yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[1998-01-01] the decrease in exports was mainly in civilian aircraft and other capital goods.
[1998-01-01] a17 there was large public sector debt repayment of £10.4 billion in january, partly due to higher than expected receipts under the new self-assessment tax system.
[1998-01-01] in the past year, businesses had added to inventories at a rate that exceeded the rise in final sales, and somewhat reduced accumulation to a pace more in line with that of final sales was seen as a r
[1998-01-01] A major concern that I have about the bubble-popping strategy, however, is that attempts to bring down stock prices by a significant amount using monetary policy are likely to have highly deleterious
[1998-01-01] On the positive side, weakness in world demand for oil was fostering a significant downtrend in energy prices, albeit with adverse effects on energy producers in this country and abroad.
[1998-01-01] However, this shortfall partly reflected the earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports, and some participants pointed out that, by some measures, the most recent mo
[1998-01-01] The staff assessed that households were in a better position than in the mid-2000s to weather a downturn in house prices, noting that mortgage debt growth has significantly lagged growth in house pric
[1998-01-01] in the manager's opinion, secondary market transactions would provide a helpful addition to the current range of assets that the system normally purchased, especially in a period of little or no incre
[1998-01-01] demand and output growth seemed to be slowing in line with the august central projection although the risk of a faster slowdown had increased.
[1998-01-01] the reported output balance (past four months) had fallen from +7 to -4, the lowest balance since april 1993; expected output (next four months) had fallen to -8, the lowest since july 1991.
[1998-01-01] And similar, sometimes even sharper, trajectories of house prices have been witnessed in some economies in which the central banks said they were paying more attention to asset prices.
[1998-01-01] the staff analysis suggested that further strong gains in income, along with the surge in household net worth over the past several years, would support brisk, though gradually diminishing, gains in c
[1998-01-01] industrial output had declined slightly in recent months after having rebounded in august when production resumed at general motors following settlement of the labor strike.
[1998-01-01] but monitoring processes had been set up which would identify the effect of the new deal on unemployment.
[1998-01-01] but as suggested by the rise until recently in profit margins, businesses had been able to realize productivity gains that tended to offset the faster increases in compensation costs.
[1998-01-01] the committee discussed the combined evidence on the position of the corporate sector, which generally reacts to interest rate changes sooner than the household sector.
[1998-01-01] the retail sales deflator is constructed using rpi data but is based on 1992 weights, whereas the rpi weights are updated and fixed for each year, which might account for some of the difference.
[1998-01-01] the apparent paradox had continued into 1998: surveys suggested that employment growth was still strong, but the decline in claimant unemployment had slowed further.
[1998-01-01] Given stable prices, savers and investors have more confidence about the ultimate value of their investments.
[1998-01-01] also how far it will fall and if it will fall soon enough to avoid spurring a concerning rise in longer-term inflation expectations.
[1998-01-01] Total U. S. consumer prices, as measured by the PCE price index, increased 1.
[1998-01-01] Once such expectations became imbedded in the economy, even stronger policy actions would be required in order to reestablish a downward trend of inflation.
[1998-01-01] but the balance of manufacturers expecting to increase investment was the most negative since october 1992 according to the cbi.
[1998-01-01] a59 information from options markets had shown that the one-month implied volatility for $/yen was typically higher than for $/mark.
[1998-01-01] the information reviewed at this meeting suggested that the expansion in economic activity had slowed considerably after a very rapid advance in the first quarter.
[1998-01-01] in the third quarter there had been a marked accumulation of manufacturing inventories of finished goods, while retail inventories had been growing steadily over the year.
[1998-01-01] Global factors may have put downward pressure on term premiums because of anxiety about the foreign outlook, which may have increased demand for U.S. assets, or because low rates abroad have depressed
[1998-01-01] and the news was such that it was difficult to form a quantitative assessment of the overall impact on the medium-term inflation projection and of the size of any interest rate increase that might be
[1998-01-01] one member was persuaded, however, that such a policy move should be implemented at this meeting in order to avert the need for a stronger and probably more disruptive policy adjustment that would be
[1998-01-01] On the other hand, including a reference risked the possibility of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the misimpression that monetar
[1998-01-01] new measures of tightness based on these ideas implied that the labour market was not as tight as the simple vacancies to unemployment ratio suggested, but they appeared to be less affected by structu
[1998-01-01] the committee then turned to a discussion of the economic and financial outlook, the ranges for the growth of money and debt in 1998, and the implementation of monetary policy over the intermeeting pe
[1998-01-01] however, factory output has changed little on balance in recent months.
[1998-01-01] However, as had been the case for many years, the members remained concerned that forecasts of money growth were still subject to a wide range of error in terms of the anticipated relationships betwee
[1998-01-01] And as reserves reach durably ample levels, we intend to slow the pace of purchases such that our balance sheet grows in line with trend demand for our liabilities.
[1998-01-01] The staff continued to view the uncertainty around its projections for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation as generally similar to the average of the past 20 years.
[1998-01-01] However, the projected step-up in real GDP growth over the second half of this year was marked down a little, partly reflecting softer news on construction.
[1998-01-01] the first concerned the meaning of the fan charts published in the inflation report.
[1998-01-01] Given the difficulty in assigning productivity increases by industry, there is a dispute on how widely productivity implicit in the information revolution has spread across the economy.
[1998-01-01] given that the balance of risks was seen as pointing to rising inflation over time, the members agreed that it was desirable to retain the tilt toward restraint in the directive.
[1998-01-01] votes for this action: messrs. greenspan, mcdonough, ferguson, gramlich, hoenig, jordan, kelley, mcteer, meyer, and mses.
[1998-01-01] But in the shorter run, we must also develop strategies to overcome the education deficiencies of all too many of our young people, and to renew the skills of workers who have not kept up with the cha
[1998-01-01] To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time
[1998-01-01] And I'm pleased to have the opportunity to share with you, the students of South Dakota State University (SDSU), my experience as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and my outlook for
[1998-01-01] a8 sterling initially rose following the russian turmoil – with the uk effective exchange rate index increasing around 2½% to 106.7 – as the united kingdom was perceived to be relatively insulated fro
[1998-01-01] the twelve-month growth rate had fallen below 10% in march, to 9.8%, and the six-month and three month annualised growth rates were slightly lower than this.
[1998-01-01] But overly optimistic expectations for long-run earnings growth were not being driven by easy money, and I see no reason to believe that an extra 50 or even 100 basis points on the funds rate would ha
[1998-01-01] Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not.
[1998-01-01] well publicised job cuts in a range of sectors, whether or not directly affected by general economic conditions, had probably increased awareness of the changing outlook.
[1998-01-01] the external sector continued to represent a major source of downside risk; the economies of several industrial countries seemed to be weakening, and the outlook for several key emerging market econom
[1998-01-01] Participants continued to expect that, as the effects of transitory factors waned and labor market conditions strengthened further, inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective
[1998-01-01] another view was that these figures, along with the recent settlements data reported in the annex, were clear signs of an acceleration in earnings.
[1998-01-01] there was a broad consensus that the committee should in principle be concerned about deviations of the level of output from capacity.
[1998-01-01] sales increases were particularly large at furniture and appliance stores and apparel outlets.
[1998-01-01] a measure of gdp which excluded these volatile sectors (which account for around 6% of gdp) showed growth continuing at above trend rates of around 0.8% per quarter in 1997 h2.
[1998-01-01] but smoothed estimates of earnings, which attempt to adjust for uneven bonuses, also increased slightly in november.
[1998-01-01] moreover, because a policy action was not currently anticipated, some commented that a tightening could produce an outsized and undesirable response in financial markets.
[1998-01-01] the negative skew (measured by the difference between mean and mode) in the probabilities attached to future levels of the ft-se 100, which had worsened dramatically with the outbreak of the asian cri
[1998-01-01] Going forward, the question is not only whether inflation will fall in the coming months,
[1998-01-01] Participants discussed several risks that, if realized, could necessitate a steeper path of increases in the target range; these risks included the possibility that inflation pressures could build und
[1998-01-01] But monetary policy has little ability to affect inflation this year.
[1998-01-01] Global growth estimates continue to be marked down, and global disinflationary pressures cloud the outlook for U.S. inflation.
[1998-01-01] excluding the factor cost adjustment, gdp at market prices grew by 0.8% in q1.
[1998-01-01] The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases,
[1998-01-01] a broadly flat position was the best assessment of the short-term trend.
[1998-01-01] overall, the economy had so far slowed broadly in line with the committee’s may forecast.
[1998-01-01] the governor bank of england threadneedle street london ec2r 8ah remit for the monetary policy committee the bank of england act came into effect on june 1.
[1998-01-01] a24 the current account balance was -£3.2 billion in 1998 q1, the first quarterly deficit since q3 and the largest since 1992 q4.
[1998-01-01] accordingly, a steady policy would not incur an unacceptable risk of a seriously deteriorating economic performance.
[1998-01-01] in the nonresidential sector, building activity remained soft in october.
[1998-01-01] however, some anecdotal and other evidence suggested that retail sales had moderated in recent weeks in at least some areas; the moderation appeared to be only partly associated with the work stoppage
[1998-01-01] However, economic activity continued to be depressed in areas affected by the downturn in the energy sector and falling agricultural commodity prices, al­though several participants noted that the rec
[1998-01-01] A key purpose of our review has been to take stock of the lessons learned over this period and identify any further changes in our monetary policy framework that could enhance our ability to achieve o
[1998-01-01] Members agreed that they would continue to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
[1998-01-01] a33 goods trade data had pointed to a negative contribution from net trade in 1998 q3.
[1998-01-01] another possibility was that recruitment difficulties were related to the level of unemployment rather than to its rate of change.
[1998-01-01] To a considerable extent, however, any uptick in inflation expectations likely represented a reversal of anticipated declines in inflation earlier this year when economic prospects had seemed weaker a
[1998-01-01] Last year was the fifth consecutive year that inflation, measured by the chain GDP price index, was 2.6% or lower and the 5-year compound annual inflation rate is now 2.5%, the lowest since 1967.
[1998-01-01] The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals.
[1998-01-01] on japan there was great uncertainty about the likely path of real activity given the fall in output in 1998 q1, and other forecasters were still revising down their projections for 1998.
[1998-01-01] the stock market's rise was viewed as somewhat puzzling, given indications of some slowing in the growth of profits and the potential for earnings disappointments as the expansion in spending moderate
[1998-01-01] the bank’s agents suggested that this might reflect uk exporters attaching strategic importance to retaining their position in european markets, even when profitability was low.
[1998-01-01] But is it really true that prices are more responsive to productivity than wages?
[1998-01-01] Members also agreed that there was only a remote possibility that the process of disinflation would cumulate to the point of a decline for an extended period in the general price level.
[1998-01-01] on one view, the slowdown in manufacturing growth was likely to have knock-on effects for services, directly through the dependence of business services on the production industries, and indirectly vi
[1998-01-01] Furthermore, policymakers hoped that additional tools at their disposal--so-called incomes policies enforced by “jawboning,” guideposts, and price and wage controls--were ready to combat and control a
[1998-01-01] the committee noted that it could take account of the analysis and opinion of outside commentators, but had to reach its own assessment, in line with its remit.
[1998-01-01] Generally speaking, the growth of profits and the related buildup of cash have been broadly distributed across industries.
[1998-01-01] The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum emplo
[1998-01-01] since the peak in the ft-se all-share on 20 july, the financials and services sectors had been the main contributors to the fall of 22.5% in the index.
[1998-01-01] the cips construction report also showed an increase in employment: its march number was the highest since may 1997.
[1998-01-01] Members agreed that their policy decisions would remain data dependent, and they continued to include wording in the statement noting that if incoming information indicates faster progress toward the
[1998-01-01] beyond this, there was an additional increase in total inactivity of 30,000.
[1998-01-01] members observed that price inflation had remained subdued, and by some measures had declined, in recent months despite very tight labor markets and indications of somewhat faster increases in labor c
[1998-01-01] Inflation-targeting regimes may allow some consideration of real-side costs either by specifying relatively long adjustment periods, to allow a high probability that the central bank can bring inflati
[1998-01-01] Inflation targeting was also associated with increased communication and transparency designed to clarify the central bank's policy intentions.
[1998-01-01] bank and building society lending to industrial and commercial companies (iccs) had risen sharply in the first quarter.
[1998-01-01] However, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient to reduce slack in the labor market only slowly, and the unemployment rate was expected to remain elevated at the end of 2012.
[1998-01-01] nonfarm payroll employment registered another substantial increase in april after a slight decline in march, and the civilian unemployment rate fell to 4.3 percent in april.
[1998-01-01] On the upside, recent fiscal policy changes could lead to a greater expansion in economic activity over the next few years than the staff projected.
[1998-01-01] The staff continued to project that the accommodative stance of monetary policy, together with a further attenuation of financial stress, the waning of adverse effects of earlier declines in wealth, a
[1998-01-01] A main reason I expect this outcome is simply the fact that the very low inflation readings during last spring's deep economic contraction will drop from the usual calculation of 12-month price change
[1998-01-01] mean inflation expectations of the general public at 12 and 24 months ahead, as surveyed by basix, had risen slightly on the quarter.
[1998-01-01] a few days earlier sterling had failed to break through 1.70 against the dollar, and this triggered a sell-off on technical grounds.
[1998-01-01] A higher rate of technical change that raises the productivity and hence the profitability of capital should elevate the value of equities.
[1998-01-01] Labor productivity growth slowed to an average pace of 1.4 percent per year over this period,
[1998-01-01] LBOs, and other forms of private equity investment, may force management to implement strategic changes rapidly to restore the firmâ€™s return on equity and boost share prices, in part by increasing f
[1998-01-01] a29 the halifax and nationwide prices indices had both recorded increases in october.
[1998-01-01] thus, inventory investment was likely to respond to the expected deceleration in final sales over coming quarters.
[1998-01-01] But low rates are not solely or even primarily a result of the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policies; they are rooted in the market's expectations of low inflation and the weakness of the
[1998-01-01] Given recent developments, the medium-term outlook for inflation will receive particular scrutiny.
[1998-01-01] accordingly, in the context of the committee's long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth, and giving careful consideration to economic, financial, and monetary developmen
[1998-01-01] the introduction of the national minimum wage (nmw) was akin to a price level shock.
[1998-01-01] Participants discussed their assessments of risks to financial stability, particularly in light of the Committee's highly accommodative stance of monetary policy.
[1998-01-01] on the other hand, the evidence from share prices clearly went in the opposite direction.
[1998-01-01] but the most recent survey on august 10 indicated a fall, perhaps consistent with a change in foreign currency risk premia in favour of sterling given concerns about financial fragility overseas.
[1998-01-01] Instead, I would like to address a separate but not unrelated topic, the interaction of bank supervision and regulation with monetary policy, and how supervision and regulation might work to make mone
[1998-01-01] recent external estimates were that the ex ante effect on gdp in industrial countries (ie before allowing for the effects of policy accommodation in the countries not immediately affected) might be of
[1998-01-01] PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year.
[1998-01-01] Inflation-targeting regimes make sense only if the central bank has independent control of the instruments of monetary policy, as holding the central bank responsible for meeting its inflation target
[1998-01-01] And it may generally take longer still for a policy change to alter the course of inflation.
[1998-01-01] To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a
[1998-01-01] quantity measures of the labour market suggested that it was no longer tightening.
[1998-01-01] Furthermore, in the latest report, FOMC participants indicated that the current degree of uncertainty about GDP growth is even higher than the typical level of uncertainty over the past two decades.
[1998-01-01] total unsecured lending was strong in december, rising by 17.9% on a three-month annualised basis, following windfall-related debt repayments in q3.
[1998-01-01] against this background, the federal reserve bank of new york had brought together key interested parties with the aim of increasing the probability of an orderly private-sector solution to the hedge
[1998-01-01] King (1999) shows that, if a long enough interval is given to hit the target, there may be little difference between a price level target and an inflation rate target.
[1998-01-01] the committee discussed recent developments with particular emphasis on the external environment; the chancellor’s announcement on the economic and fiscal strategy report; domestic demand; output and
[1998-01-01] previous bank analysis had suggested that settlements do not necessarily lead wage drift; if anything the reverse tends to be the case.
[1998-01-01] on their own, the latest industrial production data would imply a downward revision of perhaps 0.1% to estimated gdp in q4.
[1998-01-01] in particular, members discussed whether there were costs to rapid reversals of policy; eg cutting rates very shortly after having raised them.
[1998-01-01] some members indicated that in light of continued robust economic growth, tight labor markets, and improving financial conditions they had a preference for awaiting further developments that might pro
[1998-01-01] multifactor productivity growth fell to a pace of 0.4 percent, the slowest pace of any of the periods shown on the table.
[1998-01-01] To some, the continued subdued trend in wages was evidence of an absence of upward pressure on inflation from current levels of labor utilization.
[1998-01-01] Participants discussed the open market operations that the Federal Reserve had undertaken since September to implement monetary policy, as well as forthcoming operational measures.
[1998-01-01] the durability of the economic expansion would be jeopardized by price and wage decisions reflecting expectations that the purchasing power of the dollar would decline at faster rates in the future.
[1998-01-01] a clear contrast remained between ons and survey data in recent years.
[1998-01-01] if activity growth continued to slow, one might expect a simultaneous slowdown in broad money growth, possibly alongside a fall in asset prices.
[1998-01-01] forthcoming data on capital spending including new orders and contracts were likely to point to a weaker uptrend in business fixed investment.
[1998-01-01] A key difference between the two groups of countries is that the countries whose current accounts have moved toward deficit have generally experienced substantial housing appreciation and increases in
[1998-01-01] the dollar also gained slightly on average in relation to the currencies of the other g-10 currencies.
[1998-01-01] available information suggested that growth in business spending on capital goods likely would slow further in the months ahead.
[1998-01-01] However, core inflation had been subdued in recent months and longer-run inflation expectations remained contained.