yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2007-01-01] a few members expressed the view that it was unrealistic to expect high growth in private consumption, taking into account the effects of structural factors such as demographic changes.
[2007-01-01] however, the issuing environment for cp and corporate bonds had been favorable, and the lending attitudes of private banks had continued to be accommodative.
[2007-01-01] government bond yields had declined over the past month to as low as 3.8 per cent in the united states, though more recently they had risen a little from that trough.
[2007-01-01] japanese stock prices had risen, mainly reflecting strong expectations of upward revisions in firms' earnings forecasts.
[2007-01-01] the supply disruptions, security concerns in the middle east and speculative excesses that had led to a peak in the oil price of above us$70 per barrel during the middle of 2006 had since been unwindi
[2007-01-01] however, a large reduction in bank rate now would increase the upside risk to inflation.
[2007-01-01] with regard to the spring wage negotiations, a few members expressed the view that more firms were likely to raise wages in the new fiscal year starting april 2007 than in the previous year.
[2007-01-01] Because they cannot rule out the chance that some asset prices might correct more than anticipated, policymakers must consider how the economy might withstand such a correction.
[2007-01-01] in contrast, some members expressed the view that the previous year's surge in crude oil prices would result in stronger downward pressure on the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi, particularly f
[2007-01-01] most members expressed the view, however, that downside risks to the outlook for the u.s. economy had been increasing.
[2007-01-01] The remarkable coming together of technologies that we label IT has allowed us to move beyond efficiency gains in routine manual tasks to achieve new levels of productivity in routine information-proc
[2007-01-01] Perhaps because those asset prices are important to spending, key macroeconomic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, exhibit a similar pattern.
[2007-01-01] To the extent that these producers are foreign, there should be a corresponding drop in domestic demand.
[2007-01-01] In contrast, the past few cycles did not see this kind of behavior, and in each case, financial imbalances, rather than goods and services inflation, were notably elevated at the onset of the downturn
[2007-01-01] as was the case in several other countries, this was the fourth consecutive year of strong returns.
[2007-01-01] employment growth was particularly robust in the fourth quarter and this would support consumption.
[2007-01-01] These participants stated that, in such circumstances, a major challenge facing policymakers—especially in the presence of the effective lower bound on the federal funds rate—was to maintain a policy
[2007-01-01] that was not easy, especially when some shocks could affect both demand and supply.
[2007-01-01] however, they also noted that earnings forecasts generally assumed that the high share of profits in national income and high rates of earnings growth would continue.
[2007-01-01] most forward-looking indicators of housing demand, including an index of pending home sales, pointed to a further deterioration in sales in the near term.
[2007-01-01] The Federal Reserve is taking action to keep inflation expectations anchored and bring inflation back to 2 percent over time.1 While last year's rapid pace of economic growth was boosted by accommodat
[2007-01-01] Historically, recessions often occurred when the Fed tightened to control inflation.
[2007-01-01] cpi inflation in march was 3.1%, with an unexpectedly strong upside contribution from household goods prices in general and furniture in particular.
[2007-01-01] Back then, the unemployment rate was 8.1percent and nonfarm payrolls were reported to have increased at a monthly rate of 97,000 over the prior six months; today, those figures are 7.6 percent and 194
[2007-01-01] as for the employment and income situation, members concurred that household income had continued rising moderately in a situation where various indicators had continued to show tighter labor market c
[2007-01-01] To this end, the new statement conveys the Committee's judgment that, in order to anchor expectations at the 2 percent level consistent with price stability, it "seeks to achieve inflation that averag
[2007-01-01] on average, the economy expanded at a moderate pace during the first half of the year despite the ongoing drag from the housing sector.
[2007-01-01] in any event, the data indicated that some divergence in growth among the states was not uncommon, though it was noteworthy that nsw had underperformed the national average for five consecutive years.
[2007-01-01] Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term.
[2007-01-01] ten-year treasury yields also declined, but less than shorter-term yields.
[2007-01-01] exports of industrial supplies and consumer goods also moved up smartly in september.
[2007-01-01] the problems besetting bear stearns, which had been covered at the previous meeting, had worsened further in recent weeks.
[2007-01-01] (3) with regard to the subprime mortgage problem, central banks had taken measures, including measures to provide liquidity to address elevated pressures in u.s. and european short-term funding market
[2007-01-01] In contrast, Robert Lucas and others reached more dramatic conclusions, arguing that only unpredictable movements in monetary policy can affect the real economy and concluding that policy has no capac
[2007-01-01] in underlying terms, inflation had increased from 2½ per cent at the end of 2005 to around 3 per cent in the september quarter 2006, where it had remained in the final quarter of the year.
[2007-01-01] the difficulty the fed had in getting cash to flow to the institutions most in need, despite the actual fed funds rate being well below target, led it on 17 august to cut the discount rate from 100 ba
[2007-01-01] in the committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, members judged that the softening in the outlook for economic growth warranted an easing of the stance of policy at this m
[2007-01-01] expectations for interest rate increases in the euro area had also firmed and expectations of cuts in the united states had diminished somewhat.
[2007-01-01] the access of investment-grade corporate borrowers to credit so far remained unimpeded, and rates on investment-grade bonds had declined in recent weeks.
[2007-01-01] Alternatively, monetary policy could convert the temporary disinflationary effect into a permanent one.
[2007-01-01] the committee had previously been concerned about the prospective impact of high rpi and cpi inflation on inflation expectations and on wages.
[2007-01-01] these developments did not suggest investors were having any problems in meeting their obligations and, in any event, market indices had subsequently risen.
[2007-01-01] still, they recognized that incoming data on core inflation continued to be favorable, and they generally were a little more confident that the decline in inflation earlier this year would be sustaine
[2007-01-01] Regarding the economic outlook, most participants agreed that economic growth was likely to remain moderate over coming quarters and then pick up gradually.
[2007-01-01] "6 In the second half of the 1990s, this measurement puzzle was at the heart of monetary policymaking.7 Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that the United States was experiencing the dawn of a ne
[2007-01-01] it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, september 18, 2007.
[2007-01-01] financial strains had continued during september but lessened noticeably following the reduction in the federal funds rate of 50 basis points announced by the federal reserve on 18 september.
[2007-01-01] a few members noted that in credit markets the decline in the amount outstanding of asset-backed commercial paper (abcp) was coming to a halt and credit spreads, such as those on corporate bonds, were
[2007-01-01] oil prices had reached another record high, and wheat prices had risen sharply.
[2007-01-01] and fourth, the corporate sector as a whole was likely to continue to be firm, although somewhat cautious views were becoming more prevalent about the outlook for the manufacturing industry.
[2007-01-01] Household spending stepped up in mid-April, coinciding with the first disbursement of stimulus payments to households and a ramp-up in the payout of unemployment benefits, and showed the most pronounc
[2007-01-01] The reduced-form price equations we so often use for inflation prediction bypass direct contact with labor compensation issues.
[2007-01-01] These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity tha
[2007-01-01] revised gdp and inflation forecasts prepared for this meeting were similar to those presented at the previous meeting, but took account of the higher-than-expected growth in the june quarter national
[2007-01-01] real disposable income rose further in july, as wages and salaries posted a strong gain and energy prices came down.
[2007-01-01] Overall, research indicates that trade with developing economies in particular has slowed the rate of growth of import prices faced by industrialized countries, with estimates of the reduction ranging
[2007-01-01] according to the latest national accounts, all components of demand, apart from housing investment, were increasing strongly and economic activity had expanded at a pace well above average over the ye
[2007-01-01] Most participants continued to see the risks to inflation as balanced.
[2007-01-01] The rapid pace of investment also helped to hold down inflationary pressures by increasing the growth of productive capacity.
[2007-01-01] with regard to european economies, many members said that the economy of the euro area continued to expand with domestic and external demand well in balance.
[2007-01-01] but futures prices had been little changed, suggesting that the rise in spot prices was expected to be temporary.
[2007-01-01] gdp in the euro area picked up in the final quarter of 2006, taking growth over the year to 3.3 per cent.
[2007-01-01] For now, the Committee should remain particularly vigilant to incoming information bearing on the outlook for inflation.
[2007-01-01] share markets in other developed countries had also been strong in 2006, apart from japan, where the market had been relatively flat following a very strong year in 2005.
[2007-01-01] With regard to the outlook for inflation, the gap between actual and potential output was anticipated to diminish only slowly unless aggregate demand expanded much more rapidly than the members curren
[2007-01-01] non-farm output increased by 4.6 per cent over the year, with strength in most major components in the most recent quarter.
[2007-01-01] employment had increased at an above-average pace over the past year and the unemployment rate had declined.
[2007-01-01] participants judged that moderate growth of investment outlays going forward was the most likely outcome.
[2007-01-01] Recent declines in payroll employment and industrial production, while still sizable, were smaller than those registered earlier in 2009.
[2007-01-01] The federal funds rate averaged a little higher than the level expected with an unchanged policy stance, in part because of unexpectedly high demand for reserves in late July and early August.
[2007-01-01] share prices in japan had not been as strong as elsewhere, and had shown little change since the start of the year after the sharp increases in the previous two years.
[2007-01-01] For the present, however, inflation remained subdued, and it was likely to remain relatively low for some time in light of the weakness in commodity and other import prices and the tendency for low cu
[2007-01-01] the amount outstanding of cp and corporate bonds issued was somewhat above the previous year's level.
[2007-01-01] in their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, participants generally noted that incoming information pointed to a somewhat weaker outlook for spending than at the time of the october meet
[2007-01-01] and some of the structured investment vehicles had less access to committed liquidity lines (although they would also have a higher proportion of medium-term funding).
[2007-01-01] based on their assessment of the economic and financial situation, members agreed that their basic thinking remained unchanged on the future path of monetary policy: the bank would adjust the level of
[2007-01-01] Through our business contacts, we continue to hear stories about bottlenecks at almost every stage of production and distributionâ€”for example, plants that shut down because of a shortage of one or m
[2007-01-01] the wti crude oil price had reached almost us$100 per barrel during the past month, but had dropped back to below us$90 in the past week or so.
[2007-01-01] concern about the health of the us economy was one candidate trigger for the volatility in financial markets.
[2007-01-01] For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year.
[2007-01-01] When interest rates increase, prices will undoubtedly adjust to some extent--in some cases simply by rising less rapidly than they would otherwise--and debt-service obligations will move up.
[2007-01-01] the bank conducted money market operations in accordance with the guideline decided at the previous meeting on october 10 and 11, 2007.
[2007-01-01] the bank conducted money market operations in accordance with the guideline decided at the previous meeting on january 17 and 18, 2007.
[2007-01-01] the spot price of oil had risen by about 6% in dollar terms, seemingly prompted by increased concerns about middle-east supply.
[2007-01-01] However, I can provide you with some insight into the way the FOMC functions and the impact of monetary policy on the U.S. and global economies.
[2007-01-01] many members expressed the view that private consumption had been firm in terms of the average of july and august, as seen in the following developments: consumption, which was sluggish in july due to
[2007-01-01] In contrast, changes in inflation rates in some services categories, such as shelter costs, tend to be more persistent.
[2007-01-01] Conclusion To sum up, none of us, obviously, can see the future, and instead we shall have to monitor incoming data closely for evidence of any shifts in recent productivity trends.
[2007-01-01] members discussed the bank's communication of its thinking concerning the conduct of monetary policy.
[2007-01-01] the chinese authorities had adopted several policy measures in an attempt to reduce the speculative excesses in the equity market and to slow the pace of economic activity.
[2007-01-01] house prices had increased more strongly in the september quarter.
[2007-01-01] foreign investors were largely limited to the china b market, which was relatively small and denominated in foreign currency.
[2007-01-01] When considering the risks to the labor market, these risks must be viewed in the context of its current strength and with the understanding that our primary challenge is to get inflation under contro
[2007-01-01] Because current inflation is affected by inflation expectations, the smaller increase in expected inflation will lead to a smaller increase in actual inflation as well.
[2007-01-01] Recent data suggested that growth of household spending had picked up, while business fixed investment had continued to grow strongly.
[2007-01-01] a different member said that international commodity prices had bounced back recently, and such upward pressures on upstream prices warranted attention because they might affect consumer prices eventu
[2007-01-01] The foreign exchange value of the dollar, which depreciated immediately following the FOMC's November announcement of further asset purchases, subsequently appreciated amid intensifying concerns about
[2007-01-01] Because there is considerable uncertainty about the persistence, breadth, and magnitude of climate-related shocks to the economy, it could be challenging to assess what adjustments to monetary policy
[2007-01-01] similar trends had been seen, though to a lesser extent, in the us and canada, which also had puzzling strength in employment in the context of apparently weak productivity growth.
[2007-01-01] However, energy prices were expected to level out, and rents, while difficult to forecast, were viewed by some participants as likely to decelerate in coming quarters.
[2007-01-01] Recent data, supported by anecdotal reports from several though not all parts of the country, suggested that residential building activity was slowing somewhat, apparently in lagged response to earlie
[2007-01-01] government bond yields in the major countries had increased from their recent lows, following safe-haven buying by investors during august, and had returned to the range that they had traded in for th
[2007-01-01] one member said that exports to the united states had continued to be on an uptrend as a whole, although the economic slowdown had had some effects, for example, a slowing of growth in exports of auto
[2007-01-01] a few members noted, however, that attention should be paid to upside risks in the chinese economy.
[2007-01-01] What policy options exist to deal with the U.S. current account deficit?
[2007-01-01] members also agreed that consumer prices in both fiscal 2007 and 2008 were likely to evolve broadly in line with the projection in the april outlook report.
[2007-01-01] surveys indicated that households’ expectations of inflation over the next year were little changed in february while households’ and professional forecasters’ longer-term inflation expectations edged
[2007-01-01] To summarize these international data, one might say that something brought inflation down in the 1980s and 1990s,
[2007-01-01] After taking account of both frictional and structural unemployment, what unemployment rate is roughly equivalent to the maximum level of employment that can be sustained in the longer run?
[2007-01-01] That is, monetary policy responds to changes in fiscal policy in much the same way that it responds to other influences on the economy, such as equity prices, exchange rates, or the demand for U.S. ex
[2007-01-01] sales at department stores and supermarkets, particularly of apparel, had continued to be susceptible to weather conditions, but in terms of the average for the months in the january-march quarter, th
[2007-01-01] while growth was forecast to slow to 4¾ per cent in 2007, if realised this would be the fifth consecutive year of growth above the 30-year average; these forecasts did not yet incorporate the higher-t
[2007-01-01] members noted that while iron ore and, to a lesser extent, coal exports had increased rapidly in recent years, a trend decline in oil exports, owing to the depletion of existing oil fields, had weighe
[2007-01-01] Persistent inflation shortfalls carry the risk that longer-term inflation expectations become anchored below the stated inflation goal.13 In part because of that concern, some economists have advocate
[2007-01-01] members recalled that the wage price index had risen by 4 per cent over the year to the june quarter, which indicated no acceleration in wages.
[2007-01-01] Three Asset-Price-Bust Episodes Let us first examine the U.K. recession of 1974.
[2007-01-01] That projection, along with the path to year-three inflation, should help the public differentiate short-term shocks to price stability from the longer-term price trends it should use for planning pur
[2007-01-01] it was possible that the national accounts data had underestimated export growth, either because of the uncertainty associated with fraudulent activity or because the united kingdom was a major export
[2007-01-01] the shift in market rates had tightened monetary conditions further, but the change in bank rate over the previous year had largely been a withdrawal of an accommodative policy stance and it was not s
[2007-01-01] sales of existing single-family homes held steady in november and rose in december, while sales of new homes inched up in both months.
[2007-01-01] participants generally expected no more than moderate growth in consumer spending over the near term.
[2007-01-01] this member said that it would still not be too late to raise the policy interest rate after explaining the bank's projections for prices including that for fiscal 2008 through, for example, the upcom
[2007-01-01] Three Questions The first question is, "Can the Federal Reserve best meet its statutory objectives with its existing monetary policy strategy, or should it consider strategies that aim to reverse past
[2007-01-01] labour market conditions in the united states had begun to soften in the past few months, with a fall in non-farm payrolls in august and downward revisions to the growth in payrolls in the preceding t
[2007-01-01] Conclusion: The Challenge Facing Monetary Policy This analysis suggests that monetary policy does face a challenge--rebalancing aggregate supply and demand to contain the risk of higher inflation.
[2007-01-01] How would that development affect the economy and monetary policy?
[2007-01-01] many members noted that growth in employment continued, albeit at a slower pace, as evidenced by the upward revision of nonfarm payroll employment for august and the increase in september.
[2007-01-01] To the extent that the combination of a low neutral rate, a flat Phillips curve, and low underlying inflation may lead financial imbalances to become more tightly linked to the business cycle, it is i
[2007-01-01] members noted that a range of important questions arose from assessments of the true trend in productivity in the australian economy, including those relating to potential growth and living standards.
[2007-01-01] They also agreed that the inflation situation seemed to have improved slightly and judged that it was no longer appropriate to indicate that a sustained moderation in inflation pressures had yet to be
[2007-01-01] However, growth of mortgage loans on banks' books slowed somewhat in the first half of this year.
[2007-01-01] With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024.
[2007-01-01] The release this year and last of mortgage price data gathered under the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) has highlighted a different, but potentially related, concern about access to credit on equ
[2007-01-01] in the united states, downgrading of securitized products backed by subprime mortgage loans and the emergence of subprime mortgage-related losses at some financial institutions had led to a considerab
[2007-01-01] they added that problems such as the slowdown in private consumption could become more pronounced depending on developments in housing and stock prices, and there was increasing uncertainty with regar
[2007-01-01] exports were expected to continue to rise against the background of the expansion of overseas economies as a whole.
[2007-01-01] real gdp was anticipated to increase at a rate noticeably below its potential in 2008.
[2007-01-01] the fall in the chinese share market could not be traced to any particular event, though it may have reflected concerns about measures, such as a capital gains tax, the authorities were contemplating
[2007-01-01] new data on mortgage delinquencies in the us for the march quarter showed a rise to about 14 per cent for sub-prime loans, but there had been little change in the proportion of prime loans that were d
[2007-01-01] The first round of the three-month U. S. dollar auctions that major foreign central banks announced on September 15 was held in October; demand was quite limited, and only the European Central Bank (E