yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2020-01-01] overall, gdp was expected to rise by 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, supported by a slightly more positive global backdrop and the reduction in short-term uncertainty observed since the genera
[2020-01-01] the bank also announced new measures to provide additional support to canada’s financial system.
[2020-01-01] as permitted under the bank of england act 1998, as amended by the bank of england and financial services act 2016, diana noble was present on 20 january, as an observer for the purpose of exercising
[2020-01-01] the long-term interest rate: the bank will purchase a necessary amount of jgbs without setting an upper limit so that 10-year jgb yields will remain at around zero percent.
[2020-01-01] whole‑economy total labour costs divided by gdp at constant prices, based on the mode of the mpc’s gdp backcast.
[2020-01-01] on average, external forecasters expect inflation to return gradually towards the target over the forecast period, reaching 2% at the three-year horizon (chart b).
[2020-01-01] overseas economies have been depressed significantly, reflecting the impact of the covid-19 pandemic.
[2020-01-01] they noted that the economic recovery thus far had been stronger than anticipated—suggesting greater momentum in economic activity than had been previously thought—but viewed the more recent indicator
[2020-01-01] Returns on indexed bonds are tied to forecasts of specific published price indexes, which may or may not reflect the market's judgment of the future purchasing power of money.
[2020-01-01] the necessary efforts to contain the covid-19 pandemic have caused a sudden and deep contraction in economic activity and employment worldwide.
[2020-01-01] credit card balances contracted at a slower rate in june and july than in the spring.
[2020-01-01] members noted that the risks around the wage and price inflation forecasts were evenly balanced.
[2020-01-01] in financial markets, this has driven a flight to safety and a sharp repricing of a wide range of assets.
[2020-01-01] members shared the view that the european economy had picked up from a state of significant depression.
[2020-01-01] But now, let’s go to your—the part of your question about inflation.
[2020-01-01] the prices of most commodities, including oil, have risen from very low levels.
[2020-01-01] looking ahead, canadian business investment and exports are expected to contribute modestly to growth, supported by stronger global activity and demand.
[2020-01-01] although different views were expressed about these scenarios, it was generally considered that, of the three scenarios presented, the “mild” scenario was probably already too optimistic.
[2020-01-01] the positive vaccine news also supported risk sentiment abroad, leading many global equity price indexes to advance and the u.s. dollar to depreciate further.
[2020-01-01] In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic act
[2020-01-01] One involves the so-called zero bound on nominal interest rates; the other involves labor markets.
[2020-01-01] Since inflation is unacceptably high, it doesn't make sense to have the nominal federal funds rate below near-term inflation expectations.
[2020-01-01] one early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in march, with more than one million jobs lost across canada.
[2020-01-01] Slump in foreign domestic demand I would like to turn now to developments at the global level that may have helped to widen the U.S. current account deficit.
[2020-01-01] members concurred that overseas economies had been depressed significantly, reflecting the impact of the covid-19 pandemic.
[2020-01-01] In the textbook world of Mundell-Fleming, unanticipated monetary ease leads to lower interest rates, a drop in the home currency's value, and a stimulus to net exports.
[2020-01-01] the intermeeting averages of the effective federal funds rate and the secured overnight financing rate remained unchanged from the previous intermeeting period averages, at 9 basis points and 8 basis
[2020-01-01] summing up, mr lane remarked that the spread of the coronavirus was a major shock to the world and the euro area economies, with severe near-term implications for aggregate expenditure levels and supp
[2020-01-01] sovereign spreads in emerging markets had also increased measurably over the past few weeks, by around 160 basis points.
[2020-01-01] either investors were sanguine about the long-term repercussions of the crisis and expected a v-shaped recovery with no protracted effects on growth, or they were finding it difficult to price in the
[2020-01-01] in particular, the automobile sector and industrial production were still declining in the euro area’s largest economy, which would affect other countries, in part via value chain linkages.
[2020-01-01] I’m more concerned about that than about the possibility, which exists, of higher inflation.
[2020-01-01] For instance, monetary policymakers must accurately assess how disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and flooding affect labor markets, household and business spending, output, and prices.7 In deci
[2020-01-01] new results from the dmp suggested that the majority of companies reviewed their investment decisions at least once a quarter or more frequently, although a majority also took over one quarter to impl
[2020-01-01] high economic uncertainty was seen to weigh on consumption, with the level of precautionary savings in particular being dependent on developments in household confidence.
[2020-01-01] The risk of higher inflation in this environment has two dimensions.
[2020-01-01] The Outlook for Economic ActivityThe midpoint of the range of projections for real GDP growth declines noticeably from about 2-1/2 percent for 2007 to roughly 2 percent in 2008; then it returns to abo
[2020-01-01] the bank has lowered its target for the overnight rate 150 basis points over the last three weeks, to its effective lower bound.
[2020-01-01] also, the us dollar and japanese yen had appreciated, while the chinese renminbi had depreciated.
[2020-01-01] the canadian economy is starting to recover as it re-opens from the shutdowns needed to limit the virus spread.
[2020-01-01] late in the period, equity prices retraced some of their gains, as concerns about the spread of the coronavirus weighed negatively on risk sentiment.
[2020-01-01] the year-on-year rate of change in the cpi (all items less fresh food) is likely to be negative for the time being, mainly affected by covid-19 and the past decline in crude oil prices.
[2020-01-01] moreover, the potential financial stability implications of the current monetary policy environment were seen to merit close monitoring.
[2020-01-01] And it is not—it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening
[2020-01-01] even with the relaxation of some covid-related restrictions on economic activity, a degree of precautionary behaviour by households and businesses is likely to persist.
[2020-01-01] on this issue, participants judged there to be a great deal of uncertainty and expressed concerns about the possibility that an early reopening would contribute to a significant increase of infections
[2020-01-01] return to text attachment october 29, 2020bank of japan statement on monetary policy at the monetary policy meeting held today, the policy board of the bank of japan decided upon the following.
[2020-01-01] this would be expected to reduce uncertainty about the path of the economy, supporting future spending by households and companies.
[2020-01-01] Rents have grown dramatically, and while home sales have slowed, the continued increasing price of single-family homes indicates to me that rents won't decline anytime in the near future.
[2020-01-01] the bank now estimates growth of 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2020.
[2020-01-01] at the same time, recent survey data, such as production expectations and business confidence, signalled the start of a recovery in the third quarter of 2020, as projected in the june 2020 projections
[2020-01-01] in this environment, the canadian dollar has depreciated since january, although by less than many other currencies.
[2020-01-01] This linkage establishes one important connection between the FOMC's target funds rate and interest rates more broadly.
[2020-01-01] government bond yields had remained very low across advanced economies partly as a result of these purchases and despite strong issuance by governments.
[2020-01-01] also because such actions help to head off undesirable changes in inflation down the road.
[2020-01-01] rental vacancy rates were much lower in perth, where growth in new supply had been relatively modest in recent years and international students accounted for a smaller share of rental housing demand.
[2020-01-01] goods exports, however, had only recovered three-fourths of their decline since january despite brisk growth in agricultural exports.
[2020-01-01] In their review of the outlook for prices, members noted that incoming data over the intermeeting period had shown a slowing in core inflation from the high levels posted earlier in the year, consiste
[2020-01-01] the bushfires over the summer months were expected to have affected growth in both the december quarter 2019 and the march quarter 2020, after which recovery efforts were expected to boost growth.
[2020-01-01] moreover, underlying inflation was weak and would likely be well below 1% in the second half of 2020.
[2020-01-01] the provincial and corporate bond purchase programs will continue as announced.
[2020-01-01] one member said that continuing with monetary easing by conducting the three measures would support the economy, and thereby lead to achievement of the price stability target.
[2020-01-01] this was in line with the latest average of a range of bank staff estimates, although there remained_ significant uncertainty about the extent of the weakness.
[2020-01-01] the committee discussed how the united kingdom would, through a number of trade and financial channels, be affected by these developments.
[2020-01-01] however, it was also noted that chinese demand for australian iron ore exports remained firm.
[2020-01-01] the intense strains across a range of short-term funding markets that emerged in march had subsided.
[2020-01-01] cpi inflation was at 0.5 percent in september and is expected to stay below the bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices.
[2020-01-01] members stated that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the committee's maximum employment an
[2020-01-01] the bank’s governing council stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary.
[2020-01-01] the bank is also announcing today the development of a new provincial bond purchase program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its provincial money market purchase program.
[2020-01-01] however, underemployment was still high and the recent upswing in new cases of the virus in the northern hemisphere could damage these economies' labour markets in the period ahead.
[2020-01-01] We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back toward
[2020-01-01] And so you’re seeing prices are moving back up off their lows there.
[2020-01-01] percentage changes on a year earlier + – 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 + 0.0 – 0.5 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 sources: eikon from refinitiv, eurostat, oecd, ons and bank calculations.
[2020-01-01] In their discussion of the economic situation and outlook, meeting participants noted that the economic information received since the last meeting pointed to a somewhat more favorable outlook regardi
[2020-01-01] taking into account the foregoing discussion, upon a proposal by the president, the governing council took the following monetary policy decisions: the governing council was fully prepared to increase
[2020-01-01] for canada, the bank now forecasts real gdp will grow by 1.6 percent this year and 2 percent in 2021, following 1.6 percent growth in 2019.
[2020-01-01] with respect to overseas financial markets, along with aggressive macroeconomic policies conducted by each country and region, market sentiment had been improving, reflecting, for example, the easing
[2020-01-01] One branch of economists holds the view that monetary policy should not be influenced by any perceived financial market bubbles.
[2020-01-01] the slowdown in global growth has been broadly based across regions (chart 2.2).
[2020-01-01] market-based indicators of longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area had recovered somewhat since the governing council’s last monetary policy meeting, but remained at subdued levels, with t
[2020-01-01] in light of the significant uncertainty and downside risks associated with the evolution of the coronavirus outbreak, how much the economy would weaken, and how long it would take to recover, the staf
[2020-01-01] euro area real gdp had contracted by 11.8%, quarter on quarter, in the second quarter of 2020.
[2020-01-01] to this end, the bank is furthering its efforts with several important steps.
[2020-01-01] more timely payroll data suggested the number of jobs in the weeks up to early august had declined a little, with a notable drop in jobs in victoria.
[2020-01-01] moreover, attention was drawn to complementary support provided on the prudential side aimed at easing conditions in the banking system.
[2020-01-01] members acknowledged that the primary response to the covid-19 outbreak was to manage people's health, but that other arms of policy, including monetary and fiscal policy, would play an important role
[2020-01-01] the uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and the economic consequences of the containment measures had resulted in turbulent financial market developments.
[2020-01-01] the staff observed that the uncertainty related to the future course of the pandemic, the measures to control it, and the associated economic effects remained elevated.
[2020-01-01] the canadian economy has been resilient but indicators since the october monetary policy report (mpr) have been mixed.
[2020-01-01] the approach can be applied equally well by "inflation hawks," "growth hawks," and anyone in between.
[2020-01-01] In their discussion of the economic situation and the outlook, meeting participants agreed that information received over the intermeeting period indicated that the labor market had continued to stren
[2020-01-01] exports and industrial production had declined due to the slowdown in overseas economies since last year, as well as the decrease in external demand, mainly from china, and the effects on the global s
[2020-01-01] The result could be cross-border spillovers from the increase in U.S. domestic demand, reducing the effect on U.S. real activity and inflation and potentially contributing to external imbalances.
[2020-01-01] We have not focused on whether we meet the liftoff test, because we don’t meet the liftoff test now because we’re not at maximum employment.
[2020-01-01] although china's economic activity had gradually been picking up, its capacity utilization in the manufacturing sector had not returned to the level seen prior to the outbreak, and supply chain disrup
[2020-01-01] The second is intermediate-term need for reserve expansion and contraction, arising, for example, from seasonal changes in the demand for currency and reserves.
[2020-01-01] the member then expressed the view that close attention should be paid to future price developments, taking into consideration the possibility that both the natural rate of interest and inflation expe
[2020-01-01] For many years, forecasters could assume a modest, but stable, trend productivity growth rate and fairly predictable growth in the labor force.
[2020-01-01] Critical though this issue is, it does not by itself capture the importance of productivity.
[2020-01-01] it was highlighted that asset purchases were an essential tool with which monetary policy could affect macroeconomic developments and, ultimately, inflation outcomes, via a number of transmission chan
[2020-01-01] the us dollar and japanese yen had depreciated a little, while the chinese renminbi had appreciated.
[2020-01-01] since the may monetary policy report, cpi inflation had been slightly higher than expected, largely reflecting upside news in energy prices.
[2020-01-01] the size of the proposed envelope was calculated to make a significant contribution to offsetting the pandemic-related downward shift in the projected inflation path.
[2020-01-01] the committee judged that the equilibrium unemployment rate remained at around 4¼%.
[2020-01-01] participants stressed that it was important to communicate that the committee would be prepared to increase the size of the securities purchases, as needed, on the basis of its close monitoring of mar
[2020-01-01] In a paper presented at a recent conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Kozicki and Tinsley (2003) develop an empirical model of the economy under the assumptions that the Fed's impl
[2020-01-01] although measures of underlying inflation had generally remained muted, there were indications of a mild increase in line with previous expectations.
[2020-01-01] in that context, public loan guarantees were seen as a crucial element in maintaining credit flows to firms and households.
[2020-01-01] We also said we wouldn’t raise rates just in response to very low unemployment, in the absence of inflation.
[2020-01-01] some members pointed out that a significant increase in the number of corporate bankruptcies had not been observed thus far.
[2020-01-01] Mishkin and Jonas (forthcoming) describe the experiences of the three transition economies with inflation targets.
[2020-01-01] as in the financial crises of 2008 and 1998, the renminbi had remained stable, with foreign exchange reserves having declined a little from high levels.
[2020-01-01] October 19, 2020 U.S. Economic Outlook, Monetary Policy, and Initiatives to Sustain the Flow of Credit to Households and Firms Vice Chair Richard H. Clarida At the Unconventional Convention of the Ame
[2020-01-01] One might even argue that if a central bank ever converged on a single monetary rule, there would be no need for a monetary policy committee.
[2020-01-01] Inflation was still expected to be somewhat higher this year than last year, largely reflecting an upturn in the prices for food and non-energy imports.
[2020-01-01] For these reasons, I have been interested in exploring approaches that expand the space for targeting interest rates in a more continuous fashion as an extension of our conventional policy space and i
[2020-01-01] uk gdp growth slowed materially in 2019 compared to previous years and the mpc judges that there is a margin of spare capacity in the economy.
[2020-01-01] A few participants expressed less confidence in this outlook for inflation and commented that inflation had averaged less than 2 percent over the past several years even as resource utilization had in
[2020-01-01] in particular, in the absence of clear progress toward an agreement on further fiscal stimulus, the staff removed the assumption that an additional tranche of fiscal policy support would be enacted.
[2020-01-01] members noted that the shift from cash to electronic payments is further advanced in australia than in a number of other countries.
[2020-01-01] participants also considered open market operations to purchase treasury securities and agency mbs to support the smooth functioning of these securities markets, which in turn would help support the s
[2020-01-01] Countries differ in this regard, both in formal mandate and in actual practice.12 As an extensive academic literature shows, however, the general approach of inflation targeting is fully consistent wi
[2020-01-01] the global economy is showing signs of stabilization, and some recent trade developments have been positive.
[2020-01-01] machinery orders -- a leading indicator of machinery investment -- had shown signs of bottoming out, mainly for manufacturing, reflecting increases in exports and production.
[2020-01-01] survey indicators of current business prices were weak, but household and uk financial market inflation expectations had remained relatively steady.
[2020-01-01] elsewhere in the region, some central banks had also eased monetary policy, and modest fiscal measures were being deployed in some countries.
[2020-01-01] therefore, there was broad agreement that the governing council should communicate that, on the basis of this updated assessment, it would recalibrate its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that f
[2020-01-01] looking at real gdp for the april-june quarter of 2020 for each economy, which was released during the intermeeting period, many economies experienced record plunges, which reconfirmed that overseas e
[2020-01-01] We are hopeful that Europe will take additional measures and do all that’s necessary to stabilize the situation and to provide the basis for an ongoing stable structure that—in which banks and soverei
[2020-01-01] moreover, primary issuance of investment-grade corporate bonds was sporadic, and that of speculative-grade corporate bonds and leveraged loans virtually stopped after late february.
[2020-01-01] It also requires that policy tighten or ease systematically to bring aggregate demand in line with the economy's productive potential, not only because output stabilization is a policy objective in it
[2020-01-01] the emergence of the second wave of the pandemic could lead to more widespread business closures in a number of sectors, for example retail trade.
[2020-01-01] decisive and necessary fiscal and monetary policy actions have supported incomes and kept credit flowing, cushioning the fall and laying the foundation for recovery.
[2020-01-01] It will include all data relevant to our dual mandate of stable prices and maximum employment.
[2020-01-01] in terms of market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations, the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead currently stood at 1.24%, while in terms of survey-based meas
[2020-01-01] it was also likely that having the various arms of policy all taking steps in the same direction would deliver a greater impact than the sum of the individual parts.
[2020-01-01] one member pointed out that, as a positive output gap pushes up prices for the immediate future, which simultaneously brings about the secondary effect of raising inflation expectations in an adaptive
[2020-01-01] the bank expects inflation will stay around the 2 percent target over the projection horizon, with some fluctuations in 2020 from volatility in energy prices.
[2020-01-01] exports fell in late 2019, and business investment appears to have weakened after a strong third quarter.
[2020-01-01] seasoned equity offerings in october and november were similar to the typical volumes observed in previous years, though equity raised through initial public offerings moderated somewhat from the robu
[2020-01-01] the reduced flow of new arrivals to australia was also affecting some markets.
[2020-01-01] it was stressed that the governing council had to be ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards its aim in a sustained manner.
[2020-01-01] in our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023.
[2020-01-01] it also expected the bank to conduct appropriate monetary policy while carefully monitoring the impact of covid-19 on the economy as well as developments in financial and capital markets.
[2020-01-01] members noted that market functioning in sovereign bond markets had improved significantly, as had conditions in key money markets.