yusufizzetmurat/fed-pulse-embedding-caches huggingface dataset:
[2020-01-01] the us dollar had depreciated significantly against the currencies of other advanced economies over recent months, including the australian dollar.
[2020-01-01] the role of government guarantee schemes for loans was also highlighted as underpinning loan growth, with some concern expressed about possible future “cliff effects” as such programmes expired.
[2020-01-01] this was illustrated by the fact that the latest projections now foresaw growth in global trade excluding the euro area of below 1% in 2020, compared with an increase of over 2% in the september 2019
[2020-01-01] as for cp and corporate bonds, the bank will maintain their amounts outstanding at about 2.2 trillion yen and about 3.2 trillion yen, respectively.
[2020-01-01] Monetary Policy But it is monetary policy--and the Fed's principal monetary lever, the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans of reserves between depository institutions--th
[2020-01-01] on the other hand, it needed to be emphasised that the baseline scenario for growth and inflation continued to be predicated on a highly accommodative monetary policy stance for a prolonged period of
[2020-01-01] this tightening was significantly less pronounced than the tightening seen at the time of the financial and sovereign debt crises between 2008 and 2012, which was a sign that the ecb’s measures (toget
[2020-01-01] this was expected to limit increases in unemployment in 2020 h2.
[2020-01-01] in the united states, gdp growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably.
[2020-01-01] the dynamics of loans to firms had remained strong in may, driven by firms’ operational financing needs, in an environment of compressed cash flows – but with substantial variation across countries.
[2020-01-01] high rates of corporate loan growth continued to mirror elevated liquidity needs of firms to finance their ongoing expenditures, such as wage payments and working capital, and to further build liquidi
[2020-01-01] these various responses were providing considerable support to australian households and businesses through this very difficult period.
[2020-01-01] This is the scenario from which we draw the lesson that timely, typically preemptive, policy restraint to avoid the excesses of a boom results in longer expansions and avoids unnecessary fluctuations
[2020-01-01] there are early signs that the reopening of businesses and pent-up demand are leading to an initial bounce-back in employment and output.
[2020-01-01] while the yield on 3-year ags had remained consistent with the target, it had been a little higher than 25 basis points over the preceding weeks.
[2020-01-01] one member said that, since the resurgence of covid-19 had a considerable impact on the face-to-face services industry, which held a large number of employees, attention on such impact was warranted.
[2020-01-01] the reversal was driven in part by a tighter spread between treasury bill yields and repo rates.
[2020-01-01] Households' longer-term inflation expectations also edged up in both November and December.
[2020-01-01] one of these members added that attention also should be paid to how an increase in financial institutions' provision of subordinated loans and the narrowing of spreads on these loans would affect the
[2020-01-01] the bank rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent.
[2020-01-01] as the economy moves from reopening to recuperation, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support.
[2020-01-01] on balance, consumer credit financing conditions did not appear to be a major drag on household spending.
[2020-01-01] We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people.
[2020-01-01] while activity in sectors such as hospitality and tourism was not likely to recover soon, in other sectors, such as it or online commerce, there had even been a positive demand shock.
[2020-01-01] in particular, these participants preferred forward guidance in which the target range for the federal funds rate remained at the elb until inflation had moved above 2 percent for some time.
[2020-01-01] regarding the outlook, members concurred that business fixed investment was likely to decelerate temporarily for the time being, mainly for machinery investment by manufacturing firms, due to the effe
[2020-01-01] one important factor behind the rally in global risk assets was related to positive global macroeconomic surprises – as reflected in the citigroup economic surprise index for advanced economies, which
[2020-01-01] at this meeting, all members judged that a further easing of monetary policy was warranted.
[2020-01-01] members agreed that, although the monetary policy stance was being left unchanged, communication was of particular importance at present.
[2020-01-01] they shared the recognition that business spending, such as business fixed investment, was expected to decrease, mainly in industries affected strongly by substantial declines in exports and consumpti
[2020-01-01] With appropriate firming in the stance of monetary policy, participants expected inflation to return to the Committee's 2 percent objective over time and the labor market to remain strong.
[2020-01-01] in the mild scenario produced by ecb staff, the downward impact on inflation in 2020 was assumed to be around 0.2 percentage points, while the impact in a severe scenario was expected to be between 0.
[2020-01-01] Since June, however, inflation fears have receded, and some financial-market participants have become less optimistic about the economy's near-term growth prospects.
[2020-01-01] These arguments imply that slack in labor markets remains considerable and therefore that a reduction in the unemployment rate toward its longer-run normal level would not have much effect on inflatio
[2020-01-01] given the strict movement restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the disease, labor force recovery after the lunar new year holidays had been sluggish.
[2020-01-01] one member expressed the recognition that, for the time being, the bank should maintain the current stance of monetary policy and carefully examine the positive effects and side effects.
[2020-01-01] at the same time, it was cautioned that in terms of the flow of information over the summer, it would be unusually difficult to extract signals about the medium-term prospects for the economy and the
[2020-01-01] So I don’t have a sense—the Committee doesn’t try to gauge what is the right level of equity prices.
[2020-01-01] household credit conditions were assumed to remain tighter over the november report forecast period than had been projected in august.
[2020-01-01] Nowhere, however, is the challenge to monetary policymakers greater than in emerging economies around the world.
[2020-01-01] Sargent, T. "Discussion of 'Policy Rules for Open Economics' by Lawrence Ball," in J.B. Taylor, ed., Monetary Policy Rules.
[2020-01-01] The resulting uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the future path of activity, unemployment, and inflation.
[2020-01-01] Smoothing through these variations, average monthly job growth appears to have stepped down from last year’s strong pace, but job gains remain well above the pace necessary to provide jobs for new lab
[2020-01-01] moreover, it was underlined that inflation remained below the governing council’s aim over the projection horizon, notwithstanding ample policy support.
[2020-01-01] Models of the term structure of interest rates better fit the data under the assumption that both inflation expectations and beliefs about the central bank's reaction function are evolving (Kozicki an
[2020-01-01] while labour cost pressures had remained resilient amid tighter labour markets, the weaker growth momentum was delaying their pass-through to inflation.
[2020-01-01] the yield on 3-year ags had remained at the target of around 25 basis points and market functioning had significantly improved for government bonds.
[2020-01-01] With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run infla
[2020-01-01] The U.S. economy is in a good place, and we will continue to use our monetary policy tools to help keep it there.
[2020-01-01] in light of the improved conditions, the staff proposed that the desk no longer be required to increase agency cmbs holdings or reinvest principal payments for agency cmbs.
[2020-01-01] the next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households.
[2020-01-01] point estimates are constructed by using values of 0, 0.5, 3, 8 and 15 for the respective categories.
[2020-01-01] however, it was generally felt that not acting at the present meeting could trigger a further tightening of financial conditions, to the detriment of the economic recovery.
[2020-01-01] Investor perceptions of a somewhat less accommodative tone of Federal Reserve communications, as well as the softer-than-expected reading for the April CPI, likely contributed to the decline in inflat
[2020-01-01] the governing council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the qe program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.
[2020-01-01] regarding the direction of the bank's monetary policy responses to recent developments, members concurred that it was appropriate for the bank to further enhance monetary easing, given that, due to th
[2020-01-01] these scarring effects on demand would be greater the longer that the current conditions of infection, restriction and uncertainty persisted.
[2020-01-01] The GDP (in real terms, after inflation) has been growing continuously for eight years and this long expansion, instead of petering out, has accelerated in the last couple of years.
[2020-01-01] the timing and pace of the recovery varies among regions and could be hampered by a resurgence of infections and the limited capacity of some countries to contain the virus or support their economies.
[2020-01-01] these actions would continue to help sustain smooth market functioning and would continue to help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and bus
[2020-01-01] But that has not—what, what happens is that when wages move up because unemployment is low, companies have been absorbing that increase into their margins rather than raising prices.
[2020-01-01] the bank is also continuing its quantitative easing (qe) program, with large-scale asset purchases of at least $5 billion per week of government of canada bonds.
[2020-01-01] in addition, one member said that, in order to encourage firms' efforts toward creating value-added, it was important to develop and enhance direct financing through, for example, creating a deep corp
[2020-01-01] export growth had been stronger than anticipated in april and may.
[2020-01-01] moreover, during the past year canadians have been saving a larger share of their incomes, which could signal increased consumer caution.
[2020-01-01] It was also noted that the weakness in homebuilding along with the continued rise in house prices suggested that supply constraints were also weighing on construction activity.
[2020-01-01] Market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low,
[2020-01-01] sources: bank of england, bloomberg finance l.p. and bank calculations.
[2020-01-01] inflationary pressures remained subdued in most foreign economies amid substantial economic slack.
[2020-01-01] despite this renewed weakness in activity, the euro-area unemployment rate, at 8.4% in october, had been only 1 percentage point above its 2019 q4 level.
[2020-01-01] members noted that when total returns – which include dividend payments – were taken into account, australian equities had performed similarly to equity markets in most other advanced economies, apart
[2020-01-01] For the United States, for example, the figure highlights the long run-up and subsequent fall in asset prices before the 2001 recession.
[2020-01-01] an upside risk to growth and to the labour market was seen as emanating from fiscal policy, as several governments had decided on, or were currently discussing, additional measures that were not incor
[2020-01-01] Misconceptions about Inflation Targeting I would like to turn now, briefly, to comment on a few key misconceptions about inflation targeting that have gained some currency in the public debate.
[2020-01-01] the bank’s agents’ score measures a different concept: firms’ expected change in headcount, which takes into account the number of employees leaving.
[2020-01-01] growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence.
[2020-01-01] In this case headline inflation will rise well above its underlying trend as the price of energy rises
[2020-01-01] although there had been increases in new covid cases in most european countries, mortality rates had so far remained low.
[2020-01-01] there was ample evidence that the euro area economy would have fared much worse without the policy stimulus from asset purchases.
[2020-01-01] several participants noted the possibility that there may be limits to the amount of additional accommodation that could be provided through increases in the federal reserve's asset holdings in light
[2020-01-01] A few participants pointed to continued strong growth in multifamily construction, although the limited pipeline of new projects in one District suggested that activity could slow in 2015.
[2020-01-01] core measures of consumer prices showed mixed changes on a twelve-month basis.
[2020-01-01] in the central scenario, the global economy overall shrinks by about 5 percent in 2020 and then grows by around 5 percent on average in 2021 and 2022.
[2020-01-01] In May, there was a notable rebound in employment and decline in unemployment, and these developments are certainly welcome.
[2020-01-01] in this context, it was recalled that macroprudential policies were the first line of defence for addressing risks and side effects, as they could be tailored to the issues identified.
[2020-01-01] The Federal Reserve takes into account the spillovers of higher interest rates, a stronger dollar, and weaker demand from foreign economies into the United States, as well as in the reverse direction.
[2020-01-01] it was acknowledged that the uncertainty about the impact of the pandemic crisis on potential output made real-time estimates of output gaps even more uncertain than in normal times.
[2020-01-01] though banks in the april sloos reported tightening standards on new consumer loans, respondents also experienced weaker demand for all consumer loan types.
[2020-01-01] one member pointed out that a rapid increase in unemployment and bankruptcy had been avoided and corporate financing seemed to have progressed; thus, it was appropriate to examine the policy effects f
[2020-01-01] This is yet another concerningly high reading, and it set another 40-year record high despite the expectation of many forecasters that inflation had peaked earlier in the year.
[2020-01-01] job creation has slowed and indicators of consumer confidence and spending have been unexpectedly soft.
[2020-01-01] according to a dividend discount model, the increase in euro area non-financial equity prices was mainly driven by declines in the equity risk premium on the back of a perceived improvement in global
[2020-01-01] moreover, the governing council stood ready to adjust all of its measures, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moved towards its aim in a sustained manner.
[2020-01-01] members noted that the australian banks were in a strong position to withstand the large economic shock from the covid-19 outbreak and financial market volatility.
[2020-01-01] in determining the future path for the bank’s policy interest rate, governing council will be watching closely to see if the recent slowdown in growth is more persistent than forecast.
[2020-01-01] it was also recalled that, while flexibility in the implementation of the pepp was essential to successfully ease market conditions in times of stress, the capital key provided the benchmark for the a
[2020-01-01] the bank is continuing its qe program and recalibrating it as described above.
[2020-01-01] I’m just saying, that, that is what fiscal policy can do that, really, monetary policy can’t do—is, is invest in the future productive capacity of the economy, raise potential growth.
[2020-01-01] as for the employment and income situation, one member said that deterioration in the employment situation had been evident, as seen, for example, in the number of employed persons not at work remaini
[2020-01-01] It is generally thought that monetary policy takes many months to have most of its effect on the growth of output and employment, while, of course, it has an immediate impact on financial markets.
[2020-01-01] the bank’s core measures of inflation have drifted down, although by much less than the cpi, and are now between 1.4 and 1.9 percent.
[2020-01-01] market contacts expected the mpc to extend its asset purchase programme at its june meeting.
[2020-01-01] however, the pace of the pick-up was expected to be only moderate for the time being while downward pressure stemming from covid-19 continued, mainly on face-to-face services.
[2020-01-01] Conversely, fiscal policy expansion in the surplus countries could be used to augment domestic demand, but any such adjustments would need to take account of medium-term goals for fiscal consolidation
[2020-01-01] So I, you know, I’m—I feel quite comfortable that we can—in particular, that we can raise interest rates at the appropriate time, even if the balance sheet remains large for an extended period.
[2020-01-01] since early june, the government has announced additional support programs, and extended others.
[2020-01-01] according to eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual hicp inflation had decreased to 0.1% in may, down from 0.3% in april, mainly on account of lower energy price inflation.
[2020-01-01] exports of capital goods had turned to a pick-up due to a global recovery in production activity and in demand for business fixed investment, mainly for machinery investment.
[2020-01-01] moreover, high economic uncertainty was triggering a shift towards money holdings for precautionary reasons.
[2020-01-01] survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
[2020-01-01] annual real gdp growth was projected to fall by 8% in 2020 and to increase by 5% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022.
[2020-01-01] There were more reports that rising wages and benefits and increasing costs of nonlabor inputs could no longer be fully offset by improvements in productivity, and more business firms appeared to be a
[2020-01-01] in canada, the rebound in employment and gdp was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer.
[2020-01-01] in particular, in the absence of further regulatory relief regarding the classification of loans as non-performing, a surge in corporate insolvencies resulting from the pandemic could lead to an incre
[2020-01-01] In December 1996, before my time at the Board, John Campbell of Harvard and Robert Shiller of Yale made a presentation at the Fed, in which they used dividend-price ratios and related measures to argu
[2020-01-01] In a nutshell, I believe that the factors of globalization, deregulation, and financial innovation, arising partly in response to episodes of high inflation, have effectively eroded the central bank m
[2020-01-01] the committee agreed a remote attendance procedure for mpc meetings during the period of the covid-19 outbreak in the united kingdom, should it be required.
[2020-01-01] survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.
[2020-01-01] Current Economic Situation and Outlook While the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken a tragic human toll measured in terms of lives lost and suffering inflicted, as a direct result of the necess
[2020-01-01] with economic activity in the second quarter estimated to have been 15 percent below its level at the end of 2019, this is the deepest decline in economic activity since the great depression, but cons
[2020-01-01] these actions have served to ease market dysfunction and help keep credit channels open, although they remain strained.
[2020-01-01] members noted that uncertainty about job losses had affected the demand for new housing, and building approvals had declined, particularly for apartments.
[2020-01-01] the federal reserve's balance sheet increased modestly over the intermeeting period to $7.2 trillion, as growth in securities holdings was partially offset by a decline in u.s. dollar liquidity swaps
[2020-01-01] looking ahead, additional information, including more hard data releases, new staff projections and news on fiscal measures, would become available by september.
[2020-01-01] wages growth could pick up faster than expected if labour market conditions tightened by more than expected.
[2020-01-01] it was fully prepared to increase the size of the pepp and adjust its composition, and potentially its other instruments, if, in the light of information that became available before its june meeting,
[2020-01-01] In these circumstances, I believe, it is appropriate to put greater weight on incoming data to determine whether the stance of monetary policy should be changed.
[2020-01-01] market participants expected the cash rate to be around 15 basis points for an extended period, a little above the 10 basis point deposit rate on exchange settlement balances.
[2020-01-01] however, along with a phased reopening of businesses, it was expected to pick up moderately, supported by various income support measures and demand stimulus measures.
[2020-01-01] market participants cited funding from the additional longer-term repo operations spanning year-end and increased capacity in daily operations as helping to maintain stable conditions in short-term fu
[2020-01-01] some lenders had reversed some of the tightening in the availability of housing finance that had occurred earlier in the pandemic, which had mostly reflected the application of existing credit standar
[2020-01-01] extra-euro area exports of goods had been stable as the negative contribution from asia was offset by the positive contribution from the united states, while intra-euro area trade had proved weaker, e
[2020-01-01] the disruptions to economic activity here and abroad had significantly affected financial conditions and had impaired the flow of credit to u.s. households and businesses.
[2020-01-01] The Federal Reserve’s enhanced guidance about its policy intentions and its substantial and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities will ensure that monetary policy remains highly accommod
[2020-01-01] in the united states, the federal reserve had operationalised a number of new facilities financed by the cares act.
[2020-01-01] conditions in unsecured short-term funding markets continued to improve over the intermeeting period, and spreads on most types of commercial paper and negotiable certificates of deposit narrowed to l
[2020-01-01] The Federal Reserve’s response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the financi
[2020-01-01] as a result, in the central scenario, real gdp declines by 7.8 percent in 2020 and resumes with growth of 5.1 percent in 2021 and 3.7 percent in 2022.
[2020-01-01] before turning to the policy decision, members reviewed the policy and academic discussions taking place around the world regarding the operation of macroeconomic policy and monetary policy frameworks
[2020-01-01] the extent to which gdp recovered would also be affected by developments in the economy’s supply capacity.
[2020-01-01] in addition to some positive developments in recent survey data, the citigroup surprise index was trending upwards and had been close to achieving positive values in recent weeks, while according to v