yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2021-01-01] in canada, robust economic growth has resumed, following a pause in the second quarter.
[2021-01-01] If we think that the potential growth rate of the economy is somewhere between, somewhere around 1.75 percent, 2.8 percent is strong economic growth.
[2021-01-01] survey-based measures of inflation now also indicated a small rise in longer-term inflation expectations, although to levels that were still some distance below the inflation target.
[2021-01-01] in australia, expectations for the cash rate implied by market prices had been little changed over the preceding month after increasing in late october following the release of the september quarter c
[2021-01-01] at the same time, it was underlined that, to assess the favourability of financing conditions, it was necessary to understand the underlying drivers of the rise in risk-free rates.
[2021-01-01] as government bond spreads had remained resilient, the nominal euro area ten-year gdp-weighted sovereign bond yield had declined further since the governing council’s previous monetary policy meeting
[2021-01-01] at the same time, a wealth of research over the past years had helped to synthesise the experiences under the previous strategy and to mould it into the new one, which from now on would guide the gove
[2021-01-01] after a decline in real gdp of 5 ½ percent in 2020, the bank projects the economy will grow by 4 percent in 2021, almost 5 percent in 2022, and around 2 ½ percent in 2023.
[2021-01-01] The faster pace of real GDP growth was expected to be supported by an easing in the restraint from changes in fiscal policy, increases in consumer and business confidence, further improvements in cred
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of inflation developments, participants noted that readings on overall and core PCE inflation, measured on a 12-month change basis, had continued to run below the Committee's symme
[2021-01-01] what mattered from a monetary policy perspective was the evolution of real rates, which had declined to record low levels in recent weeks.
[2021-01-01] So there’s been a number of emerging markets—as you know, we’re suffering under the weight of declines in oil prices that are affecting their economic activity.
[2021-01-01] however, the point was made that some moderation in growth was naturally to be expected, in line with the experience of other reopening economies.
[2021-01-01] in an alternative scenario that is conditioned on energy prices following forward curves throughout the forecast period and as set out in the november report, cpi inflation falls back towards the targ
[2021-01-01] The ultimate responsibility for price stability rests with the Federal Reserve.
[2021-01-01] the vaccination program would assist with containment of the virus and longer-term economic recovery.
[2021-01-01] In particular, a surprise tightening of policy raises the risk premium, lowering current stock prices, and a surprise easing lowers the risk premium, raising current stock prices.
[2021-01-01] this would, in particular, support the recovery in the services sector, which had been the sector most affected by the crisis.
[2021-01-01] nevertheless, uncertainty is still elevated, and the outlook remains highly conditional on the path of the virus and the timeline for the effective rollout of vaccines.
[2021-01-01] several other participants pointed out that the largest contributors to the recent elevated measures of inflation were a handful of covid-related, pandemic-sensitive categories in which specific, iden
[2021-01-01] the behaviour of consumers in response to an easing of lockdown measures continued to be surrounded by uncertainty.
[2021-01-01] Lower potential growth implies lower returns and therefore lower rates.
[2021-01-01] The staff viewed the uncertainty around the forecast for economic activity as similar to its normal level over the past 20 years.
[2021-01-01] euro area risk-free interest rates and sovereign yields had fallen in both nominal and real terms since the june monetary policy meeting, with the euro area gdp-weighted ten-year bond yield falling ba
[2021-01-01] the view was expressed that the longer the inflation spike lasted, the more it would become entrenched in longer-term inflation expectations.
[2021-01-01] So we do say that risks to the financial system—we say in our longer-run statement of goals and monetary policy strategy that risks to the financial system that could prevent us from achieving our goa
[2021-01-01] effective the week of april 26, weekly net purchases of government of canada bonds will be adjusted to a target of $3 billion.
[2021-01-01] at the time of the meeting, the bank held 34 per cent of outstanding australian government securities and 17 per cent of outstanding securities issued by the states and territories.
[2021-01-01] the recovery in domestic and global demand was supporting production and business investment, although various shortages and cost pressures were clouding the outlook for the coming quarters.
[2021-01-01] but, in a low interest rate environment in which the policy rates were more likely to encounter and remain constrained at the lower bound, the governing council would continue to employ other instrume
[2021-01-01] The staff's forecast for inflation was basically unchanged from the projection prepared for the previous FOMC meeting.
[2021-01-01] furthermore, statistical issues linked to the effects of weights, tax changes and imputations continued to imply some uncertainty about the direction of underlying inflation.
[2021-01-01] a number of participants commented that the counterparties at such a facility should include depository institutions.
[2021-01-01] The housing sector has fully recovered from the downturn, supported in part by low mortgage interest rates.
[2021-01-01] in china, economic activity stabilised early in the december quarter following an earlier period of regulatory tightening.
[2021-01-01] The uncertainty about the threshold unemployment rate also suggests a differing degree of intensity in the response of monetary policy to deviations of inflation and output to their respective targets
[2021-01-01] this tightening was mainly driven by heightened risk perceptions among banks, in a context of continued uncertainty about the economic recovery and concerns about borrower creditworthiness.
[2021-01-01] it was argued that such wage growth needed to reflect a persistent shift in the growth rate rather than a one-off shift in the level.
[2021-01-01] however, it was also argued that firms had built up sizeable precautionary buffers and the recent slowdown in credit should not be interpreted as the start of a financial amplification cycle.
[2021-01-01] spreads on products with loan-to-value (ltv) ratios lower than or equal to 75% were now similar to spreads in january 2020, while spreads on products with ltv ratios higher than 75% had remained above
[2021-01-01] given this, it would be premature to consider withdrawing monetary stimulus.
[2021-01-01] The staff's forecast for core PCE price inflation this year was revised down a little in response to recent data.
[2021-01-01] a high proportion of vaccinations had also strengthened investor confidence in the resilience of the euro area recovery.
[2021-01-01] members commenced their discussion of international economic developments by noting that the global economy had continued to recover and that conditions were in place for a sustained expansion.
[2021-01-01] meanwhile, strong growth in foreign demand and higher commodity prices are expected to drive a robust recovery in exports and business investment.
[2021-01-01] members observed that, nonetheless, the additional monetary policy stimulus as a result of the bank's package of policy measures announced in november 2020 had contributed to the australian dollar bei
[2021-01-01] In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, Committee members generally agreed that their overall assessments of the economic outlook were little changed since their previous meeting.
[2021-01-01] however, members noted that the experience in australia had been different from that in the united states, where job resignation rates were at historically high levels and were coming at a time when l
[2021-01-01] To do that you've got to have price stability, and we've got to get back to price stability so that we can have a labor market where people's wages aren't being eaten up by inflation and where we can
[2021-01-01] the bank of canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the bank rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent.
[2021-01-01] in december, the 12‑month change in the consumer price index (cpi) was 1.4 percent, while core cpi inflation was 1.6 percent over the same period.
[2021-01-01] in line with the conclusions of the ecb’s strategy review, a discussion of the costs of owner-occupied housing was welcomed.
[2021-01-01] the recovery remains highly dependent on the evolution of the pandemic and the pace of vaccinations.
[2021-01-01] most of the increases in bond yields had reflected increases in expected inflation to levels that were consistent with or below central banks' targets.
[2021-01-01] the improvements were concentrated in the advanced foreign economies and china, supported by vaccine rollouts, the unwinding of public health restrictions, economic adaptation to the virus, and the re
[2021-01-01] Most other interest rates in short-term markets were little changed over the period.
[2021-01-01] in terms of the exchange rate, the euro had depreciated against the us dollar (-2.0%) but remained broadly stable in nominal effective terms (-0.3%).
[2021-01-01] overall, members judged that the risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook over the medium term had become more balanced, although downside risks remained in the near term.
[2021-01-01] meeting this condition will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it was at the time of the meeting.
[2021-01-01] in china, gdp growth had picked up to 1.3% in 2021 q2, in line with expectations at the time of the mpc’s previous meeting, following a relatively weak expansion of 0.4% in q1.
[2021-01-01] In terms of missing on inflation, policymakers' projections looked very much like most of the public's.
[2021-01-01] in addition, and against the backdrop of the recent significant expansion in the scale of the asset purchase facility, the committee agreed to ask bank staff to commence work to reconsider the previou
[2021-01-01] a general question remained on the scale of pent-up demand and the extent to which excess savings could also be used for consumption rather than housing or other purposes, such as repaying debt.
[2021-01-01] this meant that gdp was around 1 per cent below its december 2019 level at the end of 2020.
[2021-01-01] Indeed, virtually every forecast projects a modest rise in broad measures of U.S. inflation this year, reflecting the dissipation or reversal of favorable supply shocks, most importantly the reversal
[2021-01-01] improvements in labour market conditions were expected to reverse temporarily in the september quarter as a result of the lockdowns in greater sydney and other parts of the country.
[2021-01-01] In short, rising commodity prices are a better signal of strengthening economic activity than of inflation at the consumer level.
[2021-01-01] it was likely that the degree of slack in the labour market had remained higher than implied by this measure, however.
[2021-01-01] In the real world, there are two reasons why central bankers still prize credibility, even if it cannot be shown to reduce the costs of disinflation.
[2021-01-01] the momentum in housing price increases had broadened recently to include the largest capital cities and the more expensive segments of these markets, although the increase in overall housing prices i
[2021-01-01] the december quarter 2020 national accounts showed that gdp in australia had recovered to close to pre-pandemic levels, whereas gdp was still considerably below pre-pandemic levels in many other count
[2021-01-01] members noted that this had contributed to a depreciation of the australian dollar, which had declined to around its lowest level in 2021 in us dollar and twi terms, notwithstanding a rise in commodit
[2021-01-01] the bank expects cpi inflation to ease back toward 2 percent over the second half of 2021 as these base-year effects diminish, and inflation is expected to ease further because of the ongoing drag fro
[2021-01-01] To date, the spillover from the surge in oil prices has been modest.
[2021-01-01] Everyone, particularly people on fixed incomes, and at the lower part of the income distribution are better off with stable prices.
[2021-01-01] domestically, yields on longer-term australian government securities (ags) had also increased significantly, and the spread between 10-year ags and us treasury yields had widened to around 25 basis po
[2021-01-01] To do this will demand not only greater specialized knowledge, but also an ability to deal with risk and uncertainty.
[2021-01-01] the share of firms in the bank's liaison program with wage freezes in place had remained high, and most firms had continued to report limited upward pressure on wages despite anecdotal reports of labo
[2021-01-01] growth in business and dwelling investment had been stronger than expected, supported by targeted fiscal measures.
[2021-01-01] this could be in response to stronger wealth effects and a decline in uncertainty, which boosted households' willingness to consume out of earlier savings and recurring labour income.
[2021-01-01] Moreover, to the extent that more-rapid growth of productivity shows through to faster gains in nominal wages, there will be fewer instances in which nominal wages will be pressured to fall.
[2021-01-01] This allows the economy to operate at a higher utilization rate without inflationary consequences, at least until the higher productivity is fully anticipated in wage bargaining or until productivity
[2021-01-01] the overriding theme in euro area and global financial markets had been the continued rise in longer-term risk-free interest rates and sovereign bond yields.
[2021-01-01] we remain committed to providing the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
[2021-01-01] turning to the euro area, in the first quarter of 2021 the economy had experienced a consumption-led drop in gdp growth.
[2021-01-01] Monetary Policy With that outlook in mind, let me turn to monetary policy.
[2021-01-01] higher energy prices, alongside the strong recovery in global demand and ongoing capacity constraints in the goods sector, had contributed to this development.
[2021-01-01] In the past few years, the effect on the dollar of increased expectations about divergence between U.S. and foreign interest rates has been especially strong.9 The nearly 20 percent increase in the do
[2021-01-01] we will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target.
[2021-01-01] although risk-free rates and gdp-weighted sovereign bond yields had increased, it was observed that this had occurred mostly on account of higher expected inflation and a better outlook for the global
[2021-01-01] It was a question of not getting inflation up to our target on a robust, symmetric kind of a way.
[2021-01-01] this was partly because many workers had maintained attachment to their employers while on reduced or zero hours in states affected by lockdowns.
[2021-01-01] while fiscal policy was expected to be expansionary in 2021 and 2022, members considered that the prospects for 2023 were more uncertain.
[2021-01-01] however, it was highlighted that in response to the increase in cases of infection further measures had been taken, or had been announced, in many euro area countries, which had led to tighter restric
[2021-01-01] One of the things we’ve learned from our financial crisis and from a series of financial crises in history and around the globe is that, very commonly, when the economy takes a hit and falls into a re
[2021-01-01] the outlook for uk activity, and the balance of the effects of the omicron variant on demand and supply, would also depend on the responses of other policymakers in the united kingdom and abroad.
[2021-01-01] however, it was also argued that a more moderate increase in the pace would better reflect the assessment of more balanced risks to the outlook, also in the light of previous decisions when a similar
[2021-01-01] The boom was fueled by a sustained acceleration of productivity and an accompanying rise in corporate profits--fundamental changes that justified a major rise in equity prices.
[2021-01-01] Funding of our current account deficit likely will become more difficult when home bias approaches its practical minimum.
[2021-01-01] the bank now expects cpi inflation to be elevated into next year, and ease back to around the 2 percent target by late 2022.
[2021-01-01] in the face of strong global demand for goods, pandemic-related disruptions to production and transportation are constraining growth.
[2021-01-01] based on the developments in inflation expectations alone, the nominal ten-year ois yields would be 65 basis points above the level prevailing at the time of the monetary policy meeting on 9-10 decemb
[2021-01-01] at its august meeting, the committee had been briefed that technical preparations internally and by pra-regulated firms had progressed sufficiently that a negative bank rate could be implemented by th
[2021-01-01] We need to avoid expectations rising so much that they become a factor that drives inflation higher.
[2021-01-01] issuance of agency cmbs remained robust and issuance of non-agency cmbs strengthened notably in june.
[2021-01-01] Moreover, when some measures of inflation were close to 1 percent in 2003, the Federal Open Market Committee's official statements specifically noted that any further substantial decline in inflation
[2021-01-01] Of course, we’re ready to provide information that Congress needs to evaluate the Fed’s decisionmaking, in monetary policy and elsewhere.
[2021-01-01] To cite a recent study, Faust and Wright (2007) show that real-time staff forecasts of inflation reliably outperform statistical benchmarks at all horizons and that this advantage is not solely the re
[2021-01-01] decisions regarding further adjustments to the pace of net purchases will be guided by governing council’s ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery.
[2021-01-01] turning to the euro area, the more restrictive and extended lockdowns were weighing on the short-term growth outlook.
[2021-01-01] weekly estimates of private-sector payrolls constructed by federal reserve board staff using data provided by the payroll processor adp that were available through the first part of july suggested tha
[2021-01-01] At the same time, business firms generally were not raising their prices sufficiently to compensate for faster increases in their labor costs, to the extent that the latter were occurring, evidently b
[2021-01-01] members also agreed that, while less accommodative monetary policy would, all else equal, see lower housing prices and credit growth, it would result in fewer jobs and lower wages growth, which would
[2021-01-01] the new strategy acknowledged the advantages of having two specialised areas of analyses on the economy, but also recognised the value of integrating the analysis, in a world in which there were multi
[2021-01-01] the extension of the government’s employment support schemes in budget 2021 was expected to limit significantly the near-term rise in the lfs unemployment rate.
[2021-01-01] the september projections foresaw hicp inflation at an average of 2.2 per cent in 2021, before returning to 1.7 per cent in 2022 and 1.5 per cent in 2023.
[2021-01-01] For example, we have used some of our work to look at interest rate risk and interest rate sensitivity and, you know, found generally that banks can also sustain a significant increase in long-term in
[2021-01-01] Our current framework for implementing monetary policy is working very well.
[2021-01-01] member states were called upon to ensure a timely ratification of the own resources decision, to finalise their recovery and resilience plans promptly and to deploy the funds for productive public spe
[2021-01-01] Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand.
[2021-01-01] Job gains had been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate had declined substantially.
[2021-01-01] in the baseline scenario, the unemployment rate was forecast to decline to around 4¼ per cent by the end of 2022 and to 4 per cent by the end of 2023, which was lower than previously forecast.
[2021-01-01] We might look to the historical experience with oil price shocks in the 1970sâ€”not a happy story.
[2021-01-01] wages growth was expected to pick up as remaining wage freezes and cuts implemented in 2020 were unwound and the labour market tightened.
[2021-01-01] We need to remember that in decades past it was believed that monetary policy was most effective when it was least transparent.
[2021-01-01] with spending in decline and incomes still supported by government short-term work schemes, the saving ratio was expected to rise again in the fourth quarter.
[2021-01-01] covid vaccination programmes have progressed and picked up pace in many countries.
[2021-01-01] consumers continued to be confident and their spending remained strong.
[2021-01-01] It was suggested that the weakening expansion of expenditures in these capital goods might reflect a surfeit in capacity following a period of extraordinary growth in many industries--for example, tho
[2021-01-01] for business investment, recent data indicated a rebound also in the second quarter of 2021, after a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter contraction in the first quarter.
[2021-01-01] So those who can get credit, together with the low prices of houses, are at—able to buy much more house than they could have a few years ago.
[2021-01-01] Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mimeo.
[2021-01-01] members discussed a paper on the potential use of new digital assets in payments.
[2021-01-01] Higher productivity growth has apparently increased aggregate demand through at least three channels.
[2021-01-01] this is contributing to labour shortages in certain sectors, even as slack remains in the overall labour market.
[2021-01-01] members observed that inflation had increased, but remained low in underlying terms.
[2021-01-01] it will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.
[2021-01-01] economic agents had apparently learned to adapt to such restrictions, for instance by adjusting their consumption patterns, and the economy had demonstrated a strong capacity to bounce back rather qui
[2021-01-01] the new payments platform was highlighted for its capability to deliver more than 19 million covid-19 support payments in recent months, providing immediate value and mostly on weekends.
[2021-01-01] My fellow governors and I routinely receive from our staff a translation of the term structure of Treasury yields into implied forward rates, volatility inferred from options prices, and paths for exp
[2021-01-01] low population growth, reflecting reduced net overseas migration in particular, was also expected to affect high-density residential investment for some time to come.
[2021-01-01] members observed that outcomes for the nominal side of the economy had not been as positive.
[2021-01-01] the board remains committed to the 3-year australian government bond yield target of 10 basis points.
[2021-01-01] in their discussion of the outlook for economic activity, members welcomed the positive news about the prospective roll-out of vaccines and thus a gradual resolution of the health crisis.