[Windows Mobile Development and Hacking General] pjcforpres:
antrak:

I understand what you are saying about marketing and all of that. The success of the iPhone is largely due to marketing and familiarity. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, brands and locks down their technology like Apple does. And the branding they gave the iPhone was ease of use, speed, and customization out of the box.

WinMo devices don't have that as easily out of the box. Overall, you can do more with a WinMo device than an iPhone, but it takes more to get the WinMo device to do it.

And it has been my experience, with WinMo and BB as my only 2 smart phone platforms, that the more tech savvy people go with the WinMo device, and those looking for a simpler more straight forward out of the box experience go with the BB.

At the OP:

Yes, I am saying that in the long run, WinMo will be the overall leader. Just as you see Windows based PCs as the dominant computer in the market, you will see WinMo devices as the dominant smart phone in the market. The only drawbacks WinMo has can be fixed rather easily... The lack of speed is something this community has already addressed and fixed. My TyTN II flies! The touch friendliness is being address as we speak, with Touchflo from HTC and TouchWiz from Samsung and WinMo 6.5/7.0 from Microsoft. I believe that Microsoft coming up with the solution is more likely, and is more important than for HTC or Samsung or some other company to come up with their own UI solution. Also, fingers crossed, better graphics drivers would go a long way in helping out WinMo devices, especially HTC devices.

Also, note that WinMo syncs up much better with all those home PC's than any other platform. People looking to get a smart phone are buying them with the idea that they can use the phone in place of their computer for many regular day tasks. I use my TyTN II to manage the small business I am starting up, my work emails, my schedule, school work, and so much more.

I also have a BB Pearl, and as much as I loved it's simplicity, it wasn't powerful enough or integrated enough with my home PC to cut it. BB is great at making a rock solid idiot proof smart phone that allows you to communicate with ease, and they are doing more for multimedia. But BB is approaching it's limitations as it is an 'os' inside and OS.

WebOS looks amazing, and I am sure it will run amazing as well. Palm does good work, for the most part, but they are similar to BB. The new WebOS is a step above, and will have a higher ceiling than BBs current ceiling for future ability. But it is still going to fall short of WinMo, Android, etc. in long term totality because it is too isolated, just like BB.

The advantages WinMo, and the iPhone as well, have over everyone else is that they have full computer based OS backing them up. WinMo has Windows PCs, the iPhone has Macs. As Apple develops the iPhone OS more and more, it will sync better and better with Macs, and do more and more.

As Android handsets become more plentiful, the development will pick up pace, and it will gain a following, especially with Google backing them. And their is the potential they will sync up multiplatform better than anyone else just because they are open source.

WinMo will gain in out of the box speed and UI friendliness. It will probably be a year for WinMo 7.0 to come out and catch up in speed and UI. But WinMo is already ahead of the game when it comes to everything else. Just look at the market and what is available for WinMo devices compared to the other OS.

WinMo will always sync better with Windows PCs than any other OS. As Apple works on it, the iPhone will sync better with Macs than any other OS. And as time goes on, technology advances, and so forth, the smart phone market will follow the home computer market. WinMo will be the leader, Apple will be second, and the others will still hold on to the market, but they won't ever eclipse WinMo and Apple once the market settles.

Basically, I see the smart phone market as a developing market right now. I don't think today’s numbers and trends are very significant when you are trying to size up long term trends. I believe long term trends, and business school agrees here, will follow several factors, specifically for smart phones those work out like such:

1. Usability: This has to do with speed, UI ease of use, and compatibility with other technologies.

2. Price: The more expensive, the less likely it is to "boom" or "tip" or any of those nice catch phrases.

3. Stickiness: Aka, cool factor, fun factor, hip factor, everyone must have it factor.

I see WinMo, in the long term, leading all others when it comes to usability, as it is a familiar platform that will sync better with already established technologies. It will also be competively priced, except for BB, I don't believe anyone else is as cheap. And stickiness... well the iPhone has that right now, but with proper marketing and better UI, WinMo will catch back up. And FYI, I believe sticky wise it goes 1.iPhone 2. BB Curve 3. G1 4. HTC of sort.

I am rambling and all over the place a bit by now, and since I am not going to edit, I will recap to bring it all together.

Based on my personal experience with WinMo and BB, as a salesman and an end user, as well my knowledge of the market, I believe WinMo devices have the brightest future. Of course, WinMo devices have to overcome their out of the box lack of speed and UI friendliness, but I don't see those as insurmountable obstacles. Rather, I see those as all the more reason to focus on the WinMo platform, as there is going to be a demand for talented programmers capable of achieving that goal, as well, capable of taking advantage of the wide breadth of abilities that WinMo has.