yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1995-07-06] Another related and important issue has to do with public support for any objective that we adopt, whether it is mandated by statute or we do it ourselves.
[1995-08-22] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-08-22: target=+4.70 bp, path=+9.00 bp
[1995-09-26] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-09-26: target=+5.50 bp, path=+9.70 bp
[1995-09-26] One of the major positives of the bill is the clear focus on price stability and the purchasing power of our currency.
[1995-09-26] But it is true that we don't know what the fiscal policy is going to be.
[1995-09-26] Mr. Chairman, we currently seem to have the luxury of a great deal of flexibility because the goals established for the Committee are ambiguous and in some cases contradictory.
[1995-11-15] But over limited periods of time, this relationship clearly has varied tremendously, and there isn't a very compelling short-run macro story that pushes you toward equilibrating these things or having
[1995-11-15] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-11-15: target=+3.90 bp, path=+3.60 bp
[1995-11-15] I believe it maintains a stance of policy that is somewhat restrictive.
[1995-12-19] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-12-19: target=-6.50 bp, path=+4.80 bp
[1996-01-01] Expectations of price increases over the near-term--specifically, over the next year--have, in fact, risen noticeably on the heels of the actual increase in inflation.
[1996-01-01] Nonetheless, with rising productivity and moderate wage gains likely continuing to help hold down unit labor costs, the outlook for subdued inflation remained promising, especially for the nearer term
[1996-01-01] In the circumstances, most members endorsed a proposal to delete as no longer necessary the previous summary statement relating to the risks to growth and inflation taken together.
[1996-01-01] some important measures of price inflation, after adjustment to exclude their volatile food and energy components, had shown a flat or even a declining trend in recent quarters.
[1996-01-01] Flexible inflation averaging would bring some of the benefits of a formal average-inflation-targeting rule, but it could be more robust and simpler to communicate and implement.
[1996-01-01] in the committee's discussion of possible intermeeting adjustments to policy, all the members indicated at least some preference for retaining a symmetric directive.
[1996-01-01] Private nonfarm payroll employment increased appreciably on balance over September and October.
[1996-01-01] excluding food and energy items, consumer prices were up modestly over the november- december period and for all of 1995 advanced slightly more than in 1994.
[1996-01-01] However, a few other participants pointed to the record of inflation consistently running below the Committee's 2 percent objective over recent years and expressed the concern that longer-run inflatio
[1996-01-01] In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consider- ation to economic, financial, and monetary developments, a somew
[1996-01-01] this development appeared to reflect worker concerns about job security in a period of major business restructuring and downsizing activities as well as substantially reduced increases in benefit cost
[1996-01-01] Private investors would have to hold more longer-term securities as the Federal Reserve's holdings ran off, making longer-term interest rates somewhat higher than they would be otherwise.
[1996-01-01] Experienced loan officers who are well acquainted with their markets can channel funds into the loans that are most likely to create wealth and growth in the local economy.
[1996-01-01] However, a couple of participants noted that the recent oil price decline could also be associated with increasing oil supply rather than softening global demand.
[1996-01-01] growth of m2 picked up in november, while expansion of m3 moderated somewhat from its brisk pace in october.
[1996-01-01] in furtherance of these objectives, the committee at its meeting in july reaffirmed the ranges it had established in january for growth of m2 and m3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively,
[1996-01-01] september sales totals were boosted by strong spending at automotive dealers, food stores, and nondurable goods outlets.
[1996-01-01] indeed, some price measures suggested that inflation had trended lower through the second quarter.
[1996-01-01] Eventually, financial markets may develop the instruments and associated analytical techniques for unearthing these implicit changes in the price level with some precision.
[1996-01-01] members noted that one broad measure of wages had picked up and that there was a small rise in the number of anecdotal reports indicating that labor shortages were contributing to higher wages in some
[1996-01-01] In the residential real estate sector, home sales, prices, and construction had shown signs of stabilization in many areas and were increasing modestly in others, but a still-sizable inventory of unso
[1996-01-01] Consistent with the Committee's decision to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, the Board of Governors voted unanimously to leave the interest rates on required and excess res
[1996-01-01] Nonetheless, with the unemployment rate anticipated to increase somewhat during the remainder of 2009 and to decline only gradually in 2010, the staff still expected core PCE inflation to slow substan
[1996-01-01] In the course of the Committee's discussion of the outlook for inflation, members commented that there was no persuasive evidence in recent statistical measures that price inflation was currently pick
[1996-01-01] inflation was projected to pick up gradually in association with a partial reversal of the decline in energy prices this year.
[1996-01-01] Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed,
[1996-01-01] among the major components, shipments of both computing and communications equipment fell sharply in april and retraced only part of that decline in may.
[1996-01-01] They noted that economic activity and employment had continued to recover
[1996-01-01] Housing demand remained strong, but business fixed investment was still in the doldrums and consumer spending had flagged in late summer before apparently picking up somewhat in the autumn.
[1996-01-01] Even with the improving labor market, I still hear from businesses that qualified workers are difficult to find, and labor shortages remain a drag on hiring and on economic growth.
[1996-01-01] accordingly, much stronger growth in such investment could occur, with concomitant effects on incomes and the growth of overall spending.
[1996-01-01] Nonetheless, with fiscal policy assumed to be tighter next year than this year, the staff anticipated that real GDP growth would not materially exceed increases in potential output in 2013.
[1996-01-01] In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a pace a little above that of its longer-run potential over this year and next, while hiring was expected t
[1996-01-01] A few participants also noted that uncertainty about the extent of resource slack in the economy was considerable and that it was quite possible that the economy could soon be operating close to poten
[1996-01-01] rates moved lower immediately after the policy easing action, and most fell still more on balance over the remainder of the intermeeting interval in response to incoming information about the economy
[1996-01-01] Nonetheless, the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were viewed as tilted a little to the downside, especially because the economy was not well positioned to withstand adverse shocks while the
[1996-01-01] A few participants commented that both survey- and market-based measures of short-term inflation expectations were at historically high levels.
[1996-01-01] In the view of one member, however, aggregate final demand was so strong that, with economic activity and the associated demand for labor having expanded at an unsustainable pace for some time, one co
[1996-01-01] in part, worker willingness to accept compara- tively limited increases in compensation could be attributed to the apparent rise in insecurity about the permanence of jobs or the availability of alter
[1996-01-01] They noted that the economy had entered the new year with considerable momentum and very few indications that growth was moderating from what appeared to be an unsustainable rate.
[1996-01-01] Price inflation had picked up a little but, abstracting from energy, had remained relatively subdued.
[1996-01-01] In the view of a number of members, rapid growth of the monetary aggregates, though it had slowed very recently, was a further indication that financial conditions were not restraining economic activi
[1996-01-01] In the staff forecast prepared for this meeting, the economy was seen as likely to expand at a moderate pace, supported by accommodative monetary policy and financial conditions.
[1996-01-01] They noted that the realization of such a development could make it harder for the Committee to achieve 2 percent inflation over the longer run.
[1996-01-01] with sales and profits projected to grow more slowly, and with utilization of existing capacity having eased considerably, business investment in new equipment and structures was expected to expand at
[1996-01-01] Housing starts and the demand for new homes had declined further, house prices in many parts of the country were falling faster than they had towards the end of 2007, and inventories of unsold homes r
[1996-01-01] the outlook remained subject, as usual, to considerable uncertainty, but many of the members observed that underlying trends in key sectors of the economy along with generally supportive financial con
[1996-01-01] Fiscal policy, on the other hand, can be an instrument of growth policy, through its effect on national saving via the structural budget deficit, through incentive effects on work, saving and investme
[1996-01-01] in these circumstances, the members recognized the need to monitor with special care price movements in the stock market and asset markets more generally for their implications for consumer and other
[1996-01-01] A few participants argued that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy over the medium run would erode the stability of inflation expectations.
[1996-01-01] the external sector was projected to exert a small restraining influence on economic activity over the projection period, even though an anticipated firming of economic activity abroad would bolster d
[1996-01-01] according to the staff projection, growth in the debt measure would be near the midpoint of the existing range over the period through 1997.
[1996-01-01] Consistent with the view that recent lower inflation readings could be temporary, a number of participants mentioned the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation, produced by the Federal Reserve Ba
[1996-01-01] A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the init
[1996-01-01] Consistent with the optimism driving stock prices, spreads of corporate bond yields over comparable-maturity Treasury yields narrowed markedly across the credit spectrum, most notably for debt securit
[1996-01-01] A few observed that the combination of recent labor market improvements and continued softness in inflation had led them to lower their estimates of the longer-run normal rate of unemployment.
[1996-01-01] Following the GFC, it took more than eight years for employment and inflation to return to similar mandate-consistent levels.
[1996-01-01] Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability.
[1996-01-01] Flexible inflation averaging could bring some of the benefits of a formal average inflation targeting rule, but it would be simpler to communicate.
[1996-01-01] Nonetheless, those restraining influences were expected to abate over time and economic activity strengthen gradually.
[1996-01-01] somewhat larger increases would have been projected in consumer price inflation in the absence of anticipated technical measurement changes to the index.
[1996-01-01] housing activity was well sustained in april, with the run-up in mortgage rates that began in february having had little perceptible effect to date.
[1996-01-01] How long the favorable factors that continued to stimulate substantial growth in consumer expenditures would persist was uncertain, notably with regard to the outlook for stock market prices and their
[1996-01-01] they observed that the decision was a close one for them, and in light of the uncertainties that were involved, they were willing to join the majority and wait for further evidence bearing on the outl
[1996-01-01] given the outlook for slower growth in final demand, many businesses would not have to add significantly to capacity.
[1996-01-01] remained well below their levels at the beginning of the year, and that weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices had been holding down consumer price inflation.
[1996-01-01] Pressures on resources would rise as the anticipated upturn and possible above-trend growth brought the economy closer to full capacity utilization.
[1996-01-01] moreover, slow growth left the recovery more vulnerable to negative shocks.
[1996-01-01] some members also noted that any adjustment of these ranges to align them more fully with projections of money growth consistent with the committee's expectations for expansion of the economy and pric
[1996-01-01] They generally judged that risks to the growth outlook, including strains in global financial markets, were significant and tilted to the downside
[1996-01-01] Conditions in the commercial paper (CP) market improved over the intermeeting period, likely reflecting recent measures taken in support of this market, greater demand from institutional investors, an
[1996-01-01] In the context of this discussion, many participants commented that their view of potential output growth was somewhat more optimistic than that of the staff.
[1996-01-01] Fischer, Sahay, and Vegh (2002) present evidence of a strong correlation between fiscal deficits and money creation in high-inflation economies.
[1996-01-31] With the inflation outlook as good as it is for the near and intermediate terms, all of this leaves us with room to move, and I support your recommendation as an insurance policy.
[1996-01-31] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-01-31: target=-0.20 bp, path=-2.40 bp
[1996-01-31] There may be an opportunity here, were we to do nothing, to do a bit better on inflation.
[1996-03-26] Moreover, all seven states in the District added jobs at a fairly robust pace in January.
[1996-03-26] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-03-26: target=+1.60 bp, path=+4.00 bp
[1996-03-26] Retail sales along the border area have improved a little lately.
[1996-05-21] Does a price stability goal mean holding the line where we are and taking advantage of opportunities to get inflation lower, or does it mean some forward-looking policy to drive inflation down with al
[1996-05-21] On balance, I prefer symmetry mainly because I can't imagine that you, Mr. Chairman, would make a decision to move toward tightening in this particular environment without a consultation with the Comm
[1996-05-21] Whereas, a couple of months ago, we saw the risks that herds would be cut back, the anecdotal evidence suggests that this process is now under way.
[1996-05-21] One of the pleasures of my job is that I get to discuss goals with all 12 Reserve Banks.
[1996-05-21] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-05-21: target=+2.70 bp, path=+3.80 bp
[1996-07-03] A decisive move like this would tend to reduce uncertainty in financial markets and elsewhere about the ultimate extent of the tightening we might be contemplating.
[1996-07-03] On the other hand, our not having that tool available to us is a product of the fact that in the 1970s, whenever it was, nobody thought we would need it, so we did not get it.
[1996-07-03] But focusing on GDP, you are still going to be addressing the question of an external oil shock.
[1996-07-03] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-07-03: target=-3.00 bp, path=+5.30 bp
[1996-07-03] If we saw a rise in inventory accumulation, to use your example, that suggested a sustained, above-trend rate of economic growth, we would move right away.
[1996-07-03] Like Governor Meyer, I am uncomfortable with the current ranges, but I do not want to use them as a monetary policy signal.
[1996-07-03] I think the Committee could give certain guidelines for the Desk and the Chairman to follow.
[1996-07-03] We viewed that as a long time, and we certainly did not want to go beyond a year.
[1996-08-20] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-08-20: target=+0.80 bp, path=+5.20 bp
[1996-08-20] This position reflects my willingness to support trend growth at full employment with stable modest inflation in the near term, patiently awaiting opportunity down the road for renewed progress toward
[1996-08-20] I would just note that in this auto industry situation there also are peculiarities that people will be focusing on in terms of whether the union is able effectively to set a pattern after they have n
[1996-09-24] We continue to hear increased anecdotes about tight labor markets and rising pressure on wages, and we hear more rumblings that the higher labor costs will have to be passed on in higher prices at som
[1996-09-24] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-09-24: target=-10.60 bp, path=+0.40 bp
[1996-09-24] Our previous forecast plainly suggested the need for such a slowdown.
[1996-11-13] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-11-13: target=+1.60 bp, path=-2.40 bp
[1996-11-13] While we do not see clear evidence that by historical standards people are unusually uncertain at this point about job prospects, there remains some general sense that all is not well and that jobs ar
[1996-11-13] Given that we feel that GDP growth may have been underestimated, it is not inconceivable that a part of those revenues could be in consumption expenditures.
[1996-11-13] In the context of the Committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developments, somewhat
[1996-11-13] What I mean is that retailers are prone to complain and in fact do complain almost no matter how good things are.
[1996-12-17] GSS factor decomposition for 1996-12-17: target=+3.10 bp, path=-1.00 bp
[1997-01-01] But that forecast for growth and uncertainty about the resolution of supply constraints mean that there are upside risks to inflation next year.
[1997-01-01] Case studies of individual industries show that, in some cases, the planning for technological modernization has not always been adequate, with the result that some purchases of high-tech equipment an
[1997-01-01] Economic DevelopmentsReal economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.
[1997-01-01] Two changes have particular relevance for the employment leg of the dual mandate.15 The new framework calls for monetary policy to seek to eliminate shortfalls of employment from its maximum level, in
[1997-01-01] a4 retail m4 went up by 0.4% in august, and its twelve-month growth rate fell to 7.0%.
[1997-01-01] even so, favorable prospects for employment and incomes and the large gains that had occurred in financial wealth suggested that consumer expenditures were likely to be well maintained over the projec
[1997-01-01] Against this background, the risks in the outlook for prices also seemed to be tilted toward somewhat higher inflation.
[1997-01-01] All members agreed that the FOMC statement for this meeting should again indicate that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that was likely to be measured but that the Committee would respo
[1997-01-01] All members agreed that the risks to achieving the anticipated reduction in inflation remained of greatest concern.
[1997-01-01] althoughgross mortgage lending by banks and building societies had increased quite sharply over the last couple ofyears, the recent acceleration in net mortgage lending (to a twelve- month increase of
[1997-01-01] Our test for this step was making "substantial further progress" toward our employment and inflation goals.
[1997-01-01] after growing at a considerably faster rate in the fourth quarter, m2 and m3 apparently increased at a more moderate but still brisk pace in january.
[1997-01-01] In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members commented that the statistical and anecdotal information that had become available since the October meeting con
[1997-01-01] The several extensions of emergency unemployment insurance benefits appeared to have raised the measured unemployment rate, relative to levels recorded in past downturns, by encouraging some who have
[1997-01-01] Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections
[1997-01-01] All members agreed that the statement to be released after the meeting should convey that inflation risks remained dominant and that consequently keeping policy unchanged at this meeting did not neces
[1997-01-01] Treasury yields rose sharply on its release as market participants traced out the report's presumed implications for monetary policy.
[1997-01-01] A commonly used analogy takes the U.S. economy to be an automobile, the FOMC to be the driver, and monetary policy actions to be taps on the accelerator or brake.
[1997-01-01] For example, the Stock-Watson indicator and other indicators based on interest rates and spreads signaled the 1990-91 recession very weakly and rather late.
[1997-01-01] moreover, there had been a significant increase in construction earnings.
[1997-01-01] while retail sales had slowed recently, the latest surveys indicated that consumer sentiment had risen further from an already markedly high level.
[1997-01-01] it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on wednesday, november 12, 1997.
[1997-01-01] Participants pointed to potential interactions between financial stresses and the housing market contraction as the primary source of continuing downside risks to growth.
[1997-01-01] In several Districts, reports from business contacts or evidence from surveys pointed to some difficulty in finding qualified workers; in some cases, labor shortages were making it hard to fill custom
[1997-01-01] The high oil prices would themselves cut into demand growth and tend to stabilize the system.
[1997-01-01] More recent data are not available, but I suspect that trend has continued since 1992 as the strong performance of the economy, coupled with generally ample availability of credit, has created an envi
[1997-01-01] the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection.
[1997-01-01] For example, in the mid-1970s, just when the FOMC began to specify money growth targets, econometric estimates of M1 money demand relationships began to break down, predicting faster money growth than
[1997-01-01] Participants observed that both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remained near 2 percent on a 12-month basis.
[1997-01-01] Estimates by the staff of the Federal Reserve indicate that about 40 percent of the growth in outstanding home mortgage debt during the past five years originated as financing the extraction of home e
[1997-01-01] in june, the pace of inventory investment in manufacturing slowed from the rapid average rate for april and may, and the inventory-shipments ratio for the sector was at a very low level.
[1997-01-01] For example, monetary policy makers might attempt to influence market expectations of future short rates as an alternative to changing the current setting of the overnight rate.