[Samsung Galaxy Nexus] martonikaj:
I'll tend to agree with most of what you said.... Apple has this down to a T with releasing OS versions. Everyone with the previous 2 versions of the hardware is completely guaranteed to get the update the day that it comes out. Models 3 years ago may or may not get a full update, but they'll at least get a partial update (with some features pulled). You know what you're getting and you know when you're getting it. You'll never be in limbo. When Apple announces a new iOS version, they explicitly say which models will get it. The consistency is good.

WP7 is a bit better analogy of what Android has to strive for IMO. Android covers tons of carriers, devices, etc. but still needs to be able to handle pushing OTAs to everyone in a timely matter. This is a huge logistical hurdle for MS (or Google) to try jump. MS is handling it by putting very strict guidelines on what hardware can be used and what you can/can't do to the software (which is pretty much nothing). This makes the OTA process a 1000 times easier for MS to implement. What it leads to is basically knowing that the OTA update will work on all of these different devices because they're about 90% identical in hardware, and 99% identical in software. The only hurdle for them is pretty much getting carriers to accept the terms of pushing the OTA.

While Google could implement a system like this, it'd be at least a year out. Because in order for this MS-style system to work, Android would have to have specific hardware and software guidelines. The problem being that Android is open source and free, and manufacturers can really do whatever they want. They only have to follow some very relaxed "guidelines" to get GAPPS. Even if Google wanted to push OTAs to all of these phones in their current state they couldn't. Google doesn't hold the code from Samsung, HTC, LG, Huawei, and others because they're each doing it in house. There is no unifying OTA that can be pushed. Ultimately Google has no say in what happens after they certify it for GAPPS support. At that point, its between the manufacturers and carriers what is going to happen.

Google needs to start hitting manufacturers where they can, with GAPPS. Its the only closed-source part of Android and its a really really important one. They need to start forcing UI guidelines and skinning policies that let OTAs flow smoother. On the carrier side, they need to start pushing carriers to allow manufacturers to push them when its ready. Google can only do so much to carriers though. At that point they can threaten, but again its not up to Google what happens with those devices once the licenses go out. Its not a Google sale to the carrier, its a manufacturer sale. Until every phone Google sells is a Nexus, they won't be able to tell carriers what to do. Although the market share is huge for Android, it doesn't have the same unified push to bully carriers like Apple has.

....but I've got a couple other points as well on your post. You're making it sound like the Galaxy Nexus is running 4.0.2, and the rest of devices are running/being sold with 4.0.3 (the "stable" build). This is not the case. Whether its running the most "stable" build or not, the GNex is the most up to date of all Android phones out there right now. And we'll be getting stock 4.0.3 before anyone, and all of those phones being sold from this point w/ 4.0.3 will have skins attached as well.