yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2022-01-01] By 2009, the forecasts for both the headline and core PCE price indexes showed inflation receding from its 2008 level, in line with the previous forecasts.
[2022-01-01] first, volatility in interest rate markets remained at historically high levels, reflecting very high uncertainty regarding inflation, as well as heightened data dependence of monetary policy.
[2022-01-01] At the same time, an acceleration in productivity also appears to have a direct disinflationary effect.
[2022-01-01] cpi inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023, and then return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.
[2022-01-01] in this context it was underlined that any conclusion on whether the conditions in the forward guidance on interest rates had been met was not predicated on the staff projections but was up to the jud
[2022-01-01] in projections conditioned on the alternative assumption of constant interest rates at 3%, activity is stronger than in the mpc’s forecast conditioned on market rates, although gdp is still expected t
[2022-01-01] at the same time, it was cautioned that while economic performance had been better than expected, the economy was not yet “out of the woods”.
[2022-01-01] the us dollar had appreciated since the start of 2022 in line with the more pronounced rise in us government bond yields compared with those in most advanced economies.
[2022-01-01] members also agreed with the proposal to continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions falling due in the pepp portfolio.
[2022-01-01] money market fund (mmf) net yields across all fund types rose notably, as increases in administered rates passed through to money market instruments.
[2022-01-01] so far there was no evidence of substantial second-round effects.
[2022-01-01] To be clear, when I say "risk premium" I mean the additional compensation required by investors for holding a risky security--that is, one with uncertain returns--above the compensation that would be
[2022-01-01] These headwinds—which include developments abroad, subdued household formation, and meager productivity growth—could persist for some time.
[2022-01-01] estimates of the neutral rate tend to be correlated across countries over time, reflecting similar global influences on saving and investment as well as spillovers across borders.
[2022-01-01] the strong pickup in pay settlements reported to the bank’s agents, and the recent broadening from goods price to services price inflation, suggested that these developments were now being reflected i
[2022-01-01] And you know, we haven’t yet—we just touched 2 percent core inflation, to pick one measure—just touched it for a few months, and then we’ve fallen back.
[2022-01-01] the increase in interest rates was expected to lead to higher financing costs for governments.
[2022-01-01] But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC partic
[2022-01-01] the bank will keep its holdings of government of canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant at least until it begins to raise the policy interest rate.
[2022-01-01] energy prices, which had increased by 31.7% in february, continued to be the dominant force behind the rise in inflation.
[2022-01-01] one-month option-implied volatility on the s&p 500 index—the vix—increased moderately, on balance, remaining elevated relative to its historical distribution and significantly above average pre-pandem
[2022-01-01] fertiliser prices had also risen sharply, which could reduce crop yields internationally if farmers respond by curtailing the use of fertiliser.
[2022-01-01] members judged that the implications of the war for the u.s. economy were highly uncertain.
[2022-01-01] What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an appar
[2022-01-01] As Chair Powell indicated in his Jackson Hole remarks, we think of our new framework as an evolution from "flexible inflation targeting" to a "flexible form of average inflation targeting.
[2022-01-01] labour demand was strong and unemployment rates were near or below pre-pandemic levels.
[2022-01-01] the main exception had been the price of gas in europe, where a decline in october had been reversed in november with the onset of colder weather.
[2022-01-01] while the market-implied path was a little higher than the maps median, the gap between these measures had narrowed since the previous maps survey, conducted in mid-october.
[2022-01-01] the war in ukraine is disrupting the global recovery, just as most economies are emerging from the impact of the omicron variant of covid-19.
[2022-01-01] the bank of canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ %, with the bank rate at ½ % and the deposit rate at ¼ %.
[2022-01-01] mr lane reviewed the global environment and the recent economic and monetary developments in the euro area.
[2022-01-01] members widely acknowledged the resilience of the labour market.
[2022-01-01] the solution to the energy problem was seen as mainly of a structural nature.
[2022-01-01] when looking at the whole projection horizon and cumulating the impact of the energy price shock on core inflation from the last quarter of 2021, ecb staff analysis showed that around 3 percentage poi
[2022-01-01] a slowdown was also visible in the pmi data, although employment indices remained on the whole above the threshold indicating growth.
[2022-01-01] Indeed, consumer expenditures appeared to have been expanding moderately over the previous few months, buoyed by increases in employment, personal income, and household wealth.
[2022-01-01] Labor markets appeared to be stabilizing as private nonfarm payrolls grew in September for the first time since January, and employment losses in July and August turned out to be smaller than data ini
[2022-01-01] it had also been communicating that this was likely to require a faster rate of wages growth than had been experienced over previous years.
[2022-01-01] with regard to pce price inflation, the staff revised up its projection for the second half of 2022 in response to stronger-than-expected wage growth and the staff's assessment that the boost to infla
[2022-01-01] moreover, some further rise in wages growth would not necessarily be cause for concern, given the flexible and medium-term nature of the inflation target, so long as inflation expectations remained we
[2022-01-01] financial conditions remain broadly accommodative but have tightened with growing expectations that monetary policy will normalize sooner than was anticipated, and with rising geopolitical tensions.
[2022-01-01] while amending the tltro iii conditions might have side effects, the abrupt and unforeseeable change in circumstances justified a change in the policy stance if this was in the service of the ecb’s pr
[2022-01-01] But—so I would just say that our—that there are many things that go in, as you know, to, to setting asset prices.
[2022-01-01] so a significant tightening of financing conditions was embedded in the projections, which reflected the ecb’s monetary policy tightening.
[2022-01-01] Indeed, financial services firms had already announced layoffs, largely reflecting mortgage market developments, the demand for temporary workers appeared to have softened, and the most recent weakeni
[2022-01-01] In these circumstances, an easing at some point of current uncertainties and strengthening confidence should induce inventory rebuilding, with positive implications, at least for a time, for the expan
[2022-01-01] it was considered noteworthy that volatility had been especially pronounced in markets that were traditionally considered low-risk, such as the money markets and the sovereign bond markets, with highe
[2022-01-01] also, the slowdown in international demand is beginning to weigh on exports.
[2022-01-01] also, surveys indicate more consumers and businesses are expecting inflation to be higher for longer, raising the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched in price- and wage-setting.
[2022-01-01] Indeed, most anticipated that inflation will slow for a time to rates somewhat lower than those they judge consistent with the dual goals of price stability and maximum employment, initially reflectin
[2022-01-01] Later in the period, AFE yields partially rebounded and foreign equity prices fully recovered on some easing of U. S. ­–China trade tensions, as well as perceptions of reduced political uncertainty in
[2022-01-01] the staff projections for inflation had been revised up, especially for the near term.
[2022-01-01] the bank expects cpi inflation to ease as higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply disruptions fade, and the past effects of higher commodity prices d
[2022-01-01] members noted that, while non-bank lending comprised a small share of system-wide credit and there had been little evidence of a decline in lending standards, it was important that lending standards r
[2022-01-01] cpi inflation in canada is 5.7%, above the bank’s forecast in its january monetary policy report (mpr).
[2022-01-01] We’re charged by Congress with trying to pursue maximum employment, and we have taken that very seriously.
[2022-01-01] Accordingly, in the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developmen
[2022-01-01] likewise, if the medium-term inflation outlook were to moderate, the pace would be slower.
[2022-01-01] As illustrated by the left-hand panel of figure 6, since 2000, both FOMC participants and respondents to the Blue Chip survey have markedly reduced their projections of the level of real short-term in
[2022-01-01] moving to a model-based analysis of risks to the inflation outlook, two alternative approaches were used in the assessment.
[2022-01-01] more recently the bilateral exchange rate had seen a more pronounced drop.
[2022-01-01] this would increase the governing council’s optionality and flexibility without implying that lift-off would automatically follow shortly after the end of net purchases.
[2022-01-01] In the absence of legislation, going appreciably further in the direction of prioritizing price stability, as would be implied by a numerical target that was expected to be achieved most of the time,
[2022-01-01] vacancy rates had stabilised over recent months in both economies, albeit at high levels, and wage growth although moderating a little, had remained strong.
[2022-01-01] In 2019, sluggish growth abroad and global developments weighed on investment, exports, and manufacturing in the United States,
[2022-01-01] But an intriguing alternative is to set a target for the price level.
[2022-01-01] retaining the existing flexibility in pepp reinvestments was seen as a prudent approach to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic, which still persisted
[2022-01-01] russia’s ongoing invasion of ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty.
[2022-01-01] in response to the discovery of omicron, stock markets worldwide had suffered marked losses.
[2022-01-01] At this point, for me, it comes down to what the incoming data and other economic information will tell us about the outlook for inflation.
[2022-01-01] job gains had been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.
[2022-01-01] Another reason for the reliance on judgment in the forecasting process is the practical requirement that the forecast for inflation be consistent with the staff's overall view of the economy, includin
[2022-01-01] the high levels of inflation had thus turned out to be less transitory than previously expected, while the latest ecb staff projections nonetheless still foresaw a rapid decline in inflation, nearly t
[2022-01-01] cpi inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above the control range throughout this year.
[2022-01-01] in the immediate run-up to the mpc’s february meeting, the market-implied path for bank rate had reached around 1.7% by mid-2023.
[2022-01-01] issuance of short-term securities was likely to increase in coming periods, and, as more clarity emerged in the economic and policy outlook, demand for short-term assets could moderate.
[2022-01-01] the lfs employment rate had been unchanged, with the inactivity rate rising slightly.
[2022-01-01] members noted the importance of banks maintaining their lending standards.
[2022-01-01] participants judged that uncertainty about economic growth over the next couple of years was elevated.
[2022-01-01] some sectors faced growing difficulties in sourcing inputs, which was disrupting production.
[2022-01-01] And then we’ll look to have that just running in the background and have—and have the interest rates, again, be the active tool of monetary policy.
[2022-01-01] this came at a time when household spending capacity was directly affected by the drop in real incomes owing to higher inflation.
[2022-01-01] with respect to a possible resurgence of fragmentation in euro area financial conditions, it was recalled that, in december, the governing council had included a general reference to flexibility in it
[2022-01-01] the bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of government of canada bonds roughly constant.
[2022-01-01] August 26, 2022 Monetary Policy and Price Stability Chair Jerome H. Powell At â€œReassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,â€ an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank
[2022-01-01] headline cpi inflation had increased to 3.5 per cent over the year to the december quarter, largely reflecting higher fuel prices, higher prices for newly constructed homes and disruptions to supply c
[2022-01-01] given elevated inflation and inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the governing council expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further.
[2022-01-01] the unemployment rate had edged back down to 3.4 per cent in october – the equal lowest rate since september 1974.
[2022-01-01] To be sure, our main tool, monetary policy, is a blunt instrument that cannot be targeted at individual industries or regions.
[2022-01-01] The price of a ton of cold rolled steel sheet, or a linear yard of cotton broad-woven fabrics, could be reasonably compared over a period of years.
[2022-01-01] looking ahead, the governing council expects interest rates will need to increase, with the timing and pace of those increases guided by the bank’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.
[2022-01-01] since may 2021, oil prices had increased by 88% in us dollar terms but by 111% in euro terms.
[2022-01-01] it was also widely felt that, at times of extraordinary statistical uncertainty around the baseline projections, the precise numbers foreseen for inflation at the end of the projection horizon mattere
[2022-01-01] the employment-to-population ratio and the participation rate were both around record highs, and measures of spare capacity in the labour market were near their lowest levels in decades.
[2022-01-01] alternative scenarios for the economic and financial impact of the war, which would be published together with the projections, foresaw that economic activity could be dampened significantly by a stee
[2022-01-01] As its name implies, this rule does not prescribe a particular level of the federal funds rate at a given time but rather how the existing rate should change from quarter to quarter based on two gaps-
[2022-01-01] To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about th
[2022-01-01] outflows from funds dedicated to emerging markets continued at a modest pace, and credit spreads in emerging market economies narrowed somewhat on net.
[2022-01-01] indicators of labour market tightness had nevertheless remained elevated.
[2022-01-01] growth in total credit in april had remained around the fastest pace of the preceding decade.
[2022-01-01] By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion.
[2022-01-01] the labor force participation rate increased in february, as did the employment-to-population ratio.
[2022-01-01] equity prices in most advanced economies had been rising since mid-october.
[2022-01-01] Implications of Increases in Productivity Growth In the long run, the implications of increases in productivity growth rates are fairly obvious.
[2022-01-01] third, there would be more public spending to support ukraine and the refugees.
[2022-01-01] labour markets are tight with a record low unemployment rate, widespread labour shortages, and increasing wage pressures.
[2022-01-01] In these circumstances, any tendency for price pressures to mount was likely to emerge only gradually and to be reversible through a relatively limited policy adjustment.
[2022-01-01] concerns about the global growth outlook weighed on equity prices, and the broad dollar edged up.
[2022-01-01] I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Ellen Zentner, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary polic
[2022-01-01] energy price movements had been mixed since the mpc’s previous meeting.
[2022-01-01] however, more recently, expectations of future credit quality for businesses deteriorated slightly, and delinquency rates rose for some types of credit owed by households with low credit scores.
[2022-01-01] with the economy clearly in excess demand, inflation high and broadening, and more businesses and consumers expecting high inflation to persist for longer, the governing council decided to front-load
[2022-01-01] second, there was a need to signal that any adjustments to the key ecb interest rates would take place ”some time after the end of the governing council’s net purchases under the app”.
[2022-01-01] as a result of the increase in home loan interest rates that had already occurred over the year, housing mortgage payments were set to rise further in the period ahead.
[2022-01-01] at the same time, while the difficulty of relying on precise values of these rates was acknowledged, there was agreement that, looking ahead, the governing council needed to continue removing accommod
[2022-01-01] risks to the inflation outlook were on the upside and had intensified, especially for the short term.
[2022-01-01] finally, the arguments for no change in the cash rate placed further emphasis on the lagged effects of the large policy adjustment to date, and the value in proceeding cautiously in an uncertain envir
[2022-01-01] At these low rates, the central bank is poorly positioned to respond to further negative demand shocks.
[2022-01-01] staff review of the economic situation the information available at the time of the march 15–16 meeting suggested that u.s. real gross domestic product (gdp) was increasing in the first quarter at a p
[2022-01-01] so this survey was closely aligned with the view that inflation would come down to close to target in 2024 and stay there.
[2022-01-01] a few of these participants noted that this possibility was heightened by factors beyond the committee's actions, including the tightening of monetary policy stances abroad and the weakening global ec
[2022-01-01] they noted that the surge in prices of oil and other commodities associated with russia's invasion of ukraine was boosting gasoline and food prices and putting additional upward pressure on inflation.
[2022-01-01] At the moment, trend growth near full employment appears to be a reasonable prospect in the year ahead.
[2022-01-01] on the one hand, it was argued that the experience gained in the 1970s, when different inflation outcomes across jurisdictions could be traced back to different central bank reaction functions, sugges
[2022-01-01] the governing council continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further, and the pace of increases will be guided by the bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and inflation.
[2022-01-01] more broadly, information from the bank's liaison program indicated that upstream price pressures were being passed on by firms, as global and domestic supply chain pressures had persisted and demand
[2022-01-01] longer term government bond yields had declined in most economies over the prior month, driven by the decline in longer term policy rate expectations amid signs that inflation may have peaked and the
[2022-01-01] however, more recently the focus of investors had gradually shifted back towards a tighter monetary policy stance as inflation outcomes had continued to be higher than expected.
[2022-01-01] And what it is is, it’s an expression of the thinking about individual Committee members about appropriate monetary policy and the path of the economy.
[2022-01-01] As U.S. business investment has recently begun a cyclical recovery while residential investment has remained strong, the domestic saving shortfall has continued to widen, implying a rise in the curren
[2022-01-01] this reflects the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices, particularly for energy, which have been pushed up by russia’
[2022-01-01] in contrast to oil prices, gas prices had declined by 33% since the december 2021 governing council meeting.
[2022-01-01] limited spare capacity and gas-to-oil substitution in europe and elsewhere were likely to support crude oil prices in the period ahead.
[2022-01-01] the domestic economy had grown strongly over the first half of 2022, showing resilience to disruptions caused by the omicron outbreak and the floods on the east coast.
[2022-01-01] these are the minutes of the monetary policy committee meeting ending on 4 may the bank of england act 1998 gives the bank of england operational responsibility for setting monetary policy to meet the
[2022-01-01] In these circumstances, domestic demand would need to decelerate considerably for growth to proceed at a sustainable pace.
[2022-01-01] In these circumstances, a pause seemed desirable to monitor the still-incomplete effects of the Committee's easing over the past year--a significant part of which had been implemented in recent months
[2022-01-01] job vacancies are elevated, hiring intentions are strong, and wage gains are picking up.
[2022-01-01] with the tendency of the projections to strongly converge to target in the last year of the horizon, the projection for that year was seen as having limited information content.
[2022-01-01] while such volatility was not surprising at turning points in monetary policy, its magnitude had been amplified by the combination of shocks hitting the world economy: the war in ukraine, the energy t
[2022-01-01] participants observed that, as the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumul
[2022-01-01] the australian government budget included additional transfer payments, including to low-income households, to help address cost-of-living pressures.
[2022-01-01] given the current projections and the high degree of uncertainty, a larger, pre-emptive initial increment ran the risk of triggering excessive adjustments in market interest rates.
[2022-01-01] this caution would help avoid derailing a strong labour market, which had been a source of income stability in europe throughout the pandemic.
[2022-01-01] employment and hours worked had been increasing in the third quarter but remained below pre-crisis levels, with some variation across countries.
[2022-01-01] survey indicators suggested a moderation in non-construction investment in the second half of the year.