yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1982-03-30] But the quarterly model, which is of course often wrong, would suggest growth at these interest rates also.
[1982-03-30] Whether they can or not I don't know, because the attitude between management and the UAW, as you know, is very poor there.
[1982-03-30] There could be that kind of cycling, but that might be a minor variation around the more underlying trend we're trying to achieve.
[1982-03-30] But we should not say that there's a tremendous flow of credit in these markets.
[1982-05-18] It seems to me that there are two main reasons why rates are staying up.
[1982-05-18] One of the things that seems to be at work here is that they see a longer-term deterioration of their competitive position going out into '83, '84, '85, and '86.
[1982-05-18] Even if money growth from April to June is zero, second-quarter growth of M1 will be somewhere between 3 and 4 percent.
[1982-07-01] Stepping back, I think it's worth mentioning that our forecast is significantly different from Jim's.
[1982-07-01] Then we'd come to our federal funds limitation, anyway, at some point.
[1982-07-01] If we were so fortunate as to see interest rates decline also, there would be the usual lag in the downward adjustment of yields on money market mutual funds and hence a tendency for [funds to move] i
[1982-07-01] Now, whether we actually will extend any money before the weekend is something of an open question.
[1982-07-01] If we started with $300 million borrowing, that would be a very sudden move, not a gradual one.
[1982-10-05] And we get into this ridiculous situation where a country that is putting in $12-1/2 million has the same voice as the United States does.
[1982-10-05] Let me say in that connection--and I should have said it more clearly before--that I think this situation is manageable.
[1982-11-16] We can't be too cumbersome at this point, but any Reserve Bank that wants to contribute should be in touch with Mr. Axilrod.
[1982-11-16] If we wait too long, we may not make effective use of this credibility.
[1982-11-16] If there is a lot of discomfort about doing it today, it will be done presumably on Thursday or Friday.
[1982-12-21] I would guess we ought to go to $175 million [rather than] $200 million, but I don't think it makes a lot of difference.
[1982-12-21] Even if, as Steve suggests, after the stock adjustment we get back to a place where two-thirds of M1 is transactions money, one-third of it won't be.
[1982-12-21] Just to nail that down once more, how many points off the M2 numbers in the Bluebook?
[1982-12-21] But I certainly would stay quite flexible, with a sharp eye on interest rates.
[1982-12-21] It's very important that we maintain that, but can we use such a simple rule as we have been using when the relationships between the rule and the economy, which never were all that great, have broken
[1982-12-21] This states it the other way around, resulting from the introduction of the new money market accounts.
[1982-12-21] Well, what I understand is that we were asked to give a Committee or a Board forecast.
[1982-12-21] Would you attribute that to technical reasons or is there anything there that might be a harbinger of a change in expectations with regard to Fed policy and inflation?
[1982-12-21] It looks to be very stable on a quarterly basis, but if you look at it on a monthly basis, just taking this year as an example, it has ranged from about 4.4 percent growth in February and what would b
[1982-12-21] And the BIS wanted them to put in 50/50, particularly considering all this other stuff.
[1982-12-21] Well, that would only be if the Committee wanted to; we just suggested that.
[1982-12-21] In fact, the existing $1-1/4 billion of the first section of Treasury money is to be [repaid] quite promptly out of the Fund drawings in a matter of weeks, if all goes well and according to plan.
[1983-02-09] But it is of interest, Mr. Chairman, that a lot of the slide occurred when interest rates were going up cyclically.
[1983-02-09] Just to be clear, I think the second part would reflect a view that right now we don't want to tighten, which is implied by the existing language but is not quite as clear.
[1983-02-09] Lesser restraint would be acceptable in the context of appreciable slowing of growth in the aggregates to or below the paths implied by the long-term ranges, taking account of the distortions related
[1983-02-09] We didn't think that there was room for any more private credit within the monetary targets and given the government's [needs].
[1983-02-09] I think we have to ease the funds rate down to around 8 percent before a discount rate cut.
[1983-02-09] A general point I made earlier in the evening, Mr. Chairman, was that whether you look at velocity contemporaneously or lagged, there is a marked change in the behavior of velocity in '82 relative to
[1983-02-09] Now, if we find ourselves in that situation, M1 with all its imperfections and everything else is really the only device to use, in terms of the way we run monetary policy, to be able to snug up.
[1983-03-29] You have discarded the first parenthetical sentence in alternative II and you have tried to incorporate an additional sentence.
[1983-03-29] Well, it's not low relative to what it has been in the past when currency wasn't going up this rapidly.
[1983-05-24] You have to put it in because that's the only reason we're talking about snugging.
[1983-05-24] I think things are sort of at an even keel and if business and mortgage markets thought that the low rates were over and that rates not only were not going to stay about where they are but were going
[1983-07-13] And [if] we ignore it, we're losing credibility as well as probably [unintelligible].
[1983-07-13] The demand for credit is directly related to the level of interest rates.
[1983-07-13] The arrow is nice and straight; we just don't know which way it's going.
[1983-10-04] Even that looks a little better in that we have more signs of a pickup abroad now than we had maybe a month or so ago.
[1983-11-15] So, we get the deceleration occurring in three years but we have to spend the first two years--the next two years--holding down those things that we think are apt to boost inflation.
[1983-11-15] There is still a good deal of weakness in a couple of markets such as copper and I guess silver and lead.
[1983-11-15] They would all expect the price of gold to go up instead of going down.
[1983-12-20] And if this process begins on February 2nd, inevitably I guess we're going to have to say something before then.
[1983-12-20] What we're talking about is that this snugging up, if that is the right term, might well come about early in January.
[1984-01-31] The anecdotal evidence from some of our directors, which of course isn't definitive, has been pretty constant in recent months.
[1984-01-31] There was not any great consensus for either one of those, but if you added together all the people who thought there should be a little reduction in one or the other, there was some sentiment
[1984-03-27] But could I at least assume by my very modest statement that if by some development the borrowing turned out to be quite consistent with a 9-3/4 percent federal funds rate, that we haven't got enough
[1984-03-27] It is conceivable that we might have some embarrassments looking ahead.
[1984-03-27] If we follow the Chairman's suggestion on the directive as shown on the paper he passed out, we would be encouraging an increased emphasis on weekly volatility.
[1984-03-27] But I will accept any comments anyone wants to make here as to how one manages one's affairs in the interim.
[1984-03-27] No, I mean the third sentence where you have "greater reserve restraint.
[1984-03-27] That was the question I wanted to ask: If we take "B" as specified and say 7 to 11 percent, have we done anything?
[1984-03-27] We have a drop of around 7 percent, but I think a lot of that is the distortions of the excess and required reserves in March.
[1984-05-22] Sam, what I hear about negotiations with Argentina isn't very positive right now.
[1984-05-22] If those banks down in Atlanta aren't worried about Continental, I assume they are fully funded.
[1984-05-22] But I thought the practical implication of what you were saying was that you don't want the qualifier "only" inserted, which we didn't have in the previous directive.
[1984-07-17] The two most marked examples, I think, are the Canadians and the British.
[1984-07-17] One can either attribute that to the greater intensity of the recession than some earlier recessions or to some feeling that they can't pass on these wages as easily in price increases.
[1984-07-17] I don't know who to ask, but the staff is forecasting a $115 billion current account deficit in 1985 and a decline in the exchange rate of the dollar against foreign currencies of 15 percent.
[1984-07-17] In my mind, to the extent that nominal GNP grows faster than that, it would increase the likelihood that more of it would be prices and less of it would be real.
[1984-07-17] My numbers are on the high side of the forecasts, but not extraordinarily so.
[1984-07-17] As for capacity utilization, it's difficult to factor in all that retrofitting of plant into the bare number of the domestic capacity utilization and, unfortunately, no one has figured a really good w
[1984-07-17] certainly couldn't have been much worse than it was and looks like a continuing problem, and it doesn't seem to have shaken the market any more.
[1984-08-21] I seem to recall that we observed the same kind of phenomenon when Franklin borrowed sizable amounts in the summer of 1974, and I'm wondering whether there isn't something about the channels of distri
[1984-10-02] Also, as I mentioned earlier, the economy is definitely slowing.
[1984-10-02] It is amazing how much the attitudes [have changed]; everybody seems to talk about what a good thing the dollar is to get into these days.
[1984-11-07] It seems to me that all of these fine arguments that Mr. Axilrod and others make about M1 really come down to the question of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
[1984-12-18] We can provide a perfect monetary policy if you say we just can't provide a perfect economy.
[1984-12-18] I mean if lowering rates isn't producing some kind of a calamitous result internally.
[1984-12-18] We could probably leave it simply "reduce somewhat" and not worry about the fact that since Thursday and today there has been--
[1984-12-18] As to the long-term rates, I think there will be a slight declining effect from lower short-rates.
[1985-02-13] Now that that is a very real situation, they are saying: "Well, when it gets to $20 we're going to have some real problems.
[1985-02-13] Maybe we can dispose of that issue quickly, if you haven't changed your opinion.
[1985-02-13] To slow money down from the rapid growth rates of December and January would require a considerable increase in interest rates, which I don't want to see, particularly in view of the precarious situat
[1985-03-26] We have been making an allowance in this current reserve period; even though $600 million is in there for excess reserves, we've been thinking of it as somewhat higher and not rushing in to take out w
[1985-05-21] It seems to me that the growth in GNP right now is too low, and that there is a downside risk.
[1985-05-21] Having said that, I would favor alternative B with a tilt toward "A." By that I mean that I would be willing to relax borrowing a little below Jerry's recommendation and more in accord with the borrow
[1985-05-21] I think what you're observing is the interest sensitivity of M1.
[1985-07-10] You hear about layoffs in high-tech companies or one or two of the computer firms and you get the impression that employment is dropping, net; and yet you look at the data and [don't see it].
[1985-07-10] I am aware that it is necessary for the staff in its presentation of materials to make an assumption about [money growth for] the rest of 1985 and for 1986.
[1985-07-10] But there are other parts of the economy--autos, for example--that are doing well and as I talk to people about next year they continue to think they are going to have a good year next year.
[1985-07-10] I can visualize something slower than this; I can even visualize a recession over this time horizon.
[1985-08-20] If I may comment on this: The idea of shortening [maturities] is that they are more liquid and investors can get out more rapidly, which is a concern.
[1985-08-20] In terms of a policy statement, we'd accept [unintelligible] depending upon what we do and given this uncertainty.
[1985-08-20] [We could have] a great increase of credibility with the monetarists in the short run and if the economy plunges into recession or we have a great financial crisis, we will suffer an enormous loss of
[1985-10-01] If there were extreme changes in the value of the dollar one way or the other, I think that we ought to move aggressively.
[1985-10-01] It's nothing we can measure very precisely, but it seems to me that in the '80s there has been some backtracking in the very same kinds of forces that led to an economizing of money in the '60s and '7
[1985-11-05] but I think now their view is that the fiscal impasse will remain an impasse.
[1985-11-05] That's essentially a delayed reaction to the very steep decline because from here on out we have a gradual move.
[1985-12-17] One thing you could think of is that in a deflationary period, financial assets become more "valuable" than physical assets, whereas in an inflationary period it's vice versa.
[1985-12-17] But there's a long time until the next meeting; and if the dollar should start strengthening in the exchange markets, I would lead off with a cut in the discount rate.
[1985-12-17] Mr. Chairman, form the perspective of the Sixth District, things are looking considerably better than they did a month ago.
[1985-12-17] Well, of course, the same complaint can be made of nominal GNP that Bob made about prices.
[1985-12-17] The leading relationships in the '80s, which I am not at all sure are as systematic as the monetarists would have us believe, show up best for M1 and less so for M2.
[1985-12-17] You could put it on the line after the first sentence, Mr. Chairman, saying "taking account of the impact of the a discount rate action should one be taken," or something like that.
[1985-12-17] I think you just put your finger on the key issue: What it is going to do from now on.
[1985-12-17] After all, this is the most serious effort that has been made in a great many years to move consistently toward a balanced budget.
[1986-02-12] It sounds like what we really have is something below the $300-$400 million range you are suggesting.
[1986-02-12] We will release the record of policy actions for December in a couple of days, so we are going to release some interesting numbers one day and some interesting history the next day.
[1986-02-12] I will just make one observation with respect to the energy situation and how it may impact my District.
[1986-02-12] Well, Korea is one of these non-OPEC developing countries; therefore, you might expect that, to some extent, to give them a somewhat better picture.
[1986-02-12] I have forgotten what the original base was but it was probably at least that size.
[1986-02-12] I don't detect any policy difference between those ways of expressing it; I don't know if somebody else does.
[1986-02-12] The difference is a tenth and when push comes to shove, to be consistent with the Administration, at the end of the report we will just add a tenth to whatever anybody gives us.
[1986-04-01] Well, my instincts tell me that sentence probably should be symmetrical even though 7 weeks is a long time.
[1986-05-20] A more active mode in which to put it is to take one example, one Wayne took: If we see a positive desirability of doing it if we can get something out of the [other countries], that is one possibilit
[1986-05-20] It would not necessarily indicate that people are going to be using these [funds] for transaction purposes.
[1986-07-09] We should say we are going to monitor M1 and we are going to monitor debt, but we are not going to set ranges for either of them.
[1986-07-09] Not only has our situation gotten a little worse, we expect it to deteriorate even further and possibly at a bit faster pace.
[1986-08-19] I can't entirely exclude a move, but the straight answer to your question is: I wouldn't count on it purely because of [concern about] exchange rate movements.
[1986-08-19] They finally, and maybe belatedly, have come to the conclusion that they just can't compete [unintelligible].
[1986-08-19] Isn't one possibility just to maintain the $300 million and when a discount rate change occurs, if it does, to revisit the issue of reserves at that time?
[1986-09-23] I have no doubt of the volume this could involve should it never involve buying, just rolling over what we have.
[1986-09-23] I think the give-back will show up, particularly in the first quarter.
[1986-11-05] Are there any indicators that support the slowing in state and local spending to that extent?
[1986-12-16] It's a shade weaker than we had built into the forecast, but not much.
[1986-12-16] Presumably, the directive will get interpreted in that light anyway, which [unintelligible] arguments.
[1986-12-16] Well, you can argue the opposite on the basis of your knowledge.
[1986-12-16] One would be associated with stable interest rates and the other would be associated with volatile interest rates.
[1986-12-16] So, while there is not anything really to brag about openly, we are going to go along and gradually improve.
[1986-12-16] Well, [unintelligible] you're right about how the rest of the world is behaving.
[1986-12-16] It is our sense that the level of that spending is now quite high.
[1986-12-16] Although I favored [a tilt] last time, I feel a bit more strongly about it this time.
[1987-02-11] My principal concern is that we should warn them that under those circumstances, which may or may not eventually occur, we expect a pretty low Ml.
[1987-02-11] We are going to be evaluating changes as to whether or not they are appropriate.
[1987-02-11] And some worry, especially in the Japanese case, that they are really taking a terrible beating in their manufacturing sector now.
[1987-02-11] I think my forecast for the CPI is 100 basis points higher than it was last year after I had been here 7 days.
[1987-02-11] That's one of my language changes here: not just passively "could" but "should.
[1987-02-11] Well, it's unusual and I would resist it ordinarily on the basis that we normally use quarters, but that great distortion at year-end--
[1987-02-11] So, one can fold in the new revisions in an orderly way and they wouldn't have the impact that they had in that December period.
[1987-02-11] We'll come back with [specific] language; I think it needs a little massaging.
[1987-02-11] But our model also has a somewhat stronger picture of the economy than the Greenbook forecast; if you were to plug in something akin to the Greenbook forecast I think you'd get something comfortably w
[1987-03-31] We could push for a higher level of borrowing for two weeks and before you know it the exchange market would be out there and not have any understanding that that was going on and the funds rate would
[1987-03-31] In neither Germany nor Japan do you have a sense that policy is out ahead of the adjustment process; it's being forced by the exchange rate
[1987-03-31] But even if our trading partners don't make those moves, if the dollar were to fall somewhat more I'd be prepared to go ahead unilaterally on our own.
[1987-03-31] With respect to the prominence of the exchange rate in the directive we would favor not changing it.
[1987-05-19] And I've never gotten a really satisfactory explanation of which one makes the most sense.
[1987-05-19] The problem is that I don't know what you can tell them right now because we have inside [information].
[1987-05-19] Well, it seems to me that a $400 million borrowing assumption should go with the discount rate move to give you "C.
[1987-07-07] I also have a question about the consumption expenditures, which I think look on the low side, particularly for 1988.
[1987-08-18] The third reason is that I just don't see that the economy is currently boiling.
[1987-08-18] I don't know if this is a typical result of this type of activity.
[1987-08-18] But that certainly is one of the areas where a surprise would be less shocking to us.
[1987-09-22] I, personally, would go along with those vague notions of Governor Johnson on the issue of not fighting the world to try to get $600 million in this maintenance period, because it may be a futile ende
[1987-09-22] Again, when you look at house prices, there too, the evidence suggests that, at least in many markets, there's still a pretty robust demand at these interest rates.
[1987-09-22] So there is not much mobility, despite the fact that we pay somewhat higher wages, because the real cost of living for someone moving in and buying a house is almost impossible.
[1987-09-22] Employment, for example, is very consistent with the national numbers.
[1987-11-03] I would like to comment briefly on Jerry Corrigan's concern about the high level of debt, which has been one of my favorite themes also.
[1987-11-03] And I would remove the next sentence after the semicolon completely.
[1987-12-16] I'm not sure I caught the gist of his comments correctly, but [unintelligible].
[1987-12-16] I have no real borrowing number because I don't see how we can decide on that.
[1987-12-16] But it was a politically determined structure of reserve requirements.
[1987-12-16] With regard to operating procedures, I would stay with our current stance of trying to stabilize the funds rate over the next few weeks in the 6-3/4 - 6-7/8 percent area.
[1987-12-16] And if you look at the Greenbook, the next quarter's GNP is down 1.1 percent: consumption is negative; durables and nondurables are negative; industrial production is down to a 1.0 percent increase; h
[1987-12-16] The optimism is also in contrast to what I would almost call a barrage of visits and letters that have been coming in here during the last couple of weeks and days.
[1987-12-16] I understand what you said, but the only question I have is: If there is a seasonal component to seasonal borrowing of any sort, why have it in there?
[1987-12-16] If that was the policy, then this morning I presume we should have gone in immediately, acting to keep it at 6-3/4 percent.
[1987-12-16] And I'd do it under the umbrella, or the smokescreen, of the year-end uncertainty.
[1988-02-10] I'm sort of working this in reverse, but let me ask for a motion to ratify Peter Sternlight's transactions
[1988-02-10] Yes, especially if Don thinks that the numbers are coming in a little higher anyway.
[1988-03-29] If we don't get that, then I think we are going to get the inflation forecast that my own staff is turning out, which is very similar to yours.
[1988-06-30] [The intervention sales also were undertaken] to show some resistance to the rise in the dollar, so as not to let it get to levels which are simply going to be unsustainable--because service problems
[1988-06-30] The asymmetric language indicates the direction in which the Desk would be leaning without necessarily acting.
[1988-06-30] If we go for alternative III and it turns out to have to be reversed, too, you would be in the same position.
[1988-06-30] So, on the wage front, once again I say there's nothing yet, but you do get the feeling that something is out there.
[1988-06-30] What Jerry is recommending is that we are actually stating the targets--specifically, alternative III--and instead of having some language around it about uncertainty and how the targets may be change
[1988-06-30] You've got a point on the reserve thing, but on the rates, the funds rate has basically led all the other short rates.
[1988-06-30] Everyone is commenting explicitly that while the wage data don't show this, there's a subliminal sense of changing wage demand pressures.
[1988-08-16] If you look at the various components of GNP, we continue to have the best progress in the export sector and the investment sector, and that's exactly the way it should be.