yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2022-01-01] the higher volatility went hand in hand with a deterioration in market liquidity.
[2022-01-01] while its economic impact will depend on how quickly this wave passes, it is expected to be less severe than previous waves.
[2022-01-01] he started by noting that the economic shock from the russian invasion of ukraine came in the context of otherwise solid foundations for a strong recovery in the euro area this year.
[2022-01-01] inflation is being driven by rising energy and food prices and supply disruptions, in combination with strong global and domestic demand.
[2022-01-01] the bank projects no growth in the us economy through most of next year.
[2022-01-01] Clearly, businesses regarded such investments as highly profitable, and they appeared to be leading to gains in productivity that in turn were helping to offset rising compensation and to maintain pro
[2022-01-01] reference was made to the latest forward-looking survey indicators for economic activity, which had posted strong declines and were signalling a contraction.
[2022-01-01] As is evident in the right-hand chart, the relationship between the growth differential and capital inflows to EMEs seems to be quite strong.
[2022-01-01] that said, a number of state governments had offered lump-sum payments to some of their public sector employees, in part to offset higher living costs.
[2022-01-01] growth is expected to slow to about 2% in the third quarter as consumption growth moderates and housing market activity pulls back following unsustainable strength during the pandemic.
[2022-01-01] finally, members agreed with mr lane’s proposal to suspend the two-tier system for the remuneration of excess reserves by setting the multiplier to zero, since the two-tier system was no longer consid
[2022-01-01] in the united states, markets now assessed the chance of a rate hike at the federal reserve’s meeting in may 2022 as well over one in two.
[2022-01-01] As of this month, the maximum monthly reduction in the balance sheet will be nearly double the level of the previous cycle.10 Together, the increase in the policy rate and the reduction in the balance
[2022-01-01] As keen observers of local economies, the directors here and elsewhere contribute vitally to the formulation of monetary policy by offering important insights absent, by definition, from even the most
[2022-01-01] In addition, the May 1, 2019 trimmed mean measures of inflation did not go down as much.
[2022-01-01] In contrast, under a price-level-targeting scheme, continuing deflation combined with an upward-sloping path for the price-level target causes the size of the price-level gap to increase over time.
[2022-01-01] retail deposit rates had also increased, but by a smaller amount.
[2022-01-01] I look forward, as always, to my conversation with Tim, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framewor
[2022-01-01] So unless productivity accelerates further, its disinflationary effect should continue to erode for a time.
[2022-01-01] broader measures of spare capacity had also declined slightly over october, to remain around multi-decade lows, and the rate of participation in the labour force was close to its recent record high.
[2022-01-01] In addition, the median estimate of the longer-run normal unemployment rate moved down a tenth to 4.6 percent.
[2022-01-01] Without the accompanying boost to productivity, our progress toward price stability might well have been marked by the social pressures that arose in many previous episodes of disinflation both here a
[2022-01-01] at the time of the meeting, the euro was still down against the us dollar by more than 6% compared with a year ago and was trading close to its 2019 average.
[2022-01-01] nevertheless, uncertainty around the future path of policy rates had increased, also in the euro area, which had contributed to the rise in market volatility.
[2022-01-01] at the same time, businesses had suffered from high energy costs and continued supply bottlenecks, although the latter had been easing gradually.
[2022-01-01] however, in march 2022 household expectations regarding unemployment had increased visibly, albeit much less than at the start of the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic.
[2022-01-01] an additional growth plan announcement is scheduled to take place shortly after this mpc meeting, which is expected to provide further fiscal support, and is likely to contain news that is material fo
[2022-01-01] more than half of the components that make up the cpi are now rising by more than 5%.
[2022-01-01] Some Reasons for the Decline in Far-Forward Rates Why have the far-forward rates implied by the term structure of interest rates declined in recent years?
[2022-01-01] the risks to the growth outlook remained broadly balanced over the medium term.
[2022-01-01] The presidents' reports often include anecdotal updates from businesses or other sources to provide real-time information on regional economic activity.
[2022-01-01] such a path was seen as open to challenge in the light of various factors in energy markets pointing to more lasting upward pressures.
[2022-01-01] china’s economy is facing new covid outbreaks and an ongoing correction in its property market.
[2022-01-01] A widespread view that the Federal Reserve would take whatever steps were needed to hold down inflation over time probably had contributed to the persistence of subdued long-run inflation expectations
[2022-01-01] but it was also noted that the latest developments cautioned against simply extrapolating the very large impact that had been included in the september projections.
[2022-01-01] With the economy at full employment and inflation far above target, we should signal that we are moving back to neutral at a fast pace based on the performance of the economy, and a 50-basis point hik
[2022-01-01] this implied inflation above 2% for an extended period of time and raised the question of whether the deviations from the inflation target could still be described as “moderate” and “transitory”.
[2022-01-01] this included the effect of fixed interest rate loans rolling off over time.
[2022-01-01] We’re not seeing evidence in labor markets of very substantial upward pressures on labor that could signify extreme shortages of labor that could propel inflation higher in a very rapid way, and infla
[2022-01-01] according to market intelligence, real interest rates currently remained at levels that were supportive for growth and risk assets.
[2022-01-01] in particular, even a fundamentally sound sovereign could be brought to the brink of default owing to a self-fulfilling dynamic involving market participants demanding higher risk premia based on a fe
[2022-01-01] as well, oil prices have rebounded to well above pre-pandemic levels following a decline at the onset of the omicron variant of covid-19.
[2022-01-01] while the war and the associated amplified energy supply shock created an acute dilemma for monetary policy, there was value in keeping a steady hand and waiting before deciding on further adjustments
[2022-01-01] nevertheless, members agreed that the outlook for domestic economic activity had eased a little, with a key source of uncertainty relating to the response of households to rising inflation, higher int
[2022-01-01] These base effects will contribute about 1 percentage point to headline inflation and about 0.7 percentage point to core inflation in April and May.
[2022-01-01] In these circumstances, inflation pressures could be expected to remain subdued and some further disinflation might well occur.
[2022-01-01] the global recovery from the covid-19 pandemic is strong but uneven.
[2022-01-01] and while the effects on chinese exports had been modest to date, members noted that disruptions to goods production and distribution networks would become more evident if there were further outbreaks
[2022-01-01] neither had there been severe strains in money markets or liquidity shortages in the euro area banking system.
[2022-01-01] policy settings remained supportive of the recovery and national income had been substantially boosted by the large increases in commodity prices; it was likely that the terms of trade would exceed pr
[2022-01-01] for 2023, growth had been revised up, reflecting the expected fading of supply bottlenecks, the continued global recovery and an unwinding of accumulated savings.
[2022-01-01] members concluded their discussion of international economic conditions by taking stock of upside and downside risks to the global outlook.
[2022-01-01] members agreed that the australian economy had significant underlying momentum and inflationary pressures were pronounced.
[2022-01-01] members noted that, from october, the australian bureau of statistics would commence publishing a monthly cpi indicator, which would provide a timelier read on price pressures – though it could take s
[2022-01-01] for goods inflation, staff analysis showed that energy prices and bottlenecks accounted for about 0.8 percentage points and 1 percentage point of the increase respectively.
[2022-01-01] a sharp increase in fertiliser prices had raised concerns about rationing by farmers, which could depress agricultural output and sustain upward pressure on some food prices in the period ahead.
[2022-01-01] the board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 2.85 per cent.
[2022-01-01] compared with a yield target, a bpp provides more flexibility to respond to evolving economic circumstances, although it could entail larger financial costs.
[2022-01-01] In fact, it’s already—it’s already understood, I think, that—that there’s more—even though we’re at 3½ percent unemployment, there’s actually more slack out there, in a sense.
[2022-01-01] by the june monetary policy meeting there would be more information about the course of the war and its wider ramifications.
[2022-01-01] at the same time, the labour market had continued to perform well in the third quarter, with the unemployment rate remaining at the historically low level of 6.6% in august.
[2022-01-01] turning to the euro area economy, various indicators for the manufacturing sector showed a sharp slowdown, with the pmi new export orders index falling below the 50 threshold in june.
[2022-01-01] households' debt-to-gdp ratio remained relatively low, and there were few signs of increased stress among lower-income households.
[2022-01-01] a risk to the inflation outlook over the medium term was the possibility that price- and wage-setting behaviour would shift, resulting in domestic inflationary pressures becoming more persistent.
[2022-01-01] this suggested that, in addition to high energy prices, pressures from global bottlenecks due to strong demand for goods and inelastic supply had been passing through to consumer prices.
[2022-01-01] the governing council is resolute in its commitment to price stability and will continue to take action as required to achieve the 2% inflation target.
[2022-01-01] In any case, we, our job is to deliver price stability, and I think—you can think of price stability as an asset that just delivers large benefits to society over a long period of time.
[2022-01-01] growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in january and is likely to pick up in the second quarter.
[2022-01-01] At the same time, recent research on the science of monetary policy (as well as the analysis of several historical episodes) has underscored the pitfalls that can result from maintaining a zero or neg
[2022-01-01] the purchasing managers’ index (pmi) for both manufacturing and services at the global level continued to point to an ongoing recovery at the turn of the year.
[2022-01-01] a fuller plan for uk tax and spending was due to be published on 17 november in the autumn statement.
[2022-01-01] since the mpc’s previous meeting, indicators of financial market volatility had increased and advanced economy risky asset prices had fallen.
[2022-01-01] members noted that a full set of updated forecasts will be published in november following the release of the september quarter cpi.
[2022-01-01] however, the rollout of past commitments had been constrained by industry bottlenecks and there were risks of further delays owing to capacity constraints.
[2022-01-01] if that occurs, the economic cost of restoring price stability will be higher.
[2022-01-01] And we’ve seen significant outflows of capital from those countries, pressures on their exchange rates, and concerns about their performance going forward.
[2022-01-01] In 1951, the Treasury-Federal Reserve Accord freed the Fed from the obligation to support Treasury bond prices.
[2022-01-01] we have continued to analyze the effects of changes in interest rates, for example, on decisions like investment or car purchases.
[2022-01-01] consumption is robust, led by a rebound in spending on hard-to-distance services.
[2022-01-01] real gdp had grown by 0.3%, quarter on quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2021 (according to eurostat’s flash estimate) following a growth rate of 2.3%, quarter on quarter, in the third quarter.
[2022-01-01] And what we—it looks like we’re seeing a slowdown in the rate of growth.
[2022-01-01] the strength of the us dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries.
[2022-01-01] wholesale gas spot prices had initially fallen back in europe from their peak in mid-december, but had recently risen again amid increasing geopolitical tensions.
[2022-01-01] it was argued that market participants seemed to question the credibility of the governing council’s forward guidance, as they expected a first interest rate increase at a date that was difficult to r
[2022-01-01] real goods exports edged down in may after growing robustly in march and april.
[2022-01-01] persistent supply constraints are feeding through to a broader range of goods prices and, combined with higher food and energy prices, are expected to keep cpi inflation close to 5% in the first half
[2022-01-01] however, a sustained decline in inflation was expected in 2023, as global supply-side issues continue to be resolved, the recent declines in commodity prices work their way through to consumer prices
[2022-01-01] With underlying inflation running below 2 percent for many years and COVID contributing to a further decline, it is important that monetary policy support inflation expectations that are consistent wi
[2022-01-01] As always, my colleagues on the FOMC and I will act to foster our dual objectives of price stability and sustainable economic growth.
[2022-01-01] in the recent unprecedented circumstances, the economy had been subject to very large and repeated shocks.
[2022-01-01] although employment had risen by 0.4% in the second quarter and survey indicators of employment perceptions still suggested further growth in the third quarter of 2022, high-frequency indicators signa
[2022-01-01] if the same was now true in the opposite direction, it would be very difficult to re-anchor expectations once these had moved away from the target.
[2022-01-01] the purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing export orders had fallen into contractionary territory in march owing to the war in ukraine and lockdowns in china.
[2022-01-01] however, for 2023, the projected inflation rate was 4%, which was significantly below the 5.5% inflation rate included in the september staff projections.
[2022-01-01] with overall economic slack now absorbed, the bank has removed its exceptional forward guidance on its policy interest rate.
[2022-01-01] for the duration of the guarantee, this might have been expected to reduce the risk that a long period of externally generated price inflation led to more persistent domestic price and wage pressures,
[2022-01-01] These measures, along with our strong guidance on interest rates and on our balance sheet, will ensure that monetary policy will continue to support the economy until the recovery is complete.
[2022-01-01] china’s economy is being held back by waves of restrictive measures to contain covid-19 outbreaks.
[2022-01-01] I presented these estimates in my testimony to emphasize the continuing importance the profession attaches to NAIRU, the central tendency of current NAIRU estimates, and the absence of significant upw
[2022-01-01] pipeline pressures could take a long time to be transmitted to headline inflation, but one of the key uncertainties was that there could currently be a faster pass-through because of the scale of the
[2022-01-01] profitability had increased, partly because of growth in investment banking activity and lending.
[2022-01-01] most other measures of inflation expectations had remained elevated, particularly in the near term, although financial market indicators of medium-term inflation expectations were lower than their rec
[2022-01-01] Committee Policy Action Committee members saw the information received over the intermeeting period as suggesting that economic activity was expanding at a moderate pace.
[2022-01-01] however, this was very different from a scenario in which the euro area entered a prolonged period of negative growth.
[2022-01-01] this risk distribution suggested investors were concerned that the high uncertainty about the inflation outlook could mean the conditions of the ecb’s forward guidance might be met earlier than curren
[2022-01-01] I shall endeavor to place this most unusual phenomenon in the context of the broader changes in our economy and, hopefully, explain why the value of education, especially to enhance advanced skills, i
[2022-01-01] while the energy and supply bottleneck shocks were expected to have less of an impact, some catch-up in wages to recover the loss in real wages, on the back of a strong labour market, implied that cor
[2022-01-01] core measures of inflation have all moved higher as price pressures broaden.
[2022-01-01] it was also very important to look at the labour market, where the december projections were returning to the pre-pandemic path.
[2022-01-01] In the absence of such shocks, and assuming appropriate monetary policy, participants' economic projections generally showed growth picking up to a moderate pace and the unemployment rate declining so
[2022-01-01] the bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (qt), effective april 25.
[2022-01-01] the view was widely held that a change in the tltro iii conditions would reinforce the transmission of changes in the policy rates to bank funding costs and bank lending conditions for households and
[2022-01-01] The prices of their exports are lower than they would be if market forces were given greater scope in foreign exchange markets, and they are supplying more goods and services to the rest of the world
[2022-01-01] reviewing the demand components of gdp, the recovery in private consumption had been very strong until the third quarter of 2021, i.e.
[2022-01-01] at the time of the october meeting, market pricing implied that financial market participants applied around a 75 per cent likelihood of a 50 basis point increase in the cash rate and a 25 per cent li
[2022-01-01] the bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are not yet showing meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing.
[2022-01-01] it was common for these measures to move together, but recent movements in medium-term measures were nevertheless noteworthy, given that oil and gas futures curves were consistent with energy price in
[2022-01-01] in money markets, the 75 basis point increase in the target range at the july meeting passed through fully to overnight rates.
[2022-01-01] At the end of the day, we all benefit from plentiful jobs and stable prices, whether we are savers or borrowers--and many of us, of course, are both.
[2022-01-01] And that, I think, does raise, raise the risk that high inflation will be more persistent.
[2022-01-01] But because the United States has run persistent and sizable primary trade deficits since 1990, the net external debt is now 25 percent of GDP and rising sharply.
[2022-01-01] In fact, applying a formal regression analysis to the full sample from 1989 to 2002, we found a number fairly close to this one, namely, a stock price multiplier for monetary policy of about 4.7.
[2022-01-01] ten-year yields had fallen by around 20, 60 and 20 basis points in the united kingdom, united states and germany respectively.
[2022-01-01] a faster deceleration in global growth would also pose a risk to the euro area outlook.
[2022-01-01] members again considered two options for the size of the increase in the cash rate: a 25 basis point increase or a 50 basis point increase.
[2022-01-01] With tight labor markets and little slack in product markets, we are led to conclude that significant persistent strength in the growth of nominal demand for goods and services, outstripping the likel
[2022-01-01] over time, however, real incomes would be affected by higher prices and rises in interest rates; falling housing prices would dampen consumption as well as dwelling investment.
[2022-01-01] in this context, it was acknowledged that models estimated on historical data naturally had their limits in the face of unusual shocks and possible turning points or regime shifts.
[2022-01-01] members noted that most lenders had passed on the increase in the cash rate in full to existing variable-rate housing and small business borrowers.
[2022-01-01] elevated housing market activity continues to put upward pressure on house prices.
[2022-01-01] the bank now forecasts global growth of about 3½% this year, 2½% in 2023 and 3¼% in 2024.
[2022-01-01] a recession was becoming increasingly likely and would mitigate inflationary pressures.
[2022-01-01] in the established housing market, new listings in sydney and melbourne had picked up and prices had levelled off in recent months.
[2022-01-01] rising construction costs were expected to put a break on growth in housing investment.
[2022-01-01] credit remained generally available to businesses and households, but high borrowing costs appeared to reduce the demand for credit, resulting in lower financing volumes in some markets.
[2022-01-01] robust business investment, labour productivity growth and higher immigration will add to the economy’s productive capacity, while higher interest rates should moderate growth in domestic demand.
[2022-01-01] european countries are more directly impacted by confidence effects and supply dislocations caused by the war.
[2022-01-01] if instead deposit rates moved up in line with net yields on alternative investments, on rrp takeup could remain relatively steady.
[2022-01-01] this technical assumption had been one of the main reasons for forecast errors in the past.
[2022-01-01] But, certainly, we’ve had a lot of years in which interest rates have been low.
[2022-01-01] The productivity boom after the Civil War resulted from a variety of technological advances, including the expansion of and improvements in the use of steam power, railroad transportation, and communi
[2022-01-01] conduct overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 2.3 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day; the per-counterparty limit can be temporarily in
[2022-01-01] it was also recalled that the ecb’s strategy review in 2021 had confirmed that it targeted headline, rather than core inflation, as the relevant yardstick for monetary policy.
[2022-01-01] private sector financial conditions had tightened, but remained favourable overall.
[2022-01-01] As the economy approached full employment, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System, was faced with the classic problem of managing the mid
[2022-01-01] In the United States, Congress has set the objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act, as amended in 1977.
[2022-01-01] The number of black-owned firms increased nearly 50 percent and the number of Hispanic-owned firms jumped 80 percent between 1987 and 1992--between two and three times the rate of growth of non-minori
[2022-01-01] the bank of canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the bank rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%.