yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1988-09-20] Well, you're asking me to make a policy judgment, a subjective judgment about the short-run costs and benefits of a policy you have in mind.
[1988-12-14] Making minute adjustments at the bottom can balance the pyramid, but it's not at all clear that that will always avoid major movement of the pyramid either.
[1989-02-08] Taking a rough score it appears that there is a significant weighting towards alternative "I," so why don't I officially put that up for a formal vote.
[1989-02-08] Let me start off by requesting that each individual President and Governor try to get a final revised forecast for the Humphrey-Hawkins series to us prior to 3 p.m. on Friday, February 10 if that's at
[1989-02-08] But I was just thinking about the correct thing to do [according to the Act], not what Congress wanted [in July].
[1989-03-28] Well, it clearly works in that direction, though it all depends a bit on what one thinks the current meeting will produce for the balance of 1989.
[1989-03-28] But even if it is not a pause, even if we are seeing some real slowing, I think the risks of recession with a firmer policy are minimal.
[1989-03-28] Looking at the District, our recent performance and the near-term prospects for our economy continue to improve.
[1989-05-16] Well, I interpreted alternative B as maintaining about the same funds rate level as we've been running over the last intermeeting period.
[1989-05-16] But it seems to me that more or less what I'm hearing is the commitment for a conference call before the next meeting, which gives the opportunity to make any slight adjustment if that's wrong.
[1989-05-16] I would prefer asymmetrical toward restraint as it was last meeting.
[1989-05-16] Having been burned as badly as we were, we don't want to overstate that.
[1989-05-16] And we end up with a lower unemployment rate and eliminate most of that slack that would otherwise emerge.
[1989-07-06] But I did want [others] to be aware of the fact that some of that is a one-time deal and will not necessarily follow through.
[1989-07-06] What would that do to M2 growth or to the M2 money demand I guess is the way to put it?
[1989-07-06] Particularly if I take out the demand deposit component, which has had its own special influences with the compensating balances and whatnot, M2 is running stronger than we projected at the last meeti
[1989-08-22] There are plenty of countries that finance that quite easily as long as it's going for sustainable private-sector investment.
[1989-08-22] They have made a judgment that we won't, and it's not clear that it's that simple.
[1989-08-22] Be that as it may, the trend there just looks to be weaker than one would anticipate over time; so in the second half we do have, in effect, a bit of a catch up.
[1989-10-03] It tells me that there are great risks of a renewal of protectionist attitudes in this country.
[1989-10-03] But let me take up a further [unintelligible] in terms of the intermediate-term outlook.
[1989-10-03] I wanted that last time, as you may remember, and I've seen no accumulating evidence that suggests we are any closer to a recession at this meeting than we were at the last meeting.
[1989-10-03] I have a question not with regard to Peter's report on the operations but on the seasonal borrowing program.
[1989-10-03] Our problem, basically, is that at this stage we could probably as central banks--we could at the Fed--create a really big fuss about this.
[1989-10-03] With respect to [agriculture], the good news is that the drought has been broken, although crop estimates for the spring-planted crops are a fourth to a third below what would be an average crop.
[1989-11-14] Well, even under alternative A [the funds rate] would still be a point above the discount rate.
[1989-11-14] But the other factor was that policy had just eased and thinking about reversing that action after it had just been taken seemed so strange.
[1989-12-19] With regard to Boeing, the Boeing settlement is quite complex and we've been trying to price it out.
[1989-12-19] Let me just say, and Larry referred to this, that we have had underway a comprehensive examination of this issue; had it not been for the overload we reached when you requested this briefing, we would
[1989-12-19] But in a sense we don't have any real sacrifice occurring until we get out into 1991.
[1989-12-19] There is an acceptance now--rightly or wrongly, and I think it's wrongly--that 4-1/2 percent inflation is not all that bad.
[1989-12-19] Mr. Chairman, I have no problem with what Governor Angell suggested.
[1989-12-19] Well, for example, it makes a big difference when what we're dealing with is a $20 oil shock or a $3 oil shock, or a--
[1989-12-19] If we didn't approve it, Sam would end up having to buy some dollars with some of his earnings on foreign currencies to stay below the limit.
[1989-12-19] I think I know what would happen to the expectational effects and the credibility and so forth.
[1990-02-07] So, in effect, there is no evidence at this particular stage that were we to move in that direction we'd have to reverse and move it back up in 1991.
[1990-02-07] We have some productivity increase and we think this is internally consistent.
[1990-02-07] I don't know what has happened to this corner over here, Mr. Chairman.
[1990-02-07] and then we'll put on the table a rule in which this Committee can make that judgment as to how we record this.
[1990-02-08] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-02-08: target=+0.30 bp, path=+5.80 bp
[1990-03-27] The other is that members of Congress become concerned about the losses and try to exert political pressure on us so that we don't have to take those losses, which would mean pressure to ease policy.
[1990-03-27] Now we're claiming that is an open market operation, as I understand it.
[1990-03-28] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-03-28: target=+1.50 bp, path=-3.30 bp
[1990-05-15] So, instead of heading south to 4 percent a couple of years from now, we feel the risk is that inflation would be heading north to 5 percent.
[1990-05-16] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-05-16: target=+2.50 bp, path=-3.40 bp
[1990-07-05] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-07-05: target=+0.40 bp, path=+3.90 bp
[1990-07-13] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-07-13: target=+0.90 bp, path=-1.00 bp
[1990-08-22] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-08-22: target=+2.30 bp, path=+0.80 bp
[1990-10-02] So, we wouldn't ordinarily expect money demand to react very sharply contemporaneously to slowdowns in nominal GNP.
[1990-10-02] If we believe that the oil price goes up and the [unintelligible] comes down and there's no wage effect, it's a complete washout.
[1990-10-02] I don't see that yet, and that's why I'm having a little trouble right now.
[1990-10-03] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-10-03: target=+1.30 bp, path=-0.40 bp
[1990-10-29] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-10-29: target=-0.90 bp, path=+5.00 bp
[1990-11-13] We are not able to point to very clear-cut real impacts at this juncture that we can say are obviously attributable to the credit situation.
[1990-11-13] It's also full of irony because if you look at the operational paragraph, it's the only reference to the federal funds rate yet we essentially peg the federal funds rate and we are [talking about] eli
[1990-11-13] Sam, I didn't catch what you said in terms of our exposure now and where our ceiling is.
[1990-11-13] We had a joint meeting last week of all four of our boards of directors and the comments made at that meeting certainly confirmed what our statistics are saying.
[1990-11-13] We will have minutes at that point and I assume the minutes will explicitly state the purpose of what is being done.
[1990-11-13] Mr. Chairman, since you characterized the sentence as an anachronism, why don't we choose the environmentally sensitive solution and eliminate it?
[1990-11-14] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-11-14: target=+4.70 bp, path=-0.60 bp
[1990-12-07] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-12-07: target=-5.30 bp, path=+5.70 bp
[1990-12-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1990-12-18: target=-16.10 bp, path=+14.10 bp
[1990-12-18] On the national economy: While the Greenbook forecast of a relatively mild, short-lived recession is plausible, my guess is that it's wrong and that we will have a longer lasting and a more serious re
[1990-12-18] If we did this, you don't think it would provide an undue degree of surprise, do you?
[1990-12-18] I think we could establish a 7 percent funds rate by Friday and then just have a technical adjustment [in the discount rate] and use the appropriate language for that.
[1990-12-18] Don's projections presumably could err on both sides, not just one side, and we may well get a faster growth rate of money.
[1991-01-08] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-01-08: target=-11.70 bp, path=-4.60 bp
[1991-02-01] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-02-01: target=-6.20 bp, path=+1.80 bp
[1991-02-06] I have two interesting vignettes about the effect of the war on the economy, who is a very large retailer with stores predominantly in the West but also on the East Coast.
[1991-02-06] That's part of the reason why I made the suggestion about trying to get some reserves out through the discount window in a way in which Peter could do a pretty good job of protecting against--
[1991-02-06] Both auto sales and production in my judgment are going to be a disaster in this quarter and right now I can't think what is going to bring them off the floor in the next quarter.
[1991-02-06] If the Congress feels comfortable with the arrangement, I'm certainly on board in this context.
[1991-02-06] I'm just saying that if it were up to me, in this environment where we're worried about getting the money growth path, I'd hate to be sitting here three months from now with a slope on that line of to
[1991-02-07] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-02-07: target=+1.30 bp, path=-0.20 bp
[1991-03-08] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-03-08: target=-3.50 bp, path=-3.80 bp
[1991-03-27] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-03-27: target=+4.90 bp, path=-10.50 bp
[1991-04-30] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-04-30: target=-18.70 bp, path=-10.50 bp
[1991-05-15] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-05-15: target=+3.00 bp, path=+2.00 bp
[1991-07-03] Like the Greenbook, we expect a decline in inflation over the next year and a half.
[1991-07-03] The District isn't showing anything much different from what anybody else's District seems to be showing, at least from what I've heard here.
[1991-07-03] However, I should point out that total District employment still remains 0.4 of a percent above the May 1990 level, with California the only District state to lose employment over the year.
[1991-07-05] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-07-05: target=+0.50 bp, path=+5.80 bp
[1991-08-06] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-08-06: target=-13.50 bp, path=-0.80 bp
[1991-08-20] And certainly all of economic history and the thrust of analysis will tell us that a double-dip is unlikely.
[1991-08-21] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-08-21: target=+12.00 bp, path=-7.20 bp
[1991-09-13] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-09-13: target=-0.40 bp, path=+6.20 bp
[1991-10-01] But I think the staff and everyone else would agree that the question is very much outstanding.
[1991-10-02] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-10-02: target=+2.10 bp, path=+2.20 bp
[1991-10-30] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-10-30: target=-1.60 bp, path=+4.30 bp
[1991-11-06] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-11-06: target=-11.70 bp, path=-1.30 bp
[1991-12-06] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-12-06: target=+2.10 bp, path=+2.60 bp
[1991-12-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-12-18: target=+3.40 bp, path=+5.60 bp
[1991-12-20] GSS factor decomposition for 1991-12-20: target=-32.20 bp, path=-10.20 bp
[1992-02-05] If there's anything to that, layoffs are going to decline and that should help confidence.
[1992-02-05] But we really don't know how long it will take or how big it will be.
[1992-02-05] and we would not like to see any significant shortfall from that path this quarter.
[1992-02-05] But on the other side of that, I think the substantial further easing in monetary policy we engineered in November-December could easily produce a more rapid recovery than we are expecting here, parti
[1992-02-05] And the announcements of reverse LBOs and so forth suggest that there still is more room to go in that area.
[1992-02-06] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-02-06: target=+3.70 bp, path=-1.60 bp
[1992-04-01] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-04-01: target=+0.10 bp, path=+4.30 bp
[1992-04-09] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-04-09: target=-19.00 bp, path=-22.50 bp
[1992-05-20] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-05-20: target=+4.10 bp, path=+1.60 bp
[1992-07-01] So, the fact that the perception out there was that at certain rate levels and at certain times we didn't have a tolerance [for actions] that would cause people to bid the rate up is part of what one
[1992-07-01] There isn't anyone out there who expects that the Committee is going to be firming policy, so there's more tolerance for a funds rate that deviates to the high side of the expected level than there wo
[1992-07-01] If in fact we go up [to Congress] and say that we are uncertain about where things are temporarily, that's one thing.
[1992-07-01] The difficulty I see--and the reason I would agree with your proposal--is that it's simply difficult to send a clear signal in the current environment with the context of a distorted M2; it's difficul
[1992-07-02] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-07-02: target=-9.70 bp, path=+20.80 bp
[1992-08-18] There was talk then that the trend had improved to maybe 2 percent or in excess of 2 percent and it turned out to be a disappointment that as we progressed through the decade we didn't see that kind o
[1992-08-18] Would the benefits be diminished if we are very open and acknowledge that when the market is receptive to our selling foreign currencies, we would do so?
[1992-08-18] Peter tried to explain this to me, too, and I simply don't understand it.
[1992-08-18] [as the reason for intervention], but I feel constrained to say that I was extremely surprised at this intervention, particularly the second and the third [operations].
[1992-08-18] I would be with John LaWare on preferring symmetric language at this point because I think things are in motion except--and this is not a policy issue but a communications issue--if we went with symme
[1992-08-19] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-08-19: target=+4.20 bp, path=-1.00 bp
[1992-09-04] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-09-04: target=+2.60 bp, path=-2.30 bp
[1992-10-06] A retiree living on the proceeds of short-term deposits would not see an improvement coming from lower short-term rates.
[1992-10-06] Basically, as we were putting this forecast together, my sense was that given the behavior of the Committee what we were forecasting seemed highly probable and that, unless you switched gears, some sl
[1992-10-06] Or at least we wouldn't get the 75 basis points decline; rates would stay constant.
[1992-10-07] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-10-07: target=+3.80 bp, path=-0.10 bp
[1992-11-17] The weakness that we're seeing in California certainly is a concern.
[1992-11-17] The essential part--the best public policy part--I think is most closely associated with the issue of the deliberative process.
[1992-11-17] The statistics or anecdotal information we have suggest that the Eighth District is growing modestly more rapidly than the rest of the country, but there are no really dramatic changes.
[1992-11-17] We've done a study, we have some good reasons, and we can explain our action in a letter.
[1992-11-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-11-18: target=+4.80 bp, path=+1.20 bp
[1992-12-23] GSS factor decomposition for 1992-12-23: target=+3.80 bp, path=-6.20 bp
[1993-02-03] We are jointly targeting M2 and velocity, which suggests to me that we're implicitly targeting nominal GDP.
[1993-02-03] [We can see] if there is anything else we might find useful--as opposed to the way we looked at it, which was to start with the assumption that openness is a threat to the quality of monetary policyma
[1993-02-03] Now, we think in a simple two-sector model a lot of this stuff was produced in the defense sector and it wasn't entering the measurements for consumer prices anyway.
[1993-02-03] The next item on our organizational agenda is the selection of the New York Bank as the Bank to execute transactions for the System Open Market Account.
[1993-02-03] I don't have the courage to vote to tighten at this point, Mr. Chairman, because I'm hopeful that this will get reversed.
[1993-02-04] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-02-04: target=+0.00 bp, path=+3.80 bp
[1993-03-23] While we need to be vigilant on inflation and avoid the mistakes of the past, we also need to look at the fundamentals when statistics are mixed.
[1993-03-23] I'd probably be more concerned if we hadn't seen the slowdown in M1, reserves, the base, and so forth over the last couple of months.
[1993-03-23] Of course, we can answer them when we get them, but if we write the answer out to begin with, it might be clearer.
[1993-03-23] But I personally don't feel comfortable with anything new in here.
[1993-03-24] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-03-24: target=+2.90 bp, path=+3.50 bp
[1993-05-18] In reading the Greenbook for this meeting and listening to your comments and then thinking back over the analysis in the Greenbooks over the last 8 or 9 months and the swings in sentiment and developm
[1993-05-18] We haven't discussed the fact that we do have a policy record--I beg your pardon, minutes.
[1993-05-18] The liquidation that I spoke of--the Japanese investments--will probably at least in the first instance not be U.S. dollars.
[1993-05-19] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-05-19: target=+0.00 bp, path=-1.20 bp
[1993-07-07] Well, I'm clearly not in tune with the other members of the FOMC.
[1993-07-07] Our objective is to go to price stability, but we're predicting that the rate of inflation is going to be sticking in the 3 to 3 plus percent area.
[1993-07-07] By constraining [the ability of] the Committee to take actions to go to an asymmetric directive or off asymmetry to symmetry, it would in some sense remove by very small amounts some of the flexibilit
[1993-07-07] Certainly, this would be the case going back several years before this, but I don't have data going back much earlier.
[1993-07-08] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-07-08: target=+1.80 bp, path=+0.10 bp
[1993-08-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-08-18: target=+6.40 bp, path=-0.50 bp
[1993-09-21] One is that, as we are gauging it now, we believe that a reasonable estimate of potential output growth at this time is perhaps a shade below 2-1/2 percent.
[1993-09-22] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-09-22: target=+4.00 bp, path=-3.20 bp
[1993-11-16] Interestingly enough, the way I heard it--others who were there may have heard it differently--they were almost unanimous in seeing the risks on the down side, not the up side, for whatever that's wor
[1993-11-16] We'd have the litigation and ultimately be subjected to some judgment in the courts.
[1993-11-16] Now, if you want to make a substitute motion and reverse the order, that's your privilege.
[1993-11-16] Virgil, I wonder how much more comfort we might have if it were possible to get something in the way of a firm official position from the Justice Department relative to FOIA and the Archivist relative
[1993-11-17] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-11-17: target=+0.60 bp, path=+1.90 bp
[1993-12-21] In this regard I think the 1/2 point backup in long-term interest rates we've seen recently is a warning.
[1993-12-21] If not, before we go on to the substance of our meeting, the conventional [agenda], Sandra Pianalto is here for the first time and we'd like to welcome her.
[1993-12-21] Well, I'm really raising the issue: Is the October 15th tape and transcript one that if somebody comes in and asks for it under the Freedom of Information Act we're going to have to deliver.
[1993-12-21] The only case I can think of was '66 where the Fed [implemented] just one small increase.
[1993-12-21] I do agree with what Susan was saying before--that this will be the basis for singling out individuals and criticizing them and it won't be the end of it.
[1993-12-22] GSS factor decomposition for 1993-12-22: target=+3.20 bp, path=-6.70 bp
[1994-02-04] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-02-04: target=+8.10 bp, path=+21.80 bp
[1994-02-04] I wonder if that adjustment would change your conclusions about a rebound in homeownership?
[1994-02-04] Number one is that consumer debt seems to be accelerating, and this is at a time when the ratio of consumer debt to worth is still at an all-time high.
[1994-02-04] As Larry Lindsey said, controlling prices is a mechanism for doing that.
[1994-03-22] Mike, I note that in the forecast there is a roll-back at the long end of about 1/2 percentage point, but suppose that doesn't happen.
[1994-03-22] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-03-22: target=-2.20 bp, path=-4.90 bp
[1994-03-22] Our practice is going to lock us into that because my sense is we won't get back to these other disclosure issues for some months, and there may be other actions to announce in the meantime.
[1994-04-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-04-18: target=+10.70 bp, path=+6.60 bp
[1994-05-17] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-05-17: target=+7.20 bp, path=-21.20 bp
[1994-05-17] We feel that the 2-1/2 percent potential is a reasonable working assumption.
[1994-07-06] In fact, such a number probably would be one I would want to react to least.
[1994-07-06] This is not to deny in any sense that there may not be some inflationary pressures that are building.
[1994-07-06] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-07-06: target=+1.80 bp, path=+4.00 bp
[1994-08-16] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-08-16: target=+10.70 bp, path=-8.30 bp
[1994-08-16] On the national front, we like others, see GDP growth going forward above its potential if we leave policy unchanged and we also see the inflation rate pushing up well above 3 percent next year.
[1994-09-27] Their margins are coming under pressure and how much more they can be squeezed is on their minds.
[1994-09-27] We would be doing that ourselves at some remove from German market custody arrangements.
[1994-09-27] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-09-27: target=-4.30 bp, path=+7.90 bp
[1994-11-15] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-11-15: target=+10.30 bp, path=-3.40 bp
[1994-11-15] That differs from a feeling that a policy action by this Committee to increase the funds rate will at least temporarily depress bond prices.
[1994-11-15] With timely actions going forward, we have a good chance of keeping inflationary pressures in check and the expansion on track.
[1994-11-15] [Laughter] I don't think they were talking about the Australians and New Zealanders, but here we are.
[1994-12-20] GSS factor decomposition for 1994-12-20: target=-15.10 bp, path=+26.60 bp
[1995-02-01] Brian Madigan said he thought the projection of free collateral was $8 to $10 billion over some indefinite period.
[1995-02-01] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-02-01: target=+7.80 bp, path=+5.50 bp
[1995-03-28] We need to try to distinguish between cyclical increases that are likely to moderate as the cycle matures and increases of a more underlying or core character.
[1995-03-28] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-03-28: target=+5.30 bp, path=+2.20 bp
[1995-05-23] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-05-23: target=+2.20 bp, path=-0.30 bp
[1995-05-23] As I look at the last four quarters of this forecast, it gives off the aura of a steady state in all aspects except one.
[1995-07-06] I think we are dealing with an imperfect law that asks us to communicate our objectives in an imperfect way.
[1995-07-06] Those are two very coherent thoughts that I can relate to on these ranges.
[1995-07-06] The more leadership we exercise in this, the better off we are going to be in terms of the ultimate outcome.
[1995-07-06] I did not mean to suggest any pejorative notion by using the word "deflation.
[1995-07-06] GSS factor decomposition for 1995-07-06: target=-8.70 bp, path=-38.40 bp