yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2005-01-01] Prices, interest rates, stock prices, and other signals produced by market economies to encourage the distribution of productive resources have no inherent moral content.
[2005-01-01] The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices.
[2005-01-01] Rapid responses by businesses to changes in free-market prices have muted much of the tendency for unsold goods to back up, or unmet needs to produce shortages.
[2005-01-01] Labor market conditions had improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate; taken as a whole, labor market indicators suggested that the underutilization of labor resources was c
[2005-01-01] There is, in fact, an unusual discrepancy between the unemployment and capacity utilization rates, compared to previous expansions
[2005-01-01] On balance over the intermeeting period, interest rates on private instruments registered small mixed changes while yields on longer-term Treasury securities declined significantly.
[2005-01-01] Although participants considered it unlikely that the economy would reenter a recession, many expressed concern that output growth, and the associated progress in reducing the level of unemployment, c
[2005-01-01] Such second-round effects are likely to be quite limited as long as the rise in the relative price of energy does not lead to a rise in long-run inflation expectations, as has largely been the case in
[2005-01-01] Job gains had been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low.
[2005-01-01] Table 2 Distribution of Employment and of Displaced Workers by Industry Category Industry Employment Displaced Workers Restructuring 23.1 42.2 Nonrestructuring 76.9 57.8 Total 100 100 Source: Displace
[2005-01-01] The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges.
[2005-01-01] With respect to inflation, the netting of the crosscurrents suggests a modest increase in inflation in 1998, albeit from a steadily downward-revised and very low rate in 1997.
[2005-01-01] The effect can be accentuated by the temporary parking in liquid accounts of the proceeds from the more-frequent turnover and refinancings that often accompany a house price boom.
[2005-01-01] once duties and petroleum products were excluded, output price inflation was broadly stable at around 1½%.
[2005-01-01] Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined.
[2005-01-01] Rather, members agreed that inflation was likely to moderate in coming quarters,
[2005-01-01] However, given the good pace of economic expansion since then, it would stretch credulity to believe that capacity growth has accelerated at a sufficient pace to produce a large degree of slack at thi
[2005-01-01] Recent FOMC Decisions and the New Monetary Policy Framework At our most recent FOMC meetings, the Committee made important changes to our policy statement that upgraded our forward guidance about the
[2005-01-01] The effect of a productivity slowdown on employment growth is likewise ambiguous in the medium term.
[2005-01-01] The 5.4% unemployment rate in 1996 was the lowest annual rate since 1988 and before that since 1973.
[2005-01-01] Indeed, in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, four out of five countries in this group are expected to post inflation rates between 1 percent and 3 percent this year.
[2005-01-01] The more inflation rose, the more people came to expect it to remain high, and they built that belief into wage and pricing decisions.
[2005-01-01] the average selling price of existing homes rose in the twelve months ending in september at about the same rapid clip as a year earlier, but the average selling price of new homes rose more slowly ov
[2005-01-01] On balance, most participants still expected inflation to moderate later this year and in 2009.
[2005-01-01] Indeed, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined in July that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the deepest
[2005-01-01] The changes to the policy statement that we made over the fall bring our policy guidance in line with the new framework outlined in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strate
[2005-01-01] Mr. Plosser noted that the Committee could not afford to wait until there was clear evidence that inflation expectations were no longer anchored, as by then it would be too late to prevent a further i
[2005-01-01] that had been reflected in the changes in the gdp growth and cpi inflation forecasts discussed above.
[2005-01-01] taken together, the indicators did not point to a marked weakening of gdp growth between q1 and q2, though the balance of evidence suggested that the outcome might, if anything, be a little softer tha
[2005-01-01] The Committee took these actions to provide a somewhat more accommodative policy in response to muted inflation pressures and the risks to the outlook I mentioned earlier.
[2005-01-01] the prices of a number of intermediate goods, including a wide range of petrochemical products and building materials, were subject to upward pressure, reflecting high crude oil prices, production dis
[2005-01-01] A soft labor market will keep a lid on the growth in the cost of employing workers.
[2005-01-01] Equity prices in most foreign countries were up moderately since the January FOMC meeting.
[2005-01-01] Term premiums could be lower when inflation expectations are well anchored or the macroeconomy is less volatile.
[2005-01-01] Most projected somewhat slower growth through next year, and a smaller reduction in unemployment, than they had projected in April.
[2005-01-01] excluding food and energy, inflation appeared to have moderated slightly from its pace in the early part of the year.
[2005-01-01] A second set of circumstances in which deflation or very low inflation may pose significant problems is potentially more relevant to the current U.S. economy.
[2005-01-01] The major reason for these significant differences in spending out of household wealth is doubtless that, while home prices do on occasion decline, large declines are rare; the general experience of h
[2005-01-01] the rise in longer-term real interest rates and some widening of private credit spreads in recent months were seen as perhaps having a little restraining effect on the investment outlook.
[2005-01-01] they also concurred that it would be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
[2005-01-01] overall, the december 2005 contract had declined by around 20 basis points since the committee’s previous meeting, and around 50 basis points since the may inflation report.
[2005-01-01] Inflation in 1996, measured by the chain price index for GDP or the core CPI, was the lowest in 30 years.
[2005-01-01] cpi inflation had risen further above target in august, to 2.4%.
[2005-01-01] The effects of the saving outflow may thus have been felt disproportionately on U.S. interest rates and the dollar.
[2005-01-01] Indeed, over the past century, by far the smallest part of the growth in America's real gross domestic product reflects increased physical product measured in bulk or weight.
[2005-01-01] A third factor underpinning longer-run prospects for growth is the sustained strong uptrend in labor productivity.
[2005-01-01] Although members generally saw little risk that maintaining very low short-term interest rates could raise inflation expectations or create instability in asset markets, they noted that it was importa
[2005-01-01] in their discussion of current conditions and the economic outlook, meeting participants observed that incoming data over the intermeeting period hinted at possible upside risks for inflation and down
[2005-01-01] In response to an unanticipated movement in spending and hence the quantity of money demanded, a small variation in interest rates would be sufficient to bring money back to path but not to correct th
[2005-01-01] In particular, we may need additional public communications about the conditions that constitute substantial further progress since December toward our broad and inclusive definition of maximum employ
[2005-01-01] With regards to inflation, the median inflation projection of FOMC participants is 2.4 percent this year and declines to 2 percent next year before moving back up to 2.1 percent in 2023.
[2005-01-01] Indeed, scattered evidence dating back to ancient Rome and before reflects the same order of interest rate magnitude, not a one percent interest rate nor 200 percent.
[2005-01-01] Although higher energy and other costs had the potential to add to inflation pressure, core inflation had been relatively low in the preceding few months and longer-term inflation expectations remaine
[2005-01-01] the u.s. international trade deficit narrowed in may as the value of exports of goods and services rose slightly and the value of imports declined, partly reflecting a sharp drop in the value of oil i
[2005-01-01] on the first, recent bank analysis had implied that the oil price could have played a sizeable role in the recent increases in cpi inflation, through both direct and indirect channels.
[2005-01-01] Inflation averaging doesn't define how much above 2 percent is moderate and how long some value of elevated inflation should be tolerated.
[2005-01-01] Using more-conventional specifications of Phillips curves, the research at the Federal Reserve Board (Ihrig and others, 2007) and the OECD (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006), as well as Ball (2006), find
[2005-01-01] Job gains had remained solid, and the unemployment rate had stayed near its recent low.
[2005-01-01] Rather, central banks have learned over the years that their policies should be devoted to fostering macroeconomic balance and price stability.
[2005-01-01] With respect to this particular part of the District, Jack may discuss Florida's citrus crop, the relative health of the tourism industry, and trends in Florida real estate prices.
[2005-01-01] Although many participants remained concerned about downside risks attending the outlook for inflation, a majority of participants saw the risks to the outlook for inflation as balanced.
[2005-01-01] Indeed, just recently, the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee determined that the recession that began in March of last year ended in April, making it not only the
[2005-01-01] the governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate should be maintained at 4.75%.
[2005-01-01] The economy continued to perform well into 2007, with solid growth through the third quarter and unemployment remaining near recent lows.
[2005-01-01] The net effect could be steady, rising, or falling inflation--depending on whether productivity continues to accelerate and on how low the unemployment rate is driven in the process.
[2005-01-01] some members believed that the balance of risks to gdp growth was weighted slightly more on the downside in the second half of the forecast period.
[2005-01-01] Longer-term inflation expectations have moved much less than actual inflation or near-term expectations, suggesting that households, businesses, and market participants also believe that current high
[2005-01-01] Indeed, how will we measure inflation, and the associated financial and real implications, in the twenty-first century when our data--using current techniques--could become increasingly less adequate
[2005-01-01] although export growth was often erratic from quarter to quarter, the underlying picture was reasonably encouraging.
[2005-01-01] In response to the resulting high inflation, the Fed was obliged to raise interest rates, and the economy weakened.
[2005-01-01] First, if, as projected, core PCE inflation this year does come in at, or certainly above, 3 percent, I will consider that much more than a "moderate" overshoot of our 2 percent longer-run inflation o
[2005-01-01] agents’ reports continued to suggest that inward migration was playing a role in curbing labour shortages.
[2005-01-01] In practice, the Fed operates through a committee structure and considers the recommendations of a variety of monetary rules as we make monetary policy decisions.
[2005-01-01] With respect to the new framework itself, the statement now notes that the neutral level of the federal funds rate has declined relative to its historical average and therefore that the policy rate is
[2005-01-01] Rather than rely on Fed watchers employed by primary dealers to read the tea leaves of our daily interventions, we inform everyone, openly, and take responsibility for the level of short-term interest
[2005-01-01] The literature on this topic extends at least as far back as William Brainardâ€™s original paper on uncertainty and policy almost forty years ago.7 Brainardâ€™s analysis showed that if policymakers ar
[2005-01-01] That's particularly important, because the lags in the effect of policy on economic activity and prices mean that policy decisions are necessarily based on a view of the likely path for the economy ov
[2005-01-01] in its accompanying statement, the committee expressed its perception that, with appropriate monetary policy action, the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and pric
[2005-01-01] November 08, 2021 Flexible Average Inflation Targeting and Prospects for U.S. Monetary Policy Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Symposium on Monetary Policy Frameworks, The Brookings Institution, W
[2005-01-01] Unfortunately, I suspect that this call would often come so late in the day that, given the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism and uncertainty about the duration of bubbles, raising interest
[2005-01-01] Rather, it is that the underlying sources of productivity growth are very complex.
[2005-01-01] Mr. Broaddus dissented because he continued to believe that a modest tightening of policy would be prudent in light of the apparent persisting strength in aggregate demand for goods and services.
[2005-01-01] the aggregate inventory-sales ratio outside of motor vehicles likely edged up in the fourth quarter but remained within the range that had prevailed since the middle of last year.
[2005-01-01] There is no evidence to date that a strong labor market is putting excessive cost-push pressure on price inflation.
[2005-01-01] Lessons from Past Productivity Booms First, many of the technological innovations associated with past productivity booms were general purpose technologies (GPTs) with widespread applicability.
[2005-01-01] The emphasis was on providing currency and reserves to meet seasonal demands and on assisting banks in accommodating the credit needs of commerce and business.
[2005-01-01] On balance, core consumer price inflation was projected to remain subdued and quite possibly edge lower.
[2005-01-01] Productivity and TechnologyLet me now turn from the overall economic outlook to productivity and technology developments.
[2005-01-01] the expected volatility of the major equity indices implied by options prices had increased, possibly reflecting recent increases in historical volatility.
[2005-01-01] Financial markets seem to think the sameâ€”5-year breakeven inflation expectations are around 2.5 percent, and 5-year, 5-year-forward measures are around 2 percent, when adjusted for the difference be
[2005-01-01] Later I shall turn to concerns about imbalances in equity prices, the personal saving rate, the current account, and the household debt burden.
[2005-01-01] Rapid increases in healthcare and other insurance costs and the lagged passthrough of large increases in oil prices would tend to maintain upward pressure on prices.
[2005-01-01] In recent years, aggressive cost-cutting in the United States has been linked to greater emphasis on maximization of shareholder value and less on growth and diversification, which was more prominent
[2005-01-01] the information reviewed at this meeting suggested that, before the landfall of hurricane katrina on the gulf coast, expansion of economic activity had been solid, led by robust gains in housing and b
[2005-01-01] Indeed, such hearings used to be a regular feature in the weeks leading up to semiannual monetary policy hearings.
[2005-01-01] First, I will discuss the available empirical evidence from the United States on the effect of changes in asset prices on household consumption and business investment.
[2005-01-01] that is, the capacity utilization rate is lower than would have been expected, based on past experience, at the prevailing unemployment rate.
[2005-01-01] However, given the difficulty in distinguishing between changes in asset prices dominated by fundamental forces and those driven by non-fundamental forces, policymakers should not target asset prices
[2005-01-01] A second question is whether moving in this direction would matter much for the conduct of monetary policy in the United States.
[2005-01-01] A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts
[2005-01-01] the committee’s discussions focused on the news for consumption and investment.
[2005-01-01] members concurred that the statement should note that the expansion remained solid despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions.
[2005-01-01] Inflation is much too high, and I strongly believe that bringing inflation back to our target is a necessary condition for meeting the goals mandated by Congress of price stability and maximum employm
[2005-01-01] However, if real (or nominal) government spending is held constant, the surplus will rise over time as a share of GDP, putting downward pressure on the equilibrium real rate, offsetting, at least in p
[2005-01-01] Labor demand remained strong, and the labor market continued to be very tight.
[2005-01-01] Long-run price stability certainly is essential for achieving maximum employment.
[2005-01-01] The challenge is to set a strategy that respects this uncertainty, takes advantages of opportunities for better performance, while mitigating the risks of overtaxing the limits of sustainable producti
[2005-01-01] Under this interpretation, the lower line in the bottom panel of Figure 1 is an estimate of market inflation expectations over the next five years, and the upper line represents five-year forward expe
[2005-01-01] the increase might simply have reflected the normal volatility of these data.
[2005-01-01] Now with respect to the first objective, the rationale for maximizing employment is fairly obvious.
[2005-01-01] Unfortunately, from the point of view of both the analyst and the policymaker, the link between an asset's price and the structure of its return is hard to pin down, as it typically embodies complex f
[2005-01-01] November 01, 2006 Community Development Financial Institutions: Promoting Economic Growth and Opportunity Chairman Ben S. Bernanke At the Opportunity Finance Networkâ€™s Annual Conference, Washington,
[2005-01-01] Survey measures give us an idea of what the average household expects inflation to be in the coming years.
[2005-01-01] Inflation is a significant challenge for everyone, but it hits lower- and moderate-income people the hardest, since they spend a larger share of their incomes on necessities and often have less saving
[2005-01-01] The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
[2005-01-01] The threat to global economic growth and financial stability posed by the fiscal situation in some European nations sparked widespread flight-to-quality flows over most of the intermeeting period.
[2005-01-01] nominal treasury yields rose in line with the shift in the outlook for monetary policy.
[2005-01-01] the termination of some inducements to purchase motor vehicles was expected to retard expenditures on consumer durables in the latter part of this year.
[2005-01-01] Inflation continued to climb in June, reaching 9.1 percent as measured by the consumer price index.
[2005-01-01] hence consumption growth might pick up after the weakness around the turn of the year.
[2005-01-01] Less uncertainty about future inflation could lower the risk premiums on nominal Treasury bonds, lowering the risk-free interest rate.
[2005-01-01] However, in the past two decades, what constitutes money has been obscured by the introduction of technologies that have facilitated the proliferation of financial products and have altered the empiri
[2005-01-01] Key factors that influence consumer spending--including a low unemployment rate, ongoing gains in real labor compensation, and still elevated measures of households' net worth--were supportive of a pi
[2005-01-01] total car registrations had fallen further in february and private registrations had remained particularly weak.
[2005-01-01] Prominent among these risks were a possible intensification of strains in the euro zone, with potential spillovers to U. S. financial markets and institutions and thus to the broader U. S. economy; a
[2005-01-01] not enough to lower the unemployment rate, and labor productivity seemed to be trending sharply upward.
[2005-01-01] the picture from the surveys seemed consistent with reports from the bank’s regional agents.
[2005-01-01] Job gains had been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate had remained low.
[2005-01-01] the main news on gdp this month had been in the release of the national accounts, which had significantly revised both the estimated profile and the apparent composition of growth in recent years.
[2005-01-01] the new statement maintains our definition that the longer-run goal for inflation is 2 percent, it elevates the importanceâ€”and the challengeâ€”of keeping inflation expectations well anchored at 2 pe
[2005-01-01] There is, to be sure, no trade-off and hence no inconsistency between full employment and price stability in the long run.
[2005-01-01] interest rates on intermediate-term treasury securities rose in response to the revision to policy expectations, but longer-term yields were little changed over the intermeeting period.
[2005-01-01] The combination of a commitment to condition liftoff on the sustained achievement of our employment and inflation objectives with yield curve caps targeted at the same horizon has the potential to wor
[2005-01-01] On balance, however, the members generally believed that prospective trends in overall economic activity and the persistence of strong competitive pressures in most markets, including the effects of f
[2005-01-01] November 19, 2021 Perspectives on Global Monetary Policy Coordination, Cooperation, and Correlation Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the "Macroeconomic Policy and Global Economic Recovery" 2021 Asia E
[2005-01-01] Mr. Kocherlakota dissented because, in his view, the new forward guidance in the fifth paragraph of the statement would weaken the credibility of the Committee's commitment to its inflation goal by fa
[2005-01-01] The steepening of the yield curve was due mostly to sharply lower short- and intermediate-term forward rates, consistent with investors' apparently more pessimistic outlook for economic growth.
[2005-01-01] Labor cost increases had not turned up and core inflation continued to edge lower.
[2005-01-01] Financial markets are the channel through which our policy affects the economy, and asset prices contain valuable information about investors' expectations for the course of policy, economic activity,
[2005-01-01] Although inflation remained remarkably subdued and any increase in inflationary pressures likely would tend to emerge only slowly, the strength in demand had developed against the backdrop of financia
[2005-01-01] The Chairman testifies frequently before the Congress, with the one-year record being twenty-five appearances in 1995, although only seven were directly about monetary policy.
[2005-01-01] Now suppose that, in an economy experiencing a stable deflation, the central bank leadership announces a fixed inflation target but then makes no progress toward that target during a given period.