yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1998-01-01] However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its
[1998-01-01] since it remained above the 50 ‘no change’ level, it signalled further expansion in manufacturing activity, but the export orders balance fell below the 50 threshold for the first time since september
[1998-02-04] Maybe it will be more productive this time in the sense that we will have a longer period of low inflation to observe.
[1998-02-04] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-02-04: target=+1.90 bp, path=+5.40 bp
[1998-03-31] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-03-31: target=+1.10 bp, path=+2.60 bp
[1998-03-31] The rest of us play a game where the ratios mean something, but for the Japanese banks they really do not.
[1998-03-31] It may turn out that the message is not what we want at the time it actually appears.
[1998-05-19] In that regard, the only really interesting statistic that we have is the response to a question we asked the purchasing managers, namely whether in their judgment the inventories of manufacturers' cu
[1998-05-19] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-05-19: target=+0.20 bp, path=+0.50 bp
[1998-07-01] I would put it to Don Kohn to do the following if everyone is in agreement--[Laughter]
[1998-07-01] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-07-01: target=+3.60 bp, path=+0.40 bp
[1998-07-01] In that regard, I would retain the tilt toward tightening as well.
[1998-08-18] So, I would have a slight preference for an asymmetric directive but I can support a symmetric directive.
[1998-08-18] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-08-18: target=+3.10 bp, path=-0.90 bp
[1998-09-29] That seems a little surprising given what happens to the equity market and particularly with the coefficient that you have in terms of net worth.
[1998-09-29] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-09-29: target=+9.40 bp, path=-5.30 bp
[1998-09-29] They would take the loan portfolio and point to the vulnerabilities and strengths of the borrowers and give their evaluations of the risks that were involved.
[1998-09-29] I don't think anyone had seen one before the weekend of September 19 and 20.
[1998-10-15] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-10-15: target=-24.00 bp, path=-22.60 bp
[1998-11-17] And as you and I were discussing before the meeting, it will only get worse next year in the Y2K environment.
[1998-11-17] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-11-17: target=+1.30 bp, path=+1.40 bp
[1998-11-17] Let me also say something that I have said before on other aspects of what we do.
[1998-11-17] I have two other items, which I hope can go a little more quickly.
[1998-12-22] GSS factor decomposition for 1998-12-22: target=+2.90 bp, path=-0.30 bp
[1999-01-01] No matter the near-term path of reducing accommodation, the FOMC must respond decisively to the data so as to maintain our credibility that we will bring down inflation.
[1999-01-01] there was time to wait and see if signs of earnings and price pressures emerged.
[1999-01-01] the annual rate of growth had fallen to 0.7%, the lowest rate since 1992.
[1999-01-01] First, tightening will in all likelihood occur in the context of a more firmly established economic recovery in the United States so that any adverse effects on EME financial conditions should be buff
[1999-01-01] In its accompanying statement, the Committee indicated that, despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appeared solid.
[1999-01-01] Whether one looks at trailing or forward price-to-earnings ratios, equity risk premiums, or option prices, there is little basis for arguing that markets show excessive optimism about future returns.
[1999-01-01] but it usually was at that time of year, so underlying conditions were difficult to assess.
[1999-01-01] a30 according to the labour force survey (lfs), there had been a sharp increase in employment of 110,000 (0.4%) in q3, following growth of 0.2% in q2.
[1999-01-01] more generally, the pass-through from unit labour costs to prices was not straightforward.
[1999-01-01] developments in this area would require continued monitoring, although they were not yet a cause for concern.
[1999-01-01] It is important to recognize the importance of moving interest rates in response to changing conditions and the potential for destabilizing policy when policy resists the natural tendency for interest
[1999-01-01] and several of the bank’s agents had been told of a rise in late payments by small and medium-sized firms.
[1999-01-01] employment growth had been strong in february, but had weakened in march.
[1999-01-01] the federation of recruitment and employment services survey had also suggested that the demand for employees was falling.
[1999-01-01] Their key finding, illustrated in figure 3, is that Federal Reserve policy rate surprises attributed to stronger U.S. growth generally have only moderate spillovers to EM financial conditions, whereas
[1999-01-01] Here in the United States, my colleague Governor Mike Kelley has stated that we are likely to see some disruptions to economic activity because of Year 2000 problems but the effects are likely to be t
[1999-01-01] Despite the uncertainties, the consensus estimates of the NAIRU and the growth of potential give us a hint about what type of landing we should be aiming for and which of the scenarios depicted in fig
[1999-01-01] Market-based measures of inflation compensation have also picked up.
[1999-01-01] the amendment was made necessary by the change in the language of the directive.
[1999-01-01] One participant suggested that the Committee could announce an additional, lower set of thresholds for inflation and unemployment
[1999-01-01] a19 most of the upward revision to the expenditure measure had come from consumption and investment.
[1999-01-01] While a constant rate of money growth will not always be optimal, if money demand is sufficiently stable, and not particularly interest sensitive, it will pin down inflation in the long run and help s
[1999-01-01] accordingly, the committee voted to incorporate the following statement regarding the 1999 and 2000 ranges in its domestic policy directive: the federal open market committee seeks monetary and financ
[1999-01-01] producer prices of finished goods also were affected by the volatility of energy prices in april and may, but core producer prices recorded only a small rise in each month.
[1999-01-01] claimant count unemployment had declined by 22,300 in august; the rate had fallen by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, its lowest rate since march 1980.
[1999-01-01] One participant remarked that, with inflation having run consistently below 2 percent in recent years and market-based measures of inflation compensation still low, postponing an increase in the targe
[1999-01-01] Greater rates of productivity growth in the United States, compared with still-subdued rates abroad, have apparently engendered comparable differences in risk-adjusted expected rates of return and hen
[1999-01-01] some market-based measures of inflation expectations and inflation risk suggested continuing concern among market participants about the risk of higher medium-term inflation, perhaps reflecting large
[1999-01-01] the lagged effects of the earlier rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar were expected to place continuing, though diminishing, restraint on the demand for u.s. exports for some period ahead
[1999-01-01] export prices had risen more sharply - by 0.7% to all countries in april and by 0.5% to non-eu countries in may.
[1999-01-01] Survey and market measures of long-term inflation expectations did not suggest that the earlier higher inflation readings were going to persist.
[1999-01-01] they acknowledged that the timing and extent of a potential rise in inflation were subject to considerable uncertainty.
[1999-01-01] With longer-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, changes in commodity and import prices expected to be modest, and significant resource slack persisting over the forecast period, infla
[1999-01-01] With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and
[1999-01-01] housing activity softened somewhat over the summer but has remained at a high level.
[1999-01-01] indications for domestic demand in q3 remained strong, judging by the retail sales data, the cbi distributive trades survey, and reports from the bank’s regional agents, but the gfk consumer confidenc
[1999-01-01] the governor invited members of the committee to vote on the proposition that the bank’s repo rate be cut by 0.50% to 5.5%.
[1999-01-01] the amendments also removed the central banks of austria, belgium, denmark, england, france, germany, italy, japan, netherlands, norway, sweden, and switzerland, and the bank for international settlem
[1999-01-01] inventory levels and the inventory/shipments ratio had both fallen in december.
[1999-01-01] Participants' forecasts for economic growth for 2012 and 2013 were largely unchanged from their January projections and continued to indicate expectations that the recovery will strengthen somewhat ov
[1999-01-01] You might ask: Does successful monetary policymaking really require all this additional knowledge?
[1999-01-01] This supports the view that there has been an increase in trend productivity growth.
[1999-01-01] Yet, with a few exceptions, the available data show that productivity growth in other advanced countries has not increased to the extent seen in the United States.
[1999-01-01] second, it was plausible, judging from the reports of the bank’s regional agents and from surveys, that earnings growth would be lower in 1999 than in 1998, contrary to the assumption used in the comm
[1999-01-01] The unmooring of inflation expectations greatly complicated the process of making monetary policy
[1999-01-01] This term has been interpreted by many observers to mean that the Committee's reaction function aimed to be symmetric on either side of the 2 percent inflation goal, and that the FOMC set policy with
[1999-01-01] In fact, the low funds rate has been necessary to promote growth that, to date, has been just sufficient to begin reducing substantial margins of slack in resource utilization.
[1999-01-01] all transactions in foreign currencies undertaken under paragraph 1a.
[1999-01-01] residential housing activity continued to display substantial strength in the fourth quarter.
[1999-01-01] Subsequently, the expected future path of monetary policy dropped amid increasing concerns about the health of financial institutions.
[1999-01-01] When the government runs deficits, it siphons off private savings (reducing national saving), leaving less available for capital investment.
[1999-01-01] in the united states, consumer price inflation fell to 2.0%, from 2.3% in april; for japan, may’s figure was -0.4%; and in the euro area inflation on the harmonised measure had fallen back to 1.0%.
[1999-01-01] survey and asset price evidence had suggested a wider divergence of views on uk rates over the next year or two, based on alternative forecasts for growth and inflation up to 2000.
[1999-01-01] It is now generally recognized that price stability is a prerequisite for the efficient allocation of resources in our economy and, indeed, for fulfilling our ultimate mandate to promote maximum susta
[1999-01-01] One member was persuaded that policy had already become so expansionary that further easing ran an unacceptable risk of exacerbating inflation over time.
[1999-01-01] A European Central Bank analysis concluded that the release of capital buffers increased headroom for banks relative to not only their regulatory thresholds, but also their internal risk controls, and
[1999-01-01] First, with more complete information available, markets will price financial assets more efficiently.
[1999-01-01] Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, as investors responded to strong second-quarter earnings reports and indications that the economy may be stabilizing.
[1999-01-01] This paper develops and estimates a habit persistence consumption asset pricing model in which the sign of the equilibrium covariance between equity and bond returns depends on the reduced-form correl
[1999-01-01] the implications of continued robust growth for the inflation outlook depended critically on judgments about the supply side of the economy.
[1999-01-01] First, we must be mindful that an unexpected slowdown might occur in the growth of productivity.
[1999-01-01] Nevertheless, the path of inflation is the biggest risk to my outlook.
[1999-01-01] the outlook for emerging markets had generally improved, although argentina looked if anything more fragile and problems at daewoo had affected financial markets in korea.
[1999-01-01] With home prices depressed, housing construction was quite subdued and seen as likely to remain so, while investment in nonresidential structures remained low.
[1999-01-01] Participants' assessments of the economic outlook were little changed, with the intermeeting information generally seen as suggesting that economic growth would remain moderate over coming quarters an
[1999-01-01] estimates of short real interest rates could be made by subtracting survey measures of inflation expectations from a corresponding maturity wholesale money market rate.
[1999-01-01] at its meeting on may 18, 1999, the committee adopted a directive that called for maintaining conditions in reserve markets that would be consistent with an unchanged federal funds rate of about 4-3/4
[1999-01-01] With inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee saw no need for tightening policy in the near future.
[1999-01-01] Nonetheless, if the influence of globalization on inflation is as substantial as many claim, we might have expected the standard model to have had difficulty in predicting recent inflation trends.
[1999-01-01] Does the rapid growth in cross-border capital flows limit or even eliminate the ability of domestic monetary policy to affect domestic interest rates?
[1999-01-01] In hindsight, the paths of inflation, real output, stock prices and exchange rates may have seemed preordained, but no such insight existed as we experienced it at the time.
[1999-01-01] In keeping with its usual procedures under the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, the Committee would review its ranges at midyear, or sooner if interim conditions warranted, in light of the growth and velocity be
[1999-01-01] * * * What then are the implications of this largely irreducible uncertainty for the conduct of monetary policy?
[1999-01-01] they cited a variety of statistical and anecdotal signs that could be viewed as harbingers of rising price inflation.
[1999-01-01] * * * As the transcripts of FOMC meetings attest, making monetary policy is an especially humbling activity.
[1999-01-01] the expansion of broad measures of money had moderated in recent months.
[1999-01-01] Here's a wonderful game: Assume that the ECB governing council or the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee replaced the Federal Open Market Committee and made monetary policy in the United Stat
[1999-01-01] a2 the us outlook had remained robust, despite a slowdown in gdp growth in q2.
[1999-01-01] Without the oil shock, policymakers beginning from a period of low interest rates would try to keep the economy on an even growth path as they gradually raised nominal interest rates.
[1999-01-01] manufacturers added slightly to their stocks after two quarters of inventory liquidation.
[1999-01-01] It is important to note, however, that although sound policy undoubtedly helped create the conditions for growth, macroeconomic policy cannot create growth itself.
[1999-01-01] Survey measures of expected future inflation were fairly stable,
[1999-01-01] house prices continued to rise rapidly, with the twelve month rate on both the halifax and nationwide indices above 10%.
[1999-01-01] the euler trade indemnity survey had indicated that competitive pressures had somewhat reduced respondents’ profitability since early 1999.
[1999-01-01] nonetheless, they saw some pickup in inflation as a distinct possibility under anticipated economic conditions and concluded that the directive should indicate that prospective developments were more
[1999-01-01] In my comments today, I will focus on the Fed's efforts to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals amid this upheaval, and suggest how lessons from history and a careful focus on inco
[1999-01-01] It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today.1 I look forward to our conversation, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary polic
[1999-01-01] Broad equity prices rose, adding to their substantial gains since the middle of 2010.
[1999-01-01] With inventories lower, firms were beginning to raise production to meet at least a portion of increased demand, and this adjustment was expected to make an important contribution to economic recovery
[1999-01-01] to be sure, the economy's potential output appeared to be expanding briskly, with much of the impetus provided by accelerating productivity.
[1999-01-01] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account
[1999-01-01] One participant suggested that excess liquidity might be leading to speculation in commodity markets, possibly putting upward pressure on prices.
[1999-01-01] Such a directive would imply that any tightening should be implemented promptly if developments were perceived as pointing to rising inflation.
[1999-01-01] but mortgage equity withdrawal in q2 was still estimated to have been stronger in real terms than at any point since 1991 q4.
[1999-01-01] growth in unit wage costs had risen again in q2, as wages and salaries had grown faster than productivity.
[1999-01-01] Such increases in productivity along with slack in foreign economies contributed to the very strong competition in most markets that was continuing generally to suppress efforts to raise prices.
[1999-01-01] Workers in the lowest-wage quartile face an extremely elevated rate of unemployment of around 23 percent.7 The advent of widespread vaccinations should revive in-person schooling and childcare along w
[1999-01-01] When long-term rates rise in response to a cyclical strengthening, it reflects, in large part, the expectation of higher short-term interest rates.
[1999-01-01] against this background, all the members supported a proposal to maintain an unchanged policy stance and to adopt and announce an asymmetric directive that was tilted toward tightening.
[1999-01-01] Broad equity price indexes were higher over the intermeeting period, amid heightened volatility.
[1999-01-01] Participants' Views on Current Economic Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP gro
[1999-01-01] Depository institutions continued to bid aggressively for 28-day funds at the Term Auction Facility (TAF) during the intermeeting period, and demand for funds was strong at both of the 84-day TAF auct
[1999-01-01] most long-term interest rates changed little over the intermeeting period, but treasury bond yields moved up slightly on balance, apparently in response to incoming data suggesting stronger-than-expec
[1999-01-01] the major uncertainty was the extent to which labor productivity would continue to accelerate and hold down the rise in unit labor costs.
[1999-01-01] the slowdown in the rate of job creation in may was sharper than most commentators had expected, but revisions to march and april data raised the level of non-farm payrolls by 185,000.
[1999-01-01] In his view, historical precedents suggested that prolonged periods of taut labor markets were eventually associated with rising inflation.
[1999-01-01] some moderation in housing starts from recent peak levels appeared likely, however, in the context of the slowing in job and income gains associated with the members' overall forecasts.
[1999-01-01] partly as a consequence, they lack the flexibility for use to drain reserves late during the business day, a flexibility that might be particularly desirable to have in place during the upcoming year-
[1999-01-01] to the extent that the linkage between sterling and the dollar had weakened, sterling’s effective exchange rate might be less susceptible to future movements in the dollar against third currencies.
[1999-01-01] house prices had again been volatile, with the nationwide index recording a strong rise on the month, while the halifax index had fallen.
[1999-01-01] m2 was estimated to have increased for the year through june at a rate somewhat above the committee's annual range and m3 at a rate near the upper end of its range.
[1999-01-01] we project that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation will rise gradually to our symmetric 2 percent objective.
[1999-01-01] a16 the consensus economics forecasts measure of the expected average inflation rate over the next two years had risen since 1999 q1 by 20 basis points, to 2.3% in 1999 q2.
[1999-01-01] euro-area industrial confidence had stabilised in january, close to its historical average.
[1999-01-01] In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will
[1999-01-01] This role is largely a reflection of the New York Fed's responsibility for implementing monetary policy decisions through its open market desk operations.
[1999-01-01] in addition, new orders for durable equipment turned up sharply in the two months.
[1999-01-01] A Framework for Analyzing the Growth of Labor ProductivityA great success story for the American economy has been the resurgence of productivity growth that began around 1995.1 From 1973 to 1995, labo
[1999-01-01] One member anticipated little if any effect on economic growth and unemployment and did not agree that the outlook for economic activity and inflation called for further policy accommodation.
[1999-01-01] part of the pick up in november had reflected special effects, such as a temporary increase in cash holdings relating to government winter allowance payments.
[1999-01-01] Despite further declines in vacancy rates and rising real estate prices, business spending on nonresidential construction also seemed to have been lackluster, with such activity not having changed muc
[1999-01-01] although house prices were rising, so far this seemed consistent with the reduction in interest rates since october.
[1999-01-01] an unchanged range of 3 to 7 percent also was set in february for growth of total domestic nonfinancial debt in 1999.
[1999-01-01] Business contacts in a few Districts reported that they had begun to have some more ability to raise prices to cover higher input costs.
[1999-01-01] a28 labour market inactivity had risen by 71,000 in the three months to july compared with the previous three months, with much of this increase accounted for by the number of people classified as not
[1999-01-01] Here is where unit labor costs, or specifically the relationship between productivity growth and wage increases, would come into play.
[1999-01-01] Martin Baily and Robert Lawrence (2004) present a much more thorough analysis of this issue and come to a similar conclusion.4 To investigate further the relationship between restructuring and labor p
[1999-01-01] movements in sterling over the month appeared largely unrelated to changes in uk yields relative to overseas.
[1999-01-01] even so, the pool of unemployed workers willing to take a job had continued to be drawn down, and it seemed likely to many members that prospective growth in aggregate demand might generate increasing
[1999-01-01] the income and expenditure release of the national accounts also included a sharp fall in the figure for companies’ operating profits in the first quarter, which followed a fall in the fourth quarter.