yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1977-01-18] We've been thinking about that in terms of financial market projections.
[1977-01-18] The risk is the Bank of England declares itself bankrupt, and I think that risk is a minimal risk.
[1977-01-18] There has to be a publication within a framework of 30 days for comment, then a review of the comments and a simultaneous oversight review by the Administrative Conference of the United States under t
[1977-01-18] Let me make this suggestion to the Committee, and then we will discuss this: that we vote on a range of 3 to 7 for M1, 7 to 11 for M2, and 4-1/4 to 5 for the federal funds rate but that the midpoint b
[1977-01-18] That is the sort of thing we need to keep in mind and keep watching for over the next few months.
[1977-01-18] I would say that, for the coming month, it would be an unacceptable increase.
[1977-01-18] The only way I've ever understood the whole swap network is in the language of loans.
[1977-01-18] And let's take perhaps a short break, coffee break, if you so wish.
[1977-02-15] Unfortunately, the people who comment on this don't recognize this--it stirs up concerns.
[1977-03-15] We have in Chicago a development, which is still in its infancy, to encourage the development of a bankers' acceptances market in Chicago which would be, in some phases at least, independent of the ma
[1977-03-15] I'd like to come back to Jerry's remarks on productivity and unit labor costs and ask him a question.
[1977-04-19] We are asked to do this tentatively, subject to our afterthoughts after the President's program is announced, and for that reason I would be happy with leaving M1 alone at the moment.
[1977-04-19] If the GNP pattern, as well as the projection, is right, [unintelligible] so much investment, so much consumption, why of course, the whole thing isn't generally consistent and it tends to break up.
[1977-05-17] And the farmer's ability to repay in many instances is limited by the income that he can earn off of working that land.
[1977-05-17] Well, I think that my feeling, Mr. Chairman, is that we ought to make a bigger move right now.
[1977-06-21] And if you look at the hourly earnings index, why it seems to me the performance is really pretty good.
[1977-06-21] We can make a big issue of this, and maybe we should make an issue--I have in one or two cases, but--
[1977-07-19] So, from that standpoint, if there were any significant rule [unintelligible], the midpoint would probably be [unintelligible] making its presence in the market early.
[1977-07-19] But on the negative side, we've had an extremely rapid recovery recently in residential construction activity.
[1977-07-19] It seems to me that one of the reasons that investment demand has been so sluggish in Germany
[1977-08-16] May I just say I don't think that that recommendation is consistent with your recommendation on lowering the limits for M1.
[1977-08-16] In looking back over the year and a half that I've had the privilege of attending these meetings, and listening to inputs such as we're presently providing, that year and a half in terms of business c
[1977-08-16] So it seemed to be just a perfectly legitimate inquiry which was satisfied.
[1977-08-16] A couple meetings ago I reported on the sentiment of businessmen in our area, which of course is not the most vigorous area in the country, and it's one of concern and remains one of concern.
[1977-09-20] And you know, one of the reasons for a dialogue such as we have is that we see the world differently.
[1977-10-18] Now does this represent a shift in consumer preference towards lower prices, or [a decision that] a [used] car that only goes 20,000 more miles doesn't really need a 50,000-mile tire?
[1977-10-18] Now this may conceivably be the exception, that this bulge is one that we won't regret, that this bulge may, as Steve suggests, be over.
[1977-10-18] In our flow of funds forecast, we have the thrift institutions actually liquidating liquid assets to fund their outstanding commitments in the shorter run and relying quite a bit more heavily on Home
[1977-10-18] But I've got to go to another meeting, and I believe the Bank Presidents have scheduled a meeting to start at 5:00.
[1977-10-18] I look at the economy and I wonder whether it's the kind of an economy in which we want to have a substantial rise in interest rates, a substantial shift in the flow of funds away from the thrifts and
[1977-11-15] President Baughman, the language in the Court of Appeals, I think, should be read much like in a parental circumstance, where mother says, "Ask your father.
[1977-11-15] It's not usually a case where you're moving in one direction and then another; why, that really is more sensitive, in a way, than the meeting itself.
[1977-12-20] But the exchange rate is taken in for financial assets, and therefore they will have appreciation.
[1977-12-20] I believe that would be fairly read as a denial of the request for the information sought.
[1978-01-17] You might expect that we would get M1 growth of as much as 10 percent in the quarter.
[1978-01-17] But you know in another way, I felt this was a very onerous job, Mr. Chairman, psychologically.
[1978-01-17] So we are back where we've been right along and that's dependent on the consumer.
[1978-02-28] [Inflation] does seem to be a concern that more of our people have, and for that reason the major difference we have with the staff forecast is on their expectation of inflation.
[1978-02-28] It=s that kind of credibility that we need; then we don=t have to operate on a big scale.
[1978-02-28] And there the problem is to convince them rather than just to assert it.
[1978-03-21] [the repayment period] a little and in return, I hope, we'd get the Bundesbank's agreement for direct purchases as necessary in paying this debt off.
[1978-03-21] Mr. Chairman, I feel very strongly about wanting the Treasury to share the burdens of operations on our part abroad.
[1978-03-21] What happens now is that it all seems patently inconsistent to the public because we appear to be tightening when there's no reason and we appear to be easing when there's no reason.
[1978-03-21] Then our choices are going to narrow down to whether we'll take a lower growth rate in our economy, because it doesn't look like we are getting the relative speedup in other economies.
[1978-03-21] If you contemplate what Humphrey-Hawkins implies, if anybody abroad thought this would be taken seriously, we would be disavowing all our anti-inflation effort.
[1978-04-18] And that is not terribly good because that level of economic activity, coupled with the inflationary pressures, is all going to come crashing together.
[1978-04-18] And we wouldn't have to have Henry negotiate how we pay [the swap debt] off.
[1978-04-18] Well, I haven't seen-- We had one day or two days on which the dollar rose.
[1978-04-18] [regarding] my expectations for the economy--that we are going to attack this inflation rate promptly and are likely to slow down the economy in the latter part of this year.
[1978-05-16] Well, hearing all that, let me see if I can come up with a proposal to be voted on.
[1978-05-16] I was just wondering what odds you would put on an upward revision of that [Q1 GNP] from an actual decline to a positive figure.
[1978-05-16] We are likely to get another bad month in April because we've had a bad wholesale price index.
[1978-05-16] There are those reasons for their being sold--foreign accounts, captive-type customers, and others who [unintelligible].
[1978-05-16] Yes, I would criticize our earlier discussion for that ambiguity, Steve.
[1978-05-16] I am especially worried about price pressures, which I view as very strong; and if fed by the availability of credit, they will intensify.
[1978-06-20] It may mean that we will use other lines of communication that are more secure.
[1978-06-20] Gentlemen, we are going to have John Denkler here in a moment, but you have seen the memo and we have a serious problem.
[1978-06-20] Whether or not it would be wise, possible, desirable, or agreeable to temporarily suspend the ranges for M1 until we can find out what=s happening, I don=t know.
[1978-06-20] Last month I would have preferred line 27; this month I prefer line 28 because I think we are going to have a very tough time operating--
[1978-07-18] So activity is slowing down and we would like to have, aside from the governmental programs, a slowdown in the rates of increase of inflation.
[1978-07-18] I can visualize, because of the very fact that NOW accounts have been talked about so widely nationally, that people would be prepared for them now and would be interested in taking advantage of them.
[1978-07-18] Mr. Chairman, I think we still have significant expansive elements in the economy and I share what I think is the staff's view that the distortions are not yet great enough, and that it will take a fa
[1978-08-15] If I read the directive right--the way this is written on the back of page 13--you start moving the fed funds rate on a monetary aggregates approach [if growth is] significantly above or below the mid
[1978-08-15] [our view] is that we're in that range and the other things are going to slow down the economy [but firms will] not discharge labor because apparently productivity is not going to [increase].
[1978-09-19] I might point out that on page 7 of the staff's projections for M1 growth, either alternative A or B would indicate nearly a 2 percentage point drop between the fourth quarter of '78 and the first qua
[1978-09-19] I think a major difference in these forecasts relates to consumer spending patterns.
[1978-09-19] Also, I'm a little curious about your description of industrial production slowing when we're still getting more than 1/2 percent a month, having come off [unintelligible].
[1978-09-19] Mr. Chairman, would it be appropriate to take a consensus on what I think is essentially Paul Volcker's suggestion of 4 to 8 on the M1 range and the others as you [suggested]?
[1978-09-19] I think it depends partly, Mr. Chairman, on what you think the intervention is for.
[1978-09-19] As Henry indicated, a very basic factor is the inflation rates that we're having.
[1978-10-17] With the number of variables that have already been mentioned around the table--and every time somebody speaks they mention another one I hadn't thought of--it strikes me that M1+ is the only reasonab
[1978-10-17] The way I read the consensus forecast outside of the Fed, our staff forecast for the next year is one of the highest, and I think we are too high.
[1978-10-17] The only way we can make the adjustment is to figure out what we think the most likely adjustment is.
[1978-10-17] But even the most ardent monetarists, Mr. Chairman, have spoken up consistently for a very gradual reduction.
[1978-11-21] In the short run, the Committee seeks to achieve bank reserve and money market conditions that are broadly consistent with the longer-run ranges for the money aggregates cited above, while supporting
[1978-12-19] It comes up every meeting because I don't know that you can bind future FOMCs to having only certain spreads.
[1978-12-19] But we think what is consistent with the way people report and analyze and use our data and the GNP data is to make it fourth quarter-to-fourth quarter.
[1978-12-19] I was under the impression that most of those who have higher deficit numbers are operating with different economic assumptions.
[1978-12-19] This is the basic limit and I think the Committee probably ought to have one.
[1979-02-06] Well, if Steve is right, we should have a month of very large increases [in monetary growth].
[1979-02-06] Well, Steve is frank to say that he is expecting these aggregates to pop back up and adjust this process.
[1979-03-20] If so, that's an important reason for not doing anything at this particular time.
[1979-03-20] I hope Chuck has a king size bed because I would like to crawl into it too!
[1979-03-20] Even if we look at the latest monthly growth numbers on MI, which includes all these money market funds, RPs, commercial paper, and so forth, the percentage growth now is less than half--or at least i
[1979-03-20] The money market funds have been coming mostly out of M2, I think, rather than M1.
[1979-03-20] And if the aggregates started to break through that bottom, I would have a telephone conference call.
[1979-04-17] We're going to have very little room for dissent when we're through here!
[1979-05-22] Mr. Chairman, the ranges Steve suggested are just about one half point off my suggestion.
[1979-05-22] A total of 5-1/2 billion Deutschmarks were involved in that and the Treasury had spent 1.2 billion of that amount in intervention earlier this year.
[1979-05-22] It seems to me that our current posture has some elements of restraint but those elements of restraint are coming in the housing field, largely in the usury ceilings and the thrift flows, which of cou
[1979-05-22] I have real reservations about going up to $2 billion, based on a very skeptical attitude regarding decisions on what constitutes excessive movements one way or another vis-a-vis what the market is sa
[1979-05-22] I must add for the benefit of everyone else that this T-shirt is being offered to member banks for $ 2 . 0 0 and to nonmembers for $10.00.
[1979-07-11] It was just a happy coincidence that they happened to have securities to sell at a higher price.
[1979-07-11] And it's quite clear to us that if we had lower rates of money growth over an extended period of time, we would get lower rates of inflation.
[1979-09-18] If I had a preference straight out, the range would be 3 to 7 percent, but I'm persuaded that with the present projection 8 percent growth is a possibility.
[1979-10-06] I would like to see something like 9 percent on the low side and 15 to 16 percent on the high side.
[1979-10-06] Mr. Chairman, may I make a strong plea that you allow the rest of us to get in on this [discount rate action]?
[1979-10-06] [of technique]: and (C) I think they are so skeptical that they'd just say it's too little and, without some effort on the part of the Treasury or somebody else, there would be no direct impact on the
[1979-10-06] We wouldn't be here today if we didn't have a problem with the state of the markets, whether international or domestic.
[1979-11-20] [I wonder] how much shock effect we'll be getting in behavior for the moment and to what extent that may [erode] because availability is really not affected though price certainly has been in the real
[1979-11-20] It seems to me that autos and housing are very weak and the rest of the economy continues to hang up there.
[1980-01-09] You mean we should react more rapidly if M1 growth goes up with the interest rates falling than if M1 growth went down and interest rates were rising.
[1980-01-09] We don't have any additional information; in fact, I'm not sure that the Commerce Department has anything in the way of hard evidence right now.
[1980-01-09] So we would have to anticipate the rise in the personal income tax as we cut back on the social security tax increase, if we didn't want to increase the deficit.
[1980-01-09] We showed the actual growth rate of M1 for 1979 of 5.5 percent and I meant to show also in parentheses, and did not, the growth of M1 as if there had been no ATS accounts.
[1980-01-09] So if an unreasonable interest rate comes out, I reserve the [option] to evaluate that on its own terms.
[1980-01-09] On the inflation side, curiously enough, the Board staff's forecast would be in the upper range of inflation rates of outside forecasts that I've seen for 1981.
[1980-02-05] We ought to respond less rather than more, the greater the uncertainty about the outlook.
[1980-02-05] [We can comment on] any tentative feeling that we have about the second quarter but we don't have to put the second quarter into the directive, and I think it's probably inappropriate to put the secon
[1980-02-05] And yet if we structure that penalty in the right way, in fact, we're not going to give away much in terms of sloppiness in the reserve figures.
[1980-02-05] The staff's forecast is a bit more pessimistic than our forecast, and that largely centers on two differences.
[1980-02-05] And that, by the same reasoning, translates into a surplus of $12 billion in 1981.
[1980-02-05] I'd have inflation a little higher than the staff has--at 9 to 10 percent, say, for the deflator and 10 to 12 percent for the CPI in the year ahead.
[1980-02-05] But the Bluebook says on the previous page that for the last six months M-1B growth has only been 6.1 percent, so the drop isn't as big as it might appear from the [table] on page 6.
[1980-03-18] C" is 5 percent for the first two quarters, as I have calculated it, and the midpoint [of our annual target] is 4-3/4 percent.
[1980-04-22] Therefore, it's a question of trying to minimize perceived risk.
[1980-04-22] Let's not panic and do something that will tend to negate the strides we've made.
[1980-04-22] My memory is that there is genuine weakness in the unadjusted deposits.
[1980-04-22] Some people don't believe the underlying theory, so they have no reason to believe it.
[1980-04-22] And we're obviously not going to have very many automobiles built.
[1980-05-20] So, our view is that one of the elements driving the saving rate down recently has been the surge in the relative prices of necessities; and individuals have been willing to let the savings side slip
[1980-05-20] Why don't you let individual members of the Committee call you when they think that Chuck's zone is being approached?
[1980-07-09] Basically, cooperation with them on intervention had been very good, But they have this dilemma, and they are very, very aware of it.
[1980-07-09] And I'm not arguing for changing the ranges; but I just don't want to associate any change, particularly in this case when we could argue that we have a technical reason for making the change, with pl
[1980-07-09] It calls for a decision, but I don't know that it says how it has to go in [the directive].
[1980-07-09] I assume the members of this group are aware that there is one quasi-phony component in our current account calculation.
[1980-08-12] We might end up below on M-1A and way over on M2 and be in the same situation we are now.
[1980-08-12] If M2 is moving up very rapidly, it's not given equal weight by any means.
[1980-09-16] A third might be that the economy is just so inflation jittery that after people catch their breath they rush out and try to beat the game again.
[1980-09-16] When I talk to people in the markets, they are not questioning our credibility or the steadiness of our policy at the moment.
[1980-09-16] So in the Bluebook where we have the 7-1/4 percent [growth rate], that is the target necessary to hit a particular level over the year.
[1980-09-16] We can always consult, so let's not make that part of the proposal.
[1980-10-21] I say that because the Treasury is so far in debt that there is quite a bit of absorptive capacity in the United States government for the next month or two anyway.
[1980-12-19] And we would get some of the protection that you have in mind, Chuck.
[1980-12-19] I would like a phrase in there indicating "over a period of time" or something like that so it doesn't sound as if these ranges are applied rigidly on a day-to-day basis.
[1980-12-19] We are very close to the point, which is relevant even to our short-term decision, where these numbers are going to go all over the lot presumably.
[1980-12-19] But it is important to know that the limit on how much we can buy in Deutschemarks, which is $1.5 billion, has been set by the Committee.
[1981-02-03] Under the old operating technique we could have maintained a penalty rate and we never did during these periods; and the discrepancy got extremely wide every time we had a tight money period.
[1981-02-03] But Chuck Partee yesterday made the point that getting back on track really means running below track for a while if we have been above track.
[1981-02-03] But we wouldn't have the problem of the banks being able to borrow and [raise] the reserve targets.
[1981-02-03] Each month during that autumn period all the projections said it was going to level off this month.
[1981-02-03] And, although we can't measure it, it does have some adverse effects on investment proceedings.
[1981-03-31] Maybe we should just slip in this lending issue, too, while you have the table, Mr. Sternlight.
[1981-03-31] It is extremely difficult to identify any peculiar results from intervention per se economically.
[1981-03-31] I'm a little surprised that you came out for "C." It's against that background that I ask this.
[1981-03-31] and then there might or might not be a need for another consultation.
[1981-03-31] I will tell you what my personal attitude toward setting those ranges is.
[1981-03-31] When I put it together, in terms of policy, I would not be allergic to giving a little more weight to M2 in line with one of the points that Steve made.
[1981-03-31] I think we have to be very clear in terms of what the understandings are.
[1981-05-18] I'm influenced not only by the strength of the economy--and there is a widespread feeling around the country, and certainly in the market, that with the exception of the troubled sectors the economy i
[1981-05-18] As I suggested earlier, there are some risks here, and I think we have to be prepared to take some risks.
[1981-05-18] And that's always hard, indeed impossible, to predict or to time.
[1981-05-18] That would not be very helpful in terms of our longer-run objectives.
[1981-05-18] We may have more for sale here suddenly than some people have expected.
[1981-05-18] The third point I'll make is that on John's point about office building and other kinds of activities we may have a bit of a booby-trap in this area in that most of those have been financed on constru
[1981-07-07] What Jim says is driving them is [the assumption of] a relatively small money supply expansion and [the staff forecast] has to force that on an economy with quite a lot of nominal GNP.
[1981-07-07] Yes, we will have a consultation before the testimony to confirm all of this.
[1981-10-06] So, if we went ahead with came in again, would this change your attitude about giving one to
[1981-10-06] That was exactly the [sentiment]: I'm dying, what are you doing to me?
[1981-10-06] Even if we put it at a tiny fraction of the money market funds, we would say that M-1B has been somewhat stronger than it appears in the adjusted figures.
[1981-10-06] I said the nontransactions component will rise relative to M-1B in this present environment.
[1981-11-17] And I think that is much more meaningful to an economic recovery.
[1981-11-17] I admittedly come from an area where there is a very heavy concentration of industries that have been most affected.
[1981-12-22] On the specific question--I'll comment [on my general views] later--I think there has been within the last 30 to 45 days a decided shift on the part of labor out our way.
[1981-12-22] So, what we do will have a direct bearing, at least as we look at it, rather than just psychological [effects on] decisions that businessmen might be making.
[1981-12-22] But the discrepancies in the numbers were even larger than we had.
[1981-12-22] There are all kinds of questions that can be raised about the methodology.
[1981-12-22] At least as far out as one can reasonably see, cash-type investments are probably going to continue to look pretty good.
[1981-12-22] I might comment that Japan in particular seems to be a serious problem.
[1981-12-22] So, despite all of our frustrations about what money is, how it behaves, and what should be in M1 and M2, it is still the only game in town as far as I am concerned.
[1981-12-22] The discount rate becomes a kind of anchor around which the funds rate clusters once there's enough borrowing to make that discount rate meaningful.
[1982-02-02] That is one of the reasons we thought [M1] would grow in November and December, way back when.
[1982-02-02] But we have never said anything other than that we would fight disorder.
[1982-02-02] If we came out of the clear blue sky and said we are going to change them, that is one thing.
[1982-03-30] I would not really want to give any technical advice on that particular point.