We consider the problem of reconstructing an epidemic over time, or, more general, reconstructing the propagation of an activity in a network. Our input consists of a temporal network, which contains information about when two nodes interacted, and a sample of nodes that have been reported as infected. The goal is to recover the flow of the spread, including discovering the starting nodes, and identifying other likely-infected nodes that are not reported. The problem we consider has multiple applications, from public health to social media and viral marketing purposes. Previous work explicitly factor-in many unrealistic assumptions: it is assumed that (a) the underlying network does not change; (b) we have access to perfect noise-free data; or (c) we know the exact propagation model. In contrast, we avoid these simplifications: we take into account the temporal network, we require only a small sample of reported infections, and we do not make any restrictive assumptions about the propagation model. We develop CulT, a scalable and effective algorithm to reconstruct epidemics that is also suited for online settings. CulT works by formulating the problem as that of a temporal Steiner-tree computation, for which we design a fast algorithm leveraging the specific problem structure. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach through extensive experiments on diverse datasets.
The closest in the area of reconstructing epidemics over time has been done in REF where the authors use Steiner trees to infer the propagation structure.
Reconstructing an Epidemic Over Time
KDD '16
Computer Science