yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2018-01-01] Although the required amount of cumulative tightening may have increased, members noted that an accelerated pace of policy tightening did not appear necessary at this time, as a degree of economic sla
[2018-01-01] In contrast, businesses cut production and employment substantially in recent months--likely reflecting, in part, inventory overhangs that persisted into the early part of the year--and fixed investme
[2018-01-01] in china, growth in economic activity had slowed in a number of sectors.
[2018-01-01] however, a remark was made that, in the absence of persistent positive contributions to price developments from food and energy components in the future, underlying inflation would need to be higher t
[2018-01-01] Inflation, in fact, is under control, and starting to come down.
[2018-01-01] the government would thoroughly fulfill its role specified in the joint statement, such as promoting measures to strengthen the competitiveness and growth potential of the economy and those aimed at e
[2018-01-01] participants also discussed the possible implications of a flattening in the term structure of market interest rates.
[2018-01-01] survey data indicate that much of australian household debt is owed by higher-income and middle-aged people, who tend to have more stable employment and often larger savings buffers.
[2018-01-01] global commodity prices are higher, although the benefits to canada are being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world and canadian oil prices.
[2018-01-01] the bank anticipates that canadian exports will strengthen as foreign demand increases, but not sufficiently to recover the ground lost during recent quarters.
[2018-01-01] the bank’s outlook takes into account a small benefit to canada’s economy from stronger us demand arising from recent tax changes.
[2018-01-01] in this context, it was stressed that the strengthening of economic and monetary union remained a priority.
[2018-01-01] in the light of the confirmation of the medium-term inflation outlook, members agreed that the june 2018 monetary policy decisions remained appropriate and called for a reaffirmation of the prevailing
[2018-01-01] the bank expects the global economy to grow by about 3 ¾ per cent in 2018 and 3 ½ per cent in 2019, in line with the april monetary policy report (mpr).
[2018-01-01] members noted the strong global competition to supply the chinese market and that australia does not have the same natural comparative advantage in other exports as it has in some resources.
[2018-01-01] nominal business expenditures for nonresidential structures outside of the drilling and mining sector declined in july, and the number of crude oil and natural gas rigs in operation--an indicator of b
[2018-01-01] with regard to the medium-term outlook for monetary policy, all participants saw some further firming of the stance of monetary policy as likely to be warranted.
[2018-01-01] overall, however, it was important to highlight that the conditions remained in place for inflation to move sustainably towards the governing council’s medium-term inflation aim.
[2018-01-01] recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity.
[2018-01-01] In contrast, Spanish economic activity stagnated in the third quarter, Greek GDP extended its decline, and more-recent indicators point to continued weakness in peripheral European economies.
[2018-01-01] one of these members, however, said that wage growth had not accelerated as much as expected, compared to the high level of corporate profits.
[2018-01-01] consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12‑month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (pce), remained near 2 percent in june.
[2018-01-01] at the same time, while risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remained broadly balanced, it was acknowledged that risks related to global factors, including the threat of increased protection
[2018-01-01] as reasons for this, some members expressed the opinion that this might have been affected partly by the view that the u.s. economy was likely to remain firm and by the stable yield differential betwe
[2018-01-01] moreover, both central banks had maintained negative policy rates.
[2018-01-01] the gdp release had also contained the first estimate of the q2 expenditure components, although the ons’s new publication schedule for gdp data meant that a slightly smaller proportion of measured ex
[2018-01-01] In contrast, the dollar appreciated against the AFE currencies, reflecting continued divergence in monetary policy expectations for the United States and AFEs as well as political uncertainty in Europ
[2018-01-01] in this context, inflation is close to 2 per cent and core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with diminishing slack in the economy.
[2018-01-01] the risks surrounding the outlook for activity were assessed to have remained broadly balanced, with upside risks in the near term.
[2018-01-01] demand had been strong from both domestic and international buyers.
[2018-01-01] however, the turbulence in equity markets had not generated a more general sell-off of other risk assets.
[2018-01-01] Available information suggested that economic activity in the major foreign industrial countries continued to advance, but at an uneven pace; in Germany, activity rebounded from the contraction in the
[2018-01-01] the credit quality of nonfinancial corporations was stable over the intermeeting period, and the ratio of aggregate debt to assets remained near multidecade highs.
[2018-01-01] the bank will continue to assess labour market data for signs of remaining slack.
[2018-01-01] the economy is projected to operate slightly above its potential over the next three years, with real gdp growth of about 2 per cent in both 2018 and 2019, and 1.8 per cent in 2020.
[2018-01-01] export growth is being increasingly limited by capacity constraints in some sectors.
[2018-01-01] downward bias in early estimates of gdp growth had, historically, been particularly marked in q1s; quarters affected by heavy snowfall had, in the past, been subject to above-average upward revisions;
[2018-01-01] deposit rates had declined somewhat over the course of 2017, as banks' demand for deposit funding had eased once they had adjusted their balance sheets to comply with the net stable funding ratio (nsf
[2018-01-01] with regard to the implementation of the app, members welcomed findings indicating the effectiveness of the corporate sector purchase programme (cspp) in easing market financing conditions and, hence,
[2018-01-01] In contrast, some other participants judged that the economy had not yet reached maximum employment.
[2018-01-01] An unexpectedly sharp increase in wages or inflation could tell you that you’re reaching those points.
[2018-01-01] in addition, the bank decided to make the following adjustments in accordance with the measures described above.
[2018-01-01] some upward pressures on overnight rates were evident in the repurchase agreement (repo) market, apparently from higher issuance of treasury bills and an associated expansion of primary dealer invento
[2018-01-01] It is not a Taylor rule but it has the same feature that it relates policy to observables in the economy, such as unemployment and inflation.
[2018-01-01] the unemployment rate had been broadly steady at around 5½ per cent since mid 2017, suggesting that spare capacity remained in the labour market.
[2018-01-01] the point was made that consideration should be given to the quality of public expenditure and to its impact on potential output.
[2018-01-01] these points included that the characterization of the stance of policy as accommodative had provided useful forward guidance in the early stages of the policy normalization process, that this charact
[2018-01-01] regarding fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2020, they concurred that the pace of increase in private consumption was projected to be moderate, mainly because it was likely to temporarily turn to a decline due t
[2018-01-01] Several members noted the benefits of accumulating further information that could help clarify the contours of the outlook for economic activity and inflation as well as the need for further policy ac
[2018-01-01] while the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential a
[2018-01-01] members observed that business investment had been stronger than forecast a year earlier.
[2018-01-01] many members expressed the view that the upward pressure on prices stemming from the rise in firms' costs had continued to increase, partly due to a continued clear uptrend in hourly scheduled cash ea
[2018-01-01] this stronger profile for gdp incorporates new provincial and federal fiscal measures announced since january.
[2018-01-01] wages have continued to pick up as expected, even after factoring out recent minimum wage increases in ontario and alberta.
[2018-01-01] Although the pace of job losses was moderating, the unusually large fraction of those who were working part time for economic reasons and the unusually low level of the average workweek pointed to onl
[2018-01-01] export volumes looked to have recovered somewhat in early 2018, after declining in the december quarter.
[2018-01-01] a few participants warned against inferring too much from comparisons of the current low level of the unemployment rate with historical benchmarks, arguing that the much higher levels of education of
[2018-01-01] recent developments in commodity prices suggested that the terms of trade for australia had been little changed in the march quarter.
[2018-01-01] drought conditions in some parts of australia were expected to result in lower overall rural production and exports in the period following the june quarter, although members noted that a record crop
[2018-01-01] equity market volatility had increased from the very low levels of 2017, in part reflecting concerns over the direction of international trade policy in the united states.
[2018-01-01] In contrast to price inflation, labor costs appeared to have remained quiescent.
[2018-01-01] household spending is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace, underpinned by solid employment income growth.
[2018-01-01] this effect is now judged to be larger, given mounting trade tensions.
[2018-01-01] accordingly, it was necessary to reiterate that significant monetary policy stimulus was still needed for a continued and durable convergence of inflation.
[2018-01-01] members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy by noting that domestic demand had grown by around 3 per cent over the year to the december quarter.
[2018-01-01] in particular, it needed to be stressed that the underlying strength of the euro area economy, supported by high levels of capacity utilisation and a progressive tightening of labour markets, with the
[2018-01-01] the projections for business investment and exports have been revised up, reflecting the usmca and the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in british columbia.
[2018-01-01] with respect to overseas financial markets, stock prices in many economies had declined, including those in the united states, which had been considered to be overvalued to some extent.
[2018-01-01] as progress in lowering unemployment and having inflation return to the midpoint of the target was expected to be only gradual, members also agreed that there was not a strong case for a near-term adj
[2018-01-01] at the same time, it was remarked that recent movements in the euro exchange rate seemed to relate more to relative monetary policy shocks, including communication, and less to improvements in the mac
[2018-01-01] (1) on january 22, 2018, the government submitted the budget for fiscal 2018 and the supplementary budget for fiscal 2017 to the diet.
[2018-01-01] inflation in canada is close to 2 per cent as temporary factors that have been weighing on inflation have largely dissipated, as expected.
[2018-01-01] members shared the recognition that factors such as u.s. economic policies, negotiations on the united kingdom's exit from the european union (eu), and geopolitical risks continued to be regarded as r
[2018-01-01] some progress has been made on the key issues being watched closely by governing council, particularly the dynamics of inflation and wage growth.
[2018-01-01] at the same time, some caution was voiced, as the more recent developments in the euro exchange rate and in financial conditions in part reflected changing perceptions about monetary and fiscal polici
[2018-01-01] the us economy is proving stronger than expected, reinforcing market expectations of higher policy rates and pushing up the us dollar.
[2018-01-01] another area of uncertainty was the outlook for fiscal and trade policies.
[2018-01-01] this entailed the expectation that policy rates would remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure that the evolution of inflat
[2018-01-01] The deceleration seemed to reflect primarily an unwinding of heightened demand for the relative safety and liquidity of money market mutual funds that had boosted M2 in prior months.
[2018-01-01] however, as uncertainty about the future of nafta is weighing increasingly on the outlook, the bank has incorporated into its projection additional negative judgement on business investment and trade.
[2018-01-01] the new us-mexico-canada agreement (usmca) will reduce trade policy uncertainty in north america, which has been an important curb on business confidence and investment.
[2018-01-01] part of the exchange rate appreciation could be related to more positive sentiment towards the euro area, resulting from improvements in the euro area economy.
[2018-01-01] mr. g. kataoka expressed the following opinions: (1) the possibility of the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi increasing toward 2 percent going forward was low at this point, and (2) further coor
[2018-01-01] members observed that growth in china had been stronger than expected over 2017, but that investment growth had slowed and conditions in the industrial sector had softened over recent months, partly b
[2018-01-01] And I can only say qualitatively that the Committee will continue to look at the evolution of the outlook, try to assess whether unemployment is making sufficient progress towards our objectives, and,
[2018-01-01] on this basis, they shared the recognition that, although these risks were judged as not significant at this point, mainly because financial institutions had sufficient capital bases, it was necessary
[2018-01-01] the forecasts for the australian economy were largely unchanged.
[2018-01-01] cpi inflation dropped to 2.2 per cent in september, in large part because the summer spike in airfares was reversed.
[2018-01-01] in this context, governing council will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.
[2018-01-01] the authorities had announced a target for output growth in 2018 of around 6½ per cent, which was lower than the published rate of growth for 2017 of 6.9 per cent.
[2018-01-01] members noted that global growth could continue to surprise on the upside, given the synchronised nature of the current upturn.
[2018-01-01] Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contrib
[2018-01-01] But again, our basic forecast is one which is basically, as was pointed out earlier by Mr. Hilsenrath, a moderately optimistic forecast, where growth picks up as we pass through this period of fiscal
[2018-01-01] in addition, we will pay close attention to global trade policy developments and their implications for the inflation outlook.
[2018-01-01] business investment is growing in response to solid demand growth and capacity pressures, although trade tensions are weighing on investment in some sectors.
[2018-01-01] in particular, there are signs of increasing momentum in the us economy, which will be boosted further by recent tax changes.
[2018-01-01] participants commented on how the committee's communications in its postmeeting statement might need to be revised in coming meetings if the economy evolved broadly as expected.
[2018-01-01] Setting the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances 15 basis points below the top of the target range for the federal funds rate was intended to foster trading in the federal funds
[2018-01-01] as regards developments in inflation expectations, members noted that longer-term market and survey-based measures appeared to be reasonably well anchored.
[2018-01-01] one member expressed the view that various leading indicators of business fixed investment suggested that it would likely continue to increase firmly for the time being, including olympic games-relate
[2018-01-01] a few participants commented that recent news on inflation, against a background of continued prospects for a solid pace of economic growth, supported the view that inflation on a 12-month basis would
[2018-01-01] members discussed the draft of the bank's view in the october 2018 outlook report (consisting of the bank's view and the background) and formed a majority view.
[2018-01-01] tighter credit standards and apra's supervisory measures had been helpful in containing the build-up of risk on household balance sheets.
[2018-01-01] in particular, inflation was projected to move along the trajectory already contained in the june 2018 eurosystem staff projections and could be assessed as broadly in line with the ecb’s medium-term
[2018-01-01] the nikkei 225 stock average had been showing large fluctuations, partly due to a decline in u.s. stock prices and uncertainties over the u.s.-china trade friction, and was moving at around 21,000 yen
[2018-01-01] In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year.
[2018-01-01] in the united states, fiscal stimulus was expected to support growth in output over the period ahead and was likely to add to inflationary pressures as the us economy encountered capacity constraints.
[2018-01-01] on this basis, the member pointed out that, when conducting yield curve control, it was important to consider in a flexible manner such factors as the range of yield movement and the target maturity o
[2018-01-01] But it could be that if interest rates rise quickly, for example, that we would be in a situation of not giving remittances to the Treasury for a couple of years, and that would create problems, no do
[2018-01-01] members noted that food and energy make up a relatively large share of chinese households' consumption and that recent disease- and weather-related supply problems are likely to result in further incr
[2018-01-01] participants generally expected that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be consistent with a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market c
[2018-01-01] consumer price inflation, as measured by the 12-month percentage change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (pce), remained below 2 percent in december.
[2018-01-01] regarding the staff's proposal on forward guidance, many members expressed the recognition that it was appropriate from the viewpoint of strengthening the bank's commitment to achieving the price stab
[2018-01-01] the overall cost of financing for euro area firms had remained very favourable by historical standards.
[2018-01-01] at the same time, the steady absorption of economic slack gave grounds for increased confidence that price pressures would gradually take hold.
[2018-01-01] So far this year, payroll employment had expanded at a faster pace than last year and the unemployment rate had declined further, although it remained elevated.
[2018-01-01] with regard to the monetary policy stance, members widely shared the assessment provided by mr praet in his introduction that the latest data and information, including the new eurosystem staff projec
[2018-01-01] the global economy is on a modestly stronger track than forecast in january, with upward revisions to growth and potential output in a number of major advanced economies.
[2018-01-01] As I mentioned, once you—once you’re, broadly speaking, in the range of neutral, I think it’s appropriate to be putting aside individual estimates of that and be looking at what the incoming data are
[2018-01-01] it was possible that recent global trade tensions could be affecting business sentiment more generally.
[2018-01-01] this was 0.3 percentage points weaker than had been expected by bank staff at the time of the august report, and well below the 0.7% average quarterly growth rate recorded in high-frequency indicators
[2018-01-01] downside risks included the possibilities that longer-term inflation expectations may have edged lower or that the run of soft core inflation readings this year could prove to be more persistent than
[2018-01-01] starts for new single-family homes decreased in march, but the average pace in the first quarter was little changed from the fourth quarter.
[2018-01-01] turning to price developments, according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation had stood at 2.0% in june, up from 1.9% in may.
[2018-01-01] at the same time, progress towards a durable and self-sustaining convergence of inflation remained conditional on a substantial degree of monetary accommodation.
[2018-01-01] members noted that this combination of factors posed downside risks.
[2018-01-01] regarding the resilience criterion, it was widely noted that inflation convergence was becoming increasingly self-sustaining and its reliance on the contribution of the net asset purchases was gradual
[2018-01-01] investors also focused on the state of negotiations over brexit and the italian government budget deficit.
[2018-01-01] Several commented that an asymmetric directive did not imply a commitment to tighten monetary policy at some point, whether during the intermeeting period or at a future meeting, but it did imply the
[2018-01-01] share prices had fallen over the preceding month, reflecting concerns about international trade policy developments, as well as regulatory and company-specific developments in the technology sector.
[2018-01-01] compared with the october monetary policy meeting, financing conditions were broadly unchanged and remained very favourable overall.
[2018-01-01] members then shared the recognition that uncertainties regarding overseas economies had heightened further including (1) protectionist moves such as the u.s.-china trade friction, (2) developments in
[2018-01-01] us commodity futures trading commission numbers suggested that the market remained positioned for an appreciation of the euro.
[2018-01-01] one member added that there was a risk that extreme trade protectionism would disrupt established global supply chains and bring about a contraction in global trade, which finally had been recovering.
[2018-01-01] At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced.
[2018-01-01] with respect to the bank's thinking behind its future conduct of monetary policy, most members shared the view that it would (1) continue with qqe with yield curve control, aiming to achieve the price
[2018-01-01] data on approvals in recent months suggested that construction of non-residential buildings was likely to make a smaller contribution to growth in non-mining business investment in future.
[2018-01-01] however, uncertainty surrounding the future of the north american free trade agreement (nafta) is clouding the economic outlook.
[2018-01-01] Some contacts indicated that while input costs were higher, it appeared that the pass-through of these higher costs to consumer prices was limited.
[2018-01-01] cpi and the bank’s core measures of inflation remain near 2 per cent, consistent with an economy operating close to capacity.