[General Topics] ahmadcentral:
Hi guys,

I wanted to share some data with you that you won't be able to find anywhere else. I hope you all find it useful.

This report covers the global smartphone market for the first half of FY2014-15 which runs from April 1st through to September 30th. I have made sure the data used in this report is as accurate as possible and even included a number of data points that are not available publicly.

0.	Global Market - 628.9m

A total of 628.9m smartphones were shipped between April 1st and September 30th this year. This is a 25% increase over the same period last year when a total of 501.7m smartphones were shipped. Smartphone shipments are set to continue growing and in the same period next year we should see over 750m smartphones shipped. Android held the largest share this half year with approximately 525m Android devices shipped. This is equal to around 84% market share. Apple shipped a total of 74.5m iOS devices in H1 giving them a total of just under 12% market share. Windows Phone was the third biggest OS with a total of ~18m shipments which gives them around 3% market share. Around 95% of all Windows Phone shipments were Lumia branded devices, around 29% of all Android smartphones were Samsung branded devices.

1.	Samsung - 152.4m

Samsung was the biggest smartphone vendor once again with 152.4m smartphones shipped during H1 FY2014-15. This gives Samsung an overall 24% market share which is down from the 32% market share that Samsung had during the same period last year. Samsung has seen increased competition in China where a number of local Chinese brands have taken over, In Europe where price consciousness is starting to grow and even in the USA where Apple is putting up a fight. Although Samsung has long relied on its high-end devices, its mid-range and low-end models drove volume for the quarter and subsequently drove down ASPs. Samsung was the only company to lose significant market share out of the big 5. During H1, Samsung sold in a total of 29m Galaxy S5 units worldwide and Galaxy S4 cumulative sales have now reached over 65m.

2.	Apple – 74.5m

Apple was the second largest smartphone vendor in H1 with a market share of 12%. During the same period last year, Apple sold in a total of 65m giving them a 13% market share at the time. Despite growing this year, it’s clear that Apple are not growing at the same rate as the smartphone market and therefore are expected to drop to under 10% market share before the end of 2015. Apple launched the iPhone 6 in the final month of H1 and sold in 10 million units during the opening weekend. The iPhone 5s sold in 39.5m units in CY2013 and Apple are expecting to ship more than 50m units of the iPhone 6 in CY2014. So far, Apple has sold in over 600 million iPhones since launch in 2007*.

*As of October 2014

3.	Lenovo/Motorola – 50.3m

After acquiring Motorola, Lenovo is now the third biggest smartphone manufacturer in the world with an 8% market share. When looking at separate numbers for H1 FY2014-15 we can see that Lenovo sold in 32.7m units and Motorola sold in 17.6m units. Lenovo are aiming for another 50 million units during H2 to reach over 100 million cumulative units shipped by March 31st 2015. Lenovo has found success in emerging markets such as Africa, Middle East, Asia and its home country of China where it has released a number of low cost 4G handsets. Motorola has seen success in western markets but has started to tap into a number of emerging markets such as South America.

4.	Huawei – 37.1m

Huawei have done very well this year gaining a 6% market share with over 37 million units shipped. This can be attributed with Huawei’s push with 4G LTE devices and brand promotion across all markets. The Huawei Ascend P6 has sold in more than 5 million units since launch, the Ascend P7 has sold in more than 3 million units and the Honor 6 has sold in over 2 million units. Huawei’s latest flagship phone, the Ascend Mate 7 has sold in 1 million units in China and Huawei are planning to sell in a further 600,000 units this month to the EMEA region. Around 35% of the phones shipped during H1 support 4G LTE and Huawei’s mobile device business has grown by 62% YOY. Huawei plan to ship over 60 million smartphones in CY2014.

5.	Xiaomi – 35.0m

Xiaomi have come out of nowhere to become the fifth largest smartphone manufacturer worldwide. If you look at Motorola and Lenovo’s figures separately then Xiaomi would in fact be the fourth largest manufacturer. Not many people know who Xiaomi are as over 90% of their shipments are to China with the remaining 10% being sold in to emerging markets such as India and south east Asia. Xiaomi have yet to tap into the western market but it looks like they don’t need to as they’ve grown rapidly in the past year. During the same period last year Xiaomi barely scratched 10 million units. This year their shipment number has more than tripled. Xiaomi are aiming to ship 60 million units in CY2014 and 100 million units in CY2015. Xiaomi are set to overtake Huawei in terms of cumulative shipments this financial year.

6.	LG Electronics – 31.3m

LG saw smartphone shipments increase by 30% YOY during H1 FY2014-15. This is thanks to the launch of the LG G3 and the L Series smartphones. The G3 itself has sold in more than 7 million units worldwide with over 1 million allocated to South Korea alone. LG plan to ship 60 million smartphones during CY2014. North America will be the biggest contributor to LG this year where shipments have grown by around 40%. LTE smartphones are up by over 100% YOY.

7.	Coolpad – 24.4m

Coolpad are a smartphone brand in China. Despite the fact they only ship in China they are the 7th largest smartphone manufacturer in the world. In China they are leading the way in 4G smartphone shipments after launching over 12 new 4G models this year. Coolpad won’t ever reach the same shipment numbers that other Chinese manufacturers like Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei will get to because they ship domestically whilst the others rely on the international market for increased sales.

8.	ZTE – 21.5m

ZTE are a Chinese brand who sell a number of low end devices and rebranded devices in the UK. They were once on par in terms of shipments with Huawei but Huawei have expended massively thanks to their international expansion, ZTE are still yet to grow massively outside of Asia. But Asia is still enough to give ZTE the 8th position in terms of worldwide shipments.

9.	TCL – 19.6m

Many of you may not have heard of TCL, over here in the west they are known as Alcatel and they are becoming a major brand worldwide this year thanks to their “One Touch” series. During H1 they shipped a total of 19.6m which is a 130% increase from 8.5m during the same period last year. TCL has seen the biggest revenue increase in the Americas region and is on track to sell in over 35 million smartphones this fiscal year. What many people don’t know is that TCL is actually massive when you combine their smartphone + feature phone shipments, only 53% of their total shipments are smartphones. That means that TCL have already shipped 40 million smartphones + feature phones this Half year.

10.	Sony – 19.3m

Sony is not in the best of places. They were committed to selling in 50 million smartphones for FY2014-15 but after looking at H1 results it looks like it won’t be possible. The Z series smartphones have been very popular for Sony but not popular enough to increase sales significantly YOY. In fact sales are actually around 300,000 less than they were during the same period last year. Sony has reduced its forecast to just 41m for FY2014-15.

Honourable Mention: Microsoft – 17.0m

After acquiring the Lumia brand, Microsoft hasn’t been able to break the top 10 with a total of 17.0m units sold in during H1 FY2014-15. The Lumia brand accounts for around ~95% of all Windows Phone smartphones and so it can be seen that Windows Phone hasn’t taken off yet. Growth has stagnated YOY and no one is expecting Windows Phone market share to grow at all. Windows Phone will always be that “third place” OS.

Others-

-	Blackberry sold in over 4 million smartphones worldwide during H1 FY2014-15. This is down compared to the almost 6 million sold in during the same period last year. Blackberry has increased active BBM users to over 90 million despite falling shipment numbers. This can be attributed to the launch of the free BBM application on Android/iOS last year.

-	HTC are not to be seen on the top 10 list anymore. In CY2013 they sold in over 23 million units and in CY2014 they are expected to sell in over 20 million units this calendar year. HTC has sold in more than 5 million units of its flagship M8 handset.

-	Oppo plan to ship over 20 million smartphones in CY2014 after shipping 15 million in CY2013.

-	Asus are planning to ship 8 million units worldwide in CY2014. In H1 FY2014-15 they have shipped a total of 3.6m units.

-	Acer are planning to increase shipments to 5m units worldwide in CY2014

-	One Plus, the new Chinese smartphone brand has shipped 500,000 units of their flagship smartphone worldwide.

Active smartphone install base:

There is now over 2 billion active smartphone users worldwide. Android accounts for 75% with 1.5 million active smartphone users, Apple accounts for 375 million, Windows Phone accounts for 60 million smartphone users and Blackberry has 40 million. The other category accounts for over 30 million.

Conclusion

It’s all about China. Xiaomi, Lenovo, Huawei, Coolpad, ZTE and TCL are all looking to ship between 35m-100m smartphones this calendar year. Samsung and Apple’s market share is continuing to shrink but all major Chinese manufacturers continue to grow year on year, Xiaomi being the best example to use with over 300% growth. Doesn’t mean to say Samsung and Apple are going anywhere soon, they will continue to be the top 2 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lenovo overtake Apple in 2016 and Samsung eventually lose its first place position in a few years. What is certain Is that the cumulative number of smartphones being sold in by Chinese manufacturers is going to continue growing significantly and they will have majority market share by 2015.

All data is sourced by me either through public Industry reports or private Industry sources. I have over 3 years experience in the telecommunications industry and have access to a number of data points.