yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2021-12-15] Total nonfarm payroll employment rose solidly, on average, in October and November, but the average gain was below that seen in recent quarters. The unemployment rate declined from 4.8 percent in Sept
[2021-12-15] Brian J. Bonis, Etienne Gagnon,3 and Dan Li, Assistant Directors, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board; Paul Lengermann, Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Board
[2021-12-15] In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adj
[2021-12-15] Many participants judged that the appropriate pace of balance sheet runoff would likely be faster than it was during the previous normalization episode. Many participants also judged that monthly caps
[2021-12-15] Shaghil Ahmed, David Altig, Kartik B. Athreya, Brian M. Doyle,2 Rochelle M. Edge, Sylvain Leduc, Anna Paulson, and William Wascher, Associate Economists
[2021-12-15] Discussion of Policy Normalization Considerations Participants began a discussion of a range of topics associated with the eventual normalization of the stance of monetary policy. The topics included
[2021-12-15] The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and em
[2021-12-15] Short-term funding markets were stable over the intermeeting period. Throughout the period, the effective federal funds rate remained at 8 basis points apart from a brief decrease on the November mont
[2021-12-15] In light of elevated inflation pressures and the strengthening labor market, participants judged that the increase in policy accommodation provided by the ongoing pace of net asset purchases was no lo
[2021-12-15] In their consideration of the stance of monetary policy, participants reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's commitment to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy during this challenging t
[2021-12-15] David Andolfatto, Anne Baum, Todd E. Clark, Marc Giannoni, Mark L.J. Wright, and, Nathaniel Wuerffel,3 Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of St. Louis, New York, Cleveland, Dallas, Minneapo
[2021-12-15] It was agreed that the next meeting of the Committee would be held on Tuesday–Wednesday, January 25–26, 2022. The meeting adjourned at 11:00 a.m. on December 15, 2021.
[2022-01-01] a rebalancing of the distribution of the implied “tax” between workers and employers would take some time, in part depending on productivity developments, bargaining power and the ability of firms to
[2022-01-01] incoming wage data and recent wage agreements indicated that wage growth might be picking up.
[2022-01-01] it was therefore suggested that it was just a matter of time before wage growth caught up, in view of the large and persistent overshoot of the inflation target.
[2022-01-01] looking ahead, members voiced some nuances related to the appropriate pace of the gradual normalisation.
[2022-01-01] the point was made that declaring an end to the emergency might be considered premature given the current deterioration in the pandemic situation.
[2022-01-01] the us economy is growing robustly while growth in some other regions appears more moderate, especially in china due to current weakness in its property sector.
[2022-01-01] To achieve its mandated objectives, the FOMC must influence the course of the U.S. economy, helping it to grow rapidly enough to make full use of available resources but not so rapidly as to stoke inf
[2022-01-01] as economies slow and supply disruptions ease, global inflation is expected to come down.
[2022-01-01] it was evident that the war and the associated uncertainty were weighing heavily on business and consumer confidence.
[2022-01-01] As technical change increases demand for skilled relative to unskilled labor, the unskilled workers must acquire new skills, find new jobs at lower relative wages, or become unemployed.
[2022-01-01] And the maximum level of employment that’s consistent with price stability evolves over time within a—within a business cycle and over a longer period, in part reflecting [the] evolution of the factor
[2022-01-01] These are, you know, this is—this is the economy at nearly full employment or in the range—in the neighborhood of full employment.
[2022-01-01] in november, however, the components of the nominal retail sales data used to estimate pce stepped down, possibly reflecting some holiday sales having been pulled forward to october.
[2022-01-01] Largely as a consequence of rapidly expanding "new economy" investments, gains in productivity had occurred at remarkable rates in recent years.
[2022-01-01] Answering this question is central to our outlook for both of our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability.
[2022-01-01] market-based measures of long-term inflation compensation had declined from their decade-high level recorded in april but had started to rise again lately and remained above 2%.
[2022-01-01] the bank expects canada’s economy to grow by 3½% in 2022, 1¾% in 2023, and 2½% in 2024.
[2022-01-01] such a risk was considered as increasingly likely to materialise since hicp inflation was projected to stand above, and mostly far above, 2% for more than three years.
[2022-01-01] however, it was also pointed out that bank lending rates for firms and households had so far remained broadly insulated from the increases in market rates, and credit conditions did not currently sign
[2022-01-01] the rba index of commodity prices was around its levels at the beginning of the year, despite the decline in the price of iron ore.
[2022-01-01] the september 2022 ecb staff macroeconomic projections featured a significant upward revision to inflation in the period to the third quarter of 2023.
[2022-01-01] Well, you know, if the economy were disappointing, we—you know, our actions wouldn’t purely be based on inflation, we would also take employment into account.
[2022-01-01] the bank projects gdp growth will slow from 3¼% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024.
[2022-01-01] many households have built up large financial buffers and are benefiting from stronger income growth.
[2022-01-01] while global factors such as the war in ukraine and ongoing supply disruptions have been the biggest drivers, domestic price pressures from excess demand are becoming more prominent.
[2022-01-01] the effects of recent policy rate increases by the bank are becoming evident in interest-sensitive areas of the economy: housing activity has retreated sharply, and spending by households and business
[2022-01-01] Accordingly, considerable caution needed to be exercised in assessing the outlook for productivity and in relying on projections of the economy and prices, which necessarily embodied judgments about t
[2022-01-01] price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world.
[2022-01-01] on net, financial conditions eased modestly over the period but remained substantially tighter than at the start of the year.
[2022-01-01] In contrast, the rise in oil prices during the 1970s was probably seen at the time as largely reflecting a permanent shift in global demand/supply balances.
[2022-01-01] in consideration of all these arguments, the adjustment was therefore judged to be proportionate in the service of the governing council’s mandate.
[2022-01-01] the bank estimates that gdp grew by about 4% in the second quarter.
[2022-01-01] however, it was recalled that wages were a lagging indicator, and some doubts were expressed as to whether the still comforting picture provided by the experimental ecb wage tracker would hold up.
[2022-01-01] Implications for Monetary Policy The period from 1950 through the early 1980s provides two important lessons for managing the risks and uncertainties we face today.
[2022-01-01] there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate.
[2022-01-01] Indeed, economic growth abroad was widely viewed as dependent to a significant extent on the performance of the U. S. economy.
[2022-01-01] intelligence from the bank’s agents suggested that, although there had been some early signs of a slowing in underlying growth, demand had remained mostly robust and broadly in line with projections a
[2022-01-01] although payroll employment remained below its pre-pandemic level, the shortfall was concentrated in a few sectors and reflected a shortage of workers rather than insufficient demand for labor.
[2022-01-01] as policy stimulus is withdrawn, us growth is expected to moderate to a pace more in line with potential growth.
[2022-01-01] Indeed, in the interest of fostering a continuation of sustainable growth of the economy, it would be desirable to tighten before any sign of actual higher inflation were to become evident.
[2022-01-01] doubts were expressed as to whether, at the current juncture, relaxations on the supply side would be sufficient, and it was argued that a reduction in inflation would need to be driven mostly by a lo
[2022-01-01] the board decided to maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on exchange settlement balances at zero per cent.
[2022-01-01] Well, you’re certainly right that we have been over-optimistic about out-year growth.
[2022-01-01] that primarily reflected the very substantial rise in wholesale gas futures prices that had occurred since the may report, most recently due to russia’s restrictions of gas supplies to european market
[2022-01-01] overall, the bank projects global gdp growth to moderate from 6¾ % in 2021 to about 3½ % in 2022 and 2023.
[2022-01-01] In the September Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS), dealers indicated, on net, that they loosened credit terms applicable to several important classes of counterpa
[2022-01-01] consumer spending is strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures.
[2022-01-01] whole-economy average weekly earnings (awe) growth had increased to 5.4% in the three months to february on a year earlier, more than 1 percentage point above the february report forecast, reflecting
[2022-01-01] chinese equity prices had declined further over september, reflecting concerns about growth prospects in china.
[2022-01-01] the first was a change in investors’ assessment of the economic impact of the omicron variant.
[2022-01-01] In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term.
[2022-01-01] banks’ profits had recovered to levels seen before the pandemic, despite continued pressure on net interest margins.
[2022-01-01] the bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.
[2022-01-01] But, first, on inflation expectations, it is true that the breakevens from the inflation-adjusted—inflation-indexed bonds have come down.
[2022-01-01] economic activity will slow as global growth moderates and tighter monetary policy works its way through the economy.
[2022-01-01] at the same time, it was recalled that market-based inflation measures contained an inflation risk premium, which had turned positive.
[2022-01-01] full-time employment had risen strongly again in may, to be around 6 per cent higher than its pre-pandemic level.
[2022-01-01] the measures had actually declined since mid-june, with market participants expecting higher interest rates and lower economic growth.
[2022-01-01] it was then expected to decline to some way below the 2% target in years two and three of the projection.
[2022-01-01] the bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
[2022-01-01] attention was drawn to the widening of sovereign spreads over recent months.
[2022-01-01] in monthly terms, growth in credit to owner-occupiers had increased in late 2021, after easing over the preceding few months, while growth in credit to investors had continued to rise.
[2022-01-01] cpi inflation remains well above the target range and core measures of inflation have edged up since october.
[2022-01-01] banks' funding costs had begun to increase from historically low levels owing to the rise in market rates over preceding months and the increase in the cash rate in may.
[2022-01-01] strong global demand for goods combined with supply bottlenecks that hinder production and transportation are pushing up inflation in most regions.
[2022-01-01] in the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages.
[2022-01-01] participants commented that recent inflation data generally had come in above expectations and that, correspondingly, inflation was declining more slowly than they had previously been anticipating.
[2022-01-01] This was before inflation really was under control, but, you know, it’s very interesting to look at the history.
[2022-01-01] many central banks are tightening monetary policy to combat inflation, and the resulting tighter financial conditions are moderating economic growth.
[2022-01-01] the credit quality of municipal debt continued to be stable, as the number of bond upgrades outpaced downgrades, and defaults were relatively low.
[2022-01-01] this represented a downward revision of 0.5 percentage points for 2022, which was mainly due to the impact of the ukraine crisis on energy prices, confidence and trade.
[2022-01-01] the bank will use its monetary policy tools to ensure that higher near-term inflation expectations do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.
[2022-01-01] Long-term government bond yields declined and headline equity indexes increased, on net, in most of these countries, with bank stock prices in the euro area rising more than broader indexes.
[2022-01-01] What implications do these results have for our broader understanding and for the practice of monetary policy?
[2022-01-01] To be sure, financial market signals are noisy, and day-to-day movements in asset prices are unlikely to tell us much about the cyclical or structural position of the economy, let alone r* and expecte
[2022-01-01] Some also argue that resistance to nominal wage cuts will impart an upward bias to real wages as price stability approaches or outright deflation occurs, leaving the economy with a potentially higher
[2022-01-01] the largest downward revisions for growth among advanced economies were for the united states, where many forecasters expected a shallow recession.
[2022-01-01] the staff assessed that leverage in the financial sector remained moderate.
[2022-01-01] at the same time, it was argued that lockdowns in china had led to declines in the country’s imports of liquified natural gas, with dampening effects on gas prices.
[2022-01-01] in contrast, growth had been revised down by 1.2 percentage points for 2023 and by 0.2 percentage points for 2024, owing mainly to the impact of energy supply disruptions, higher inflation and declini
[2022-01-01] headline inflation in the euro area had exceeded headline inflation in the united states owing to much higher energy and food inflation.
[2022-01-01] most measures of underlying inflation had risen over recent months, but the persistence of the rise in these indicators remained uncertain owing to the indirect effects of higher energy prices and the
[2022-01-01] reference was made to the very useful large set of sensitivity analyses carried out by ecb staff in the context of the latest projections.
[2022-01-01] Any of these factors might imply that the equilibrium rate relevant for policy returns more quickly to, or even moves above, its long-run level as fewer forces weigh on aggregate demand.
[2022-01-01] in response to mounting concerns about developers pausing or abandoning development projects, the chinese authorities had put in place a number of measures to support the completion of projects.
[2022-01-01] there were some early signs that tighter lending conditions and a decline in credit demand were feeding through to lower lending volumes.
[2022-01-01] businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services.
[2022-01-01] nevertheless, monetary policy in the euro area was still expected to normalise at a measurably slower pace than in many other economies, as could be seen from the developments in foreign exchange mark
[2022-01-01] spreads on most types of longer-tenor commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit narrowed, reportedly reflecting reduced market concerns about the effects of russia's invasion of ukraine,
[2022-01-01] In the Committee’s discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.
[2022-01-01] nevertheless, the citi/yougov five-to-ten year ahead measure had matched its previous record high recorded in june 2011.
[2022-01-01] As stock prices soared in the 1990s, the share of equity holdings in household portfolios surpassed the share of owner-occupied housing.
[2022-01-01] with regard to the economic analysis, members expressed broad agreement with the assessment of the economic situation in the euro area and the risks to the outlook provided by mr lane in his introduct
[2022-01-01] In the United Kingdom, however, gilt yields declined and the pound weakened against the dollar in response to weaker-than-expected inflation data and to an upward revision by the Bank of England, at i
[2022-01-01] activity in china had rebounded in may following the relaxation of covid-19-related mobility restrictions and in response to ongoing policy stimulus.
[2022-01-01] What I have elsewhere referred to as "currency competition" may be a driving force behind these changes in inflation outcomes and expectations and may be reflected in low nominal long-term interest ra
[2022-01-01] moreover, the concern was raised that, if the governing council deviated from its earlier guidance and surprised markets with a larger than expected increase, this would add to the prevailing market u
[2022-01-01] What does this suggest about monetary policy strategy going forward?
[2022-01-01] the most recent indicators suggested that gdp growth had broadly stagnated in the third quarter of the year.
[2022-01-01] in the euro area, annual hicp inflation had increased to 7.5% in april, with core inflation at 3.5%.
[2022-01-01] future rate increases will be influenced by our assessments of how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations
[2022-01-01] But I have seen little direct evidence on the extent to which globalization may have boosted aggregate productivity growth in the United States in recent years.
[2022-01-01] the chair invited the committee to vote on the proposition that: bank rate should be increased by 0.25 percentage points, to 0.75%.
[2022-01-01] the credit quality of nonfinancial corporations remained generally strong, with low default rates for both corporate bonds and leveraged loans.
[2022-01-01] near-term inflation expectations have moved up, but longer-run expectations remain anchored on the 2% target.
[2022-01-01] in the united states, high inflation and rising interest rates are contributing to a slowdown in domestic demand.
[2022-01-01] once balance sheet runoff has ceased, reserve balances will likely continue to decline for a time, reflecting growth in other federal reserve liabilities, until the committee judges that reserve balan
[2022-01-01] And the way I would explain it is, is that inflation that’s too low will mean that interest rates are lower.
[2022-01-01] In the Committee's discussion of possible adjustments to policy during the intermeeting period, members agreed that the retention of an asymmetric directive toward tightening was consistent with their
[2022-01-01] the bank now expects global economic growth to slow to about 3½% this year and 2% in 2023 before strengthening to 3% in 2024.
[2022-01-01] In the United States, evaluating the effects on the economy of shifts in balance sheets and variations in asset prices have been an integral part of the development of monetary policy.
[2022-01-01] the point was made that in the public perception repeated underestimations of inflation were likely to be more problematic than overestimations, as the general public was typically less concerned if a
[2022-01-01] additionally, supply bottlenecks might prove more protracted than assumed in the baseline scenario.
[2022-01-01] With the economic outlook held constant, changes in the net demand for long-term securities have their largest effect on the term premium.
[2022-01-01] in the light of heightened uncertainty, it was nonetheless seen as wise to keep some two-sided optionality and a data-dependent approach, as it was too early to tell how events would unfold in the fol
[2022-01-01] these prices reflected a number of economic and geopolitical factors affecting the balance of demand and supply, as well as types of shock that could not have been foreseen.
[2022-01-01] in the united states, domestic demand remains very strong and the us federal reserve has clearly indicated its resolve to use its monetary policy tools to control inflation.
[2022-01-01] manufacturing pmis had been below 50 in august, in part driven by a drought in southern china that had been affecting electricity supply.
[2022-01-01] bank funding costs had risen in the past few months, which had increasingly fed into higher bank lending rates, in particular for households.
[2022-01-01] it was argued that the governing council should look through the current supply disruptions and keep a steady hand, while carefully monitoring any developments pointing to an unanchoring of inflation
[2022-01-01] mining investment had remained subdued despite the strength in commodity prices; however, a modest increase was expected over the forecast period, owing to sustaining investment for some major iron or
[2022-01-01] on the nominal side, following a series of unprecedented energy price shocks, headline inflation was now expected to average 5.1% and core inflation 2.6% in 2022.
[2022-01-01] supply bottlenecks continued to restrain global activity and trade.
[2022-01-01] near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched.
[2022-01-01] while the covid-19 virus continues to mutate and circulate, high rates of vaccination have reduced its health and economic impacts.
[2022-01-01] members observed that the unemployment rate had declined more quickly than expected, to 3.5 per cent in june – its lowest level in almost 50 years.
[2022-01-01] with strong employment growth, the labour market has tightened significantly.
[2022-01-01] global financial conditions have tightened and volatility has increased.
[2022-01-01] tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world.
[2022-01-01] however, if energy costs were to decline or demand were to weaken over the medium term, it would lower pressures on prices.
[2022-01-01] if, by contrast, inflation declined sharply throughout 2022 from its current high rates, this would provide reassurance on the inflation outlook.
[2022-01-01] So, up until the first week of October 2021, the story of high inflation being temporary was holding up, and the labor market improvements had slowed but were continuing.
[2022-01-01] inflation could be higher than anticipated over the next few months if the surge in energy prices intensified, especially if geopolitical tensions were to escalate further, if oil supply remained pers
[2022-01-01] the demand for goods and services is still running ahead of the economy’s ability to supply them, putting upward pressure on domestic inflation.
[2022-01-01] translating estimates of the neutral rate to a nominal interest rate involves adding inflation expectations.
[2022-01-01] Accordingly, much stronger growth in such investment could occur, with concomitant effects on incomes and the growth of overall spending.