[Off-topic] mark manning:
The problem is your math is very flawed which is surprising from someone that claims to know math the way that you do. But it is also a common mistake from many that haven't taken the time and done enough research to properly construct an accurate math projection. I am not saying any of this to pick on you but rather to educate you.

I pay very close attention to the news about the virus and yes, there are definitely a significant amount of cases we don't know about, which is primarily due to lack of testing, but official estimates are nowhere the numbers you have above.

As of writing this, the US has 11,689 and rising by the hour. That doesn't seem like very many but just 10 days ago we had about 680 cases. Every 2.5 cases rise exponentially. That means in 2 weeks' time (assuming current trends continue) the US will have around 67,000 known cases. and in 3 weeks 100,800 and these are extremely conservative numbers due to the number of different cities and states seeing outbreaks simultaneously. We are prob looking at 250,000 to 500,000 infection in a month's time unless quarantine efforts begin to flatten the curve. The reason this happens is that 1 people think like you and don't take it seriously and 2 people spread the virus unknowingly due to mild or no symptoms.

Another reason your math is flawed is the average time from first symptoms to death is roughly 14 days and up to 28 days. Therefore comparing the current number of deaths to the current cases amount is an extremely inaccurate way to get a perceived death rate. Official estimates are around a 3.5% death rate but it is very hard to know for sure just like you said above. If you look at Italy, their death rate is around 7% currently and they have one of the best health systems in the world. I read a report today, that doctors at one hospital stopped counting the dead bodies.

Italy is a peek into the future if people in the States don't take this seriously. About 1 in 20 cases, no matter your age, and 1-10 or less for older folk develop serious to critical symptoms. Under normal circumstances, those cases should all be cured but they do take around a month to fully heal. The problem that we will face very soon is health systems being overrun just like they are in Italy. Italy doctors are having to choose who lives and dies via triage protocols. While it is true the older you are the worse it can be, but that doesn't mean younger people are not at risk. France as of about 5 days ago had 300 critical cases for people under the age of 60. I am sure that number has since risen just like every other number. So in a month and a half's time, we are looking at 25 to 50 thousand ICU cases or roughly 50% of capacity if it was even distributed (which it won't be).

The 2 biggest problems the US is facing right now is denial and a bunch of people thinking they are smarter than the professionals. Let's put it this way...

The CDC estimates somewhere between 200,000 and 2.1 million dead with 500,000 being the most probable by the time this is over. That is assuming containment efforts fail of course. This means you WILL know people who have died as our morgues fill up. To put this in perspective, 30,000 people died in the US last year from the flu. But hey, you're good at math so you know better than the virologists and epidemiologists even though you seemed to fail to understand exponential math while doing your calculations.

Oh, and uh, by the way, currently younger people have a large portion of ICU cases from the coronavirus in the US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...zations-united-states-according-new-cdc-data/