Bibliometric measures of individual scientific achievement are of particular interest if they can be used to predict future achievement. Here we report results of an empirical study of the predictive power of the h-index compared to other indicators. Our findings indicate that the h-index is better than other indicators considered (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count) in predicting future scientific achievement. We discuss reasons for the superiority of the h-index.
The predictive power of the h index has been empirically compared with other indicators (total citation count, citations per paper, and total paper count), and it has been shown to be better than other indicators in predicting future scientific achievement REF ).
Does the h-index have predictive power?
Proc.Nat.Acad.Sci. vol. 104, 19193 (2007)
Mathematics Medicine Physics