yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2003-08-12] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2003-08-12] But like Governor Bernanke, I think we need to work on how we talk about our assessments and judgments regarding the economy and our objectives going forward, without perhaps being very specific.
[2003-08-12] I don't believe the size of those countries, which is fairly modest, would be large enough to explain what we've seen.
[2003-09-15] Second, I think we should try to accelerate the release of the minutes whatever we do with the statement.
[2003-09-15] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee August 12, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingto
[2003-09-15] Let's see if we can get most of that out of the way and completed this evening, if possible.
[2003-09-16] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 16, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washin
[2003-09-16] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-09-16: target=+3.40 bp, path=-1.30 bp
[2003-09-16] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2003-09-16] We thought we had solved this problem, but we've been making consistent errors in underforecasting the strength of productivity.
[2003-10-28] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee October 28, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingt
[2003-10-28] Well, I would say that, on one level, rapid growth in aggregate supply only raises the bar for the growth of aggregate demand that the Committee should desire to get the outcomes it wants.
[2003-10-28] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-10-28: target=+3.90 bp, path=-24.40 bp
[2003-10-28] The first question is, Is there any clear preference as to the basic structure of the assessment of the outlook?
[2003-10-28] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2003-10-28] That's a component of the Gramlich memo that I find particularly appealing.
[2003-12-09] If it is indeed is telling us something, it's obviously very important for policy.
[2003-12-09] Brian also mentioned hedging demands, but we think that was probably a relatively short-lived effect.
[2003-12-09] We think we see the exchange value of the dollar showing through to the gold prices, for example, and we think we see it in some commodity prices.
[2003-12-09] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent. The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled
[2003-12-09] Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee December 9, 2003 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washingt
[2003-12-09] GSS factor decomposition for 2003-12-09: target=+0.20 bp, path=+13.90 bp
[2004-01-01] and canadian employment and sales data were strong in the fourth quarter, with the housing sector continuing to make a significant contribution to growth.
[2004-01-01] Inflation compensation for 2007 declined modestly, perhaps reflecting the further drop in spot energy prices, but was largely unchanged at longer maturities.
[2004-01-01] This was a somewhat sharper effect than was anticipated at the beginning of the year and accounts for a small part of the forecast error on inflation.
[2004-01-01] although the committee's decision to raise the intended level of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points was widely anticipated in financial markets, the accompanying statement was read as setting a
[2004-01-01] Such forces can also cause short-term fluctuations in the economy that are, at least in part, beyond the control of monetary policy.
[2004-01-01] Accelerating productivity poses a significant complication for economic forecasting.
[2004-01-01] While prices in equity markets had turned up from their recent lows, the cumulative losses in financial wealth incurred since early 2000 clearly were having an adverse impact on expenditures by househ
[2004-01-01] The distortions in the markets I have reviewed do not appear all that large, given the stance of monetary policy, and should we experience much higher interest rates and softer asset prices our resili
[2004-01-01] Participants also generally agreed that the recent data had not led them to significantly change their outlooks for the most likely rates of economic growth and inflation in coming quarters.
[2004-01-01] Looking ahead, the projected slowing in the growth of final sales, including the effects of weak export markets, likely would reinforce business efforts to bring the growth of their inventories into b
[2004-01-01] Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, held down in part by the effects of declines in energy and non-energy import prices.
[2004-01-01] Those developments included a recent uptick in core measures of consumer prices, a drop in the dollar on foreign exchange markets, and still elevated energy prices--all against the backdrop of longer-
[2004-01-01] This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points.
[2004-01-01] However, nothing prevents a central bank from switching its focus from the price of reserves to the quantity or growth of reserves.
[2004-01-01] However, in this framework, the current period appears to be an outlier.4 That is, even after factoring in the current-cycle dynamics of strong profit growth and relatively modest investment, a good p
[2004-01-01] real government consumption had risen by 1.0% and whole-economy investment had risen by 1.4%.
[2004-01-01] The fundamental price of an asset typically is defined in terms of the discounted present value of the income stream or equivalent services that the asset is expected to provide over time.
[2004-01-01] While participants viewed the downside risks to their forecasts of economic activity over the projection period as having diminished, their assessment of the most likely outcomes for economic activity
[2004-01-01] As a result, national saving increased, providing further impetus to economic growth.
[2004-01-01] However, the available measures of expectations--whether from surveys or financial markets--have shown longer-term expectations increasing very little, if at all, throughout this period, providing som
[2004-01-01] A majority of FOMC participants indicated that they expect core inflation to remain below our 2 percent objective and employment to fall short of its maximum level at least through the end of 2022.
[2004-01-01] For example, wages and prices that are set for some period in the future will of necessity embody the inflation expectations of the parties to the negotiation
[2004-01-01] Although the rate of pass-through from the higher prices of energy and other commodities to core consumer price inflation appears to have remained relatively low, the cumulative increases in energy an
[2004-01-01] household consumption had grown slightly faster than income in q1, such that the household saving ratio had fallen to 6.1% in q1, from 6.4% in 2003 q4.
[2004-01-01] Looking to the future, however, the members generally agreed that the risks were in the direction of a heightening in inflation pressures despite their belief that growth in overall demand now seemed
[2004-01-01] The current global environment highlights the importance of having strong analytic and empirical foundations to understand financial stability considerations for monetary policy, and the research pres
[2004-01-01] it was noted that a slowdown in the rate of increase in home prices going forward might lead households to increase their desired saving.
[2004-01-01] For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerb
[2004-01-01] the us dollar effective exchange rate index (eri) had fallen by 4.1% since the committee's previous meeting.
[2004-01-01] Such a jump could raise core inflation temporarily if it is passed through to other prices or if it contributes to increasing inflation expectations.
[2004-01-01] The implication is that trend productivity and, ultimately, potential growth are lower than expected.
[2004-01-01] The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financ
[2004-01-01] a31 in manufacturing, the cips output balance had fallen slightly, to 58.3, in january, from 58.4 in december.
[2004-01-01] Although personally I have no doubt that quantification of the price stability objective is fully consistent with the current dual mandate, I also appreciate the delicate issues of communication raise
[2004-01-01] Even after adjusting for the effects of strikes on reported payrolls, the employment report for August showed weak job gains.
[2004-01-01] Subsequent to monetary union, harmonized consumer prices can be used as the best available measure of inflation in the Euro area.
[2004-01-01] a23 the nationwide house price index had risen by 2.1% in april, while the halifax house price index had risen by 1.8%.
[2004-01-01] According to the Taylor Rule, the federal funds rate should adjust over time to changes in utilization rates (the gap between actual and potential output or between the unemployment rate and NAIRU) an
[2004-01-01] The implications of the spread of e-money for monetary policy would arise from the substitution of e-money for both currency and deposits, shrinking the size of the monetary base.
[2004-01-01] the employment cost index for private compensation advanced moderately in the year ending the third quarter, and the markup of prices over labor costs remained somewhat elevated.
[2004-01-01] A more-timely data source, average hourly earnings, decelerated slightly to a 4.4 percent annual rate over the third quarter, down from 4.6 percent annual growth in the second quarter.
[2004-01-01] But, as a consequence of low interest rates, the servicing requirement for that debt relative to homeowners' income is roughly in line with the historical average.
[2004-01-01] spending on office buildings and manufacturing structures continued to be depressed by high vacancy rates, while outlays for commercial buildings moved up in conjunction with declines in vacancy rates
[2004-01-01] Regarding the ELB, the previous statement was silent on the global decline in neutral policy rates, the likelihood that the ELB will constrain monetary policy space in economic downturns, and the impl
[2004-01-01] Referring to monetary policy developments in the 1980s, Greenspan writes: In recognition of the lag in monetary policy's impact on economic activity, a preemptive response to the potential for buildin
[2004-01-01] Looking ahead, the anticipated pickup in employment and related gains in incomes, undergirded by continued robust growth in structural productivity, was seen as supporting further expansion in consume
[2004-01-01] final domestic demand growth in germany had been relatively weak since early 1999.
[2004-01-01] Analysis suggests it could take many years with a formal AIT rule to return the price level to target following a lower-bound episode, and a mechanical AIT rule is likely to become increasingly diffic
[2004-01-01] For example, although a number of features of Brazilian law promote the independence of the nation's central bank, the bank's de facto independence may be limited by the power of the president to remo
[2004-01-01] construction output growth had been revised down to 2.0%, from 2.5%.
[2004-01-01] some members also considered arguments for raising the repo rate by 25 basis points.
[2004-01-01] The drop in demand leads, in turn, to a decline in actual output relative to its potential, that is, the level of output that the economy can produce at the maximum sustainable level of employment.
[2004-01-01] Remarkably, 30-year Treasury yields were only slightly lower than 10-year yields throughout the episode, implying that the markets had no confidence that inflation would ever return to 1950s or 1960s
[2004-01-01] Participants agreed that the labor market had remained strong over the intermeeting period and that economic activity had risen at a moderate rate.
[2004-01-01] The delays often reflected concerns about the putative costs and risks of these policies, such as stoking high inflation and impairing market functioning.
[2004-01-01] As a result, recent high inflation readings are transitory and not broad based.
[2004-01-01] real consumption and retail sales had both risen in july following falls in june, with increased spending across many categories, including motor vehicles, but some of the indicators for august were m
[2004-01-01] For example, households have been able with increasing ease to extract equity from their homes, and this doubtless has helped support consumer spending in recent years, complementing the traditional e
[2004-01-01] An intuitive way of thinking about this rise and fall in inflation persistence is that it resulted from an un-anchoring of trend inflation during the period of the Great Inflation, and a re-anchoring
[2004-01-01] In light of the robust expansion of capital spending thus far this year, the outlook for business investment spending was revised up appreciably, as more of the strength over the latter part of 2004 w
[2004-01-01] it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday, may 4, 2004.
[2004-01-01] the members also viewed business inventory investment as likely to provide some support to the economic expansion over the year ahead.
[2004-01-01] Although the Fed hasn't started raising rates or reducing the balance sheet, interest rates have moved up notably.
[2004-01-01] A particular phenomenon that touches on all these issues is the movement of asset prices, especially the prices of equities and residential real estate.
[2004-01-01] There appears to have been some evolution in inflation-targeting regimes toward greater flexibility.
[2004-01-01] For example, core CPI (consumer price inflation) prices fell 0.4 percent in April, the largest monthly decrease since the beginning of the series in 1957.
[2004-01-01] But what if the Fed were actually to propose a soft form of inflation targeting?
[2004-01-01] The dual mandate seems proper and fitting, given that economic costs are incurred both by having inflation stray from its long-run goal and by having output deviate from the economy's potential to pro
[2004-01-01] increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.
[2004-01-01] and it seems to produce results not too different in practice from those associated with central banks that are flexible inflation targeters.
[2004-01-01] But, by June, prices had risen 4 percent over the previous 12 months, ticked up to 4.2 percent in July, and increased further to 4.3 percent in August.
[2004-01-01] For example, as table 1 shows, the collective current account surplus of the Middle East and Africa rose more than $40 billion between 1996 and 2003; it continued to swell in 2004 as oil prices increa
[2004-01-01] euro-area retail sales had fallen in may, but this was a volatile series.
[2004-01-01] the possible downshift in the pace of high-tech spending also raised the possibility of an erosion of profit margins that could result from a slackening in the pace of technology-led productivity grow
[2004-01-01] the us dollar had fallen by 4.5% against the yen but risen by 0.3% against the euro.
[2004-01-01] The first question is whether the degree of easing implemented in response to financial market turbulence and the abrupt downward revision in the forecast should be reassessed in light of the subseque
[2004-01-01] For example, for 2003 as a whole, growth in both the monetary base and M2 should be about equal to growth in nominal GDP.
[2004-01-01] chinese annual consumer price inflation had been unchanged in august, at 5.3%.
[2004-01-01] January 13, 2021 Full Employment in the New Monetary Policy Framework Governor Lael Brainard At the Inaugural Mike McCracken Lecture on Full Employment Sponsored by the Canadian Association for Busine
[2004-01-01] There are a variety of versions of this basic approach, depending on measures of utilization and inflation rates and depending on whether the adjustment is made in response to past and current movemen
[2004-01-01] A second economic rationale that is often advanced for the development of cities and that seems applicable to the Sioux Falls experience is that of labor market pooling--the ability of an industry to
[2004-01-01] As a result, deregulation, globalization, and innovation have made it easier for citizens to move their wealth out of nominal assets in their local currency and thereby avoid any inflation tax should
[2004-01-01] The dominant force of late appears to have been a significant increase in the structural rate of productivity growth.
[2004-01-01] Relative to the average episode, commercial real estate prices neither fell much during the recession nor rose a lot during the expansion.
[2004-01-01] For example, changes in U.S. short-term interest rates seem to exert a substantial influence on euro area bond yields (Ehrmann, Fratzscher, and Rigobon, 2005
[2004-01-01] The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at roughly a 30 percent annual rate.
[2004-01-01] other indicators suggested continuing robust growth in consumption.
[2004-01-01] a key question was whether the current low level of cpi inflation reflected underlying changes in the economy, such as an increase in productivity growth, that the committee had underestimated and whi
[2004-01-01] external demand growth might slacken, in particular if oil prices were to rise even more sharply.
[2004-01-01] Even so, most members viewed a slowing to a rate closer to most estimates of the growth of the economy's potential as a reasonable expectation.
[2004-01-01] Participants agreed to continue to explore ways to increase transparency and clarity in the Committee's policy communications, and they indicated a willingness to look into modifications to the SEP. A
[2004-01-01] first, cpi inflation was at present significantly below target and, on the central projection, would remain below it for most of the next two years.
[2004-01-01] The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation.
[2004-01-01] a27 turning to indicators of expenditure in 2004 q4, retail sales volumes had fallen by 0.4% in october, following strong growth in august and september.
[2004-01-01] furthermore, annual growth in regular pay per hour had remained stable.
[2004-01-01] retail sales had risen only modestly in november, but there was anecdotal evidence that while sales growth had also been slow early in december it had picked up close to christmas, partly encouraged b
[2004-01-01] annual growth of m4 lending (excluding the effects of securitisations) had increased, to 13.8% in august, from 12.7% in july.
[2004-01-01] Such departures of expectations from perfect rationality can be an important source of observed inflation dynamics.
[2004-01-01] As we all know, starting in late February or March of last year, widespread economic and social lockdowns and other effects of the pandemic caused the swiftest and deepest contraction in employment an
[2004-01-01] Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employmen
[2004-01-01] This volatility can impede the effective implementation of monetary policy, and we are addressing it.
[2004-01-01] Just as in the earlier analysis of Ammer and Freeman, this analysis suggested that in all three countries the inflation targeting led to a drop in inflation and nominal interest rates.
[2004-01-01] the weak us non-farm payrolls data for february and the madrid bombings had triggered falls in rates, but the strong us payrolls data for march had led to increases.
[2004-01-01] the annual rate of growth of credit card lending had fallen to 17.2%, from 17.6% in december, and the annual rate of growth of other unsecured lending had risen to 10.7%, from 10.2% in december.
[2004-01-01] market expectations of official uk rates implied by overnight indexed swap rates had been that uk official rates would be increased by 25 basis points at the may meeting.
[2004-01-01] This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financi
[2004-01-01] As a result, consistent with the policy implication of Bill's 1970 model, the Federal Reserve (like most other central banks) today uses the overnight interbank rate as the principal operating target
[2004-01-01] Assisted by the whole array of market prices, entrepreneurs seek to identify the types of products and services that individuals will value, especially the added value placed on products and services
[2004-01-01] An important element in interpreting financial market prices is the identification of the risk premiums they contain.
[2004-01-01] A number of commodity price indexes have indeed risen sharply over the past couple of years, including a large jump in the past several months.
[2004-01-01] the economic data in the united states, and the consumer price index (cpi) figures in the united kingdom, had been weaker than the market had expected.
[2004-01-01] This evaluation assumed continued sluggish growth in final demand during the period immediately ahead.
[2004-01-01] For example, the shift in manufacturing production from artisanal shops in the mid-1800s to factories after the Civil War led to a disproportionate increase in the demand for unskilled labor to operat
[2004-01-01] however, anecdotal information suggested that many firms remained quite cautious about expanding payrolls, citing, among other factors, continued uncertainty about economic prospects and the high cost
[2004-01-01] respondents were unanimous that if the repo rate were to be left unchanged this month, it would be raised in may.
[2004-01-01] a17 the twelve-month growth rate of notes and coin, adjusted for special factors, had risen to 6.0% in october, from 5.8% in september.
[2004-01-01] Expansion of these two monetary aggregates was supported by further rapid expansion in the demand for currency and stronger inflows to retail money market funds at a time of weakness in U. S. bond and
[2004-01-01] Looking ahead, some growth in overall consumer spending appeared likely in association with the now more firmly entrenched economic expansion.
[2004-01-01] In light of the economic outlook, almost all members agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic
[2004-01-01] The cutback in residential construction has directly reduced the annual rate of U.S. economic growth about 3/4 percentage point on average over the past year and a half.
[2004-01-01] a5 between 7 april and 5 may, the ftse all-share index had risen by 1.6% in local currency terms, while the other major international indices had fallen – the s&p 500, topix and the dow jones euro sto