yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2004-01-01] the economy appeared to be continuing to expand at a moderate pace that was likely to be rapid enough to gradually reduce margins of underutilized resources.
[2004-01-01] As you may know, the interest rate that we target is the federal funds rate, the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans.
[2004-01-01] This increase was slower than a year earlier, as core PCE price inflation (which excludes changes in consumer food and energy prices) moved down to 1.
[2004-01-01] The corresponding depreciation in other countries currencies will result in a gradual increase in the foreign currency price of U.S. exports, compared to the prices of foreign produced goods.
[2004-01-01] the committee also examined projections for gdp growth and cpi inflation based on the assumptions that the official interest rate remained constant at either 4.5% or 4.75%.
[2004-01-01] but there was a risk that the committee had underestimated the potential impact.
[2004-01-01] in the cbi distributive trades survey, the balance of retailers reporting positive annual growth in sales volumes had fallen to +17, from +26 in february.
[2004-01-01] however, members anticipated that sales would pick up again, partly in response to an anticipated rebound in incentives.
[2004-01-01] While participants generally felt that the pace of underlying productivity growth remained robust, careful attention would need to be paid to developments regarding unit labor costs and profit margins
[2004-01-01] although the stock of broad money had fallen again in december, its velocity remained well below the rates prevailing in the late 1990s.
[2004-01-01] The December employment report showed that job growth had slowed appreciably, and other indicators also pointed to emerging weakness in the labor market in the intermeeting period.
[2004-01-01] Japan enjoyed effective price stability through most of the 1980s.
[2004-01-01] real consumption had increased by 0.8% in july, following a fall of 0.4% in june.
[2004-01-01] As we gain experience with the enhanced forecasts, we will continue to evaluate how best to promote stability of both prices and employment.
[2004-01-01] But, again underscoring an earlier point, this tightness of the labor market has not manifested itself in ongoing escalation of wage inflation.
[2004-01-01] the annual inflation rate of the government consumption deflator had fallen to 7.8%, from 8.2% in q3.
[2004-01-01] a25 on the expenditure side of the accounts, real household consumption (including that of non profit institutions serving households) had risen by 0.6% in 2004 q3.
[2004-01-01] the slowing in loan growth was concentrated mainly in real estate credits and was due partly to heavy securitizations.
[2004-01-01] However, making significant use of this option would bias credit flows in the direction of depository institutions and, if the volume of these loans were large enough, could affect the interest rates
[2004-01-01] for the services sector, the british chambers of commerce (bcc) survey’s balance of business confidence regarding profitability had risen to +47 in 2003 q4, from +40 in q3, the highest level since 199
[2004-01-01] nevertheless, many firms evidently remained slow to expand hiring, in part because of rising benefit costs.
[2004-01-01] About two years after the onset of the financial crisis, the ECI moved up slightly in 2010 and then remained essentially flat at an annual growth rate of 2 percent over a five-year period between 2010
[2004-01-01] residential construction activity remained at a high level, evidently supported in part by recent declines in mortgage interest rates.
[2004-01-01] the gfk consumer confidence balance had fallen slightly in june, with a decline in the reported willingness to make a major purchase.
[2004-01-01] For example, Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei (2003) have used modern financial theory to construct a model of the Treasury yield curve that closely links the behavior of real GDP and a few key interest rates.
[2004-01-01] the most striking development in the past month had been the sharp rise in the price of oil: up over 17% in sterling terms.
[2004-01-01] Theory also teaches that the increase in the rate of return on capital--even if generated by a rise in the growth rate of technical change--ultimately requires an increase in real market interest rate
[2004-01-01] This policy preference was based on expectations of growth in business activity at a pace averaging in the vicinity of the economy's potential, a perception among the members that the risks to such an
[2004-01-01] Although the unemployment rate is around a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation.
[2004-01-01] a4 the sterling effective exchange rate had risen by 0.3%, to 106.2.
[2004-01-01] In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal.
[2004-01-01] Although the economy has indeed strengthened over the past few quarters, job growth has been anemic and considerable slack persists in labor markets.
[2004-01-01] The increase in upside risks to domestic demand and the diminution of foreign risks together suggest that risks to the outlook are more balanced today than they had been for the preceding two years.
[2004-01-01] longer-term nominal spot interest rates had risen modestly over the past month in the united kingdom, the united states and the euro area.
[2004-01-01] a42 cpi inflation had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 1.3% in february.
[2004-01-01] The Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster price stability and promote sustainable growth in output.
[2004-01-01] the preview of the royal institution of chartered surveyors (rics) survey showed_ that the sales-to-stock ratio had fallen, while the net balance of estate agents reporting price increases had fallen
[2004-01-01] The Committee's accompanying statement noted that economic growth had slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market.
[2004-01-01] However, it is not yet clear how high we will need to raise the federal funds rate and how much time will pass before we begin to see inflation moving back down in a consistent and lasting way.
[2004-01-01] Industrial production picked up in response to the advance in final demand and a slowdown in the runoff of excess inventory stocks.
[2004-01-01] There are, however, some problems with this story as the principal explanation for the favorable inflation performance.
[2004-01-01] The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers.
[2004-01-01] the recent increase in crude oil and gasoline prices would push up inflation temporarily.
[2004-01-01] It would have been difficult for the Committee to put forward a 7 percent unemployment goal when the current program started and unemployment was 8.1 percent; this would have involved a lot of uncerta
[2004-01-01] This was also an era when the principal mortgage lenders, savings and loans, were sometimes constrained from satisfying mortgage demands by binding Regulation Q ceilings that eroded their deposit base
[2004-01-01] Faust and others, 2006) and appear to have a strong effect on foreign equity indexes as well.2 In contrast, the effects of foreign short-term rates on U.S. asset prices appear to be relatively weaker.
[2004-01-01] but there was some tentative evidence that consumer spending might have moderated during the quarter: the cbi distributive trades survey suggested some easing in march, consumer confidence had fallen
[2004-01-01] For example, given the starting point for the outlook, the forecasts will trace out a path for the economy to preserve or reestablish maximum employment and price stability that will reflect FOMC part
[2004-01-01] in their discussion of economic developments across the nation, a number of committee members noted some slippage in business and consumer confidence from the high levels reached late last year.
[2004-01-01] there was little news on pay pressures – which remained subdued – or on the degree of tightness in the labour market.
[2004-01-01] the cips services survey had pointed to rising output prices in may: the average prices charged index rose to 54.6, from 53.5 in april.
[2004-01-01] Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced.
[2004-01-01] however, recent cpi data had been surprisingly weak, which might suggest that the competitive pressures on margins were stronger than the committee had realised.
[2004-01-01] a37 the cips employment survey for june had suggested continued overall employment growth.
[2004-01-01] An extreme version of this view is that bubbles probably do not exist--that rational market processes always price assets at their fundamental value.
[2004-01-01] at this meeting the committee engaged in a broad-ranging discussion of its communication practices.
[2004-01-01] For example, Kozicki and Tinsley (2001) show that it is far easier to make sense of the term structure of Treasury yields if one assumes that expectations about long-run inflation adjust in a reasonab
[2004-01-01] The first is what to do about supply shocks, like large increases in oil prices, which tend to increase both inflation and unemployment.
[2004-01-01] subsequently, higher-than-expected inflation data, remarks by the chairman that were viewed as pointing to future rate increases, and the depreciation of the dollar all led market participants to pric
[2004-01-01] While overall employment conditions, the buildup of household net worth, and access to financing would bolster consumer expendi- tures, members also cited a number of limiting factors.
[2004-01-01] As a policymaker, I'd like to think that well-executed monetary and fiscal policies--each focused importantly on their respective long-run goals--played some role in creating economic conditions that
[2004-01-01] There are also asymmetric price effects from cost shocksâ€”prices go up very quickly but often tend to come down more slowly, as consumers slowly learn that the bottlenecks have gone away.
[2004-01-01] As you can see, transforming the information available from published statistics into concepts useful for assessing the consequences of monetary policy is, in fact, quite complex.
[2004-01-01] in foreign exchange markets, the dollar appreciated against most major currencies over the intermeeting period, and it also gained against an index of the currencies of other major u.s. trading partne
[2004-01-01] earnings growth excluding bonuses had been 3.6% in the three months to november, down 0.1 percentage points on the three months to october.
[2004-01-01] In light of asset market developments over the intermeeting period, which in large part appeared to reflect heightened expectations among investors that the Federal Reserve would undertake additional
[2004-01-01] An understanding of a likely long-run level of the equilibrium real rate is useful, even though the level is not directly observable, because it provides a general sense of the level that would, over
[2004-01-01] Looking beyond the near term, the members anticipated that as the prevailing uncertainties began to diminish, the economy's resiliency abetted by broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal polices and
[2004-01-01] Expectations of greater and longer-lasting slack in labor and product markets than anticipated earlier had led to downward revisions to forecasts of wage and price inflation.
[2004-01-01] a number of policymakers were concerned that such an assertion could unduly constrain future adjustments to the stance of policy should the evidence emerging in coming months suggest that an appreciab
[2004-01-01] Even so, in the absence of major overhangs in inventories of business equipment and consumer durables, and given favorable conditions in financial markets, members believed that a resumption of modera
[2004-01-01] Jorgenson, Ho, and Stiroh use a similar methodology and find a range from a little less than 1-1/2 percent to about 3 percent with a central tendency of around 2-1/4 percent.5 These estimates are clea
[2004-01-01] In keeping with the practice at meetings when the Committee establishes its long-run ranges for growth of the money and debt aggregates, the members of the Committee and the Federal Reserve Bank presi
[2004-01-01] Inflation expectations that currently appeared by various measures and survey results to be essentially flat or even to have declined a bit were reinforcing the factors holding down price increases.
[2004-01-01] While recognizing the improvement in a number of indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions since the fall, many members indicated that further improvement in the outlook for the labo
[2004-01-01] Accordingly, while the weight of current economic output is probably only modestly higher than it was a half century ago, value added, adjusted for price change, has risen well over threefold.
[2004-01-01] in contrast, the halifax house price index had risen by 2.2% in january.
[2004-01-01] The implication is that monetary policy is already well positioned to slow the expansion.
[2004-01-01] About the same time, Board staff developed the so-called P* (P-star) model, based on M2, which used the quantity theory of money and estimates of long-run potential output and velocity (the ratio of n
[2004-01-01] Such a policy would clearly have near-term costs: It would slow the expansion in demand, damp the creation of new jobs, and keep inflation lower than it otherwise would be.
[2004-01-01] it suggested that annual corporate services price inflation had fallen to 2.9% in q4, from 3.1% in q3.
[2004-01-01] This was a key reason why currency crises of the past few decades were so costly: Sharp depreciations of the exchange rate boosted the domestic-currency value of foreign debt and wreaked havoc with go
[2004-01-01] For inflation, we can use the 12-month change in core PCE prices, a measure of the current underlying rate of inflation.
[2004-01-01] The early days of stabilization policy in the 1950s taught monetary policymakers not to attempt to offset what are likely to be temporary fluctuations in inflation.15 Indeed, responding may do more ha
[2004-01-01] members saw both downside and upside risks to prospects for inflation.
[2004-01-01] Participants agreed that the longer-run normal federal funds rate was likely lower than in the past, in part because of secular forces that had put downward pressure on real interest rates.
[2004-01-01] The key to explaining why price stability promotes stability in both output and employment is the realization that, when inflation itself is well-controlled, then the public's expectations of inflatio
[2004-01-01] anecdotal reports from business contacts about capital spending plans were indicative of appreciable further acceleration in business expenditures on a widening range of capital goods.
[2004-01-01] in the distribution sector, annual rpiy goods price inflation had been lower than the inflation in distributors’ weighted costs for most of the period since 1999, possibly reflecting a structural sque
[2004-01-01] the implied path of sterling, us dollar and euro official interest rates had flattened significantly since the august inflation _report, apparently in response to weaker perceived global growth prospe
[2004-01-01] but other factors might also have been important, including a slowing in the growth rates of both housing and net financial wealth, and temporary effects such as wet weather in june and reduced incent
[2004-01-01] the gdp revisions indicated that consumption growth had been slightly weaker in 2003 q4 and investment growth somewhat stronger than previously thought.
[2004-01-01] the chartered institute of purchasing and supply (cips) surveys of business activity in manufacturing and services had both fallen in june but remained at healthy levels.
[2004-01-01] the incoming new business index had risen slightly, to 60.6, the highest balance since may 1997.
[2004-01-01] For example, if financial market participants thought that the Federal Reserve were not dedicated to maintaining long-run price stability, they would be less willing to hold dollar-denominated assets
[2004-01-28] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2004-01-28] One would really have to argue that the bubble is in the bond market and not in the stock market, which raises interesting inflation expectations.
[2004-01-28] So I was just going to ask this complicating question of you, Governor Ferguson: What does greater flexibility in assessing the risks mean in terms of which direction you want to see flexibility?
[2004-01-28] I don't put down a coherent forecast when I prepare for our meetings.
[2004-01-28] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 27-28, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washi
[2004-01-28] But the major problem is that they are not anything in particular because we haven't a clue what the underlying assumptions are.
[2004-01-28] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-01-28: target=-1.10 bp, path=+42.70 bp
[2004-01-28] I support your recommendation on the rate and on the change in language.
[2004-03-16] I don't expect much to happen, but in my cost-benefit analysis, the downside risks get a little more weight than the upside risks.
[2004-03-16] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-03-16: target=+4.10 bp, path=-17.80 bp
[2004-03-16] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 16, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington
[2004-03-16] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2004-03-16] First, I can support your recommendation, although I had a marginal preference for the wording "about equals.
[2004-05-04] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-05-04: target=+0.90 bp, path=+5.10 bp
[2004-05-04] Inflation is lower, and I think the output gap is disappearing but is disappearing slowly.
[2004-05-04] Jack, of course, is the President of the Atlanta Fed, which is the Sixth Federal Reserve District.
[2004-05-04] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2004-05-04] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 4, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D
[2004-06-30] To our mind, that may explain why the pass-through seems to be higher lately.
[2004-06-30] But, you know, when I read my own briefing I realize what it means--that this problem is going to continue to grow.
[2004-06-30] [Laughter] But it is hard to see anywhere on earth, with the possible exception of some Asian countries, where the governments themselves perceive the scope of using fiscal policy in that way, whether
[2004-06-30] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-06-30: target=+0.40 bp, path=-1.70 bp
[2004-06-30] But even after you account for the fundamentals, there's a part of the increase that is hard to explain.
[2004-06-30] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 29-30, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingt
[2004-06-30] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/4 percent. The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of m
[2004-08-10] Of course, there are reasons to think that uncertainty might have risen; we've just talked about the oil prices, terrorist threats, and so on.
[2004-08-10] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee August 10, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingto
[2004-08-10] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-1/2 percent. The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of m
[2004-08-10] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-08-10: target=+4.30 bp, path=+7.50 bp
[2004-09-21] The problem here is that there is a wide consensus that this is the time we want the devaluation of the dollar to happen, not later when the economy may be in a weakened structural situation.
[2004-09-21] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-09-21: target=+2.50 bp, path=-2.90 bp
[2004-09-21] I don't recall that the G-5 said anything of great significance.
[2004-09-21] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-3/4 percent. The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of m
[2004-09-21] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 21, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washin
[2004-11-10] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2 percent. The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monet
[2004-11-10] If the word "measured" continues to be part of our statement, I think, as others have said, it will end up tying our hands.
[2004-11-10] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee November 10, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washing
[2004-11-10] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-11-10: target=+3.00 bp, path=-7.60 bp
[2004-11-10] If I think about where we were six months ago, I thought it was extraordinarily unlikely that we were going to remain at 1 percent on the funds rate.
[2004-12-14] GSS factor decomposition for 2004-12-14: target=+1.70 bp, path=-1.80 bp
[2004-12-14] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 14, 2004 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washing
[2004-12-14] Release Date: December 14, 2004 For immediate release The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/4 percent. The Committee
[2005-01-01] Energy prices were moderating noticeably in response to lower worldwide demand, and core price inflation remained subdued.
[2005-01-01] There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year.
[2005-01-01] That's why I said that flexibility is also an important characteristic of monetary policy during a time of financial turmoil.
[2005-01-01] There is, in my view, a reasonable prospect that each of these two effects will reverse their contributions to inflation over the next couple of years and that balance between them will be important i
[2005-01-01] Most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations had been little changed in recent months.
[2005-01-01] Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial market implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate to
[2005-01-01] Very low inflation and deflation pose qualitatively similar economic problems, though the magnitude of the associated costs can be expected to increase sharply as deflationary pressures intensify.