yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2003-01-01] To provide some evidence for this assertion, as well as some reasons for it, I draw your attention to a speech that Chairman Greenspan made earlier this year, entitled "Risk and Uncertainty in Monetar
[2003-01-01] Not surprisingly, the projected path of above-trend GDP growth in 2021 and 2022 translates into rapid declines in the projected path for the unemployment rate, which is projected to fall to 3.8 percen
[2003-01-01] given the substantial ongoing slack in resource utilization, some slight downward pressure on core consumer price inflation was anticipated in the staff forecast.
[2003-01-01] Thus, avoiding a further substantial fall in inflation should be a priority of monetary policy.
[2003-01-01] Notably, if people feel sure that inflation will remain well controlled, they will be more restrained in their wage-setting and pricing behavior, which (in something of a virtuous circle) makes it eas
[2003-01-01] bond yields had generally risen after the us interest rate decision.
[2003-01-01] at its meeting on june 24-25, the committee adopted a directive that called for lowering the target for the intended federal funds rate 25 basis points, to 1 percent.
[2003-01-01] a38 manufacturing output prices excluding duties (ppiy) had risen by 0.3% in july, while the annual inflation rate had risen to 1.3%, from 1.1% in june.
[2003-01-01] Nonetheless, the current account deficit continued to grow as a result of the surge in U.S. investment and productivity and the associated capital inflows seeking the higher U.S. rates of return.
[2003-01-01] Even so, the growth of investment spending over this period noticeably outpaced the rise in retained earnings, and thus these corporations turned to the capital markets to fill the widening gap.
[2003-01-01] surveys remained generally, but not uniformly, strong, with the cips services business activity index at its highest level since 1997 and the manufacturing pmi at its highest since the end of 1999; an
[2003-01-01] also term premiums to compensate for the risk associated with commitments to extend credit so far in the future, including the risk of future inflation.
[2003-01-01] The Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of Monetary Policy One of the most remarkable and fundamental changes in the global financial landscape over the past three decades has been the st
[2003-01-01] this release was consistent with data which would be published in “2003 national accounts – the blue book” on 24 october.
[2003-01-01] A potential negative cited by some members was the possibility that a weak job market, should it persist, would at some point adversely affect overall consumer sentiment and willingness to spend.
[2003-01-01] To quantify the importance of the shift in the balance of demand and supply and of the consequent change in the term premium, we can appeal to the research literature on the term structure of interest
[2003-01-01] third-quarter growth in non-japan asia had rebounded from the weak second-quarter outturn, reinforcing the view that that weakness had reflected the temporary effects of sars-related disruption.
[2003-01-01] Participants also noted that unemployment insurance claims continued to run at a historically elevated level, but the proportion of laid-off workers who expected to be recalled was unusually large.
[2003-01-01] To abstract from the potential effects of cyclical factors on the yield curve, consider the pattern of forward rates many years into the future, at which point the effects of current cyclical shocks w
[2003-01-01] Moreover, economic theory indicates that the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth
[2003-01-01] manufacturers ran off stocks at a fairly rapid pace in both months, while wholesalers and retailers excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers recorded small declines in stocks in august after accumula
[2003-01-01] We should first recognize that the form of the U.S. government is different than that of most inflation-targeting countries.
[2003-01-01] This effort culminated in 1943 with the publication of Banking and Monetary Statistics, which included annual figures on demand and time deposits from 1892 and on currency from 1860.
[2003-01-01] In light of these uncertainties as well as continued evidence of muted inflation pressures, participants generally agreed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range
[2003-01-01] private sector pay pressures were benign, but prospects going forward depended on whether this would persist or was simply a reflection of the weakness of activity; and public sector pay was growing s
[2003-01-01] the institute for supply management (ism) manufacturing index had risen to 49.8 in june, from 49.4 in may, while the non-manufacturing ism index had risen to 60.6 in june, from 54.5 in may.
[2003-01-01] that fall would reduce inflation projections (relative to last month’s) by around 0.2 percentage points in the near term, but, because the two-year-ahead futures price of oil had remained unchanged, t
[2003-01-01] a36 headline (three-month average) whole-economy average earnings had increased by 3.4% in the year to august, up 0.1 percentage points on the july rate.
[2003-01-01] but the output components of the july cips purchasing managers’ indices suggested a stronger recovery – close to trend in q3.
[2003-01-01] the weakest sector, by a wide margin, had been general industrials, which had declined by around 11%.
[2003-01-01] This information helps Committee members deduce how their own actions and statements are likely to affect asset prices and yields.
[2003-01-01] annual growth of m4 had risen to 8.0% in april, from 7.3% in march.
[2003-01-01] looking forward, the price expectations in the royal institution of chartered surveyors remained weak and particulars delivered had fallen again in april.
[2003-01-01] Were we to introduce an interest rate rule, how would we judge the meaning of a rule that posits a rate far above or below the current rate?
[2003-01-01] Moreover, if declines in house prices were to damp consumption, that could feed back on employment and income, exerting additional restraint on the demand for housing.
[2003-01-01] Because his econometric analysis of the available data indicated that money demand was more stable than aggregate demand, Bill formulated a simple rule that adjusted the money growth rate in response
[2003-01-01] that could have reflected the relaxation of constraints on workers’ choice of hours, allowing more to opt to go part-time, or labour hoarding by employers during a cyclical slowdown; a reversal of the
[2003-01-01] We can best promote a progressive credit climate by maintaining an environment of low inflation.
[2003-01-01] With the latter displaying relative vigor, the value of domestic imports was likely to continue to exceed that of exports by a substantial margin, thereby tending to perpetuate the large current accou
[2003-01-01] Share prices of financial firms fell especially sharply, reportedly a reflection, in part, of concerns about exposures to subprime mortgages and about the effect of a potential slowdown in merger acti
[2003-01-01] on the negative side, there were few indications of a possible upturn in commercial construction activity.
[2003-01-01] at the same time, imports continued to expand rapidly, reflecting not only growth in u.s. domestic demand but also the increased availability of foreign products at attractive prices stemming from the
[2003-01-01] one possible counterpart to the recent revisions to the current account might be weaker estimates of the financial position of the corporate sector, but corporate balance sheets had recently been impr
[2003-01-01] firms had also been asked what factors would influence their investment plans over the next year, and how they planned to change investment in particular assets.
[2003-01-01] the committee's decision was widely anticipated and elicited little reaction in financial markets.
[2003-01-01] This direction of causality may obscure the negative relationship, running from higher inflation to lower growth, presumed to hold in the longer term.
[2003-01-01] overseas holiday bookings had begun to recover but inbound tourism had remained weak.
[2003-01-01] This is a tangible recent example of the need both to judge how the equilibrium real interest rate that is relevant for policy might have changed from a perceived long-run level and to set policy agai
[2003-01-01] the japanese index of tertiary activity had fallen by 0.7% on the month in december, and q3.
[2003-01-01] A variety of indicators, along with anecdotal reports, suggested that employment was expanding at a fairly good pace and labor compensation was rising moderately.
[2003-01-01] Because inflation expectations are now more firmly tied down, surges and declines in energy prices do not significantly affect core inflation and thus do not force a policy response to inflation to th
[2003-01-01] producer prices for both core and total finished goods posted unusually large increases in october, reflecting in part a sizable advance in the prices of motor vehicles.
[2003-01-01] but this was offset by a 5.6% rise in government investment and a 1.0 percentage point contribution from valuables.
[2003-01-01] annual growth in export volumes had been 3.7% in july, compared with a fall of 1.2% in june.
[2003-01-01] Members again mentioned concerns on the part of business contacts regarding the adverse economic implications of very large deficits for the economy over the longer term.
[2003-01-01] Since the previous FOMC meeting, spreads on municipal bonds narrowed substantially, on net, moving near levels observed for several years before the pandemic, as investor demand exhibited some recover
[2003-01-01] These are exactly the concerns expressed in Tom Sargentâ€™s (2000) book on the rise and fall of U.S. inflation, in which he worries that a misunderstanding of the inflation process might again lead to
[2003-01-01] Because good forecasts are so crucial to good monetary policy, I hope and expect to see a great deal more work exploring the robustness of alternative forecasting methods.
[2003-01-01] the bank of japan’s tankan large manufacturers’ diffusion index had fallen by 1 point, to –10, but the large non-manufacturers’ diffusion index had increased by 2 points, to –14.
[2003-01-01] In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation.
[2003-01-01] To reduce that uncertainty, we often use the unemployment gap rather than the output gap in these rules.19 We also need to pick values for the coefficients a and b, whether they are the values John Ta
[2003-01-01] I look forward to my conversation with Steve Liesman and to your questions, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new mone
[2003-01-01] seven members of the committee (the governor, mervyn king, christopher allsopp, kate barker, charles bean, marian bell and stephen nickell) voted in favour.
[2003-01-01] We are not seeing any evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.
[2003-01-01] Even before the recent unfortunate developments in the Middle East, demand to augment buffer stocks surged, which has helped to keep prices high.
[2003-01-01] four members (andrew large, kate barker, stephen nickell and paul tucker) voted against, preferring an increase in the repo rate of 25 basis points.
[2003-01-01] the committee’s latest projections assumed by convention that equity prices would rise from their current level in line with nominal gdp, and that the effects on activity and prices of their recent fa
[2003-01-01] the twelve-month growth rate of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had fallen to 11.4% in september, from 11.9% in august.
[2003-01-01] A number of participants stressed that recently enacted fiscal support would help address some of the hardships faced by these groups and that monetary policy would also help by promoting the economy'
[2003-01-01] forecasts in the consensus economics survey had continued to point to dollar depreciation against the euro, even though relative interest rates would have been consistent with dollar appreciation.
[2003-01-01] several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term.
[2003-01-01] This conclusion is buttressed by recent sizable increases estimated for labor productivity for the manufacturing sector, derived from a data system that, for the most part, is independent of the natio
[2003-01-01] a12 the number of loan approvals for house purchase, after adjusting for the number of working days in the month, had fallen to 115,000 in december compared with 121,000 in november.
[2003-01-01] Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible.
[2003-01-01] Participants commented on the continued improvement in labor market conditions in recent months driven by strong demand for workers.
[2003-01-01] Even so, the growth rate of the ECI did not return to the levels experienced before 2008.
[2003-01-01] Even as the outlook for real activity has weakened, there have been some important developments on the inflation front.
[2003-01-01] Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggested that most firms had little ability to raise their prices in the current economic environment.
[2003-01-01] as experience had shown, at times of economic and financial market stress the specific policy tools used would depend on circumstances.
[2003-01-01] real consumer outlays, excluding cars and trucks, were flat in april but turned up in may.
[2003-01-01] This is an example of offsetting the attenuation in the response to the output gap with a more aggressive response to inflation realizations.
[2003-01-01] Because economic downturns typically result in even greater uncertainty about asset values, such episodes may involve an adverse feedback loop whereby financial disruptions cause investment and consum
[2003-01-01] according to eurostat, the volume of retail sales in the euro area had been unchanged on a year earlier in july.
[2003-01-01] These concerns were centered around the fact that corporate borrowers could no longer raise funds in the bond or commercial paper markets at reasonable prices or, at some times and for some borrowers,
[2003-01-01] spending was supported in recent months by the sizable boost to disposable personal income from tax cuts as well as by levels of wealth and confidence that were considerably above their values earlier
[2003-01-01] Meeting Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants-the four members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the twelve Feder
[2003-01-01] the war in iraq had increased the difficulty of interpreting survey responses, probably making them unduly pessimistic but to an unknown extent.
[2003-01-01] the average standard variable mortgage rate was unchanged at 5.49%.
[2003-01-01] Participants also observed that crude oil prices fell over the intermeeting period and other commodity prices also moderated, developments that were likely to damp headline inflation at the consumer l
[2003-01-01] With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.
[2003-01-01] a50 retail sales had recovered slightly over the easter period and into early may, but the underlying position had been one of weaker growth in 2003 compared with 2002.
[2003-01-01] pre-tax corporate profits (including an adjustment for inventory valuation and capital consumption) had risen by 3.3% in q4 compared with a quarter earlier.
[2003-01-01] at the same time, the persistence of very strong competitive pressures, including those arising from foreign competitors, was preventing most business firms from passing on higher costs by raising pri
[2003-01-01] These authors point out (as have many others) that, when nominal interest rates are at or near zero, the central bank can lower the real rate of interest only by creating expectations of inflation on
[2003-01-01] sales of existing single-family homes in october were only a bit below the record level set in september.
[2003-01-01] Members agreed that the Federal Reserve was committed to using its full range of tools to support the U. S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum-employment and price-stabili
[2003-01-01] the final release of the university of michigan headline index of consumer confidence had risen to 89.6 in october, from 87.7 in september.
[2003-01-01] there were upside risks to public sector pay, as public spending increased, which might spill over to the private sector.
[2003-01-01] The Fed is not authorized to grant money to particular beneficiaries, to meet the payroll expenses of small businesses, or to underwrite the unemployment benefits of displaced workers.
[2003-01-01] Moreover, current data suggested little or no growth in overall expenditures on nonresidential structures.
[2003-01-01] clothing sales had, however, remained weak, and this had resulted in early discounting.
[2003-01-01] the fall in lfs unemployment had been more than accounted for by short-term unemployment, and the rate of inflows to the claimant count was little changed.
[2003-01-01] We found that a surprise increase of 25 basis points in the funds rate target typically results in a decline in broad equity indexes of about 1 percent, whereas a change in the funds rate that is expe
[2003-01-01] Similarly, measures of underlying inflation continued to be somewhat low relative to levels seen as consistent with the dual mandate over the longer run.
[2003-01-01] although households had in aggregate acquired additional financial assets at a rate which broadly matched their increasing liabilities, the falls in equity market prices had at the same time eroded th
[2003-01-01] Signs of an actual change in inflation were still quite tentative and anecdotal, and they did not warrant an adjustment to policy at this meeting.
[2003-01-01] only a minority of the decline in non-farm payrolls was accounted for by the call-up of reservists in the armed forces (over 200,000 by mid-march, not all of whom would have been on those payrolls bef
[2003-01-01] the twelve-month growth rate of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had also risen, to 10.7% in december from 10.4% in november.
[2003-01-01] Notwithstanding the shift toward monetary policy committees, each central bank and its institutional structure reflects the politics and culture of the country that it serves (or "countries" in the ca
[2003-01-01] core consumer price inflation remained subdued in october, although it was up from even lower levels in the first part of the year, when it was depressed by transitory factors.
[2003-01-01] Because equity valuations may pose asymmetric risks to the economic forecast, the implied optimal responses of policy to changes in asset prices may be nonlinear.
[2003-01-01] however, their measure for 2004 q4 had fallen to 2.3% in april, from 2.4% in march.
[2003-01-01] We said that we expect to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomesâ€”as well as our maximum-employment mandateâ€”are achieved, and also that we expect it will be approp
[2003-01-01] However, we now know that an unexpected and unrecognized slowdown in productivity growth occurred in 1973.
[2003-01-01] This is modeled by assuming that wage change depends on q*, while the inflation equation (based on the markup equation) depends on q.
[2003-01-01] sterling’s recent movements relative to the dollar and the euro had, however, been less consistent than before.
[2003-01-01] Hungary and Poland adopted inflation targeting following parliamentary acts stipulating that price stability was the main objective for the central bank.
[2003-01-01] anecdotal evidence suggested that the foreign exchange market on balance expected a reduction in repo rate, so that if such a reduction were made it was unlikely that sterling would immediately fall m
[2003-01-29] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 28-29, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washi
[2003-01-29] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. Oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fos
[2003-01-29] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-01-29: target=+3.50 bp, path=+10.40 bp
[2003-01-29] There again, it doesn't mean that Glenn is wrong, but it does mean that there is friction between these two views, and it can't be settled at this table.
[2003-01-29] While jobs are declining, personal income continues to grow at a modest pace.
[2003-01-29] I'm rather surprised, Sandy, that in response to Governor Bernanke's important question you didn't talk a little about developments in the world of semiconductors.
[2003-01-29] So I would ask what sort of adjustments that would induce in the U.S. economy.
[2003-03-18] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-03-18: target=+2.90 bp, path=-2.40 bp
[2003-03-18] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. While incoming economic data since the January meeting have been mixed, recent
[2003-03-18] We have no choice but to fix the overnight rate because we've tried everything else and nothing else has worked.
[2003-04-16] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 18, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington
[2003-05-06] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 6, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D
[2003-05-06] The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. Recent readings on production and employment, though mostly reflecting decisions mad
[2003-05-06] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-05-06: target=+5.20 bp, path=-27.00 bp
[2003-05-06] Second, some of the revisions that we made to the second half of the year had less to do with the actual data we were seeing on the various spending categories and more with what we were seeing on the
[2003-06-25] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 24-25, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingt
[2003-06-25] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point re
[2003-06-25] If I ask myself why I might be concerned about deflation, exhibit 1 is one answer--the Depression.
[2003-06-25] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-06-25: target=+14.40 bp, path=+10.60 bp
[2003-06-25] But for the purposes of this statement, we're saying that all of the signs plus the additional stimulus would suggest a significant acceleration in economic activity.
[2003-06-25] But I would hope that we could stay with this language for today.
[2003-06-25] One concept that I thought was extremely interesting was the issue raised about changing expectations.
[2003-06-25] We are fortunate that at least right now we don't have those kinds of problems in the United States, so Vincent and I did not have to delve into that issue in our presentation.
[2003-08-12] If we just repeat what we said before, we're signaling to everyone that policy is on hold.
[2003-08-12] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-08-12: target=+3.70 bp, path=-11.90 bp
[2003-08-12] [Laughter] So I have that adverse mental association with the whole concept.