yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2019-01-01] liaison with banks and other lenders suggested that the requirements for more thorough verification of income and expenditure data had led to an increase in loan approval times in 2018, but subsequent
[2019-01-01] While recognizing the value of smoothing, I still feel that in the interest rate targeting regime the Fed now uses, we should at times be ready to change interest rates quite quickly in response to ec
[2019-01-01] Over the intermeeting period, yields on short- and intermediate-term nominal Treasury securities fell, while yields on inflation-indexed Treasury securities of comparable maturity increased somewhat,
[2019-01-01] the committee noted that a number of market-based measures of implied and realised volatility had remained historically low, which appeared at odds with the elevated level of aggregate measures of pol
[2019-01-01] on the other hand, the lower level of the canadian dollar will exert some upward pressure on inflation.
[2019-01-01] financing conditions in the residential mortgage market remained accommodative over the intermeeting period.
[2019-01-01] governing council is mindful that the resilience of canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist.
[2019-01-01] equity markets in the advanced economies had been little changed in march, having previously rebounded from their sharp fall in late 2018.
[2019-01-01] several participants noted that statistical models designed to gauge the probability of recession, including those based on information from the yield curve, suggested that the likelihood of a recessi
[2019-01-01] longer-term inflation expectations, five years ahead, in the survey of professional forecasters (spf) stood at 1.8% in the first quarter of 2019.
[2019-01-01] So you’re right, you’re seeing—I, I can’t remember the number, but it might be in the 3s—3, 3½ percent growth for next year.
[2019-01-01] In any case, the real federal funds rate is now lower than prior to the easings, at the same time that the unemployment rate is lower and projected growth higher than it was prior to the easings.
[2019-01-01] the extension of the slower growth momentum had, in part, already been anticipated in the march 2019 ecb staff projections, but it was also acknowledged that some recent data had turned out even weake
[2019-01-01] members had a detailed discussion of spare capacity in the labour market.
[2019-01-01] in november, core inflation had increased to 1.3%, although that increase had in part appeared to reflect a new method for calculating the german package holiday price index.
[2019-01-01] taking into account the foregoing discussion among the members, on a proposal from the president, the governing council decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the intere
[2019-01-01] this appeared to be in line with the state-contingent elements of the governing council’s forward guidance on both of these instruments and contributed to preserving the financial conditions necessary
[2019-01-01] in this context, global financial conditions have eased substantially.
[2019-01-01] the global economic expansion continues to moderate, with growth forecast to slow to 3.4 per cent in 2019 from 3.7 per cent in 2018.
[2019-01-01] a growing number of countries have responded with monetary and other policy measures to support their economies.
[2019-01-01] such an announcement would provide more certainty about the process for completing the normalization of the size of the federal reserve's balance sheet.
[2019-01-01] in considering the appropriate path for monetary policy, the bank will be monitoring the extent to which the global slowdown spreads beyond manufacturing and investment.
[2019-01-01] The risks to the forecast for real GDP growth and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting recent financial developments and concerns about the foreign economic outlook, as well as th
[2019-01-01] meanwhile, consumption spending and housing investment have been weaker than expected as housing markets adjust to municipal and provincial measures, changes to mortgage guidelines, and higher interes
[2019-01-01] the bank projects real gdp will grow by 1.7 per cent in 2019, 0.4 percentage points slower than the october outlook.
[2019-01-01] all things considered, governing council judges it appropriate to maintain the current level of the overnight rate target.
[2019-01-01] And I really don’t have much for you other than to say that they will be data dependent—that, over time, the stance of policy will be adjusted to try to keep the economy on a track where we see contin
[2019-01-01] turning to domestic financial markets, members noted that growth in housing lending to owner-occupiers had slowed to 5 per cent in six-month-ended annualised terms, while growth in lending to investor
[2019-01-01] hicp excluding energy and food had been revised down by 0.2 percentage points in each year of the projection horizon.
[2019-01-01] a final decision on the imposition of us tariffs on imports of automotive products had been delayed for 180 days.
[2019-01-01] the bank projects real gdp growth to average 1.3 percent in 2019 and about 2 percent in 2020 and 2021.
[2019-01-01] measures of underlying inflation had continued to move sideways, even if labour cost pressures had continued to strengthen and broaden as labour markets had tightened further.
[2019-01-01] however, the forecast pick-up in underlying inflation was now expected to occur a little later than previously expected, mainly as a result of the lower forecast for growth in gdp and downside risks t
[2019-01-01] I expect that to continue, and I would expect also to see some improvement in the degree of part-time employment that’s for economic reasons.
[2019-01-01] notwithstanding the slower growth in output, labour markets in the major advanced economies had remained tight and there had been ongoing signs of upward pressure on wages.
[2019-01-01] the bank of canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ percent.
[2019-01-01] mining investment was expected to increase over the forecast period as mining firms invest to maintain production; this outlook was supported by mining firms' profitability having remained strong.
[2019-01-01] in particular, growth in the united states remains solid but is expected to slow to a more sustainable pace through 2019.
[2019-01-01] reported housing prices in sydney and melbourne had risen noticeably in august and auction clearance rates had increased further, although volumes had remained low.
[2019-01-01] In this less comfortable world, restoring price stability can involve a painful process of slow growth and elevated unemployment.
[2019-01-01] He thought future developments were equally likely to warrant an action in either direction, and he did not think the Committee should take a step that probably would cause expectations of further eas
[2019-01-01] first, yield spreads of higher-yielding euro area sovereign bonds – with the exception of italian government bonds – had declined in recent weeks, unlike in periods of broad risk aversion, when these
[2019-01-01] Others indicated that because part of the recent decline in the jobless rate was associated with a reduction in labor force participation, the drop in the unemployment rate likely overstated the overa
[2019-01-01] this is roughly in line with the global economy’s potential and a modest downgrade to the bank’s january projection.
[2019-01-01] in the united states, marked-based inflation expectations had also declined more recently.
[2019-01-01] some members expressed the recognition that the pace of economic growth was highly likely to recover through the second half of 2019, partly because the effects of stimulus measures gradually would ma
[2019-01-01] conversely, a shorter horizon would provide a stronger signal to banks that they needed to be prepared to secure funding on private markets and avoid becoming overly reliant on central bank funding.
[2019-01-01] Consequently, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.
[2019-01-01] in hong kong, political tensions had contributed to the sharpest fall in economic activity since the_ global financial crisis.
[2019-01-01] In addition, though the unemployment rate has fallen since the middle of 2003, the participation rate currently remains near the low point reached in the first half of 2004.
[2019-01-01] recent data show the canadian economy is returning to potential growth.
[2019-01-01] looking ahead, exports and non-energy investment are projected to grow solidly, supported by foreign demand, the cusma, the lower canadian dollar, and federal tax measures targeted at investment.
[2019-01-01] the bank projects real gdp will grow by 1.5 percent this year, 1.7 percent in 2020 and 1.8 percent in 2021.
[2019-01-01] inflation remains around the 2 percent target, with some recent upward pressure from higher food and automobile prices.
[2019-01-01] cpi inflation will likely dip this year because of the dynamics of gasoline prices and some other temporary factors.
[2019-01-01] members noted that meat prices had also been supported by strong demand from china to replace lost domestic pork production as a result of african swine flu and were likely to remain high for some tim
[2019-01-01] according to the october sloos, commercial banks tightened their standards on credit cards and other consumer loans over the third quarter.
[2019-01-01] The staff forecast prepared for this meeting continued to suggest that the expansion would gradually moderate from its currently elevated pace to a rate around, or perhaps a little below, the growth o
[2019-01-01] however, business sentiment appeared to remain strong for some industries, particularly those most closely connected with consumer goods.
[2019-01-01] Holiday shopping reportedly was relatively solid, and, reflecting the improvement in the housing market, demand for home furnishings and construction materials was up.
[2019-01-01] The recent strains in financial markets posed additional downside risks to economic growth.
[2019-01-01] at the meeting of the council on economic and fiscal policy, initiatives regarding a variety of sectors were being discussed -- such as next-generation administrative services, regional revitalization
[2019-01-01] We also expect it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committe
[2019-01-01] the bank had already incorporated such negative effects in previous monetary policy reports (mpr) and in this forecast has made further adjustments in light of weaker sentiment and activity in major e
[2019-01-01] Nonetheless, participants noted a risk that the drop-back in inflation could be slower or more limited than the Committee would find desirable since resource utilization was currently tight and the pi
[2019-01-01] yields on nominal treasury securities were little changed on net.
[2019-01-01] So on the first, the Committee’s forecasts and those of most outside forecasters do show growth running below its longer-run potential this year and next year.
[2019-01-01] most participants judged that long-term inflation expectations either were already below the committee's 2 percent goal or could decline below the level consistent with that goal should there be a con
[2019-01-01] the bank now expects global gdp to grow by 3 percent in 2019 and to strengthen to around 3 ¼ percent in 2020 and 2021, with the us slowing to a pace near its potential.
[2019-01-01] members noted that it was difficult to predict the effectiveness of recent policy measures in china and how the authorities would balance their objectives of supporting growth and containing financial
[2019-01-01] growth in consumption was expected to increase over the forecast period, supported by some recovery in growth in household income and the turnaround in prices in the established housing market.
[2019-01-01] Implications for Monetary Policy In summary, there appears to be some possibility that the recent trend toward disinflation will continue, primarily because of the potentially large amount of economic
[2019-01-01] this outlook was predicated on financial conditions that were more accommodative than earlier this year.
[2019-01-01] the increase in non-farm payrolls in october had been somewhat higher than expected, although the unemployment rate had ticked up, to 3.6%.
[2019-01-01] Looking ahead, an abatement or reversal of some of the temporary factors reducing prices was likely to raise measured inflation.
[2019-01-01] members observed that financing conditions for corporations had improved.
[2019-01-01] new dwelling prices had declined again in the june quarter, reflecting the use of bonus offers and purchase incentives by developers to counter the weak housing conditions.
[2019-01-01] b) with regard to debt of companies that have not obtained an external credit rating, the companies should be classified as normal borrowers in the self-assessment by financial institutions.
[2019-01-01] there had been an increase in inflation for retail items because there had been some pass-through of the exchange rate depreciation and the drought had boosted certain food prices.
[2019-01-01] We understand that inflation dynamics evolve constantly over time, but they don’t change rapidly.
[2019-01-01] looking further ahead, members widely shared the view that the more protracted “soft patch” suggested by the latest data remained consistent with the baseline scenario of a return to more solid growth
[2019-01-01] still, global growth is expected to slow to around 3 percent this year before edging up over the next two years.
[2019-01-01] these firms' access to finance had been tightened over the course of 2018 as a result of earlier measures by the authorities to reduce risks in the financial system by restricting the availability of
[2019-01-01] one member, referring to the fact that the bank had conducted additional monetary easing half a year after the previous consumption tax hike took place in 2014, pointed to the possibility that it migh
[2019-01-01] I mean certain parts of South Carolina have developed pretty strongly but the part where I come from—mostly agricultural, it has a little bit of manufacturing—has a very high unemployment rate, a high
[2019-01-01] banks' longer-term funding costs had declined a little over recent months, consistent with lower long-term government bond yields, even though spreads on bank bonds had increased over the preceding ye
[2019-01-01] the argument was made that the export weakness could over time be expected to spill over to domestic demand and to the services sector of the economy, and there were already some indications of the sl
[2019-01-01] Nonetheless, participants generally saw the unemployment rate as still elevated and were not yet confident that the recent progress toward the Committee's employment objective would be sustained.
[2019-01-01] however, ongoing trade conflicts and competitiveness challenges are dampening the outlook for trade and investment.
[2019-01-01] To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averag
[2019-01-01] So negative interest rates is something that we looked at during the financial crisis and chose not to do.
[2019-01-01] staff economic outlook the projection for u.s. real gdp growth prepared by the staff for the december fomc meeting was revised up a little for the second half of 2019 relative to the previous projecti
[2019-01-01] taking into account the effects of the new carbon pollution charge, as well as modest excess capacity, the bank expects inflation to remain around 2 per cent through 2020 and 2021.
[2019-01-01] We heard anecdotes today in the meeting about firms that might be government contractors that were, you know, not sure about whether the contracts would still be in place come January and making emplo
[2019-01-01] And I think, more broadly, monetary policy is also supporting household spending and home buying by keeping the labor market strong, keeping workers’ incomes rising, and keeping consumer confidence at
[2019-01-01] In both of the examples I have just discussed, the medium-frequency evolution of market-based, survey-based, and model-based estimates of r* and expected inflation have, over time, tended to move broa
[2019-01-01] although mining investment had declined in the march quarter as large liquefied natural gas (lng) projects approached completion, the medium-term outlook for mining investment had remained positive.
[2019-01-01] mr. g. kataoka expressed the opinion that further coordination of fiscal and monetary policy was important in order to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent at the earliest possible time, an
[2019-01-01] at the same time, the major banks' retail deposit rates had continued to drift down.
[2019-01-01] industrial production moved down in april and picked up in may, leaving output about flat over those two months, but production was lower than at the beginning of the year.
[2019-01-01] in addition, it was noted that the baseline did not contain some trade measures that had been announced since the finalisation of the projection exercise.
[2019-01-01] variable mortgage rates had declined broadly in line with the reductions in the cash rate in june and july.
[2019-01-01] overall, the bank expects inflation to track close to the 2 percent target over the projection horizon.
[2019-01-01] trade concerns have contributed to volatility in global equity prices and corporate bond spreads, as well as falls in industrial metals prices.
[2019-01-01] there were some signs that labour demand may have softened, as expected in the may report.
[2019-01-01] residential building approvals had declined further over may and june and were around their lowest levels in six years.
[2019-01-01] A discernable upcreep was apparent in survey measures of short- and, to a limited extent, long-term inflation expectations over recent months.
[2019-01-01] this will open up a modest amount of excess capacity, primarily in oil-producing regions.
[2019-01-01] despite wages growth having generally trended higher over the preceding few years, inflation had remained below target in a range of economies.
[2019-01-01] extra-euro area exports were expected to remain subdued on account of weakening foreign demand growth.
[2019-01-01] on the other hand, exports remained more or less flat, mainly due to the intensified and prolonged u.s.-china trade friction, and business fixed investment continued to show relatively weak developmen
[2019-01-01] this reflects the uncertainty associated with trade conflicts, continuing adjustment in the energy sector, and the unwinding of temporary factors that boosted growth in the second quarter.
[2019-01-01] other downside risks included the possibility of sizable spillovers from a greater-than-expected economic slowdown in europe and china, persistence of the softness in spending, or a sharp falloff in f
[2019-01-01] as for the employment and income situation, members shared the recognition that supply-demand conditions in the labor market remained tight, and that employee income had increased.
[2019-01-01] Consider a price increase for a breakfast cereal that increases the prices of both the brand-name cereal and the corresponding lower-priced store-brand cereal but maintains a differential between them
[2019-01-01] while longer-term survey-based inflation expectations in the ecb survey of professional forecasters for the second quarter of 2019 had been unchanged at 1.8%, the market-based measure of the five-year
[2019-01-01] bank staff estimated that unit labour cost growth had fallen back slightly, to 2.6%, in q1, and projected a 3.0% rise in q2.
[2019-01-01] A couple of participants thought it premature to focus on this latter eventuality, observing that the purchase program had been effective and that more time was needed to assess the outlook for the la
[2019-01-01] according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation was 1.2% in may 2019, after 1.7% in april, mainly reflecting lower energy and services price inflation.
[2019-01-01] further out, the responses of companies and households would depend on developments in the next stage of the brexit process, including negotiations about the nature of, and the transition to, the unit
[2019-01-01] So, if we maintain a highly accommodative monetary policy for a very long time from here and the economy performs as we expect—namely, it’s strong and the risks that are out there don’t materialize—my
[2019-01-01] You know, it’s interest rates, it’s risk spreads, it’s currency, it’s the stock market, it’s credit availability, it’s many, many factors.
[2019-01-01] members were mindful, however, that monetary policy was already expansionary and that the lower exchange rate was also supporting growth.
[2019-01-01] contacts had reported that tighter access to credit for off-the-plan and project homes had been constraining buyer demand.
[2019-01-01] the staff also noted that the sustained growth of lending by banks to nonbank financial firms represented an increase in financial interconnectedness.
[2019-01-01] while price differentials have narrowed in recent weeks following announced mandatory production cuts in alberta, investment in canada’s oil sector is projected to weaken further.
[2019-01-01] housing investment has been more or less flat, and public investment has increased moderately.
[2019-01-01] policy measures had continued to support growth and had been tilted towards steel-intensive activities.
[2019-01-01] In this environment, America's prospects for economic growth will greatly depend on our capacity to develop and to apply new technology--a quest that inevitably will entail some risk-taking.
[2019-01-01] So you’re going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be, how fast the labor market will heal, or how fast—sorry, inflation will move up.
[2019-01-01] the bank will continue with quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (qqe) with yield curve control, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2 percent, as long as it is necessary for maint
[2019-01-01] in particular, we are monitoring developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy to gauge the extent to which the factors weighing on growth and the inflation outlook are diss
[2019-01-01] information from liaison suggested employment intentions had remained weak in the residential construction sector but positive among services firms.
[2019-01-01] the balance of risks remained tilted to the downside, despite the downward revision to the growth projections, largely on account of persistent sources of uncertainty relating to the international env
[2019-01-01] accommodative monetary policy, strong public demand, a renewed expansion in the resources sector and growth in exports were also expected to support a return of gdp growth to trend over coming years.
[2019-01-01] yields on nominal u.s. treasury securities moved down in the early part of the intermeeting period but later retraced their declines.
[2019-01-01] the baseline scenario of a rebound in growth in the second half of the year remained broadly intact, while the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remained tilted to the downside.
[2019-01-01] the government would continue to promote the integrated economic and fiscal reforms toward achieving the fiscal consolidation target by fiscal 2025, in line with the new plan to advance economic and f
[2019-01-01] the committee reviewed developments since its previous meeting and the extent to which they had been in line with the projections in the november report.
[2019-01-01] in response, a few members, noting that central banks sought to conduct monetary policy in an appropriate manner with a view to stabilizing economic activity and prices in their own countries, express