Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing spacetime patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.
The work in REF investigates 10 cities in five countries and finds that the risk of residential burglary is temporarily increased for at least two weeks within a 200-m radius around burgled residences.
Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Psychology