yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2018-01-01] conditions in the sydney and melbourne housing markets had continued to ease, following significant growth over preceding years.
[2018-01-01] it was important for communication to emphasise that the incoming data confirmed that the euro area economy was proceeding along a solid and broad-based growth path and underlined that risks surroundi
[2018-01-01] Although the initial offerings of these securities were well received, investor demand at the most recent sales was not as strong, a development consistent with the declines in the prices of non-agenc
[2018-01-01] The demand for commercial paper declined as prime money market mutual funds experienced large net outflows after the net asset value of one such fund fell below $1 per share.
[2018-01-01] exports had been on an increasing trend on the back of the firm growth in overseas economies.
[2018-01-01] the policy board approved unanimously the minutes of the monetary policy meeting of january 22 and 23, 2018 for release on march 14.
[2018-01-01] Also, the Committee will pay close attention to measures of inflation expectations to ensure that those expectations remain well anchored.
[2018-01-01] with regard to inflation expectations, two of the briefings presented findings that the longer-run trend in inflation, absent cyclical disturbances or transitory fluctuations, had been stable in recen
[2018-01-01] us and euro-area short rates were also little changed over the same period.
[2018-01-01] the bank will be monitoring the extent to which the usmca leads to more confidence and business investment in canada.
[2018-01-01] for example, manufacturing output had risen for the ninth consecutive month in january, whereas construction output – a series that was often revised substantially – was estimated to have fallen sharp
[2018-01-01] real gdp is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and next before slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2020.
[2018-01-01] The current range readily encompassed the growth rate seen likely to be associated with the members' forecasts for economic activity and prices.
[2018-01-01] it anticipated that, subject to incoming data confirming the medium-term inflation outlook, net purchases would then end.
[2018-01-01] by contrast, district reports regarding the construction sector were mixed, al­though here, too, some contacts reported that supply constraints were acting as a drag on activity.
[2018-01-01] most participants described labor market conditions as strong, noting that payroll gains had remained well above the pace regarded as consistent with absorbing new labor force entrants over time, the
[2018-01-01] nonetheless, the terms of trade were still expected to decline over the following two years, partly reflecting prospective increases in low-cost supplies of bulk commodities.
[2018-01-01] housing markets responded to new mortgage guidelines and other policy measures by pulling forward transactions to late 2017.
[2018-01-01] The course of underlying inflation pressures was more difficult to gauge, however.
[2018-01-01] with the increase in the caps on redemptions to be implemented beginning in october, reinvestment of treasury securities would occur almost exclusively in the middle month of each quarter in connectio
[2018-01-01] members noted that over the prior month, bond yields had declined slightly in most major markets and in australia, and had remained at generally low levels for both sovereign and corporate issuers.
[2018-01-01] year-ended growth in the wpi had picked up compared with the previous year across most industries and in all states and territories.
[2018-01-01] while modest by historical standards, that growth rate exceeded the diminished rate of supply growth of the economy, which was projected to be around 1½% per year.
[2018-01-01] the inflation data for the december quarter had been in line with the forecasts presented in the november statement on monetary policy.
[2018-01-01] in europe, concerns about the political situation in italy and its potential economic implications prompted a significant widening in risk spreads on italian sovereign securities.
[2018-01-01] however, escalating geopolitical and trade conflicts risk undermining the global expansion.
[2018-01-01] at the same time, there were indications that the euro area was moving away from reliance on external demand towards more domestic sources of expenditure, which should increase its resilience.
[2018-01-01] prices had responded to a range of supply factors, including the impact of us sanctions on russia affecting its aluminium production, as well as uncertainty related to trade policy.
[2018-01-01] credit market conditions for small businesses remained relatively accommodative despite sluggish credit growth among these firms.
[2018-01-01] on net, u.s. equity prices declined, corporate bond spreads widened, and nominal treasury yields rose.
[2018-01-01] it was recalled that the september 2018 ecb staff projections had incorporated a small acceleration in quarterly growth rates in 2019, compared with the profile for 2018, which could be revisited.
[2018-01-01] But in terms of just targeting growth, you know, I think—I actually think our dual mandate works very well, which is maximum employment and stable prices.
[2018-01-01] underlying inflation was expected to pick up towards the end of the year and to increase further in the medium term, supported by the ecb’s monetary policy measures, the ongoing economic expansion and
[2018-01-01] after depreciating sharply since the beginning of 2018, these economies' exchange rates had appreciated over the preceding couple of months.
[2018-01-01] meanwhile, exports are being buoyed by strong global demand and higher commodity prices.
[2018-01-01] household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines.
[2018-01-01] those increases had been more marked at shorter horizons, but five year inflation swap rates, five years forward, had risen to their highest level since 2010.
[2018-01-01] the overall effect on bank funding costs had been less than the rise in the cost of wholesale debt funding since february, in part because there had been little change in interest rates for retail dep
[2018-01-01] these members then expressed the recognition that it was therefore important for the bank to continue to engage in careful communication.
[2018-01-01] Some business contacts indicated that wage and price pressures were subdued; however, in one District, contacts pointed to rising wage pressures and labor shortages.
[2018-01-01] consistent with an economy operating with little slack, core measures of inflation have continued to edge up and are all now close to 2 per cent.
[2018-01-01] with regard to the outlook for monetary policy beyond this meeting, participants generally anticipated that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would most likely b
[2018-01-01] in the commodity market, crude oil prices had risen amid concern in particular over geopolitical risks in the middle east.
[2018-01-01] imports rose a bit, with increases in imports of consumer goods and automotive products, but imports of capital goods declined sharply from september's elevated level.
[2018-01-01] members observed that the increasing use of technology to replace manual effort in the finance sector and long-run increases in the quality and size of homes, as well as a greater number of dwellings
[2018-01-01] against the background of rising global inflationary pressures, a few central banks, including the federal reserve, had increased their policy rates in recent months, and the degree of monetary policy
[2018-01-01] compared with the september 2017 ecb staff projections, the outlook for real gdp growth had been revised up substantially over the projection horizon.
[2018-01-01] net trade was estimated to have contributed nearly half of uk growth during 2017.
[2018-01-01] core inflation had been close to the federal reserve's target in the united states, where demand was likely to have been boosted by the effects of recent reductions in corporate and personal income ta
[2018-01-01] The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months.
[2018-01-01] a number of advanced economies were growing at above-trend rates and were experiencing increasingly tight labour market conditions.
[2018-01-01] many members noted that labor market conditions remained tight, as evidenced, for example, by the fact that the active job openings-to-applicants ratio had maintained the high level that exceeded the
[2018-01-01] mining investment had declined further in the march quarter, as construction work at some liquefied natural gas (lng) projects neared completion.
[2018-01-01] the bank expects cpi inflation to fluctuate in the months ahead as various temporary factors (including gasoline and electricity prices) unwind.
[2018-01-01] expectations of inflation five years ahead in the spf for the second quarter of 2018 were unchanged at 1.9%.
[2018-01-01] as a result, the forecast for the unemployment rate had been revised lower and the forecast for wages growth had been revised slightly higher.
[2018-01-01] one member said that, in an environment where the projected rates of increase in the cpi turned out to be lower compared with the previous projections, it was clear that interest rates would be mainta
[2018-01-01] recent data show that labour market slack is being absorbed more quickly than anticipated.
[2018-01-01] across the advanced economies, unemployment rates had trended lower and surveys had suggested that more firms were facing labour shortages.
[2018-01-01] More information might provide a better sense of how the higher interest rates were affecting aggregate demand and perhaps also help--to a small degree--to shed light on the considerable uncertainties
[2018-01-01] the bank continues to monitor the extent to which strong demand is boosting potential, creating room for more non-inflationary expansion.
[2018-01-01] in canada, real gdp growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017.
[2018-01-01] the canadian economy continues to operate close to its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced.
[2018-01-01] at the same time, the point was made that wage indexation mechanisms had become significantly less important since the financial crisis in a number of countries.
[2018-01-01] the global economy continues to strengthen, with growth expected to average 3 1/2 per cent over the projection horizon.
[2018-01-01] In contrast, M3 growth slowed considerably in April after a robust March advance.
[2018-01-01] turning, in conclusion, to a more structural issue, mr cœuré referred to the year-end developments on the repo and the forex swap market.
[2018-01-01] global equity prices had dropped sharply in the days immediately prior to this policy meeting and measures of volatility such as the vix index had increased significantly.
[2018-01-01] in this respect, capital investment, firm creation, labour force participation, and hours worked are all showing promising signs.
[2018-01-01] on this basis, the staff noted that, as for japan, one option to consider would be that the bank specify uncertainties regarding economic activity and prices as the basis for judgment on the bank's po
[2018-01-01] in addition, one member noted that, although the momentum toward 2 percent inflation was maintained, it likely would take a certain amount of time to achieve the target.
[2018-01-01] As a further step in enhancing the clarity of our communications, the Committee recently decided to begin publishing information about participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy—that is,
[2018-01-01] (data on compensation per hour that reflected the comprehensive revision of the national income and product accounts by the bureau of economic analysis (bea) were not available at the time of the meet
[2018-01-01] Moreover, a change in the ranges might be misinterpreted as a signal of greater reliance on the broad monetary aggregates in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy.
[2018-01-01] in australia, the share of total income paid to workers in wages and salaries (the ‘labour share’) had risen over the 1960s and 1970s but had gradually declined since then.
[2018-01-01] on the basis of this assessment, mr praet proposed, at this stage, to keep monetary policy unchanged and to reconfirm all elements of the ecb’s forward guidance, including the sequencing.
[2018-01-01] In contrast, a few participants cautioned that, despite increases in market-based measures of inflation compensation in recent months and the stabilization of some survey measures of inflation expecta
[2018-01-01] the bank’s core measures of inflation all remain around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that is operating at capacity.
[2018-01-01] committee policy action in their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members judged that information received since the fomc met in june indicated that the labor market had continued t
[2018-01-01] however, trade conflict, particularly between the united states and china, is weighing on global growth and commodity prices.
[2018-01-01] this member continued that, to this end, it was appropriate for the bank to purchase jgbs so that yields on jgbs with maturities of 10 years and longer would broadly be lowered further.
[2018-01-01] More broadly, signs of a pickup in growth in economic activity in some AFEs and emerging Asian economies other than China also appeared to contribute to the improvement in sentiment in financial marke
[2018-01-01] as a result, household vulnerabilities are edging lower in a number of respects, although they remain elevated.
[2018-01-01] members noted that this would tend to increase liquidity and had been associated with a general decline in interest rates, which would help to offset the increased cost of finance associated with meas
[2018-01-01] temporary factors are causing volatility in quarterly growth rates: the bank projects a pick-up to 2.8 per cent in the second quarter and a moderation to 1.5 per cent in the third.
[2018-01-01] this is contributing to financial stresses in some emerging market economies.
[2018-01-01] however, if there were significant hysteresis effects, labour market slack may be less than suggested on the basis of these broader measures.
[2018-01-01] Some measures of inflation expectations were down notably over the intermeeting period.
[2018-01-01] a different member expressed the recognition that it was essential for the bank to aim to achieve the price stability target while gaining the public's understanding on the importance of overcoming de
[2018-01-01] at the same time, average longer-term inflation expectations had remained broadly unchanged, at 1.9%.
[2018-01-01] More fundamentally, however, the members believed that current growth in aggregate demand, should it persist, would continue to exceed the expansion of potential output and, by putting added pressure
[2018-01-01] other temporary factors pushing up inflation, such as past increases in gasoline prices and minimum wages, should fade in early 2019.
[2018-01-01] where unemployment continues to fall at a gradual pace as it has been since last September—and we have made some progress since last September
[2018-01-01] as in april, the projection incorporates an estimate of the impact of trade uncertainty on canadian investment and exports.
[2018-01-01] growth in household disposable income had picked up over 2017, partly reflecting the strength in employment growth over the course of the year.
[2018-01-01] as for prices, members concurred that the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi for all items less fresh food and energy was at around 0.5 percent, partly because price rises by firms continued to be
[2018-01-01] Against this backdrop, today the Federal Open Market Committee raised its policy interest rate by ¾ percentage point and anticipates that ongoing increases in that rate will be appropriate.
[2018-01-01] this suggested that there continued to be excess capacity in the labour market, as did indicators such as the underutilisation rate.
[2018-01-01] the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead stood at 1.7%.
[2018-01-01] if only supply shocks were considered when estimating potential output, possibly resulting from the positive impact of past structural reforms, there could be more spare capacity in the economy than w
[2018-01-01] once they take effect, these increases would imply a small rise in the average outstanding variable housing loan rate, unwinding about half of the decline observed in the average housing loan rate ove
[2018-01-01] a remark was made that a gap appeared to be emerging between favourable economic conditions and a policy stance that remained in a crisis configuration.
[2018-01-01] And I assure you that my colleagues and I will continue to conduct monetary policy without regard to political considerations.
[2018-01-01] financial market volatility has resurfaced and some emerging markets are under stress but, overall, global financial conditions remain accommodative.
[2018-01-01] in foreign exchange markets, a persistent and broad strengthening of the euro since the december monetary policy meeting prevailed.
[2018-01-01] the july projection also incorporates the estimated impact of tariffs on steel and aluminum recently imposed by the united states, as well as the countermeasures enacted by canada.
[2018-01-01] the bank of canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ¾ per cent.
[2018-01-01] measures of underlying inflation remained low by historical standards, although they had shown a marked improvement since the trough in 2016.
[2018-01-01] however, both exports and investment are being held back by ongoing competitiveness challenges and uncertainty about trade policies.
[2018-01-01] term premia for sovereign debt and exchange rate volatility also remained low in the major markets.
[2018-01-01] the monetary policy measures decided by the governing council in october 2017 and their communication appeared to have had a favourable market impact.
[2018-01-01] following the above discussions, members discussed the description on the outlook for prices in the outlook report.
[2018-01-01] exports also faltered, partly owing to transportation bottlenecks.
[2018-01-01] the bank rate is correspondingly 1 ¾ per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ¼ per cent.
[2018-01-01] the euro area labour market remained strong, with employment growing by 0.4% quarter on quarter in the first quarter of 2018 and the unemployment rate declining to 8.5% in april.
[2018-01-01] inflation is then expected to remain close to the 2 per cent target through the end of 2020.
[2018-01-01] the strength in chinese crude steel production had supported imports of high-quality iron ore and coking coal.
[2018-01-01] with demand and supply currently broadly in balance, a margin of excess demand was expected to build during the forecast period, feeding through into higher growth in domestic costs than had been seen
[2018-01-01] participants generally reported that their business contacts were optimistic about the economic outlook.
[2018-01-01] recent data suggest housing markets are beginning to stabilize following a weak start to 2018.
[2018-01-01] this had been most evident in sydney, where housing prices had continued to decline across most segments of the market.
[2018-01-01] in determining the appropriate pace of rate increases, governing council will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household
[2018-01-01] in canada, gdp growth in the first quarter was weaker than the bank had expected, but should rebound in the second quarter, resulting in 2 per cent average growth in the first half of 2018.
[2018-01-01] in the euro area, the fall in german yields had reflected, in part, the effect of safe-haven flows and an easing in growth momentum in the euro area.
[2018-01-01] many members, however, pointed out that investors' risk sentiment could worsen again if trade friction between the united states and china intensified.
[2018-01-01] further ahead, the economic expansion and the associated significant absorption of economic slack were expected to contribute to a gradual convergence of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2% ov
[2018-01-01] several participants cited statistical evidence for the united states that inversions of the yield curve have often preceded recessions.
[2018-01-01] (2) the japanese economy was recovering at a moderate pace and was expected to continue to do so.
[2018-01-01] this member commented that, therefore, it was likely that the rise in costs eventually would be passed on to firms' sales prices.
[2018-01-01] job gains were strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate stayed low.
[2018-01-01] nevertheless, the available data suggested that private investment growth had picked up but remained low.
[2018-01-01] it was also argued that there could be larger spillovers from weaker external demand to domestic demand.
[2018-01-01] wages have picked up but are rising by less than would be typical in the absence of labour market slack.
[2018-01-01] But in many countries around the Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL world that are important commodity exporters, the decline we’ve seen in oil prices has had a depressing effect on their growth, t
[2018-01-01] by contrast, in the united states they had increased by more than 20 basis points.
[2018-01-01] But also we want to see inflation move up back to our 2 percent objective over the medium term, and so seeing above-trend growth and continuing tightness—greater tightness in labor and product markets
[2018-01-01] a first 10-basis point increase in the ecb’s deposit facility rate was currently priced in for the fourth quarter of 2019, while survey-based information suggested a somewhat earlier timing, which mig
[2018-01-01] a few members then said that, although exports were likely to maintain their moderate growth for the time being, it was important to continue monitoring them carefully as there were some developments
[2018-01-01] Beyond 2017, the forecast for real GDP growth was little revised.
[2018-01-01] spare capacity had continued to be absorbed, especially in the major advanced economies.
[2018-01-01] in the basic policies for economic and fiscal management and reform to be completed this summer, it would indicate the timing of achieving a primary surplus and its plan to underpin the achievement.
[2018-01-01] In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indi
[2018-01-01] they shared the view that there had been no sign so far of excessively bullish expectations in asset markets or in the activities of financial institutions.
[2018-01-01] slower economic growth in the first quarter primarily reflects weakness in two areas.
[2018-01-01] this progress reinforces governing council’s view that higher interest rates will be warranted over time, although some monetary policy accommodation will still be needed to keep inflation on target.
[2018-01-01] total u.s. consumer prices, as measured by the pce price index, increased 2 percent over the 12 months ending in march.
[2018-01-01] Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand would help limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judged that some inflation risks remained.
[2018-01-01] members concurred that business fixed investment continued on an increasing trend with corporate profits and business sentiment maintaining their improving trend.
[2018-01-01] members noted that this appeared to have been mainly due to softening demand from investors in an environment of declining housing prices in some markets, although it was likely that there had also be
[2018-01-01] Some business executives reportedly believed that, with aggregate demand expanding robustly and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar putting upward pressure on import prices, a degree of "pr