yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2000-12-19] That is, the overall hedging market at the short end of the yield curve is so much deeper than at the current longer end of the yield curve, the 10-year, that the result is this exaggerated swing.
[2001-01-01] in this regard, members referred to earlier unsustainable rates of investment by many high-tech firms that were now obliged to retrench despite still high rates of growth in the demand for their produ
[2001-01-01] it was surprising, particularly given the recent downward revisions to consensus forecasts, and seemed to indicate a fair degree of market optimism that the us economy would recover strongly in the se
[2001-01-01] First, the expansion of trade may cause domestic inflation to depend to a greater extent on the prices of imported goods--not only because imported goods enter the consumer basket or (in the case of i
[2001-01-01] I will then discuss the prospects for adjusting monetary policy in the manner needed to sustain a strong job market
[2001-01-01] Productivity is a cyclical variable that typically falls in recessions.
[2001-01-01] the core component of the cpi also accelerated in january and on a year-over-year basis, but by lesser amounts than did the total index.
[2001-01-01] both the consensus economics and treasury surveys for rpix inflation in 2001 had been unchanged at 1.9%, the lowest level since 1997.
[2001-01-01] The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic growth will proceed at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges c
[2001-01-01] Homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownershi
[2001-01-01] Their forecasts of consumer price inflation for the year, as measured by the PCE chain-type price index, were centered in a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent, with a full range of 1-1/4 to 1-3/4 percent
[2001-01-01] the twelve-month growth rate of ofcs’ m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had slowed, to 10.6%.
[2001-01-01] the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at factor cost was estimated to have risen to 3.1% in 2001 q1 from 1.6% in 2000 q4.
[2001-01-01] by contrast, the bcc’s balance on similar investment intentions in the manufacturing sector had fallen from +16 to +11 in q3.
[2001-01-01] a54 the sterling eri had been broadly stable since the committee’s previous meeting, rising by 0.5% to 105.0.
[2001-01-01] another possible explanation was simply that the effects of us events on uk confidence were lagged.
[2001-01-01] to further its long-run objectives, the committee in the immediate future seeks conditions in reserve markets consistent with reducing the federal funds rate to an average of around 3-1/2 percent.
[2001-01-01] in contrast, those firms which had reported a slower pace of expected inflation this year had suggested that competitive pressures and productivity had been the main causes.
[2001-01-01] the governor invited members to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate should be reduced by 25 basis points to 4.50%.
[2001-01-01] Additionally, by depressing perceived rates of return abroad, the weakness in foreign demand explains a considerable portion of the run-up in the dollar, as shown in figure 4.
[2001-01-01] the sterling exchange rate had been 0.7% above the august inflation report projection.
[2001-01-01] despite the sharp liquidation of inventories in the manufacturing sector in february and march, the aggregate inventory-shipments ratio for that sector edged higher in march to a level well above that
[2001-01-01] Still, core consumer price indices remained relatively damped and had risen only a little over the last year, especially when measured by the PCE chain-price index, and that suggested underlying price
[2001-01-01] this depreciation of the eri had reflected a 1.9% depreciation of sterling against the euro and a 1.7% appreciation of sterling against the us dollar.
[2001-01-01] while the prevailing negative influences on household spending might spill over a bit more to housing activity over the year ahead, there were few current developments in housing markets that might be
[2001-01-01] The strength in corporate profits in the first quarter not only impressed economists, but it also impressed investors, who drove stock prices up earlier this year.
[2001-01-01] The stock market soared, and--remarkably enough--core inflation moderated.
[2001-01-01] Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.
[2001-01-01] I think it would be naive to assume that circumstances would not arise in which the central bank faced short-term choices between inflation stability and economic or financial stability.
[2001-01-01] in this regard the risks of rising inflation could not be dismissed, and while those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert risi
[2001-01-01] but the strength of the dollar need not be inconsistent with the falls seen in us equity markets, since the exchange rate was a relative price and equity prices had fallen sharply as well in many euro
[2001-01-01] Profit margins have been running a little higher this year than last, aided importantly by strong growth in labor productivity.
[2001-01-01] On the one hand, an inverted yield curve could indicate an increased risk of recession; on the other hand, the low level of term premiums in recent years--reflecting, in part, central bank asset purch
[2001-01-01] construction new orders had fallen by 8.0% in the three months to january compared to the previous three months.
[2001-01-01] the information reviewed at this meeting suggested that economic activity continued to expand very slowly in the first quarter.
[2001-01-01] at the start of the committee meeting itself, members were made aware of information that had subsequently become available, and that information is included in this annex.
[2001-01-01] The strong support from monetary policy, together with fiscal stimulus, should turn the K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery that delivers full employment, as Mike McCracken wou
[2001-01-01] if anything, house prices had accelerated recently, and mortgage approvals had risen further.
[2001-01-01] These forecasts and forward guidance had a significant effect on raising market interest rates, even though we did nothing with our primary policy tool, the federal funds rate, in December 2021.
[2001-01-01] a20 uk equities in all capitalisation groups had risen since the committee’s january meeting.
[2001-01-01] If independence is also defined in terms of assuring the ability and commitment of the central bank to achieve price stability, this commitment can be protected by an explicit price stability mandate
[2001-01-01] Staff Review of the Financial Situation On balance, financial conditions in the United States remained supportive of growth in economic activity and employment: The expected path of the federal funds
[2001-01-01] These inferences are supported by some empirical evidence.10 On the other hand, the increased liquidity of home equity may lead consumer spending to respond more than in past years to changes in the v
[2001-01-01] since then, industrial production had declined by 1.2% in may, and by over 5% over the past year.
[2001-01-01] another is the growing literature on the interaction of learning, inflation dynamics, and monetary policy.
[2001-01-01] the sectoral breakdown of business investment had indicated that private manufacturing investment had fallen by 13.9% in q3, the largest fall since records began, while private service sector investme
[2001-01-01] Productivity change for this output concept has increased even more than for traditional concepts.
[2001-01-01] some members placed considerable emphasis, given the projection of persistent trade deficits, on the potential upside risks to inflation from the possibility of a sterling depreciation.
[2001-01-01] the working-age employment rate had been broadly unchanged over the past six months.
[2001-01-01] If episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, it has significant implications for risk management and, by imp
[2001-01-01] the number of approvals for house purchase in july had been 111,000, the highest figure since the series was redefined in 1997.
[2001-01-01] The Committee directs the Desk to purchase agency debt, agency MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and e
[2001-01-01] President George dissented because she believed that an unchanged setting of policy was appropriate based on the incoming data and the outlook for economic activity over the medium term.
[2001-01-01] The vote encompassed approval of the statement below to be released at 2:00 p. m. : "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activit
[2001-01-01] Although a spike in energy prices eroded real income growth in the second quarter, there were solid gains in wages and salaries.
[2001-01-01] but many agencies had reported continued strength in output of oil and gas equipment, consumer goods and construction-related products.
[2001-01-01] One prominent example is with semiconductor producers and their need to dramatically alter the mix of production to meet demands of the high-tech and automotive industries.
[2001-01-01] the institute of management services (ims) index had risen in january.
[2001-01-01] manufacturing, construction, and the service sector recorded large payroll declines in april, and gains elsewhere were small.
[2001-01-01] despite weaker data on particulars delivered, leading indicators such as mortgage approvals data pointed to relatively stable conditions in the housing market.
[2001-01-01] Also, the recent evidence could be interpreted as indicating that the surprisingly sharp decline in measured inflation in 2003 exaggerated the drop in the underlying rate of inflation.
[2001-01-01] the outlook for the world economy had deteriorated, which reinforced their assessment that world activity would grow less rapidly than the best collective judgment reflected in the committee’s februar
[2001-01-01] After a short coffee break, we have a staff presentation on the alternatives we face in setting monetary policy.
[2001-01-01] a53 costs of materials had generally been falling and the greatest cost concern for most companies had continued to be increases in insurance premia and in regulation.
[2001-01-01] On the more positive side, there were no signs that the pace of productivity gains was currently leveling out and no evidence of rising longer-term inflation expectations.
[2001-01-01] In discussing the effect of labor market conditions on inflation, a number of participants expressed skepticism about recent studies suggesting that long-term unemployment provides less downward press
[2001-01-01] equity prices, both in the united kingdom and internationally, had fallen sharply in february, reversing the rises in january.
[2001-01-01] The weakness in commodity prices and the appreciation of the dollar also continued to weigh on activity in the energy and agricultural sectors.
[2001-01-01] I will then turn to three challenges our dynamic economy is posing for policy at present: First, what would the consequences of a sharp rise in the price of oil be for the U.S. economy?
[2001-01-01] Staff Review of the Financial Situation The decision by the FOMC to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at the December meeting and its retention of the "extended period" langua
[2001-01-01] the revisions to the household and corporate sector financial balances were broadly offsetting, such that overall the private sector financial deficit had been little changed.
[2001-01-01] the rise in bank borrowing had coincided with a decline in other external finance.
[2001-01-01] Partly because of high demand for Treasury securities, the overnight repo rate for Treasury general collateral was near zero for much of the period, and failures to deliver Treasury securities reached
[2001-01-01] First, such a development would ultimately call for an upward revision to the targets for money growth, so that the money growth targets would remain consistent with an unchanged target for the inflat
[2001-01-01] non-farm payrolls had risen by 268,000 in january, following a (downwardly revised) increase of 19,000 in december.
[2001-01-01] Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pac
[2001-01-01] in the united states, the november senior loan officer survey showed an increased net balance of banks reporting tighter credit conditions for loans to commercial and industrial companies compared wit
[2001-01-01] the pace of economic expansion in the euro area softened somewhat further in the fourth quarter, as consumer spending remained weak.
[2001-01-01] taken together with the rise in the twelve month growth rate of divisia money between 2000 q4 and 2001 q1, the household money and credit data were consistent with a robust outlook for consumption gro
[2001-01-01] First, policymakers should continuously update their estimates of the NAIRU and the output gap, using all available information, particularly the realizations of unemployment, output, and inflation.
[2001-01-01] Also, in the view of a number of participants, the economy was possibly producing in the neighborhood of its potential, and the persistent strength in spending of late suggested that resource markets
[2001-01-01] the expansion of domestic nonfinancial debt increased in november and december (latest data), reflecting greater business borrowing, perhaps to finance growing inventories and smaller contractions in
[2001-01-01] a40 manufacturing contacts had continued to report a further slight strengthening in overall demand from export markets.
[2001-01-01] If a range is selected, questions will arise about the differing implications of movements of inflation inside the range and outside the range and, in the absence of explicitly identifying the mid-poi
[2001-01-01] annual growth in manufacturing unit wage costs had fallen to 2 0% in june from 2 2% in may a36 whole-economy headline earnings growth, as measured by the average earnings index (aei), had risen by 0.2
[2001-01-01] I would like to address two aspects of the issue of underemployment of minorities: first, the implications of ignoring the potential that already exists and, second, the need to encourage young people
[2001-01-01] Household expenditures on new homes were likewise at an elevated level, although members reported weakness in some price segments and geographic areas of the housing market.
[2001-01-01] One prominent example is the work in behavioral finance on how alternative assumptions regarding rationality can affect predictions for asset prices and saving behavior
[2001-01-01] In dissenting, Mr. Meyer noted that although the money growth ranges do not play an important role in the conduct of monetary policy today, Congress has mandated that the FOMC set and report ranges fo
[2001-01-01] annual input price inflation excluding oil had eased from 5.0% in january to 2.4% in june.
[2001-01-01] On the other hand, if recent productivity gains were to be sustained, as some business contacts indicated they would be, potential output currently could be higher than standard measures suggested, an
[2001-01-01] annual services price inflation had been unchanged at 4.0% and annual goods price inflation had remained unchanged at 0.7% in june.
[2001-01-01] the members also believed that the balance of risks remained weighted toward conditions that could generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
[2001-01-01] Progress at Home and Abroad Over the past several quarters, we have seen improvement in inflation and activity both at home and abroad following a period when the drag on domestic activity from abroad
[2001-01-01] I will focus my remarks today on the use of explicit forward guidance as a tool for monetary policy.1 Before I start, let me briefly discuss near-term monetary policy.
[2001-01-01] The slowing economy, together with rising interest rates, was in turn a major factor in precipitating the stock market crash.
[2001-01-01] to that extent, the negative contribution of net trade to uk output growth would tend to be smaller than from a more generalised adverse shock to global demand.
[2001-01-01] the number of loan approvals and particulars delivered had been little changed in april compared with march.
[2001-01-01] I strongly supported the FOMC's decision last week, and I expect to support additional rate increases until we see significant progress toward bringing inflation down.
[2001-01-01] If labor demand cools, will separations increase and shift the curve outward, increasing unemployment further?
[2001-01-01] in the meantime, nonresidential construction and energy-related investments were a source of some support to investment spending, but they provided only a very partial offset to widespread weakness in
[2001-01-01] Household mortgage debt was expected to expand at a reduced rate in the fourth quarter, reflecting softer home prices and declining home sales, as well as a tightening in credit conditions for some bo
[2001-01-01] the production and new orders components had both been above the neutral ‘50’ level for the first time this year.
[2001-01-01] Operationally, maintaining price stability requires abiding by the Taylor principle of raising nominal interest rates more than one for one in response to movements in inflation, especially those move
[2001-01-01] measures of consumer confidence had remained strong, and on some measures business confidence had risen in recent months.
[2001-01-01] purchases of motor vehicles surged in response to aggressive zero-rate financing packages offered by automakers, while spending on other goods made a partial recovery from the september drop.
[2001-01-01] however, rates on high-yield private debt obligations fell only a little, and banks further tightened standards and terms on business loans, given the weakening outlook for profits.
[2001-01-01] Additionally, can one make any other generalizations concerning recessions that follow asset-price booms and busts and how they differ from other recessions?
[2001-01-01] non-gilt issuance, which had been low in march, had returned in april to a level close to the average from october to february.
[2001-01-01] german manufacturing orders had fallen in january by 3.9% on the month.
[2001-01-01] in addition to the effects of lower market interest rates, extensive mortgage financing activity and a flight to safety from volatile equity markets likely added to m2's strong upward trend.
[2001-01-01] retail stocks continued to climb in january, but sales rose by more; the sector's inventory-sales ratio also edged lower, but it remained near the top of its range for the past twelve months.
[2001-01-01] a45 the agents had reported that recent strong annual retail sales growth had been maintained into january.
[2001-01-01] Staff Economic Outlook The projection for U. S. economic activity prepared by the staff for the April–May FOMC meeting was revised up on net.
[2001-01-01] Particularly in light of persistent low readings on inflation and from indicators of inflation expectations along with the risks to the U. S. outlook associated with global economic developments, he n
[2001-01-01] household consumption growth still showed no obvious signs of slowing: growth in the fourth quarter now seemed likely to be somewhat faster than previously expected and possibly above that recorded in
[2001-01-01] Almost all participants reaffirmed the view that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be consistent with sustaining the Committee's objectives of maxim
[2001-01-01] a50 manufacturing employment had declined at a more rapid pace than in the previous month, due to lower activity in the sector.
[2001-01-01] a27 the contribution to gdp growth from stockbuilding in 2001 q1 had been revised up to 0.9 percentage points from the previous estimate of 0.3 percentage points.
[2001-01-01] interest rate expectations implied by short sterling futures had risen by up to 50 basis points since the committee’s previous meeting.
[2001-01-01] as a result, growth of spending on consumer durables was expected to be appreciably below the rapid pace in the first half of last year, and housing demand would increase only a little from its recent
[2001-01-01] the labour market was still quite tight but was no longer obviously tightening, and underlying pay pressures appeared stable.
[2001-01-01] conditions elsewhere in the euro area were generally rather more robust, although business confidence was less buoyant even in france and euro-area industrial production had fallen in january; a slowd
[2001-01-01] in part, the slowdown in domestic demand in recent months might have reflected a supply shock.
[2001-01-01] The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges
[2001-01-01] These interest rate changes also have effects on asset prices, and thereby on household wealth, as well as on the exchange value of the dollar and, thereby, on net exports and core import prices.7 How
[2001-01-01] The specific price-stability target of an inflation rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, was announced as part of the Statement
[2001-01-01] The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reache
[2001-01-01] The vote encompassed approval of the paragraph below for inclusion in the statement to be released shortly after the meeting: "The Committee judges that some further policy firming may yet be needed t
[2001-01-01] First, longer-maturity obligations may be more attractive because of more stable inflation, better-anchored inflation expectations, and a reduction in economic volatility more generally.
[2001-01-01] On the foreign trade side of the economy, an anticipated firming of economic conditions abroad would provide impetus to real net exports, At the same time, however, imports were expected to rise appre
[2001-01-01] Persistently strong demand and increasingly supportive conditions in debt and equity markets suggested the possibility of rising inflation pressures.
[2001-01-01] In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum emp
[2001-01-01] On balance, while the business investment outlook seemed vulnerable to somewhat greater than projected weakness in the short run, the members were persuaded that, against the background of large conti
[2001-01-01] one year ahead inflation expectations had fallen back in q4, after an increase in q3.
[2001-01-01] House price appreciation appeared to have slowed from the elevated rates seen over the past summer.
[2001-01-01] One of Dick Porter's many contributions was to develop a monetary approach to forecasting inflation at medium-term horizons.
[2001-01-01] In discussing the increases in U. S. longer-term interest rates that occurred in the wake of the June FOMC meeting and the associated press conference, meeting participants pointed to heightened finan
[2001-01-01] there was also little sign that the labour market was yet on the turn, although some forward-looking indicators continued to suggest that it might be soon.