yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2024-01-01] the bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the cpi is now near its historical norm.
[2024-01-01] members noted that global financial conditions had eased over prior months.
[2024-01-01] if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further.
[2024-01-01] the market’s reassessment of the outlook for inflation in the euro area and the united states had led to the one-year inflation-linked swap (ils) rates one year ahead declining broadly in tandem on bo
[2024-01-01] staff review of the financial situation the market-implied path for the federal funds rate moved down over the intermeeting period.
[2024-01-01] to reflect the view of the members, the chairman formulated a proposal on the bank's view and put it to a vote.
[2024-01-01] cpi inflation moderated to 2.7% in june after increasing in may.
[2024-01-01] the fair value of banks' longer-term fixed-rate assets, including loans, increased in the fourth quarter as longer-term interest rates decreased, though banks remained vulnerable to significant increa
[2024-01-01] the kpmg/rec survey had indicated that staff availability had increased further in may.
[2024-01-01] economic growth is expected to strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024.
[2024-01-01] the council will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained.
[2024-01-01] in canada, economic growth likely picked up to about 1½% through the first half of this year.
[2024-01-01] the indeed job postings suggested that this trend would continue in the second quarter.
[2024-01-01] in this situation, the year-on-year rate of increase in the amount outstanding of bank lending had been at around 3.5 percent.
[2024-01-01] upside risks to inflation included the heightened geopolitical tensions, which could raise energy prices in the near term, and extreme weather events, which could drive up food prices.
[2024-01-01] meanwhile, currencies in emerging economies and crude oil prices were generally unchanged.
[2024-01-01] the average interest rates on new loans to firms and new mortgages had been unchanged in april, at 5.2% and 3.8% respectively.
[2024-01-01] this was also seen to be consistent with the anticipation that a gradual easing of financial conditions would support economic activity, including much-needed investment to boost labour productivity a
[2024-01-01] regarding the outlook, as overseas economies grew moderately, exports were projected to return to an uptrend, mainly due to a pick-up in global demand for it-related goods.
[2024-01-01] the consumption activity index (cai; real, travel balance adjusted) had declined for the january-march quarter of 2024, due to the effects of mild winter weather and suspension of production and shipm
[2024-01-01] as the outlook for demand remained subdued, with vacancies continuing to fall and nominal pay growth easing, the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the target in the medium term were to the d
[2024-01-01] governing council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and cor
[2024-01-01] members observed that such pricing was indicative of investors expecting benign economic outcomes.
[2024-01-01] it was suggested that, with wage growth having begun to moderate as expected, the focus should shift to productivity developments.
[2024-01-01] however, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than gdp, which means excess supply has increased.
[2024-01-01] at the same time, mr lane underlined that the high level of uncertainty and the still elevated price pressures evident in the domestic inflation, services inflation and wage growth indicators meant th
[2024-01-01] this has particularly affected young people and newcomers to canada.
[2024-01-01] they concurred that there remained high uncertainties surrounding japan's economic activity and prices, including developments in overseas economic activity and prices, developments in commodity price
[2024-01-01] however, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs.
[2024-01-01] even if activity and sentiment in the manufacturing sector were slowly improving, firms continued to face structural headwinds that were unrelated to the ecb’s monetary policy and needed to be tackled
[2024-01-01] cpi inflation is expected to return to close to the 2% target in the near term, but to increase slightly in the second half of this year, to around 2½%, owing to the unwinding of energy-related base e
[2024-01-01] one member said that, given the results of this year's annual spring labor-management wage negotiations to date, achievement of the price stability target seemed to have come in sight to some extent,
[2024-01-01] members shared the recognition that developments in the 2024 annual spring labor management wage negotiations would be important when examining the intensification of the virtuous cycle between wages
[2024-01-01] one member expressed the view that, considering the current economic and price developments, allowing eligible counterparties to borrow at a fixed rate of 0 percent for four years was too generous an
[2024-01-01] this reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease.
[2024-01-01] financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn.
[2024-01-01] developments in euro area corporate bond markets had mirrored those in equity markets, with spreads of investment-grade financial corporate bonds and non-financial corporate bonds in the euro area, ex
[2024-01-01] with broad price pressures continuing to ease and inflation expected to move closer to 2%, governing council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by a further 25 basis points.
[2024-01-01] members also agreed that the statement should convey that the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and that it does not expect it will be appro
[2024-01-01] global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the july monetary policy report (mpr).
[2024-01-01] overall, the bank forecasts gdp growth of 0.8% in 2024 and 2.4% in 2025, roughly unchanged from its october projection.
[2024-01-01] over 2025 and 2026, real gdp growth was expected to rise about in line with potential, leaving the output gap roughly flat in those years.
[2024-01-01] a different member noted that one option was to reduce the bank's purchase amount of jgbs based on the supply and demand balance of jgbs, with the aim of restoring market functioning.
[2024-01-01] also, credit dynamics still appeared to suggest a soft landing, given increasing evidence that loan growth had reached a trough.
[2024-01-01] in canada, economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply.
[2024-01-01] overall, it was generally considered that a recession in the euro area remained unlikely.
[2024-01-01] headline inflation had fallen in august to levels previously seen in the summer of 2021 before the inflation surge, and there were signs of easing pressures in the labour market, with wage growth and
[2024-01-01] with regard to the euro area economy, members widely noted that the medium-term outlook discussed during the previous governing council meeting and entailed in the june 2024 eurosystem staff projectio
[2024-01-01] there were many other reasons why monetary policy was still working its way through the economy, with research suggesting that there could be years of lagged effects before the full impact dissipated
[2024-01-01] the bank expects cpi inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of this year, move below 2½% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025.
[2024-01-01] they emphasised that, as this decision was an operational one, it had no implications for the stance of monetary policy, nor did it have a bearing on the board’s current approach to bond holdings acqu
[2024-01-01] housing credit growth had gradually increased, suggesting households had been more willing to borrow.
[2024-01-01] and the revisions to historical estimates of consumer spending meant that consumption growth, while still weak, had been more resilient than previously assessed.
[2024-01-01] at the same time, the tightness in the labour market continued to diminish gradually, with employers posting fewer job vacancies.
[2024-01-01] participants' views on current conditions and the economic outlook in conjunction with this fomc meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gdp growth, the
[2024-01-01] most measures of the increase in nominal wages from a year earlier continued to trend down, including the 12-month change in average hourly earnings for all employees, which was 4.1 percent in may, 0.
[2024-01-01] twelve-month cpi inflation fell to 3.4% in february from 4.0% in january and december, a little below the expectation in the february monetary policy report.
[2024-01-01] the latest eurostat release showed that the rate of increase in compensation per employee had declined by 0.3 percentage points to stand at 5.2% in the third quarter, with the contribution of unit pro
[2024-01-01] the forecasts had also placed significant weight on the downside risks to consumption.
[2024-01-01] core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3½%, slowed to just over 3% in february, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum.
[2024-01-01] turning to inflation expectations, in the survey of professional forecasters (spf), the centre of the distribution of long-term inflation expectations had remained around 2% since inflation had peaked
[2024-01-01] in total, between two and three rate cuts were now priced in by the end of the year, up from two cuts immediately after the june meeting.
[2024-01-01] wage growth is showing some signs of moderating, but remains elevated.
[2024-01-01] the latest agents’ intelligence indicated that pay settlements over the second half of the year were, as expected, coming in at lower rates compared to h1, and 2025-expected settlements might be in a
[2024-01-01] meanwhile, oil prices are about $10 per barrel lower than was assumed in the october monetary policy report (mpr).
[2024-01-01] annual inflation had eased slightly to 2.5% in june, with both goods price inflation and services price inflation unchanged, at 0.7% and 4.1% respectively.
[2024-01-01] governing council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and c
[2024-01-01] the council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation, particularly the persistence in underlying inflation.
[2024-01-01] it was added that month-on-month figures showed that core inflation had again been on the rise for the last couple of months, which called for continued caution on the inflation outlook.
[2024-01-01] population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest.
[2024-01-01] however, real private domestic final purchases (pdfp)—which comprises pce and private fixed investment and which often provides a better signal than gdp of underlying economic momentum—posted a solid
[2024-01-01] the unemployment rate has risen to 6.4%, with employment continuing to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work.
[2024-01-01] in addition, members agreed to continue to reduce the federal reserve's holdings of treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities.
[2024-01-01] in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
[2024-01-01] total pce prices increased 2.5 percent over the 12 months ending in january, while core pce price inflation—which excludes changes in energy prices and many consumer food prices—was 2.9 percent over t
[2024-01-01] china’s economy is growing modestly, with weak domestic demand partially offset by strong exports.
[2024-01-01] global financial conditions have eased, with lower bond yields, buoyant equity prices, and robust corporate debt issuance.
[2024-01-01] this further confirmed that profits had started to mitigate the inflationary effects of wage increases.
[2024-01-01] business investment is projected to recover gradually after considerable weakness in the second half of last year.
[2024-01-01] at the same time, the current distribution of inflation expectations was still skewed to the upside.
[2024-01-01] moreover, a different member said that it was desirable for the bank to discontinue the system in which the eligible counterparties could borrow an amount equivalent to twice as much as the net increa
[2024-01-01] the latest inflation numbers were therefore to be treated with caution, and it was too early to be fully confident that inflation would return to target.
[2024-01-01] us gdp growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in january.
[2024-01-01] the annual growth in broad money as measured by m3 had risen to 1.3% in april, from 0.9% in march, as the euro area’s growing current account surplus and non-resident demand for euro-denominated secur
[2024-01-01] at the same time, it was underlined that the evidence that monetary policy transmission was working was to be welcomed and remained consistent with a soft landing.
[2024-01-01] second, investors did not foresee a scenario in which inflation would return to below-target levels.
[2024-01-01] some participants pointed to reports from contacts that firms could not as easily pass on price increases to consumers or were making less frequent price adjustments than they had in recent years.
[2024-01-01] at the same time, price pressures in some important parts of the economy—notably shelter and some other services—are holding inflation up.
[2024-01-01] in canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024.
[2024-01-01] they continued that, nevertheless, as these developments would lead to an increased tightening of labor market conditions during the course of the economic recovery, wage growth was expected to increa
[2024-01-01] monthly changes in pce prices since april had been smaller than those seen in the first three months of the year.
[2024-01-01] the strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.
[2024-01-01] moreover, cutting interest rates by 25 basis points offered greater protection against downside shocks than keeping them at their current levels.
[2024-01-01] the bank has revised up its forecast for global gdp growth to 2¾% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026.
[2024-01-01] inflation had risen to 2.9% in december as some of the past fiscal measures to cushion the impact of high energy prices dropped out of the annual inflation rate, although the rebound was weaker than e
[2024-01-01] the member continued that significant progress therefore had been made toward achieving the target.
[2024-01-01] third, with the price stability target of 2 percent, the bank would conduct monetary policy as appropriate, in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions,
[2024-01-01] it was also observed that the moderate recovery in consumer confidence was still from low levels and that the saving ratio was increasing.
[2024-01-01] especially when comparing with the inflation outlook contained in the september 2023 staff projections, the subsequent downside inflation surprises had diminished the need for nominal wages to catch u
[2024-01-01] with inflation now back around the 2% target, governing council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% r
[2024-01-01] however, the view was also expressed that near-term risks were now balanced, with reference made to recent rebounds in survey-based indicators and some hard data.
[2024-01-01] on the other hand, adjusting awe data on a cpi-weighted basis indicated that pay growth could be moderating at a slower pace than the headline data were suggesting.
[2024-01-01] it had then increased slightly for april relative to that quarter, with a pick-up in automobile sales.
[2024-01-01] it was pointed out that the share of firms citing labour shortages as a constraint on output remained high but had been falling, pointing to less labour market tightness.
[2024-01-01] second, the conflict in the middle east had resulted in rising freight costs and a lengthening of delivery times owing to the recent attacks on freight ships in the red sea and the gulf of aden.
[2024-01-01] the canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in april’s monetary policy report (mpr).
[2024-01-01] household spending, including both consumer purchases and housing, has been weak.
[2024-01-01] growth would also benefit from a resilient labour market, with the unemployment rate declining further from historically low levels.
[2024-01-01] this followed ecb communication that had countered the aggressive market pricing of a rate-cutting cycle starting as early as march 2024.
[2024-01-01] the next projections in june would allow a more comprehensive analysis of the main risks and their implications for price stability.
[2024-01-01] the deterioration in cre credit quality sparked investor concerns about the health of a few small u.s. and foreign banks over the intermeeting period.
[2024-01-01] at this meeting, the committee voted to maintain bank rate at 5%.
[2024-01-01] with us inflation having repeatedly surprised on the upside since the federal reserve’s pivot in december 2023, market pricing in the united states had also gradually shifted towards fewer and later r
[2024-01-01] for the partial reinvestments until the end of 2024, operational modalities similar to those used during the partial reinvestments of the app could be applied.
[2024-01-01] that said, the rate of increase in the cpi had been in the range of 2.0-2.5 percent recently, mainly on the back of the fact that, despite waning, the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of c
[2024-01-01] the bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are expected to slow to about 2½% in the second half of 2024 and ease gradually through 2025.
[2024-01-01] a different member pointed out that, as often happens at the beginning of the first and second halves of the fiscal year, revisions in services prices had been confirmed in april 2024, the beginning o
[2024-01-01] some members pointed out that, given, for example, post-pandemic changes in the economic structure, it was possibly becoming difficult for statistics to accurately capture developments in consumption
[2024-01-01] (1) yield curve control a) the bank decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for market operations for the intermeeting period.
[2024-01-01] it was also noted that the overall economic outlook for the euro area was more concerning and the projected recovery was fragile.
[2024-01-01] participants discussed the still-elevated rate of housing services inflation and commented on the uncertainty regarding when and by how much lower readings for rent growth on new leases would pass thr
[2024-01-01] members stressed the importance of es holders – in particular, banks – reflecting on the implications of the prospective framework for their own liquidity management operations as the stock of reserve
[2024-01-01] conditions in the labour market were expected to ease further over the coming year or so, to levels consistent with sustained full employment.
[2024-01-01] nevertheless, some participants observed that portions of the labor market, such as the health-care sector and in less urban areas, remained very tight.
[2024-01-01] on 31 july, the stock of uk government bonds held for monetary policy purposes was £690 billion.
[2024-01-01] a broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease.
[2024-01-01] goods price inflation and services price inflation had been 0.7% and 4.1% respectively in both may and june.
[2024-01-01] in the mpc’s latest most likely, or modal, projections, cpi inflation was expected to fall temporarily to the 2% target in 2024 q2 before increasing again in q3 and q4.
[2024-01-01] members concurred that euro area banks had demonstrated their resilience, had high capital ratios and had become significantly more profitable over the past year.
[2024-01-01] the overall quarterly profile of measures of underlying inflation remained in line with the picture of gradually diminishing price pressures.
[2024-01-01] participants noted disappointing readings on inflation over the first quarter and indicators pointing to strong economic momentum, and assessed that it would take longer than previously anticipated fo
[2024-01-01] meanwhile the growth in loans to households continued to weaken in annual terms.
[2024-01-01] the bank now forecasts global gdp growth of 2½% in 2024 and 2¾% in 2025, following 2023’s 3% pace.
[2024-01-01] a different member expressed the opinion that it was appropriate for the bank to decide at this meeting to continue with the negative interest rate policy, considering that terminating the yield curve
[2024-01-01] one of the reasons why domestic inflation had started to stabilise recently, in spite of the continued rapid increase in wages, might be that firms were moderating their markups.
[2024-01-01] wage agreements in the euro area’s largest economy accounted for the bulk of the latest tracker information, as agreements had been reached in the wholesale, retail, chemical and construction sectors,
[2024-01-01] moreover, policy rates were seen as likely to remain in restrictive territory for some time, while the effects of the present restrictive policy stance would continue to be felt even after the start o
[2024-01-01] starting with the global outlook, mr lane noted that global economic activity was still subdued but there were some signs of improvement.
[2024-01-01] on the other hand, the view was taken that structural weakness could be amplified by high interest rates.
[2024-01-01] on rrp usage was also likely supported by typical month-end dynamics.
[2024-01-01] with regard to price developments, members concurred with the assessment by mr lane that the latest data were a reflection of the bumpy profile of headline inflation expected in 2024.
[2024-01-01] monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
[2024-01-01] [6] as for the bank's conduct of nimble market operations, it had reduced the amount of its scheduled jgb purchases, for example, mainly taking into account interest rate developments and supply and d
[2024-01-01] the euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth.
[2024-01-01] many members shared the assessment that services prices continued to increase moderately, partly due to the moderate wage increases thus far.
[2024-01-01] with regard to economic activity in the euro area, members concurred with the assessment presented by mr lane and acknowledged the weaker than expected growth outcome in the second quarter.
[2024-01-01] data for the second quarter would also be available – including gdp growth, compensation per employee, profit margins and productivity – alongside two more hicp releases, as well as monetary indicator
[2024-01-01] funding conditions more generally for australian financial and non-financial corporations remained favourable.
[2024-01-01] the member then added that, in order to proceed deliberately along the path of monetary policy normalization in response to developments in economic activity and prices, the bank needed to decide on t