yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2002-01-01] More recently, with inflation under control, overheating has shown up in the form of financial excess.
[2002-01-01] it was possible that the increase in uncertainty following the terrorist attacks on 11 september had had a greater impact than previously believed.
[2002-01-01] expenditures on a wide range of other consumer goods and services expanded briskly.
[2002-01-01] an apparent consequence of reduced income growth and of lower equity prices was a change in the mix of single-family homebuilding, with less emphasis on construction of high-priced homes.
[2002-01-01] a38 the annual inflation rate of the gdp deflator at market prices had risen to 3.6% in 2002 q1, from 2.7% in 2001 q4.
[2002-01-01] While labor markets were anticipated to remain tight in the near term, participants expected labor demand and supply to come into better balance over time, helping to ease upward pressure on wages and
[2002-01-01] The July-August deficit in U. S. trade in goods and services was higher than its average in the second quarter, as further growth in imports exceeded the rise in exports.
[2002-01-01] These members expected that the target range would be maintained at this level until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximu
[2002-01-01] a20 since the committee’s previous meeting, uk equity indices had fallen, and they had been very volatile during the period.
[2002-01-01] the non-manufacturing ism index had fallen to 57.3 in march from 58.7 in february.
[2002-01-01] Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker.
[2002-01-01] the movement in the past month had been broadly consistent with interest differentials, but was less easy to reconcile with the apparent strength of domestic recovery in the united states relative to
[2002-01-01] similarly, economists polled by reuters on 27 february attached a mean probability of 80% to the committee leaving the repo rate unchanged.
[2002-01-01] Moreover, the staff still judged that the risks to the forecast for real GDP growth were tilted to the downside, with a corresponding skew to the upside for the unemployment rate.
[2002-01-01] Our new statement explicitly acknowledges the challenges posed by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound.
[2002-01-01] members believed that the economy probably would continue to operate with significant margins of slack in both labor and product markets.
[2002-01-01] the contribution to gdp growth from stockbuilding in q4 had been 0.1 percentage points.
[2002-01-01] On March 16, we launched a program to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities in whatever amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective tr
[2002-01-01] Strong fundamentals, including low interest rates, wide profit margins, and a high level of liquid assets, were seen as supporting expenditures on software and equipment going forward.
[2002-01-01] firms had also been asked what factors would cause them to increase their spending on investment.
[2002-01-01] the members concurred with the staff's recommendation that the staff studies prepared for the committee in january 2001, when it discussed in detail various alternatives to holding u.s. government sec
[2002-01-01] the greater-than-expected rise in house prices would tend to offset the influence of the fall in equity prices on consumption, and might lead to a stronger near-term prospect for consumption than envi
[2002-01-01] Moreover, the expected strength in aggregate demand would curb the extent of disinflation over time.
[2002-01-01] Still, most members projected that over the next couple of years, the unemployment rate would remain quite elevated and the level of inflation would remain below rates consistent over the longer run w
[2002-01-01] the economies of the technology-sensitive asian countries had already turned up in the fourth quarter and seemed to have grown rapidly in the early months of the year.
[2002-01-01] Another participant mentioned, however, that recent sluggish growth of the monetary aggregates suggested that the stance of policy was not overly accommodative.
[2002-01-01] although financial markets, and perhaps business and household confidence, had been shaken by revelations of accounting irregularities, the economy had continued to expand and the prospects for accele
[2002-01-01] Subsequently, investors revised down the expected policy path after the June employment report and the Chairman's semiannual monetary policy testimony.
[2002-01-01] a2 the preliminary estimate of us gdp growth for 2002 q1 had been 1.4%, the same as the advance estimate.
[2002-01-01] Of course, many other factors also influence inflation, and some of these provide other possible explanations for the recent changes in inflation dynamics.
[2002-01-01] Policymakers, economists, and market participants see much of this decline as reflecting a permanent fall in the equilibrium rate of interestâ€”that is, the level of the federal funds rate that keeps
[2002-01-01] a15 within the quarterly industrial breakdown of sterling bank lending, the annual rate of repayment of bank debt by manufacturers had increased in q3.
[2002-01-01] core inflation in the euro-area had been surprisingly persistent, although the flash estimate of the area-wide harmonised index of consumer prices, on the headline measure, had unexpectedly fallen som
[2002-01-30] But I am uncomfortable about releasing the vote tally, including the name of a dissenter, by itself.
[2002-01-30] Maybe we ought to enjoy it instead of worrying too much about it!
[2002-01-30] Whether that was right or wrong, that's what we argued, and the Court agreed to it.
[2002-01-30] But to come back to something that you said, Roger, this raises a question about the timing of the release of the minutes for the meeting.
[2002-01-30] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-3/4 percent. Signs that weakness in demand is abating and economic activity is beginning to
[2002-01-30] And I would say that the tourism business has been adversely affected by the weather.
[2002-01-30] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January 29-30, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washi
[2002-01-30] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-01-30: target=+4.20 bp, path=+3.60 bp
[2002-03-19] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-3/4 percent. The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Commit
[2002-03-19] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-03-19: target=-0.30 bp, path=-11.70 bp
[2002-03-19] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee March 19, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington
[2002-03-19] And I would point out that if the next move has to be up, which I think it will be, we can certainly move from a balanced balance of risks statement.
[2002-03-19] It isn't at all clear to me what would give us the authority to decide--to make the highly political judgment--that pure Treasuries are okay but GNMAs or something else are not.
[2002-05-07] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-05-07: target=+3.50 bp, path=-11.40 bp
[2002-05-07] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee May 7, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D
[2002-05-07] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Commit
[2002-06-26] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 25-26, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingt
[2002-06-26] Mr. Chairman, may I make one clarifying comment just so there isn't any confusion about what David and John have shown on exhibit 6?
[2002-06-26] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-06-26: target=+2.40 bp, path=+2.30 bp
[2002-06-26] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Commit
[2002-08-13] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. The softening in the growth of aggregate demand that emerged this spring has b
[2002-08-13] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-08-13: target=+8.10 bp, path=-37.20 bp
[2002-08-13] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee August 13, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingto
[2002-09-24] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-09-24: target=+3.80 bp, path=-5.60 bp
[2002-09-24] The reluctance of firms to hire or invest is particularly discouraging given continued strong spending by consumers and the remarkable growth of productivity.
[2002-09-24] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 24, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washin
[2002-09-24] That's a lot easier to convey in a couple of words in the statement.
[2002-09-24] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1 3/4 percent. The information that has become available since the last meeting of the Commit
[2002-11-06] So, my preference would be for the staff to continue with the Ginnie Maes, which are a logical extension of our current practices, and to do a little more homework on the ACF.
[2002-11-06] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 1 1/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 50 basis poin
[2002-11-06] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-11-06: target=-16.30 bp, path=+7.20 bp
[2002-11-06] I'm in favor of what Governor Ferguson, Governor Kohn, and President Moskow said.
[2002-11-06] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee November 6, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingt
[2002-11-06] We're expecting ongoing declines in investment in that sector and growth in capacity that for a second year will be the weakest on record since we have been constructing capacity measures.
[2002-12-10] GSS factor decomposition for 2002-12-10: target=+1.90 bp, path=+7.00 bp
[2002-12-10] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 10, 2002 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washing
[2002-12-10] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent. The Committee continues to believe that this accommodative stance of monetary
[2002-12-10] But essentially the model doesn't want to push the economy into deflation without combining a number of these different kinds of shocks.
[2003-01-01] the average workweek and aggregate hours worked by nonfarm employees increased significantly, and the average level of nonfarm employee hours in october and november was noticeably above the average i
[2003-01-01] In particular, participants judged that communicating the Committee's expectation that short-term interest rates were likely to stay exceptionally low for some time could be useful because it could le
[2003-01-01] I have downplayed the role of the U.S. federal budget deficit today, and I disagree with the view, sometimes heard, that balancing the federal budget by itself would largely defuse the current account
[2003-01-01] The European Central Bank (ECB) began operating on June 1, 1998, and assumed responsibility for monetary policy in the euro area on January 1, 1999.
[2003-01-01] a34 the overall cips employment index for may had improved slightly on the previous month, but had remained below the ‘no-change’ level of 50.
[2003-01-01] the recent declines in consumer confidence might reflect uncertainties about the international political situation, which might be resolved in the near term.
[2003-01-01] The trimmed mean measure of 12-month PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas remained at or near 2 percent in recent months.
[2003-01-01] but it was possible that the faster growth in the past was indicative of a more rapid rate of underlying productivity growth, which would continue into the future; that might imply lower future inflat
[2003-01-01] sustained outsized gains in productivity could further damp hiring.
[2003-01-01] concerns over foreign travel had been expected to boost domestic tourism, but some companies would be adversely affected by the expected continued low number of visitors from north america.
[2003-01-01] while assessments by individual members of the likely pace of the expansion going forward differed somewhat, they generally expected growth to run at a rate that would trim slack in labor and goods ma
[2003-01-01] generally small changes in shipments and sales in the july-august period kept book-value inventory-sales ratios about flat at very low levels.
[2003-01-01] With the restraint from fiscal policy assumed to increase next year, the staff projected that increases in real GDP would not significantly exceed the growth rate of potential output in 2013.
[2003-01-01] Thus, reducing vacancies from an extremely high level to a lower (but still strong) level has a relatively limited effect on hiring and on unemployment.
[2003-01-01] Thus, I believe this description essentially characterizes the current macroeconomic environment, and my own projection of inflation at a three-year horizon is equal to my assessment of the mandate-co
[2003-01-01] The underlying rate of consumer price inflation in recent months was lower than the staff expected at the time of the November meeting, and the staff forecast anticipated that core PCE prices would ri
[2003-01-01] mean rpix inflation expectations for 2003 q4 in hm treasury’s survey had fallen to 2.5% in may, from 2.6% in april.
[2003-01-01] the following members of the committee were present: eddie george, governor mervyn king, deputy governor responsible for monetary policy andrew large, deputy governor responsible for financial stabili
[2003-01-01] This change has led many governments to be more willing to adopt institutional changes to improve central bank governance that have bolstered central bank credibility for maintaining low inflation.
[2003-01-01] Thus, knowing where productivity growth is headed is, in many respects, equivalent to foreseeing our economic destinies.
[2003-01-01] A surge in nonfarm business inventory investment accounted for a substantial portion of the acceleration in output in the first quarter, and an anticipated moderation in the accumulation of inventorie
[2003-01-01] These communications were, as you would expect, biased--they were all in response to decisions to raise interest rates and most often occurred when those increases came shortly before an election.
[2003-01-01] In particular, investors noted that the Committee attributed some of the recent increase in inflation to transitory factors, retained its earlier balance of risks assessment, and reiterated its belief
[2003-01-01] Significant cost cutting by firms was thought to have led to a sizable increase in productivity growth in the first half of the year
[2003-01-01] the surprise this year had been that there had not so far been more upward pressure on wages, given the increase in national insurance contribution rates and the higher levels of retail price inflatio
[2003-01-01] To see this, suppose that a speculative bubble has emerged and that a central bank, operating under a conventional strategy, has raised interest rates to keep the projected output gap closed and expec
[2003-01-01] The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that federal tax increases and spending cuts will slow the pace of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth about 1-1/2 percentage points this year.3 Ti
[2003-01-01] Moreover, broad equity price indexes had declined and borrowing costs for nonfinancial firms had increased, including a recent rise in corporate bond yields across most risk categories.
[2003-01-01] whereas manufacturing output had appeared to be broadly flat last summer, once due account was taken of the effects of the jubilee holidays on the monthly pattern of output, the underlying trend now s
[2003-01-01] members noted that the current stance of monetary policy remained quite accommodative and, given the tenor of the latest information on the performance of the economy in the context of generally favor
[2003-01-01] the level of the corporate sector financial balance had generally been revised down since 2000, compared with the previous estimates.
[2003-01-01] The FOMC's primary monetary policy tool is its target range for the federal funds rate.
[2003-01-01] the planned investment percentage balance for the manufacturing sector had fallen to +2 in q1, from +8 in q4, and the proportion of firms operating at full capacity had fallen to 33% in q1, from 38% i
[2003-01-01] a45 manufacturing input prices had fallen by 1.3% in may, although base effects had resulted in a rise in the annual inflation rate to 1.0% in may, from 0.4% in april.
[2003-01-01] consumer spending remained firm, and residential construction continued at a high level.
[2003-01-01] A number of participants noted that continued high unemployment, particularly with large numbers of workers suffering very long spells of unemployment, would lead to an erosion of workers' skills that
[2003-01-01] Nonetheless, the leveling off in that disturbing trend is an encouraging sign of what we can achieve if we can maintain strong and flexible labor markets accompanied by low inflation.
[2003-01-01] We indicated that, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goa
[2003-01-01] Participants anticipated that inflation would continue to gradually rise as resource utilization tightened further and as wage pressures became more apparent
[2003-01-01] against that backdrop, longer-term treasury yields declined somewhat while, in private debt markets, a sense of reduced concern about governance issues and perhaps some increased appetite for risk-tak
[2003-01-01] the wilshire index had increased by around 8% since the committee’s april meeting, and although the rise in the eurostoxx index had been less than 5%, german equities had risen by almost 10%.
[2003-01-01] in the public sector, the pay review body awards, which took effect in april, had averaged about 0.5 percentage points less than in 2002.
[2003-01-01] french consumer expenditure on manufactured goods had increased by 1.6% in december compared with the previous month.
[2003-01-01] another problem related to certain tax proposals under consideration in the congress, notably the exclusion of dividends from income, that could have adverse consequences for the revenues of numerous
[2003-01-01] Participants commented that an increase in inflation from recent rates could have especially adverse effects on longer-run economic performance.
[2003-01-01] growing market perceptions that monetary policy would remain stimulative for a longer period than previously anticipated appeared to have contributed to significant declines in interest rates across m
[2003-01-01] longer-term nominal forward interest rates had changed little over the period.
[2003-01-01] but the claimant count measure had fallen by 3,300 in october and the rate had fallen by 0.1 percentage points, the first change for 21 months.
[2003-01-01] We said that we would "aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time" to ensure that it averages 2 percent over time and that inflation expectations stay anchored.
[2003-01-01] that contrasted with earlier months, when part-timers had been the largest component.
[2003-01-01] looking ahead, a number of factors seemed likely to undergird consumer spending, including the positive effects on permanent incomes of robust ongoing growth in productivity, the possibly accelerated
[2003-01-01] With the risks to the forecast for economic activity tilted to the downside, the risks to the inflation projection were also viewed as having a downward skew.
[2003-01-01] consistent with the decision made at the march meeting, the vote did not formally encompass the wording of the press statement to be released shortly after this meeting.
[2003-01-01] With today's action, the real federal funds rate--measured as the difference between the nominal funds rate and a moving average of core PCE inflation--would move slightly into positive territory.
[2003-01-01] In particular, incoming data and anecdotal information indicated that economic activity had appreciably more forward momentum than previously perceived and that inflation pressures could be intensifyi
[2003-01-01] by contrast, market participants did not expect the federal open markets committee to raise us interest rates until well into 2004.
[2003-01-01] We include these types of price terms today in our forecasting equations, and they are important to forming our views of the inflation outlook and thus to the policy process.
[2003-01-01] These decisions can then push up prices even more and make inflation harder to get under control.
[2003-01-01] the cbi/grant thornton service sector survey, however, had pointed to mixed prospects for the service sector.
[2003-01-01] We take the level of the stock market into account when we consider the economic outlook and monetary policy.
[2003-01-01] domestic demand had also risen by 0.4% on the quarter, with the change in inventories making no contribution to gdp growth.
[2003-01-01] mean inflation expectations, in hm treasury’s survey for 2002 q4, had risen to 2.4% in december, from 2.3% in november.
[2003-01-01] I believe the current move can be justified in a forward-looking variant of the Taylor Rule, where today's policy depends on the forecast of future output gaps and inflation.
[2003-01-01] but the three-month annualised growth rate had fallen slightly further, to 13.8% in february from 13.9% in january, having peaked at 14.6% in october 2002.
[2003-01-01] This equation relates inflation to, among other factors, lagged inflation, resource utilization, and movements in the relative price of imports excluding energy, semiconductors, and computers.
[2003-01-01] but the dollar depreciated, on net, over the remainder of the intermeeting period, reflecting concerns about an escalation of trade frictions prompted by the u.s. imposition of import quotas on chines
[2003-01-01] This difficulty of forecasting inflation has important implications, as we shall see.
[2003-01-01] concurrently, however, weakness persisted in business capital expenditures, which members continued to view as the critical factor inhibiting the economic expansion.
[2003-01-01] members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level.
[2003-01-01] The unemployment rate was likely to remain low going forward, and various participants remarked that there were some indications that further strengthening in overall labor market conditions was possi
[2003-01-01] To measure productivity and standards of living we need measures of output but, to measure output, we need to be able to define products clearly and in terms of units that do not change from one perio
[2003-01-01] Even with generous allowances for structural change, labor utilization would seem to be at a level that might eventually begin to put persistent and growing pressure on labor costs and prices.