[One (M7) General] BarryH_GEG:
Everything you're saying is true. But comparing unchecked bad lending practices and abuse of complex derivatives to HTC's current situation isn't the same thing. HTC's a public company and everything they do is disclosed in quarterly and annual reports. Their latest stock crash was caused by what they told analysts on their Q4 2012 earnings call in February. I understand everyone wanting to take an optimistic view and look for the best in what's reported or to discredit the negative. But reality is reality and the numbers HTC's been providing themselves are so scary there's little an analyst could do to make them worse.

Here’s what HTC said in their last earnings call when providing Q1 2013 guidance that spooked everyone. And Q1 was supposed to be better than previous quarters because of the full benefit of the Butterfly/DNA launch which much ado was made about because it was the industry's first release of a 1080P smartphone. So basically they lowered guidance by dropping revenue (sales) and reducing gross and operating margin (profit) the latter of which is already well below the rest of the industry. I've yet to see one (non-product related) article this year on HTC that's in any way positive about their future prospects.

"At an investor conference Monday, HTC projected its sales for the first quarter at between NT$50 billion and NT$60 billion, compared with NT$60 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2012. HTC also estimated its gross margin for the first quarter at 21-23 percent and its operating margin at between 0.5 and 1 percent, compared with a 23 percent gross margin and 1 percent operating margin in the October-December period. Based on HTC's latest guidance, the smartphone vendor will likely post earnings per share of less than NT$1 in the January-March period, down from NT$1.21 in the fourth quarter, the analyst said."​

http://focustaiwan.tw/ShowNews/WebNews_Detail.aspx?Type=aALL&ID=201302050006

This is the most optimistic coverage on them I've found and even it says a hugely successful launch for the One would bring their earnings per share back to just over half (NT$40) of what it was a year ago (NT$73.32). A mediocre reception for the One could drop their earnings to half (NT$10) of what they currently are projecting for 2013 (NT$20). And with HTC guiding that earnings per share in Q1 are going to be just NT$1 they have a lot of ground to make up in the three following quarters to get to NT$10, better yet the NT$20 they’ve told analysts to expect for the full year. And by they themselves guiding at earnings per share of $20 for 2013 that says a lot about their own expectations and still would leave them down 85% from their performance a year before assuming they achieve their targets of which the One is pivotal to.

"HTC’s global smartphone ranking dropped to eighth in the fourth quarter, from fourth six quarters prior, as Asian rivals offer a mix of cheaper and more-advanced devices to consumers from Europe to Asia. With its stock down more than 70 percent since a peak in 2011, success of HTC One will be key to whether profit can rebound after five quarters of decline.

“This [the One] is their most important product for the year and will determine whether earnings double or halve in 2013,” said Lu Chia-lin, who rates the stock hold at Daiwa Securities Group in Taipei. “They’re already in a vicious cycle of failed launches leading to lower brand awareness which hurts future releases.”

HTC posted earnings per share last year of NT$20.16, down from NT$73.32 a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A successful product release could boost EPS to NT$40 this year, while a “mediocre” device may see it fall to NT$10, Lu said by phone.

Its shares fell 0.7 percent to NT$280 as of 10:09 a.m. in Taipei today, taking its decline this year to 6.8 percent compared with a 4.2 percent gain in the benchmark Taiex index. This year’s decline follows a 40 percent drop last year and a 42 percent slide in 2011." ​

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...shes-media-in-bid-to-reverse-sales-slump.html