[Huawei Developers] ask011:
"And then even the mightiest company is in trouble if it has not worked on the future."

- Peter Drucker

The soaring growth of the mobile Internet brings both a trend of homogeneity in products and fierce competition. Analyzing users with session path analysis allows you to tap into the value of your users and guide their conversion in the lifecycle.

HUAWEI Prediction anticipates user behavior in advance based on user behavior data, helping you make smart and quick decisions.

1. What is custom prediction?

In our previous posts, we introduced some prediction tasks provided by Prediction. So, what's special about the custom prediction task? Simply put, custom prediction tasks can be used in multiple scenarios.

User churn and payment is an important factor to determine whether a product can be monetized successfully, which is a key concern during product operations. You may also take into consideration other in-app events and their conversion nodes, such as the click-through rate of an in-app ad, or the probability of a player passing a game level. With the help of custom prediction tasks, you can evaluate the probability of user behavior.

Sourced from diversified data reported by your app, and similar to the preset prediction tasks, a custom prediction task uses the active user data from the previous two weeks to train a model, which then predicts the probability that active users from the previous week perform a certain behavior over the next week.

2. Method for starting a custom prediction task as required

Different operations solutions apply to different industries and scenarios. For example, an e-commerce app wants to attract more users and for users to add products to their shopping carts or tap an ad on the home screen, and a game app may want to know the probability of a player passing a level or consuming coins and items.

This post takes game apps as an example for evaluating the probability of a player passing a level using the custom prediction.

To achieve this, your app needs to report game level completion events. First, sign in to AppGallery Connect, click My projects, find your app, go to HUAWEI Analytics > Behavior analysis > Event analysis, and create a COMPLETELEVEL event, which is a preset event. Then mark it as a conversion event, go to Prediction, and create a custom prediction task. After you have selected the COMPLETELEVEL event, click OK.

Currently, you can create custom prediction tasks for automatically collected events, preset events, and custom events in HUAWEI Analytics in the same way.

3. Use cases of custom prediction task results

Since we have introduced the creation of a custom prediction task, let's see how its result can help with your business growth.

From the detailed result, it can be seen that the number of users predicted to have a low probability of completing the game level share a similar location and app version. To solve this problem, you can release different app versions for different countries and regions. Alternatively, you can develop an operations plan to improve the audience's experience and aim to turn them into paid users.

* The screenshot is from the custom prediction details page of HUAWEI Prediction. The data is for reference only.

Your game can recommend improved equipment and game coins to these players, as well as increase the probability of them making in-app purchases. By guiding the players to complete payments, you can turn minnows into dolphins and, eventually, whales.

Implementing this method couldn't be simpler. Prediction can work with AppGallery Connect Remote Configuration without you having to do extra coding.

On the Remote Configuration page in AppGallery Connect, you can choose to display item recommendation pop-ups just to players who are less likely to complete the game for promoting payment conversions. You can also attract players by setting a time limit on a discount for game coins. When your prediction task is updated, its audience is also updated, allowing you to reach target players without disturbing other players.

To learn more about HUAWEI Prediction, feel free to check out this document.