yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2019-01-01] members shared the assessment that information available since the early june governing council meeting indicated that, while further employment gains and increasing wages continued to underpin the re
[2019-01-01] higher iron ore prices had supported overall export values and the trade surplus had increased to almost 3 per cent of gdp in the march quarter.
[2019-01-01] market participants expected the next moves in policy rates in canada, new zealand and australia to be down.
[2019-01-01] After precipitous drops in March and April, employment rose strongly in May and June as many people returned to work from temporary layoffs.
[2019-01-01] modelling the conditions for the new operations on the design of tltro-ii was seen as a way to ensure their pass-through to the real economy and limit the use of funds for carry trades in government b
[2019-01-01] despite weak reported retail sales conditions generally, on a slightly more positive note some contacts in the bank's liaison program had reported a mild pick-up in retail sales since july.
[2019-01-01] summing up, mr praet noted that financial conditions had eased since the governing council’s march 2019 monetary policy meeting.
[2019-01-01] these measures included closing some unprofitable state-owned firms, restructuring some debt, reducing the size of non-bank financing and reducing non-banks' interactions with banks.
[2019-01-01] in other major economies, the european central bank had indicated that it was prepared to add more monetary stimulus if the outlook for growth and inflation did not improve, including by expanding its
[2019-01-01] regarding the consumption tax hike, a few members expressed the recognition that its effects on private consumption were expected to be smaller than those of the previous hike in 2014, mainly because
[2019-01-01] members noted that the international monetary fund's financial sector assessment program report on the australian financial system was generally positive about the resilience of domestic financial ins
[2019-01-01] the improved outlook for steel demand and stockpiling ahead of the chinese new year had supported prices for iron ore at the end of 2018, and earlier increases in oil prices had boosted liquefied natu
[2019-01-01] it also had to be acknowledged that the carry-over effect from slower growth in the second half of 2018 would in itself entail a lower projection for growth in 2019.
[2019-01-01] financial market pricing implied that the australian cash rate was expected to remain unchanged for a considerable period, with some expectation of a decrease by late 2019.
[2019-01-01] Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September.
[2019-01-01] many participants noted that, since the committee's previous meeting, the economy appeared to have lost some momentum and pointed to a number of factors supporting that view including recent weak indi
[2019-01-01] early in the intermeeting period, bond yields in the advanced foreign economies (afes) plunged and foreign equities declined notably following an increase in u.s.–china trade tensions.
[2019-01-01] however, the pace of job gains so far this year was slower than last year, even after accounting for the anticipated effects of the bureau of labor statistics' benchmark revision to payroll employment
[2019-01-01] members noted that the adjustment in the retail sector had been protracted and had put downward pressure on inflation for some years.
[2019-01-01] it was noted that, while recent data were broadly in line with the baseline scenario and the forces underlying the baseline – such as solid wage growth and rising cost pressures – were still seen as i
[2019-01-01] with regard to prices, both the year-on-year rate of change in the harmonized index of consumer prices (hicp) for all items and that for all items excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco had been
[2019-01-01] however, the governing council should continue to monitor carefully the bank-based transmission channel of monetary policy and the case for mitigating measures.
[2019-01-01] Nonetheless, many participants expressed concern that ongoing developments in the housing market could have a more pronounced impact on consumer and other spending, especially if house prices declined
[2019-01-01] So we want to see that healthy process unfold as we decide what the true state of the economy is, and we think it will evolve in a way that will mean lower inflation.
[2019-01-01] while members judged that lower interest rates were supporting the economy through the usual transmission channels (including a lower exchange rate, higher asset prices and higher cash flows for borro
[2019-01-01] The review of regional economic developments by the Federal Reserve Bank presidents pointed to moderate expansion in economic activity across much of the nation, though growth was described as modest
[2019-01-01] I mean, it really depends on how long it takes for wages and, more than that, prices to come down for inflation to come down.
[2019-01-01] growth in public sector investment had been positive despite a decline in defence spending.
[2019-01-01] first, while the overall outlook remained favorable, there had been signs of deceleration in economic activity in recent quarters, particularly in business fixed investment and manufacturing.
[2019-01-01] regarding global financial markets, members shared the recognition that market participants' risk sentiment had improved, mainly against the background of growing expectations for progress in u.s.-chi
[2019-01-01] it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday-wednesday, april 30-may 1, 2019.
[2019-01-01] as governing council continues to monitor incoming data, it will pay particular attention to developments in the energy sector and the impact of trade conflicts on the prospects for canadian growth an
[2019-01-01] Moreover, it was difficult to anticipate how much the higher food and energy prices might affect inflation expectations and wage demands and thereby potentially become embedded more generally in the p
[2019-01-01] If this high-pressure management inadvertently carried the economy beyond its productive potential, some cost in terms of inflation could be expected,
[2019-01-01] The staff forecast for total PCE price inflation in 2018 was revised up slightly, mainly because of a faster-than-expected increase in consumer energy prices in the second half.
[2019-01-01] as a way of highlighting the growing tension between asset prices and the smooth brexit conditioning assumption, the committee was publishing stylised sensitivities of its latest projections to change
[2019-01-01] on the other hand, concern was expressed that such dichotomies could not last forever and that sooner or later there might be spillovers or contagion from the weakening in manufacturing.
[2019-01-01] on the other hand, slowing job gains might also be indicative of some cooling in labor demand, which may be consistent with an observed decline in the rate of job openings and decreases in other measu
[2019-01-01] So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation.
[2019-01-01] on this basis, the member noted that the current weak developments could again be the start of stagnation in consumption.
[2019-01-01] iron ore prices had declined in response to expectations of lower near-term demand.
[2019-01-01] in addition, cre prices remained high relative to rental income.
[2019-01-01] labour markets in the advanced economies had continued to tighten and wages growth had picked up.
[2019-01-01] elsewhere, the european central bank (ecb) had foreshadowed additional monetary stimulus unless the outlook for inflation in the euro area improved.
[2019-01-01] the statement language was revised to indicate that the committee continued to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near 2 percent as the most l
[2019-01-01] auction clearance rates in sydney and melbourne had picked up over february.
[2019-01-01] global benchmark prices for oil have been about 25 per cent lower than assumed in the october monetary policy report (mpr).
[2019-01-01] the increases in stocks of purchases and finished goods reported in the january ihs markit/cips manufacturing survey had been the highest, or close to the highest, since the survey began in 1992.
[2019-01-01] off-balance sheet financing had continued to decline, reflecting the authorities' efforts to discourage riskier forms of financing.
[2019-01-01] one member expressed the view that, although attention should be paid to, for example, the effects of the recent slowdown in overseas economies on consumer sentiment and other aspects, private consump
[2019-01-01] bank lending conditions for firms and households remained very favourable, even if overall financial conditions had tightened marginally since the governing council’s april monetary policy meeting, la
[2019-01-01] market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
[2019-01-01] If this policy succeeds ex post, inflation expectations become anchored at the new lower level of inflation, and policy can, then, respond to demand shocks by adjusting real rates pro-cyclically, the
[2019-01-01] in addition, some market participants pointed to heightened demand for federal funds at month end by some banks in connection with their efforts to meet liquidity coverage ratio requirements as contri
[2019-01-01] for the second quarter as a whole, both total ip and manufacturing output declined, while mining output rose notably, supported by a strong gain in crude oil extraction.
[2019-01-01] the lagged response to higher housing prices and a period of low building activity had raised the likelihood that dwelling investment would be stronger in the medium term than currently expected.
[2019-01-01] Moreover, if, as some members thought likely, productivity growth slowed as employment picked up, the result could be reductions in slack accompanied by higher unit labor costs and associated pressure
[2019-01-01] however, a number of participants anticipated that the return to 2 percent would take longer than previously projected even with an assumed path for the federal funds rate that was lower than in their
[2019-01-01] Indeed, CPI inflation does appear to have become more sensitive to import prices over time, both in the United States and in other OECD countries (Pain, Koske, and Sollie, 2006).3 Can domestic monetar
[2019-01-01] A couple of participants referred to information from business contacts suggesting that inflation was unlikely to decline further, and a few expressed concerns that maintaining a highly accommodative
[2019-01-01] reference was made in the discussion to a number of factors, including the impact of trade tensions between the united states and china, the threat posed by a trade dispute between the european union
[2019-01-01] So let me talk about the coronavirus specifically, and then I’ll turn more to global growth more generally.
[2019-01-01] a few members pointed out that labor market conditions remained tight, as evidenced, for example, by the unemployment rate remaining at a low level in the range of 2.0-2.5 percent and the active job o
[2019-01-01] You know, it says that we will seek to—seek inflation that runs moderately above 2 percent for some time.
[2019-01-01] another view was that financial stability risks at present are moderate and that the largest banks would continue to maintain very substantial capital cushions in light of a range of regulatory requir
[2019-01-01] I guess I would also urge you to remember that when you look at the projections, that there are many factors that affect those projections, and changes in tax policy—that’s only one of a number of fac
[2019-01-01] these members continued that this showed the resilience of japan's economy against the slowdown in overseas economies.
[2019-01-01] at the same time, negotiated wages had continued to increase, rising from 2.1% in the third quarter of 2018 to 2.2% in the fourth quarter, and further to 2.5% in january 2019.
[2019-01-01] overall, the signals provided by money and credit developments remained positive, as broad money (m3) growth and credit to the private sector were at their highest levels since 2009.
[2019-01-01] regarding the monetary analysis, members widely shared the assessment provided by mr lane in his introduction.
[2019-01-01] members observed that iron ore prices could remain high for some time, but prices were still expected to decline over the medium term.
[2019-01-01] nevertheless, indicators of demand should start to show renewed momentum in early 2019, leading to above-potential growth of 2.1 per cent in 2020.
[2019-01-01] as a result, government bond yields in australia had moved further below those in the united states.
[2019-01-01] eurostat’s second release had put euro area real gdp growth in the third quarter of 2018 at 0.2% in quarter-on-quarter terms, down from 0.4% in each of the previous two quarters.
[2019-01-01] foreign inflation appeared to have moderated a bit in the third quarter, reflecting declines in energy prices.
[2019-01-01] these members continued that, according to reports at the july 2019 meeting of general managers of the bank's branches, for example, business fixed investment had been underpinned by demand for medium
[2019-01-01] the latest pmi survey data had pointed to a further slowing of the growth momentum, in particular in more cyclically sensitive industries, such as capital and intermediate goods.
[2019-01-01] So you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy, and, as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for
[2019-01-01] the member also pointed out that such efforts played a role in consequently constraining price rises through an increase in labor productivity.
[2019-01-01] employment had increased a little in february, following strong growth in january, and the unemployment rate had declined to 4.9 per cent, continuing the run of months with an unemployment rate at or
[2019-01-01] last year’s oil price decline and ongoing transportation constraints have curbed investment and exports in the energy sector.
[2019-01-01] one member noted that close attention should be paid to future developments in germany in particular, mainly because of its strong presence in the european economy, heavy reliance on foreign trade, an
[2019-01-01] the bank rate is correspondingly 2 percent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ percent.
[2019-01-01] in the outlook, private consumption was likely to continue to be pushed down by such effects as of the tax hike for the time being.
[2019-01-01] although the prospects for a partial trade agreement between the united states and china had improved since the previous meeting, the likelihood of a more comprehensive agreement remained uncertain.
[2019-01-01] When, when you get to—in, in the forecast, all of that, you know, supply and demand sides of the economy adapt.
[2019-01-01] members shared the recognition that global financial markets had been regaining stability gradually, as evidenced by developments in stock prices in many economies; specifically, they had declined tow
[2019-01-01] in response, many central banks have signalled a slower pace of monetary policy normalization.
[2019-01-01] members noted that, overall, the bank expected year-ended gdp growth to be 2¾ per cent over 2019 and 2020.
[2019-01-01] the european economy was likely to gradually move out of its deceleration phase as adjustments in the manufacturing sector, which had shown some weakness, progressed.
[2019-01-01] global corporate bond markets had experienced some broad-based repricing.
[2019-01-01] employment is showing continuing strength and wage growth is picking up, although with some variation among regions.
[2019-01-01] a few members said that it was becoming more evident that economic growth had been underpinned by domestic demand, including public investment, as suggested by increases in the amount of public constr
[2019-01-01] Waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road--either too much inflation, financial instability, or both.
[2019-01-01] that slowdown reflects weaker global growth, driven by trade protectionism, and the domestic impact of brexit-related uncertainties.
[2019-01-01] one channel had been via the diversion of resources, with, for example, a number of companies reporting that their senior executive officers had spent time preparing for brexit.
[2019-01-01] nevertheless, many members expressed the recognition that private consumption had been firm, supported in part by a favorable employment and income situation, and the economy maintained its resilience
[2019-01-01] the risk that a global growth slowdown would further weigh on the domestic economy remained prominent.
[2019-01-01] on the other hand, with corporate profits staying at high levels on the whole, business fixed investment has continued on an increasing trend.
[2019-01-01] although it was likely to be affected by the slowdown in overseas economies for the time being, it was projected to continue on a moderate increasing trend thereafter.
[2019-01-01] however, some of these members noted that, regarding the u.s.-china trade negotiations, uncertainty remained as there were issues on which the two countries differed with respect to the partial agreem
[2019-01-01] nevertheless, with central banks expected to maintain expansionary policy settings and risk premiums generally low, global financial conditions remained accommodative.
[2019-01-01] Headline stock price indexes in the AFEs generally ended the period higher, whereas bank stocks in Europe declined.
[2019-01-01] the chair noted that he had asked the subcommittee on communications to consider ways to improve the information contained in the sep and to improve communications regarding the role of the federal fu
[2019-01-01] from a counterpart perspective, this was mirrored in further monetary inflows from outside the euro area, which reflected a recovery in foreign investor demand for euro area assets.
[2019-01-01] The reserve conditions contemplated at this meeting were expected to be consistent with some moderation in the growth of M2 and M3 over coming months.
[2019-01-01] And as I mentioned earlier, the unemployment decline last month was more than 100 percent accounted for by declines in participation.
[2019-01-01] attachment 2 assessment of the momentum toward achieving the price stability target [note 3] the bank of japan judged, at the previous monetary policy meeting (mpm), that it was becoming necessary to
[2019-01-01] So, I think you raise a very important point because, although there is a great deal of market focus on the timing of liftoff, what to matter in thinking about the stance of policy is what the entire
[2019-01-01] The staff forecast prepared for this meeting suggested that economic activity likely would start to turn up early in 2002 as inventory liquidation tapered off, and would gather strength only gradually
[2019-01-01] Moreover, inflation was running at a fairly low rate and quite possibly would edge down a little further over coming quarters.
[2019-01-01] Again, that’s not a forecast, I’ve made a hypothesis, which would imply slower improvement in unemployment.
[2019-01-01] one member pointed out that, if side effects materialized as a result of additional easing, it was necessary to consider methods to mitigate them.
[2019-01-01] since the governing council’s last monetary policy meeting on 11-12 september 2019, the prospect of a breakthrough in the trade negotiations between the united states and china, as well as declining f
[2019-01-01] In addition, the dramatic advances in biotechnology are significantly increasing a broad range of productivity-expanding efforts in areas from agriculture to medicine.
[2019-01-01] members noted that supply concerns in the iron ore market had eased somewhat, and ongoing strength in chinese steel demand had been met by an increase in iron ore imports.
[2019-01-01] We all saw the remarkable price increases and shortages in the used car market.
[2019-01-01] While moderating the pace of purchases and the eventual increase in the federal funds rate may well affect capital flows, interest rates and asset prices in EMEs, the overall macroeconomic effects nee
[2019-01-01] the projection for real gdp growth over the medium term was a little stronger, supported by the effects of a higher projected path for equity prices and a lower trajectory for interest rates.
[2019-01-01] taking this into account, they concurred that it was necessary to reexamine economic and price developments at the next monetary policy meeting, when the october 2019 outlook for economic activity and
[2019-01-01] ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts has undermined business sentiment and activity, contributing to a synchronous slowdown across many countries.
[2019-01-01] In addition, the maximum sustainable levels of output and employment cannot be known with any assurance (Mishkin, 2007b).
[2019-01-01] regarding the outlook, they concurred that it was likely to be affected by the slowdown in overseas economies for the time being but was projected to continue on a moderate increasing trend thereafter
[2019-01-01] Looking ahead, reports from retailer contacts were somewhat mixed; many anticipated relatively depressed holiday sales and where possible were making efforts to limit buildups of holiday merchandise,
[2019-01-01] cpi inflation will likely dip in the third quarter, largely because of the dynamics of gasoline prices, before returning to about 2 per cent by year end.
[2019-01-01] it was also noted that the difference between the low levels of market-based measures and the higher levels of survey-based measures could be explained by a negative risk premium, but it was also argu
[2019-01-01] You can get to 20, if you wanted to, easily, but labor force participation, the unemployment rate, different age groups of—you know, prime-age labor force participation, in particular, gets a lot of f
[2019-01-01] although pay growth has eased somewhat, unit labour costs have continued to grow at rates above those consistent with meeting the inflation target in the medium term.
[2019-01-01] private sector wages growth had picked up further in the december quarter, consistent with the bank's forecasts and survey evidence that a significant share of firms were finding it difficult to attra
[2019-01-01] this implies that the current modest output gap will narrow over the projection horizon.
[2019-01-01] With unemployment still elevated and inflation below the Committee’s longer-run objective, the Committee is continuing its highly accommodative policies.
[2019-01-01] wage dynamics appeared to have gained momentum since the turn of 2017-18, with annual growth in compensation per employee reaching 2.9% in the third quarter of 2018.
[2019-01-01] in the united states, the effect of receding uncertainty surrounding brexit and trade had been partially offset by changes in near-term monetary policy expectations in response to weaker economic data
[2019-01-01] concerning the composition of the app, there was broad agreement that all its constituent programmes should remain active during the reinvestment phase.
[2019-01-01] policy is responding to the slowdown: central banks in the us and europe have signalled their readiness to provide more accommodative monetary policy and further policy stimulus has been implemented i
[2019-01-01] participants observed that the recent partial federal government shutdown had presented a significant hardship for many families.
[2019-01-01] A few members expressed interest in using language specifying a period of time during which the federal funds rate was expected to remain exceptionally low, rather than a calendar date, arguing that s
[2019-01-01] Increased rates and a smaller balance sheet raise the cost of borrowing and thus reduce household and business demand.