates declined further on balance over the period in an atmosphere of greater volatility in financial markets.
[2021-01-01] more recently, there had also been some increase in real yields in most advanced economies.
[2021-01-01] however, with monetary policy assumed to remain highly accommodative, the staff continued to anticipate that real gdp growth would outpace growth in potential output over most of this period, leading
[2021-01-01] vaccines are proving highly effective against the virus, although their availability and distribution globally remain uneven and covid variants pose risks to health and economic activity.
[2021-01-01] moreover, the governing council would commit to an ambitious action plan, as outlined in the dedicated press release.
[2021-01-01] after a contraction of 2 ½ percent in 2020, the bank now projects global gdp to grow by just over 6 ¾ percent in 2021, about 4 percent in 2022, and almost 3 ½ percent in 2023.
[2021-01-01] The strongest case for a link between monetary policy and changes in inflation dynamics is in the greater stability of inflation.
[2021-01-01] The external sector was expected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period.
[2021-01-01] In some models, these factors can be explicitly tied to observable economic variables, such as inflation; in other models, the factors represent statistical summaries of the data and have no explicit
[2021-01-01] In addition to the headwinds facing demand, there could be persistent effects on the supply side of the economy.
[2021-01-01] based on the bank’s latest projection, this is now expected to happen some time in the second half of 2022.
[2021-01-01] From a policy perspective, a difficulty with all these measures is that they reflect expectations of headline inflation rather than the core inflation measures usually emphasized in the monetary polic
[2021-01-01] there had been strong growth in employment and a welcome decline in the unemployment rate.
[2021-01-01] in the bank’s projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022.
[2021-01-01] It was to do with, you know, strong monetary policy and fiscal stimulus into an economy that was recovering rapidly, and in which there were these supply-side barriers which effectively led to, you kn
[2021-01-01] as vaccines roll out and the economy reopens, consumption is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of this year and remain robust over the projection.