yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1999-01-01] While I will carefully monitor inflation expectations, it will be important to see a sustained improvement in actual inflation to meet our average inflation goal.
[1999-01-01] first, the balance of news over the month had been broadly neutral.
[1999-01-01] productivity and economic potential seemed to have been growing at an increasingly rapid rate in recent years.
[1999-01-01] the gfk consumer confidence balance had been +1.7 in april compared to +1.6 in march, and the mori indicator had risen sharply towards 0 in march, in line with the gfk measure of general confidence.
[1999-01-01] Despite a large increase in the overall consumer price index for September, measures of inflation compensation calculated using yields on nominal and inflation-protected Treasury securities were about
[1999-01-01] even so, the outlook for jobs and income and the buildup of financial wealth constituted favorable home affordability factors that appeared likely to support a continuing high level of housing demand,
[1999-01-01] this reflected the view that accumulating inflationary pressures would surface after a period in which measured inflation was held back by a series of specific price level changes.
[1999-01-01] the manpower survey of employment intentions had shown a sharp deterioration looking ahead to 1999 q1.
[1999-01-01] shipments of nondefense capital goods posted further large gains in july and august, with outlays for high-tech machinery and transportation equipment particularly strong.
[1999-01-01] industrial production had risen by only 0.1% in march, though the napm index of industrial confidence had remained strong, and durable goods orders had increased by 2.0% in march.
[1999-01-01] Despite a recent uptick in consumer prices, year-over-year consumer inflation remained at a very low level.
[1999-01-01] The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, and inflation is running close to our 2 percent objective.
[1999-01-01] Their trade accounts tend to be in surplus, in some cases substantially, an indication that they are supplying more goods into the global economy than they are demanding.
[1999-01-01] the information reviewed at this meeting suggested continued strong expansion of economic activity.
[1999-01-01] the pattern of revisions to gdp in the first quarter, with stronger final domestic demand and imports, and weaker stockbuilding, suggested stronger growth in subsequent quarters.
[1999-01-01] however, this had followed much weaker growth in employment costs in 1999 q1, and the two-quarter growth in employment costs still seemed subdued compared with the same two quarters of 1998.
[1999-01-01] another indicated that the Committee could provide guidance stating that it would not raise its target for the federal funds rate if the inflation rate was expected to run below a given level at a spe
[1999-01-01] First, there is a tug of war between the continued exceptional momentum in private domestic demand and the external drag from the Asian crisis.
[1999-01-01] Nevertheless, the role of this consideration in inflation dynamics should not be overlooked or underestimated.
[1999-01-01] a27 the cips report on services had reported a rise in all indices in march: the output index had risen from 49.5 to 53, the first positive reading since october 1998; the incoming new business index
[1999-01-01] In general, participants viewed recent consumer price developments as consistent with their expectation that inflation was on a trajectory to achieve the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective on a
[1999-01-01] and evidence from options suggested, if anything, an upside rather than a downside risk to market interest rates over the next year or so.
[1999-01-01] members commented that the market unsettlement that had in large measure prompted the committee's easing actions during the fall had now lessened appreciably.
[1999-01-01] Higher and more stable growth combined with better ability to undertake long-term plans can help to improve the fiscal outlook for a country.
[1999-01-01] Participants' concerns about inflation prospects generally had increased over the intermeeting period.
[1999-01-01] the cips construction index had also been strong at 57.5 in november, with housing and commercial orders remaining robust.
[1999-01-01] there were suggestions from the bank’s regional agents that the recovery in confidence was fragile.
[1999-01-01] an increasing number of manufacturers had begun to consider investing abroad.
[1999-01-01] (4) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy?
[1999-01-01] Many would ask what challenges could monetary policymakers possibly face in the U.S., given the remarkable combination of consistent above-trend growth and declining inflation?
[1999-01-01] mr. mcteer does not believe that rapid growth based on new technology, rising productivity, and other supply-side factors is inflationary, especially in the current global environment.
[1999-01-01] Developments during the Second Period: 1998-2007 Research during the past ten years has been very fruitful in expanding the profession's understanding of the implications of uncertainty for the design
[1999-01-01] a9 the m4 deposits of the household sector had increased by 1.1% (or £5.1 billion) in april.
[1999-01-01] Fiscal austerity is the one tried and true approach to dealing with budget and trade deficits simultaneously.
[1999-01-01] Despite the progress to date and the signs of acceleration in the recovery, employment is still considerably short of where it was when the pandemic disrupted the economy and it is well below where it
[1999-01-01] Yet as research has repeatedly demonstrated, these sorts of fundamentals only explain a small part of the variation in the prices of assets such as equities, long-term Treasury securities, and corpora
[1999-01-01] more timely data were available for some individual economies; german industrial production had risen by 1.0% in april, but that was still 1.3% lower than a year ago, while french industrial productio
[1999-01-01] the slightly stronger-than-expected consumption numbers reflected the ons’ attempts to capture the changing seasonal pattern of car registrations.
[1999-01-01] a37 wage drift, on the basis of these data, had increased in recent months, particularly in the service sector.
[1999-01-01] robust lending growth had been driven by the continuing strength in lending to households and a rise of some £3 billion in lending to other financial corporations (ofcs) on the month.
[1999-01-01] except for oil, most sensitive commodity prices have risen only slightly after years of decline, the dollar remains strong, real short-term interest rates are near historical norms, and productivity g
[1999-01-01] Nonetheless, employment is still 9.5 million below its pre-pandemic level for the economy as a whole.
[1999-01-01] industrial output strengthened for the fourth quarter as a whole, largely reflecting a surge in the production of motor vehicles and parts that more than offset sizable reductions in mining and utilit
[1999-01-01] the twelve-month rate of aggregate broad money growth had fallen to 5.6% in june, the lowest since march 1995.
[1999-01-01] to some extent, the recent strengthening may have reflected precautionary stockbuilding as insurance against potential supply disruptions relating to the century date change.
[1999-01-01] for 2000, the committee agreed on a tentative basis in june to retain the same ranges for growth of the monetary aggregates and debt, measured from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of
[1999-01-01] a significant development in monetary and financial conditions was the further rise in sterling’s effective exchange rate.
[1999-01-01] This secular decline in term premiums since 1990 appears to be correlated with the decline in long-run inflation uncertainty and in short-term interest rate uncertainty.
[1999-01-01] Despite the prevalence and importance of committees in modern central banking, the role of committees in the formulation of policy has not attracted nearly as much academic attention as has the resear
[1999-01-01] The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, inflation is close to our 2 percent objective, gross domestic product growth is solid, and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) baseline outlook is for
[1999-01-01] gdp figures indicated growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 1999.
[1999-01-01] Despite the substantial monetary easing that had been implemented already and the fiscal stimulus, including federal tax rebates, that was in train, the forecast anticipated that sluggish hiring and t
[1999-01-01] At the conclusion of this discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account
[1999-01-01] a38 the agents also asked whether the quality of recruits had changed in the last 12 months.
[1999-01-01] the recently announced electricians’ settlement was a possible exception, but it appeared to have consolidated certain existing supplementary payments so that the net settlement might have been rather
[1999-01-01] May 13, 2021 The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Governor Christopher J. Waller At The Global Interdependence Center's 39th Annual Monetary and Trade Conference, The LeBow College of Business, Dr
[1999-01-01] this view reflected their expectations that the current expansion, even if it did moderate to a pace approximating the economy's trend potential growth, would do so at a level of resource use that bas
[1999-01-01] In fact, the Federal Reserveâ€™s upcoming Community Affairs Research Conference will feature several papers that explore these issues.5 Homeownership The important issue of loan pricing aside, expande
[1999-01-01] the fall had been largely accounted for by lower contributions from the household expenditure and net export categories.
[1999-01-01] in particular, if that pressure intensified, at some point further gains in productivity would not be able to offset rising wage increases.
[1999-01-01] Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector.
[1999-01-01] part of the july advance reflected a surge in the output of electric utilities associated with the heat wave in the eastern united states and an upturn in mining production after a weak first half of
[1999-01-01] In its March forecast, the staff's projection for real GDP growth over the medium term was somewhat higher than the one presented in January, mostly reflecting an improved outlook for economic activit
[1999-01-01] meanwhile expectations had grown of a reduction in interest rates by the european central bank (ecb).
[1999-01-01] It is precisely because none of these preconditions hold that monetary policy is so difficult and principles are needed to guide its implementation.
[1999-01-01] in particular, the Fed's loss of credibility significantly increased the cost of achieving disinflation.
[1999-02-03] Under what circumstances would we wind up having in the portfolio euro-denominated obligations of other taxing authorities besides the Germans?
[1999-02-03] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-02-03: target=+2.70 bp, path=+2.20 bp
[1999-02-03] It is important for us to recognize that so we can monitor this and make certain we make some good judgments about where we are.
[1999-02-03] Now, what this suggests to me is that money is hiding itself very well.
[1999-02-03] As for the level of the natural rate, it is higher than it has been in some of the past forecasts, although as I noted it drifts down over time as the wealth-to-income ratio drifts down.
[1999-02-03] At the pace the economy has been growing, we are very likely getting close to those limits.
[1999-02-03] We can make a lot of changes ourselves because the statute itself is not all the explicit.
[1999-03-30] As I translate that into price indexes, it gives me a CPI somewhere in the area of 1 or 11/2 percent, given the ambiguity of the reading that we are getting out of the chained price index.
[1999-03-30] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-03-30: target=+1.50 bp, path=-4.10 bp
[1999-03-30] There is, to be sure, some upward pressure on wages, but productivity gains and cost-cutting are acting as effective offsets.
[1999-05-18] Mr. Chairman, I agree with your recommendations of an asymmetric tilt and an immediate announcement.
[1999-05-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-05-18: target=+0.50 bp, path=+32.80 bp
[1999-06-30] He would appreciate having any changes in your forecasts by close of business on Wednesday, July 7.
[1999-06-30] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-06-30: target=-2.10 bp, path=-16.20 bp
[1999-06-30] As far as the national economy is concerned, not surprisingly our VAR model remains quite optimistic.
[1999-06-30] Another consideration, given the importance of the monetary aggregates in our decisionmaking, is the less said about them the better.
[1999-06-30] I'm not sure of the subsequent moves because they weren't at every meeting.
[1999-06-30] We have the same situation in agriculture and so forth that has existed for some time and has already been commented on by others, so I have nothing to add.
[1999-08-24] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-08-24: target=+5.70 bp, path=-5.80 bp
[1999-08-24] I would be inclined to pursue it that way--by prohibiting them from using the program.
[1999-10-05] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-10-05: target=-2.70 bp, path=+25.80 bp
[1999-11-16] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-11-16: target=+11.90 bp, path=+3.80 bp
[1999-11-16] So, in my view, what appears in alternative I is the more appropriate presentation of how the FOMC leaves each meeting.
[1999-11-16] Oil prices are among the many things that I have absolutely no confidence in my ability to predict, so I will go with your forecast.
[1999-12-21] I hope that won't be interpreted as any lack of enthusiasm for getting back to our work after the first of the year.
[1999-12-21] GSS factor decomposition for 1999-12-21: target=+2.40 bp, path=+9.30 bp
[1999-12-21] Mike, I thought the section in the Greenbook on alternative simulations was particularly interesting, especially the comparison between the baseline and the flat funds rate scenario.
[2000-01-01] However, reports from business contacts in several Districts indicated that employers in labor markets in which demand was high or in which workers in some occupations were in short supply were raisin
[2000-01-01] but while sterling was expected to fall at some point against the euro, it was impossible to predict the timing or size of any such adjustment.
[2000-01-01] the fuels component of the index had fallen by 2.5% in october, largely accounted for by the fall of just over 4% in the average sterling oil price in the same month.
[2000-01-01] the prospect of the new millennium might have had some impact on investment, for instance in it, though this remained unclear.
[2000-01-01] But the members generally were concerned that inflation might begin to rise over the intermediate term, especially if labor markets tightened further.
[2000-01-01] Tax rebates, declining energy prices, and widespread discounting of retail prices were cited as positive factors in support of consumer spending on a wide range of goods and services.
[2000-01-01] annual growth in secured lending was little changed, at almost 8%.
[2000-01-01] a18 since the previous mpc meeting, the sterling eri had appreciated by 2.3%, reflecting a 3.4% appreciation against the euro.
[2000-01-01] Those factors included the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the United States since mid-June; the reactions of many states and localities in slowing or scaling back the reopening of their econo
[2000-01-01] But equity prices were only holding their own after a substantial decline earlier and the dollar had appreciated.
[2000-01-01] for mortgages, however, the standard variable rate had risen by almost as much as the repo rate.
[2000-01-01] It is worth noting that today the economy is very strong and is well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy.
[2000-01-01] the committee's action and its announcement that the risks were weighted in the direction of rising inflation were widely anticipated and had little immediate effect on market yields.
[2000-01-01] a43 house price growth appeared to have slowed further in most regions.
[2000-01-01] input prices excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum had risen by 0.4% in july and the annual rate of inflation had fallen to 3.5% from 4.3% in june.
[2000-01-01] Following the deepest plunge since the Great Depression, employment and activity rebounded faster and more sharply than anticipated.
[2000-01-01] the u.s. trade deficit in goods and services reached another new high in february as the value of imports rose sharply further and the value of exports changed little.
[2000-01-01] the u.s. trade deficit in goods and services widened significantly over the october-november period from its average for the third quarter.
[2000-01-01] Although prospects for economic activity had not deteriorated significantly since the March meeting, the outlook for growth and employment remained weak and slack in resource utilization was likely to
[2000-01-01] Although productivity growth had slowed from the extraordinarily rapid pace that prevailed earlier in the expansion, data for the fourth quarter of 2004, as well as preliminary indications for the fir
[2000-01-01] U.S. monetary policy responded to these global "headwinds," helping stave off actual contractions of U.S. activity.
[2000-01-01] What I do want to share with you is how the equity market fits into my thinking about monetary policy.
[2000-01-01] During the first stage, the inflation rate would exceed the long-term desired inflation rate, as the price-level gap was eliminated and the effects of previous deflation undone.
[2000-01-01] Businesses added a bit to their inventory positions after an extended period of sizable declines, but final sales changed little: business capital spending weakened somewhat further while growth in co
[2000-01-01] Business contacts in a number of Districts noted an improvement in housing activity and a continued rise in house prices, although their reports showed that the pace of sales and construction varied a
[2000-01-01] Besides influencing the near-term course of important economic variables, such as gross domestic product growth, inflation, and profits, productivity largely determines our society's long-term economi
[2000-01-01] However, other participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, and that survey-based measures of longer-term i
[2000-01-01] most members felt that there had been little news on balance over the month.
[2000-01-01] Proponents of this strategy sometimes describe this approach as reducing inflation cycle-to-cycle or describe the economy as being one recession from price stability.
[2000-01-01] Besley, Meads and Surico's contribution is to ask whether certain characteristics of the policymakers matter for how they vote on the monetary policy committee.
[2000-01-01] But if the economy instead began to overheat, threatening to push inflation to an undesirably high level, the FOMC would have ample scope to respond through tighter monetary policy.
[2000-01-01] With inflation much higher than the federal funds rate, the real federal funds rate is negative, even after our rate increases this year.
[2000-01-01] Core measures of price inflation had moved up over recent quarters and particularly so over the last few months.
[2000-01-01] m4 lending (excluding securitisations) had grown by £9.7 billion (1.0%) in november, and the twelve-month growth rate had risen sharply to 8.4%.
[2000-01-01] the bank’s twelve-month aei weighted mean had been unchanged at 3.0% in september.
[2000-01-01] It will likely take even longer than that for the unemployment rate to return to a level consistent with our maximum-employment mandate.
[2000-01-01] they agreed, though, that because a significant acceleration in inflation did not appear to be imminent and because uncertainties continued to surround the economic outlook, a gradual approach to poli
[2000-01-01] But if our assessment is correct that inflation is temporary, it would be unwise for us to take actions that might slow the recovery prematurely by trying to stay ahead of inflation, when our best est
[2000-01-01] on balance, market forecasts for 2000 were for the sterling-dollar exchange rate to remain broadly stable, and for the euro to appreciate against both sterling and the dollar.
[2000-01-01] Putting It All Together I would now like to step back and consider the relative contributions to the trade deficit of each of the explanations I have discussed, as shown in figure 6.7 To the extent th
[2000-01-01] the sharp pick-up in borrowing for consumption, from 2% of personal disposable income at the start of 1999 to almost 5% in q3, coupled with house prices and equity prices well above the central projec
[2000-01-01] euro-area business confidence had fallen in november, but consumer confidence had been unchanged from the previous two months, following the sharp fall in september.
[2000-01-01] finally, it might be that companies were borrowing in order to invest overseas, and that some of this borrowing was held on deposit in the uk ahead of a prospective acquisition.
[2000-01-01] During the past several years, workers across the wage distribution--not just at the upper end--have seen noticeable increases in the inflation-adjusted value of their wages.
[2000-01-01] Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
[2000-01-01] The slower growth of final spending resulted in inventory overhangs in a number of industries, most notably those related to the motor vehicle sector.
[2000-01-01] It will take time for the cumulative effect of tighter monetary policy to work through the economy broadly and to bring inflation down.
[2000-01-01] while sterling had risen since the committee’s july meeting, it was still about 4% below the path projected in the may inflation report; and there remained a risk of further falls since the economy wa
[2000-01-01] Under these circumstances, policymakers must be cognizant of the shortcomings of our published price indexes to avoid misguided actions that will provoke unintended consequences.
[2000-01-01] at the conclusion of this discussion, the committee voted to authorize and direct the federal reserve bank of new york, until it is instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the system account
[2000-01-01] And the equity market itself has been the subject of analysis as we attempt to assess the implications for financial and economic stability of the extraordinary rise in equity prices--a rise based app
[2000-01-01] the meeting was recessed briefly after this vote and the members of the board of governors left the room to vote on increases in the discount rate that were pending at several federal reserve banks.
[2000-01-01] And, in my judgment, we may have to rely more on measures other than apparent excess demand to get reliable indications of pending changes in inflationary pressures.
[2000-01-01] Those few members who expressed a preference for easing at this meeting believed that, with unit labor costs and inflation expectations contained, enough evidence of further weakness already existed t
[2000-01-01] Although readings on core inflation had improved modestly since the spring, nearly all participants viewed core inflation as uncomfortably high and stressed the importance of further moderation.
[2000-01-01] another view accepted the best collective judgment of the central projection, but regarded the balance of risks to inflation as clearly on the upside, on account of the possibility of a faster depreci
[2000-01-01] But first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy.