yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2021-01-01] labour markets remained resilient on the back of strong fiscal support but some indicators pointed to vulnerabilities further ahead.
[2021-01-01] perhaps consistent with that, there had been a rise in lending rates on some mortgage products with ltv ratios at or below 75% recently.
[2021-01-01] the changes in bond yields globally had been associated with higher volatility, though with considerably less spillover to other markets than in march and april 2020.
[2021-01-01] In the simplest version of his model, Bill assumed that the central bank could choose to specify its monetary policy actions in terms of a particular level of a monetary aggregate or a particular valu
[2021-01-01] much of the rise in sovereign yields since late 2020 had reflected investors revising up their expectations for inflation to be more consistent with central banks' inflation targets.
[2021-01-01] as partly anticipated, a sizeable additional stimulus was foreseen for 2021 in response to new lockdown measures.
[2021-01-01] My impression is that most investors agree that the change is an improvement in openness and transparency of monetary policy.
[2021-01-01] Maintaining low inflation rates reduces the levels of future uncertainties and, hence, increases the scope of investment opportunities.
[2021-01-01] His conclusion is that only by far-reaching decentralization in a market system with competition and free price-fixing is it possible to make full use of knowledge and information.
[2021-01-01] growth in incomes had been particularly strong in the june and september quarters of 2020, as fiscal transfers such as social assistance and subsidy payments had more than offset the declines in labou
[2021-01-01] the global economic recovery from the covid-19 pandemic is progressing.
[2021-01-01] the bank has revised up its estimate of potential output in light of greater resilience to the pandemic and accelerated digitalization.
[2021-01-01] consumption had continued to recover in the december quarter despite a decline in household income.
[2021-01-01] In the past, a reasonable goal might have been to maintain a zero deficit in our on-budget accounts--those accounts that exclude the Social Security and Medicare surplus--and to begin a serious discus
[2021-01-01] this suggested that the sharp rise in us real rates earlier this year may have largely reflected increased uncertainty around the outlook for monetary policy, and that this uncertainty may have dimini
[2021-01-01] Wage growth is not—there are many factors that affect it—it’s not definitive in any sense in determining our policy,
[2021-01-01] overall, economic activity could be expected to return to its pre-crisis level in the first quarter of next year.
[2021-01-01] overall, bank staff had revised down their expectations for 2021 q4 gdp growth to 0.6%, from 1% at the time of the november report.
[2021-01-01] in view of the weakness of near-term growth and the protracted nature of the recovery, the canadian economy will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support.
[2021-01-01] Looking beyond this spring, my views on the appropriate pace of interest rate increases and balance sheet reduction for this year and beyond will depend on how the economy evolves.
[2021-01-01] hicp weights were expected to change substantially in 2021 as a result of the changes in consumption patterns during the pandemic, adding to the already elevated uncertainty surrounding the inflation
[2021-01-01] Net exports subtracted more than 1/2 percentage point from GDP growth in both 2014 and 2015,
[2021-01-01] the bank now forecasts real gdp growth of 6 ½ percent in 2021, moderating to around 3 ¾ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023.
[2021-01-01] The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming inf
[2021-01-01] At the same time, however, the near-term outlook for inflation had deteriorated, and the risks that underlying inflation pressures could prove to be greater than anticipated appeared to have risen.
[2021-01-01] while bond yields have risen in recent weeks, financial conditions remain accommodative and continue to support economic activity.
[2021-01-01] in canada, growth in the first quarter appears considerably stronger than the bank’s january forecast, as households and companies adapted to the second wave and associated restrictions.
[2021-01-01] a vast majority of participants revised up their projections for real gdp growth this year compared with the projections they had submitted in march, citing stronger consumer demand and improvements i
[2021-01-01] inflation rates have increased in many countries, boosted by these supply bottlenecks and by higher energy prices.
[2021-01-01] overall, it was widely felt that the recalibration of instruments decided on in december remained appropriate and well-balanced, while all instruments needed to remain on the table, with due considera
[2021-01-01] It was observed that, after the early 1980s, the pass-through of energy prices into core inflation had been quite limited, suggesting that, in current circumstances, core inflation could stay relative
[2021-01-01] in addition, options markets had, by and large, priced out low inflation outcomes over the following five years.
[2021-01-01] questions were raised as to how realistic it was to assume that containment measures would be reduced as early as the second quarter and it was pointed out that, depending on the further evolution of
[2021-01-01] the chancellor had announced, on 5 january, one-off top-up grants for retail, hospitality and leisure businesses worth up to £9,000, and a discretionary fund of around £600 million to support other im
[2021-01-01] Now, with inflation below 2 percent, I think it’s appropriate that the labor market be that tight.
[2021-01-01] such developments underlined persisting uncertainties about behavior in labor markets and the level and growth of the economy's sustainable potential.
[2021-01-01] Monetary policy decisions are judgment calls, informed by forecasts and discussions about how the economy is likely to evolve, alternative possibilities, and potential responses to policy actions.
[2021-01-01] Independence and the Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was established as an independent central bank--although, at the time, it was given no clear concept of its role in th
[2021-01-01] In particular, the unemployment rates in the metropolitan areas of South Dakota have consistently been lower than in rural areas, and this relative abundance of job opportunities has tended to encoura
[2021-01-01] this concealed an upgrade to the outlook for advanced economies relative to that for emerging market economies, given the more rapid progress with vaccination programmes in the former and some new con
[2021-01-01] members noted that the measured unemployment rate would be a less useful indicator of labour market underutilisation over coming months compared with hours-based measures.
[2021-01-01] In addition to directly affecting longer-term interest rates, changes to the balance sheet could serve to reinforce policy communication associated with the short-term rate.
[2021-01-01] Of course, we can’t do anything about long-run employment opportunities, but we can help the economy recover more quickly.
[2021-01-01] members unanimously supported the new formulation of the ecb’s price stability objective.
[2021-01-01] the participation rate had remained high in january and, for most age cohorts, participation rates had been near or above pre-pandemic levels.
[2021-01-01] the bank’s extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate is being maintained.
[2021-01-01] In addition to u* and r*, an important input into any monetary policy assessment is the state of inflation expectations.
[2021-01-01] regarding fiscal policies, an ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance was seen as remaining critical, in view of the sharp contraction in the euro area economy.
[2021-01-01] this was seen as essential around turning points and in periods of possible “regime shifts”.
[2021-01-01] members noted that the first $100 billion phase of the bond purchase program was scheduled to be completed in early april.
[2021-01-01] the improved outlook for activity and employment was expected to lift private sector wages growth a little over the forecast period.
[2021-01-01] But dividing that nominal value change into components representing changes in real quantity versus price requires that one define a unit of output that is to remain constant in all transactions over
[2021-01-01] It isn’t really just targeting the headline numbers, but it’s about taking all of those things into account in your thinking about what constitutes maximum employment.
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of prices, participants indicated that data over the intermeeting period, including measures of inflation expectations, suggested that underlying inflation was not in the process o
[2021-01-01] long-term risk-free rates and gdp-weighted sovereign bond yields had increased somewhat further since the march governing council monetary policy meeting and stood above their pre-pandemic levels.
[2021-01-01] although a better economic outlook in the united states also entailed positive demand effects for the euro area, it was observed that the optimism prevailing on financial markets, reflected in “reflat
[2021-01-01] cpi inflation is forecast to rise temporarily to around 2 percent in the first half of the year, as the base-year effects of price declines at the pandemic’s outset — mostly gasoline — dissipate.
[2021-01-01] For example, one—in the long-run, the size of the balance sheet is going to depend on the public’s demand for our liabilities, including currency and reserves.
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of forward guidance about the target federal funds rate, a few members suggested that lowering the unemployment threshold to 6 percent could effectively convey the Committee's inte
[2021-01-01] My goal is not to draw conclusions on recent movements in risk premiums but rather to give you a sense of how estimates of risk premiums may influence our policy decisionmaking, to note some of the di
[2021-01-01] the earlier-than anticipated arrival of effective vaccines will save lives and livelihoods, and has reduced uncertainty from extreme levels.
[2021-01-01] It was possible, though, that investors' uncertainty regarding inflation prospects, not just inflation expectations themselves, had risen.
[2021-01-01] Now, we have—you know, we haven’t anticipated that slowdown in productivity, and that’s one of the main reasons why we haven’t anticipated the relatively slow growth.
[2021-01-01] better job prospects, increasing confidence and continued government support were reinforcing spending.
[2021-01-01] Moreover, we should recognize that these disinflationary effects could dissipate or even be reversed in coming years.
[2021-01-01] this adjustment to the amount of incremental stimulus being added each week reflects the progress made in the economic recovery.
[2021-01-01] turning to financial conditions, long-term risk-free rates were broadly unchanged from the level prevailing at the time of the march meeting.
[2021-01-01] the recovery in the united states has been particularly strong, owing to fiscal stimulus and rapid vaccine rollouts.
[2021-01-01] while measured employment had declined further and the unemployment rate had increased in october, the labour force survey for that month had been conducted prior to the lifting of lockdowns in new so
[2021-01-01] members acknowledged that the risks to the inflation forecast had changed, with the distribution of possible outcomes shifting upwards.
[2021-01-01] Indeed, the discrepancy between actual and predicted money growth was sufficiently large that the P* model, if not subjected to judgmental adjustments, would have predicted deflation for 1991 and 1992
[2021-01-01] manufacturing was expected to perform strongly, even though supply bottlenecks were holding back production in the near term.
[2021-01-01] members noted that housing markets had strengthened further, with prices continuing to increase in all major markets.
[2021-01-01] The technical measures we are undertaking do not represent a change in the stance of monetary policy, which we continue to implement by adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate.
[2021-01-01] implied rates on interest rate futures initially rose following the meeting but subsequently retraced, and expectations regarding the path of the target federal funds rate over the next few years ende
[2021-01-01] the covid-19 pandemic continues to take a severe human and economic toll in canada and around the world.
[2021-01-01] it was observed that expectations of substantial us fiscal support had led to a steepening of the us treasury yield curve, which had only affected yields in the euro area to a limited extent, as a sig
[2021-01-01] in discussing recent developments in global inflation, members noted that global supply chain bottlenecks and higher commodity prices had contributed to an increase in producer price inflation in a nu
[2021-01-01] incoming economic data, surveys and high-frequency indicators pointed to continued economic weakness in the first quarter of 2021 driven by the persistence of the pandemic and the associated containme
[2021-01-01] So the—the sooner we get the virus under control, the sooner people can regain that confidence and regain their economic activity.
[2021-01-01] at the same time, it was cautioned that credit risks and the probability of default of non-financial corporations were increasing as the crisis endured.
[2021-01-01] the bank is continuing its qe program to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve.
[2021-01-01] as in previous covid waves, headline gdp was still likely to be affected significantly by the ways in which public-sector output was measured in the uk national accounts.
[2021-01-01] Nonetheless, the members also noted that the rise in compensation increases had been damped and that there continued to be few indications of accelerating price inflation in the statistical and anecdo
[2021-01-01] At the same time, the staff viewed the risks around its outlook for the unemployment rate as roughly balanced.
[2021-01-01] oil prices had decreased by 3.9% in the same period (remaining broadly in line with the technical assumptions for the june projections), amid heightened volatility in the oil market.
[2021-01-01] The bottom line is that past performance, in several important dimensions, has been extraordinary and that prospects look favorable for continued expansion and relatively low inflation.
[2021-01-01] in this context, it had to be emphasised that the measures put in place were appropriate in view of the current outlook but were also designed to react flexibly and equally to either potentially less
[2021-01-01] in observing the market-implied path for bank rate, the committee notes that, in the november monetary policy _report central projections, cpi_ inflation is projected to be below the 2% target at the
[2021-01-01] more generally, members noted that business conditions across and within states remained uneven, with some industries experiencing very challenging conditions, while others, including professional ser
[2021-01-01] global financial conditions had loosened further, driven by higher equity prices and declining spreads.
[2021-01-01] the governing council also decided to extend the reinvestment of principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pepp until at least the end of 2023.
[2021-01-01] this approach, combined with forceful communication, could allow the governing council to reduce the pace of purchases while having an equivalent effect on financing conditions.
[2021-01-01] medium-term inflation expectations, as proxied by the one-year swap rate three years ahead, had stood at 1.99% the day before the governing council meeting – their highest level since early 2013.
[2021-01-01] The external sector was projected to continue to support domestic economic activity throughout the forecast period.
[2021-01-01] real gdp growth was expected to step down in 2022 and 2023 but still outpace that of potential over this period, leading to a decline in the unemployment rate to historically low levels, as monetary p
[2021-01-01] Monetary Policy in a World without Treasuries Today, monetary policy decisions are implemented through a mix of outright purchases and sales of assets held in the Fed's portfolio, temporary operations
[2021-01-01] This approach adds to what we have learned from earlier papers that have examined the performance of unconventional policy tools with respect to individual components of financial conditionsâ€”most no
[2021-01-01] But even for many other workers, a rapidly evolving work environment in which the skill demands of their jobs are changing can lead to very real anxiety and insecurity about losing their jobs.
[2021-01-01] It isn’t the kind of inflation that’s spread broadly across the economy.
[2021-01-01] these indicators had suggested that the ongoing recovery in labour market conditions could be broadly sufficient to offset the job losses arising after the end of the jobkeeper program.
[2021-01-01] core measures of inflation have also risen, but by less than the cpi.
[2021-01-01] alternatively, higher commodity prices, persistent supply chain bottlenecks and firms' reduced ability to address labour shortages through access to workers from abroad could mean that wages growth an
[2021-01-01] inflation rebounded in many foreign economies, reflecting rising energy prices and other temporary factors.
[2021-01-01] the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead now stood at 1.32%, i.e.
[2021-01-01] The jobs picture continues to be strong, with the unemployment rate near historic lows and with stronger wage gains.
[2021-01-01] it was stressed that, during the transition period, the main reference index for monetary policy would remain the current hicp.
[2021-01-01] over the next few months, inflation is expected to rise temporarily to around the top of the 1-3 percent inflation-control range.
[2021-01-01] over the medium term, participants expected strong growth in employment, driven by continued progress on vaccinations and an associated rebound of economic activity and of consumer and business confid
[2021-01-01] demand is expected to be supported by strong consumption and business investment, and a rebound in exports as the us economy continues to recover.
[2021-01-01] Monetary Policy Spillovers Flow in Both Directions There is a vast literature that documents the existence of international spillovers from U.S. monetary policy, especially to emerging markets (EMs).
[2021-01-01] overall, wage pressures remained low and quite heterogenous across countries.
[2021-01-01] members noted that unusual population trends during the pandemic had materially affected national housing market conditions and other parts of the economy, and would continue to do so for some time.
[2021-01-01] to maintain the symmetry of its inflation target, the governing council recognised the importance of taking into account the implications of the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates.
[2021-01-01] My general point is that inflation is much too high, and the outlook for inflation remains significantly uncertain.
[2021-01-01] Many have observed the rise in the real federal funds rate to a level well above its historical average and concluded that monetary policy is currently restrictive.
[2021-01-01] To keep the experiments as clean as possible, I assume that the economy begins at full employment and with both headline and core inflation at desired levels.
[2021-01-01] in its january monetary policy report (mpr), the bank projects global growth to average just over 5 percent per year in 2021 and 2022, before slowing to just under 4 percent in 2023.
[2021-01-01] higher ltv mortgage rates had continued to fall since the committee’s previous meeting, albeit at a slower pace.
[2021-01-01] finally, prospects of higher interest rates in the united states had caused sizeable shifts in foreign exchange markets, with investors having increased their us dollar net long positions since about
[2021-01-01] on the second option, the board agreed that market participants could question the longevity of the yield target it if were raised or its tenor shortened.
[2021-01-01] in stock markets, the euro stoxx 50 index had further extended its gains, gradually approaching pre-pandemic levels.
[2021-01-01] the ongoing recovery in domestic and global demand was boosting optimism among businesses.
[2021-01-01] But change is hard and not everyone is willing or able to pay the price.
[2021-01-01] Most Committee members, while acknowledging the deficiencies of structural models, viewed them as useful in their efforts to understand how the inflation process was changing and also as input to infl
[2021-01-01] namely, market sentiment had improved notably following the news of the successful development of vaccines and on account of expected monetary policy measures.
[2021-01-01] Most major indexes of equity prices moved up sharply on the bullish economic reports.
[2021-01-01] to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the bank will continue its qe program until the recovery is well underway.
[2021-01-01] many participants noted that although the economic recovery had slowed recently and the august increase in payrolls had fallen short of expectations, the labor market had continued to show improvement
[2021-01-01] This automatically pushes up domestic interest rates to support the currency.
[2021-01-01] We also do see the different measures of slack in the labor market point to different assessments of just what maximum employment is.
[2021-01-01] this was prompted by ongoing developments in the international regulatory architecture, where it has become increasingly common for central banks to provide more detailed information on ela arrangemen
[2021-01-01] The staff's forecast for inflation was little changed from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting.
[2021-01-01] the bank will continue to monitor the potential risks associated with the rapid rise in house prices.
[2021-01-01] finally, the governing council would continue to provide ample liquidity through its refinancing operations.
[2021-01-01] it was recalled that, according to the march 2021 ecb staff projections, inflation was projected to be only 1.4% in 2023.
[2021-01-01] At the same time, the incentive to take advantage of increasingly efficient high-tech equipment and software typically available at declining prices would continue to provide an important underpinning
[2021-01-01] Further evidence that firms still have not fully adapted their operations to the latest state of technology also is provided in a recent study4 that attempts to measure the "technological gap"--that i
[2021-01-01] a broad-based decline in the us exchange rate combined with stronger commodity prices have led to a further appreciation of the canadian dollar.
[2021-01-01] in contrast to movements in advanced-economy government bond markets, there had been relatively little news in corporate financing conditions.
[2021-01-01] The entire Committee is committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective over the December 16, 2015 medium term, just as we want to make sure that inflation doesn’t persist at levels above our
[2021-01-01] Deflation, like inflation, would distort resource allocation and interfere with the economy's ability to reach its full potential.
[2021-01-01] recent levels of loan commitments suggested that housing credit growth could reach a six-month-ended annualised rate of around 10 per cent by early 2022.
[2021-01-01] the outlook for the economy, and particularly the relative movement in demand and supply during the recovery from the pandemic, remained unusually uncertain.