yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2023-01-01] in light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflatio
[2023-01-01] finally, it was pointed out that the cumulative increase in prices between 2021 and 2024 would be around 20%.
[2023-01-01] while the unemployment rate remained around the low levels of the preceding year, broader measures of labour underutilisation had increased a little and a range of indicators suggested the labour mark
[2023-01-01] growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting.
[2023-01-01] several central banks had tightened monetary policy further and had noted that policy was dampening economic activity.
[2023-01-01] the bank’s preferred measures of core inflation show little downward momentum.
[2023-01-01] the point was made that, during recessions, the decline in employment was typically achieved through a reduction in hiring, not through increased firing.
[2023-01-01] wages growth had picked up significantly over the preceding year or so.
[2023-01-01] growth in business fixed investment slowed further in the first quarter, and new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft continued to decline in march, pointing to weakness in capital g
[2023-01-01] members noted that market expectations for the path of the cash rate implied by money market rates had declined since the july meeting, as had market economists’ expectations.
[2023-01-01] members agreed that whether further tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend on how the incoming data alter the econom
[2023-01-01] food price inflation was projected to fall further in coming months.
[2023-01-01] by contrast, gas spot prices had rebounded strongly, while futures prices had remained broadly unchanged at elevated levels since october.
[2023-01-01] a material slowdown in the chinese economy remained a key risk to the global outlook.
[2023-01-01] the global economy is slowing and growth is forecast to moderate further as past increases in policy rates and the recent surge in global bond yields weigh on demand.
[2023-01-01] the stronger inflation dynamic in the revised projections meant that the estimated range for the terminal rate that would ensure a return of inflation to target in a timely manner had risen markedly.
[2023-01-01] stock prices declined somewhat, but spreads on investment- and speculative-grade corporate bonds were little changed.
[2023-01-01] as energy prices were falling and risks around the energy supply were receding, it was important to start rolling back these measures promptly and in a concerted manner.
[2023-01-01] global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in north america and europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.
[2023-01-01] in other countries, the backward-looking component was much weaker, which would inevitably lead to wage differentials across countries.
[2023-01-01] however, central banks had also emphasised that policy rates were unlikely to decline over coming months, in contrast to market-implied expectations.
[2023-01-01] total household debt payments as a share of disposable income had increased significantly during the tightening phase.
[2023-01-01] thanks to falling energy prices, the terms of trade had started to improve at the end of last year and this had led to an improvement in the goods trade balance.
[2023-01-01] business surveys continue to suggest underlying quarterly gdp growth of around ¼% during the middle of this year.
[2023-01-01] moreover, the demand for hospitality services was expected to strengthen further over the coming months, which should give an additional boost to services and core inflation.
[2023-01-01] it was agreed that the next meeting of the committee would be held on tuesday–wednesday, july 25–26, 2023.
[2023-01-01] rising wages and falling energy prices would partly offset the loss of purchasing power that many households were experiencing as a result of high inflation.
[2023-01-01] while this global growth outlook is little changed from the july monetary policy report (mpr), the composition has shifted, with the us economy proving stronger and economic activity in china weaker t
[2023-01-01] first, the increase was due to a supply cut by russia and saudi arabia, in an attempt to avoid a fall in revenues due to a possible weakening of global oil demand.
[2023-01-01] oil prices are higher than was assumed in july, and the war in israel and gaza is a new source of geopolitical uncertainty.
[2023-01-01] still, monetary transmission via the bank lending channel was generally seen to have been stronger than previously anticipated, including by banks themselves, and to have led to a significant tighteni
[2023-01-01] members observed that the forecasts were predicated on there being an additional one to two increases in the cash rate over coming quarters and an assumption that productivity growth would recover ove
[2023-01-01] as the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow.
[2023-01-01] the average number of hours worked had also increased, although it was still somewhat below its pre-pandemic level.
[2023-01-01] spillovers from the united states and the reappraisal of euro area monetary policy had been key drivers of euro area risk-free yields.
[2023-01-01] members generally agreed that the rise in longer-term interest rates in the euro area had tightened financing conditions by more than anticipated.
[2023-01-01] spending by governments contributes materially to growth over the forecast horizon.
[2023-01-01] moreover, core inflation did not represent the household consumption basket and had historically not been a good leading indicator of future headline inflation in the euro area.
[2023-01-01] various factors might explain the weak productivity outcomes, including covid-19-related disruptions and strong growth in employment in government-funded services, where achieving productivity increas
[2023-01-01] compared with december expectations, risks to the growth outlook had become more balanced.
[2023-01-01] at the same time, it was argued that some indicators suggested longer-term inflation expectations remained at risk of becoming unanchored.
[2023-01-01] despite this progress, canadians are still feeling the hardship of high inflation in their essential household expenses, with persistent price increases for food and shelter.
[2023-01-01] the decline in the five-year forward inflation-linked swap rate five years ahead was also noted.
[2023-01-01] it raised uncertainty about the entire future path of short-term interest rates, resulting in a higher term premium.
[2023-01-01] inflation returns to target about the same time as in the july projection, but the near-term path is higher because of energy prices and ongoing persistence in core inflation.
[2023-01-01] the case to hold the cash rate target constant reflected the view that the data over the prior month did not warrant a material revision to the outlook and that there is the possibility of a larger ri
[2023-01-01] overall, the market was pricing in two 25 basis point increases in the cash rate over the remainder of 2023, an expectation shared by around half of market economists.
[2023-01-01] in canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand.
[2023-01-01] foreign economic growth slowed in the second quarter, as troubles in the property sector weighed on economic activity in china and monetary policy restraint contributed to the slowing in economic grow
[2023-01-01] in the bank’s october projection, cpi inflation is expected to average about 3½% through the middle of next year before gradually easing to 2% in 2025.
[2023-01-01] similarly, equity prices had declined a little for australian banks but by much less than for other major banking systems.
[2023-01-01] governing council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for cpi inflation.
[2023-01-01] in particular, it was recalled that developments in narrow money had typically been a good leading indicator of turning points in economic activity.
[2023-01-01] it was argued that attaching more weight to observable data would improve policy decisions, in particular when uncertainty was high.
[2023-01-01] in canada, demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight.
[2023-01-01] however, with underlying inflation persisting, central banks continue to be vigilant.
[2023-01-01] moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last september, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated.
[2023-01-01] uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook stemmed particularly from the impact of china’s reopening, fiscal measures and the exchange rate on inflation.
[2023-01-01] economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the united states, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient.
[2023-01-01] households’ median one-year inflation expectations, as measured by both the bank/ipsos and citi/yougov surveys, had fallen.
[2023-01-01] weakening global activity would also weigh on global trade and euro area foreign demand, despite improvements in global supply chain pressures.
[2023-01-01] conditions remained challenging in euro area money and repo markets, although there had been significant improvements lately.
[2023-01-01] attention was drawn to the increase in consumer inflation expectations in march.
[2023-01-01] it remained the case, however, that changes in term premia had accounted for only a small proportion of the overall rise in longer-term advanced economy government bond yields over the past two years,
[2023-01-01] the recent strengthening of the euro constituted a noteworthy change in the external environment and would likely imply somewhat lower inflationary pressures for the euro area in the period ahead, eve
[2023-01-01] the recovery in household spending from the pandemic-related restrictions seemed to have mostly run its course.
[2023-01-01] the bank of canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the bank rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%.
[2023-01-01] while some of the weakening in recent activity data could prove erratic, bank staff now expected gdp to rise only slightly in 2023 q3.
[2023-01-01] lower energy prices, improvements in global supply conditions, and the effects of higher interest rates on demand are expected to bring cpi inflation down to around 3% in the middle of this year and b
[2023-01-01] inflation had edged down from 8.6% in january to 8.5% in february, while underlying price pressures remained strong.
[2023-01-01] it was also pointed out that the momentum of services inflation was clearly on the rise, indicating that wages – a key component of services inflation – would become increasingly important in explaini
[2023-01-01] it was recalled that the ecb monitored a wide array of measures of underlying inflation and undertook a detailed analysis of all components of headline inflation, rather than looking exclusively at pa
[2023-01-01] for example, the transmission of market rates to time deposits and bank lending rates had been relatively limited and weaker than in the past in the fourth largest euro area economy, but more rapid th
[2023-01-01] the latest bank lending survey pointed to a further tightening of credit standards and another sharp drop in loan demand in the second quarter for both firms and households, since banks were becoming
[2023-01-01] inflation in many countries is easing in the face of lower energy prices, normalizing global supply chains, and tighter monetary policy.
[2023-01-01] nevertheless, employment growth had slowed and hiring intentions pointed to further moderation in coming months.
[2023-01-01] by contrast, the services sector remained resilient, still benefiting from the stimulus provided to contact-intensive services by the reopening of the economy.
[2023-01-01] quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the bank’s balance sheet.
[2023-01-01] at the conclusion of the discussion, the committee voted to authorize and direct the federal reserve bank of new york, until instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the soma in accordance wit
[2023-01-01] softening foreign demand is expected to restrain exports and business investment.
[2023-01-01] against this background, members assessed the data that had become available since the september monetary policy meeting in accordance with the three main elements of the “reaction function” that the
[2023-01-01] lower energy prices, the easing of supply bottlenecks and fiscal policy support for firms and households had continued to shore up the economy.
[2023-01-01] by contrast, for services inflation the underlying measures and the momentum did not yet point to any visible decline.
[2023-01-01] in light of its outlook for growth and inflation, governing council decided to maintain the policy rate at 4½%.
[2023-01-01] china’s abrupt lifting of covid-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for china and poses an upside risk to commodity prices.
[2023-01-01] overall, credit quality remained strong, al­though there was some deterioration for credit card and auto loan borrowers and some predictors of future credit quality worsened a bit further.
[2023-01-01] regarding inflation, it could decline quickly in the face of slower growth and improved supply conditions.
[2023-01-01] its previous appreciation was still adversely affecting euro area trade.
[2023-01-01] nevertheless, mr lane noted that long-term risk-free interest rates and sovereign yields had declined on the back of lower term premia and revised policy expectations, thereby supporting risk assets.
[2023-01-01] in the july mpr projection, cpi inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025.
[2023-01-01] this is reinforced by the bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.
[2023-01-01] by contrast, food price inflation had increased to 14.1% (from 13.8% in december).
[2023-01-01] the ecb’s corporate telephone survey showed that large companies expected margins to deteriorate in 2023 from elevated 2021-22 levels.
[2023-01-01] members noted the high degree of uncertainty around this forecast.
[2023-01-01] by july, and even more so by september, new information would become available that would allow the governing council to update its assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying infl
[2023-01-01] as regards fiscal policies, members reiterated that government support measures to shield the economy from the impact of high energy prices should be temporary, targeted and tailored to preserving inc
[2023-01-01] corporate bond yields had declined alongside the fall in government bond yields and a narrowing of credit spreads.
[2023-01-01] chinese authorities had taken measures to stabilise the property market, in addition to fiscal and monetary policy measures to support the recovery more broadly.
[2023-01-01] however, this was not the case for the indicator of domestic inflation, which remained strong and was likely to reflect more persistent pressures on services prices, which had a high wage content.
[2023-01-01] inflation in canada eased to 3.4% in may, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer.
[2023-01-01] the increase in mortgage rates so far during this cycle had, however, already led to higher aggregate interest payments by households, and this metric was likely to rise further.
[2023-01-01] this is a slower return to target than was forecast in the january and april projections.
[2023-01-01] the committee discussed the recent weakening in uk gdp growth, in the context of the significant tightening of monetary policy since the end of 2021, continued weakness in potential supply growth and
[2023-01-01] in this regard, it was reiterated that the sensitivity analysis conducted in the context of the projection exercise pointed mostly to upside risks to inflation, notably from energy and food prices.
[2023-01-01] a concern was voiced that, with the current slowdown in economic activity, the ongoing transmission of past monetary policy actions could lead to a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity th
[2023-01-01] following the pandemic, the economy was going through a period of intensified job churning, so it was natural that labour productivity and wage growth were accelerating.
[2023-01-01] strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to dem
[2023-01-01] all in all, it would be plausible to expect productivity growth to rebound in the near future, which would contain unit labour costs and inflation.
[2023-01-01] measures of systemic stress, volatility and market liquidity had returned to close to their levels before the failure of silicon valley bank (svb).
[2023-01-01] against this background, members assessed that there were both upside and downside risks to inflation.
[2023-01-01] in view of the prevailing uncertainties and the large costs of bringing inflation down once it had become entrenched, it was argued that it was preferable to tighten monetary policy further than to no
[2023-01-01] additionally, land sales to property developers are an important source of income for local governments, whose finances are already stretched.
[2023-01-01] consistent with market expectations for policy rates, longer term government bond yields had declined since the start of 2023 in most major advanced economies.
[2023-01-01] it was recalled that the governing council had liquidity instruments at hand to address potential liquidity strains in the banking sector and spillovers from international developments, which allowed
[2023-01-01] the monthly cpi indicator for headline inflation had moderated to 7.4 per cent over the year (from 8.4 per cent in december).
[2023-01-01] inflation has declined from 8.1% in june to 6.3% in december, reflecting lower gasoline prices and, more recently, moderating prices for durable goods.
[2023-01-01] members also noted the ongoing work of the bank, under the oversight of the payments system board, to promote the efficiency, competitiveness and safety of the payments system.
[2023-01-01] the market implied path for bank rate now averaged a little under 5% over the next three years.
[2023-01-01] consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services.
[2023-01-01] second, spillovers from the united states to the euro area had been contained.
[2023-01-01] however, in addition to elevated mortgage interest costs, inflation in rent and other housing costs remains high.
[2023-01-01] members noted that the recent banking system problems in the united states and switzerland had created stress and volatility in financial markets, especially bond markets.
[2023-01-01] although most measures of longer-term inflation expectations currently stood at around 2%, some indicators had edged up and warranted continued monitoring.
[2023-01-01] a further weakening of demand would also contribute to lower price pressures than currently anticipated, especially over the medium term.
[2023-01-01] members discussed a paper that reviewed the bank’s approach to reducing its holdings of government bonds that had been purchased during the pandemic to support markets and provide economic stimulus.
[2023-01-01] moreover, the argument was made that the financial markets’ reaction to the governing council’s october decision and communication had contributed to a loosening of financial conditions, which had rev
[2023-01-01] in the other direction, the 2023 and 2024 inflation projections from the ecb survey of professional forecasters had increased.
[2023-01-01] investors continued to consider a scenario where inflation remained above target over the longer term significantly more probable than a scenario where it dropped below 2%.
[2023-01-01] the bank expects gdp growth of about 1% in 2023 and about 2% in 2024, little changed from the october outlook.
[2023-01-01] overall, the bank expects the canadian economy to grow by 1.2% this year, 0.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025.
[2023-01-01] market expectations for the future path of the cash rate had shifted up materially since the february meeting.
[2023-01-01] they noted that doing so would allow more time to assess the financial and economic effects of recent banking-sector developments and of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy.
[2023-01-01] the downward shift observed in the last few weeks could be explained by market participants expecting lower growth rates to feed into lower inflation rates, requiring less-pronounced interest rate inc
[2023-01-01] however, none of these explanations was fully borne out by financial market data.
[2023-01-01] inflation has been easing in most economies, as supply bottlenecks resolve and weaker demand relieves price pressures.
[2023-01-01] in the labour market, recent job gains have been below labour force growth and job vacancies have continued to ease.
[2023-01-01] looking at the evolution of longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area, signals of upside risks were observed both in market-based indicators and in surveys.
[2023-01-01] in particular, these comprised the implications of the incoming economic and financial data for the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmi
[2023-01-01] against this backdrop, and in consideration of the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, almost all participants agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target r
[2023-01-01] the s&p 500 stock price index increased sizably, on net, over the intermeeting period, led by technology-related stocks.
[2023-01-01] whereas private consumption had been very strong in the second and third quarters of 2022 as a result of the reopening of the euro area economy, the significant drop in the fourth quarter of 2022 refl
[2023-01-01] upward revisions to earlier data meant that nationwide housing prices were only slightly below their april 2022 peak.
[2023-01-01] nevertheless, participants judged that aggregate demand and aggregate supply continued to come into better balance, as a result of the current restrictive stance of monetary policy and the continued n
[2023-01-01] higher interest rates are moderating inflation in many goods that people buy on credit, and this is spreading to services.
[2023-01-01] at the same time, the view was also expressed that inflation risks had become balanced, as most analyses suggested that inflation was broadly evolving as projected, or that they had even moved to the
[2023-01-01] funding had become more expensive for banks, and average interest rates for business loans and mortgages had risen again in august, although rates on longer-term loans to non-financial corporations ha
[2023-01-01] they discussed the extent to which this should be interpreted as a signal that demand was weaker than previously assumed.
[2023-01-01] however, governing council is concerned that progress towards price stability is slow and inflationary risks have increased, and is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.
[2023-01-01] it would therefore be beneficial to explain that the analysis of underlying inflation pressures took a wide range of indicators into account and went well beyond core inflation.
[2023-01-01] in this context, it was argued that the current fiscal stance was out of line with the cyclical position of the economy.