The lack of predictability of citation-based measures frequently used to gauge impact, from impact factors to short-term citations, raises a fundamental question: is there long-term predictability in citation patterns? Here we derive a mechanistic model for the citation dynamics of individual papers, allowing us to collapse the citation histories of papers from different journals and disciplines into a single curve, indicating that all papers tend to follow the same universal temporal pattern. The observed patterns not only help us uncover basic mechanisms that govern scientific impact, but also offer reliable measures of influence that may have potential policy implications.
REF used parameters from the citation history of a paper to quantify long-term scientific impact (total number of citations during its lifetime).
Quantifying Long-Term Scientific Impact
Science 4 October 2013: Vol. 342 no. 6154 pp. 127-132
Medicine Economics Computer Science Physics