[One (M7) General] BarryH_GEG:
Here's the harsh reality and best possible outcome for HTC. Their stock is at an all-time low and the rapid sell-off of it triggered a halt in their trading (twice) in the past thirty days on the TW exchange. That happened because HTC’s CFO dropped their guidance for Q1 2013 on an analyst's call basically saying the DNA/Butterfly, the world's first 5" 1080P smartphone, won't meet sales expectations; sales expectations that HTC themselves set. And this was also after the One was announced with great hope and fanfare. Their financial situation is so perilous the TW government is already discussing a bail out.

Flash forward. HTC has staked their entire future on a single device, the One. Separately, they are trying to ramp up in emerging markets but, because they unwisely clung to their "premium" image, they were late and with the wrong product mix. Samsung just this past month became the number one seller of smartphones in China exceeding ZTE, Oppo, Lenovo, and Huawei, the local players. Behind the One, making inroads in China is HTC’s second “Hail Mary” to try and reverse their fortunes.

Let's talk about HTC's expectations for the One. HTC has not met guidance they've provided in the past four quarters with revenue, profit, and margins all well off from their projections. Their guidance for FY 2013, if the One's successful, would put them back to 2011 levels which isn't anything to celebrate. Here's what their CEO said in this WSJ article:

" '2013 will not be too bad,' Chou told the WSJ. "Our competitors were too strong and very resourceful, pouring in lots of money into marketing. We haven’t done enough on the marketing front." Probably not the most inspiring words HTC's shareholders could hear, but due to competition and admittedly dropping the ball on marketing, it might be the best the new CEO can hope for. However, considering the firm's financial figures, marketing may be the least of its worries."​

On the analysts call in February that sent their stock plunging their CFO said they won't be increasing their marketing budget in 2013 which doesn't jive with their CEO saying marketing was one of their issues in 2012. And handing out hot beverages to the media at competitors launch events and slamming them via Twitter and FB isn't "marketing." That, and "their competitors being too strong" which is acknowledging HTC was weak without providing any detail of what they planned to do differently outside of launchng yet another another "flagship" and slogging it out in emerging markets after being last to arrive.

So for 2013 HTC’s bet the farm on an all-aluminum design, 4.7" display, dual speakers, a trick lock screen, a different camera, and Zoe. Samsung and LG have both invested heavily in user-centric s/w features while HTC hasn't. Other flagships will have 5" displays (including HTC's own DNA/Butterfly) and the One won't. So the masses are going to have to choose what their priorities are to buy the One and outside the aluminum design and dual speakers the rest are subjective except the missing s/w features which, whether anyone here thinks their meaningful, resonate with the masses. That's why LG's done this.

LG already offers several special apps on its Android smartphones, like QSlide for viewing two apps at once on a device's display and QRemote for controlling home entertainment gear. Today LG expanded is software offerings with another new feature dubbed "Smart Video." According to LG, Smart Video takes advantage of eye recognition technology to track a user's eye movements while he or she is watching a video and, when it detects that user isn't looking at the device's display, it will pause the clip automatically. Playback will resume when the device detects that the user is once again looking at the screen. LG says that Smart Video will be rolled out soon as part of a Value Pack update. In addition to Smart Video, the Value Pack will include a Dual Camera feature that will take photos using the front and back cameras simultaneously, Magic Remote Keypad and Text Keypad additions to the QRemote app, Video Pause/Resume that will allow users to stop and start while capturing a video to create one continuous clip, and a set of color emoticons. The Smart LED Lighting surrounding the LG Optimus G Pro's physical home button will also be updated to allow users to assign colors to specific contacts.​

So with competitors focusing on s/w, HTC's placed all their eggs in the h/w basket by focusing on “design.” The exceptions are BlinkFeed and Zoe with Sense itself only receiving a minor facelift.

You guys are expecting a miracle while HTC's CEO is hoping for a 2013 that "isn't too bad" and their sales projections reflect about a two-fold improvement over their 2012 sales. If HTC meets its 2013 guidance and the One sells as they are expecting it'll prove to the financial community they have a chance to turn themselves around. If the One doesn't meet their expectations in all of Q2, Q3, and Q4, even if it sells better than the One X, their stock will fall to levels that will require the TW government to step in and that will most likely include installing a new Board and senior management team. The latter might not be a bad thing based on HTC's abysmal financial performance. So the best possible outcome HTC’s expecting is for the One to sell more than the One X, One XL, One S, and One V combined last year and have no “Plan B” if it doesn’t.

Let us pray.

Here's a transcript (PDF) of the analyst's call in February where HTC talks about their future expecations if anyone wants to read it.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9NDkyNDUxfENoaWxkSUQ9NTMwMTIyfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

And here's their stock performance over the past 90 days which includes the announcement of the One.