yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1997-01-01] A concern that one might have about price-level targeting, as opposed to more conventional inflation targeting, is that it requires a short-term inflation rate that is higher than the long-term inflat
[1997-01-01] Members recognized that from the standpoint of the level of real short-term interest rates, monetary policy could already be deemed to be fairly restrictive.
[1997-01-01] explanations tended to focus on the concerns about job security felt by many workers, the muted rise in the costs of worker benefits, notably for health care, and the increased use of innovative and h
[1997-01-01] Over the long run, real labor compensation tends to track labor productivity.
[1997-01-01] overall, the growth ofo f i ' s money had been dominated by life assurance and pension funds and, to a lesser extent, securities dealers.
[1997-01-01] the outlook for housing activity remained favorable, given an overall economic performance in line with current forecasts of a robust expansion, related growth in incomes, and still relatively attract
[1997-01-01] Members who preferred to retain an asymmetrical directive agreed that, although there was little likelihood of a further policy change during the intermeeting period, such a directive was the best way
[1997-01-01] however, given the underlying strength of the expansion, favorable financial conditions, and the absence of major imbalances in the economy, the risks of a different outcome were judged to be in the d
[1997-01-01] Members referred, however, to a number of favorable factors that should continue to support at least moderate further growth in business investment, including the attractive pricing of and ongoing rap
[1997-01-01] But speculators rarely succeed in dislodging an exchange rate that is firmly rooted in compatible policies and cost structures.
[1997-01-01] The guidance indicates an expectation that it will be appropriate to maintain the current target range of the federal funds rate until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the C
[1997-01-01] Money versus Interest Rates For most of the post-World War II period, monetary economists have vigorously debated whether the Fed should target money or interest rates in setting policy.
[1997-01-01] business fixed investment increased at an unusually rapid rate in the third quarter.
[1997-01-01] Against this background, the members agreed on the need to continue to monitor the economy with care for signs either of a potential upturn in inflation or greater softness in the expansion than they
[1997-01-01] But the advent of the war has led to a significant hit to real incomes from large price increases in energy and other commodities in some of the most severely affected economies.
[1997-01-01] The run-up in mortgage rates since the latter part of June was expected to curb housing demand to a limited extent in coming months,
[1997-01-01] Although the unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, wages are rising broadly in line with productivity growth and underlying inflation.
[1997-01-01] Members noted that most broad measures of inflation moved together over extended periods of time, but they did not always do so over short intervals.
[1997-01-01] some of the tax measures seemed likely to have a delayed effect, for example because they were not being implemented immediately (miras) or because they would affect consumers only after a lag (divide
[1997-01-01] goods inflation fell further in april, to 1.9%, compared with 2.1% in march and over 3% in late 1996.
[1997-01-01] The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that monetary policy appeared to be better positioned to offset large positive shocks than
[1997-01-01] Over time, spot prices are inexorably drawn back to the long-term equilibrium price, as the balance between underlying supply and demand is restored.
[1997-01-01] Monthly increases in nonfarm payroll employment averaged nearly 180, 000 over the three months ending in November, in line with the average pace of job creation over the past year.
[1997-01-01] The risks to the forecast for real GDP were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff's assessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand
[1997-01-01] bank staff were continuing to analyse the significance within m4 of ofis’ holdings but no new information had come to hand.
[1997-01-01] analysis by bank staff suggested that changed expectations for monetary policy in the uk or overseas were not the prime cause of the appreciation.
[1997-01-01] a concern in this regard was that the apparent upturn in final demand, particularly if it proved to be somewhat stronger than currently expected, and related business optimism about sales prospects mi
[1997-01-01] The staff raised slightly its projection for inflation during the second half of this year, as the upward pressure on consumer prices from earlier increases in import and commodity prices was expected
[1997-01-01] business spending on equipment and structures was projected to expand less rapidly in light of some anticipated slowing in the growth of sales and profits.
[1997-01-01] Members noted that they expected to maintain this target range until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and
[1997-01-01] taking all the evidence into account, members agreed that the prospect for domestic demand was sufficiently buoyant that, despite the probable future impact of the higher exchange rate on activity, th
[1997-01-01] Traditionally, these two measures of excess demand move together over the cycle.
[1997-01-01] they noted that continued relatively rapid growth of economic activity in the first quarter suggested greater persisting strength in demand than they had anticipated.
[1997-01-01] Over this period, inflation remained above most definitions of price stability, and the Federal Reserve was not actively seeking to reduce it.
[1997-01-01] Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the
[1997-01-01] The significant decreases that had occurred in the prices of fuel oil and gasoline were a positive factor that would continue to bolster household spending for a while.
[1997-01-01] Over the 1994-2002 period, seven prominent inflation-targeting industrial countries had a mean inflation rate of consumer prices of 2.1 percent per year with a standard deviation of 1.7 percent.
[1997-01-01] the ons estimated that around 20,000 fewer students entered the claimant count in july than in previous years, probably because of tighter eligibility rules following the introduction of the jobseeker
[1997-01-01] Central banks generally appear to have embraced a common model of the channels through which monetary policy functions, although the specifics and emphasis given to those channels vary according to ou
[1997-01-01] Members generally agreed that, in light of some weaker-than-expected readings on measures of labor market conditions and in the absence of greater confidence about the inflation outlook, it would be p
[1997-01-01] homebuilding was forecast to decline somewhat but to stabilize at a relatively high level in the context of continued income growth and the generally favorable cash-flow affordability of home ownershi
[1997-01-01] Money growth was damped by a rise in the opportunity cost of holding M2 assets (as typically occurs in periods of policy tightening).
[1997-01-01] it had fallenb y around 1/4% since 9 july but had risen bynearly 24% since 2 august 1996.
[1997-01-01] the current ranges were not expected to be guides to money growth under anticipated conditions in the period ahead, but instead could be viewed as anchors or benchmarks for money growth that would be
[1997-01-01] but since the mpc’s october meeting, sterling had increased by 2.1% (on an effective basis) and was now broadly in line with the august forecast.
[1997-01-01] Although we cannot ascertain the precise rates of resource utilization that the economy can sustain, we can have little doubt that, after three years of above-trend growth, slack has been substantiall
[1997-01-01] Participants' Views and Committee Policy ActionIn conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the five members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the 12 Federal Reserve
[1997-01-01] Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Now I would like to turn to the current economic scene and this week's FOMC decision.
[1997-01-01] A fifth factor is supply bottlenecks that manufacturers and importers are currently experiencing; supply chain constraints are boosting prices, particularly for goodsâ€”less so for services.
[1997-01-01] The staff viewed the uncertainty around its December projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average of the past 20 years.
[1997-01-01] Members still saw the economic expansion continuing, and most believed that inflation was likely to stabilize near recent low readings in coming quarters and then gradually rise toward levels they con
[1997-01-01] The staff still expected that the pace of economic activity through 2011 would be sufficient to reduce the existing margins of economic slack,
[1997-01-01] A currency board and dollarization are tighter versions of a fixed exchange rate regime--that is, fixed exchange rate systems from which it is progressively more costly to exit.
[1997-01-01] against this background, u.s. short-term interest rates registered small mixed changes over the period since the september 30 meeting, while treasury bond yields declined somewhat on balance.
[1997-01-01] Among other questions that could be addressed would be how policy actions (as opposed to inflation outcomes) influence expectations and how sensitive Federal Reserve credibility is to short-run depart
[1997-01-01] In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic conditions, members focused on the disparate forces that continued to shape trends in economic activity, notably the persist- ence of
[1997-01-01] retail sales volumes grew by 0.3% in july, more slowly than the 0.7% monthly average in the first half of the year, but this was nevertheless sufficient in combination with the strong growth in may an
[1997-01-01] Members saw the persistence of a relatively vigorous expansion in overall economic activity as a likely prospect in the context of continuing stimulus from fiscal and monetary policies, accommodative
[1997-01-01] second, the depreciation of the exchange rate since its peak in late july would have relieved part of the pressure on exporters’ margins.
[1997-01-01] although labor markets already were tight, inflation had remained relatively subdued, and there were no signs in price data that it was picking up.
[1997-01-01] But some would argue that monetary policy is actually further away from neutral, based on the fact that current inflation is so much higher than the federal funds rate.
[1997-01-01] but whereas in previous months it had inflated the growth rate, in the latest month there had been a net return of old 50p coins, depressing the monthly growth rate by an estimated 0.1pp.
[1997-01-01] Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income.
[1997-01-01] The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its March projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as similar to the average over the past 20 years.
[1997-01-01] although m4 growth had now reached 12%, m4 lending growth had not kept pace but rather remained steady, at around 9%.
[1997-01-01] For example, in his monetary policy testimony of July 1992, Chairman Greenspan said, "As I have often noted to this committee, the most important contribution the Federal Reserve can make to encouragi
[1997-01-01] The guidance on asset purchases, introduced in December, commits us to increasing our holdings of securities at least at the current pace until substantial further progress has been made toward the Co
[1997-01-01] Central banks have adopted price stability as a key long-term objective, and they have become more transparent and systematic in their operations.
[1997-01-01] More broadly, post-crisis monetary policy supported asset values, reduced interest payments, and increased both employment and income.
[1997-01-01] in this situation, they saw a clear need for a preemptive policy action that would head off any pickup of inflation, and it was noted that a shift to a tighter policy stance would seem to pose little
[1997-01-01] In the Committee's discussion of current and prospective economic developments, members referred to the widespread statistical and anecdotal evidence that the surprising strength in economic activity
[1997-01-01] some comfort on the latter point could be taken from the relatively small percentages of loans collateralised against stocks and shares.
[1997-01-01] Ensuring that every American has the chance to improve his or her economic circumstances through hard work, saving, entrepreneurship, and other productive activities is essential for building healthy
[1997-01-01] For example, the evidence suggests that changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect NAIRU and it is also likely that government programs, including unemployment compensation and w
[1997-01-01] But strong demand and a very tight labor market have also contributed to inflation pressures, and the FOMC can help alleviate those pressures by removing the extraordinary monetary policy accommodatio
[1997-01-01] In that regard, the prospective strength of demand pressures and related outlook for productivity were subject to a wide range of uncertainty, and there were reasons to believe that economic growth co
[1997-01-01] Equity prices have recently increased considerably, pushing the forward price-earnings ratio further above its historical median (slide).
[1997-01-01] Central bank actions are designed in the first instance to influence asset prices and yields, which in turn affect economic decisions and thus the evolution of the economy.
[1997-01-01] the current ranges set in february for the period from the fourth quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 1997 were unchanged from the ranges for 1996 and included expansion of 1 to 5 percent for m2
[1997-01-01] in furtherance of these objectives, the committee at its meeting in july reaffirmed the ranges it had established in february for growth of m2 and m3 of 1 to 5 percent and 2 to 6 percent respectively,
[1997-01-01] equity prices, as measured by the ft-se 100 index, had risen by a further 4.1% since 5 june from 4576 to 4762 on 9 july, though the ft-se 250 index had fallen by 1.6%.
[1997-01-01] In that vein, several participants noted that inflation expectations had been sensitive to incoming data and to communications regarding monetary policy over the intermeeting period.
[1997-01-01] A considerable literature suggests that successful monetary policies should stabilize, or "anchor," inflation expectations so as to prevent them from becoming a source of instability in their own righ
[1997-01-01] Turning now to monetary policy, at both its July and September meetings, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.3 With these decisions, the current targ
[1997-01-01] In preparation for the Federal Reserve's semiannual report to the Congress on the economy and monetary policy, the members of the Board of Governors and the presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks sub
[1997-01-01] Monetary policy seeks to buffer the economy from unexpected adverse disruptions, or "shocks."
[1997-01-01] In particular, the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource u
[1997-01-01] Although we are hearing some reports of large retailers planning markdowns due to excess inventories, we do not have hard data at an aggregate level suggesting that businesses are reducing margins in
[1997-01-01] The staff viewed the extent of uncertainty around its June projections for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate as roughly in line with the average over the past 20 years.
[1997-01-01] The idea is that providing more information about the Committee's views of the economic outlook may allow financial market prices to reflect more accurately the likely future stance of monetary policy
[1997-01-01] shipments of nondefense capital goods edged higher in may after posting large increases in earlier months of the year.
[1997-01-01] In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.
[1997-01-01] for the year through april, both aggregates expanded at rates appreciably above the upper bounds of their respective ranges for the year.
[1997-01-01] at its meeting on february 4-5, 1997, the committee issued a directive that called for maintaining the existing degree of pressure on reserve positions.
[1997-01-01] five-year fixed mortgage rates had fallen as the yield curve had inverted, and reports suggested that new fixed-rate mortgage business was strong.
[1997-01-01] The growth of subprime mortgage lending is one indication of the extent to which access to credit has increased for all households, including those with lower incomes.
[1997-01-01] growth of m2 moderated somewhat in january and february from a brisk pace in late 1996, while expansion of m3 remained rapid in both months.
[1997-01-01] In response to evidence of a slowdown in economic activity and a rapid waning of inflationary pressures, central banks around the world eased policy sharply.
[1997-01-01] By the same token, the effect of the interest rate channel on overall economic activity may be diminished by greater trade integration as changes in domestic demand are offset by induced changes in im
[1997-02-05] That is about as good a "Chart Show" as the staff has presented to this Committee in quite a long time.
[1997-02-05] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-02-05: target=-0.60 bp, path=+9.00 bp
[1997-02-05] As soon as we start to use it in that context, then when M2 starts to grow at a far slower rate, though we may not think that means anything, we have put it in play and the devil will come back to col
[1997-03-25] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-03-25: target=+6.50 bp, path=+9.60 bp
[1997-03-25] Another factor to keep in mind is that we have had a surge in income growth over the past year or so.
[1997-05-20] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-05-20: target=-8.30 bp, path=+2.10 bp
[1997-07-02] So, this exhibit seems encouraging to me, but it also illustrates that it would be a mistake to assume that velocity is now stable.
[1997-07-02] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-07-02: target=+1.40 bp, path=+2.30 bp
[1997-07-02] That is effectively what our argument is, and it is the right argument.
[1997-07-02] Should we tighten in August or early fall, we would look rather foolish if we had just removed the bias.
[1997-08-19] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-08-19: target=+2.60 bp, path=+3.30 bp
[1997-09-30] But I think the time has come for us to be less defensive, and the way we do that is to adopt the stance of being open minded and alert and let the truth, whatever it is, fall out wherever it might.
[1997-09-30] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-09-30: target=+2.10 bp, path=+0.80 bp
[1997-09-30] We thought that somehow the world now was right and that we had a grasp of its functioning.
[1997-11-12] In particular, if this path were embarked upon somewhat sooner than is assumed in the Greenbook forecast, would you modify the response of the economy in light of the possibility that it might generat
[1997-11-12] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-11-12: target=+0.20 bp, path=-2.60 bp
[1997-12-16] GSS factor decomposition for 1997-12-16: target=+1.80 bp, path=-0.40 bp
[1998-01-01] this sectoral picture had been broadly corroborated by the reports of the bank’s regional agents.
[1998-01-01] the trend in recent months suggested that vacancies had stopped increasing, but this had been distorted by adjustments to allow for the over-count of vacancies.
[1998-01-01] Members also agreed that their evaluation of progress on their objectives would take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pr
[1998-01-01] Given that we have yet to experience difficulties in funding a current account deficit that exceeds 6 percent of our GDP, what are the limits to the foreign markets' absorption of claims on U.S. resid
[1998-01-01] the nominal deficit on u.s. trade in goods and services continued to widen in april.
[1998-01-01] with regard to nominal gdp growth in 1998, the forecasts were mainly in a range of 3-3/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with an overall range of 3-1/2 to 5 percent.
[1998-01-01] However, a few participants expressed concern that higher household wealth might not translate into greater consumer spending, cautioning that household income growth remained slow, that households mi
[1998-01-01] Labor force participation isn't growing as much as one would expect with the hot job market, but apparently it's growing enough to keep the job creation machine humming.
[1998-01-01] However, the deficit was up appreciably from its average for the first quarter, with the value of imports increasing substantially more than the value of exports.
[1998-01-01] particularly large increases were recorded in expenditures on durable goods, apparel, and general merchandise.
[1998-01-01] Members agreed to continue to monitor inflation developments closely.
[1998-01-01] Information on the price expectations of businesses--who are, after all, the price setters in the first instance--as well as information on nominal wage expectations is particularly scarce.
[1998-01-01] all the members favored or could support the retention of the current ranges for this year and their extension on a provisional basis to 1999.
[1998-01-01] growth of m2 and m3 picked up somewhat in the first quarter from already robust rates in the fourth quarter.
[1998-01-01] And I need not remind you that the low inflation we now have was dearly purchased in the late 1970s and early 1980s with the highest interest rates since the Civil War and the highest unemployment rat
[1998-01-01] On the upside, bottlenecks, supply disruptions, and historically high rates of resource utilization were seen as potential sources of greater-than-expected inflationary pressures, particularly if ther
[1998-01-01] Participants commented that demand for labor continued to outstrip available supply across many parts of the economy and that their business contacts continued to report difficulties in hiring and ret
[1998-01-01] since a large share of consumer spending happened around the christmas period it was possible that a move this month would have a larger effect in supporting activity in the short run than a delayed m
[1998-01-01] The Committee's accompanying statement indicated that economic growth had been quite strong so far this year.
[1998-01-01] this had risen to around 9% in 1994-97, but was projected by the international organisations to fall to 4-6% over 1998-2000.
[1998-01-01] the trade deficit deteriorated in may to £1.2 billion from £0.7 billion in april mainly due to oil and erratic trade with non-eu countries.
[1998-01-01] However, the dollar partially retraced these increases following the much weaker-than-expected U. S. employment report for May, finishing the period a bit stronger against the currencies of the AFEs a
[1998-01-01] a10 in the money markets, expected three-month interbank rates implied by sterling futures contracts had changed little since the previous mpc meeting.
[1998-01-01] the change in required excess return was most obvious for sterling against continental european currencies, rather than the us dollar.